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000
FXUS61 KBTV 311147
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 747 AM EDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HOWEVER...EXPECTING CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SPREADS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY. THIS
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN CLOUD COVER...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE BEST FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WHERE AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN BE JUST EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST...EXPECTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING
HEAVIER QPF WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ALSO AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY
WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WX PATTERN
ANTICIPATED ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY LATE MONDAY...WITH BUILDING HGHTS FOR
MIDWEEK...BEFORE NEXT TROF DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST ENSEMBLE
DATA ON SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF SFC FEATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S
AND 30S...WITH COLDEST READING ACRS THE NEK OF VT. BY MONDAY...SFC
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW AND LLVL WAA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN -1C NEK
TO +1C SLV BY 00Z TUES...DEEP DRY LAYER ACRS OUR CWA. THESE TEMPS
WL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S ON MONDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TUES/WEDS...LLVL WAA CONTS INTO TUES WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARMING ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DEGREES WITH VALUES BTWN 3C AND 5C BY 00Z
WEDS...UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS. THESE WARM TEMPS WL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U40S MTNS TO MID 50S VALLEYS ON
TUES...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECT ON TUES NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S MTNS TO
MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS. BY WEDS WEAKENING SFC COLD FRNT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. IN
ADDITION..WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT IS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY...SO
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LOW LIKELY POPS ACRS NORTHERN NY AND CHC
POPS ACRS THE CPV AND VT. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS FALLING APART AND
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <.10".
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE 0C ON TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS...WITH
1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES ABOVE 550DM...SO EXPECT ALL
RAIN...EVEN ABOVE 4000 FT. WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND 1ST
BOUNDARY ON WEDS AFTN INTO THURS WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALLING
BLW 0C AGAIN...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.

NEXT POTENT 5H VORT WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURS...ALONG WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR. THIS POCKET OF
ENERGY...COMBINED WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE PROFILES...WL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME MIX RAIN/SNOW ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. THIS WL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH
LIMITED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTION...SO QPF/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT. ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR WL
FOLLOW ON THURS INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP
OCCURS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS VERY CHANGEABLE PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS WITH FEATURE RAPID WARM UPS AND COOL
DOWNS...WITH OVERALL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NEAR NORMAL CHCS FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...SFC ANALYSIS PLACES 1012MB LOW PRES OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NY/LAKE ONTARIO. CRNT OBS SHOW
VFR CONDITIONS ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR AT
SLK...WHICH SHOULD BECOME VFR SHORTLY. THINKING LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WL APPROACH MSS BY 16Z AND INTO SLK BTWN 18-20Z
TODAY...WITH DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY WL HAVE
A HARD TIME SPREADING EAST THIS EVENING WITH BEST MOISTURE
DROPPING TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ALONG WITH STRONGEST S/W ENERGY.
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO LINGER THIS EVENING ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF
SITES...WITH SOME MIX WITH SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK AFT 04Z. THIS
COULD REDUCE VIS AT TIMES TO IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT WL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT
SLK...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BY
MONDAY. ALSO...BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SFC GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE KCXX 88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
COLCHESTER VERMONT IS OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIANS HAVE CHECKED THE RADAR AND FOUND A PROBLEM WITH HIGH
VOLTAGE ARCING. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS WILL BE AT THE RADAR SITE
LATER THIS MORNING TO TRY AND FIX THIS PROBLEM. NO ESTIMATE IS
AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO THE WHEN THE RADAR WILL BE RETURNED
TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY. THIS WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS BY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN CLOUD
COVER...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE BEST FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WHERE AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN BE JUST EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST...EXPECTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING
HEAVIER QPF WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ALSO AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY
WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WX PATTERN
ANTICIPATED ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY LATE MONDAY...WITH BUILDING HGHTS FOR
MIDWEEK...BEFORE NEXT TROF DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST ENSEMBLE
DATA ON SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF SFC FEATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S
AND 30S...WITH COLDEST READING ACRS THE NEK OF VT. BY MONDAY...SFC
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW AND LLVL WAA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN -1C NEK
TO +1C SLV BY 00Z TUES...DEEP DRY LAYER ACRS OUR CWA. THESE TEMPS
WL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S ON MONDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TUES/WEDS...LLVL WAA CONTS INTO TUES WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARMING ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DEGREES WITH VALUES BTWN 3C AND 5C BY 00Z
WEDS...UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS. THESE WARM TEMPS WL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U40S MTNS TO MID 50S VALLEYS ON
TUES...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECT ON TUES NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S MTNS TO
MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS. BY WEDS WEAKENING SFC COLD FRNT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. IN
ADDITION..WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT IS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY...SO
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LOW LIKELY POPS ACRS NORTHERN NY AND CHC
POPS ACRS THE CPV AND VT. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS FALLING APART AND
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <.10".
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE 0C ON TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS...WITH
1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES ABOVE 550DM...SO EXPECT ALL
RAIN...EVEN ABOVE 4000 FT. WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND 1ST
BOUNDARY ON WEDS AFTN INTO THURS WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALLING
BLW 0C AGAIN...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.

NEXT POTENT 5H VORT WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURS...ALONG WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR. THIS POCKET OF
ENERGY...COMBINED WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE PROFILES...WL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME MIX RAIN/SNOW ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. THIS WL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH
LIMITED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTION...SO QPF/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT. ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR WL
FOLLOW ON THURS INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP
OCCURS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS VERY CHANGEABLE PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS WITH FEATURE RAPID WARM UPS AND COOL
DOWNS...WITH OVERALL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NEAR NORMAL CHCS FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...SFC ANALYSIS PLACES 1012MB LOW PRES OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NY/LAKE ONTARIO. CRNT OBS SHOW
VFR CONDITIONS ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR AT
SLK...WHICH SHOULD BECOME VFR SHORTLY. THINKING LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WL APPROACH MSS BY 16Z AND INTO SLK BTWN 18-20Z
TODAY...WITH DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY WL HAVE
A HARD TIME SPREADING EAST THIS EVENING WITH BEST MOISTURE
DROPPING TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ALONG WITH STRONGEST S/W ENERGY.
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO LINGER THIS EVENING ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF
SITES...WITH SOME MIX WITH SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK AFT 04Z. THIS
COULD REDUCE VIS AT TIMES TO IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT WL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT
SLK...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BY
MONDAY. ALSO...BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SFC GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE KCXX 88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
COLCHESTER VERMONT IS OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIANS HAVE CHECKED THE RADAR AND FOUND A PROBLEM WITH HIGH
VOLTAGE ARCING. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS WILL BE AT THE RADAR SITE
LATER THIS MORNING TO TRY AND FIX THIS PROBLEM. NO ESTIMATE IS
AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO THE WHEN THE RADAR WILL BE RETURNED
TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 311052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
LITTLE OR NO WIND.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 20S OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT
KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME
EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV













000
FXUS61 KALY 311052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
LITTLE OR NO WIND.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 20S OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT
KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME
EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV













000
FXUS61 KALY 310932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
531 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
LITTLE OR NO WIND.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 20S OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 310856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
456 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY. THIS WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS BY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN CLOUD
COVER...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE BEST FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WHERE AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN BE JUST EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST...EXPECTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING
HEAVIER QPF WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ALSO AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY
WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WX PATTERN
ANTICIPATED ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY LATE MONDAY...WITH BUILDING HGHTS FOR
MIDWEEK...BEFORE NEXT TROF DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST ENSEMBLE
DATA ON SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF SFC FEATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S
AND 30S...WITH COLDEST READING ACRS THE NEK OF VT. BY MONDAY...SFC
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW AND LLVL WAA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN -1C NEK
TO +1C SLV BY 00Z TUES...DEEP DRY LAYER ACRS OUR CWA. THESE TEMPS
WL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S ON MONDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TUES/WEDS...LLVL WAA CONTS INTO TUES WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARMING ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DEGREES WITH VALUES BTWN 3C AND 5C BY 00Z
WEDS...UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS. THESE WARM TEMPS WL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U40S MTNS TO MID 50S VALLEYS ON
TUES...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECT ON TUES NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S MTNS TO
MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS. BY WEDS WEAKENING SFC COLD FRNT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. IN
ADDITION..WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT IS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY...SO
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LOW LIKELY POPS ACRS NORTHERN NY AND CHC
POPS ACRS THE CPV AND VT. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS FALLING APART AND
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <.10".
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE 0C ON TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS...WITH
1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES ABOVE 550DM...SO EXPECT ALL
RAIN...EVEN ABOVE 4000 FT. WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND 1ST
BOUNDARY ON WEDS AFTN INTO THURS WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALLING
BLW 0C AGAIN...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.

NEXT POTENT 5H VORT WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURS...ALONG WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR. THIS POCKET OF
ENERGY...COMBINED WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE PROFILES...WL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME MIX RAIN/SNOW ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. THIS WL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH
LIMITED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTION...SO QPF/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT. ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR WL
FOLLOW ON THURS INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP
OCCURS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS VERY CHANGEABLE PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS WITH FEATURE RAPID WARM UPS AND COOL
DOWNS...WITH OVERALL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NEAR NORMAL CHCS FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IR SATL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACRS OUR TAF
SITES TONIGHT...WITH CIGS BTWN 3000 FEET AND 5000 FEET AGL. COULD
SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT BTV...OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR REGION
ON FRIDAY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE AND CHCS FOR
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE MENTION VCSH AFT 03Z AT
SLK/MSS...AND REDUCED CIGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...WL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY AT 3 TO 7 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT WL INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS/VIS
POSSIBLE AT SLK...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
BY MONDAY. ALSO...BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SFC GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE KCXX 88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
COLCHESTER VERMONT IS OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIANS HAVE CHECKED THE RADAR AND FOUND A PROBLEM WITH HIGH
VOLTAGE ARCING. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS WILL BE AT THE RADAR SITE
LATER THIS MORNING TO TRY AND FIX THIS PROBLEM. NO ESTIMATE IS
AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO THE WHEN THE RADAR WILL BE RETURNED
TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 310825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT...THE SKY WAS GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS OUR
REGION. A PATCH OF STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUED TO PERSIST IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 40S THERE.
CLOUDS WERE MORE EXTENSIVE IN VERMONT AS WELL HOLDING TEMPERATURES
UP CLOSER TO 40 AS WELL. MEANWHILE IT WAS GENERALLY IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH MANY OUTLYING AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS 35-40 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...LOWER 30S OR UPPER
20S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV













000
FXUS61 KBTV 310815
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
415 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH
LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 147 AM EDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WX PATTERN
ANTICIPATED ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY LATE MONDAY...WITH BUILDING HGHTS FOR
MIDWEEK...BEFORE NEXT TROF DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST ENSEMBLE
DATA ON SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF SFC FEATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S
AND 30S...WITH COLDEST READING ACRS THE NEK OF VT. BY MONDAY...SFC
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW AND LLVL WAA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN -1C NEK
TO +1C SLV BY 00Z TUES...DEEP DRY LAYER ACRS OUR CWA. THESE TEMPS
WL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S ON MONDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TUES/WEDS...LLVL WAA CONTS INTO TUES WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARMING ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DEGREES WITH VALUES BTWN 3C AND 5C BY 00Z
WEDS...UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS. THESE WARM TEMPS WL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U40S MTNS TO MID 50S VALLEYS ON
TUES...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECT ON TUES NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S MTNS TO
MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS. BY WEDS WEAKENING SFC COLD FRNT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. IN
ADDITION..WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT IS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY...SO
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LOW LIKELY POPS ACRS NORTHERN NY AND CHC
POPS ACRS THE CPV AND VT. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS FALLING APART AND
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <.10".
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE 0C ON TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS...WITH
1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES ABOVE 550DM...SO EXPECT ALL
RAIN...EVEN ABOVE 4000 FT. WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND 1ST
BOUNDARY ON WEDS AFTN INTO THURS WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALLING
BLW 0C AGAIN...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.

NEXT POTENT 5H VORT WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURS...ALONG WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR. THIS POCKET OF
ENERGY...COMBINED WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE PROFILES...WL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME MIX RAIN/SNOW ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. THIS WL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH
LIMITED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTION...SO QPF/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT. ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR WL
FOLLOW ON THURS INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP
OCCURS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS VERY CHANGEABLE PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS WITH FEATURE RAPID WARM UPS AND COOL
DOWNS...WITH OVERALL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NEAR NORMAL CHCS FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IR SATL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACRS OUR TAF
SITES TONIGHT...WITH CIGS BTWN 3000 FEET AND 5000 FEET AGL. COULD
SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT BTV...OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR REGION
ON FRIDAY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE AND CHCS FOR
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE MENTION VCSH AFT 03Z AT
SLK/MSS...AND REDUCED CIGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...WL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY AT 3 TO 7 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT WL INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS/VIS
POSSIBLE AT SLK...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
BY MONDAY. ALSO...BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SFC GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KALY 310743
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT...THE SKY WAS GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS OUR
REGION. A PATCH OF STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUED TO PERSIST IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 40S THERE.
CLOUDS WERE MORE EXTENSIVE IN VERMONT AS WELL HOLDING TEMPERATURES
UP CLOSER TO 40 AS WELL. MEANWHILE IT WAS GENERALLY IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH MANY OUTLYING AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS 35-40 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...LOWER 30S OR UPPER
20S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMING SOON.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 310549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TEMPERATURES WERE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND IN SOME
CASES SOME LOCAL TERRAIN INDUCED BREEZES. WE DECIDED NOT TO TINKER
WITH ANY LOWS AS EVEN DOWN AT POUGHKEEPSIE...WHERE IT WAS STILL IN
THE MID 40S...MONTOGMERY AND PHILMONT WERE ONLY 35!

IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE 30S...LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...











000
FXUS61 KBTV 310547
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
147 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH
LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 147 AM EDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS
DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER
WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD,
BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE
PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED.
DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW...

SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND
KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT
0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE
OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO
BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS,
DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL.
NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY,
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS
30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F.

SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE (DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR
BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH
QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO
IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS)

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD
TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A
FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS
FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IR SATL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACRS OUR TAF
SITES TONIGHT...WITH CIGS BTWN 3000 FEET AND 5000 FEET AGL. COULD
SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT BTV...OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR REGION
ON FRIDAY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE AND CHCS FOR
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE MENTION VCSH AFT 03Z AT
SLK/MSS...AND REDUCED CIGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...WL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY AT 3 TO 7 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT WL INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS/VIS
POSSIBLE AT SLK...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
BY MONDAY. ALSO...BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SFC GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310541
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1009 PM EDT THURSDAY...TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID-30S TO THE
MID- 40S LATE THIS EVENING AS EFFECTS OF OVERCAST SKIES MINIMIZING
RADIATIVE COOLING. THE OVERCAST WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST DESPITE
BUILDING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
FILTER IN ON WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ANY COOLING THAT
TAKES PLACE WILL REMAIN SLOW. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS
PRETTY WELL WITH ONLY MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS WITH THIS
UPDATE. LOWS IN THE 30S IN MANY LOCALES...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ADJACENT TO THE SHORE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS
DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER
WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD,
BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE
PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED.
DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW...

SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND
KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT
0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE
OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO
BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS,
DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL.
NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY,
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS
30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F.

SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE (DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR
BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH
QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO
IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS)

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD
TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A
FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS
FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IR SATL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACRS OUR TAF
SITES TONIGHT...WITH CIGS BTWN 3000 FEET AND 5000 FEET AGL. COULD
SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT BTV...OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR REGION
ON FRIDAY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE AND CHCS FOR
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE MENTION VCSH AFT 03Z AT
SLK/MSS...AND REDUCED CIGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...WL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY AT 3 TO 7 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT WL INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS/VIS
POSSIBLE AT SLK...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
BY MONDAY. ALSO...BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SFC GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KALY 310431
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TEMPERATURES WERE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND IN SOME
CASES SOME LOCAL TERRAIN INDUCED BREEZES. WE DECIDED NOT TO TINKER
WITH ANY LOWS AS EVEN DOWN AT POUGHKEEPSIE...WHERE IT WAS STILL IN
THE MID 40S...MONTOGMERY AND PHILMONT WERE ONLY 35!

IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE 30S...LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE SCT-BKN
FROM 4-6 KFT THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL TURN OVC DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS MAINLY ARND 10 KFT.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 10 THIS EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN NE-SE AT 4-5 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBTV 310209
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1009 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1009 PM EDT THURSDAY...TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID-30S TO THE
MID- 40S LATE THIS EVENING AS EFFECTS OF OVERCAST SKIES MINIMIZING
RADIATIVE COOLING. THE OVERCAST WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST DESPITE
BUILDING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
FILTER IN ON WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ANY COOLING THAT
TAKES PLACE WILL REMAIN SLOW. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS
PRETTY WELL WITH ONLY MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS WITH THIS
UPDATE. LOWS IN THE 30S IN MANY LOCALES...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ADJACENT TO THE SHORE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS
DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER
WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD,
BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE
PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED.
DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW...

SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND
KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT
0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE
OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO
BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS,
DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL.
NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY,
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS
30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F.

SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE (DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR
BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH
QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO
IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS)

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD
TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A
FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS
FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AFTER 20Z WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE NO OBSTRUCTION TO VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SAT-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT 12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH




000
FXUS61 KALY 310122
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 920 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE SCT-BKN
FROM 4-6 KFT THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL TURN OVC DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS MAINLY ARND 10 KFT.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 10 THIS EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN NE-SE AT 4-5 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBTV 302321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT THURSDAY...INHERITED FORECAST GENERALLY HOLDING
UP WELL EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS NECESSARY WITH THIS UPDATE.

INFRARED SATELLITE REVEALS PERSISTENT STRATUS/STRATOCU
PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY OF THE MOUNTAINS. WITH BRIEF
EXCEPTIONS...THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG TOUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN
COMBINATION OF BLOCKED/SUBCRITICAL FLOW EVIDENT IN PROGGED FROUDE
NUMBERS AMD WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT LAKES
IN MEAN 925-700 MB WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...OPTED TO
RAISE HOURLY TEMPS UP A BIT AND LOWS UP 2-5 DEGREES WITH EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER. DEWPOINTS ALSO LOOKED A BIT TOO DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND ADJUSTED THESE UPWARD BY A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL. EXPECTING
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS COULD
SEE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM/`DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS
DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER
WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD,
BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE
PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED.
DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW...

SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND
KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT
0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE
OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO
BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS,
DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL.
NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY,
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS
30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F.

SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE (DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR
BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH
QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO
IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS)

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD
TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A
FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS
FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AFTER 20Z WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE NO OBSTRUCTION TO VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SAT-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT 12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH




000
FXUS61 KALY 302313
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
713 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS COVERING THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE SCT-BKN
FROM 4-6 KFT THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL TURN OVC DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS MAINLY ARND 10 KFT.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 10 THIS EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN NE-SE AT 4-5 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBTV 302300
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
700 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL DEALING WITH
PREVAILING STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS FROM NAM/RAP SOUNDING PROFILES
THAT CLOUD LAYER WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A FEW
BREAKS. TRENDED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S...AND A FEW LOWER 30S
ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. IF A FEW
ADDITIONAL BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME LOCALIZED
READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF TO 5 MPH OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS
DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER
WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD,
BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE
PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED.
DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW...

SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND
KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT
0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE
OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO
BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS,
DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL.
NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY,
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS
30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F.

SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE (DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR
BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH
QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO
IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS)

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD
TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A
FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS
FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AFTER 20Z WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE NO OBSTRUCTION TO VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SAT-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT 12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH




000
FXUS61 KALY 302201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS COVERING THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KALY 302201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS COVERING THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBTV 301951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL DEALING WITH
PREVAILING STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS FROM NAM/RAP SOUNDING PROFILES
THAT CLOUD LAYER WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A FEW
BREAKS. TRENDED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S...AND A FEW LOWER 30S
ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. IF A FEW
ADDITIONAL BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME LOCALIZED
READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF TO 5 MPH OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS
DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER
WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD,
BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE
PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED.
DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW...

SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND
KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT
0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE
OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO
BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS,
DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL.
NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY,
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS
30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F.

SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE (DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR
BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH
QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO
IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS)

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD
TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A
FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS
FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY A GOOD DEAL OF STRATO-CUMULUS
ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY VFR -- EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WORKS OUT TO BE MVFR. WITH
CLOUD BASES RUNNING ABOUT 4000FT MSL, THAT MEANS SUMMITS ARE
OBSCURED IN THE CLOUDS. NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE AREAS WHERE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT -- THIS IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR SLK. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, AT LEAST NOTHING THAT
WOULD IMPACT VISIBILITIES. JUST TO NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT MASSENA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT WILL KEEP THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THINKING ENOUGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND TO MINIMIZE THE FOG FORMATION PROCESSES. HOWEVER
STRANGE THINGS CAN HAPPEN OUT IN MASSENA...

ON FRIDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN VFR. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WE APPROACH 18Z FRIDAY, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KALY 301933
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
333 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF UPSTATE NEW YORK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW HAS RESULTED IN
SOME CLEARING. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH AT
LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
IN MOST AREAS.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 301922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH PREVAILING NW FLOW (AROUND 10 MPH).
THIN LAYER OF STRATOCU AND STRATUS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...AND WILL
LIKELY HOLD IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS VCNTY
OF SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX NY COUNTY INTO RUTLAND COUNTY...BUT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WHERE SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
GENERALLY UPPER 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS
DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER
WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD,
BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE
PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED.
DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW...

SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND
KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT
0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE
OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO
BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS,
DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL.
NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY,
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS
30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F.

SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE (DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR
BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH
QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO
IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS)

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD
TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A
FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS
FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY A GOOD DEAL OF STRATO-CUMULUS
ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY VFR -- EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WORKS OUT TO BE MVFR. WITH
CLOUD BASES RUNNING ABOUT 4000FT MSL, THAT MEANS SUMMITS ARE
OBSCURED IN THE CLOUDS. NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE AREAS WHERE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT -- THIS IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR SLK. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, AT LEAST NOTHING THAT
WOULD IMPACT VISIBILITIES. JUST TO NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT MASSENA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT WILL KEEP THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THINKING ENOUGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND TO MINIMIZE THE FOG FORMATION PROCESSES. HOWEVER
STRANGE THINGS CAN HAPPEN OUT IN MASSENA...

ON FRIDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN VFR. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WE APPROACH 18Z FRIDAY, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KALY 301748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KALY 301748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBTV 301744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH PREVAILING NW FLOW (AROUND 10 MPH).
THIN LAYER OF STRATOCU AND STRATUS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...AND WILL
LIKELY HOLD IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS VCNTY
OF SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX NY COUNTY INTO RUTLAND COUNTY...BUT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WHERE SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
GENERALLY UPPER 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY A GOOD DEAL OF STRATO-CUMULUS
ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY VFR -- EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WORKS OUT TO BE MVFR. WITH
CLOUD BASES RUNNING ABOUT 4000FT MSL, THAT MEANS SUMMITS ARE
OBSCURED IN THE CLOUDS. NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE AREAS WHERE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT -- THIS IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR SLK. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, AT LEAST NOTHING THAT
WOULD IMPACT VISIBILITIES. JUST TO NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT MASSENA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT WILL KEEP THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THINKING ENOUGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND TO MINIMIZE THE FOG FORMATION PROCESSES. HOWEVER
STRANGE THINGS CAN HAPPEN OUT IN MASSENA...

ON FRIDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN VFR. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WE APPROACH 18Z FRIDAY, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH PREVAILING NW FLOW (AROUND 10 MPH).
THIN LAYER OF STRATOCU AND STRATUS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...AND WILL
LIKELY HOLD IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS VCNTY
OF SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX NY COUNTY INTO RUTLAND COUNTY...BUT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WHERE SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
GENERALLY UPPER 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY A GOOD DEAL OF STRATO-CUMULUS
ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY VFR -- EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WORKS OUT TO BE MVFR. WITH
CLOUD BASES RUNNING ABOUT 4000FT MSL, THAT MEANS SUMMITS ARE
OBSCURED IN THE CLOUDS. NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE AREAS WHERE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT -- THIS IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR SLK. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, AT LEAST NOTHING THAT
WOULD IMPACT VISIBILITIES. JUST TO NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT MASSENA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT WILL KEEP THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THINKING ENOUGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND TO MINIMIZE THE FOG FORMATION PROCESSES. HOWEVER
STRANGE THINGS CAN HAPPEN OUT IN MASSENA...

ON FRIDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN VFR. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WE APPROACH 18Z FRIDAY, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT THURSDAY...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING AS WV/IR SATELLITE INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE SUPPORTED A FEW POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TODAY BEFORE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN LATER TONIGHT. AS FAR AS THE TEMPS AND WX
FORECAST, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS ON TRACK AND SO THE ONLY
TWEAKS WERE TO REFRESH THE 11AM THROUGH 1PM FORECAST BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SOME RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE
FORECASTS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY A GOOD DEAL OF STRATO-CUMULUS
ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY VFR -- EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WORKS OUT TO BE MVFR. WITH
CLOUD BASES RUNNING ABOUT 4000FT MSL, THAT MEANS SUMMITS ARE
OBSCURED IN THE CLOUDS. NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE AREAS WHERE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT -- THIS IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR SLK. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, AT LEAST NOTHING THAT
WOULD IMPACT VISIBILITIES. JUST TO NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT MASSENA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT WILL KEEP THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THINKING ENOUGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND TO MINIMIZE THE FOG FORMATION PROCESSES. HOWEVER
STRANGE THINGS CAN HAPPEN OUT IN MASSENA...

ON FRIDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN VFR. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WE APPROACH 18Z FRIDAY, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT THURSDAY...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING AS WV/IR SATELLITE INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE SUPPORTED A FEW POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TODAY BEFORE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN LATER TONIGHT. AS FAR AS THE TEMPS AND WX
FORECAST, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS ON TRACK AND SO THE ONLY
TWEAKS WERE TO REFRESH THE 11AM THROUGH 1PM FORECAST BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SOME RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE
FORECASTS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY A GOOD DEAL OF STRATO-CUMULUS
ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY VFR -- EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WORKS OUT TO BE MVFR. WITH
CLOUD BASES RUNNING ABOUT 4000FT MSL, THAT MEANS SUMMITS ARE
OBSCURED IN THE CLOUDS. NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE AREAS WHERE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT -- THIS IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR SLK. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, AT LEAST NOTHING THAT
WOULD IMPACT VISIBILITIES. JUST TO NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT MASSENA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT WILL KEEP THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THINKING ENOUGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND TO MINIMIZE THE FOG FORMATION PROCESSES. HOWEVER
STRANGE THINGS CAN HAPPEN OUT IN MASSENA...

ON FRIDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN VFR. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WE APPROACH 18Z FRIDAY, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KALY 301705
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
105 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KALY 301705
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
105 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KALY 301452
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1052 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBTV 301441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT THURSDAY...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING AS WV/IR SATELLITE INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE SUPPORTED A FEW POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TODAY BEFORE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN LATER TONIGHT. AS FAR AS THE TEMPS AND WX
FORECAST, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS ON TRACK AND SO THE ONLY
TWEAKS WERE TO REFRESH THE 11AM THROUGH 1PM FORECAST BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SOME RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE
FORECASTS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED
MID LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES
ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT IFR CIGS AT
SLK. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT IFR CIGS AT SLK THRU 14Z...BEFORE
LIFTING TO MVFR THEN VFR BY THIS AFTN. ELSEWHERE...COULD SEE MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP AT MPV THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLW BEHIND SFC
BOUNDARY. REST OF TAF SITES WL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS
HGHTS BTWN 4000 AND 6000 FEET. LOOK FOR NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS TODAY...BECOME LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN TONIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND
MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF-
SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301138
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
738 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH
CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SEE BREAKS IN THIS CLOUDY COVER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...SO COULD SEE SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TODAY. CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
MILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SO WILL SEE SOME MILD
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY...BUT NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED
MID LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES
ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT IFR CIGS AT
SLK. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT IFR CIGS AT SLK THRU 14Z...BEFORE
LIFTING TO MVFR THEN VFR BY THIS AFTN. ELSEWHERE...COULD SEE MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP AT MPV THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLW BEHIND SFC
BOUNDARY. REST OF TAF SITES WL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS
HGHTS BTWN 4000 AND 6000 FEET. LOOK FOR NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS TODAY...BECOME LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN TONIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND
MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF-
SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KALY 301113
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
713 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 301042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE VLIFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY.  THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL 10-12Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO IFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-
14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GJM/FRUGIS














000
FXUS61 KALY 301042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE VLIFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY.  THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL 10-12Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO IFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-
14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GJM/FRUGIS














000
FXUS61 KBTV 301000
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH
CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SEE BREAKS IN THIS CLOUDY COVER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...SO COULD SEE SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TODAY. CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
MILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SO WILL SEE SOME MILD
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY...BUT NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECICP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED MID
LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR TAF SITES ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES
SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT
MPV/RUT/PBG/BTV WITH MVFR CIGS AT SLK/MSS. SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT SLK AFT 08Z
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL CAA...UPSLOPE FLW...AND SOME LAKE
MOISTURE INTERACTION. HAVE MENTION PREVAILING GROUP FOR IFR CIGS
AT SLK BTWN 0830 AND 12 UTC THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL
DEVELOP AT MPV AND PERSIST THRU 12Z...WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BY SUNRISE. WEAK HIGH PRES WITH DEVELOPING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES CAN BE EXPECTED BY 16Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH
SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
AFTN INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS OFF-SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300850
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
450 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. SEE BREAKS IN THIS CLOUDY COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO...SO COULD SEE SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY. CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SO WILL SEE SOME MILD TEMPERATURES AGAIN
TODAY...BUT NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECICP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED MID
LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR TAF SITES ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES
SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT
MPV/RUT/PBG/BTV WITH MVFR CIGS AT SLK/MSS. SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT SLK AFT 08Z
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL CAA...UPSLOPE FLW...AND SOME LAKE
MOISTURE INTERACTION. HAVE MENTION PREVAILING GROUP FOR IFR CIGS
AT SLK BTWN 0830 AND 12 UTC THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL
DEVELOP AT MPV AND PERSIST THRU 12Z...WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BY SUNRISE. WEAK HIGH PRES WITH DEVELOPING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES CAN BE EXPECTED BY 16Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH
SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
AFTN INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS OFF-SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KALY 300841
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST AREAS.
THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE VLIFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY.  THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL 10-12Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO IFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-
14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GJM/FRUGIS











000
FXUS61 KBTV 300804
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
404 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT THURSDAY...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT
MIN TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. HAVE RAISED
MIN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
AS CLOUD COVER HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. HAVE ALSO LOWERED
MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AS SKIES HAVE
BRIEFLY CLEARED ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FORECASTED
LOW. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
CLOUD COVER STARTING TO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME...SO
NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECICP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED MID
LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR TAF SITES ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES
SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT
MPV/RUT/PBG/BTV WITH MVFR CIGS AT SLK/MSS. SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT SLK AFT 08Z
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL CAA...UPSLOPE FLW...AND SOME LAKE
MOISTURE INTERACTION. HAVE MENTION PREVAILING GROUP FOR IFR CIGS
AT SLK BTWN 0830 AND 12 UTC THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL
DEVELOP AT MPV AND PERSIST THRU 12Z...WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BY SUNRISE. WEAK HIGH PRES WITH DEVELOPING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES CAN BE EXPECTED BY 16Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH
SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
AFTN INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS OFF-SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KALY 300559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER
AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM...HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
TEMP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE.
OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE VLIFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY.  THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL 10-12Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO IFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-
14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 300545
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
145 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT THURSDAY...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT
MIN TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. HAVE RAISED
MIN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
AS CLOUD COVER HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. HAVE ALSO LOWERED
MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AS SKIES HAVE
BRIEFLY CLEARED ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FORECASTED
LOW. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
CLOUD COVER STARTING TO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME...SO
NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT
DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES
OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION
WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE
MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW
TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON
SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION.

WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM
THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY,
30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED.
LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED MID
LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR TAF SITES ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES
SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT
MPV/RUT/PBG/BTV WITH MVFR CIGS AT SLK/MSS. SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT SLK AFT 08Z
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL CAA...UPSLOPE FLW...AND SOME LAKE
MOISTURE INTERACTION. HAVE MENTION PREVAILING GROUP FOR IFR CIGS
AT SLK BTWN 0830 AND 12 UTC THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL
DEVELOP AT MPV AND PERSIST THRU 12Z...WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BY SUNRISE. WEAK HIGH PRES WITH DEVELOPING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES CAN BE EXPECTED BY 16Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH
SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
AFTN INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS OFF-SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300539
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
139 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1013 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL IS EXITING EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE WITH SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING BEHIND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP FOR A FEW HOURS BUT
MORE OF A SOLID CLOUD DECK ENTERING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL PUT
A BLANKET TO FALLING TEMPERATURES. COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT
DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES
OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION
WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE
MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW
TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON
SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION.

WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM
THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY,
30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED.
LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED MID
LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR TAF SITES ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES
SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT
MPV/RUT/PBG/BTV WITH MVFR CIGS AT SLK/MSS. SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT SLK AFT 08Z
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL CAA...UPSLOPE FLW...AND SOME LAKE
MOISTURE INTERACTION. HAVE MENTION PREVAILING GROUP FOR IFR CIGS
AT SLK BTWN 0830 AND 12 UTC THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL
DEVELOP AT MPV AND PERSIST THRU 12Z...WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BY SUNRISE. WEAK HIGH PRES WITH DEVELOPING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES CAN BE EXPECTED BY 16Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH
SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
AFTN INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS OFF-SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KALY 300534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER
AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM...HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
TEMP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE.
OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE
THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH 15Z-20Z AFT WHICH SKIES WILL BECOME
SCT035. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FIRST AT KPOU AND LAST AT KPSF.
WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING
TO 5-10 KNOTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...GJM/FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS











000
FXUS61 KBTV 300216
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1016 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1013 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL IS EXITING EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE WITH SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING BEHIND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP FOR A FEW HOURS BUT
MORE OF A SOLID CLOUD DECK ENTERING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL PUT
A BLANKET TO FALLING TEMPERATURES. COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT
DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES
OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION
WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE
MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW
TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON
SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION.

WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM
THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY,
30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED.
LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AND BETWEEN 02Z AND 12Z THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. IN
ADDITION...CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT THIS TIME
BEFORE BECOMING VFR AGAIN AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...BUT THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 08Z
AND 12Z...BUT SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS
AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK.
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON
MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 300125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 923 PM EDT...THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PICKING UP SOME
MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE
THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH 15Z-20Z AFT WHICH SKIES WILL BECOME SCT035.
THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FIRST AT KPOU AND LAST AT KPSF.
WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT
INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 292308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
708 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT..A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT TOOK ON ANAFRONT
CHARACTERISTICS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL REMAINS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL END. ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE
THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH 15Z-20Z AFT WHICH SKIES WILL BECOME SCT035.
THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FIRST AT KPOU AND LAST AT KPSF.
WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT
INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 292259
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
659 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RADAR TREND CONTINUE WITH RAINFALL
EAST OF CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. THERE WERE/ARE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY BUT SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS SOLID DECK MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AND
PROGRESSING. BASICALLY...NO CHANGES TO ON-GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330PM FOLLOWS: MID AFTERNOON UPDATE
STILL GOING ON TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
STILL FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS THE FRONT EVER SO
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THE FRONT IS BEST SEEN BY A DEW POINT DROP
(UPPER 40S/LOW 50S TO THE UPPER 30S) ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST AND WEST.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR, SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 130PM FOLLOWS:

THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN
FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY
REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE
ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T
VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL
HI-RES MODELS.

THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT
DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES
OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION
WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE
MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW
TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON
SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION.

WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM
THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY,
30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED.
LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AND BETWEEN 02Z AND 12Z THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. IN
ADDITION...CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT THIS TIME
BEFORE BECOMING VFR AGAIN AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...BUT THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 08Z
AND 12Z...BUT SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS
AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK.
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON
MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 292253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
653 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RADAR TREND CONTINUE WITH RAINFALL
EAST OF CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. THERE WERE/ARE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY BUT SATELLITE
IMGERY ALREADY SHOWS SOLID DECK MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AND
PROGRESSING. BASICALLY...NO CHANGES TO ON-GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330PM FOLLOWS: MID AFTERNOON UPDATE
STILL GOING ON TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
STILL FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS THE FRONT EVER SO
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THE FRONT IS BEST SEEN BY A DEWPOINT DROP
(UPPER 40S/LOW 50S TO THE UPPER 30S) ALONG WITH A WINDSHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST AND WEST.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR, SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 130PM FOLLOWS:

THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN
FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY
REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE
ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T
VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL
HI-RES MODELS.

THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT
DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES
OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION
WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE
MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW
TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON
SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION.

WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM
THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY,
30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED.
LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK.
A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT
LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROF TOMORROW.

SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY
KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI
CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA
WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS
AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 292253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
653 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RADAR TREND CONTINUE WITH RAINFALL
EAST OF CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. THERE WERE/ARE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY BUT SATELLITE
IMGERY ALREADY SHOWS SOLID DECK MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AND
PROGRESSING. BASICALLY...NO CHANGES TO ON-GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330PM FOLLOWS: MID AFTERNOON UPDATE
STILL GOING ON TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
STILL FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS THE FRONT EVER SO
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THE FRONT IS BEST SEEN BY A DEWPOINT DROP
(UPPER 40S/LOW 50S TO THE UPPER 30S) ALONG WITH A WINDSHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST AND WEST.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR, SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 130PM FOLLOWS:

THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN
FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY
REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE
ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T
VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL
HI-RES MODELS.

THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT
DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES
OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION
WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE
MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW
TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON
SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION.

WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM
THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY,
30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED.
LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK.
A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT
LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROF TOMORROW.

SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY
KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI
CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA
WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS
AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 292228
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
628 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT..A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT TOOK ON ANAFRONT
CHARACTERISTICS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL REMAINS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL END. ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22/23Z BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KPSF
FROM 18-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT BECOME WESTERLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
AT KPOU WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 292011
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
411 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT..A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED JUST EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT HAS TAKEN ON
ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL
REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION AND CATSKILLS ON EASTWARD. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
END BY EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEW
YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22/23Z BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KPSF
FROM 18-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT BECOME WESTERLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
AT KPOU WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 292010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT..A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED JUST EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT HAS TAKEN ON
ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL
REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION AND CATSKILLS ON EASTWARD. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
END BY EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEW
YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22/23Z BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KPSF
FROM 18-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT BECOME WESTERLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
AT KPOU WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 292003
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MID AFTERNOON UPDATE STILL GOING ON
TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL FALLING
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS THE FRONT EVER SO SLOWLY PUSHES
EAST. THE FRONT IS BEST SEEN BY A DEWPOINT DROP (UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
TO THE UPPER 30S) ALONG WITH A WINDSHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR, SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 130PM FOLLOWS:

THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN
FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY
REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE
ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T
VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL
HI-RES MODELS.

THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT
DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES
OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION
WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE
MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW
TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON
SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION.

WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM
THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY,
30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED.
LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK.
A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT
LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROF TOMORROW.

SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY
KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI
CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA
WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS
AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 292001
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MID AFTERNOON UPDATE STILL GOING ON
TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL FALLING
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS THE FRONT EVER SO SLOWLY PUSHES
EAST. THE FRONT IS BEST SEEN BY A DEWPOINT DROP (UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
TO THE UPPER 30S) ALONG WITH A WINDSHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR, SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 130PM FOLLOWS:

THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN
FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY
REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE
ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T
VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL
HI-RES MODELS.

THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS
ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W
DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY
SAMPLED BY UA DATA.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW
NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT
EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC
LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS
OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS
SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
-8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID
50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO
MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE
HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A
DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT.

ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING
SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER
POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON
SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS
SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S
VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE
CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE
CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT
WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S
TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK.
A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT
LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROF TOMORROW.

SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY
KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI
CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA
WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS
AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/DEAL
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
212 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 133 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE
ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT
WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL
EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO
CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH
THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE
POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE
END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD
END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL
DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL HI-RES MODELS.

THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 436 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS
ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W
DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY
SAMPLED BY UA DATA.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW
NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT
EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC
LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS
OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS
SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
-8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID
50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO
MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE
HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A
DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT.

ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING
SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER
POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON
SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS
SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S
VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE
CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE
CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT
WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S
TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK.
A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT
LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROF TOMORROW.

SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY
KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI
CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA
WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS
AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291755
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
155 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 133 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE
ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT
WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL
EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO
CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH
THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE
POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE
END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD
END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL
DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL HI-RES MODELS.

THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 436 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS
ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W
DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY
SAMPLED BY UA DATA.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW
NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT
EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC
LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS
OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS
SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
-8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID
50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO
MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE
HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A
DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT.

ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING
SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER
POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON
SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS
SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S
VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE
CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE
CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT
WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S
TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON
OF MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM
MPV TO RUT THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR TAF SITES
BY 14Z. OTHERWISE...OBS AT PBG/SLK THIS MORNING HAVE INDICATED
SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AS WINDS INCREASE. EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY WITH
SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BTWN 15-21Z TODAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING
AS SFC HEATING OCCURS AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR
CONDITION. MOISTURE INCREASES THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT SLK AFT 03Z...AS LAKE MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THRU FRIDAY AFTN. CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES. SCATTERED RAIN WITH MTN
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE
VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS/MIXED WITH SNOW ON SAT NIGHT. MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KALY 291733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 133 PM EDT...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE AREA IS NOW BEHIND THE SFC COLD
FRONT...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE SFC
BOUNDARY...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND END BY THE
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOUDY
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WAY BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN
NY/WESTERN PA.

TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR MAX VALUES IN MOST LOCATIONS DUE
TO THE BOUNDARY ALREADY CROSSING...AND TEMPS LOOK TO HOLD STEADY
AND THEN SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AS WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION BECOMES UNDERWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 30 TO 40 AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD GET SOME MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AND HAVE FORECAST 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS THERE.
ELSEWHERE...DRY TO 30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS
THE GENERAL MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO BE
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT...AND MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE...DIGGING...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SW FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
FROM THE NORTH MAY CHANGE THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME.  IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
U30S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS.  SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC GUIDANCE...THE H500 CUTOFF MOVE NORTHEAST
OF ERN NC WITH A SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN... AS
THE OCEANIC STORM DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TOO FAR FOR A MAJOR IMPACT IN
THE ALY FCST AREA.  IT WILL BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR
SETS UP OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE IMPRESSIVE OCEAN
CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE STREAMS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -5C TO -10C BY  DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND...COLD...BLUSTERY...AND DRY WX IS THE TREND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS.  WIDESPREAD 30S ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH SOME U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL READINGS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  HIGHS ON
TUESDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S TO
AROUND 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22/23Z BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KPSF
FROM 18-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT BECOME WESTERLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
AT KPOU WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AND THEN EXIT THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

THE RH VALUES WILL 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO 80
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE
SHOWERS TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KBTV 291438
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...IN GENERAL THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE ON TRACK. LOOKING AT RADAR TRENDS THERE IS ONE LAST "BLOB"
OF RAIN JUST GETTING INTO THE ALBANY NY AREA THAT SHOULD BE
SCOOTING THROUGH SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL VERMONT THROUGH ABOUT 2PM.
HRRR MODEL SEEMED TO HAVE PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON IT, SO I TWEAKED
THE POP GRIDS TO FOLLOW THAT MODEL A LITTLE MORE. NET RESULT IS AN
INCREASE OF POPS TO 55-65% IN THAT REGION.

OTHERWISE THE QUESTION IS ALL ABOUT WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT.
THE ANSWER TO THAT IS DON`T BE LOOKING FOR MUCH TO HAPPEN.
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS OUT IN ONTARIO AND SOME OF THIS MAY
GET INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
A GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. HAVING A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW WICH WILL ADVECT IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OFF OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS.

AT THIS POINT, TEMPERATURE FORECASTS APPEAR ON TRACK. NOT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE MUCH GIVEN THE CLOUDS, BUT 50S TO ABOUT 60F
(A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) SEEM REASONABLE.

LASTLY, STILL ANTICIPATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GET A LITTLE GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 436 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS
ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W
DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY
SAMPLED BY UA DATA.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW
NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT
EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC
LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS
OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS
SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
-8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID
50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO
MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE
HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A
DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT.

ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING
SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER
POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON
SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS
SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S
VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE
CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE
CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT
WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S
TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON
OF MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM
MPV TO RUT THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR TAF SITES
BY 14Z. OTHERWISE...OBS AT PBG/SLK THIS MORNING HAVE INDICATED
SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AS WINDS INCREASE. EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY WITH
SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BTWN 15-21Z TODAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING
AS SFC HEATING OCCURS AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR
CONDITION. MOISTURE INCREASES THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT SLK AFT 03Z...AS LAKE MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THRU FRIDAY AFTN. CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES. SCATTERED RAIN WITH MTN
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE
VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS/MIXED WITH SNOW ON SAT NIGHT. MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KALY 291357
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
957 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BAND OF SHOWERS STILL GRADUALLY BUILDING EAST...BUT CLOUDY SKY
WELL BEHIND THE SHOWERS. COLD ADVECTION SHOUDL SPREAD EAST THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT BEFORE THAT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ANOTHER
COUPLE OF DEGREES...WELL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND A
LITTLE COOLER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 30 TO 40 AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD GET SOME MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AND HAVE FORECAST 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS THERE.
ELSEWHERE...DRY TO 30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS
THE GENERAL MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO BE
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT...AND MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE...DIGGING...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SW FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
FROM THE NORTH MAY CHANGE THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME.  IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
U30S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS.  SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC GUIDANCE...THE H500 CUTOFF MOVE NORTHEAST
OF ERN NC WITH A SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN... AS
THE OCEANIC STORM DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TOO FAR FOR A MAJOR IMPACT IN
THE ALY FCST AREA.  IT WILL BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR
SETS UP OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE IMPRESSIVE OCEAN
CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE STREAMS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -5C TO -10C BY  DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND...COLD...BLUSTERY...AND DRY WX IS THE TREND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS.  WIDESPREAD 30S ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH SOME U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL READINGS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  HIGHS ON
TUESDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S TO
AROUND 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE MOVED INTO KGFL AND
KALB BTWN PRIOR TO 12Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE AT KPSF BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL 17Z-18Z. A
LONGER SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS IS LIKELY THERE. KPOU
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS 14Z...AND THERE
IS THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS BTWN 16Z-18Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT....KEEPING THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL..KPOU...AND KPSF THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO W AT 5-10 KTS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
AT 10 KTS OR LEES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AND THEN EXIT THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

THE RH VALUES WILL 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO 80
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE
SHOWERS TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








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