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000
FXUS61 KBTV 290234
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1034 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day weekend will continue to see well above normal
temperatures with daytime max temps between 10 to 20 degrees
above normal. Increasing low level moisture will allow for higher
relative humidities and an increasing chance for widespread
showers with scattered thunderstorms possible on Sunday and
Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY EVENING/...
As of 1033 PM EDT Saturday...No significant changes needed to
current forecast, with warm conditions continuing late this
evening (temps mainly in the low-mid 70s at 10pm). With the 2pm
observation in Burlington we reached 90 degrees for the second day
in a row putting us two thirds of a way to a local heat wave.
Expect warm and moderately humid conditions through the overnight
period. Despite some aftn and early evening towering Cu across
the higher terrain, anticyclonic flow aloft with strong mid-level
ridge in place across NY/New England precluding any convective
initiation with lack of large-scale forcing for ascent.

Anticipate some patchy fog/mist across the valleys of northern NY
after midnight tonight, similar to what occurred during the pre-
dawn hrs this morning. Lack of rainfall in recent days will
generally limit areal extent of fog formation. Overnight low
temperatures generally in the low to mid 60s.

For Sunday, mid-level shortwave trough crossing the ern Great
Lakes induces height falls by afternoon across nrn NY/VT, with
better chance for afternoon shower and thunderstorm development as
compared to the previous 2-3 days. There will be a large influx
of precipitable water with values rising to 1.6-1.8". 925mb temps
are elevated again Sunday and the 21-23C 925mb temps will support
max temps tomorrow once again in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Currently the forecast for Burlington reaches heat wave criteria
with a max temps of 90 expected. Should remain dry with partly to
mostly sunny for the morning hours, then will see scattered
shower/tstm development mainly after 17-18Z, with initial
development likely starting across the ern slopes of the
Adirondacks and moving ewd into the Champlain Valley and into wrn
VT, per 18Z NAM4KM. MUCAPE values are expected to reach 1000-2000
J/kg during the peak daytime heating hours. With the chance for
thunderstorm development, slow storm motions, and PWAT values
1.6-1.8", continued to mention the chance for heavy rain in any
thunderstorms that develop. We should be safe with regards to
flash flooding owing to how dry we`ve been in May but locally
heavy downpours and dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be
expected with the scattered convective storms expected Sunday aftn
into early Sunday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 427 PM EDT Saturday...precipitable water values early
Sunday night will be 1.5 to 2 inches. Will mention showers and
thunderstorms for Sunday night, and will include some heavy
rainfall possible with any thunderstorms. Conditions quite dry
across the region in May, so do not expect any flash flood issues
at this time. ECMWF and GFS models now showing frontal system will
move through the region earlier in the day on Monday with showers
mainly Monday morning, as both models showing a mid level dry slot
will move into the region by 18z Monday. Thus, have decreased pops
for Monday afternoon, and will go with a dry forecast for Monday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 427 PM EDT Saturday...Fair and dry weather will be over the
north country from Tuesday through Thursday night, as a ridge of
high pressure at the surface and aloft builds east from the Great
Lakes. ECMWF and GFS models in fairly good agreement with bring a
cold front from the Great Lakes into the region with showers
expected Friday and Friday night. ECMWF and GFS models differ on
forecast for Saturday, with the ECMWF model more progressive than
the GFS and has a mainly dry forecast for Saturday, while the GFS
model has the front stalled across the region on Saturday as it
will be parallel to the upper flow. Thus, forecaster confidence
for the Saturday forecast is low at this time. Have stuck with
super-blend pops for Saturday and will have a chance of showers in
the forecast for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 00z Monday... Generally VFR with overnight IFR/LIFR mist
at SLK and possibly at MPV. Increasing risk for sct SHRA/TSRA
particularly after 16z Sunday.

All-in-all pretty similar to last night with some leftover high
clouds. Areas of mist likely starting at 06z at SLK. Boundary-
layer flow is slightly higher enough at mpv to keep any mist
that may develop there temporary. Winds initially light/terrain
driven becoming calm.

Any mist/light fog burns off early in the morning under strong
sunshine. Additional heating and increasing depth of moisture
should support at least scattered showers/possible storms.
Latest short-term guidance points to a start time around 16z off
the Adirondacks and then advancing eastward. Any thunderstorm
capable of heavy rain and associated brief IFR visibilities.
Maintained VCSH for this period with prevailing VFR conditions.
Winds becoming south/southwest 5-8 kts.

Outlook 00z Monday through Wednesday... Mainly VFR with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Sunday early
evening and Monday time frame. Best chance for a dry day will be
Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record maximum temperatures for Saturday 5/28 and Sunday 5/29 are as
follows:
                           5/28         5/29
BTV - Burlington        92 in 1978    89 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        88 in 1978    87 in 1978
MSS - Massena           89 in 1978    90 in 1978
St Johnsbury            93 in 1978    92 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            77 in 1978    77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Deal
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Deal/Loconto
CLIMATE...BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 282336
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
736 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day weekend will continue to see well above normal
temperatures with daytime max temps between 10 to 20 degrees
above normal. Increasing low level moisture will allow for higher
relative humidities and an increasing chance for widespread
showers with scattered thunderstorms possible on Sunday and
Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 724 PM EDT Saturday...No significant changes needed to
current forecast, with very warm conditions continuing this
evening (temps mainly in the 80s at 7pm). With the 2pm
observation in Burlington we reached 90 degrees for the second day
in a row putting us two thirds of a way to a local heat wave.
Expect warm and moderately humid conditions through the overnight
period. Despite some continued towering Cu across the higher
terrain, anticyclonic flow aloft with strong mid-level ridge in
place across NY/New England precluding any convective initiation
with lack of large-scale forcing for ascent.

Anticipate some patchy fog/mist across the valleys of northern NY
after midnight tonight, similar to what occurred during the pre-
dawn hrs this morning. Lack of rainfall in recent days will
generally limit areal extent of fog formation. Overnight low
temperatures generally in the low to mid 60s.

For Sunday, mid-level shortwave trough crossing the ern Great
Lakes induces height falls by afternoon across nrn NY/VT, with
better chance for afternoon shower and thunderstorm development as
compared to the previous 2-3 days. There will be a large influx
of precipitable water with values rising to 1.6-1.8". 925mb temps
are elevated again Sunday and the 21-23C 925mb temps will support
max temps tomorrow once again in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Currently the forecast for Burlington reaches heat wave criteria
with a max temps of 90 expected. Should remain dry with partly to
mostly sunny for the morning hours, then will see scattered
shower/tstm development mainly after 17-18Z, with initial
development likely starting across the ern slopes of the
Adirondacks and moving ewd into the Champlain Valley and into wrn
VT, per 18Z NAM4KM. MUCAPE values are expected to reach 1000-2000
J/kg during the peak daytime heating hours. With the chance for
thunderstorm development, slow storm motions, and PWAT values
1.6-1.8", continued to mention the chance for heavy rain in any
thunderstorms that develop. We should be safe with regards to
flash flooding owing to how dry we`ve been in May but locally
heavy downpours and dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be
expected with the scattered convective storms expected Sunday aftn
into early Sunday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 427 PM EDT Saturday...precipitable water values early
Sunday night will be 1.5 to 2 inches. Will mention showers and
thunderstorms for Sunday night, and will include some heavy
rainfall possible with any thunderstorms. Conditions quite dry
across the region in May, so do not expect any flash flood issues
at this time. ECMWF and GFS models now showing frontal system will
move through the region earlier in the day on Monday with showers
mainly Monday morning, as both models showing a mid level dry slot
will move into the region by 18z Monday. Thus, have decreased pops
for Monday afternoon, and will go with a dry forecast for Monday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 427 PM EDT Saturday...Fair and dry weather will be over the
north country from Tuesday through Thursday night, as a ridge of
high pressure at the surface and aloft builds east from the Great
Lakes. ECMWF and GFS models in fairly good agreement with bring a
cold front from the Great Lakes into the region with showers
expected Friday and Friday night. ECMWF and GFS models differ on
forecast for Saturday, with the ECMWF model more progressive than
the GFS and has a mainly dry forecast for Saturday, while the GFS
model has the front stalled across the region on Saturday as it
will be parallel to the upper flow. Thus, forecaster confidence
for the Saturday forecast is low at this time. Have stuck with
super-blend pops for Saturday and will have a chance of showers in
the forecast for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 00z Monday... Generally VFR with overnight IFR/LIFR mist
at SLK and possibly at MPV. Increasing risk for sct SHRA/TSRA
particularly after 16z Sunday.

All-in-all pretty similar to last night with some leftover high
clouds. Areas of mist likely starting at 06z at SLK. Boundary-
layer flow is slightly higher enough at mpv to keep any mist
that may develop there temporary. Winds initially light/terrain
driven becoming calm.

Any mist/light fog burns off early in the morning under strong
sunshine. Additional heating and increasing depth of moisture
should support at least scattered showers/possible storms.
Latest short-term guidance points to a start time around 16z off
the Adirondacks and then advancing eastward. Any thunderstorm
capable of heavy rain and associated brief IFR visibilities.
Maintained VCSH for this period with prevailing VFR conditions.
Winds becoming south/southwest 5-8 kts.

Outlook 00z Monday through Wednesday... Mainly VFR with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Sunday early
evening and Monday time frame. Best chance for a dry day will be
Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record maximum temperatures for Saturday 5/28 and Sunday 5/29 are as
follows:
                           5/28         5/29
BTV - Burlington        92 in 1978    89 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        88 in 1978    87 in 1978
MSS - Massena           89 in 1978    90 in 1978
St Johnsbury            93 in 1978    92 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            77 in 1978    77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Deal
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Deal/Loconto
CLIMATE...BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 282322
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
722 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day weekend will continue to see well above normal
temperatures with daytime max temps between 10 to 20 degrees
above normal. Increasing low level moisture will allow for higher
relative humidities and an increasing chance for widespread
showers with scattered thunderstorms possible on Sunday and
Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 344 PM EDT Saturday...
With the 2pm observation in Burlington we reached 90 degrees for
the second day in a row putting us two thirds of a way to a local
heat wave. Expect warm and muggy (relative to normal for the North
Country) conditions through the rest of the afternoon and early
evening. The scattered cumulus field has continued to develop
across both northern New York and Vermont, however the lack of
any significant forcing has prevented any showers from developing
as of this discussion. The lake breeze on the western edge of Lake
Champlain may end up being the trigger for some late afternoon
early evening convection depending on how inland it moves.
Additionally, the western edge of the Champlain Valley has been
considerable cooler with light to moderate onshore flow from the
much colder lake water temps. With the area somewhat unstable
150-200 J/kg of MUCAPE any showers that do develop will have the
potential to cause an isolated lightning strike or two.

As the upper level ridge continues to build this evening expect
another evening with some potential for patchy fog development. The
best chance will be over northern New York where we are still
drying out from the light rain that fell overnight Thursday.
Across Vermont where we`ve gone with consecutive drys days we may
not have enough boundary layer moisture to see widespread fog.

Tomorrow, as mentioned by the midnight crew, becomes quite the
active period. The upper level ridge overnight gives way to an
advancing upper level trough. There will be a large influx of
precipitable water with values rising to 1.6-1.8 by location.
925mb temps are elevated again Sunday and the 21-23C 925mb temps
will support max temps tomorrow once again in the upper 80s to low
90s. Currently the forecast for Burlington reaches heat wave
criteria with a max temps of 90 expected. Unlike today however
there will be a few piece of shortwave energy the ride along the
longwave trough providing the necessary trigger for convection to
occur. So I`ve continue to offer high chance to likely pops for
most of the forecast area. MUCAPE values are expected to exceed
500-1000 J/kg and K-index values also are indicated of
thunderstorm development. With the chance for thunderstorm
development, slow storm motions, and abnormally high pwat, I
continued to mention the chance for heavy rain in any
thunderstorms that develop. We should be safe with regards to
flash flooding due to how dry we`ve been in May but caution should
be taken with any shower producing heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 427 PM EDT Saturday...precipitable water values early
Sunday night will be 1.5 to 2 inches. Will mention showers and
thunderstorms for Sunday night, and will include some heavy
rainfall possible with any thunderstorms. Conditions quite dry
across the region in May, so do not expect any flash flood issues
at this time. ECMWF and GFS models now showing frontal system will
move through the region earlier in the day on Monday with showers
mainly Monday morning, as both models showing a mid level dry slot
will move into the region by 18z Monday. Thus, have decreased pops
for Monday afternoon, and will go with a dry forecast for Monday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 427 PM EDT Saturday...Fair and dry weather will be over the
north country from Tuesday through Thursday night, as a ridge of
high pressure at the surface and aloft builds east from the Great
Lakes. ECMWF and GFS models in fairly good agreement with bring a
cold front from the Great Lakes into the region with showers
expected Friday and Friday night. ECMWF and GFS models differ on
forecast for Saturday, with the ECMWF model more progressive than
the GFS and has a mainly dry forecast for Saturday, while the GFS
model has the front stalled across the region on Saturday as it
will be parallel to the upper flow. Thus, forecaster confidence
for the Saturday forecast is low at this time. Have stuck with
super-blend pops for Saturday and will have a chance of showers in
the forecast for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 00z Monday... Generally VFR with overnight IFR/LIFR mist
at SLK and possibly at MPV. Increasing risk for sct SHRA/TSRA
particularly after 16z Sunday.

All-in-all pretty similar to last night with some leftover high
clouds. Areas of mist likely starting at 06z at SLK. Boundary-
layer flow is slightly higher enough at mpv to keep any mist
that may develop there temporary. Winds initially light/terrain
driven becoming calm.

Any mist/light fog burns off early in the morning under strong
sunshine. Additional heating and increasing depth of moisture
should support at least scattered showers/possible storms.
Latest short-term guidance points to a start time around 16z off
the Adirondacks and then advancing eastward. Any thunderstorm
capable of heavy rain and associated brief IFR visibilities.
Maintained VCSH for this period with prevailing VFR conditions.
Winds becoming south/southwest 5-8 kts.

Outlook 00z Monday through Wednesday... Mainly VFR with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Sunday early
evening and Monday time frame. Best chance for a dry day will be
Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record maximum temperatures for Saturday 5/28 and Sunday 5/29 are as
follows:
                           5/28         5/29
BTV - Burlington        92 in 1978    89 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        88 in 1978    87 in 1978
MSS - Massena           89 in 1978    90 in 1978
St Johnsbury            93 in 1978    92 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            77 in 1978    77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Deal/Loconto
CLIMATE...BTV



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 281731
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
131 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hazy, hot and humid conditions will continue through the Memorial
Day weekend, as an upper level ridge builds across the region.
Mainly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. Sunday and Monday may see the
greatest threat for more widespread showers and storms as multiple
frontal boundaries approach.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Record broken at Poughkeepsie with a temperature of 91 degrees at
107 pm EDT. Records have been tied at Glens Falls with a
temperature of 88 degrees at 109 pm EDT and at Albany with a
tenmperature of 91 degrees at 125 pm. Refer to climate section for
details.

Hot and humid with mostly to partly sunny skies across the area.
Cumulus clouds developed mainly across the higher terrain. Only
some adjustments were made to today`s forecast. Area 12z
soundings show relatively warm aloft and convection this afternoon
and evening should be isolated without an organized low level
focus. A weak cold front to the north slowly sinking south is
quite diffuse, so again, mainly isolated to scattered
thunderstorms and with such high wet bulb zero levels, any hail
would be small if any and any threat for damaging winds is minimal
as well. HRRR developed convection to earlier again today and will
likely have coverage overdone. It does indicate storms are more
likely across the southern portion of the area. As of early this
afternoon isolated convection has developed across western new
york and the eastern 2/3 of PA. Continues to isolated pops across
the forecast area with 3-4 hour period of low chance pops across
the central/southeastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and across
northwestern Connecticut into the southern Berkshires.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The convective activity will die down again this evening with
mainly dry conditions overnight. It will continue to be warm and
muggy with lows only dropping into the 60s tonight.

Sunday and Sunday night look to be the most active period of the
weekend as the chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase
during the day with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon as MLMUCAPES rise to 1500-2500
J/KG. A backdoor cold front will be dropping southwest in the
southern Adirondacks and southern Vermont as a cold front pushes
east from the central Great Lakes late in the day on Sunday and
into western New York and the Saint Lawrence Valley by late Sunday
night. This will keep the threat of showers and thunderstorms
going into Sunday night. Have added enhanced wording for heavy
rainfall as PWATS rise to 1.5 to 2 inches late Sunday and Sunday
night with Atlantic moisture being drawn northward into our region Highs
on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s with lows Sunday
night in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

Monday will also be fairly active as multiple frontal boundaries
are expected to cross the area. Monday morning may be more active
than Monday afternoon as the axis of high PWATS slides east on the
forecast area by Monday afternoon. Still expect fairly widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. MLMUCAPES are generally down to
500 to 1000 J/KG by late in the day on Monday. Highs are expected
to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

On Monday night conditions are expected to improve with any
lingering convection weakening during the evening with dry weather
expected during the second half of the night. Lows Monday night
are expected to be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Much of the long term portion of the forecast should feature dry
conditions...with above normal temperatures for late May/early June.

On Tuesday, have included mention of isolated showers across
portions of the southern Adirondacks and southern VT, as a secondary
cold front and upper level trough move across. Elsewhere...expect
dry conditions at this time.

For Tuesday night through Thursday, high pressure should build
across the region from eastern Canada, before sliding off the New
England coast. Expect generally clear/sunny skies.

For late Thursday into Friday, a frontal system will approach from
the Great Lakes region. The low level pressure gradient may tighten
between the lowering pressures to our west, and the strong high off
the New England coast, allowing for somewhat gusty south/southeast
winds. Moisture advecting northward ahead of the front could bring
clouds and spotty showers for Thursday night, with a better chance
of showers Friday as the front approaches from the west.

Temperatures through this period should remain warmer than normal,
with highs mainly in the mid 70s to lower 80s, except warmer across
the mid Hudson Valley. Overnight low temperatures should be mainly
in the 50s, although some 40s will be possible across portions of
the southern Adirondacks and southern VT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure off the eastern seaboard will keep a warm, humid
southwest flow across the region through Saturday night.

Isolated showers/thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, but
overall areal coverage is expected to be less than Friday, and
should remain confined to higher terrain mainly west and east of the
TAF sites. Have not included any mention of showers/thunderstorms in
TAFs at this time.

For tonight, areas of MVFR due to BR may develop toward and
especially after 06Z/Sunday, particularly at KGFL/KPSF. Some IFR
could occur, especially between 07Z-10Z/Sunday. Conditions improve
to VFR by 13Z Sunday.

Light/variable winds should become southwest to west at 5-10 KT
through this afternoon. Winds should become light/variable once
again this evening and overnight. Winds become south at around 5 kt
Sunday morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hazy, hot and humid conditions will continue through the Memorial
Day weekend, as an upper level ridge builds across the region.
Mainly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. Sunday and Monday may see the
greatest threat for more widespread showers and storms as multiple
frontal boundaries approach.

Relative humidity values are expected to drop to 35 to 55 percent
this afternoon...recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight...and drop
to 50 to 70 percent on Sunday.

Winds are expected to be southwest to west at 5 mph today...light
and variable tonight...and south at 5 to 10 mph on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Forecast precipitation over the next five days is expected to be
highly variable as much of it will come from isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. While widespread hydrologic issues are not
anticipated, localized downpours could lead to ponding of water or
minor flooding of urban, poor drainage, and low lying areas
especially Sunday afternoon into Monday.

Drier weather looks to take hold for the middle of next week, as
high pressure builds in and takes residence across the region.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
With a hot and increasingly humid air mass in place, here is a
look at some record high temperatures.

Albany NY...
May 28th...91 degrees 1911 - Record tied at 125 pm.
May 29th...93 degrees 1931
Daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls NY...
May 28th...88 degrees 1988 - Record tied at 109 pm.
May 29th...88 degrees 2012
Records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie NY...
May 28th...90 degrees 2012 - Record broken with a temperature of
91 degrees at 107 pm.
May 29th...96 degrees 1969
Records date back to 1949, however data is missing from January
1993 through July 2000

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281525
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1125 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day weekend will continue to see warm temperatures
with highs on the order of 10 to 20 degrees above normal. In
addition...higher dew points will lead to more humid conditions
and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will
exist...especially on Sunday and Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
As of 1122 AM EDT Saturday...
The current forecast remains in good shape with temps already
warming into the lower 80s. With the ridge in place and warmer
925mb temps I concur with the previous forecast of upper 80s to a
few spot 90`s across the Saint Lawrence and Champlain valleys.
Hope you get a chance to enjoy the start of Memorial Day weekend.

Previous discussion...North country remains under upper level
ridge today and tonight. Another very warm day is on tap as 925
temps reach to near 20c. Feel that we`ll once again reach 90 here
in the Champlain Valley. Believe we will have some very isolated
convection this afternoon with a focus near a lake breeze off Lake
Champlain...and also in the higher terrain. PWATS will be
increasing over the next couple periods. lows tonight will be will
generally be in the lower 60s across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 333 AM EDT Saturday...Most active period then takes shape
by later Sunday into Sunday night with the approach of a longwave
trough and its interaction with deep tropospheric moisture. The
first half of the day should be more of the same with partly
sunny, warm and modestly humid conditions with widely scattered
terrain-driven showers/isolated storms. A few record high
temperatures may again be threatened (see climate section at
bottom). As mid level heights begin to fall by later in the day
and toward evening expect a broader coverage of showers/storms to
develop and continue into Sunday night as upper trough approaches.
Anomalously high pwats in excess of 1.5 to 2.0 inches combined
with a deep moist-neutral airmass to near 30 kft all spell at
least the potential of locally heavy rainfall across the area,
especially from the Adirondacks eastward where some interaction
with the moisture plume from TD #2 may occur Sunday night. Will
thus introduce this idea along with other surrounding NWS offices
per intra-site coordination this morning. While antecedent dry
conditions should preclude a widespread flood threat, localized
hydrological concerns will be a possibility during this period. As
we progress into Monday the upper trough pulls east with a drier,
more stable airmass filtering into the region over time and
precipitation chances lowering accordingly. In regard to
temperatures I leaned close to blended MOS-based and bias-
corrected data offering highs on Sunday in the 80s to locally near
90F in the Champlain/St Lawrence Valleys, then somewhat cooler
from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday with more tolerable
humidity levels. Overnight lows Sunday night mainly in the 58 to
66 range.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 333 AM EDT Saturday...The period from Monday night onward
through Thursday of next week will be dominated by surface high
pressure with generally fair weather, light winds and tolerable
humidity levels. Temperatures will remain several degrees above
normal, continuing the present trend that`s been established over
the past week or so. Highs should mainly range from the mid 70s to
lower 80s each afternoon with overnight lows generally in the 50s
to around 60.

By late week, a slightly more vigorous northern stream trough and
attendant surface front will make a run into the northeastern third
of the nation. As this feature approaches expect a renewed threat of
showers from Friday into next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 12z Sunday...Generally VFR conditions through the TAF
period...with SCT mid-upper level clouds. light and variable
winds...becoming light NW-N. An isolated shower or t-storm is
possible this afternoon, but limited coverage/probability
precludes any mention in the TAFs at this point. Areas with the
greatest chance for any showers or thunderstorm activity will be
the Adirondacks, southern Champlain Valley into South-Central
Vermont.

Outlook 12z Sunday through Wednesday... Mainly VFR with a daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Sunday and Monday
time frame. Best chance for a dry day will be Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record maximum temperatures for Saturday 5/28 and Sunday 5/29 are as
follows:
                           5/28         5/29
BTV - Burlington        92 in 1978    89 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        88 in 1978    87 in 1978
MSS - Massena           89 in 1978    90 in 1978
St Johnsbury            93 in 1978    92 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            77 in 1978    77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Deal/Neiles
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Neiles
CLIMATE...BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281143
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
743 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day weekend will continue to see warm temperatures
with highs on the order of 10 to 20 degrees above normal. In
addition...higher dew points will lead to more humid conditions
and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will
exist...especially on Sunday and Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 734 AM EDT Saturday...North country remains under upper
level ridge today and tonight. Another very warm day is on tap as
925 temps reach to near 20c. Feel that we`ll once again reach 90
here in the Champlain Valley. Believe we will have some very
isolated convection this afternoon with a focus near a lake breeze
off Lake Champlain...and also in the higher terrain. PWATS will be
increasing over the next couple periods. lows tonight will be will
generally be in the lower 60s across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 333 AM EDT Saturday...Most active period then takes shape
by later Sunday into Sunday night with the approach of a longwave
trough and its interaction with deep tropospheric moisture. The
first half of the day should be more of the same with partly
sunny, warm and modestly humid conditions with widely scattered
terrain-driven showers/isolated storms. A few record high
temperatures may again be threatened (see climate section at
bottom). As mid level heights begin to fall by later in the day
and toward evening expect a broader coverage of showers/storms to
develop and continue into Sunday night as upper trough approaches.
Anomalously high pwats in excess of 1.5 to 2.0 inches combined
with a deep moist-neutral airmass to near 30 kft all spell at
least the potential of locally heavy rainfall across the area,
especially from the Adirondacks eastward where some interaction
with the moisture plume from TD #2 may occur Sunday night. Will
thus introduce this idea along with other surrounding NWS offices
per intra-site coordination this morning. While antecedent dry
conditions should preclude a widespread flood threat, localized
hydrological concerns will be a possibility during this period. As
we progress into Monday the upper trough pulls east with a drier,
more stable airmass filtering into the region over time and
precipitation chances lowering accordingly. In regard to
temperatures I leaned close to blended MOS-based and bias-
corrected data offering highs on Sunday in the 80s to locally near
90F in the Champlain/St Lawrence Valleys, then somewhat cooler
from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday with more tolerable
humidity levels. Overnight lows Sunday night mainly in the 58 to
66 range.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 333 AM EDT Saturday...The period from Monday night onward
through Thursday of next week will be dominated by surface high
pressure with generally fair weather, light winds and tolerable
humidity levels. Temperatures will remain several degrees above
normal, continuing the present trend that`s been established over
the past week or so. Highs should mainly range from the mid 70s to
lower 80s each afternoon with overnight lows generally in the 50s
to around 60.

By late week, a slightly more vigorous northern stream trough and
attendant surface front will make a run into the northeastern third
of the nation. As this feature approaches expect a renewed threat of
showers from Friday into next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 12z Sunday...Generally VFR conditions through the TAF
period...with SCT mid-upper level clouds. light and variable
winds...becoming light NW-N. An isolated shower or t-storm is
possible this afternoon, but limited coverage/probability
precludes any mention in the TAFs at this point. Areas with the
greatest chance for any showers or thunderstorm activity will be
the Adirondacks, southern Champlain Valley into South-Central
Vermont.

Outlook 12z Sunday through Wednesday... Mainly VFR with a daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Sunday and Monday
time frame. Best chance for a dry day will be Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record maximum temperatures for Saturday 5/28 and Sunday 5/29 are as
follows:
                           5/28         5/29
BTV - Burlington        92 in 1978    89 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        88 in 1978    87 in 1978
MSS - Massena           89 in 1978    90 in 1978
St Johnsbury            93 in 1978    92 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            77 in 1978    77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Neiles
CLIMATE...BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280733
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
333 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day weekend will continue to see warm temperatures
with highs on the order of 10 to 20 degrees above normal. In
addition...higher dew points will lead to more humid conditions
and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will
exist...especially on Sunday and Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 135 AM EDT Saturday...no significant changes for 130 am
update.

an isolated thunderstorm developed over northern essex county
vermont with a few cloud to ground lightning strike. this activity
has since moved into northern nh with partly cloudy skies. still
cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm to develop during the
overnight hours...but any areal coverage of convection will be
very small. otherwise...a muggy night is expected with
temperatures dropping back into the upper 50s to upper 60s.

as 500mb ridge builds over the region throughout the weekend.
Warm air continues to filter in with increasing dewpoints. With
plentiful warming, instability will increase on Saturday. While
there is a lack of forcing, diurnal heating may be enough to
trigger a few convective showers and thunderstorms mainly over the
higher terrain of the Adirondacks and South Central Vermont during
the afternoon. Max temperatures expected to be similar to today,
80s to low 90s, but more clouds possible as we see an increase in
moisture with PWATS nearing 1.5 inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 333 AM EDT Saturday...Most active period then takes shape
by later Sunday into Sunday night with the approach of a longwave
trough and its interaction with deep tropospheric moisture. The
first half of the day should be more of the same with partly
sunny, warm and modestly humid conditions with widely scattered
terrain-driven showers/isolated storms. A few record high
temperatures may again be threatened (see climate section at
bottom). As mid level heights begin to fall by later in the day
and toward evening expect a broader coverage of showers/storms to
develop and continue into Sunday night as upper trough approaches.
Anomalously high pwats in excess of 1.5 to 2.0 inches combined
with a deep moist-neutral airmass to near 30 kft all spell at
least the potential of locally heavy rainfall across the area,
especially from the Adirondacks eastward where some interaction
with the moisture plume from TD #2 may occur Sunday night. Will
thus introduce this idea along with other surrounding NWS offices
per intra-site coordination this morning. While antecedent dry
conditions should preclude a widespread flood threat, localized
hydrological concerns will be a possibility during this period. As
we progress into Monday the upper trough pulls east with a drier,
more stable airmass filtering into the region over time and
precipitation chances lowering accordingly. In regard to
temperatures I leaned close to blended MOS-based and bias-
corrected data offering highs on Sunday in the 80s to locally near
90F in the Champlain/St Lawrence Valleys, then somewhat cooler
from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday with more tolerable
humidity levels. Overnight lows Sunday night mainly in the 58 to
66 range.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 333 AM EDT Saturday...The period from Monday night onward
through Thursday of next week will be dominated by surface high
pressure with generally fair weather, light winds and tolerable
humidity levels. Temperatures will remain several degrees above
normal, continuing the present trend that`s been established over
the past week or so. Highs should mainly range from the mid 70s to
lower 80s each afternoon with overnight lows generally in the 50s
to around 60.

By late week, a slightly more vigorous northern stream trough and
attendant surface front will make a run into the northeastern third
of the nation. As this feature approaches expect a renewed threat of
showers from Friday into next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 06z Sunday...Generally VFR conditions through the TAF
period...with SCT mid-upper level clouds overnight. BR has
developed at SLK as some models had indicated. light and variable
winds overnight...and then becoming light NW-N during the daylight
hours Saturday. An isolated shower or t-storm is possible Saturday
afternoon, but limited coverage/probability precludes any mention
in the TAFs at this point. Areas with the greatest chance for any
showers or thunderstorm activity will be the Adirondacks, southern
Champlain Valley into South-Central Vermont.

Outlook 06z Sunday through Wednesday... Mainly VFR with a daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Sunday and Monday
time frame. Best chance for a dry day will be Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record maximum temperatures for Saturday 5/28 and Sunday 5/29 are as
follows:
                           5/28         5/29
BTV - Burlington        92 in 1978    89 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        88 in 1978    87 in 1978
MSS - Massena           89 in 1978    90 in 1978
St Johnsbury            93 in 1978    92 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            77 in 1978    77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson/KGM
NEAR TERM...Neiles/Taber
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Neiles
CLIMATE...BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 280511
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
111 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hazy, hot and humid conditions will continue through the Memorial
Day weekend, as an upper level ridge builds across the region.
Mainly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. Sunday and Monday may see the
greatest threat for more widespread showers and storms as multiple
frontal boundaries approach.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1215 AM EDT...A stationary frontal boundary lay draped
across eastern New England while a weak trough of low pressure was
across central New York. Most of the shower activity has ended
leaving the forecast area with a very mild and muggy night with
some patchy fog/haze possible overnight. Lows will be in the mid
to upper 60s for much of the area.

The upper level ridge axis is forecast to strengthen further,
which will tend to inhibit convection potential. Strong heating
and increasing low level moisture will still result in isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms initiating from late
morning into the afternoon hours. Again will only mention 20-30
pops with limited coverage across the area, with the somewhat
better chances north and south of I-90 and the Capital District,
where terrain may the main factor in generating convection. The
main story Saturday will be very warm temperatures likely
exceeding daily records at climate sites Albany, Poughkeepsie, and
Glens Falls. See climate section below for details. Most valley
locations are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. It
will feel muggy as well, with dewpoints well into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Once again, any convection will dissipate shortly after dark
Saturday evening, as it will be diurnally driven under the
influence of the upper level ridge. It will be another mild night
with temps well above normal.

Similar conditions forecast for Sunday, as the upper level ridge
remains in place. However, there may be somewhat greater coverage
of convection due to the ridge axis eastward into New England by
late in the day. The low level focus for potentially more showers
and storms will be a side-door cold front moving southward along
the New England coast. This boundary is not expected to make
enough southward progress to infiltrate our area, but may provide
enough lift for scattered convection by the afternoon. Temps will
remain quite warm, but maybe a few degrees lower than Saturday due
to greater coverage of clouds/convection. Humid conditions will
persist with dewpoints remaining in the 60s.

Chances for showers and storms will actually continue Sunday
night into early Monday morning, as an open wave upper level
trough will approach from the Great Lakes region, providing some
larger scale ascent with the warm and humid air mass in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A we go into the day on Monday, consensus between the latest 12z
models does show moisture from the southwest Atlantic advecting
northward into the region thanks to a High pressure system
centered northeast of Bermuda. PWAT anomalies in some of the
probabilistic guidance range between 2 to near 3 S.D. Best chances
of precipitation will be during the day on Monday with highest QPF
amounts in our southeastern areas. We will continue to monitor the
latest trends with this tropical moisture and update the forecast
accordingly. With an established southwesterly flow with tropical
moisture moving poleward, high temperatures on Monday will be
slightly above average ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s with
Td ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s, so it will be quite
humid on Monday. We can also not rule out some thunderstorms to
start the extended period on Monday.

Some of the latest guidance has some showers lingering into
Tuesday morning as a cold front makes it way through the region.
Otherwise, tranquil weather is expected to remain throughout most
of the long term forecast period as a high pressure system remains
in control from tuesday into Thursday. High temperatures will
remain above average. As we go into the day on Friday, our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms return into the region with
temperatures near average for early June.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure off the eastern seaboard will keep a warm, humid
southwest flow across the region through Saturday night.

Through Saturday daybreak, areas of MVFR/IFR in BR/FG may
develop, especially at KPOU and KPSF, where some showers occurred
or were nearby Friday afternoon/evening. The chances for BR/FG
will be least at KALB.

After Saturday daybreak, mainly VFR conditions are expected.
Isolated showers/thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, but
overall areal coverage is expected to be less than Friday, and
should remain confined to higher terrain mainly west and east of
the TAF sites. Have not included any mention of
showers/thunderstorms in TAFs at this time.

For Saturday night, areas of MVFR due to BR may develop toward
and especially after 06Z/Sunday, particularly at KGFL/KPSF.

Winds will be mainly light/variable through daybreak, then should
become southwest to west at 5-10 KT later Saturday morning through
Saturday afternoon. Winds should become light/variable once again
Saturday evening.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hazy, hot and humid conditions will continue through the Memorial
Day weekend, as an upper level ridge builds across the region.
Mainly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. Sunday and Monday may see the
greatest threat for more widespread showers and storms as multiple
frontal boundaries approach.

Relative humidity values will increase to between 90 and 100
percent tonight, then drop to minimum values of around 40 to 50
percent Saturday afternoon. RH values will increase to between 85
and 100 percent Saturday night.

Winds tonight will be southerly around 5 mph, becoming southwest
around 5 mph on Saturday. Winds Saturday night will be light and
variable.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Forecast precipitation over the next five days is expected to be
highly variable as much of it will come from isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. While widespread hydrologic issues are not
anticipated, localized downpours could lead to ponding of water or
minor flooding of urban, poor drainage, and low lying areas
especially Sunday and Monday.

Drier weather looks to take hold for the middle of next week, as
high pressure builds in and takes residence across the region.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
With a hot and increasingly humid air mass in place, here is a
look at some record high temperatures.

Albany NY...
May 27th...94 degrees 1914
May 28th...91 degrees 1911
May 29th...93 degrees 1931
Daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls NY...
May 27th...86 degrees 2014 & 1978
May 28th...88 degrees 1988
May 29th...88 degrees 2012
Records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie NY...
May 27th...91 degrees 1965
May 28th...90 degrees 2012
May 29th...96 degrees 1969
Records date back to 1949, however data is missing
from January 1993 through July 2000

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 272329
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
729 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day weekend will continue to see warm temperatures
with highs on the order of 10 to 20 degrees above normal. In
addition...higher dew points will lead to more humid conditions
and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will
exist...especially on Sunday and Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Friday...our first warm and muggy night of the
summer is expected tonight with current temperatures still in the
80s with dewpoints mainly in the 60s...have noted a few upper 60s
to near 70f dewpoints in the saint lawrence valley. this heat and
moisture has created surface based cape values between 1500 and
1800 j/kg across our region...but triggers are very weak. In
addition...rap soundings show deep dry layer between 850 to 500mb
with some warming around 600mb...indicating building hghts/ridge.
given these factors and latest radar trends have trimmed back pops
to slight chance through early this evening...with temps slowly
falling back into the 70s. all covered well in current forecast.

Warm temperatures continue into the overnight with isolated
showers/thunderstorms coming to an end shortly after sunset as mid
level drying continues to suppress convective development.
Temperatures will fall into the 60s with generally clearing skies
as 500mb ridge builds over the region throughout the weekend. Warm
air continues to filter in with increasing dewpoints. With
plentiful warming, instability will increase on Saturday. While
there is a lack of forcing, diurnal heating may be enough to
trigger a few convective showers and thunderstorms mainly over the
higher terrain of the Adirondacks and South Central Vermont during
the afternoon. Max temperatures expected to be similar to today,
80s to low 90s, but more clouds possible as we see an increase in
moisture with PWATS nearing 1.5 inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 348 PM EDT Friday...An upper ridge will be over the region
Saturday night with fair and dry weather expected, but with lows
mainly in the 60s. Sunday will start out dry, but with
temperatures climbing to the mid to upper 80s by Sunday afternoon.
Expecting showers and thunderstorms to develop over the
Adirondacks by late Sunday morning, with showers and thunderstorms
developing across the remainder of the region during Sunday
afternoon. Expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue into
Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 348 PM EDT Friday...An upper shortwave will approach from
the eastern Great Lakes on Monday, with more showers and
thunderstorms likely. Expecting any shower or thunderstorm
activity to diminish early Monday night as the shortwave moves
east of the region. High pressure to build into the region on
Tuesday and will remain through Thursday. Models also show the
upper ridge will reestablish itself across the north country
Tuesday night through Thursday, with fair and dry weather
expected, along with cooler temperatures. Models showing a cold
front will approach the region late Thursday night and Friday,
with some timing differences on when precipitation will begin.
Have stayed with super-blend pops for Thursday night and Friday,
and will have low chance pops in for showers.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Generally VFR conditions expected this
afternoon and evening. Isolated showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms will mainly affect central and southern Vermont this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms have been short-lived, but
greatest potential of TAF sites being affected will be KMPV/KRUT.
MVFR/IFR fog development possible mainly at KMSS/KSLK after
06z/Saturday. Otherwise, Saturday will start with mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies. There`s the potential for afternoon showers
and thunderstorms to develop. Areas with the greatest chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be the Adirondacks, southern
Champlain Valley into South-Central Vermont.

Outlook 18Z Saturday through Wednesday...
Mainly VFR with a daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat appears to
occur in the Sunday and Monday time frame. Best chance for a dry
day will be Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The average first date of 90F or higher for Burlington VT is June
20th. The earliest occurrence in the calendar year of 90F was
April 17, 2002.

Record maximum temperatures for Friday 5/27 and Saturday 5/28 are as
follows:                   5/27         5/28
BTV - Burlington        91 in 1944    92 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        88 in 1960    88 in 1978
MSS - Massena           89 in 1978    89 in 1978
St Johnsbury            89 in 1914    93 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            76 in 1978    77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM/Taber
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM
CLIMATE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271107
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
707 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will be the rule across the North Country
right through the entire Memorial Day weekend. High temperatures
will be on the order of 10 to 20 degrees above normal for this
time of year. In addition...higher dew points will lead to more
humid conditions and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will
exist...especially on Sunday and Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 707 AM EDT Friday...Warm air advection precipitation has
ended across Vermont this morning and clouds associated with it
have also be decreasing in areal coverage. Also seeing some clouds
associated with shortwave trough moving across Quebec Province
this morning. But as this cloud cover exits later this morning...
sunshine combined with warmer 925/850 mb temperatures than
yesterday suggests high temperatures should be in the 80s across
the entire area...which will be about 10 to 20 degrees above
normal for this time of year. This combined with dew points around
60 suggest instability should develop to enhance the potential for
convection this afternoon and evening. Weak ridging aloft and lack
of a well defined forcing mechanism suggests the terrain will be
the main driving force for any convection. Do not feel the
convection will be widespread as parameters for organized
convection are limited. Nevertheless...looking for precipitation
probabilities in the slight chance to chance category...especially
from the northern Adirondacks eastward. Brief heavy downpours
would be the main threat with any of the convection. As the
atmosphere stabilizes tonight... convection should end by
midnight. Higher dew points now in the area suggest overnight lows
will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s...which is 10 to 17 degrees
above normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 423 AM EDT Friday...saturday and saturday night will be
mainly dry and warm with large upper level ridge over the area as
well as high pressure at the surface. temperatures will be almost
twenty degrees warmer than normal for maximum temperatures as they
nudge 90 in the warmest spots. on sunday upper level ridge will
finally begin to slide eastward away from our area...upper level
trof will approach from the great lakes region. upper level
shortwaves move into our area and showers will become likely by
the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 423 AM EDT Friday...sunday night into monday a cold front
will approach from the great lakes region with a low lifting well
north of our area. cold front will move across the area during the
daytime hours and showers will be likely for monday. then upper
level flow will become more flat and westerly and a ridge of
surface high pressure builds into the north country. drier warm
weather will continue from tuesday through thursday. next chance
for showers will be friday as another cold front approaches from
the west.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Expect VFR conditions through much of the
period...but there will be a potential for MVFR and possibly IFR
conditions for ceilings and visibilities after 06z. This is when
deeper moisture moves in and combined with any residual moisture
from rainfall this afternoon and evening. The best potential for
showers or thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will generally
be between 20z and 03z. Winds will generally be under 10 knots
through the period.

Outlook 12Z Saturday through Tuesday... Mainly VFR with a daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through
Monday time frame.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Friday and Saturday will see the warmest temperatures of 2016
thus far. The average first date of 90F or higher for Burlington
VT is June 20th. The earliest occurrence in the calendar year of
90F was April 17, 2002.

Record maximum temperatures for Friday 5/27 and Saturday 5/28 are as
follows:                   5/27         5/28
BTV - Burlington        91 in 1944    92 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        88 in 1960    88 in 1978
MSS - Massena           89 in 1978    89 in 1978
St Johnsbury            89 in 1914    93 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            76 in 1978    77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Evenson/Lahiff
CLIMATE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270508
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
108 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will be the rule across the North
Country right through the entire Memorial Day weekend. High
temperatures will be on the order of 10 to 20 degrees above normal
for this time of year. In addition...higher dew points will lead
to more humid conditions and the threat for showers and
thunderstorms will exist...especially on Sunday and Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 108 AM EDT Friday...Threat for showers continues to
decrease early this morning as forcing and instability remain
limited. Have decreased precipitation chances as a result.
Adjusted cloud cover to match current conditions and did the same
with temperatures as cloud cover keeping temperatures up
overnight.

Friday begins relatively calm and mild under the aforementioned
upper ridge, and much like today expect some afternoon convection
to break out as the stalled front to our south overnight shifts
northeastward as a warm front. Axis of best instability and CAPE
appears to be from the Adirondacks eastward through Vermont, where
I`m not thinking we`ll see any real strong storms, but certainly a
few heavy downpours and a few strikes of lightning. 925mb temps
bump up to around +20-22C supporting highs ranging through the
80s, locally warmest in the Champlain, St. Lawrence and Southern
Connecticut River valleys pushing towards 90, but I think we`ll
fall just short in the upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 339 PM EDT Thursday...Showers and thunderstorms taper off
Friday night with brief period of surface high pressure into early
Saturday. Min temperatures will be mild in mostly cloudy skies,
ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday will see potential for some afternoon showers and
thunderstorms in temperatures nearing 90 in the broad valleys and
generally mid 80s elsewhere. Saturday night will be similar to
Friday night with regard to warm temperatures and drying trend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 339 PM EDT Thursday...Temperatures remain above normal
throughout the period, with most notable change occurring Monday
as max temperatures decrease from being in the low to upper 80s on
Sunday to the mid 70s to low 80s for the work week.

Throughout the day Sunday, ridge of high pressure slides east
into the Atlantic, increasing southerly flow and moisture over the
North Country. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will again be
expected as we enter the warm sector of surface low pressure
system over eastern Ontario. This system will keep chance for
precipitation Sunday night through late Monday/Monday night as a
cold front moves through the region.

High pressure builds at the surface and aloft across the
northeast and mid-atlantic states Tuesday through the middle of
the week with generally dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Expect VFR conditions through the period.
There will be a low potential for showers or thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening and will include some VCSH in the forecast.
Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the period.

Outlook 06Z Saturday through Tuesday... Mainly VFR with a daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through
Monday time frame.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Friday and Saturday will see the warmest temperatures of 2016
thus far. The average first date of 90F or higher for Burlington
VT is June 20th. The earliest occurrence in the calendar year of
90F was April 17, 2002.

Record maximum temperatures for Friday 5/27 and Saturday 5/28 are as
follows:                   5/27         5/28
BTV - Burlington        91 in 1944    92 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        88 in 1960    88 in 1978
MSS - Massena           89 in 1978    89 in 1978
St Johnsbury            89 in 1914    93 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            76 in 1978    77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...Evenson/Lahiff
CLIMATE...KGM




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