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000
FXUS61 KALY 220824
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
IN ITS WAKE...A COLD AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAINFALL RETURNING BY MEMORIAL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS LINGERING. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY 6 AM AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME CLEARING WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE SHORT WAVE...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM
ALONG A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME.

SO THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS MORNING FOR THE
SOUTHEAST 3/4 OF THE AREA...WITH SKIES AVERAGING PARTLY SUNNY BY
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL MENTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS /SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/ DUE TO
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DESPITE COLD ADVECTION COMMENCING...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL HAVE
GOOD WARMING POTENTIAL DUE TO DEEP MIXING TO 700 MB DEVELOPING FROM
THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. HIGHS HERE WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S...WHILE COOLER MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED NORTH AND
WEST. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD AIR
MASS WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH /CENTRAL PA/ FOR WINDS TO EVENTUALLY
DECOUPLE ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT LOOK TO HAVE FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH EVEN A FEW MID 20S POSSIBLE IN THE
ADIRONDACKS. FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT...FROST IS
STILL LIKELY WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO THE 33-36 DEGREE RANGE.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. BELOW NORMAL READINGS ARE STILL
EXPECTED...BUT WITH PLEASANT 60S IN THE VALLEYS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO MORE OF
A PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD
AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S
IN MOST AREAS DUE TO A MODERATING AIR MASS IN WELL MIXED
ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL START AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY
OVER WESTERN AREAS... WITH SHOWERS SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. THE ONLY MODEL THAT STILL SHOWS THE
RAINFALL HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT IS THE CANADIAN. SO AS NOT
TO FLIP THE FORECAST TOO MUCH...HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY TO BETWEEN 30 AND 50 PERCENT BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH
THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
NORTHWEST. WITH THE WARM YET TO MOVE THROUGH...TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL STILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY SUMMER LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND REMAINING THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST
FOR MONDAY NIGHT... RANGING FROM AROUND 40 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...TO JUST UNDER 55 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND DEWPOINT
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE WELL INTO THE 50S.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MOIST
FLOW OF AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS IS THE
PERFECT SETUP FOR SUMMERLIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ALONG WITH A
NEARLY CONTINUOUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS EACH
DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. IT WILL BE
HUMID...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE
LOW OR MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/SAT.

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF WHERE VCSH
HAS BEEN FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR...BUT AGAIN...OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS VERY LOW DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ON
FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN THE MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT. THEN...AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KT...WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30 KT OR
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY TO WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
...WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH DRY AIR AND
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
MPH. SO THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY...BUT
WITH TREES BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN-UP PHASE...THE KEETCH-BYRAM
DROUGHT INDEX MUST BE CONSIDERED TO ASCERTAIN THE NEED FOR FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES. A THRESHOLD OF GREATER THAN 300 IS NEEDED...AND
CURRENTLY VALUES ARE IN THE 200-250 RANGE SO NO HEADLINES WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT TO AROUND 65 TO 85 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER TONIGHT DECREASING
TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10
TO 15 MPH...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. WETTING
RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL SOME TIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...BUT ANY
RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S.
DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066.
MA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 220824
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
IN ITS WAKE...A COLD AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAINFALL RETURNING BY MEMORIAL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS LINGERING. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY 6 AM AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME CLEARING WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE SHORT WAVE...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM
ALONG A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME.

SO THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS MORNING FOR THE
SOUTHEAST 3/4 OF THE AREA...WITH SKIES AVERAGING PARTLY SUNNY BY
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL MENTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS /SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/ DUE TO
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DESPITE COLD ADVECTION COMMENCING...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL HAVE
GOOD WARMING POTENTIAL DUE TO DEEP MIXING TO 700 MB DEVELOPING FROM
THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. HIGHS HERE WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S...WHILE COOLER MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED NORTH AND
WEST. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD AIR
MASS WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH /CENTRAL PA/ FOR WINDS TO EVENTUALLY
DECOUPLE ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT LOOK TO HAVE FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH EVEN A FEW MID 20S POSSIBLE IN THE
ADIRONDACKS. FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT...FROST IS
STILL LIKELY WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO THE 33-36 DEGREE RANGE.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. BELOW NORMAL READINGS ARE STILL
EXPECTED...BUT WITH PLEASANT 60S IN THE VALLEYS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO MORE OF
A PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD
AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S
IN MOST AREAS DUE TO A MODERATING AIR MASS IN WELL MIXED
ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL START AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY
OVER WESTERN AREAS... WITH SHOWERS SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. THE ONLY MODEL THAT STILL SHOWS THE
RAINFALL HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT IS THE CANADIAN. SO AS NOT
TO FLIP THE FORECAST TOO MUCH...HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY TO BETWEEN 30 AND 50 PERCENT BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH
THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
NORTHWEST. WITH THE WARM YET TO MOVE THROUGH...TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL STILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY SUMMER LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND REMAINING THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST
FOR MONDAY NIGHT... RANGING FROM AROUND 40 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...TO JUST UNDER 55 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND DEWPOINT
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE WELL INTO THE 50S.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MOIST
FLOW OF AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS IS THE
PERFECT SETUP FOR SUMMERLIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ALONG WITH A
NEARLY CONTINUOUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS EACH
DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. IT WILL BE
HUMID...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE
LOW OR MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/SAT.

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF WHERE VCSH
HAS BEEN FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR...BUT AGAIN...OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS VERY LOW DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ON
FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN THE MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT. THEN...AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KT...WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30 KT OR
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY TO WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
...WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH DRY AIR AND
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
MPH. SO THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY...BUT
WITH TREES BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN-UP PHASE...THE KEETCH-BYRAM
DROUGHT INDEX MUST BE CONSIDERED TO ASCERTAIN THE NEED FOR FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES. A THRESHOLD OF GREATER THAN 300 IS NEEDED...AND
CURRENTLY VALUES ARE IN THE 200-250 RANGE SO NO HEADLINES WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT TO AROUND 65 TO 85 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER TONIGHT DECREASING
TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10
TO 15 MPH...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. WETTING
RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL SOME TIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...BUT ANY
RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S.
DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066.
MA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 220824
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
IN ITS WAKE...A COLD AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAINFALL RETURNING BY MEMORIAL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS LINGERING. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY 6 AM AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME CLEARING WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE SHORT WAVE...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM
ALONG A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME.

SO THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS MORNING FOR THE
SOUTHEAST 3/4 OF THE AREA...WITH SKIES AVERAGING PARTLY SUNNY BY
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL MENTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS /SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/ DUE TO
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DESPITE COLD ADVECTION COMMENCING...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL HAVE
GOOD WARMING POTENTIAL DUE TO DEEP MIXING TO 700 MB DEVELOPING FROM
THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. HIGHS HERE WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S...WHILE COOLER MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED NORTH AND
WEST. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD AIR
MASS WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH /CENTRAL PA/ FOR WINDS TO EVENTUALLY
DECOUPLE ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT LOOK TO HAVE FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH EVEN A FEW MID 20S POSSIBLE IN THE
ADIRONDACKS. FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT...FROST IS
STILL LIKELY WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO THE 33-36 DEGREE RANGE.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. BELOW NORMAL READINGS ARE STILL
EXPECTED...BUT WITH PLEASANT 60S IN THE VALLEYS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO MORE OF
A PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD
AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S
IN MOST AREAS DUE TO A MODERATING AIR MASS IN WELL MIXED
ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL START AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY
OVER WESTERN AREAS... WITH SHOWERS SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. THE ONLY MODEL THAT STILL SHOWS THE
RAINFALL HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT IS THE CANADIAN. SO AS NOT
TO FLIP THE FORECAST TOO MUCH...HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY TO BETWEEN 30 AND 50 PERCENT BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH
THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
NORTHWEST. WITH THE WARM YET TO MOVE THROUGH...TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL STILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY SUMMER LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND REMAINING THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST
FOR MONDAY NIGHT... RANGING FROM AROUND 40 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...TO JUST UNDER 55 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND DEWPOINT
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE WELL INTO THE 50S.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MOIST
FLOW OF AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS IS THE
PERFECT SETUP FOR SUMMERLIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ALONG WITH A
NEARLY CONTINUOUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS EACH
DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. IT WILL BE
HUMID...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE
LOW OR MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/SAT.

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF WHERE VCSH
HAS BEEN FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR...BUT AGAIN...OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS VERY LOW DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ON
FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN THE MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT. THEN...AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KT...WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30 KT OR
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY TO WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
...WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH DRY AIR AND
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
MPH. SO THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY...BUT
WITH TREES BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN-UP PHASE...THE KEETCH-BYRAM
DROUGHT INDEX MUST BE CONSIDERED TO ASCERTAIN THE NEED FOR FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES. A THRESHOLD OF GREATER THAN 300 IS NEEDED...AND
CURRENTLY VALUES ARE IN THE 200-250 RANGE SO NO HEADLINES WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT TO AROUND 65 TO 85 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER TONIGHT DECREASING
TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10
TO 15 MPH...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. WETTING
RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL SOME TIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...BUT ANY
RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S.
DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066.
MA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220802
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND
HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE
THOUGH GOING INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
HIGHS BUMPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE BORDER, SO I`M EXPECTING NOTHING MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TRENDING
NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-24KTS AFTER 12Z,
ABATING LATE. COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE
10-18Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220802
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND
HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE
THOUGH GOING INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
HIGHS BUMPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE BORDER, SO I`M EXPECTING NOTHING MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW
TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL
GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE
GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S
BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN
THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID-
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT
THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A
WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL
PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH
90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TRENDING
NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-24KTS AFTER 12Z,
ABATING LATE. COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE
10-18Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG



000
FXUS61 KALY 220545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL FINALLY RETURNING DURING
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 104 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER CLEARING HAS ALREADY PUSHED
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NY AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO MIGHT REACH THE GROUND FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AT BEST DUE TO
DRY LOW LEVELS AS NOTED IN 00Z ALBANY NY SOUNDING. BASED OFF THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
WHERE CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S.

MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. ALTHOUGH
TEMPS MAY APPROACH THE MID 30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ESP IN THE
MORNING HOURS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH ITS PASSAGE...MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY COMPLETELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...W-NW WILL BECOME GUSTY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS
TO AROUND 725-750 HPA ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM FOR THE AFTN
HOURS. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME
PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
DESPITE THE COLD AIR WORKING IN...GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WINDS LOOKS TO DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS DROP
TO -4 TO -6 DEGREES C...WHICH ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN
GREENS...AND CATSKILLS...AS TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTEREST. EVEN OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WATCH
AREAS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY EVEN
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR SAT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IN PLACE. EVEN WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. MINS ON SAT NIGHT WON/T BE QUITE AS
COLD AS FRI NIGHT...BUT STILL FAIRLY CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE...AND RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW
LOCALITIES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS ALL ELUDE TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF MORE SUMMERY AIR
TO WORK INTO OUR REGION...SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG) SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN FACT...THIS BERMUDA HIGH MIGHT STAY WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM IN EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DO A DIURNAL TREND...SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...30-40.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREST WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/SAT.

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF WHERE VCSH
HAS BEEN FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR...BUT AGAIN...OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS VERY LOW DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ON
FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN THE MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT. THEN...AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KT...WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30 KT OR
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY AFTN. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY LATELY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRI AFTN. WITH THE TREES
BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN UP PHASE...ANOTHER COMPONENT TO
EXAMINE IS THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX...WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
IN THE 200-250 RANGE. USUALLY...A VALUE OF 300 OR GREATER IS
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...AND ALONG WITH COORDINATION
WITH NYS OFFICIALS...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL BE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON BOTH SAT AND SUN AFTNS AS
WELL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER
LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERING A MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-058-063-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 220545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL FINALLY RETURNING DURING
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 104 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER CLEARING HAS ALREADY PUSHED
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NY AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO MIGHT REACH THE GROUND FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AT BEST DUE TO
DRY LOW LEVELS AS NOTED IN 00Z ALBANY NY SOUNDING. BASED OFF THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
WHERE CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S.

MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. ALTHOUGH
TEMPS MAY APPROACH THE MID 30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ESP IN THE
MORNING HOURS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH ITS PASSAGE...MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY COMPLETELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...W-NW WILL BECOME GUSTY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS
TO AROUND 725-750 HPA ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM FOR THE AFTN
HOURS. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME
PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
DESPITE THE COLD AIR WORKING IN...GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WINDS LOOKS TO DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS DROP
TO -4 TO -6 DEGREES C...WHICH ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN
GREENS...AND CATSKILLS...AS TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTEREST. EVEN OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WATCH
AREAS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY EVEN
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR SAT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IN PLACE. EVEN WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. MINS ON SAT NIGHT WON/T BE QUITE AS
COLD AS FRI NIGHT...BUT STILL FAIRLY CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE...AND RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW
LOCALITIES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS ALL ELUDE TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF MORE SUMMERY AIR
TO WORK INTO OUR REGION...SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG) SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN FACT...THIS BERMUDA HIGH MIGHT STAY WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM IN EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DO A DIURNAL TREND...SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...30-40.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREST WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/SAT.

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF WHERE VCSH
HAS BEEN FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR...BUT AGAIN...OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS VERY LOW DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ON
FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN THE MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT. THEN...AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KT...WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30 KT OR
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY AFTN. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY LATELY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRI AFTN. WITH THE TREES
BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN UP PHASE...ANOTHER COMPONENT TO
EXAMINE IS THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX...WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
IN THE 200-250 RANGE. USUALLY...A VALUE OF 300 OR GREATER IS
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...AND ALONG WITH COORDINATION
WITH NYS OFFICIALS...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL BE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON BOTH SAT AND SUN AFTNS AS
WELL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER
LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERING A MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-058-063-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 220545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL FINALLY RETURNING DURING
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 104 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER CLEARING HAS ALREADY PUSHED
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NY AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO MIGHT REACH THE GROUND FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AT BEST DUE TO
DRY LOW LEVELS AS NOTED IN 00Z ALBANY NY SOUNDING. BASED OFF THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
WHERE CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S.

MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. ALTHOUGH
TEMPS MAY APPROACH THE MID 30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ESP IN THE
MORNING HOURS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH ITS PASSAGE...MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY COMPLETELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...W-NW WILL BECOME GUSTY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS
TO AROUND 725-750 HPA ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM FOR THE AFTN
HOURS. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME
PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
DESPITE THE COLD AIR WORKING IN...GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WINDS LOOKS TO DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS DROP
TO -4 TO -6 DEGREES C...WHICH ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN
GREENS...AND CATSKILLS...AS TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTEREST. EVEN OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WATCH
AREAS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY EVEN
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR SAT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IN PLACE. EVEN WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. MINS ON SAT NIGHT WON/T BE QUITE AS
COLD AS FRI NIGHT...BUT STILL FAIRLY CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE...AND RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW
LOCALITIES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS ALL ELUDE TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF MORE SUMMERY AIR
TO WORK INTO OUR REGION...SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG) SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN FACT...THIS BERMUDA HIGH MIGHT STAY WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM IN EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DO A DIURNAL TREND...SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...30-40.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREST WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/SAT.

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF WHERE VCSH
HAS BEEN FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR...BUT AGAIN...OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS VERY LOW DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ON
FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN THE MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT. THEN...AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KT...WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30 KT OR
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY AFTN. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY LATELY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRI AFTN. WITH THE TREES
BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN UP PHASE...ANOTHER COMPONENT TO
EXAMINE IS THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX...WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
IN THE 200-250 RANGE. USUALLY...A VALUE OF 300 OR GREATER IS
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...AND ALONG WITH COORDINATION
WITH NYS OFFICIALS...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL BE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON BOTH SAT AND SUN AFTNS AS
WELL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER
LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERING A MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-058-063-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 220545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL FINALLY RETURNING DURING
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 104 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER CLEARING HAS ALREADY PUSHED
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NY AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO MIGHT REACH THE GROUND FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AT BEST DUE TO
DRY LOW LEVELS AS NOTED IN 00Z ALBANY NY SOUNDING. BASED OFF THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
WHERE CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S.

MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. ALTHOUGH
TEMPS MAY APPROACH THE MID 30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ESP IN THE
MORNING HOURS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH ITS PASSAGE...MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY COMPLETELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...W-NW WILL BECOME GUSTY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS
TO AROUND 725-750 HPA ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM FOR THE AFTN
HOURS. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME
PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
DESPITE THE COLD AIR WORKING IN...GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WINDS LOOKS TO DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS DROP
TO -4 TO -6 DEGREES C...WHICH ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN
GREENS...AND CATSKILLS...AS TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTEREST. EVEN OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WATCH
AREAS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY EVEN
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR SAT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IN PLACE. EVEN WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. MINS ON SAT NIGHT WON/T BE QUITE AS
COLD AS FRI NIGHT...BUT STILL FAIRLY CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE...AND RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW
LOCALITIES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS ALL ELUDE TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF MORE SUMMERY AIR
TO WORK INTO OUR REGION...SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG) SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN FACT...THIS BERMUDA HIGH MIGHT STAY WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM IN EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DO A DIURNAL TREND...SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...30-40.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREST WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/SAT.

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF WHERE VCSH
HAS BEEN FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR...BUT AGAIN...OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS VERY LOW DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ON
FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN THE MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT. THEN...AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KT...WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30 KT OR
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY AFTN. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY LATELY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRI AFTN. WITH THE TREES
BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN UP PHASE...ANOTHER COMPONENT TO
EXAMINE IS THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX...WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
IN THE 200-250 RANGE. USUALLY...A VALUE OF 300 OR GREATER IS
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...AND ALONG WITH COORDINATION
WITH NYS OFFICIALS...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL BE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON BOTH SAT AND SUN AFTNS AS
WELL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER
LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERING A MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-058-063-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 220545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL FINALLY RETURNING DURING
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 104 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER CLEARING HAS ALREADY PUSHED
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NY AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO MIGHT REACH THE GROUND FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AT BEST DUE TO
DRY LOW LEVELS AS NOTED IN 00Z ALBANY NY SOUNDING. BASED OFF THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
WHERE CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S.

MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. ALTHOUGH
TEMPS MAY APPROACH THE MID 30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ESP IN THE
MORNING HOURS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH ITS PASSAGE...MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY COMPLETELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...W-NW WILL BECOME GUSTY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS
TO AROUND 725-750 HPA ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM FOR THE AFTN
HOURS. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME
PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
DESPITE THE COLD AIR WORKING IN...GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WINDS LOOKS TO DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS DROP
TO -4 TO -6 DEGREES C...WHICH ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN
GREENS...AND CATSKILLS...AS TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTEREST. EVEN OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WATCH
AREAS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY EVEN
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR SAT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IN PLACE. EVEN WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. MINS ON SAT NIGHT WON/T BE QUITE AS
COLD AS FRI NIGHT...BUT STILL FAIRLY CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE...AND RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW
LOCALITIES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS ALL ELUDE TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF MORE SUMMERY AIR
TO WORK INTO OUR REGION...SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG) SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN FACT...THIS BERMUDA HIGH MIGHT STAY WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM IN EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DO A DIURNAL TREND...SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...30-40.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREST WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/SAT.

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF WHERE VCSH
HAS BEEN FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR...BUT AGAIN...OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS VERY LOW DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ON
FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN THE MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT. THEN...AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KT...WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30 KT OR
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY AFTN. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY LATELY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRI AFTN. WITH THE TREES
BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN UP PHASE...ANOTHER COMPONENT TO
EXAMINE IS THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX...WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
IN THE 200-250 RANGE. USUALLY...A VALUE OF 300 OR GREATER IS
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...AND ALONG WITH COORDINATION
WITH NYS OFFICIALS...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL BE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON BOTH SAT AND SUN AFTNS AS
WELL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER
LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERING A MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-058-063-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 220545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL FINALLY RETURNING DURING
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 104 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER CLEARING HAS ALREADY PUSHED
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NY AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO MIGHT REACH THE GROUND FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AT BEST DUE TO
DRY LOW LEVELS AS NOTED IN 00Z ALBANY NY SOUNDING. BASED OFF THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
WHERE CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S.

MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. ALTHOUGH
TEMPS MAY APPROACH THE MID 30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ESP IN THE
MORNING HOURS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH ITS PASSAGE...MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY COMPLETELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...W-NW WILL BECOME GUSTY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS
TO AROUND 725-750 HPA ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM FOR THE AFTN
HOURS. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME
PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
DESPITE THE COLD AIR WORKING IN...GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WINDS LOOKS TO DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS DROP
TO -4 TO -6 DEGREES C...WHICH ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN
GREENS...AND CATSKILLS...AS TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTEREST. EVEN OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WATCH
AREAS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY EVEN
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR SAT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IN PLACE. EVEN WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. MINS ON SAT NIGHT WON/T BE QUITE AS
COLD AS FRI NIGHT...BUT STILL FAIRLY CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE...AND RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW
LOCALITIES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS ALL ELUDE TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF MORE SUMMERY AIR
TO WORK INTO OUR REGION...SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG) SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN FACT...THIS BERMUDA HIGH MIGHT STAY WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM IN EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DO A DIURNAL TREND...SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...30-40.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREST WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/SAT.

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF WHERE VCSH
HAS BEEN FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR...BUT AGAIN...OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS VERY LOW DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ON
FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN THE MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT. THEN...AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KT...WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30 KT OR
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY AFTN. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY LATELY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRI AFTN. WITH THE TREES
BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN UP PHASE...ANOTHER COMPONENT TO
EXAMINE IS THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX...WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
IN THE 200-250 RANGE. USUALLY...A VALUE OF 300 OR GREATER IS
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...AND ALONG WITH COORDINATION
WITH NYS OFFICIALS...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL BE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON BOTH SAT AND SUN AFTNS AS
WELL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER
LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERING A MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-058-063-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 220545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL FINALLY RETURNING DURING
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 104 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER CLEARING HAS ALREADY PUSHED
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NY AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO MIGHT REACH THE GROUND FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AT BEST DUE TO
DRY LOW LEVELS AS NOTED IN 00Z ALBANY NY SOUNDING. BASED OFF THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
WHERE CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S.

MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. ALTHOUGH
TEMPS MAY APPROACH THE MID 30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ESP IN THE
MORNING HOURS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH ITS PASSAGE...MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY COMPLETELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...W-NW WILL BECOME GUSTY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS
TO AROUND 725-750 HPA ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM FOR THE AFTN
HOURS. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME
PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
DESPITE THE COLD AIR WORKING IN...GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WINDS LOOKS TO DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS DROP
TO -4 TO -6 DEGREES C...WHICH ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN
GREENS...AND CATSKILLS...AS TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTEREST. EVEN OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WATCH
AREAS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY EVEN
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR SAT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IN PLACE. EVEN WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. MINS ON SAT NIGHT WON/T BE QUITE AS
COLD AS FRI NIGHT...BUT STILL FAIRLY CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE...AND RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW
LOCALITIES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS ALL ELUDE TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF MORE SUMMERY AIR
TO WORK INTO OUR REGION...SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG) SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN FACT...THIS BERMUDA HIGH MIGHT STAY WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM IN EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DO A DIURNAL TREND...SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...30-40.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREST WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/SAT.

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF WHERE VCSH
HAS BEEN FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR...BUT AGAIN...OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS VERY LOW DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ON
FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN THE MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT. THEN...AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KT...WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30 KT OR
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY AFTN. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY LATELY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRI AFTN. WITH THE TREES
BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN UP PHASE...ANOTHER COMPONENT TO
EXAMINE IS THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX...WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
IN THE 200-250 RANGE. USUALLY...A VALUE OF 300 OR GREATER IS
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...AND ALONG WITH COORDINATION
WITH NYS OFFICIALS...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL BE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON BOTH SAT AND SUN AFTNS AS
WELL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER
LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERING A MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-058-063-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 220545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL FINALLY RETURNING DURING
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 104 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER CLEARING HAS ALREADY PUSHED
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NY AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO MIGHT REACH THE GROUND FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AT BEST DUE TO
DRY LOW LEVELS AS NOTED IN 00Z ALBANY NY SOUNDING. BASED OFF THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
WHERE CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S.

MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. ALTHOUGH
TEMPS MAY APPROACH THE MID 30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ESP IN THE
MORNING HOURS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH ITS PASSAGE...MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY COMPLETELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...W-NW WILL BECOME GUSTY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS
TO AROUND 725-750 HPA ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM FOR THE AFTN
HOURS. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME
PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
DESPITE THE COLD AIR WORKING IN...GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WINDS LOOKS TO DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS DROP
TO -4 TO -6 DEGREES C...WHICH ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN
GREENS...AND CATSKILLS...AS TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTEREST. EVEN OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WATCH
AREAS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY EVEN
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR SAT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IN PLACE. EVEN WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. MINS ON SAT NIGHT WON/T BE QUITE AS
COLD AS FRI NIGHT...BUT STILL FAIRLY CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE...AND RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW
LOCALITIES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS ALL ELUDE TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF MORE SUMMERY AIR
TO WORK INTO OUR REGION...SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG) SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN FACT...THIS BERMUDA HIGH MIGHT STAY WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM IN EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DO A DIURNAL TREND...SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...30-40.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREST WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/SAT.

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF WHERE VCSH
HAS BEEN FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR...BUT AGAIN...OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS VERY LOW DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ON
FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN THE MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT. THEN...AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KT...WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30 KT OR
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY AFTN. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY LATELY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRI AFTN. WITH THE TREES
BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN UP PHASE...ANOTHER COMPONENT TO
EXAMINE IS THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX...WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
IN THE 200-250 RANGE. USUALLY...A VALUE OF 300 OR GREATER IS
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...AND ALONG WITH COORDINATION
WITH NYS OFFICIALS...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL BE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON BOTH SAT AND SUN AFTNS AS
WELL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER
LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERING A MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-058-063-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220535
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND
LOW TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TRENDING
NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-24KTS AFTER 12Z,
ABATING LATE. COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE
10-18Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220535
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND
LOW TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TRENDING
NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-24KTS AFTER 12Z,
ABATING LATE. COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE
10-18Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220535
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND
LOW TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TRENDING
NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-24KTS AFTER 12Z,
ABATING LATE. COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE
10-18Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220535
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND
LOW TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TRENDING
NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-24KTS AFTER 12Z,
ABATING LATE. COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE
10-18Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220535
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND
LOW TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TRENDING
NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-24KTS AFTER 12Z,
ABATING LATE. COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE
10-18Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220535
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND
LOW TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TRENDING
NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-24KTS AFTER 12Z,
ABATING LATE. COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE
10-18Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220535
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND
LOW TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TRENDING
NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-24KTS AFTER 12Z,
ABATING LATE. COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE
10-18Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220535
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND
LOW TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE
OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL
050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TRENDING
NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-24KTS AFTER 12Z,
ABATING LATE. COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE
10-18Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KALY 220504
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL FINALLY RETURNING DURING
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 104 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER CLEARING HAS ALREADY PUSHED
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NY AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO MIGHT REACH THE GROUND FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AT BEST DUE TO
DRY LOW LEVELS AS NOTED IN 00Z ALBANY NY SOUNDING. BASED OFF THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
WHERE CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S.

MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. ALTHOUGH
TEMPS MAY APPROACH THE MID 30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ESP IN THE
MORNING HOURS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH ITS PASSAGE...MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY COMPLETELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...W-NW WILL BECOME GUSTY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS
TO AROUND 725-750 HPA ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM FOR THE AFTN
HOURS. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME
PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
DESPITE THE COLD AIR WORKING IN...GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WINDS LOOKS TO DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS DROP
TO -4 TO -6 DEGREES C...WHICH ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN
GREENS...AND CATSKILLS...AS TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTEREST. EVEN OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WATCH
AREAS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY EVEN
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR SAT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IN PLACE. EVEN WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. MINS ON SAT NIGHT WON/T BE QUITE AS
COLD AS FRI NIGHT...BUT STILL FAIRLY CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE...AND RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW
LOCALITIES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS ALL ELUDE TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF MORE SUMMERY AIR
TO WORK INTO OUR REGION...SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG) SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN FACT...THIS BERMUDA HIGH MIGHT STAY WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM IN EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DO A DIURNAL TREND...SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...30-40.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREST WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/SAT.

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OCCURS AT KPOU.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR...BUT AGAIN...OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS VERY LOW DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AT LESS
THAN 8 KT. ON FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN
THE MORNING AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT.
THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KT...WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30
KT OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY AFTN. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY LATELY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRI AFTN. WITH THE TREES
BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN UP PHASE...ANOTHER COMPONENT TO
EXAMINE IS THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX...WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
IN THE 200-250 RANGE. USUALLY...A VALUE OF 300 OR GREATER IS
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...AND ALONG WITH COORDINATION
WITH NYS OFFICIALS...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL BE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON BOTH SAT AND SUN AFTNS AS
WELL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER
LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERING A MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-058-063-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 220504
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL FINALLY RETURNING DURING
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 104 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER CLEARING HAS ALREADY PUSHED
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NY AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO MIGHT REACH THE GROUND FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AT BEST DUE TO
DRY LOW LEVELS AS NOTED IN 00Z ALBANY NY SOUNDING. BASED OFF THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
WHERE CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S.

MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. ALTHOUGH
TEMPS MAY APPROACH THE MID 30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ESP IN THE
MORNING HOURS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH ITS PASSAGE...MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY COMPLETELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...W-NW WILL BECOME GUSTY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS
TO AROUND 725-750 HPA ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM FOR THE AFTN
HOURS. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME
PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
DESPITE THE COLD AIR WORKING IN...GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WINDS LOOKS TO DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS DROP
TO -4 TO -6 DEGREES C...WHICH ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN
GREENS...AND CATSKILLS...AS TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTEREST. EVEN OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WATCH
AREAS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY EVEN
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR SAT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IN PLACE. EVEN WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. MINS ON SAT NIGHT WON/T BE QUITE AS
COLD AS FRI NIGHT...BUT STILL FAIRLY CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE...AND RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW
LOCALITIES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS ALL ELUDE TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF MORE SUMMERY AIR
TO WORK INTO OUR REGION...SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG) SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN FACT...THIS BERMUDA HIGH MIGHT STAY WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM IN EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DO A DIURNAL TREND...SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...30-40.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREST WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/SAT.

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OCCURS AT KPOU.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR...BUT AGAIN...OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS VERY LOW DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AT LESS
THAN 8 KT. ON FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN
THE MORNING AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT.
THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KT...WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30
KT OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY AFTN. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY LATELY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRI AFTN. WITH THE TREES
BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN UP PHASE...ANOTHER COMPONENT TO
EXAMINE IS THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX...WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
IN THE 200-250 RANGE. USUALLY...A VALUE OF 300 OR GREATER IS
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...AND ALONG WITH COORDINATION
WITH NYS OFFICIALS...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL BE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON BOTH SAT AND SUN AFTNS AS
WELL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER
LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERING A MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-058-063-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220235
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1035 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND
LOW TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 220235
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1035 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND
LOW TO MID 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV




000
FXUS61 KALY 220229
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1029 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL FINALLY RETURNING DURING
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED.
SO...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST
AND PASS SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...A SPRINKLE OR TWO
MIGHT REACH THE GROUND FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AT BEST DUE TO DRY
ATMOSPHERE AS SUPPORTED IN OUR 00Z 22 MAY ALBANY NY SOUNDING.
BASED OFF THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...THESE EXPECTED
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THEM FROM GETTING OVERLY COLD. MINS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY
APPROACH THE MID 30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...A
DEVELOPING WIND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP PREVENT ANY FROST FROM OCCURRING IN OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ESP IN THE
MORNING HOURS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH ITS PASSAGE...MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY COMPLETELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...W-NW WILL BECOME GUSTY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS
TO AROUND 725-750 HPA ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM FOR THE AFTN
HOURS. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME
PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
DESPITE THE COLD AIR WORKING IN...GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WINDS LOOKS TO DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS DROP
TO -4 TO -6 DEGREES C...WHICH ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN
GREENS...AND CATSKILLS...AS TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTEREST. EVEN OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WATCH
AREAS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY EVEN
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR SAT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IN PLACE. EVEN WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. MINS ON SAT NIGHT WON/T BE QUITE AS
COLD AS FRI NIGHT...BUT STILL FAIRLY CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE...AND RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW
LOCALITIES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS ALL ELUDE TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF MORE SUMMERY AIR
TO WORK INTO OUR REGION...SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG) SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN FACT...THIS BERMUDA HIGH MIGHT STAY WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM IN EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DO A DIURNAL TREND...SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...30-40.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREST WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/SAT.

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OCCURS AT KPOU.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR...BUT AGAIN...OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS VERY LOW DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AT LESS
THAN 8 KT. ON FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN
THE MORNING AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT.
THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KT...WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30
KT OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY AFTN. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY LATELY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRI AFTN. WITH THE TREES
BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN UP PHASE...ANOTHER COMPONENT TO
EXAMINE IS THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX...WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
IN THE 200-250 RANGE. USUALLY...A VALUE OF 300 OR GREATER IS
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...AND ALONG WITH COORDINATION
WITH NYS OFFICIALS...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL BE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON BOTH SAT AND SUN AFTNS AS
WELL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER
LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERING A MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-058-063-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/LFM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 220229
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1029 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL FINALLY RETURNING DURING
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED.
SO...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST
AND PASS SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...A SPRINKLE OR TWO
MIGHT REACH THE GROUND FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AT BEST DUE TO DRY
ATMOSPHERE AS SUPPORTED IN OUR 00Z 22 MAY ALBANY NY SOUNDING.
BASED OFF THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...THESE EXPECTED
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THEM FROM GETTING OVERLY COLD. MINS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY
APPROACH THE MID 30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...A
DEVELOPING WIND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP PREVENT ANY FROST FROM OCCURRING IN OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ESP IN THE
MORNING HOURS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH ITS PASSAGE...MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY COMPLETELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...W-NW WILL BECOME GUSTY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS
TO AROUND 725-750 HPA ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM FOR THE AFTN
HOURS. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME
PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
DESPITE THE COLD AIR WORKING IN...GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WINDS LOOKS TO DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS DROP
TO -4 TO -6 DEGREES C...WHICH ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN
GREENS...AND CATSKILLS...AS TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTEREST. EVEN OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WATCH
AREAS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY EVEN
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR SAT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IN PLACE. EVEN WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. MINS ON SAT NIGHT WON/T BE QUITE AS
COLD AS FRI NIGHT...BUT STILL FAIRLY CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE...AND RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW
LOCALITIES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS ALL ELUDE TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF MORE SUMMERY AIR
TO WORK INTO OUR REGION...SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG) SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN FACT...THIS BERMUDA HIGH MIGHT STAY WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM IN EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DO A DIURNAL TREND...SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...30-40.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREST WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/SAT.

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OCCURS AT KPOU.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR...BUT AGAIN...OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS VERY LOW DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AT LESS
THAN 8 KT. ON FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN
THE MORNING AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT.
THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KT...WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30
KT OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY AFTN. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY LATELY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRI AFTN. WITH THE TREES
BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN UP PHASE...ANOTHER COMPONENT TO
EXAMINE IS THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX...WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
IN THE 200-250 RANGE. USUALLY...A VALUE OF 300 OR GREATER IS
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...AND ALONG WITH COORDINATION
WITH NYS OFFICIALS...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL BE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON BOTH SAT AND SUN AFTNS AS
WELL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER
LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERING A MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-058-063-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/LFM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 220147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
947 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL FINALLY RETURNING DURING
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED.
SO...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST
AND PASS SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...A SPRINKLE OR TWO
MIGHT REACH THE GROUND...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AT
BEST DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERE AS SUPPORTED IN OUR 00Z 22 MAY ALBANY
NY SOUNDING. BASED OFF THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...LOW
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BY A DEGREE OR TWO...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY WHERE CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...THESE EXPECTED
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THEM FROM GETTING OVERLY COLD. MINS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY
APPROACH THE MID 30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...A
DEVELOPING WIND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP PREVENT ANY FROST FROM OCCURRING IN OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ESP IN THE
MORNING HOURS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH ITS PASSAGE...MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY COMPLETELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...W-NW WILL BECOME GUSTY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS
TO AROUND 725-750 HPA ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM FOR THE AFTN
HOURS. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME
PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
DESPITE THE COLD AIR WORKING IN...GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WINDS LOOKS TO DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS DROP
TO -4 TO -6 DEGREES C...WHICH ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN
GREENS...AND CATSKILLS...AS TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTEREST. EVEN OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WATCH
AREAS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY EVEN
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR SAT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IN PLACE. EVEN WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. MINS ON SAT NIGHT WON/T BE QUITE AS
COLD AS FRI NIGHT...BUT STILL FAIRLY CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE...AND RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW
LOCALITIES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS ALL ELUDE TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF MORE SUMMERY AIR
TO WORK INTO OUR REGION...SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG) SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN FACT...THIS BERMUDA HIGH MIGHT STAY WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM IN EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DO A DIURNAL TREND...SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...30-40.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREST WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/SAT.

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OCCURS AT KPOU.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR...BUT AGAIN...OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS VERY LOW DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AT LESS
THAN 8 KT. ON FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN
THE MORNING AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT.
THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KT...WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30
KT OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY AFTN. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY LATELY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRI AFTN. WITH THE TREES
BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN UP PHASE...ANOTHER COMPONENT TO
EXAMINE IS THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX...WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
IN THE 200-250 RANGE. USUALLY...A VALUE OF 300 OR GREATER IS
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...AND ALONG WITH COORDINATION
WITH NYS OFFICIALS...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL BE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON BOTH SAT AND SUN AFTNS AS
WELL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER
LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERING A MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-058-063-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/LFM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 220147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
947 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL FINALLY RETURNING DURING
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED.
SO...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST
AND PASS SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...A SPRINKLE OR TWO
MIGHT REACH THE GROUND...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AT
BEST DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERE AS SUPPORTED IN OUR 00Z 22 MAY ALBANY
NY SOUNDING. BASED OFF THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...LOW
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BY A DEGREE OR TWO...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY WHERE CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...THESE EXPECTED
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THEM FROM GETTING OVERLY COLD. MINS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY
APPROACH THE MID 30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...A
DEVELOPING WIND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP PREVENT ANY FROST FROM OCCURRING IN OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ESP IN THE
MORNING HOURS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH ITS PASSAGE...MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY COMPLETELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...W-NW WILL BECOME GUSTY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS
TO AROUND 725-750 HPA ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM FOR THE AFTN
HOURS. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME
PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
DESPITE THE COLD AIR WORKING IN...GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WINDS LOOKS TO DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS DROP
TO -4 TO -6 DEGREES C...WHICH ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN
GREENS...AND CATSKILLS...AS TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTEREST. EVEN OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WATCH
AREAS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY EVEN
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR SAT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IN PLACE. EVEN WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. MINS ON SAT NIGHT WON/T BE QUITE AS
COLD AS FRI NIGHT...BUT STILL FAIRLY CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE...AND RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW
LOCALITIES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS ALL ELUDE TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF MORE SUMMERY AIR
TO WORK INTO OUR REGION...SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG) SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN FACT...THIS BERMUDA HIGH MIGHT STAY WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM IN EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DO A DIURNAL TREND...SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...30-40.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREST WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/SAT.

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OCCURS AT KPOU.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR...BUT AGAIN...OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS VERY LOW DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AT LESS
THAN 8 KT. ON FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN
THE MORNING AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT.
THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KT...WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30
KT OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY AFTN. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY LATELY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRI AFTN. WITH THE TREES
BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN UP PHASE...ANOTHER COMPONENT TO
EXAMINE IS THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX...WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
IN THE 200-250 RANGE. USUALLY...A VALUE OF 300 OR GREATER IS
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...AND ALONG WITH COORDINATION
WITH NYS OFFICIALS...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL BE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON BOTH SAT AND SUN AFTNS AS
WELL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER
LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERING A MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-058-063-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/LFM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 220147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
947 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL FINALLY RETURNING DURING
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED.
SO...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST
AND PASS SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...A SPRINKLE OR TWO
MIGHT REACH THE GROUND...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AT
BEST DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERE AS SUPPORTED IN OUR 00Z 22 MAY ALBANY
NY SOUNDING. BASED OFF THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...LOW
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BY A DEGREE OR TWO...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY WHERE CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...THESE EXPECTED
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THEM FROM GETTING OVERLY COLD. MINS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY
APPROACH THE MID 30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...A
DEVELOPING WIND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP PREVENT ANY FROST FROM OCCURRING IN OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ESP IN THE
MORNING HOURS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH ITS PASSAGE...MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY COMPLETELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...W-NW WILL BECOME GUSTY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS
TO AROUND 725-750 HPA ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM FOR THE AFTN
HOURS. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME
PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
DESPITE THE COLD AIR WORKING IN...GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WINDS LOOKS TO DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS DROP
TO -4 TO -6 DEGREES C...WHICH ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN
GREENS...AND CATSKILLS...AS TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTEREST. EVEN OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WATCH
AREAS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY EVEN
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR SAT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IN PLACE. EVEN WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. MINS ON SAT NIGHT WON/T BE QUITE AS
COLD AS FRI NIGHT...BUT STILL FAIRLY CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE...AND RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW
LOCALITIES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS ALL ELUDE TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF MORE SUMMERY AIR
TO WORK INTO OUR REGION...SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG) SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN FACT...THIS BERMUDA HIGH MIGHT STAY WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM IN EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DO A DIURNAL TREND...SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...30-40.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREST WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/SAT.

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OCCURS AT KPOU.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR...BUT AGAIN...OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS VERY LOW DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AT LESS
THAN 8 KT. ON FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN
THE MORNING AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT.
THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KT...WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30
KT OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY AFTN. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY LATELY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRI AFTN. WITH THE TREES
BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN UP PHASE...ANOTHER COMPONENT TO
EXAMINE IS THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX...WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
IN THE 200-250 RANGE. USUALLY...A VALUE OF 300 OR GREATER IS
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...AND ALONG WITH COORDINATION
WITH NYS OFFICIALS...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL BE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON BOTH SAT AND SUN AFTNS AS
WELL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER
LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERING A MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-058-063-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/LFM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 220147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
947 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL FINALLY RETURNING DURING
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED.
SO...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST
AND PASS SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...A SPRINKLE OR TWO
MIGHT REACH THE GROUND...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AT
BEST DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERE AS SUPPORTED IN OUR 00Z 22 MAY ALBANY
NY SOUNDING. BASED OFF THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...LOW
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BY A DEGREE OR TWO...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY WHERE CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...THESE EXPECTED
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THEM FROM GETTING OVERLY COLD. MINS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY
APPROACH THE MID 30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...A
DEVELOPING WIND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP PREVENT ANY FROST FROM OCCURRING IN OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ESP IN THE
MORNING HOURS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH ITS PASSAGE...MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY COMPLETELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...W-NW WILL BECOME GUSTY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS
TO AROUND 725-750 HPA ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM FOR THE AFTN
HOURS. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME
PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
DESPITE THE COLD AIR WORKING IN...GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WINDS LOOKS TO DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS DROP
TO -4 TO -6 DEGREES C...WHICH ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN
GREENS...AND CATSKILLS...AS TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTEREST. EVEN OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WATCH
AREAS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY EVEN
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR SAT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IN PLACE. EVEN WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. MINS ON SAT NIGHT WON/T BE QUITE AS
COLD AS FRI NIGHT...BUT STILL FAIRLY CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE...AND RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW
LOCALITIES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS ALL ELUDE TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF MORE SUMMERY AIR
TO WORK INTO OUR REGION...SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG) SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN FACT...THIS BERMUDA HIGH MIGHT STAY WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM IN EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DO A DIURNAL TREND...SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...30-40.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREST WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/SAT.

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OCCURS AT KPOU.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR...BUT AGAIN...OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS VERY LOW DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AT LESS
THAN 8 KT. ON FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN
THE MORNING AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT.
THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KT...WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30
KT OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY AFTN. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY LATELY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRI AFTN. WITH THE TREES
BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN UP PHASE...ANOTHER COMPONENT TO
EXAMINE IS THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX...WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
IN THE 200-250 RANGE. USUALLY...A VALUE OF 300 OR GREATER IS
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...AND ALONG WITH COORDINATION
WITH NYS OFFICIALS...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL BE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON BOTH SAT AND SUN AFTNS AS
WELL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER
LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERING A MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-058-063-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/LFM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 212356
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL FINALLY RETURNING DURING
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH. A POTENT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS...IS
ENHANCING MID LEVEL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN THE
THICKENING CLOUDS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE
LIMITED. SO...AS THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF I-90 THROUGH AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT ANY THAT DO REACH
THE GROUND WOULD LIKELY BE SPOTTY AT BEST.

LATER TONIGHT...THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION...WHILE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...THESE EXPECTED
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THEM FROM GETTING OVERLY COLD. MINS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY
APPROACH THE MID 30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...A
DEVELOPING WIND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP PREVENT ANY FROST FROM OCCURRING IN OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ESP IN THE
MORNING HOURS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH ITS PASSAGE...MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY COMPLETELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...W-NW WILL BECOME GUSTY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS
TO AROUND 725-750 HPA ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM FOR THE AFTN
HOURS. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME
PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
DESPITE THE COLD AIR WORKING IN...GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WINDS LOOKS TO DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS DROP
TO -4 TO -6 DEGREES C...WHICH ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN
GREENS...AND CATSKILLS...AS TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTEREST. EVEN OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WATCH
AREAS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY EVEN
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR SAT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IN PLACE. EVEN WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. MINS ON SAT NIGHT WON/T BE QUITE AS
COLD AS FRI NIGHT...BUT STILL FAIRLY CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE...AND RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW
LOCALITIES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS ALL ELUDE TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF MORE SUMMERY AIR
TO WORK INTO OUR REGION...SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG) SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN FACT...THIS BERMUDA HIGH MIGHT STAY WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM IN EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DO A DIURNAL TREND...SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...30-40.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREST WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/SAT.

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OCCURS AT KPOU.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR...BUT AGAIN...OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS VERY LOW DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AT LESS
THAN 8 KT. ON FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN
THE MORNING AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT.
THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KT...WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30
KT OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY AFTN. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY LATELY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRI AFTN. WITH THE TREES
BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN UP PHASE...ANOTHER COMPONENT TO
EXAMINE IS THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX...WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
IN THE 200-250 RANGE. USUALLY...A VALUE OF 300 OR GREATER IS
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...AND ALONG WITH COORDINATION
WITH NYS OFFICIALS...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL BE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON BOTH SAT AND SUN AFTNS AS
WELL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER
LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERING A MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-058-063-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 212356
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL FINALLY RETURNING DURING
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH. A POTENT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS...IS
ENHANCING MID LEVEL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN THE
THICKENING CLOUDS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE
LIMITED. SO...AS THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF I-90 THROUGH AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT ANY THAT DO REACH
THE GROUND WOULD LIKELY BE SPOTTY AT BEST.

LATER TONIGHT...THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION...WHILE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...THESE EXPECTED
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THEM FROM GETTING OVERLY COLD. MINS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY
APPROACH THE MID 30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...A
DEVELOPING WIND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP PREVENT ANY FROST FROM OCCURRING IN OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ESP IN THE
MORNING HOURS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH ITS PASSAGE...MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY COMPLETELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...W-NW WILL BECOME GUSTY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS
TO AROUND 725-750 HPA ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM FOR THE AFTN
HOURS. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME
PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
DESPITE THE COLD AIR WORKING IN...GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WINDS LOOKS TO DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS DROP
TO -4 TO -6 DEGREES C...WHICH ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN
GREENS...AND CATSKILLS...AS TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTEREST. EVEN OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WATCH
AREAS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY EVEN
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR SAT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IN PLACE. EVEN WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. MINS ON SAT NIGHT WON/T BE QUITE AS
COLD AS FRI NIGHT...BUT STILL FAIRLY CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE...AND RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW
LOCALITIES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS ALL ELUDE TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF MORE SUMMERY AIR
TO WORK INTO OUR REGION...SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG) SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN FACT...THIS BERMUDA HIGH MIGHT STAY WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM IN EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DO A DIURNAL TREND...SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...30-40.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREST WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/SAT.

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OCCURS AT KPOU.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR...BUT AGAIN...OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS VERY LOW DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AT LESS
THAN 8 KT. ON FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN
THE MORNING AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT.
THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KT...WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30
KT OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY AFTN. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY LATELY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRI AFTN. WITH THE TREES
BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN UP PHASE...ANOTHER COMPONENT TO
EXAMINE IS THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX...WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
IN THE 200-250 RANGE. USUALLY...A VALUE OF 300 OR GREATER IS
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...AND ALONG WITH COORDINATION
WITH NYS OFFICIALS...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL BE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON BOTH SAT AND SUN AFTNS AS
WELL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER
LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERING A MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-058-063-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 212356
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL FINALLY RETURNING DURING
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH. A POTENT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS...IS
ENHANCING MID LEVEL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN THE
THICKENING CLOUDS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE
LIMITED. SO...AS THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF I-90 THROUGH AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT ANY THAT DO REACH
THE GROUND WOULD LIKELY BE SPOTTY AT BEST.

LATER TONIGHT...THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION...WHILE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...THESE EXPECTED
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THEM FROM GETTING OVERLY COLD. MINS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY
APPROACH THE MID 30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...A
DEVELOPING WIND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP PREVENT ANY FROST FROM OCCURRING IN OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ESP IN THE
MORNING HOURS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH ITS PASSAGE...MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY COMPLETELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...W-NW WILL BECOME GUSTY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS
TO AROUND 725-750 HPA ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM FOR THE AFTN
HOURS. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME
PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
DESPITE THE COLD AIR WORKING IN...GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WINDS LOOKS TO DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS DROP
TO -4 TO -6 DEGREES C...WHICH ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN
GREENS...AND CATSKILLS...AS TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTEREST. EVEN OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WATCH
AREAS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY EVEN
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR SAT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IN PLACE. EVEN WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. MINS ON SAT NIGHT WON/T BE QUITE AS
COLD AS FRI NIGHT...BUT STILL FAIRLY CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE...AND RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW
LOCALITIES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS ALL ELUDE TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF MORE SUMMERY AIR
TO WORK INTO OUR REGION...SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG) SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN FACT...THIS BERMUDA HIGH MIGHT STAY WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM IN EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DO A DIURNAL TREND...SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...30-40.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREST WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/SAT.

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OCCURS AT KPOU.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR...BUT AGAIN...OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS VERY LOW DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AT LESS
THAN 8 KT. ON FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN
THE MORNING AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT.
THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KT...WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30
KT OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY AFTN. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY LATELY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRI AFTN. WITH THE TREES
BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN UP PHASE...ANOTHER COMPONENT TO
EXAMINE IS THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX...WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
IN THE 200-250 RANGE. USUALLY...A VALUE OF 300 OR GREATER IS
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...AND ALONG WITH COORDINATION
WITH NYS OFFICIALS...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL BE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON BOTH SAT AND SUN AFTNS AS
WELL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER
LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERING A MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-058-063-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 212349
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS
IN THE MID- UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 212349
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS
IN THE MID- UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 212349
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS
IN THE MID- UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 212349
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS
IN THE MID- UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 212349
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS
IN THE MID- UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 212349
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SOME STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE
THE STRATUS DECK WORK INTO NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. INTRODUCED SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY/VT DURING FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S...EXCEPT A FEW READINGS
IN THE MID- UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE ONLY SHOWN 20-30 POPS FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH
IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY
BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH
MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 212337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT...SO JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT UP A FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP
A FREEZE WATCH IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR
VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE
(KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS
HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 212337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT...SO JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT UP A FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP
A FREEZE WATCH IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR
VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE
(KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS
HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 212337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT...SO JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT UP A FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP
A FREEZE WATCH IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR
VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE
(KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS
HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 212337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT...SO JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT UP A FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP
A FREEZE WATCH IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR
VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE
(KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS
HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 212337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT...SO JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT UP A FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP
A FREEZE WATCH IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR
VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE
(KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS
HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 212337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT...SO JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT UP A FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP
A FREEZE WATCH IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR
VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE
(KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS
HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF
SITES BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
SLK AND MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV



000
FXUS61 KALY 212028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL FINALLY RETURNING DURING
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 428 PM EDT...OUR REGION IS CURRENTLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO
STORM SYSTEMS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...AND THIS SYSTEM IS STARTING TO HEAD NORTHEAST AND
OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE...A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND IS
HEADING OUR WAY.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BRUSHING INTO OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...WHILE NORTHERN AREAS ARE FAIRLY CLEAR. AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN ADDITION...SOME CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE IN NORTHERN AREAS
BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT STARTS TO NEAR THE
REGION AS WELL.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...THESE EXPECTED
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THEM FROM GETTING OVERLY COLD. MINS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY REACH
THE MID 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...A DEVELOPING WIND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP PREVENT
ANY FROST FROM OCCURRING IN OUR AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ESP IN THE
MORNING HOURS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH ITS PASSAGE...MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY COMPLETELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...W-NW WILL BECOME GUSTY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS
TO AROUND 725-750 HPA ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM FOR THE AFTN
HOURS. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME
PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
DESPITE THE COLD AIR WORKING IN...GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WINDS LOOKS TO DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS DROP
TO -4 TO -6 DEGREES C...WHICH ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN
GREENS...AND CATSKILLS...AS TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTEREST. EVEN OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WATCH
AREAS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY EVEN
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR SAT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IN PLACE. EVEN WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. MINS ON SAT NIGHT WON/T BE QUITE AS
COLD AS FRI NIGHT...BUT STILL FAIRLY CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE...AND RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW
LOCALITIES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS ALL ELUDE TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF MORE SUMMERY AIR
TO WORK INTO OUR REGION...SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG) SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN FACT...THIS BERMUDA HIGH MIGHT STAY WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM IN EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DO A DIURNAL TREND...SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...30-40.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREST WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRUSH MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS (8000-1200 KFT KFT) THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR HAS ERODED MUCH OF THESE CLOUDS
AS WELL.

THE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VARIABLE TO SOUTH...GENERALLY UNDER
10KTS...BUT A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO ABOUT 15KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WE ACTUALLY DID CARRY A TEMPO FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE KGFL TAF SITE
THROUGH 20Z.

TONIGHT...ANY GUSTY WINDS WILL DISSIPATE....WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE
TO SOUTH AROUND 5KTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A FEW MORE VFR BKN CIGS
(BASES 4-5 KFT) AND PERHAPS A PASSING SHOWER. AT THIS
POINT...CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWER REALLY IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL WAS LOW
ENOUGH TO NOT EVEN INCLUDE VCSH AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WIND WILL TURN WEST OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTY
MIDDAY FRIDAY ON. THEY WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS
20-25KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY AFTN. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY LATELY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRI AFTN. WITH THE TREES
BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN UP PHASE...ANOTHER COMPONENT TO
EXAMINE IS THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX...WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
IN THE 200-250 RANGE. USUALLY...A VALUE OF 300 OR GREATER IS
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...AND ALONG WITH COORDINATION
WITH NYS OFFICIALS...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL BE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON BOTH SAT AND SUN AFTNS AS
WELL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER
LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERING A MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-058-063-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 212028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL FINALLY RETURNING DURING
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 428 PM EDT...OUR REGION IS CURRENTLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO
STORM SYSTEMS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...AND THIS SYSTEM IS STARTING TO HEAD NORTHEAST AND
OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE...A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND IS
HEADING OUR WAY.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BRUSHING INTO OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...WHILE NORTHERN AREAS ARE FAIRLY CLEAR. AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN ADDITION...SOME CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE IN NORTHERN AREAS
BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT STARTS TO NEAR THE
REGION AS WELL.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...THESE EXPECTED
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THEM FROM GETTING OVERLY COLD. MINS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY REACH
THE MID 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...A DEVELOPING WIND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP PREVENT
ANY FROST FROM OCCURRING IN OUR AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ESP IN THE
MORNING HOURS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH ITS PASSAGE...MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY COMPLETELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...W-NW WILL BECOME GUSTY AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS
TO AROUND 725-750 HPA ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM FOR THE AFTN
HOURS. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME
PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
DESPITE THE COLD AIR WORKING IN...GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WINDS LOOKS TO DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 HPA TEMPS DROP
TO -4 TO -6 DEGREES C...WHICH ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN
GREENS...AND CATSKILLS...AS TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTEREST. EVEN OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WATCH
AREAS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY EVEN
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR SAT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IN PLACE. EVEN WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. MINS ON SAT NIGHT WON/T BE QUITE AS
COLD AS FRI NIGHT...BUT STILL FAIRLY CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE...AND RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION...TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW
LOCALITIES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS ALL ELUDE TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF MORE SUMMERY AIR
TO WORK INTO OUR REGION...SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG) SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN FACT...THIS BERMUDA HIGH MIGHT STAY WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM IN EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL DO A DIURNAL TREND...SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...30-40.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CREST WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRUSH MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS (8000-1200 KFT KFT) THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR HAS ERODED MUCH OF THESE CLOUDS
AS WELL.

THE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VARIABLE TO SOUTH...GENERALLY UNDER
10KTS...BUT A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO ABOUT 15KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WE ACTUALLY DID CARRY A TEMPO FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE KGFL TAF SITE
THROUGH 20Z.

TONIGHT...ANY GUSTY WINDS WILL DISSIPATE....WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE
TO SOUTH AROUND 5KTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A FEW MORE VFR BKN CIGS
(BASES 4-5 KFT) AND PERHAPS A PASSING SHOWER. AT THIS
POINT...CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWER REALLY IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL WAS LOW
ENOUGH TO NOT EVEN INCLUDE VCSH AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WIND WILL TURN WEST OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTY
MIDDAY FRIDAY ON. THEY WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS
20-25KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY AFTN. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY LATELY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRI AFTN. WITH THE TREES
BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN UP PHASE...ANOTHER COMPONENT TO
EXAMINE IS THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX...WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
IN THE 200-250 RANGE. USUALLY...A VALUE OF 300 OR GREATER IS
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...AND ALONG WITH COORDINATION
WITH NYS OFFICIALS...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

RH VALUES WILL BE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON BOTH SAT AND SUN AFTNS AS
WELL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER
LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERING A MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-058-063-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211958
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT...SO JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT UP A FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP
A FREEZE WATCH IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR
VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE
(KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS
HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211958
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT...SO JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT UP A FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP
A FREEZE WATCH IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR
VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE
(KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS
HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211958
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT...SO JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT UP A FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP
A FREEZE WATCH IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR
VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE
(KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS
HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211958
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT...SO JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT UP A FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP
A FREEZE WATCH IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR
VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE
(KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS
HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211958
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT...SO JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT UP A FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP
A FREEZE WATCH IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR
VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE
(KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS
HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211958
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT...SO JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT UP A FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP
A FREEZE WATCH IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR
VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE
(KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS
HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211958
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT...SO JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT UP A FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP
A FREEZE WATCH IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR
VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE
(KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS
HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211958
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT...SO JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT UP A FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND -32C AND AROUND -7C AT 850 MB
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THUS...HAVE PUT UP
A FREEZE WATCH IN THESE AREAS...AS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR
VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE
(KSLK) BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS
HAVING MIN TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SHORTER NIGHTS...FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD THERE...AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES AT SARANAC LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211910
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211910
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211910
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211910
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT.
GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW
VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB
WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND
MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
201 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
201 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
201 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
201 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KALY 211755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAINFALL FINALLY RETURNING DURING
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 155 PM EDT...BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...CLOUDS
ARE CLEARING OUT FORM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTN. HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHERN AREAS BY LATER
THIS AFTN...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ANY PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA...KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAX TEMPS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION. THE LOW
GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES...BUT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
SHOULD INHIBIT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND THUS THE LOW POPS.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS AND ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC...WILL
PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY DUE TO DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST FROM AROUND THE
HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THESE AREAS SLIGHTLY LATER AND GOOD MIXING WILL TEMPER THE COLD
ADVECTION.

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND DRIVING THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. ITS STAY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH UPPER 20S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT...MODELS ARE
INDICATING DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR HEADLINES...BUT WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND
TO MIXING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE
WESTERLY BREEZE INCREASING ONCE MIXING COMMENCES MAKING IT FEEL
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL WITH A WARMING TREND. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO
EXERT A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT...WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RISE TO 35 TO 54 PERCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHWEST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WON/T WARM THAT MUCH MORE...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO AROUND
60 BY TUESDAY...AND THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE WARM. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FLOWS INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...MAKING WEDNESDAY FEEL QUITE SUMMER LIKE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRUSH MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS (8000-1200 KFT KFT) THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR HAS ERODED MUCH OF THESE CLOUDS
AS WELL.

THE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VARIABLE TO SOUTH...GENERALLY UNDER
10KTS...BUT A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO ABOUT 15KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WE ACTUALLY DID CARRY A TEMPO FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE KGFL TAF SITE
THROUGH 20Z.

TONIGHT...ANY GUSTY WINDS WILL DISSIPATE....WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE
TO SOUTH AROUND 5KTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A FEW MORE VFR BKN CIGS
(BASES 4-5 KFT) AND PERHAPS A PASSING SHOWER. AT THIS
POINT...CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWER REALLY IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL WAS LOW
ENOUGH TO NOT EVEN INCLUDE VCSH AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WIND WILL TURN WEST OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTY
MIDDAY FRIDAY ON. THEY WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS
20-25KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES FOR THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS...

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT BOTH THIS AFTN AND FRIDAY
AFTN. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT...W-NW
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SOME
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY LATELY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRI AFTN. WITH THE TREES
BEING IN THE LEAFED OUT/GREEN UP PHASE...ANOTHER COMPONENT TO
EXAMINE IS THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX...WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
IN THE 200-250 RANGE. USUALLY...A VALUE OF 300 OR GREATER IS
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...AND ALONG WITH COORDINATION
WITH NYS OFFICIALS...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DESPITE THIS...EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL SOMETIME
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. OTHER THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY. RIVER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP WITH THE LACK OF RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 211721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME
PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHILLY AIR MASS MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST
OR FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...RADARS ECHOES UP OVER 20 DBX TO OUR SOUTHWEST
INDICATED SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THESE WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE ECHOES...NO REPORTS OF RAINFALL UNTIL ONE GETS INTO PA. ALY RAOB
INDICATED A LOT OF DRY BELOW THE 600 MB LEVEL (ABOUT 15000 OFF THE
DECK).

STILL A FEW SPRINKLES COULD MAKE IT TO THE GROUND FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTHWARD...VERY LIKELY WILL NOT MEASURE. SO INCLUDE A CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES FOR A FEW HOURS.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...ADDED THE CHANCE OF SPRINKLES...INCREASED THE
CLOUD COVER PER SATELLITE PICTURES. OTHERWISE JUST THE USUAL
TINKERING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW
AS IT LOOKS AS DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK BACK IN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TODAY...AVERAGING 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION. THE LOW
GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES...BUT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
SHOULD INHIBIT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND THUS THE LOW POPS.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS AND ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC...WILL
PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY DUE TO DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST FROM AROUND THE
HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THESE AREAS SLIGHTLY LATER AND GOOD MIXING WILL TEMPER THE COLD
ADVECTION.

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND DRIVING THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. ITS STAY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH UPPER 20S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT...MODELS ARE
INDICATING DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR HEADLINES...BUT WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND
TO MIXING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE
WESTERLY BREEZE INCREASING ONCE MIXING COMMENCES MAKING IT FEEL
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL WITH A WARMING TREND. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO
EXERT A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT...WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RISE TO 35 TO 54 PERCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHWEST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WON/T WARM THAT MUCH MORE...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO AROUND
60 BY TUESDAY...AND THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE WARM. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FLOWS INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...MAKING WEDNESDAY FEEL QUITE SUMMER LIKE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRUSH MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS (8000-1200 KFT KFT) THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR HAS ERODED MUCH OF THESE CLOUDS
AS WELL.

THE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VARIABLE TO SOUTH...GENERALLY UNDER
10KTS...BUT A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO ABOUT 15KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WE ACTUALLY DID CARRY A TEMPO FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE KGFL TAF SITE
THROUGH 20Z.

TONIGHT...ANY GUSTY WINDS WILL DISSIPATE....WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE
TO SOUTH AROUND 5KTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A FEW MORE VFR BKN CIGS
(BASES 4-5 KFT) AND PERHAPS A PASSING SHOWER. AT THIS
POINT...CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWER REALLY IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL WAS LOW
ENOUGH TO NOT EVEN INCLUDE VCSH AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WIND WILL TURN WEST OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTY
MIDDAY FRIDAY ON. THEY WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS
20-25KTS.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: LOW
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX. SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 MPH.

THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
WILL COORDINATE WITH USERS ON POSSIBLE HEADLINES DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. OTHER THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY. RIVER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP WITH THE LACK OF RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 211721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME
PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHILLY AIR MASS MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST
OR FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...RADARS ECHOES UP OVER 20 DBX TO OUR SOUTHWEST
INDICATED SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THESE WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE ECHOES...NO REPORTS OF RAINFALL UNTIL ONE GETS INTO PA. ALY RAOB
INDICATED A LOT OF DRY BELOW THE 600 MB LEVEL (ABOUT 15000 OFF THE
DECK).

STILL A FEW SPRINKLES COULD MAKE IT TO THE GROUND FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTHWARD...VERY LIKELY WILL NOT MEASURE. SO INCLUDE A CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES FOR A FEW HOURS.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...ADDED THE CHANCE OF SPRINKLES...INCREASED THE
CLOUD COVER PER SATELLITE PICTURES. OTHERWISE JUST THE USUAL
TINKERING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW
AS IT LOOKS AS DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK BACK IN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TODAY...AVERAGING 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION. THE LOW
GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES...BUT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
SHOULD INHIBIT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND THUS THE LOW POPS.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS AND ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC...WILL
PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY DUE TO DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST FROM AROUND THE
HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THESE AREAS SLIGHTLY LATER AND GOOD MIXING WILL TEMPER THE COLD
ADVECTION.

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND DRIVING THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. ITS STAY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH UPPER 20S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT...MODELS ARE
INDICATING DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR HEADLINES...BUT WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND
TO MIXING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE
WESTERLY BREEZE INCREASING ONCE MIXING COMMENCES MAKING IT FEEL
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL WITH A WARMING TREND. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO
EXERT A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT...WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RISE TO 35 TO 54 PERCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHWEST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WON/T WARM THAT MUCH MORE...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO AROUND
60 BY TUESDAY...AND THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE WARM. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FLOWS INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...MAKING WEDNESDAY FEEL QUITE SUMMER LIKE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRUSH MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS (8000-1200 KFT KFT) THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR HAS ERODED MUCH OF THESE CLOUDS
AS WELL.

THE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VARIABLE TO SOUTH...GENERALLY UNDER
10KTS...BUT A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO ABOUT 15KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WE ACTUALLY DID CARRY A TEMPO FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE KGFL TAF SITE
THROUGH 20Z.

TONIGHT...ANY GUSTY WINDS WILL DISSIPATE....WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE
TO SOUTH AROUND 5KTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A FEW MORE VFR BKN CIGS
(BASES 4-5 KFT) AND PERHAPS A PASSING SHOWER. AT THIS
POINT...CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWER REALLY IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL WAS LOW
ENOUGH TO NOT EVEN INCLUDE VCSH AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WIND WILL TURN WEST OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTY
MIDDAY FRIDAY ON. THEY WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS
20-25KTS.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: LOW
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX. SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 MPH.

THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
WILL COORDINATE WITH USERS ON POSSIBLE HEADLINES DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. OTHER THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY. RIVER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP WITH THE LACK OF RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 211721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME
PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHILLY AIR MASS MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST
OR FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...RADARS ECHOES UP OVER 20 DBX TO OUR SOUTHWEST
INDICATED SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THESE WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE ECHOES...NO REPORTS OF RAINFALL UNTIL ONE GETS INTO PA. ALY RAOB
INDICATED A LOT OF DRY BELOW THE 600 MB LEVEL (ABOUT 15000 OFF THE
DECK).

STILL A FEW SPRINKLES COULD MAKE IT TO THE GROUND FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTHWARD...VERY LIKELY WILL NOT MEASURE. SO INCLUDE A CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES FOR A FEW HOURS.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...ADDED THE CHANCE OF SPRINKLES...INCREASED THE
CLOUD COVER PER SATELLITE PICTURES. OTHERWISE JUST THE USUAL
TINKERING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW
AS IT LOOKS AS DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK BACK IN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TODAY...AVERAGING 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION. THE LOW
GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES...BUT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
SHOULD INHIBIT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND THUS THE LOW POPS.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS AND ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC...WILL
PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY DUE TO DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST FROM AROUND THE
HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THESE AREAS SLIGHTLY LATER AND GOOD MIXING WILL TEMPER THE COLD
ADVECTION.

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND DRIVING THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. ITS STAY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH UPPER 20S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT...MODELS ARE
INDICATING DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR HEADLINES...BUT WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND
TO MIXING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE
WESTERLY BREEZE INCREASING ONCE MIXING COMMENCES MAKING IT FEEL
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL WITH A WARMING TREND. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO
EXERT A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT...WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RISE TO 35 TO 54 PERCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHWEST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WON/T WARM THAT MUCH MORE...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO AROUND
60 BY TUESDAY...AND THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE WARM. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FLOWS INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...MAKING WEDNESDAY FEEL QUITE SUMMER LIKE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRUSH MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS (8000-1200 KFT KFT) THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR HAS ERODED MUCH OF THESE CLOUDS
AS WELL.

THE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VARIABLE TO SOUTH...GENERALLY UNDER
10KTS...BUT A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO ABOUT 15KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WE ACTUALLY DID CARRY A TEMPO FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE KGFL TAF SITE
THROUGH 20Z.

TONIGHT...ANY GUSTY WINDS WILL DISSIPATE....WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE
TO SOUTH AROUND 5KTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A FEW MORE VFR BKN CIGS
(BASES 4-5 KFT) AND PERHAPS A PASSING SHOWER. AT THIS
POINT...CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWER REALLY IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL WAS LOW
ENOUGH TO NOT EVEN INCLUDE VCSH AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WIND WILL TURN WEST OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTY
MIDDAY FRIDAY ON. THEY WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS
20-25KTS.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: LOW
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX. SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 MPH.

THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
WILL COORDINATE WITH USERS ON POSSIBLE HEADLINES DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. OTHER THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY. RIVER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP WITH THE LACK OF RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 211721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME
PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHILLY AIR MASS MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST
OR FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...RADARS ECHOES UP OVER 20 DBX TO OUR SOUTHWEST
INDICATED SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THESE WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE ECHOES...NO REPORTS OF RAINFALL UNTIL ONE GETS INTO PA. ALY RAOB
INDICATED A LOT OF DRY BELOW THE 600 MB LEVEL (ABOUT 15000 OFF THE
DECK).

STILL A FEW SPRINKLES COULD MAKE IT TO THE GROUND FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTHWARD...VERY LIKELY WILL NOT MEASURE. SO INCLUDE A CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES FOR A FEW HOURS.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...ADDED THE CHANCE OF SPRINKLES...INCREASED THE
CLOUD COVER PER SATELLITE PICTURES. OTHERWISE JUST THE USUAL
TINKERING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW
AS IT LOOKS AS DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK BACK IN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TODAY...AVERAGING 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION. THE LOW
GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES...BUT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
SHOULD INHIBIT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND THUS THE LOW POPS.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS AND ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC...WILL
PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY DUE TO DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST FROM AROUND THE
HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THESE AREAS SLIGHTLY LATER AND GOOD MIXING WILL TEMPER THE COLD
ADVECTION.

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND DRIVING THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. ITS STAY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH UPPER 20S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT...MODELS ARE
INDICATING DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR HEADLINES...BUT WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND
TO MIXING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE
WESTERLY BREEZE INCREASING ONCE MIXING COMMENCES MAKING IT FEEL
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL WITH A WARMING TREND. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO
EXERT A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT...WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RISE TO 35 TO 54 PERCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHWEST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WON/T WARM THAT MUCH MORE...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO AROUND
60 BY TUESDAY...AND THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE WARM. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FLOWS INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...MAKING WEDNESDAY FEEL QUITE SUMMER LIKE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRUSH MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS (8000-1200 KFT KFT) THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR HAS ERODED MUCH OF THESE CLOUDS
AS WELL.

THE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VARIABLE TO SOUTH...GENERALLY UNDER
10KTS...BUT A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO ABOUT 15KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WE ACTUALLY DID CARRY A TEMPO FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE KGFL TAF SITE
THROUGH 20Z.

TONIGHT...ANY GUSTY WINDS WILL DISSIPATE....WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE
TO SOUTH AROUND 5KTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A FEW MORE VFR BKN CIGS
(BASES 4-5 KFT) AND PERHAPS A PASSING SHOWER. AT THIS
POINT...CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWER REALLY IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL WAS LOW
ENOUGH TO NOT EVEN INCLUDE VCSH AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WIND WILL TURN WEST OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTY
MIDDAY FRIDAY ON. THEY WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS
20-25KTS.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: LOW
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX. SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 MPH.

THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
WILL COORDINATE WITH USERS ON POSSIBLE HEADLINES DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. OTHER THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY. RIVER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP WITH THE LACK OF RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
112 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
112 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
112 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
112 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211435
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1035 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT THURSDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THAT WERE OVER THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING MAINLY
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211435
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1035 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT THURSDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THAT WERE OVER THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING MAINLY
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211435
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1035 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT THURSDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THAT WERE OVER THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING MAINLY
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211435
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1035 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT THURSDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THAT WERE OVER THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING MAINLY
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG



000
FXUS61 KALY 211343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME
PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHILLY AIR MASS MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST
OR FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...RADARS ECHOES UP OVER 20 DBX TO OUR SOUTHWEST
INDICATED SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THESE WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE ECHOES...NO REPORTS OF RAINFALL UNTIL ONE GETS INTO PA. ALY RAOB
INDICATED A LOT OF DRY BELOW THE 600 MB LEVEL (ABOUT 15000 OFF THE
DECK).

STILL A FEW SPRINKLES COULD MAKE IT TO THE GROUND FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTHWARD...VERY LIKELY WILL NOT MEASURE. SO INCLUDE A CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES FOR A FEW HOURS.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...ADDED THE CHANCE OF SPRINKLES...INCREASED THE
CLOUD COVER PER SATELLITE PICTURES. OTHERWISE JUST THE USUAL
TINKERING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW
AS IT LOOKS AS DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK BACK IN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TODAY...AVERAGING 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION. THE LOW
GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES...BUT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
SHOULD INHIBIT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND THUS THE LOW POPS.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS AND ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC...WILL
PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY DUE TO DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST FROM AROUND THE
HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THESE AREAS SLIGHTLY LATER AND GOOD MIXING WILL TEMPER THE COLD
ADVECTION.

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND DRIVING THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. ITS STAY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH UPPER 20S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT...MODELS ARE
INDICATING DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR HEADLINES...BUT WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND
TO MIXING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE
WESTERLY BREEZE INCREASING ONCE MIXING COMMENCES MAKING IT FEEL
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL WITH A WARMING TREND. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO
EXERT A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT...WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RISE TO 35 TO 54 PERCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHWEST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WON/T WARM THAT MUCH MORE...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO AROUND
60 BY TUESDAY...AND THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE WARM. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FLOWS INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...MAKING WEDNESDAY FEEL QUITE SUMMER LIKE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS TAF PERIOD
ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUT TO SEA OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES
TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5 KTS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS POSSIBLE
AT KALB. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 MPH.

THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
WILL COORDINATE WITH USERS ON POSSIBLE HEADLINES DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. OTHER THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY. RIVER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP WITH THE LACK OF RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211110
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
710 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING TRENDING
PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO DROP FROST ADVISORIES,
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED AT THE
SURFACE WHILE ALOFT A WEAK TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL TREND TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY IN THE 30S AND 40S, SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211110
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
710 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING TRENDING
PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO DROP FROST ADVISORIES,
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED AT THE
SURFACE WHILE ALOFT A WEAK TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL TREND TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY IN THE 30S AND 40S, SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211110
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
710 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING TRENDING
PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO DROP FROST ADVISORIES,
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED AT THE
SURFACE WHILE ALOFT A WEAK TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL TREND TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY IN THE 30S AND 40S, SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211110
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
710 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING TRENDING
PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO DROP FROST ADVISORIES,
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED AT THE
SURFACE WHILE ALOFT A WEAK TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL TREND TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY IN THE 30S AND 40S, SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211107
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
707 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING TRENDING
PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED AT THE
SURFACE WHILE ALOFT A WEAK TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL TREND TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY IN THE 30S AND 40S, SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211107
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
707 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING TRENDING
PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED AT THE
SURFACE WHILE ALOFT A WEAK TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL TREND TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY IN THE 30S AND 40S, SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES TENDING TO BE MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO
TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER WITH
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG



000
FXUS61 KALY 211037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHILLY AIR MASS MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST
OR FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...FROST ADVISORY CANCELLED AS TEMPERATURES
ALREADY STARTING TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS
THOUGH...SO SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE EITHER PARTLY SUNNY OR MOSTLY
CLOUDY. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN FURTHER LATE IN THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH
CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TODAY...AVERAGING 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION. THE LOW
GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES...BUT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
SHOULD INHIBIT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND THUS THE LOW POPS.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS AND ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC...WILL
PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY DUE TO DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST FROM AROUND THE
HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THESE AREAS SLIGHTLY LATER AND GOOD MIXING WILL TEMPER THE COLD
ADVECTION.

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND DRIVING THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. ITS STAY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH UPPER 20S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT...MODELS ARE
INDICATING DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR HEADLINES...BUT WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND
TO MIXING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE
WESTERLY BREEZE INCREASING ONCE MIXING COMMENCES MAKING IT FEEL
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL WITH A WARMING TREND. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO
EXERT A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT...WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RISE TO 35 TO 54 PERCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHWEST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WON/T WARM THAT MUCH MORE...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO AROUND
60 BY TUESDAY...AND THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE WARM. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FLOWS INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...MAKING WEDNESDAY FEEL QUITE SUMMER LIKE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUT TO SEA OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES
TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 4
TO 6 KTS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS POSSIBLE
AT KALB. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 MPH.

THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
WILL COORDINATE WITH USERS ON POSSIBLE HEADLINES DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. OTHER THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY. RIVER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP WITH THE LACK OF RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 211037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHILLY AIR MASS MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST
OR FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...FROST ADVISORY CANCELLED AS TEMPERATURES
ALREADY STARTING TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS
THOUGH...SO SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE EITHER PARTLY SUNNY OR MOSTLY
CLOUDY. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN FURTHER LATE IN THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH
CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TODAY...AVERAGING 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION. THE LOW
GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES...BUT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
SHOULD INHIBIT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND THUS THE LOW POPS.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS AND ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC...WILL
PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY DUE TO DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST FROM AROUND THE
HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THESE AREAS SLIGHTLY LATER AND GOOD MIXING WILL TEMPER THE COLD
ADVECTION.

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND DRIVING THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. ITS STAY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH UPPER 20S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT...MODELS ARE
INDICATING DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR HEADLINES...BUT WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND
TO MIXING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE
WESTERLY BREEZE INCREASING ONCE MIXING COMMENCES MAKING IT FEEL
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL WITH A WARMING TREND. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO
EXERT A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT...WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RISE TO 35 TO 54 PERCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHWEST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WON/T WARM THAT MUCH MORE...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO AROUND
60 BY TUESDAY...AND THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE WARM. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FLOWS INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...MAKING WEDNESDAY FEEL QUITE SUMMER LIKE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUT TO SEA OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES
TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 4
TO 6 KTS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS POSSIBLE
AT KALB. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 MPH.

THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
WILL COORDINATE WITH USERS ON POSSIBLE HEADLINES DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. OTHER THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY. RIVER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP WITH THE LACK OF RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 211030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHILLY AIR MASS MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST
OR FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...FROST ADVISORY CANCELLED AS TEMPERATURES
ALREADY STARTING TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS
THOUGH...SO SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE EITHER PARTLY SUNNY OR MOSTLY
CLOUDY. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN FURTHER LATE IN THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH
CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TODAY...AVERAGING 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION. THE LOW
GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES...BUT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
SHOULD INHIBIT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND THUS THE LOW POPS.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS AND ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC...WILL
PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY DUE TO DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST FROM AROUND THE
HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THESE AREAS SLIGHTLY LATER AND GOOD MIXING WILL TEMPER THE COLD
ADVECTION.

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND DRIVING THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. ITS STAY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH UPPER 20S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT...MODELS ARE
INDICATING DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR HEADLINES...BUT WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND
TO MIXING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE
WESTERLY BREEZE INCREASING ONCE MIXING COMMENCES MAKING IT FEEL
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL WITH A WARMING TREND. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO
EXERT A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT...WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RISE TO 35 TO 54 PERCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHWEST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WON/T WARM THAT MUCH MORE...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO AROUND
60 BY TUESDAY...AND THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE WARM. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FLOWS INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...MAKING WEDNESDAY FEEL QUITE SUMMER LIKE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUT TO SEA OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION.

EXPECT MAINLY CALM WINDS AT KALB/KPOU/KGFL...AND WESTERLY LESS
THAN 8 KTS AT KPSF THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 4 TO 6 KTS DURING THE REST OF THURSDAY MORNING...
BECOMING WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 MPH.

THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
WILL COORDINATE WITH USERS ON POSSIBLE HEADLINES DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. OTHER THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY. RIVER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP WITH THE LACK OF RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 211030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHILLY AIR MASS MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST
OR FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...FROST ADVISORY CANCELLED AS TEMPERATURES
ALREADY STARTING TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS
THOUGH...SO SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE EITHER PARTLY SUNNY OR MOSTLY
CLOUDY. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN FURTHER LATE IN THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH
CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TODAY...AVERAGING 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION. THE LOW
GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES...BUT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
SHOULD INHIBIT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND THUS THE LOW POPS.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS AND ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC...WILL
PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY DUE TO DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST FROM AROUND THE
HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THESE AREAS SLIGHTLY LATER AND GOOD MIXING WILL TEMPER THE COLD
ADVECTION.

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND DRIVING THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. ITS STAY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH UPPER 20S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT...MODELS ARE
INDICATING DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR HEADLINES...BUT WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND
TO MIXING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE
WESTERLY BREEZE INCREASING ONCE MIXING COMMENCES MAKING IT FEEL
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL WITH A WARMING TREND. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO
EXERT A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT...WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RISE TO 35 TO 54 PERCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHWEST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WON/T WARM THAT MUCH MORE...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO AROUND
60 BY TUESDAY...AND THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE WARM. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FLOWS INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...MAKING WEDNESDAY FEEL QUITE SUMMER LIKE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUT TO SEA OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION.

EXPECT MAINLY CALM WINDS AT KALB/KPOU/KGFL...AND WESTERLY LESS
THAN 8 KTS AT KPSF THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 4 TO 6 KTS DURING THE REST OF THURSDAY MORNING...
BECOMING WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 MPH.

THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
WILL COORDINATE WITH USERS ON POSSIBLE HEADLINES DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. OTHER THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY. RIVER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP WITH THE LACK OF RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 211030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHILLY AIR MASS MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST
OR FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...FROST ADVISORY CANCELLED AS TEMPERATURES
ALREADY STARTING TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS
THOUGH...SO SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE EITHER PARTLY SUNNY OR MOSTLY
CLOUDY. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN FURTHER LATE IN THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH
CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TODAY...AVERAGING 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION. THE LOW
GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES...BUT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
SHOULD INHIBIT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND THUS THE LOW POPS.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS AND ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC...WILL
PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY DUE TO DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST FROM AROUND THE
HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THESE AREAS SLIGHTLY LATER AND GOOD MIXING WILL TEMPER THE COLD
ADVECTION.

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND DRIVING THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. ITS STAY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH UPPER 20S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT...MODELS ARE
INDICATING DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR HEADLINES...BUT WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND
TO MIXING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE
WESTERLY BREEZE INCREASING ONCE MIXING COMMENCES MAKING IT FEEL
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL WITH A WARMING TREND. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO
EXERT A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT...WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RISE TO 35 TO 54 PERCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHWEST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WON/T WARM THAT MUCH MORE...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO AROUND
60 BY TUESDAY...AND THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE WARM. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FLOWS INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...MAKING WEDNESDAY FEEL QUITE SUMMER LIKE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUT TO SEA OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION.

EXPECT MAINLY CALM WINDS AT KALB/KPOU/KGFL...AND WESTERLY LESS
THAN 8 KTS AT KPSF THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 4 TO 6 KTS DURING THE REST OF THURSDAY MORNING...
BECOMING WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 MPH.

THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
WILL COORDINATE WITH USERS ON POSSIBLE HEADLINES DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. OTHER THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY. RIVER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP WITH THE LACK OF RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 211030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHILLY AIR MASS MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST
OR FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...FROST ADVISORY CANCELLED AS TEMPERATURES
ALREADY STARTING TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS
THOUGH...SO SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE EITHER PARTLY SUNNY OR MOSTLY
CLOUDY. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN FURTHER LATE IN THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH
CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TODAY...AVERAGING 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION. THE LOW
GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES...BUT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
SHOULD INHIBIT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND THUS THE LOW POPS.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS AND ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC...WILL
PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY DUE TO DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST FROM AROUND THE
HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THESE AREAS SLIGHTLY LATER AND GOOD MIXING WILL TEMPER THE COLD
ADVECTION.

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND DRIVING THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. ITS STAY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH UPPER 20S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT...MODELS ARE
INDICATING DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR HEADLINES...BUT WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND
TO MIXING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE
WESTERLY BREEZE INCREASING ONCE MIXING COMMENCES MAKING IT FEEL
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL WITH A WARMING TREND. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO
EXERT A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT...WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RISE TO 35 TO 54 PERCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHWEST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WON/T WARM THAT MUCH MORE...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO AROUND
60 BY TUESDAY...AND THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE WARM. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FLOWS INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...MAKING WEDNESDAY FEEL QUITE SUMMER LIKE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUT TO SEA OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION.

EXPECT MAINLY CALM WINDS AT KALB/KPOU/KGFL...AND WESTERLY LESS
THAN 8 KTS AT KPSF THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 4 TO 6 KTS DURING THE REST OF THURSDAY MORNING...
BECOMING WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 MPH.

THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
WILL COORDINATE WITH USERS ON POSSIBLE HEADLINES DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. OTHER THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY. RIVER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP WITH THE LACK OF RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING TRENDING
PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED AT THE
SURFACE WHILE ALOFT A WEAK TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL TREND TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY IN THE 30S AND 40S, SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO TERRAIN/LAKE
BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING TRENDING
PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED AT THE
SURFACE WHILE ALOFT A WEAK TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL TREND TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY IN THE 30S AND 40S, SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO TERRAIN/LAKE
BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING TRENDING
PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED AT THE
SURFACE WHILE ALOFT A WEAK TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL TREND TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY IN THE 30S AND 40S, SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO TERRAIN/LAKE
BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING TRENDING
PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED AT THE
SURFACE WHILE ALOFT A WEAK TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL TREND TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY IN THE 30S AND 40S, SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL
LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY,
ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
INITIALLY GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD LATE SPRING NORMS. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY WASH OUT/DISSOLVE AS IT
CROSSES THE INTL BORDER SO HAVE JUST CARRIED NOMINAL 20/30 POPS
NORTH ACCORDINGLY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY THEN BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EUROPEAN OUTPUT
REMAINING AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR
NEW YORK BY MONDAY, WHEREAS THE SLOWER EUROPEAN OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPRESS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY. GIVEN ROBUST
THERMAL WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, THESE DIFFERENCES
MANIFEST THEMSELVES QUITE CLEARLY IN BOTH MODEL`S RESPECTIVE MOS MAX
TEMP FORECASTS. GIVEN THE SEMI-PERMANENCE OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN
CONUS BLOCK IT WOULD APPEAR LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
AN IDEA LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER EUROPEAN IDEA WOULD SEEM MORE
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT SHOWING THE WETTER PERIODS COMING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER I OFFERED A
GENERAL GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE NOTED
TIMING DIFFERENCES (70S & 50S), THOUGH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF MIXING
AND INSOLATION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION VERIFIES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST ENTERS A WARMER/MORE MOIST
AIRMASS (PWATS TO 1.5 IN) UNDER DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUNDLES SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO TERRAIN/LAKE
BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV



000
FXUS61 KALY 210814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
414 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHILLY AIR MASS MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST
OR FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...FROST ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM FOR
AREAS OUTSIDE THE HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE BREAKS
THOUGH...AS THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT OPAQUE. THIS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FROST OUTSIDE THE HUDSON VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO
THICKEN LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD AT LEAST
AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TODAY...AVERAGING 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION. THE LOW
GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES...BUT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
SHOULD INHIBIT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND THUS THE LOW POPS.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS AND ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC...WILL
PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY DUE TO DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST FROM AROUND THE
HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THESE AREAS SLIGHTLY LATER AND GOOD MIXING WILL TEMPER THE COLD
ADVECTION.

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND DRIVING THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. ITS STAY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH UPPER 20S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT...MODELS ARE
INDICATING DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR HEADLINES...BUT WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND
TO MIXING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE
WESTERLY BREEZE INCREASING ONCE MIXING COMMENCES MAKING IT FEEL
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL WITH A WARMING TREND. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO
EXERT A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT...WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RISE TO 35 TO 54 PERCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHWEST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WON/T WARM THAT MUCH MORE...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO AROUND
60 BY TUESDAY...AND THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE WARM. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FLOWS INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...MAKING WEDNESDAY FEEL QUITE SUMMER LIKE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUT TO SEA OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION.

EXPECT MAINLY CALM WINDS AT KALB/KPOU/KGFL...AND WESTERLY LESS
THAN 8 KTS AT KPSF THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 4 TO 6 KTS DURING THE REST OF THURSDAY MORNING...
BECOMING WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 MPH.

THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
WILL COORDINATE WITH USERS ON POSSIBLE HEADLINES DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. OTHER THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY. RIVER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP WITH THE LACK OF RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 210814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
414 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHILLY AIR MASS MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST
OR FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...FROST ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM FOR
AREAS OUTSIDE THE HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE BREAKS
THOUGH...AS THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT OPAQUE. THIS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FROST OUTSIDE THE HUDSON VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO
THICKEN LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD AT LEAST
AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TODAY...AVERAGING 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION. THE LOW
GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES...BUT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
SHOULD INHIBIT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND THUS THE LOW POPS.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS AND ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC...WILL
PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY DUE TO DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST FROM AROUND THE
HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THESE AREAS SLIGHTLY LATER AND GOOD MIXING WILL TEMPER THE COLD
ADVECTION.

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND DRIVING THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. ITS STAY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH UPPER 20S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT...MODELS ARE
INDICATING DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR HEADLINES...BUT WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND
TO MIXING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE
WESTERLY BREEZE INCREASING ONCE MIXING COMMENCES MAKING IT FEEL
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL WITH A WARMING TREND. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO
EXERT A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT...WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RISE TO 35 TO 54 PERCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHWEST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WON/T WARM THAT MUCH MORE...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO AROUND
60 BY TUESDAY...AND THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE WARM. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FLOWS INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...MAKING WEDNESDAY FEEL QUITE SUMMER LIKE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUT TO SEA OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION.

EXPECT MAINLY CALM WINDS AT KALB/KPOU/KGFL...AND WESTERLY LESS
THAN 8 KTS AT KPSF THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 4 TO 6 KTS DURING THE REST OF THURSDAY MORNING...
BECOMING WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 MPH.

THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
WILL COORDINATE WITH USERS ON POSSIBLE HEADLINES DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. OTHER THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY. RIVER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP WITH THE LACK OF RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 210814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
414 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHILLY AIR MASS MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST
OR FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...FROST ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM FOR
AREAS OUTSIDE THE HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE BREAKS
THOUGH...AS THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT OPAQUE. THIS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FROST OUTSIDE THE HUDSON VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO
THICKEN LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD AT LEAST
AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TODAY...AVERAGING 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION. THE LOW
GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES...BUT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
SHOULD INHIBIT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND THUS THE LOW POPS.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS AND ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC...WILL
PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY DUE TO DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST FROM AROUND THE
HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THESE AREAS SLIGHTLY LATER AND GOOD MIXING WILL TEMPER THE COLD
ADVECTION.

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND DRIVING THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. ITS STAY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH UPPER 20S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT...MODELS ARE
INDICATING DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR HEADLINES...BUT WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND
TO MIXING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE
WESTERLY BREEZE INCREASING ONCE MIXING COMMENCES MAKING IT FEEL
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL WITH A WARMING TREND. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO
EXERT A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT...WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RISE TO 35 TO 54 PERCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHWEST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WON/T WARM THAT MUCH MORE...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO AROUND
60 BY TUESDAY...AND THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE WARM. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FLOWS INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...MAKING WEDNESDAY FEEL QUITE SUMMER LIKE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUT TO SEA OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION.

EXPECT MAINLY CALM WINDS AT KALB/KPOU/KGFL...AND WESTERLY LESS
THAN 8 KTS AT KPSF THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 4 TO 6 KTS DURING THE REST OF THURSDAY MORNING...
BECOMING WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 MPH.

THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
WILL COORDINATE WITH USERS ON POSSIBLE HEADLINES DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. OTHER THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY. RIVER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP WITH THE LACK OF RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 210814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
414 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHILLY AIR MASS MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST
OR FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...FROST ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM FOR
AREAS OUTSIDE THE HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE BREAKS
THOUGH...AS THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT OPAQUE. THIS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF FROST OUTSIDE THE HUDSON VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO
THICKEN LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD AT LEAST
AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TODAY...AVERAGING 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION. THE LOW
GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES...BUT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
SHOULD INHIBIT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND THUS THE LOW POPS.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS AND ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC...WILL
PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY DUE TO DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST FROM AROUND THE
HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THESE AREAS SLIGHTLY LATER AND GOOD MIXING WILL TEMPER THE COLD
ADVECTION.

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND DRIVING THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. ITS STAY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH UPPER 20S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT...MODELS ARE
INDICATING DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR HEADLINES...BUT WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND
TO MIXING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE
WESTERLY BREEZE INCREASING ONCE MIXING COMMENCES MAKING IT FEEL
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL WITH A WARMING TREND. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO
EXERT A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT...WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RISE TO 35 TO 54 PERCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHWEST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WON/T WARM THAT MUCH MORE...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO AROUND
60 BY TUESDAY...AND THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE WARM. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FLOWS INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...MAKING WEDNESDAY FEEL QUITE SUMMER LIKE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUT TO SEA OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION.

EXPECT MAINLY CALM WINDS AT KALB/KPOU/KGFL...AND WESTERLY LESS
THAN 8 KTS AT KPSF THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 4 TO 6 KTS DURING THE REST OF THURSDAY MORNING...
BECOMING WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 MPH.

THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
WILL COORDINATE WITH USERS ON POSSIBLE HEADLINES DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. OTHER THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY. RIVER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP WITH THE LACK OF RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 210538
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DECREASING WIND AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER...A CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FROST IN
OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WON/T BE QUITE AS COOL AS
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
START THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM UP FOR
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 119 AM EDT...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SINCE THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO CHILLY LEVELS FOR MID MAY...WITH MANY OUTLYING AREAS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. TEMPS IN THE CAPITAL REGION/HUDSON VALLEY
LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUTLYING/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THESE CHILLY
TEMPS...AS SENSITIVE AND YOUNG VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF
PROTECTIVE MEASURES ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM
UP QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR INTO
THE REGION. THERE WON/T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL THIS
SYSTEM...BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN.

TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CHILLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH
850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -5 DEGREES C. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL
QUICKLY.  THERE MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEREAFTER...THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INCREASES...ESP FOR LATE MON INTO WED...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS...ALLOWING SOME WARMTH AND MOISTURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THIS
TRANSITION...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE INCREASING CLOUD AND
SHOWER THREAT AS EARLY AS SUN NT OR MON...WHILE SEVERAL OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
DELAYED WITH THIS TRANSITION...KEEPING MOST OF MONDAY DRY...WITH THE
SHOWER THREAT HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON NT OR TUE AM.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-WED NT...AS
OUR REGION SHOULD BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

SO...FOR SAT-SUN NT...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...IN
CASE A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS SOME CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS FOR LATE SUN...BUT FOR NOW...HOLDING OFF ANY SLIGHT CHC
POPS UNTIL LATER SUN NT. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT...WITH
MAXES REACHING LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ON SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S IN
VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT/MON AM...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON-WED...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MON-MON NT...AND POSSIBLY PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY TUE-WED. AGAIN...SOME MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER APPROACH WITH SHOWERS...SO FOR NOW...ONLY INDICATING
LOW CHC POPS FOR MON...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR MON NT-TUE...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...AS FORECAST SHOWALTER
INDICES DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSUMING WE ARE CLOSE TO...OR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
WED...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
SCATTERED/DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY FOR MON-TUE...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS MUCH COOLER. FOR NOW...HAVE
INDICATED TEMPS MONDAY REACHING THE 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS/SHOWERS BE MORE
PREVALENT...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD OCCUR. MON NT/TUE AM MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. TUE MAXES SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE
RATHER WARM/HUMID FOR TUE NT INTO WED...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S IN VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 70S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUT TO SEA OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION.

EXPECT MAINLY CALM WINDS AT KALB/KPOU/KGFL...AND WESTERLY LESS
THAN 8 KTS AT KPSF THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 4 TO 6 KTS DURING THE REST OF THURSDAY MORNING...
BECOMING WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT
WITH DEW/FROST FORMATION.

WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR
30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...S-SW WINDS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY BE 5 TO 10 MPH. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IN RH IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS/DRY
CONDITIONS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
FRIDAY AFTN...DESPITE MUCH OF THE REGION BEING CONSIDERED IN THE
GREEN UP STAGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED...AS LOCAL
CLIMATE STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES BELOW NORMAL ON THE YEAR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/VTK
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 210538
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DECREASING WIND AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER...A CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FROST IN
OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WON/T BE QUITE AS COOL AS
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
START THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM UP FOR
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 119 AM EDT...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SINCE THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO CHILLY LEVELS FOR MID MAY...WITH MANY OUTLYING AREAS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. TEMPS IN THE CAPITAL REGION/HUDSON VALLEY
LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUTLYING/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THESE CHILLY
TEMPS...AS SENSITIVE AND YOUNG VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF
PROTECTIVE MEASURES ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM
UP QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR INTO
THE REGION. THERE WON/T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL THIS
SYSTEM...BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN.

TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CHILLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH
850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -5 DEGREES C. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL
QUICKLY.  THERE MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEREAFTER...THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INCREASES...ESP FOR LATE MON INTO WED...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS...ALLOWING SOME WARMTH AND MOISTURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THIS
TRANSITION...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE INCREASING CLOUD AND
SHOWER THREAT AS EARLY AS SUN NT OR MON...WHILE SEVERAL OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
DELAYED WITH THIS TRANSITION...KEEPING MOST OF MONDAY DRY...WITH THE
SHOWER THREAT HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON NT OR TUE AM.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-WED NT...AS
OUR REGION SHOULD BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

SO...FOR SAT-SUN NT...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...IN
CASE A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS SOME CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS FOR LATE SUN...BUT FOR NOW...HOLDING OFF ANY SLIGHT CHC
POPS UNTIL LATER SUN NT. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT...WITH
MAXES REACHING LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ON SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S IN
VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT/MON AM...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON-WED...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MON-MON NT...AND POSSIBLY PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY TUE-WED. AGAIN...SOME MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER APPROACH WITH SHOWERS...SO FOR NOW...ONLY INDICATING
LOW CHC POPS FOR MON...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR MON NT-TUE...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...AS FORECAST SHOWALTER
INDICES DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSUMING WE ARE CLOSE TO...OR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
WED...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
SCATTERED/DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY FOR MON-TUE...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS MUCH COOLER. FOR NOW...HAVE
INDICATED TEMPS MONDAY REACHING THE 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS/SHOWERS BE MORE
PREVALENT...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD OCCUR. MON NT/TUE AM MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. TUE MAXES SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE
RATHER WARM/HUMID FOR TUE NT INTO WED...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S IN VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 70S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUT TO SEA OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION.

EXPECT MAINLY CALM WINDS AT KALB/KPOU/KGFL...AND WESTERLY LESS
THAN 8 KTS AT KPSF THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 4 TO 6 KTS DURING THE REST OF THURSDAY MORNING...
BECOMING WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT
WITH DEW/FROST FORMATION.

WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR
30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...S-SW WINDS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY BE 5 TO 10 MPH. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IN RH IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS/DRY
CONDITIONS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
FRIDAY AFTN...DESPITE MUCH OF THE REGION BEING CONSIDERED IN THE
GREEN UP STAGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED...AS LOCAL
CLIMATE STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES BELOW NORMAL ON THE YEAR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/VTK
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 210538
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DECREASING WIND AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER...A CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FROST IN
OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WON/T BE QUITE AS COOL AS
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
START THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM UP FOR
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 119 AM EDT...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SINCE THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO CHILLY LEVELS FOR MID MAY...WITH MANY OUTLYING AREAS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. TEMPS IN THE CAPITAL REGION/HUDSON VALLEY
LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUTLYING/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THESE CHILLY
TEMPS...AS SENSITIVE AND YOUNG VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF
PROTECTIVE MEASURES ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM
UP QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR INTO
THE REGION. THERE WON/T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL THIS
SYSTEM...BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN.

TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CHILLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH
850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -5 DEGREES C. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL
QUICKLY.  THERE MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEREAFTER...THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INCREASES...ESP FOR LATE MON INTO WED...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS...ALLOWING SOME WARMTH AND MOISTURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THIS
TRANSITION...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE INCREASING CLOUD AND
SHOWER THREAT AS EARLY AS SUN NT OR MON...WHILE SEVERAL OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
DELAYED WITH THIS TRANSITION...KEEPING MOST OF MONDAY DRY...WITH THE
SHOWER THREAT HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON NT OR TUE AM.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-WED NT...AS
OUR REGION SHOULD BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

SO...FOR SAT-SUN NT...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...IN
CASE A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS SOME CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS FOR LATE SUN...BUT FOR NOW...HOLDING OFF ANY SLIGHT CHC
POPS UNTIL LATER SUN NT. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT...WITH
MAXES REACHING LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ON SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S IN
VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT/MON AM...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON-WED...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MON-MON NT...AND POSSIBLY PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY TUE-WED. AGAIN...SOME MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER APPROACH WITH SHOWERS...SO FOR NOW...ONLY INDICATING
LOW CHC POPS FOR MON...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR MON NT-TUE...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...AS FORECAST SHOWALTER
INDICES DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSUMING WE ARE CLOSE TO...OR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
WED...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
SCATTERED/DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY FOR MON-TUE...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS MUCH COOLER. FOR NOW...HAVE
INDICATED TEMPS MONDAY REACHING THE 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS/SHOWERS BE MORE
PREVALENT...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD OCCUR. MON NT/TUE AM MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. TUE MAXES SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE
RATHER WARM/HUMID FOR TUE NT INTO WED...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S IN VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 70S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUT TO SEA OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION.

EXPECT MAINLY CALM WINDS AT KALB/KPOU/KGFL...AND WESTERLY LESS
THAN 8 KTS AT KPSF THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 4 TO 6 KTS DURING THE REST OF THURSDAY MORNING...
BECOMING WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT
WITH DEW/FROST FORMATION.

WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR
30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...S-SW WINDS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY BE 5 TO 10 MPH. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IN RH IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS/DRY
CONDITIONS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
FRIDAY AFTN...DESPITE MUCH OF THE REGION BEING CONSIDERED IN THE
GREEN UP STAGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED...AS LOCAL
CLIMATE STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES BELOW NORMAL ON THE YEAR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/VTK
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 210538
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DECREASING WIND AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER...A CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FROST IN
OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WON/T BE QUITE AS COOL AS
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
START THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM UP FOR
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 119 AM EDT...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SINCE THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO CHILLY LEVELS FOR MID MAY...WITH MANY OUTLYING AREAS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. TEMPS IN THE CAPITAL REGION/HUDSON VALLEY
LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUTLYING/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THESE CHILLY
TEMPS...AS SENSITIVE AND YOUNG VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF
PROTECTIVE MEASURES ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM
UP QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR INTO
THE REGION. THERE WON/T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL THIS
SYSTEM...BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN.

TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CHILLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH
850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -5 DEGREES C. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL
QUICKLY.  THERE MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEREAFTER...THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INCREASES...ESP FOR LATE MON INTO WED...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS...ALLOWING SOME WARMTH AND MOISTURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THIS
TRANSITION...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE INCREASING CLOUD AND
SHOWER THREAT AS EARLY AS SUN NT OR MON...WHILE SEVERAL OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
DELAYED WITH THIS TRANSITION...KEEPING MOST OF MONDAY DRY...WITH THE
SHOWER THREAT HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON NT OR TUE AM.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-WED NT...AS
OUR REGION SHOULD BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

SO...FOR SAT-SUN NT...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...IN
CASE A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS SOME CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS FOR LATE SUN...BUT FOR NOW...HOLDING OFF ANY SLIGHT CHC
POPS UNTIL LATER SUN NT. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT...WITH
MAXES REACHING LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ON SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S IN
VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT/MON AM...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON-WED...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MON-MON NT...AND POSSIBLY PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY TUE-WED. AGAIN...SOME MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER APPROACH WITH SHOWERS...SO FOR NOW...ONLY INDICATING
LOW CHC POPS FOR MON...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR MON NT-TUE...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...AS FORECAST SHOWALTER
INDICES DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSUMING WE ARE CLOSE TO...OR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
WED...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
SCATTERED/DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY FOR MON-TUE...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS MUCH COOLER. FOR NOW...HAVE
INDICATED TEMPS MONDAY REACHING THE 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS/SHOWERS BE MORE
PREVALENT...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD OCCUR. MON NT/TUE AM MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. TUE MAXES SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE
RATHER WARM/HUMID FOR TUE NT INTO WED...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S IN VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 70S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUT TO SEA OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION.

EXPECT MAINLY CALM WINDS AT KALB/KPOU/KGFL...AND WESTERLY LESS
THAN 8 KTS AT KPSF THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 4 TO 6 KTS DURING THE REST OF THURSDAY MORNING...
BECOMING WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT
WITH DEW/FROST FORMATION.

WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR
30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...S-SW WINDS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY BE 5 TO 10 MPH. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IN RH IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS/DRY
CONDITIONS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
FRIDAY AFTN...DESPITE MUCH OF THE REGION BEING CONSIDERED IN THE
GREEN UP STAGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED...AS LOCAL
CLIMATE STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES BELOW NORMAL ON THE YEAR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/VTK
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1014 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. EARLY AM LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE LOW-MID 30S AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FROST DEVELOPMENT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH DRY/STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SKIES ARE INITIALLY CLEAR...BUT IR
IMAGERY AT 02Z SUGGESTS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE
SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST IN THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/ERN VT, AND IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO TERRAIN/LAKE
BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1014 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. EARLY AM LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE LOW-MID 30S AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FROST DEVELOPMENT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH DRY/STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SKIES ARE INITIALLY CLEAR...BUT IR
IMAGERY AT 02Z SUGGESTS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE
SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST IN THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/ERN VT, AND IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO TERRAIN/LAKE
BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1014 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. EARLY AM LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE LOW-MID 30S AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FROST DEVELOPMENT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH DRY/STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SKIES ARE INITIALLY CLEAR...BUT IR
IMAGERY AT 02Z SUGGESTS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE
SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST IN THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/ERN VT, AND IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 100-250 AGL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES MORE PREVALENT AT KRUT/KPBG DUE TO TERRAIN/LAKE
BREEZES. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG/MV



000
FXUS61 KALY 210519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DECREASING WIND AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER...A CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FROST IN
OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WON/T BE QUITE AS COOL AS
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
START THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM UP FOR
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 119 AM EDT...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SINCE THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO CHILLY LEVELS FOR MID MAY...WITH MANY OUTLYING AREAS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. TEMPS IN THE CAPITAL REGION/HUDSON VALLEY
LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUTLYING/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THESE CHILLY
TEMPS...AS SENSITIVE AND YOUNG VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF
PROTECTIVE MEASURES ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM
UP QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR INTO
THE REGION. THERE WON/T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL THIS
SYSTEM...BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN.

TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CHILLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH
850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -5 DEGREES C. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL
QUICKLY.  THERE MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEREAFTER...THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INCREASES...ESP FOR LATE MON INTO WED...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS...ALLOWING SOME WARMTH AND MOISTURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THIS
TRANSITION...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE INCREASING CLOUD AND
SHOWER THREAT AS EARLY AS SUN NT OR MON...WHILE SEVERAL OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
DELAYED WITH THIS TRANSITION...KEEPING MOST OF MONDAY DRY...WITH THE
SHOWER THREAT HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON NT OR TUE AM.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-WED NT...AS
OUR REGION SHOULD BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

SO...FOR SAT-SUN NT...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...IN
CASE A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS SOME CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS FOR LATE SUN...BUT FOR NOW...HOLDING OFF ANY SLIGHT CHC
POPS UNTIL LATER SUN NT. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT...WITH
MAXES REACHING LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ON SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S IN
VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT/MON AM...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON-WED...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MON-MON NT...AND POSSIBLY PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY TUE-WED. AGAIN...SOME MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER APPROACH WITH SHOWERS...SO FOR NOW...ONLY INDICATING
LOW CHC POPS FOR MON...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR MON NT-TUE...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...AS FORECAST SHOWALTER
INDICES DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSUMING WE ARE CLOSE TO...OR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
WED...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
SCATTERED/DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY FOR MON-TUE...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS MUCH COOLER. FOR NOW...HAVE
INDICATED TEMPS MONDAY REACHING THE 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS/SHOWERS BE MORE
PREVALENT...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD OCCUR. MON NT/TUE AM MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. TUE MAXES SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE
RATHER WARM/HUMID FOR TUE NT INTO WED...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S IN VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 70S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS TO DECREASE EARLY. EXPECT SCT HIGH-MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY THE
EARLY AM. CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN VFR LEVELS.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW AM/AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT
WITH DEW/FROST FORMATION.

WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR
30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...S-SW WINDS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY BE 5 TO 10 MPH. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IN RH IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS/DRY
CONDITIONS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
FRIDAY AFTN...DESPITE MUCH OF THE REGION BEING CONSIDERED IN THE
GREEN UP STAGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED...AS LOCAL
CLIMATE STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES BELOW NORMAL ON THE YEAR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/VTK
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 210519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DECREASING WIND AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER...A CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FROST IN
OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WON/T BE QUITE AS COOL AS
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
START THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM UP FOR
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 119 AM EDT...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SINCE THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO CHILLY LEVELS FOR MID MAY...WITH MANY OUTLYING AREAS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. TEMPS IN THE CAPITAL REGION/HUDSON VALLEY
LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUTLYING/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THESE CHILLY
TEMPS...AS SENSITIVE AND YOUNG VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF
PROTECTIVE MEASURES ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM
UP QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR INTO
THE REGION. THERE WON/T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL THIS
SYSTEM...BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN.

TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CHILLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH
850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -5 DEGREES C. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL
QUICKLY.  THERE MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEREAFTER...THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INCREASES...ESP FOR LATE MON INTO WED...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS...ALLOWING SOME WARMTH AND MOISTURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THIS
TRANSITION...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE INCREASING CLOUD AND
SHOWER THREAT AS EARLY AS SUN NT OR MON...WHILE SEVERAL OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
DELAYED WITH THIS TRANSITION...KEEPING MOST OF MONDAY DRY...WITH THE
SHOWER THREAT HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON NT OR TUE AM.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-WED NT...AS
OUR REGION SHOULD BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

SO...FOR SAT-SUN NT...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...IN
CASE A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS SOME CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS FOR LATE SUN...BUT FOR NOW...HOLDING OFF ANY SLIGHT CHC
POPS UNTIL LATER SUN NT. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT...WITH
MAXES REACHING LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ON SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S IN
VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT/MON AM...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON-WED...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MON-MON NT...AND POSSIBLY PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY TUE-WED. AGAIN...SOME MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER APPROACH WITH SHOWERS...SO FOR NOW...ONLY INDICATING
LOW CHC POPS FOR MON...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR MON NT-TUE...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...AS FORECAST SHOWALTER
INDICES DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSUMING WE ARE CLOSE TO...OR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
WED...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
SCATTERED/DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY FOR MON-TUE...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS MUCH COOLER. FOR NOW...HAVE
INDICATED TEMPS MONDAY REACHING THE 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS/SHOWERS BE MORE
PREVALENT...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD OCCUR. MON NT/TUE AM MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. TUE MAXES SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE
RATHER WARM/HUMID FOR TUE NT INTO WED...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S IN VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 70S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS TO DECREASE EARLY. EXPECT SCT HIGH-MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY THE
EARLY AM. CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN VFR LEVELS.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW AM/AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT
WITH DEW/FROST FORMATION.

WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR
30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...S-SW WINDS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY BE 5 TO 10 MPH. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IN RH IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS/DRY
CONDITIONS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
FRIDAY AFTN...DESPITE MUCH OF THE REGION BEING CONSIDERED IN THE
GREEN UP STAGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED...AS LOCAL
CLIMATE STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES BELOW NORMAL ON THE YEAR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/VTK
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 210519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DECREASING WIND AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER...A CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FROST IN
OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WON/T BE QUITE AS COOL AS
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
START THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM UP FOR
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 119 AM EDT...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SINCE THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO CHILLY LEVELS FOR MID MAY...WITH MANY OUTLYING AREAS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. TEMPS IN THE CAPITAL REGION/HUDSON VALLEY
LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUTLYING/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THESE CHILLY
TEMPS...AS SENSITIVE AND YOUNG VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF
PROTECTIVE MEASURES ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM
UP QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR INTO
THE REGION. THERE WON/T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL THIS
SYSTEM...BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN.

TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CHILLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH
850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -5 DEGREES C. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL
QUICKLY.  THERE MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEREAFTER...THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INCREASES...ESP FOR LATE MON INTO WED...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS...ALLOWING SOME WARMTH AND MOISTURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THIS
TRANSITION...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE INCREASING CLOUD AND
SHOWER THREAT AS EARLY AS SUN NT OR MON...WHILE SEVERAL OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
DELAYED WITH THIS TRANSITION...KEEPING MOST OF MONDAY DRY...WITH THE
SHOWER THREAT HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON NT OR TUE AM.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-WED NT...AS
OUR REGION SHOULD BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

SO...FOR SAT-SUN NT...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...IN
CASE A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS SOME CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS FOR LATE SUN...BUT FOR NOW...HOLDING OFF ANY SLIGHT CHC
POPS UNTIL LATER SUN NT. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT...WITH
MAXES REACHING LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ON SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S IN
VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT/MON AM...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON-WED...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MON-MON NT...AND POSSIBLY PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY TUE-WED. AGAIN...SOME MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER APPROACH WITH SHOWERS...SO FOR NOW...ONLY INDICATING
LOW CHC POPS FOR MON...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR MON NT-TUE...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...AS FORECAST SHOWALTER
INDICES DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSUMING WE ARE CLOSE TO...OR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
WED...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
SCATTERED/DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY FOR MON-TUE...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS MUCH COOLER. FOR NOW...HAVE
INDICATED TEMPS MONDAY REACHING THE 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS/SHOWERS BE MORE
PREVALENT...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD OCCUR. MON NT/TUE AM MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. TUE MAXES SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE
RATHER WARM/HUMID FOR TUE NT INTO WED...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S IN VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 70S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS TO DECREASE EARLY. EXPECT SCT HIGH-MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY THE
EARLY AM. CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN VFR LEVELS.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW AM/AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT
WITH DEW/FROST FORMATION.

WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR
30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...S-SW WINDS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY BE 5 TO 10 MPH. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IN RH IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS/DRY
CONDITIONS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
FRIDAY AFTN...DESPITE MUCH OF THE REGION BEING CONSIDERED IN THE
GREEN UP STAGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED...AS LOCAL
CLIMATE STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES BELOW NORMAL ON THE YEAR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/VTK
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210219
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1019 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1014 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. EARLY AM LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE LOW-MID 30S AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FROST DEVELOPMENT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH DRY/STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SKIES ARE INITIALLY CLEAR...BUT IR
IMAGERY AT 02Z SUGGESTS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE
SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST IN THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/ERN VT, AND IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED AND WILL LEAVE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND
RECENT DRY SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL POSSIBLE CEILINGS
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-
     010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210219
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1019 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1014 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. EARLY AM LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE LOW-MID 30S AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FROST DEVELOPMENT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH DRY/STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SKIES ARE INITIALLY CLEAR...BUT IR
IMAGERY AT 02Z SUGGESTS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE
SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST IN THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/ERN VT, AND IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED AND WILL LEAVE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND
RECENT DRY SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL POSSIBLE CEILINGS
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-
     010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210219
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1019 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1014 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. EARLY AM LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE LOW-MID 30S AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FROST DEVELOPMENT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH DRY/STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SKIES ARE INITIALLY CLEAR...BUT IR
IMAGERY AT 02Z SUGGESTS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE
SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST IN THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/ERN VT, AND IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED AND WILL LEAVE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND
RECENT DRY SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL POSSIBLE CEILINGS
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-
     010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210219
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1019 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1014 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. EARLY AM LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE LOW-MID 30S AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FROST DEVELOPMENT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH DRY/STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SKIES ARE INITIALLY CLEAR...BUT IR
IMAGERY AT 02Z SUGGESTS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE
SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST IN THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/ERN VT, AND IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED AND WILL LEAVE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND
RECENT DRY SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL POSSIBLE CEILINGS
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-
     010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV




000
FXUS61 KALY 210159
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
959 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DECREASING WIND AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER...A CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FROST IN
OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WON/T BE QUITE AS COOL AS
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
START THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM UP FOR
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARING FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. SOUTH OF KALB CLOUDS STILL HOLDING ON.
A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. HAVE
UPDATED TEMP/WIND/SKY TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.

THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL TONIGHT. SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THANKS TO A STRONG JET STREAK NEARBY.
DESPITE THESE CLOUDS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA...OVERNIGHT TEMPS
LOOK TO FALL TO CHILLY LEVELS FOR MID MAY...WITH MANY OUTLYING
AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. TEMPS IN THE CAPITAL
REGION/HUDSON VALLEY LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUTLYING/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THESE CHILLY
TEMPS...AS SENSITIVE AND YOUNG VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF
PROTECTIVE MEASURES ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM
UP QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR INTO
THE REGION. THERE WON/T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL THIS
SYSTEM...BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN.

TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CHILLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH
850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -5 DEGREES C. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL
QUICKLY.  THERE MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEREAFTER...THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INCREASES...ESP FOR LATE MON INTO WED...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS...ALLOWING SOME WARMTH AND MOISTURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THIS
TRANSITION...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE INCREASING CLOUD AND
SHOWER THREAT AS EARLY AS SUN NT OR MON...WHILE SEVERAL OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
DELAYED WITH THIS TRANSITION...KEEPING MOST OF MONDAY DRY...WITH THE
SHOWER THREAT HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON NT OR TUE AM.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-WED NT...AS
OUR REGION SHOULD BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

SO...FOR SAT-SUN NT...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...IN
CASE A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS SOME CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS FOR LATE SUN...BUT FOR NOW...HOLDING OFF ANY SLIGHT CHC
POPS UNTIL LATER SUN NT. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT...WITH
MAXES REACHING LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ON SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S IN
VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT/MON AM...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON-WED...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MON-MON NT...AND POSSIBLY PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY TUE-WED. AGAIN...SOME MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER APPROACH WITH SHOWERS...SO FOR NOW...ONLY INDICATING
LOW CHC POPS FOR MON...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR MON NT-TUE...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...AS FORECAST SHOWALTER
INDICES DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSUMING WE ARE CLOSE TO...OR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
WED...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
SCATTERED/DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY FOR MON-TUE...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS MUCH COOLER. FOR NOW...HAVE
INDICATED TEMPS MONDAY REACHING THE 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS/SHOWERS BE MORE
PREVALENT...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD OCCUR. MON NT/TUE AM MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. TUE MAXES SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE
RATHER WARM/HUMID FOR TUE NT INTO WED...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S IN VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 70S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS TO DECREASE EARLY. EXPECT SCT HIGH-MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY THE
EARLY AM. CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN VFR LEVELS.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW AM/AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT
WITH DEW/FROST FORMATION.

WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR
30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...S-SW WINDS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY BE 5 TO 10 MPH. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IN RH IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS/DRY
CONDITIONS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
FRIDAY AFTN...DESPITE MUCH OF THE REGION BEING CONSIDERED IN THE
GREEN UP STAGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED...AS LOCAL
CLIMATE STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES BELOW NORMAL ON THE YEAR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/VTK
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/VTK
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 210159
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
959 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DECREASING WIND AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER...A CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FROST IN
OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WON/T BE QUITE AS COOL AS
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
START THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM UP FOR
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARING FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. SOUTH OF KALB CLOUDS STILL HOLDING ON.
A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. HAVE
UPDATED TEMP/WIND/SKY TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.

THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL TONIGHT. SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THANKS TO A STRONG JET STREAK NEARBY.
DESPITE THESE CLOUDS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA...OVERNIGHT TEMPS
LOOK TO FALL TO CHILLY LEVELS FOR MID MAY...WITH MANY OUTLYING
AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. TEMPS IN THE CAPITAL
REGION/HUDSON VALLEY LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUTLYING/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THESE CHILLY
TEMPS...AS SENSITIVE AND YOUNG VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF
PROTECTIVE MEASURES ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM
UP QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR INTO
THE REGION. THERE WON/T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL THIS
SYSTEM...BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN.

TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CHILLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH
850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -5 DEGREES C. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL
QUICKLY.  THERE MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEREAFTER...THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INCREASES...ESP FOR LATE MON INTO WED...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS...ALLOWING SOME WARMTH AND MOISTURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THIS
TRANSITION...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE INCREASING CLOUD AND
SHOWER THREAT AS EARLY AS SUN NT OR MON...WHILE SEVERAL OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
DELAYED WITH THIS TRANSITION...KEEPING MOST OF MONDAY DRY...WITH THE
SHOWER THREAT HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON NT OR TUE AM.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-WED NT...AS
OUR REGION SHOULD BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

SO...FOR SAT-SUN NT...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...IN
CASE A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS SOME CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS FOR LATE SUN...BUT FOR NOW...HOLDING OFF ANY SLIGHT CHC
POPS UNTIL LATER SUN NT. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT...WITH
MAXES REACHING LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ON SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S IN
VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT/MON AM...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON-WED...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MON-MON NT...AND POSSIBLY PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY TUE-WED. AGAIN...SOME MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER APPROACH WITH SHOWERS...SO FOR NOW...ONLY INDICATING
LOW CHC POPS FOR MON...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR MON NT-TUE...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...AS FORECAST SHOWALTER
INDICES DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSUMING WE ARE CLOSE TO...OR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
WED...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
SCATTERED/DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY FOR MON-TUE...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS MUCH COOLER. FOR NOW...HAVE
INDICATED TEMPS MONDAY REACHING THE 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS/SHOWERS BE MORE
PREVALENT...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD OCCUR. MON NT/TUE AM MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. TUE MAXES SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE
RATHER WARM/HUMID FOR TUE NT INTO WED...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S IN VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 70S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS TO DECREASE EARLY. EXPECT SCT HIGH-MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY THE
EARLY AM. CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN VFR LEVELS.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW AM/AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT
WITH DEW/FROST FORMATION.

WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR
30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...S-SW WINDS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY BE 5 TO 10 MPH. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IN RH IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS/DRY
CONDITIONS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
FRIDAY AFTN...DESPITE MUCH OF THE REGION BEING CONSIDERED IN THE
GREEN UP STAGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED...AS LOCAL
CLIMATE STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES BELOW NORMAL ON THE YEAR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/VTK
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/VTK
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 210159
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
959 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DECREASING WIND AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER...A CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FROST IN
OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WON/T BE QUITE AS COOL AS
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
START THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM UP FOR
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARING FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. SOUTH OF KALB CLOUDS STILL HOLDING ON.
A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. HAVE
UPDATED TEMP/WIND/SKY TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.

THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL TONIGHT. SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THANKS TO A STRONG JET STREAK NEARBY.
DESPITE THESE CLOUDS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA...OVERNIGHT TEMPS
LOOK TO FALL TO CHILLY LEVELS FOR MID MAY...WITH MANY OUTLYING
AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. TEMPS IN THE CAPITAL
REGION/HUDSON VALLEY LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUTLYING/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THESE CHILLY
TEMPS...AS SENSITIVE AND YOUNG VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF
PROTECTIVE MEASURES ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM
UP QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR INTO
THE REGION. THERE WON/T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL THIS
SYSTEM...BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN.

TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CHILLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH
850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -5 DEGREES C. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL
QUICKLY.  THERE MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEREAFTER...THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INCREASES...ESP FOR LATE MON INTO WED...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS...ALLOWING SOME WARMTH AND MOISTURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THIS
TRANSITION...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE INCREASING CLOUD AND
SHOWER THREAT AS EARLY AS SUN NT OR MON...WHILE SEVERAL OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
DELAYED WITH THIS TRANSITION...KEEPING MOST OF MONDAY DRY...WITH THE
SHOWER THREAT HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON NT OR TUE AM.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-WED NT...AS
OUR REGION SHOULD BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

SO...FOR SAT-SUN NT...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...IN
CASE A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS SOME CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS FOR LATE SUN...BUT FOR NOW...HOLDING OFF ANY SLIGHT CHC
POPS UNTIL LATER SUN NT. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT...WITH
MAXES REACHING LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ON SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S IN
VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT/MON AM...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON-WED...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MON-MON NT...AND POSSIBLY PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY TUE-WED. AGAIN...SOME MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER APPROACH WITH SHOWERS...SO FOR NOW...ONLY INDICATING
LOW CHC POPS FOR MON...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR MON NT-TUE...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...AS FORECAST SHOWALTER
INDICES DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSUMING WE ARE CLOSE TO...OR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
WED...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
SCATTERED/DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY FOR MON-TUE...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS MUCH COOLER. FOR NOW...HAVE
INDICATED TEMPS MONDAY REACHING THE 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS/SHOWERS BE MORE
PREVALENT...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD OCCUR. MON NT/TUE AM MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. TUE MAXES SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE
RATHER WARM/HUMID FOR TUE NT INTO WED...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S IN VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 70S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS TO DECREASE EARLY. EXPECT SCT HIGH-MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY THE
EARLY AM. CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN VFR LEVELS.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW AM/AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT
WITH DEW/FROST FORMATION.

WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR
30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...S-SW WINDS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY BE 5 TO 10 MPH. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IN RH IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS/DRY
CONDITIONS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
FRIDAY AFTN...DESPITE MUCH OF THE REGION BEING CONSIDERED IN THE
GREEN UP STAGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED...AS LOCAL
CLIMATE STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES BELOW NORMAL ON THE YEAR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/VTK
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/VTK
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
751 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR MASS ADVECTING IN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WILL SEE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
PBL STABILIZATION. ANTICIPATE A FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z) PER SATELLITE AND
MODEL RH TRENDS...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000 FT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED AND WILL LEAVE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND
RECENT DRY SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL POSSIBLE CEILINGS
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 202351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
751 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR MASS ADVECTING IN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WILL SEE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
PBL STABILIZATION. ANTICIPATE A FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z) PER SATELLITE AND
MODEL RH TRENDS...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000 FT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED AND WILL LEAVE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND
RECENT DRY SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL POSSIBLE CEILINGS
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
751 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR MASS ADVECTING IN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WILL SEE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
PBL STABILIZATION. ANTICIPATE A FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z) PER SATELLITE AND
MODEL RH TRENDS...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000 FT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED AND WILL LEAVE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND
RECENT DRY SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL POSSIBLE CEILINGS
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
751 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR MASS ADVECTING IN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WILL SEE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
PBL STABILIZATION. ANTICIPATE A FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z) PER SATELLITE AND
MODEL RH TRENDS...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000 FT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED AND WILL LEAVE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND
RECENT DRY SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL POSSIBLE CEILINGS
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
751 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR MASS ADVECTING IN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WILL SEE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
PBL STABILIZATION. ANTICIPATE A FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z) PER SATELLITE AND
MODEL RH TRENDS...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000 FT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED AND WILL LEAVE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND
RECENT DRY SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL POSSIBLE CEILINGS
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
751 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR MASS ADVECTING IN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WILL SEE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
PBL STABILIZATION. ANTICIPATE A FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z) PER SATELLITE AND
MODEL RH TRENDS...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000 FT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED AND WILL LEAVE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND
RECENT DRY SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL POSSIBLE CEILINGS
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202341
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR MASS ADVECTING IN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WILL SEE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
PBL STABILIZATION. ANTICIPATE A FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z) PER SATELLITE AND
MODEL RH TRENDS...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000 FT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 202341
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR MASS ADVECTING IN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WILL SEE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
PBL STABILIZATION. ANTICIPATE A FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z) PER SATELLITE AND
MODEL RH TRENDS...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000 FT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202341
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR MASS ADVECTING IN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WILL SEE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
PBL STABILIZATION. ANTICIPATE A FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z) PER SATELLITE AND
MODEL RH TRENDS...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000 FT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202341
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR MASS ADVECTING IN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WILL SEE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
PBL STABILIZATION. ANTICIPATE A FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z) PER SATELLITE AND
MODEL RH TRENDS...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000 FT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202341
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR MASS ADVECTING IN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WILL SEE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
PBL STABILIZATION. ANTICIPATE A FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z) PER SATELLITE AND
MODEL RH TRENDS...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000 FT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202341
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR MASS ADVECTING IN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ON
GUSTY NW WINDS. WILL SEE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
PBL STABILIZATION. ANTICIPATE A FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z) PER SATELLITE AND
MODEL RH TRENDS...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000 FT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KALY 202335
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
735 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DECREASING WIND AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER...A CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FROST IN
OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WON/T BE QUITE AS COOL AS
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
START THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM UP FOR
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO DISSIPATE AND WINDS ARE
STARTING TO TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED TEMP/WIND/SKY TRENDS FOR THE
NEAR TERM.

THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THANKS TO A STRONG JET STREAK
NEARBY. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA...OVERNIGHT
TEMPS LOOK TO FALL TO CHILLY LEVELS FOR MID MAY...WITH MANY
OUTLYING AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. TEMPS IN THE CAPITAL
REGION/HUDSON VALLEY LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUTLYING/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THESE CHILLY
TEMPS...AS SENSITIVE AND YOUNG VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF
PROTECTIVE MEASURES ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM
UP QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR INTO
THE REGION. THERE WON/T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL THIS
SYSTEM...BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN.

TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CHILLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH
850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -5 DEGREES C. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL
QUICKLY.  THERE MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEREAFTER...THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INCREASES...ESP FOR LATE MON INTO WED...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS...ALLOWING SOME WARMTH AND MOISTURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THIS
TRANSITION...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE INCREASING CLOUD AND
SHOWER THREAT AS EARLY AS SUN NT OR MON...WHILE SEVERAL OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
DELAYED WITH THIS TRANSITION...KEEPING MOST OF MONDAY DRY...WITH THE
SHOWER THREAT HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON NT OR TUE AM.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-WED NT...AS
OUR REGION SHOULD BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

SO...FOR SAT-SUN NT...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...IN
CASE A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS SOME CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS FOR LATE SUN...BUT FOR NOW...HOLDING OFF ANY SLIGHT CHC
POPS UNTIL LATER SUN NT. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT...WITH
MAXES REACHING LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ON SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S IN
VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT/MON AM...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON-WED...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MON-MON NT...AND POSSIBLY PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY TUE-WED. AGAIN...SOME MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER APPROACH WITH SHOWERS...SO FOR NOW...ONLY INDICATING
LOW CHC POPS FOR MON...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR MON NT-TUE...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...AS FORECAST SHOWALTER
INDICES DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSUMING WE ARE CLOSE TO...OR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
WED...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
SCATTERED/DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY FOR MON-TUE...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS MUCH COOLER. FOR NOW...HAVE
INDICATED TEMPS MONDAY REACHING THE 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS/SHOWERS BE MORE
PREVALENT...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD OCCUR. MON NT/TUE AM MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. TUE MAXES SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE
RATHER WARM/HUMID FOR TUE NT INTO WED...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S IN VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 70S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS TO DECREASE EARLY. EXPECT SCT HIGH-MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY THE
EARLY AM. CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN VFR LEVELS.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW AM/AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT
WITH DEW/FROST FORMATION.

WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR
30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...S-SW WINDS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY BE 5 TO 10 MPH. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IN RH IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS/DRY
CONDITIONS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
FRIDAY AFTN...DESPITE MUCH OF THE REGION BEING CONSIDERED IN THE
GREEN UP STAGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED...AS LOCAL
CLIMATE STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES BELOW NORMAL ON THE YEAR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/VTK
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/VTK
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 202335
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
735 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DECREASING WIND AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER...A CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FROST IN
OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WON/T BE QUITE AS COOL AS
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
START THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM UP FOR
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO DISSIPATE AND WINDS ARE
STARTING TO TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED TEMP/WIND/SKY TRENDS FOR THE
NEAR TERM.

THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THANKS TO A STRONG JET STREAK
NEARBY. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA...OVERNIGHT
TEMPS LOOK TO FALL TO CHILLY LEVELS FOR MID MAY...WITH MANY
OUTLYING AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. TEMPS IN THE CAPITAL
REGION/HUDSON VALLEY LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUTLYING/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THESE CHILLY
TEMPS...AS SENSITIVE AND YOUNG VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF
PROTECTIVE MEASURES ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM
UP QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR INTO
THE REGION. THERE WON/T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL THIS
SYSTEM...BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN.

TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CHILLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH
850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -5 DEGREES C. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL
QUICKLY.  THERE MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEREAFTER...THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INCREASES...ESP FOR LATE MON INTO WED...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS...ALLOWING SOME WARMTH AND MOISTURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THIS
TRANSITION...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE INCREASING CLOUD AND
SHOWER THREAT AS EARLY AS SUN NT OR MON...WHILE SEVERAL OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
DELAYED WITH THIS TRANSITION...KEEPING MOST OF MONDAY DRY...WITH THE
SHOWER THREAT HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON NT OR TUE AM.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-WED NT...AS
OUR REGION SHOULD BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

SO...FOR SAT-SUN NT...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...IN
CASE A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS SOME CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS FOR LATE SUN...BUT FOR NOW...HOLDING OFF ANY SLIGHT CHC
POPS UNTIL LATER SUN NT. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT...WITH
MAXES REACHING LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ON SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S IN
VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT/MON AM...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON-WED...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MON-MON NT...AND POSSIBLY PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY TUE-WED. AGAIN...SOME MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER APPROACH WITH SHOWERS...SO FOR NOW...ONLY INDICATING
LOW CHC POPS FOR MON...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR MON NT-TUE...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...AS FORECAST SHOWALTER
INDICES DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSUMING WE ARE CLOSE TO...OR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
WED...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
SCATTERED/DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY FOR MON-TUE...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS MUCH COOLER. FOR NOW...HAVE
INDICATED TEMPS MONDAY REACHING THE 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS/SHOWERS BE MORE
PREVALENT...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD OCCUR. MON NT/TUE AM MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. TUE MAXES SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE
RATHER WARM/HUMID FOR TUE NT INTO WED...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S IN VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 70S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS TO DECREASE EARLY. EXPECT SCT HIGH-MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY THE
EARLY AM. CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN VFR LEVELS.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW AM/AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT
WITH DEW/FROST FORMATION.

WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR
30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...S-SW WINDS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY BE 5 TO 10 MPH. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IN RH IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS/DRY
CONDITIONS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
FRIDAY AFTN...DESPITE MUCH OF THE REGION BEING CONSIDERED IN THE
GREEN UP STAGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED...AS LOCAL
CLIMATE STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES BELOW NORMAL ON THE YEAR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/VTK
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/VTK
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 202335
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
735 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DECREASING WIND AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER...A CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FROST IN
OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WON/T BE QUITE AS COOL AS
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
START THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM UP FOR
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO DISSIPATE AND WINDS ARE
STARTING TO TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED TEMP/WIND/SKY TRENDS FOR THE
NEAR TERM.

THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THANKS TO A STRONG JET STREAK
NEARBY. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA...OVERNIGHT
TEMPS LOOK TO FALL TO CHILLY LEVELS FOR MID MAY...WITH MANY
OUTLYING AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. TEMPS IN THE CAPITAL
REGION/HUDSON VALLEY LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUTLYING/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THESE CHILLY
TEMPS...AS SENSITIVE AND YOUNG VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF
PROTECTIVE MEASURES ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM
UP QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR INTO
THE REGION. THERE WON/T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL THIS
SYSTEM...BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN.

TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CHILLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH
850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -5 DEGREES C. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL
QUICKLY.  THERE MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEREAFTER...THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INCREASES...ESP FOR LATE MON INTO WED...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS...ALLOWING SOME WARMTH AND MOISTURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THIS
TRANSITION...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE INCREASING CLOUD AND
SHOWER THREAT AS EARLY AS SUN NT OR MON...WHILE SEVERAL OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
DELAYED WITH THIS TRANSITION...KEEPING MOST OF MONDAY DRY...WITH THE
SHOWER THREAT HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON NT OR TUE AM.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-WED NT...AS
OUR REGION SHOULD BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

SO...FOR SAT-SUN NT...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...IN
CASE A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS SOME CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS FOR LATE SUN...BUT FOR NOW...HOLDING OFF ANY SLIGHT CHC
POPS UNTIL LATER SUN NT. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT...WITH
MAXES REACHING LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ON SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S IN
VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT/MON AM...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON-WED...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MON-MON NT...AND POSSIBLY PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY TUE-WED. AGAIN...SOME MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER APPROACH WITH SHOWERS...SO FOR NOW...ONLY INDICATING
LOW CHC POPS FOR MON...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR MON NT-TUE...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...AS FORECAST SHOWALTER
INDICES DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSUMING WE ARE CLOSE TO...OR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
WED...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
SCATTERED/DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY FOR MON-TUE...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS MUCH COOLER. FOR NOW...HAVE
INDICATED TEMPS MONDAY REACHING THE 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS/SHOWERS BE MORE
PREVALENT...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD OCCUR. MON NT/TUE AM MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. TUE MAXES SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE
RATHER WARM/HUMID FOR TUE NT INTO WED...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S IN VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 70S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS TO DECREASE EARLY. EXPECT SCT HIGH-MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY THE
EARLY AM. CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN VFR LEVELS.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW AM/AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT
WITH DEW/FROST FORMATION.

WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR
30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...S-SW WINDS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY BE 5 TO 10 MPH. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IN RH IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS/DRY
CONDITIONS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
FRIDAY AFTN...DESPITE MUCH OF THE REGION BEING CONSIDERED IN THE
GREEN UP STAGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED...AS LOCAL
CLIMATE STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES BELOW NORMAL ON THE YEAR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/VTK
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/VTK
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 202335
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
735 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DECREASING WIND AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER...A CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FROST IN
OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WON/T BE QUITE AS COOL AS
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
START THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM UP FOR
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO DISSIPATE AND WINDS ARE
STARTING TO TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED TEMP/WIND/SKY TRENDS FOR THE
NEAR TERM.

THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THANKS TO A STRONG JET STREAK
NEARBY. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA...OVERNIGHT
TEMPS LOOK TO FALL TO CHILLY LEVELS FOR MID MAY...WITH MANY
OUTLYING AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. TEMPS IN THE CAPITAL
REGION/HUDSON VALLEY LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUTLYING/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THESE CHILLY
TEMPS...AS SENSITIVE AND YOUNG VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF
PROTECTIVE MEASURES ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM
UP QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR INTO
THE REGION. THERE WON/T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL THIS
SYSTEM...BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN.

TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CHILLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH
850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -5 DEGREES C. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL
QUICKLY.  THERE MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEREAFTER...THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INCREASES...ESP FOR LATE MON INTO WED...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS...ALLOWING SOME WARMTH AND MOISTURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THIS
TRANSITION...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE INCREASING CLOUD AND
SHOWER THREAT AS EARLY AS SUN NT OR MON...WHILE SEVERAL OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
DELAYED WITH THIS TRANSITION...KEEPING MOST OF MONDAY DRY...WITH THE
SHOWER THREAT HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON NT OR TUE AM.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-WED NT...AS
OUR REGION SHOULD BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

SO...FOR SAT-SUN NT...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...IN
CASE A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS SOME CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS FOR LATE SUN...BUT FOR NOW...HOLDING OFF ANY SLIGHT CHC
POPS UNTIL LATER SUN NT. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT...WITH
MAXES REACHING LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ON SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S IN
VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT/MON AM...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON-WED...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MON-MON NT...AND POSSIBLY PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY TUE-WED. AGAIN...SOME MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER APPROACH WITH SHOWERS...SO FOR NOW...ONLY INDICATING
LOW CHC POPS FOR MON...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR MON NT-TUE...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...AS FORECAST SHOWALTER
INDICES DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSUMING WE ARE CLOSE TO...OR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
WED...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
SCATTERED/DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY FOR MON-TUE...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS MUCH COOLER. FOR NOW...HAVE
INDICATED TEMPS MONDAY REACHING THE 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS/SHOWERS BE MORE
PREVALENT...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD OCCUR. MON NT/TUE AM MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. TUE MAXES SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE
RATHER WARM/HUMID FOR TUE NT INTO WED...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S IN VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 70S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS TO DECREASE EARLY. EXPECT SCT HIGH-MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY THE
EARLY AM. CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN VFR LEVELS.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW AM/AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT
WITH DEW/FROST FORMATION.

WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR
30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...S-SW WINDS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY BE 5 TO 10 MPH. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IN RH IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS/DRY
CONDITIONS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
FRIDAY AFTN...DESPITE MUCH OF THE REGION BEING CONSIDERED IN THE
GREEN UP STAGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED...AS LOCAL
CLIMATE STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES BELOW NORMAL ON THE YEAR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/VTK
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/VTK
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202012
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE
SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM
THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO
DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS ARE SHOWING THAT FINALLY THE DRIER AIR
IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE
EAST. EXPECT THAT CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS WE GET INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. AS THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION, EVEN AS
LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE, WE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE SOME
SCATTERED TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL
HAMPER TO SOME DEGREE HOW COLD WE GET ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE WITHOUT CLOUDS WE WOULD LIKELY SEE
FREEZING TEMPS BUT WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL WE LIKELY
STAY ABOVE FREEZING. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000
FT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALSO STAY UP
IN THE 4-8KT RANGE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FROST
BUT I DO EXPECT THERE TO BE AREAS WHERE WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND
BECOME VERY LIGHT ALLOW FOR FROST TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202012
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE
SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM
THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO
DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS ARE SHOWING THAT FINALLY THE DRIER AIR
IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE
EAST. EXPECT THAT CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS WE GET INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. AS THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION, EVEN AS
LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE, WE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE SOME
SCATTERED TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL
HAMPER TO SOME DEGREE HOW COLD WE GET ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE WITHOUT CLOUDS WE WOULD LIKELY SEE
FREEZING TEMPS BUT WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL WE LIKELY
STAY ABOVE FREEZING. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000
FT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALSO STAY UP
IN THE 4-8KT RANGE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FROST
BUT I DO EXPECT THERE TO BE AREAS WHERE WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND
BECOME VERY LIGHT ALLOW FOR FROST TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY
QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE
FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND
ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM
SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KALY 202007
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
407 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DECREASING WIND AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER...A CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FROST IN
OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WON/T BE QUITE AS COOL AS
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
START THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM UP FOR
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT...A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION WITH 850 HPA TEMPS CLOSE TO ZERO. SOME LINGERING
STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE...BUT THEY SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE
BEEN GUSTY TODAY...WINDS WILL ALSO START TO LOWER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF MIXING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THANKS TO A STRONG
JET STREAK NEARBY. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS MOVING BACK INTO THE
AREA...OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK TO FALL TO CHILLY LEVELS FOR MID
MAY...WITH MANY OUTLYING AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. TEMPS
IN THE CAPITAL REGION/HUDSON VALLEY LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUTLYING/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THESE CHILLY
TEMPS...AS SENSITIVE AND YOUNG VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF
PROTECTIVE MEASURES ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM
UP QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR INTO
THE REGION. THERE WON/T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL THIS
SYSTEM...BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN.

TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CHILLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH
850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -5 DEGREES C. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL
QUICKLY.  THERE MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT AS WELL.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEREAFTER...THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INCREASES...ESP FOR LATE MON INTO WED...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS...ALLOWING SOME WARMTH AND MOISTURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THIS
TRANSITION...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE INCREASING CLOUD AND
SHOWER THREAT AS EARLY AS SUN NT OR MON...WHILE SEVERAL OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
DELAYED WITH THIS TRANSITION...KEEPING MOST OF MONDAY DRY...WITH THE
SHOWER THREAT HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON NT OR TUE AM.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-WED NT...AS
OUR REGION SHOULD BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

SO...FOR SAT-SUN NT...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...IN
CASE A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS SOME CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS FOR LATE SUN...BUT FOR NOW...HOLDING OFF ANY SLIGHT CHC
POPS UNTIL LATER SUN NT. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT...WITH
MAXES REACHING LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ON SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S IN
VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT/MON AM...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON-WED...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MON-MON NT...AND POSSIBLY PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY TUE-WED. AGAIN...SOME MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER APPROACH WITH SHOWERS...SO FOR NOW...ONLY INDICATING
LOW CHC POPS FOR MON...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR MON NT-TUE...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...AS FORECAST SHOWALTER
INDICES DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSUMING WE ARE CLOSE TO...OR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
WED...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
SCATTERED/DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY FOR MON-TUE...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS MUCH COOLER. FOR NOW...HAVE
INDICATED TEMPS MONDAY REACHING THE 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS/SHOWERS BE MORE
PREVALENT...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD OCCUR. MON NT/TUE AM MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. TUE MAXES SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE
RATHER WARM/HUMID FOR TUE NT INTO WED...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S IN VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 70S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TONIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH PASSES...CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CIGS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 3500-5000 FT AGL RANGE...BUT COULD
OCCASIONALLY DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT KPSF THROUGH 20Z/WED.
THEREAFTER...SKIES SHOULD TREND TOWARD MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FOR
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL
WITHIN VFR LEVELS.

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND TO 12-16 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL
BE AT KALB/KPSF WITH THE W-NW FLOW REGIME. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN TREND INTO THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THU MORNING AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT
WITH DEW/FROST FORMATION.

WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR
30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...S-SW WINDS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY BE 5 TO 10 MPH. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IN RH IS
EXCEPTEDFOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS/DRY
CONDITIONS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
FRIDAY AFTN...DESPITE MUCH OF THE REGION BEING CONSIDERED IN THE
GREEN UP STAGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED...AS LOCAL
CLIMATE STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES BELOW NORMAL ON THE YEAR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 202007
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
407 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DECREASING WIND AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER...A CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FROST IN
OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WON/T BE QUITE AS COOL AS
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
START THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM UP FOR
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT...A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION WITH 850 HPA TEMPS CLOSE TO ZERO. SOME LINGERING
STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE...BUT THEY SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE
BEEN GUSTY TODAY...WINDS WILL ALSO START TO LOWER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF MIXING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THANKS TO A STRONG
JET STREAK NEARBY. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS MOVING BACK INTO THE
AREA...OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK TO FALL TO CHILLY LEVELS FOR MID
MAY...WITH MANY OUTLYING AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. TEMPS
IN THE CAPITAL REGION/HUDSON VALLEY LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUTLYING/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THESE CHILLY
TEMPS...AS SENSITIVE AND YOUNG VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF
PROTECTIVE MEASURES ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM
UP QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR INTO
THE REGION. THERE WON/T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL THIS
SYSTEM...BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN.

TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CHILLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH
850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -5 DEGREES C. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL
QUICKLY.  THERE MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT AS WELL.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEREAFTER...THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INCREASES...ESP FOR LATE MON INTO WED...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS...ALLOWING SOME WARMTH AND MOISTURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THIS
TRANSITION...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE INCREASING CLOUD AND
SHOWER THREAT AS EARLY AS SUN NT OR MON...WHILE SEVERAL OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
DELAYED WITH THIS TRANSITION...KEEPING MOST OF MONDAY DRY...WITH THE
SHOWER THREAT HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON NT OR TUE AM.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-WED NT...AS
OUR REGION SHOULD BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

SO...FOR SAT-SUN NT...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...IN
CASE A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS SOME CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS FOR LATE SUN...BUT FOR NOW...HOLDING OFF ANY SLIGHT CHC
POPS UNTIL LATER SUN NT. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT...WITH
MAXES REACHING LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ON SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S IN
VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT/MON AM...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON-WED...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MON-MON NT...AND POSSIBLY PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY TUE-WED. AGAIN...SOME MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER APPROACH WITH SHOWERS...SO FOR NOW...ONLY INDICATING
LOW CHC POPS FOR MON...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR MON NT-TUE...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...AS FORECAST SHOWALTER
INDICES DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSUMING WE ARE CLOSE TO...OR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
WED...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
SCATTERED/DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY FOR MON-TUE...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS MUCH COOLER. FOR NOW...HAVE
INDICATED TEMPS MONDAY REACHING THE 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS/SHOWERS BE MORE
PREVALENT...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD OCCUR. MON NT/TUE AM MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. TUE MAXES SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE
RATHER WARM/HUMID FOR TUE NT INTO WED...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S IN VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 70S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TONIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH PASSES...CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CIGS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 3500-5000 FT AGL RANGE...BUT COULD
OCCASIONALLY DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT KPSF THROUGH 20Z/WED.
THEREAFTER...SKIES SHOULD TREND TOWARD MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FOR
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL
WITHIN VFR LEVELS.

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND TO 12-16 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL
BE AT KALB/KPSF WITH THE W-NW FLOW REGIME. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN TREND INTO THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THU MORNING AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT
WITH DEW/FROST FORMATION.

WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR
30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...S-SW WINDS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY BE 5 TO 10 MPH. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IN RH IS
EXCEPTEDFOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS/DRY
CONDITIONS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
FRIDAY AFTN...DESPITE MUCH OF THE REGION BEING CONSIDERED IN THE
GREEN UP STAGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED...AS LOCAL
CLIMATE STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES BELOW NORMAL ON THE YEAR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 202007
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
407 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DECREASING WIND AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER...A CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FROST IN
OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WON/T BE QUITE AS COOL AS
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
START THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM UP FOR
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT...A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION WITH 850 HPA TEMPS CLOSE TO ZERO. SOME LINGERING
STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE...BUT THEY SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE
BEEN GUSTY TODAY...WINDS WILL ALSO START TO LOWER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF MIXING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THANKS TO A STRONG
JET STREAK NEARBY. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS MOVING BACK INTO THE
AREA...OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK TO FALL TO CHILLY LEVELS FOR MID
MAY...WITH MANY OUTLYING AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. TEMPS
IN THE CAPITAL REGION/HUDSON VALLEY LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUTLYING/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THESE CHILLY
TEMPS...AS SENSITIVE AND YOUNG VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF
PROTECTIVE MEASURES ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM
UP QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR INTO
THE REGION. THERE WON/T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL THIS
SYSTEM...BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN.

TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CHILLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH
850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -5 DEGREES C. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL
QUICKLY.  THERE MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT AS WELL.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEREAFTER...THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INCREASES...ESP FOR LATE MON INTO WED...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS...ALLOWING SOME WARMTH AND MOISTURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THIS
TRANSITION...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE INCREASING CLOUD AND
SHOWER THREAT AS EARLY AS SUN NT OR MON...WHILE SEVERAL OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
DELAYED WITH THIS TRANSITION...KEEPING MOST OF MONDAY DRY...WITH THE
SHOWER THREAT HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON NT OR TUE AM.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-WED NT...AS
OUR REGION SHOULD BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

SO...FOR SAT-SUN NT...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...IN
CASE A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS SOME CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS FOR LATE SUN...BUT FOR NOW...HOLDING OFF ANY SLIGHT CHC
POPS UNTIL LATER SUN NT. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT...WITH
MAXES REACHING LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ON SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S IN
VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT/MON AM...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON-WED...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MON-MON NT...AND POSSIBLY PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY TUE-WED. AGAIN...SOME MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER APPROACH WITH SHOWERS...SO FOR NOW...ONLY INDICATING
LOW CHC POPS FOR MON...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR MON NT-TUE...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...AS FORECAST SHOWALTER
INDICES DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSUMING WE ARE CLOSE TO...OR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
WED...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
SCATTERED/DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY FOR MON-TUE...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS MUCH COOLER. FOR NOW...HAVE
INDICATED TEMPS MONDAY REACHING THE 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS/SHOWERS BE MORE
PREVALENT...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD OCCUR. MON NT/TUE AM MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. TUE MAXES SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE
RATHER WARM/HUMID FOR TUE NT INTO WED...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S IN VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 70S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TONIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH PASSES...CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CIGS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 3500-5000 FT AGL RANGE...BUT COULD
OCCASIONALLY DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT KPSF THROUGH 20Z/WED.
THEREAFTER...SKIES SHOULD TREND TOWARD MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FOR
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL
WITHIN VFR LEVELS.

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND TO 12-16 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL
BE AT KALB/KPSF WITH THE W-NW FLOW REGIME. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN TREND INTO THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THU MORNING AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT
WITH DEW/FROST FORMATION.

WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR
30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...S-SW WINDS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY BE 5 TO 10 MPH. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IN RH IS
EXCEPTEDFOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS/DRY
CONDITIONS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
FRIDAY AFTN...DESPITE MUCH OF THE REGION BEING CONSIDERED IN THE
GREEN UP STAGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED...AS LOCAL
CLIMATE STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES BELOW NORMAL ON THE YEAR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 202007
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
407 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DECREASING WIND AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER...A CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FROST IN
OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WON/T BE QUITE AS COOL AS
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
START THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM UP FOR
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT...A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION WITH 850 HPA TEMPS CLOSE TO ZERO. SOME LINGERING
STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE...BUT THEY SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE
BEEN GUSTY TODAY...WINDS WILL ALSO START TO LOWER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF MIXING AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THANKS TO A STRONG
JET STREAK NEARBY. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS MOVING BACK INTO THE
AREA...OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK TO FALL TO CHILLY LEVELS FOR MID
MAY...WITH MANY OUTLYING AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. TEMPS
IN THE CAPITAL REGION/HUDSON VALLEY LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUTLYING/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION DUE TO THESE CHILLY
TEMPS...AS SENSITIVE AND YOUNG VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF
PROTECTIVE MEASURES ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM
UP QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR INTO
THE REGION. THERE WON/T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL THIS
SYSTEM...BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR FRIDAY AFTN.

TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CHILLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH
850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -2 TO -5 DEGREES C. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL
QUICKLY.  THERE MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT AS WELL.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT RATHER TRANQUIL...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEREAFTER...THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INCREASES...ESP FOR LATE MON INTO WED...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS...ALLOWING SOME WARMTH AND MOISTURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THIS
TRANSITION...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE INCREASING CLOUD AND
SHOWER THREAT AS EARLY AS SUN NT OR MON...WHILE SEVERAL OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
DELAYED WITH THIS TRANSITION...KEEPING MOST OF MONDAY DRY...WITH THE
SHOWER THREAT HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON NT OR TUE AM.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-WED NT...AS
OUR REGION SHOULD BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

SO...FOR SAT-SUN NT...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...IN
CASE A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS SOME CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS FOR LATE SUN...BUT FOR NOW...HOLDING OFF ANY SLIGHT CHC
POPS UNTIL LATER SUN NT. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT...WITH
MAXES REACHING LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ON SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S IN
VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT/MON AM...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON-WED...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MON-MON NT...AND POSSIBLY PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY TUE-WED. AGAIN...SOME MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER APPROACH WITH SHOWERS...SO FOR NOW...ONLY INDICATING
LOW CHC POPS FOR MON...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR MON NT-TUE...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...AS FORECAST SHOWALTER
INDICES DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION.
ASSUMING WE ARE CLOSE TO...OR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
WED...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
SCATTERED/DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY FOR MON-TUE...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WHICH COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS MUCH COOLER. FOR NOW...HAVE
INDICATED TEMPS MONDAY REACHING THE 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS/SHOWERS BE MORE
PREVALENT...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COULD OCCUR. MON NT/TUE AM MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. TUE MAXES SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE
RATHER WARM/HUMID FOR TUE NT INTO WED...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S IN VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 70S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TONIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH PASSES...CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CIGS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 3500-5000 FT AGL RANGE...BUT COULD
OCCASIONALLY DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT KPSF THROUGH 20Z/WED.
THEREAFTER...SKIES SHOULD TREND TOWARD MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FOR
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL
WITHIN VFR LEVELS.

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND TO 12-16 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL
BE AT KALB/KPSF WITH THE W-NW FLOW REGIME. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN TREND INTO THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THU MORNING AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT
WITH DEW/FROST FORMATION.

WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR
30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...S-SW WINDS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY BE 5 TO 10 MPH. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IN RH IS
EXCEPTEDFOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS/DRY
CONDITIONS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
FRIDAY AFTN...DESPITE MUCH OF THE REGION BEING CONSIDERED IN THE
GREEN UP STAGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WON/T BE UNTIL AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED...AS LOCAL
CLIMATE STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES BELOW NORMAL ON THE YEAR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201956
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE
SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM
THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO
DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS ARE SHOWING THAT FINALLY THE DRIER AIR
IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE
EAST. EXPECT THAT CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS WE GET INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. AS THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION, EVEN AS
LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE, WE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE SOME
SCATTERED TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL
HAMPER TO SOME DEGREE HOW COLD WE GET ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE WITHOUT CLOUDS WE WOULD LIKELY SEE
FREEZING TEMPS BUT WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL WE LIKELY
STAY ABOVE FREEZING. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000
FT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALSO STAY UP
IN THE 4-8KT RANGE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FROST
BUT I DO EXPECT THERE TO BE AREAS WHERE WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND
BECOME VERY LIGHT ALLOW FOR FROST TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201956
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE
SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM
THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO
DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS ARE SHOWING THAT FINALLY THE DRIER AIR
IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE
EAST. EXPECT THAT CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS WE GET INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. AS THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION, EVEN AS
LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE, WE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE SOME
SCATTERED TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL
HAMPER TO SOME DEGREE HOW COLD WE GET ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE WITHOUT CLOUDS WE WOULD LIKELY SEE
FREEZING TEMPS BUT WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL WE LIKELY
STAY ABOVE FREEZING. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000
FT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALSO STAY UP
IN THE 4-8KT RANGE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FROST
BUT I DO EXPECT THERE TO BE AREAS WHERE WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND
BECOME VERY LIGHT ALLOW FOR FROST TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 201956
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE
SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM
THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO
DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS ARE SHOWING THAT FINALLY THE DRIER AIR
IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE
EAST. EXPECT THAT CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS WE GET INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. AS THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION, EVEN AS
LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE, WE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE SOME
SCATTERED TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL
HAMPER TO SOME DEGREE HOW COLD WE GET ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE WITHOUT CLOUDS WE WOULD LIKELY SEE
FREEZING TEMPS BUT WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL WE LIKELY
STAY ABOVE FREEZING. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000
FT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALSO STAY UP
IN THE 4-8KT RANGE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FROST
BUT I DO EXPECT THERE TO BE AREAS WHERE WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND
BECOME VERY LIGHT ALLOW FOR FROST TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201956
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE
SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM
THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO
DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNPROTECTED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS ARE SHOWING THAT FINALLY THE DRIER AIR
IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE
EAST. EXPECT THAT CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS WE GET INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. AS THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION, EVEN AS
LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE, WE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE SOME
SCATTERED TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL
HAMPER TO SOME DEGREE HOW COLD WE GET ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE WITHOUT CLOUDS WE WOULD LIKELY SEE
FREEZING TEMPS BUT WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL WE LIKELY
STAY ABOVE FREEZING. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000
FT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALSO STAY UP
IN THE 4-8KT RANGE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FROST
BUT I DO EXPECT THERE TO BE AREAS WHERE WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND
BECOME VERY LIGHT ALLOW FOR FROST TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT
PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER.
THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE
SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR
FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET
THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN
THE MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 201758
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
158 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND CREATE SOME FROST OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH TO UPDATE IN THE NEAR TERM.
THE CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED LONGER THAN THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATED. THATS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHICH IS CAUSING THE CUMULUS FIELD TO HOLD ON TO THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE DRIER AIR IS STILL LOCATED JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND WITH 925MB FLOW BLOWING WEST
NORTHWEST EXPECT THAT DRY AIR TO SLOWLY ERODE THE CURRENT CLOUD
COVER LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT
HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THUS THE FORECASTED
LOW 50S TO MID 50S LOOK REAL GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1024 AM WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE LIGHT
RADAR ECHOS HAVE GONE AWAY SO I WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. A DRY SLOT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MID MORNING. EXPECT WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE VALLEYS BY AROUND
NOON TO 1 PM. THE ONLY OTHER SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE
WINDS. MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH A
RELATIVELY MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. I WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE WINDS AND GUSTS
FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE GREENS WHERE GUST TO 15-25 ARE
BEING REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED
SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 418 AM WEDNESDAY...THE CLEARING TREND
CONTINUES AND WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
TO THE POINT WHERE SOME FROST MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT COULD LIMIT THE
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY AND CREATING WIDESPREAD
FROST. SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR NOW IN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMALS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND THIS
SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 412 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY. WHILE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A
BIT THIS MORNING, THEY ARE FORECAST TO PICK BACK UP TO 15 TO 25
KNOTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED,
CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE OPEN WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OPERATING ON THE LAKE TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON/DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 201758
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
158 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND CREATE SOME FROST OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH TO UPDATE IN THE NEAR TERM.
THE CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED LONGER THAN THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATED. THATS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHICH IS CAUSING THE CUMULUS FIELD TO HOLD ON TO THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE DRIER AIR IS STILL LOCATED JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND WITH 925MB FLOW BLOWING WEST
NORTHWEST EXPECT THAT DRY AIR TO SLOWLY ERODE THE CURRENT CLOUD
COVER LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT
HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THUS THE FORECASTED
LOW 50S TO MID 50S LOOK REAL GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1024 AM WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE LIGHT
RADAR ECHOS HAVE GONE AWAY SO I WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. A DRY SLOT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MID MORNING. EXPECT WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE VALLEYS BY AROUND
NOON TO 1 PM. THE ONLY OTHER SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE
WINDS. MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH A
RELATIVELY MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. I WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE WINDS AND GUSTS
FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE GREENS WHERE GUST TO 15-25 ARE
BEING REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED
SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 418 AM WEDNESDAY...THE CLEARING TREND
CONTINUES AND WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
TO THE POINT WHERE SOME FROST MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT COULD LIMIT THE
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY AND CREATING WIDESPREAD
FROST. SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR NOW IN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMALS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND THIS
SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS
PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND
BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY
SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 412 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY. WHILE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A
BIT THIS MORNING, THEY ARE FORECAST TO PICK BACK UP TO 15 TO 25
KNOTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED,
CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE OPEN WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OPERATING ON THE LAKE TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON/DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201743
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND CREATE SOME FROST OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH TO UPDATE IN THE NEAR TERM.
THE CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED LONGER THAN THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATED. THATS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHICH IS CAUSING THE CUMULUS FIELD TO HOLD ON TO THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE DRIER AIR IS STILL LOCATED JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND WITH 925MB FLOW BLOWING WEST
NORTHWEST EXPECT THAT DRY AIR TO SLOWLY ERODE THE CURRENT CLOUD
COVER LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT
HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THUS THE FORECASTED
LOW 50S TO MID 50S LOOK REAL GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1024 AM WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE LIGHT
RADAR ECHOS HAVE GONE AWAY SO I WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. A DRY SLOT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MID MORNING. EXPECT WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE VALLEYS BY AROUND
NOON TO 1 PM. THE ONLY OTHER SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE
WINDS. MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH A
RELATIVELY MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. I WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE WINDS AND GUSTS
FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE GREENS WHERE GUST TO 15-25 ARE
BEING REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED
SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 418 AM WEDNESDAY...THE CLEARING TREND
CONTINUES AND WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
TO THE POINT WHERE SOME FROST MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT COULD LIMIT THE
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY AND CREATING WIDESPREAD
FROST. SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR NOW IN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMALS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND THIS
SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN-OVC VFR DECK AROUND 050-060KFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR THROUGH 14Z, THEN
TREND TO SCT-BKN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SKC BY 00Z. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 18-25KTS THROUGH THE DAY, BUT ABATE AFTER 00Z TO AROUND
3-6KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SATURDAY - 12Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH A COLD FRONT MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 412 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY. WHILE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A
BIT THIS MORNING, THEY ARE FORECAST TO PICK BACK UP TO 15 TO 25
KNOTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED,
CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE OPEN WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OPERATING ON THE LAKE TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON/DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 201743
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND CREATE SOME FROST OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH TO UPDATE IN THE NEAR TERM.
THE CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED LONGER THAN THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATED. THATS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHICH IS CAUSING THE CUMULUS FIELD TO HOLD ON TO THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE DRIER AIR IS STILL LOCATED JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND WITH 925MB FLOW BLOWING WEST
NORTHWEST EXPECT THAT DRY AIR TO SLOWLY ERODE THE CURRENT CLOUD
COVER LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT
HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THUS THE FORECASTED
LOW 50S TO MID 50S LOOK REAL GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1024 AM WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE LIGHT
RADAR ECHOS HAVE GONE AWAY SO I WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. A DRY SLOT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MID MORNING. EXPECT WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE VALLEYS BY AROUND
NOON TO 1 PM. THE ONLY OTHER SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE
WINDS. MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH A
RELATIVELY MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. I WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE WINDS AND GUSTS
FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE GREENS WHERE GUST TO 15-25 ARE
BEING REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED
SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 418 AM WEDNESDAY...THE CLEARING TREND
CONTINUES AND WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
TO THE POINT WHERE SOME FROST MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT COULD LIMIT THE
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY AND CREATING WIDESPREAD
FROST. SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR NOW IN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMALS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND THIS
SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN-OVC VFR DECK AROUND 050-060KFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR THROUGH 14Z, THEN
TREND TO SCT-BKN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SKC BY 00Z. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 18-25KTS THROUGH THE DAY, BUT ABATE AFTER 00Z TO AROUND
3-6KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SATURDAY - 12Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH A COLD FRONT MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 412 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY. WHILE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A
BIT THIS MORNING, THEY ARE FORECAST TO PICK BACK UP TO 15 TO 25
KNOTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED,
CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE OPEN WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OPERATING ON THE LAKE TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON/DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 201743
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND CREATE SOME FROST OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH TO UPDATE IN THE NEAR TERM.
THE CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED LONGER THAN THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATED. THATS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHICH IS CAUSING THE CUMULUS FIELD TO HOLD ON TO THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE DRIER AIR IS STILL LOCATED JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND WITH 925MB FLOW BLOWING WEST
NORTHWEST EXPECT THAT DRY AIR TO SLOWLY ERODE THE CURRENT CLOUD
COVER LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT
HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THUS THE FORECASTED
LOW 50S TO MID 50S LOOK REAL GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1024 AM WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE LIGHT
RADAR ECHOS HAVE GONE AWAY SO I WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. A DRY SLOT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MID MORNING. EXPECT WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE VALLEYS BY AROUND
NOON TO 1 PM. THE ONLY OTHER SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE
WINDS. MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH A
RELATIVELY MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. I WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE WINDS AND GUSTS
FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE GREENS WHERE GUST TO 15-25 ARE
BEING REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED
SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 418 AM WEDNESDAY...THE CLEARING TREND
CONTINUES AND WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
TO THE POINT WHERE SOME FROST MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT COULD LIMIT THE
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY AND CREATING WIDESPREAD
FROST. SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR NOW IN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMALS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND THIS
SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN-OVC VFR DECK AROUND 050-060KFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR THROUGH 14Z, THEN
TREND TO SCT-BKN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SKC BY 00Z. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 18-25KTS THROUGH THE DAY, BUT ABATE AFTER 00Z TO AROUND
3-6KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SATURDAY - 12Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH A COLD FRONT MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 412 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY. WHILE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A
BIT THIS MORNING, THEY ARE FORECAST TO PICK BACK UP TO 15 TO 25
KNOTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED,
CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE OPEN WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OPERATING ON THE LAKE TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON/DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 201743
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND CREATE SOME FROST OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH TO UPDATE IN THE NEAR TERM.
THE CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED LONGER THAN THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATED. THATS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHICH IS CAUSING THE CUMULUS FIELD TO HOLD ON TO THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE DRIER AIR IS STILL LOCATED JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND WITH 925MB FLOW BLOWING WEST
NORTHWEST EXPECT THAT DRY AIR TO SLOWLY ERODE THE CURRENT CLOUD
COVER LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT
HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THUS THE FORECASTED
LOW 50S TO MID 50S LOOK REAL GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1024 AM WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE LIGHT
RADAR ECHOS HAVE GONE AWAY SO I WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. A DRY SLOT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MID MORNING. EXPECT WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE VALLEYS BY AROUND
NOON TO 1 PM. THE ONLY OTHER SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE
WINDS. MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH A
RELATIVELY MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. I WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE WINDS AND GUSTS
FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE GREENS WHERE GUST TO 15-25 ARE
BEING REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED
SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 418 AM WEDNESDAY...THE CLEARING TREND
CONTINUES AND WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
TO THE POINT WHERE SOME FROST MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT COULD LIMIT THE
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY AND CREATING WIDESPREAD
FROST. SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR NOW IN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMALS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND THIS
SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT
SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN-OVC VFR DECK AROUND 050-060KFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR THROUGH 14Z, THEN
TREND TO SCT-BKN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SKC BY 00Z. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 18-25KTS THROUGH THE DAY, BUT ABATE AFTER 00Z TO AROUND
3-6KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SATURDAY - 12Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH A COLD FRONT MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 412 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY. WHILE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A
BIT THIS MORNING, THEY ARE FORECAST TO PICK BACK UP TO 15 TO 25
KNOTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED,
CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE OPEN WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OPERATING ON THE LAKE TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON/DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 201743
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND CREATE SOME FROST OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH TO UPDATE IN THE NEAR TERM.
THE CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED LONGER THAN THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATED. THATS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHICH IS CAUSING THE CUMULUS FIELD TO HOLD ON TO THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE DRIER AIR IS STILL LOCATED JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND WITH 925MB FLOW BLOWING WEST
NORTHWEST EXPECT THAT DRY AIR TO SLOWLY ERODE THE CURRENT CLOUD
COVER LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT
HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THUS THE FORECASTED
LOW 50S TO MID 50S LOOK REAL GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1024 AM WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE LIGHT
RADAR ECHOS HAVE GONE AWAY SO I WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. A DRY SLOT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MID MORNING. EXPECT WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE VALLEYS BY AROUND
NOON TO 1 PM. THE ONLY OTHER SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE
WINDS. MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH A
RELATIVELY MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. I WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE WINDS AND GUSTS
FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE GREENS WHERE GUST TO 15-25 ARE
BEING REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED
SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 418 AM WEDNESDAY...THE CLEARING TREND
CONTINUES AND WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
TO THE POINT WHERE SOME FROST MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT COULD LIMIT THE
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY AND CREATING WIDESPREAD
FROST. SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR NOW IN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMALS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND THIS
SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE
WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS
PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL
START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN
THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS
IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION
WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE
ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OU