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000
FXUS61 KALY 011147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
747 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ONE MORE UPDATE AS RADAR NOW INDICATED SOME WEAK
RETURNS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF ALBANY.
SUSPECT THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF DRIZZLE OVER THE HILLTOWNS AND
EVEN A LITTLE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE VALLEYS. WE INCLUDED DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH THE FOG (MORE EXTENSIVE HIGHER TERRAIN) UNTIL 900 AM EDT.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY
AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST AT
THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES TO 12Z-14Z THIS MORNING...WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR VSBYS AT KPOU THROUGH 14Z. AFTER AROUND
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG
FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE FORECAST CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 011147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
747 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ONE MORE UPDATE AS RADAR NOW INDICATED SOME WEAK
RETURNS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF ALBANY.
SUSPECT THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF DRIZZLE OVER THE HILLTOWNS AND
EVEN A LITTLE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE VALLEYS. WE INCLUDED DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH THE FOG (MORE EXTENSIVE HIGHER TERRAIN) UNTIL 900 AM EDT.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY
AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST AT
THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES TO 12Z-14Z THIS MORNING...WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR VSBYS AT KPOU THROUGH 14Z. AFTER AROUND
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG
FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE FORECAST CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 011145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
745 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...LABOR DAY...BRINGING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A MODERATELY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 639 AM EDT MONDAY...COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NEAR SHERBROOKE QUEBEC AT 1040Z WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EWD ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED FORCING HAS
GENERALLY SHIFTED EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE AT THIS POINT...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TODAY. SOME BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING
IN THE OVERCAST...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE LEADING TO PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. VERY HUMID AIR MASS
DID LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND THAT
FOG WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY 12-1230Z.

THE UPPER LOW ISN/T ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE.
THUS...THE RELATIVELY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID-UPR 60S AREA WIDE WILL REMAIN. 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS IN TODAY FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED AND
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +15C TO
+16C...WILL FEEL LIKE MID-SUMMER CONDITIONS FOR THIS LABOR DAY.
TRENDED TOWARD WARMER NAM-MOS GUIDANCE WITH ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S FOR MOST SECTIONS. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN PLACE...GENERALLY S-SW
5-8 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING EASTWARD PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO AFTER 06Z. SHOULD BE
GENERALLY TRANQUIL FOR OUR AREA...ALBEIT MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 60S. SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPING S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT
FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHELTERED SPOTS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CALM...AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS EAST
OF THE GREENS. INCREASING MID-UPR CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NRN NY INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BTV-4KM AND
BTV-12KM WRF RUNS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK
CHAMPLAIN VLY WWD...AND WILL INCLUDE 20-30 POPS TO COVER THIS PROSPECT
FOR THE PRE-DAWN HRS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH PREVAILING
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS (UPR 60S DEW POINTS). 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO
+18C BY 00Z GFS AND NAM...THOUGH MODELS NOW SHOW A BIT MORE MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS MAY HOLD BACK INSTABILITY A BIT...THOUGH WE SHOULD
STILL SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (WARMEST ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS). INSTABILITY IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY 500-1000 J/KG PER
GFS/NAM BETWEEN 18-21Z TUESDAY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STILL LOOKS
MODERATELY STRONG...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS
EXPECTED. GIVEN STRONG FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING
FRONT...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING IN NRN NY BETWEEN 16-18Z
BEFORE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS VT 18-00Z. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE
THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL CAPE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY
AROUND 6C/KM. THAT SAID...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN PW VALUES 1.80 TO 2.00".

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH VT 00-03Z WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY WIND SHIFT. WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS THRU
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN VT BEFORE ACTIVITY
EXITS TO THE EAST. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THUNDER THREAT
SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 00-01Z. GRADIENT WINDS AND MODEST CAA
LIKELY LIMIT FOG FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SET UP A NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
VARIABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE 2-M DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS WELL...GENERALLY
MID-UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND
BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BUT PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS
WILL ALSO EXIST. FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
15Z WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED...BUT A FEW PERIODS OF
LIFR AND VLIFR VISIBILITIES. AFTER 15Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RETURNING TO
KMPV AND KSLK AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW







000
FXUS61 KALY 011046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ONE MORE UPDATE AS RADAR NOW INDICATED SOME WEAK
RETURNS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF ALBANY.
SUSPECT THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF DRIZZLE OVER THE HILLTOWNS AND
EVEN A LITTLE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE VALLEYS. WE INCLUDED DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH THE FOG (MORE EXTENSIVE HIGHER TERRAIN) UNTIL 900 AM EDT.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY
AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 011045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
645 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...LABOR DAY...BRINGING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A MODERATELY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 639 AM EDT MONDAY...COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NEAR SHERBROOKE QUEBEC AT 1040Z WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EWD ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED FORCING HAS
GENERALLY SHIFTED EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE AT THIS POINT...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TODAY. SOME BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING
IN THE OVERCAST...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE LEADING TO PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. VERY HUMID AIR MASS
DID LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND THAT
FOG WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY 12-1230Z.

THE UPPER LOW ISN/T ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE.
THUS...THE RELATIVELY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPR 60S AREAWIDE WILL REMAIN. 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS IN TODAY FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED AND
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +15C TO
+16C...WILL FEEL LIKE MID-SUMMER CONDITIONS FOR THIS LABOR DAY.
TRENDED TOWARD WARMER NAM-MOS GUIDANCE WITH ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S FOR MOST SECTIONS. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN PLACE...GENERALLY S-SW
5-8 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING EASTWARD PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO AFTER 06Z. SHOULD BE
GENERALLY TRANQUIL FOR OUR AREA...ALBEIT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S. SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPING S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT
FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHELTERED SPOTS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CALM...AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS EAST
OF THE GREENS. INCREASING MID-UPR CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NRN NY INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BTV-4KM AND
BTV-12KM WRF RUNS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK
CHAMPLAIN VLY WWD...AND WILL INCLUDE 20-30 POPS TO COVER THIS PROSPECT
FOR THE PRE-DAWN HRS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH PREVAILING
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS (UPR 60S DEWPOINTS). 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO
+18C BY 00Z GFS AND NAM...THOUGH MODELS NOW SHOW A BIT MORE MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS MAY HOLD BACK INSTABILITY A BIT...THOUGH WE SHOULD
STILL SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (WARMEST ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS). INSTABILITY IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY 500-1000 J/KG PER
GFS/NAM BETWEEN 18-21Z TUESDAY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STILL LOOKS
MODERATELY STRONG...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS
EXPECTED. GIVEN STRONG FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING
FRONT...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING IN NRN NY BETWEEN 16-18Z
BEFORE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS VT 18-00Z. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE
THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL CAPE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY
AROUND 6C/KM. THAT SAID...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN PW VALUES 1.80 TO 2.00".

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH VT 00-03Z WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY WIND SHIFT. WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS THRU
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN VT BEFORE ACTIVITY
EXITS TO THE EAST. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THUNDER THREAT
SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 00-01Z. GRADIENT WINDS AND MODEST CAA
LIKELY LIMIT FOG FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SET UP A NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
VARIABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE 2-M DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS WELL...GENERALLY
MID-UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND
BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST OR DEVELOP AT
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 13Z WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR VISIBILITIES. AFTER 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW







000
FXUS61 KBTV 011045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
645 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...LABOR DAY...BRINGING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A MODERATELY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 639 AM EDT MONDAY...COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NEAR SHERBROOKE QUEBEC AT 1040Z WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EWD ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED FORCING HAS
GENERALLY SHIFTED EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE AT THIS POINT...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TODAY. SOME BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING
IN THE OVERCAST...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE LEADING TO PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. VERY HUMID AIR MASS
DID LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND THAT
FOG WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY 12-1230Z.

THE UPPER LOW ISN/T ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE.
THUS...THE RELATIVELY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPR 60S AREAWIDE WILL REMAIN. 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS IN TODAY FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED AND
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +15C TO
+16C...WILL FEEL LIKE MID-SUMMER CONDITIONS FOR THIS LABOR DAY.
TRENDED TOWARD WARMER NAM-MOS GUIDANCE WITH ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S FOR MOST SECTIONS. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN PLACE...GENERALLY S-SW
5-8 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING EASTWARD PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO AFTER 06Z. SHOULD BE
GENERALLY TRANQUIL FOR OUR AREA...ALBEIT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S. SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPING S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT
FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHELTERED SPOTS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CALM...AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS EAST
OF THE GREENS. INCREASING MID-UPR CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NRN NY INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BTV-4KM AND
BTV-12KM WRF RUNS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK
CHAMPLAIN VLY WWD...AND WILL INCLUDE 20-30 POPS TO COVER THIS PROSPECT
FOR THE PRE-DAWN HRS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH PREVAILING
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS (UPR 60S DEWPOINTS). 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO
+18C BY 00Z GFS AND NAM...THOUGH MODELS NOW SHOW A BIT MORE MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS MAY HOLD BACK INSTABILITY A BIT...THOUGH WE SHOULD
STILL SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (WARMEST ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS). INSTABILITY IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY 500-1000 J/KG PER
GFS/NAM BETWEEN 18-21Z TUESDAY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STILL LOOKS
MODERATELY STRONG...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS
EXPECTED. GIVEN STRONG FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING
FRONT...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING IN NRN NY BETWEEN 16-18Z
BEFORE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS VT 18-00Z. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE
THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL CAPE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY
AROUND 6C/KM. THAT SAID...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN PW VALUES 1.80 TO 2.00".

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH VT 00-03Z WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY WIND SHIFT. WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS THRU
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN VT BEFORE ACTIVITY
EXITS TO THE EAST. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THUNDER THREAT
SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 00-01Z. GRADIENT WINDS AND MODEST CAA
LIKELY LIMIT FOG FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SET UP A NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
VARIABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE 2-M DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS WELL...GENERALLY
MID-UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND
BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST OR DEVELOP AT
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 13Z WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR VISIBILITIES. AFTER 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW






000
FXUS61 KALY 011035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...DEALING WITH PATCHES TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. GROUND TRUTH
INDICATED VISIBILITY GENERALLY BETTER THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE...SO
AT THIS TIME...WE PLAN NO DENSE FOG ADVISORIES OR SPECIAL STATEMENTS
REGARDING THE FOG.

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY
AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 011035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...DEALING WITH PATCHES TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. GROUND TRUTH
INDICATED VISIBILITY GENERALLY BETTER THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE...SO
AT THIS TIME...WE PLAN NO DENSE FOG ADVISORIES OR SPECIAL STATEMENTS
REGARDING THE FOG.

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY
AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 011005
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
605 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


CORRECTED CAPE VALUE IN THE THIRD PARAGRAPH OF THE NEAR
TERM...SHOULD BE 1500 J/KG.









000
FXUS61 KALY 011005
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
605 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


CORRECTED CAPE VALUE IN THE THIRD PARAGRAPH OF THE NEAR
TERM...SHOULD BE 1500 J/KG.










000
FXUS61 KALY 010849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
15000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 010849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
15000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 010849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
15000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 010849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
15000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 010750
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...LABOR DAY...BRINGING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A MODERATELY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NEAR MONTREAL QUEBEC AT 0730Z WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY EWD ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER THROUGH 12Z.
JUST A FEW ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VT THROUGH 12Z OR
SO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BEFORE FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF OUR
LONGITUDE. ELSEWHERE...SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST HAVE DEVELOPED
LEADING TO PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG THAT WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY
12-1230Z.

THE UPPER LOW ISN/T ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE.
THUS...THE RELATIVELY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPR 60S AREAWIDE WILL REMAIN. 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS IN TODAY FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED AND
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THUS...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THIS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. COMBINED WITH
850MB TEMPS +15C TO +16C...WILL FEEL LIKE MID-SUMMER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER NAM-MOS GUIDANCE WITH
ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S FOR MOST SECTIONS.
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN
PLACE...GENERALLY S-SW 5-8 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING EASTWARD PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO AFTER 06Z. SHOULD BE
GENERALLY TRANQUIL FOR OUR AREA...ALBEIT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S. SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPING S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT
FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHELTERED SPOTS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CALM...AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS EAST
OF THE GREENS. INCREASING MID-UPR CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NRN NY INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BTV-4KM AND
BTV-12KM WRF RUNS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK
CHAMPLAIN VLY WWD...AND WILL INCLUDE 20-30 POPS TO COVER THIS PROSPECT
FOR THE PRE-DAWN HRS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH PREVAILING
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS (UPR 60S DEWPOINTS). 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO
+18C BY 00Z GFS AND NAM...THOUGH MODELS NOW SHOW A BIT MORE MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS MAY HOLD BACK INSTABILITY A BIT...THOUGH WE SHOULD
STILL SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (WARMEST ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS). INSTABILITY IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY 500-1000 J/KG PER
GFS/NAM BETWEEN 18-21Z TUESDAY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STILL LOOKS
MODERATELY STRONG...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS
EXPECTED. GIVEN STRONG FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING
FRONT...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING IN NRN NY BETWEEN 16-18Z
BEFORE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS VT 18-00Z. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE
THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL CAPE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY
AROUND 6C/KM. THAT SAID...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN PW VALUES 1.80 TO 2.00".

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH VT 00-03Z WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY WIND SHIFT. WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS THRU
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN VT BEFORE ACTIVITY
EXITS TO THE EAST. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THUNDER THREAT
SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 00-01Z. GRADIENT WINDS AND MODEST CAA
LIKELY LIMIT FOG FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SET UP A NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
VARIABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE 2-M DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS WELL...GENERALLY
MID-UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND
BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST OR DEVELOP AT
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 13Z WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR VISIBILITIES. AFTER 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW






000
FXUS61 KBTV 010750
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...LABOR DAY...BRINGING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A MODERATELY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NEAR MONTREAL QUEBEC AT 0730Z WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY EWD ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER THROUGH 12Z.
JUST A FEW ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VT THROUGH 12Z OR
SO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BEFORE FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF OUR
LONGITUDE. ELSEWHERE...SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST HAVE DEVELOPED
LEADING TO PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG THAT WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY
12-1230Z.

THE UPPER LOW ISN/T ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE.
THUS...THE RELATIVELY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPR 60S AREAWIDE WILL REMAIN. 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS IN TODAY FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED AND
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THUS...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THIS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. COMBINED WITH
850MB TEMPS +15C TO +16C...WILL FEEL LIKE MID-SUMMER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER NAM-MOS GUIDANCE WITH
ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S FOR MOST SECTIONS.
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN
PLACE...GENERALLY S-SW 5-8 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING EASTWARD PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO AFTER 06Z. SHOULD BE
GENERALLY TRANQUIL FOR OUR AREA...ALBEIT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S. SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPING S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT
FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHELTERED SPOTS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CALM...AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS EAST
OF THE GREENS. INCREASING MID-UPR CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NRN NY INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BTV-4KM AND
BTV-12KM WRF RUNS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK
CHAMPLAIN VLY WWD...AND WILL INCLUDE 20-30 POPS TO COVER THIS PROSPECT
FOR THE PRE-DAWN HRS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH PREVAILING
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS (UPR 60S DEWPOINTS). 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO
+18C BY 00Z GFS AND NAM...THOUGH MODELS NOW SHOW A BIT MORE MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS MAY HOLD BACK INSTABILITY A BIT...THOUGH WE SHOULD
STILL SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (WARMEST ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS). INSTABILITY IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY 500-1000 J/KG PER
GFS/NAM BETWEEN 18-21Z TUESDAY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STILL LOOKS
MODERATELY STRONG...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS
EXPECTED. GIVEN STRONG FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING
FRONT...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING IN NRN NY BETWEEN 16-18Z
BEFORE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS VT 18-00Z. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE
THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL CAPE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY
AROUND 6C/KM. THAT SAID...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN PW VALUES 1.80 TO 2.00".

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH VT 00-03Z WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY WIND SHIFT. WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS THRU
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN VT BEFORE ACTIVITY
EXITS TO THE EAST. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THUNDER THREAT
SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 00-01Z. GRADIENT WINDS AND MODEST CAA
LIKELY LIMIT FOG FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SET UP A NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
VARIABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE 2-M DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS WELL...GENERALLY
MID-UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND
BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST OR DEVELOP AT
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 13Z WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR VISIBILITIES. AFTER 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW







000
FXUS61 KALY 010625
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1259 AM EDT...KENX RADAR WAS DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION. A
DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND IN ITS WAKE WAS SOME
RIDGING ALOFT (WHICH INDUCED SUBSIDENCE OR SINKING MOTION).

AS A RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ALL "SENSIBLE" POPS (15
PERCENT OR HIGHER) AND CAME UP WITH A 14 PERCENT POP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL AROUND 70 AND FALLING VERY LITTLE
IF ANY AT ALL. SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON RADAR. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS
IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

WE DID CONTINUE THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...AND IT
COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS












000
FXUS61 KALY 010625
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1259 AM EDT...KENX RADAR WAS DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION. A
DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND IN ITS WAKE WAS SOME
RIDGING ALOFT (WHICH INDUCED SUBSIDENCE OR SINKING MOTION).

AS A RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ALL "SENSIBLE" POPS (15
PERCENT OR HIGHER) AND CAME UP WITH A 14 PERCENT POP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL AROUND 70 AND FALLING VERY LITTLE
IF ANY AT ALL. SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON RADAR. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS
IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

WE DID CONTINUE THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...AND IT
COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS













000
FXUS61 KBTV 010539
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
139 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT MONDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX SLIDING
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW
REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FRANKLIN/CLINTON NY COUNTIES AT
05Z. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME 30-40 POPS ACROSS NRN TIER OF COUNTIES
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SOUTH OF
A BTV-1V4 LINE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NEXT 1-3 HRS...AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA AS
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST SECTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE AS A RESULT OF THE HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH LOWS NEAR 70F AT BTV AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS S-SW 5-8 MPH WILL
GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND
STRONG. HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY
BE DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS
WERE TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR
HWO...THOUGH KEEP PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S)
UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUILDING HEIGHTS WITH SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST OR DEVELOP AT
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 13Z WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR VISIBILITIES. AFTER 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW






000
FXUS61 KBTV 010508
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
108 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT MONDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX SLIDING
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW
REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FRANKLIN/CLINTON NY COUNTIES AT
05Z. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME 30-40 POPS ACROSS NRN TIER OF COUNTIES
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SOUTH OF
A BTV-1V4 LINE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NEXT 1-3 HRS...AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST SECTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE AS A RESULT OF THE HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH LOWS NEAR 70F AT BTV AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS S-SW 5-8 MPH WILL
GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AS OF
00Z MONDAY. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS OF 00Z MONDAY...BUT
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND MIST OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING ANY FOG OR MIST TO LIFT BY 14Z MONDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY SO LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SURFACE TO 5000 FEET...BUT STILL EXPECTING VFR
CEILINGS AFTER 14Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW







000
FXUS61 KBTV 010508
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
108 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT MONDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX SLIDING
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW
REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FRANKLIN/CLINTON NY COUNTIES AT
05Z. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME 30-40 POPS ACROSS NRN TIER OF COUNTIES
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SOUTH OF
A BTV-1V4 LINE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NEXT 1-3 HRS...AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST SECTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE AS A RESULT OF THE HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH LOWS NEAR 70F AT BTV AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS S-SW 5-8 MPH WILL
GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AS OF
00Z MONDAY. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS OF 00Z MONDAY...BUT
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND MIST OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING ANY FOG OR MIST TO LIFT BY 14Z MONDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY SO LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SURFACE TO 5000 FEET...BUT STILL EXPECTING VFR
CEILINGS AFTER 14Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW








000
FXUS61 KALY 010459
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1259 AM EDT...KENX RADAR WAS DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION. A
DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND IN ITS WAKE WAS SOME
RIDGING ALOFT (WHICH INDUCED SUBSIDENCE OR SINKING MOTION).

AS A RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ALL "SENSIBLE" POPS (15
PERCENT OR HIGHER) AND CAME UP WITH A 14 PERCENT POP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL AROUND 70 AND FALLING VERY LITTLE
IF ANY AT ALL. SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON RADAR. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS
IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

WE DID CONTINUE THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...AND IT
COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KALY 010459
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1259 AM EDT...KENX RADAR WAS DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION. A
DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND IN ITS WAKE WAS SOME
RIDGING ALOFT (WHICH INDUCED SUBSIDENCE OR SINKING MOTION).

AS A RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ALL "SENSIBLE" POPS (15
PERCENT OR HIGHER) AND CAME UP WITH A 14 PERCENT POP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL AROUND 70 AND FALLING VERY LITTLE
IF ANY AT ALL. SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON RADAR. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS
IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

WE DID CONTINUE THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...AND IT
COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 010239
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1039 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1039...OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...OUR RADAR HAS NO ECHOES
AS PRECIPITATION IS NOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST CONTINUING TO TAKE PLACE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. WEB CAMS AND AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS
SHOW THAT FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WERE
ADDED TO THE GRIDS WITH THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
BASED ON RADAR. NOT MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 010239
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1039 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1039...OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...OUR RADAR HAS NO ECHOES
AS PRECIPITATION IS NOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST CONTINUING TO TAKE PLACE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. WEB CAMS AND AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS
SHOW THAT FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WERE
ADDED TO THE GRIDS WITH THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
BASED ON RADAR. NOT MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 010217
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1017 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1012 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED FCST TO CONT TO MENTION CHC
POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A POTSDAM TO PLATTSBURGH TO MORRISVILLE
LINE THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CRNT RADAR SHOWS CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT 5H VORT MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS WL CONT TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.05 AND 0.15". OTHERWISE...STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER HERE OR THERE ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
VT...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WL BE VERY LIMITED. GIVEN VERY HIGH SFC
DWPTS...EXPECT AREAS OF BR/FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS AFT MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WL SLOWLY FALL BACK INTO THE 60S WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AS OF
00Z MONDAY. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS OF 00Z MONDAY...BUT
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND MIST OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING ANY FOG OR MIST TO LIFT BY 14Z MONDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY SO LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SURFACE TO 5000 FEET...BUT STILL EXPECTING VFR
CEILINGS AFTER 14Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW











000
FXUS61 KBTV 010012
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
812 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 707 PM EDT SUNDAY...SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO CRNT FORECAST
BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. FIRST I HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF THUNDER AFT 00Z TONIGHT...AS SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY IS
DECREASING QUICKLY ACRS OUR CWA. MAYBE A RUMBLE OR TWO OUT TWD THE
SLV...ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY...BUT HAVE
NOTICED VERY LIMITED LIGHTNING WITH THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS.
ALSO...HAVE DECREASED POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT
THIS EVENING...WITH CRNT RADAR SHOWING BEST PRECIP ACRS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WINDSOR COUNTY. VSF DID PICK UP A QUICK 0.12 OF PRECIP
IN THE PAST...BUT GIVEN CRNT TRENDS THIS SHOULD BE EAST OF REGION
BY 00Z. OTHERWISE...WITH PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACRS
OUR REGION...EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES TO CONT ACRS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND THE DACKS...WITH PATCHY FOG LIKELY OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN. HAVE INCREASED SFC DWPTS IN HRLY GRIDS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES WITH MANY READINGS IN THE U60S TO L70S ACRS OUR
REGION...MAKING IT FEEL VERY MUGGY OUTSIDE. REST OF FCST IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST FOLLOWS...
FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. AGAIN...LITTLE
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD (60S) AND WINDS REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO AS PARENT UPPER H5
SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN 00-06Z. WITH PWATS STILL
ON THE HIGH SIDE (1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES) SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THOUGH WITH MEAN CELL MOVEMENT
OF 15-20 KT HYDRO CONCERNS APPEAR MINIMAL ATTM. THEREAFTER
CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND LARGELY DRY LATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH PUSHES
EAST/SOUTH AND MODEST SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. PATCHY FOG ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN FAVORED
LOCALES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING MORE WIDESPREAD IS LOW GIVEN
WE LIKELY WON`T COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINING SEASONABLY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AS OF
00Z MONDAY. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS OF 00Z MONDAY...BUT
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND MIST OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING ANY FOG OR MIST TO LIFT BY 14Z MONDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY SO LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SURFACE TO 5000 FEET...BUT STILL EXPECTING VFR
CEILINGS AFTER 14Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW








000
FXUS61 KBTV 010012
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
812 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 707 PM EDT SUNDAY...SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO CRNT FORECAST
BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. FIRST I HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF THUNDER AFT 00Z TONIGHT...AS SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY IS
DECREASING QUICKLY ACRS OUR CWA. MAYBE A RUMBLE OR TWO OUT TWD THE
SLV...ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY...BUT HAVE
NOTICED VERY LIMITED LIGHTNING WITH THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS.
ALSO...HAVE DECREASED POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT
THIS EVENING...WITH CRNT RADAR SHOWING BEST PRECIP ACRS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WINDSOR COUNTY. VSF DID PICK UP A QUICK 0.12 OF PRECIP
IN THE PAST...BUT GIVEN CRNT TRENDS THIS SHOULD BE EAST OF REGION
BY 00Z. OTHERWISE...WITH PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACRS
OUR REGION...EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES TO CONT ACRS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND THE DACKS...WITH PATCHY FOG LIKELY OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN. HAVE INCREASED SFC DWPTS IN HRLY GRIDS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES WITH MANY READINGS IN THE U60S TO L70S ACRS OUR
REGION...MAKING IT FEEL VERY MUGGY OUTSIDE. REST OF FCST IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST FOLLOWS...
FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. AGAIN...LITTLE
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD (60S) AND WINDS REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO AS PARENT UPPER H5
SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN 00-06Z. WITH PWATS STILL
ON THE HIGH SIDE (1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES) SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THOUGH WITH MEAN CELL MOVEMENT
OF 15-20 KT HYDRO CONCERNS APPEAR MINIMAL ATTM. THEREAFTER
CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND LARGELY DRY LATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH PUSHES
EAST/SOUTH AND MODEST SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. PATCHY FOG ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN FAVORED
LOCALES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING MORE WIDESPREAD IS LOW GIVEN
WE LIKELY WON`T COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINING SEASONABLY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AS OF
00Z MONDAY. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS OF 00Z MONDAY...BUT
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND MIST OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING ANY FOG OR MIST TO LIFT BY 14Z MONDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY SO LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SURFACE TO 5000 FEET...BUT STILL EXPECTING VFR
CEILINGS AFTER 14Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW







000
FXUS61 KALY 312341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
741 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 312341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
741 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 312341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
741 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 312341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
741 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 312322 CCA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

CORRECTED TYPO.








000
FXUS61 KALY 312322 CCA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

CORRECTED TYPO.








000
FXUS61 KALY 312322 CCA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

CORRECTED TYPO.








000
FXUS61 KALY 312322 CCA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

CORRECTED TYPO.








000
FXUS61 KALY 312320
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNSET ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 312320
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNSET ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 312314
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
714 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 707 PM EDT SUNDAY...SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO CRNT FORECAST
BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. FIRST I HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF THUNDER AFT 00Z TONIGHT...AS SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY IS
DECREASING QUICKLY ACRS OUR CWA. MAYBE A RUMBLE OR TWO OUT TWD THE
SLV...ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY...BUT HAVE
NOTICED VERY LIMITED LIGHTNING WITH THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS.
ALSO...HAVE DECREASED POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT
THIS EVENING...WITH CRNT RADAR SHOWING BEST PRECIP ACRS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WINDSOR COUNTY. VSF DID PICK UP A QUICK 0.12 OF PRECIP
IN THE PAST...BUT GIVEN CRNT TRENDS THIS SHOULD BE EAST OF REGION
BY 00Z. OTHERWISE...WITH PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACRS
OUR REGION...EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES TO CONT ACRS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND THE DACKS...WITH PATCHY FOG LIKELY OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN. HAVE INCREASED SFC DWPTS IN HRLY GRIDS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES WITH MANY READINGS IN THE U60S TO L70S ACRS OUR
REGION...MAKING IT FEEL VERY MUGGY OUTSIDE. REST OF FCST IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST FOLLOWS...
FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. AGAIN...LITTLE
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD (60S) AND WINDS REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO AS PARENT UPPER H5
SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN 00-06Z. WITH PWATS STILL
ON THE HIGH SIDE (1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES) SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THOUGH WITH MEAN CELL MOVEMENT
OF 15-20 KT HYDRO CONCERNS APPEAR MINIMAL ATTM. THEREAFTER
CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND LARGELY DRY LATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH PUSHES
EAST/SOUTH AND MODEST SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. PATCHY FOG ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN FAVORED
LOCALES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING MORE WIDESPREAD IS LOW GIVEN
WE LIKELY WON`T COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINING SEASONABLY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW










000
FXUS61 KALY 312004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 312004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 312004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 312004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 311939
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK
FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION. AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD (60S) AND WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT OR SO AS PARENT UPPER H5 SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE INTL BORDER
BETWEEN 00-06Z. WITH PWATS STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE (1.7 TO 1.9
INCHES) SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WITH MEAN CELL MOVEMENT OF 15-20 KT HYDRO
CONCERNS APPEAR MINIMAL ATTM. THEREAFTER CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND
LARGELY DRY LATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH PUSHES EAST/SOUTH AND MODEST
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. PATCHY FOG
ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN FAVORED LOCALES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING
MORE WIDESPREAD IS LOW GIVEN WE LIKELY WON`T COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT
WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINING SEASONABLY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW/EVENSON






000
FXUS61 KBTV 311939
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK
FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION. AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD (60S) AND WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT OR SO AS PARENT UPPER H5 SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE INTL BORDER
BETWEEN 00-06Z. WITH PWATS STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE (1.7 TO 1.9
INCHES) SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WITH MEAN CELL MOVEMENT OF 15-20 KT HYDRO
CONCERNS APPEAR MINIMAL ATTM. THEREAFTER CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND
LARGELY DRY LATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH PUSHES EAST/SOUTH AND MODEST
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. PATCHY FOG
ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN FAVORED LOCALES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING
MORE WIDESPREAD IS LOW GIVEN WE LIKELY WON`T COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT
WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINING SEASONABLY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW/EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KBTV 311851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
251 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID TWEAK POPS/SKY SLIGHTLY BASED OFF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
AS COVERAGE EXPANDS ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS RE-ENTERING OUR NRN BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS DYING SFC TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. RECENT RUNS FROM A FEW OF THE MORE TRUSTED CAM MODELS DO
SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY SO HAVE KEPT LINGERING CHC POPS IN THESE
AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS STILL APPEAR RIGHT ON
TRACK...MAINLY 70S TO PERHAPS A SPOT 80 HERE AND THERE WHERE ANY
BRIEF SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER AND MODERATELY
STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO
ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOST SECTIONS HAVE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A SLOW RISE TO THE
MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AFFECTED
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT
DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN.
COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20
MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV






000
FXUS61 KBTV 311851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
251 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID TWEAK POPS/SKY SLIGHTLY BASED OFF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
AS COVERAGE EXPANDS ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS RE-ENTERING OUR NRN BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS DYING SFC TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. RECENT RUNS FROM A FEW OF THE MORE TRUSTED CAM MODELS DO
SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY SO HAVE KEPT LINGERING CHC POPS IN THESE
AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS STILL APPEAR RIGHT ON
TRACK...MAINLY 70S TO PERHAPS A SPOT 80 HERE AND THERE WHERE ANY
BRIEF SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER AND MODERATELY
STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO
ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOST SECTIONS HAVE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A SLOW RISE TO THE
MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AFFECTED
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT
DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN.
COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20
MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV






000
FXUS61 KBTV 311851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
251 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID TWEAK POPS/SKY SLIGHTLY BASED OFF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
AS COVERAGE EXPANDS ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS RE-ENTERING OUR NRN BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS DYING SFC TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. RECENT RUNS FROM A FEW OF THE MORE TRUSTED CAM MODELS DO
SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY SO HAVE KEPT LINGERING CHC POPS IN THESE
AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS STILL APPEAR RIGHT ON
TRACK...MAINLY 70S TO PERHAPS A SPOT 80 HERE AND THERE WHERE ANY
BRIEF SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER AND MODERATELY
STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO
ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOST SECTIONS HAVE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A SLOW RISE TO THE
MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AFFECTED
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT
DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN.
COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20
MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV






000
FXUS61 KBTV 311851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
251 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID TWEAK POPS/SKY SLIGHTLY BASED OFF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
AS COVERAGE EXPANDS ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS RE-ENTERING OUR NRN BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS DYING SFC TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. RECENT RUNS FROM A FEW OF THE MORE TRUSTED CAM MODELS DO
SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY SO HAVE KEPT LINGERING CHC POPS IN THESE
AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS STILL APPEAR RIGHT ON
TRACK...MAINLY 70S TO PERHAPS A SPOT 80 HERE AND THERE WHERE ANY
BRIEF SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER AND MODERATELY
STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO
ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOST SECTIONS HAVE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A SLOW RISE TO THE
MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AFFECTED
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT
DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN.
COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20
MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV






000
FXUS61 KBTV 311750
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
150 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID TWEAK POPS/SKY SLIGHTLY BASED OFF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
AS COVERAGE EXPANDS ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS RE-ENTERING OUR NRN BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS DYING SFC TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. RECENT RUNS FROM A FEW OF THE MORE TRUSTED CAM MODELS DO
SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY SO HAVE KEPT LINGERING CHC POPS IN THESE
AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS STILL APPEAR RIGHT ON
TRACK...MAINLY 70S TO PERHAPS A SPOT 80 HERE AND THERE WHERE ANY
BRIEF SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER AND MODERATELY
STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO
ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOST SECTIONS HAVE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A SLOW RISE TO THE
MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AFFECTED
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT
DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN.
COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20
MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV






000
FXUS61 KBTV 311750
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
150 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID TWEAK POPS/SKY SLIGHTLY BASED OFF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
AS COVERAGE EXPANDS ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS RE-ENTERING OUR NRN BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS DYING SFC TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. RECENT RUNS FROM A FEW OF THE MORE TRUSTED CAM MODELS DO
SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY SO HAVE KEPT LINGERING CHC POPS IN THESE
AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS STILL APPEAR RIGHT ON
TRACK...MAINLY 70S TO PERHAPS A SPOT 80 HERE AND THERE WHERE ANY
BRIEF SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER AND MODERATELY
STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO
ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOST SECTIONS HAVE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A SLOW RISE TO THE
MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AFFECTED
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT
DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN.
COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20
MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KALY 311737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AFFECTING ALL AREAS NOW EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SOUTH...CAPPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT
WHERE THEY ARE NOW. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL IF ANY. ANY HEAVY POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SO...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 311737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AFFECTING ALL AREAS NOW EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SOUTH...CAPPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT
WHERE THEY ARE NOW. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL IF ANY. ANY HEAVY POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SO...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 311737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AFFECTING ALL AREAS NOW EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SOUTH...CAPPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT
WHERE THEY ARE NOW. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL IF ANY. ANY HEAVY POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SO...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 311737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AFFECTING ALL AREAS NOW EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SOUTH...CAPPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT
WHERE THEY ARE NOW. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL IF ANY. ANY HEAVY POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SO...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 311727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AFFECTING ALL AREAS NOW EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SOUTH...CAPPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT
WHERE THEY ARE NOW. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL IF ANY. ANY HEAVY POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SO...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT A 5 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...THEN DETERIORATING TO MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EARLY EVENING AS THE
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCES MVFR
FOG AND STRATUS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE
FORECAST THE FOG AND STRATUS TO REACH IFR LEVELS AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 311727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AFFECTING ALL AREAS NOW EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SOUTH...CAPPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT
WHERE THEY ARE NOW. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL IF ANY. ANY HEAVY POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SO...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT A 5 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...THEN DETERIORATING TO MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EARLY EVENING AS THE
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCES MVFR
FOG AND STRATUS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE
FORECAST THE FOG AND STRATUS TO REACH IFR LEVELS AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 311502
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1102 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR REGION INTO THIS EVENING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING REVEALS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL TACONICS. THIS
LIMITED SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS THICKER CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER. LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS STILL WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BUT WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL STAY DRY FOR THE
LONGEST DURATION TODAY...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED MORE TOWARDS MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON THERE.

IN COORDINATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...WE ARE NO
LONGER IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO 5 PERCENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.5 TO 6.0 DEG C/KM WILL
LIKELY MITIGATE MOST STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE. ANOTHER LIMITING
FACTOR IS TWO CAPS NOTED ON THE 12Z ALB SOUNDING...ONE AROUND 900
MB AND ANOTHER JUST ABOVE 700 MB. DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR IS
RATHER STRONG AT 40 KT...SO A ROGUE SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO AROUND TWO INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE PAST WEEK...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

WITH THE CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80 IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...OTHERWISE
MID 70S FORECAST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT A 5 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...THEN DETERIORATING TO MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EARLY EVENING AS THE
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCES MVFR
FOG AND STRATUS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE
FORECAST THE FOG AND STRATUS TO REACH IFR LEVELS AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 311502
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1102 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR REGION INTO THIS EVENING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING REVEALS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL TACONICS. THIS
LIMITED SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS THICKER CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER. LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS STILL WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BUT WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL STAY DRY FOR THE
LONGEST DURATION TODAY...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED MORE TOWARDS MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON THERE.

IN COORDINATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...WE ARE NO
LONGER IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO 5 PERCENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.5 TO 6.0 DEG C/KM WILL
LIKELY MITIGATE MOST STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE. ANOTHER LIMITING
FACTOR IS TWO CAPS NOTED ON THE 12Z ALB SOUNDING...ONE AROUND 900
MB AND ANOTHER JUST ABOVE 700 MB. DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR IS
RATHER STRONG AT 40 KT...SO A ROGUE SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO AROUND TWO INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE PAST WEEK...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

WITH THE CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80 IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...OTHERWISE
MID 70S FORECAST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT A 5 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...THEN DETERIORATING TO MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EARLY EVENING AS THE
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCES MVFR
FOG AND STRATUS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE
FORECAST THE FOG AND STRATUS TO REACH IFR LEVELS AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 311430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID TWEAK POPS/SKY SLIGHTLY BASED OFF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
AS COVERAGE EXPANDS ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS RE-ENTERING OUR NRN BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS DYING SFC TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. RECENT RUNS FROM A FEW OF THE MORE TRUSTED CAM MODELS DO
SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY SO HAVE KEPT LINGERING CHC POPS IN THESE
AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS STILL APPEAR RIGHT ON
TRACK...MAINLY 70S TO PERHAPS A SPOT 80 HERE AND THERE WHERE ANY
BRIEF SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER AND MODERATELY
STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO
ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOST SECTIONS HAVE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A SLOW RISE TO THE
MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AFFECTED
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT
DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN.
COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20
MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 19Z AND 00Z AND PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...THEN WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV






000
FXUS61 KBTV 311148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 744 AM EDT SUNDAY...A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD
COVER AND MODERATELY STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW
POINTS ARE ALSO ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
MOST SECTIONS HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A
SLOW RISE TO THE MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS AFFECTED NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE
IN ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS
ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS
RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST.
THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE
OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN. COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS
(12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY
LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS
WILL BE ENE 10-20 MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL
ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN
MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 19Z AND 00Z AND PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...THEN WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV






000
FXUS61 KBTV 311148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 744 AM EDT SUNDAY...A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD
COVER AND MODERATELY STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW
POINTS ARE ALSO ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
MOST SECTIONS HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A
SLOW RISE TO THE MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS AFFECTED NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE
IN ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS
ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS
RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST.
THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE
OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN. COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS
(12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY
LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS
WILL BE ENE 10-20 MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL
ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN
MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 19Z AND 00Z AND PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...THEN WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 311144
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD
COVER AND MODERATELY STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
DEW POINTS ARE ALSO ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
MOST SECTIONS HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A
SLOW RISE TO THE MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AS UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT
07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND CONSISTENT MESOSCALE MODEL
RUNS...WILL LIKELY SEE ONE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
IMPACT NRN NY ACROSS NRN VT THRU MID-MORNING. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTN...WITH
BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN. COMBINATION OF
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES CLIMBING TO
1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20 MPH...AND GIVEN
DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS
DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 19Z AND 00Z AND PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...THEN WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV








000
FXUS61 KALY 311130
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
730 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRETTY MUCH
INSURE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL TURN MORE HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL
LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE WORKING INTO
AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND IT WON/T
BE LONG UNTIL THEY WILL BE RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION (PROBABLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO). SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN OUR REGION...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THE AIRMASS WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION. ALBANY BRIEFLY
HAD THEM...BUT THEY WERE NOT BEING REPORTED AT OF THIS HOUR.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD...AND BY
MIDDAY...MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WESTWARD SHOULD RECEIVE AT
LEAST ONE SHOWER...MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT
TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE (THE
EXIT REGION OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET) LOOKS TO SLIDE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH WHEN
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE THE EXIT REGION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION...TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ALSO...THERE IS LONG FETCHED TROUGH THAT WAS PULLING VERY
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...ENOUGH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW
FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE UP
TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER COULD BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY ABOUT 5.5C/KM...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS. THIS INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IF THEY BECOME
TALL ENOUGH AND AN EXTREMELY REMOTE CHANCE (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...AGAIN WITH THE MAIN RISK DAMAGING WINDS (15 PERCENT)...LARGE
HAIL (5%) AND TORNADOES (2%). WE WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW IN OUR GRIDS IN THIS SPECIFIC AREA.

PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO OVER TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THE CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...AND MID 70S WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT A 5 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...THEN DETERIORATING TO MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EARLY EVENING AS THE
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCES MVFR
FOG AND STRATUS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE
FORECAST THE FOG AND STRATUS TO REACH IFR LEVELS AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 311130
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
730 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRETTY MUCH
INSURE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL TURN MORE HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL
LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE WORKING INTO
AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND IT WON/T
BE LONG UNTIL THEY WILL BE RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION (PROBABLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO). SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN OUR REGION...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THE AIRMASS WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION. ALBANY BRIEFLY
HAD THEM...BUT THEY WERE NOT BEING REPORTED AT OF THIS HOUR.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD...AND BY
MIDDAY...MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WESTWARD SHOULD RECEIVE AT
LEAST ONE SHOWER...MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT
TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE (THE
EXIT REGION OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET) LOOKS TO SLIDE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH WHEN
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE THE EXIT REGION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION...TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ALSO...THERE IS LONG FETCHED TROUGH THAT WAS PULLING VERY
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...ENOUGH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW
FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE UP
TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER COULD BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY ABOUT 5.5C/KM...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS. THIS INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IF THEY BECOME
TALL ENOUGH AND AN EXTREMELY REMOTE CHANCE (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...AGAIN WITH THE MAIN RISK DAMAGING WINDS (15 PERCENT)...LARGE
HAIL (5%) AND TORNADOES (2%). WE WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW IN OUR GRIDS IN THIS SPECIFIC AREA.

PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO OVER TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THE CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...AND MID 70S WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT A 5 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...THEN DETERIORATING TO MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EARLY EVENING AS THE
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCES MVFR
FOG AND STRATUS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE
FORECAST THE FOG AND STRATUS TO REACH IFR LEVELS AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 311049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRETTY MUCH
INSURE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL TURN MORE HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL
LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE WORKING INTO
AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND IT WON/T
BE LONG UNTIL THEY WILL BE RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION (PROBABLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO). SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN OUR REGION...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THE AIRMASS WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION. ALBANY BRIEFLY
HAD THEM...BUT THEY WERE NOT BEING REPORTED AT OF THIS HOUR.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD...AND BY
MIDDAY...MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WESTWARD SHOULD RECEIVE AT
LEAST ONE SHOWER...MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT
TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE (THE
EXIT REGION OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET) LOOKS TO SLIDE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH WHEN
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE THE EXIT REGION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION...TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ALSO...THERE IS LONG FETCHED TROUGH THAT WAS PULLING VERY
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...ENOUGH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW
FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE UP
TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER COULD BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY ABOUT 5.5C/KM...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS. THIS INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IF THEY BECOME
TALL ENOUGH AND AN EXTREMELY REMOTE CHANCE (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...AGAIN WITH THE MAIN RISK DAMAGING WINDS (15 PERCENT)...LARGE
HAIL (5%) AND TORNADOES (2%). WE WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW IN OUR GRIDS IN THIS SPECIFIC AREA.

PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO OVER TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THE CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...AND MID 70S WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...CIGS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3000 FEET...WITH KALB STILL ONLY SCT AT
3300 FEET. AT KPSF CIGS ARE AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MAINLY VFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND MVFR AT KPSF. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL THE TAFS SITES AFTER 19Z/20Z AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE
IN...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z FOR A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
END BY AROUND 01Z/02Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO LINGER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR SOUTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 311049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRETTY MUCH
INSURE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL TURN MORE HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL
LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE WORKING INTO
AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND IT WON/T
BE LONG UNTIL THEY WILL BE RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION (PROBABLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO). SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN OUR REGION...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THE AIRMASS WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION. ALBANY BRIEFLY
HAD THEM...BUT THEY WERE NOT BEING REPORTED AT OF THIS HOUR.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD...AND BY
MIDDAY...MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WESTWARD SHOULD RECEIVE AT
LEAST ONE SHOWER...MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT
TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE (THE
EXIT REGION OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET) LOOKS TO SLIDE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH WHEN
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE THE EXIT REGION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION...TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ALSO...THERE IS LONG FETCHED TROUGH THAT WAS PULLING VERY
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...ENOUGH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW
FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE UP
TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER COULD BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY ABOUT 5.5C/KM...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS. THIS INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IF THEY BECOME
TALL ENOUGH AND AN EXTREMELY REMOTE CHANCE (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...AGAIN WITH THE MAIN RISK DAMAGING WINDS (15 PERCENT)...LARGE
HAIL (5%) AND TORNADOES (2%). WE WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW IN OUR GRIDS IN THIS SPECIFIC AREA.

PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO OVER TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THE CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...AND MID 70S WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...CIGS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3000 FEET...WITH KALB STILL ONLY SCT AT
3300 FEET. AT KPSF CIGS ARE AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MAINLY VFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND MVFR AT KPSF. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL THE TAFS SITES AFTER 19Z/20Z AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE
IN...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z FOR A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
END BY AROUND 01Z/02Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO LINGER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR SOUTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 311049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRETTY MUCH
INSURE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL TURN MORE HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL
LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE WORKING INTO
AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND IT WON/T
BE LONG UNTIL THEY WILL BE RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION (PROBABLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO). SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN OUR REGION...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THE AIRMASS WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION. ALBANY BRIEFLY
HAD THEM...BUT THEY WERE NOT BEING REPORTED AT OF THIS HOUR.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD...AND BY
MIDDAY...MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WESTWARD SHOULD RECEIVE AT
LEAST ONE SHOWER...MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT
TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE (THE
EXIT REGION OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET) LOOKS TO SLIDE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH WHEN
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE THE EXIT REGION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION...TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ALSO...THERE IS LONG FETCHED TROUGH THAT WAS PULLING VERY
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...ENOUGH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW
FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE UP
TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER COULD BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY ABOUT 5.5C/KM...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS. THIS INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IF THEY BECOME
TALL ENOUGH AND AN EXTREMELY REMOTE CHANCE (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...AGAIN WITH THE MAIN RISK DAMAGING WINDS (15 PERCENT)...LARGE
HAIL (5%) AND TORNADOES (2%). WE WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW IN OUR GRIDS IN THIS SPECIFIC AREA.

PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO OVER TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THE CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...AND MID 70S WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...CIGS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3000 FEET...WITH KALB STILL ONLY SCT AT
3300 FEET. AT KPSF CIGS ARE AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MAINLY VFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND MVFR AT KPSF. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL THE TAFS SITES AFTER 19Z/20Z AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE
IN...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z FOR A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
END BY AROUND 01Z/02Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO LINGER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR SOUTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 311049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRETTY MUCH
INSURE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL TURN MORE HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL
LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE WORKING INTO
AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND IT WON/T
BE LONG UNTIL THEY WILL BE RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION (PROBABLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO). SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN OUR REGION...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THE AIRMASS WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION. ALBANY BRIEFLY
HAD THEM...BUT THEY WERE NOT BEING REPORTED AT OF THIS HOUR.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD...AND BY
MIDDAY...MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WESTWARD SHOULD RECEIVE AT
LEAST ONE SHOWER...MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT
TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE (THE
EXIT REGION OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET) LOOKS TO SLIDE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH WHEN
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE THE EXIT REGION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION...TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ALSO...THERE IS LONG FETCHED TROUGH THAT WAS PULLING VERY
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...ENOUGH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW
FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE UP
TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER COULD BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY ABOUT 5.5C/KM...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS. THIS INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IF THEY BECOME
TALL ENOUGH AND AN EXTREMELY REMOTE CHANCE (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...AGAIN WITH THE MAIN RISK DAMAGING WINDS (15 PERCENT)...LARGE
HAIL (5%) AND TORNADOES (2%). WE WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW IN OUR GRIDS IN THIS SPECIFIC AREA.

PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO OVER TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THE CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...AND MID 70S WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...CIGS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3000 FEET...WITH KALB STILL ONLY SCT AT
3300 FEET. AT KPSF CIGS ARE AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MAINLY VFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND MVFR AT KPSF. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL THE TAFS SITES AFTER 19Z/20Z AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE
IN...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z FOR A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
END BY AROUND 01Z/02Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO LINGER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR SOUTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 310848
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRETTY MUCH
INSURE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL TURN MORE HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL
LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...SHOWERS WERE FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...COVERING THE OUR
ENTIRE PORTION OF THE ADIRONDACK PORTION BY DAYBREAK.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW PRETTY MUCH OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH...IF AT ALL AS A
BREEZE CONTINUES OUT OF THE SOUTH...WHICH IS TRANSPORTING
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY.

BY DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER 60S LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS...SHOULD STAY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD...AND BY MIDDAY...MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY
NORTH AND WESTWARD SHOULD RECEIVE AT LEAST ONE SHOWER...MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT
TO COMBINE WITH DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE (THE
EXIT REGION OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET) LOOKS TO SLIDE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH WHEN
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE COLD FRONT...TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. ALSO...THERE IS LONG FETCHED TROUGH
THAT WAS PULLING VERY MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD
INTO OUR REGION.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...ENOUGH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW
FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE UP
TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER COULD BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY ABOUT 5.5C/KM...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS. THIS INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IF THEY BECOME TALL
ENOUGH AND AN EXTREMELY REMOTE CHANCE (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...AGAIN WITH THE MAIN RISK DAMAGING WINDS (15 PERCENT)...LARGE
HAIL (5%) AND TORNADOES (2%). WE WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW IN OUR GRIDS IN THIS SPECIFIC AREA.

PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO OVER TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL EVERYWHERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THE CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...AND MID 70S WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE COOLER AT
ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S. COMBINE  THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL QUITE WARM.
WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE MIGHT STILL
BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE CAPITAL
REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...CIGS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3000 FEET...WITH KALB STILL ONLY SCT AT
3300 FEET. AT KPSF CIGS ARE AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MAINLY VFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND MVFR AT KPSF. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL THE TAFS SITES AFTER 19Z/20Z AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE
IN...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z FOR A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
END BY AROUND 01Z/02Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO LINGER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR SOUTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED
SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS










000
FXUS61 KALY 310848
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRETTY MUCH
INSURE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL TURN MORE HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL
LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...SHOWERS WERE FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...COVERING THE OUR
ENTIRE PORTION OF THE ADIRONDACK PORTION BY DAYBREAK.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW PRETTY MUCH OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH...IF AT ALL AS A
BREEZE CONTINUES OUT OF THE SOUTH...WHICH IS TRANSPORTING
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY.

BY DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER 60S LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS...SHOULD STAY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD...AND BY MIDDAY...MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY
NORTH AND WESTWARD SHOULD RECEIVE AT LEAST ONE SHOWER...MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT
TO COMBINE WITH DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
BRING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE (THE
EXIT REGION OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET) LOOKS TO SLIDE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH WHEN
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE COLD FRONT...TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. ALSO...THERE IS LONG FETCHED TROUGH
THAT WAS PULLING VERY MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD
INTO OUR REGION.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...ENOUGH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES WILL ALLOW
FOR A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE UP
TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER COULD BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY ABOUT 5.5C/KM...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS. THIS INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IF THEY BECOME TALL
ENOUGH AND AN EXTREMELY REMOTE CHANCE (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...AGAIN WITH THE MAIN RISK DAMAGING WINDS (15 PERCENT)...LARGE
HAIL (5%) AND TORNADOES (2%). WE WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW IN OUR GRIDS IN THIS SPECIFIC AREA.

PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO OVER TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL EVERYWHERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THE CLOUDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...AND MID 70S WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE COOLER AT
ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S. COMBINE  THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL QUITE WARM.
WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE MIGHT STILL
BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE CAPITAL
REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...CIGS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3000 FEET...WITH KALB STILL ONLY SCT AT
3300 FEET. AT KPSF CIGS ARE AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MAINLY VFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND MVFR AT KPSF. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL THE TAFS SITES AFTER 19Z/20Z AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE
IN...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z FOR A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
END BY AROUND 01Z/02Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO LINGER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR SOUTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED
SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS









000
FXUS61 KBTV 310748
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD
COVER AND MODERATELY STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
MOST SECTIONS HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A
SLOW RISE TO THE MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AS UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT
07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND CONSISTENT MESOSCALE MODEL
RUNS...WILL LIKELY SEE ONE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
IMPACT NRN NY ACROSS NRN VT THRU MID-MORNING. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTN...WITH
BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN. COMBINATION OF
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES CLIMBING TO
1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20 MPH...AND GIVEN
DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS
DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WILL PRODUCE VFR AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AND PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...THEN WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV






000
FXUS61 KBTV 310748
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD
COVER AND MODERATELY STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
MOST SECTIONS HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A
SLOW RISE TO THE MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AS UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT
07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND CONSISTENT MESOSCALE MODEL
RUNS...WILL LIKELY SEE ONE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
IMPACT NRN NY ACROSS NRN VT THRU MID-MORNING. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTN...WITH
BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN. COMBINATION OF
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES CLIMBING TO
1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20 MPH...AND GIVEN
DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS
DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WILL PRODUCE VFR AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AND PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...THEN WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KALY 310624
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
224 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY...AS
THEY WERE MAINLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...ALONG THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

BOTH THE LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR NOW KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS OVERNIGHT SO WE DECIDED TO TRIM BACK
THE POPS EVEN MORE COMPARED TO THE LAST UPDATE.

THE IFR 11U-3.9U IFR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED STRATUS SLOWLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WERE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 60S THANKS TO THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER (THE SHOWALTER INDICES WERE GENERALLY
JUST ABOVE 0 SO MUCH INSTABILITY)...OVER MAINLY OUR PORTION OF THE
ADIRONDACK PARK. EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS.

NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOOK FOR THEM TO ONLY DROP A POINT OR
TWO MORE...GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 60S ALL NIGHT ALONG. THE
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...CIGS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3000 FEET...WITH KALB STILL ONLY SCT AT
3300 FEET. AT KPSF CIGS ARE AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MAINLY VFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND MVFR AT KPSF. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL THE TAFS SITES AFTER 19Z/20Z AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE
IN...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z FOR A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
END BY AROUND 01Z/02Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO LINGER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR SOUTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED
SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS













000
FXUS61 KALY 310624
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
224 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY...AS
THEY WERE MAINLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...ALONG THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

BOTH THE LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR NOW KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS OVERNIGHT SO WE DECIDED TO TRIM BACK
THE POPS EVEN MORE COMPARED TO THE LAST UPDATE.

THE IFR 11U-3.9U IFR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED STRATUS SLOWLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WERE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 60S THANKS TO THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER (THE SHOWALTER INDICES WERE GENERALLY
JUST ABOVE 0 SO MUCH INSTABILITY)...OVER MAINLY OUR PORTION OF THE
ADIRONDACK PARK. EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS.

NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOOK FOR THEM TO ONLY DROP A POINT OR
TWO MORE...GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 60S ALL NIGHT ALONG. THE
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...CIGS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3000 FEET...WITH KALB STILL ONLY SCT AT
3300 FEET. AT KPSF CIGS ARE AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MAINLY VFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND MVFR AT KPSF. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
ALL THE TAFS SITES AFTER 19Z/20Z AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE
IN...WITH A PROB 30 GROUP GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z FOR A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
END BY AROUND 01Z/02Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO LINGER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR SOUTH AT 8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED
SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS












000
FXUS61 KBTV 310544
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER
SEASONAL NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT SUNDAY...LEADING AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE AND NRN FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES NEXT 1-3 HRS PER RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/QPF AND
INCREASED THUNDER WORDING ACCORDINGLY. COULD SEE A QUICK 0.2-0.3"
IN SPOTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE IMMEDIATE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY DRY WITH AN ISOLD
SHOWER POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH...LOCALLY
GUSTING TO 30 MPH ON THE VT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (15-25
KTS SUSTAINED OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES IN EFFECT). WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
WIND...LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...AND LOCALLY NEAR 70F AT
BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SEVERE
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIR MASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MOUNTAIN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AT OR ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NIGHT-SAT TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WILL PRODUCE VFR AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AND PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...THEN WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 310544
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER
SEASONAL NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT SUNDAY...LEADING AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE AND NRN FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES NEXT 1-3 HRS PER RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/QPF AND
INCREASED THUNDER WORDING ACCORDINGLY. COULD SEE A QUICK 0.2-0.3"
IN SPOTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE IMMEDIATE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY DRY WITH AN ISOLD
SHOWER POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH...LOCALLY
GUSTING TO 30 MPH ON THE VT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (15-25
KTS SUSTAINED OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES IN EFFECT). WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
WIND...LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...AND LOCALLY NEAR 70F AT
BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SEVERE
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIR MASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MOUNTAIN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AT OR ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NIGHT-SAT TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WILL PRODUCE VFR AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AND PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...THEN WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 310515
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER
SEASONAL NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT SUNDAY...LEADING AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE AND NRN FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES NEXT 1-3 HRS PER RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/QPF AND
INCREASED THUNDER WORDING ACCORDINGLY. COULD SEE A QUICK 0.2-0.3"
IN SPOTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE IMMEDIATE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY DRY WITH AN ISOLD
SHOWER POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH...LOCALLY
GUSTING TO 30 MPH ON THE VT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (15-25
KTS SUSTAINED OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES IN EFFECT). WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
WIND...LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...AND LOCALLY NEAR 70F AT
BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FCST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MRNG AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AOA SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NGT-SAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TO BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 09Z SUNDAY SPREADING
EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THUS...ANY SHOWERS
MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST OF SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV






000
FXUS61 KALY 310454
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY...AS
THEY WERE MAINLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...ALONG THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

BOTH THE LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR NOW KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS OVERNIGHT SO WE DECIDED TO TRIM BACK
THE POPS EVEN MORE COMPARED TO THE LAST UPDATE.

THE IFR 11U-3.9U IFR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED STRATUS SLOWLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WERE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 60S THANKS TO THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER (THE SHOWALTER INDICES WERE GENERALLY
JUST ABOVE 0 SO MUCH INSTABILITY)...OVER MAINLY OUR PORTION OF THE
ADIRONDACK PARK. EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS.

NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOOK FOR THEM TO ONLY DROP A POINT OR
TWO MORE...GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 60S ALL NIGHT ALONG. THE
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB
TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KALY 310454
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY...AS
THEY WERE MAINLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...ALONG THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

BOTH THE LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR NOW KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS OVERNIGHT SO WE DECIDED TO TRIM BACK
THE POPS EVEN MORE COMPARED TO THE LAST UPDATE.

THE IFR 11U-3.9U IFR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED STRATUS SLOWLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WERE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 60S THANKS TO THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER (THE SHOWALTER INDICES WERE GENERALLY
JUST ABOVE 0 SO MUCH INSTABILITY)...OVER MAINLY OUR PORTION OF THE
ADIRONDACK PARK. EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS.

NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOOK FOR THEM TO ONLY DROP A POINT OR
TWO MORE...GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 60S ALL NIGHT ALONG. THE
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB
TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KALY 310454
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY...AS
THEY WERE MAINLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...ALONG THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

BOTH THE LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR NOW KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS OVERNIGHT SO WE DECIDED TO TRIM BACK
THE POPS EVEN MORE COMPARED TO THE LAST UPDATE.

THE IFR 11U-3.9U IFR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED STRATUS SLOWLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WERE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 60S THANKS TO THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER (THE SHOWALTER INDICES WERE GENERALLY
JUST ABOVE 0 SO MUCH INSTABILITY)...OVER MAINLY OUR PORTION OF THE
ADIRONDACK PARK. EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS.

NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOOK FOR THEM TO ONLY DROP A POINT OR
TWO MORE...GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 60S ALL NIGHT ALONG. THE
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB
TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KALY 310454
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY...AS
THEY WERE MAINLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...ALONG THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

BOTH THE LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR NOW KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS OVERNIGHT SO WE DECIDED TO TRIM BACK
THE POPS EVEN MORE COMPARED TO THE LAST UPDATE.

THE IFR 11U-3.9U IFR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED STRATUS SLOWLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WERE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 60S THANKS TO THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER (THE SHOWALTER INDICES WERE GENERALLY
JUST ABOVE 0 SO MUCH INSTABILITY)...OVER MAINLY OUR PORTION OF THE
ADIRONDACK PARK. EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS.

NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOOK FOR THEM TO ONLY DROP A POINT OR
TWO MORE...GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 60S ALL NIGHT ALONG. THE
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB
TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KALY 310203
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1003 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND
HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE SINCE EARLIER THIS EVENING. LOWER
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST...AND ARE GRADUALLY MOVING NORTH. CIRRUS CLOUDS ALSO
COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF BUFFALO NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO TO WATERTOWN. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE ONLY VERY SLOWLY GETTING CLOSER TO THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS OVER THAT AREA FOR THIS EVENING AS STORMS FLIRT WITH THE
BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES AS
WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S.

SMALL UPDATE TO THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST BASED
ON RADAR...SATELLLITE...CURRENT OBS AND LATEST RUNS OF FORECAST MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB
TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 310203
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1003 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND
HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE SINCE EARLIER THIS EVENING. LOWER
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST...AND ARE GRADUALLY MOVING NORTH. CIRRUS CLOUDS ALSO
COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF BUFFALO NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO TO WATERTOWN. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE ONLY VERY SLOWLY GETTING CLOSER TO THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS OVER THAT AREA FOR THIS EVENING AS STORMS FLIRT WITH THE
BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES AS
WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S.

SMALL UPDATE TO THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST BASED
ON RADAR...SATELLLITE...CURRENT OBS AND LATEST RUNS OF FORECAST MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB
TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 310159
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
959 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER
SEASONAL NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT SATURDAY...1ST LINE OF SHOWERS DISSIPATED ACRS
CENTRAL ST LAWRENCE COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING ARE LOCATED NEAR WATERTOWN NY.
THESE WL IMPACT THE SAME AREAS OF SLV BTWN 1030 AND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AFT
MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR AND LOCAL 4KM SHOWS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING INTO A BROKEN LINE AFT MIDNIGHT AND IMPACTING THE CPV
BTWN 09-12Z...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. WL CONT TO
MENTION CHC POPS THRU MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE TO LIKELY FROM WEST TO
EAST AFT MIDNIGHT TO COVER BETTER AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP. HAVE
NOTED LLVL JET INCREASING ACRS OUR REGION WITH CXX 925MB WINDS OF
30 TO 35 KNOTS...BUT MIXING TO THE SFC HAS ONLY OCCURRED OVER THE
WARMER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS. THINKING A FEW GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CPV OVERNIGHT...GIVEN STRENGTH OF JET.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U50S NEK TO U60S
CPV/SLV...WITH MAYBE A FEW UHI AREAS NEAR 70F FOR AN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FCST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MRNG AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AOA SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NGT-SAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TO BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 09Z SUNDAY SPREADING
EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THUS...ANY SHOWERS
MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST OF SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 310159
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
959 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER
SEASONAL NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT SATURDAY...1ST LINE OF SHOWERS DISSIPATED ACRS
CENTRAL ST LAWRENCE COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING ARE LOCATED NEAR WATERTOWN NY.
THESE WL IMPACT THE SAME AREAS OF SLV BTWN 1030 AND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AFT
MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR AND LOCAL 4KM SHOWS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING INTO A BROKEN LINE AFT MIDNIGHT AND IMPACTING THE CPV
BTWN 09-12Z...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. WL CONT TO
MENTION CHC POPS THRU MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE TO LIKELY FROM WEST TO
EAST AFT MIDNIGHT TO COVER BETTER AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP. HAVE
NOTED LLVL JET INCREASING ACRS OUR REGION WITH CXX 925MB WINDS OF
30 TO 35 KNOTS...BUT MIXING TO THE SFC HAS ONLY OCCURRED OVER THE
WARMER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS. THINKING A FEW GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CPV OVERNIGHT...GIVEN STRENGTH OF JET.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U50S NEK TO U60S
CPV/SLV...WITH MAYBE A FEW UHI AREAS NEAR 70F FOR AN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FCST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MRNG AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AOA SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NGT-SAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TO BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 09Z SUNDAY SPREADING
EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THUS...ANY SHOWERS
MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST OF SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 310159
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
959 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER
SEASONAL NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT SATURDAY...1ST LINE OF SHOWERS DISSIPATED ACRS
CENTRAL ST LAWRENCE COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING ARE LOCATED NEAR WATERTOWN NY.
THESE WL IMPACT THE SAME AREAS OF SLV BTWN 1030 AND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AFT
MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR AND LOCAL 4KM SHOWS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING INTO A BROKEN LINE AFT MIDNIGHT AND IMPACTING THE CPV
BTWN 09-12Z...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. WL CONT TO
MENTION CHC POPS THRU MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE TO LIKELY FROM WEST TO
EAST AFT MIDNIGHT TO COVER BETTER AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP. HAVE
NOTED LLVL JET INCREASING ACRS OUR REGION WITH CXX 925MB WINDS OF
30 TO 35 KNOTS...BUT MIXING TO THE SFC HAS ONLY OCCURRED OVER THE
WARMER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS. THINKING A FEW GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CPV OVERNIGHT...GIVEN STRENGTH OF JET.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U50S NEK TO U60S
CPV/SLV...WITH MAYBE A FEW UHI AREAS NEAR 70F FOR AN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FCST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MRNG AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AOA SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NGT-SAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TO BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 09Z SUNDAY SPREADING
EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THUS...ANY SHOWERS
MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST OF SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 310159
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
959 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER
SEASONAL NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT SATURDAY...1ST LINE OF SHOWERS DISSIPATED ACRS
CENTRAL ST LAWRENCE COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING ARE LOCATED NEAR WATERTOWN NY.
THESE WL IMPACT THE SAME AREAS OF SLV BTWN 1030 AND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AFT
MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR AND LOCAL 4KM SHOWS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING INTO A BROKEN LINE AFT MIDNIGHT AND IMPACTING THE CPV
BTWN 09-12Z...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. WL CONT TO
MENTION CHC POPS THRU MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE TO LIKELY FROM WEST TO
EAST AFT MIDNIGHT TO COVER BETTER AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP. HAVE
NOTED LLVL JET INCREASING ACRS OUR REGION WITH CXX 925MB WINDS OF
30 TO 35 KNOTS...BUT MIXING TO THE SFC HAS ONLY OCCURRED OVER THE
WARMER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS. THINKING A FEW GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CPV OVERNIGHT...GIVEN STRENGTH OF JET.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U50S NEK TO U60S
CPV/SLV...WITH MAYBE A FEW UHI AREAS NEAR 70F FOR AN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FCST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MRNG AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AOA SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NGT-SAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TO BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 09Z SUNDAY SPREADING
EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THUS...ANY SHOWERS
MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST OF SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 310016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
816 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER
SEASONAL NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 643 PM EDT SATURDAY...EARLY UPDATE TO FCST THIS EVENING TO
INCREASE POPS ACRS THE SLV. CRNT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO.
USING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL...PLACES THIS ACTIVITY ACRS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AROUND 00Z AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTY BY 01Z. LATEST 21Z HRRR MODELS SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING PRECIP THE BEST AND SHOWS THIS AREA QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST INTO THE SLV...BUT WEAKENING AS BEST INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED ACRS WESTERN NY. WL MENTION CHC POPS WITH THIS SECONDARY
WARM FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LLVL JET. THESE SHOWERS WL RESULT IN A
JUMP IN SFC DWPTS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN NY
TONIGHT...WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO THE CPV AFT 06Z.
THINKING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AFT MIDNIGHT ACRS
NORTHERN NY AND MOVE INTO THE CPV TWD 09Z. THIS IS ALL COVERED IN
CRNT FCST WITH CHC POPS...INCREASING TO LIKELY TOWARD DAY BREAK.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND ELEVATED ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL JET...SO
ONLY SCHC FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS
WL HOLD IN THE U50S NEK TO U60S SLV/CPV...ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASED DWPTS AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE HUMIDITY WL CONT TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE CPV. EXPECT IT
TO FEEL PRETTY HUMID BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...ACRS MOST OF THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS OFFSHORE AND A DAMPENING SFC TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHT H5
HEIGHT FALLS...INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD ON THE MILD SIDE
(60S) AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE
ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WHERE NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLJ
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FCST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MRNG AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AOA SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NGT-SAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TO BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 09Z SUNDAY SPREADING
EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THUS...ANY SHOWERS
MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST OF SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 310016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
816 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER
SEASONAL NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 643 PM EDT SATURDAY...EARLY UPDATE TO FCST THIS EVENING TO
INCREASE POPS ACRS THE SLV. CRNT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO.
USING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL...PLACES THIS ACTIVITY ACRS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AROUND 00Z AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTY BY 01Z. LATEST 21Z HRRR MODELS SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING PRECIP THE BEST AND SHOWS THIS AREA QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST INTO THE SLV...BUT WEAKENING AS BEST INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED ACRS WESTERN NY. WL MENTION CHC POPS WITH THIS SECONDARY
WARM FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LLVL JET. THESE SHOWERS WL RESULT IN A
JUMP IN SFC DWPTS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN NY
TONIGHT...WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO THE CPV AFT 06Z.
THINKING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AFT MIDNIGHT ACRS
NORTHERN NY AND MOVE INTO THE CPV TWD 09Z. THIS IS ALL COVERED IN
CRNT FCST WITH CHC POPS...INCREASING TO LIKELY TOWARD DAY BREAK.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND ELEVATED ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL JET...SO
ONLY SCHC FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS
WL HOLD IN THE U50S NEK TO U60S SLV/CPV...ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASED DWPTS AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE HUMIDITY WL CONT TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE CPV. EXPECT IT
TO FEEL PRETTY HUMID BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...ACRS MOST OF THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS OFFSHORE AND A DAMPENING SFC TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHT H5
HEIGHT FALLS...INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD ON THE MILD SIDE
(60S) AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE
ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WHERE NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLJ
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FCST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MRNG AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AOA SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NGT-SAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TO BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 09Z SUNDAY SPREADING
EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THUS...ANY SHOWERS
MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST OF SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 310016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
816 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER
SEASONAL NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 643 PM EDT SATURDAY...EARLY UPDATE TO FCST THIS EVENING TO
INCREASE POPS ACRS THE SLV. CRNT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO.
USING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL...PLACES THIS ACTIVITY ACRS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AROUND 00Z AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTY BY 01Z. LATEST 21Z HRRR MODELS SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING PRECIP THE BEST AND SHOWS THIS AREA QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST INTO THE SLV...BUT WEAKENING AS BEST INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED ACRS WESTERN NY. WL MENTION CHC POPS WITH THIS SECONDARY
WARM FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LLVL JET. THESE SHOWERS WL RESULT IN A
JUMP IN SFC DWPTS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN NY
TONIGHT...WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO THE CPV AFT 06Z.
THINKING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AFT MIDNIGHT ACRS
NORTHERN NY AND MOVE INTO THE CPV TWD 09Z. THIS IS ALL COVERED IN
CRNT FCST WITH CHC POPS...INCREASING TO LIKELY TOWARD DAY BREAK.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND ELEVATED ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL JET...SO
ONLY SCHC FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS
WL HOLD IN THE U50S NEK TO U60S SLV/CPV...ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASED DWPTS AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE HUMIDITY WL CONT TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE CPV. EXPECT IT
TO FEEL PRETTY HUMID BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...ACRS MOST OF THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS OFFSHORE AND A DAMPENING SFC TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHT H5
HEIGHT FALLS...INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD ON THE MILD SIDE
(60S) AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE
ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WHERE NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLJ
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FCST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MRNG AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AOA SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NGT-SAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TO BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 09Z SUNDAY SPREADING
EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THUS...ANY SHOWERS
MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST OF SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 310016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
816 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER
SEASONAL NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 643 PM EDT SATURDAY...EARLY UPDATE TO FCST THIS EVENING TO
INCREASE POPS ACRS THE SLV. CRNT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO.
USING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL...PLACES THIS ACTIVITY ACRS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AROUND 00Z AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTY BY 01Z. LATEST 21Z HRRR MODELS SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING PRECIP THE BEST AND SHOWS THIS AREA QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST INTO THE SLV...BUT WEAKENING AS BEST INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED ACRS WESTERN NY. WL MENTION CHC POPS WITH THIS SECONDARY
WARM FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LLVL JET. THESE SHOWERS WL RESULT IN A
JUMP IN SFC DWPTS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN NY
TONIGHT...WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO THE CPV AFT 06Z.
THINKING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AFT MIDNIGHT ACRS
NORTHERN NY AND MOVE INTO THE CPV TWD 09Z. THIS IS ALL COVERED IN
CRNT FCST WITH CHC POPS...INCREASING TO LIKELY TOWARD DAY BREAK.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND ELEVATED ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL JET...SO
ONLY SCHC FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS
WL HOLD IN THE U50S NEK TO U60S SLV/CPV...ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASED DWPTS AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE HUMIDITY WL CONT TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE CPV. EXPECT IT
TO FEEL PRETTY HUMID BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...ACRS MOST OF THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS OFFSHORE AND A DAMPENING SFC TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHT H5
HEIGHT FALLS...INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD ON THE MILD SIDE
(60S) AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE
ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WHERE NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLJ
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FCST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MRNG AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AOA SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NGT-SAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TO BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 09Z SUNDAY SPREADING
EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THUS...ANY SHOWERS
MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST OF SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KALY 302305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND
HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 704 PM...LOWER CLOUDS COVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THERE IS
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONLY VERY
SLOWLY GETTING CLOSER TO THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT DECIDED TO PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THAT AREA FOR THIS EVENING AS LATEST HRRR AND HIRESWRF MODELS HAVE SOME
SHOWERS SCRAPE THE FAR NORTHWEST. AFTER THOSE SHOWERS GO BY TO THE
NORTH LATER THIS EVENING...MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS TILL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S.

JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST BASED
ON RADAR...SATELLLITE...CURRENT OBS AND LATEST RUNS OF FORECAST MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 302305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND
HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 704 PM...LOWER CLOUDS COVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THERE IS
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONLY VERY
SLOWLY GETTING CLOSER TO THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT DECIDED TO PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THAT AREA FOR THIS EVENING AS LATEST HRRR AND HIRESWRF MODELS HAVE SOME
SHOWERS SCRAPE THE FAR NORTHWEST. AFTER THOSE SHOWERS GO BY TO THE
NORTH LATER THIS EVENING...MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS TILL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S.

JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST BASED
ON RADAR...SATELLLITE...CURRENT OBS AND LATEST RUNS OF FORECAST MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 302252
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
652 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER
SEASONAL NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 643 PM EDT SATURDAY...EARLY UPDATE TO FCST THIS EVENING TO
INCREASE POPS ACRS THE SLV. CRNT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO.
USING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL...PLACES THIS ACTIVITY ACRS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AROUND 00Z AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTY BY 01Z. LATEST 21Z HRRR MODELS SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING PRECIP THE BEST AND SHOWS THIS AREA QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST INTO THE SLV...BUT WEAKENING AS BEST INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED ACRS WESTERN NY. WL MENTION CHC POPS WITH THIS SECONDARY
WARM FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LLVL JET. THESE SHOWERS WL RESULT IN A
JUMP IN SFC DWPTS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN NY
TONIGHT...WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO THE CPV AFT 06Z.
THINKING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AFT MIDNIGHT ACRS
NORTHERN NY AND MOVE INTO THE CPV TWD 09Z. THIS IS ALL COVERED IN
CRNT FCST WITH CHC POPS...INCREASING TO LIKELY TOWARD DAY BREAK.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND ELEVATED ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL JET...SO
ONLY SCHC FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS
WL HOLD IN THE U50S NEK TO U60S SLV/CPV...ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASED DWPTS AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE HUMIDITY WL CONT TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE CPV. EXPECT IT
TO FEEL PRETTY HUMID BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...ACRS MOST OF THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS OFFSHORE AND A DAMPENING SFC TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHT H5
HEIGHT FALLS...INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD ON THE MILD SIDE
(60S) AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE
ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WHERE NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLJ
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FCST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MRNG AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AOA SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NGT-SAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OFTHE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 06Z SUNDAY SPREADING EAST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS THUS ANY SHOWERS MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN
VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...SSW 10 KTS OR SO.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV








000
FXUS61 KALY 302010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN NY IS NOT MOVING...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY IS ERODING A LITTLE. THE COVERAGE OF THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REST OF THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
APPROACH WESTERN AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOUDL ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 302010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN NY IS NOT MOVING...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY IS ERODING A LITTLE. THE COVERAGE OF THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REST OF THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
APPROACH WESTERN AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOOSENING
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOUDL ALSO BE BREAKS IN THE LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
NY/PA. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN. SO WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S SUNDAY...BUT UPPER 70S
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDER IMAGERY OF PWAT...IS SURGING NORTH
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY. SO...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL ADDRESS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR HIGH IMPACT FLOOD
THREAT EXPECTED.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY GETS...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT JUST SCATTERED...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL...SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HIGHS MONDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH IF ANY...SO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...WITH A BIT BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKING TOWARD THE
REGION. CURRENT CONSENSUS ON TIMING SUGGESTS SOME SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...THERMAL GRADIENT FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A SHOWERY START FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 809 DEGREES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S RANGE JUST PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  THEN READINGS SLOWLY BOUNCE BACK...
WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE
VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY ASS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
MONDAY SHOULD BE 55 TO 65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 301942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER SEASONAL
NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OFFSHORE AND A DAMPENING
SFC TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NRN NY
COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHT H5 HEIGHT FALLS...INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN
AND SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES TO
HOLD ON THE MILD SIDE (60S) AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WHERE
NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE 925 MB
LEVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FCST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MRNG AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AOA SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NGT-SAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OFTHE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 06Z SUNDAY SPREADING EAST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS THUS ANY SHOWERS MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN
VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...SSW 10 KTS OR SO.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 301942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER SEASONAL
NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OFFSHORE AND A DAMPENING
SFC TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NRN NY
COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHT H5 HEIGHT FALLS...INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN
AND SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES TO
HOLD ON THE MILD SIDE (60S) AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WHERE
NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE 925 MB
LEVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FCST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MRNG AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AOA SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NGT-SAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OFTHE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 06Z SUNDAY SPREADING EAST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS THUS ANY SHOWERS MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN
VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...SSW 10 KTS OR SO.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 301942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER SEASONAL
NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OFFSHORE AND A DAMPENING
SFC TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NRN NY
COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHT H5 HEIGHT FALLS...INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN
AND SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES TO
HOLD ON THE MILD SIDE (60S) AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WHERE
NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE 925 MB
LEVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FCST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MRNG AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AOA SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NGT-SAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OFTHE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 06Z SUNDAY SPREADING EAST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS THUS ANY SHOWERS MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN
VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...SSW 10 KTS OR SO.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 301942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER SEASONAL
NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OFFSHORE AND A DAMPENING
SFC TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NRN NY
COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHT H5 HEIGHT FALLS...INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN
AND SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES TO
HOLD ON THE MILD SIDE (60S) AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WHERE
NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE 925 MB
LEVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FCST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MRNG AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AOA SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NGT-SAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OFTHE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 06Z SUNDAY SPREADING EAST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS THUS ANY SHOWERS MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN
VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...SSW 10 KTS OR SO.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 301930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER SEASONAL
NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OFFSHORE AND A DAMPENING
SFC TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NRN NY
COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHT H5 HEIGHT FALLS...INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN
AND SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES TO
HOLD ON THE MILD SIDE (60S) AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WHERE
NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE 925 MB
LEVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN
THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OFTHE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 06Z SUNDAY SPREADING EAST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS THUS ANY SHOWERS MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN
VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...SSW 10 KTS OR SO.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 301930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER SEASONAL
NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OFFSHORE AND A DAMPENING
SFC TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NRN NY
COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHT H5 HEIGHT FALLS...INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN
AND SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES TO
HOLD ON THE MILD SIDE (60S) AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WHERE
NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE 925 MB
LEVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN
THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OFTHE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 06Z SUNDAY SPREADING EAST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS THUS ANY SHOWERS MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN
VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...SSW 10 KTS OR SO.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV






000
FXUS61 KBTV 301903
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
303 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY REACHING THE MID 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1049 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AS OF
LATE MORNING AND ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA (ESP CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS)
INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. GUSTING TO 25 KTS AT KBTV AS OF 1000 AM.
STILL LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE A
GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY...BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...850MB THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO THE
REGION FROM SW-NE...WITH TEMP VALUES OF +15 TO +16C BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. LOOKING
AT HIGHS REACHING THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. S-SW WINDS GENERALLY 10-15
MPH...BUT LOCALLY 20-25 MPH IN GUSTS (AND SUSTAINED 15-25 KTS OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
TODAY). WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE DAY AND
NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS IT WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED S-SW WINDS.
THIS WILL HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST
SECTIONS. LIKEWISE...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW DEW POINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S...AND LOCALLY INTO THE
MID 60S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ACROSS NRN NY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN VT. ENOUGH WIND/INCR CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHEARS EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO
ACROSS NRN NY AND VT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PERSISTENT S-SW
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE RESULTS IN PW VALUES OF
1.8-2" ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF INSTABILITY...DO ANTICIPATE SOME SBCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG. COMBINED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL UVV...WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS WITH BEST POTL FOR INSTABILITY. GIVEN HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS AND PW VALUES...CONTINUED WITH IDEA WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WLY SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR THREAT. STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING EWD ENOUGH THAT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD
THREAT. THAT SAID...A FEW LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1+" CAN/T BE
RULED OUT. POPS GENERALLY 60-80 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT DURING SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 78-81F
ACROSS THE REGION.

SYSTEM SHEARS TO OUR EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH GENERALLY FLAT SEA-
LVL PRESSURE FIELD SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG (ESPECIALLY AREAS
GETTING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY). LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET AND CONTINUED WARM/HUMID. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 80S IN VALLEY SECTIONS UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR LABOR DAY.
WINDS LIGHT SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN
THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OFTHE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 06Z SUNDAY SPREADING EAST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS THUS ANY SHOWERS MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN
VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...SSW 10 KTS OR SO.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 301903
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
303 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY REACHING THE MID 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1049 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AS OF
LATE MORNING AND ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA (ESP CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS)
INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. GUSTING TO 25 KTS AT KBTV AS OF 1000 AM.
STILL LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE A
GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY...BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...850MB THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO THE
REGION FROM SW-NE...WITH TEMP VALUES OF +15 TO +16C BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. LOOKING
AT HIGHS REACHING THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. S-SW WINDS GENERALLY 10-15
MPH...BUT LOCALLY 20-25 MPH IN GUSTS (AND SUSTAINED 15-25 KTS OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
TODAY). WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE DAY AND
NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS IT WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED S-SW WINDS.
THIS WILL HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST
SECTIONS. LIKEWISE...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW DEW POINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S...AND LOCALLY INTO THE
MID 60S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ACROSS NRN NY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN VT. ENOUGH WIND/INCR CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHEARS EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO
ACROSS NRN NY AND VT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PERSISTENT S-SW
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE RESULTS IN PW VALUES OF
1.8-2" ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF INSTABILITY...DO ANTICIPATE SOME SBCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG. COMBINED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL UVV...WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS WITH BEST POTL FOR INSTABILITY. GIVEN HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS AND PW VALUES...CONTINUED WITH IDEA WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WLY SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR THREAT. STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING EWD ENOUGH THAT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD
THREAT. THAT SAID...A FEW LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1+" CAN/T BE
RULED OUT. POPS GENERALLY 60-80 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT DURING SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 78-81F
ACROSS THE REGION.

SYSTEM SHEARS TO OUR EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH GENERALLY FLAT SEA-
LVL PRESSURE FIELD SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG (ESPECIALLY AREAS
GETTING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY). LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET AND CONTINUED WARM/HUMID. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 80S IN VALLEY SECTIONS UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR LABOR DAY.
WINDS LIGHT SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN
THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OFTHE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 06Z SUNDAY SPREADING EAST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS THUS ANY SHOWERS MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN
VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...SSW 10 KTS OR SO.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV








000
FXUS61 KALY 301747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS TODAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROXIMATE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT IN NY/PA. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 301747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS TODAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROXIMATE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT IN NY/PA. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS
NOTICEABLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM PA/NJ INTO THE CATSKILLS
OF NY...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CIGS ARE IN VFR RANGE
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WILL MENTION SCT CLOUDS EARLY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO RISE. OVERNIGHT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OVC CIGS AND SOME MIST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
OCCASIONAL IFR AT KPSF BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. WILL MENTION VCSH IN KGFL/KALB TAF PRIOR TO 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6-12 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 301730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY REACHING THE MID 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1049 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AS OF
LATE MORNING AND ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA (ESP CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS)
INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. GUSTING TO 25 KTS AT KBTV AS OF 1000 AM.
STILL LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE A
GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY...BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...850MB THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO THE
REGION FROM SW-NE...WITH TEMP VALUES OF +15 TO +16C BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. LOOKING
AT HIGHS REACHING THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. S-SW WINDS GENERALLY 10-15
MPH...BUT LOCALLY 20-25 MPH IN GUSTS (AND SUSTAINED 15-25 KTS OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
TODAY). WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE DAY AND
NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS IT WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED S-SW WINDS.
THIS WILL HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST
SECTIONS. LIKEWISE...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW DEW POINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S...AND LOCALLY INTO THE
MID 60S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ACROSS NRN NY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN VT. ENOUGH WIND/INCR CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHEARS EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO
ACROSS NRN NY AND VT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PERSISTENT S-SW
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE RESULTS IN PW VALUES OF
1.8-2" ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF INSTABILITY...DO ANTICIPATE SOME SBCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG. COMBINED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL UVV...WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS WITH BEST POTL FOR INSTABILITY. GIVEN HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS AND PW VALUES...CONTINUED WITH IDEA WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WLY SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR THREAT. STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING EWD ENOUGH THAT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD
THREAT. THAT SAID...A FEW LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1+" CAN/T BE
RULED OUT. POPS GENERALLY 60-80 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT DURING SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 78-81F
ACROSS THE REGION.

SYSTEM SHEARS TO OUR EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH GENERALLY FLAT SEA-
LVL PRESSURE FIELD SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG (ESPECIALLY AREAS
GETTING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY). LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET AND CONTINUED WARM/HUMID. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 80S IN VALLEY SECTIONS UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR LABOR DAY.
WINDS LIGHT SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN
THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OFTHE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 06Z SUNDAY SPREADING EAST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS THUS ANY SHOWERS MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN
VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...SSW 10 KTS OR SO.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 418 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AT 4 AM HAD ALREADY REACHED 18 KTS AT COLCHESTER REEF.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 20-25
KNOTS...HELPING TO BUILD WAVES TO 2-4 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELING AND LOW-LEVEL NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO
WINDS MAY NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
A FEW WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN
LAKE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...BTV






000
FXUS61 KBTV 301730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY REACHING THE MID 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1049 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AS OF
LATE MORNING AND ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA (ESP CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS)
INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. GUSTING TO 25 KTS AT KBTV AS OF 1000 AM.
STILL LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE A
GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY...BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...850MB THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO THE
REGION FROM SW-NE...WITH TEMP VALUES OF +15 TO +16C BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. LOOKING
AT HIGHS REACHING THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. S-SW WINDS GENERALLY 10-15
MPH...BUT LOCALLY 20-25 MPH IN GUSTS (AND SUSTAINED 15-25 KTS OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
TODAY). WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE DAY AND
NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS IT WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED S-SW WINDS.
THIS WILL HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST
SECTIONS. LIKEWISE...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW DEW POINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S...AND LOCALLY INTO THE
MID 60S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ACROSS NRN NY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN VT. ENOUGH WIND/INCR CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHEARS EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO
ACROSS NRN NY AND VT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PERSISTENT S-SW
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE RESULTS IN PW VALUES OF
1.8-2" ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF INSTABILITY...DO ANTICIPATE SOME SBCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG. COMBINED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL UVV...WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS WITH BEST POTL FOR INSTABILITY. GIVEN HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS AND PW VALUES...CONTINUED WITH IDEA WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WLY SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR THREAT. STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING EWD ENOUGH THAT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD
THREAT. THAT SAID...A FEW LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1+" CAN/T BE
RULED OUT. POPS GENERALLY 60-80 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT DURING SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 78-81F
ACROSS THE REGION.

SYSTEM SHEARS TO OUR EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH GENERALLY FLAT SEA-
LVL PRESSURE FIELD SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG (ESPECIALLY AREAS
GETTING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY). LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET AND CONTINUED WARM/HUMID. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 80S IN VALLEY SECTIONS UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR LABOR DAY.
WINDS LIGHT SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN
THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OFTHE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 06Z SUNDAY SPREADING EAST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS THUS ANY SHOWERS MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN
VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...SSW 10 KTS OR SO.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 418 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AT 4 AM HAD ALREADY REACHED 18 KTS AT COLCHESTER REEF.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 20-25
KNOTS...HELPING TO BUILD WAVES TO 2-4 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELING AND LOW-LEVEL NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO
WINDS MAY NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
A FEW WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN
LAKE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...BTV







000
FXUS61 KALY 301718
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS TODAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROXIMATE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT IN NY/PA. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG AT KPSF SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z...OTHERWISE EXPECT
ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF) TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KPSF.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 7 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 301718
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS TODAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROXIMATE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT IN NY/PA. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG AT KPSF SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z...OTHERWISE EXPECT
ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF) TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KPSF.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 7 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 301450
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1050 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY REACHING THE MID 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1049 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AS OF
LATE MORNING AND ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA (ESP CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS)
INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. GUSTING TO 25 KTS AT KBTV AS OF 1000 AM.
STILL LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE A
GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY...BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...850MB THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO THE
REGION FROM SW-NE...WITH TEMP VALUES OF +15 TO +16C BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. LOOKING
AT HIGHS REACHING THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. S-SW WINDS GENERALLY 10-15
MPH...BUT LOCALLY 20-25 MPH IN GUSTS (AND SUSTAINED 15-25 KTS OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
TODAY). WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE DAY AND
NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS IT WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED S-SW WINDS.
THIS WILL HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST
SECTIONS. LIKEWISE...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW DEW POINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S...AND LOCALLY INTO THE
MID 60S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ACROSS NRN NY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN VT. ENOUGH WIND/INCR CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHEARS EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO
ACROSS NRN NY AND VT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PERSISTENT S-SW
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE RESULTS IN PW VALUES OF
1.8-2" ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF INSTABILITY...DO ANTICIPATE SOME SBCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG. COMBINED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL UVV...WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS WITH BEST POTL FOR INSTABILITY. GIVEN HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS AND PW VALUES...CONTINUED WITH IDEA WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WLY SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR THREAT. STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING EWD ENOUGH THAT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD
THREAT. THAT SAID...A FEW LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1+" CAN/T BE
RULED OUT. POPS GENERALLY 60-80 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT DURING SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 78-81F
ACROSS THE REGION.

SYSTEM SHEARS TO OUR EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH GENERALLY FLAT SEA-
LVL PRESSURE FIELD SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG (ESPECIALLY AREAS
GETTING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY). LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET AND CONTINUED WARM/HUMID. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 80S IN VALLEY SECTIONS UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR LABOR DAY.
WINDS LIGHT SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN
THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET BY 06Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 13Z OR 14Z WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 418 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AT 4 AM HAD ALREADY REACHED 18 KTS AT COLCHESTER REEF.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 20-25
KNOTS...HELPING TO BUILD WAVES TO 2-4 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELING AND LOW-LEVEL NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO
WINDS MAY NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
A FEW WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN
LAKE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH
MARINE...BTV






000
FXUS61 KBTV 301450
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1050 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY REACHING THE MID 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1049 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AS OF
LATE MORNING AND ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA (ESP CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS)
INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. GUSTING TO 25 KTS AT KBTV AS OF 1000 AM.
STILL LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE A
GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY...BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...850MB THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO THE
REGION FROM SW-NE...WITH TEMP VALUES OF +15 TO +16C BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. LOOKING
AT HIGHS REACHING THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. S-SW WINDS GENERALLY 10-15
MPH...BUT LOCALLY 20-25 MPH IN GUSTS (AND SUSTAINED 15-25 KTS OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
TODAY). WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE DAY AND
NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS IT WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED S-SW WINDS.
THIS WILL HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST
SECTIONS. LIKEWISE...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW DEW POINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S...AND LOCALLY INTO THE
MID 60S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ACROSS NRN NY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN VT. ENOUGH WIND/INCR CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHEARS EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO
ACROSS NRN NY AND VT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PERSISTENT S-SW
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE RESULTS IN PW VALUES OF
1.8-2" ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF INSTABILITY...DO ANTICIPATE SOME SBCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG. COMBINED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL UVV...WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS WITH BEST POTL FOR INSTABILITY. GIVEN HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS AND PW VALUES...CONTINUED WITH IDEA WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WLY SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR THREAT. STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING EWD ENOUGH THAT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD
THREAT. THAT SAID...A FEW LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1+" CAN/T BE
RULED OUT. POPS GENERALLY 60-80 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT DURING SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 78-81F
ACROSS THE REGION.

SYSTEM SHEARS TO OUR EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH GENERALLY FLAT SEA-
LVL PRESSURE FIELD SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG (ESPECIALLY AREAS
GETTING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY). LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET AND CONTINUED WARM/HUMID. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 80S IN VALLEY SECTIONS UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR LABOR DAY.
WINDS LIGHT SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN
THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET BY 06Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 13Z OR 14Z WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 418 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AT 4 AM HAD ALREADY REACHED 18 KTS AT COLCHESTER REEF.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 20-25
KNOTS...HELPING TO BUILD WAVES TO 2-4 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FUNNELING AND LOW-LEVEL NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO
WINDS MAY NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
A FEW WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN
LAKE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH
MARINE...BTV







000
FXUS61 KALY 301442
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS TODAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
TODAY...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU EXPECTED TO BUILD THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH MORE CLOUDS CONCENTRATED OVER THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ENVELOPING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN AS THE SUN
DIMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE REGION...SO
A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG AT KPSF SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z...OTHERWISE EXPECT
ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF) TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KPSF.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 7 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 301442
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS TODAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
TODAY...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU EXPECTED TO BUILD THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH MORE CLOUDS CONCENTRATED OVER THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ENVELOPING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN AS THE SUN
DIMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE REGION...SO
A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG AT KPSF SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z...OTHERWISE EXPECT
ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF) TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KPSF.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 7 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 301442
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS TODAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
TODAY...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU EXPECTED TO BUILD THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH MORE CLOUDS CONCENTRATED OVER THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ENVELOPING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN AS THE SUN
DIMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE REGION...SO
A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG AT KPSF SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z...OTHERWISE EXPECT
ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF) TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KPSF.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 7 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 301442
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS TODAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND
MAINLY RAIN-FREE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
TODAY...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU EXPECTED TO BUILD THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH MORE CLOUDS CONCENTRATED OVER THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ENVELOPING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN AS THE SUN
DIMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE REGION...SO
A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG AT KPSF SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z...OTHERWISE EXPECT
ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF) TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KPSF.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 7 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







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