000
FXUS61 KALY 220114
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
914 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #203 HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
MIDNIGHT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...STRONG TO SEVERE...IS MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. THE ALBANY 00Z SOUNDING HAS
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1800 J/KG AND THE 850-500 MB LAPSE RATE OF
7.2 C/KM. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAJORITY OF REPORTS
EARLIER TODAY WHERE HAIL AND THIS EVENING WE HAVE HAD WIND AND
HAIL REPORTS.

AS 415 PM EDT...IMPRESSIVE LARGE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND POINTS JUST TO THE
SOUTH. THE CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED HAIL MONSTER LIKE CHARACTERISTICS
WITH SOME ELEVATED HAIL CORES /> 50 DBZS/ WAY ABOVE THE -20C
HEIGHT. IN SOME CASES...EXCEEDING 40 KFT AGL !!!

A QUICK MESOANALYIS SHOWS A WEAK SFC LOW/MESO LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...WITH THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT KGFL...AND S/SW AT KPOU...AND SE WINDS OVER ALY. THE FCST
AREA GOT INTO A WELL DEFINED WARM SECTOR...WHERE TEMPS SOARED INTO
THE MID AND U80S...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTHWARD. A FEW 90S HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT IS JUST CLIPPING THE DACKS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND S-CNTRL VT.

SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES SBCAPES
HAVE REACHED 2000-3500+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND
EAST...AND LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD /1000-2000 J/KG/. THE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES /BASICALLY
SOUTH OF ALY/ WITH LESS THAN 30 KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE
6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO REFIRING ON THE AXIS OF
2000+ J/KG SBCAPE VALUES...AND THE RIM OF THE 30 KT SHEAR VALUES.

THE LATEST MAGLENTA INDEX INDICATES A MAJOR SEVERE EVENT /HINGING
ON THE LARGE CAPE VALUES/.

CAPE=2000 J/KG (APPROX)
MAX SOUNDING WIND=40 KTS
EHI=0.5
STORM SPEED=20
KTS SRH=125

THE SVR CONVECTION SHOULD SIMMER DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE FROM EXTREME SE ONTARIO...AND NRN LAKE
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT OUR NRN ZONES BTWN BTWN 7 PM-10 PM. THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING...AND WE KEPT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST. POPS WERE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL AND HIGH LIKELY
VALUES...AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY COULD GET SOME
DECENT RAINFALL. THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT SETS UP IN THESE AREAS. THE SHOWALTER VALUES ARE STILL BELOW
0C...SO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE A ROUND...SO WE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN.

OVERNIGHT MINS WILL BE ON THE MURKY SIDE WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO
M60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE FCST AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 1000-2500 J/KG
AGAIN OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ONLY 25-30 KTS OR SO PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT THEN THEY
INCREASE BTWN 00Z-06Z BASED ON THE NAM/GFS. THE LAPSE RATES DON/T
STEEPEN TO 6.5C/KM UNTIL AROUND 00Z TOO. OUR THINKING IS FOR A
LATER CONVECTIVE EVENT TOMORROW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED /EXCEPT WRN NEW
ENGLAND/. HAVE DECIDED TO USE ENHANCED WORDING FOR SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE GUIDANCE USUALLY
STRUGGLES WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGHS...AND ONE LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES OF 1.25-1.75"...AND SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN
THE 60S AGAIN. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT TOMORROWS SEVERE THREAT.
OUR LOCAL WRF INDICATES A SQUALL LINE MAY BE MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL
NY BY 00Z/THU IN THE 3KM BASE REF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS...AND
M80S TO U80S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S WED
NIGHT WITH SULTRY SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS.

THU-THU NIGHT...TRICKY FORECAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ON
THU WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL TO THE WEST. THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING AND ISSUE. LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
AND EAST MAY HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE
WEATHER. NO SPC OUTLOOK YET...BUT DEFINITELY COULD SEE ONE LATER
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SLOWLY...WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK WAVE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOO. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S BY
DAYBREAK FRI. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER`S GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GEFS MEANS. WPC
INDICATES THE DETERMINISTIC/OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE STEADIER MEANS THAT THEY WERE
NOT INCORPORATION INTO THEIR FORECAST.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE
LINGER SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
EAST. ON SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...AROUND 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

AT THIS TIME...NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE EXPANSION OF
THE GROWING SEASON BY THIS TIME FROST ADVISORIES WOULD BE LIKELY
NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS COULD BE COLDER WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A
FREEZE WARNING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS REGION PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...STRONG TO SEVERE...HAS MOVED INTO
THE AREA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALSO HAVE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IMPACTED THE MOST OVERNIGHT. BASED
TIMING OF CONVECTION THROUGH TAFS ON RADAR TRENDS. DO EXPECT A
LULL IN CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA BECOMING LIKELY.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG
VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGHEST AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC QPF WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION...AND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220038
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
838 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BRING OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 803 PM EDT TUESDAY...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HISTORY OF
SEVERE MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
STRONG STRONG TO SEVERE DESPITE LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
THIS LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS VERMONT THIS EVENING A BREAK IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO EARLY THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT LATEST TRENDS...BUT OVERNIGHT PORTION OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS/SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
IT APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF S-SW
FLOW AT 850MB ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL EVOLUTION SUGGESTS
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS....AND THE SOUTH
WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY UPR
50S TO AROUND 60. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTM MENTION IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER. DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE. PBL DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE INTO THE LOW 60S...AND WITH
PARTIAL SUN CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG. AGAIN...MARGINAL/WEAK FORCING IN PLAY SO WHILE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS IS LOW...ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA IS POSSIBLE...LIKELY
PEAKING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX IN THE MID-LATE AFTN HOURS. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. VALLEY HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80.

POSITIVE TILTED UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES SLOWLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY THURSDAY AFTN. DEEP-
LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ENSURE
MOISTURE/SOME INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AROUND 6 C/KM. WITH PEAK
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 70S ACROSS VT TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR
70F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LOW WILL TRAIL BEHIND. SLOW
MOVING FLOW CONTINUES AS SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CREEPS EASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE REGION. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FINALLY DECREASES AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...KEEPING CHC OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
LATE FRIDAY IN TO FRIDAY NIGHT...TROUGH LOOKS TO TILT NEUTRAL TO
NEGATIVE AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SFC LOW
TRAVERSES NEWD NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND...KEEPING BACK/WRN EDGE OF
PRECIP NEAR VT...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC POPS OVER VT FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER SW HUDSONS BAY...EXTENDING SWD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE FAIRLY DRY BUT BRING CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...SOME TROUGHINESS
REMAINING OVER ERN ZONES...WITH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF VT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...COMPLEX FORECAST AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WARM FRONT SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR TONIGHT WITH
IFR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV/MSS. VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY
ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY BEFORE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...RJS/KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 220021
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
821 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
ON FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...STRONG TO SEVERE...HAS MOVED INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. PLUS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.

AS 415 PM EDT...IMPRESSIVE LARGE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND POINTS JUST TO THE
SOUTH. THE CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED HAIL MONSTER LIKE CHARACTERISTICS
WITH SOME ELEVATED HAIL CORES /> 50 DBZS/ WAY ABOVE THE -20C
HEIGHT. IN SOME CASES...EXCEEDING 40 KFT AGL !!!

A QUICK MESOANALYIS SHOWS A WEAK SFC LOW/MESO LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...WITH THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT KGFL...AND S/SW AT KPOU...AND SE WINDS OVER ALY. THE FCST
AREA GOT INTO A WELL DEFINED WARM SECTOR...WHERE TEMPS SOARED INTO
THE MID AND U80S...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTHWARD. A FEW 90S HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT IS JUST CLIPPING THE DACKS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND S-CNTRL VT.

SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES SBCAPES
HAVE REACHED 2000-3500+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND
EAST...AND LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD /1000-2000 J/KG/. THE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES /BASICALLY
SOUTH OF ALY/ WITH LESS THAN 30 KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE
6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO REFIRING ON THE AXIS OF
2000+ J/KG SBCAPE VALUES...AND THE RIM OF THE 30 KT SHEAR VALUES.

THE LATEST MAGLENTA INDEX INDICATES A MAJOR SEVERE EVENT /HINGING
ON THE LARGE CAPE VALUES/.

CAPE=2000 J/KG (APPROX)
MAX SOUNDING WIND=40 KTS
EHI=0.5
STORM SPEED=20
KTS SRH=125

THE SVR CONVECTION SHOULD SIMMER DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE FROM EXTREME SE ONTARIO...AND NRN LAKE
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT OUR NRN ZONES BTWN BTWN 7 PM-10 PM. THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING...AND WE KEPT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST. POPS WERE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL AND HIGH LIKELY
VALUES...AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY COULD GET SOME
DECENT RAINFALL. THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT SETS UP IN THESE AREAS. THE SHOWALTER VALUES ARE STILL BELOW
0C...SO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE A ROUND...SO WE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN.

OVERNIGHT MINS WILL BE ON THE MURKY SIDE WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO
M60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE FCST AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 1000-2500 J/KG
AGAIN OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ONLY 25-30 KTS OR SO PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT THEN THEY
INCREASE BTWN 00Z-06Z BASED ON THE NAM/GFS. THE LAPSE RATES DON/T
STEEPEN TO 6.5C/KM UNTIL AROUND 00Z TOO. OUR THINKING IS FOR A
LATER CONVECTIVE EVENT TOMORROW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED /EXCEPT WRN NEW
ENGLAND/. HAVE DECIDED TO USE ENHANCED WORDING FOR SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE GUIDANCE USUALLY
STRUGGLES WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGHS...AND ONE LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES OF 1.25-1.75"...AND SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN
THE 60S AGAIN. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT TOMORROWS SEVERE THREAT.
OUR LOCAL WRF INDICATES A SQUALL LINE MAY BE MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL
NY BY 00Z/THU IN THE 3KM BASE REF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS...AND
M80S TO U80S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S WED
NIGHT WITH SULTRY SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS.

THU-THU NIGHT...TRICKY FORECAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ON
THU WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL TO THE WEST. THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING AND ISSUE. LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
AND EAST MAY HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE
WEATHER. NO SPC OUTLOOK YET...BUT DEFINITELY COULD SEE ONE LATER
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SLOWLY...WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK WAVE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOO. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S BY
DAYBREAK FRI. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER`S GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GEFS MEANS. WPC
INDICATES THE DETERMINISTIC/OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE STEADIER MEANS THAT THEY WERE
NOT INCORPORATION INTO THEIR FORECAST.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE
LINGER SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
EAST. ON SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...AROUND 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

AT THIS TIME...NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE EXPANSION OF
THE GROWING SEASON BY THIS TIME FROST ADVISORIES WOULD BE LIKELY
NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS COULD BE COLDER WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A
FREEZE WARNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS REGION PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...STRONG TO SEVERE...HAS MOVED INTO
THE AREA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALSO HAVE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IMPACTED THE MOST OVERNIGHT. BASED
TIMING OF CONVECTION THROUGH TAFS ON RADAR TRENDS. DO EXPECT A
LULL IN CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA BECOMING LIKELY.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG
VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGHEST AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC QPF WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION...AND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 212032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

AS 415 PM EDT...IMPRESSIVE LARGE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND POINTS JUST TO THE SOUTH.
THE CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED HAIL MONSTER LIKE CHARACTERISTICS WITH
SOME ELEVATED HAIL CORES /> 50 DBZS/ WAY ABOVE THE -20C HEIGHT.
IN SOME CASES...EXCEEDING 40 KFT AGL !!!

A QUICK MESOANALYIS SHOWS A WEAK SFC LOW/MESO LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...WITH THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT KGFL...AND S/SW AT KPOU...AND SE WINDS OVER ALY. THE FCST
AREA GOT INTO A WELL DEFINED WARM SECTOR...WHERE TEMPS SOARED INTO
THE MID AND U80S...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTHWARD. A FEW 90S HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT IS JUST CLIPPING THE DACKS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND S-CNTRL VT.

SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES SBCAPES
HAVE REACHED 2000-3500+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND
EAST...AND LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD /1000-2000 J/KG/. THE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES /BASICALLY
SOUTH OF ALY/ WITH LESS THAN 30 KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE
6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO REFIRING ON THE AXIS OF
2000+ J/KG SBCAPE VALUES...AND THE RIM OF THE 30 KT SHEAR VALUES.

THE LATEST MAGLENTA INDEX INDICATES A MAJOR SEVERE EVENT /HINGING
ON THE LARGE CAPE VALUES/.

CAPE=2000 J/KG (APPROX)
MAX SOUNDING WIND=40 KTS
EHI=0.5
STORM SPEED=20
KTS SRH=125

THE SVR CONVECTION SHOULD SIMMER DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE FROM EXTREME SE ONTARIO...AND NRN LAKE
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT OUR NRN ZONES BTWN BTWN 7 PM-10 PM. THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING...AND WE KEPT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST. POPS WERE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL AND HIGH LIKELY
VALUES...AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY COULD GET SOME
DECENT RAINFALL. THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT SETS UP IN THESE AREAS. THE SHOWALTER VALUES ARE STILL BELOW
0C...SO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE A ROUND...SO WE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN.

OVERNIGHT MINS WILL BE ON THE MURKY SIDE WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO
M60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE FCST AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 1000-2500 J/KG
AGAIN OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ONLY 25-30 KTS OR SO PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT THEN THEY
INCREASE BTWN 00Z-06Z BASED ON THE NAM/GFS. THE LAPSE RATES DON/T
STEEPEN TO 6.5C/KM UNTIL AROUND 00Z TOO. OUR THINKING IS FOR A
LATER CONVECTIVE EVENT TOMORROW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED /EXCEPT WRN NEW
ENGLAND/. HAVE DECIDED TO USE ENHANCED WORDING FOR SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE GUIDANCE USUALLY
STRUGGLES WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGHS...AND ONE LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES OF 1.25-1.75"...AND SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN
THE 60S AGAIN. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT TOMORROWS SEVERE THREAT.
OUR LOCAL WRF INDICATES A SQUALL LINE MAY BE MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL
NY BY 00Z/THU IN THE 3KM BASE REF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS...AND
M80S TO U80S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S WED
NIGHT WITH SULTRY SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS.

THU-THU NIGHT...TRICKY FORECAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ON
THU WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL TO THE WEST. THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING AND ISSUE. LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
AND EAST MAY HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE
WEATHER. NO SPC OUTLOOK YET...BUT DEFINITELY COULD SEE ONE LATER
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SLOWLY...WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK WAVE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOO. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S BY
DAYBREAK FRI. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER`S GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GEFS MEANS. WPC
INDICATES THE DETERMINISTIC/OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE STEADIER MEANS THAT THEY WERE
NOT INCORPORATION INTO THEIR FORECAST.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE
LINGER SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
EAST. ON SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...AROUND 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

AT THIS TIME...NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE EXPANSION OF
THE GROWING SEASON BY THIS TIME FROST ADVISORIES WOULD BE LIKELY
NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS COULD BE COLDER WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A
FREEZE WARNING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HAS BEEN OCCURRING MAINLY
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
WEAK MESO LOW MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION SHOULD SIMMER DOWN
BY EARLY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING THREAT OF CONVECTION BACK TO THE AREA ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTING A LULL WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

HAVE NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE NORTH OF BOUNDARY AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL BE BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA BECOMING LIKELY.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG
VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGHEST AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC QPF WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION...AND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/NAS
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 212026
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
426 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BRING OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS/SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING
FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF S-SW FLOW AT 850MB ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE.
OVERALL EVOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY CONDITIONS....AND THE SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY UPR 50S TO AROUND 60.
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTM MENTION IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER. DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE. PBL DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE INTO THE LOW 60S...AND WITH
PARTIAL SUN CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG. AGAIN...MARGINAL/WEAK FORCING IN PLAY SO WHILE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS IS LOW...ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA IS POSSIBLE...LIKELY
PEAKING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX IN THE MID-LATE AFTN HOURS. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. VALLEY HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80.

POSITIVE TILTED UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES SLOWLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY THURSDAY AFTN. DEEP-
LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ENSURE
MOISTURE/SOME INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AROUND 6 C/KM. WITH PEAK
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 70S ACROSS VT TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR
70F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LOW WILL TRAIL BEHIND. SLOW
MOVING FLOW CONTINUES AS SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CREEPS EASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE REGION. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FINALLY DECREASES AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...KEEPING CHC OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
LATE FRIDAY IN TO FRIDAY NIGHT...TROUGH LOOKS TO TILT NEUTRAL TO
NEGATIVE AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SFC LOW
TRAVERSES NEWD NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND...KEEPING BACK/WRN EDGE OF
PRECIP NEAR VT...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC POPS OVER VT FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER SW HUDSONS BAY...EXTENDING SWD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE FAIRLY DRY BUT BRING CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...SOME TROUGHINESS
REMAINING OVER ERN ZONES...WITH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF VT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX FCST AS LL MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH
TRYING TO REACH NORTH. FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH ALSO HAS
INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG IT...TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. MORE
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. VRB CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTN...MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS. MPV AND RUT SEEING
THE MOST BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MOISTURE AND
MVFR CIGS WILL REACH THESE SITES IN THE LATE AFTN TO EARLY
EVENING HRS.

MORE FOG/BR AND LOW CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACRS TAF
SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE.
ALSO...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL BE
POSSIBLE AFT 01Z TONIGHT...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING HOURS...WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT FOR WEDS INTO THURS...BEFORE SFC
HIGH PRES AND CLRING DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND. VFR WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 212021
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
421 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

AS 415 PM EDT...IMPRESSIVE LARGE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND POINTS JUST TO THE SOUTH.
THE CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED HAIL MONSTER LIKE CHARACTERISTICS WITH
SOME ELEVATED HAIL CORES /> 50 DBZS/ WAY ABOVE THE -20C HEIGHT.
IN SOME CASES...EXCEEDING 40 KFT AGL !!!

A QUICK MESOANALYIS SHOWS A WEAK SFC LOW/MESO LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...WITH THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT KGFL...AND S/SW AT KPOU...AND SE WINDS OVER ALY. THE FCST
AREA GOT INTO A WELL DEFINED WARM SECTOR...WHERE TEMPS SOARED INTO
THE MID AND U80S...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTHWARD. A FEW 90S HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT IS JUST CLIPPING THE DACKS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND S-CNTRL VT.

SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES SBCAPES
HAVE REACHED 2000-3500+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND
EAST...AND LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD /1000-2000 J/KG/. THE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES /BASICALLY
SOUTH OF ALY/ WITH LESS THAN 30 KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE
6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO REFIRING ON THE AXIS OF
2000+ J/KG SBCAPE VALUES...AND THE RIM OF THE 30 KT SHEAR VALUES.

THE LATEST MAGLENTA INDEX INDICATES A MAJOR SEVERE EVENT /HINGING
ON THE LARGE CAPE VALUES/.

CAPE=2000 J/KG (APPROX)
MAX SOUNDING WIND=40 KTS
EHI=0.5
STORM SPEED=20
KTS SRH=125

THE SVR CONVECTION SHOULD SIMMER DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE FROM EXTREME SE ONTARIO...AND NRN LAKE
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT OUR NRN ZONES BTWN BTWN 7 PM-10 PM. THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING...AND WE KEPT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST. POPS WERE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL AND HIGH LIKELY
VALUES...AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY COULD GET SOME
DECENT RAINFALL. THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT SETS UP IN THESE AREAS. THE SHOWALTER VALUES ARE STILL BELOW
0C...SO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE A ROUND...SO WE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN.

OVERNIGHT MINS WILL BE ON THE MURKY SIDE WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO
M60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE FCST AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 1000-2500 J/KG
AGAIN OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ONLY 25-30 KTS OR SO PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT THEN THEY
INCREASE BTWN 00Z-06Z BASED ON THE NAM/GFS. THE LAPSE RATES DON/T
STEEPEN TO 6.5C/KM UNTIL AROUND 00Z TOO. OUR THINKING IS FOR A
LATER CONVECTIVE EVENT TOMORROW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED /EXCEPT WRN NEW
ENGLAND/. HAVE DECIDED TO USE ENHANCED WORDING FOR SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE GUIDANCE USUALLY
STRUGGLES WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGHS...AND ONE LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES OF 1.25-1.75"...AND SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN
THE 60S AGAIN. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT TOMORROWS SEVERE THREAT.
OUR LOCAL WRF INDICATES A SQUALL LINE MAY BE MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL
NY BY 00Z/THU IN THE 3KM BASE REF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS...AND
M80S TO U80S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S WED
NIGHT WITH SULTRY SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS.

THU-THU NIGHT...TRICKY FORECAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ON
THU WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL TO THE WEST. THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING AND ISSUE. LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
AND EAST MAY HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE
WEATHER. NO SPC OUTLOOK YET...BUT DEFINITELY COULD SEE ONE LATER
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SLOWLY...WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK WAVE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOO. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S BY
DAYBREAK FRI. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER`S GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GEFS MEANS. WPC
INDICATES THE DETERMINISTIC/OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE STEADIER MEANS THAT THEY WERE
NOT INCORPORATION INTO THEIR FORECAST.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE
LINGER SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
EAST. ON SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLIONIC FLOW. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...AROUND 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

AT THIS TIME...NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE EXPANSION OF
THE GROWING SEASON BY THIS TIME FROST ADVISORIES WOULD BE LIKELY
NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS COULD BE COLDER WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A
FREEZE WARNING.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE FA ALONG WITH SOME
WHICH DEVELOP ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON COULD AFFECT THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OF
ANY STORM IMPACTING THE TAF SITES...JUST PLACING VCSH AT ALL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SOME FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL BREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MIDDAY...SO HAVE PLACED VCSH IN TAFS AT
15Z WED.

LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 7 KTS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT KPSF
AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG
VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGHEST AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC QPF WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION...AND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211825
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
225 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
WON/T BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
FORECAST...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. DID LOWER TEMPS FOR
TODAY SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM - WHICH BROUGHT 0.25 TO 0.50" RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS - HAS NOW DEPARTED THE FORECAST
AREA INTO NRN NH. AS THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN
VT/QUEBEC SHIFTS EWD...SFC WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT NORTH TO NE
ACROSS NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTN WILL BE ACROSS SRN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND S-CENTRAL VT IN PARTICULAR (TEMPS
REACH 75-78F ACROSS SRN VALLEYS THIS AFTN). IN THE
MEANTIME...LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTN. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...WITH 30-50 POPS FOR RAIN
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: 30-40 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET PER KTYX VAD
WIND PROFILE AT 0730Z CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOURCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MODERATELY STRONG 850MB WAA WILL BUILD EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS ALONG/NORTH OF E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY
BNDRY. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EWD THRU MID MORNING. ONCE
THIS INITIAL AREA OF ACTIVITY PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
(LATE MORNING/AFTN) WILL SEE JUST A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH WEAK 700-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. IT
APPEARS BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR SRN CWA...AND THIS IS
WHERE 40-50 POPS AND CHANCE OF TSTMS IS MENTIONED. 30 POP WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS NWRN VT/NRN NY FOR THE AFTN
HRS. GOOD NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN TEMPS THIS AFTN. PARTIAL
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ACROSS NRN
HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND SHOULD
TREND LIGHT NORTH ACROSS NRN VT AND NELY AROUND 10 KTS IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. FRONTAL ZONE/NORTH WINDS WILL LIKEWISE LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN...ANOTHER REASON IT
APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BRING A TOTAL OF 1-1.25" OF RAINFALL
TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS/SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER SURGE OF S-SW FLOW AT 850MB ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL
EVOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS....AND THE SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON
THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY UPR 50S TO AROUND 60. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTM MENTION IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.

NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS
FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. DIFFICULT TO
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW
HAS SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. PBL DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE INTO
THE LOW 60S...AND WITH PARTIAL SUN CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. AGAIN...MARGINAL/WEAK FORCING IN
PLAY SO WHILE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS LOW...ISOLD TO
SCT -TSRA IS POSSIBLE...LIKELY PEAKING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX
IN THE MID-LATE AFTN HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VALLEY HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE UPR 70S TO AROUND 80.

POSITIVE TILT UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES SLOWLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY THURSDAY AFTN. DEEP-
LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ENSURE
MOISTURE/SOME INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AROUND 6 C/KM. WITH PEAK
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 70S ACROSS VT TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR
70F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...KEEPING CHC OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
LATE FRIDAY IN TO FRIDAY NIGHT...TROUGH LOOKS TO TILT NEUTRAL TO
NEGATIVE AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SFC LOW
TRAVERSES NEWD NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND...KEEPING BACK/WRN EDGE OF
PRECIP NEAR VT...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC POPS OVER VT FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER SW HUDSONS BAY...EXTENDING SWD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE FAIRLY DRY BUT BRING CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...SOME TROUGHINESS
REMAINING OVER ERN ZONES...WITH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF VT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX FCST AS LL MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH
TRYING TO REACH NORTH. FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH ALSO HAS
INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG IT...TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. MORE
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. VRB CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTN...MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS. MPV AND RUT SEEING
THE MOST BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MOISTURE AND
MVFR CIGS WILL REACH THESE SITES IN THE LATE AFTN TO EARLY
EVENING HRS.

MORE FOG/BR AND LOW CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACRS TAF
SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE.
ALSO...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL BE
POSSIBLE AFT 01Z TONIGHT...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING HOURS...WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT FOR WEDS INTO THURS...BEFORE SFC
HIGH PRES AND CLRING DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND. VFR WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 211801
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
201 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND THURSDAY WITH
MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT
RETURNS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

AS 145 PM EDT...AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC AND WFO BGM AND BUF
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL /1 INCH AND GREATER/ AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE FOR SEVERE...BUT AIR
MASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AS
DESCRIBED BELOW.

THE AIR MASS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE IN
THE WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS PM WITH TEMPS GETTING CLOSE TO
CONVECTIVE TEMPS...AND ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION FIRING OVER WRN-
CNTRL NY. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO THE MID AND U80S OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THERE MAYBE A
FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 90F TOO NEAR KPOU. ELSEWHERE TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE U70S TO M80S.

ALSO...SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FCST. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES
SBCAPES HAVE REACHED 2000-3000+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH AND EAST...AND LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD /1000-2000 J/KG/.
THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES
WITH LESS THAN 20 KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR VALUES ARE
30-35 KTS. THEREFORE...BETTER...DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION...IS
POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH...WITH PULSE CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE 6.5 C/KM
RANGE. THE ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL PROMOTE SOME LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL TOO.

NOW...UPSTREAM...A POSSIBLE REMNANT MCV IS MOVING ACROSS SE
ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
POSSIBLE SEVERE CONVECTION /ASIDE FROM THE PULSE CONVECTION/. THE
12Z KALB SOUNDING DOES INDICATE A MID LEVEL CAP BTWN 500-550 HPA
THAT WILL NEED TO BE ERODED FOR ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER. THE
UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS HOLDING TOGETHER...SO THIS CAP COULD BE BROKEN.

THE LATEST MAGLENTA INDEX INDICATES A MAJOR SEVERE EVENT /HINGING
ON THE LARGE CAPE VALUES/.

CAPE=2000 J/KG (APPROX)
MAX SOUNDING WIND=40 KTS
EHI=0.5
STORM SPEED=20
KTS SRH=125

THINKING HAS CHANGED FOR A MINOR TO MAJOR EVENT BASED ON THE
VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE FA ALONG WITH SOME
WHICH DEVELOP ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON COULD AFFECT THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OF
ANY STORM IMPACTING THE TAF SITES...JUST PLACING VCSH AT ALL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SOME FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL BREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MIDDAY...SO HAVE PLACED VCSH IN TAFS AT
15Z WED.

LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 7 KTS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT KPSF
AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/LFM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
WON/T BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
FORECAST...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. DID LOWER TEMPS FOR
TODAY SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM - WHICH BROUGHT 0.25 TO 0.50" RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS - HAS NOW DEPARTED THE FORECAST
AREA INTO NRN NH. AS THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN
VT/QUEBEC SHIFTS EWD...SFC WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT NORTH TO NE
ACROSS NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTN WILL BE ACROSS SRN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND S-CENTRAL VT IN PARTICULAR (TEMPS
REACH 75-78F ACROSS SRN VALLEYS THIS AFTN). IN THE
MEANTIME...LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTN. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...WITH 30-50 POPS FOR RAIN
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: 30-40 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET PER KTYX VAD
WIND PROFILE AT 0730Z CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOURCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MODERATELY STRONG 850MB WAA WILL BUILD EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS ALONG/NORTH OF E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY
BNDRY. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EWD THRU MID MORNING. ONCE
THIS INITIAL AREA OF ACTIVITY PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
(LATE MORNING/AFTN) WILL SEE JUST A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH WEAK 700-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. IT
APPEARS BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR SRN CWA...AND THIS IS
WHERE 40-50 POPS AND CHANCE OF TSTMS IS MENTIONED. 30 POP WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS NWRN VT/NRN NY FOR THE AFTN
HRS. GOOD NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN TEMPS THIS AFTN. PARTIAL
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ACROSS NRN
HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND SHOULD
TREND LIGHT NORTH ACROSS NRN VT AND NELY AROUND 10 KTS IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. FRONTAL ZONE/NORTH WINDS WILL LIKEWISE LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN...ANOTHER REASON IT
APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BRING A TOTAL OF 1-1.25" OF RAINFALL
TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS/SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER SURGE OF S-SW FLOW AT 850MB ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL
EVOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS....AND THE SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON
THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY UPR 50S TO AROUND 60. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTM MENTION IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.

NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS
FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. DIFFICULT TO
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW
HAS SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. PBL DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE INTO
THE LOW 60S...AND WITH PARTIAL SUN CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. AGAIN...MARGINAL/WEAK FORCING IN
PLAY SO WHILE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS LOW...ISOLD TO
SCT -TSRA IS POSSIBLE...LIKELY PEAKING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX
IN THE MID-LATE AFTN HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VALLEY HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE UPR 70S TO AROUND 80.

POSITIVE TILT UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES SLOWLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY THURSDAY AFTN. DEEP-
LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ENSURE
MOISTURE/SOME INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AROUND 6 C/KM. WITH PEAK
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 70S ACROSS VT TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR
70F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT TUESDAY...TRENDS WL BE FOR DRIER AND COOLER WX
AS WE HEAD INTO THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WKND. BEST CHC FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS WL BE LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS FRNT IS SLOW TO
EXIT OUR CWA...AND SECONDARY S/W ENERGY DROPS ACRS OUR FA ON
FRIDAY. THIS ENERGY ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER 850 TO 500MB
RH WL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST CHC POPS
WL BE ACRS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS OF VT. OTHERWISE...COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR FA ON SATURDAY THRU MONDAY.
THIS WL PROVIDE REGION WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY...COOLER
TEMPS...AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS A
BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZNS DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACRS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZNS. THIS WOULD PRODUCE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THRU EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY AND NARROW AXIS OF RH/LIFT WL KEEP SAT DRY ATTM.

SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS WL PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S...ESPECIALLY ON BY SUNDAY AFTN.
TEMPS WL START IN THE MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE U50S MTNS TO
L/M60S CPV/SLV...WITH LOW RH VALUES. A GREAT DAY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER/DEEPER MTN VALLEYS WL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD...AS PROGGED BY THE ECMWF. BY MONDAY INTO
TUES...LLVL WAA DEVELOPS AND TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX FCST AS LL MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH
TRYING TO REACH NORTH. FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH ALSO HAS
INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG IT...TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. MORE
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. VRB CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTN...MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS. MPV AND RUT SEEING
THE MOST BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MOISTURE AND
MVFR CIGS WILL REACH THESE SITES IN THE LATE AFTN TO EARLY
EVENING HRS.

MORE FOG/BR AND LOW CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACRS TAF
SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE.
ALSO...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL BE
POSSIBLE AFT 01Z TONIGHT...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING HOURS...WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT FOR WEDS INTO THURS...BEFORE SFC
HIGH PRES AND CLRING DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND. VFR WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...KGM/TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 211731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND THURSDAY WITH
MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT
RETURNS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...

AS 100 PM EDT...THE AIR MASS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE IN
THE WARM SECTOR IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY PM WITH TEMPS
GETTING CLOSE TO CONVECTIVE TEMPS...AND ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION
FIRING OVER WRN-CNTRL NY. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO THE MID AND
U80S OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THERE MAYBE A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 90F TOO NEAR KPOU.
ELSEWHERE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE U70S TO M80S.

ALSO...SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FCST. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES
SBCAPES HAVE REACHED 2000-3000+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH AND EAST. MUCH LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD. THE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES WITH LESS THAN 20
KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR VALUES ARE 30-35 KTS.
THEREFORE...BETTER...DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION...IS POSSIBLE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH...WITH PULSE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE 6.5 C/KM RANGE. IT
APPEARS THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE WIND...BUT WE WILL MENTION
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FOR NOW...AND UPGRADE IF WE GET A
CONVECTIVE WATCH.

NOW...UPSTREAM...A POSSIBLE REMNANT MCV IS MOVING ACROSS SE
ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION /ASIDE FROM THE PULSE
CONVECTION/. THE 12Z KALB SOUNDING DOES INDICATE A MID LEVEL CAP
BTWN 500-550 HPA THAT WILL NEED TO BE ERODED FOR ROBUST SEVERE
WEATHER.

AT THIS POINT THINKING IS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE /5 OR LESS
REPORTS/...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE. THE LATEST
HIRES WRF INDICATES ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS
OVER THE NRN TIER TOWARDS 00Z/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE FA ALONG WITH SOME
WHICH DEVELOP ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON COULD AFFECT THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OF
ANY STORM IMPACTING THE TAF SITES...JUST PLACING VCSH AT ALL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SOME FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL BREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MIDDAY...SO HAVE PLACED VCSH IN TAFS AT
15Z WED.

LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 7 KTS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT KPSF
AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/LFM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/LFM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211725
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
WON/T BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
FORECAST...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM - WHICH BROUGHT 0.25 TO 0.50" RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS - HAS NOW DEPARTED THE FORECAST
AREA INTO NRN NH. AS THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN
VT/QUEBEC SHIFTS EWD...SFC WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT NORTH TO NE
ACROSS NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTN WILL BE ACROSS SRN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND S-CENTRAL VT IN PARTICULAR (TEMPS
REACH 75-78F ACROSS SRN VALLEYS THIS AFTN). IN THE
MEANTIME...LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTN. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...WITH 30-50 POPS FOR RAIN
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: 30-40 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET PER KTYX VAD
WIND PROFILE AT 0730Z CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOURCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MODERATELY STRONG 850MB WAA WILL BUILD EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS ALONG/NORTH OF E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY
BNDRY. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EWD THRU MID MORNING. ONCE
THIS INITIAL AREA OF ACTIVITY PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
(LATE MORNING/AFTN) WILL SEE JUST A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH WEAK 700-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. IT
APPEARS BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR SRN CWA...AND THIS IS
WHERE 40-50 POPS AND CHANCE OF TSTMS IS MENTIONED. 30 POP WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS NWRN VT/NRN NY FOR THE AFTN
HRS. GOOD NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN TEMPS THIS AFTN. PARTIAL
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ACROSS NRN
HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND SHOULD
TREND LIGHT NORTH ACROSS NRN VT AND NELY AROUND 10 KTS IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. FRONTAL ZONE/NORTH WINDS WILL LIKEWISE LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN...ANOTHER REASON IT
APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BRING A TOTAL OF 1-1.25" OF RAINFALL
TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS/SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER SURGE OF S-SW FLOW AT 850MB ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL
EVOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS....AND THE SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON
THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY UPR 50S TO AROUND 60. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTM MENTION IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.

NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS
FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. DIFFICULT TO
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW
HAS SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. PBL DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE INTO
THE LOW 60S...AND WITH PARTIAL SUN CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. AGAIN...MARGINAL/WEAK FORCING IN
PLAY SO WHILE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS LOW...ISOLD TO
SCT -TSRA IS POSSIBLE...LIKELY PEAKING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX
IN THE MID-LATE AFTN HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VALLEY HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE UPR 70S TO AROUND 80.

POSITIVE TILT UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES SLOWLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY THURSDAY AFTN. DEEP-
LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ENSURE
MOISTURE/SOME INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AROUND 6 C/KM. WITH PEAK
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 70S ACROSS VT TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR
70F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT TUESDAY...TRENDS WL BE FOR DRIER AND COOLER WX
AS WE HEAD INTO THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WKND. BEST CHC FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS WL BE LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS FRNT IS SLOW TO
EXIT OUR CWA...AND SECONDARY S/W ENERGY DROPS ACRS OUR FA ON
FRIDAY. THIS ENERGY ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER 850 TO 500MB
RH WL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST CHC POPS
WL BE ACRS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS OF VT. OTHERWISE...COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR FA ON SATURDAY THRU MONDAY.
THIS WL PROVIDE REGION WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY...COOLER
TEMPS...AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS A
BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZNS DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACRS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZNS. THIS WOULD PRODUCE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THRU EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY AND NARROW AXIS OF RH/LIFT WL KEEP SAT DRY ATTM.

SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS WL PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S...ESPECIALLY ON BY SUNDAY AFTN.
TEMPS WL START IN THE MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE U50S MTNS TO
L/M60S CPV/SLV...WITH LOW RH VALUES. A GREAT DAY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER/DEEPER MTN VALLEYS WL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD...AS PROGGED BY THE ECMWF. BY MONDAY INTO
TUES...LLVL WAA DEVELOPS AND TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX FCST AS LL MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH
TRYING TO REACH NORTH. FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH ALSO HAS
INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG IT...TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. MORE
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. VRB CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTN...MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS. MPV AND RUT SEEING
THE MOST BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MOISTURE AND
MVFR CIGS WILL REACH THESE SITES IN THE LATE AFTN TO EARLY
EVENING HRS.

MORE FOG/BR AND LOW CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACRS TAF
SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE.
ALSO...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL BE
POSSIBLE AFT 01Z TONIGHT...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING HOURS...WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT FOR WEDS INTO THURS...BEFORE SFC
HIGH PRES AND CLRING DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND. VFR WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...KGM/TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 211704
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND THURSDAY WITH
MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT
RETURNS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...

AS 100 PM EDT...THE AIR MASS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE IN
THE WARM SECTOR IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY PM WITH TEMPS
GETTING CLOSE TO CONVECTIVE TEMPS...AND ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION
FIRING OVER WRN-CNTRL NY. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO THE MID AND
U80S OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THERE MAYBE A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 90F TOO NEAR KPOU.
ELSEWHERE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE U70S TO M80S.

ALSO...SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FCST. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES
SBCAPES HAVE REACHED 2000-3000+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH AND EAST. MUCH LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD. THE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES WITH LESS THAN 20
KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR VALUES ARE 30-35 KTS.
THEREFORE...BETTER...DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION...IS POSSIBLE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH...WITH PULSE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE 6.5 C/KM RANGE. IT
APPEARS THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE WIND...BUT WE WILL MENTION
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FOR NOW...AND UPGRADE IF WE GET A
CONVECTIVE WATCH.

NOW...UPSTREAM...A POSSIBLE REMNANT MCV IS MOVING ACROSS SE
ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION /ASIDE FROM THE PULSE
CONVECTION/. THE 12Z KALB SOUNDING DOES INDICATE A MID LEVEL CAP
BTWN 500-550 HPA THAT WILL NEED TO BE ERODED FOR ROBUST SEVERE
WEATHER.

AT THIS POINT THINKING IS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE /5 OR LESS
REPORTS/...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE. THE LATEST
HIRES WRF INDICATES ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS
OVER THE NRN TIER TOWARDS 00Z/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME TYPICAL EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFFECTING ALL SITES
AND SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR...EXCEPT
BY 16Z AT KPSF. THERE IS ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO THAT COULD APPROACH KGFL LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TOO EARLY AND TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN PUTTING A VCSH.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING COULD AFFECT OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER TO TRACK THIS FAR EAST.  AGAIN...DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES...JUST PUTTING VCSH AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SOME FOG AND LOW CEILINGS COULD
POTENTIALLY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/LFM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 211445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. THE HUMID
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND THURSDAY WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...A BROAD RIDGE AT 500 HPA IS SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION REMAINS IN A WARM SECTOR WITH
SKY COVERAGE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS SITTING JUST NORTH OF THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION WHERE IT IS GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE NY/VT BORDER.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
HEATING OF THE DAY AS A SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS. THE 3 KM HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SHOW
THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. IN
EITHER CASES...ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD
MOVE IN A GENERA-LY WEST TO EAST MANNER.

WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND TDS WELL INTO THE 60S...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-35 KTS AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ABOUT 6-7 DEGREES C PER KM...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH OF THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE TO ALLOW A STORM OR TWO TO
BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY
STORMS GROW TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN OUR HWO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME TYPICAL EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFFECTING ALL SITES
AND SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR...EXCEPT
BY 16Z AT KPSF. THERE IS ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO THAT COULD APPROACH KGFL LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TOO EARLY AND TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN PUTTING A VCSH.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING COULD AFFECT OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER TO TRACK THIS FAR EAST.  AGAIN...DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES...JUST PUTTING VCSH AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SOME FOG AND LOW CEILINGS COULD
POTENTIALLY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/LFM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/LFM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211419
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1019 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
WON/T BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
FORECAST...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM - WHICH BROUGHT 0.25 TO 0.50" RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS - HAS NOW DEPARTED THE FORECAST
AREA INTO NRN NH. AS THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN
VT/QUEBEC SHIFTS EWD...SFC WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT NORTH TO NE
ACROSS NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTN WILL BE ACROSS SRN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND S-CENTRAL VT IN PARTICULAR (TEMPS
REACH 75-78F ACROSS SRN VALLEYS THIS AFTN). IN THE
MEANTIME...LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTN. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...WITH 30-50 POPS FOR RAIN
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: 30-40 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET PER KTYX VAD
WIND PROFILE AT 0730Z CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOURCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MODERATELY STRONG 850MB WAA WILL BUILD EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS ALONG/NORTH OF E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY
BNDRY. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EWD THRU MID MORNING. ONCE
THIS INITIAL AREA OF ACTIVITY PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
(LATE MORNING/AFTN) WILL SEE JUST A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH WEAK 700-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. IT
APPEARS BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR SRN CWA...AND THIS IS
WHERE 40-50 POPS AND CHANCE OF TSTMS IS MENTIONED. 30 POP WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS NWRN VT/NRN NY FOR THE AFTN
HRS. GOOD NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN TEMPS THIS AFTN. PARTIAL
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ACROSS NRN
HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND SHOULD
TREND LIGHT NORTH ACROSS NRN VT AND NELY AROUND 10 KTS IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. FRONTAL ZONE/NORTH WINDS WILL LIKEWISE LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN...ANOTHER REASON IT
APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BRING A TOTAL OF 1-1.25" OF RAINFALL
TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS/SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER SURGE OF S-SW FLOW AT 850MB ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL
EVOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS....AND THE SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON
THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY UPR 50S TO AROUND 60. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTM MENTION IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.

NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS
FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. DIFFICULT TO
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW
HAS SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. PBL DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE INTO
THE LOW 60S...AND WITH PARTIAL SUN CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. AGAIN...MARGINAL/WEAK FORCING IN
PLAY SO WHILE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS LOW...ISOLD TO
SCT -TSRA IS POSSIBLE...LIKELY PEAKING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX
IN THE MID-LATE AFTN HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VALLEY HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE UPR 70S TO AROUND 80.

POSITIVE TILT UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES SLOWLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY THURSDAY AFTN. DEEP-
LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ENSURE
MOISTURE/SOME INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AROUND 6 C/KM. WITH PEAK
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 70S ACROSS VT TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR
70F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT TUESDAY...TRENDS WL BE FOR DRIER AND COOLER WX
AS WE HEAD INTO THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WKND. BEST CHC FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS WL BE LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS FRNT IS SLOW TO
EXIT OUR CWA...AND SECONDARY S/W ENERGY DROPS ACRS OUR FA ON
FRIDAY. THIS ENERGY ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER 850 TO 500MB
RH WL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST CHC POPS
WL BE ACRS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS OF VT. OTHERWISE...COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR FA ON SATURDAY THRU MONDAY.
THIS WL PROVIDE REGION WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY...COOLER
TEMPS...AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS A
BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZNS DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACRS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZNS. THIS WOULD PRODUCE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THRU EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY AND NARROW AXIS OF RH/LIFT WL KEEP SAT DRY ATTM.

SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS WL PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S...ESPECIALLY ON BY SUNDAY AFTN.
TEMPS WL START IN THE MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE U50S MTNS TO
L/M60S CPV/SLV...WITH LOW RH VALUES. A GREAT DAY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER/DEEPER MTN VALLEYS WL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD...AS PROGGED BY THE ECMWF. BY MONDAY INTO
TUES...LLVL WAA DEVELOPS AND TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS CONT ACRS OUR
TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH VFR AT RUT/BTV...MVFR AT
MPV/SLK/MSS...AND IFR AT PBG. EXPECT CIGS/VIS TO IMPROVE BTWN
14-15Z AT PBG. RADAR SHOWS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS...WHICH MAY IMPACT
RUTLAND TAF SITE BTWN 13-16Z THIS MORNING WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.
WINDS BEHIND LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
BEST INSTABILITY/SFC HEATING FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTN WL BE AT SLK/RUT/MPV. MORE FOG/BR AND LOW CIGS WL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE. ALSO...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE AFT 02Z TONIGHT...WITH MVFR
TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT FOR WEDS INTO THURS...BEFORE SFC
HIGH PRES AND CLRING DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND. VFR WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211139
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
WON/T BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT TUESDAY...LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM - WHICH BROUGHT 0.25 TO 0.50"
RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS - HAS NOW
DEPARTED THE FORECAST AREA INTO NRN NH. AS THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
INTL BORDER BETWEEN VT/QUEBEC SHIFTS EWD...SFC WINDS WILL TURN
LIGHT NORTH TO NE ACROSS NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT
CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTN WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND S-CENTRAL
VT IN PARTICULAR (TEMPS REACH 75-78F ACROSS SRN VALLEYS THIS AFTN). IN
THE MEANTIME...LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTN. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...WITH 30-50 POPS FOR RAIN THIS
AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: 30-40 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET PER KTYX VAD
WIND PROFILE AT 0730Z CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOURCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MODERATELY STRONG 850MB WAA WILL BUILD EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS ALONG/NORTH OF E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY BNDRY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EWD THRU MID MORNING. ONCE THIS
INITIAL AREA OF ACTIVITY PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY (LATE
MORNING/AFTN) WILL SEE JUST A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS
WITH WEAK 700-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. IT APPEARS BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR SRN CWA...AND THIS IS WHERE 40-50
POPS AND CHANCE OF TSTMS IS MENTIONED. 30 POP WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS NWRN VT/NRN NY FOR THE AFTN HRS. GOOD
NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN TEMPS THIS AFTN. PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ACROSS NRN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND SHOULD TREND LIGHT NORTH ACROSS
NRN VT AND NELY AROUND 10 KTS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTN
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FRONTAL
ZONE/NORTH WINDS WILL LIKEWISE LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS THIS AFTN...ANOTHER REASON IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
TSTM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN WILL BE ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BRING A TOTAL OF 1-1.25" OF RAINFALL
TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS/SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER SURGE OF S-SW FLOW AT 850MB ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL
EVOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS....AND
THE SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD
SIDE...GENERALLY UPR 50S TO AROUND 60. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTM MENTION IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.

NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONTAL
ZONE RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS SLIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. PBL DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE INTO THE LOW
60S...AND WITH PARTIAL SUN CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. AGAIN...MARGINAL/WEAK FORCING IN PLAY SO WHILE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS LOW...ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA IS
POSSIBLE...LIKELY PEAKING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX IN THE MID-LATE
AFTN HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VALLEY HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE
UPR 70S TO AROUND 80.

POSITIVE TILT UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES SLOWLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY THURSDAY AFTN. DEEP-
LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ENSURE
MOISTURE/SOME INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AROUND 6 C/KM. WITH PEAK
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 70S ACROSS VT TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR
70F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT TUESDAY...TRENDS WL BE FOR DRIER AND COOLER WX AS
WE HEAD INTO THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WKND. BEST CHC FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS WL BE LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS FRNT IS SLOW TO
EXIT OUR CWA...AND SECONDARY S/W ENERGY DROPS ACRS OUR FA ON
FRIDAY. THIS ENERGY ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER 850 TO 500MB RH
WL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST CHC POPS WL
BE ACRS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS OF VT. OTHERWISE...COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR FA ON SATURDAY THRU MONDAY. THIS WL
PROVIDE REGION WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY...COOLER TEMPS...AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS A BACKSIDE DEFORMATION
ZNS DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZNS. THIS WOULD PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
THRU EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND NARROW
AXIS OF RH/LIFT WL KEEP SAT DRY ATTM.

SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS WL PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S...ESPECIALLY ON BY SUNDAY AFTN.
TEMPS WL START IN THE MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE U50S MTNS TO
L/M60S CPV/SLV...WITH LOW RH VALUES. A GREAT DAY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER/DEEPER MTN VALLEYS WL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD...AS PROGGED BY THE ECMWF. BY MONDAY INTO
TUES...LLVL WAA DEVELOPS AND TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS CONT ACRS OUR
TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH VFR AT RUT/BTV...MVFR AT
MPV/SLK/MSS...AND IFR AT PBG. EXPECT CIGS/VIS TO IMPROVE BTWN
14-15Z AT PBG. RADAR SHOWS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS...WHICH MAY IMPACT
RUTLAND TAF SITE BTWN 13-16Z THIS MORNING WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDS
BEHIND LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEST
INSTABILITY/SFC HEATING FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTN WL
BE AT SLK/RUT/MPV. MORE FOG/BR AND LOW CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LLVL
MOISTURE. ALSO...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE AFT 02Z TONIGHT...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT FOR WEDS INTO THURS...BEFORE SFC
HIGH PRES AND CLRING DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND. VFR WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 211129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
729 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...A BROAD RIDGE AT 500 HPA IS SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION REMAINS IN A WARM
SECTOR...WITH A VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA.

A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SWEPT THROUGH THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS ALREADY WELL EAST OF THE
REGION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION WILL START THE DRY RAIN FREE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM
AND MUGGY. SOME VALLEY AREAS ARE SEEING PATCHY FOG TO START THE
DAY...BUT THE STRONG MAY SUN SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE THIS FOG BY
ABOUT 8 AM.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
HEATING OF THE DAY AS A SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS. THE 3 KM HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SHOW
THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. IN
EITHER CASES...ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD
MOVE IN A GENERA-LY WEST TO EAST MANNER.

WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND TDS WELL INTO THE 60S...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-35 KTS AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ABOUT 6-7 DEGREES C PER KM...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH OF THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE TO ALLOW A STORM OR TWO TO
BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. SPC HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN A
/SEE TEXT/ AREA FOR TODAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY
STORMS GROW TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN OUR HWO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME TYPICAL EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFFECTING ALL SITES
AND SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR...EXCEPT
BY 16Z AT KPSF. THERE IS ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO THAT COULD APPROACH KGFL LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TOO EARLY AND TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN PUTTING A VCSH.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING COULD AFFECT OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER TO TRACK THIS FAR EAST.  AGAIN...DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES...JUST PUTTING VCSH AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SOME FOG AND LOW CEILINGS COULD
POTENTIALLY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
WON/T BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT TUESDAY...LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM - WHICH BROUGHT 0.25 TO 0.50"
RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS - HAS NOW
DEPARTED THE FORECAST AREA INTO NRN NH. AS THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
INTL BORDER BETWEEN VT/QUEBEC SHIFTS EWD...SFC WINDS WILL TURN
LIGHT NORTH TO NE ACROSS NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT
CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTN WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND S-CENTRAL
VT IN PARTICULAR (TEMPS REACH 75-78F ACROSS SRN VALLEYS THIS AFTN). IN
THE MEANTIME...LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTN. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...WITH 30-50 POPS FOR RAIN THIS
AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: 30-40 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET PER KTYX VAD
WIND PROFILE AT 0730Z CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOURCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MODERATELY STRONG 850MB WAA WILL BUILD EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS ALONG/NORTH OF E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY BNDRY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EWD THRU MID MORNING. ONCE THIS
INITIAL AREA OF ACTIVITY PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY (LATE
MORNING/AFTN) WILL SEE JUST A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS
WITH WEAK 700-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. IT APPEARS BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR SRN CWA...AND THIS IS WHERE 40-50
POPS AND CHANCE OF TSTMS IS MENTIONED. 30 POP WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS NWRN VT/NRN NY FOR THE AFTN HRS. GOOD
NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN TEMPS THIS AFTN. PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ACROSS NRN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND SHOULD TREND LIGHT NORTH ACROSS
NRN VT AND NELY AROUND 10 KTS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTN
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FRONTAL
ZONE/NORTH WINDS WILL LIKEWISE LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS THIS AFTN...ANOTHER REASON IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
TSTM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN WILL BE ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BRING A TOTAL OF 1-1.25" OF RAINFALL
TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS/SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER SURGE OF S-SW FLOW AT 850MB ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL
EVOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS....AND
THE SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD
SIDE...GENERALLY UPR 50S TO AROUND 60. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTM MENTION IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.

NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONTAL
ZONE RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS SLIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. PBL DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE INTO THE LOW
60S...AND WITH PARTIAL SUN CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. AGAIN...MARGINAL/WEAK FORCING IN PLAY SO WHILE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS LOW...ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA IS
POSSIBLE...LIKELY PEAKING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX IN THE MID-LATE
AFTN HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VALLEY HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE
UPR 70S TO AROUND 80.

POSITIVE TILT UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES SLOWLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY THURSDAY AFTN. DEEP-
LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ENSURE
MOISTURE/SOME INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AROUND 6 C/KM. WITH PEAK
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 70S ACROSS VT TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR
70F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT TUESDAY...TRENDS WL BE FOR DRIER AND COOLER WX AS
WE HEAD INTO THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WKND. BEST CHC FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS WL BE LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS FRNT IS SLOW TO
EXIT OUR CWA...AND SECONDARY S/W ENERGY DROPS ACRS OUR FA ON
FRIDAY. THIS ENERGY ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER 850 TO 500MB RH
WL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST CHC POPS WL
BE ACRS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS OF VT. OTHERWISE...COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR FA ON SATURDAY THRU MONDAY. THIS WL
PROVIDE REGION WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY...COOLER TEMPS...AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS A BACKSIDE DEFORMATION
ZNS DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZNS. THIS WOULD PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
THRU EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND NARROW
AXIS OF RH/LIFT WL KEEP SAT DRY ATTM.

SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS WL PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S...ESPECIALLY ON BY SUNDAY AFTN.
TEMPS WL START IN THE MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE U50S MTNS TO
L/M60S CPV/SLV...WITH LOW RH VALUES. A GREAT DAY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER/DEEPER MTN VALLEYS WL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD...AS PROGGED BY THE ECMWF. BY MONDAY INTO
TUES...LLVL WAA DEVELOPS AND TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY..DIFFICULT TAFS WITH CRNT OBS RANGING FROM
LIFR AT MPV IN FOG TO VFR CONDITIONS AT BTV/RUT/MSS. EXPECT FOG TO
CONTINUE THRU 07Z...BEFORE LIFTING AS MID LVL CLOUDS INCREASE AT
MPV. OTHERWISE...CRNT RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS ACRS WESTERN SLV...THIS PRECIP WL IMPACT SLK BY
07Z...PBG/BTV/RUT BTWN 08Z-10Z...AND THRU OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z
THIS MORNING. EXPECT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KNTS...HEAVY RAIN
WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY WITH A CHC OF IFR VIS/CIGS IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. RAP13 SOUNDINGS SHOW LOTS OF LLVL RH
REDEVELOPING AFT 09Z...FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE
INCLUDED A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT MPV/SLK/MSS...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT PBG/BTV. WINDS BEHIND LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SHIFT TO
A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING...WHICH WL HELP TO ENHANCE LLVL
CIGS AT MSS/BTV. MVFR/IFR CIGS WL CONT THRU 14Z...BEFORE SLOWLY
LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z. BEST INSTABILITY/SFC
HEATING FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTN WL BE AT
SLK/RUT/MPV. MORE FOG/BR AND LOW CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LLVL
MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...BEFORE SFC HIGH PRES AND CLRING DEVELOPS BY THE
WEEKEND. VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 211030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...A BROAD RIDGE AT 500 HPA IS SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION REMAINS IN A WARM
SECTOR...WITH A VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA.

A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SWEPT THROUGH THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS ALREADY WELL EAST OF THE
REGION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION WILL START THE DRY RAIN FREE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM
AND MUGGY. SOME VALLEY AREAS ARE SEEING PATCHY FOG TO START THE
DAY...BUT THE STRONG MAY SUN SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE THIS FOG BY
ABOUT 8 AM.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
HEATING OF THE DAY AS A SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS. THE 3 KM HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SHOW
THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. IN
EITHER CASES...ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD
MOVE IN A GENERA-LY WEST TO EAST MANNER.

WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND TDS WELL INTO THE 60S...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-35 KTS AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ABOUT 6-7 DEGREES C PER KM...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH OF THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE TO ALLOW A STORM OR TWO TO
BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. SPC HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN A
/SEE TEXT/ AREA FOR TODAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY
STORMS GROW TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN OUR HWO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A WEAK
WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NY. SOME FOG HAS FORMED AT KPSF AND
ACKNOWLEDGING IFR FOG TEMPORARILY MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z AT KPSF. A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO IS MOVING
EAST...AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION IS NEAR KSYR.  THERE
IS A GUST FRONT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING AT AROUND 35
KT...BUT BASED ON THE STEERING FLOW SEEN ON RADARS ACROSS THE
REGION...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MAINLY TRACK DUE EAST.

AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TO
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN NY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IT IS TIMED TO REACH THE HUDSON
VALLEY AROUND 09Z...AND WITH CONTINUED STABILIZING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND WEAKENING OF THE
CONVECTION...JUST INDICATING VCSH AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE KGFL BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WILL AMEND TAFS AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IF RADAR SUGGESTS STRENGTH OF CONVECTION AND MOVEMENT
CONTINUES.

OUTSIDE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AND SOME SCATTERED VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. ONCE WHATEVER RAIN TRACKS EAST OF THE
REGION...BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET TEMPORARILY SCATTERED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...BUT NO REAL
ORGANIZED FOCUS SO LEAVING OUT ANY VCSH FOR NOW...BUT MAY BE ADDED
IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES TODAY ONCE THE CHARACTER OF CONVECTION IS
KNOWN WHEN IT FORMS.

WINDS SHOULD BE NEARLY CAL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KALB AND KGFL -SHRA LIKELY WITH CHC TSRA.
AT KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 210825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT...A BROAD RIDGE AT 500 HPA IS SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION REMAINS IN A WARM
SECTOR...WITH A VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA.

MOVING ALONG THIS SFC BOUNDARY AND AIDED BY A STRONG SW LOW LEVEL
JET...A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS LINE HAS WEAKENED FROM EARLIER
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN IT PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
ACROSS CNY AND THE LAKE ONTARIO REGION. STILL...A QUICK DOWNPOUR
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN ADKS AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE. MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTH WILL STAY DRY. BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...THIS BATCH OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE AND MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE DRY.

HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AS A SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHOWERS OR
STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS. THE 3 KM HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SHOW
THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. IN
EITHER CASES...ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD
MOVE TO THE W-SW.

WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND TDS WELL INTO THE 60S...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-35 KTS AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ABOUT 6-7 DEGREES C PER KM...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH OF THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE TO ALLOW A STORM OR TWO TO
BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. SPC HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN A
/SEE TEXT/ AREA FOR TODAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY
STORMS GROW TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN OUR HWO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A WEAK
WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NY. SOME FOG HAS FORMED AT KPSF AND
ACKNOWLEDGING IFR FOG TEMPORARILY MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z AT KPSF. A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO IS MOVING
EAST...AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION IS NEAR KSYR.  THERE
IS A GUST FRONT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING AT AROUND 35
KT...BUT BASED ON THE STEERING FLOW SEEN ON RADARS ACROSS THE
REGION...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MAINLY TRACK DUE EAST.

AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TO
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN NY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IT IS TIMED TO REACH THE HUDSON
VALLEY AROUND 09Z...AND WITH CONTINUED STABILIZING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND WEAKENING OF THE
CONVECTION...JUST INDICATING VCSH AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE KGFL BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WILL AMEND TAFS AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IF RADAR SUGGESTS STRENGTH OF CONVECTION AND MOVEMENT
CONTINUES.

OUTSIDE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AND SOME SCATTERED VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. ONCE WHATEVER RAIN TRACKS EAST OF THE
REGION...BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET TEMPORARILY SCATTERED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...BUT NO REAL
ORGANIZED FOCUS SO LEAVING OUT ANY VCSH FOR NOW...BUT MAY BE ADDED
IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES TODAY ONCE THE CHARACTER OF CONVECTION IS
KNOWN WHEN IT FORMS.

WINDS SHOULD BE NEARLY CAL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KALB AND KGFL -SHRA LIKELY WITH CHC TSRA.
AT KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
WON/T BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT TUESDAY...30-40 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET PER KTYX VAD
WIND PROFILE AT 0730Z CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOURCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MODERATELY STRONG 850MB WAA WILL BUILD EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS ALONG/NORTH OF E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY BNDRY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EWD THRU MID MORNING. ONCE THIS
INITIAL AREA OF ACTIVITY PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY (LATE
MORNING/AFTN) WILL SEE JUST A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS
WITH WEAK 700-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. IT APPEARS BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR SRN CWA...AND THIS IS WHERE 40-50
POPS AND CHANCE OF TSTMS IS MENTIONED. 30 POP WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS NWRN VT/NRN NY FOR THE AFTN HRS. GOOD
NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN TEMPS THIS AFTN. PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ACROSS NRN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND SHOULD TREND LIGHT NORTH ACROSS
NRN VT AND NELY AROUND 10 KTS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTN
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FRONTAL
ZONE/NORTH WINDS WILL LIKEWISE LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS THIS AFTN...ANOTHER REASON IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
TSTM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN WILL BE ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BRING A TOTAL OF 1-1.25" OF RAINFALL
TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS/SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER SURGE OF S-SW FLOW AT 850MB ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL
EVOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS....AND
THE SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD
SIDE...GENERALLY UPR 50S TO AROUND 60. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTM MENTION IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.

NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONTAL
ZONE RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS SLIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. PBL DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE INTO THE LOW
60S...AND WITH PARTIAL SUN CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. AGAIN...MARGINAL/WEAK FORCING IN PLAY SO WHILE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS LOW...ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA IS
POSSIBLE...LIKELY PEAKING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX IN THE MID-LATE
AFTN HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VALLEY HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE
UPR 70S TO AROUND 80.

POSITIVE TILT UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES SLOWLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY THURSDAY AFTN. DEEP-
LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ENSURE
MOISTURE/SOME INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AROUND 6 C/KM. WITH PEAK
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 70S ACROSS VT TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR
70F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT TUESDAY...TRENDS WL BE FOR DRIER AND COOLER WX AS
WE HEAD INTO THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WKND. BEST CHC FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS WL BE LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS FRNT IS SLOW TO
EXIT OUR CWA...AND SECONDARY S/W ENERGY DROPS ACRS OUR FA ON
FRIDAY. THIS ENERGY ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER 850 TO 500MB RH
WL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST CHC POPS WL
BE ACRS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS OF VT. OTHERWISE...COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR FA ON SATURDAY THRU MONDAY. THIS WL
PROVIDE REGION WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY...COOLER TEMPS...AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS A BACKSIDE DEFORMATION
ZNS DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZNS. THIS WOULD PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
THRU EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND NARROW
AXIS OF RH/LIFT WL KEEP SAT DRY ATTM.

SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS WL PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S...ESPECIALLY ON BY SUNDAY AFTN.
TEMPS WL START IN THE MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE U50S MTNS TO
L/M60S CPV/SLV...WITH LOW RH VALUES. A GREAT DAY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER/DEEPER MTN VALLEYS WL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD...AS PROGGED BY THE ECMWF. BY MONDAY INTO
TUES...LLVL WAA DEVELOPS AND TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY..DIFFICULT TAFS WITH CRNT OBS RANGING FROM
LIFR AT MPV IN FOG TO VFR CONDITIONS AT BTV/RUT/MSS. EXPECT FOG TO
CONTINUE THRU 07Z...BEFORE LIFTING AS MID LVL CLOUDS INCREASE AT
MPV. OTHERWISE...CRNT RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS ACRS WESTERN SLV...THIS PRECIP WL IMPACT SLK BY
07Z...PBG/BTV/RUT BTWN 08Z-10Z...AND THRU OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z
THIS MORNING. EXPECT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KNTS...HEAVY RAIN
WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY WITH A CHC OF IFR VIS/CIGS IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. RAP13 SOUNDINGS SHOW LOTS OF LLVL RH
REDEVELOPING AFT 09Z...FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE
INCLUDED A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT MPV/SLK/MSS...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT PBG/BTV. WINDS BEHIND LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SHIFT TO
A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING...WHICH WL HELP TO ENHANCE LLVL
CIGS AT MSS/BTV. MVFR/IFR CIGS WL CONT THRU 14Z...BEFORE SLOWLY
LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z. BEST INSTABILITY/SFC
HEATING FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTN WL BE AT
SLK/RUT/MPV. MORE FOG/BR AND LOW CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LLVL
MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...BEFORE SFC HIGH PRES AND CLRING DEVELOPS BY THE
WEEKEND. VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210803
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
WON/T BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT TUESDAY...30-40 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET PER KTYX VAD
WIND PROFILE AT 0730Z CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOURCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MODERATELY STRONG 850MB WAA WILL BUILD EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS ALONG/NORTH OF E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY BNDRY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EWD THRU MID MORNING. ONCE THIS
INITIAL AREA OF ACTIVITY PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY (LATE
MORNING/AFTN) WILL SEE JUST A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS
WITH WEAK 700-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. IT APPEARS BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR SRN CWA...AND THIS IS WHERE 40-50
POPS AND CHANCE OF TSTMS IS MENTIONED. 30 POP WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS NWRN VT/NRN NY FOR THE AFTN HRS. GOOD
NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN TEMPS THIS AFTN. PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ACROSS NRN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND SHOULD TREND LIGHT NORTH ACROSS
NRN VT AND NELY AROUND 10 KTS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTN
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FRONTAL
ZONE/NORTH WINDS WILL LIKEWISE LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS THIS AFTN...ANOTHER REASON IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
TSTM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN WILL BE ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BRING A TOTAL OF 1-1.25" OF RAINFALL
TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS/SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER SURGE OF S-SW FLOW AT 850MB ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL
EVOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS....AND
THE SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD
SIDE...GENERALLY UPR 50S TO AROUND 60. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTM MENTION IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.

NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONTAL
ZONE RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS SLIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. PBL DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE INTO THE LOW
60S...AND WITH PARTIAL SUN CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. AGAIN...MARGINAL/WEAK FORCING IN PLAY SO WHILE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS LOW...ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA IS
POSSIBLE...LIKELY PEAKING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX IN THE MID-LATE
AFTN HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VALLEY HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE
UPR 70S TO AROUND 80.

POSITIVE TILT UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES SLOWLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY THURSDAY AFTN. DEEP-
LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ENSURE
MOISTURE/SOME INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AROUND 6 C/KM. WITH PEAK
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 70S ACROSS VT TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR
70F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES AS UPPER TROF
PASSES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE TROF
EVOLVES AND HOW FAST IT MOVES OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND
500 J/KG OR SO AND WILL DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER. WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER VALUES COULD CLIMB NEAR 1000 J/KG ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF BTV. IF THE INSTABILITY MATERIALIZES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-40 KTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +12C.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS WITH
850 TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z FRIDAY. COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NIGHT.

A COOL NW FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 0 WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH PLENTY OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND EVEN A CHANCE OF A SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY 35 TO 45.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY..DIFFICULT TAFS WITH CRNT OBS RANGING FROM
LIFR AT MPV IN FOG TO VFR CONDITIONS AT BTV/RUT/MSS. EXPECT FOG TO
CONTINUE THRU 07Z...BEFORE LIFTING AS MID LVL CLOUDS INCREASE AT
MPV. OTHERWISE...CRNT RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS ACRS WESTERN SLV...THIS PRECIP WL IMPACT SLK BY
07Z...PBG/BTV/RUT BTWN 08Z-10Z...AND THRU OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z
THIS MORNING. EXPECT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KNTS...HEAVY RAIN
WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY WITH A CHC OF IFR VIS/CIGS IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. RAP13 SOUNDINGS SHOW LOTS OF LLVL RH
REDEVELOPING AFT 09Z...FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE
INCLUDED A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT MPV/SLK/MSS...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT PBG/BTV. WINDS BEHIND LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SHIFT TO
A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING...WHICH WL HELP TO ENHANCE LLVL
CIGS AT MSS/BTV. MVFR/IFR CIGS WL CONT THRU 14Z...BEFORE SLOWLY
LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z. BEST INSTABILITY/SFC
HEATING FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTN WL BE AT
SLK/RUT/MPV. MORE FOG/BR AND LOW CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LLVL
MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...BEFORE SFC HIGH PRES AND CLRING DEVELOPS BY THE
WEEKEND. VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210547
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
147 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AMBLES ABOUT THE NORTH EAST....RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1251 AM EDT TUESDAY...ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS VCNTY OF LAKE ONTARIO IS MOVING EWD INTO
A REGION OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING...BUT IS ALSO BEING FED BY MOIST
LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW OF 40-45 KTS PER KTYX VAD WIND PROFILE AT
0445Z. WHILE IT/S TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATION...ACTIVITY IS
PROGRESSING EWD ALONG STATIONARY BNDRY WITH 850-700MB WAA EXPECTED
TO INCREASE EWD ACROSS NRN NY INTO NWRN VT 06-12Z TIME FRAME. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING EWD WITH
VALUES UP TO 600 J/KG INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VLY 09-12Z. LATEST RADAR
REFLECTIVITY ALSO INDICATES SCATTERED CELLULAR ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
NEAR WRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE PRE-
EXISTING CONVECTIVE LINE.

ABOVE FACTORS WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS NRN NY INTO
WRN VT NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WITH CHANCE OF TSTMS MENTIONED ACROSS
NRN NY AND SLIGHT CHANCE INTO WRN VT. COULD SEE A QUICK QUARTER TO
HALF INCH OF RAINFALL WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY ACTUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN MOVES EWD. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOVER IN THE MID-UPR
50S MOST SECTIONS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS BEING THE OUTLIER TAKES THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTN...WITH MOST GUIDANCE KEEPING IT OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. 925MB TEMPS DEPICT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
WELL...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NEK TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE
AREA SEEING 925MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN LIFTED INDICES OF -2 FOR
AT LEAST NRN NY AND SRN HALF OF VT. SOME CAPE AND TEMP LAPSE
RATES OF 6-7 C/KM COULD HELP TRIGGER A FEW TS TUESDAY AFTN.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH GEFS
SHOWING PWATS OF 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WELL DEPICTED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS WE
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND 925MB TEMPS INCREASE TO
UPPER TEENS...POSSIBLY LOW 20S ON WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW MOVES INTO
SERN ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SW FLOW...BRINGING IN MORE
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS LIFTED INDICES OF ZERO TO -4 SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMP LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SW JET INCREASES IN STRENGTH AT 30-40 KTS.

TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND NEARING 80 ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
DUE TO CLOUDS...IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES AS UPPER TROF
PASSES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE TROF
EVOLVES AND HOW FAST IT MOVES OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND
500 J/KG OR SO AND WILL DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER. WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER VALUES COULD CLIMB NEAR 1000 J/KG ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF BTV. IF THE INSTABILITY MATERIALIZES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-40 KTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +12C.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS WITH
850 TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z FRIDAY. COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NIGHT.

A COOL NW FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 0 WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH PLENTY OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND EVEN A CHANCE OF A SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY 35 TO 45.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY..DIFFICULT TAFS WITH CRNT OBS RANGING FROM
LIFR AT MPV IN FOG TO VFR CONDITIONS AT BTV/RUT/MSS. EXPECT FOG TO
CONTINUE THRU 07Z...BEFORE LIFTING AS MID LVL CLOUDS INCREASE AT
MPV. OTHERWISE...CRNT RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS ACRS WESTERN SLV...THIS PRECIP WL IMPACT SLK BY
07Z...PBG/BTV/RUT BTWN 08Z-10Z...AND THRU OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z
THIS MORNING. EXPECT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KNTS...HEAVY RAIN
WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY WITH A CHC OF IFR VIS/CIGS IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. RAP13 SOUNDINGS SHOW LOTS OF LLVL RH
REDEVELOPING AFT 09Z...FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE
INCLUDED A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT MPV/SLK/MSS...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT PBG/BTV. WINDS BEHIND LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SHIFT TO
A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING...WHICH WL HELP TO ENHANCE LLVL
CIGS AT MSS/BTV. MVFR/IFR CIGS WL CONT THRU 14Z...BEFORE SLOWLY
LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z. BEST INSTABILITY/SFC
HEATING FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTN WL BE AT
SLK/RUT/MPV. MORE FOG/BR AND LOW CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LLVL
MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...BEFORE SFC HIGH PRES AND CLRING DEVELOPS BY THE
WEEKEND. VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 210531
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON A TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING
STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 131 AM EDT...A MILD AND MUGGY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ARE STILL WELL INTO THE 60S....AND TDS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S ALL THE WAY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS WELL.
A SLOW MOVING SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA.

THE LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS TWO SEPARATE LINES OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND LAKE ONTARIO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED...DESPITE IT
BEING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DUE TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE. AS
THESE STORMS CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THEY SHOULD GRAZE OUR
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACK ZONES. WHILE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING ACROSS OUR AREA...ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND TO KEEP THE THUNDER RISK IN PLACE. WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND DECENT MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...THERES NO REASON TO THINK THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE STORMS...THEY
STILL MAY PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND PERHAPS
SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH. THEY SHOULD BE MOVING EAST INTO VT BY
AROUND DAYBREAK. FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH
MINS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A SFC WAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AS THE H500 RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STARTS OUT STATIONARY OVER THE
REGION BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES IN THE W/NW FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOCUSING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE GFS/NAM HINTING AT SOME
SBCAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE. THERE IS MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER 0-6 KM BULK /DEEP LAYER/ SHEAR IS
STRONGEST NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH 30 KTS OR LESS TO THE
SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IDEAL OFF THE NAM WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C/KM...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT SOME MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSER TO 6.5C/KM SOUTH AND WEST OF KALB IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
ARE OUT OF PHASE...BUT IF A CLUSTER OR COMPLEX GETS GOING WITH
THE WAVE THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SVR
THREAT. THE SEE TEXT FROM SPC LOOKS REASONABLE. THE UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES WOULD INDICATE LESS OF A HAIL THREAT...AND A GREATER
ISOLD WIND THREAT WITH PERHAPS SOME BOWING SEGMENTS. WILL MENTION
AN ISOLD THREAT IN THE HWO. THE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE CHC CATEGORY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIKELY VALUES OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THE OTHER INHIBITOR FOR ANY STRONGER TO ISOLD SVR TSRAS WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST CHC OF SUNSHINE
APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF CAPITAL REGION WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPS FORECASTED WITH H850 TEMPS OF +15C TO +16C. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO M80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE U60S TO
M70S...WITH MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

TUE NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
THEN THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE
BETTER THERMAL GRADIENT...AND THE LOW-LEVEL SFC-H850 BAROCLINIC
ZONE SETS UP OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR
SHOWERS AND A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES
AFTER 06Z WITH SHOWALTER VALUES IN THE 0 TO -2C RANGE ON THE NAM.
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE M50S TO M60S.
THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE HSA.

WED-WED NIGHT...OUR FCST REFLECTS A LITTLE LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST NAM DURING THE
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NRN EXTREME...AND A
SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS. HENCE...WE ARE BUYING INTO THE
FCST AREA BUSTING BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE BOUNDARY NEAR
NRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS RISE FURTHER TO +15C TO +17C
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SW WINDS
SETTING UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECASTED SOME MID AND EVEN
SPOTTY U80S IN THE VALLEYS /ESPECIALLY NEAR KPOU/...WITH U70S TO
L80S OVER TH HILLS AND MTNS. ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WRN ZONES. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE 1.25-1.67" RANGE...A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOME HEAVY BURSTS OF RAINFALL. SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE HSA.

OVERNIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW CLOSE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GETS TOWARDS THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NRN
TIER OF THE FCST AREA BTWN 06Z-12Z. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE MODEL RUNS. FOR NOW...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN USED
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH
CHANCE VALUES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE
STICKIEST OF THE STRETCH WITH LOWER TO M60S EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT
SOME U50S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS AND SRN DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE START EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE SOUTHEAST OF FA FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS WAVE MAY KEEP
SHOWERS GOING ON FRIDAY. THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT
COOL.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WHICH MAY
TAPER CONVECTION SOME ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUITE A FEW FAVORABLE
FACTORS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MLMUCAPES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT REACH 1500-2500 J/KG WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES 60-120 M2/S2 WHILE
UPPER LEVEL JET REACHES 75-90 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF FA PLACING OUR
AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THUS GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COASTAL LOW MOVES
QUICKLY DEPARTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
70.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BUT CHILLY NIGHTS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A
WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NY. SOME FOG HAS FORMED AT KPSF
AND ACKNOWLEDGING IFR FOG TEMPORARILY MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z AT
KPSF. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO IS
MOVING EAST...AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION IS NEAR
KSYR. THERE IS A GUST FRONT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING
AT AROUND 35 KT...BUT BASED ON THE STEERING FLOW SEEN ON RADARS
ACROSS THE REGION...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MAINLY TRACK DUE EAST.

AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TO
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN NY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IT IS TIMED TO REACH THE HUDSON
VALLEY AROUND 09Z...AND WITH CONTINUED STABILIZING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND WEAKENING OF THE
CONVECTION...JUST INDICATING VCSH AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE KGFL BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WILL AMEND TAFS AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IF RADAR SUGGESTS STRENGTH OF CONVECTION AND MOVEMENT
CONTINUES.

OUTSIDE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AND SOME SCATTERED VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. ONCE WHATEVER RAIN TRACKS EAST OF THE
REGION...BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET TEMPORARILY SCATTERED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...BUT NO REAL
ORGANIZED FOCUS SO LEAVING OUT ANY VCSH FOR NOW...BUT MAY BE ADDED
IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES TODAY ONCE THE CHARACTER OF CONVECTION IS
KNOWN WHEN IT FORMS.

WINDS SHOULD BE NEARLY CAL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KALB AND KGFL -SHRA LIKELY WITH CHC TSRA.
AT KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
LOWER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT
RECOVERY WITH RH VALUES INCREASING TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH
THE MID WEEK IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD /TUE NIGHT THRU THU/. THE
NERFC QPF WAS USED PRIOR TO THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210501
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
101 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AMBLES ABOUT THE NORTH EAST....RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1251 AM EDT TUESDAY...ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS VCNTY OF LAKE ONTARIO IS MOVING EWD INTO
A REGION OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING...BUT IS ALSO BEING FED BY MOIST
LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW OF 40-45 KTS PER KTYX VAD WIND PROFILE AT
0445Z. WHILE IT/S TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATION...ACTIVITY IS
PROGRESSING EWD ALONG STATIONARY BNDRY WITH 850-700MB WAA EXPECTED
TO INCREASE EWD ACROSS NRN NY INTO NWRN VT 06-12Z TIME FRAME. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING EWD WITH
VALUES UP TO 600 J/KG INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VLY 09-12Z. LATEST RADAR
REFLECTIVITY ALSO INDICATES SCATTERED CELLULAR ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
NEAR WRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE PRE-
EXISTING CONVECTIVE LINE.

ABOVE FACTORS WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS NRN NY INTO
WRN VT NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WITH CHANCE OF TSTMS MENTIONED ACROSS
NRN NY AND SLIGHT CHANCE INTO WRN VT. COULD SEE A QUICK QUARTER TO
HALF INCH OF RAINFALL WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY ACTUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN MOVES EWD. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOVER IN THE MID-UPR
50S MOST SECTIONS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS BEING THE OUTLIER TAKES THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTN...WITH MOST GUIDANCE KEEPING IT OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. 925MB TEMPS DEPICT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
WELL...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NEK TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE
AREA SEEING 925MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN LIFTED INDICES OF -2 FOR
AT LEAST NRN NY AND SRN HALF OF VT. SOME CAPE AND TEMP LAPSE
RATES OF 6-7 C/KM COULD HELP TRIGGER A FEW TS TUESDAY AFTN.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH GEFS
SHOWING PWATS OF 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WELL DEPICTED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS WE
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND 925MB TEMPS INCREASE TO
UPPER TEENS...POSSIBLY LOW 20S ON WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW MOVES INTO
SERN ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SW FLOW...BRINGING IN MORE
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS LIFTED INDICES OF ZERO TO -4 SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMP LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SW JET INCREASES IN STRENGTH AT 30-40 KTS.

TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND NEARING 80 ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
DUE TO CLOUDS...IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES AS UPPER TROF
PASSES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE TROF
EVOLVES AND HOW FAST IT MOVES OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND
500 J/KG OR SO AND WILL DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER. WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER VALUES COULD CLIMB NEAR 1000 J/KG ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF BTV. IF THE INSTABILITY MATERIALIZES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-40 KTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +12C.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS WITH
850 TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z FRIDAY. COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NIGHT.

A COOL NW FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 0 WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH PLENTY OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND EVEN A CHANCE OF A SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY 35 TO 45.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A TREND FROM VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 04Z AND 14Z. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE LATER TONIGHT AND
DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AFTER 08Z. THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUE PM...WARM FRONT BRINGS MVFR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH
BRIEF IFR. WED- THU...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. THU NIGHT INTO FRI/SAT...MAINLY VFR AS DRY NWLY WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SISSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 210250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE FCST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE U50S TO M60S OVERNIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVING EASTWARD AS A WEAK
WAVE/LOW MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST. HAVE KEPT PATCHY FOG IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATUS
MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH A LIGHT S/SE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALY.

LOWS TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMER METMOS TEMPS WERE
ACCEPTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SARATOGA REGION...BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND
MID AND U50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A SFC WAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AS THE H500 RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STARTS OUT STATIONARY OVER THE
REGION BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES IN THE W/NW FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOCUSING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE GFS/NAM HINTING AT SOME
SBCAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE. THERE IS MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER 0-6 KM BULK /DEEP LAYER/ SHEAR IS
STRONGEST NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH 30 KTS OR LESS TO THE
SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IDEAL OFF THE NAM WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C/KM...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT SOME MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSER TO 6.5C/KM SOUTH AND WEST OF KALB IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
ARE OUT OF PHASE...BUT IF A CLUSTER OR COMPLEX GETS GOING WITH
THE WAVE THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SVR
THREAT. THE SEE TEXT FROM SPC LOOKS REASONABLE. THE UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES WOULD INDICATE LESS OF A HAIL THREAT...AND A GREATER
ISOLD WIND THREAT WITH PERHAPS SOME BOWING SEGMENTS. WILL MENTION
AN ISOLD THREAT IN THE HWO. THE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE CHC CATEGORY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIKELY VALUES OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THE OTHER INHIBITOR FOR ANY STRONGER TO ISOLD SVR TSRAS WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST CHC OF SUNSHINE
APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF CAPITAL REGION WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPS FORECASTED WITH H850 TEMPS OF +15C TO +16C. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO M80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE U60S TO
M70S...WITH MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

TUE NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
THEN THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE
BETTER THERMAL GRADIENT...AND THE LOW-LEVEL SFC-H850 BAROCLINIC
ZONE SETS UP OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR
SHOWERS AND A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES
AFTER 06Z WITH SHOWALTER VALUES IN THE 0 TO -2C RANGE ON THE NAM.
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE M50S TO M60S.
THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE HSA.

WED-WED NIGHT...OUR FCST REFLECTS A LITTLE LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST NAM DURING THE
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NRN EXTREME...AND A
SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS. HENCE...WE ARE BUYING INTO THE
FCST AREA BUSTING BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE BOUNDARY NEAR
NRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS RISE FURTHER TO +15C TO +17C
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SW WINDS
SETTING UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECASTED SOME MID AND EVEN
SPOTTY U80S IN THE VALLEYS /ESPECIALLY NEAR KPOU/...WITH U70S TO
L80S OVER TH HILLS AND MTNS. ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WRN ZONES. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE 1.25-1.67" RANGE...A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOME HEAVY BURSTS OF RAINFALL. SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE HSA.

OVERNIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW CLOSE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GETS TOWARDS THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NRN
TIER OF THE FCST AREA BTWN 06Z-12Z. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE MODEL RUNS. FOR NOW...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN USED
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH
CHANCE VALUES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE
STICKIEST OF THE STRETCH WITH LOWER TO M60S EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT
SOME U50S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS AND SRN DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE START EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE SOUTHEAST OF FA FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS WAVE MAY KEEP
SHOWERS GOING ON FRIDAY. THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT
COOL.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WHICH MAY
TAPER CONVECTION SOME ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUITE A FEW FAVORABLE
FACTORS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MLMUCAPES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT REACH 1500-2500 J/KG WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES 60-120 M2/S2 WHILE
UPPER LEVEL JET REACHES 75-90 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF FA PLACING OUR
AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THUS GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COASTAL LOW MOVES
QUICKLY DEPARTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
70.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BUT CHILLY NIGHTS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH THE LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
ALSO STRATUS SHOULD FORM WITH A LIGHT S/SE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT DUE TO
FOG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF DUE TO FOG AND
CIGS WITH MVFR AT KALB AND KGFL DUE TO FOG AND CIGS. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE/LOW WILL ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOCUSING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KALB AND KGFL -SHRA LIKELY WITH CHC TSRA.
AT KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFER. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
LOWER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT
RECOVERY WITH RH VALUES INCREASING TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH
THE MID WEEK IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD /TUE NIGHT THRU THU/. THE
NERFC QPF WAS USED PRIOR TO THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210208
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1008 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AMBLES ABOUT THE NORTH EAST....RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1008 PM EDT MONDAY...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE
WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO REQUIRED SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LARGE STRATIFORM AREA BEHIND THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGEST CORES SUGGESTS SOME ORGANIZATION TO
THE ACTIVITY. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CLUSTER ESPECIALLY THE BTV12 AND THE HRRR WHICH SHOW SOME
WEAKENING TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES EAST. SO EXPECT
SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...THOUGH PRESENCE
OF MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 DEGREES C/KM PER 00Z BUF/ALB
RAOB SOUNDINGS AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AS IT MOVES EAST. LEADING EDGE OF THIS
CLUSTER PROJECTED TO ENTER INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AFTER
05Z. THEREFORE...HAVE MENTIONED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS VERMONT. HAVE ALSO
RAISED LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS BEING THE OUTLIER TAKES THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTN...WITH MOST GUIDANCE KEEPING IT OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. 925MB TEMPS DEPICT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
WELL...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NEK TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE
AREA SEEING 925MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN LIFTED INDICES OF -2 FOR
AT LEAST NRN NY AND SRN HALF OF VT. SOME CAPE AND TEMP LAPSE
RATES OF 6-7 C/KM COULD HELP TRIGGER A FEW TS TUESDAY AFTN.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH GEFS
SHOWING PWATS OF 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WELL DEPICTED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS WE
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND 925MB TEMPS INCREASE TO
UPPER TEENS...POSSIBLY LOW 20S ON WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW MOVES INTO
SERN ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SW FLOW...BRINGING IN MORE
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS LIFTED INDICES OF ZERO TO -4 SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMP LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SW JET INCREASES IN STRENGTH AT 30-40 KTS.

TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND NEARING 80 ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
DUE TO CLOUDS...IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES AS UPPER TROF
PASSES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE TROF
EVOLVES AND HOW FAST IT MOVES OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND
500 J/KG OR SO AND WILL DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER. WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER VALUES COULD CLIMB NEAR 1000 J/KG ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF BTV. IF THE INSTABILITY MATERIALIZES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-40 KTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +12C.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS WITH
850 TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z FRIDAY. COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NIGHT.

A COOL NW FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 0 WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH PLENTY OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND EVEN A CHANCE OF A SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY 35 TO 45.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A TREND FROM VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 04Z AND 14Z. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE LATER TONIGHT AND
DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AFTER 08Z. THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUE PM...WARM FRONT BRINGS MVFR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH
BRIEF IFR. WED- THU...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. THU NIGHT INTO FRI/SAT...MAINLY VFR AS DRY NWLY WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SISSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 210036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
836 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. THE FCST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE
U50S TO M60S OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH A LIGHT S/SE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALY.

LOWS TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD TONIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMER METMOS TEMPS WERE ACCEPTED
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA REGION...BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MID AND U50S TO
THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A SFC WAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AS THE H500 RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STARTS OUT STATIONARY OVER THE
REGION BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES IN THE W/NW FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOCUSING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE GFS/NAM HINTING AT SOME
SBCAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE. THERE IS MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER 0-6 KM BULK /DEEP LAYER/ SHEAR IS
STRONGEST NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH 30 KTS OR LESS TO THE
SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IDEAL OFF THE NAM WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C/KM...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT SOME MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSER TO 6.5C/KM SOUTH AND WEST OF KALB IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
ARE OUT OF PHASE...BUT IF A CLUSTER OR COMPLEX GETS GOING WITH
THE WAVE THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SVR
THREAT. THE SEE TEXT FROM SPC LOOKS REASONABLE. THE UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES WOULD INDICATE LESS OF A HAIL THREAT...AND A GREATER
ISOLD WIND THREAT WITH PERHAPS SOME BOWING SEGMENTS. WILL MENTION
AN ISOLD THREAT IN THE HWO. THE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE CHC CATEGORY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIKELY VALUES OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THE OTHER INHIBITOR FOR ANY STRONGER TO ISOLD SVR TSRAS WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST CHC OF SUNSHINE
APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF CAPITAL REGION WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPS FORECASTED WITH H850 TEMPS OF +15C TO +16C. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO M80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE U60S TO
M70S...WITH MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

TUE NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
THEN THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE
BETTER THERMAL GRADIENT...AND THE LOW-LEVEL SFC-H850 BAROCLINIC
ZONE SETS UP OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR
SHOWERS AND A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES
AFTER 06Z WITH SHOWALTER VALUES IN THE 0 TO -2C RANGE ON THE NAM.
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE M50S TO M60S.
THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE HSA.

WED-WED NIGHT...OUR FCST REFLECTS A LITTLE LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST NAM DURING THE
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NRN EXTREME...AND A
SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS. HENCE...WE ARE BUYING INTO THE
FCST AREA BUSTING BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE BOUNDARY NEAR
NRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS RISE FURTHER TO +15C TO +17C
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SW WINDS
SETTING UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECASTED SOME MID AND EVEN
SPOTTY U80S IN THE VALLEYS /ESPECIALLY NEAR KPOU/...WITH U70S TO
L80S OVER TH HILLS AND MTNS. ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WRN ZONES. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE 1.25-1.67" RANGE...A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOME HEAVY BURSTS OF RAINFALL. SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE HSA.

OVERNIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW CLOSE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GETS TOWARDS THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NRN
TIER OF THE FCST AREA BTWN 06Z-12Z. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE MODEL RUNS. FOR NOW...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN USED
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH
CHANCE VALUES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE
STICKIEST OF THE STRETCH WITH LOWER TO M60S EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT
SOME U50S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS AND SRN DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE START EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE SOUTHEAST OF FA FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS WAVE MAY KEEP
SHOWERS GOING ON FRIDAY. THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT
COOL.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WHICH MAY
TAPER CONVECTION SOME ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUITE A FEW FAVORABLE
FACTORS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MLMUCAPES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT REACH 1500-2500 J/KG WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES 60-120 M2/S2 WHILE
UPPER LEVEL JET REACHES 75-90 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF FA PLACING OUR
AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THUS GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COASTAL LOW MOVES
QUICKLY DEPARTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
70.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BUT CHILLY NIGHTS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH THE LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
ALSO STRATUS SHOULD FORM WITH A LIGHT S/SE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT DUE TO
FOG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF DUE TO FOG AND
CIGS WITH MVFR AT KALB AND KGFL DUE TO FOG AND CIGS. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE/LOW WILL ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOCUSING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KALB AND KGFL -SHRA LIKELY WITH CHC TSRA.
AT KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFER. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
LOWER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT
RECOVERY WITH RH VALUES INCREASING TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH
THE MID WEEK IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD /TUE NIGHT THRU THU/. THE
NERFC QPF WAS USED PRIOR TO THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 202354
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
754 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AMBLES ABOUT THE NORTH EAST....RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 702 PM EDT MONDAY...WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL BE WATCHING ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR POTENTIAL THAT THEY MAY SPREAD
INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS ON THE EXTREME NORTHERN EDGE OF BETTER INSTABILITY CENTERED
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK AND THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWALTER INDICES
ARE PROJECTED TO DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT OVERNIGHT WHICH OFFERS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IN THESE AREAS. HAVEN`T MENTIONED THUNDER IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...HAVE
JUST MATCHED WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA AS REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS BEING THE OUTLIER TAKES THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTN...WITH MOST GUIDANCE KEEPING IT OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. 925MB TEMPS DEPICT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
WELL...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NEK TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE
AREA SEEING 925MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN LIFTED INDICES OF -2 FOR
AT LEAST NRN NY AND SRN HALF OF VT. SOME CAPE AND TEMP LAPSE
RATES OF 6-7 C/KM COULD HELP TRIGGER A FEW TS TUESDAY AFTN.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH GEFS
SHOWING PWATS OF 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WELL DEPICTED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS WE
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND 925MB TEMPS INCREASE TO
UPPER TEENS...POSSIBLY LOW 20S ON WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW MOVES INTO
SERN ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SW FLOW...BRINGING IN MORE
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS LIFTED INDICES OF ZERO TO -4 SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMP LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SW JET INCREASES IN STRENGTH AT 30-40 KTS.

TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND NEARING 80 ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
DUE TO CLOUDS...IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES AS UPPER TROF
PASSES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE TROF
EVOLVES AND HOW FAST IT MOVES OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND
500 J/KG OR SO AND WILL DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER. WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER VALUES COULD CLIMB NEAR 1000 J/KG ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF BTV. IF THE INSTABILITY MATERIALIZES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-40 KTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +12C.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS WITH
850 TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z FRIDAY. COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NIGHT.

A COOL NW FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 0 WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH PLENTY OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND EVEN A CHANCE OF A SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY 35 TO 45.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A TREND FROM VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 04Z AND 14Z. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE LATER TONIGHT AND
DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AFTER 08Z. THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUE PM...WARM FRONT BRINGS MVFR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH
BRIEF IFR. WED- THU...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. THU NIGHT INTO FRI/SAT...MAINLY VFR AS DRY NWLY WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SISSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 202302
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
702 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AMBLES ABOUT THE NORTH EAST....RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 702 PM EDT MONDAY...WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL BE WATCHING ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR POTENTIAL THAT THEY MAY SPREAD
INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS ON THE EXTREME NORTHERN EDGE OF BETTER INSTABILITY CENTERED
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK AND THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWALTER INDICES
ARE PROJECTED TO DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT OVERNIGHT WHICH OFFERS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IN THESE AREAS. HAVEN`T MENTIONED THUNDER IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...HAVE
JUST MATCHED WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA AS REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS BEING THE OUTLIER TAKES THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTN...WITH MOST GUIDANCE KEEPING IT OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. 925MB TEMPS DEPICT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
WELL...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NEK TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE
AREA SEEING 925MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN LIFTED INDICES OF -2 FOR
AT LEAST NRN NY AND SRN HALF OF VT. SOME CAPE AND TEMP LAPSE
RATES OF 6-7 C/KM COULD HELP TRIGGER A FEW TS TUESDAY AFTN.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH GEFS
SHOWING PWATS OF 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WELL DEPICTED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS WE
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND 925MB TEMPS INCREASE TO
UPPER TEENS...POSSIBLY LOW 20S ON WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW MOVES INTO
SERN ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SW FLOW...BRINGING IN MORE
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS LIFTED INDICES OF ZERO TO -4 SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMP LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SW JET INCREASES IN STRENGTH AT 30-40 KTS.

TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND NEARING 80 ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
DUE TO CLOUDS...IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES AS UPPER TROF
PASSES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE TROF
EVOLVES AND HOW FAST IT MOVES OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND
500 J/KG OR SO AND WILL DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER. WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER VALUES COULD CLIMB NEAR 1000 J/KG ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF BTV. IF THE INSTABILITY MATERIALIZES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-40 KTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +12C.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS WITH
850 TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z FRIDAY. COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NIGHT.

A COOL NW FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 0 WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH PLENTY OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND EVEN A CHANCE OF A SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY 35 TO 45.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BREAKS OF VFR
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR SOME IFR
RETURNS EARLY TOMORROW ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS AND MIST.

SOME INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM KSLK TO
KRUT COULD POP A SHOWER MOVING FROM NW TO SE, COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
ISLD -TSRA.

GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MIST POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TOWARD EARLY MORNING WITH MVFR LCL IFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TUE MORNING AS
FRONTAL SYSTEM BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUE PM...WARM FRONT BRINGS MVFR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH
BRIEF IFR.
WED-THU...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT INTO FRI/SAT...MAINLY VFR AS DRY NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 202030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A WARM SECTOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH LITTLE OR NO SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AN ISOLATED THREAT WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT DIPPING S/SE FROM THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY OVER NRN NY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY SETTLE JUST
NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND
THE H500 RIDGE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST MAY
TRIGGER A FEW MORE SHOWERS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT...AGAIN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION WILL HAVE
THE GREATEST SHOT FOR A SHOWER.

THE FCST AREA SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S TO L60S. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WHERE PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. THE FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE ENTIRE FCST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE LIGHT S/SE FLOW IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALY.

LOWS TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...AND THE WARMER METMOS TEMPS
WERE ACCEPTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SARATOGA REGION...BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND
MID AND U50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A SFC WAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AS THE H500 RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STARTS OUT STATIONARY OVER THE
REGION BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES IN THE W/NW FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOCUSING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE GFS/NAM HINTING AT SOME
SBCAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE. THERE IS MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER 0-6 KM BULK /DEEP LAYER/ SHEAR IS
STRONGEST NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH 30 KTS OR LESS TO THE
SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IDEAL OFF THE NAM WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C/KM...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT SOME MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSER TO 6.5C/KM SOUTH AND WEST OF KALB IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
ARE OUT OF PHASE...BUT IF A CLUSTER OR COMPLEX GETS GOING WITH
THE WAVE THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SVR
THREAT. THE SEE TEXT FROM SPC LOOKS REASONABLE. THE UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES WOULD INDICATE LESS OF A HAIL THREAT...AND A GREATER
ISOLD WIND THREAT WITH PERHAPS SOME BOWING SEGMENTS. WILL MENTION
AN ISOLD THREAT IN THE HWO. THE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE CHC CATEGORY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIKELY VALUES OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THE OTHER INHIBITOR FOR ANY STRONGER TO ISOLD SVR TSRAS WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST CHC OF SUNSHINE
APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF CAPITAL REGION WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPS FORECASTED WITH H850 TEMPS OF +15C TO +16C. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO M80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE U60S TO
M70S...WITH MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

TUE NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
THEN THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE
BETTER THERMAL GRADIENT...AND THE LOW-LEVEL SFC-H850 BAROCLINIC
ZONE SETS UP OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR
SHOWERS AND A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES
AFTER 06Z WITH SHOWALTER VALUES IN THE 0 TO -2C RANGE ON THE NAM.
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE M50S TO M60S.
THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE HSA.

WED-WED NIGHT...OUR FCST REFLECTS A LITTLE LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST NAM DURING THE
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NRN EXTREME...AND A
SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS. HENCE...WE ARE BUYING INTO THE
FCST AREA BUSTING BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE BOUNDARY NEAR
NRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS RISE FURTHER TO +15C TO +17C
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SW WINDS
SETTING UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECASTED SOME MID AND EVEN
SPOTTY U80S IN THE VALLEYS /ESPECIALLY NEAR KPOU/...WITH U70S TO
L80S OVER TH HILLS AND MTNS. ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WRN ZONES. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE 1.25-1.67" RANGE...A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOME HEAVY BURSTS OF RAINFALL. SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE HSA.

OVERNIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW CLOSE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GETS TOWARDS THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NRN
TIER OF THE FCST AREA BTWN 06Z-12Z. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE MODEL RUNS. FOR NOW...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN USED
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH
CHANCE VALUES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE
STICKIEST OF THE STRETCH WITH LOWER TO M60S EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT
SOME U50S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS AND SRN DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE START EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE SOUTHEAST OF FA FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS WAVE MAY KEEP
SHOWERS GOING ON FRIDAY. THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT
COOL.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WHICH MAY
TAPER CONVECTION SOME ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUITE A FEW FAVORABLE
FACTORS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MLMUCAPES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT REACH 1500-2500 J/KG WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES 60-120 M2/S2 WHILE
UPPER LEVEL JET REACHES 75-90 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF FA PLACING OUR
AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THUS GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COASTAL LOW MOVES
QUICKLY DEPARTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
70.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BUT CHILLY NIGHTS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS...CLOUD COVER IS
DIMINISHING AT KALB/KPOU. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WILL STALL AND BECOME STATIONARY
OVER THE REGION AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVERAGE
TO INCREASE AT ALL TAF SITES HOWEVER VSBYS AND CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN VFR CONDITIONS. AS WE GO PAST 12Z TUESDAY...MODELS
ARE SHOWING A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT WITH VCSH CONDITIONS AT KPSF/KPOU AND HIGHER SHOWER
CHANCES WITH -SHRA CONDITIONS AT KALB/KGFL AS WE WORK TOWARD THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 00Z SUNDAY THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND AS WE GO PAST 12Z TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI AM...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
FRI PM-SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
LOWER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT
RECOVERY WITH RH VALUES INCREASING TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH
THE MID WEEK IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD /TUE NIGHT THRU THU/. THE
NERFC QPF WAS USED PRIOR TO THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...LFM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 202026
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
426 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AMBLES ABOUT THE NORTH EAST....RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL
SEE MILD TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE
REGION WITH DEWPTS IN THE 40S AND 50S. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT...SPREADING
FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND
MORE VORTICITY MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY
BY TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS BEING THE OUTLIER TAKES THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTN...WITH MOST GUIDANCE KEEPING IT OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. 925MB TEMPS DEPICT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
WELL...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NEK TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE
AREA SEEING 925MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN LIFTED INDICES OF -2 FOR
AT LEAST NRN NY AND SRN HALF OF VT. SOME CAPE AND TEMP LAPSE
RATES OF 6-7 C/KM COULD HELP TRIGGER A FEW TS TUESDAY AFTN.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH GEFS
SHOWING PWATS OF 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WELL DEPICTED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS WE
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND 925MB TEMPS INCREASE TO
UPPER TEENS...POSSIBLY LOW 20S ON WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW MOVES INTO
SERN ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SW FLOW...BRINGING IN MORE
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS LIFTED INDICES OF ZERO TO -4 SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMP LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SW JET INCREASES IN STRENGTH AT 30-40 KTS.

TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND NEARING 80 ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
DUE TO CLOUDS...IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES AS UPPER TROF
PASSES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE TROF
EVOLVES AND HOW FAST IT MOVES OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND
500 J/KG OR SO AND WILL DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER. WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER VALUES COULD CLIMB NEAR 1000 J/KG ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF BTV. IF THE INSTABILITY MATERIALIZES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-40 KTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +12C.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS WITH
850 TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z FRIDAY. COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NIGHT.

A COOL NW FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 0 WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH PLENTY OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND EVEN A CHANCE OF A SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY 35 TO 45.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BREAKS OF VFR
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR SOME IFR
RETURNS EARLY TOMORROW ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS AND MIST.

SOME INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM KSLK TO
KRUT COULD POP A SHOWER MOVING FROM NW TO SE, COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
ISLD -TSRA.

GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MIST POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TOWARD EARLY MORNING WITH MVFR LCL IFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TUE MORNING AS
FRONTAL SYSTEM BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUE PM...WARM FRONT BRINGS MVFR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH
BRIEF IFR.
WED-THU...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT INTO FRI/SAT...MAINLY VFR AS DRY NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 201955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AMBLES ABOUT THE NORTH EAST....RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL
SEE MILD TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE
REGION WITH DEWPTS IN THE 40S AND 50S. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT...SPREADING
FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND
MORE VORTICITY MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY
BY TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS BEING THE OUTLIER TAKES THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTN...WITH MOST GUIDANCE KEEPING IT OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. 925MB TEMPS DEPICT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
WELL...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NEK TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE
AREA SEEING 925MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN LIFTED INDICES OF -2 FOR
AT LEAST NRN NY AND SRN HALF OF VT. SOME CAPE AND TEMP LAPSE
RATES OF 6-7 C/KM COULD HELP TRIGGER A FEW TS TUESDAY AFTN.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH GEFS
SHOWING PWATS OF 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WELL DEPICTED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS WE
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND 925MB TEMPS INCREASE TO
UPPER TEENS...POSSIBLY LOW 20S ON WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW MOVES INTO
SERN ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SW FLOW...BRINGING IN MORE
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS LIFTED INDICES OF ZERO TO -4 SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMP LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SW JET INCREASES IN STRENGTH AT 30-40 KTS.

TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND NEARING 80 ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
DUE TO CLOUDS...IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
ACTIVE AS POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SERN ONTARIO ALONG MODERATELY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING WSW-
ENE JUST NORTH OF OUR INTL BORDER. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION THRU THE
EXTENDED IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE
00Z ECMWF JUST A BIT FASTER.

NORTH COUNTRY BEGINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SFC
LOW TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER. SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO
LOWER 60S. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN VT AND NRN
NY WHERE POPS ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. LOWER POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT
FURTHER REMOVED FROM PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT...AND SFC LOW TRACKS EWD INTO
NH/MAINE. 00Z GFS MODEL INDICATES AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUPPORTS AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY...SO
CARRIED A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF
FRONTAL BNDRY BASED ON PRESENT INDICATIONS. GRADUALLY CLEARING
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN WET
CONDITIONS TUE-THU AND RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING N-NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS 65-70F. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN
CONTROL AS IT DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY DRY WX
CONDITIONS THRU NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW
BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY AFTN OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN/NERN VT. DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF PRECIP AMTS WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN
EXPECTED DRYNESS OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 60S. PROSPECT FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
SHOULD BRING LOWS LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT LOCALLY DOWN
TO 35F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BREAKS OF VFR
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR SOME IFR
RETURNS EARLY TOMORROW ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS AND MIST.

SOME INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM KSLK TO
KRUT COULD POP A SHOWER MOVING FROM NW TO SE, COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
ISLD -TSRA.

GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MIST POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TOWARD EARLY MORNING WITH MVFR LCL IFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TUE MORNING AS
FRONTAL SYSTEM BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUE PM...WARM FRONT BRINGS MVFR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH
BRIEF IFR.
WED-THU...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT INTO FRI/SAT...MAINLY VFR AS DRY NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 201801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
201 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ANTICIPATED WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS EXIT THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN RETURN BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 123 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUD CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH BREAKS IN THE LEE OR EAST SIDE OF ADKS
AND SRN GREENS. BREAKS LIKELY TO INCREASE GRADUALLY...BUT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE OVERALL
PICTURE THIS AFTN. FEW BREAKS IN SRN ZONES COULD LEAD TO LGT RAIN
SHOWERS W/ISLD TS AS COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THE FA. HAVE
INCLUDED SLGT CHC -SHRA AND TS OVER SRN ZONES THRU EARLY EVENING
HRS. OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL DEALING WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA HAS STALLED
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...OVERALL LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THINS SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE AS
SKIES BECOME PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. STILL A CHANCE FOR A COUPLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF
CAPE...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOUDY AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS APPROACHES. IT WILL BE QUITE A MILD NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER CONTRIBUTING TO LOWS ONLY IN THE
50S TO LOCALLY 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN BEGINS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE BTV CWA AND INTO NH AND MAINE. EXPECTED TO SEE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASING TO OVER
1000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
ACTIVE AS POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SERN ONTARIO ALONG MODERATELY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING WSW-
ENE JUST NORTH OF OUR INTL BORDER. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION THRU THE
EXTENDED IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE
00Z ECMWF JUST A BIT FASTER.

NORTH COUNTRY BEGINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SFC
LOW TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER. SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO
LOWER 60S. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN VT AND NRN
NY WHERE POPS ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. LOWER POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT
FURTHER REMOVED FROM PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT...AND SFC LOW TRACKS EWD INTO
NH/MAINE. 00Z GFS MODEL INDICATES AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUPPORTS AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY ... SO
CARRIED A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF
FRONTAL BNDRY BASED ON PRESENT INDICATIONS. GRADUALLY CLEARING
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN WET
CONDITIONS TUE-THU AND RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING N-NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS 65-70F. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN
CONTROL AS IT DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY DRY WX
CONDITIONS THRU NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW
BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY AFTN OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN/NERN VT. DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF PRECIP AMTS WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN
EXPECTED DRYNESS OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 60S. PROSPECT FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
SHOULD BRING LOWS LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT LOCALLY DOWN
TO 35F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BREAKS OF VFR
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR SOME IFR
RETURNS EARLY TOMORROW ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS AND MIST.

SOME INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM KSLK TO
KRUT COULD POP A SHOWER MOVING FROM NW TO SE, COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
ISLD -TSRA.

GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MIST POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TOWARD EARLY MORNING WITH MVFR LCL IFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TUE MORNING AS
FRONTAL SYSTEM BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUE PM...WARM FRONT BRINGS MVFR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH
BRIEF IFR.
WED-THU...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT INTO FRI/SAT...MAINLY VFR AS DRY NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 201733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH CONTINUED SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40 SHOWS H500 RIDGE CONTINUING
TO BUILD INTO NORTHEAST...WITH WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICES ROTATING
AROUND THE RIM OF THE RIDGE IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT. NO REAL STRONG
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. HAVE REMOVED ALL THE POPS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION PRIOR TO 22Z...AND KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHC CLOSER TO
EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT...MORE LIKE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS PM.

THE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED THE MOST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH
SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.
DRASTIC CHANGES TO SKYCOVER BASED ON THE SATELLITE TRENDS WITH
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT OVER
THE SRN DACKS REGION...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREENS.

EXPECTING MAX TEMPS IN THE M70S TO U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SOME
L80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. M60S TO M70S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH WITH DEWPTS IN
THE M50S TO L60S ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD...AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS VERY SLOWLY BEGINS
TO SPIN EASTWARD.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN STALLED OR VERY
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. MOST OF OUR AREA LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESP FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD...WHERE LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUES/WED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY...WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING CLOSE TO THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHC LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS
OUR AREA...AND AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SO FAR TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE AN ORGANIZED THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COULD ALLOW FOR ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORM TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY CURRENTLY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST...AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.  THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE MAY CUT OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN TWO PIECES.  ONE
PIECE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT. THE SECOND PIECE SHOULD BE MORE OF A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRYER AIR IN WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW...TRACKING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON... WITH LESS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

SO...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND JUST A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXIT LAST.  COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SO...HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S...AROUND 60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...AROUND
60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS...CLOUD COVER IS
DIMINISHING AT KALB/KPOU. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WILL STALL AND BECOME STATIONARY
OVER THE REGION AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVERAGE
TO INCREASE AT ALL TAF SITES HOWEVER VSBYS AND CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN VFR CONDITIONS. AS WE GO PAST 12Z TUESDAY...MODELS
ARE SHOWING A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT WITH VCSH CONDITIONS AT KPSF/KPOU AND HIGHER SHOWER
CHANCES WITH -SHRA CONDITIONS AT KALB/KGFL AS WE WORK TOWARD THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 00Z SUNDAY THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND AS WE GO PAST 12Z TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI AM...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
FRI PM-SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A CLOUDY AND DAMP MORNING...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP BELOW 50 PERCENT.
S-SE WINDS WILL BECOME W-SW AT AROUND 4-8 MPH. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. RH VALUES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL STAY
DRY...THE FEW AREAS THAT RECEIVE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.  THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK.  DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 201730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH CONTINUED SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40 SHOWS H500 RIDGE CONTINUING
TO BUILD INTO NORTHEAST...WITH WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICES ROTATING
AROUND THE RIM OF THE RIDGE IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT. NO REAL STRONG
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. HAVE REMOVED ALL THE POPS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION PRIOR TO 22Z...AND KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHC CLOSER TO
EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT...MORE LIKE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS PM.

THE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED THE MOST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH
SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.
DRASTIC CHANGES TO SKYCOVER BASED ON THE SATELLITE TRENDS WITH
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT OVER
THE SRN DACKS REGION...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREENS.

EXPECTING MAX TEMPS IN THE M70S TO U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SOME
L80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. M60S TO M70S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH WITH DEWPTS IN
THE M50S TO L60S ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD...AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS VERY SLOWLY BEGINS
TO SPIN EASTWARD.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN STALLED OR VERY
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. MOST OF OUR AREA LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESP FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD...WHERE LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUES/WED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY...WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING CLOSE TO THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHC LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS
OUR AREA...AND AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SO FAR TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE AN ORGANIZED THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COULD ALLOW FOR ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORM TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY CURRENTLY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST...AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.  THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE MAY CUT OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN TWO PIECES.  ONE
PIECE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT. THE SECOND PIECE SHOULD BE MORE OF A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRYER AIR IN WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW...TRACKING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON... WITH LESS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

SO...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND JUST A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXIT LAST.  COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SO...HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S...AROUND 60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...AROUND
60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME IFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...WHEN THE CEILING SHOULD LIFT TO BORDERLINE
MVFR/VFR. THE CEILING SHOULD BECOME SOLIDLY VFR DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN BREAK UP AND BECOME SCATTERED 20Z-22Z. THERE
CLOUD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE CLEARING LINE BUT NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO MENTION IN TAFS.

SOUTH WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING IFR POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A CLOUDY AND DAMP MORNING...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP BELOW 50 PERCENT.
S-SE WINDS WILL BECOME W-SW AT AROUND 4-8 MPH. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. RH VALUES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL STAY
DRY...THE FEW AREAS THAT RECEIVE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.  THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK.  DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 201723
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
123 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ANTICIPATED WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS EXIT THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN RETURN BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 123 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUD CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH BREAKS IN THE LEE OR EAST SIDE OF ADKS
AND SRN GREENS. BREAKS LIKELY TO INCREASE GRADUALLY...BUT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE OVERALL
PICTURE THIS AFTN. FEW BREAKS IN SRN ZONES COULD LEAD TO LGT RAIN
SHOWERS W/ISLD TS AS COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THE FA. HAVE
INCLUDED SLGT CHC -SHRA AND TS OVER SRN ZONES THRU EARLY EVENING
HRS. OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL DEALING WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA HAS STALLED
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...OVERALL LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THINS SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE AS
SKIES BECOME PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. STILL A CHANCE FOR A COUPLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF
CAPE...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOUDY AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS APPROACHES. IT WILL BE QUITE A MILD NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER CONTRIBUTING TO LOWS ONLY IN THE
50S TO LOCALLY 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN BEGINS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE BTV CWA AND INTO NH AND MAINE. EXPECTED TO SEE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASING TO OVER
1000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
ACTIVE AS POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SERN ONTARIO ALONG MODERATELY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING WSW-
ENE JUST NORTH OF OUR INTL BORDER. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION THRU THE
EXTENDED IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE
00Z ECMWF JUST A BIT FASTER.

NORTH COUNTRY BEGINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SFC
LOW TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER. SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO
LOWER 60S. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN VT AND NRN
NY WHERE POPS ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. LOWER POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT
FURTHER REMOVED FROM PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT...AND SFC LOW TRACKS EWD INTO
NH/MAINE. 00Z GFS MODEL INDICATES AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUPPORTS AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY ... SO
CARRIED A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF
FRONTAL BNDRY BASED ON PRESENT INDICATIONS. GRADUALLY CLEARING
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN WET
CONDITIONS TUE-THU AND RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING N-NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS 65-70F. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN
CONTROL AS IT DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY DRY WX
CONDITIONS THRU NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW
BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY AFTN OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN/NERN VT. DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF PRECIP AMTS WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN
EXPECTED DRYNESS OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 60S. PROSPECT FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
SHOULD BRING LOWS LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT LOCALLY DOWN
TO 35F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 16Z. AT KRUT...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO S-CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN. CEILINGS AND VSBY CONDITIONS
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BUT TRENDING VFR THIS AFTN
AND THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF PRIMARILY VFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS...WITH CIGS 1-2 KFT CURRENTLY AT RUT. CURRENTLY OVC008
AT SLK...AND THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ANOTHER
2-3 HOURS. THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AFTER 14-15Z WITH
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...AND HAVE ALL SITES TRENDING VFR BETWEEN
15-18Z. WINDS INITIALLY SW EARLY THIS AM. A WEAK NWLY WIND SHIFT
WILL OCCUR DURING MONDAY AFTN WITH TROUGH PASSAGE...WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY 5-7 KTS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LOOKING AT
BKN060-100 WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE
PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD BEGIN TO
DRY OUT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TIME FRAME AS DRY LOW-LEVEL NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 201508
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1108 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ANTICIPATED WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS EXIT THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN RETURN BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE
REGION...AND CURRENT TEMPS COOLER THAN FCST...HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDING TO RADAR
TRENDS...MOSTLY DRYING...WITH UPSTREAM NW FLOW BRINGING IN SLGTLY
LOWER DWPTS. SO EXPECT GENERAL DRYING TREND TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL DEALING WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA HAS STALLED
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...OVERALL LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THINS SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE AS
SKIES BECOME PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. STILL A CHANCE FOR A COUPLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF
CAPE...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TODAY WITH MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF +14-18C
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOUDY AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS APPROACHES. IT WILL BE QUITE A MILD NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER CONTRIBUTING TO LOWS ONLY IN THE
50S TO LOCALLY 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN BEGINS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE BTV CWA AND INTO NH AND MAINE. EXPECTED TO SEE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASING TO OVER
1000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
ACTIVE AS POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SERN ONTARIO ALONG MODERATELY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING WSW-
ENE JUST NORTH OF OUR INTL BORDER. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION THRU THE
EXTENDED IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE
00Z ECMWF JUST A BIT FASTER.

NORTH COUNTRY BEGINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SFC
LOW TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER. SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO
LOWER 60S. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN VT AND NRN
NY WHERE POPS ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. LOWER POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT
FURTHER REMOVED FROM PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT...AND SFC LOW TRACKS EWD INTO
NH/MAINE. 00Z GFS MODEL INDICATES AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUPPORTS AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY ... SO
CARRIED A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF
FRONTAL BNDRY BASED ON PRESENT INDICATIONS. GRADUALLY CLEARING
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN WET
CONDITIONS TUE-THU AND RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING N-NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS 65-70F. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN
CONTROL AS IT DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY DRY WX
CONDITIONS THRU NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW
BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY AFTN OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN/NERN VT. DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF PRECIP AMTS WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN
EXPECTED DRYNESS OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 60S. PROSPECT FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
SHOULD BRING LOWS LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT LOCALLY DOWN
TO 35F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 16Z. AT KRUT...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO S-CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN. CEILINGS AND VSBY CONDITIONS
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BUT TRENDING VFR THIS AFTN
AND THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF PRIMARILY VFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS...WITH CIGS 1-2 KFT CURRENTLY AT RUT. CURRENTLY OVC008
AT SLK...AND THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ANOTHER
2-3 HOURS. THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AFTER 14-15Z WITH
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...AND HAVE ALL SITES TRENDING VFR BETWEEN
15-18Z. WINDS INITIALLY SW EARLY THIS AM. A WEAK NWLY WIND SHIFT
WILL OCCUR DURING MONDAY AFTN WITH TROUGH PASSAGE...WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY 5-7 KTS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LOOKING AT
BKN060-100 WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE
PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD BEGIN TO
DRY OUT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TIME FRAME AS DRY LOW-LEVEL NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KALY 201425
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY WITH
JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION IS ATTEMPTING TO PUSH ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
OUR REGION REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS RIDGING...WITH
NW FLOW AT 500 HPA ACROSS OUR AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A LIGHT BUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA. WHILE IT HAS REMAINED MAINLY RAIN FREE THIS
MORNING...THERE ARE A GOOD DEAL OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE.
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...IT LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT
THESE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY START TO BREAK UP TOWARDS
AFTERNOON.

WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD
QUICKLY WARM UP...AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF 12-14 DEGREES C WILL BE IN
PLACE. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS BREAK UP...WE SHOULD
SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN A FEW SPOTS. IF CLOUDS WERE TO
HANG IN...TEMPS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE STRONG MAY SUN THIS SCENARIO WOULD
SEEM LESS LIKELY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF
THIS FRONT...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MAY ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE RATHER BRIEF AND
PRODUCE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...AND MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO
STAY DRY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD...AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS VERY SLOWLY BEGINS
TO SPIN EASTWARD.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN STALLED OR VERY
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. MOST OF OUR AREA LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESP FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD...WHERE LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUES/WED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY...WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING CLOSE TO THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHC LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS
OUR AREA...AND AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SO FAR TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE AN ORGANIZED THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COULD ALLOW FOR ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORM TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY CURRENTLY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST...AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.  THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE MAY CUT OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN TWO PIECES.  ONE
PIECE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT. THE SECOND PIECE SHOULD BE MORE OF A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRYER AIR IN WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW...TRACKING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON... WITH LESS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

SO...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND JUST A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXIT LAST.  COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SO...HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S...AROUND 60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...AROUND
60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME IFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...WHEN THE CEILING SHOULD LIFT TO BORDERLINE
MVFR/VFR. THE CEILING SHOULD BECOME SOLIDLY VFR DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN BREAK UP AND BECOME SCATTERED 20Z-22Z. THERE
CLOUD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE CLEARING LINE BUT NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO MENTION IN TAFS.

SOUTH WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING IFR POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A CLOUDY AND DAMP MORNING...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP BELOW 50 PERCENT.
S-SE WINDS WILL BECOME W-SW AT AROUND 4-8 MPH. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. RH VALUES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL STAY
DRY...THE FEW AREAS THAT RECEIVE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.  THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK.  DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 201146
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ANTICIPATED WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS EXIT THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN RETURN BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 652 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

STILL DEALING WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA HAS STALLED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TODAY...OVERALL LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE THINS SO EXPECT
SHOWERS TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY. STILL A CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...BUT OVERALL
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE
TODAY WITH MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF +14-18C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
APPROACHES. IT WILL BE QUITE A MILD NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER CONTRIBUTING TO LOWS ONLY IN THE
50S TO LOCALLY 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN BEGINS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE BTV CWA AND INTO NH AND MAINE. EXPECTED TO SEE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASING TO OVER
1000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
ACTIVE AS POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SERN ONTARIO ALONG MODERATELY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING WSW-
ENE JUST NORTH OF OUR INTL BORDER. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION THRU THE
EXTENDED IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE
00Z ECMWF JUST A BIT FASTER.

NORTH COUNTRY BEGINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SFC LOW
TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER.
SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN VT AND NRN NY WHERE POPS
ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. LOWER POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT FURTHER REMOVED
FROM PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SEWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT...AND SFC LOW TRACKS EWD INTO NH/MAINE. 00Z
GFS MODEL INDICATES AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTS AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY ... SO CARRIED A PERIOD OF
LIKELY POPS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS
THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF FRONTAL BNDRY BASED ON PRESENT
INDICATIONS. GRADUALLY CLEARING EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN WET CONDITIONS TUE-THU AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW
LOWER 50S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING N-NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH VALLEY
HIGHS 65-70F. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL AS IT
DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY DRY WX CONDITIONS THRU
NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW BRINGS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY AFTN OR SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
NRN/NERN VT. DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF PRECIP
AMTS WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN EXPECTED DRYNESS OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 60S. PROSPECT FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...BUT LOCALLY DOWN TO 35F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 16Z. AT KRUT...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO S-CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN. CEILINGS AND VSBY CONDITIONS
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BUT TRENDING VFR THIS AFTN
AND THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF PRIMARILY VFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS...WITH CIGS 1-2 KFT CURRENTLY AT RUT. CURRENTLY OVC008 AT
SLK...AND THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ANOTHER 2-3
HOURS. THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AFTER 14-15Z WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING...AND HAVE ALL SITES TRENDING VFR BETWEEN 15-18Z.
WINDS INITIALLY SW EARLY THIS AM. A WEAK NWLY WIND SHIFT WILL
OCCUR DURING MONDAY AFTN WITH TROUGH PASSAGE...WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY 5-7 KTS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LOOKING AT BKN060-100
WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE PERIODS
OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. VERY WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TIME FRAME
AS DRY LOW-LEVEL NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KALY 201137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
737 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY WITH
JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL  OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 622 AM EDT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION IS ATTEMPTING TO PUSH ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. OUR
REGION REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS RIDGING...WITH NW
FLOW AT 500 HPA ACROSS OUR AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A LIGHT BUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA. WHILE IT HAS REMAINED RAIN FREE THIS
MORNING...THERE ARE A GOOD DEAL OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE.
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...IT LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT
THESE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY START TO BREAK UP TOWARDS
AFTERNOON.

WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD
QUICKLY WARM UP...AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF 12-14 DEGREES C WILL BE IN
PLACE. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS BREAK UP...WE SHOULD
SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN A FEW SPOTS. IF CLOUDS WERE TO
HANG IN...TEMPS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE STRONG MAY SUN THIS SCENARIO WOULD
SEEM LESS LIKELY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
VISIBLE ON RADAR JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADKS
AND NORTHERN VT. THESE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
FRONT...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN. THE
LATEST 06Z NAM AND 06Z GFS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MOST
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THE LATEST 07Z 3KM
HRRR DID SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS RATHER SPARSE. AS A RESULT...ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE RATHER BRIEF AND PRODUCE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL...AND MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO STAY DRY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD...AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS VERY SLOWLY BEGINS
TO SPIN EASTWARD.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN STALLED OR VERY
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. MOST OF OUR AREA LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESP FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD...WHERE LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUES/WED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY...WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING CLOSE TO THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHC LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS
OUR AREA...AND AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SO FAR TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE AN ORGANIZED THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COULD ALLOW FOR ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORM TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY CURRENTLY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST...AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.  THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE MAY CUT OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN TWO PIECES.  ONE
PIECE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT. THE SECOND PIECE SHOULD BE MORE OF A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRYER AIR IN WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW...TRACKING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON... WITH LESS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

SO...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND JUST A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXIT LAST.  COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SO...HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S...AROUND 60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...AROUND
60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME IFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...WHEN THE CEILING SHOULD LIFT TO BORDERLINE
MVFR/VFR. THE CEILING SHOULD BECOME SOLIDLY VFR DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN BREAK UP AND BECOME SCATTERED 20Z-22Z. THERE
CLOUD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE CLEARING LINE BUT NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO MENTION IN TAFS.

SOUTH WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING IFR POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A CLOUDY AND DAMP MORNING...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP BELOW 50 PERCENT.
S-SE WINDS WILL BECOME W-SW AT AROUND 4-8 MPH. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. RH VALUES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL STAY
DRY...THE FEW AREAS THAT RECEIVE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.  THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK.  DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 201054
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
654 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ANTICIPATED WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS EXIT THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN RETURN BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 652 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

STILL DEALING WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA HAS STALLED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TODAY...OVERALL LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE THINS SO EXPECT
SHOWERS TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY. STILL A CHANCE FOR A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...BUT OVERALL
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE
TODAY WITH MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF +14-18C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
APPROACHES. IT WILL BE QUITE A MILD NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER CONTRIBUTING TO LOWS ONLY IN THE
50S TO LOCALLY 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN BEGINS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE BTV CWA AND INTO NH AND MAINE. EXPECTED TO SEE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASING TO OVER
1000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
ACTIVE AS POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SERN ONTARIO ALONG MODERATELY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING WSW-
ENE JUST NORTH OF OUR INTL BORDER. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION THRU THE
EXTENDED IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE
00Z ECMWF JUST A BIT FASTER.

NORTH COUNTRY BEGINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SFC LOW
TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER.
SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN VT AND NRN NY WHERE POPS
ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. LOWER POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT FURTHER REMOVED
FROM PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SEWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT...AND SFC LOW TRACKS EWD INTO NH/MAINE. 00Z
GFS MODEL INDICATES AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTS AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY ... SO CARRIED A PERIOD OF
LIKELY POPS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS
THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF FRONTAL BNDRY BASED ON PRESENT
INDICATIONS. GRADUALLY CLEARING EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN WET CONDITIONS TUE-THU AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW
LOWER 50S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING N-NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH VALLEY
HIGHS 65-70F. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL AS IT
DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY DRY WX CONDITIONS THRU
NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW BRINGS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY AFTN OR SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
NRN/NERN VT. DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF PRECIP
AMTS WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN EXPECTED DRYNESS OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 60S. PROSPECT FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...BUT LOCALLY DOWN TO 35F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WARM FRONT SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS VT AT 05Z
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT.
ANTICIPATE THAT BULK OF THE REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE TAF SITES NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND ONLY CARRIED PREVAILING
-SHRA IN THE TAF AT MPV. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE
AND ANTICIPATE ABUNDANT MVFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT
MPV/SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF FOG AT
MSS...THOUGH RECENT TREND HAS BEEN FOR IMPROVING VSBY AS LIGHT SW
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.

THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AFTER 14Z WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING...AND HAVE ALL SITES TRENDING VFR BETWEEN 14-18Z
MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY S-SW EARLY THIS AM. A WEAK NWLY WIND SHIFT
WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING MONDAY AFTN...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10
KTS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LOOKING AT BKN060-100 WITH LIGHT
WIND CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE PERIODS
OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. VERY WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TIME FRAME
AS DRY LOW-LEVEL NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KALY 201022
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
622 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY WITH
JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL  OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 622 AM EDT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION IS ATTEMPTING TO PUSH ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. OUR
REGION REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS RIDGING...WITH NW
FLOW AT 500 HPA ACROSS OUR AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A LIGHT BUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA. WHILE IT HAS REMAINED RAIN FREE THIS
MORNING...THERE ARE A GOOD DEAL OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE.
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...IT LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT
THESE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY START TO BREAK UP TOWARDS
AFTERNOON.

WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD
QUICKLY WARM UP...AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF 12-14 DEGREES C WILL BE IN
PLACE. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS BREAK UP...WE SHOULD
SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN A FEW SPOTS. IF CLOUDS WERE TO
HANG IN...TEMPS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE STRONG MAY SUN THIS SCENARIO WOULD
SEEM LESS LIKELY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
VISIBLE ON RADAR JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADKS
AND NORTHERN VT. THESE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
FRONT...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN. THE
LATEST 06Z NAM AND 06Z GFS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MOST
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THE LATEST 07Z 3KM
HRRR DID SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS RATHER SPARSE. AS A RESULT...ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE RATHER BRIEF AND PRODUCE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL...AND MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO STAY DRY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD...AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS VERY SLOWLY BEGINS
TO SPIN EASTWARD.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN STALLED OR VERY
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. MOST OF OUR AREA LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESP FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD...WHERE LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUES/WED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY...WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING CLOSE TO THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHC LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS
OUR AREA...AND AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SO FAR TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE AN ORGANIZED THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COULD ALLOW FOR ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORM TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY CURRENTLY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST...AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.  THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE MAY CUT OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN TWO PIECES.  ONE
PIECE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT. THE SECOND PIECE SHOULD BE MORE OF A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRYER AIR IN WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW...TRACKING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON... WITH LESS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

SO...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND JUST A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXIT LAST.  COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SO...HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S...AROUND 60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...AROUND
60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS RADAR NOT SHOWING ANY
SHOWERS IN THE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A LIGHT SOUTHEAST MARINE
FLOW CONTINUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC SKIES...IN THE
IFR RANGE TO START AT KPOU AND KPSF...AND MVFR AT KALB AND KGFL.
CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO JUST BELOW 1000 FEET EVEN AT KALB AND KGFL
AFTER 08Z.  CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO MVFR AFTER 12Z AT ALL
SITES.  SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN 07Z-12Z AT
ALL SITES...WHEN CEILINGS ARE AT THEIR LOWEST. CEILINGS SHOULD
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AFTER 12Z AND CLOUDS SHOULD GO TO
SCATTERED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AFTER 21Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THE
MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY AND WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING IFR POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A CLOUDY AND DAMP MORNING...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP BELOW 50 PERCENT.
S-SE WINDS WILL BECOME W-SW AT AROUND 4-8 MPH. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. RH VALUES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL STAY
DRY...THE FEW AREAS THAT RECEIVE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.  THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK.  DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 200819
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
419 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ANTICIPATED WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS EXIT THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN RETURN BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT MONDAY...STILL DEALING WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA HAS STALLED
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...OVERALL LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THINS SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE AS
SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. STILL A CHANCE FOR A COUPLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF
CAPE...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TODAY WITH MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF +14-18C
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
APPROACHES. IT WILL BE QUITE A MILD NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER CONTRIBUTING TO LOWS ONLY IN THE
50S TO LOCALLY 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN BEGINS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE BTV CWA AND INTO NH AND MAINE. EXPECTED TO SEE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASING TO OVER
1000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
ACTIVE AS POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SERN ONTARIO ALONG MODERATELY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING WSW-
ENE JUST NORTH OF OUR INTL BORDER. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION THRU THE
EXTENDED IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE
00Z ECMWF JUST A BIT FASTER.

NORTH COUNTRY BEGINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SFC LOW
TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER.
SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN VT AND NRN NY WHERE POPS
ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. LOWER POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT FURTHER REMOVED
FROM PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SEWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT...AND SFC LOW TRACKS EWD INTO NH/MAINE. 00Z
GFS MODEL INDICATES AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTS AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY ... SO CARRIED A PERIOD OF
LIKELY POPS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS
THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF FRONTAL BNDRY BASED ON PRESENT
INDICATIONS. GRADUALLY CLEARING EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN WET CONDITIONS TUE-THU AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW
LOWER 50S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING N-NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH VALLEY
HIGHS 65-70F. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL AS IT
DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY DRY WX CONDITIONS THRU
NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW BRINGS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY AFTN OR SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
NRN/NERN VT. DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF PRECIP
AMTS WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN EXPECTED DRYNESS OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 60S. PROSPECT FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...BUT LOCALLY DOWN TO 35F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WARM FRONT SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS VT AT 05Z
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT.
ANTICIPATE THAT BULK OF THE REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE TAF SITES NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND ONLY CARRIED PREVAILING
-SHRA IN THE TAF AT MPV. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE
AND ANTICIPATE ABUNDANT MVFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT
MPV/SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF FOG AT
MSS...THOUGH RECENT TREND HAS BEEN FOR IMPROVING VSBY AS LIGHT SW
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.

THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AFTER 14Z WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING...AND HAVE ALL SITES TRENDING VFR BETWEEN 14-18Z
MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY S-SW EARLY THIS AM. A WEAK NWLY WIND SHIFT
WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING MONDAY AFTN...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10
KTS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LOOKING AT BKN060-100 WITH LIGHT
WIND CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE PERIODS
OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. VERY WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TIME FRAME
AS DRY LOW-LEVEL NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KALY 200809
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
409 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY WITH
JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL  OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 409 AM EDT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION IS ATTEMPTING TO PUSH ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. OUR
REGION REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS RIDGING...WITH NW
FLOW AT 500 HPA ACROSS OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A LIGHT BUT
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA.
WHILE IT HAS REMAINED RAIN FREE THIS MORNING...THERE ARE A GOOD
DEAL OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. DURING THE MORNING HOURS...IT
LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT THESE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
START TO BREAK UP TOWARDS AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN THIS
AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD QUICKLY WARM UP...AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF 12-14
DEGREES C WILL BE IN PLACE. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS
BREAK UP...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS. IF CLOUDS WERE TO HANG IN...TEMPS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE STRONG MAY
SUN THIS SCENARIO WOULD SEEM LESS LIKELY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
FRONT...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE RATHER BRIEF
AND PRODUCE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO
STAY DRY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD...AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS VERY SLOWLY BEGINS
TO SPIN EASTWARD.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN STALLED OR VERY
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. MOST OF OUR AREA LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESP FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD...WHERE LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUES/WED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY...WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING CLOSE TO THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHC LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS
OUR AREA...AND AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SO FAR TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE AN ORGANIZED THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COULD ALLOW FOR ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORM TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY CURRENTLY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST...AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.  THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE MAY CUT OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN TWO PIECES.  ONE
PIECE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT. THE SECOND PIECE SHOULD BE MORE OF A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRYER AIR IN WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW...TRACKING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON... WITH LESS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

SO...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND JUST A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXIT LAST.  COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SO...HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S...AROUND 60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...AROUND
60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS RADAR NOT SHOWING ANY
SHOWERS IN THE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A LIGHT SOUTHEAST MARINE
FLOW CONTINUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC SKIES...IN THE
IFR RANGE TO START AT KPOU AND KPSF...AND MVFR AT KALB AND KGFL.
CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO JUST BELOW 1000 FEET EVEN AT KALB AND KGFL
AFTER 08Z.  CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO MVFR AFTER 12Z AT ALL
SITES.  SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN 07Z-12Z AT
ALL SITES...WHEN CEILINGS ARE AT THEIR LOWEST. CEILINGS SHOULD
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AFTER 12Z AND CLOUDS SHOULD GO TO
SCATTERED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AFTER 21Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THE
MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY AND WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING IFR POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A CLOUDY AND DAMP MORNING...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP BELOW 50 PERCENT.
S-SE WINDS WILL BECOME W-SW AT AROUND 4-8 MPH. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. RH VALUES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL STAY
DRY...THE FEW AREAS THAT RECEIVE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.  THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK.  DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 200745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK WARM FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LEAD TO A
DRY NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT BUT A GREATER THREAT OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1248 AM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO INHERITED FORECAST
MAINLY TO ADJUST SKY COVER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AS A LITTLE HOLE HAS OPENED IN THE CLOUDS. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND BRIEF LIGHT WINDS...THIS CLEARING HAS
ALLOWED FOR FOG FOG TO FORM AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER RETURNS. OTHERWISE...STILL
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS VERMONT AT THIS TIME...BUT OVERALL
AREAL COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS HOLD STEADY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 433 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC LOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
MONDAY...PRODUCING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
HEADS SOUTH. LIFTED INDICES LESS THAN ZERO WILL ONLY REACH THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MINIMAL CAPE VALUES. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF SLGT CHC OF TS IN THE AFTN FOR SOUTHERN
ZONES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
NW FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP BETTER
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SFC FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING...AND 925MB TEMPS
INCREASING TO THE MID TEENS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L-U70S.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A BREAK FROM PRECIP DAYTIME HEATING
ENDS...BUT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL START MOSTLY DRY BUT SEE CHANCE POPS IN THE
AFTN AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. POPS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MAX TEMPS IN THE M60S-
M70S WITH CONTINUED CLOUDS AND LGT FLOW. AND MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
ACTIVE AS POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SERN ONTARIO ALONG MODERATELY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING WSW-
ENE JUST NORTH OF OUR INTL BORDER. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION THRU THE
EXTENDED IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE
00Z ECMWF JUST A BIT FASTER.

NORTH COUNTRY BEGINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SFC LOW
TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER.
SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN VT AND NRN NY WHERE POPS
ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. LOWER POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT FURTHER REMOVED
FROM PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SEWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT...AND SFC LOW TRACKS EWD INTO NH/MAINE. 00Z
GFS MODEL INDICATES AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTS AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY ... SO CARRIED A PERIOD OF
LIKELY POPS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS
THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF FRONTAL BNDRY BASED ON PRESENT
INDICATIONS. GRADUALLY CLEARING EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN WET CONDITIONS TUE-THU AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW
LOWER 50S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING N-NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH VALLEY
HIGHS 65-70F. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL AS IT
DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY DRY WX CONDITIONS THRU
NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW BRINGS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY AFTN OR SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
NRN/NERN VT. DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF PRECIP
AMTS WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN EXPECTED DRYNESS OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 60S. PROSPECT FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...BUT LOCALLY DOWN TO 35F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WARM FRONT SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS VT AT 05Z
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT.
ANTICIPATE THAT BULK OF THE REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE TAF SITES NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND ONLY CARRIED PREVAILING
-SHRA IN THE TAF AT MPV. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE
AND ANTICIPATE ABUNDANT MVFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT
MPV/SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF FOG AT
MSS...THOUGH RECENT TREND HAS BEEN FOR IMPROVING VSBY AS LIGHT SW
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.

THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AFTER 14Z WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING...AND HAVE ALL SITES TRENDING VFR BETWEEN 14-18Z
MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY S-SW EARLY THIS AM. A WEAK NWLY WIND SHIFT
WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING MONDAY AFTN...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10
KTS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LOOKING AT BKN060-100 WITH LIGHT
WIND CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE PERIODS
OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. VERY WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TIME FRAME
AS DRY LOW-LEVEL NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 200538
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
138 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK WARM FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LEAD TO A
DRY NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT BUT A GREATER THREAT OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1248 AM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO INHERITED FORECAST
MAINLY TO ADJUST SKY COVER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AS A LITTLE HOLE HAS OPENED IN THE CLOUDS. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND BRIEF LIGHT WINDS...THIS CLEARING HAS
ALLOWED FOR FOG FOG TO FORM AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER RETURNS. OTHERWISE...STILL
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS VERMONT AT THIS TIME...BUT OVERALL
AREAL COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS HOLD STEADY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 433 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC LOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
MONDAY...PRODUCING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
HEADS SOUTH. LIFTED INDICES LESS THAN ZERO WILL ONLY REACH THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MINIMAL CAPE VALUES. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF SLGT CHC OF TS IN THE AFTN FOR SOUTHERN
ZONES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
NW FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP BETTER
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SFC FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING...AND 925MB TEMPS
INCREASING TO THE MID TEENS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L-U70S.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A BREAK FROM PRECIP DAYTIME HEATING
ENDS...BUT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL START MOSTLY DRY BUT SEE CHANCE POPS IN THE
AFTN AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. POPS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MAX TEMPS IN THE M60S-
M70S WITH CONTINUED CLOUDS AND LGT FLOW. AND MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 433 PM EDT SUNDAY...TRANSITION FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. GOING FORECAST ALREADY HAS THIS IDEA HANDLED WELL
AND DID NOT CHANGE FROM THIS THINKING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL NOT MOVE
INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATER FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...A WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR MASS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
RESULTING INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH AND COMBINED WITH
THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH...THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE. SHOULD SEE
HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...SO JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST. ONE NOTICEABLE
FEATURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE A
FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY...THE DAY OF THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON. AT THIS
TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
RACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WARM FRONT SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS VT AT 05Z
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT.
ANTICIPATE THAT BULK OF THE REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE TAF SITES NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND ONLY CARRIED PREVAILING
-SHRA IN THE TAF AT MPV. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE
AND ANTICIPATE ABUNDANT MVFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT
MPV/SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF FOG AT
MSS...THOUGH RECENT TREND HAS BEEN FOR IMPROVING VSBY AS LIGHT SW
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.

THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AFTER 14Z WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING...AND HAVE ALL SITES TRENDING VFR BETWEEN 14-18Z
MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY S-SW EARLY THIS AM. A WEAK NWLY WIND SHIFT
WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING MONDAY AFTN...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10
KTS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LOOKING AT BKN060-100 WITH LIGHT
WIND CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE PERIODS
OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. VERY WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TIME FRAME
AS DRY LOW-LEVEL NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KALY 200522
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARMTH...ALONG
WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 122 AM EDT...THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE
ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. DUE TO LITTLE FORCING IN PLACE...NO
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT S-SE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS
AROUND...AND PERHAPS SOME POCKETS OF MIST...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS WON/T DROP MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS DUE TO
THE HIGH RH AND LOW CLOUDS AROUND...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S FOR MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING TUESDAY NIGHT
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES.

THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTER WITH LOWS OF
CLOUDS AND PERIODS WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. TIMING OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE DIFFICULT...BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT TUESDAY AFTN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE FORECAST A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MONDAY AFTN AND EVE...AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...WILL
ALSO BE INCLUDING A CHANCE OF TSTMS MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING...AND
AGAIN FROM TUESDAY AFTN THRU TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE WARMER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80... LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WEAKENING CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD
AND SHEARS OUT AS MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES FLATTENS. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR HUDSON
BAY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
SYSTEM`S WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION BY
MID WEEK AND THE AREA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THURSDAY. THE
SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE AS BOUNDARIES
MOVE THROUGH SO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL NEED TO
SWING THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT THE MODELS ARE
NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE BEFORE HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE...LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HAVE TO BE WAIT UNTIL MONDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER REGION IT WILL BE COOL WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH CHILLY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WITH 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NOTE: THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY STARTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...
BENNINGTON COUNTY...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START
ON MAY 20TH FOR EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY AND ON MAY 25TH ON THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS RADAR NOT SHOWING ANY
SHOWERS IN THE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A LIGHT SOUTHEAST MARINE
FLOW CONTINUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC SKIES...IN THE
IFR RANGE TO START AT KPOU AND KPSF...AND MVFR AT KALB AND KGFL.
CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO JUST BELOW 1000 FEET EVEN AT KALB AND
KGFL AFTER 08Z. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO MVFR AFTER 12Z AT ALL
SITES. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN 07Z-12Z AT
ALL SITES...WHEN CEILINGS ARE AT THEIR LOWEST. CEILINGS SHOULD
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AFTER 12Z AND CLOUDS SHOULD GO TO
SCATTERED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AFTER 21Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THE
MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY AND WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING IFR POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS END
THIS EVENING. AS A HUMID AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH TONIGHT AT 5 TO 15 MPH...THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AT THE SAME SPEED...BUT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20
MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH BEFORE IT ENDS THIS EVENING. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 200448
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1248 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK WARM FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LEAD TO A
DRY NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT BUT A GREATER THREAT OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1248 AM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO INHERITED FORECAST
MAINLY TO ADJUST SKY COVER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AS A LITTLE HOLE HAS OPENED IN THE CLOUDS. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND BRIEF LIGHT WINDS...THIS CLEARING HAS
ALLOWED FOR FOG FOG TO FORM AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER RETURNS. OTHERWISE...STILL
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS VERMONT AT THIS TIME...BUT OVERALL
AREAL COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS HOLD STEADY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 433 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC LOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
MONDAY...PRODUCING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
HEADS SOUTH. LIFTED INDICES LESS THAN ZERO WILL ONLY REACH THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MINIMAL CAPE VALUES. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF SLGT CHC OF TS IN THE AFTN FOR SOUTHERN
ZONES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
NW FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP BETTER
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SFC FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING...AND 925MB TEMPS
INCREASING TO THE MID TEENS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L-U70S.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A BREAK FROM PRECIP DAYTIME HEATING
ENDS...BUT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL START MOSTLY DRY BUT SEE CHANCE POPS IN THE
AFTN AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. POPS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MAX TEMPS IN THE M60S-
M70S WITH CONTINUED CLOUDS AND LGT FLOW. AND MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 433 PM EDT SUNDAY...TRANSITION FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. GOING FORECAST ALREADY HAS THIS IDEA HANDLED WELL
AND DID NOT CHANGE FROM THIS THINKING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL NOT MOVE
INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATER FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...A WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR MASS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
RESULTING INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH AND COMBINED WITH
THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH...THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE. SHOULD SEE
HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...SO JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST. ONE NOTICEABLE
FEATURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE A
FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY...THE DAY OF THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON. AT THIS
TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
RACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...HAVE TREATED CURRENT VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
WITH P6SM -SHRA AS OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWERS AREN`T
RESULTING IN ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. LOOK FOR
THESE SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BY 03Z.
EXPECTING MAINLY BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...THOUGH HAVE TEMPO`D IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS 03-06Z AT RUT
AND MPV GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LOWER CEILINGS THAT ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA ON MONDAY
/BETWEEN 13-18Z/. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH THE FRONT...BUT
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY AT RUT AND MPV MAY TRIGGER SOME ISO/SCT
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER. HAVE INDICATED VCSH FOR THIS
POTENTIAL FROM 15Z ONWARD. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH AT 5-10KTS BECOMING NORTHWEST /WEST-
NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL
BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY VCNTY OF NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TIMING UNCERTAINTIES CURRENTLY EXIST BUT
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KALY 200248
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1048 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARMTH...ALONG
WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1048 PM EDT...ONLY A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS REMAIN OVER
WINDHAM COUNTY VT AND EVEN THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. NOT MUCH ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST THOUGH...AS A LOW STRATUS DECK HAS
ENVELOPED THE AREA WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER OR MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING TUESDAY NIGHT
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES.

THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTER WITH LOWS OF
CLOUDS AND PERIODS WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. TIMING OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE DIFFICULT...BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT TUESDAY AFTN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE FORECAST A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MONDAY AFTN AND EVE...AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...WILL
ALSO BE INCLUDING A CHANCE OF TSTMS MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING...AND
AGAIN FROM TUESDAY AFTN THRU TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE WARMER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80... LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WEAKENING CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD
AND SHEARS OUT AS MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES FLATTENS. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR HUDSON
BAY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
SYSTEM`S WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION BY
MID WEEK AND THE AREA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THURSDAY. THE
SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE AS BOUNDARIES
MOVE THROUGH SO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL NEED TO
SWING THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT THE MODELS ARE
NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE BEFORE HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE...LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HAVE TO BE WAIT UNTIL MONDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER REGION IT WILL BE COOL WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH CHILLY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WITH 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NOTE: THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY STARTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...
BENNINGTON COUNTY...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START
ON MAY 20TH FOR EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY AND ON MAY 25TH ON THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE ALL OF THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH ONE LAST BATCH OF SHOWERS IS PASSING BY JUST
NORTH OF KGFL. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A SOUTHEAST MARINE
FLOW CONTINUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC SKIES INITIALLY
IN MVFR RANGE LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. AT
THIS TIME WILL MENTION IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KPOU/KPSF
BEFORE 06Z...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FORECASTING IFR AT KALB/KGFL UNTIL
06Z SINCE CIGS ARE INITIALLY HIGHER AT THESE LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR BETWEEN AROUND 13Z-
16Z...AS THE STRONG LATE MAY SUN WORKS ON THE STRATUS DECK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY START TO DEVELOP AROUND NOON...SO WILL
MENTION VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING IFR POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS END
THIS EVENING. AS A HUMID AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH TONIGHT AT 5 TO 15 MPH...THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AT THE SAME SPEED...BUT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20
MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH BEFORE IT ENDS THIS EVENING. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 200219
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1019 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK WARM FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LEAD TO A
DRY NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT BUT A GREATER THREAT OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1019 PM EDT SUNDAY...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD SIDE OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM A
FEW HUNDRETHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH AN ADDITIONAL FEW
HUNDRETHS EXPECTED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY FALL A
COUPLE DEGREES MORE UNDER OVERCAST AND INCREASING WARM- AIR
ADVECTION WITH LOWS NEAR SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BY MORNING AS A COOL
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM
ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 433 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC LOW BECOMES SLGTLY MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
MONDAY...PRODUCING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
HEADS SOUTH. LIFTED INDICES LESS THAN ZERO WILL ONLY REACH THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MINIMAL CAPE VALUES. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF SLGT CHC OF TS IN THE AFTN FOR SOUTHERN
ZONES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
NW FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP BETTER
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SFC FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING...AND 925MB TEMPS
INCREASING TO THE MID TEENS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L-U70S.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A BREAK FROM PRECIP DAYTIME HEATING
ENDS...BUT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL START MOSTLY DRY BUT SEE CHANCE POPS IN THE
AFTN AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. POPS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MAX TEMPS IN THE M60S-
M70S WITH CONTINUED CLOUDS AND LGT FLOW. AND MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 433 PM EDT SUNDAY...TRANSITION FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. GOING FORECAST ALREADY HAS THIS IDEA HANDLED WELL
AND DID NOT CHANGE FROM THIS THINKING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL NOT MOVE
INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATER FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...A WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR MASS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
RESULTING INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH AND COMBINED WITH
THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH...THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE. SHOULD SEE
HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...SO JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST. ONE NOTICEABLE
FEATURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE A
FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY...THE DAY OF THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON. AT THIS
TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
RACE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...HAVE TREATED CURRENT VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
WITH P6SM -SHRA AS OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWERS AREN`T
RESULTING IN ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. LOOK FOR
THESE SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BY 03Z.
EXPECTING MAINLY BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...THOUGH HAVE TEMPO`D IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS 03-06Z AT RUT
AND MPV GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LOWER CEILINGS THAT ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA ON MONDAY
/BETWEEN 13-18Z/. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH THE FRONT...BUT
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY AT RUT AND MPV MAY TRIGGER SOME ISO/SCT
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER. HAVE INDICATED VCSH FOR THIS
POTENTIAL FROM 15Z ONWARD. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH AT 5-10KTS BECOMING NORTHWEST /WEST-
NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING SWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL
BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY VCNTY OF NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TIMING UNCERTAINTIES CURRENTLY EXIST BUT
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO