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000
FXUS61 KALY 021444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS...OR STRATUS
TRANSITIONING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS STILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM
RAPIDLY AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY.
GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO BE BETWEEN 80 AND 90 WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT GREATER THAN
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. THEREFORE...WE
ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND
80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT
HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90 ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL-KPSF WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AND JOIN THE
VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB-KPOU.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM INTO MID
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS.

TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 021444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS...OR STRATUS
TRANSITIONING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS STILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM
RAPIDLY AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY.
GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO BE BETWEEN 80 AND 90 WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT GREATER THAN
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. THEREFORE...WE
ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND
80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT
HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90 ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL-KPSF WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AND JOIN THE
VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB-KPOU.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM INTO MID
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS.

TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL



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000
FXUS61 KBTV 021431
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1031 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 14Z
INDICATES THAT LOW STRATUS LAYER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND MUCH OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS CONTINUES TO HOLD.
SUBSIDENCE/INVERSION LAYER AROUND 850MB PER NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS AND
WEAK WIND FIELDS ARE SLOWING THE RATE OF PBL
DEEPENING/MIXING...AND HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO SHOW A SLOWER
RATE OF CLEARING THRU EARLY AFTN. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH
COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS...THEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM NORTH OF
THE BORDER. THE SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C THIS
AFTERNOON SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS. A BIT MORE HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
MEAN UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN DROP SOUTH
ACROSS REST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY.

CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT
CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT DUE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT 15-30 POPS FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. CLOUDS
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED 40-50 POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THURSDAY...BUT ONLY AROUND 20 POP FOR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND SPREADS SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH
STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. APEX OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING WEATHER
WILL BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. HIGHLIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
WHICH WILL START OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR SATURDAY,
BUMPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN
HAVE A COUPLE SHOTS AT A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS
MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT STARTING OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S, BUT BECOME MILDER THEREAFTER RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR WILL PERSIST AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV UNTIL 14Z WHEN THEREAFTER CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR
UNDER RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER 00Z, AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASING LOW/MID CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME SO WILL ALLOW NEXT TAF CYCLE TO ADDRESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. CHANCE TSRA THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 021431
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1031 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 14Z
INDICATES THAT LOW STRATUS LAYER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND MUCH OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS CONTINUES TO HOLD.
SUBSIDENCE/INVERSION LAYER AROUND 850MB PER NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS AND
WEAK WIND FIELDS ARE SLOWING THE RATE OF PBL
DEEPENING/MIXING...AND HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO SHOW A SLOWER
RATE OF CLEARING THRU EARLY AFTN. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH
COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS...THEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM NORTH OF
THE BORDER. THE SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C THIS
AFTERNOON SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS. A BIT MORE HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
MEAN UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN DROP SOUTH
ACROSS REST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY.

CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT
CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT DUE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT 15-30 POPS FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. CLOUDS
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED 40-50 POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THURSDAY...BUT ONLY AROUND 20 POP FOR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND SPREADS SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH
STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. APEX OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING WEATHER
WILL BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. HIGHLIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
WHICH WILL START OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR SATURDAY,
BUMPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN
HAVE A COUPLE SHOTS AT A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS
MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT STARTING OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S, BUT BECOME MILDER THEREAFTER RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR WILL PERSIST AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV UNTIL 14Z WHEN THEREAFTER CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR
UNDER RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER 00Z, AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASING LOW/MID CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME SO WILL ALLOW NEXT TAF CYCLE TO ADDRESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. CHANCE TSRA THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021431
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1031 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 14Z
INDICATES THAT LOW STRATUS LAYER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND MUCH OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS CONTINUES TO HOLD.
SUBSIDENCE/INVERSION LAYER AROUND 850MB PER NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS AND
WEAK WIND FIELDS ARE SLOWING THE RATE OF PBL
DEEPENING/MIXING...AND HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO SHOW A SLOWER
RATE OF CLEARING THRU EARLY AFTN. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH
COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS...THEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM NORTH OF
THE BORDER. THE SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C THIS
AFTERNOON SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS. A BIT MORE HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
MEAN UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN DROP SOUTH
ACROSS REST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY.

CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT
CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT DUE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT 15-30 POPS FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. CLOUDS
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED 40-50 POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THURSDAY...BUT ONLY AROUND 20 POP FOR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND SPREADS SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH
STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. APEX OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING WEATHER
WILL BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. HIGHLIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
WHICH WILL START OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR SATURDAY,
BUMPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN
HAVE A COUPLE SHOTS AT A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS
MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT STARTING OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S, BUT BECOME MILDER THEREAFTER RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR WILL PERSIST AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV UNTIL 14Z WHEN THEREAFTER CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR
UNDER RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER 00Z, AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASING LOW/MID CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME SO WILL ALLOW NEXT TAF CYCLE TO ADDRESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. CHANCE TSRA THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 021431
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1031 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 14Z
INDICATES THAT LOW STRATUS LAYER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND MUCH OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS CONTINUES TO HOLD.
SUBSIDENCE/INVERSION LAYER AROUND 850MB PER NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS AND
WEAK WIND FIELDS ARE SLOWING THE RATE OF PBL
DEEPENING/MIXING...AND HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO SHOW A SLOWER
RATE OF CLEARING THRU EARLY AFTN. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH
COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS...THEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM NORTH OF
THE BORDER. THE SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C THIS
AFTERNOON SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS. A BIT MORE HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
MEAN UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN DROP SOUTH
ACROSS REST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY.

CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT
CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT DUE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT 15-30 POPS FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. CLOUDS
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED 40-50 POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THURSDAY...BUT ONLY AROUND 20 POP FOR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND SPREADS SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH
STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. APEX OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING WEATHER
WILL BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. HIGHLIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
WHICH WILL START OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR SATURDAY,
BUMPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN
HAVE A COUPLE SHOTS AT A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS
MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT STARTING OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S, BUT BECOME MILDER THEREAFTER RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR WILL PERSIST AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV UNTIL 14Z WHEN THEREAFTER CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR
UNDER RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER 00Z, AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASING LOW/MID CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME SO WILL ALLOW NEXT TAF CYCLE TO ADDRESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. CHANCE TSRA THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021123
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
723 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 713 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS...THEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM NORTH OF
THE BORDER. THE SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C THIS
AFTERNOON SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS. A BIT MORE HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
MEAN UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN DROP SOUTH
ACROSS REST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY.

CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT
CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT DUE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT 15-30 POPS FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. CLOUDS
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED 40-50 POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THURSDAY...BUT ONLY AROUND 20 POP FOR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND SPREADS SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH
STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. APEX OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING WEATHER
WILL BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. HIGHLIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
WHICH WILL START OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR SATURDAY,
BUMPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN
HAVE A COUPLE SHOTS AT A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS
MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT STARTING OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S, BUT BECOME MILDER THEREAFTER RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR WILL PERSIST AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV UNTIL 14Z WHEN THEREAFTER CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR
UNDER RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER 00Z, AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASING LOW/MID CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME SO WILL ALLOW NEXT TAF CYCLE TO ADDRESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. CHANCE TSRA THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 021123
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
723 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 713 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS...THEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM NORTH OF
THE BORDER. THE SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C THIS
AFTERNOON SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS. A BIT MORE HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
MEAN UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN DROP SOUTH
ACROSS REST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY.

CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT
CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT DUE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT 15-30 POPS FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. CLOUDS
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED 40-50 POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THURSDAY...BUT ONLY AROUND 20 POP FOR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND SPREADS SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH
STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. APEX OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING WEATHER
WILL BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. HIGHLIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
WHICH WILL START OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR SATURDAY,
BUMPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN
HAVE A COUPLE SHOTS AT A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS
MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT STARTING OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S, BUT BECOME MILDER THEREAFTER RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR WILL PERSIST AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV UNTIL 14Z WHEN THEREAFTER CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR
UNDER RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER 00Z, AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASING LOW/MID CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME SO WILL ALLOW NEXT TAF CYCLE TO ADDRESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. CHANCE TSRA THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 021123
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
723 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 713 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS...THEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM NORTH OF
THE BORDER. THE SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C THIS
AFTERNOON SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS. A BIT MORE HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
MEAN UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN DROP SOUTH
ACROSS REST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY.

CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT
CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT DUE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT 15-30 POPS FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. CLOUDS
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED 40-50 POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THURSDAY...BUT ONLY AROUND 20 POP FOR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND SPREADS SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH
STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. APEX OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING WEATHER
WILL BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. HIGHLIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
WHICH WILL START OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR SATURDAY,
BUMPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN
HAVE A COUPLE SHOTS AT A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS
MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT STARTING OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S, BUT BECOME MILDER THEREAFTER RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR WILL PERSIST AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV UNTIL 14Z WHEN THEREAFTER CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR
UNDER RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER 00Z, AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASING LOW/MID CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME SO WILL ALLOW NEXT TAF CYCLE TO ADDRESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. CHANCE TSRA THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021123
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
723 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 713 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS...THEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM NORTH OF
THE BORDER. THE SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C THIS
AFTERNOON SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS. A BIT MORE HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
MEAN UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN DROP SOUTH
ACROSS REST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY.

CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT
CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT DUE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT 15-30 POPS FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. CLOUDS
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED 40-50 POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THURSDAY...BUT ONLY AROUND 20 POP FOR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND SPREADS SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH
STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. APEX OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING WEATHER
WILL BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. HIGHLIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
WHICH WILL START OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR SATURDAY,
BUMPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN
HAVE A COUPLE SHOTS AT A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS
MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT STARTING OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S, BUT BECOME MILDER THEREAFTER RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR WILL PERSIST AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV UNTIL 14Z WHEN THEREAFTER CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR
UNDER RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER 00Z, AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASING LOW/MID CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME SO WILL ALLOW NEXT TAF CYCLE TO ADDRESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. CHANCE TSRA THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021116
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
716 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 713 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS...THEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM NORTH OF
THE BORDER. THE SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C THIS
AFTERNOON SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS. A BIT MORE HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
MEAN UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN DROP SOUTH
ACROSS REST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY.

CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT
CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT DUE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT 15-30 POPS FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. CLOUDS
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED 40-50 POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THURSDAY...BUT ONLY AROUND 20 POP FOR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND SPREADS SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH
STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. APEX OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING WEATHER
WILL BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. HIGHLIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
WHICH WILL START OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR SATURDAY,
BUMPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN
HAVE A COUPLE SHOTS AT A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS
MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT STARTING OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S, BUT BECOME MILDER THEREAFTER RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN BR/FG ARE LIKELY
AT KMPV/KSLK/KMSS IN THE 06-14Z TIME FRAME WITH SOME MVFR BR
LIKELY AT KBTV/KPBG. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AFTER 14Z UNDER
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021116
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
716 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 713 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS...THEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM NORTH OF
THE BORDER. THE SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C THIS
AFTERNOON SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS. A BIT MORE HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
MEAN UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN DROP SOUTH
ACROSS REST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY.

CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT
CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT DUE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT 15-30 POPS FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. CLOUDS
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED 40-50 POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THURSDAY...BUT ONLY AROUND 20 POP FOR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND SPREADS SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH
STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. APEX OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING WEATHER
WILL BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. HIGHLIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
WHICH WILL START OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR SATURDAY,
BUMPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN
HAVE A COUPLE SHOTS AT A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS
MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT STARTING OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S, BUT BECOME MILDER THEREAFTER RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN BR/FG ARE LIKELY
AT KMPV/KSLK/KMSS IN THE 06-14Z TIME FRAME WITH SOME MVFR BR
LIKELY AT KBTV/KPBG. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AFTER 14Z UNDER
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 021116
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
716 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 713 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS...THEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM NORTH OF
THE BORDER. THE SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C THIS
AFTERNOON SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS. A BIT MORE HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
MEAN UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN DROP SOUTH
ACROSS REST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY.

CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT
CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT DUE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT 15-30 POPS FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. CLOUDS
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED 40-50 POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THURSDAY...BUT ONLY AROUND 20 POP FOR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND SPREADS SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH
STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. APEX OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING WEATHER
WILL BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. HIGHLIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
WHICH WILL START OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR SATURDAY,
BUMPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN
HAVE A COUPLE SHOTS AT A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS
MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT STARTING OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S, BUT BECOME MILDER THEREAFTER RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN BR/FG ARE LIKELY
AT KMPV/KSLK/KMSS IN THE 06-14Z TIME FRAME WITH SOME MVFR BR
LIKELY AT KBTV/KPBG. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AFTER 14Z UNDER
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021116
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
716 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 713 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS...THEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM NORTH OF
THE BORDER. THE SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C THIS
AFTERNOON SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS. A BIT MORE HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
MEAN UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN DROP SOUTH
ACROSS REST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY.

CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT
CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT DUE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT 15-30 POPS FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. CLOUDS
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED 40-50 POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THURSDAY...BUT ONLY AROUND 20 POP FOR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND SPREADS SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH
STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. APEX OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING WEATHER
WILL BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. HIGHLIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
WHICH WILL START OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR SATURDAY,
BUMPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN
HAVE A COUPLE SHOTS AT A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS
MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT STARTING OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S, BUT BECOME MILDER THEREAFTER RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN BR/FG ARE LIKELY
AT KMPV/KSLK/KMSS IN THE 06-14Z TIME FRAME WITH SOME MVFR BR
LIKELY AT KBTV/KPBG. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AFTER 14Z UNDER
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 021043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
643 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAVE PROVIDED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

ALSO...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S OR LOWER...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY AND THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALSO FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10 AM...GIVING
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT
GREATER THAN TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A
BIT HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL-KPSF WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AND JOIN THE
VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB-KPOU.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM INTO MID
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS.

TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 021043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
643 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAVE PROVIDED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

ALSO...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S OR LOWER...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY AND THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALSO FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10 AM...GIVING
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT
GREATER THAN TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A
BIT HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL-KPSF WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AND JOIN THE
VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB-KPOU.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM INTO MID
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS.

TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 021043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
643 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAVE PROVIDED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

ALSO...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S OR LOWER...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY AND THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALSO FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10 AM...GIVING
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT
GREATER THAN TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A
BIT HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL-KPSF WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AND JOIN THE
VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB-KPOU.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM INTO MID
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS.

TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 021043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
643 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAVE PROVIDED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

ALSO...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S OR LOWER...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY AND THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALSO FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10 AM...GIVING
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT
GREATER THAN TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A
BIT HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL-KPSF WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AND JOIN THE
VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB-KPOU.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM INTO MID
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS.

TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 021028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
628 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAVE PROVIDED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

ALSO...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S OR LOWER...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY AND THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALSO FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10 AM...GIVING
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT
GREATER THAN TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A
BIT HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  PER PREVIOUS TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS TO BE SATISFIED WOULD BE AT KGFL-KPSF.  SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KPOU-KALB AS WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AT KALB WHERE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS MAY DRIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AIRPORT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 021028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
628 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAVE PROVIDED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

ALSO...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S OR LOWER...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY AND THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALSO FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10 AM...GIVING
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT
GREATER THAN TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A
BIT HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  PER PREVIOUS TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS TO BE SATISFIED WOULD BE AT KGFL-KPSF.  SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KPOU-KALB AS WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AT KALB WHERE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS MAY DRIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AIRPORT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 021028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
628 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAVE PROVIDED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

ALSO...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S OR LOWER...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY AND THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALSO FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10 AM...GIVING
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT
GREATER THAN TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A
BIT HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  PER PREVIOUS TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS TO BE SATISFIED WOULD BE AT KGFL-KPSF.  SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KPOU-KALB AS WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AT KALB WHERE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS MAY DRIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AIRPORT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 020819
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAVE PROVIDED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. EXPECT TEMPS TO
FALL ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE.

ALSO...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S OR LOWER...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10 AM...GIVING
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT
GREATER THAN TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A
BIT HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  PER PREVIOUS TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS TO BE SATISFIED WOULD BE AT KGFL-KPSF.  SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KPOU-KALB AS WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AT KALB WHERE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS MAY DRIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AIRPORT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 020819
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAVE PROVIDED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. EXPECT TEMPS TO
FALL ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE.

ALSO...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S OR LOWER...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10 AM...GIVING
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT
GREATER THAN TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A
BIT HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  PER PREVIOUS TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS TO BE SATISFIED WOULD BE AT KGFL-KPSF.  SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KPOU-KALB AS WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AT KALB WHERE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS MAY DRIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AIRPORT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 020819
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAVE PROVIDED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. EXPECT TEMPS TO
FALL ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE.

ALSO...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S OR LOWER...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10 AM...GIVING
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT
GREATER THAN TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A
BIT HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  PER PREVIOUS TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS TO BE SATISFIED WOULD BE AT KGFL-KPSF.  SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KPOU-KALB AS WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AT KALB WHERE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS MAY DRIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AIRPORT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 020819
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAVE PROVIDED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. EXPECT TEMPS TO
FALL ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE.

ALSO...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S OR LOWER...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10 AM...GIVING
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT
GREATER THAN TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A
BIT HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  PER PREVIOUS TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS TO BE SATISFIED WOULD BE AT KGFL-KPSF.  SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KPOU-KALB AS WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AT KALB WHERE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS MAY DRIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AIRPORT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020802
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG...THEN PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS DUE TO
APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE
SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C THIS AFTERNOON
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
90 DEGREE READINGS. A BIT MORE HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
MEAN UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN DROP SOUTH
ACROSS REST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY.

CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT
CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT DUE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT 15-30 POPS FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. CLOUDS
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED 40-50 POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THURSDAY...BUT ONLY AROUND 20 POP FOR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND SPREADS SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH
STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. APEX OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING WEATHER
WILL BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. HIGHLIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
WHICH WILL START OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR SATURDAY,
BUMPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN
HAVE A COUPLE SHOTS AT A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS
MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT STARTING OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S, BUT BECOME MILDER THEREAFTER RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN BR/FG ARE LIKELY
AT KMPV/KSLK/KMSS IN THE 06-14Z TIME FRAME WITH SOME MVFR BR
LIKELY AT KBTV/KPBG. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AFTER 14Z UNDER
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020802
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG...THEN PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS DUE TO
APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE
SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C THIS AFTERNOON
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
90 DEGREE READINGS. A BIT MORE HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
MEAN UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN DROP SOUTH
ACROSS REST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY.

CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT
CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT DUE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT 15-30 POPS FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. CLOUDS
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED 40-50 POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THURSDAY...BUT ONLY AROUND 20 POP FOR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND SPREADS SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH
STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. APEX OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING WEATHER
WILL BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. HIGHLIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
WHICH WILL START OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR SATURDAY,
BUMPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN
HAVE A COUPLE SHOTS AT A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS
MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT STARTING OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S, BUT BECOME MILDER THEREAFTER RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN BR/FG ARE LIKELY
AT KMPV/KSLK/KMSS IN THE 06-14Z TIME FRAME WITH SOME MVFR BR
LIKELY AT KBTV/KPBG. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AFTER 14Z UNDER
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020802
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG...THEN PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS DUE TO
APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE
SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C THIS AFTERNOON
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
90 DEGREE READINGS. A BIT MORE HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
MEAN UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN DROP SOUTH
ACROSS REST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY.

CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT
CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT DUE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT 15-30 POPS FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. CLOUDS
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED 40-50 POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THURSDAY...BUT ONLY AROUND 20 POP FOR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND SPREADS SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH
STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. APEX OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING WEATHER
WILL BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. HIGHLIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
WHICH WILL START OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR SATURDAY,
BUMPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN
HAVE A COUPLE SHOTS AT A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS
MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT STARTING OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S, BUT BECOME MILDER THEREAFTER RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN BR/FG ARE LIKELY
AT KMPV/KSLK/KMSS IN THE 06-14Z TIME FRAME WITH SOME MVFR BR
LIKELY AT KBTV/KPBG. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AFTER 14Z UNDER
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020802
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG...THEN PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS DUE TO
APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE
SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C THIS AFTERNOON
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
90 DEGREE READINGS. A BIT MORE HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
MEAN UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN DROP SOUTH
ACROSS REST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY.

CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT
CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT DUE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT 15-30 POPS FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. CLOUDS
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED 40-50 POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THURSDAY...BUT ONLY AROUND 20 POP FOR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND SPREADS SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH
STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. APEX OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING WEATHER
WILL BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. HIGHLIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
WHICH WILL START OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR SATURDAY,
BUMPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN
HAVE A COUPLE SHOTS AT A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS
MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT STARTING OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S, BUT BECOME MILDER THEREAFTER RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN BR/FG ARE LIKELY
AT KMPV/KSLK/KMSS IN THE 06-14Z TIME FRAME WITH SOME MVFR BR
LIKELY AT KBTV/KPBG. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AFTER 14Z UNDER
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020700
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST NUMBERS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED
COVERAGE OF FOG JUST A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE VISBILITIES ALREADY REDUCED IN MANY SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. APEX OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING WEATHER
WILL BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. HIGHLIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
WHICH WILL START OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR SATURDAY,
BUMPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN
HAVE A COUPLE SHOTS AT A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS
MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT STARTING OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S, BUT BECOME MILDER THEREAFTER RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN BR/FG ARE LIKELY
AT KMPV/KSLK/KMSS IN THE 06-14Z TIME FRAME WITH SOME MVFR BR
LIKELY AT KBTV/KPBG. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AFTER 14Z UNDER
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020700
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST NUMBERS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED
COVERAGE OF FOG JUST A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE VISBILITIES ALREADY REDUCED IN MANY SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. APEX OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING WEATHER
WILL BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. HIGHLIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
WHICH WILL START OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR SATURDAY,
BUMPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN
HAVE A COUPLE SHOTS AT A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS
MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT STARTING OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S, BUT BECOME MILDER THEREAFTER RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN BR/FG ARE LIKELY
AT KMPV/KSLK/KMSS IN THE 06-14Z TIME FRAME WITH SOME MVFR BR
LIKELY AT KBTV/KPBG. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AFTER 14Z UNDER
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020700
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST NUMBERS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED
COVERAGE OF FOG JUST A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE VISBILITIES ALREADY REDUCED IN MANY SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. APEX OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING WEATHER
WILL BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. HIGHLIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
WHICH WILL START OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR SATURDAY,
BUMPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN
HAVE A COUPLE SHOTS AT A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS
MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT STARTING OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S, BUT BECOME MILDER THEREAFTER RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN BR/FG ARE LIKELY
AT KMPV/KSLK/KMSS IN THE 06-14Z TIME FRAME WITH SOME MVFR BR
LIKELY AT KBTV/KPBG. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AFTER 14Z UNDER
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 020530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND INDEED SOME TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER/MID
50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM...AND
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
HUDSON/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE CT AND HOUSATONIC
RIVER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  PER PREVIOUS TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS TO BE SATISFIED WOULD BE AT KGFL-KPSF.  SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KPOU-KALB AS WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AT KALB WHERE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS MAY DRIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AIRPORT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 020530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND INDEED SOME TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER/MID
50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM...AND
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
HUDSON/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE CT AND HOUSATONIC
RIVER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  PER PREVIOUS TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS TO BE SATISFIED WOULD BE AT KGFL-KPSF.  SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KPOU-KALB AS WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AT KALB WHERE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS MAY DRIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AIRPORT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 020530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND INDEED SOME TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER/MID
50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM...AND
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
HUDSON/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE CT AND HOUSATONIC
RIVER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  PER PREVIOUS TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS TO BE SATISFIED WOULD BE AT KGFL-KPSF.  SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KPOU-KALB AS WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AT KALB WHERE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS MAY DRIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AIRPORT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 020530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND INDEED SOME TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER/MID
50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM...AND
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
HUDSON/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE CT AND HOUSATONIC
RIVER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  PER PREVIOUS TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS TO BE SATISFIED WOULD BE AT KGFL-KPSF.  SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KPOU-KALB AS WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AT KALB WHERE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS MAY DRIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AIRPORT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020523
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
123 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST NUMBERS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED
COVERAGE OF FOG JUST A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE VISBILITIES ALREADY REDUCED IN MANY SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN BR/FG ARE LIKELY
AT KMPV/KSLK/KMSS IN THE 06-14Z TIME FRAME WITH SOME MVFR BR
LIKELY AT KBTV/KPBG. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AFTER 14Z UNDER
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020523
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
123 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST NUMBERS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED
COVERAGE OF FOG JUST A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE VISBILITIES ALREADY REDUCED IN MANY SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN BR/FG ARE LIKELY
AT KMPV/KSLK/KMSS IN THE 06-14Z TIME FRAME WITH SOME MVFR BR
LIKELY AT KBTV/KPBG. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AFTER 14Z UNDER
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020523
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
123 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST NUMBERS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED
COVERAGE OF FOG JUST A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE VISBILITIES ALREADY REDUCED IN MANY SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN BR/FG ARE LIKELY
AT KMPV/KSLK/KMSS IN THE 06-14Z TIME FRAME WITH SOME MVFR BR
LIKELY AT KBTV/KPBG. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AFTER 14Z UNDER
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020523
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
123 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST NUMBERS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED
COVERAGE OF FOG JUST A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE VISBILITIES ALREADY REDUCED IN MANY SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN BR/FG ARE LIKELY
AT KMPV/KSLK/KMSS IN THE 06-14Z TIME FRAME WITH SOME MVFR BR
LIKELY AT KBTV/KPBG. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AFTER 14Z UNDER
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020502
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
102 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST NUMBERS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED
COVERAGE OF FOG JUST A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE VISBILITIES ALREADY REDUCED IN MANY SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR BR/FG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK IN THE
06-13Z TIME FRAME, OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...JMG/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020502
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
102 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST NUMBERS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED
COVERAGE OF FOG JUST A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE VISBILITIES ALREADY REDUCED IN MANY SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR BR/FG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK IN THE
06-13Z TIME FRAME, OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...JMG/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020502
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
102 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST NUMBERS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED
COVERAGE OF FOG JUST A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE VISBILITIES ALREADY REDUCED IN MANY SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR BR/FG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK IN THE
06-13Z TIME FRAME, OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...JMG/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020502
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
102 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST NUMBERS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED
COVERAGE OF FOG JUST A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE VISBILITIES ALREADY REDUCED IN MANY SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR BR/FG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK IN THE
06-13Z TIME FRAME, OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...JMG/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020502
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
102 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST NUMBERS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED
COVERAGE OF FOG JUST A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE VISBILITIES ALREADY REDUCED IN MANY SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR BR/FG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK IN THE
06-13Z TIME FRAME, OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...JMG/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KALY 020446
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND INDEED SOME TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER/MID
50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM...AND
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
HUDSON/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE CT AND HOUSATONIC
RIVER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM. IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-
13Z/WED. KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST. OUR
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS
TIME AT KPOU/KALB. THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG
THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 020446
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND INDEED SOME TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER/MID
50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM...AND
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
HUDSON/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE CT AND HOUSATONIC
RIVER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM. IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-
13Z/WED. KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST. OUR
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS
TIME AT KPOU/KALB. THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG
THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 020446
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND INDEED SOME TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER/MID
50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM...AND
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
HUDSON/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE CT AND HOUSATONIC
RIVER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM. IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-
13Z/WED. KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST. OUR
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS
TIME AT KPOU/KALB. THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG
THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 020446
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND INDEED SOME TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER/MID
50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM...AND
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
HUDSON/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE CT AND HOUSATONIC
RIVER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM. IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-
13Z/WED. KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST. OUR
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS
TIME AT KPOU/KALB. THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG
THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 020446
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND INDEED SOME TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER/MID
50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM...AND
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
HUDSON/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE CT AND HOUSATONIC
RIVER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM. IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-
13Z/WED. KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST. OUR
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS
TIME AT KPOU/KALB. THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG
THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020222
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1022 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1022 PM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED AS OF THE 10 PM
HOUR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 725 PM EDT TUESDAY...
QUIET AND PLEASANT NIGHT AGAIN IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING REMAINS ATOP THE NORTHEAST. AS WAS THE CASE LAST
NIGHT, A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN THE
LIGHT FLOW OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER OUR AREA AND WESTBOUND OUT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND IS PROVIDING ANOTHER SOMEWHAT HAZY SUNSET. I
DID OPT TO TWEAK LOW TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT IN THE NORMALLY
COOLER LOCALES IN CLOSER AGREEMENT TO CANADIAN BIAS-CORRECTED
DATA, BUT IN ESSENCE REALLY JUST COSMETIC CHANGES AS VALUES
GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 63 RANGE STILL EXPECTED AS PRIOR FORECAST
INDICATED. NIL POPS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR BR/FG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK IN THE
06-13Z TIME FRAME, OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...JMG/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020222
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1022 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1022 PM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED AS OF THE 10 PM
HOUR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 725 PM EDT TUESDAY...
QUIET AND PLEASANT NIGHT AGAIN IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING REMAINS ATOP THE NORTHEAST. AS WAS THE CASE LAST
NIGHT, A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN THE
LIGHT FLOW OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER OUR AREA AND WESTBOUND OUT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND IS PROVIDING ANOTHER SOMEWHAT HAZY SUNSET. I
DID OPT TO TWEAK LOW TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT IN THE NORMALLY
COOLER LOCALES IN CLOSER AGREEMENT TO CANADIAN BIAS-CORRECTED
DATA, BUT IN ESSENCE REALLY JUST COSMETIC CHANGES AS VALUES
GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 63 RANGE STILL EXPECTED AS PRIOR FORECAST
INDICATED. NIL POPS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR BR/FG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK IN THE
06-13Z TIME FRAME, OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...JMG/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 020201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECTING SIMILAR LOWS
TO THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID
60S. FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
DATA AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM. IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-
13Z/WED. KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST. OUR
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS
TIME AT KPOU/KALB. THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG
THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 020201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECTING SIMILAR LOWS
TO THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID
60S. FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
DATA AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM. IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-
13Z/WED. KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST. OUR
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS
TIME AT KPOU/KALB. THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG
THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KBTV 012325
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET AND PLEASANT NIGHT AGAIN IN
STORE FOR THE AREA AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST. AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT, A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT
REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN THE LIGHT FLOW OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER OUR
AREA AND WESTBOUND OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND IS PROVIDING
ANOTHER SOMEWHAT HAZY SUNSET. I DID OPT TO TWEAK LOW TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCALES IN CLOSER AGREEMENT TO
CANADIAN BIAS-CORRECTED DATA, BUT IN ESSENCE REALLY JUST COSMETIC
CHANGES AS VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 63 RANGE STILL EXPECTED
AS PRIOR FORECAST INDICATED. NIL POPS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR BR/FG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK IN THE
06-13Z TIME FRAME, OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...JMG/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 012325
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET AND PLEASANT NIGHT AGAIN IN
STORE FOR THE AREA AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST. AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT, A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT
REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN THE LIGHT FLOW OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER OUR
AREA AND WESTBOUND OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND IS PROVIDING
ANOTHER SOMEWHAT HAZY SUNSET. I DID OPT TO TWEAK LOW TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCALES IN CLOSER AGREEMENT TO
CANADIAN BIAS-CORRECTED DATA, BUT IN ESSENCE REALLY JUST COSMETIC
CHANGES AS VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 63 RANGE STILL EXPECTED
AS PRIOR FORECAST INDICATED. NIL POPS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR BR/FG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK IN THE
06-13Z TIME FRAME, OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...JMG/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 012325
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET AND PLEASANT NIGHT AGAIN IN
STORE FOR THE AREA AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST. AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT, A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT
REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN THE LIGHT FLOW OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER OUR
AREA AND WESTBOUND OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND IS PROVIDING
ANOTHER SOMEWHAT HAZY SUNSET. I DID OPT TO TWEAK LOW TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCALES IN CLOSER AGREEMENT TO
CANADIAN BIAS-CORRECTED DATA, BUT IN ESSENCE REALLY JUST COSMETIC
CHANGES AS VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 63 RANGE STILL EXPECTED
AS PRIOR FORECAST INDICATED. NIL POPS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR BR/FG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK IN THE
06-13Z TIME FRAME, OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...JMG/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 012325
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET AND PLEASANT NIGHT AGAIN IN
STORE FOR THE AREA AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST. AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT, A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT
REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN THE LIGHT FLOW OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER OUR
AREA AND WESTBOUND OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND IS PROVIDING
ANOTHER SOMEWHAT HAZY SUNSET. I DID OPT TO TWEAK LOW TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCALES IN CLOSER AGREEMENT TO
CANADIAN BIAS-CORRECTED DATA, BUT IN ESSENCE REALLY JUST COSMETIC
CHANGES AS VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 63 RANGE STILL EXPECTED
AS PRIOR FORECAST INDICATED. NIL POPS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR BR/FG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK IN THE
06-13Z TIME FRAME, OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...JMG/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KALY 012314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECTING
SIMILAR LOWS TO THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO MID 60S. FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT
BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM. IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-
13Z/WED. KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST. OUR
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS
TIME AT KPOU/KALB. THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG
THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 012046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT. THE CUMULUS CLOUD HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO DISSIPATE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL
CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG AND STRATUS
AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECTING SIMILAR LOWS TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
AT ALL THE TAF SITES WITH JUST A FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
3-4 KFT AGL RANGE.  THE CLOUDS TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
DISSIPATE WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING. IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-13Z/WED.
KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST.  OUR CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS TIME AT KPOU/KALB.
THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 6 KTS OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON.  THEY WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 012046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT. THE CUMULUS CLOUD HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO DISSIPATE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL
CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG AND STRATUS
AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECTING SIMILAR LOWS TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM.

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
AT ALL THE TAF SITES WITH JUST A FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
3-4 KFT AGL RANGE.  THE CLOUDS TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
DISSIPATE WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING. IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-13Z/WED.
KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST.  OUR CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS TIME AT KPOU/KALB.
THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 6 KTS OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON.  THEY WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011932
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SFC AND
ALOFT. LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS LIMITED TO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID-UPR 60S. ELSEWHERE...COMBINATION OF LOWER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS (UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S) AND SUBSIDENCE
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE AREAWIDE
TONIGHT. WILL AGAIN SEE SOME NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT
AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS WELL. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE 58-64F IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE MID 50S ACROSS
FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACK REGION. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING WITH WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ALONG WITH
STABLE PBL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT KSLK/KMPV TONIGHT
AFTER 07Z. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL LIFT BY ABOUT 12-14Z AND LIGHT
WINDS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE
SOME FG/BR AT MSS BUT HAVE LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME...NOT SURE IT
WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011932
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SFC AND
ALOFT. LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS LIMITED TO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID-UPR 60S. ELSEWHERE...COMBINATION OF LOWER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS (UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S) AND SUBSIDENCE
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE AREAWIDE
TONIGHT. WILL AGAIN SEE SOME NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT
AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS WELL. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE 58-64F IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE MID 50S ACROSS
FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACK REGION. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING WITH WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ALONG WITH
STABLE PBL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT KSLK/KMPV TONIGHT
AFTER 07Z. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL LIFT BY ABOUT 12-14Z AND LIGHT
WINDS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE
SOME FG/BR AT MSS BUT HAVE LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME...NOT SURE IT
WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011932
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SFC AND
ALOFT. LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS LIMITED TO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID-UPR 60S. ELSEWHERE...COMBINATION OF LOWER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS (UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S) AND SUBSIDENCE
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE AREAWIDE
TONIGHT. WILL AGAIN SEE SOME NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT
AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS WELL. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE 58-64F IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE MID 50S ACROSS
FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACK REGION. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING WITH WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ALONG WITH
STABLE PBL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT KSLK/KMPV TONIGHT
AFTER 07Z. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL LIFT BY ABOUT 12-14Z AND LIGHT
WINDS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE
SOME FG/BR AT MSS BUT HAVE LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME...NOT SURE IT
WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011932
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SFC AND
ALOFT. LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS LIMITED TO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID-UPR 60S. ELSEWHERE...COMBINATION OF LOWER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS (UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S) AND SUBSIDENCE
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE AREAWIDE
TONIGHT. WILL AGAIN SEE SOME NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT
AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS WELL. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE 58-64F IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE MID 50S ACROSS
FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACK REGION. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING WITH WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ALONG WITH
STABLE PBL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT KSLK/KMPV TONIGHT
AFTER 07Z. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL LIFT BY ABOUT 12-14Z AND LIGHT
WINDS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE
SOME FG/BR AT MSS BUT HAVE LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME...NOT SURE IT
WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011932
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SFC AND
ALOFT. LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS LIMITED TO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID-UPR 60S. ELSEWHERE...COMBINATION OF LOWER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS (UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S) AND SUBSIDENCE
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE AREAWIDE
TONIGHT. WILL AGAIN SEE SOME NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT
AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS WELL. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE 58-64F IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE MID 50S ACROSS
FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACK REGION. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING WITH WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ALONG WITH
STABLE PBL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT KSLK/KMPV TONIGHT
AFTER 07Z. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL LIFT BY ABOUT 12-14Z AND LIGHT
WINDS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE
SOME FG/BR AT MSS BUT HAVE LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME...NOT SURE IT
WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011932
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SFC AND
ALOFT. LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS LIMITED TO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID-UPR 60S. ELSEWHERE...COMBINATION OF LOWER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS (UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S) AND SUBSIDENCE
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE AREAWIDE
TONIGHT. WILL AGAIN SEE SOME NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT
AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS WELL. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE 58-64F IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE MID 50S ACROSS
FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACK REGION. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING WITH WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ALONG WITH
STABLE PBL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT KSLK/KMPV TONIGHT
AFTER 07Z. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL LIFT BY ABOUT 12-14Z AND LIGHT
WINDS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE
SOME FG/BR AT MSS BUT HAVE LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME...NOT SURE IT
WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011932
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SFC AND
ALOFT. LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS LIMITED TO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID-UPR 60S. ELSEWHERE...COMBINATION OF LOWER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS (UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S) AND SUBSIDENCE
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE AREAWIDE
TONIGHT. WILL AGAIN SEE SOME NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT
AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS WELL. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE 58-64F IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE MID 50S ACROSS
FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACK REGION. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING WITH WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ALONG WITH
STABLE PBL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT KSLK/KMPV TONIGHT
AFTER 07Z. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL LIFT BY ABOUT 12-14Z AND LIGHT
WINDS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE
SOME FG/BR AT MSS BUT HAVE LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME...NOT SURE IT
WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011932
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SFC AND
ALOFT. LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS LIMITED TO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID-UPR 60S. ELSEWHERE...COMBINATION OF LOWER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS (UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S) AND SUBSIDENCE
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE AREAWIDE
TONIGHT. WILL AGAIN SEE SOME NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT
AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS WELL. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE 58-64F IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE MID 50S ACROSS
FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACK REGION. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING WITH WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ALONG WITH
STABLE PBL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT KSLK/KMPV TONIGHT
AFTER 07Z. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL LIFT BY ABOUT 12-14Z AND LIGHT
WINDS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE
SOME FG/BR AT MSS BUT HAVE LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME...NOT SURE IT
WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT TUESDAY...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS RESULTING
IN A VERY PLEASANT SEPTEMBER 1ST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
82-86F IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. POPS NIL AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE
CRESTS OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE
TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES
OF AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACH OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS
COOL A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT KSLK/KMPV TONIGHT
AFTER 07Z. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL LIFT BY ABOUT 12-14Z AND LIGHT
WINDS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE
SOME FG/BR AT MSS BUT HAVE LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME...NOT SURE IT
WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT TUESDAY...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS RESULTING
IN A VERY PLEASANT SEPTEMBER 1ST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
82-86F IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. POPS NIL AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE
CRESTS OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE
TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES
OF AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACH OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS
COOL A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT KSLK/KMPV TONIGHT
AFTER 07Z. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL LIFT BY ABOUT 12-14Z AND LIGHT
WINDS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE
SOME FG/BR AT MSS BUT HAVE LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME...NOT SURE IT
WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 011728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN
FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT. THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY CONITNUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND BREAK UP WHICH HAS
BEEN SLOW DUE TO A DECENT INVERSION FROM 850-775 HPA SEEN ON THE
12Z/ALY SOUNDING. OTHERWISE CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF SEPTEMBER.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND U70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
AT ALL THE TAF SITES WITH JUST A FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
3-4 KFT AGL RANGE.  THE CLOUDS TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
DISSIPATE WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING. IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-13Z/WED.
KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST.  OUR CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS TIME AT KPOU/KALB.
THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 6 KTS OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON.  THEY WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN
FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT. THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY CONITNUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND BREAK UP WHICH HAS
BEEN SLOW DUE TO A DECENT INVERSION FROM 850-775 HPA SEEN ON THE
12Z/ALY SOUNDING. OTHERWISE CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF SEPTEMBER.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND U70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
AT ALL THE TAF SITES WITH JUST A FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
3-4 KFT AGL RANGE.  THE CLOUDS TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
DISSIPATE WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING. IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-13Z/WED.
KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST.  OUR CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS TIME AT KPOU/KALB.
THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 6 KTS OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON.  THEY WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN
FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT. THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY CONITNUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND BREAK UP WHICH HAS
BEEN SLOW DUE TO A DECENT INVERSION FROM 850-775 HPA SEEN ON THE
12Z/ALY SOUNDING. OTHERWISE CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF SEPTEMBER.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND U70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
AT ALL THE TAF SITES WITH JUST A FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
3-4 KFT AGL RANGE.  THE CLOUDS TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
DISSIPATE WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING. IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-13Z/WED.
KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST.  OUR CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS TIME AT KPOU/KALB.
THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 6 KTS OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON.  THEY WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011726
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT TUESDAY...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS RESULTING
IN A VERY PLEASANT SEPTEMBER 1ST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 82-86F
IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. POPS NIL AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE CRESTS OVER
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DISSIPATING VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z, AND AGAIN AT KSLK/KMPV
TONIGHT AFTER 07Z. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF WE`LL JUST SEE A FEW
CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011726
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT TUESDAY...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS RESULTING
IN A VERY PLEASANT SEPTEMBER 1ST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 82-86F
IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. POPS NIL AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE CRESTS OVER
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DISSIPATING VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z, AND AGAIN AT KSLK/KMPV
TONIGHT AFTER 07Z. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF WE`LL JUST SEE A FEW
CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011726
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT TUESDAY...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS RESULTING
IN A VERY PLEASANT SEPTEMBER 1ST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 82-86F
IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. POPS NIL AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE CRESTS OVER
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DISSIPATING VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z, AND AGAIN AT KSLK/KMPV
TONIGHT AFTER 07Z. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF WE`LL JUST SEE A FEW
CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011726
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT TUESDAY...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS RESULTING
IN A VERY PLEASANT SEPTEMBER 1ST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 82-86F
IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. POPS NIL AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE CRESTS OVER
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DISSIPATING VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z, AND AGAIN AT KSLK/KMPV
TONIGHT AFTER 07Z. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF WE`LL JUST SEE A FEW
CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011726
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT TUESDAY...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS RESULTING
IN A VERY PLEASANT SEPTEMBER 1ST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 82-86F
IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. POPS NIL AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE CRESTS OVER
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DISSIPATING VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z, AND AGAIN AT KSLK/KMPV
TONIGHT AFTER 07Z. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF WE`LL JUST SEE A FEW
CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011726
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT TUESDAY...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS RESULTING
IN A VERY PLEASANT SEPTEMBER 1ST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 82-86F
IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. POPS NIL AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE CRESTS OVER
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DISSIPATING VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z, AND AGAIN AT KSLK/KMPV
TONIGHT AFTER 07Z. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF WE`LL JUST SEE A FEW
CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 011416
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1016 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. IT LOOKS TO BE
RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED
THROUGH YESTERDAY LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER THIS MORNING...AS THE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE. THE 12Z KALB SOUNDING HAS A DECENT
INVERSION FROM 850-775 HPA. THE SUNSHINE...AND SOME MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO...THE PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FOG WERE REMOVED FROM THE GRIDS TOO. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR WITH TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF SEPTEMBER.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND U70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
GIVING WAY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. KALB AND KPOU ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DURING TODAY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A
LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011416
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1016 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. IT LOOKS TO BE
RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED
THROUGH YESTERDAY LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER THIS MORNING...AS THE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE. THE 12Z KALB SOUNDING HAS A DECENT
INVERSION FROM 850-775 HPA. THE SUNSHINE...AND SOME MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO...THE PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FOG WERE REMOVED FROM THE GRIDS TOO. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR WITH TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF SEPTEMBER.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND U70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
GIVING WAY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. KALB AND KPOU ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DURING TODAY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A
LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011416
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1016 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. IT LOOKS TO BE
RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED
THROUGH YESTERDAY LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER THIS MORNING...AS THE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE. THE 12Z KALB SOUNDING HAS A DECENT
INVERSION FROM 850-775 HPA. THE SUNSHINE...AND SOME MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO...THE PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FOG WERE REMOVED FROM THE GRIDS TOO. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR WITH TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF SEPTEMBER.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND U70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
GIVING WAY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. KALB AND KPOU ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DURING TODAY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A
LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011416
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1016 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. IT LOOKS TO BE
RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED
THROUGH YESTERDAY LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER THIS MORNING...AS THE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE. THE 12Z KALB SOUNDING HAS A DECENT
INVERSION FROM 850-775 HPA. THE SUNSHINE...AND SOME MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO...THE PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FOG WERE REMOVED FROM THE GRIDS TOO. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR WITH TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF SEPTEMBER.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND U70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
GIVING WAY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. KALB AND KPOU ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DURING TODAY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A
LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011258
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
858 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 854 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR SOMEWHAT SLOWER DISSIPATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. INCREASED HEATING/PBL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES
TO BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS. STILL
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES 83-86F IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF FOG ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
TODAY. FOG WILL BE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL BRING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM WITH 850MB
TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 18C THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...OR ABOUT 10-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR 1ST OF SEPTEMBER. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV
TODAY IS 76.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DISSIPATING VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z, AND AGAIN AT KSLK/KMPV
TONIGHT AFTER 07Z. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF WE`LL JUST SEE A FEW
CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011258
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
858 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 854 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR SOMEWHAT SLOWER DISSIPATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. INCREASED HEATING/PBL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES
TO BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS. STILL
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES 83-86F IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF FOG ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
TODAY. FOG WILL BE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL BRING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM WITH 850MB
TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 18C THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...OR ABOUT 10-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR 1ST OF SEPTEMBER. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV
TODAY IS 76.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DISSIPATING VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z, AND AGAIN AT KSLK/KMPV
TONIGHT AFTER 07Z. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF WE`LL JUST SEE A FEW
CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011258
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
858 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 854 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR SOMEWHAT SLOWER DISSIPATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. INCREASED HEATING/PBL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES
TO BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS. STILL
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES 83-86F IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF FOG ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
TODAY. FOG WILL BE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL BRING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM WITH 850MB
TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 18C THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...OR ABOUT 10-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR 1ST OF SEPTEMBER. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV
TODAY IS 76.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DISSIPATING VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z, AND AGAIN AT KSLK/KMPV
TONIGHT AFTER 07Z. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF WE`LL JUST SEE A FEW
CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011258
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
858 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 854 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR SOMEWHAT SLOWER DISSIPATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. INCREASED HEATING/PBL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES
TO BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS. STILL
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES 83-86F IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF FOG ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
TODAY. FOG WILL BE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL BRING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM WITH 850MB
TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 18C THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...OR ABOUT 10-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR 1ST OF SEPTEMBER. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV
TODAY IS 76.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DISSIPATING VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z, AND AGAIN AT KSLK/KMPV
TONIGHT AFTER 07Z. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF WE`LL JUST SEE A FEW
CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011258
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
858 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 854 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR SOMEWHAT SLOWER DISSIPATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. INCREASED HEATING/PBL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES
TO BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS. STILL
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES 83-86F IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF FOG ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
TODAY. FOG WILL BE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL BRING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM WITH 850MB
TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 18C THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...OR ABOUT 10-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR 1ST OF SEPTEMBER. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV
TODAY IS 76.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DISSIPATING VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z, AND AGAIN AT KSLK/KMPV
TONIGHT AFTER 07Z. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF WE`LL JUST SEE A FEW
CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011258
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
858 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 854 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR SOMEWHAT SLOWER DISSIPATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. INCREASED HEATING/PBL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES
TO BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS. STILL
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES 83-86F IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF FOG ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
TODAY. FOG WILL BE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL BRING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM WITH 850MB
TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 18C THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...OR ABOUT 10-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR 1ST OF SEPTEMBER. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV
TODAY IS 76.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DISSIPATING VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z, AND AGAIN AT KSLK/KMPV
TONIGHT AFTER 07Z. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF WE`LL JUST SEE A FEW
CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011124
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
724 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 716 AM EDT TUESDAY...AREAS OF FOG ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
TODAY. FOG WILL BE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL BRING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM WITH 850MB
TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 18C THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...OR ABOUT 10-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR 1ST OF SEPTEMBER. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV
TODAY IS 76.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DISSIPATING VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z, AND AGAIN AT KSLK/KMPV
TONIGHT AFTER 07Z. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF WE`LL JUST SEE A FEW
CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011124
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
724 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 716 AM EDT TUESDAY...AREAS OF FOG ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
TODAY. FOG WILL BE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL BRING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM WITH 850MB
TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 18C THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...OR ABOUT 10-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR 1ST OF SEPTEMBER. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV
TODAY IS 76.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DISSIPATING VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z, AND AGAIN AT KSLK/KMPV
TONIGHT AFTER 07Z. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF WE`LL JUST SEE A FEW
CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011121
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 716 AM EDT TUESDAY...AREAS OF FOG ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
TODAY. FOG WILL BE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL BRING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM WITH 850MB
TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 18C THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...OR ABOUT 10-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR 1ST OF SEPTEMBER. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV
TODAY IS 76.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011121
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 716 AM EDT TUESDAY...AREAS OF FOG ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
TODAY. FOG WILL BE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL BRING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM WITH 850MB
TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 18C THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...OR ABOUT 10-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR 1ST OF SEPTEMBER. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV
TODAY IS 76.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011121
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 716 AM EDT TUESDAY...AREAS OF FOG ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
TODAY. FOG WILL BE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL BRING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM WITH 850MB
TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 18C THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...OR ABOUT 10-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR 1ST OF SEPTEMBER. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV
TODAY IS 76.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 011016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE MOST
OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SW VT AND
WESTERN MA. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED IN AREAS WHERE
SKIES REMAINED CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

WE EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO BURN OFF/DISSIPATE BETWEEN 8 AND
10 AM...LAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
THEN...EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS
THAN MONDAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S FOR
MOST HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
GIVING WAY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. KALB AND KPOU ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DURING TODAY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A
LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 011016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE MOST
OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SW VT AND
WESTERN MA. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED IN AREAS WHERE
SKIES REMAINED CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

WE EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO BURN OFF/DISSIPATE BETWEEN 8 AND
10 AM...LAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
THEN...EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS
THAN MONDAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S FOR
MOST HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
GIVING WAY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. KALB AND KPOU ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DURING TODAY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A
LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 011016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE MOST
OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SW VT AND
WESTERN MA. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED IN AREAS WHERE
SKIES REMAINED CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

WE EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO BURN OFF/DISSIPATE BETWEEN 8 AND
10 AM...LAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
THEN...EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS
THAN MONDAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S FOR
MOST HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
GIVING WAY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. KALB AND KPOU ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DURING TODAY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A
LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 011016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE MOST
OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SW VT AND
WESTERN MA. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED IN AREAS WHERE
SKIES REMAINED CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

WE EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO BURN OFF/DISSIPATE BETWEEN 8 AND
10 AM...LAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
THEN...EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS
THAN MONDAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S FOR
MOST HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
GIVING WAY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. KALB AND KPOU ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DURING TODAY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A
LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 011002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
602 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE MOST
OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THESE CLOUDS MAY EXPAND A
BIT THROUGH SUNRISE...AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG IS FORMING WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED
CLEAR...AND SOME COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BY SUNRISE.

AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN MONDAY. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.
IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
GIVING WAY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. KALB AND KPOU ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DURING TODAY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A
LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 011002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
602 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE MOST
OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THESE CLOUDS MAY EXPAND A
BIT THROUGH SUNRISE...AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG IS FORMING WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED
CLEAR...AND SOME COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BY SUNRISE.

AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN MONDAY. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.
IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
GIVING WAY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. KALB AND KPOU ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DURING TODAY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A
LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE MOST
OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THESE CLOUDS MAY EXPAND A
BIT THROUGH SUNRISE...AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG IS FORMING WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED
CLEAR...AND SOME COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BY SUNRISE.

AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN MONDAY. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.
IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS PSBL WITH LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND
KPSF. KALB AND KPOU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ANY FOG SHOULD
LIFT RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY SOME MVFR FOG
AGAIN AT KGFL AND KPSF TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE MOST
OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THESE CLOUDS MAY EXPAND A
BIT THROUGH SUNRISE...AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG IS FORMING WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED
CLEAR...AND SOME COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BY SUNRISE.

AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN MONDAY. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.
IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS PSBL WITH LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND
KPSF. KALB AND KPOU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ANY FOG SHOULD
LIFT RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY SOME MVFR FOG
AGAIN AT KGFL AND KPSF TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE MOST
OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THESE CLOUDS MAY EXPAND A
BIT THROUGH SUNRISE...AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG IS FORMING WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED
CLEAR...AND SOME COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BY SUNRISE.

AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN MONDAY. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.
IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS PSBL WITH LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND
KPSF. KALB AND KPOU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ANY FOG SHOULD
LIFT RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY SOME MVFR FOG
AGAIN AT KGFL AND KPSF TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010800
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TODAY
AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.
DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 18C THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...OR ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
1ST OF SEPTEMBER. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV TODAY IS 76.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010800
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TODAY
AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.
DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 18C THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...OR ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
1ST OF SEPTEMBER. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV TODAY IS 76.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010800
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TODAY
AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.
DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 18C THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...OR ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
1ST OF SEPTEMBER. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV TODAY IS 76.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010800
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TODAY
AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.
DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 18C THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...OR ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
1ST OF SEPTEMBER. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV TODAY IS 76.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010652
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010652
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010652
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010652
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010652
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010652
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010457
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1257 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010457
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1257 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010457
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1257 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010457
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1257 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010457
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1257 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 010449
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1249 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS PSBL WITH LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND
KPSF. KALB AND KPOU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ANY FOG SHOULD
LIFT RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY SOME MVFR FOG
AGAIN AT KGFL AND KPSF TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010449
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1249 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS PSBL WITH LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND
KPSF. KALB AND KPOU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ANY FOG SHOULD
LIFT RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY SOME MVFR FOG
AGAIN AT KGFL AND KPSF TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010449
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1249 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS PSBL WITH LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND
KPSF. KALB AND KPOU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ANY FOG SHOULD
LIFT RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY SOME MVFR FOG
AGAIN AT KGFL AND KPSF TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 010449
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1249 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS PSBL WITH LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND
KPSF. KALB AND KPOU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ANY FOG SHOULD
LIFT RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY SOME MVFR FOG
AGAIN AT KGFL AND KPSF TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 010444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 010444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION.
A LINGERING PATCH OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TOWARDS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

OTHERWISE...BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESP
AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF
SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION.
A LINGERING PATCH OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TOWARDS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

OTHERWISE...BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESP
AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF
SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION.
A LINGERING PATCH OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TOWARDS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

OTHERWISE...BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESP
AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF
SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION.
A LINGERING PATCH OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TOWARDS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

OTHERWISE...BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESP
AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF
SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION.
A LINGERING PATCH OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TOWARDS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

OTHERWISE...BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESP
AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF
SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION.
A LINGERING PATCH OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TOWARDS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

OTHERWISE...BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESP
AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF
SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT MONDAY...QUIET EVENING ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION WEATHERWISE AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A
FEW PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH PATCHY FOG IN
FAVORED LOCALES. SOME VIEWERS HAVE REPORTED A RATHER HAZY SUNSET
THIS EVENING, AND THIS IS DUE TO A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES STATES WITH ORIGINS FROM
THE NUMEROUS WESTERN U.S. FIRES. NOAA-MODELLED VERTICALLY
INTEGRATED SMOKE PRODUCT SHOWS THIS LAYER TO GRADUALLY MIX
OUT/DISSIPATE OVER AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN CREATING A
SLIGHT MILKY/HAZY APPEARANCE TO THE SKY AT TIMES. HAVE A GREAT
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT MONDAY...QUIET EVENING ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION WEATHERWISE AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A
FEW PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH PATCHY FOG IN
FAVORED LOCALES. SOME VIEWERS HAVE REPORTED A RATHER HAZY SUNSET
THIS EVENING, AND THIS IS DUE TO A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES STATES WITH ORIGINS FROM
THE NUMEROUS WESTERN U.S. FIRES. NOAA-MODELLED VERTICALLY
INTEGRATED SMOKE PRODUCT SHOWS THIS LAYER TO GRADUALLY MIX
OUT/DISSIPATE OVER AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN CREATING A
SLIGHT MILKY/HAZY APPEARANCE TO THE SKY AT TIMES. HAVE A GREAT
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT MONDAY...QUIET EVENING ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION WEATHERWISE AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A
FEW PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH PATCHY FOG IN
FAVORED LOCALES. SOME VIEWERS HAVE REPORTED A RATHER HAZY SUNSET
THIS EVENING, AND THIS IS DUE TO A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES STATES WITH ORIGINS FROM
THE NUMEROUS WESTERN U.S. FIRES. NOAA-MODELLED VERTICALLY
INTEGRATED SMOKE PRODUCT SHOWS THIS LAYER TO GRADUALLY MIX
OUT/DISSIPATE OVER AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN CREATING A
SLIGHT MILKY/HAZY APPEARANCE TO THE SKY AT TIMES. HAVE A GREAT
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT MONDAY...QUIET EVENING ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION WEATHERWISE AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A
FEW PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH PATCHY FOG IN
FAVORED LOCALES. SOME VIEWERS HAVE REPORTED A RATHER HAZY SUNSET
THIS EVENING, AND THIS IS DUE TO A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES STATES WITH ORIGINS FROM
THE NUMEROUS WESTERN U.S. FIRES. NOAA-MODELLED VERTICALLY
INTEGRATED SMOKE PRODUCT SHOWS THIS LAYER TO GRADUALLY MIX
OUT/DISSIPATE OVER AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN CREATING A
SLIGHT MILKY/HAZY APPEARANCE TO THE SKY AT TIMES. HAVE A GREAT
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 312340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY NOISE-LEVEL TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS AND FOG COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WERE MADE.
OTHERWISE STILL LOOKING AT SKIES TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR AS LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 307 PM EDT MONDAY...
AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...THE PREVAILING NW FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL PUSH A
WEAK FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. PER RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...FRONT WILL GENERALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY...WITH JUST A BAND OF CLOUDS THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD WILL BE STEADILY RISING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...AND
ANY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS QUITE SHALLOW.
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO LIMITED BY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AROUND
NOON TODAY...WHICH LEAD TO VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE
WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW
EARLY GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH PBL
STABILIZATION. IT APPEARS DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUFFICIENT
CLEARING TOWARD MIDNIGHT WILL STILL PERMIT PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE FAVORED VALLEYS
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT LOCALLY IN THE MID 50S
ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 312340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY NOISE-LEVEL TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS AND FOG COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WERE MADE.
OTHERWISE STILL LOOKING AT SKIES TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR AS LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 307 PM EDT MONDAY...
AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...THE PREVAILING NW FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL PUSH A
WEAK FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. PER RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...FRONT WILL GENERALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY...WITH JUST A BAND OF CLOUDS THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD WILL BE STEADILY RISING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...AND
ANY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS QUITE SHALLOW.
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO LIMITED BY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AROUND
NOON TODAY...WHICH LEAD TO VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE
WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW
EARLY GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH PBL
STABILIZATION. IT APPEARS DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUFFICIENT
CLEARING TOWARD MIDNIGHT WILL STILL PERMIT PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE FAVORED VALLEYS
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT LOCALLY IN THE MID 50S
ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KALY 312338
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 738 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOST CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED OUT OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME PATCHES OF
STRATOCU OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. AS A
RESULT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND
OTHER PRONE LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...ESP AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT
RIVER VALLEY OF SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 312338
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 738 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOST CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED OUT OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME PATCHES OF
STRATOCU OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. AS A
RESULT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND
OTHER PRONE LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...ESP AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT
RIVER VALLEY OF SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 312330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY NOISE-LEVEL TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS AND FOG COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WERE MADE.
OTHERWISE STILL LOOKING AT SKIES TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR AS LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 307 PM EDT MONDAY...
AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...THE PREVAILING NW FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL PUSH A
WEAK FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. PER RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...FRONT WILL GENERALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY...WITH JUST A BAND OF CLOUDS THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD WILL BE STEADILY RISING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...AND
ANY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS QUITE SHALLOW.
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO LIMITED BY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AROUND
NOON TODAY...WHICH LEAD TO VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE
WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW
EARLY GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH PBL
STABILIZATION. IT APPEARS DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUFFICIENT
CLEARING TOWARD MIDNIGHT WILL STILL PERMIT PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE FAVORED VALLEYS
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT LOCALLY IN THE MID 50S
ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 312330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY NOISE-LEVEL TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS AND FOG COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WERE MADE.
OTHERWISE STILL LOOKING AT SKIES TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR AS LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 307 PM EDT MONDAY...
AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...THE PREVAILING NW FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL PUSH A
WEAK FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. PER RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...FRONT WILL GENERALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY...WITH JUST A BAND OF CLOUDS THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD WILL BE STEADILY RISING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...AND
ANY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS QUITE SHALLOW.
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO LIMITED BY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AROUND
NOON TODAY...WHICH LEAD TO VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE
WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW
EARLY GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH PBL
STABILIZATION. IT APPEARS DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUFFICIENT
CLEARING TOWARD MIDNIGHT WILL STILL PERMIT PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE FAVORED VALLEYS
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT LOCALLY IN THE MID 50S
ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 312035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TONIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF RADIATIONAL  FOG ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MAINLY PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH MVFR CUMULUS /AROUND 3 KFT AGL/ NEAR KPSF.  SOME SCT
CUMULUS CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.  ALSO...SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES NEAR KPOU. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED UNTIL 20Z.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT BY SUNSET...THEN CALM AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST FORMING. THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN
06Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAS NOT CONFIDENT FOR LONG DURATION IFR VSBYS/CIGS...SO WENT WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT 3SM FOR NOW BTWN 08-12Z AT THOSE TWO SITES.  THE
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD DISSIPATE AT 12-
14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS...HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 312035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TONIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF RADIATIONAL  FOG ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MAINLY PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH MVFR CUMULUS /AROUND 3 KFT AGL/ NEAR KPSF.  SOME SCT
CUMULUS CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.  ALSO...SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES NEAR KPOU. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED UNTIL 20Z.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT BY SUNSET...THEN CALM AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST FORMING. THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN
06Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAS NOT CONFIDENT FOR LONG DURATION IFR VSBYS/CIGS...SO WENT WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT 3SM FOR NOW BTWN 08-12Z AT THOSE TWO SITES.  THE
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD DISSIPATE AT 12-
14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS...HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311940
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE PREVAILING NW FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEWD ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. PER RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...FRONT WILL
GENERALLY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY...WITH JUST A BAND OF
CLOUDS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE STEADILY RISING ACROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND ANY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
QUITE SHALLOW. CONVERGENCE IS ALSO LIMITED BY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
PASSAGE AROUND NOON TODAY...WHICH LEAD TO VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW EARLY GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
WITH PBL STABILIZATION. IT APPEARS DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SUFFICIENT CLEARING TOWARD MIDNIGHT WILL STILL PERMIT PATCHY FOG
FORMATION IN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE
FAVORED VALLEYS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT LOCALLY
IN THE MID 50S ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311940
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE PREVAILING NW FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEWD ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. PER RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...FRONT WILL
GENERALLY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY...WITH JUST A BAND OF
CLOUDS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE STEADILY RISING ACROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND ANY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
QUITE SHALLOW. CONVERGENCE IS ALSO LIMITED BY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
PASSAGE AROUND NOON TODAY...WHICH LEAD TO VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW EARLY GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
WITH PBL STABILIZATION. IT APPEARS DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SUFFICIENT CLEARING TOWARD MIDNIGHT WILL STILL PERMIT PATCHY FOG
FORMATION IN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE
FAVORED VALLEYS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT LOCALLY
IN THE MID 50S ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KALY 311753
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR AREA TO YESTERDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR-3KM IS OVERDONE
WITH ACTIVITY SO FAR BUT DOES SHOW IT DIMINISHED BY 22Z.

A WARM/HOT DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S MAKING FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME AREAS...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH AND A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MAINLY PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH MVFR CUMULUS /AROUND 3 KFT AGL/ NEAR KPSF.  SOME SCT
CUMULUS CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.  ALSO...SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES NEAR KPOU. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED UNTIL 20Z.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT BY SUNSET...THEN CALM AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST FORMING. THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN
06Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAS NOT CONFIDENT FOR LONG DURATION IFR VSBYS/CIGS...SO WENT WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT 3SM FOR NOW BTWN 08-12Z AT THOSE TWO SITES.  THE
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD DISSIPATE AT 12-
14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS...HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT MONDAY...SFC WINDS ARE SHIFTING INTO THE WNW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MID-AFTN. A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BNDRY FURTHER
NORTH...ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUD COVER...BUT
OTHERWISE THE FROPA SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND POPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 311753
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR AREA TO YESTERDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR-3KM IS OVERDONE
WITH ACTIVITY SO FAR BUT DOES SHOW IT DIMINISHED BY 22Z.

A WARM/HOT DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S MAKING FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME AREAS...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH AND A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MAINLY PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH MVFR CUMULUS /AROUND 3 KFT AGL/ NEAR KPSF.  SOME SCT
CUMULUS CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.  ALSO...SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES NEAR KPOU. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED UNTIL 20Z.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT BY SUNSET...THEN CALM AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST FORMING. THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN
06Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAS NOT CONFIDENT FOR LONG DURATION IFR VSBYS/CIGS...SO WENT WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT 3SM FOR NOW BTWN 08-12Z AT THOSE TWO SITES.  THE
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD DISSIPATE AT 12-
14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS...HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 311753
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR AREA TO YESTERDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR-3KM IS OVERDONE
WITH ACTIVITY SO FAR BUT DOES SHOW IT DIMINISHED BY 22Z.

A WARM/HOT DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S MAKING FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME AREAS...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH AND A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MAINLY PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH MVFR CUMULUS /AROUND 3 KFT AGL/ NEAR KPSF.  SOME SCT
CUMULUS CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.  ALSO...SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES NEAR KPOU. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED UNTIL 20Z.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT BY SUNSET...THEN CALM AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST FORMING. THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN
06Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAS NOT CONFIDENT FOR LONG DURATION IFR VSBYS/CIGS...SO WENT WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT 3SM FOR NOW BTWN 08-12Z AT THOSE TWO SITES.  THE
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD DISSIPATE AT 12-
14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS...HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT MONDAY...SFC WINDS ARE SHIFTING INTO THE WNW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MID-AFTN. A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BNDRY FURTHER
NORTH...ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUD COVER...BUT
OTHERWISE THE FROPA SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND POPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT MONDAY...SFC WINDS ARE SHIFTING INTO THE WNW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MID-AFTN. A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BNDRY FURTHER
NORTH...ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUD COVER...BUT
OTHERWISE THE FROPA SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND POPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT MONDAY...SFC WINDS ARE SHIFTING INTO THE WNW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MID-AFTN. A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BNDRY FURTHER
NORTH...ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUD COVER...BUT
OTHERWISE THE FROPA SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND POPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT MONDAY...SFC WINDS ARE SHIFTING INTO THE WNW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MID-AFTN. A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BNDRY FURTHER
NORTH...ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUD COVER...BUT
OTHERWISE THE FROPA SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND POPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311716
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
116 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT MONDAY...SFC WINDS ARE SHIFTING INTO THE WNW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MID-AFTN. A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BNDRY FURTHER
NORTH...ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUD COVER...BUT
OTHERWISE THE FROPA SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND POPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AT KSLK/KMPV THROUGH 13Z TODAY WITH
MVFR/IFR IN FOG. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AT
KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 4000 FEET. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND WEST 10-20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311716
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
116 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT MONDAY...SFC WINDS ARE SHIFTING INTO THE WNW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MID-AFTN. A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BNDRY FURTHER
NORTH...ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUD COVER...BUT
OTHERWISE THE FROPA SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND POPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AT KSLK/KMPV THROUGH 13Z TODAY WITH
MVFR/IFR IN FOG. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AT
KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 4000 FEET. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND WEST 10-20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




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