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000
FXUS61 KBTV 210959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
459 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOW
REMAINS WEAK TODAY...THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL TOUGH
TO FIGURE OUT...LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THINK
WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 20S ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...COOLER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND WARMER SOUTH. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES IN VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROPOFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT COMBINED
WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER
GUAGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE SOME
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME
DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT MOST
SITES EXCEPT RUT/MPV WHERE MVFR EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...AREAS WITH IFR IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
459 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOW
REMAINS WEAK TODAY...THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL TOUGH
TO FIGURE OUT...LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THINK
WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 20S ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...COOLER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND WARMER SOUTH. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES IN VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROPOFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT COMBINED
WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER
GUAGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE SOME
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME
DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT MOST
SITES EXCEPT RUT/MPV WHERE MVFR EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...AREAS WITH IFR IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 210924
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS...ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW
LEVELS...AREA RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS AROUND AN INCH IN SOME PLACES BEFORE
SNOW DECREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SOME FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS
AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS
GENERALLY EITHER MVFR OR VFR. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES BEFORE SUNRISE...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
RANGE FOR ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING FOR MAINLY KPSF AND POSSIBLY KPOU BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
BEST CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER
ELEVATION SITE KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR IN -SN IS MENTIONED
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT THIS TIME ONLY FLURRIES EXPECTED AT KPOU WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER
NORTH AROUND KALB/KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THESE SITES.
ANY -SN WILL END BY AROUND 18Z...AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. CIGS IN MVFR/VFR RANGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO
30.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 210924
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS...ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW
LEVELS...AREA RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS AROUND AN INCH IN SOME PLACES BEFORE
SNOW DECREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SOME FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS
AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS
GENERALLY EITHER MVFR OR VFR. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES BEFORE SUNRISE...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
RANGE FOR ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING FOR MAINLY KPSF AND POSSIBLY KPOU BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
BEST CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER
ELEVATION SITE KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR IN -SN IS MENTIONED
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT THIS TIME ONLY FLURRIES EXPECTED AT KPOU WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER
NORTH AROUND KALB/KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THESE SITES.
ANY -SN WILL END BY AROUND 18Z...AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. CIGS IN MVFR/VFR RANGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO
30.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 210858
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOW
REMAINS WEAK TODAY...THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL TOUGH
TO FIGURE OUT...LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THINK
WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 20S ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...COOLER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND WARMER SOUTH. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES IN VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
WEAK TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF
STRATUS UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME TIME
AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS MIXING
DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF
TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH REDUCTIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY BR. EXPECT MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210858
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOW
REMAINS WEAK TODAY...THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL TOUGH
TO FIGURE OUT...LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THINK
WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 20S ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...COOLER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND WARMER SOUTH. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES IN VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
WEAK TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF
STRATUS UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME TIME
AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS MIXING
DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF
TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH REDUCTIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY BR. EXPECT MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210858
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOW
REMAINS WEAK TODAY...THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL TOUGH
TO FIGURE OUT...LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THINK
WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 20S ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...COOLER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND WARMER SOUTH. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES IN VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
WEAK TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF
STRATUS UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME TIME
AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS MIXING
DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF
TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH REDUCTIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY BR. EXPECT MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210858
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOW
REMAINS WEAK TODAY...THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL TOUGH
TO FIGURE OUT...LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THINK
WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 20S ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...COOLER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND WARMER SOUTH. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES IN VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
WEAK TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF
STRATUS UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME TIME
AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS MIXING
DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF
TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH REDUCTIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY BR. EXPECT MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210601
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
101 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1206 AM EST SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER
AND MIN TEMPS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CLOUDS STILL ON
TRACK TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH AS LIGHT RETURN FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO PRIOR FORECAST...THOUGH A TAD MILDER SOUTH WHERE
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL BE GREATEST TONIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
WEAK TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF
STRATUS UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME TIME
AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS MIXING
DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF
TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH REDUCTIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY BR. EXPECT MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210601
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
101 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1206 AM EST SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER
AND MIN TEMPS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CLOUDS STILL ON
TRACK TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH AS LIGHT RETURN FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO PRIOR FORECAST...THOUGH A TAD MILDER SOUTH WHERE
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL BE GREATEST TONIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
WEAK TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF
STRATUS UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME TIME
AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS MIXING
DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF
TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH REDUCTIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY BR. EXPECT MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210601
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
101 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1206 AM EST SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER
AND MIN TEMPS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CLOUDS STILL ON
TRACK TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH AS LIGHT RETURN FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO PRIOR FORECAST...THOUGH A TAD MILDER SOUTH WHERE
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL BE GREATEST TONIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
WEAK TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF
STRATUS UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME TIME
AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS MIXING
DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF
TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH REDUCTIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY BR. EXPECT MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210601
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
101 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1206 AM EST SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER
AND MIN TEMPS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CLOUDS STILL ON
TRACK TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH AS LIGHT RETURN FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO PRIOR FORECAST...THOUGH A TAD MILDER SOUTH WHERE
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL BE GREATEST TONIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
WEAK TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF
STRATUS UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME TIME
AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS MIXING
DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF
TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH REDUCTIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY BR. EXPECT MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KALY 210545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA RADARS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME FLOW IN UPPER AIR DATA AND RADAR
DATA SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE COULD STILL BUILD WEST INTO THE
BERKSHIRES TOWARD SUNRISE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO
MAYBE BRIEFLY SCATTERED BUT TIMING LOOKS LATER...SO ADJUSTED
CHANCES AND TIMING FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ANY
FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BUILD INTO EASTERN
NY...BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS TO BE SURE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WELL...AS
CLOUDY SKY SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS
GENERALLY EITHER MVFR OR VFR. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES BEFORE SUNRISE...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
RANGE FOR ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING FOR MAINLY KPSF AND POSSIBLY KPOU BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
BEST CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER
ELEVATION SITE KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR IN -SN IS MENTIONED
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT THIS TIME ONLY FLURRIES EXPECTED AT KPOU WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER
NORTH AROUND KALB/KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THESE SITES.
ANY -SN WILL END BY AROUND 18Z...AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. CIGS IN MVFR/VFR RANGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 210545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA RADARS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME FLOW IN UPPER AIR DATA AND RADAR
DATA SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE COULD STILL BUILD WEST INTO THE
BERKSHIRES TOWARD SUNRISE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO
MAYBE BRIEFLY SCATTERED BUT TIMING LOOKS LATER...SO ADJUSTED
CHANCES AND TIMING FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ANY
FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BUILD INTO EASTERN
NY...BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS TO BE SURE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WELL...AS
CLOUDY SKY SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS
GENERALLY EITHER MVFR OR VFR. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES BEFORE SUNRISE...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
RANGE FOR ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING FOR MAINLY KPSF AND POSSIBLY KPOU BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
BEST CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER
ELEVATION SITE KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR IN -SN IS MENTIONED
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT THIS TIME ONLY FLURRIES EXPECTED AT KPOU WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER
NORTH AROUND KALB/KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THESE SITES.
ANY -SN WILL END BY AROUND 18Z...AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. CIGS IN MVFR/VFR RANGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 210513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1213 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA RADARS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME FLOW IN UPPER AIR DATA AND RADAR
DATA SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE COULD STILL BUILD WEST INTO THE
BERKSHIRES TOWARD SUNRISE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO
MAYBE BRIEFLY SCATTERED BUT TIMING LOOKS LATER...SO ADJUSTED
CHANCES AND TIMING FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ANY
FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BUILD INTO EASTERN
NY...BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS TO BE SURE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WELL...AS
CLOUDY SKY SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 210513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1213 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA RADARS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME FLOW IN UPPER AIR DATA AND RADAR
DATA SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE COULD STILL BUILD WEST INTO THE
BERKSHIRES TOWARD SUNRISE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO
MAYBE BRIEFLY SCATTERED BUT TIMING LOOKS LATER...SO ADJUSTED
CHANCES AND TIMING FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ANY
FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BUILD INTO EASTERN
NY...BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS TO BE SURE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WELL...AS
CLOUDY SKY SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 210513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1213 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA RADARS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME FLOW IN UPPER AIR DATA AND RADAR
DATA SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE COULD STILL BUILD WEST INTO THE
BERKSHIRES TOWARD SUNRISE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO
MAYBE BRIEFLY SCATTERED BUT TIMING LOOKS LATER...SO ADJUSTED
CHANCES AND TIMING FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ANY
FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BUILD INTO EASTERN
NY...BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS TO BE SURE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WELL...AS
CLOUDY SKY SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 210513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1213 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA RADARS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME FLOW IN UPPER AIR DATA AND RADAR
DATA SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE COULD STILL BUILD WEST INTO THE
BERKSHIRES TOWARD SUNRISE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO
MAYBE BRIEFLY SCATTERED BUT TIMING LOOKS LATER...SO ADJUSTED
CHANCES AND TIMING FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ANY
FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BUILD INTO EASTERN
NY...BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS TO BE SURE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WELL...AS
CLOUDY SKY SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KBTV 210507
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1207 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1206 AM EST SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER
AND MIN TEMPS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CLOUDS STILL ON
TRACK TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH AS LIGHT RETURN FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO PRIOR FORECAST...THOUGH A TAD MILDER SOUTH WHERE
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL BE GREATEST TONIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
WEAK TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF
STRATUS UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME TIME
AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS MIXING
DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF
TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES (VFR/MVFR/LOCAL IFR
DUE TO CEILINGS) THRU 03Z AND THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR AFTER
THAT POINT.

SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REVEALS AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WORKING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST/SOUTH ALONG THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER. WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL HELP
ADVECT IFR CEILINGS AT MSS AND PERHAPS TEMPORARILY AT BTV (PER 555
PM FSO OBSERVATION), WITH OTHER SITES MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT
03Z.

AFTER 03Z, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS AS STRATUS LAYER OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHWARD, OCCURRING THE LATEST AT BTV. LIGHT BL
WINDS ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST AT TIMES IN THE
STRATUS. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THESE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT...BUT
THINKING NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY (AROUND 17Z MSS AND
BETWEEN 20-00Z REST OF THE TAFS). WINDS TO STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210507
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1207 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1206 AM EST SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER
AND MIN TEMPS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CLOUDS STILL ON
TRACK TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH AS LIGHT RETURN FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO PRIOR FORECAST...THOUGH A TAD MILDER SOUTH WHERE
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL BE GREATEST TONIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
WEAK TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF
STRATUS UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME TIME
AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS MIXING
DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF
TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES (VFR/MVFR/LOCAL IFR
DUE TO CEILINGS) THRU 03Z AND THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR AFTER
THAT POINT.

SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REVEALS AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WORKING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST/SOUTH ALONG THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER. WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL HELP
ADVECT IFR CEILINGS AT MSS AND PERHAPS TEMPORARILY AT BTV (PER 555
PM FSO OBSERVATION), WITH OTHER SITES MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT
03Z.

AFTER 03Z, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS AS STRATUS LAYER OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHWARD, OCCURRING THE LATEST AT BTV. LIGHT BL
WINDS ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST AT TIMES IN THE
STRATUS. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THESE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT...BUT
THINKING NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY (AROUND 17Z MSS AND
BETWEEN 20-00Z REST OF THE TAFS). WINDS TO STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KALY 210249
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
949 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 949 PM EST...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSING OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...WHILE CLOUDY
OR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH. THE
LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE VORTICITY ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NW
CT...AND THE SRN TACONICS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WEAK
INVERTED SFC TROUGH DOWNSTREAM WILL DRAW IN SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND
SPREAD IT NORTHWEST FROM SE NEW ENGLAND AND CAPE COD. THE LATEST
HIRES WRF LAYER COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT SNOW
MOVING INTO THE WRN NEW ENGLAND CORRIDOR. WE KEPT SLIGHT AND LOW
CHC POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN HERE. MIN TEMPS HAD TO BE LOWERED OVER
THE LAKE GEORGE GLENS FALLS AREA TO MID TEENS...SINCE SOME MINS
HAVE BEEN REACHED ALREADY. THE CLOUDS FILLING IN SHOULD SLOW THE
DOWNWARD TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 210249
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
949 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 949 PM EST...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSING OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...WHILE CLOUDY
OR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH. THE
LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE VORTICITY ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NW
CT...AND THE SRN TACONICS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WEAK
INVERTED SFC TROUGH DOWNSTREAM WILL DRAW IN SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND
SPREAD IT NORTHWEST FROM SE NEW ENGLAND AND CAPE COD. THE LATEST
HIRES WRF LAYER COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT SNOW
MOVING INTO THE WRN NEW ENGLAND CORRIDOR. WE KEPT SLIGHT AND LOW
CHC POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN HERE. MIN TEMPS HAD TO BE LOWERED OVER
THE LAKE GEORGE GLENS FALLS AREA TO MID TEENS...SINCE SOME MINS
HAVE BEEN REACHED ALREADY. THE CLOUDS FILLING IN SHOULD SLOW THE
DOWNWARD TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 210249
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
949 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 949 PM EST...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSING OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...WHILE CLOUDY
OR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH. THE
LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE VORTICITY ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NW
CT...AND THE SRN TACONICS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WEAK
INVERTED SFC TROUGH DOWNSTREAM WILL DRAW IN SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND
SPREAD IT NORTHWEST FROM SE NEW ENGLAND AND CAPE COD. THE LATEST
HIRES WRF LAYER COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT SNOW
MOVING INTO THE WRN NEW ENGLAND CORRIDOR. WE KEPT SLIGHT AND LOW
CHC POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN HERE. MIN TEMPS HAD TO BE LOWERED OVER
THE LAKE GEORGE GLENS FALLS AREA TO MID TEENS...SINCE SOME MINS
HAVE BEEN REACHED ALREADY. THE CLOUDS FILLING IN SHOULD SLOW THE
DOWNWARD TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 210249
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
949 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 949 PM EST...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSING OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...WHILE CLOUDY
OR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH. THE
LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE VORTICITY ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NW
CT...AND THE SRN TACONICS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WEAK
INVERTED SFC TROUGH DOWNSTREAM WILL DRAW IN SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND
SPREAD IT NORTHWEST FROM SE NEW ENGLAND AND CAPE COD. THE LATEST
HIRES WRF LAYER COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT SNOW
MOVING INTO THE WRN NEW ENGLAND CORRIDOR. WE KEPT SLIGHT AND LOW
CHC POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN HERE. MIN TEMPS HAD TO BE LOWERED OVER
THE LAKE GEORGE GLENS FALLS AREA TO MID TEENS...SINCE SOME MINS
HAVE BEEN REACHED ALREADY. THE CLOUDS FILLING IN SHOULD SLOW THE
DOWNWARD TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KBTV 210225
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
925 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM EST SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER
AND MIN TEMPS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CLOUDS STILL ON
TRACK TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH AS LIGHT RETURN FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO PRIOR FORECAST...THOUGH A TAD MILDER SOUTH WHERE
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL BE GREATEST TONIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF STRATUS
UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME
TIME AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS
MIXING DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO
BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES (VFR/MVFR/LOCAL
IFR DUE TO CEILINGS) THRU 03Z AND THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR
AFTER THAT POINT.

SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REVEALS AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WORKING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST/SOUTH ALONG THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER. WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL HELP
ADVECT IFR CEILINGS AT MSS AND PERHAPS TEMPORARILY AT BTV (PER 555
PM FSO OBSERVATION), WITH OTHER SITES MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT
03Z.

AFTER 03Z, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS AS STRATUS LAYER OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHWARD, OCCURRING THE LATEST AT BTV. LIGHT BL
WINDS ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST AT TIMES IN THE
STRATUS. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THESE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT...BUT
THINKING NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY (AROUND 17Z MSS AND
BETWEEN 20-00Z REST OF THE TAFS). WINDS TO STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210225
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
925 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM EST SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER
AND MIN TEMPS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CLOUDS STILL ON
TRACK TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH AS LIGHT RETURN FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO PRIOR FORECAST...THOUGH A TAD MILDER SOUTH WHERE
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL BE GREATEST TONIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF STRATUS
UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME
TIME AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS
MIXING DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO
BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES (VFR/MVFR/LOCAL
IFR DUE TO CEILINGS) THRU 03Z AND THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR
AFTER THAT POINT.

SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REVEALS AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WORKING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST/SOUTH ALONG THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER. WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL HELP
ADVECT IFR CEILINGS AT MSS AND PERHAPS TEMPORARILY AT BTV (PER 555
PM FSO OBSERVATION), WITH OTHER SITES MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT
03Z.

AFTER 03Z, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS AS STRATUS LAYER OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHWARD, OCCURRING THE LATEST AT BTV. LIGHT BL
WINDS ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST AT TIMES IN THE
STRATUS. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THESE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT...BUT
THINKING NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY (AROUND 17Z MSS AND
BETWEEN 20-00Z REST OF THE TAFS). WINDS TO STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KALY 210002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
702 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH IN WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST...

VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSING OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION...SRN DACKS...AND SRN VT...WHILE CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH. THE LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE VORTICITY
ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NW CT...AND THE SRN TACONICS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. SOME TWEAKING OF THE POPS WAS DONE IN THE HOURLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE
THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS
TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 210002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
702 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH IN WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST...

VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSING OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION...SRN DACKS...AND SRN VT...WHILE CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH. THE LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE VORTICITY
ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NW CT...AND THE SRN TACONICS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. SOME TWEAKING OF THE POPS WAS DONE IN THE HOURLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE
THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS
TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KBTV 202334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 634 PM EST SATURDAY...RATHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS OUR AREA
UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGH THE 20S AND TEENS. FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE DEGREE OF STRATUS CLOUD COVER...AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH
IT ADVECTS NORTHWARD AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING HIGH.
RETURN FLOW ALOFT IS INITIALLY VERY WEAK SO EXPECTING ONLY A SLOW
NORTHWARD ADVANCE OVERNIGHT. ALSO DEALING WITH SOME STRATUS UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING PRESSURE-
DRIVEN CHANNELING OF LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED CLOUDS
TO BACK SOUTHWEST INTO HIGHGATE...MONTREAL...MASSENA ETC. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO ESSENTIALLY STAY PUT OR BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...WITH LINGERING CLEAR SKIES
CENTRAL/NORTH BECOMING CAUGHT IN A SQUEEZE PLAY. 18Z NAM12 1 KM
AGL RH APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS THE BEST SO LEANED
IN THIS DIRECTION ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AS OF EARLY EVENING. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 342 PM EST SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM RETURNING INTO OUR AREA...BUT A FEW
CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COLDER AIR MASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF STRATUS
UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME
TIME AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS
MIXING DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO
BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES (VFR/MVFR/LOCAL
IFR DUE TO CEILINGS) THRU 03Z AND THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR
AFTER THAT POINT.

SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REVEALS AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WORKING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST/SOUTH ALONG THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER. WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL HELP
ADVECT IFR CEILINGS AT MSS AND PERHAPS TEMPORARILY AT BTV (PER 555
PM FSO OBSERVATION), WITH OTHER SITES MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT
03Z.

AFTER 03Z, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS AS STRATUS LAYER OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHWARD, OCCURRING THE LATEST AT BTV. LIGHT BL
WINDS ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST AT TIMES IN THE
STRATUS. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THESE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT...BUT
THINKING NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY (AROUND 17Z MSS AND
BETWEEN 20-00Z REST OF THE TAFS). WINDS TO STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LOCONTO/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 634 PM EST SATURDAY...RATHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS OUR AREA
UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGH THE 20S AND TEENS. FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE DEGREE OF STRATUS CLOUD COVER...AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH
IT ADVECTS NORTHWARD AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING HIGH.
RETURN FLOW ALOFT IS INITIALLY VERY WEAK SO EXPECTING ONLY A SLOW
NORTHWARD ADVANCE OVERNIGHT. ALSO DEALING WITH SOME STRATUS UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING PRESSURE-
DRIVEN CHANNELING OF LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED CLOUDS
TO BACK SOUTHWEST INTO HIGHGATE...MONTREAL...MASSENA ETC. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO ESSENTIALLY STAY PUT OR BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...WITH LINGERING CLEAR SKIES
CENTRAL/NORTH BECOMING CAUGHT IN A SQUEEZE PLAY. 18Z NAM12 1 KM
AGL RH APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS THE BEST SO LEANED
IN THIS DIRECTION ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AS OF EARLY EVENING. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 342 PM EST SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM RETURNING INTO OUR AREA...BUT A FEW
CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COLDER AIR MASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF STRATUS
UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME
TIME AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS
MIXING DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO
BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES (VFR/MVFR/LOCAL
IFR DUE TO CEILINGS) THRU 03Z AND THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR
AFTER THAT POINT.

SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REVEALS AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WORKING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST/SOUTH ALONG THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER. WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL HELP
ADVECT IFR CEILINGS AT MSS AND PERHAPS TEMPORARILY AT BTV (PER 555
PM FSO OBSERVATION), WITH OTHER SITES MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT
03Z.

AFTER 03Z, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS AS STRATUS LAYER OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHWARD, OCCURRING THE LATEST AT BTV. LIGHT BL
WINDS ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST AT TIMES IN THE
STRATUS. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THESE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT...BUT
THINKING NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY (AROUND 17Z MSS AND
BETWEEN 20-00Z REST OF THE TAFS). WINDS TO STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LOCONTO/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 634 PM EST SATURDAY...RATHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS OUR AREA
UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGH THE 20S AND TEENS. FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE DEGREE OF STRATUS CLOUD COVER...AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH
IT ADVECTS NORTHWARD AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING HIGH.
RETURN FLOW ALOFT IS INITIALLY VERY WEAK SO EXPECTING ONLY A SLOW
NORTHWARD ADVANCE OVERNIGHT. ALSO DEALING WITH SOME STRATUS UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING PRESSURE-
DRIVEN CHANNELING OF LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED CLOUDS
TO BACK SOUTHWEST INTO HIGHGATE...MONTREAL...MASSENA ETC. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO ESSENTIALLY STAY PUT OR BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...WITH LINGERING CLEAR SKIES
CENTRAL/NORTH BECOMING CAUGHT IN A SQUEEZE PLAY. 18Z NAM12 1 KM
AGL RH APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS THE BEST SO LEANED
IN THIS DIRECTION ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AS OF EARLY EVENING. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 342 PM EST SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM RETURNING INTO OUR AREA...BUT A FEW
CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COLDER AIR MASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF STRATUS
UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME
TIME AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS
MIXING DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO
BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES (VFR/MVFR/LOCAL
IFR DUE TO CEILINGS) THRU 03Z AND THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR
AFTER THAT POINT.

SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REVEALS AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WORKING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST/SOUTH ALONG THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER. WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL HELP
ADVECT IFR CEILINGS AT MSS AND PERHAPS TEMPORARILY AT BTV (PER 555
PM FSO OBSERVATION), WITH OTHER SITES MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT
03Z.

AFTER 03Z, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS AS STRATUS LAYER OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHWARD, OCCURRING THE LATEST AT BTV. LIGHT BL
WINDS ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST AT TIMES IN THE
STRATUS. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THESE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT...BUT
THINKING NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY (AROUND 17Z MSS AND
BETWEEN 20-00Z REST OF THE TAFS). WINDS TO STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LOCONTO/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 634 PM EST SATURDAY...RATHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS OUR AREA
UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGH THE 20S AND TEENS. FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE DEGREE OF STRATUS CLOUD COVER...AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH
IT ADVECTS NORTHWARD AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING HIGH.
RETURN FLOW ALOFT IS INITIALLY VERY WEAK SO EXPECTING ONLY A SLOW
NORTHWARD ADVANCE OVERNIGHT. ALSO DEALING WITH SOME STRATUS UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING PRESSURE-
DRIVEN CHANNELING OF LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED CLOUDS
TO BACK SOUTHWEST INTO HIGHGATE...MONTREAL...MASSENA ETC. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO ESSENTIALLY STAY PUT OR BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...WITH LINGERING CLEAR SKIES
CENTRAL/NORTH BECOMING CAUGHT IN A SQUEEZE PLAY. 18Z NAM12 1 KM
AGL RH APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS THE BEST SO LEANED
IN THIS DIRECTION ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AS OF EARLY EVENING. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 342 PM EST SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM RETURNING INTO OUR AREA...BUT A FEW
CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COLDER AIR MASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF STRATUS
UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME
TIME AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS
MIXING DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO
BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE
QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT
EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS
DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD
GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES (VFR/MVFR/LOCAL
IFR DUE TO CEILINGS) THRU 03Z AND THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR
AFTER THAT POINT.

SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REVEALS AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WORKING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST/SOUTH ALONG THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER. WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL HELP
ADVECT IFR CEILINGS AT MSS AND PERHAPS TEMPORARILY AT BTV (PER 555
PM FSO OBSERVATION), WITH OTHER SITES MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT
03Z.

AFTER 03Z, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS AS STRATUS LAYER OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHWARD, OCCURRING THE LATEST AT BTV. LIGHT BL
WINDS ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST AT TIMES IN THE
STRATUS. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THESE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT...BUT
THINKING NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY (AROUND 17Z MSS AND
BETWEEN 20-00Z REST OF THE TAFS). WINDS TO STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LOCONTO/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KALY 202325
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH IN WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST...

VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSING OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION...SRN DACKS...AND SRN VT...WHILE CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH. THE LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE VORTICITY
ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NW CT...AND THE SRN TACONICS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. SOME TWEAKING OF THE POPS WAS DONE IN THE HOURLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE
THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS
TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 202325
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH IN WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST...

VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSING OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION...SRN DACKS...AND SRN VT...WHILE CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH. THE LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE VORTICITY
ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NW CT...AND THE SRN TACONICS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. SOME TWEAKING OF THE POPS WAS DONE IN THE HOURLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE
THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS
TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KBTV 202318
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
618 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM RETURNING
INTO OUR AREA...BUT A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COLDER AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF STRATUS
UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME
TIME AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS
MIXING DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO
BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 FEET. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
SNOWMELT.  THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL
STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE QUITE LOW
SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT EXPECT AT THE
MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS DAY THE DRY AIR
FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD GET DRY SLOTTED
ALLOWING FOR  THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING FROM THE SOUTH
WEST TO MOVE IN.  WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES (VFR/MVFR/LOCAL
IFR DUE TO CEILINGS) THRU 03Z AND THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR
AFTER THAT POINT.

SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REVEALS AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WORKING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST/SOUTH ALONG THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER. WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL HELP
ADVECT IFR CEILINGS AT MSS AND PERHAPS TEMPORARILY AT BTV (PER 555
PM FSO OBSERVATION), WITH OTHER SITES MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT
03Z.

AFTER 03Z, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS AS STRATUS LAYER OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHWARD, OCCURRING THE LATEST AT BTV. LIGHT BL
WINDS ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST AT TIMES IN THE
STRATUS. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THESE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT...BUT
THINKING NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY (AROUND 17Z MSS AND
BETWEEN 20-00Z REST OF THE TAFS). WINDS TO STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202318
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
618 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM RETURNING
INTO OUR AREA...BUT A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COLDER AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF STRATUS
UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME
TIME AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS
MIXING DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO
BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 FEET. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
SNOWMELT.  THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL
STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE QUITE LOW
SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT EXPECT AT THE
MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS DAY THE DRY AIR
FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD GET DRY SLOTTED
ALLOWING FOR  THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING FROM THE SOUTH
WEST TO MOVE IN.  WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES (VFR/MVFR/LOCAL
IFR DUE TO CEILINGS) THRU 03Z AND THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR
AFTER THAT POINT.

SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REVEALS AN MVFR STRATUS DECK WORKING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST/SOUTH ALONG THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER. WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST QUEBEC WILL HELP
ADVECT IFR CEILINGS AT MSS AND PERHAPS TEMPORARILY AT BTV (PER 555
PM FSO OBSERVATION), WITH OTHER SITES MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT
03Z.

AFTER 03Z, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS AS STRATUS LAYER OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHWARD, OCCURRING THE LATEST AT BTV. LIGHT BL
WINDS ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST AT TIMES IN THE
STRATUS. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THESE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT...BUT
THINKING NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY (AROUND 17Z MSS AND
BETWEEN 20-00Z REST OF THE TAFS). WINDS TO STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KALY 202153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
453 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS COVERED THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 202153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
453 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS COVERED THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 202153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
453 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS COVERED THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 202153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
453 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS COVERED THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KBTV 202042
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM RETURNING
INTO OUR AREA...BUT A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COLDER AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF STRATUS
UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME
TIME AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS
MIXING DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO
BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 FEET. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
SNOWMELT.  THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL
STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE QUITE LOW
SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT EXPECT AT THE
MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS DAY THE DRY AIR
FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD GET DRY SLOTTED
ALLOWING FOR  THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING FROM THE SOUTH
WEST TO MOVE IN.  WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...A SOLID CLOUD DECK FORMED ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND HAS KEPT KPBG UNDER LOW OVERCAST MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND ON VIS SATELLITE IT APPEARS THAT THE
CLOUD DECK IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLIDING NORTH. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND WITH SOME
LIGHT SUBSIDENCE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY FORM OVERNIGHT. AS
THE STRATUS DECK FORMS THERE WILL BE SOME LIKE GROUND FOG POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN NY SITES AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
LIKELY. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202042
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM RETURNING
INTO OUR AREA...BUT A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COLDER AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF STRATUS
UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME
TIME AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS
MIXING DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO
BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 FEET. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
SNOWMELT.  THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL
STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE QUITE LOW
SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT EXPECT AT THE
MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS DAY THE DRY AIR
FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD GET DRY SLOTTED
ALLOWING FOR  THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING FROM THE SOUTH
WEST TO MOVE IN.  WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...A SOLID CLOUD DECK FORMED ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND HAS KEPT KPBG UNDER LOW OVERCAST MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND ON VIS SATELLITE IT APPEARS THAT THE
CLOUD DECK IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLIDING NORTH. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND WITH SOME
LIGHT SUBSIDENCE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY FORM OVERNIGHT. AS
THE STRATUS DECK FORMS THERE WILL BE SOME LIKE GROUND FOG POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN NY SITES AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
LIKELY. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202042
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM RETURNING
INTO OUR AREA...BUT A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COLDER AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF STRATUS
UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME
TIME AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS
MIXING DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO
BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 FEET. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
SNOWMELT.  THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL
STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE QUITE LOW
SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT EXPECT AT THE
MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS DAY THE DRY AIR
FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD GET DRY SLOTTED
ALLOWING FOR  THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING FROM THE SOUTH
WEST TO MOVE IN.  WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...A SOLID CLOUD DECK FORMED ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND HAS KEPT KPBG UNDER LOW OVERCAST MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND ON VIS SATELLITE IT APPEARS THAT THE
CLOUD DECK IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLIDING NORTH. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND WITH SOME
LIGHT SUBSIDENCE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY FORM OVERNIGHT. AS
THE STRATUS DECK FORMS THERE WILL BE SOME LIKE GROUND FOG POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN NY SITES AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
LIKELY. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202042
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM RETURNING
INTO OUR AREA...BUT A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COLDER AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF STRATUS
UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME
TIME AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS
MIXING DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO
BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 FEET. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
SNOWMELT.  THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD CAUSE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL
STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE QUITE LOW
SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT EXPECT AT THE
MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS DAY THE DRY AIR
FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD GET DRY SLOTTED
ALLOWING FOR  THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING FROM THE SOUTH
WEST TO MOVE IN.  WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...A SOLID CLOUD DECK FORMED ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND HAS KEPT KPBG UNDER LOW OVERCAST MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND ON VIS SATELLITE IT APPEARS THAT THE
CLOUD DECK IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLIDING NORTH. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND WITH SOME
LIGHT SUBSIDENCE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY FORM OVERNIGHT. AS
THE STRATUS DECK FORMS THERE WILL BE SOME LIKE GROUND FOG POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN NY SITES AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
LIKELY. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KALY 202033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
333 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS COVERED THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 202033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
333 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS COVERED THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KBTV 201806
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
106 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EST SATURDAY...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY GRIDS
WITH PERSIST AREA OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN CLINTON COUNTY...WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY ERODE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. OTHERWISE...
KEPT ALL OTHER AREAS CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KNOTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...A SOLID CLOUD DECK FORMED ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND HAS KEPT KPBG UNDER LOW OVERCAST MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND ON VIS SATELLITE IT APPEARS THAT THE
CLOUD DECK IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLIDING NORTH. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND WITH SOME
LIGHT SUBSIDENCE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY FORM OVERNIGHT. AS
THE STRATUS DECK FORMS THERE WILL BE SOME LIKE GROUND FOG POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN NY SITES AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
LIKELY. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201806
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
106 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EST SATURDAY...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY GRIDS
WITH PERSIST AREA OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN CLINTON COUNTY...WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY ERODE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. OTHERWISE...
KEPT ALL OTHER AREAS CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KNOTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...A SOLID CLOUD DECK FORMED ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND HAS KEPT KPBG UNDER LOW OVERCAST MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND ON VIS SATELLITE IT APPEARS THAT THE
CLOUD DECK IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLIDING NORTH. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND WITH SOME
LIGHT SUBSIDENCE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY FORM OVERNIGHT. AS
THE STRATUS DECK FORMS THERE WILL BE SOME LIKE GROUND FOG POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN NY SITES AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
LIKELY. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL



000
FXUS61 KALY 201733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MEANWHILE...LOW
CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION WITHIN THE H925-H850
LAYER REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S AND W. WINDS WITHIN THIS LAYER ARE
GRADUALLY VEERING MORE INTO THE SE...WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM IN CT. SO...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...MOHAWK VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MEANWHILE...SUNSHINE
SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE SOME CLOUDS REACH
THESE REGIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 20S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXPECTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 201733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MEANWHILE...LOW
CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION WITHIN THE H925-H850
LAYER REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S AND W. WINDS WITHIN THIS LAYER ARE
GRADUALLY VEERING MORE INTO THE SE...WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM IN CT. SO...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...MOHAWK VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MEANWHILE...SUNSHINE
SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE SOME CLOUDS REACH
THESE REGIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 20S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXPECTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 201733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MEANWHILE...LOW
CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION WITHIN THE H925-H850
LAYER REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S AND W. WINDS WITHIN THIS LAYER ARE
GRADUALLY VEERING MORE INTO THE SE...WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM IN CT. SO...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...MOHAWK VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MEANWHILE...SUNSHINE
SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE SOME CLOUDS REACH
THESE REGIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 20S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXPECTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 201733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MEANWHILE...LOW
CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION WITHIN THE H925-H850
LAYER REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S AND W. WINDS WITHIN THIS LAYER ARE
GRADUALLY VEERING MORE INTO THE SE...WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM IN CT. SO...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...MOHAWK VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MEANWHILE...SUNSHINE
SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE SOME CLOUDS REACH
THESE REGIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 20S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXPECTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 201722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MEANWHILE...LOW
CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION WITHIN THE H925-H850
LAYER REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S AND W. WINDS WITHIN THIS LAYER ARE
GRADUALLY VEERING MORE INTO THE SE...WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM IN CT. SO...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...MOHAWK VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MEANWHILE...SUNSHINE
SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE SOME CLOUDS REACH
THESE REGIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 20S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AGAIN FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. BASED ON TRENDS IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...KGFL SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET THIS MORNING.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDINESS CUTS RIGHT THROUGH THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES...SO KALB SHOULD HAVE PERIODS OF
BROKEN AND SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET...WHILE KPSF
AND KPOU SHOULD HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000-3000
FEET. BY AFTERNOON...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD ADD A HIGHER LAYER TO THE VARYING COVERAGE OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND HOW MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPING IS IN QUESTION...
SO INCLUDING A SCATTERED LAYER BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET IN CASE THE
LOW CLOUDS DOMINATE AGAIN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 201722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MEANWHILE...LOW
CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION WITHIN THE H925-H850
LAYER REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S AND W. WINDS WITHIN THIS LAYER ARE
GRADUALLY VEERING MORE INTO THE SE...WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM IN CT. SO...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...MOHAWK VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MEANWHILE...SUNSHINE
SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE SOME CLOUDS REACH
THESE REGIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 20S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AGAIN FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. BASED ON TRENDS IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...KGFL SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET THIS MORNING.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDINESS CUTS RIGHT THROUGH THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES...SO KALB SHOULD HAVE PERIODS OF
BROKEN AND SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET...WHILE KPSF
AND KPOU SHOULD HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000-3000
FEET. BY AFTERNOON...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD ADD A HIGHER LAYER TO THE VARYING COVERAGE OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND HOW MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPING IS IN QUESTION...
SO INCLUDING A SCATTERED LAYER BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET IN CASE THE
LOW CLOUDS DOMINATE AGAIN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 201700
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1200 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EST SATURDAY...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY GRIDS
WITH PERSIST AREA OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN CLINTON COUNTY...WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY ERODE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. OTHERWISE...
KEPT ALL OTHER AREAS CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KNOTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. IFR CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK HOWEVER...WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED BY AROUND 14Z. MVFR CIGS TRENDING VFR AT PBG THIS
MORNING. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS ENTER
THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH A RETURN OF LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT MOST SITES...AND
IFR AT SLK. ALSO...VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT
IN BR...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MSS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201700
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1200 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EST SATURDAY...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY GRIDS
WITH PERSIST AREA OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN CLINTON COUNTY...WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY ERODE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. OTHERWISE...
KEPT ALL OTHER AREAS CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KNOTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. IFR CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK HOWEVER...WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED BY AROUND 14Z. MVFR CIGS TRENDING VFR AT PBG THIS
MORNING. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS ENTER
THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH A RETURN OF LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT MOST SITES...AND
IFR AT SLK. ALSO...VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT
IN BR...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MSS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KALY 201456
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
956 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM EST...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE SARATOGA REGION AND NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG
INVERSION WITHIN THE H925-H850 LAYER REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S AND
W. WINDS WITHIN THIS LAYER ARE GRADUALLY VEERING MORE INTO THE
SE...WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN CT. SO...EXPECT SKIES
TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...MOHAWK VALLEY AND MUCH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTHWARD
A BIT AS WELL INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SARATOGA REGION.
MEANWHILE...SUNSHINE SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE SOME
CLOUDS REACH THESE REGIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 20S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AGAIN FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. BASED ON TRENDS IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...KGFL SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET THIS MORNING.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDINESS CUTS RIGHT THROUGH THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES...SO KALB SHOULD HAVE PERIODS OF
BROKEN AND SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET...WHILE KPSF
AND KPOU SHOULD HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000-3000
FEET. BY AFTERNOON...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD ADD A HIGHER LAYER TO THE VARYING COVERAGE OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND HOW MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPING IS IN QUESTION...
SO INCLUDING A SCATTERED LAYER BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET IN CASE THE
LOW CLOUDS DOMINATE AGAIN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 201355
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
855 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 855 AM EST SATURDAY...COLD AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
QUITE A FEW SITES STILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND
HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS COLDER START...BUT HIGHS IN THE
20S STILL LOOK GOOD. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KNOTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. IFR CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK HOWEVER...WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED BY AROUND 14Z. MVFR CIGS TRENDING VFR AT PBG THIS
MORNING. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS ENTER
THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH A RETURN OF LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT MOST SITES...AND
IFR AT SLK. ALSO...VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT
IN BR...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MSS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201355
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
855 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 855 AM EST SATURDAY...COLD AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
QUITE A FEW SITES STILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND
HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS COLDER START...BUT HIGHS IN THE
20S STILL LOOK GOOD. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KNOTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. IFR CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK HOWEVER...WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED BY AROUND 14Z. MVFR CIGS TRENDING VFR AT PBG THIS
MORNING. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS ENTER
THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH A RETURN OF LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT MOST SITES...AND
IFR AT SLK. ALSO...VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT
IN BR...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MSS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 201152
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
652 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 622 AM EST SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE FOR 630 AM UPDATE WAS TO
USE BTV12 BLENDED WITH BTV4 TO GET CLOSE TO CURRENT SKY COVER AND
HOW CLOUDS MIGHT EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY. MOST BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE AFFECTS OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HAVE
GONE WITH A FORECAST WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. IFR CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK HOWEVER...WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED BY AROUND 14Z. MVFR CIGS TRENDING VFR AT PBG THIS
MORNING. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS ENTER
THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH A RETURN OF LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT MOST SITES...AND
IFR AT SLK. ALSO...VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT
IN BR...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MSS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201152
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
652 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 622 AM EST SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE FOR 630 AM UPDATE WAS TO
USE BTV12 BLENDED WITH BTV4 TO GET CLOSE TO CURRENT SKY COVER AND
HOW CLOUDS MIGHT EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY. MOST BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE AFFECTS OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HAVE
GONE WITH A FORECAST WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. IFR CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK HOWEVER...WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED BY AROUND 14Z. MVFR CIGS TRENDING VFR AT PBG THIS
MORNING. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS ENTER
THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH A RETURN OF LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT MOST SITES...AND
IFR AT SLK. ALSO...VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT
IN BR...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MSS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201152
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
652 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 622 AM EST SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE FOR 630 AM UPDATE WAS TO
USE BTV12 BLENDED WITH BTV4 TO GET CLOSE TO CURRENT SKY COVER AND
HOW CLOUDS MIGHT EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY. MOST BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE AFFECTS OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HAVE
GONE WITH A FORECAST WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. IFR CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK HOWEVER...WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED BY AROUND 14Z. MVFR CIGS TRENDING VFR AT PBG THIS
MORNING. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS ENTER
THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH A RETURN OF LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT MOST SITES...AND
IFR AT SLK. ALSO...VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT
IN BR...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MSS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201152
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
652 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 622 AM EST SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE FOR 630 AM UPDATE WAS TO
USE BTV12 BLENDED WITH BTV4 TO GET CLOSE TO CURRENT SKY COVER AND
HOW CLOUDS MIGHT EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY. MOST BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE AFFECTS OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HAVE
GONE WITH A FORECAST WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. IFR CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK HOWEVER...WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED BY AROUND 14Z. MVFR CIGS TRENDING VFR AT PBG THIS
MORNING. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS ENTER
THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH A RETURN OF LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT MOST SITES...AND
IFR AT SLK. ALSO...VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT
IN BR...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MSS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KALY 201126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
AREAS OF CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND
TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO
OUR REGION AND CLOUD COVER NOW RE EXPANDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST BACK
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO JOIN THE CLOUDS
IN NY...AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDINESS SETS UP THROUGH THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE BERKSHIRES TO NEAR THE
MA/VT BORDER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS MAY BE THE LINE
BETWEEN CLOUDS AND CLEARING THROUGH THIS MORNING...MAYBE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE OH VALLEY UPPER
ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE REGION. THEN...EVEN THE CLEAR AREAS WILL
CLOUD BACK OVER. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE
LOW LEVEL RIDGING...SO MIXING WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND
LACK OF WINDS. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S.

UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER
AREAS TONIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO
AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AGAIN FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. BASED ON TRENDS IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...KGFL SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET THIS MORNING.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDINESS CUTS RIGHT THROUGH THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES...SO KALB SHOULD HAVE PERIODS OF
BROKEN AND SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET...WHILE KPSF
AND KPOU SHOULD HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000-3000
FEET. BY AFTERNOON...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD ADD A HIGHER LAYER TO THE VARYING COVERAGE OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND HOW MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPING IS IN QUESTION...
SO INCLUDING A SCATTERED LAYER BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET IN CASE THE
LOW CLOUDS DOMINATE AGAIN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 201126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
AREAS OF CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND
TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO
OUR REGION AND CLOUD COVER NOW RE EXPANDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST BACK
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO JOIN THE CLOUDS
IN NY...AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDINESS SETS UP THROUGH THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE BERKSHIRES TO NEAR THE
MA/VT BORDER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS MAY BE THE LINE
BETWEEN CLOUDS AND CLEARING THROUGH THIS MORNING...MAYBE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE OH VALLEY UPPER
ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE REGION. THEN...EVEN THE CLEAR AREAS WILL
CLOUD BACK OVER. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE
LOW LEVEL RIDGING...SO MIXING WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND
LACK OF WINDS. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S.

UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER
AREAS TONIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO
AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AGAIN FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. BASED ON TRENDS IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...KGFL SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET THIS MORNING.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDINESS CUTS RIGHT THROUGH THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES...SO KALB SHOULD HAVE PERIODS OF
BROKEN AND SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET...WHILE KPSF
AND KPOU SHOULD HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000-3000
FEET. BY AFTERNOON...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD ADD A HIGHER LAYER TO THE VARYING COVERAGE OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND HOW MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPING IS IN QUESTION...
SO INCLUDING A SCATTERED LAYER BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET IN CASE THE
LOW CLOUDS DOMINATE AGAIN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 201124
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 622 AM EST SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE FOR 630 AM UPDATE WAS TO
USE BTV12 BLENDED WITH BTV4 TO GET CLOSE TO CURRENT SKY COVER AND
HOW CLOUDS MIGHT EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY. MOST BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE AFFECTS OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HAVE
GONE WITH A FORECAST WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA. IFR
CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVING AFTER 10Z.
MVFR TRENDING VFR AT MPV OVERNIGHT. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 201124
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 622 AM EST SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE FOR 630 AM UPDATE WAS TO
USE BTV12 BLENDED WITH BTV4 TO GET CLOSE TO CURRENT SKY COVER AND
HOW CLOUDS MIGHT EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY. MOST BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE AFFECTS OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HAVE
GONE WITH A FORECAST WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MID 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA. IFR
CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVING AFTER 10Z.
MVFR TRENDING VFR AT MPV OVERNIGHT. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KALY 200947
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
AREAS OF CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND
TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN SE CANADA GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION
AND CLOUD COVER SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND
THE BERKSHIRES CLEARING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  CLOUDS
SHOULD BREAK UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STAY CLOUDY IN THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THOSE
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION
MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING...SO MIXING WILL BE LIMITED TO
SOME DEGREE. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER
AREAS TONIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO
AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
SCATTERED CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL...BUT KALB COULD SEE SOME
BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS BY 11Z. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING AND TOWARD MIDDAY...ANY SCATTERED
VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS...AROUND 5000-10000
FEET BECOME BROKEN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNIGN HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 200947
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
AREAS OF CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND
TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN SE CANADA GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION
AND CLOUD COVER SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND
THE BERKSHIRES CLEARING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  CLOUDS
SHOULD BREAK UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STAY CLOUDY IN THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THOSE
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION
MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING...SO MIXING WILL BE LIMITED TO
SOME DEGREE. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER
AREAS TONIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO
AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
SCATTERED CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL...BUT KALB COULD SEE SOME
BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS BY 11Z. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING AND TOWARD MIDDAY...ANY SCATTERED
VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS...AROUND 5000-10000
FEET BECOME BROKEN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNIGN HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 200947
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
AREAS OF CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND
TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN SE CANADA GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION
AND CLOUD COVER SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND
THE BERKSHIRES CLEARING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  CLOUDS
SHOULD BREAK UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STAY CLOUDY IN THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THOSE
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION
MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING...SO MIXING WILL BE LIMITED TO
SOME DEGREE. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER
AREAS TONIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO
AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
SCATTERED CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL...BUT KALB COULD SEE SOME
BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS BY 11Z. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING AND TOWARD MIDDAY...ANY SCATTERED
VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS...AROUND 5000-10000
FEET BECOME BROKEN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNIGN HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 200947
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
AREAS OF CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND
TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN SE CANADA GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION
AND CLOUD COVER SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND
THE BERKSHIRES CLEARING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  CLOUDS
SHOULD BREAK UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STAY CLOUDY IN THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THOSE
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION
MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING...SO MIXING WILL BE LIMITED TO
SOME DEGREE. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER
AREAS TONIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO
AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
SCATTERED CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL...BUT KALB COULD SEE SOME
BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS BY 11Z. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING AND TOWARD MIDDAY...ANY SCATTERED
VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS...AROUND 5000-10000
FEET BECOME BROKEN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNIGN HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 200902
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL THE
TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE AFFECTS
OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH A FORECAST WITH SOME
CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER
THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MID 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850
MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY
QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA. IFR
CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVING AFTER 10Z.
MVFR TRENDING VFR AT MPV OVERNIGHT. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KALY 200840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
340 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
AREAS OF CLOUDS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND BRING MILDER
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES
EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN SE CANADA GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION
AND CLOUD COVER SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND
THE BERKSHIRES CLEARING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  CLOUDS
SHOULD BREAK UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STAY CLOUDY IN THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THOSE
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION
MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING...SO MIXING WILL BE LIMITED TO
SOME DEGREE. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER
AREAS TONIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO
AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
SCATTERED CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL...BUT KALB COULD SEE SOME
BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS BY 11Z. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING AND TOWARD MIDDAY...ANY SCATTERED
VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS...AROUND 5000-10000
FEET BECOME BROKEN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNIGN HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 200840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
340 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
AREAS OF CLOUDS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND BRING MILDER
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES
EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN SE CANADA GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION
AND CLOUD COVER SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND
THE BERKSHIRES CLEARING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  CLOUDS
SHOULD BREAK UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STAY CLOUDY IN THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THOSE
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION
MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING...SO MIXING WILL BE LIMITED TO
SOME DEGREE. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER
AREAS TONIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO
AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
SCATTERED CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL...BUT KALB COULD SEE SOME
BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS BY 11Z. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING AND TOWARD MIDDAY...ANY SCATTERED
VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS...AROUND 5000-10000
FEET BECOME BROKEN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNIGN HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 200825
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
325 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL THE
TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE AFFECTS
OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH A FORECAST WITH SOME
CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER
THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MID 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA. IFR
CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVING AFTER 10Z.
MVFR TRENDING VFR AT MPV OVERNIGHT. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 200825
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
325 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL THE
TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE AFFECTS
OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH A FORECAST WITH SOME
CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER
THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MID 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA. IFR
CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVING AFTER 10Z.
MVFR TRENDING VFR AT MPV OVERNIGHT. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KALY 200720
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
220 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
AREAS OF CLOUDS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND BRING MILDER
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES
EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND TEMPERATURES TRENDS...RAISING A FEW
TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE CLOUD COVER
IS MOST PERSISTENT. IN NORTHERN AREAS...AND IN SOUTHERN VT...THE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING...SO SOME MODIFICATIONS TO SKY COVER IN
SOME AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
SCATTERED CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL...BUT KALB COULD SEE SOME
BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS BY 11Z. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING AND TOWARD MIDDAY...ANY SCATTERED
VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS...AROUND 5000-10000
FEET BECOME BROKEN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNIGN HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BECOMIONG VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 200720
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
220 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
AREAS OF CLOUDS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND BRING MILDER
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES
EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND TEMPERATURES TRENDS...RAISING A FEW
TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE CLOUD COVER
IS MOST PERSISTENT. IN NORTHERN AREAS...AND IN SOUTHERN VT...THE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING...SO SOME MODIFICATIONS TO SKY COVER IN
SOME AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
SCATTERED CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL...BUT KALB COULD SEE SOME
BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS BY 11Z. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING AND TOWARD MIDDAY...ANY SCATTERED
VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS...AROUND 5000-10000
FEET BECOME BROKEN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNIGN HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BECOMIONG VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 200552
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1226 AM EST SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AS
OF THE 900 PM HOUR. SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR IN MUCH OF THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NC/NE
VT AND EXPECT THIS SLOW CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT GRADUALLY ERODES LINGERING STRATUS AREA.
AS A RESULT OF THE CLEARING SOME NORTHERN LOCALES ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING OR HAVE REACHED FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SO THIS
PREDICATED AN ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN THIS REGARD. LOOKING AT
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOTHING REALLY CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS
ALL THAT WELL...FAIRLY TYPICAL UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS. THUS LEANED
TOWARD LATEST MET MOS GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD
BY A FEW DEGREES WHICH AT LEAST TRENDS VALUES IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVING AFTER
10Z. MVFR TRENDING VFR AT MPV OVERNIGHT. AT REST OF
SITES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS.
SOME MID CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 200552
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1226 AM EST SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AS
OF THE 900 PM HOUR. SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR IN MUCH OF THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NC/NE
VT AND EXPECT THIS SLOW CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT GRADUALLY ERODES LINGERING STRATUS AREA.
AS A RESULT OF THE CLEARING SOME NORTHERN LOCALES ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING OR HAVE REACHED FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SO THIS
PREDICATED AN ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN THIS REGARD. LOOKING AT
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOTHING REALLY CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS
ALL THAT WELL...FAIRLY TYPICAL UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS. THUS LEANED
TOWARD LATEST MET MOS GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD
BY A FEW DEGREES WHICH AT LEAST TRENDS VALUES IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVING AFTER
10Z. MVFR TRENDING VFR AT MPV OVERNIGHT. AT REST OF
SITES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS.
SOME MID CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 200526
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1226 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1226 AM EST SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AS
OF THE 900 PM HOUR. SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR IN MUCH OF THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NC/NE
VT AND EXPECT THIS SLOW CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT GRADUALLY ERODES LINGERING STRATUS AREA.
AS A RESULT OF THE CLEARING SOME NORTHERN LOCALES ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING OR HAVE REACHED FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SO THIS
PREDICATED AN ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN THIS REGARD. LOOKING AT
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOTHING REALLY CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS
ALL THAT WELL...FAIRLY TYPICAL UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS. THUS LEANED
TOWARD LATEST MET MOS GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD
BY A FEW DEGREES WHICH AT LEAST TRENDS VALUES IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR (IFR AT SLK) CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS AS DRYING BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SLK AND MPV IN
BLOCKED/SUB- CRITICAL FLOW WITH LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK EARLY
BECOME VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 200526
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1226 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1226 AM EST SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AS
OF THE 900 PM HOUR. SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR IN MUCH OF THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NC/NE
VT AND EXPECT THIS SLOW CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT GRADUALLY ERODES LINGERING STRATUS AREA.
AS A RESULT OF THE CLEARING SOME NORTHERN LOCALES ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING OR HAVE REACHED FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SO THIS
PREDICATED AN ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN THIS REGARD. LOOKING AT
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOTHING REALLY CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS
ALL THAT WELL...FAIRLY TYPICAL UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS. THUS LEANED
TOWARD LATEST MET MOS GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD
BY A FEW DEGREES WHICH AT LEAST TRENDS VALUES IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR (IFR AT SLK) CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS AS DRYING BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SLK AND MPV IN
BLOCKED/SUB- CRITICAL FLOW WITH LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK EARLY
BECOME VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KALY 200525
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1225 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND TEMPERATURES TRENDS...RAISING A FEW
TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE CLOUD COVER
IS MOST PERSISTENT. IN NORTHERN AREAS...AND IN SOUTHERN VT...THE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING...SO SOME MODIFICATIONS TO SKY COVER IN
SOME AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
N/NE FROM THE DELMARVA REGION.  THIS IS ACTUALLY A SECONDARY WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE NEAR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY.

SOME MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT THE SFC AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY TUE AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.  A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WARRANTS A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  WE WILL MENTION THE LIGHT MIX OF
PCPN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U30S FROM THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO M40S TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE H500 FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
NEUTRAL-TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF RAIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO L40S.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
SCATTERED CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL...BUT KALB COULD SEE SOME
BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS BY 11Z. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING AND TOWARD MIDDAY...ANY SCATTERED
VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS...AROUND 5000-10000
FEET BECOME BROKEN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNIGN HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BECOMIONG VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 200525
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1225 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND TEMPERATURES TRENDS...RAISING A FEW
TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE CLOUD COVER
IS MOST PERSISTENT. IN NORTHERN AREAS...AND IN SOUTHERN VT...THE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING...SO SOME MODIFICATIONS TO SKY COVER IN
SOME AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
N/NE FROM THE DELMARVA REGION.  THIS IS ACTUALLY A SECONDARY WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE NEAR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY.

SOME MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT THE SFC AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY TUE AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.  A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WARRANTS A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  WE WILL MENTION THE LIGHT MIX OF
PCPN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U30S FROM THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO M40S TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE H500 FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
NEUTRAL-TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF RAIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO L40S.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
SCATTERED CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL...BUT KALB COULD SEE SOME
BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS BY 11Z. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING AND TOWARD MIDDAY...ANY SCATTERED
VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS...AROUND 5000-10000
FEET BECOME BROKEN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNIGN HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BECOMIONG VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 200257
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
957 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 957 PM EST...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO...SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
CNTRL-ERN NY INTO PA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.  CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A PARTIAL CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND THE UPPER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVER THE NRN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. MIN LOOKS GOOD IN THE TEENS TO
L20S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK. T/TD/RH
TRENDS WERE REDONE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
N/NE FROM THE DELMARVA REGION.  THIS IS ACTUALLY A SECONDARY WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE NEAR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY.

SOME MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT THE SFC AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY TUE AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.  A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WARRANTS A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  WE WILL MENTION THE LIGHT MIX OF
PCPN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U30S FROM THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO M40S TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE H500 FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
NEUTRAL-TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF RAIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO L40S.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
TONIGHT...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE TO LOW VFR LEVELS BTWN 10Z-
14Z. SOME MOISTURE IS LINGERING BELOW A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WITH
THE DISTURBANCE. EXPECT THE CIGS TO INCREASE TO VFR BY THE LATE
MORNING WITH ONLY SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AROUND. KPOU WILL HAVE
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD STAY VFR. EXPECT
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 5-6 KFT AGL TO LINGER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

N TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS THAN 5 KTS IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 200231
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
931 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 931 PM EST FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AS
OF THE 900 PM HOUR. SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR IN MUCH OF THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NC/NE
VT AND EXPECT THIS SLOW CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT GRADUALLY ERODES LINGERING STRATUS AREA.
AS A RESULT OF THE CLEARING SOME NORTHERN LOCALES ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING OR HAVE REACHED FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SO THIS
PREDICATED AN ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN THIS REGARD. LOOKING AT
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOTHING REALLY CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS
ALL THAT WELL...FAIRLY TYPICAL UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS. THUS LEANED
TOWARD LATEST MET MOS GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD
BY A FEW DEGREES WHICH AT LEAST TRENDS VALUES IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR (IFR AT SLK) CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS AS DRYING BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SLK AND MPV IN
BLOCKED/SUB- CRITICAL FLOW WITH LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK EARLY
BECOME VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 200231
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
931 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 931 PM EST FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AS
OF THE 900 PM HOUR. SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR IN MUCH OF THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NC/NE
VT AND EXPECT THIS SLOW CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT GRADUALLY ERODES LINGERING STRATUS AREA.
AS A RESULT OF THE CLEARING SOME NORTHERN LOCALES ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING OR HAVE REACHED FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SO THIS
PREDICATED AN ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN THIS REGARD. LOOKING AT
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOTHING REALLY CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS
ALL THAT WELL...FAIRLY TYPICAL UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS. THUS LEANED
TOWARD LATEST MET MOS GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD
BY A FEW DEGREES WHICH AT LEAST TRENDS VALUES IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR (IFR AT SLK) CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS AS DRYING BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SLK AND MPV IN
BLOCKED/SUB- CRITICAL FLOW WITH LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK EARLY
BECOME VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 200231
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
931 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 931 PM EST FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AS
OF THE 900 PM HOUR. SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR IN MUCH OF THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NC/NE
VT AND EXPECT THIS SLOW CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT GRADUALLY ERODES LINGERING STRATUS AREA.
AS A RESULT OF THE CLEARING SOME NORTHERN LOCALES ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING OR HAVE REACHED FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SO THIS
PREDICATED AN ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN THIS REGARD. LOOKING AT
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOTHING REALLY CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS
ALL THAT WELL...FAIRLY TYPICAL UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS. THUS LEANED
TOWARD LATEST MET MOS GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD
BY A FEW DEGREES WHICH AT LEAST TRENDS VALUES IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR (IFR AT SLK) CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS AS DRYING BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SLK AND MPV IN
BLOCKED/SUB- CRITICAL FLOW WITH LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK EARLY
BECOME VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 200231
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
931 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 931 PM EST FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AS
OF THE 900 PM HOUR. SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR IN MUCH OF THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NC/NE
VT AND EXPECT THIS SLOW CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT GRADUALLY ERODES LINGERING STRATUS AREA.
AS A RESULT OF THE CLEARING SOME NORTHERN LOCALES ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING OR HAVE REACHED FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SO THIS
PREDICATED AN ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN THIS REGARD. LOOKING AT
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOTHING REALLY CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS
ALL THAT WELL...FAIRLY TYPICAL UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS. THUS LEANED
TOWARD LATEST MET MOS GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD
BY A FEW DEGREES WHICH AT LEAST TRENDS VALUES IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR (IFR AT SLK) CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS AS DRYING BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SLK AND MPV IN
BLOCKED/SUB- CRITICAL FLOW WITH LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK EARLY
BECOME VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KALY 192357
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 629 PM EST...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO. A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS W-CNTRL NY INTO PA.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A
PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT. T/TD/RH TRENDS REDONE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

CONTINUED TO TREND SKY COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATE TONIGHT WITHIN
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESP N OF ALBANY...WHILE HOLDING ONTO THE
CLOUDS MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. FARTHER EAST...FROM
SOUTHERN VT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT...SOME DRIER AIR WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE MAY
EVENTUALLY EXPAND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. IN
GENERAL...HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR
TEMPS...WITH MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
N/NE FROM THE DELMARVA REGION.  THIS IS ACTUALLY A SECONDARY WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE NEAR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY.

SOME MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT THE SFC AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY TUE AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.  A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WARRANTS A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  WE WILL MENTION THE LIGHT MIX OF
PCPN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U30S FROM THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO M40S TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE H500 FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
NEUTRAL-TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF RAIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO L40S.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
TONIGHT...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE TO LOW VFR LEVELS BTWN 10Z-
14Z. SOME MOISTURE IS LINGERING BELOW A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WITH
THE DISTURBANCE. EXPECT THE CIGS TO INCREASE TO VFR BY THE LATE
MORNING WITH ONLY SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AROUND. KPOU WILL HAVE
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD STAY VFR. EXPECT
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 5-6 KFT AGL TO LINGER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

N TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS THAN 5 KTS IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 192357
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 629 PM EST...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO. A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS W-CNTRL NY INTO PA.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A
PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT. T/TD/RH TRENDS REDONE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

CONTINUED TO TREND SKY COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATE TONIGHT WITHIN
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESP N OF ALBANY...WHILE HOLDING ONTO THE
CLOUDS MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. FARTHER EAST...FROM
SOUTHERN VT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT...SOME DRIER AIR WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE MAY
EVENTUALLY EXPAND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. IN
GENERAL...HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR
TEMPS...WITH MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
N/NE FROM THE DELMARVA REGION.  THIS IS ACTUALLY A SECONDARY WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE NEAR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY.

SOME MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT THE SFC AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY TUE AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.  A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WARRANTS A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  WE WILL MENTION THE LIGHT MIX OF
PCPN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U30S FROM THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO M40S TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE H500 FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
NEUTRAL-TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF RAIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO L40S.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
TONIGHT...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE TO LOW VFR LEVELS BTWN 10Z-
14Z. SOME MOISTURE IS LINGERING BELOW A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WITH
THE DISTURBANCE. EXPECT THE CIGS TO INCREASE TO VFR BY THE LATE
MORNING WITH ONLY SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AROUND. KPOU WILL HAVE
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD STAY VFR. EXPECT
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 5-6 KFT AGL TO LINGER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

N TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS THAN 5 KTS IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KBTV 192339
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 639 PM EST FRIDAY...MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AS OF
EARLY EVENING TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. LATEST IR
IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CLEARING HAS EASED SOUTHWARD
A LITTLE FASTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO MATCH
THESE CURRENT TRENDS...SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AND ALLOWING AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BECOME PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF CURRENT
FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS LONGWAVE RADIATIVE EFFECTS TAKE
HOLD. HAVE LEFT CURRENT FORECAST MINIMUMS ALONE AT THIS
POINT...BUT I IMAGINE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY LATER
THIS EVENING AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE OVERALL DEGREE OF
CLEARING AND HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS
IN GOOD SHAPE SHOWING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 319 PM EST FRIDAY...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. MAIN QUESTION
OVERNIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERALL AFFECTS
ON RADIATIVE COOLING/TEMPERATURES. NWLY FLOW STEADILY WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD. COMBINED WITH PRE-
EXISTING INVERSION 950-900MB LAYER...FROUDE NUMBERS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS ARE VERY LOW OVERNIGHT
SUGGESTING A BLOCKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. SUCH A REGIME SHOULD
TEND TO MAINTAIN STRATUS ON UPWIND SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING ERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY EAST
OF THE GREENS. HAVE TRENDED SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW PARTIAL
CLEARING EAST OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD BIAS-CORRECTED
NAM-MOS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS AS STRATUS WILL LIMIT COOLING IN MOST
AREAS. THIS YIELDS A LOW OF ABOUT 17F AT KBTV (VS. 5F ON THE GFS-
MOS GUIDANCE). STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH AREAWIDE LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW- MID TEENS. WILL SEE LOCALIZED SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO
LOWS IN LOCATIONS SEEING A BIT MORE CLEARING. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY NW-N 5-10 MPH...THEN TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR (IFR AT SLK) CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS AS DRYING BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SLK AND MPV IN
BLOCKED/SUB- CRITICAL FLOW WITH LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK EARLY
BECOME VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...LOCONTO/EVENSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 192339
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 639 PM EST FRIDAY...MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AS OF
EARLY EVENING TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. LATEST IR
IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CLEARING HAS EASED SOUTHWARD
A LITTLE FASTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO MATCH
THESE CURRENT TRENDS...SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AND ALLOWING AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BECOME PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF CURRENT
FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS LONGWAVE RADIATIVE EFFECTS TAKE
HOLD. HAVE LEFT CURRENT FORECAST MINIMUMS ALONE AT THIS
POINT...BUT I IMAGINE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY LATER
THIS EVENING AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE OVERALL DEGREE OF
CLEARING AND HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS
IN GOOD SHAPE SHOWING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 319 PM EST FRIDAY...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. MAIN QUESTION
OVERNIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERALL AFFECTS
ON RADIATIVE COOLING/TEMPERATURES. NWLY FLOW STEADILY WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD. COMBINED WITH PRE-
EXISTING INVERSION 950-900MB LAYER...FROUDE NUMBERS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS ARE VERY LOW OVERNIGHT
SUGGESTING A BLOCKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. SUCH A REGIME SHOULD
TEND TO MAINTAIN STRATUS ON UPWIND SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING ERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY EAST
OF THE GREENS. HAVE TRENDED SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW PARTIAL
CLEARING EAST OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD BIAS-CORRECTED
NAM-MOS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS AS STRATUS WILL LIMIT COOLING IN MOST
AREAS. THIS YIELDS A LOW OF ABOUT 17F AT KBTV (VS. 5F ON THE GFS-
MOS GUIDANCE). STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH AREAWIDE LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW- MID TEENS. WILL SEE LOCALIZED SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO
LOWS IN LOCATIONS SEEING A BIT MORE CLEARING. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY NW-N 5-10 MPH...THEN TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR (IFR AT SLK) CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS AS DRYING BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SLK AND MPV IN
BLOCKED/SUB- CRITICAL FLOW WITH LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK EARLY
BECOME VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...LOCONTO/EVENSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 192329
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 629 PM EST...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO. A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS W-CNTRL NY INTO PA.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A
PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT. T/TD/RH TRENDS REDONE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

CONTINUED TO TREND SKY COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATE TONIGHT WITHIN
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESP N OF ALBANY...WHILE HOLDING ONTO THE
CLOUDS MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. FARTHER EAST...FROM
SOUTHERN VT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT...SOME DRIER AIR WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE MAY
EVENTUALLY EXPAND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. IN
GENERAL...HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR
TEMPS...WITH MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
N/NE FROM THE DELMARVA REGION.  THIS IS ACTUALLY A SECONDARY WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE NEAR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY.

SOME MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT THE SFC AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY TUE AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.  A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WARRANTS A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  WE WILL MENTION THE LIGHT MIX OF
PCPN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U30S FROM THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO M40S TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE H500 FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
NEUTRAL-TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF RAIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO L40S.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KALB BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF
SUN TO FILTER IN A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT KPSF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TRYING
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET
AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING AT KPSF. WILL
GO WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN AND SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIMIT MVFR CEILING POTENTIAL.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500-5000 FEET AFTER
12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD ON AT KPSF UNTIL AS
LATE AS 15Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT VEERING TO THE
NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 192329
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 629 PM EST...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO. A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS W-CNTRL NY INTO PA.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A
PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT. T/TD/RH TRENDS REDONE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

CONTINUED TO TREND SKY COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATE TONIGHT WITHIN
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESP N OF ALBANY...WHILE HOLDING ONTO THE
CLOUDS MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. FARTHER EAST...FROM
SOUTHERN VT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT...SOME DRIER AIR WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE MAY
EVENTUALLY EXPAND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. IN
GENERAL...HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR
TEMPS...WITH MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
N/NE FROM THE DELMARVA REGION.  THIS IS ACTUALLY A SECONDARY WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE NEAR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY.

SOME MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT THE SFC AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY TUE AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.  A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WARRANTS A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  WE WILL MENTION THE LIGHT MIX OF
PCPN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U30S FROM THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO M40S TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE H500 FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
NEUTRAL-TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF RAIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO L40S.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KALB BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF
SUN TO FILTER IN A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT KPSF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TRYING
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET
AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING AT KPSF. WILL
GO WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN AND SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIMIT MVFR CEILING POTENTIAL.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500-5000 FEET AFTER
12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD ON AT KPSF UNTIL AS
LATE AS 15Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT VEERING TO THE
NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 192329
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 629 PM EST...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO. A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS W-CNTRL NY INTO PA.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A
PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT. T/TD/RH TRENDS REDONE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

CONTINUED TO TREND SKY COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATE TONIGHT WITHIN
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESP N OF ALBANY...WHILE HOLDING ONTO THE
CLOUDS MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. FARTHER EAST...FROM
SOUTHERN VT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT...SOME DRIER AIR WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE MAY
EVENTUALLY EXPAND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. IN
GENERAL...HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR
TEMPS...WITH MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
N/NE FROM THE DELMARVA REGION.  THIS IS ACTUALLY A SECONDARY WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE NEAR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY.

SOME MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT THE SFC AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY TUE AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.  A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WARRANTS A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  WE WILL MENTION THE LIGHT MIX OF
PCPN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U30S FROM THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO M40S TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE H500 FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
NEUTRAL-TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF RAIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO L40S.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KALB BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF
SUN TO FILTER IN A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT KPSF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TRYING
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET
AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING AT KPSF. WILL
GO WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN AND SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIMIT MVFR CEILING POTENTIAL.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500-5000 FEET AFTER
12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD ON AT KPSF UNTIL AS
LATE AS 15Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT VEERING TO THE
NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 192329
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 629 PM EST...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO. A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS W-CNTRL NY INTO PA.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A
PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT. T/TD/RH TRENDS REDONE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

CONTINUED TO TREND SKY COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATE TONIGHT WITHIN
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESP N OF ALBANY...WHILE HOLDING ONTO THE
CLOUDS MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. FARTHER EAST...FROM
SOUTHERN VT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT...SOME DRIER AIR WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE MAY
EVENTUALLY EXPAND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. IN
GENERAL...HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR
TEMPS...WITH MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
N/NE FROM THE DELMARVA REGION.  THIS IS ACTUALLY A SECONDARY WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE NEAR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY.

SOME MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT THE SFC AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY TUE AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.  A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WARRANTS A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  WE WILL MENTION THE LIGHT MIX OF
PCPN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U30S FROM THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO M40S TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE H500 FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
NEUTRAL-TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF RAIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO L40S.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KALB BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF
SUN TO FILTER IN A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT KPSF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TRYING
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET
AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING AT KPSF. WILL
GO WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN AND SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIMIT MVFR CEILING POTENTIAL.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500-5000 FEET AFTER
12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD ON AT KPSF UNTIL AS
LATE AS 15Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT VEERING TO THE
NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 192327
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
627 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. MAIN QUESTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF
PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERALL AFFECTS ON RADIATIVE COOLING/TEMPERATURES.
NWLY FLOW STEADILY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EASTWARD. COMBINED WITH PRE-EXISTING INVERSION 950-900MB
LAYER...FROUDE NUMBERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS ARE VERY LOW OVERNIGHT SUGGESTING A BLOCKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME. SUCH A REGIME SHOULD TEND TO MAINTAIN STRATUS ON UPWIND
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY EAST OF THE GREENS. HAVE TRENDED SKY
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW PARTIAL CLEARING EAST OF THE MTNS
OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD BIAS-CORRECTED NAM-MOS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS
AS STRATUS WILL LIMIT COOLING IN MOST AREAS. THIS YIELDS A LOW OF
ABOUT 17F AT KBTV (VS. 5F ON THE GFS-MOS GUIDANCE). STILL A
CHILLY NIGHT WITH AREAWIDE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID TEENS.
WILL SEE LOCALIZED SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO LOWS IN LOCATIONS
SEEING A BIT MORE CLEARING. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW-N 5-10
MPH...THEN TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR (IFR AT SLK) CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS AS DRYING BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SLK AND MPV IN
BLOCKED/SUB- CRITICAL FLOW WITH LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK EARLY
BECOME VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 192327
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
627 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. MAIN QUESTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF
PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERALL AFFECTS ON RADIATIVE COOLING/TEMPERATURES.
NWLY FLOW STEADILY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EASTWARD. COMBINED WITH PRE-EXISTING INVERSION 950-900MB
LAYER...FROUDE NUMBERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS ARE VERY LOW OVERNIGHT SUGGESTING A BLOCKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME. SUCH A REGIME SHOULD TEND TO MAINTAIN STRATUS ON UPWIND
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY EAST OF THE GREENS. HAVE TRENDED SKY
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW PARTIAL CLEARING EAST OF THE MTNS
OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD BIAS-CORRECTED NAM-MOS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS
AS STRATUS WILL LIMIT COOLING IN MOST AREAS. THIS YIELDS A LOW OF
ABOUT 17F AT KBTV (VS. 5F ON THE GFS-MOS GUIDANCE). STILL A
CHILLY NIGHT WITH AREAWIDE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID TEENS.
WILL SEE LOCALIZED SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO LOWS IN LOCATIONS
SEEING A BIT MORE CLEARING. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW-N 5-10
MPH...THEN TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR (IFR AT SLK) CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS AS DRYING BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SLK AND MPV IN
BLOCKED/SUB- CRITICAL FLOW WITH LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK EARLY
BECOME VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 192327
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
627 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. MAIN QUESTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF
PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERALL AFFECTS ON RADIATIVE COOLING/TEMPERATURES.
NWLY FLOW STEADILY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EASTWARD. COMBINED WITH PRE-EXISTING INVERSION 950-900MB
LAYER...FROUDE NUMBERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS ARE VERY LOW OVERNIGHT SUGGESTING A BLOCKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME. SUCH A REGIME SHOULD TEND TO MAINTAIN STRATUS ON UPWIND
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY EAST OF THE GREENS. HAVE TRENDED SKY
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW PARTIAL CLEARING EAST OF THE MTNS
OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD BIAS-CORRECTED NAM-MOS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS
AS STRATUS WILL LIMIT COOLING IN MOST AREAS. THIS YIELDS A LOW OF
ABOUT 17F AT KBTV (VS. 5F ON THE GFS-MOS GUIDANCE). STILL A
CHILLY NIGHT WITH AREAWIDE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID TEENS.
WILL SEE LOCALIZED SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO LOWS IN LOCATIONS
SEEING A BIT MORE CLEARING. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW-N 5-10
MPH...THEN TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR (IFR AT SLK) CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS AS DRYING BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SLK AND MPV IN
BLOCKED/SUB- CRITICAL FLOW WITH LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK EARLY
BECOME VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 192327
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
627 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. MAIN QUESTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF
PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERALL AFFECTS ON RADIATIVE COOLING/TEMPERATURES.
NWLY FLOW STEADILY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EASTWARD. COMBINED WITH PRE-EXISTING INVERSION 950-900MB
LAYER...FROUDE NUMBERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS ARE VERY LOW OVERNIGHT SUGGESTING A BLOCKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME. SUCH A REGIME SHOULD TEND TO MAINTAIN STRATUS ON UPWIND
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY EAST OF THE GREENS. HAVE TRENDED SKY
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW PARTIAL CLEARING EAST OF THE MTNS
OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD BIAS-CORRECTED NAM-MOS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS
AS STRATUS WILL LIMIT COOLING IN MOST AREAS. THIS YIELDS A LOW OF
ABOUT 17F AT KBTV (VS. 5F ON THE GFS-MOS GUIDANCE). STILL A
CHILLY NIGHT WITH AREAWIDE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID TEENS.
WILL SEE LOCALIZED SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO LOWS IN LOCATIONS
SEEING A BIT MORE CLEARING. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW-N 5-10
MPH...THEN TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR (IFR AT SLK) CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD SCT-BKN VFR CEILINGS AS DRYING BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SLK AND MPV IN
BLOCKED/SUB- CRITICAL FLOW WITH LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK EARLY
BECOME VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KALY 192112
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
412 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM EST...

TONIGHT...TOUGH CALL ON OVERALL CLEARING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
THERE SHOULD BE DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SEEPING SOUTHWARD...BUT THE
INVERSION REMAINS QUITE STRONG...AND WINDS DECREASE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND VEER MORE INTO THE N TO NE. THIS MAY
REDUCE OVERALL DOWNSLOPING POTENTIAL WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY WHERE SOME BREAKS OCCURRED DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
SO...AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN TRENDED SKY COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESP N OF ALBANY...WHILE HOLDING
ONTO THE CLOUDS MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. FARTHER
EAST...FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT...SOME DRIER
AIR WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE MAY
EVENTUALLY EXPAND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. IN
GENERAL...HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS...WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEYS AND UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
N/NE FROM THE DELMARVA REGION.  THIS IS ACTUALLY A SECONDARY WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE NEAR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY.

SOME MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT THE SFC AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY TUE AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.  A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WARRANTS A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  WE WILL MENTION THE LIGHT MIX OF
PCPN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U30S FROM THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO M40S TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE H500 FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
NEUTRAL-TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF RAIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO L40S.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KALB BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF
SUN TO FILTER IN A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT KPSF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TRYING
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET
AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING AT KPSF. WILL
GO WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN AND SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIMIT MVFR CEILING POTENTIAL.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500-5000 FEET AFTER
12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD ON AT KPSF UNTIL AS
LATE AS 15Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT VEERING TO THE
NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 192112
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
412 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM EST...

TONIGHT...TOUGH CALL ON OVERALL CLEARING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
THERE SHOULD BE DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SEEPING SOUTHWARD...BUT THE
INVERSION REMAINS QUITE STRONG...AND WINDS DECREASE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND VEER MORE INTO THE N TO NE. THIS MAY
REDUCE OVERALL DOWNSLOPING POTENTIAL WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY WHERE SOME BREAKS OCCURRED DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
SO...AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN TRENDED SKY COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESP N OF ALBANY...WHILE HOLDING
ONTO THE CLOUDS MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. FARTHER
EAST...FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT...SOME DRIER
AIR WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE MAY
EVENTUALLY EXPAND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. IN
GENERAL...HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS...WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEYS AND UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
N/NE FROM THE DELMARVA REGION.  THIS IS ACTUALLY A SECONDARY WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE NEAR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY.

SOME MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT THE SFC AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY TUE AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.  A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WARRANTS A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  WE WILL MENTION THE LIGHT MIX OF
PCPN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U30S FROM THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO M40S TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE H500 FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
NEUTRAL-TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF RAIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO L40S.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KALB BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF
SUN TO FILTER IN A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT KPSF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TRYING
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET
AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING AT KPSF. WILL
GO WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN AND SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIMIT MVFR CEILING POTENTIAL.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500-5000 FEET AFTER
12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD ON AT KPSF UNTIL AS
LATE AS 15Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT VEERING TO THE
NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KBTV 192026
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. MAIN QUESTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF
PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERALL AFFECTS ON RADIATIVE COOLING/TEMPERATURES.
NWLY FLOW STEADILY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EASTWARD. COMBINED WITH PRE-EXISTING INVERSION 950-900MB
LAYER...FROUDE NUMBERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS ARE VERY LOW OVERNIGHT SUGGESTING A BLOCKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME. SUCH A REGIME SHOULD TEND TO MAINTAIN STRATUS ON UPWIND
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY EAST OF THE GREENS. HAVE TRENDED SKY
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW PARTIAL CLEARING EAST OF THE MTNS
OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD BIAS-CORRECTED NAM-MOS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS
AS STRATUS WILL LIMIT COOLING IN MOST AREAS. THIS YIELDS A LOW OF
ABOUT 17F AT KBTV (VS. 5F ON THE GFS-MOS GUIDANCE). STILL A
CHILLY NIGHT WITH AREAWIDE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID TEENS.
WILL SEE LOCALIZED SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO LOWS IN LOCATIONS
SEEING A BIT MORE CLEARING. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW-N 5-10
MPH...THEN TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...STILL DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WITH EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. CLEARING IS
TAKING PLACE JUST OVER THE BORDER IN CANADA AND THIS EDGE IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SOME CLEARING AT KMSS...KPBG...AND KBTV
SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...THUS
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KSLK THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 192026
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. MAIN QUESTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF
PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERALL AFFECTS ON RADIATIVE COOLING/TEMPERATURES.
NWLY FLOW STEADILY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EASTWARD. COMBINED WITH PRE-EXISTING INVERSION 950-900MB
LAYER...FROUDE NUMBERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS ARE VERY LOW OVERNIGHT SUGGESTING A BLOCKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME. SUCH A REGIME SHOULD TEND TO MAINTAIN STRATUS ON UPWIND
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY EAST OF THE GREENS. HAVE TRENDED SKY
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW PARTIAL CLEARING EAST OF THE MTNS
OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD BIAS-CORRECTED NAM-MOS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS
AS STRATUS WILL LIMIT COOLING IN MOST AREAS. THIS YIELDS A LOW OF
ABOUT 17F AT KBTV (VS. 5F ON THE GFS-MOS GUIDANCE). STILL A
CHILLY NIGHT WITH AREAWIDE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID TEENS.
WILL SEE LOCALIZED SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO LOWS IN LOCATIONS
SEEING A BIT MORE CLEARING. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW-N 5-10
MPH...THEN TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...STILL DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WITH EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. CLEARING IS
TAKING PLACE JUST OVER THE BORDER IN CANADA AND THIS EDGE IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SOME CLEARING AT KMSS...KPBG...AND KBTV
SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...THUS
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KSLK THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS



000
FXUS61 KALY 191840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

 &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...TOUGH CALL ON OVERALL CLEARING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
THERE SHOULD BE DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SEEPING SOUTHWARD...BUT THE
INVERSION REMAINS QUITE STRONG...AND WINDS DECREASE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND VEER MORE INTO THE N TO NE. THIS MAY
REDUCE OVERALL DOWNSLOPING POTENTIAL WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY WHERE SOME BREAKS OCCURRED DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
SO...AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN TRENDED SKY COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESP N OF ALBANY...WHILE HOLDING
ONTO THE CLOUDS MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. FARTHER
EAST...FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT...SOME DRIER
AIR WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE MAY
EVENTUALLY EXPAND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. IN
GENERAL...HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS...WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEYS AND UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT THE SAME
TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD
OF TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KALB BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF
SUN TO FILTER IN A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT KPSF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TRYING
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET
AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING AT KPSF. WILL
GO WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN AND SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIMIT MVFR CEILING POTENTIAL.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500-5000 FEET AFTER
12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD ON AT KPSF UNTIL AS
LATE AS 15Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT VEERING TO THE
NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 191840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

 &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...TOUGH CALL ON OVERALL CLEARING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
THERE SHOULD BE DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SEEPING SOUTHWARD...BUT THE
INVERSION REMAINS QUITE STRONG...AND WINDS DECREASE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND VEER MORE INTO THE N TO NE. THIS MAY
REDUCE OVERALL DOWNSLOPING POTENTIAL WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY WHERE SOME BREAKS OCCURRED DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
SO...AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN TRENDED SKY COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESP N OF ALBANY...WHILE HOLDING
ONTO THE CLOUDS MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. FARTHER
EAST...FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT...SOME DRIER
AIR WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE MAY
EVENTUALLY EXPAND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. IN
GENERAL...HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS...WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEYS AND UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT THE SAME
TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD
OF TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KALB BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF
SUN TO FILTER IN A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT KPSF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TRYING
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET
AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING AT KPSF. WILL
GO WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN AND SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIMIT MVFR CEILING POTENTIAL.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500-5000 FEET AFTER
12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD ON AT KPSF UNTIL AS
LATE AS 15Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT VEERING TO THE
NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 191752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1239 PM EST FRIDAY...LIGHT NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY EWD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CLEARING IS GRADUALLY
WORKING SOUTHWARD FROM SRN QUEBEC/MONTREAL AREA...BUT THE NORTH
COUNTRY GENERALLY REMAINS OVERCAST AT 1745Z. FROUDE NUMBER VALUES
ARE QUITE LOW...SUGGESTING BLOCKED FLOW. TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH
PREVAILING INVERSION LAYER WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN STRATUS MOST
SECTIONS...BUT WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY GOES
ON. A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH
60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE
DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...STILL DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WITH EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. CLEARING IS
TAKING PLACE JUST OVER THE BORDER IN CANADA AND THIS EDGE IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SOME CLEARING AT KMSS...KPBG...AND KBTV
SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...THUS
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KSLK THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 191752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1239 PM EST FRIDAY...LIGHT NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY EWD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CLEARING IS GRADUALLY
WORKING SOUTHWARD FROM SRN QUEBEC/MONTREAL AREA...BUT THE NORTH
COUNTRY GENERALLY REMAINS OVERCAST AT 1745Z. FROUDE NUMBER VALUES
ARE QUITE LOW...SUGGESTING BLOCKED FLOW. TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH
PREVAILING INVERSION LAYER WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN STRATUS MOST
SECTIONS...BUT WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY GOES
ON. A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH
60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE
DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...STILL DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WITH EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. CLEARING IS
TAKING PLACE JUST OVER THE BORDER IN CANADA AND THIS EDGE IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SOME CLEARING AT KMSS...KPBG...AND KBTV
SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...THUS
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KSLK THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 191739
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1239 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EST FRIDAY...LIGHT NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EWD FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. FROUDE NUMBER VALUES ARE QUITE LOW...SUGGESTING
BLOCKED FLOW. TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH PREVAILING INVERSION LAYER
WILL MAINTAIN STRATUS MOST SECTIONS...BUT WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EAST OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY GOES ON. A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THIS
REPRESENTS LITTLE RISE FROM READINGS THIS MORNING...OWING TO
PREVAILING STRATUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH
60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE
DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...STILL DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WITH EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. CLEARING IS
TAKING PLACE JUST OVER THE BORDER IN CANADA AND THIS EDGE IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SOME CLEARING AT KMSS...KPBG...AND KBTV
SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...THUS
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KSLK THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 191739
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1239 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EST FRIDAY...LIGHT NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EWD FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. FROUDE NUMBER VALUES ARE QUITE LOW...SUGGESTING
BLOCKED FLOW. TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH PREVAILING INVERSION LAYER
WILL MAINTAIN STRATUS MOST SECTIONS...BUT WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EAST OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY GOES ON. A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THIS
REPRESENTS LITTLE RISE FROM READINGS THIS MORNING...OWING TO
PREVAILING STRATUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH
60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE
DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...STILL DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WITH EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. CLEARING IS
TAKING PLACE JUST OVER THE BORDER IN CANADA AND THIS EDGE IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SOME CLEARING AT KMSS...KPBG...AND KBTV
SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...THUS
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KSLK THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS



000
FXUS61 KALY 191731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER
RECENTLY WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1145 AM EST...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THESE BREAKS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO FILL BACK IN. WITH THIS UPDATE...WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHILE
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR OTHER AREAS. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...SE VT...AND EVENTUALLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

PATCHY FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE INTO THE NORTH BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO ANY
CHANCES WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH...WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS MAINLY REACHING
THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS FROM ALBANY N AND W...AND 35-40 TO
THE SOUTH...WITH 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WE LOSE MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WILL
HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

EXPECTING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER.
UNFORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN INCREASES AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES
ITSELF RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING SOME. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MOVING UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A LOT OF QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STILL...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...IT/S POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT
THE SAME TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY
RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KALB BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF
SUN TO FILTER IN A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT KPSF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TRYING
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET
AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING AT KPSF. WILL
GO WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN AND SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIMIT MVFR CEILING POTENTIAL.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500-5000 FEET AFTER
12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD ON AT KPSF UNTIL AS
LATE AS 15Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT VEERING TO THE
NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 191731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER
RECENTLY WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1145 AM EST...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THESE BREAKS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO FILL BACK IN. WITH THIS UPDATE...WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHILE
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR OTHER AREAS. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...SE VT...AND EVENTUALLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

PATCHY FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE INTO THE NORTH BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO ANY
CHANCES WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH...WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS MAINLY REACHING
THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS FROM ALBANY N AND W...AND 35-40 TO
THE SOUTH...WITH 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WE LOSE MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WILL
HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

EXPECTING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER.
UNFORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN INCREASES AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES
ITSELF RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING SOME. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MOVING UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A LOT OF QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STILL...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...IT/S POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT
THE SAME TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY
RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KALB BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF
SUN TO FILTER IN A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT KPSF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TRYING
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET
AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING AT KPSF. WILL
GO WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN AND SCOUR OUT
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIMIT MVFR CEILING POTENTIAL.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500-5000 FEET AFTER
12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD ON AT KPSF UNTIL AS
LATE AS 15Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT VEERING TO THE
NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 191638
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1138 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER
RECENTLY WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1145 AM EST...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THESE BREAKS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO FILL BACK IN. WITH THIS UPDATE...WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHILE
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR OTHER AREAS. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...SE VT...AND EVENTUALLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

PATCHY FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE INTO THE NORTH BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO ANY
CHANCES WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH...WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS MAINLY REACHING
THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS FROM ALBANY N AND W...AND 35-40 TO
THE SOUTH...WITH 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WE LOSE MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WILL
HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

EXPECTING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER.
UNFORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN INCREASES AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES
ITSELF RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING SOME. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MOVING UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A LOT OF QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STILL...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...IT/S POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT
THE SAME TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY
RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION OVER
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS KEEPING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT AROUND
3500-4500 FT FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...AND AROUND 2500 FT AT
KPSF...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW IS CAUSING SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN THE
BERKSHIRES.

THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
CIGS MAY EVEN LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 3 KFT FOR A
PERIOD IN THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR
THRESHOLDS...AND NO PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR TODAY.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR THE VALLEY SITES IN THE AFTN...BUT LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LOWER BACK DOWN TO MVFR
LEVELS FOR TONIGHT.

W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 191638
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1138 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER
RECENTLY WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1145 AM EST...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THESE BREAKS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO FILL BACK IN. WITH THIS UPDATE...WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHILE
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR OTHER AREAS. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...SE VT...AND EVENTUALLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

PATCHY FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE INTO THE NORTH BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO ANY
CHANCES WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH...WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS MAINLY REACHING
THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS FROM ALBANY N AND W...AND 35-40 TO
THE SOUTH...WITH 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WE LOSE MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WILL
HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

EXPECTING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER.
UNFORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN INCREASES AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES
ITSELF RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING SOME. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MOVING UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A LOT OF QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STILL...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...IT/S POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT
THE SAME TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY
RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION OVER
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS KEEPING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT AROUND
3500-4500 FT FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...AND AROUND 2500 FT AT
KPSF...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW IS CAUSING SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN THE
BERKSHIRES.

THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
CIGS MAY EVEN LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 3 KFT FOR A
PERIOD IN THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR
THRESHOLDS...AND NO PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR TODAY.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR THE VALLEY SITES IN THE AFTN...BUT LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LOWER BACK DOWN TO MVFR
LEVELS FOR TONIGHT.

W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 191445
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
945 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EST FRIDAY...LIGHT NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EWD FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. FROUDE NUMBER VALUES ARE QUITE LOW...SUGGESTING
BLOCKED FLOW. TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH PREVAILING INVERSION LAYER
WILL MAINTAIN STRATUS MOST SECTIONS...BUT WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EAST OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY GOES ON. A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THIS
REPRESENTS LITTLE RISE FROM READINGS THIS MORNING...OWING TO
PREVAILING STRATUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH
60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE
DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT MPV THIS MORNING AND IFR
CONTINUING AT SLK INTO TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN AT
BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS EXPECTED. COULD ALSO BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SAME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. SITES MOST LIKELY
TO SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ARE PBG THIS AFTERNOON AND MSS TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...EXCEPT
LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 191445
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
945 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EST FRIDAY...LIGHT NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EWD FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. FROUDE NUMBER VALUES ARE QUITE LOW...SUGGESTING
BLOCKED FLOW. TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH PREVAILING INVERSION LAYER
WILL MAINTAIN STRATUS MOST SECTIONS...BUT WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EAST OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY GOES ON. A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THIS
REPRESENTS LITTLE RISE FROM READINGS THIS MORNING...OWING TO
PREVAILING STRATUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH
60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE
DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT MPV THIS MORNING AND IFR
CONTINUING AT SLK INTO TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN AT
BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS EXPECTED. COULD ALSO BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SAME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. SITES MOST LIKELY
TO SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ARE PBG THIS AFTERNOON AND MSS TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...EXCEPT
LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KALY 191440
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
940 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER
RECENTLY WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EST...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SOME VERY WEAK RADAR
RETURNS...SUGGESTING FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS...CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/HELDERBERGS AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW FLURRIES OCCASIONALLY EXTENDING INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY INDEED EXPAND SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE HUDSON
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AS SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING COMBINES WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ADIRONDACKS. MAY
NEED TO REDUCE CLOUD COVERAGE WITH NEXT UPDATE PENDING TRENDS IN
VIS SATELLITE/SFC OBS.

THE FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE INTO THE NORTH BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING
MUCH...ALTHOUGH IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP/EXPAND
SOUTHWARD...MAX TEMPS COULD REBOUND BY AT LEAST 3-5 DEGREES FROM
CURRENT LEVELS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. FOR NOW...STILL EXPECTING
MAINLY LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS FROM ALBANY N AND W...AND 35-40 TO
THE SOUTH...WITH MAINLY 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WE LOSE MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WILL
HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

EXPECTING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER.
UNFORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN INCREASES AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES
ITSELF RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING SOME. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MOVING UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A LOT OF QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STILL...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...IT/S POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT
THE SAME TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY
RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION OVER
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS KEEPING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT AROUND
3500-4500 FT FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...AND AROUND 2500 FT AT
KPSF...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW IS CAUSING SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN THE
BERKSHIRES.

THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
CIGS MAY EVEN LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 3 KFT FOR A
PERIOD IN THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR
THRESHOLDS...AND NO PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR TODAY.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR THE VALLEY SITES IN THE AFTN...BUT LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LOWER BACK DOWN TO MVFR
LEVELS FOR TONIGHT.

W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 191155
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
655 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 622 AM EST FRIDAY...BLOCKED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING THIS MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH
60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE
DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT MPV THIS MORNING AND IFR
CONTINUING AT SLK INTO TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN AT
BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS EXPECTED. COULD ALSO BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SAME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. SITES MOST LIKELY
TO SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ARE PBG THIS AFTERNOON AND MSS TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...EXCEPT
LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KALY 191142
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER
RECENTLY WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE VERTICAL STACKED LOW LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS
STILL DOMINATING OUR WEATHER WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION.
THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WITH RIDGING
BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL BEGIN TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD.
SOME SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOME OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
PICK MOISTURE UP FROM LAKE ONTARIO IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE
CLOUD COVER INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO
WITH THAT COMES THE THREAT/CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY
AND EASTERN CATSKILLS MAINLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
RISE MUCH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WE LOSE MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WILL
HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

EXPECTING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER.
UNFORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN INCREASES AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES
ITSELF RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING SOME. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MOVING UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A LOT OF QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STILL...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...IT/S POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT
THE SAME TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY
RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION OVER
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS KEEPING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT AROUND
3500-4500 FT FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...AND AROUND 2500 FT AT
KPSF...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW IS CAUSING SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN THE
BERKSHIRES.

THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
CIGS MAY EVEN LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 3 KFT FOR A
PERIOD IN THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR
THRESHOLDS...AND NO PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR TODAY.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR THE VALLEY SITES IN THE AFTN...BUT LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LOWER BACK DOWN TO MVFR
LEVELS FOR TONIGHT.

W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 191142
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER
RECENTLY WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE VERTICAL STACKED LOW LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS
STILL DOMINATING OUR WEATHER WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION.
THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WITH RIDGING
BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL BEGIN TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD.
SOME SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOME OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
PICK MOISTURE UP FROM LAKE ONTARIO IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE
CLOUD COVER INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO
WITH THAT COMES THE THREAT/CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY
AND EASTERN CATSKILLS MAINLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
RISE MUCH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WE LOSE MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WILL
HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

EXPECTING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER.
UNFORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN INCREASES AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES
ITSELF RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING SOME. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MOVING UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A LOT OF QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STILL...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...IT/S POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT
THE SAME TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY
RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION OVER
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS KEEPING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT AROUND
3500-4500 FT FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...AND AROUND 2500 FT AT
KPSF...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW IS CAUSING SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN THE
BERKSHIRES.

THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
CIGS MAY EVEN LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 3 KFT FOR A
PERIOD IN THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR
THRESHOLDS...AND NO PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR TODAY.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR THE VALLEY SITES IN THE AFTN...BUT LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LOWER BACK DOWN TO MVFR
LEVELS FOR TONIGHT.

W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 191142
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER
RECENTLY WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE VERTICAL STACKED LOW LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS
STILL DOMINATING OUR WEATHER WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION.
THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WITH RIDGING
BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL BEGIN TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD.
SOME SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOME OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
PICK MOISTURE UP FROM LAKE ONTARIO IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE
CLOUD COVER INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO
WITH THAT COMES THE THREAT/CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY
AND EASTERN CATSKILLS MAINLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
RISE MUCH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WE LOSE MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WILL
HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

EXPECTING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER.
UNFORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN INCREASES AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES
ITSELF RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING SOME. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MOVING UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A LOT OF QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STILL...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...IT/S POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT
THE SAME TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY
RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION OVER
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS KEEPING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT AROUND
3500-4500 FT FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...AND AROUND 2500 FT AT
KPSF...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW IS CAUSING SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN THE
BERKSHIRES.

THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
CIGS MAY EVEN LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 3 KFT FOR A
PERIOD IN THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR
THRESHOLDS...AND NO PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR TODAY.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR THE VALLEY SITES IN THE AFTN...BUT LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LOWER BACK DOWN TO MVFR
LEVELS FOR TONIGHT.

W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 191142
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER
RECENTLY WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE VERTICAL STACKED LOW LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS
STILL DOMINATING OUR WEATHER WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION.
THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WITH RIDGING
BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL BEGIN TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD.
SOME SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOME OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
PICK MOISTURE UP FROM LAKE ONTARIO IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE
CLOUD COVER INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO
WITH THAT COMES THE THREAT/CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY
AND EASTERN CATSKILLS MAINLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
RISE MUCH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WE LOSE MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WILL
HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

EXPECTING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER.
UNFORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN INCREASES AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES
ITSELF RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING SOME. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MOVING UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A LOT OF QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STILL...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...IT/S POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT
THE SAME TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN.
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY
RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION OVER
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS KEEPING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT AROUND
3500-4500 FT FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...AND AROUND 2500 FT AT
KPSF...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW IS CAUSING SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN THE
BERKSHIRES.

THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
CIGS MAY EVEN LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 3 KFT FOR A
PERIOD IN THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR
THRESHOLDS...AND NO PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR TODAY.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR THE VALLEY SITES IN THE AFTN...BUT LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LOWER BACK DOWN TO MVFR
LEVELS FOR TONIGHT.

W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KBTV 191123
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
623 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 622 AM EST FRIDAY...BLOCKED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING THIS MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH
60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE
DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT
SLK ON FRIDAY. PBG IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION WHERE SOME LOCAL
DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AND THAT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN AT BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z...POSSIBLY LASTING TO 15Z AT MPV/SLK. HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED...IF
ANY AT ALL. COULD ALSO BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT SAME SITES OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 191123
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
623 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 622 AM EST FRIDAY...BLOCKED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING THIS MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH
60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE
DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT
SLK ON FRIDAY. PBG IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION WHERE SOME LOCAL
DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AND THAT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN AT BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z...POSSIBLY LASTING TO 15Z AT MPV/SLK. HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED...IF
ANY AT ALL. COULD ALSO BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT SAME SITES OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI



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