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000
FXUS61 KBTV 290551
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1251 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN COLD TEMPERATURES AND
CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO IN THE COLDER
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS TO UPPER TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A WARM
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING BY AFTERNOON. A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 921 PM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH LINGERING NRN MTN SHSN/FLURRIES SLOWLY
COMING TO AND END LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME NATURAL VARIABILITY STARTING TO CROP UP IN HOURLY
T/TD OBSERVATIONS...BUT A QUICK LOOK AT FORECAST OVERNIGHT MINS
STILL APPEAR MOST REASONABLE OUT OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SO LEFT
THOSE VALUES UNCHANGED. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...KEEPING BULK OF LIGHT SNOWS/MIXED
PCPN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH NEARLY ALL MODEL RH/OMEGA PROGS AND MOS OUTPUT.
STILL LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PCPN TOMORROW
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOWEVER SO PLEASE REFER TO PRIMARY SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW DESCRIBING DYNAMICAL FORCING/REASONING ETC. HAVE
A GREAT NIGHT.

PRIOR NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FROM 628 PM EST FRIDAY...
FORECAST REMAINS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK AS OF EARLY EVENING.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND T/TD DATA TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN WANE/END.
POTL BUST ON TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT GIVEN FRESH SNOW COVER AND
CLEARING SKIES...BUT WARM THERMAL ADVECTION- DRIVEN MID CLOUDS
ARRIVE LATE SO TOUGH CALL. VALUES RANGING FROM 5-15 ABOVE WITH A
FEW UNLUCKY SPOTS AROUND ZERO STILL LOOK REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY..A LARGE SWING IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FROM
A COLD MORNING ON SATURDAY TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG LLVL WAA/FGEN FORCING FROM 850 TO
700MB...GOOD RIBBON OF RH >80%...AND SOME 5H ENERGY WL PRODUCE A
BAND OF SNOW ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WITH QPF <
0.10". USING THE RH FIELDS AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGGS
PLACES THE SNOW BAND ACRS THE SOUTHERN SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z-
21Z SAT...INTO THE NORTHERN DACKS AND CPV AROUND 00Z SUNDAY...AND
IMPACTING CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z-06Z SUNDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW
GOOD RH/OMEGA AND FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ALL INTERSECTING EACH
OTHER...SUPPORTING BIG FLAKE SIZE. EXPECTING ONLY A 1 TO 3 HOUR
WINDOW OF PRECIP LATE SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WARM FRNT FEATURE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN -8C AND -10C ON
SAT...BUT WARM TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS LLVL WAA COMBINED
WITH INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS WL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING
OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUNDAY...WITH COLDEST READINGS IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WHERE THE COLD AIR REMAINS
TRAPPED. WL MENTION HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO L30S ON
SATURDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NEK/EASTERN VT
TO NEAR 30F CPV/SLV...WITH TEMPS WARMING TWD 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS WL
INCREASE SHARPLY AFT 00Z SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MTN SUMMITS
ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TO 850MB JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...HELPING TO
ADVECT THE WARMER AIR INTO OUR CWA.

FOR SUNDAY...THICKNESS AND LLVL TEMPS INCREASE QUICKLY UNDER BOARD
SW FLW...WHILE BEST 850 TO 500MB RH IS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN SFC AND 850MB ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH WEAK UVVS FIELDS...SO THINKING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WL BE LIKELY...WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BTWN 1800 FEET
AND 2500 FT THRU 18Z SUNDAY...BEFORE ENTIRE THERMAL PROFILE WARMS
ABOVE 0C. ALSO...HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR COLD
AIR TO GET TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF VT ON SUNDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. ICE
ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ANTICIPATED
ATTM. TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTN WL WARM INTO THE 40S SLV/CPV WITH
MID/UPPER LVL NEK/MTNS. A VERY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS....AHEAD OF SHARP SFC BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WL
INCREASE THE CHCS FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AFT 06Z...ALONG WITH
FALLING TEMPS ACRS NORTHERN NY TWD 12Z MONDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRNT THRU 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A WEEK OF FAST-CHANGING
WEATHER. 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IN DECENT AGREEMENT UP TO WEDNESDAY,
THEN THE GFS AND ECMWF GO THEIR OWN WAY. HAVE STUCK WITH A BLEND
FOR MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, AND LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AFTER
THAT. RAMBLING THOUGHTS FOR EACH DAY ARE BELOW:

MONDAY: SHARP COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE MORNING (IF NOT A BIT EARLIER). ASSUMING WE`VE GOT
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CORRECT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 6AM-10AM, AND THEN FALL. SO EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST
WORDS MAY SAY "HIGH OF 40", THE REALITY IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S! COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND JUST BEHIND IT AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT, BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. INITIALLY RAIN SHOWERS, BUT WILL
TURN QUICKLY TO SNOW SHOWERS -- AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON BE FOCUSEDMORE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PERHAPS A DUSTING IN LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND AN INCH OR SO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VERY PROGRESSIVE/FAST
FLOW PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE DOES HAVE IT`S SOURCE IN
FAR NORTHWEST CANADA AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -18C. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 0F TO +15F RANGE HERE AT GROUND LEVEL. BY THE WAY, THE
PRESSURE IN THE CENTER OF THAT HIGH WILL BE ABOUT 1044MB (30.82").

TUESDAY: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH TO OUR EAST, BUT
KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER US FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE, HIGHS EVERYWHERE WILL
BE SUB-FREEZING. PERHAPS JUST MID 20S FOR THE "WARMER" VALLEYS.
THIS IS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. IN GENERAL, WE`LL
PROBABLY SEE A QUICK FALL OF TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EVENING AND
THEN STEADY/SLOW RISE LATER AT NIGHT. TIMING OF THE RETURN FLOW
THIS FAR OUT IS QUITE DIFFICULT, SO JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLEND FOR
LOWS. SO GENERALLY 10-20F, COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
RATHER HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURE BUSTS IN THIS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY: LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OF 40-50KT DEVELOPING. THIS
STRONG JET WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT -- AND THUS MAKE FOR
ISSUES WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. LIKED THE ECMWF DEPICTION OF THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (925MB TEMPERATURES +1 TO +3C BY 18Z), AND
THUS EXPECT INITIAL BOUT OF LIGHT SNOW TO TURN INTO A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SLEET BEFORE TURNING INTO A BOUT OF LIGHT RAIN.
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PARTS OF
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE COLD AIR REMAINS STUCK IN VARIOUS NOOKS AND
CREVICES. SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF COLD AIR DAMMING DOWN ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. ALL OF THIS TRANSITION SHOULD HAPPEN IN 6-8 HOURS
TIME. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE CHAMPLAIN & ST LAWRENCE
VALLEYS WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS
FROM FULLY MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THOUGH THIS WILL BE A MIX OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/3", SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANYTHING MAJOR. THE "WARM UP" WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE FAST MOVING
LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH. THUS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING. ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL END AS SNOW.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE, LIKED THE ECMWF SOLUTION OVER
THE GFS. IN THIS SCENARIO, ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG (BUT ONLY 1035MB
THIS TIME) HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS IN AND PUSHES THE COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH. LEADS TO A DRY THURSDAY, AND MOST OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER
WITH THE HIGH PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, OUR FLOW AGAIN
TURNS SOUTHERLY AND STARTS BRINGING UP THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON, I DID PUT IN SOME
LOW POPS (20-30%) AND PAINTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TO CONTRAST,
THE GFS NEVER PUSHES THAT WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT TOO FAR AWAY. THE
HIGH IT BRINGS IN FOR THURSDAY IS TO OUR NORTH, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNNING THE FRONT RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (IN THE FORM OF A WINTER MIX) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THERE WAS NOT ANY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN, SO WHAT THAT ALL MEANS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...BUT CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE VFR THROUGH
01Z SUNDAY. TRENDING OVERCAST THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER 01Z SUNDAY. MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE LIGHT. CARRIED 5-6SM -SHSN FOR ALL TAF SITES AT THIS POINT.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE PROVIDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO
START THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOCALIZED CHANNELING IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL BRING SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15-18 KTS WITH
GUSTS 25-30 KTS AT BTV AFTER 03Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR DURING SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE AREA
06-12Z MONDAY COULD BRING MVFR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...PERHAPS
ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MONDAY MORNING (BEST
CHANCE OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AT SLK/MPV MONDAY MORNING).
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRINGING GENERALLY VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. NEXT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS 06Z WED THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...BANACOS



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000
FXUS61 KALY 290535
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1235 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW...AS A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION.  MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SHOW A
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MEANWHILE...SKY COVERAGE IS RATHER CHAOTIC AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS
WAS ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH STRATOCU FROM LAKE ONTARIO.
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...CLR-PTCLDY SKIES WITH
MOCLDY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS.

THE LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN TRICKY...AS THE GFSMOS VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE METMOS VALUES. WE CONTINUE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES...AND A SHADE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH...AND 5-10 DEGREES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...THE H500 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA...AS H850 TEMPS RISE TO -1C TO
-4C BY 00Z/SUN. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY MOVE INTO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNSET. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND MAINLY
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TOUGH PART OF THE FCST WHERE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARMING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
PA...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU FROM THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST QG FORCING FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OVER
THE NRN ZONES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF -FZRA AND/OR -IP IN THE FCST
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT COULD HANDLE THE VERY LIGHT MIX...BUT WE WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO WITH THE SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL
BE RISING...AND MODEL QPF FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY 5 HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND WAS
USED IN THE FCST...AS DONE BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO L30S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION WITH ANY SPOTTY MIXED PCPN EARLY ON TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AS
H850 TEMPS POP UP TO +3C TO +5C...AND SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH SOME U40S ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE OR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
INTO THE FCST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY...AND THE BETTER CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID AND U30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON MONDAY. NOT THAT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SO POPS HAVE ONLY BEEN FORECAST IN THE 30
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT MONDAY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

THE COLDER AIR WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP
TO LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS.

FAIR BUT COLD TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH...SO THE
CHANCE OF PCPN WILL LINGER INTO AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS EVEN
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF PCPN. HAVE FOLLOWED NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND THEN A CHANCE OF PCPN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

MILDER AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. A LITTLE COLDER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT 20 TO 30.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF SITES
WITH JUST FEW-SCT STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND. THESE CLOUDS ARE LEFT OVER
FROM LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE MVFR AT KPSF DUE TO BKN-OVC
STRATOCU CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO KPSF BY 09Z...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE OTHER SITES. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE VALLEY TAF SITES...WITH W-NW WINDS AROUND 6 KTS AT KPSF.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY...AND VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LIGHT SE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 5 KTS.

MOST SITES LOOK TO SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS BECOMING BKN-OVC BY
EVENING...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWERING ON SAT NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX
FOR BY LATE SAT NIGHT FOR ALL SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 290535
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1235 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW...AS A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION.  MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SHOW A
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MEANWHILE...SKY COVERAGE IS RATHER CHAOTIC AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS
WAS ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH STRATOCU FROM LAKE ONTARIO.
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...CLR-PTCLDY SKIES WITH
MOCLDY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS.

THE LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN TRICKY...AS THE GFSMOS VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE METMOS VALUES. WE CONTINUE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES...AND A SHADE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH...AND 5-10 DEGREES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...THE H500 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA...AS H850 TEMPS RISE TO -1C TO
-4C BY 00Z/SUN. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY MOVE INTO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNSET. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND MAINLY
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TOUGH PART OF THE FCST WHERE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARMING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
PA...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU FROM THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST QG FORCING FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OVER
THE NRN ZONES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF -FZRA AND/OR -IP IN THE FCST
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT COULD HANDLE THE VERY LIGHT MIX...BUT WE WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO WITH THE SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL
BE RISING...AND MODEL QPF FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY 5 HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND WAS
USED IN THE FCST...AS DONE BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO L30S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION WITH ANY SPOTTY MIXED PCPN EARLY ON TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AS
H850 TEMPS POP UP TO +3C TO +5C...AND SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH SOME U40S ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE OR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
INTO THE FCST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY...AND THE BETTER CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID AND U30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON MONDAY. NOT THAT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SO POPS HAVE ONLY BEEN FORECAST IN THE 30
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT MONDAY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

THE COLDER AIR WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP
TO LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS.

FAIR BUT COLD TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH...SO THE
CHANCE OF PCPN WILL LINGER INTO AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS EVEN
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF PCPN. HAVE FOLLOWED NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND THEN A CHANCE OF PCPN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

MILDER AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. A LITTLE COLDER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT 20 TO 30.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF SITES
WITH JUST FEW-SCT STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND. THESE CLOUDS ARE LEFT OVER
FROM LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE MVFR AT KPSF DUE TO BKN-OVC
STRATOCU CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO KPSF BY 09Z...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE OTHER SITES. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE VALLEY TAF SITES...WITH W-NW WINDS AROUND 6 KTS AT KPSF.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY...AND VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LIGHT SE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 5 KTS.

MOST SITES LOOK TO SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS BECOMING BKN-OVC BY
EVENING...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWERING ON SAT NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX
FOR BY LATE SAT NIGHT FOR ALL SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KBTV 290221
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
921 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN COLD TEMPERATURES AND
CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO IN THE COLDER
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS TO UPPER TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A WARM
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING BY AFTERNOON. A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 921 PM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH LINGERING NRN MTN SHSN/FLURRIES SLOWLY
COMING TO AND END LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME NATURAL VARIABILITY STARTING TO CROP UP IN HOURLY
T/TD OBSERVATIONS...BUT A QUICK LOOK AT FORECAST OVERNIGHT MINS
STILL APPEAR MOST REASONABLE OUT OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SO LEFT
THOSE VALUES UNCHANGED. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...KEEPING BULK OF LIGHT SNOWS/MIXED
PCPN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH NEARLY ALL MODEL RH/OMEGA PROGS AND MOS OUTPUT.
STILL LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PCPN TOMORROW
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOWEVER SO PLEASE REFER TO PRIMARY SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW DESCRIBING DYNAMICAL FORCING/REASONING ETC. HAVE
A GREAT NIGHT.

PRIOR NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FROM 628 PM EST FRIDAY...
FORECAST REMAINS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK AS OF EARLY EVENING.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND T/TD DATA TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN WANE/END.
POTL BUST ON TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT GIVEN FRESH SNOW COVER AND
CLEARING SKIES...BUT WARM THERMAL ADVECTION- DRIVEN MID CLOUDS
ARRIVE LATE SO TOUGH CALL. VALUES RANGING FROM 5-15 ABOVE WITH A
FEW UNLUCKY SPOTS AROUND ZERO STILL LOOK REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY..A LARGE SWING IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FROM
A COLD MORNING ON SATURDAY TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG LLVL WAA/FGEN FORCING FROM 850 TO
700MB...GOOD RIBBON OF RH >80%...AND SOME 5H ENERGY WL PRODUCE A
BAND OF SNOW ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WITH QPF <
0.10". USING THE RH FIELDS AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGGS
PLACES THE SNOW BAND ACRS THE SOUTHERN SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z-
21Z SAT...INTO THE NORTHERN DACKS AND CPV AROUND 00Z SUNDAY...AND
IMPACTING CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z-06Z SUNDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW
GOOD RH/OMEGA AND FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ALL INTERSECTING EACH
OTHER...SUPPORTING BIG FLAKE SIZE. EXPECTING ONLY A 1 TO 3 HOUR
WINDOW OF PRECIP LATE SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WARM FRNT FEATURE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN -8C AND -10C ON
SAT...BUT WARM TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS LLVL WAA COMBINED
WITH INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS WL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING
OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUNDAY...WITH COLDEST READINGS IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WHERE THE COLD AIR REMAINS
TRAPPED. WL MENTION HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO L30S ON
SATURDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NEK/EASTERN VT
TO NEAR 30F CPV/SLV...WITH TEMPS WARMING TWD 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS WL
INCREASE SHARPLY AFT 00Z SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MTN SUMMITS
ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TO 850MB JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...HELPING TO
ADVECT THE WARMER AIR INTO OUR CWA.

FOR SUNDAY...THICKNESS AND LLVL TEMPS INCREASE QUICKLY UNDER BOARD
SW FLW...WHILE BEST 850 TO 500MB RH IS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN SFC AND 850MB ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH WEAK UVVS FIELDS...SO THINKING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WL BE LIKELY...WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BTWN 1800 FEET
AND 2500 FT THRU 18Z SUNDAY...BEFORE ENTIRE THERMAL PROFILE WARMS
ABOVE 0C. ALSO...HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR COLD
AIR TO GET TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF VT ON SUNDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. ICE
ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ANTICIPATED
ATTM. TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTN WL WARM INTO THE 40S SLV/CPV WITH
MID/UPPER LVL NEK/MTNS. A VERY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS....AHEAD OF SHARP SFC BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WL
INCREASE THE CHCS FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AFT 06Z...ALONG WITH
FALLING TEMPS ACRS NORTHERN NY TWD 12Z MONDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRNT THRU 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A WEEK OF FAST-CHANGING
WEATHER. 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IN DECENT AGREEMENT UP TO WEDNESDAY,
THEN THE GFS AND ECMWF GO THEIR OWN WAY. HAVE STUCK WITH A BLEND
FOR MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, AND LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AFTER
THAT. RAMBLING THOUGHTS FOR EACH DAY ARE BELOW:

MONDAY: SHARP COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE MORNING (IF NOT A BIT EARLIER). ASSUMING WE`VE GOT
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CORRECT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 6AM-10AM, AND THEN FALL. SO EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST
WORDS MAY SAY "HIGH OF 40", THE REALITY IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S! COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND JUST BEHIND IT AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT, BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. INITIALLY RAIN SHOWERS, BUT WILL
TURN QUICKLY TO SNOW SHOWERS -- AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON BE FOCUSSED
MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PERHAPS A DUSTING IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND AN INCH OR SO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VERY
PROGRESSIVE/FAST FLOW PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE DOES
HAVE IT`S SOURCE IN FAR NORTHWEST CANADA AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -18C. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 0F TO +15F RANGE HERE AT GROUND LEVEL. BY THE
WAY, THE PRESSURE IN THE CENTER OF THAT HIGH WILL BE ABOUT 1044MB
(30.82").

TUESDAY: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH TO OUR EAST, BUT
KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER US FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE, HIGHS EVERYWHERE WILL
BE SUB-FREEZING. PERHAPS JUST MID 20S FOR THE "WARMER" VALLEYS.
THIS IS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. IN GENERAL, WE`LL
PROBABLY SEE A QUICK FALL OF TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EVENING AND
THEN STEADY/SLOW RISE LATER AT NIGHT. TIMING OF THE RETURN FLOW
THIS FAR OUT IS QUITE DIFFICULT, SO JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLEND FOR
LOWS. SO GENERALLY 10-20F, COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
RATHER HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURE BUSTS IN THIS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY: LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OF 40-50KT DEVELOPING. THIS
STRONG JET WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT -- AND THUS MAKE FOR
ISSUES WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. LIKED THE ECMWF DEPICTION OF THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (925MB TEMPERATURES +1 TO +3C BY 18Z), AND
THUS EXPECT INTIAL BOUT OF LIGHT SNOW TO TURN INTO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SLEET BEFORE TURNING INTO A BOUT OF LIGHT RAIN. CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PARTS OF EASTERN
VERMONT WHERE COLD AIR REMAINS STUCK IN VARIOUS NOOKS AND
CREVICES. SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS INDICATE THE LIKLIHOOD OF COLD AIR DAMMING DOWN ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. ALL OF THIS TRANSITION SHOULD HAPPEN IN 6-8 HOURS
TIME. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE CHAMPLAIN & ST LAWRENCE
VALLEYS WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS
FROM FULLY MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THOUGH THIS WILL BE A MIX OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/3", SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANYTHING MAJOR. THE "WARM UP" WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE FAST MOVING
LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH. THUS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING. ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL END AS SNOW.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE, LIKED THE ECMWF SOLUTION OVER
THE GFS. IN THIS SCENARIO, ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG (BUT ONLY 1035MB
THIS TIME) HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS IN AND PUSHES THE COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH. LEADS TO A DRY THURSDAY, AND MOST OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER
WITH THE HIGH PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, OUR FLOW AGAIN
TURNS SOUTHERLY AND STARTS BRINGING UP THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON, I DID PUT IN SOME
LOW POPS (20-30%) AND PAINTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TO CONTRAST,
THE GFS NEVER PUSHES THAT WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT TOO FAR AWAY. THE
HIGH IT BRINGS IN FOR THURSDAY IS TO OUR NORTH, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNNING THE FRONT RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (IN THE FORM OF A WINTER MIX) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THERE WAS NOT ANY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN, SO WHAT THAT ALL MEANS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. EXPECTING
CLOUD COVER TO BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER 18Z SATURDAY IN THIS
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITION SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPTIATION OR DRIZZLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH
MVFR/IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 290221
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
921 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN COLD TEMPERATURES AND
CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO IN THE COLDER
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS TO UPPER TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A WARM
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING BY AFTERNOON. A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 921 PM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH LINGERING NRN MTN SHSN/FLURRIES SLOWLY
COMING TO AND END LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME NATURAL VARIABILITY STARTING TO CROP UP IN HOURLY
T/TD OBSERVATIONS...BUT A QUICK LOOK AT FORECAST OVERNIGHT MINS
STILL APPEAR MOST REASONABLE OUT OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SO LEFT
THOSE VALUES UNCHANGED. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...KEEPING BULK OF LIGHT SNOWS/MIXED
PCPN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH NEARLY ALL MODEL RH/OMEGA PROGS AND MOS OUTPUT.
STILL LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PCPN TOMORROW
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOWEVER SO PLEASE REFER TO PRIMARY SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW DESCRIBING DYNAMICAL FORCING/REASONING ETC. HAVE
A GREAT NIGHT.

PRIOR NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FROM 628 PM EST FRIDAY...
FORECAST REMAINS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK AS OF EARLY EVENING.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND T/TD DATA TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN WANE/END.
POTL BUST ON TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT GIVEN FRESH SNOW COVER AND
CLEARING SKIES...BUT WARM THERMAL ADVECTION- DRIVEN MID CLOUDS
ARRIVE LATE SO TOUGH CALL. VALUES RANGING FROM 5-15 ABOVE WITH A
FEW UNLUCKY SPOTS AROUND ZERO STILL LOOK REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY..A LARGE SWING IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FROM
A COLD MORNING ON SATURDAY TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG LLVL WAA/FGEN FORCING FROM 850 TO
700MB...GOOD RIBBON OF RH >80%...AND SOME 5H ENERGY WL PRODUCE A
BAND OF SNOW ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WITH QPF <
0.10". USING THE RH FIELDS AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGGS
PLACES THE SNOW BAND ACRS THE SOUTHERN SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z-
21Z SAT...INTO THE NORTHERN DACKS AND CPV AROUND 00Z SUNDAY...AND
IMPACTING CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z-06Z SUNDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW
GOOD RH/OMEGA AND FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ALL INTERSECTING EACH
OTHER...SUPPORTING BIG FLAKE SIZE. EXPECTING ONLY A 1 TO 3 HOUR
WINDOW OF PRECIP LATE SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WARM FRNT FEATURE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN -8C AND -10C ON
SAT...BUT WARM TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS LLVL WAA COMBINED
WITH INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS WL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING
OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUNDAY...WITH COLDEST READINGS IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WHERE THE COLD AIR REMAINS
TRAPPED. WL MENTION HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO L30S ON
SATURDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NEK/EASTERN VT
TO NEAR 30F CPV/SLV...WITH TEMPS WARMING TWD 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS WL
INCREASE SHARPLY AFT 00Z SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MTN SUMMITS
ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TO 850MB JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...HELPING TO
ADVECT THE WARMER AIR INTO OUR CWA.

FOR SUNDAY...THICKNESS AND LLVL TEMPS INCREASE QUICKLY UNDER BOARD
SW FLW...WHILE BEST 850 TO 500MB RH IS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN SFC AND 850MB ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH WEAK UVVS FIELDS...SO THINKING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WL BE LIKELY...WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BTWN 1800 FEET
AND 2500 FT THRU 18Z SUNDAY...BEFORE ENTIRE THERMAL PROFILE WARMS
ABOVE 0C. ALSO...HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR COLD
AIR TO GET TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF VT ON SUNDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. ICE
ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ANTICIPATED
ATTM. TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTN WL WARM INTO THE 40S SLV/CPV WITH
MID/UPPER LVL NEK/MTNS. A VERY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS....AHEAD OF SHARP SFC BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WL
INCREASE THE CHCS FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AFT 06Z...ALONG WITH
FALLING TEMPS ACRS NORTHERN NY TWD 12Z MONDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRNT THRU 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A WEEK OF FAST-CHANGING
WEATHER. 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IN DECENT AGREEMENT UP TO WEDNESDAY,
THEN THE GFS AND ECMWF GO THEIR OWN WAY. HAVE STUCK WITH A BLEND
FOR MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, AND LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AFTER
THAT. RAMBLING THOUGHTS FOR EACH DAY ARE BELOW:

MONDAY: SHARP COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE MORNING (IF NOT A BIT EARLIER). ASSUMING WE`VE GOT
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CORRECT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 6AM-10AM, AND THEN FALL. SO EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST
WORDS MAY SAY "HIGH OF 40", THE REALITY IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S! COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND JUST BEHIND IT AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT, BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. INITIALLY RAIN SHOWERS, BUT WILL
TURN QUICKLY TO SNOW SHOWERS -- AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON BE FOCUSSED
MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PERHAPS A DUSTING IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND AN INCH OR SO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VERY
PROGRESSIVE/FAST FLOW PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE DOES
HAVE IT`S SOURCE IN FAR NORTHWEST CANADA AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -18C. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 0F TO +15F RANGE HERE AT GROUND LEVEL. BY THE
WAY, THE PRESSURE IN THE CENTER OF THAT HIGH WILL BE ABOUT 1044MB
(30.82").

TUESDAY: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH TO OUR EAST, BUT
KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER US FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE, HIGHS EVERYWHERE WILL
BE SUB-FREEZING. PERHAPS JUST MID 20S FOR THE "WARMER" VALLEYS.
THIS IS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. IN GENERAL, WE`LL
PROBABLY SEE A QUICK FALL OF TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EVENING AND
THEN STEADY/SLOW RISE LATER AT NIGHT. TIMING OF THE RETURN FLOW
THIS FAR OUT IS QUITE DIFFICULT, SO JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLEND FOR
LOWS. SO GENERALLY 10-20F, COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
RATHER HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURE BUSTS IN THIS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY: LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OF 40-50KT DEVELOPING. THIS
STRONG JET WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT -- AND THUS MAKE FOR
ISSUES WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. LIKED THE ECMWF DEPICTION OF THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (925MB TEMPERATURES +1 TO +3C BY 18Z), AND
THUS EXPECT INTIAL BOUT OF LIGHT SNOW TO TURN INTO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SLEET BEFORE TURNING INTO A BOUT OF LIGHT RAIN. CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PARTS OF EASTERN
VERMONT WHERE COLD AIR REMAINS STUCK IN VARIOUS NOOKS AND
CREVICES. SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS INDICATE THE LIKLIHOOD OF COLD AIR DAMMING DOWN ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. ALL OF THIS TRANSITION SHOULD HAPPEN IN 6-8 HOURS
TIME. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE CHAMPLAIN & ST LAWRENCE
VALLEYS WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS
FROM FULLY MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THOUGH THIS WILL BE A MIX OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/3", SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANYTHING MAJOR. THE "WARM UP" WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE FAST MOVING
LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH. THUS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING. ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL END AS SNOW.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE, LIKED THE ECMWF SOLUTION OVER
THE GFS. IN THIS SCENARIO, ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG (BUT ONLY 1035MB
THIS TIME) HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS IN AND PUSHES THE COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH. LEADS TO A DRY THURSDAY, AND MOST OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER
WITH THE HIGH PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, OUR FLOW AGAIN
TURNS SOUTHERLY AND STARTS BRINGING UP THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON, I DID PUT IN SOME
LOW POPS (20-30%) AND PAINTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TO CONTRAST,
THE GFS NEVER PUSHES THAT WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT TOO FAR AWAY. THE
HIGH IT BRINGS IN FOR THURSDAY IS TO OUR NORTH, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNNING THE FRONT RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (IN THE FORM OF A WINTER MIX) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THERE WAS NOT ANY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN, SO WHAT THAT ALL MEANS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. EXPECTING
CLOUD COVER TO BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER 18Z SATURDAY IN THIS
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITION SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPTIATION OR DRIZZLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH
MVFR/IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH




000
FXUS61 KALY 290209
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
909 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW...AS A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION.  MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM EST...DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE W/NW FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE THE MOST NUMEROUS ON THE
KENX RADAR ACRS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN BERKSHIRES.
AS INDICATED BY THE HRRR AND HIRESWRF MODEL COMP REFLECTIVITY THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE FLOW
MOVES BACK TO THE WEST AND BAND LOSES ITS LAKE CONNECTION.

THIS ALSO MAKES SENSE WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION...AND SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...SO THE BEST CHC OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL BE
IN THE WRN DACKS...PRIOR TO 06Z/SAT...AND THEN WE HAVE DIMINISHED
POPS THEREAFTER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT THE SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PARTIAL CLEARING WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND A FAIRLY FRESH
SNOW COVER.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS THE GFSMOS VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE METMOS VALUES. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES...AND A SHADE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH...AND 5-10 DEGREES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...THE H500 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA...AS H850 TEMPS RISE TO -1C TO
-4C BY 00Z/SUN. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY MOVE INTO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNSET. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND MAINLY
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TOUGH PART OF THE FCST WHERE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARMING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
PA...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU FROM THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST QG FORCING FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OVER
THE NRN ZONES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF -FZRA AND/OR -IP IN THE FCST
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT COULD HANDLE THE VERY LIGHT MIX...BUT WE WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO WITH THE SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL
BE RISING...AND MODEL QPF FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY 5 HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND WAS
USED IN THE FCST...AS DONE BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO L30S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION WITH ANY SPOTTY MIXED PCPN EARLY ON TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AS
H850 TEMPS POP UP TO +3C TO +5C...AND SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH SOME U40S ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE OR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
INTO THE FCST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY...AND THE BETTER CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID AND U30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON MONDAY. NOT THAT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SO POPS HAVE ONLY BEEN FORECAST IN THE 30
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT MONDAY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

THE COLDER AIR WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP
TO LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS.

FAIR BUT COLD TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH...SO THE
CHANCE OF PCPN WILL LINGER INTO AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS EVEN
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF PCPN. HAVE FOLLOWED NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND THEN A CHANCE OF PCPN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

MILDER AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. A LITTLE COLDER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT 20 TO 30.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SUNDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. MAINLY JUST SCT CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY MORNING
AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TAKES HOLD.

WINDS WILL BE WEST 3 TO 9 KTS. THIS EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AT 4 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 290209
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
909 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW...AS A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION.  MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM EST...DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE W/NW FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE THE MOST NUMEROUS ON THE
KENX RADAR ACRS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN BERKSHIRES.
AS INDICATED BY THE HRRR AND HIRESWRF MODEL COMP REFLECTIVITY THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE FLOW
MOVES BACK TO THE WEST AND BAND LOSES ITS LAKE CONNECTION.

THIS ALSO MAKES SENSE WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION...AND SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...SO THE BEST CHC OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL BE
IN THE WRN DACKS...PRIOR TO 06Z/SAT...AND THEN WE HAVE DIMINISHED
POPS THEREAFTER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT THE SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PARTIAL CLEARING WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND A FAIRLY FRESH
SNOW COVER.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS THE GFSMOS VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE METMOS VALUES. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES...AND A SHADE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH...AND 5-10 DEGREES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...THE H500 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA...AS H850 TEMPS RISE TO -1C TO
-4C BY 00Z/SUN. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY MOVE INTO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNSET. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND MAINLY
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TOUGH PART OF THE FCST WHERE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARMING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
PA...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU FROM THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST QG FORCING FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OVER
THE NRN ZONES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF -FZRA AND/OR -IP IN THE FCST
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT COULD HANDLE THE VERY LIGHT MIX...BUT WE WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO WITH THE SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL
BE RISING...AND MODEL QPF FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY 5 HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND WAS
USED IN THE FCST...AS DONE BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO L30S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION WITH ANY SPOTTY MIXED PCPN EARLY ON TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AS
H850 TEMPS POP UP TO +3C TO +5C...AND SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH SOME U40S ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE OR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
INTO THE FCST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY...AND THE BETTER CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID AND U30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON MONDAY. NOT THAT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SO POPS HAVE ONLY BEEN FORECAST IN THE 30
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT MONDAY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

THE COLDER AIR WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP
TO LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS.

FAIR BUT COLD TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH...SO THE
CHANCE OF PCPN WILL LINGER INTO AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS EVEN
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF PCPN. HAVE FOLLOWED NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND THEN A CHANCE OF PCPN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

MILDER AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. A LITTLE COLDER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT 20 TO 30.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SUNDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. MAINLY JUST SCT CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY MORNING
AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TAKES HOLD.

WINDS WILL BE WEST 3 TO 9 KTS. THIS EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AT 4 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 290209
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
909 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW...AS A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION.  MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM EST...DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE W/NW FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE THE MOST NUMEROUS ON THE
KENX RADAR ACRS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN BERKSHIRES.
AS INDICATED BY THE HRRR AND HIRESWRF MODEL COMP REFLECTIVITY THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE FLOW
MOVES BACK TO THE WEST AND BAND LOSES ITS LAKE CONNECTION.

THIS ALSO MAKES SENSE WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION...AND SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...SO THE BEST CHC OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL BE
IN THE WRN DACKS...PRIOR TO 06Z/SAT...AND THEN WE HAVE DIMINISHED
POPS THEREAFTER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT THE SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PARTIAL CLEARING WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND A FAIRLY FRESH
SNOW COVER.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS THE GFSMOS VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE METMOS VALUES. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES...AND A SHADE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH...AND 5-10 DEGREES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...THE H500 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA...AS H850 TEMPS RISE TO -1C TO
-4C BY 00Z/SUN. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY MOVE INTO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNSET. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND MAINLY
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TOUGH PART OF THE FCST WHERE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARMING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
PA...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU FROM THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST QG FORCING FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OVER
THE NRN ZONES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF -FZRA AND/OR -IP IN THE FCST
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT COULD HANDLE THE VERY LIGHT MIX...BUT WE WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO WITH THE SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL
BE RISING...AND MODEL QPF FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY 5 HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND WAS
USED IN THE FCST...AS DONE BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO L30S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION WITH ANY SPOTTY MIXED PCPN EARLY ON TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AS
H850 TEMPS POP UP TO +3C TO +5C...AND SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH SOME U40S ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE OR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
INTO THE FCST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY...AND THE BETTER CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID AND U30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON MONDAY. NOT THAT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SO POPS HAVE ONLY BEEN FORECAST IN THE 30
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT MONDAY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

THE COLDER AIR WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP
TO LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS.

FAIR BUT COLD TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH...SO THE
CHANCE OF PCPN WILL LINGER INTO AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS EVEN
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF PCPN. HAVE FOLLOWED NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND THEN A CHANCE OF PCPN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

MILDER AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. A LITTLE COLDER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT 20 TO 30.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SUNDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. MAINLY JUST SCT CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY MORNING
AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TAKES HOLD.

WINDS WILL BE WEST 3 TO 9 KTS. THIS EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AT 4 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 290209
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
909 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW...AS A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION.  MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM EST...DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE W/NW FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE THE MOST NUMEROUS ON THE
KENX RADAR ACRS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN BERKSHIRES.
AS INDICATED BY THE HRRR AND HIRESWRF MODEL COMP REFLECTIVITY THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE FLOW
MOVES BACK TO THE WEST AND BAND LOSES ITS LAKE CONNECTION.

THIS ALSO MAKES SENSE WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION...AND SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...SO THE BEST CHC OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL BE
IN THE WRN DACKS...PRIOR TO 06Z/SAT...AND THEN WE HAVE DIMINISHED
POPS THEREAFTER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT THE SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PARTIAL CLEARING WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND A FAIRLY FRESH
SNOW COVER.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS THE GFSMOS VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE METMOS VALUES. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES...AND A SHADE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH...AND 5-10 DEGREES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...THE H500 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA...AS H850 TEMPS RISE TO -1C TO
-4C BY 00Z/SUN. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY MOVE INTO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNSET. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND MAINLY
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TOUGH PART OF THE FCST WHERE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARMING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
PA...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU FROM THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST QG FORCING FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OVER
THE NRN ZONES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF -FZRA AND/OR -IP IN THE FCST
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT COULD HANDLE THE VERY LIGHT MIX...BUT WE WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO WITH THE SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL
BE RISING...AND MODEL QPF FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY 5 HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND WAS
USED IN THE FCST...AS DONE BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO L30S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION WITH ANY SPOTTY MIXED PCPN EARLY ON TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AS
H850 TEMPS POP UP TO +3C TO +5C...AND SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH SOME U40S ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE OR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
INTO THE FCST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY...AND THE BETTER CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID AND U30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON MONDAY. NOT THAT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SO POPS HAVE ONLY BEEN FORECAST IN THE 30
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT MONDAY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

THE COLDER AIR WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP
TO LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS.

FAIR BUT COLD TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH...SO THE
CHANCE OF PCPN WILL LINGER INTO AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS EVEN
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF PCPN. HAVE FOLLOWED NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND THEN A CHANCE OF PCPN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

MILDER AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. A LITTLE COLDER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT 20 TO 30.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SUNDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. MAINLY JUST SCT CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY MORNING
AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TAKES HOLD.

WINDS WILL BE WEST 3 TO 9 KTS. THIS EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AT 4 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 282354
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
654 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN COLD TEMPERATURES AND
CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO IN THE COLDER
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS TO UPPER TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A WARM
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING BY AFTERNOON. A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 628 PM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK
AS OF EARLY EVENING. ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND T/TD DATA TO MATCH
CURRENT TRENDS. SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THEN WANE/END. POTL BUST ON TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT GIVEN
FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING SKIES...BUT WARM THERMAL ADVECTION-
DRIVEN MID CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE SO TOUGH CALL. VALUES RANGING FROM
5-15 ABOVE WITH A FEW UNLUCKY SPOTS AROUND ZERO STILL LOOK
REASONABLE ATTM. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY..A LARGE SWING IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FROM
A COLD MORNING ON SATURDAY TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG LLVL WAA/FGEN FORCING FROM 850 TO
700MB...GOOD RIBBON OF RH >80%...AND SOME 5H ENERGY WL PRODUCE A
BAND OF SNOW ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WITH QPF <
0.10". USING THE RH FIELDS AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGGS
PLACES THE SNOW BAND ACRS THE SOUTHERN SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z-
21Z SAT...INTO THE NORTHERN DACKS AND CPV AROUND 00Z SUNDAY...AND
IMPACTING CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z-06Z SUNDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW
GOOD RH/OMEGA AND FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ALL INTERSECTING EACH
OTHER...SUPPORTING BIG FLAKE SIZE. EXPECTING ONLY A 1 TO 3 HOUR
WINDOW OF PRECIP LATE SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WARM FRNT FEATURE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN -8C AND -10C ON
SAT...BUT WARM TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS LLVL WAA COMBINED
WITH INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS WL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING
OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUNDAY...WITH COLDEST READINGS IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WHERE THE COLD AIR REMAINS
TRAPPED. WL MENTION HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO L30S ON
SATURDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NEK/EASTERN VT
TO NEAR 30F CPV/SLV...WITH TEMPS WARMING TWD 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS WL
INCREASE SHARPLY AFT 00Z SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MTN SUMMITS
ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TO 850MB JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...HELPING TO
ADVECT THE WARMER AIR INTO OUR CWA.

FOR SUNDAY...THICKNESS AND LLVL TEMPS INCREASE QUICKLY UNDER BOARD
SW FLW...WHILE BEST 850 TO 500MB RH IS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN SFC AND 850MB ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH WEAK UVVS FIELDS...SO THINKING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WL BE LIKELY...WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BTWN 1800 FEET
AND 2500 FT THRU 18Z SUNDAY...BEFORE ENTIRE THERMAL PROFILE WARMS
ABOVE 0C. ALSO...HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR COLD
AIR TO GET TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF VT ON SUNDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. ICE
ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ANTICIPATED
ATTM. TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTN WL WARM INTO THE 40S SLV/CPV WITH
MID/UPPER LVL NEK/MTNS. A VERY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS....AHEAD OF SHARP SFC BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WL
INCREASE THE CHCS FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AFT 06Z...ALONG WITH
FALLING TEMPS ACRS NORTHERN NY TWD 12Z MONDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRNT THRU 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A WEEK OF FAST-CHANGING
WEATHER. 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IN DECENT AGREEMENT UP TO WEDNESDAY,
THEN THE GFS AND ECMWF GO THEIR OWN WAY. HAVE STUCK WITH A BLEND
FOR MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, AND LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AFTER
THAT. RAMBLING THOUGHTS FOR EACH DAY ARE BELOW:

MONDAY: SHARP COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE MORNING (IF NOT A BIT EARLIER). ASSUMING WE`VE GOT
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CORRECT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 6AM-10AM, AND THEN FALL. SO EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST
WORDS MAY SAY "HIGH OF 40", THE REALITY IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S! COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND JUST BEHIND IT AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT, BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. INITIALLY RAIN SHOWERS, BUT WILL
TURN QUICKLY TO SNOW SHOWERS -- AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON BE FOCUSSED
MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PERHAPS A DUSTING IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND AN INCH OR SO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VERY
PROGRESSIVE/FAST FLOW PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE DOES
HAVE IT`S SOURCE IN FAR NORTHWEST CANADA AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -18C. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 0F TO +15F RANGE HERE AT GROUND LEVEL. BY THE
WAY, THE PRESSURE IN THE CENTER OF THAT HIGH WILL BE ABOUT 1044MB
(30.82").

TUESDAY: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH TO OUR EAST, BUT
KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER US FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE, HIGHS EVERYWHERE WILL
BE SUB-FREEZING. PERHAPS JUST MID 20S FOR THE "WARMER" VALLEYS.
THIS IS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. IN GENERAL, WE`LL
PROBABLY SEE A QUICK FALL OF TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EVENING AND
THEN STEADY/SLOW RISE LATER AT NIGHT. TIMING OF THE RETURN FLOW
THIS FAR OUT IS QUITE DIFFICULT, SO JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLEND FOR
LOWS. SO GENERALLY 10-20F, COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
RATHER HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURE BUSTS IN THIS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY: LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OF 40-50KT DEVELOPING. THIS
STRONG JET WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT -- AND THUS MAKE FOR
ISSUES WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. LIKED THE ECMWF DEPICTION OF THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (925MB TEMPERATURES +1 TO +3C BY 18Z), AND
THUS EXPECT INTIAL BOUT OF LIGHT SNOW TO TURN INTO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SLEET BEFORE TURNING INTO A BOUT OF LIGHT RAIN. CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PARTS OF EASTERN
VERMONT WHERE COLD AIR REMAINS STUCK IN VARIOUS NOOKS AND
CREVICES. SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS INDICATE THE LIKLIHOOD OF COLD AIR DAMMING DOWN ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. ALL OF THIS TRANSITION SHOULD HAPPEN IN 6-8 HOURS
TIME. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE CHAMPLAIN & ST LAWRENCE
VALLEYS WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS
FROM FULLY MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THOUGH THIS WILL BE A MIX OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/3", SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANYTHING MAJOR. THE "WARM UP" WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE FAST MOVING
LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH. THUS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING. ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL END AS SNOW.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE, LIKED THE ECMWF SOLUTION OVER
THE GFS. IN THIS SCENARIO, ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG (BUT ONLY 1035MB
THIS TIME) HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS IN AND PUSHES THE COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH. LEADS TO A DRY THURSDAY, AND MOST OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER
WITH THE HIGH PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, OUR FLOW AGAIN
TURNS SOUTHERLY AND STARTS BRINGING UP THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON, I DID PUT IN SOME
LOW POPS (20-30%) AND PAINTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TO CONTRAST,
THE GFS NEVER PUSHES THAT WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT TOO FAR AWAY. THE
HIGH IT BRINGS IN FOR THURSDAY IS TO OUR NORTH, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNNING THE FRONT RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (IN THE FORM OF A WINTER MIX) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THERE WAS NOT ANY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN, SO WHAT THAT ALL MEANS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. EXPECTING
CLOUD COVER TO BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER 18Z SATURDAY IN THIS
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITION SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPTIATION OR DRIZZLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH
MVFR/IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 282354
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
654 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN COLD TEMPERATURES AND
CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO IN THE COLDER
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS TO UPPER TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A WARM
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING BY AFTERNOON. A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 628 PM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK
AS OF EARLY EVENING. ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND T/TD DATA TO MATCH
CURRENT TRENDS. SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THEN WANE/END. POTL BUST ON TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT GIVEN
FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING SKIES...BUT WARM THERMAL ADVECTION-
DRIVEN MID CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE SO TOUGH CALL. VALUES RANGING FROM
5-15 ABOVE WITH A FEW UNLUCKY SPOTS AROUND ZERO STILL LOOK
REASONABLE ATTM. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY..A LARGE SWING IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FROM
A COLD MORNING ON SATURDAY TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG LLVL WAA/FGEN FORCING FROM 850 TO
700MB...GOOD RIBBON OF RH >80%...AND SOME 5H ENERGY WL PRODUCE A
BAND OF SNOW ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WITH QPF <
0.10". USING THE RH FIELDS AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGGS
PLACES THE SNOW BAND ACRS THE SOUTHERN SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z-
21Z SAT...INTO THE NORTHERN DACKS AND CPV AROUND 00Z SUNDAY...AND
IMPACTING CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z-06Z SUNDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW
GOOD RH/OMEGA AND FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ALL INTERSECTING EACH
OTHER...SUPPORTING BIG FLAKE SIZE. EXPECTING ONLY A 1 TO 3 HOUR
WINDOW OF PRECIP LATE SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WARM FRNT FEATURE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN -8C AND -10C ON
SAT...BUT WARM TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS LLVL WAA COMBINED
WITH INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS WL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING
OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUNDAY...WITH COLDEST READINGS IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WHERE THE COLD AIR REMAINS
TRAPPED. WL MENTION HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO L30S ON
SATURDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NEK/EASTERN VT
TO NEAR 30F CPV/SLV...WITH TEMPS WARMING TWD 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS WL
INCREASE SHARPLY AFT 00Z SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MTN SUMMITS
ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TO 850MB JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...HELPING TO
ADVECT THE WARMER AIR INTO OUR CWA.

FOR SUNDAY...THICKNESS AND LLVL TEMPS INCREASE QUICKLY UNDER BOARD
SW FLW...WHILE BEST 850 TO 500MB RH IS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN SFC AND 850MB ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH WEAK UVVS FIELDS...SO THINKING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WL BE LIKELY...WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BTWN 1800 FEET
AND 2500 FT THRU 18Z SUNDAY...BEFORE ENTIRE THERMAL PROFILE WARMS
ABOVE 0C. ALSO...HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR COLD
AIR TO GET TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF VT ON SUNDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. ICE
ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ANTICIPATED
ATTM. TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTN WL WARM INTO THE 40S SLV/CPV WITH
MID/UPPER LVL NEK/MTNS. A VERY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS....AHEAD OF SHARP SFC BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WL
INCREASE THE CHCS FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AFT 06Z...ALONG WITH
FALLING TEMPS ACRS NORTHERN NY TWD 12Z MONDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRNT THRU 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A WEEK OF FAST-CHANGING
WEATHER. 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IN DECENT AGREEMENT UP TO WEDNESDAY,
THEN THE GFS AND ECMWF GO THEIR OWN WAY. HAVE STUCK WITH A BLEND
FOR MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, AND LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AFTER
THAT. RAMBLING THOUGHTS FOR EACH DAY ARE BELOW:

MONDAY: SHARP COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE MORNING (IF NOT A BIT EARLIER). ASSUMING WE`VE GOT
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CORRECT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 6AM-10AM, AND THEN FALL. SO EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST
WORDS MAY SAY "HIGH OF 40", THE REALITY IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S! COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND JUST BEHIND IT AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT, BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. INITIALLY RAIN SHOWERS, BUT WILL
TURN QUICKLY TO SNOW SHOWERS -- AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON BE FOCUSSED
MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PERHAPS A DUSTING IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND AN INCH OR SO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VERY
PROGRESSIVE/FAST FLOW PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE DOES
HAVE IT`S SOURCE IN FAR NORTHWEST CANADA AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -18C. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 0F TO +15F RANGE HERE AT GROUND LEVEL. BY THE
WAY, THE PRESSURE IN THE CENTER OF THAT HIGH WILL BE ABOUT 1044MB
(30.82").

TUESDAY: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH TO OUR EAST, BUT
KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER US FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE, HIGHS EVERYWHERE WILL
BE SUB-FREEZING. PERHAPS JUST MID 20S FOR THE "WARMER" VALLEYS.
THIS IS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. IN GENERAL, WE`LL
PROBABLY SEE A QUICK FALL OF TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EVENING AND
THEN STEADY/SLOW RISE LATER AT NIGHT. TIMING OF THE RETURN FLOW
THIS FAR OUT IS QUITE DIFFICULT, SO JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLEND FOR
LOWS. SO GENERALLY 10-20F, COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
RATHER HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURE BUSTS IN THIS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY: LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OF 40-50KT DEVELOPING. THIS
STRONG JET WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT -- AND THUS MAKE FOR
ISSUES WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. LIKED THE ECMWF DEPICTION OF THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (925MB TEMPERATURES +1 TO +3C BY 18Z), AND
THUS EXPECT INTIAL BOUT OF LIGHT SNOW TO TURN INTO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SLEET BEFORE TURNING INTO A BOUT OF LIGHT RAIN. CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PARTS OF EASTERN
VERMONT WHERE COLD AIR REMAINS STUCK IN VARIOUS NOOKS AND
CREVICES. SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS INDICATE THE LIKLIHOOD OF COLD AIR DAMMING DOWN ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. ALL OF THIS TRANSITION SHOULD HAPPEN IN 6-8 HOURS
TIME. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE CHAMPLAIN & ST LAWRENCE
VALLEYS WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS
FROM FULLY MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THOUGH THIS WILL BE A MIX OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/3", SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANYTHING MAJOR. THE "WARM UP" WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE FAST MOVING
LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH. THUS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING. ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL END AS SNOW.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE, LIKED THE ECMWF SOLUTION OVER
THE GFS. IN THIS SCENARIO, ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG (BUT ONLY 1035MB
THIS TIME) HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS IN AND PUSHES THE COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH. LEADS TO A DRY THURSDAY, AND MOST OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER
WITH THE HIGH PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, OUR FLOW AGAIN
TURNS SOUTHERLY AND STARTS BRINGING UP THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON, I DID PUT IN SOME
LOW POPS (20-30%) AND PAINTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TO CONTRAST,
THE GFS NEVER PUSHES THAT WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT TOO FAR AWAY. THE
HIGH IT BRINGS IN FOR THURSDAY IS TO OUR NORTH, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNNING THE FRONT RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (IN THE FORM OF A WINTER MIX) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THERE WAS NOT ANY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN, SO WHAT THAT ALL MEANS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. EXPECTING
CLOUD COVER TO BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER 18Z SATURDAY IN THIS
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITION SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPTIATION OR DRIZZLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH
MVFR/IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 282328
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
628 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN COLD TEMPERATURES AND
CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO IN THE COLDER
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS TO UPPER TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A WARM
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING BY AFTERNOON. A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 628 PM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK
AS OF EARLY EVENING. ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND T/TD DATA TO MATCH
CURRENT TRENDS. SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THEN WANE/END. POTL BUST ON TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT GIVEN
FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING SKIES...BUT WARM THERMAL ADVECTION-
DRIVEN MID CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE SO TOUGH CALL. VALUES RANGING FROM
5-15 ABOVE WITH A FEW UNLUCKY SPOTS AROUND ZERO STILL LOOK
REASONABLE ATTM. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY..A LARGE SWING IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FROM
A COLD MORNING ON SATURDAY TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG LLVL WAA/FGEN FORCING FROM 850 TO
700MB...GOOD RIBBON OF RH >80%...AND SOME 5H ENERGY WL PRODUCE A
BAND OF SNOW ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WITH QPF <
0.10". USING THE RH FIELDS AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGGS
PLACES THE SNOW BAND ACRS THE SOUTHERN SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z-
21Z SAT...INTO THE NORTHERN DACKS AND CPV AROUND 00Z SUNDAY...AND
IMPACTING CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z-06Z SUNDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW
GOOD RH/OMEGA AND FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ALL INTERSECTING EACH
OTHER...SUPPORTING BIG FLAKE SIZE. EXPECTING ONLY A 1 TO 3 HOUR
WINDOW OF PRECIP LATE SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WARM FRNT FEATURE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN -8C AND -10C ON
SAT...BUT WARM TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS LLVL WAA COMBINED
WITH INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS WL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING
OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUNDAY...WITH COLDEST READINGS IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WHERE THE COLD AIR REMAINS
TRAPPED. WL MENTION HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO L30S ON
SATURDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NEK/EASTERN VT
TO NEAR 30F CPV/SLV...WITH TEMPS WARMING TWD 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS WL
INCREASE SHARPLY AFT 00Z SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MTN SUMMITS
ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TO 850MB JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...HELPING TO
ADVECT THE WARMER AIR INTO OUR CWA.

FOR SUNDAY...THICKNESS AND LLVL TEMPS INCREASE QUICKLY UNDER BOARD
SW FLW...WHILE BEST 850 TO 500MB RH IS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN SFC AND 850MB ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH WEAK UVVS FIELDS...SO THINKING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WL BE LIKELY...WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BTWN 1800 FEET
AND 2500 FT THRU 18Z SUNDAY...BEFORE ENTIRE THERMAL PROFILE WARMS
ABOVE 0C. ALSO...HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR COLD
AIR TO GET TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF VT ON SUNDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. ICE
ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ANTICIPATED
ATTM. TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTN WL WARM INTO THE 40S SLV/CPV WITH
MID/UPPER LVL NEK/MTNS. A VERY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS....AHEAD OF SHARP SFC BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WL
INCREASE THE CHCS FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AFT 06Z...ALONG WITH
FALLING TEMPS ACRS NORTHERN NY TWD 12Z MONDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRNT THRU 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A WEEK OF FAST-CHANGING
WEATHER. 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IN DECENT AGREEMENT UP TO WEDNESDAY,
THEN THE GFS AND ECMWF GO THEIR OWN WAY. HAVE STUCK WITH A BLEND
FOR MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, AND LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AFTER
THAT. RAMBLING THOUGHTS FOR EACH DAY ARE BELOW:

MONDAY: SHARP COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE MORNING (IF NOT A BIT EARLIER). ASSUMING WE`VE GOT
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CORRECT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 6AM-10AM, AND THEN FALL. SO EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST
WORDS MAY SAY "HIGH OF 40", THE REALITY IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S! COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND JUST BEHIND IT AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT, BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. INITIALLY RAIN SHOWERS, BUT WILL
TURN QUICKLY TO SNOW SHOWERS -- AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON BE FOCUSSED
MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PERHAPS A DUSTING IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND AN INCH OR SO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VERY
PROGRESSIVE/FAST FLOW PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE DOES
HAVE IT`S SOURCE IN FAR NORTHWEST CANADA AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -18C. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 0F TO +15F RANGE HERE AT GROUND LEVEL. BY THE
WAY, THE PRESSURE IN THE CENTER OF THAT HIGH WILL BE ABOUT 1044MB
(30.82").

TUESDAY: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH TO OUR EAST, BUT
KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER US FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE, HIGHS EVERYWHERE WILL
BE SUB-FREEZING. PERHAPS JUST MID 20S FOR THE "WARMER" VALLEYS.
THIS IS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. IN GENERAL, WE`LL
PROBABLY SEE A QUICK FALL OF TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EVENING AND
THEN STEADY/SLOW RISE LATER AT NIGHT. TIMING OF THE RETURN FLOW
THIS FAR OUT IS QUITE DIFFICULT, SO JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLEND FOR
LOWS. SO GENERALLY 10-20F, COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
RATHER HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURE BUSTS IN THIS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY: LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OF 40-50KT DEVELOPING. THIS
STRONG JET WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT -- AND THUS MAKE FOR
ISSUES WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. LIKED THE ECMWF DEPICTION OF THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (925MB TEMPERATURES +1 TO +3C BY 18Z), AND
THUS EXPECT INTIAL BOUT OF LIGHT SNOW TO TURN INTO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SLEET BEFORE TURNING INTO A BOUT OF LIGHT RAIN. CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PARTS OF EASTERN
VERMONT WHERE COLD AIR REMAINS STUCK IN VARIOUS NOOKS AND
CREVICES. SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS INDICATE THE LIKLIHOOD OF COLD AIR DAMMING DOWN ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. ALL OF THIS TRANSITION SHOULD HAPPEN IN 6-8 HOURS
TIME. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE CHAMPLAIN & ST LAWRENCE
VALLEYS WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS
FROM FULLY MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THOUGH THIS WILL BE A MIX OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/3", SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANYTHING MAJOR. THE "WARM UP" WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE FAST MOVING
LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH. THUS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING. ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL END AS SNOW.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE, LIKED THE ECMWF SOLUTION OVER
THE GFS. IN THIS SCENARIO, ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG (BUT ONLY 1035MB
THIS TIME) HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS IN AND PUSHES THE COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH. LEADS TO A DRY THURSDAY, AND MOST OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER
WITH THE HIGH PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, OUR FLOW AGAIN
TURNS SOUTHERLY AND STARTS BRINGING UP THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON, I DID PUT IN SOME
LOW POPS (20-30%) AND PAINTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TO CONTRAST,
THE GFS NEVER PUSHES THAT WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT TOO FAR AWAY. THE
HIGH IT BRINGS IN FOR THURSDAY IS TO OUR NORTH, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNNING THE FRONT RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (IN THE FORM OF A WINTER MIX) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THERE WAS NOT ANY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN, SO WHAT THAT ALL MEANS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CURRENTLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE
REGION. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
A FEW SPOTS SEE VERY SHORT PERIODS OF IFR WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO
1-2SM. FROM AN AIPORT FORECAST PERSPECTIVE, THINK SLK AND MPV
STAND THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE SOME OF THOSE BRIEF IFR BURSTS.

WITH SUNSET, THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD FADE AWAY. EXPECTING MUCH
OF THE CLOUDS TO ALSO DISSIPATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, THUS
PROJECTING VFR AREA WIDE.

CLOUDS START INCREASING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, INITIALLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT LOWERING TO 3500-5000 FEET BY 18Z. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL 18Z OR JUST THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITION SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPTIATION OR DRIZZLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH
MVFR/IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 282328
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
628 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN COLD TEMPERATURES AND
CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO IN THE COLDER
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS TO UPPER TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A WARM
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING BY AFTERNOON. A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 628 PM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK
AS OF EARLY EVENING. ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND T/TD DATA TO MATCH
CURRENT TRENDS. SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THEN WANE/END. POTL BUST ON TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT GIVEN
FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING SKIES...BUT WARM THERMAL ADVECTION-
DRIVEN MID CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE SO TOUGH CALL. VALUES RANGING FROM
5-15 ABOVE WITH A FEW UNLUCKY SPOTS AROUND ZERO STILL LOOK
REASONABLE ATTM. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY..A LARGE SWING IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FROM
A COLD MORNING ON SATURDAY TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG LLVL WAA/FGEN FORCING FROM 850 TO
700MB...GOOD RIBBON OF RH >80%...AND SOME 5H ENERGY WL PRODUCE A
BAND OF SNOW ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WITH QPF <
0.10". USING THE RH FIELDS AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGGS
PLACES THE SNOW BAND ACRS THE SOUTHERN SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z-
21Z SAT...INTO THE NORTHERN DACKS AND CPV AROUND 00Z SUNDAY...AND
IMPACTING CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z-06Z SUNDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW
GOOD RH/OMEGA AND FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ALL INTERSECTING EACH
OTHER...SUPPORTING BIG FLAKE SIZE. EXPECTING ONLY A 1 TO 3 HOUR
WINDOW OF PRECIP LATE SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WARM FRNT FEATURE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN -8C AND -10C ON
SAT...BUT WARM TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS LLVL WAA COMBINED
WITH INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS WL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING
OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUNDAY...WITH COLDEST READINGS IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WHERE THE COLD AIR REMAINS
TRAPPED. WL MENTION HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO L30S ON
SATURDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NEK/EASTERN VT
TO NEAR 30F CPV/SLV...WITH TEMPS WARMING TWD 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS WL
INCREASE SHARPLY AFT 00Z SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MTN SUMMITS
ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TO 850MB JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...HELPING TO
ADVECT THE WARMER AIR INTO OUR CWA.

FOR SUNDAY...THICKNESS AND LLVL TEMPS INCREASE QUICKLY UNDER BOARD
SW FLW...WHILE BEST 850 TO 500MB RH IS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN SFC AND 850MB ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH WEAK UVVS FIELDS...SO THINKING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WL BE LIKELY...WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BTWN 1800 FEET
AND 2500 FT THRU 18Z SUNDAY...BEFORE ENTIRE THERMAL PROFILE WARMS
ABOVE 0C. ALSO...HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR COLD
AIR TO GET TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF VT ON SUNDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. ICE
ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ANTICIPATED
ATTM. TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTN WL WARM INTO THE 40S SLV/CPV WITH
MID/UPPER LVL NEK/MTNS. A VERY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS....AHEAD OF SHARP SFC BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WL
INCREASE THE CHCS FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AFT 06Z...ALONG WITH
FALLING TEMPS ACRS NORTHERN NY TWD 12Z MONDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRNT THRU 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A WEEK OF FAST-CHANGING
WEATHER. 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IN DECENT AGREEMENT UP TO WEDNESDAY,
THEN THE GFS AND ECMWF GO THEIR OWN WAY. HAVE STUCK WITH A BLEND
FOR MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, AND LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AFTER
THAT. RAMBLING THOUGHTS FOR EACH DAY ARE BELOW:

MONDAY: SHARP COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE MORNING (IF NOT A BIT EARLIER). ASSUMING WE`VE GOT
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CORRECT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 6AM-10AM, AND THEN FALL. SO EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST
WORDS MAY SAY "HIGH OF 40", THE REALITY IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S! COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND JUST BEHIND IT AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT, BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. INITIALLY RAIN SHOWERS, BUT WILL
TURN QUICKLY TO SNOW SHOWERS -- AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON BE FOCUSSED
MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PERHAPS A DUSTING IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND AN INCH OR SO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VERY
PROGRESSIVE/FAST FLOW PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE DOES
HAVE IT`S SOURCE IN FAR NORTHWEST CANADA AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -18C. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 0F TO +15F RANGE HERE AT GROUND LEVEL. BY THE
WAY, THE PRESSURE IN THE CENTER OF THAT HIGH WILL BE ABOUT 1044MB
(30.82").

TUESDAY: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH TO OUR EAST, BUT
KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER US FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE, HIGHS EVERYWHERE WILL
BE SUB-FREEZING. PERHAPS JUST MID 20S FOR THE "WARMER" VALLEYS.
THIS IS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. IN GENERAL, WE`LL
PROBABLY SEE A QUICK FALL OF TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EVENING AND
THEN STEADY/SLOW RISE LATER AT NIGHT. TIMING OF THE RETURN FLOW
THIS FAR OUT IS QUITE DIFFICULT, SO JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLEND FOR
LOWS. SO GENERALLY 10-20F, COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
RATHER HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURE BUSTS IN THIS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY: LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OF 40-50KT DEVELOPING. THIS
STRONG JET WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT -- AND THUS MAKE FOR
ISSUES WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. LIKED THE ECMWF DEPICTION OF THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (925MB TEMPERATURES +1 TO +3C BY 18Z), AND
THUS EXPECT INTIAL BOUT OF LIGHT SNOW TO TURN INTO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SLEET BEFORE TURNING INTO A BOUT OF LIGHT RAIN. CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PARTS OF EASTERN
VERMONT WHERE COLD AIR REMAINS STUCK IN VARIOUS NOOKS AND
CREVICES. SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS INDICATE THE LIKLIHOOD OF COLD AIR DAMMING DOWN ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. ALL OF THIS TRANSITION SHOULD HAPPEN IN 6-8 HOURS
TIME. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE CHAMPLAIN & ST LAWRENCE
VALLEYS WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS
FROM FULLY MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THOUGH THIS WILL BE A MIX OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/3", SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANYTHING MAJOR. THE "WARM UP" WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE FAST MOVING
LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH. THUS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING. ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL END AS SNOW.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE, LIKED THE ECMWF SOLUTION OVER
THE GFS. IN THIS SCENARIO, ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG (BUT ONLY 1035MB
THIS TIME) HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS IN AND PUSHES THE COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH. LEADS TO A DRY THURSDAY, AND MOST OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER
WITH THE HIGH PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, OUR FLOW AGAIN
TURNS SOUTHERLY AND STARTS BRINGING UP THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON, I DID PUT IN SOME
LOW POPS (20-30%) AND PAINTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TO CONTRAST,
THE GFS NEVER PUSHES THAT WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT TOO FAR AWAY. THE
HIGH IT BRINGS IN FOR THURSDAY IS TO OUR NORTH, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNNING THE FRONT RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (IN THE FORM OF A WINTER MIX) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THERE WAS NOT ANY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN, SO WHAT THAT ALL MEANS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CURRENTLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE
REGION. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
A FEW SPOTS SEE VERY SHORT PERIODS OF IFR WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO
1-2SM. FROM AN AIPORT FORECAST PERSPECTIVE, THINK SLK AND MPV
STAND THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE SOME OF THOSE BRIEF IFR BURSTS.

WITH SUNSET, THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD FADE AWAY. EXPECTING MUCH
OF THE CLOUDS TO ALSO DISSIPATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, THUS
PROJECTING VFR AREA WIDE.

CLOUDS START INCREASING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, INITIALLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT LOWERING TO 3500-5000 FEET BY 18Z. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL 18Z OR JUST THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITION SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPTIATION OR DRIZZLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH
MVFR/IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 282328
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
628 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN COLD TEMPERATURES AND
CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO IN THE COLDER
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS TO UPPER TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A WARM
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING BY AFTERNOON. A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 628 PM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK
AS OF EARLY EVENING. ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND T/TD DATA TO MATCH
CURRENT TRENDS. SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THEN WANE/END. POTL BUST ON TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT GIVEN
FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING SKIES...BUT WARM THERMAL ADVECTION-
DRIVEN MID CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE SO TOUGH CALL. VALUES RANGING FROM
5-15 ABOVE WITH A FEW UNLUCKY SPOTS AROUND ZERO STILL LOOK
REASONABLE ATTM. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY..A LARGE SWING IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FROM
A COLD MORNING ON SATURDAY TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG LLVL WAA/FGEN FORCING FROM 850 TO
700MB...GOOD RIBBON OF RH >80%...AND SOME 5H ENERGY WL PRODUCE A
BAND OF SNOW ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WITH QPF <
0.10". USING THE RH FIELDS AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGGS
PLACES THE SNOW BAND ACRS THE SOUTHERN SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z-
21Z SAT...INTO THE NORTHERN DACKS AND CPV AROUND 00Z SUNDAY...AND
IMPACTING CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z-06Z SUNDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW
GOOD RH/OMEGA AND FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ALL INTERSECTING EACH
OTHER...SUPPORTING BIG FLAKE SIZE. EXPECTING ONLY A 1 TO 3 HOUR
WINDOW OF PRECIP LATE SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WARM FRNT FEATURE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN -8C AND -10C ON
SAT...BUT WARM TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS LLVL WAA COMBINED
WITH INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS WL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING
OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUNDAY...WITH COLDEST READINGS IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WHERE THE COLD AIR REMAINS
TRAPPED. WL MENTION HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO L30S ON
SATURDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NEK/EASTERN VT
TO NEAR 30F CPV/SLV...WITH TEMPS WARMING TWD 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS WL
INCREASE SHARPLY AFT 00Z SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MTN SUMMITS
ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TO 850MB JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...HELPING TO
ADVECT THE WARMER AIR INTO OUR CWA.

FOR SUNDAY...THICKNESS AND LLVL TEMPS INCREASE QUICKLY UNDER BOARD
SW FLW...WHILE BEST 850 TO 500MB RH IS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN SFC AND 850MB ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH WEAK UVVS FIELDS...SO THINKING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WL BE LIKELY...WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BTWN 1800 FEET
AND 2500 FT THRU 18Z SUNDAY...BEFORE ENTIRE THERMAL PROFILE WARMS
ABOVE 0C. ALSO...HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR COLD
AIR TO GET TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF VT ON SUNDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. ICE
ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ANTICIPATED
ATTM. TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTN WL WARM INTO THE 40S SLV/CPV WITH
MID/UPPER LVL NEK/MTNS. A VERY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS....AHEAD OF SHARP SFC BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WL
INCREASE THE CHCS FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AFT 06Z...ALONG WITH
FALLING TEMPS ACRS NORTHERN NY TWD 12Z MONDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRNT THRU 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A WEEK OF FAST-CHANGING
WEATHER. 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IN DECENT AGREEMENT UP TO WEDNESDAY,
THEN THE GFS AND ECMWF GO THEIR OWN WAY. HAVE STUCK WITH A BLEND
FOR MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, AND LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AFTER
THAT. RAMBLING THOUGHTS FOR EACH DAY ARE BELOW:

MONDAY: SHARP COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE MORNING (IF NOT A BIT EARLIER). ASSUMING WE`VE GOT
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CORRECT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 6AM-10AM, AND THEN FALL. SO EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST
WORDS MAY SAY "HIGH OF 40", THE REALITY IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S! COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND JUST BEHIND IT AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT, BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. INITIALLY RAIN SHOWERS, BUT WILL
TURN QUICKLY TO SNOW SHOWERS -- AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON BE FOCUSSED
MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PERHAPS A DUSTING IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND AN INCH OR SO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VERY
PROGRESSIVE/FAST FLOW PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE DOES
HAVE IT`S SOURCE IN FAR NORTHWEST CANADA AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -18C. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 0F TO +15F RANGE HERE AT GROUND LEVEL. BY THE
WAY, THE PRESSURE IN THE CENTER OF THAT HIGH WILL BE ABOUT 1044MB
(30.82").

TUESDAY: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH TO OUR EAST, BUT
KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER US FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE, HIGHS EVERYWHERE WILL
BE SUB-FREEZING. PERHAPS JUST MID 20S FOR THE "WARMER" VALLEYS.
THIS IS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. IN GENERAL, WE`LL
PROBABLY SEE A QUICK FALL OF TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EVENING AND
THEN STEADY/SLOW RISE LATER AT NIGHT. TIMING OF THE RETURN FLOW
THIS FAR OUT IS QUITE DIFFICULT, SO JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLEND FOR
LOWS. SO GENERALLY 10-20F, COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
RATHER HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURE BUSTS IN THIS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY: LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OF 40-50KT DEVELOPING. THIS
STRONG JET WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT -- AND THUS MAKE FOR
ISSUES WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. LIKED THE ECMWF DEPICTION OF THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (925MB TEMPERATURES +1 TO +3C BY 18Z), AND
THUS EXPECT INTIAL BOUT OF LIGHT SNOW TO TURN INTO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SLEET BEFORE TURNING INTO A BOUT OF LIGHT RAIN. CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PARTS OF EASTERN
VERMONT WHERE COLD AIR REMAINS STUCK IN VARIOUS NOOKS AND
CREVICES. SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS INDICATE THE LIKLIHOOD OF COLD AIR DAMMING DOWN ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. ALL OF THIS TRANSITION SHOULD HAPPEN IN 6-8 HOURS
TIME. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE CHAMPLAIN & ST LAWRENCE
VALLEYS WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS
FROM FULLY MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THOUGH THIS WILL BE A MIX OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/3", SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANYTHING MAJOR. THE "WARM UP" WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE FAST MOVING
LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH. THUS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING. ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL END AS SNOW.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE, LIKED THE ECMWF SOLUTION OVER
THE GFS. IN THIS SCENARIO, ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG (BUT ONLY 1035MB
THIS TIME) HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS IN AND PUSHES THE COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH. LEADS TO A DRY THURSDAY, AND MOST OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER
WITH THE HIGH PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, OUR FLOW AGAIN
TURNS SOUTHERLY AND STARTS BRINGING UP THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON, I DID PUT IN SOME
LOW POPS (20-30%) AND PAINTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TO CONTRAST,
THE GFS NEVER PUSHES THAT WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT TOO FAR AWAY. THE
HIGH IT BRINGS IN FOR THURSDAY IS TO OUR NORTH, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNNING THE FRONT RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (IN THE FORM OF A WINTER MIX) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THERE WAS NOT ANY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN, SO WHAT THAT ALL MEANS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CURRENTLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE
REGION. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
A FEW SPOTS SEE VERY SHORT PERIODS OF IFR WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO
1-2SM. FROM AN AIPORT FORECAST PERSPECTIVE, THINK SLK AND MPV
STAND THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE SOME OF THOSE BRIEF IFR BURSTS.

WITH SUNSET, THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD FADE AWAY. EXPECTING MUCH
OF THE CLOUDS TO ALSO DISSIPATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, THUS
PROJECTING VFR AREA WIDE.

CLOUDS START INCREASING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, INITIALLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT LOWERING TO 3500-5000 FEET BY 18Z. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL 18Z OR JUST THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITION SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPTIATION OR DRIZZLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH
MVFR/IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 282328
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
628 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN COLD TEMPERATURES AND
CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO IN THE COLDER
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS TO UPPER TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A WARM
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING BY AFTERNOON. A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 628 PM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK
AS OF EARLY EVENING. ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND T/TD DATA TO MATCH
CURRENT TRENDS. SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THEN WANE/END. POTL BUST ON TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT GIVEN
FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING SKIES...BUT WARM THERMAL ADVECTION-
DRIVEN MID CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE SO TOUGH CALL. VALUES RANGING FROM
5-15 ABOVE WITH A FEW UNLUCKY SPOTS AROUND ZERO STILL LOOK
REASONABLE ATTM. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY..A LARGE SWING IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FROM
A COLD MORNING ON SATURDAY TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG LLVL WAA/FGEN FORCING FROM 850 TO
700MB...GOOD RIBBON OF RH >80%...AND SOME 5H ENERGY WL PRODUCE A
BAND OF SNOW ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WITH QPF <
0.10". USING THE RH FIELDS AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGGS
PLACES THE SNOW BAND ACRS THE SOUTHERN SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z-
21Z SAT...INTO THE NORTHERN DACKS AND CPV AROUND 00Z SUNDAY...AND
IMPACTING CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z-06Z SUNDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW
GOOD RH/OMEGA AND FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ALL INTERSECTING EACH
OTHER...SUPPORTING BIG FLAKE SIZE. EXPECTING ONLY A 1 TO 3 HOUR
WINDOW OF PRECIP LATE SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WARM FRNT FEATURE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN -8C AND -10C ON
SAT...BUT WARM TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS LLVL WAA COMBINED
WITH INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS WL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING
OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUNDAY...WITH COLDEST READINGS IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WHERE THE COLD AIR REMAINS
TRAPPED. WL MENTION HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO L30S ON
SATURDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NEK/EASTERN VT
TO NEAR 30F CPV/SLV...WITH TEMPS WARMING TWD 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS WL
INCREASE SHARPLY AFT 00Z SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MTN SUMMITS
ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TO 850MB JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...HELPING TO
ADVECT THE WARMER AIR INTO OUR CWA.

FOR SUNDAY...THICKNESS AND LLVL TEMPS INCREASE QUICKLY UNDER BOARD
SW FLW...WHILE BEST 850 TO 500MB RH IS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN SFC AND 850MB ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH WEAK UVVS FIELDS...SO THINKING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WL BE LIKELY...WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BTWN 1800 FEET
AND 2500 FT THRU 18Z SUNDAY...BEFORE ENTIRE THERMAL PROFILE WARMS
ABOVE 0C. ALSO...HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR COLD
AIR TO GET TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF VT ON SUNDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. ICE
ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ANTICIPATED
ATTM. TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTN WL WARM INTO THE 40S SLV/CPV WITH
MID/UPPER LVL NEK/MTNS. A VERY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS....AHEAD OF SHARP SFC BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WL
INCREASE THE CHCS FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AFT 06Z...ALONG WITH
FALLING TEMPS ACRS NORTHERN NY TWD 12Z MONDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRNT THRU 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A WEEK OF FAST-CHANGING
WEATHER. 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IN DECENT AGREEMENT UP TO WEDNESDAY,
THEN THE GFS AND ECMWF GO THEIR OWN WAY. HAVE STUCK WITH A BLEND
FOR MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, AND LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AFTER
THAT. RAMBLING THOUGHTS FOR EACH DAY ARE BELOW:

MONDAY: SHARP COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE MORNING (IF NOT A BIT EARLIER). ASSUMING WE`VE GOT
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CORRECT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 6AM-10AM, AND THEN FALL. SO EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST
WORDS MAY SAY "HIGH OF 40", THE REALITY IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S! COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND JUST BEHIND IT AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT, BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. INITIALLY RAIN SHOWERS, BUT WILL
TURN QUICKLY TO SNOW SHOWERS -- AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON BE FOCUSSED
MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PERHAPS A DUSTING IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND AN INCH OR SO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VERY
PROGRESSIVE/FAST FLOW PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE DOES
HAVE IT`S SOURCE IN FAR NORTHWEST CANADA AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -18C. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 0F TO +15F RANGE HERE AT GROUND LEVEL. BY THE
WAY, THE PRESSURE IN THE CENTER OF THAT HIGH WILL BE ABOUT 1044MB
(30.82").

TUESDAY: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH TO OUR EAST, BUT
KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER US FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE, HIGHS EVERYWHERE WILL
BE SUB-FREEZING. PERHAPS JUST MID 20S FOR THE "WARMER" VALLEYS.
THIS IS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. IN GENERAL, WE`LL
PROBABLY SEE A QUICK FALL OF TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EVENING AND
THEN STEADY/SLOW RISE LATER AT NIGHT. TIMING OF THE RETURN FLOW
THIS FAR OUT IS QUITE DIFFICULT, SO JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLEND FOR
LOWS. SO GENERALLY 10-20F, COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
RATHER HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURE BUSTS IN THIS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY: LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OF 40-50KT DEVELOPING. THIS
STRONG JET WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT -- AND THUS MAKE FOR
ISSUES WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. LIKED THE ECMWF DEPICTION OF THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (925MB TEMPERATURES +1 TO +3C BY 18Z), AND
THUS EXPECT INTIAL BOUT OF LIGHT SNOW TO TURN INTO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SLEET BEFORE TURNING INTO A BOUT OF LIGHT RAIN. CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PARTS OF EASTERN
VERMONT WHERE COLD AIR REMAINS STUCK IN VARIOUS NOOKS AND
CREVICES. SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS INDICATE THE LIKLIHOOD OF COLD AIR DAMMING DOWN ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. ALL OF THIS TRANSITION SHOULD HAPPEN IN 6-8 HOURS
TIME. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE CHAMPLAIN & ST LAWRENCE
VALLEYS WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS
FROM FULLY MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THOUGH THIS WILL BE A MIX OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/3", SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANYTHING MAJOR. THE "WARM UP" WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE FAST MOVING
LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH. THUS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING. ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL END AS SNOW.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE, LIKED THE ECMWF SOLUTION OVER
THE GFS. IN THIS SCENARIO, ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG (BUT ONLY 1035MB
THIS TIME) HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS IN AND PUSHES THE COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH. LEADS TO A DRY THURSDAY, AND MOST OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER
WITH THE HIGH PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, OUR FLOW AGAIN
TURNS SOUTHERLY AND STARTS BRINGING UP THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON, I DID PUT IN SOME
LOW POPS (20-30%) AND PAINTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TO CONTRAST,
THE GFS NEVER PUSHES THAT WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT TOO FAR AWAY. THE
HIGH IT BRINGS IN FOR THURSDAY IS TO OUR NORTH, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNNING THE FRONT RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (IN THE FORM OF A WINTER MIX) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THERE WAS NOT ANY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN, SO WHAT THAT ALL MEANS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CURRENTLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE
REGION. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
A FEW SPOTS SEE VERY SHORT PERIODS OF IFR WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO
1-2SM. FROM AN AIPORT FORECAST PERSPECTIVE, THINK SLK AND MPV
STAND THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE SOME OF THOSE BRIEF IFR BURSTS.

WITH SUNSET, THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD FADE AWAY. EXPECTING MUCH
OF THE CLOUDS TO ALSO DISSIPATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, THUS
PROJECTING VFR AREA WIDE.

CLOUDS START INCREASING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, INITIALLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT LOWERING TO 3500-5000 FEET BY 18Z. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL 18Z OR JUST THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITION SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPTIATION OR DRIZZLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH
MVFR/IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH



000
FXUS61 KALY 282310
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
610 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW...AS A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION.  MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE W/NW FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE THE MOST NUMEROUS ON THE
KENX RADAR FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN VERMONT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING.

THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR SHOWS ANY LAKE EFFECT BAND LOSING ITS
DOWNSTREAM EXTENSION INTO THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 00Z-03Z/SAT.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION...AND SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...SO THE BEST CHC OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL BE
IN THE WRN DACKS...PRIOR TO 06Z/SAT...AND THEN WE HAVE DIMINISHED
POPS THEREAFTER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT THE SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PARTIAL CLEARING WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND A FAIRLY FRESH
SNOW COVER.

LOWS TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS THE GFSMOS VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE METMOS VALUES. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES...AND A SHADE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH...AND 5-10 DEGREES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...THE H500 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA...AS H850 TEMPS RISE TO -1C TO
-4C BY 00Z/SUN. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY MOVE INTO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNSET. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND MAINLY
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TOUGH PART OF THE FCST WHERE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARMING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
PA...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU FROM THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST QG FORCING FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OVER
THE NRN ZONES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF -FZRA AND/OR -IP IN THE FCST
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT COULD HANDLE THE VERY LIGHT MIX...BUT WE WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO WITH THE SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL
BE RISING...AND MODEL QPF FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY 5 HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND WAS
USED IN THE FCST...AS DONE BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO L30S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION WITH ANY SPOTTY MIXED PCPN EARLY ON TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AS
H850 TEMPS POP UP TO +3C TO +5C...AND SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH SOME U40S ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE OR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
INTO THE FCST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY...AND THE BETTER CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID AND U30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON MONDAY. NOT THAT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SO POPS HAVE ONLY BEEN FORECAST IN THE 30
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT MONDAY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

THE COLDER AIR WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP
TO LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS.

FAIR BUT COLD TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH...SO THE
CHANCE OF PCPN WILL LINGER INTO AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS EVEN
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF PCPN. HAVE FOLLOWED NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND THEN A CHANCE OF PCPN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

MILDER AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. A LITTLE COLDER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT 20 TO 30.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SUNDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. MAINLY JUST SCT CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY MORNING
AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TAKES HOLD.

WINDS WILL BE WEST 3 TO 9 KTS. THIS EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AT 4 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 282303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW...AS A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION.  MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE W/NW FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE THE MOST NUMEROUS ON THE
KENX RADAR FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN VERMONT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING.

THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR SHOWS ANY LAKE EFFECT BAND LOSING ITS
DOWNSTREAM EXTENSION INTO THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 00Z-03Z/SAT.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION...AND SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...SO THE BEST CHC OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL BE
IN THE WRN DACKS...PRIOR TO 06Z/SAT...AND THEN WE HAVE DIMINISHED
POPS THEREAFTER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT THE SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PARTIAL CLEARING WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND A FAIRLY FRESH
SNOW COVER.

LOWS TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS THE GFSMOS VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE METMOS VALUES. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES...AND A SHADE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH...AND 5-10 DEGREES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...THE H500 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA...AS H850 TEMPS RISE TO -1C TO
-4C BY 00Z/SUN. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY MOVE INTO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNSET. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND MAINLY
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TOUGH PART OF THE FCST WHERE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARMING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
PA...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU FROM THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST QG FORCING FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OVER
THE NRN ZONES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF -FZRA AND/OR -IP IN THE FCST
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT COULD HANDLE THE VERY LIGHT MIX...BUT WE WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO WITH THE SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL
BE RISING...AND MODEL QPF FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY 5 HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND WAS
USED IN THE FCST...AS DONE BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO L30S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION WITH ANY SPOTTY MIXED PCPN EARLY ON TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AS
H850 TEMPS POP UP TO +3C TO +5C...AND SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH SOME U40S ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE OR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
INTO THE FCST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY...AND THE BETTER CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID AND U30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON MONDAY. NOT THAT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SO POPS HAVE ONLY BEEN FORECAST IN THE 30
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT MONDAY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

THE COLDER AIR WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP
TO LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS.

FAIR BUT COLD TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH...SO THE
CHANCE OF PCPN WILL LINGER INTO AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS EVEN
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF PCPN. HAVE FOLLOWED NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND THEN A CHANCE OF PCPN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

MILDER AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. A LITTLE COLDER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT 20 TO 30.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR DURING
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE...COLD TEMPS
ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE A -SHSN AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT THESE SITES INTO
THE EVENING. MAINLY JUST SCT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
TAKES HOLD.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS AT KPSF/KALB THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 282303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW...AS A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION.  MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE W/NW FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE THE MOST NUMEROUS ON THE
KENX RADAR FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN VERMONT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING.

THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR SHOWS ANY LAKE EFFECT BAND LOSING ITS
DOWNSTREAM EXTENSION INTO THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 00Z-03Z/SAT.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION...AND SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...SO THE BEST CHC OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL BE
IN THE WRN DACKS...PRIOR TO 06Z/SAT...AND THEN WE HAVE DIMINISHED
POPS THEREAFTER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT THE SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PARTIAL CLEARING WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND A FAIRLY FRESH
SNOW COVER.

LOWS TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS THE GFSMOS VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE METMOS VALUES. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES...AND A SHADE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH...AND 5-10 DEGREES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...THE H500 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA...AS H850 TEMPS RISE TO -1C TO
-4C BY 00Z/SUN. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY MOVE INTO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNSET. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND MAINLY
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TOUGH PART OF THE FCST WHERE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARMING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
PA...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU FROM THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST QG FORCING FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OVER
THE NRN ZONES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF -FZRA AND/OR -IP IN THE FCST
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT COULD HANDLE THE VERY LIGHT MIX...BUT WE WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO WITH THE SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL
BE RISING...AND MODEL QPF FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY 5 HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND WAS
USED IN THE FCST...AS DONE BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO L30S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION WITH ANY SPOTTY MIXED PCPN EARLY ON TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AS
H850 TEMPS POP UP TO +3C TO +5C...AND SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH SOME U40S ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE OR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
INTO THE FCST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY...AND THE BETTER CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID AND U30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON MONDAY. NOT THAT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SO POPS HAVE ONLY BEEN FORECAST IN THE 30
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT MONDAY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

THE COLDER AIR WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP
TO LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS.

FAIR BUT COLD TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH...SO THE
CHANCE OF PCPN WILL LINGER INTO AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS EVEN
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF PCPN. HAVE FOLLOWED NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND THEN A CHANCE OF PCPN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

MILDER AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. A LITTLE COLDER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT 20 TO 30.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR DURING
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE...COLD TEMPS
ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE A -SHSN AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT THESE SITES INTO
THE EVENING. MAINLY JUST SCT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
TAKES HOLD.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS AT KPSF/KALB THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 282130
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW...AS A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION.  MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EST...DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE W/NW FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF ER NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE THE MOST NUMEROUS ON THE
KENX RADAR FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE
LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR SHOWS ANY LAKE EFFECT BAND LOSING ITS
DOWNSTREAM EXTENSION INTO THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 00Z-03Z/SAT.
THIS MAKES SENSES WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION...AND SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...SO THE BEST CHC OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL BE
IN THE WRN DACKS...PRIOR TO 06Z/SAT...AND THEN WE HAVE DIMINISHED
POPS THEREAFTER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT THE SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PARTIAL CLEARING WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND A FAIRLY FRESH
SNOW COVER.

LOWS TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS THE GFSMOS VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE METMOS VALUES. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES...AND A SHADE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH...AND 5-10 DEGREES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...THE H500 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA...AS H850 TEMPS RISE TO -1C TO
-4C BY 00Z/SUN. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY MOVE INTO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNSET. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND MAINLY
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TOUGH PART OF THE FCST WHERE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARMING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
PA...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU FROM THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST QG FORCING FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OVER
THE NRN ZONES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF -FZRA AND/OR -IP IN THE FCST
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT COULD HANDLE THE VERY LIGHT MIX...BUT WE WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO WITH THE SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL
BE RISING...AND MODEL QPF FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY 5 HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND WAS
USED IN THE FCST...AS DONE BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO L30S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION WITH ANY SPOTTY MIXED PCPN EARLY ON TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AS
H850 TEMPS POP UP TO +3C TO +5C...AND SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH SOME U40S ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE OR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
INTO THE FCST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY...AND THE BETTER CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID AND U30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON MONDAY. NOT THAT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SO POPS HAVE ONLY BEEN FORECAST IN THE 30
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT MONDAY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

THE COLDER AIR WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP
TO LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS.

FAIR BUT COLD TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH...SO THE
CHANCE OF PCPN WILL LINGER INTO AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS EVEN
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF PCPN. HAVE FOLLOWED NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND THEN A CHANCE OF PCPN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

MILDER AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. A LITTLE COLDER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT 20 TO 30.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGHT HE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KPSF WHERE CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE...COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE A -SHSN AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT THESE SITES INTO THE EEVENING. MAINLY
JUST SCT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TAKES HOLD.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS AT KPSF/KALB THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 282129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW...AS A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION.  MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 428 PM EST...DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE W/NW FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF ER NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE THE MOST NUMEROUS ON THE
KENX RADAR FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE
LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR SHOWS ANY LAKE EFFECT BAND LOSING ITS
DOWNSTREAM EXTENSION INTO THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 00Z-03Z/SAT.
THIS MAKES SENSES WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION...AND SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...SO THE BEST CHC OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL BE
IN THE WRN DACKS...PRIOR TO 06Z/SAT...AND THEN WE HAVE DIMINISHED
POPS THEREAFTER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT THE SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PARTIAL CLEARING WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND A FAIRLY FRESH
SNOW COVER.

LOWS TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS THE GFSMOS VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE METMOS VALUES. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES...AND A SHADE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH...AND 5-10 DEGREES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...THE H500 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA...AS H850 TEMPS RISE TO -1C TO
-4C BY 00Z/SUN. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY MOVE INTO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNSET. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND MAINLY
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TOUGH PART OF THE FCST WHERE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARMING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
PA...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU FROM THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST QG FORCING FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OVER
THE NRN ZONES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF -FZRA AND/OR -IP IN THE FCST
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT COULD HANDLE THE VERY LIGHT MIX...BUT WE WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO WITH THE SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL
BE RISING...AND MODEL QPF FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY 5 HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND WAS
USED IN THE FCST...AS DONE BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO L30S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION WITH ANY SPOTTY MIXED PCPN EARLY ON TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AS
H850 TEMPS POP UP TO +3C TO +5C...AND SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH SOME U40S ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE OR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
INTO THE FCST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY...AND THE BETTER CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID AND U30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON MONDAY. NOT THAT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SO POPS HAVE ONLY BEEN FORECAST IN THE 30
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT MONDAY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

THE COLDER AIR WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP
TO LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS.

FAIR BUT COLD TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH...SO THE
CHANCE OF PCPN WILL LINGER INTO AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS EVEN
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF PCPN. HAVE FOLLOWED NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND THEN A CHANCE OF PCPN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

MILDER AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. A LITTLE COLDER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT 20 TO 30.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGHT HE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KPSF WHERE CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE...COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE A -SHSN AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT THESE SITES INTO THE EEVENING. MAINLY
JUST SCT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TAKES HOLD.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS AT KPSF/KALB THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT MIX OD PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 282129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW...AS A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION.  MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 428 PM EST...DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE W/NW FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF ER NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE THE MOST NUMEROUS ON THE
KENX RADAR FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE
LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR SHOWS ANY LAKE EFFECT BAND LOSING ITS
DOWNSTREAM EXTENSION INTO THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 00Z-03Z/SAT.
THIS MAKES SENSES WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION...AND SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...SO THE BEST CHC OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL BE
IN THE WRN DACKS...PRIOR TO 06Z/SAT...AND THEN WE HAVE DIMINISHED
POPS THEREAFTER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT THE SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PARTIAL CLEARING WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND A FAIRLY FRESH
SNOW COVER.

LOWS TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS THE GFSMOS VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE METMOS VALUES. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES...AND A SHADE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH...AND 5-10 DEGREES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...THE H500 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA...AS H850 TEMPS RISE TO -1C TO
-4C BY 00Z/SUN. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY MOVE INTO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNSET. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND MAINLY
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TOUGH PART OF THE FCST WHERE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARMING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
PA...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU FROM THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST QG FORCING FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OVER
THE NRN ZONES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF -FZRA AND/OR -IP IN THE FCST
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT COULD HANDLE THE VERY LIGHT MIX...BUT WE WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO WITH THE SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL
BE RISING...AND MODEL QPF FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY 5 HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND WAS
USED IN THE FCST...AS DONE BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO L30S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION WITH ANY SPOTTY MIXED PCPN EARLY ON TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AS
H850 TEMPS POP UP TO +3C TO +5C...AND SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH SOME U40S ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE OR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
INTO THE FCST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY...AND THE BETTER CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID AND U30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON MONDAY. NOT THAT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SO POPS HAVE ONLY BEEN FORECAST IN THE 30
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT MONDAY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

THE COLDER AIR WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP
TO LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS.

FAIR BUT COLD TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH...SO THE
CHANCE OF PCPN WILL LINGER INTO AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS EVEN
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF PCPN. HAVE FOLLOWED NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND THEN A CHANCE OF PCPN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

MILDER AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. A LITTLE COLDER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT 20 TO 30.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGHT HE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KPSF WHERE CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE...COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE A -SHSN AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT THESE SITES INTO THE EEVENING. MAINLY
JUST SCT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TAKES HOLD.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS AT KPSF/KALB THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT MIX OD PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 282129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW...AS A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION.  MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 428 PM EST...DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE W/NW FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF ER NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE THE MOST NUMEROUS ON THE
KENX RADAR FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE
LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR SHOWS ANY LAKE EFFECT BAND LOSING ITS
DOWNSTREAM EXTENSION INTO THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 00Z-03Z/SAT.
THIS MAKES SENSES WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION...AND SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...SO THE BEST CHC OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL BE
IN THE WRN DACKS...PRIOR TO 06Z/SAT...AND THEN WE HAVE DIMINISHED
POPS THEREAFTER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT THE SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PARTIAL CLEARING WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND A FAIRLY FRESH
SNOW COVER.

LOWS TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS THE GFSMOS VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE METMOS VALUES. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES...AND A SHADE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH...AND 5-10 DEGREES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...THE H500 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA...AS H850 TEMPS RISE TO -1C TO
-4C BY 00Z/SUN. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY MOVE INTO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNSET. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND MAINLY
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TOUGH PART OF THE FCST WHERE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARMING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
PA...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU FROM THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST QG FORCING FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OVER
THE NRN ZONES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF -FZRA AND/OR -IP IN THE FCST
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT COULD HANDLE THE VERY LIGHT MIX...BUT WE WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO WITH THE SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL
BE RISING...AND MODEL QPF FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY 5 HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND WAS
USED IN THE FCST...AS DONE BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO L30S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION WITH ANY SPOTTY MIXED PCPN EARLY ON TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AS
H850 TEMPS POP UP TO +3C TO +5C...AND SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH SOME U40S ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE OR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
INTO THE FCST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY...AND THE BETTER CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID AND U30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON MONDAY. NOT THAT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SO POPS HAVE ONLY BEEN FORECAST IN THE 30
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT MONDAY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

THE COLDER AIR WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP
TO LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS.

FAIR BUT COLD TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH...SO THE
CHANCE OF PCPN WILL LINGER INTO AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS EVEN
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF PCPN. HAVE FOLLOWED NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND THEN A CHANCE OF PCPN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

MILDER AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. A LITTLE COLDER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT 20 TO 30.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGHT HE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KPSF WHERE CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE...COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE A -SHSN AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT THESE SITES INTO THE EEVENING. MAINLY
JUST SCT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TAKES HOLD.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS AT KPSF/KALB THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT MIX OD PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 282129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW...AS A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION.  MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 428 PM EST...DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE W/NW FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF ER NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE THE MOST NUMEROUS ON THE
KENX RADAR FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE
LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR SHOWS ANY LAKE EFFECT BAND LOSING ITS
DOWNSTREAM EXTENSION INTO THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 00Z-03Z/SAT.
THIS MAKES SENSES WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION...AND SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...SO THE BEST CHC OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL BE
IN THE WRN DACKS...PRIOR TO 06Z/SAT...AND THEN WE HAVE DIMINISHED
POPS THEREAFTER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT THE SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PARTIAL CLEARING WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND A FAIRLY FRESH
SNOW COVER.

LOWS TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS THE GFSMOS VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE METMOS VALUES. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES...AND A SHADE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH...AND 5-10 DEGREES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...THE H500 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL...AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH WILL HELP INCREASE THE
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA...AS H850 TEMPS RISE TO -1C TO
-4C BY 00Z/SUN. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY MOVE INTO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNSET. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND MAINLY
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TOUGH PART OF THE FCST WHERE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARMING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
PA...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU FROM THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST QG FORCING FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OVER
THE NRN ZONES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF -FZRA AND/OR -IP IN THE FCST
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT COULD HANDLE THE VERY LIGHT MIX...BUT WE WILL
MENTION IT IN THE HWO WITH THE SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL
BE RISING...AND MODEL QPF FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY 5 HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND WAS
USED IN THE FCST...AS DONE BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO L30S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION WITH ANY SPOTTY MIXED PCPN EARLY ON TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AS
H850 TEMPS POP UP TO +3C TO +5C...AND SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH SOME U40S ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE OR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
INTO THE FCST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY...AND THE BETTER CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID AND U30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON MONDAY. NOT THAT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SO POPS HAVE ONLY BEEN FORECAST IN THE 30
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT MONDAY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

THE COLDER AIR WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP
TO LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS.

FAIR BUT COLD TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH...SO THE
CHANCE OF PCPN WILL LINGER INTO AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS EVEN
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF PCPN. HAVE FOLLOWED NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND THEN A CHANCE OF PCPN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

MILDER AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. A LITTLE COLDER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT 20 TO 30.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGHT HE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KPSF WHERE CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE...COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE A -SHSN AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT THESE SITES INTO THE EEVENING. MAINLY
JUST SCT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TAKES HOLD.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS AT KPSF/KALB THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT MIX OD PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KBTV 282043
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
343 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN COLD TEMPERATURES AND
CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO IN THE COLDER
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS TO UPPER TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A WARM
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING BY AFTERNOON. A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...INTERESTING AFTN ACRS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS. HAVE REPORTS OF VIS
QUICKLY DROPPING BLW 1/4SM IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWING DBZ BTWN 25 AND 30. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
RESULTED IN MTN LOCATIONS FROM JAY PEAK TO STOWE TO SUGARBUSH
AREAS RECEIVING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF A WEAK SFC TROF...STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES...AND
GOOD LLVL MOISTURE PROFILES HAVE HELPED PRODUCE THESE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...BUT ACTIVITY WL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 5 PM.

FCST CHALLENGE WL BE AMOUNT OF CLRING AND HOW COLD TO GO
TONIGHT...AS LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NEAR ZERO IN THE COLDER
PROTECTED MTN VALLEYS. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES 1026MB HIGH PRES JUST
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH LATEST 3HR PRES TRENDS SHOWING THIS
SYSTEM BUILDING TWD NORTHERN NY. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS MAINLY CLR SKIES
UPSTREAM UNDER THIS FEATURE...WHICH ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO LAST NIGHT IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS. GIVEN FRESH
SNOW PACK...PARTIAL CLRING FOR PART OF THE NIGHT...AND LIGHT WINDS
THRU 06Z...TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY WITH READINGS RANGING NEAR 0F FOR
THE NEK VALLEYS/SLK TO VALUES BTWN 10 AND 20F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
SOUNDINGS CONT TO SHOW SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE BTWN 925MB AND 850MB
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN SOME CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY MTN ZNS...WHICH WL
PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THE MAV NUMBERS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE LAKE CHAMPLAIN CLOUDS GIVEN VERY COLD AIRMASS WITH SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES POSSIBLE IMPACTING SHELBURNE TO SHOREHAM OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY..A LARGE SWING IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FROM
A COLD MORNING ON SATURDAY TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG LLVL WAA/FGEN FORCING FROM 850 TO
700MB...GOOD RIBBON OF RH >80%...AND SOME 5H ENERGY WL PRODUCE A
BAND OF SNOW ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WITH QPF <
0.10". USING THE RH FIELDS AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGGS
PLACES THE SNOW BAND ACRS THE SOUTHERN SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z-
21Z SAT...INTO THE NORTHERN DACKS AND CPV AROUND 00Z SUNDAY...AND
IMPACTING CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z-06Z SUNDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW
GOOD RH/OMEGA AND FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ALL INTERSECTING EACH
OTHER...SUPPORTING BIG FLAKE SIZE. EXPECTING ONLY A 1 TO 3 HOUR
WINDOW OF PRECIP LATE SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WARM FRNT FEATURE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN -8C AND -10C ON
SAT...BUT WARM TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS LLVL WAA COMBINED
WITH INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS WL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING
OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUNDAY...WITH COLDEST READINGS IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WHERE THE COLD AIR REMAINS
TRAPPED. WL MENTION HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO L30S ON
SATURDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NEK/EASTERN VT
TO NEAR 30F CPV/SLV...WITH TEMPS WARMING TWD 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS WL
INCREASE SHARPLY AFT 00Z SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MTN SUMMITS
ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TO 850MB JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...HELPING TO
ADVECT THE WARMER AIR INTO OUR CWA.

FOR SUNDAY...THICKNESS AND LLVL TEMPS INCREASE QUICKLY UNDER BOARD
SW FLW...WHILE BEST 850 TO 500MB RH IS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN SFC AND 850MB ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH WEAK UVVS FIELDS...SO THINKING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WL BE LIKELY...WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BTWN 1800 FEET
AND 2500 FT THRU 18Z SUNDAY...BEFORE ENTIRE THERMAL PROFILE WARMS
ABOVE 0C. ALSO...HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR COLD
AIR TO GET TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF VT ON SUNDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. ICE
ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ANTICIPATED
ATTM. TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTN WL WARM INTO THE 40S SLV/CPV WITH
MID/UPPER LVL NEK/MTNS. A VERY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS....AHEAD OF SHARP SFC BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WL
INCREASE THE CHCS FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AFT 06Z...ALONG WITH
FALLING TEMPS ACRS NORTHERN NY TWD 12Z MONDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRNT THRU 12Z MONDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A WEEK OF FAST-CHANGING
WEATHER. 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IN DECENT AGREEMENT UP TO WEDNESDAY,
THEN THE GFS AND ECMWF GO THEIR OWN WAY. HAVE STUCK WITH A BLEND
FOR MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, AND LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AFTER
THAT. RAMBLING THOUGHTS FOR EACH DAY ARE BELOW:

MONDAY: SHARP COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE MORNING (IF NOT A BIT EARLIER). ASSUMING WE`VE GOT
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CORRECT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 6AM-10AM, AND THEN FALL. SO EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST
WORDS MAY SAY "HIGH OF 40", THE REALITY IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S! COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND JUST BEHIND IT AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT, BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. INITIALLY RAIN SHOWERS, BUT WILL
TURN QUICKLY TO SNOW SHOWERS -- AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON BE FOCUSSED
MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PERHAPS A DUSTING IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND AN INCH OR SO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VERY
PROGRESSIVE/FAST FLOW PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE DOES
HAVE IT`S SOURCE IN FAR NORTHWEST CANADA AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -18C. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 0F TO +15F RANGE HERE AT GROUND LEVEL. BY THE
WAY, THE PRESSURE IN THE CENTER OF THAT HIGH WILL BE ABOUT 1044MB
(30.82").

TUESDAY: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH TO OUR EAST, BUT
KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER US FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE, HIGHS EVERYWHERE WILL
BE SUB-FREEZING. PERHAPS JUST MID 20S FOR THE "WARMER" VALLEYS.
THIS IS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. IN GENERAL, WE`LL
PROBABLY SEE A QUICK FALL OF TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EVENING AND
THEN STEADY/SLOW RISE LATER AT NIGHT. TIMING OF THE RETURN FLOW
THIS FAR OUT IS QUITE DIFFICULT, SO JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLEND FOR
LOWS. SO GENERALLY 10-20F, COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
RATHER HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURE BUSTS IN THIS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY: LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OF 40-50KT DEVELOPING. THIS
STRONG JET WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT -- AND THUS MAKE FOR
ISSUES WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. LIKED THE ECMWF DEPICTION OF THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (925MB TEMPERATURES +1 TO +3C BY 18Z), AND
THUS EXPECT INTIAL BOUT OF LIGHT SNOW TO TURN INTO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SLEET BEFORE TURNING INTO A BOUT OF LIGHT RAIN. CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PARTS OF EASTERN
VERMONT WHERE COLD AIR REMAINS STUCK IN VARIOUS NOOKS AND
CREVICES. SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS INDICATE THE LIKLIHOOD OF COLD AIR DAMMING DOWN ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. ALL OF THIS TRANSITION SHOULD HAPPEN IN 6-8 HOURS
TIME. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE CHAMPLAIN & ST LAWRENCE
VALLEYS WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS
FROM FULLY MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THOUGH THIS WILL BE A MIX OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/3", SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANYTHING MAJOR. THE "WARM UP" WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE FAST MOVING
LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH. THUS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING. ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL END AS SNOW.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE, LIKED THE ECMWF SOLUTION OVER
THE GFS. IN THIS SCENARIO, ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG (BUT ONLY 1035MB
THIS TIME) HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS IN AND PUSHES THE COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH. LEADS TO A DRY THURSDAY, AND MOST OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER
WITH THE HIGH PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, OUR FLOW AGAIN
TURNS SOUTHERLY AND STARTS BRINGING UP THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON, I DID PUT IN SOME
LOW POPS (20-30%) AND PAINTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TO CONTRAST,
THE GFS NEVER PUSHES THAT WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT TOO FAR AWAY. THE
HIGH IT BRINGS IN FOR THURSDAY IS TO OUR NORTH, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNNING THE FRONT RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (IN THE FORM OF A WINTER MIX) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THERE WAS NOT ANY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN, SO WHAT THAT ALL MEANS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CURRENTLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE
REGION. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
A FEW SPOTS SEE VERY SHORT PERIODS OF IFR WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO
1-2SM. FROM AN AIPORT FORECAST PERSPECTIVE, THINK SLK AND MPV
STAND THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE SOME OF THOSE BRIEF IFR BURSTS.

WITH SUNSET, THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD FADE AWAY. EXPECTING MUCH
OF THE CLOUDS TO ALSO DISSIPATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, THUS
PROJECTING VFR AREA WIDE.

CLOUDS START INCREASING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, INITIALLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT LOWERING TO 3500-5000 FEET BY 18Z. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL 18Z OR JUST THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITION SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPTIATION OR DRIZZLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH
MVFR/IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 282043
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
343 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN COLD TEMPERATURES AND
CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO IN THE COLDER
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS TO UPPER TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A WARM
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING BY AFTERNOON. A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...INTERESTING AFTN ACRS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS. HAVE REPORTS OF VIS
QUICKLY DROPPING BLW 1/4SM IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWING DBZ BTWN 25 AND 30. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
RESULTED IN MTN LOCATIONS FROM JAY PEAK TO STOWE TO SUGARBUSH
AREAS RECEIVING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF A WEAK SFC TROF...STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES...AND
GOOD LLVL MOISTURE PROFILES HAVE HELPED PRODUCE THESE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...BUT ACTIVITY WL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 5 PM.

FCST CHALLENGE WL BE AMOUNT OF CLRING AND HOW COLD TO GO
TONIGHT...AS LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NEAR ZERO IN THE COLDER
PROTECTED MTN VALLEYS. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES 1026MB HIGH PRES JUST
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH LATEST 3HR PRES TRENDS SHOWING THIS
SYSTEM BUILDING TWD NORTHERN NY. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS MAINLY CLR SKIES
UPSTREAM UNDER THIS FEATURE...WHICH ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO LAST NIGHT IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS. GIVEN FRESH
SNOW PACK...PARTIAL CLRING FOR PART OF THE NIGHT...AND LIGHT WINDS
THRU 06Z...TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY WITH READINGS RANGING NEAR 0F FOR
THE NEK VALLEYS/SLK TO VALUES BTWN 10 AND 20F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
SOUNDINGS CONT TO SHOW SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE BTWN 925MB AND 850MB
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN SOME CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY MTN ZNS...WHICH WL
PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THE MAV NUMBERS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE LAKE CHAMPLAIN CLOUDS GIVEN VERY COLD AIRMASS WITH SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES POSSIBLE IMPACTING SHELBURNE TO SHOREHAM OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY..A LARGE SWING IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FROM
A COLD MORNING ON SATURDAY TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG LLVL WAA/FGEN FORCING FROM 850 TO
700MB...GOOD RIBBON OF RH >80%...AND SOME 5H ENERGY WL PRODUCE A
BAND OF SNOW ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WITH QPF <
0.10". USING THE RH FIELDS AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGGS
PLACES THE SNOW BAND ACRS THE SOUTHERN SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z-
21Z SAT...INTO THE NORTHERN DACKS AND CPV AROUND 00Z SUNDAY...AND
IMPACTING CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z-06Z SUNDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW
GOOD RH/OMEGA AND FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ALL INTERSECTING EACH
OTHER...SUPPORTING BIG FLAKE SIZE. EXPECTING ONLY A 1 TO 3 HOUR
WINDOW OF PRECIP LATE SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WARM FRNT FEATURE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN -8C AND -10C ON
SAT...BUT WARM TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS LLVL WAA COMBINED
WITH INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS WL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING
OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUNDAY...WITH COLDEST READINGS IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WHERE THE COLD AIR REMAINS
TRAPPED. WL MENTION HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO L30S ON
SATURDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NEK/EASTERN VT
TO NEAR 30F CPV/SLV...WITH TEMPS WARMING TWD 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS WL
INCREASE SHARPLY AFT 00Z SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MTN SUMMITS
ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TO 850MB JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...HELPING TO
ADVECT THE WARMER AIR INTO OUR CWA.

FOR SUNDAY...THICKNESS AND LLVL TEMPS INCREASE QUICKLY UNDER BOARD
SW FLW...WHILE BEST 850 TO 500MB RH IS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN SFC AND 850MB ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH WEAK UVVS FIELDS...SO THINKING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WL BE LIKELY...WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BTWN 1800 FEET
AND 2500 FT THRU 18Z SUNDAY...BEFORE ENTIRE THERMAL PROFILE WARMS
ABOVE 0C. ALSO...HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR COLD
AIR TO GET TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF VT ON SUNDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. ICE
ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ANTICIPATED
ATTM. TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTN WL WARM INTO THE 40S SLV/CPV WITH
MID/UPPER LVL NEK/MTNS. A VERY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS....AHEAD OF SHARP SFC BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WL
INCREASE THE CHCS FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AFT 06Z...ALONG WITH
FALLING TEMPS ACRS NORTHERN NY TWD 12Z MONDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRNT THRU 12Z MONDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A WEEK OF FAST-CHANGING
WEATHER. 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IN DECENT AGREEMENT UP TO WEDNESDAY,
THEN THE GFS AND ECMWF GO THEIR OWN WAY. HAVE STUCK WITH A BLEND
FOR MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, AND LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AFTER
THAT. RAMBLING THOUGHTS FOR EACH DAY ARE BELOW:

MONDAY: SHARP COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE MORNING (IF NOT A BIT EARLIER). ASSUMING WE`VE GOT
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CORRECT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 6AM-10AM, AND THEN FALL. SO EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST
WORDS MAY SAY "HIGH OF 40", THE REALITY IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S! COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND JUST BEHIND IT AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT, BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. INITIALLY RAIN SHOWERS, BUT WILL
TURN QUICKLY TO SNOW SHOWERS -- AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON BE FOCUSSED
MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PERHAPS A DUSTING IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND AN INCH OR SO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VERY
PROGRESSIVE/FAST FLOW PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE DOES
HAVE IT`S SOURCE IN FAR NORTHWEST CANADA AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -18C. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 0F TO +15F RANGE HERE AT GROUND LEVEL. BY THE
WAY, THE PRESSURE IN THE CENTER OF THAT HIGH WILL BE ABOUT 1044MB
(30.82").

TUESDAY: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH TO OUR EAST, BUT
KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER US FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE, HIGHS EVERYWHERE WILL
BE SUB-FREEZING. PERHAPS JUST MID 20S FOR THE "WARMER" VALLEYS.
THIS IS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. IN GENERAL, WE`LL
PROBABLY SEE A QUICK FALL OF TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EVENING AND
THEN STEADY/SLOW RISE LATER AT NIGHT. TIMING OF THE RETURN FLOW
THIS FAR OUT IS QUITE DIFFICULT, SO JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLEND FOR
LOWS. SO GENERALLY 10-20F, COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
RATHER HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURE BUSTS IN THIS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY: LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OF 40-50KT DEVELOPING. THIS
STRONG JET WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT -- AND THUS MAKE FOR
ISSUES WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. LIKED THE ECMWF DEPICTION OF THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (925MB TEMPERATURES +1 TO +3C BY 18Z), AND
THUS EXPECT INTIAL BOUT OF LIGHT SNOW TO TURN INTO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SLEET BEFORE TURNING INTO A BOUT OF LIGHT RAIN. CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PARTS OF EASTERN
VERMONT WHERE COLD AIR REMAINS STUCK IN VARIOUS NOOKS AND
CREVICES. SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS INDICATE THE LIKLIHOOD OF COLD AIR DAMMING DOWN ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. ALL OF THIS TRANSITION SHOULD HAPPEN IN 6-8 HOURS
TIME. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE CHAMPLAIN & ST LAWRENCE
VALLEYS WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS
FROM FULLY MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THOUGH THIS WILL BE A MIX OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/3", SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANYTHING MAJOR. THE "WARM UP" WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE FAST MOVING
LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH. THUS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING. ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL END AS SNOW.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE, LIKED THE ECMWF SOLUTION OVER
THE GFS. IN THIS SCENARIO, ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG (BUT ONLY 1035MB
THIS TIME) HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS IN AND PUSHES THE COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH. LEADS TO A DRY THURSDAY, AND MOST OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER
WITH THE HIGH PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, OUR FLOW AGAIN
TURNS SOUTHERLY AND STARTS BRINGING UP THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON, I DID PUT IN SOME
LOW POPS (20-30%) AND PAINTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TO CONTRAST,
THE GFS NEVER PUSHES THAT WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT TOO FAR AWAY. THE
HIGH IT BRINGS IN FOR THURSDAY IS TO OUR NORTH, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNNING THE FRONT RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (IN THE FORM OF A WINTER MIX) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THERE WAS NOT ANY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN, SO WHAT THAT ALL MEANS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CURRENTLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE
REGION. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
A FEW SPOTS SEE VERY SHORT PERIODS OF IFR WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO
1-2SM. FROM AN AIPORT FORECAST PERSPECTIVE, THINK SLK AND MPV
STAND THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE SOME OF THOSE BRIEF IFR BURSTS.

WITH SUNSET, THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD FADE AWAY. EXPECTING MUCH
OF THE CLOUDS TO ALSO DISSIPATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, THUS
PROJECTING VFR AREA WIDE.

CLOUDS START INCREASING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, INITIALLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT LOWERING TO 3500-5000 FEET BY 18Z. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL 18Z OR JUST THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITION SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPTIATION OR DRIZZLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH
MVFR/IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 282043
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
343 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN COLD TEMPERATURES AND
CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO IN THE COLDER
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS TO UPPER TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A WARM
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING BY AFTERNOON. A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...INTERESTING AFTN ACRS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS. HAVE REPORTS OF VIS
QUICKLY DROPPING BLW 1/4SM IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWING DBZ BTWN 25 AND 30. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
RESULTED IN MTN LOCATIONS FROM JAY PEAK TO STOWE TO SUGARBUSH
AREAS RECEIVING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF A WEAK SFC TROF...STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES...AND
GOOD LLVL MOISTURE PROFILES HAVE HELPED PRODUCE THESE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...BUT ACTIVITY WL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 5 PM.

FCST CHALLENGE WL BE AMOUNT OF CLRING AND HOW COLD TO GO
TONIGHT...AS LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NEAR ZERO IN THE COLDER
PROTECTED MTN VALLEYS. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES 1026MB HIGH PRES JUST
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH LATEST 3HR PRES TRENDS SHOWING THIS
SYSTEM BUILDING TWD NORTHERN NY. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS MAINLY CLR SKIES
UPSTREAM UNDER THIS FEATURE...WHICH ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO LAST NIGHT IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS. GIVEN FRESH
SNOW PACK...PARTIAL CLRING FOR PART OF THE NIGHT...AND LIGHT WINDS
THRU 06Z...TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY WITH READINGS RANGING NEAR 0F FOR
THE NEK VALLEYS/SLK TO VALUES BTWN 10 AND 20F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
SOUNDINGS CONT TO SHOW SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE BTWN 925MB AND 850MB
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN SOME CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY MTN ZNS...WHICH WL
PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THE MAV NUMBERS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE LAKE CHAMPLAIN CLOUDS GIVEN VERY COLD AIRMASS WITH SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES POSSIBLE IMPACTING SHELBURNE TO SHOREHAM OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY..A LARGE SWING IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FROM
A COLD MORNING ON SATURDAY TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG LLVL WAA/FGEN FORCING FROM 850 TO
700MB...GOOD RIBBON OF RH >80%...AND SOME 5H ENERGY WL PRODUCE A
BAND OF SNOW ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WITH QPF <
0.10". USING THE RH FIELDS AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGGS
PLACES THE SNOW BAND ACRS THE SOUTHERN SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z-
21Z SAT...INTO THE NORTHERN DACKS AND CPV AROUND 00Z SUNDAY...AND
IMPACTING CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z-06Z SUNDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW
GOOD RH/OMEGA AND FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ALL INTERSECTING EACH
OTHER...SUPPORTING BIG FLAKE SIZE. EXPECTING ONLY A 1 TO 3 HOUR
WINDOW OF PRECIP LATE SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WARM FRNT FEATURE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN -8C AND -10C ON
SAT...BUT WARM TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS LLVL WAA COMBINED
WITH INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS WL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING
OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUNDAY...WITH COLDEST READINGS IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WHERE THE COLD AIR REMAINS
TRAPPED. WL MENTION HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO L30S ON
SATURDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NEK/EASTERN VT
TO NEAR 30F CPV/SLV...WITH TEMPS WARMING TWD 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS WL
INCREASE SHARPLY AFT 00Z SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MTN SUMMITS
ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TO 850MB JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...HELPING TO
ADVECT THE WARMER AIR INTO OUR CWA.

FOR SUNDAY...THICKNESS AND LLVL TEMPS INCREASE QUICKLY UNDER BOARD
SW FLW...WHILE BEST 850 TO 500MB RH IS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN SFC AND 850MB ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH WEAK UVVS FIELDS...SO THINKING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WL BE LIKELY...WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BTWN 1800 FEET
AND 2500 FT THRU 18Z SUNDAY...BEFORE ENTIRE THERMAL PROFILE WARMS
ABOVE 0C. ALSO...HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR COLD
AIR TO GET TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF VT ON SUNDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. ICE
ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ANTICIPATED
ATTM. TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTN WL WARM INTO THE 40S SLV/CPV WITH
MID/UPPER LVL NEK/MTNS. A VERY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS....AHEAD OF SHARP SFC BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WL
INCREASE THE CHCS FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AFT 06Z...ALONG WITH
FALLING TEMPS ACRS NORTHERN NY TWD 12Z MONDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRNT THRU 12Z MONDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A WEEK OF FAST-CHANGING
WEATHER. 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IN DECENT AGREEMENT UP TO WEDNESDAY,
THEN THE GFS AND ECMWF GO THEIR OWN WAY. HAVE STUCK WITH A BLEND
FOR MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, AND LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AFTER
THAT. RAMBLING THOUGHTS FOR EACH DAY ARE BELOW:

MONDAY: SHARP COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE MORNING (IF NOT A BIT EARLIER). ASSUMING WE`VE GOT
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CORRECT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 6AM-10AM, AND THEN FALL. SO EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST
WORDS MAY SAY "HIGH OF 40", THE REALITY IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S! COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND JUST BEHIND IT AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT, BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. INITIALLY RAIN SHOWERS, BUT WILL
TURN QUICKLY TO SNOW SHOWERS -- AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON BE FOCUSSED
MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PERHAPS A DUSTING IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND AN INCH OR SO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VERY
PROGRESSIVE/FAST FLOW PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE DOES
HAVE IT`S SOURCE IN FAR NORTHWEST CANADA AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -18C. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 0F TO +15F RANGE HERE AT GROUND LEVEL. BY THE
WAY, THE PRESSURE IN THE CENTER OF THAT HIGH WILL BE ABOUT 1044MB
(30.82").

TUESDAY: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH TO OUR EAST, BUT
KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER US FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE, HIGHS EVERYWHERE WILL
BE SUB-FREEZING. PERHAPS JUST MID 20S FOR THE "WARMER" VALLEYS.
THIS IS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. IN GENERAL, WE`LL
PROBABLY SEE A QUICK FALL OF TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EVENING AND
THEN STEADY/SLOW RISE LATER AT NIGHT. TIMING OF THE RETURN FLOW
THIS FAR OUT IS QUITE DIFFICULT, SO JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLEND FOR
LOWS. SO GENERALLY 10-20F, COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
RATHER HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURE BUSTS IN THIS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY: LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OF 40-50KT DEVELOPING. THIS
STRONG JET WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT -- AND THUS MAKE FOR
ISSUES WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. LIKED THE ECMWF DEPICTION OF THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (925MB TEMPERATURES +1 TO +3C BY 18Z), AND
THUS EXPECT INTIAL BOUT OF LIGHT SNOW TO TURN INTO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SLEET BEFORE TURNING INTO A BOUT OF LIGHT RAIN. CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PARTS OF EASTERN
VERMONT WHERE COLD AIR REMAINS STUCK IN VARIOUS NOOKS AND
CREVICES. SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS INDICATE THE LIKLIHOOD OF COLD AIR DAMMING DOWN ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. ALL OF THIS TRANSITION SHOULD HAPPEN IN 6-8 HOURS
TIME. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE CHAMPLAIN & ST LAWRENCE
VALLEYS WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS
FROM FULLY MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THOUGH THIS WILL BE A MIX OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/3", SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANYTHING MAJOR. THE "WARM UP" WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE FAST MOVING
LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH. THUS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING. ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL END AS SNOW.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE, LIKED THE ECMWF SOLUTION OVER
THE GFS. IN THIS SCENARIO, ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG (BUT ONLY 1035MB
THIS TIME) HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS IN AND PUSHES THE COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH. LEADS TO A DRY THURSDAY, AND MOST OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER
WITH THE HIGH PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, OUR FLOW AGAIN
TURNS SOUTHERLY AND STARTS BRINGING UP THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON, I DID PUT IN SOME
LOW POPS (20-30%) AND PAINTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TO CONTRAST,
THE GFS NEVER PUSHES THAT WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT TOO FAR AWAY. THE
HIGH IT BRINGS IN FOR THURSDAY IS TO OUR NORTH, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNNING THE FRONT RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (IN THE FORM OF A WINTER MIX) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THERE WAS NOT ANY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN, SO WHAT THAT ALL MEANS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CURRENTLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE
REGION. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
A FEW SPOTS SEE VERY SHORT PERIODS OF IFR WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO
1-2SM. FROM AN AIPORT FORECAST PERSPECTIVE, THINK SLK AND MPV
STAND THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE SOME OF THOSE BRIEF IFR BURSTS.

WITH SUNSET, THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD FADE AWAY. EXPECTING MUCH
OF THE CLOUDS TO ALSO DISSIPATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, THUS
PROJECTING VFR AREA WIDE.

CLOUDS START INCREASING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, INITIALLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT LOWERING TO 3500-5000 FEET BY 18Z. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL 18Z OR JUST THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITION SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPTIATION OR DRIZZLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH
MVFR/IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 282043
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
343 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN COLD TEMPERATURES AND
CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO IN THE COLDER
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS TO UPPER TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A WARM
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING BY AFTERNOON. A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...INTERESTING AFTN ACRS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS. HAVE REPORTS OF VIS
QUICKLY DROPPING BLW 1/4SM IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWING DBZ BTWN 25 AND 30. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
RESULTED IN MTN LOCATIONS FROM JAY PEAK TO STOWE TO SUGARBUSH
AREAS RECEIVING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF A WEAK SFC TROF...STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES...AND
GOOD LLVL MOISTURE PROFILES HAVE HELPED PRODUCE THESE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...BUT ACTIVITY WL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 5 PM.

FCST CHALLENGE WL BE AMOUNT OF CLRING AND HOW COLD TO GO
TONIGHT...AS LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NEAR ZERO IN THE COLDER
PROTECTED MTN VALLEYS. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES 1026MB HIGH PRES JUST
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH LATEST 3HR PRES TRENDS SHOWING THIS
SYSTEM BUILDING TWD NORTHERN NY. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS MAINLY CLR SKIES
UPSTREAM UNDER THIS FEATURE...WHICH ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO LAST NIGHT IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS. GIVEN FRESH
SNOW PACK...PARTIAL CLRING FOR PART OF THE NIGHT...AND LIGHT WINDS
THRU 06Z...TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY WITH READINGS RANGING NEAR 0F FOR
THE NEK VALLEYS/SLK TO VALUES BTWN 10 AND 20F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
SOUNDINGS CONT TO SHOW SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE BTWN 925MB AND 850MB
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN SOME CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY MTN ZNS...WHICH WL
PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THE MAV NUMBERS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE LAKE CHAMPLAIN CLOUDS GIVEN VERY COLD AIRMASS WITH SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES POSSIBLE IMPACTING SHELBURNE TO SHOREHAM OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY..A LARGE SWING IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FROM
A COLD MORNING ON SATURDAY TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG LLVL WAA/FGEN FORCING FROM 850 TO
700MB...GOOD RIBBON OF RH >80%...AND SOME 5H ENERGY WL PRODUCE A
BAND OF SNOW ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WITH QPF <
0.10". USING THE RH FIELDS AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGGS
PLACES THE SNOW BAND ACRS THE SOUTHERN SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z-
21Z SAT...INTO THE NORTHERN DACKS AND CPV AROUND 00Z SUNDAY...AND
IMPACTING CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z-06Z SUNDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW
GOOD RH/OMEGA AND FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ALL INTERSECTING EACH
OTHER...SUPPORTING BIG FLAKE SIZE. EXPECTING ONLY A 1 TO 3 HOUR
WINDOW OF PRECIP LATE SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WARM FRNT FEATURE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN -8C AND -10C ON
SAT...BUT WARM TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS LLVL WAA COMBINED
WITH INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS WL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING
OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUNDAY...WITH COLDEST READINGS IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WHERE THE COLD AIR REMAINS
TRAPPED. WL MENTION HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO L30S ON
SATURDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NEK/EASTERN VT
TO NEAR 30F CPV/SLV...WITH TEMPS WARMING TWD 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS WL
INCREASE SHARPLY AFT 00Z SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MTN SUMMITS
ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TO 850MB JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...HELPING TO
ADVECT THE WARMER AIR INTO OUR CWA.

FOR SUNDAY...THICKNESS AND LLVL TEMPS INCREASE QUICKLY UNDER BOARD
SW FLW...WHILE BEST 850 TO 500MB RH IS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN SFC AND 850MB ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH WEAK UVVS FIELDS...SO THINKING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WL BE LIKELY...WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BTWN 1800 FEET
AND 2500 FT THRU 18Z SUNDAY...BEFORE ENTIRE THERMAL PROFILE WARMS
ABOVE 0C. ALSO...HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR COLD
AIR TO GET TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF VT ON SUNDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. ICE
ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ANTICIPATED
ATTM. TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTN WL WARM INTO THE 40S SLV/CPV WITH
MID/UPPER LVL NEK/MTNS. A VERY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS....AHEAD OF SHARP SFC BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WL
INCREASE THE CHCS FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AFT 06Z...ALONG WITH
FALLING TEMPS ACRS NORTHERN NY TWD 12Z MONDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRNT THRU 12Z MONDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A WEEK OF FAST-CHANGING
WEATHER. 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IN DECENT AGREEMENT UP TO WEDNESDAY,
THEN THE GFS AND ECMWF GO THEIR OWN WAY. HAVE STUCK WITH A BLEND
FOR MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, AND LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AFTER
THAT. RAMBLING THOUGHTS FOR EACH DAY ARE BELOW:

MONDAY: SHARP COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE MORNING (IF NOT A BIT EARLIER). ASSUMING WE`VE GOT
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CORRECT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 6AM-10AM, AND THEN FALL. SO EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST
WORDS MAY SAY "HIGH OF 40", THE REALITY IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S! COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND JUST BEHIND IT AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT, BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. INITIALLY RAIN SHOWERS, BUT WILL
TURN QUICKLY TO SNOW SHOWERS -- AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON BE FOCUSSED
MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PERHAPS A DUSTING IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND AN INCH OR SO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VERY
PROGRESSIVE/FAST FLOW PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE DOES
HAVE IT`S SOURCE IN FAR NORTHWEST CANADA AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -18C. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 0F TO +15F RANGE HERE AT GROUND LEVEL. BY THE
WAY, THE PRESSURE IN THE CENTER OF THAT HIGH WILL BE ABOUT 1044MB
(30.82").

TUESDAY: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH TO OUR EAST, BUT
KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER US FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE, HIGHS EVERYWHERE WILL
BE SUB-FREEZING. PERHAPS JUST MID 20S FOR THE "WARMER" VALLEYS.
THIS IS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. IN GENERAL, WE`LL
PROBABLY SEE A QUICK FALL OF TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EVENING AND
THEN STEADY/SLOW RISE LATER AT NIGHT. TIMING OF THE RETURN FLOW
THIS FAR OUT IS QUITE DIFFICULT, SO JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLEND FOR
LOWS. SO GENERALLY 10-20F, COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
RATHER HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURE BUSTS IN THIS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY: LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OF 40-50KT DEVELOPING. THIS
STRONG JET WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT -- AND THUS MAKE FOR
ISSUES WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. LIKED THE ECMWF DEPICTION OF THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (925MB TEMPERATURES +1 TO +3C BY 18Z), AND
THUS EXPECT INTIAL BOUT OF LIGHT SNOW TO TURN INTO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SLEET BEFORE TURNING INTO A BOUT OF LIGHT RAIN. CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PARTS OF EASTERN
VERMONT WHERE COLD AIR REMAINS STUCK IN VARIOUS NOOKS AND
CREVICES. SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS INDICATE THE LIKLIHOOD OF COLD AIR DAMMING DOWN ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. ALL OF THIS TRANSITION SHOULD HAPPEN IN 6-8 HOURS
TIME. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE CHAMPLAIN & ST LAWRENCE
VALLEYS WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS
FROM FULLY MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THOUGH THIS WILL BE A MIX OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/3", SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANYTHING MAJOR. THE "WARM UP" WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE FAST MOVING
LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH. THUS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING. ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL END AS SNOW.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE, LIKED THE ECMWF SOLUTION OVER
THE GFS. IN THIS SCENARIO, ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG (BUT ONLY 1035MB
THIS TIME) HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS IN AND PUSHES THE COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH. LEADS TO A DRY THURSDAY, AND MOST OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER
WITH THE HIGH PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, OUR FLOW AGAIN
TURNS SOUTHERLY AND STARTS BRINGING UP THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON, I DID PUT IN SOME
LOW POPS (20-30%) AND PAINTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TO CONTRAST,
THE GFS NEVER PUSHES THAT WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT TOO FAR AWAY. THE
HIGH IT BRINGS IN FOR THURSDAY IS TO OUR NORTH, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNNING THE FRONT RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (IN THE FORM OF A WINTER MIX) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THERE WAS NOT ANY
CONSISTENCY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN, SO WHAT THAT ALL MEANS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CURRENTLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE
REGION. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
A FEW SPOTS SEE VERY SHORT PERIODS OF IFR WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO
1-2SM. FROM AN AIPORT FORECAST PERSPECTIVE, THINK SLK AND MPV
STAND THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE SOME OF THOSE BRIEF IFR BURSTS.

WITH SUNSET, THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD FADE AWAY. EXPECTING MUCH
OF THE CLOUDS TO ALSO DISSIPATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, THUS
PROJECTING VFR AREA WIDE.

CLOUDS START INCREASING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, INITIALLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT LOWERING TO 3500-5000 FEET BY 18Z. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL 18Z OR JUST THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITION SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPTIATION OR DRIZZLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH
MVFR/IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KALY 281746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER
TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1246 PM EST...DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE NW FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF ER NY AND WRN
NEW ENGLAND. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WRN
MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN CATSKILLS...AND HELDERBERGS. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT FAR ENOUGH DOWNSTREAM INTO THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY AND TACONICS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN ACCUMULATION...BUT
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS TO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH 20
TO L30S. SUNSHINE CONTINUES TO MIX WITH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY FROM THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER 48.

PREV DISC...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DIMINISHING INTO TONIGHT...

MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK THROUGH THE DAY. PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...FAVORABLE INVERSION
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW LAKE BANDS TO TRACK
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THAT RIDGE THOUGH WILL LIMIT THE INLAND
EXTENT SOMEWHAT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE THE POPS MAINLY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN DACKS. AS
FOR THOSE CRUCIAL LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES...THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 280-310 PER THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT INLAND EXTENT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...A WARM FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TOO WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. SO WHERE
CLOUDS DO BREAK UP...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS BEFORE STEADYING OFF WITH THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT AND LIKELY HIGHER LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL
QPFS ARE RATHER LIGHT BUT DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPENDING
ON THERMAL PROFILES. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE BEST LIFT AND
LOW CPD/S WILL BE ACROSS THE DACKS REGION INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SO WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH
A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE WARMING THERMAL COLUMN...WE WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THEN INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ON SUNDAY. WE WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY ATTAINED IN THE
EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THIS FRONT WON/T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...BUT WILL ALLOW SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE UNCLEAR IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY.
IF IT WAITS UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY TO PASS THROUGH...TEMPS MAY WIND
UP BEING MILD FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS/.

BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ANY
PRECIP AND ALLOWS CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. WITH A COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK LIKE
THEY MAY WIND UP DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20 FOR MON
NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIP MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...PRECIP LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE TRANSITION...BUT
WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE GRIDS QUITE YET...AS THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS.  ANY PRECIP LOOKS
FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PREVENTING MUCH QPF IN GENERAL.
ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MINS TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. MINS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S.

ANOTHER BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY WILL QUIET AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLE...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS. ANY DRY
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF...AS YET ANOTHER STORM WITH LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE APPROACHING FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPETED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGHT HE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KPSF WHERE CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE...COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE A -SHSN AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT THESE SITES INTO THE EEVENING. MAINLY
JUST SCT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TAKES HOLD.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS AT KPSF/KALB THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
THROUGH TODAY...A LITTLE HIGHER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281743
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO BETTER
FIT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH THE LAKE
BAND. HAVE ALSO REDUCED THE AMLOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE HOURLY SKY
GRIDS IN ORDER TO REFLECT THE MANY BREAKS IN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
SHOWN IN THE STLT PICS.

PREV DISC...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL AND LOCAL RADAR REVEAL VERY LIGHT
RETURNS OF THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FORWARD
MOVEMENT...THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AOA 12Z. THIS SHOULD ELIMINATE THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER AND MEAN FLOW BECOME WESTERLY ALONG
WITH COLD ADVECTION /H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD -15C/...LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK THROUGH THE DAY. PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...FAVORABLE INVERSION
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW LAKE BANDS TO TRACK
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THAT RIDGE THOUGH WILL LIMIT THE INLAND
EXTENT SOMEWHAT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE THE POPS MAINLY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN DACKS. AS
FOR THOSE CRUCIAL LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES...THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 280-310 PER THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR.

DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF
REGION...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT INLAND EXTENT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...A WARM FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TOO WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. SO WHERE
CLOUDS DO BREAK UP...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS BEFORE STEADYING OFF WITH THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT AND LIKELY HIGHER LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL
QPFS ARE RATHER LIGHT BUT DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPENDING
ON THERMAL PROFILES. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE BEST LIFT AND
LOW CPD/S WILL BE ACROSS THE DACKS REGION INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SO WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH
A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE WARMING THERMAL COLUMN...WE WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THEN INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ON SUNDAY. WE WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY ATTAINED IN THE
EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THIS FRONT WON/T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...BUT WILL ALLOW SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE UNCLEAR IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY.
IF IT WAITS UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY TO PASS THROUGH...TEMPS MAY WIND
UP BEING MILD FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS/.

BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ANY
PRECIP AND ALLOWS CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. WITH A COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK LIKE
THEY MAY WIND UP DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20 FOR MON
NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIP MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...PRECIP LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE TRANSITION...BUT
WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE GRIDS QUITE YET...AS THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS.  ANY PRECIP LOOKS
FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PREVENTING MUCH QPF IN GENERAL.
ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MINS TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. MINS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S.

ANOTHER BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY WILL QUIET AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLE...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS. ANY DRY
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF...AS YET ANOTHER STORM WITH LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE APPROACHING FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPETED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGHT HE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KPSF WHERE CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE...COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE A -SHSN AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT THESE SITES INTO THE EEVENING. MAINLY
JUST SCT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TAKES HOLD.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS AT KPSF/KALB THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
THROUGH TODAY...A LITTLE HIGHER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY WEDNESDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THIS MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY











000
FXUS61 KALY 281743
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO BETTER
FIT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH THE LAKE
BAND. HAVE ALSO REDUCED THE AMLOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE HOURLY SKY
GRIDS IN ORDER TO REFLECT THE MANY BREAKS IN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
SHOWN IN THE STLT PICS.

PREV DISC...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL AND LOCAL RADAR REVEAL VERY LIGHT
RETURNS OF THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FORWARD
MOVEMENT...THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AOA 12Z. THIS SHOULD ELIMINATE THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER AND MEAN FLOW BECOME WESTERLY ALONG
WITH COLD ADVECTION /H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD -15C/...LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK THROUGH THE DAY. PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...FAVORABLE INVERSION
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW LAKE BANDS TO TRACK
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THAT RIDGE THOUGH WILL LIMIT THE INLAND
EXTENT SOMEWHAT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE THE POPS MAINLY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN DACKS. AS
FOR THOSE CRUCIAL LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES...THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 280-310 PER THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR.

DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF
REGION...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT INLAND EXTENT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...A WARM FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TOO WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. SO WHERE
CLOUDS DO BREAK UP...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS BEFORE STEADYING OFF WITH THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT AND LIKELY HIGHER LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL
QPFS ARE RATHER LIGHT BUT DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPENDING
ON THERMAL PROFILES. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE BEST LIFT AND
LOW CPD/S WILL BE ACROSS THE DACKS REGION INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SO WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH
A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE WARMING THERMAL COLUMN...WE WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THEN INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ON SUNDAY. WE WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY ATTAINED IN THE
EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THIS FRONT WON/T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...BUT WILL ALLOW SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE UNCLEAR IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY.
IF IT WAITS UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY TO PASS THROUGH...TEMPS MAY WIND
UP BEING MILD FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS/.

BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ANY
PRECIP AND ALLOWS CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. WITH A COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK LIKE
THEY MAY WIND UP DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20 FOR MON
NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIP MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...PRECIP LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE TRANSITION...BUT
WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE GRIDS QUITE YET...AS THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS.  ANY PRECIP LOOKS
FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PREVENTING MUCH QPF IN GENERAL.
ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MINS TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. MINS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S.

ANOTHER BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY WILL QUIET AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLE...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS. ANY DRY
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF...AS YET ANOTHER STORM WITH LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE APPROACHING FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPETED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGHT HE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KPSF WHERE CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE...COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE A -SHSN AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT THESE SITES INTO THE EEVENING. MAINLY
JUST SCT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TAKES HOLD.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS AT KPSF/KALB THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
THROUGH TODAY...A LITTLE HIGHER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY WEDNESDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THIS MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY











000
FXUS61 KALY 281743
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO BETTER
FIT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH THE LAKE
BAND. HAVE ALSO REDUCED THE AMLOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE HOURLY SKY
GRIDS IN ORDER TO REFLECT THE MANY BREAKS IN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
SHOWN IN THE STLT PICS.

PREV DISC...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL AND LOCAL RADAR REVEAL VERY LIGHT
RETURNS OF THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FORWARD
MOVEMENT...THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AOA 12Z. THIS SHOULD ELIMINATE THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER AND MEAN FLOW BECOME WESTERLY ALONG
WITH COLD ADVECTION /H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD -15C/...LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK THROUGH THE DAY. PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...FAVORABLE INVERSION
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW LAKE BANDS TO TRACK
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THAT RIDGE THOUGH WILL LIMIT THE INLAND
EXTENT SOMEWHAT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE THE POPS MAINLY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN DACKS. AS
FOR THOSE CRUCIAL LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES...THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 280-310 PER THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR.

DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF
REGION...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT INLAND EXTENT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...A WARM FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TOO WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. SO WHERE
CLOUDS DO BREAK UP...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS BEFORE STEADYING OFF WITH THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT AND LIKELY HIGHER LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL
QPFS ARE RATHER LIGHT BUT DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPENDING
ON THERMAL PROFILES. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE BEST LIFT AND
LOW CPD/S WILL BE ACROSS THE DACKS REGION INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SO WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH
A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE WARMING THERMAL COLUMN...WE WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THEN INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ON SUNDAY. WE WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY ATTAINED IN THE
EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THIS FRONT WON/T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...BUT WILL ALLOW SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE UNCLEAR IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY.
IF IT WAITS UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY TO PASS THROUGH...TEMPS MAY WIND
UP BEING MILD FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS/.

BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ANY
PRECIP AND ALLOWS CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. WITH A COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK LIKE
THEY MAY WIND UP DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20 FOR MON
NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIP MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...PRECIP LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE TRANSITION...BUT
WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE GRIDS QUITE YET...AS THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS.  ANY PRECIP LOOKS
FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PREVENTING MUCH QPF IN GENERAL.
ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MINS TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. MINS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S.

ANOTHER BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY WILL QUIET AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLE...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS. ANY DRY
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF...AS YET ANOTHER STORM WITH LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE APPROACHING FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPETED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGHT HE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KPSF WHERE CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE...COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE A -SHSN AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT THESE SITES INTO THE EEVENING. MAINLY
JUST SCT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TAKES HOLD.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS AT KPSF/KALB THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
THROUGH TODAY...A LITTLE HIGHER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY WEDNESDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THIS MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY











000
FXUS61 KALY 281743
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO BETTER
FIT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH THE LAKE
BAND. HAVE ALSO REDUCED THE AMLOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE HOURLY SKY
GRIDS IN ORDER TO REFLECT THE MANY BREAKS IN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
SHOWN IN THE STLT PICS.

PREV DISC...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL AND LOCAL RADAR REVEAL VERY LIGHT
RETURNS OF THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FORWARD
MOVEMENT...THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AOA 12Z. THIS SHOULD ELIMINATE THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER AND MEAN FLOW BECOME WESTERLY ALONG
WITH COLD ADVECTION /H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD -15C/...LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK THROUGH THE DAY. PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...FAVORABLE INVERSION
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW LAKE BANDS TO TRACK
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THAT RIDGE THOUGH WILL LIMIT THE INLAND
EXTENT SOMEWHAT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE THE POPS MAINLY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN DACKS. AS
FOR THOSE CRUCIAL LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES...THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 280-310 PER THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR.

DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF
REGION...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT INLAND EXTENT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...A WARM FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TOO WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. SO WHERE
CLOUDS DO BREAK UP...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS BEFORE STEADYING OFF WITH THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT AND LIKELY HIGHER LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL
QPFS ARE RATHER LIGHT BUT DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPENDING
ON THERMAL PROFILES. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE BEST LIFT AND
LOW CPD/S WILL BE ACROSS THE DACKS REGION INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SO WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH
A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE WARMING THERMAL COLUMN...WE WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THEN INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ON SUNDAY. WE WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY ATTAINED IN THE
EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THIS FRONT WON/T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...BUT WILL ALLOW SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE UNCLEAR IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY.
IF IT WAITS UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY TO PASS THROUGH...TEMPS MAY WIND
UP BEING MILD FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS/.

BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ANY
PRECIP AND ALLOWS CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. WITH A COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK LIKE
THEY MAY WIND UP DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20 FOR MON
NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIP MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...PRECIP LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE TRANSITION...BUT
WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE GRIDS QUITE YET...AS THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS.  ANY PRECIP LOOKS
FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PREVENTING MUCH QPF IN GENERAL.
ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MINS TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. MINS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S.

ANOTHER BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY WILL QUIET AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLE...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS. ANY DRY
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF...AS YET ANOTHER STORM WITH LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE APPROACHING FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPETED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGHT HE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KPSF WHERE CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE...COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE A -SHSN AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT THESE SITES INTO THE EEVENING. MAINLY
JUST SCT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TAKES HOLD.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS AT KPSF/KALB THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
THROUGH TODAY...A LITTLE HIGHER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY WEDNESDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THIS MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY











000
FXUS61 KBTV 281741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL THEN DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1223 PM EST FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACRS THE DACKS INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT THIS AFTN. HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS THRU 20Z TODAY...ALONG WITH ADJUSTING FOR LATEST SKY COVER.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE
HEAVIER ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS THRU THIS AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY IS A
RESULT OF SFC HEATING...CREATING INCREASED LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY
AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN 950MB AND 800MB. THE COMBINATION OF
COOLING TEMPS...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND SFC TROF
PASSING TO OUR EAST WL RESULT IN LESS ACTIVITY BY LATE THIS AFTN.
TEMPS WL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH HIGHS
FROM NEAR 10F SUMMITS TO 20F SLK TO 30F AT BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EST FRIDAY..RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH RECENT SNOWS...THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY MORNING
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE.
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE MERCURY DIP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
15F...AND WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SUBZERO READINGS EAST
OF THE GREENS.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
FLOW ALOFT. PROBLEM BECOMES PRECIPITATION TYPE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
06Z SUNDAY WHEN MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING IN MID
LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WARM ENOUGH IN
LOW LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS IN SAINT
LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY STILL ON THE
CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON BRISK
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...DESPITE
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EST FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC INTO
NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON FROPA TIMING INDICATING FRONT WILL BE THROUGH
THE BTV CWA BY 18Z MONDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AT THE TAIL
END OF THE PRECIP MID-DAY MONDAY. WITH THE EARLY FROPA...EXPECT
HIGHS TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM
THE 40S MORNING TO 30S AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND ONLY RISING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AS WELL BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE SURFACE TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW TURN SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TO OUR WEST. REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
PUSHES NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL ASCENT BEING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH SO
THINK A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKELY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD
THURSDAY CENTERING OVER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CURRENTLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE
REGION. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
A FEW SPOTS SEE VERY SHORT PERIODS OF IFR WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO
1-2SM. FROM AN AIPORT FORECAST PERSPECTIVE, THINK SLK AND MPV
STAND THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE SOME OF THOSE BRIEF IFR BURSTS.

WITH SUNSET, THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD FADE AWAY. EXPECTING MUCH
OF THE CLOUDS TO ALSO DISSIPATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, THUS
PROJECTING VFR AREA WIDE.

CLOUDS START INCREASING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, INITIALLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT LOWERING TO 3500-5000 FEET BY 18Z. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL 18Z OR JUST THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITION SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPTIATION OR DRIZZLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH
MVFR/IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL THEN DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1223 PM EST FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACRS THE DACKS INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT THIS AFTN. HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS THRU 20Z TODAY...ALONG WITH ADJUSTING FOR LATEST SKY COVER.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE
HEAVIER ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS THRU THIS AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY IS A
RESULT OF SFC HEATING...CREATING INCREASED LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY
AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN 950MB AND 800MB. THE COMBINATION OF
COOLING TEMPS...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND SFC TROF
PASSING TO OUR EAST WL RESULT IN LESS ACTIVITY BY LATE THIS AFTN.
TEMPS WL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH HIGHS
FROM NEAR 10F SUMMITS TO 20F SLK TO 30F AT BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EST FRIDAY..RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH RECENT SNOWS...THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY MORNING
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE.
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE MERCURY DIP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
15F...AND WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SUBZERO READINGS EAST
OF THE GREENS.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
FLOW ALOFT. PROBLEM BECOMES PRECIPITATION TYPE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
06Z SUNDAY WHEN MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING IN MID
LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WARM ENOUGH IN
LOW LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS IN SAINT
LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY STILL ON THE
CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON BRISK
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...DESPITE
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EST FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC INTO
NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON FROPA TIMING INDICATING FRONT WILL BE THROUGH
THE BTV CWA BY 18Z MONDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AT THE TAIL
END OF THE PRECIP MID-DAY MONDAY. WITH THE EARLY FROPA...EXPECT
HIGHS TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM
THE 40S MORNING TO 30S AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND ONLY RISING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AS WELL BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE SURFACE TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW TURN SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TO OUR WEST. REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
PUSHES NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL ASCENT BEING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH SO
THINK A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKELY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD
THURSDAY CENTERING OVER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CURRENTLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE
REGION. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
A FEW SPOTS SEE VERY SHORT PERIODS OF IFR WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO
1-2SM. FROM AN AIPORT FORECAST PERSPECTIVE, THINK SLK AND MPV
STAND THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE SOME OF THOSE BRIEF IFR BURSTS.

WITH SUNSET, THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD FADE AWAY. EXPECTING MUCH
OF THE CLOUDS TO ALSO DISSIPATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, THUS
PROJECTING VFR AREA WIDE.

CLOUDS START INCREASING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, INITIALLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT LOWERING TO 3500-5000 FEET BY 18Z. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL 18Z OR JUST THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITION SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPTIATION OR DRIZZLE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH
MVFR/IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NASH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 281729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1229 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL THEN DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1223 PM EST FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACRS THE DACKS INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT THIS AFTN. HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS THRU 20Z TODAY...ALONG WITH ADJUSTING FOR LATEST SKY COVER.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE
HEAVIER ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS THRU THIS AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY IS A
RESULT OF SFC HEATING...CREATING INCREASED LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY
AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN 950MB AND 800MB. THE COMBINATION OF
COOLING TEMPS...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND SFC TROF
PASSING TO OUR EAST WL RESULT IN LESS ACTIVITY BY LATE THIS AFTN.
TEMPS WL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH HIGHS
FROM NEAR 10F SUMMITS TO 20F SLK TO 30F AT BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EST FRIDAY..RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH RECENT SNOWS...THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY MORNING
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE.
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE MERCURY DIP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
15F...AND WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SUBZERO READINGS EAST
OF THE GREENS.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
FLOW ALOFT. PROBLEM BECOMES PRECIPITATION TYPE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
06Z SUNDAY WHEN MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING IN MID
LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WARM ENOUGH IN
LOW LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS IN SAINT
LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY STILL ON THE
CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON BRISK
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...DESPITE
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EST FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC INTO
NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON FROPA TIMING INDICATING FRONT WILL BE THROUGH
THE BTV CWA BY 18Z MONDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AT THE TAIL
END OF THE PRECIP MID-DAY MONDAY. WITH THE EARLY FROPA...EXPECT
HIGHS TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM
THE 40S MORNING TO 30S AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND ONLY RISING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AS WELL BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE SURFACE TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW TURN SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TO OUR WEST. REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
PUSHES NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL ASCENT BEING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH SO
THINK A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKELY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD
THURSDAY CENTERING OVER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...IFR VSBY SNOW CONTINUES AT KBTV AND KMPV
FOR ABOUT AN HOUR LONGER WITH MVFR CIGS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT KMSS AND
KPBG. AFTER 13Z...VSBY TREND TO VFR AND MVFR CIGS TREND TO VFR BY
MID-DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. PROBABLY SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. CLEARER SKIES WILL BE NOTED ON ACROSS THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND ALSO IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS EVENING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN MID CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...SCT-BKN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN MVFR/IFR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1229 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL THEN DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1223 PM EST FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACRS THE DACKS INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT THIS AFTN. HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS THRU 20Z TODAY...ALONG WITH ADJUSTING FOR LATEST SKY COVER.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE
HEAVIER ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS THRU THIS AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY IS A
RESULT OF SFC HEATING...CREATING INCREASED LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY
AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN 950MB AND 800MB. THE COMBINATION OF
COOLING TEMPS...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND SFC TROF
PASSING TO OUR EAST WL RESULT IN LESS ACTIVITY BY LATE THIS AFTN.
TEMPS WL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH HIGHS
FROM NEAR 10F SUMMITS TO 20F SLK TO 30F AT BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EST FRIDAY..RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH RECENT SNOWS...THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY MORNING
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE.
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE MERCURY DIP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
15F...AND WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SUBZERO READINGS EAST
OF THE GREENS.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
FLOW ALOFT. PROBLEM BECOMES PRECIPITATION TYPE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
06Z SUNDAY WHEN MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING IN MID
LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WARM ENOUGH IN
LOW LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS IN SAINT
LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY STILL ON THE
CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON BRISK
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...DESPITE
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EST FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC INTO
NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON FROPA TIMING INDICATING FRONT WILL BE THROUGH
THE BTV CWA BY 18Z MONDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AT THE TAIL
END OF THE PRECIP MID-DAY MONDAY. WITH THE EARLY FROPA...EXPECT
HIGHS TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM
THE 40S MORNING TO 30S AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND ONLY RISING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AS WELL BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE SURFACE TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW TURN SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TO OUR WEST. REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
PUSHES NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL ASCENT BEING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH SO
THINK A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKELY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD
THURSDAY CENTERING OVER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...IFR VSBY SNOW CONTINUES AT KBTV AND KMPV
FOR ABOUT AN HOUR LONGER WITH MVFR CIGS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT KMSS AND
KPBG. AFTER 13Z...VSBY TREND TO VFR AND MVFR CIGS TREND TO VFR BY
MID-DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. PROBABLY SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. CLEARER SKIES WILL BE NOTED ON ACROSS THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND ALSO IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS EVENING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN MID CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...SCT-BKN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN MVFR/IFR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 281442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
942 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL THEN DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 935 AM EST FRIDAY...HAVE UPDATED FCST TO ADJUST POPS
SLIGHTLY...AND CAPTURE CRNT TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30% OR
SO FOR THE DACKS/NORTHERN SLV FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
CONTINUED WITH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT ZNS...INCLUDING THE
NEK THRU 16Z TODAY. DEEPER RH PROGS ARE QUICKLY LIFTING NE OF OUR
CWA THIS MORNING...WHILE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LLVL CAA IS
DEVELOPING BEHIND S/W ENERGY. HAVE NOTED A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRNT/BOUNDARY ENTERING THE SLV ATTM...AND HELPING PRODUCE A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER WITH VIS AT 3SM AT KMSS. THIS WL QUICKLY MOVE ACRS OUR
CWA THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE NORTHERN CPV. BLOCKED FLW CONTS
THRU 18Z WITH FROUNDE #`S AROUND 0.50...RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW
ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED IN THE CPV AND WESTERN SLOPES. AREAL
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WL DECREASE THIS AFTN WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO OUR FA. EXPECT COLD SUMMIT TEMPS TODAY WITH WHITEFACE HAVING
A CRNT TEMP OF 7F...AND ONLY WARMING TO NEAR 10F BY THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S MTNS
VALLEYS TO NEAR 30F CPV/CT RIVER VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME...AS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK HOWEVER. CLEARING
SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND SNOW SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECT THIS
IMPROVEMENT TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
AROUND 2 INCHES. SNOW WILL LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS DUE NORTHWEST 850 MB FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS
COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. THESE SAME WINDS COUPLED
WITH WARM LAKE WATERS AND BLOCKED FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP A
FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE VERMONT
SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPES THIS MORNING
BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES.

WITH DEPARTURE OF TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST FROM GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS COMING TO AN END.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EST FRIDAY..RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH RECENT SNOWS...THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY MORNING
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE.
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE MERCURY DIP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
15F...AND WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SUBZERO READINGS EAST
OF THE GREENS.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
FLOW ALOFT. PROBLEM BECOMES PRECIPITATION TYPE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
06Z SUNDAY WHEN MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING IN MID
LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WARM ENOUGH IN
LOW LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS IN SAINT
LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY STILL ON THE
CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON BRISK
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...DESPITE
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EST FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC INTO
NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON FROPA TIMING INDICATING FRONT WILL BE THROUGH
THE BTV CWA BY 18Z MONDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AT THE TAIL
END OF THE PRECIP MID-DAY MONDAY. WITH THE EARLY FROPA...EXPECT
HIGHS TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM
THE 40S MORNING TO 30S AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND ONLY RISING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AS WELL BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE SURFACE TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW TURN SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TO OUR WEST. REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
PUSHES NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL ASCENT BEING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH SO
THINK A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKELY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD
THURSDAY CENTERING OVER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...IFR VSBY SNOW CONTINUES AT KBTV AND KMPV
FOR ABOUT AN HOUR LONGER WITH MVFR CIGS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT KMSS AND
KPBG. AFTER 13Z...VSBY TREND TO VFR AND MVFR CIGS TREND TO VFR BY
MID-DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. PROBABLY SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. CLEARER SKIES WILL BE NOTED ON ACROSS THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND ALSO IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS EVENING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN MID CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...SCT-BKN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN MVFR/IFR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 281442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
942 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL THEN DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 935 AM EST FRIDAY...HAVE UPDATED FCST TO ADJUST POPS
SLIGHTLY...AND CAPTURE CRNT TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30% OR
SO FOR THE DACKS/NORTHERN SLV FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
CONTINUED WITH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT ZNS...INCLUDING THE
NEK THRU 16Z TODAY. DEEPER RH PROGS ARE QUICKLY LIFTING NE OF OUR
CWA THIS MORNING...WHILE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LLVL CAA IS
DEVELOPING BEHIND S/W ENERGY. HAVE NOTED A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRNT/BOUNDARY ENTERING THE SLV ATTM...AND HELPING PRODUCE A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER WITH VIS AT 3SM AT KMSS. THIS WL QUICKLY MOVE ACRS OUR
CWA THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE NORTHERN CPV. BLOCKED FLW CONTS
THRU 18Z WITH FROUNDE #`S AROUND 0.50...RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW
ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED IN THE CPV AND WESTERN SLOPES. AREAL
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WL DECREASE THIS AFTN WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO OUR FA. EXPECT COLD SUMMIT TEMPS TODAY WITH WHITEFACE HAVING
A CRNT TEMP OF 7F...AND ONLY WARMING TO NEAR 10F BY THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S MTNS
VALLEYS TO NEAR 30F CPV/CT RIVER VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME...AS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK HOWEVER. CLEARING
SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND SNOW SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECT THIS
IMPROVEMENT TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
AROUND 2 INCHES. SNOW WILL LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS DUE NORTHWEST 850 MB FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS
COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. THESE SAME WINDS COUPLED
WITH WARM LAKE WATERS AND BLOCKED FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP A
FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE VERMONT
SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPES THIS MORNING
BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES.

WITH DEPARTURE OF TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST FROM GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS COMING TO AN END.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EST FRIDAY..RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH RECENT SNOWS...THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY MORNING
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE.
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE MERCURY DIP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
15F...AND WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SUBZERO READINGS EAST
OF THE GREENS.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
FLOW ALOFT. PROBLEM BECOMES PRECIPITATION TYPE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
06Z SUNDAY WHEN MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING IN MID
LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WARM ENOUGH IN
LOW LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS IN SAINT
LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY STILL ON THE
CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON BRISK
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...DESPITE
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EST FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC INTO
NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON FROPA TIMING INDICATING FRONT WILL BE THROUGH
THE BTV CWA BY 18Z MONDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AT THE TAIL
END OF THE PRECIP MID-DAY MONDAY. WITH THE EARLY FROPA...EXPECT
HIGHS TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM
THE 40S MORNING TO 30S AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND ONLY RISING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AS WELL BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE SURFACE TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW TURN SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TO OUR WEST. REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
PUSHES NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL ASCENT BEING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH SO
THINK A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKELY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD
THURSDAY CENTERING OVER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...IFR VSBY SNOW CONTINUES AT KBTV AND KMPV
FOR ABOUT AN HOUR LONGER WITH MVFR CIGS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT KMSS AND
KPBG. AFTER 13Z...VSBY TREND TO VFR AND MVFR CIGS TREND TO VFR BY
MID-DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. PROBABLY SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. CLEARER SKIES WILL BE NOTED ON ACROSS THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND ALSO IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS EVENING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN MID CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...SCT-BKN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN MVFR/IFR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 281442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
942 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL THEN DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 935 AM EST FRIDAY...HAVE UPDATED FCST TO ADJUST POPS
SLIGHTLY...AND CAPTURE CRNT TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30% OR
SO FOR THE DACKS/NORTHERN SLV FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
CONTINUED WITH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT ZNS...INCLUDING THE
NEK THRU 16Z TODAY. DEEPER RH PROGS ARE QUICKLY LIFTING NE OF OUR
CWA THIS MORNING...WHILE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LLVL CAA IS
DEVELOPING BEHIND S/W ENERGY. HAVE NOTED A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRNT/BOUNDARY ENTERING THE SLV ATTM...AND HELPING PRODUCE A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER WITH VIS AT 3SM AT KMSS. THIS WL QUICKLY MOVE ACRS OUR
CWA THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE NORTHERN CPV. BLOCKED FLW CONTS
THRU 18Z WITH FROUNDE #`S AROUND 0.50...RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW
ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED IN THE CPV AND WESTERN SLOPES. AREAL
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WL DECREASE THIS AFTN WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO OUR FA. EXPECT COLD SUMMIT TEMPS TODAY WITH WHITEFACE HAVING
A CRNT TEMP OF 7F...AND ONLY WARMING TO NEAR 10F BY THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S MTNS
VALLEYS TO NEAR 30F CPV/CT RIVER VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME...AS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK HOWEVER. CLEARING
SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND SNOW SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECT THIS
IMPROVEMENT TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
AROUND 2 INCHES. SNOW WILL LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS DUE NORTHWEST 850 MB FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS
COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. THESE SAME WINDS COUPLED
WITH WARM LAKE WATERS AND BLOCKED FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP A
FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE VERMONT
SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPES THIS MORNING
BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES.

WITH DEPARTURE OF TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST FROM GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS COMING TO AN END.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EST FRIDAY..RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH RECENT SNOWS...THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY MORNING
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE.
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE MERCURY DIP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
15F...AND WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SUBZERO READINGS EAST
OF THE GREENS.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
FLOW ALOFT. PROBLEM BECOMES PRECIPITATION TYPE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
06Z SUNDAY WHEN MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING IN MID
LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WARM ENOUGH IN
LOW LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS IN SAINT
LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY STILL ON THE
CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON BRISK
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...DESPITE
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EST FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC INTO
NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON FROPA TIMING INDICATING FRONT WILL BE THROUGH
THE BTV CWA BY 18Z MONDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AT THE TAIL
END OF THE PRECIP MID-DAY MONDAY. WITH THE EARLY FROPA...EXPECT
HIGHS TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM
THE 40S MORNING TO 30S AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND ONLY RISING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AS WELL BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE SURFACE TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW TURN SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TO OUR WEST. REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
PUSHES NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL ASCENT BEING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH SO
THINK A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKELY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD
THURSDAY CENTERING OVER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...IFR VSBY SNOW CONTINUES AT KBTV AND KMPV
FOR ABOUT AN HOUR LONGER WITH MVFR CIGS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT KMSS AND
KPBG. AFTER 13Z...VSBY TREND TO VFR AND MVFR CIGS TREND TO VFR BY
MID-DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. PROBABLY SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. CLEARER SKIES WILL BE NOTED ON ACROSS THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND ALSO IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS EVENING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN MID CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...SCT-BKN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN MVFR/IFR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 281442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
942 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL THEN DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 935 AM EST FRIDAY...HAVE UPDATED FCST TO ADJUST POPS
SLIGHTLY...AND CAPTURE CRNT TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30% OR
SO FOR THE DACKS/NORTHERN SLV FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
CONTINUED WITH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT ZNS...INCLUDING THE
NEK THRU 16Z TODAY. DEEPER RH PROGS ARE QUICKLY LIFTING NE OF OUR
CWA THIS MORNING...WHILE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LLVL CAA IS
DEVELOPING BEHIND S/W ENERGY. HAVE NOTED A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRNT/BOUNDARY ENTERING THE SLV ATTM...AND HELPING PRODUCE A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER WITH VIS AT 3SM AT KMSS. THIS WL QUICKLY MOVE ACRS OUR
CWA THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE NORTHERN CPV. BLOCKED FLW CONTS
THRU 18Z WITH FROUNDE #`S AROUND 0.50...RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW
ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED IN THE CPV AND WESTERN SLOPES. AREAL
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WL DECREASE THIS AFTN WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO OUR FA. EXPECT COLD SUMMIT TEMPS TODAY WITH WHITEFACE HAVING
A CRNT TEMP OF 7F...AND ONLY WARMING TO NEAR 10F BY THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S MTNS
VALLEYS TO NEAR 30F CPV/CT RIVER VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME...AS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK HOWEVER. CLEARING
SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND SNOW SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECT THIS
IMPROVEMENT TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO
AROUND 2 INCHES. SNOW WILL LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS DUE NORTHWEST 850 MB FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS
COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. THESE SAME WINDS COUPLED
WITH WARM LAKE WATERS AND BLOCKED FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP A
FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE VERMONT
SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPES THIS MORNING
BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES.

WITH DEPARTURE OF TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST FROM GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS COMING TO AN END.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EST FRIDAY..RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH RECENT SNOWS...THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY MORNING
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE.
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE MERCURY DIP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
15F...AND WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SUBZERO READINGS EAST
OF THE GREENS.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
FLOW ALOFT. PROBLEM BECOMES PRECIPITATION TYPE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
06Z SUNDAY WHEN MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING IN MID
LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WARM ENOUGH IN
LOW LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS IN SAINT
LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY STILL ON THE
CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON BRISK
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...DESPITE
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EST FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC INTO
NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON FROPA TIMING INDICATING FRONT WILL BE THROUGH
THE BTV CWA BY 18Z MONDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AT THE TAIL
END OF THE PRECIP MID-DAY MONDAY. WITH THE EARLY FROPA...EXPECT
HIGHS TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM
THE 40S MORNING TO 30S AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND ONLY RISING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AS WELL BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE SURFACE TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW TURN SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TO OUR WEST. REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
PUSHES NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL ASCENT BEING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH SO
THINK A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKELY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD
THURSDAY CENTERING OVER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...IFR VSBY SNOW CONTINUES AT KBTV AND KMPV
FOR ABOUT AN HOUR LONGER WITH MVFR CIGS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT KMSS AND
KPBG. AFTER 13Z...VSBY TREND TO VFR AND MVFR CIGS TREND TO VFR BY
MID-DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. PROBABLY SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. CLEARER SKIES WILL BE NOTED ON ACROSS THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND ALSO IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS EVENING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN MID CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...SCT-BKN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN MVFR/IFR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 281439
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
940 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO BETTER
FIT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH THE LAKE
BAND. HAVE ALSO REDUCED THE AMLOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE HOURLY SKY
GRIDS IN ORDER TO REFLECT THE MANY BREAKS IN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
SHOWN IN THE STLT PICS.

PREV DISC...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL AND LOCAL RADAR REVEAL VERY LIGHT
RETURNS OF THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FORWARD
MOVEMENT...THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AOA 12Z. THIS SHOULD ELIMINATE THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER AND MEAN FLOW BECOME WESTERLY ALONG
WITH COLD ADVECTION /H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD -15C/...LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK THROUGH THE DAY. PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...FAVORABLE INVERSION
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW LAKE BANDS TO TRACK
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THAT RIDGE THOUGH WILL LIMIT THE INLAND
EXTENT SOMEWHAT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE THE POPS MAINLY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN DACKS. AS
FOR THOSE CRUCIAL LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES...THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 280-310 PER THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR.

DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF
REGION...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT INLAND EXTENT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...A WARM FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TOO WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. SO WHERE
CLOUDS DO BREAK UP...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS BEFORE STEADYING OFF WITH THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT AND LIKELY HIGHER LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL
QPFS ARE RATHER LIGHT BUT DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPENDING
ON THERMAL PROFILES. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE BEST LIFT AND
LOW CPD/S WILL BE ACROSS THE DACKS REGION INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SO WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH
A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE WARMING THERMAL COLUMN...WE WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THEN INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ON SUNDAY. WE WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY ATTAINED IN THE
EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THIS FRONT WON/T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...BUT WILL ALLOW SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE UNCLEAR IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY.
IF IT WAITS UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY TO PASS THROUGH...TEMPS MAY WIND
UP BEING MILD FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS/.

BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ANY
PRECIP AND ALLOWS CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. WITH A COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK LIKE
THEY MAY WIND UP DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20 FOR MON
NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIP MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...PRECIP LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE TRANSITION...BUT
WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE GRIDS QUITE YET...AS THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS.  ANY PRECIP LOOKS
FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PREVENTING MUCH QPF IN GENERAL.
ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MINS TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. MINS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S.

ANOTHER BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY WILL QUIET AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLE...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS. ANY DRY
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF...AS YET ANOTHER STORM WITH LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE APPROACHING FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF SITES
WITH JUST SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO LOW CLOUDS THAT REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THERE.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AS LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FROM DEVELOPING...AND ANY LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. STILL...CIGS WILL BE BKN
AROUND 3500-5000 FT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
DURING DAYTIME MIXING...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF. WITH A
WARM FRONT STARTING TO APPROACH...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
THROUGH TODAY...A LITTLE HIGHER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY WEDNESDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THIS MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY









000
FXUS61 KALY 281439
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
940 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO BETTER
FIT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH THE LAKE
BAND. HAVE ALSO REDUCED THE AMLOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE HOURLY SKY
GRIDS IN ORDER TO REFLECT THE MANY BREAKS IN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
SHOWN IN THE STLT PICS.

PREV DISC...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL AND LOCAL RADAR REVEAL VERY LIGHT
RETURNS OF THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FORWARD
MOVEMENT...THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AOA 12Z. THIS SHOULD ELIMINATE THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER AND MEAN FLOW BECOME WESTERLY ALONG
WITH COLD ADVECTION /H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD -15C/...LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK THROUGH THE DAY. PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...FAVORABLE INVERSION
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW LAKE BANDS TO TRACK
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THAT RIDGE THOUGH WILL LIMIT THE INLAND
EXTENT SOMEWHAT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE THE POPS MAINLY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN DACKS. AS
FOR THOSE CRUCIAL LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES...THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 280-310 PER THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR.

DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF
REGION...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT INLAND EXTENT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...A WARM FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TOO WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. SO WHERE
CLOUDS DO BREAK UP...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS BEFORE STEADYING OFF WITH THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT AND LIKELY HIGHER LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL
QPFS ARE RATHER LIGHT BUT DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPENDING
ON THERMAL PROFILES. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE BEST LIFT AND
LOW CPD/S WILL BE ACROSS THE DACKS REGION INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SO WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH
A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE WARMING THERMAL COLUMN...WE WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THEN INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ON SUNDAY. WE WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY ATTAINED IN THE
EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THIS FRONT WON/T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...BUT WILL ALLOW SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE UNCLEAR IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY.
IF IT WAITS UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY TO PASS THROUGH...TEMPS MAY WIND
UP BEING MILD FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS/.

BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ANY
PRECIP AND ALLOWS CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. WITH A COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK LIKE
THEY MAY WIND UP DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20 FOR MON
NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIP MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...PRECIP LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE TRANSITION...BUT
WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE GRIDS QUITE YET...AS THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS.  ANY PRECIP LOOKS
FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PREVENTING MUCH QPF IN GENERAL.
ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MINS TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. MINS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S.

ANOTHER BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY WILL QUIET AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLE...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS. ANY DRY
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF...AS YET ANOTHER STORM WITH LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE APPROACHING FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF SITES
WITH JUST SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO LOW CLOUDS THAT REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THERE.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AS LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FROM DEVELOPING...AND ANY LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. STILL...CIGS WILL BE BKN
AROUND 3500-5000 FT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
DURING DAYTIME MIXING...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF. WITH A
WARM FRONT STARTING TO APPROACH...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
THROUGH TODAY...A LITTLE HIGHER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY WEDNESDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THIS MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY









000
FXUS61 KALY 281439
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
940 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO BETTER
FIT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH THE LAKE
BAND. HAVE ALSO REDUCED THE AMLOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE HOURLY SKY
GRIDS IN ORDER TO REFLECT THE MANY BREAKS IN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
SHOWN IN THE STLT PICS.

PREV DISC...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL AND LOCAL RADAR REVEAL VERY LIGHT
RETURNS OF THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FORWARD
MOVEMENT...THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AOA 12Z. THIS SHOULD ELIMINATE THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER AND MEAN FLOW BECOME WESTERLY ALONG
WITH COLD ADVECTION /H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD -15C/...LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK THROUGH THE DAY. PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...FAVORABLE INVERSION
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW LAKE BANDS TO TRACK
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THAT RIDGE THOUGH WILL LIMIT THE INLAND
EXTENT SOMEWHAT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE THE POPS MAINLY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN DACKS. AS
FOR THOSE CRUCIAL LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES...THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 280-310 PER THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR.

DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF
REGION...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT INLAND EXTENT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...A WARM FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TOO WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. SO WHERE
CLOUDS DO BREAK UP...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS BEFORE STEADYING OFF WITH THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT AND LIKELY HIGHER LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL
QPFS ARE RATHER LIGHT BUT DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPENDING
ON THERMAL PROFILES. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE BEST LIFT AND
LOW CPD/S WILL BE ACROSS THE DACKS REGION INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SO WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH
A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE WARMING THERMAL COLUMN...WE WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THEN INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ON SUNDAY. WE WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY ATTAINED IN THE
EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THIS FRONT WON/T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...BUT WILL ALLOW SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE UNCLEAR IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY.
IF IT WAITS UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY TO PASS THROUGH...TEMPS MAY WIND
UP BEING MILD FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS/.

BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ANY
PRECIP AND ALLOWS CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. WITH A COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK LIKE
THEY MAY WIND UP DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20 FOR MON
NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIP MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...PRECIP LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE TRANSITION...BUT
WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE GRIDS QUITE YET...AS THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS.  ANY PRECIP LOOKS
FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PREVENTING MUCH QPF IN GENERAL.
ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MINS TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. MINS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S.

ANOTHER BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY WILL QUIET AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLE...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS. ANY DRY
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF...AS YET ANOTHER STORM WITH LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE APPROACHING FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF SITES
WITH JUST SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO LOW CLOUDS THAT REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THERE.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AS LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FROM DEVELOPING...AND ANY LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. STILL...CIGS WILL BE BKN
AROUND 3500-5000 FT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
DURING DAYTIME MIXING...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF. WITH A
WARM FRONT STARTING TO APPROACH...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
THROUGH TODAY...A LITTLE HIGHER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY WEDNESDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THIS MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY









000
FXUS61 KALY 281439
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
940 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO BETTER
FIT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH THE LAKE
BAND. HAVE ALSO REDUCED THE AMLOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE HOURLY SKY
GRIDS IN ORDER TO REFLECT THE MANY BREAKS IN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
SHOWN IN THE STLT PICS.

PREV DISC...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL AND LOCAL RADAR REVEAL VERY LIGHT
RETURNS OF THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FORWARD
MOVEMENT...THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AOA 12Z. THIS SHOULD ELIMINATE THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER AND MEAN FLOW BECOME WESTERLY ALONG
WITH COLD ADVECTION /H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD -15C/...LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK THROUGH THE DAY. PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...FAVORABLE INVERSION
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW LAKE BANDS TO TRACK
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THAT RIDGE THOUGH WILL LIMIT THE INLAND
EXTENT SOMEWHAT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE THE POPS MAINLY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN DACKS. AS
FOR THOSE CRUCIAL LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES...THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 280-310 PER THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR.

DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF
REGION...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT INLAND EXTENT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...A WARM FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TOO WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. SO WHERE
CLOUDS DO BREAK UP...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS BEFORE STEADYING OFF WITH THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT AND LIKELY HIGHER LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL
QPFS ARE RATHER LIGHT BUT DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPENDING
ON THERMAL PROFILES. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE BEST LIFT AND
LOW CPD/S WILL BE ACROSS THE DACKS REGION INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SO WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH
A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE WARMING THERMAL COLUMN...WE WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THEN INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ON SUNDAY. WE WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY ATTAINED IN THE
EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THIS FRONT WON/T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...BUT WILL ALLOW SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE UNCLEAR IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY.
IF IT WAITS UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY TO PASS THROUGH...TEMPS MAY WIND
UP BEING MILD FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS/.

BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ANY
PRECIP AND ALLOWS CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. WITH A COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK LIKE
THEY MAY WIND UP DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20 FOR MON
NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIP MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...PRECIP LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE TRANSITION...BUT
WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE GRIDS QUITE YET...AS THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS.  ANY PRECIP LOOKS
FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PREVENTING MUCH QPF IN GENERAL.
ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MINS TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. MINS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S.

ANOTHER BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY WILL QUIET AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLE...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS. ANY DRY
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF...AS YET ANOTHER STORM WITH LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE APPROACHING FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF SITES
WITH JUST SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO LOW CLOUDS THAT REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THERE.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AS LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FROM DEVELOPING...AND ANY LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. STILL...CIGS WILL BE BKN
AROUND 3500-5000 FT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
DURING DAYTIME MIXING...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF. WITH A
WARM FRONT STARTING TO APPROACH...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
THROUGH TODAY...A LITTLE HIGHER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY WEDNESDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THIS MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY









000
FXUS61 KBTV 281150
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL THEN DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 635 AM EST FRIDAY...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
VERMONT AT THIS TIME...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK HOWEVER. CLEARING SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK. EXPECT THIS IMPROVEMENT TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. SNOW WILL LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS DUE NORTHWEST 850 MB
FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.
THESE SAME WINDS COUPLED WITH WARM LAKE WATERS AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN SNOW SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN
SLOPES THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES.

WITH DEPARTURE OF TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST FROM GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS COMING TO AN END.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EST FRIDAY..RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH RECENT SNOWS...THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY MORNING
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE.
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE MERCURY DIP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
15F...AND WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SUBZERO READINGS EAST
OF THE GREENS.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
FLOW ALOFT. PROBLEM BECOMES PRECIPITATION TYPE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
06Z SUNDAY WHEN MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING IN MID
LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WARM ENOUGH IN
LOW LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS IN SAINT
LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY STILL ON THE
CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON BRISK
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...DESPITE
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EST FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC INTO
NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON FROPA TIMING INDICATING FRONT WILL BE THROUGH
THE BTV CWA BY 18Z MONDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AT THE TAIL
END OF THE PRECIP MID-DAY MONDAY. WITH THE EARLY FROPA...EXPECT
HIGHS TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM
THE 40S MORNING TO 30S AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND ONLY RISING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AS WELL BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE SURFACE TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW TURN SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TO OUR WEST. REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
PUSHES NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL ASCENT BEING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH SO
THINK A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKELY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD
THURSDAY CENTERING OVER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...IFR VSBY SNOW CONTINUES AT KBTV AND KMPV
FOR ABOUT AN HOUR LONGER WITH MVFR CIGS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT KMSS AND
KPBG. AFTER 13Z...VSBY TREND TO VFR AND MVFR CIGS TREND TO VFR BY
MID-DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. PROBABLY SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. CLEARER SKIES WILL BE NOTED ON ACROSS THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND ALSO IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS EVENING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN MID CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...SCT-BKN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN MVFR/IFR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281150
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL THEN DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 635 AM EST FRIDAY...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
VERMONT AT THIS TIME...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK HOWEVER. CLEARING SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK. EXPECT THIS IMPROVEMENT TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. SNOW WILL LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS DUE NORTHWEST 850 MB
FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.
THESE SAME WINDS COUPLED WITH WARM LAKE WATERS AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN SNOW SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN
SLOPES THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES.

WITH DEPARTURE OF TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST FROM GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS COMING TO AN END.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EST FRIDAY..RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH RECENT SNOWS...THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY MORNING
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE.
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE MERCURY DIP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
15F...AND WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SUBZERO READINGS EAST
OF THE GREENS.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
FLOW ALOFT. PROBLEM BECOMES PRECIPITATION TYPE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
06Z SUNDAY WHEN MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING IN MID
LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WARM ENOUGH IN
LOW LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS IN SAINT
LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY STILL ON THE
CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON BRISK
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...DESPITE
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EST FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC INTO
NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON FROPA TIMING INDICATING FRONT WILL BE THROUGH
THE BTV CWA BY 18Z MONDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AT THE TAIL
END OF THE PRECIP MID-DAY MONDAY. WITH THE EARLY FROPA...EXPECT
HIGHS TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM
THE 40S MORNING TO 30S AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND ONLY RISING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AS WELL BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE SURFACE TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW TURN SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TO OUR WEST. REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
PUSHES NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL ASCENT BEING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH SO
THINK A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKELY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD
THURSDAY CENTERING OVER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...IFR VSBY SNOW CONTINUES AT KBTV AND KMPV
FOR ABOUT AN HOUR LONGER WITH MVFR CIGS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT KMSS AND
KPBG. AFTER 13Z...VSBY TREND TO VFR AND MVFR CIGS TREND TO VFR BY
MID-DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. PROBABLY SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. CLEARER SKIES WILL BE NOTED ON ACROSS THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND ALSO IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS EVENING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN MID CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...SCT-BKN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN MVFR/IFR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 281140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
640 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL THEN DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 635 AM EST FRIDAY...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
VERMONT AT THIS TIME...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK HOWEVER. CLEARING SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK. EXPECT THIS IMPROVEMENT TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. SNOW WILL LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS DUE NORTHWEST 850 MB
FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.
THESE SAME WINDS COUPLED WITH WARM LAKE WATERS AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN SNOW SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN
SLOPES THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES.

WITH DEPARTURE OF TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST FROM GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS COMING TO AN END.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EST FRIDAY..RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH RECENT SNOWS...THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY MORNING
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE.
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE MERCURY DIP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
15F...AND WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SUBZERO READINGS EAST
OF THE GREENS.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
FLOW ALOFT. PROBLEM BECOMES PRECIPITATION TYPE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
06Z SUNDAY WHEN MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING IN MID
LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WARM ENOUGH IN
LOW LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS IN SAINT
LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY STILL ON THE
CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON BRISK
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...DESPITE
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EST FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC INTO
NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON FROPA TIMING INDICATING FRONT WILL BE THROUGH
THE BTV CWA BY 18Z MONDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AT THE TAIL
END OF THE PRECIP MID-DAY MONDAY. WITH THE EARLY FROPA...EXPECT
HIGHS TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM
THE 40S MORNING TO 30S AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND ONLY RISING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AS WELL BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE SURFACE TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW TURN SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TO OUR WEST. REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
PUSHES NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL ASCENT BEING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH SO
THINK A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKELY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD
THURSDAY CENTERING OVER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION HAS PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH CIGS
VARYING FROM MVFR TO VFR AND VSBY FROM MVFR TO IFR. CURRENT RADAR
SHOWS SNOWS LIFTING OUT OF KMSS/KRUT AND WILL BE EAST OF KSLK
WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SLIGHT DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AT KPBG WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THERE...BUT FOR KBTV AND KMPV IFR VSBY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS VFR
BY 12-13Z. AFTER 13Z...VSBY IS VFR AND ANY MVFR CIGS TREND TO VFR
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...SCT-BKN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN MVFR/IFR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 281140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
640 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL THEN DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 635 AM EST FRIDAY...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
VERMONT AT THIS TIME...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK HOWEVER. CLEARING SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK. EXPECT THIS IMPROVEMENT TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. SNOW WILL LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS DUE NORTHWEST 850 MB
FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.
THESE SAME WINDS COUPLED WITH WARM LAKE WATERS AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN SNOW SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN
SLOPES THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES.

WITH DEPARTURE OF TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST FROM GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS COMING TO AN END.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EST FRIDAY..RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH RECENT SNOWS...THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY MORNING
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE.
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE MERCURY DIP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
15F...AND WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SUBZERO READINGS EAST
OF THE GREENS.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
FLOW ALOFT. PROBLEM BECOMES PRECIPITATION TYPE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
06Z SUNDAY WHEN MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING IN MID
LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WARM ENOUGH IN
LOW LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS IN SAINT
LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY STILL ON THE
CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON BRISK
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...DESPITE
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EST FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC INTO
NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON FROPA TIMING INDICATING FRONT WILL BE THROUGH
THE BTV CWA BY 18Z MONDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AT THE TAIL
END OF THE PRECIP MID-DAY MONDAY. WITH THE EARLY FROPA...EXPECT
HIGHS TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM
THE 40S MORNING TO 30S AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND ONLY RISING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AS WELL BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE SURFACE TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW TURN SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TO OUR WEST. REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
PUSHES NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL ASCENT BEING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH SO
THINK A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKELY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD
THURSDAY CENTERING OVER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION HAS PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH CIGS
VARYING FROM MVFR TO VFR AND VSBY FROM MVFR TO IFR. CURRENT RADAR
SHOWS SNOWS LIFTING OUT OF KMSS/KRUT AND WILL BE EAST OF KSLK
WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SLIGHT DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AT KPBG WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THERE...BUT FOR KBTV AND KMPV IFR VSBY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS VFR
BY 12-13Z. AFTER 13Z...VSBY IS VFR AND ANY MVFR CIGS TREND TO VFR
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...SCT-BKN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN MVFR/IFR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 281131
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WERE DIMINISHING AS THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS JUST ABOUT OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY WAS EVOLVING DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO EXTENDING
ALONG THE I81 CORRIDOR. PER THE HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRRX
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD 15Z
INTO PORTIONS OF HERKIMER COUNTY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...WHILE
SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING /MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY/...MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. UPDATE TO HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY FORECAST AND TWEAKS TO THE POP/WX BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS.

PREV DISC...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL AND LOCAL RADAR REVEAL VERY LIGHT
RETURNS OF THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FORWARD
MOVEMENT...THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AOA 12Z. THIS SHOULD ELIMINATE THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER AND MEAN FLOW BECOME WESTERLY ALONG
WITH COLD ADVECTION /H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD -15C/...LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK THROUGH THE DAY. PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...FAVORABLE INVERSION
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW LAKE BANDS TO TRACK
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THAT RIDGE THOUGH WILL LIMIT THE INLAND
EXTENT SOMEWHAT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE THE POPS MAINLY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN DACKS. AS
FOR THOSE CRUCIAL LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES...THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 280-310 PER THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR.

DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF
REGION...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT INLAND EXTENT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...A WARM FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TOO WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. SO WHERE
CLOUDS DO BREAK UP...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS BEFORE STEADYING OFF WITH THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT AND LIKELY HIGHER LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL
QPFS ARE RATHER LIGHT BUT DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPENDING
ON THERMAL PROFILES. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE BEST LIFT AND
LOW CPD/S WILL BE ACROSS THE DACKS REGION INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SO WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH
A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE WARMING THERMAL COLUMN...WE WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THEN INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ON SUNDAY. WE WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY ATTAINED IN THE
EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THIS FRONT WON/T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...BUT WILL ALLOW SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE UNCLEAR IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY.
IF IT WAITS UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY TO PASS THROUGH...TEMPS MAY WIND
UP BEING MILD FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS/.

BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ANY
PRECIP AND ALLOWS CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. WITH A COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK LIKE
THEY MAY WIND UP DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20 FOR MON
NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIP MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...PRECIP LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE TRANSITION...BUT
WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE GRIDS QUITE YET...AS THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS.  ANY PRECIP LOOKS
FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PREVENTING MUCH QPF IN GENERAL.
ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MINS TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. MINS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S.

ANOTHER BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY WILL QUIET AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLE...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS. ANY DRY
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF...AS YET ANOTHER STORM WITH LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE APPROACHING FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF SITES
WITH JUST SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO LOW CLOUDS THAT REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THERE.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AS LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FROM DEVELOPING...AND ANY LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. STILL...CIGS WILL BE BKN
AROUND 3500-5000 FT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
DURING DAYTIME MIXING...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF. WITH A
WARM FRONT STARTING TO APPROACH...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
THROUGH TODAY...A LITTLE HIGHER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY WEDNESDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THIS MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 281131
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WERE DIMINISHING AS THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS JUST ABOUT OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY WAS EVOLVING DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO EXTENDING
ALONG THE I81 CORRIDOR. PER THE HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRRX
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD 15Z
INTO PORTIONS OF HERKIMER COUNTY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...WHILE
SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING /MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY/...MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. UPDATE TO HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY FORECAST AND TWEAKS TO THE POP/WX BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS.

PREV DISC...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL AND LOCAL RADAR REVEAL VERY LIGHT
RETURNS OF THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FORWARD
MOVEMENT...THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AOA 12Z. THIS SHOULD ELIMINATE THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER AND MEAN FLOW BECOME WESTERLY ALONG
WITH COLD ADVECTION /H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD -15C/...LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK THROUGH THE DAY. PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...FAVORABLE INVERSION
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW LAKE BANDS TO TRACK
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THAT RIDGE THOUGH WILL LIMIT THE INLAND
EXTENT SOMEWHAT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE THE POPS MAINLY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN DACKS. AS
FOR THOSE CRUCIAL LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES...THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 280-310 PER THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR.

DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF
REGION...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT INLAND EXTENT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...A WARM FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TOO WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. SO WHERE
CLOUDS DO BREAK UP...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS BEFORE STEADYING OFF WITH THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT AND LIKELY HIGHER LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL
QPFS ARE RATHER LIGHT BUT DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPENDING
ON THERMAL PROFILES. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE BEST LIFT AND
LOW CPD/S WILL BE ACROSS THE DACKS REGION INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SO WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH
A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE WARMING THERMAL COLUMN...WE WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THEN INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ON SUNDAY. WE WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY ATTAINED IN THE
EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THIS FRONT WON/T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...BUT WILL ALLOW SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE UNCLEAR IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY.
IF IT WAITS UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY TO PASS THROUGH...TEMPS MAY WIND
UP BEING MILD FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS/.

BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ANY
PRECIP AND ALLOWS CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. WITH A COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK LIKE
THEY MAY WIND UP DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20 FOR MON
NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIP MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...PRECIP LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE TRANSITION...BUT
WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE GRIDS QUITE YET...AS THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS.  ANY PRECIP LOOKS
FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PREVENTING MUCH QPF IN GENERAL.
ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MINS TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. MINS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S.

ANOTHER BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY WILL QUIET AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLE...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS. ANY DRY
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF...AS YET ANOTHER STORM WITH LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE APPROACHING FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF SITES
WITH JUST SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO LOW CLOUDS THAT REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THERE.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AS LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FROM DEVELOPING...AND ANY LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. STILL...CIGS WILL BE BKN
AROUND 3500-5000 FT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
DURING DAYTIME MIXING...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF. WITH A
WARM FRONT STARTING TO APPROACH...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
THROUGH TODAY...A LITTLE HIGHER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY WEDNESDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THIS MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 281131
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WERE DIMINISHING AS THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS JUST ABOUT OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY WAS EVOLVING DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO EXTENDING
ALONG THE I81 CORRIDOR. PER THE HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRRX
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD 15Z
INTO PORTIONS OF HERKIMER COUNTY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...WHILE
SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING /MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY/...MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. UPDATE TO HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY FORECAST AND TWEAKS TO THE POP/WX BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS.

PREV DISC...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL AND LOCAL RADAR REVEAL VERY LIGHT
RETURNS OF THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FORWARD
MOVEMENT...THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AOA 12Z. THIS SHOULD ELIMINATE THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER AND MEAN FLOW BECOME WESTERLY ALONG
WITH COLD ADVECTION /H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD -15C/...LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK THROUGH THE DAY. PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...FAVORABLE INVERSION
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW LAKE BANDS TO TRACK
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THAT RIDGE THOUGH WILL LIMIT THE INLAND
EXTENT SOMEWHAT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE THE POPS MAINLY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN DACKS. AS
FOR THOSE CRUCIAL LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES...THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 280-310 PER THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR.

DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF
REGION...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT INLAND EXTENT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...A WARM FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TOO WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. SO WHERE
CLOUDS DO BREAK UP...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS BEFORE STEADYING OFF WITH THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT AND LIKELY HIGHER LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL
QPFS ARE RATHER LIGHT BUT DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPENDING
ON THERMAL PROFILES. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE BEST LIFT AND
LOW CPD/S WILL BE ACROSS THE DACKS REGION INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SO WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH
A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE WARMING THERMAL COLUMN...WE WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THEN INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ON SUNDAY. WE WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY ATTAINED IN THE
EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THIS FRONT WON/T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...BUT WILL ALLOW SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE UNCLEAR IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY.
IF IT WAITS UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY TO PASS THROUGH...TEMPS MAY WIND
UP BEING MILD FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS/.

BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ANY
PRECIP AND ALLOWS CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. WITH A COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK LIKE
THEY MAY WIND UP DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20 FOR MON
NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIP MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...PRECIP LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE TRANSITION...BUT
WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE GRIDS QUITE YET...AS THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS.  ANY PRECIP LOOKS
FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PREVENTING MUCH QPF IN GENERAL.
ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MINS TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. MINS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S.

ANOTHER BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY WILL QUIET AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLE...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS. ANY DRY
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF...AS YET ANOTHER STORM WITH LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE APPROACHING FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF SITES
WITH JUST SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO LOW CLOUDS THAT REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THERE.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AS LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FROM DEVELOPING...AND ANY LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. STILL...CIGS WILL BE BKN
AROUND 3500-5000 FT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
DURING DAYTIME MIXING...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF. WITH A
WARM FRONT STARTING TO APPROACH...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
THROUGH TODAY...A LITTLE HIGHER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY WEDNESDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THIS MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 281131
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WERE DIMINISHING AS THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS JUST ABOUT OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY WAS EVOLVING DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO EXTENDING
ALONG THE I81 CORRIDOR. PER THE HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRRX
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD 15Z
INTO PORTIONS OF HERKIMER COUNTY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...WHILE
SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING /MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY/...MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. UPDATE TO HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY FORECAST AND TWEAKS TO THE POP/WX BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS.

PREV DISC...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL AND LOCAL RADAR REVEAL VERY LIGHT
RETURNS OF THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FORWARD
MOVEMENT...THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AOA 12Z. THIS SHOULD ELIMINATE THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER AND MEAN FLOW BECOME WESTERLY ALONG
WITH COLD ADVECTION /H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD -15C/...LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK THROUGH THE DAY. PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...FAVORABLE INVERSION
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW LAKE BANDS TO TRACK
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THAT RIDGE THOUGH WILL LIMIT THE INLAND
EXTENT SOMEWHAT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE THE POPS MAINLY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN DACKS. AS
FOR THOSE CRUCIAL LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES...THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 280-310 PER THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR.

DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF
REGION...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT INLAND EXTENT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...A WARM FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TOO WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. SO WHERE
CLOUDS DO BREAK UP...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS BEFORE STEADYING OFF WITH THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT AND LIKELY HIGHER LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL
QPFS ARE RATHER LIGHT BUT DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPENDING
ON THERMAL PROFILES. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE BEST LIFT AND
LOW CPD/S WILL BE ACROSS THE DACKS REGION INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SO WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH
A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE WARMING THERMAL COLUMN...WE WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THEN INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ON SUNDAY. WE WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY ATTAINED IN THE
EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THIS FRONT WON/T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...BUT WILL ALLOW SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE UNCLEAR IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY.
IF IT WAITS UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY TO PASS THROUGH...TEMPS MAY WIND
UP BEING MILD FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS/.

BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ANY
PRECIP AND ALLOWS CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. WITH A COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK LIKE
THEY MAY WIND UP DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20 FOR MON
NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIP MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...PRECIP LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE TRANSITION...BUT
WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE GRIDS QUITE YET...AS THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS.  ANY PRECIP LOOKS
FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PREVENTING MUCH QPF IN GENERAL.
ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MINS TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. MINS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S.

ANOTHER BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY WILL QUIET AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLE...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS. ANY DRY
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF...AS YET ANOTHER STORM WITH LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE APPROACHING FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF SITES
WITH JUST SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO LOW CLOUDS THAT REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THERE.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AS LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FROM DEVELOPING...AND ANY LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. STILL...CIGS WILL BE BKN
AROUND 3500-5000 FT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
DURING DAYTIME MIXING...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF. WITH A
WARM FRONT STARTING TO APPROACH...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
THROUGH TODAY...A LITTLE HIGHER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY WEDNESDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THIS MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KBTV 280932
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
432 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING WILLELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MILDER
WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH
COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 425 AM EST FRIDAY...LIGHT SNOW RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER WESTERN
ZONES WHERE SOME CLEARING TAKING PLACE...AND EXPECT THIS
IMPROVEMENT TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. SNOW WILL
LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS DUE NORTHWEST
850 MB FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.
THESE COLD WINDS AND WARM LAKE WATERS WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP A
FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES GOING ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPES THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER
AIR ARRIVES.

WITH DEPARTURE OF TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST FROM GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS COMING TO AN END.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EST FRIDAY..RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH RECENT SNOWS...THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY MORNING
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE.
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE MERCURY DIP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
15F...AND WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SUBZERO READINGS EAST
OF THE GREENS.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
FLOW ALOFT. PROBLEM BECOMES PRECIPITATION TYPE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
06Z SUNDAY WHEN MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING IN MID
LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WARM ENOUGH IN
LOW LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS IN SAINT
LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY STILL ON THE
CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON BRISK
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...DESPITE
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EST FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC INTO
NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON FROPA TIMING INDICATING FRONT WILL BE THROUGH
THE BTV CWA BY 18Z MONDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AT THE TAIL
END OF THE PRECIP MID-DAY MONDAY. WITH THE EARLY FROPA...EXPECT
HIGHS TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM
THE 40S MORNING TO 30S AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND ONLY RISING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AS WELL BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE SURFACE TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW TURN SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TO OUR WEST. REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
PUSHES NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL ASCENT BEING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH SO
THINK A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKELY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD
THURSDAY CENTERING OVER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION HAS PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH CIGS
VARYING FROM MVFR TO VFR AND VSBY FROM MVFR TO IFR. CURRENT RADAR
SHOWS SNOWS LIFTING OUT OF KMSS/KRUT AND WILL BE EAST OF KSLK
WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SLIGHT DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AT KPBG WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THERE...BUT FOR KBTV AND KMPV IFR VSBY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS VFR
BY 12-13Z. AFTER 13Z...VSBY IS VFR AND ANY MVFR CIGS TREND TO VFR
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...SCT-BKN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN MVFR/IFR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 280932
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
432 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING WILLELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MILDER
WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH
COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 425 AM EST FRIDAY...LIGHT SNOW RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER WESTERN
ZONES WHERE SOME CLEARING TAKING PLACE...AND EXPECT THIS
IMPROVEMENT TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. SNOW WILL
LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS DUE NORTHWEST
850 MB FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.
THESE COLD WINDS AND WARM LAKE WATERS WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP A
FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES GOING ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPES THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER
AIR ARRIVES.

WITH DEPARTURE OF TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST FROM GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS COMING TO AN END.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EST FRIDAY..RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH RECENT SNOWS...THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY MORNING
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE.
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE MERCURY DIP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
15F...AND WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SUBZERO READINGS EAST
OF THE GREENS.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
FLOW ALOFT. PROBLEM BECOMES PRECIPITATION TYPE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
06Z SUNDAY WHEN MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING IN MID
LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WARM ENOUGH IN
LOW LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS IN SAINT
LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY STILL ON THE
CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON BRISK
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...DESPITE
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EST FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC INTO
NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON FROPA TIMING INDICATING FRONT WILL BE THROUGH
THE BTV CWA BY 18Z MONDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AT THE TAIL
END OF THE PRECIP MID-DAY MONDAY. WITH THE EARLY FROPA...EXPECT
HIGHS TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM
THE 40S MORNING TO 30S AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND ONLY RISING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AS WELL BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE SURFACE TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW TURN SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TO OUR WEST. REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
PUSHES NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL ASCENT BEING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH SO
THINK A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKELY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD
THURSDAY CENTERING OVER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION HAS PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH CIGS
VARYING FROM MVFR TO VFR AND VSBY FROM MVFR TO IFR. CURRENT RADAR
SHOWS SNOWS LIFTING OUT OF KMSS/KRUT AND WILL BE EAST OF KSLK
WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SLIGHT DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AT KPBG WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THERE...BUT FOR KBTV AND KMPV IFR VSBY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS VFR
BY 12-13Z. AFTER 13Z...VSBY IS VFR AND ANY MVFR CIGS TREND TO VFR
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...SCT-BKN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN MVFR/IFR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO
REFLECT LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO VERY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. QPF LIGHT WITH
ONLY NOMINAL LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE BLOCKED FLOW AND
DECENT MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS QUITE APPARENT UPON PERUSAL OF
RECENT 3-HOURLY RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THUS
LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR
SO...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT WHERE PERHAPS A
FLUFFY 2 OR 3 INCHES MAY FALL HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EST FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC INTO
NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON FROPA TIMING INDICATING FRONT WILL BE THROUGH
THE BTV CWA BY 18Z MONDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AT THE TAIL
END OF THE PRECIP MID-DAY MONDAY. WITH THE EARLY FROPA...EXPECT
HIGHS TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM
THE 40S MORNING TO 30S AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND ONLY RISING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AS WELL BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE SURFACE TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW TURN SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TO OUR WEST. REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
PUSHES NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL ASCENT BEING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH SO
THINK A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKELY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD
THURSDAY CENTERING OVER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION HAS PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH CIGS
VARYING FROM MVFR TO VFR AND VSBY FROM MVFR TO IFR. CURRENT RADAR
SHOWS SNOWS LIFTING OUT OF KMSS/KRUT AND WILL BE EAST OF KSLK
WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SLIGHT DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AT KPBG WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THERE...BUT FOR KBTV AND KMPV IFR VSBY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS VFR
BY 12-13Z. AFTER 13Z...VSBY IS VFR AND ANY MVFR CIGS TREND TO VFR
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...SCT-BKN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN MVFR/IFR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 280851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO
REFLECT LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO VERY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. QPF LIGHT WITH
ONLY NOMINAL LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE BLOCKED FLOW AND
DECENT MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS QUITE APPARENT UPON PERUSAL OF
RECENT 3-HOURLY RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THUS
LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR
SO...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT WHERE PERHAPS A
FLUFFY 2 OR 3 INCHES MAY FALL HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EST FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC INTO
NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON FROPA TIMING INDICATING FRONT WILL BE THROUGH
THE BTV CWA BY 18Z MONDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AT THE TAIL
END OF THE PRECIP MID-DAY MONDAY. WITH THE EARLY FROPA...EXPECT
HIGHS TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM
THE 40S MORNING TO 30S AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND ONLY RISING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AS WELL BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE SURFACE TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW TURN SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TO OUR WEST. REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
PUSHES NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL ASCENT BEING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH SO
THINK A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKELY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD
THURSDAY CENTERING OVER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION HAS PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH CIGS
VARYING FROM MVFR TO VFR AND VSBY FROM MVFR TO IFR. CURRENT RADAR
SHOWS SNOWS LIFTING OUT OF KMSS/KRUT AND WILL BE EAST OF KSLK
WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SLIGHT DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AT KPBG WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THERE...BUT FOR KBTV AND KMPV IFR VSBY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS VFR
BY 12-13Z. AFTER 13Z...VSBY IS VFR AND ANY MVFR CIGS TREND TO VFR
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...SCT-BKN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN MVFR/IFR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 280825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
325 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL AND LOCAL RADAR REVEAL VERY LIGHT
RETURNS OF THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FORWARD
MOVEMENT...THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AOA 12Z. THIS SHOULD ELIMINATE THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER AND MEAN FLOW BECOME WESTERLY ALONG
WITH COLD ADVECTION /H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD -15C/...LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK THROUGH THE DAY. PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...FAVORABLE INVERSION
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW LAKE BANDS TO TRACK
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THAT RIDGE THOUGH WILL LIMIT THE INLAND
EXTENT SOMEWHAT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE THE POPS MAINLY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN DACKS. AS
FOR THOSE CRUCIAL LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES...THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 280-310 PER THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR.

DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF
REGION...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT INLAND EXTENT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...A WARM FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TOO WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. SO WHERE
CLOUDS DO BREAK UP...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS BEFORE STEADYING OFF WITH THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT AND LIKELY HIGHER LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL
QPFS ARE RATHER LIGHT BUT DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPENDING
ON THERMAL PROFILES. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE BEST LIFT AND
LOW CPD/S WILL BE ACROSS THE DACKS REGION INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SO WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH
A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE WARMING THERMAL COLUMN...WE WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THEN INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ON SUNDAY. WE WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY ATTAINED IN THE
EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THIS FRONT WON/T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...BUT WILL ALLOW SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE UNCLEAR IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY.
IF IT WAITS UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY TO PASS THROUGH...TEMPS MAY WIND
UP BEING MILD FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS/.

BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ANY
PRECIP AND ALLOWS CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. WITH A COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK LIKE
THEY MAY WIND UP DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20 FOR MON
NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIP MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...PRECIP LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE TRANSITION...BUT
WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE GRIDS QUITE YET...AS THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS.  ANY PRECIP LOOKS
FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PREVENTING MUCH QPF IN GENERAL.
ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MINS TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. MINS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S.

ANOTHER BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY WILL QUIET AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLE...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS. ANY DRY
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF...AS YET ANOTHER STORM WITH LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE APPROACHING FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...SOME LINGERING SCT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ANY
SNOW SHOWER...A REDUCTION TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY IS POSSIBLE. KGFL HAS
EVEN BEEN SEEING SOME IFR VSBYS...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW HOURS THERE AS WELL.  BY LATE TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH MOISTURE LIMITED ACROSS
THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY THIS TIME.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM FOR THE VALLEY SITES...WITH A
WESTERLY BREEZE AROUND 5 KTS AT KPSF.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP.
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AS LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING...AND ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. STILL...CIGS WILL BE BKN AROUND 3500-5000
FT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. DURING DAYTIME
MIXING...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF. WITH A WARM FRONT
STARTING TO APPROACH...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
THROUGH TODAY...A LITTLE HIGHER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY WEDNESDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THIS MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 280825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
325 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL AND LOCAL RADAR REVEAL VERY LIGHT
RETURNS OF THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FORWARD
MOVEMENT...THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AOA 12Z. THIS SHOULD ELIMINATE THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER AND MEAN FLOW BECOME WESTERLY ALONG
WITH COLD ADVECTION /H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD -15C/...LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK THROUGH THE DAY. PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...FAVORABLE INVERSION
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW LAKE BANDS TO TRACK
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THAT RIDGE THOUGH WILL LIMIT THE INLAND
EXTENT SOMEWHAT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE THE POPS MAINLY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN DACKS. AS
FOR THOSE CRUCIAL LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES...THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 280-310 PER THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR.

DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF
REGION...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT INLAND EXTENT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...A WARM FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TOO WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. SO WHERE
CLOUDS DO BREAK UP...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS BEFORE STEADYING OFF WITH THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT AND LIKELY HIGHER LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL
QPFS ARE RATHER LIGHT BUT DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPENDING
ON THERMAL PROFILES. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE BEST LIFT AND
LOW CPD/S WILL BE ACROSS THE DACKS REGION INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SO WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH
A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE WARMING THERMAL COLUMN...WE WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THEN INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ON SUNDAY. WE WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY ATTAINED IN THE
EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THIS FRONT WON/T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...BUT WILL ALLOW SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE UNCLEAR IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY.
IF IT WAITS UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY TO PASS THROUGH...TEMPS MAY WIND
UP BEING MILD FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS/.

BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ANY
PRECIP AND ALLOWS CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. WITH A COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK LIKE
THEY MAY WIND UP DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20 FOR MON
NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIP MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...PRECIP LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE TRANSITION...BUT
WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE GRIDS QUITE YET...AS THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS.  ANY PRECIP LOOKS
FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PREVENTING MUCH QPF IN GENERAL.
ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MINS TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. MINS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S.

ANOTHER BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY WILL QUIET AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLE...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS. ANY DRY
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF...AS YET ANOTHER STORM WITH LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE APPROACHING FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...SOME LINGERING SCT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ANY
SNOW SHOWER...A REDUCTION TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY IS POSSIBLE. KGFL HAS
EVEN BEEN SEEING SOME IFR VSBYS...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW HOURS THERE AS WELL.  BY LATE TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH MOISTURE LIMITED ACROSS
THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY THIS TIME.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM FOR THE VALLEY SITES...WITH A
WESTERLY BREEZE AROUND 5 KTS AT KPSF.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP.
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AS LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING...AND ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. STILL...CIGS WILL BE BKN AROUND 3500-5000
FT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. DURING DAYTIME
MIXING...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF. WITH A WARM FRONT
STARTING TO APPROACH...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
THROUGH TODAY...A LITTLE HIGHER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY WEDNESDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THIS MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 280825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
325 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL AND LOCAL RADAR REVEAL VERY LIGHT
RETURNS OF THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FORWARD
MOVEMENT...THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AOA 12Z. THIS SHOULD ELIMINATE THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER AND MEAN FLOW BECOME WESTERLY ALONG
WITH COLD ADVECTION /H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD -15C/...LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK THROUGH THE DAY. PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...FAVORABLE INVERSION
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW LAKE BANDS TO TRACK
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THAT RIDGE THOUGH WILL LIMIT THE INLAND
EXTENT SOMEWHAT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE THE POPS MAINLY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN DACKS. AS
FOR THOSE CRUCIAL LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES...THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 280-310 PER THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR.

DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF
REGION...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT INLAND EXTENT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...A WARM FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TOO WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. SO WHERE
CLOUDS DO BREAK UP...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS BEFORE STEADYING OFF WITH THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT AND LIKELY HIGHER LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL
QPFS ARE RATHER LIGHT BUT DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPENDING
ON THERMAL PROFILES. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE BEST LIFT AND
LOW CPD/S WILL BE ACROSS THE DACKS REGION INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SO WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH
A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE WARMING THERMAL COLUMN...WE WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THEN INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ON SUNDAY. WE WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY ATTAINED IN THE
EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THIS FRONT WON/T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...BUT WILL ALLOW SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE UNCLEAR IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY.
IF IT WAITS UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY TO PASS THROUGH...TEMPS MAY WIND
UP BEING MILD FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS/.

BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ANY
PRECIP AND ALLOWS CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. WITH A COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK LIKE
THEY MAY WIND UP DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20 FOR MON
NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIP MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...PRECIP LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE TRANSITION...BUT
WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE GRIDS QUITE YET...AS THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS.  ANY PRECIP LOOKS
FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PREVENTING MUCH QPF IN GENERAL.
ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MINS TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. MINS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S.

ANOTHER BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY WILL QUIET AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLE...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS. ANY DRY
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF...AS YET ANOTHER STORM WITH LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE APPROACHING FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...SOME LINGERING SCT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ANY
SNOW SHOWER...A REDUCTION TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY IS POSSIBLE. KGFL HAS
EVEN BEEN SEEING SOME IFR VSBYS...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW HOURS THERE AS WELL.  BY LATE TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH MOISTURE LIMITED ACROSS
THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY THIS TIME.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM FOR THE VALLEY SITES...WITH A
WESTERLY BREEZE AROUND 5 KTS AT KPSF.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP.
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AS LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING...AND ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. STILL...CIGS WILL BE BKN AROUND 3500-5000
FT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. DURING DAYTIME
MIXING...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF. WITH A WARM FRONT
STARTING TO APPROACH...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
THROUGH TODAY...A LITTLE HIGHER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY WEDNESDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THIS MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 280825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
325 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL AND LOCAL RADAR REVEAL VERY LIGHT
RETURNS OF THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FORWARD
MOVEMENT...THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AOA 12Z. THIS SHOULD ELIMINATE THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER AND MEAN FLOW BECOME WESTERLY ALONG
WITH COLD ADVECTION /H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD -15C/...LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK THROUGH THE DAY. PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...FAVORABLE INVERSION
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW LAKE BANDS TO TRACK
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THAT RIDGE THOUGH WILL LIMIT THE INLAND
EXTENT SOMEWHAT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE THE POPS MAINLY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN DACKS. AS
FOR THOSE CRUCIAL LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES...THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 280-310 PER THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR.

DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF
REGION...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT INLAND EXTENT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...A WARM FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TOO WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. SO WHERE
CLOUDS DO BREAK UP...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS BEFORE STEADYING OFF WITH THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT AND LIKELY HIGHER LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL
QPFS ARE RATHER LIGHT BUT DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPENDING
ON THERMAL PROFILES. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE BEST LIFT AND
LOW CPD/S WILL BE ACROSS THE DACKS REGION INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SO WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH
A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE WARMING THERMAL COLUMN...WE WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THEN INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ON SUNDAY. WE WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY ATTAINED IN THE
EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THIS FRONT WON/T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...BUT WILL ALLOW SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE UNCLEAR IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY.
IF IT WAITS UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY TO PASS THROUGH...TEMPS MAY WIND
UP BEING MILD FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS
/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS/.

BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ANY
PRECIP AND ALLOWS CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. WITH A COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK LIKE
THEY MAY WIND UP DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20 FOR MON
NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIP MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...PRECIP LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
EVEN BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE TRANSITION...BUT
WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE GRIDS QUITE YET...AS THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS.  ANY PRECIP LOOKS
FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PREVENTING MUCH QPF IN GENERAL.
ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MINS TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. MINS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S.

ANOTHER BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY WILL QUIET AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLE...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS. ANY DRY
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF...AS YET ANOTHER STORM WITH LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE APPROACHING FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...SOME LINGERING SCT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ANY
SNOW SHOWER...A REDUCTION TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY IS POSSIBLE. KGFL HAS
EVEN BEEN SEEING SOME IFR VSBYS...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW HOURS THERE AS WELL.  BY LATE TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH MOISTURE LIMITED ACROSS
THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY THIS TIME.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM FOR THE VALLEY SITES...WITH A
WESTERLY BREEZE AROUND 5 KTS AT KPSF.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP.
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AS LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING...AND ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. STILL...CIGS WILL BE BKN AROUND 3500-5000
FT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. DURING DAYTIME
MIXING...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF. WITH A WARM FRONT
STARTING TO APPROACH...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
THROUGH TODAY...A LITTLE HIGHER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY WEDNESDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THIS MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KBTV 280552
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO
REFLECT LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO VERY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. QPF LIGHT WITH
ONLY NOMINAL LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE BLOCKED FLOW AND
DECENT MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS QUITE APPARENT UPON PERUSAL OF
RECENT 3-HOURLY RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THUS
LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR
SO...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT WHERE PERHAPS A
FLUFFY 2 OR 3 INCHES MAY FALL HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 RANGE.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 618 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION HAS PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH CIGS
VARYING FROM MVFR TO VFR AND VSBY FROM MVFR TO IFR. CURRENT RADAR
SHOWS SNOWS LIFTING OUT OF KMSS/KRUT AND WILL BE EAST OF KSLK
WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SLIGHT DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AT KPBG WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THERE...BUT FOR KBTV AND KMPV IFR VSBY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS VFR
BY 12-13Z. AFTER 13Z...VSBY IS VFR AND ANY MVFR CIGS TREND TO VFR
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...SCT-BKN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN MVFR/IFR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280552
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO
REFLECT LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO VERY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. QPF LIGHT WITH
ONLY NOMINAL LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE BLOCKED FLOW AND
DECENT MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS QUITE APPARENT UPON PERUSAL OF
RECENT 3-HOURLY RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THUS
LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR
SO...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT WHERE PERHAPS A
FLUFFY 2 OR 3 INCHES MAY FALL HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 RANGE.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 618 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION HAS PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH CIGS
VARYING FROM MVFR TO VFR AND VSBY FROM MVFR TO IFR. CURRENT RADAR
SHOWS SNOWS LIFTING OUT OF KMSS/KRUT AND WILL BE EAST OF KSLK
WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SLIGHT DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AT KPBG WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THERE...BUT FOR KBTV AND KMPV IFR VSBY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS VFR
BY 12-13Z. AFTER 13Z...VSBY IS VFR AND ANY MVFR CIGS TREND TO VFR
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...SCT-BKN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN MVFR/IFR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS BECOME
ENHANCED SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...MAINLY INTO THE
TERRAIN. PER SHORT TERM MODELS AND TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN NY SLIDES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD SUNRISE.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIP...WE WILL RAISE OVERNIGHT
LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE NEAR KPOU
WHERE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP OVERNIGHT A BIT LOWER WHICH IS
COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...SOME LINGERING SCT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ANY
SNOW SHOWER...A REDUCTION TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY IS POSSIBLE. KGFL HAS
EVEN BEEN SEEING SOME IFR VSBYS...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW HOURS THERE AS WELL.  BY LATE TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH MOISTURE LIMITED ACROSS
THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY THIS TIME.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM FOR THE VALLEY SITES...WITH A
WESTERLY BREEZE AROUND 5 KTS AT KPSF.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP.
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AS LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING...AND ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. STILL...CIGS WILL BE BKN AROUND 3500-5000
FT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. DURING DAYTIME
MIXING...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF. WITH A WARM FRONT
STARTING TO APPROACH...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY








000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS BECOME
ENHANCED SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...MAINLY INTO THE
TERRAIN. PER SHORT TERM MODELS AND TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN NY SLIDES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD SUNRISE.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIP...WE WILL RAISE OVERNIGHT
LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE NEAR KPOU
WHERE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP OVERNIGHT A BIT LOWER WHICH IS
COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...SOME LINGERING SCT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ANY
SNOW SHOWER...A REDUCTION TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY IS POSSIBLE. KGFL HAS
EVEN BEEN SEEING SOME IFR VSBYS...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW HOURS THERE AS WELL.  BY LATE TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH MOISTURE LIMITED ACROSS
THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY THIS TIME.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM FOR THE VALLEY SITES...WITH A
WESTERLY BREEZE AROUND 5 KTS AT KPSF.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP.
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AS LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING...AND ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. STILL...CIGS WILL BE BKN AROUND 3500-5000
FT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. DURING DAYTIME
MIXING...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF. WITH A WARM FRONT
STARTING TO APPROACH...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY








000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS BECOME
ENHANCED SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...MAINLY INTO THE
TERRAIN. PER SHORT TERM MODELS AND TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN NY SLIDES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD SUNRISE.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIP...WE WILL RAISE OVERNIGHT
LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE NEAR KPOU
WHERE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP OVERNIGHT A BIT LOWER WHICH IS
COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...SOME LINGERING SCT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ANY
SNOW SHOWER...A REDUCTION TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY IS POSSIBLE. KGFL HAS
EVEN BEEN SEEING SOME IFR VSBYS...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW HOURS THERE AS WELL.  BY LATE TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH MOISTURE LIMITED ACROSS
THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY THIS TIME.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM FOR THE VALLEY SITES...WITH A
WESTERLY BREEZE AROUND 5 KTS AT KPSF.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP.
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AS LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING...AND ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. STILL...CIGS WILL BE BKN AROUND 3500-5000
FT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. DURING DAYTIME
MIXING...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF. WITH A WARM FRONT
STARTING TO APPROACH...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY








000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS BECOME
ENHANCED SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...MAINLY INTO THE
TERRAIN. PER SHORT TERM MODELS AND TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN NY SLIDES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD SUNRISE.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIP...WE WILL RAISE OVERNIGHT
LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE NEAR KPOU
WHERE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP OVERNIGHT A BIT LOWER WHICH IS
COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...SOME LINGERING SCT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ANY
SNOW SHOWER...A REDUCTION TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY IS POSSIBLE. KGFL HAS
EVEN BEEN SEEING SOME IFR VSBYS...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW HOURS THERE AS WELL.  BY LATE TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH MOISTURE LIMITED ACROSS
THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY THIS TIME.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM FOR THE VALLEY SITES...WITH A
WESTERLY BREEZE AROUND 5 KTS AT KPSF.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP.
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AS LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING...AND ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. STILL...CIGS WILL BE BKN AROUND 3500-5000
FT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. DURING DAYTIME
MIXING...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF. WITH A WARM FRONT
STARTING TO APPROACH...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY








000
FXUS61 KBTV 280522
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1222 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO
REFLECT LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO VERY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. QPF LIGHT WITH
ONLY NOMINAL LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE BLOCKED FLOW AND
DECENT MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS QUITE APPARENT UPON PERUSAL OF
RECENT 3-HOURLY RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THUS
LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR
SO...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT WHERE PERHAPS A
FLUFFY 2 OR 3 INCHES MAY FALL HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 RANGE.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 618 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AFTER 12Z...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE EXITED WITH
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND SOME SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR SOME
CLEARING. ANY LINGERING MVFR SHOULD BECOME VFR. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AOA 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW



000
FXUS61 KBTV 280522
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1222 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO
REFLECT LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO VERY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. QPF LIGHT WITH
ONLY NOMINAL LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE BLOCKED FLOW AND
DECENT MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS QUITE APPARENT UPON PERUSAL OF
RECENT 3-HOURLY RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THUS
LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR
SO...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT WHERE PERHAPS A
FLUFFY 2 OR 3 INCHES MAY FALL HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 RANGE.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 618 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AFTER 12Z...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE EXITED WITH
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND SOME SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR SOME
CLEARING. ANY LINGERING MVFR SHOULD BECOME VFR. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AOA 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW



000
FXUS61 KBTV 280522
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1222 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO
REFLECT LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO VERY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. QPF LIGHT WITH
ONLY NOMINAL LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE BLOCKED FLOW AND
DECENT MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS QUITE APPARENT UPON PERUSAL OF
RECENT 3-HOURLY RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THUS
LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR
SO...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT WHERE PERHAPS A
FLUFFY 2 OR 3 INCHES MAY FALL HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 RANGE.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 618 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AFTER 12Z...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE EXITED WITH
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND SOME SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR SOME
CLEARING. ANY LINGERING MVFR SHOULD BECOME VFR. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AOA 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW



000
FXUS61 KBTV 280522
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1222 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO
REFLECT LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO VERY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. QPF LIGHT WITH
ONLY NOMINAL LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE BLOCKED FLOW AND
DECENT MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS QUITE APPARENT UPON PERUSAL OF
RECENT 3-HOURLY RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THUS
LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR
SO...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT WHERE PERHAPS A
FLUFFY 2 OR 3 INCHES MAY FALL HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 RANGE.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 618 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AFTER 12Z...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE EXITED WITH
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND SOME SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR SOME
CLEARING. ANY LINGERING MVFR SHOULD BECOME VFR. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AOA 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW



000
FXUS61 KBTV 280225
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
925 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING
TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM EST THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RATHER NEBULOUS SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL NORTHEASTERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOWS AND/OR PERIODS OF FLURRIES. QPF LIGHT WITH ONLY NOMINAL LIFT
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE BLOCKED FLOW AND DECENT MOISTURE
DEPTH. THIS IS QUITE APPARENT UPON PERUSAL OF RECENT 3-HOURLY
RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THUS LOOKING AT
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR SO...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT WHERE PERHAPS A FLUFFY 2 OR 3
INCHES MAY FALL HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED THERMAL ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 RANGE. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 618 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AFTER 12Z...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE EXITED WITH
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND SOME SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR SOME
CLEARING. ANY LINGERING MVFR SHOULD BECOME VFR. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AOA 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW



000
FXUS61 KBTV 280225
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
925 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING
TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM EST THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RATHER NEBULOUS SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL NORTHEASTERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOWS AND/OR PERIODS OF FLURRIES. QPF LIGHT WITH ONLY NOMINAL LIFT
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE BLOCKED FLOW AND DECENT MOISTURE
DEPTH. THIS IS QUITE APPARENT UPON PERUSAL OF RECENT 3-HOURLY
RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THUS LOOKING AT
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR SO...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT WHERE PERHAPS A FLUFFY 2 OR 3
INCHES MAY FALL HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED THERMAL ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 RANGE. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 618 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AFTER 12Z...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE EXITED WITH
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND SOME SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR SOME
CLEARING. ANY LINGERING MVFR SHOULD BECOME VFR. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AOA 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW




000
FXUS61 KALY 280216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
916 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS BECOME
ENHANCED SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, FOR THIS UPDATE
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
THEN DECREASE POPS LATER ON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS WHICH ARE TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE TROUGH
SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL NY. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS
EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND SE NEW ENGLAND. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC TROUGH...PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS...ALTHOUGH EVEN LOCALLY UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THUS SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED IN THE
ZONES FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST. MOST OF
THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL HAVE ON
AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
EXPECTED EVEN WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN
SNOWING AT KPSF EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF FROM MID MORNING
FRIDAY ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 280216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
916 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS BECOME
ENHANCED SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, FOR THIS UPDATE
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
THEN DECREASE POPS LATER ON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS WHICH ARE TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE TROUGH
SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL NY. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS
EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND SE NEW ENGLAND. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC TROUGH...PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS...ALTHOUGH EVEN LOCALLY UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THUS SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED IN THE
ZONES FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST. MOST OF
THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL HAVE ON
AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
EXPECTED EVEN WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN
SNOWING AT KPSF EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF FROM MID MORNING
FRIDAY ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 280216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
916 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS BECOME
ENHANCED SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, FOR THIS UPDATE
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
THEN DECREASE POPS LATER ON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS WHICH ARE TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE TROUGH
SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL NY. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS
EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND SE NEW ENGLAND. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC TROUGH...PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS...ALTHOUGH EVEN LOCALLY UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THUS SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED IN THE
ZONES FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST. MOST OF
THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL HAVE ON
AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
EXPECTED EVEN WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN
SNOWING AT KPSF EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF FROM MID MORNING
FRIDAY ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 280216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
916 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS BECOME
ENHANCED SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, FOR THIS UPDATE
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
THEN DECREASE POPS LATER ON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS WHICH ARE TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE TROUGH
SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL NY. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS
EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND SE NEW ENGLAND. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC TROUGH...PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS...ALTHOUGH EVEN LOCALLY UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THUS SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED IN THE
ZONES FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST. MOST OF
THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL HAVE ON
AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
EXPECTED EVEN WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN
SNOWING AT KPSF EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF FROM MID MORNING
FRIDAY ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 272350
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS
WHICH ARE ALSO TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL PA AND ANOTHER LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THIS PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND
SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC
TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST OF THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
EXPECTED EVEN WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN
SNOWING AT KPSF EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF FROM MID MORNING
FRIDAY ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KALY 272350
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS
WHICH ARE ALSO TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL PA AND ANOTHER LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THIS PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND
SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC
TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST OF THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
EXPECTED EVEN WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN
SNOWING AT KPSF EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF FROM MID MORNING
FRIDAY ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KBTV 272340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING
TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EST THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD DATA TO
BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT. 1ST S/W
ACRS CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WL
IMPACT OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WL MOVE
ACRS OUR FA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WL
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WL INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY/CAT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING
FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED ON THE
BTV4/6/12 AND ARW/NAM SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW WEAK REFLECTIVITY
SIGNATURES MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR FA TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH S/W ENERGY AND MID LVL MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY MORNING...WEAK
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND ENERGY AND SOME LAKE CHAMPLAIN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...TO LAKE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND
-14C...FROUDE #`S OFF THE BTV4 ARE VERY LOW BTWN 0.40 AND
0.80...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES REGION. ALSO...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WL HELP
ENHANCE LLVL CONVERGENCE ACRS THE EASTERN CPV/WESTERN SLOPES...TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WEAK LIFT...BUT FLW IS LIGHT SO FORCING WL BE
LIMITED. LOOKING AT LOCAL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD RH >90% IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO WE SHOULD SEE GOOD FLAKE SIZE
WITH THIS LIGHT EVENT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A
DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACRS THE
WESTERN SLOPE/NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN CPV. QPF WL
BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" THRU FRIDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WL DROP INTO THE UPPER 10S MTNS TO L/M 20S
VALLEYS.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 618 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AFTER 12Z...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE EXITED WITH
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND SOME SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR SOME
CLEARING. ANY LINGERING MVFR SHOULD BECOME VFR. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AOA 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 272340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING
TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EST THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD DATA TO
BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT. 1ST S/W
ACRS CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WL
IMPACT OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WL MOVE
ACRS OUR FA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WL
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WL INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY/CAT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING
FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED ON THE
BTV4/6/12 AND ARW/NAM SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW WEAK REFLECTIVITY
SIGNATURES MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR FA TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH S/W ENERGY AND MID LVL MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY MORNING...WEAK
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND ENERGY AND SOME LAKE CHAMPLAIN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...TO LAKE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND
-14C...FROUDE #`S OFF THE BTV4 ARE VERY LOW BTWN 0.40 AND
0.80...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES REGION. ALSO...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WL HELP
ENHANCE LLVL CONVERGENCE ACRS THE EASTERN CPV/WESTERN SLOPES...TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WEAK LIFT...BUT FLW IS LIGHT SO FORCING WL BE
LIMITED. LOOKING AT LOCAL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD RH >90% IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO WE SHOULD SEE GOOD FLAKE SIZE
WITH THIS LIGHT EVENT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A
DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACRS THE
WESTERN SLOPE/NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN CPV. QPF WL
BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" THRU FRIDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WL DROP INTO THE UPPER 10S MTNS TO L/M 20S
VALLEYS.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 618 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AFTER 12Z...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE EXITED WITH
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND SOME SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR SOME
CLEARING. ANY LINGERING MVFR SHOULD BECOME VFR. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AOA 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 272340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING
TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EST THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD DATA TO
BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT. 1ST S/W
ACRS CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WL
IMPACT OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WL MOVE
ACRS OUR FA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WL
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WL INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY/CAT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING
FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED ON THE
BTV4/6/12 AND ARW/NAM SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW WEAK REFLECTIVITY
SIGNATURES MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR FA TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH S/W ENERGY AND MID LVL MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY MORNING...WEAK
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND ENERGY AND SOME LAKE CHAMPLAIN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...TO LAKE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND
-14C...FROUDE #`S OFF THE BTV4 ARE VERY LOW BTWN 0.40 AND
0.80...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES REGION. ALSO...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WL HELP
ENHANCE LLVL CONVERGENCE ACRS THE EASTERN CPV/WESTERN SLOPES...TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WEAK LIFT...BUT FLW IS LIGHT SO FORCING WL BE
LIMITED. LOOKING AT LOCAL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD RH >90% IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO WE SHOULD SEE GOOD FLAKE SIZE
WITH THIS LIGHT EVENT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A
DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACRS THE
WESTERN SLOPE/NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN CPV. QPF WL
BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" THRU FRIDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WL DROP INTO THE UPPER 10S MTNS TO L/M 20S
VALLEYS.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 618 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AFTER 12Z...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE EXITED WITH
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND SOME SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR SOME
CLEARING. ANY LINGERING MVFR SHOULD BECOME VFR. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AOA 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 272340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING
TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EST THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD DATA TO
BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT. 1ST S/W
ACRS CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WL
IMPACT OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WL MOVE
ACRS OUR FA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WL
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WL INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY/CAT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING
FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED ON THE
BTV4/6/12 AND ARW/NAM SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW WEAK REFLECTIVITY
SIGNATURES MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR FA TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH S/W ENERGY AND MID LVL MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY MORNING...WEAK
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND ENERGY AND SOME LAKE CHAMPLAIN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...TO LAKE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND
-14C...FROUDE #`S OFF THE BTV4 ARE VERY LOW BTWN 0.40 AND
0.80...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES REGION. ALSO...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WL HELP
ENHANCE LLVL CONVERGENCE ACRS THE EASTERN CPV/WESTERN SLOPES...TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WEAK LIFT...BUT FLW IS LIGHT SO FORCING WL BE
LIMITED. LOOKING AT LOCAL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD RH >90% IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO WE SHOULD SEE GOOD FLAKE SIZE
WITH THIS LIGHT EVENT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A
DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACRS THE
WESTERN SLOPE/NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN CPV. QPF WL
BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" THRU FRIDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WL DROP INTO THE UPPER 10S MTNS TO L/M 20S
VALLEYS.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 618 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AFTER 12Z...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE EXITED WITH
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND SOME SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR SOME
CLEARING. ANY LINGERING MVFR SHOULD BECOME VFR. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AOA 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 272320
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
620 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING
TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EST THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD DATA TO
BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT. 1ST S/W
ACRS CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WL
IMPACT OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WL MOVE
ACRS OUR FA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WL
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WL INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY/CAT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING
FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED ON THE
BTV4/6/12 AND ARW/NAM SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW WEAK REFLECTIVITY
SIGNATURES MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR FA TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH S/W ENERGY AND MID LVL MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY MORNING...WEAK
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND ENERGY AND SOME LAKE CHAMPLAIN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...TO LAKE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND
-14C...FROUDE #`S OFF THE BTV4 ARE VERY LOW BTWN 0.40 AND
0.80...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES REGION. ALSO...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WL HELP
ENHANCE LLVL CONVERGENCE ACRS THE EASTERN CPV/WESTERN SLOPES...TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WEAK LIFT...BUT FLW IS LIGHT SO FORCING WL BE
LIMITED. LOOKING AT LOCAL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD RH >90% IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO WE SHOULD SEE GOOD FLAKE SIZE
WITH THIS LIGHT EVENT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A
DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACRS THE
WESTERN SLOPE/NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN CPV. QPF WL
BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" THRU FRIDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WL DROP INTO THE UPPER 10S MTNS TO L/M 20S
VALLEYS.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 618 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 FT RANGE BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE WESTERN NY TAF SITES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE
WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KALY 272314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS
WHICH ARE ALSO TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL PA AND ANOTHER LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THIS PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND
SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC
TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST OF THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
EXPECTED EVEN WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN
SNOWING AT KPSF EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF FROM MID MORNING
FRIDAY ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KALY 272314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS
WHICH ARE ALSO TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL PA AND ANOTHER LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THIS PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND
SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC
TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST OF THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
EXPECTED EVEN WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN
SNOWING AT KPSF EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF FROM MID MORNING
FRIDAY ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KALY 272314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS
WHICH ARE ALSO TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL PA AND ANOTHER LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THIS PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND
SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC
TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST OF THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
EXPECTED EVEN WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN
SNOWING AT KPSF EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF FROM MID MORNING
FRIDAY ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KALY 272314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS
WHICH ARE ALSO TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL PA AND ANOTHER LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THIS PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND
SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC
TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST OF THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
EXPECTED EVEN WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN
SNOWING AT KPSF EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF FROM MID MORNING
FRIDAY ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KALY 272303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS
WHICH ARE ALSO TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL PA AND ANOTHER LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THIS PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND
SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC
TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST OF THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 272303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS
WHICH ARE ALSO TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL PA AND ANOTHER LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THIS PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND
SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC
TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST OF THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 272303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS
WHICH ARE ALSO TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL PA AND ANOTHER LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THIS PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND
SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC
TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST OF THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 272303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS
WHICH ARE ALSO TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL PA AND ANOTHER LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THIS PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND
SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC
TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST OF THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 272121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
421 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 421 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A PIECE
OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-
WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS ICCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY STAFF








000
FXUS61 KALY 272121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
421 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 421 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A PIECE
OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-
WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS ICCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY STAFF








000
FXUS61 KALY 272121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
421 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 421 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A PIECE
OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-
WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS ICCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY STAFF








000
FXUS61 KALY 272121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
421 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 421 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A PIECE
OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-
WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS ICCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY STAFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 272033
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING
TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE
WEST/NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT. 1ST S/W ACRS CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WITH
SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WL IMPACT OUR CWA THIS
EVENING...WHILE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WL MOVE ACRS OUR FA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WL COMBINED WITH
SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW EVENT ACRS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY/CAT TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED ON THE BTV4/6/12 AND ARW/NAM
SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW WEAK REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES MOVING FROM SW TO
NE ACRS OUR FA TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY AND MID LVL
MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY MORNING...WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND ENERGY
AND SOME LAKE CHAMPLAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE
LIKELY. IN ADDITION...TO LAKE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C...FROUDE #`S OFF THE BTV4 ARE VERY
LOW BTWN 0.40 AND 0.80...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW AND POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES REGION.
ALSO...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WL HELP ENHANCE LLVL CONVERGENCE ACRS
THE EASTERN CPV/WESTERN SLOPES...TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WEAK
LIFT...BUT FLW IS LIGHT SO FORCING WL BE LIMITED. LOOKING AT LOCAL
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD RH >90% IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...SO WE SHOULD SEE GOOD FLAKE SIZE WITH THIS LIGHT EVENT.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR
TWO...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPE/NORTHERN DACKS
AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN CPV. QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10"
THRU FRIDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS WL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 10S MTNS TO L/M 20S VALLEYS.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 FT RANGE BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE WESTERN NY TAF SITES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE
WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 272033
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING
TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE
WEST/NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT. 1ST S/W ACRS CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WITH
SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WL IMPACT OUR CWA THIS
EVENING...WHILE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WL MOVE ACRS OUR FA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WL COMBINED WITH
SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW EVENT ACRS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY/CAT TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED ON THE BTV4/6/12 AND ARW/NAM
SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW WEAK REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES MOVING FROM SW TO
NE ACRS OUR FA TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY AND MID LVL
MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY MORNING...WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND ENERGY
AND SOME LAKE CHAMPLAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE
LIKELY. IN ADDITION...TO LAKE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C...FROUDE #`S OFF THE BTV4 ARE VERY
LOW BTWN 0.40 AND 0.80...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW AND POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES REGION.
ALSO...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WL HELP ENHANCE LLVL CONVERGENCE ACRS
THE EASTERN CPV/WESTERN SLOPES...TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WEAK
LIFT...BUT FLW IS LIGHT SO FORCING WL BE LIMITED. LOOKING AT LOCAL
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD RH >90% IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...SO WE SHOULD SEE GOOD FLAKE SIZE WITH THIS LIGHT EVENT.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR
TWO...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPE/NORTHERN DACKS
AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN CPV. QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10"
THRU FRIDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS WL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 10S MTNS TO L/M 20S VALLEYS.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 FT RANGE BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE WESTERN NY TAF SITES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE
WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KALY 271807
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY VALUES OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...WRN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. A SMALL AREA OF CATEGORICAL
VALUES WAS USED FOR THE ERN CATSKILLS. A DUSTING TO A HALF AN INCH
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THIS PM INTO TONIGHT...

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS ICCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH
HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY STAFF










000
FXUS61 KALY 271807
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY VALUES OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...WRN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. A SMALL AREA OF CATEGORICAL
VALUES WAS USED FOR THE ERN CATSKILLS. A DUSTING TO A HALF AN INCH
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THIS PM INTO TONIGHT...

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS ICCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH
HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY STAFF










000
FXUS61 KALY 271807
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY VALUES OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...WRN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. A SMALL AREA OF CATEGORICAL
VALUES WAS USED FOR THE ERN CATSKILLS. A DUSTING TO A HALF AN INCH
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THIS PM INTO TONIGHT...

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS ICCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH
HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY STAFF










000
FXUS61 KALY 271807
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY VALUES OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...WRN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. A SMALL AREA OF CATEGORICAL
VALUES WAS USED FOR THE ERN CATSKILLS. A DUSTING TO A HALF AN INCH
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THIS PM INTO TONIGHT...

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS ICCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH
HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY STAFF










000
FXUS61 KBTV 271803
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
103 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST THURSDAY...UPDATED FCST TO LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOW AND LIMITED SUNSHINE HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPS STRUGGLING IN THE 20S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR
30F THIS AFTN. THINKING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO TO CRNT OBS WL WORK
FOR THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HAVE REVIEWED THE LATEST 12Z
DATA AND WL BE INCREASING POPS TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SNOW EVENT
LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SEVERAL SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACRS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DACKS/GREEN MTNS AND THE
EASTERN CPV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 FT RANGE BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE WESTERN NY TAF SITES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE
WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KBTV 271803
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
103 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST THURSDAY...UPDATED FCST TO LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOW AND LIMITED SUNSHINE HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPS STRUGGLING IN THE 20S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR
30F THIS AFTN. THINKING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO TO CRNT OBS WL WORK
FOR THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HAVE REVIEWED THE LATEST 12Z
DATA AND WL BE INCREASING POPS TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SNOW EVENT
LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SEVERAL SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACRS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DACKS/GREEN MTNS AND THE
EASTERN CPV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 FT RANGE BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE WESTERN NY TAF SITES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE
WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KALY 271755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1255 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY VALUES OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...WRN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. A SMALL AREA OF CATEGORICAL
VALUES WAS USED FOR THE ERN CATSKILLS. A DUSTING TO A HALF AN INCH
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THIS PM INTO TONIGHT...

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH
HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY STAFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 271728
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1228 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST THURSDAY...UPDATED FCST TO LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOW AND LIMITED SUNSHINE HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPS STRUGGLING IN THE 20S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR
30F THIS AFTN. THINKING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO TO CRNT OBS WL WORK
FOR THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HAVE REVIEWED THE LATEST 12Z
DATA AND WL BE INCREASING POPS TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SNOW EVENT
LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SEVERAL SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACRS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DACKS/GREEN MTNS AND THE
EASTERN CPV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 271728
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1228 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST THURSDAY...UPDATED FCST TO LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOW AND LIMITED SUNSHINE HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPS STRUGGLING IN THE 20S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR
30F THIS AFTN. THINKING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO TO CRNT OBS WL WORK
FOR THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HAVE REVIEWED THE LATEST 12Z
DATA AND WL BE INCREASING POPS TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SNOW EVENT
LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SEVERAL SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACRS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DACKS/GREEN MTNS AND THE
EASTERN CPV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 271728
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1228 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST THURSDAY...UPDATED FCST TO LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOW AND LIMITED SUNSHINE HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPS STRUGGLING IN THE 20S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR
30F THIS AFTN. THINKING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO TO CRNT OBS WL WORK
FOR THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HAVE REVIEWED THE LATEST 12Z
DATA AND WL BE INCREASING POPS TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SNOW EVENT
LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SEVERAL SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACRS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DACKS/GREEN MTNS AND THE
EASTERN CPV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 271728
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1228 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST THURSDAY...UPDATED FCST TO LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOW AND LIMITED SUNSHINE HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPS STRUGGLING IN THE 20S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR
30F THIS AFTN. THINKING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO TO CRNT OBS WL WORK
FOR THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HAVE REVIEWED THE LATEST 12Z
DATA AND WL BE INCREASING POPS TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SNOW EVENT
LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SEVERAL SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACRS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DACKS/GREEN MTNS AND THE
EASTERN CPV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 271459
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS SHOW THAT NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND HAVE RAISED POPS THERE
TO LIKELY. WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER UPDATES TO SEE IF WE NEED HIGHER
POPS IN THE LOWER TERRAIN AREAS.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH
HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY










000
FXUS61 KALY 271459
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS SHOW THAT NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND HAVE RAISED POPS THERE
TO LIKELY. WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER UPDATES TO SEE IF WE NEED HIGHER
POPS IN THE LOWER TERRAIN AREAS.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH
HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY











000
FXUS61 KBTV 271429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
929 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST THURSDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND TEMPS BASED
ON CRNT CONDITIONS AND LATEST RADAR. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...CPV AND HIGHER TRRN OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT MTNS. THE
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER BL TO 850MB RH...WEAK LLVL CAA...AND
UPSLOPE FLW WL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE HIGHER
TRRN THRU 18Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION...AS DEPTH OF
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. OTHERWISE...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -10C
AND -12C MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...HAVE NOTED A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING PER LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THEREFORE HAVE MENTION CHC POPS ACRS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CPV THRU 16Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. HAVE SWITCHED
THE CXX RADAR INTO VCP 31 TO DETECT THE LIGHT PRECIP BETTER. REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE 20S TO NEAR 30F BY THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL
WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP
REST OF HEADLINES WITH NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW
YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS
TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
929 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST THURSDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND TEMPS BASED
ON CRNT CONDITIONS AND LATEST RADAR. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...CPV AND HIGHER TRRN OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT MTNS. THE
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER BL TO 850MB RH...WEAK LLVL CAA...AND
UPSLOPE FLW WL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE HIGHER
TRRN THRU 18Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION...AS DEPTH OF
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. OTHERWISE...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -10C
AND -12C MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...HAVE NOTED A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING PER LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THEREFORE HAVE MENTION CHC POPS ACRS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CPV THRU 16Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. HAVE SWITCHED
THE CXX RADAR INTO VCP 31 TO DETECT THE LIGHT PRECIP BETTER. REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE 20S TO NEAR 30F BY THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL
WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP
REST OF HEADLINES WITH NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW
YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS
TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
929 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST THURSDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND TEMPS BASED
ON CRNT CONDITIONS AND LATEST RADAR. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...CPV AND HIGHER TRRN OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT MTNS. THE
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER BL TO 850MB RH...WEAK LLVL CAA...AND
UPSLOPE FLW WL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE HIGHER
TRRN THRU 18Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION...AS DEPTH OF
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. OTHERWISE...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -10C
AND -12C MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...HAVE NOTED A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING PER LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THEREFORE HAVE MENTION CHC POPS ACRS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CPV THRU 16Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. HAVE SWITCHED
THE CXX RADAR INTO VCP 31 TO DETECT THE LIGHT PRECIP BETTER. REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE 20S TO NEAR 30F BY THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL
WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP
REST OF HEADLINES WITH NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW
YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS
TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
929 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST THURSDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND TEMPS BASED
ON CRNT CONDITIONS AND LATEST RADAR. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...CPV AND HIGHER TRRN OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT MTNS. THE
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER BL TO 850MB RH...WEAK LLVL CAA...AND
UPSLOPE FLW WL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE HIGHER
TRRN THRU 18Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION...AS DEPTH OF
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. OTHERWISE...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -10C
AND -12C MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...HAVE NOTED A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING PER LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THEREFORE HAVE MENTION CHC POPS ACRS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CPV THRU 16Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. HAVE SWITCHED
THE CXX RADAR INTO VCP 31 TO DETECT THE LIGHT PRECIP BETTER. REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE 20S TO NEAR 30F BY THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL
WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP
REST OF HEADLINES WITH NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW
YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS
TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EST THURSDAY...HAVE DROPPED REMAINDER OF
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR VERMONT WITH LATEST
UPDATE. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER PAST FEW HOURS...AND LATEST DATA INDICATES JUST SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF VERMONT. LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END
THIS MORNING. LOWERED POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL
WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP
REST OF HEADLINES WITH NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW
YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS
TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 271145
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.  DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW
MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY







000
FXUS61 KALY 271145
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.  DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW
MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY







000
FXUS61 KALY 271145
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.  DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW
MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY







000
FXUS61 KALY 271145
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.  DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW
MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 271135
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.  DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
ALBANY INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR THE MONTH. WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED...WE WILL WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO
SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...BGM/IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY










000
FXUS61 KALY 271135
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.  DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIK