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000
FXUS61 KALY 271730
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
130 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Band of showers continues is track east and will affect eastern NY
and western New England this afternoon. Quite a sharp western edge
to the rain but clouds lag back a bit to the west. There is a line
of clearing approaching central NY that will work its way into the
Schoharie Valley...western Mohawk Valley and parts of the southern
Adirondacks before sunset.

The clouds and rain will cap temperatures in eastern NY and
western New England...and cause temperatures to fall a bit while
it is raining. In areas it is already raining...temperatures have
fallen...and may fall another degree or two. Dew points rise
behind the band of rain and clouds...though.

So...temperatures this afternoon in the upper 70s to mid 80s in
eastern NY and western New England will fall once the rain
arrives...while temperatures in areas seeing the rain will be in
the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned pre-frontal trough will stall and become
diffuse near western New England tonight. So will only mention
isolated to widely scattered showers. It will be another mild
night with a southerly breezy persisting, with low temps in the
60s.

Tuesday is expected to be the most active day of the week in
terms of convective potential. At the surface, a cold front will
gradually push eastward across the region during the afternoon and
evening. Aloft, a positive to neutral tilt upper level trough is
forecast to deepen just to our west over the eastern Great Lakes.
Height falls and cyclonic vorticity advection aloft combined with
low level convergence along the cold front should result in fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially during
the afternoon across eastern NY spreading eastward to western New
England by evening.

There is a marginal risk for some of the thunderstorms to become
severe if sufficient instability can develop. Some breaks of
sunshine are expected ahead of the cold front, but it is unclear
how unstable it will get as model guidance differs with the GFS
indicating 500-1500 J/Kg of SBCAPE, while the NAM has more robust
values of around 1500-3000 J/Kg. Should more sunshine materialize,
the NAM values would be reasonable, but this is uncertain at this
time. Deep layer shear will be increasing to around 25-40 kt, so
organized severe storms will be possible given ample buoyancy.
Will mention the marginal risk in HWO.

Showers will continue Tuesday night, as the cold front only
gradually makes eastward progress, while the upper level trough
axis remains to our west with a continued cyclonic flow.
Coverage/intensity of thunder should decrease by late evening
though as instability is forecast to wane.

Will continue to mention chance pops for scattered showers with
isolated thunder for Wednesday, siding with the slower ECMWF/NAM
guidance compared to faster GFS. The upper level trough may become
a closed low, which would slow its progress. The more progressive
GFS continues to show and open wave. Max temps Wednesday should be
cooler than recent days, but close to normal for late June.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The period is expected to start out with fair weather and
seasonably warm temperatures. At the surface high pressure is
expected to be over the region. While aloft, the region is
expected to be between short wave trough.

A cold front will be on the approaches from the northwest as we
close out the work week and head into the long holiday weekend.
Convection is expected as the front approaches on Friday and
crosses the region Friday night.

Guidance indicates an upper level low should develop over the
Great Lakes region with it becoming stacked. This stacked low then
is modeled to move gradually eastward across eastern Canada over
the holiday weekend as short waves rotating about it maintaining
an upper level trough over the region. At this time, it appears
the weather across the local area should be fair for the holiday
weekend as the upper low is modeled to remain far enough to our
north while the cold front that moves through is forecast to stall
far enough to our south. A wave of low pressure is expected to
move eastward along this boundary. Subtle changes in the expected
locations of these features will result in changes to a fair
weather forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Band of showers was progressing across eastern New York yet flight
conditions remain VFR. In the wake of these showers the CIGS lower
a bit toward MVFR which seems this trend will continue into this
evening. Later tonight, combination from some rainfall earlier
along with higher surface dewpoints will lead toward lower CIGS
and VIS well into MVFR flight categories. Now if enough breaks in
the clouds were to occur and winds decouple, IFR conditions will
be possible with fog and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction around 10 KTS
through this afternoon then drop back to 5KTS or less tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 50 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 80 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Tuesday
will be around 50 to 60 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 10 to 15 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. Southerly winds will decrease to 5 to 10 mph
tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be south-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today, as a
weakening frontal boundary approaches. There will be a better
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Two day rainfall totals
could reach one half to one inch, with some isolated higher
amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV

www.weather.gov/albany




000
FXUS61 KALY 271730
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
130 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Band of showers continues is track east and will affect eastern NY
and western New England this afternoon. Quite a sharp western edge
to the rain but clouds lag back a bit to the west. There is a line
of clearing approaching central NY that will work its way into the
Schoharie Valley...western Mohawk Valley and parts of the southern
Adirondacks before sunset.

The clouds and rain will cap temperatures in eastern NY and
western New England...and cause temperatures to fall a bit while
it is raining. In areas it is already raining...temperatures have
fallen...and may fall another degree or two. Dew points rise
behind the band of rain and clouds...though.

So...temperatures this afternoon in the upper 70s to mid 80s in
eastern NY and western New England will fall once the rain
arrives...while temperatures in areas seeing the rain will be in
the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned pre-frontal trough will stall and become
diffuse near western New England tonight. So will only mention
isolated to widely scattered showers. It will be another mild
night with a southerly breezy persisting, with low temps in the
60s.

Tuesday is expected to be the most active day of the week in
terms of convective potential. At the surface, a cold front will
gradually push eastward across the region during the afternoon and
evening. Aloft, a positive to neutral tilt upper level trough is
forecast to deepen just to our west over the eastern Great Lakes.
Height falls and cyclonic vorticity advection aloft combined with
low level convergence along the cold front should result in fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially during
the afternoon across eastern NY spreading eastward to western New
England by evening.

There is a marginal risk for some of the thunderstorms to become
severe if sufficient instability can develop. Some breaks of
sunshine are expected ahead of the cold front, but it is unclear
how unstable it will get as model guidance differs with the GFS
indicating 500-1500 J/Kg of SBCAPE, while the NAM has more robust
values of around 1500-3000 J/Kg. Should more sunshine materialize,
the NAM values would be reasonable, but this is uncertain at this
time. Deep layer shear will be increasing to around 25-40 kt, so
organized severe storms will be possible given ample buoyancy.
Will mention the marginal risk in HWO.

Showers will continue Tuesday night, as the cold front only
gradually makes eastward progress, while the upper level trough
axis remains to our west with a continued cyclonic flow.
Coverage/intensity of thunder should decrease by late evening
though as instability is forecast to wane.

Will continue to mention chance pops for scattered showers with
isolated thunder for Wednesday, siding with the slower ECMWF/NAM
guidance compared to faster GFS. The upper level trough may become
a closed low, which would slow its progress. The more progressive
GFS continues to show and open wave. Max temps Wednesday should be
cooler than recent days, but close to normal for late June.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The period is expected to start out with fair weather and
seasonably warm temperatures. At the surface high pressure is
expected to be over the region. While aloft, the region is
expected to be between short wave trough.

A cold front will be on the approaches from the northwest as we
close out the work week and head into the long holiday weekend.
Convection is expected as the front approaches on Friday and
crosses the region Friday night.

Guidance indicates an upper level low should develop over the
Great Lakes region with it becoming stacked. This stacked low then
is modeled to move gradually eastward across eastern Canada over
the holiday weekend as short waves rotating about it maintaining
an upper level trough over the region. At this time, it appears
the weather across the local area should be fair for the holiday
weekend as the upper low is modeled to remain far enough to our
north while the cold front that moves through is forecast to stall
far enough to our south. A wave of low pressure is expected to
move eastward along this boundary. Subtle changes in the expected
locations of these features will result in changes to a fair
weather forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Band of showers was progressing across eastern New York yet flight
conditions remain VFR. In the wake of these showers the CIGS lower
a bit toward MVFR which seems this trend will continue into this
evening. Later tonight, combination from some rainfall earlier
along with higher surface dewpoints will lead toward lower CIGS
and VIS well into MVFR flight categories. Now if enough breaks in
the clouds were to occur and winds decouple, IFR conditions will
be possible with fog and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction around 10 KTS
through this afternoon then drop back to 5KTS or less tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 50 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 80 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Tuesday
will be around 50 to 60 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 10 to 15 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. Southerly winds will decrease to 5 to 10 mph
tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be south-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today, as a
weakening frontal boundary approaches. There will be a better
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Two day rainfall totals
could reach one half to one inch, with some isolated higher
amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV

www.weather.gov/albany




000
FXUS61 KALY 271709
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
109 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Band of showers continues is track east and will affect eastern NY
and western New England this afternoon. Quite a sharp western edge
to the rain but clouds lag back a bit to the west. There is a line
of clearing approaching central NY that will work its way into the
Schoharie Valley...western Mohawk Valley and parts of the southern
Adirondacks before sunset.

The clouds and rain will cap temperatures in eastern NY and
western New England...and cause temperatures to fall a bit while
it is raining. In areas it is already raining...temperatures have
fallen...and may fall another degree or two. Dew points rise
behind the band of rain and clouds...though.

So...temperatures this afternoon in the upper 70s to mid 80s in
eastern NY and western New England will fall once the rain
arrives...while temperatures in areas seeing the rain will be in
the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned pre-frontal trough will stall and become
diffuse near western New England tonight. So will only mention
isolated to widely scattered showers. It will be another mild
night with a southerly breezy persisting, with low temps in the
60s.

Tuesday is expected to be the most active day of the week in
terms of convective potential. At the surface, a cold front will
gradually push eastward across the region during the afternoon and
evening. Aloft, a positive to neutral tilt upper level trough is
forecast to deepen just to our west over the eastern Great Lakes.
Height falls and cyclonic vorticity advection aloft combined with
low level convergence along the cold front should result in fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially during
the afternoon across eastern NY spreading eastward to western New
England by evening.

There is a marginal risk for some of the thunderstorms to become
severe if sufficient instability can develop. Some breaks of
sunshine are expected ahead of the cold front, but it is unclear
how unstable it will get as model guidance differs with the GFS
indicating 500-1500 J/Kg of SBCAPE, while the NAM has more robust
values of around 1500-3000 J/Kg. Should more sunshine materialize,
the NAM values would be reasonable, but this is uncertain at this
time. Deep layer shear will be increasing to around 25-40 kt, so
organized severe storms will be possible given ample buoyancy.
Will mention the marginal risk in HWO.

Showers will continue Tuesday night, as the cold front only
gradually makes eastward progress, while the upper level trough
axis remains to our west with a continued cyclonic flow.
Coverage/intensity of thunder should decrease by late evening
though as instability is forecast to wane.

Will continue to mention chance pops for scattered showers with
isolated thunder for Wednesday, siding with the slower ECMWF/NAM
guidance compared to faster GFS. The upper level trough may become
a closed low, which would slow its progress. The more progressive
GFS continues to show and open wave. Max temps Wednesday should be
cooler than recent days, but close to normal for late June.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period is expected to start out with fair weather and
seasonably warm temperatures. At the surface high pressure is
expected to be over the region. While aloft, the region is
expected to be between short wave trough.

A cold front will be on the approaches from the northwest as we
close out the work week and head into the long holiday weekend.
Convection is expected as the front approaches on Friday and
crosses the region Friday night.

Guidance indicates an upper level low should develop over the
Great Lakes region with it becoming stacked. This stacked low then
is modeled to move gradually eastward across eastern Canada over
the holiday weekend as short waves rotating about it maintaining
an upper level trough over the region. At this time, it appears
the weather across the local area should be fair for the holiday
weekend as the upper low is modeled to remain far enough to our
north while the cold front that moves through is forecast to stall
far enough to our south. A wave of low pressure is expected to
move eastward along this boundary. Subtle changes in the expected
locations of these features will result in changes to a fair
weather forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will weaken and slide
offshore today. In the meantime, a cold front will approach from
the west. Heights will fall across the region however upper level
support will remain well to the west. convection to move across
across the local area today impacting the TAF sites mainly during
the afternoon into the evening.

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail through much of the evening.
MVFR conditions are expected to develop overnight initially due
to ceilings then some fog is expected to form.

South-southwest flow will increasing to 10 to 12 knots with some
gusts into the 20s. The winds will decrease in the evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 50 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 80 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Tuesday
will be around 50 to 60 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 10 to 15 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. Southerly winds will decrease to 5 to 10 mph
tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be south-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today, as a
weakening frontal boundary approaches. There will be a better
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Two day rainfall totals
could reach one half to one inch, with some isolated higher
amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271414
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1014 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening mid-level trough across the eastern Great Lakes and
southeastern Ontario will bring an increase in clouds today along
with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best
chance for rainfall will be across northern New York this morning.
Temperatures will not be as hot as Sunday, but afternoon highs
will still reach the low to mid 80s in most sections. Moderate south
to southwest winds are expected today, and will bring a slight
increase in humidity levels to the region. A slow- moving surface
cold front and stronger mid-level trough will move into the North
Country for Tuesday, with the potential for more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. The strongest thunderstorm
activity is expected from the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks
eastward across Vermont, and storms could produce heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1014 AM EDT Monday...Minor updates made to previous
forecast which is in good shape for the remainder of today. Pre-
frontal trough moving into the North Country this morning is
providing a few light rain showers and/or sprinkles falling out of
a mid-cloud deck. Accumulations will be light to nil, so shouldn`t
impact any outdoor activities. Cloud cover though has kept temps
rather steady this morning in the upper 60s to low 70s, and a
slight drop is likely as the "rain" passes through, but increasing
sunshine this afternoon should bump us up to previous forecast
highs of mid 70s to low 80s in the 3-5PM time-frame.

Previous Discussion...
Elongated NE-SW oriented 850-700mb trough axis and associated
moist axis extends from swrn Quebec across the St. Lawrence Valley
and across wrn NY/nwrn PA at 11Z. This trough is in advance of
closed low well north of Lake Superior (which will be responsible
for Tuesday`s more active weather), and prevailing mid-level ridge
still in place across much of central and ern New England.
Consistent with previous forecasts, it continues to appear that
this mid-level trough will shift ewd across the North Country
through early afternoon, but gradually weaken as it encounters the
downstream ridge across New England. Low- level convergence
likewise appears limited, with 850mb thermal ridge (+14 to +15C)
still in place across ern NY into VT this afternoon, and uniform
S-SW gradient flow at low- levels. High resolution models,
including BTV4 and 12km WRFs and NCEP 4km- NAM are in good
agreement bringing existing showers into the St. Lawrence Valley
area through about 14z, and then gradually becoming less
widespread through the daylight hours. Will see some light
rain/sprinkles from prevailing mid- deck move across the
Adirondacks into the Champlain valley 13-15z, and into central VT
by 18Z. Prevailing S-SW flow (10-15mph, with gusts 25 mph
especially in the Champlain Valley) does bump dewpoints into the
lower 60s by early to mid aftn across the wrn half of the forecast
area. As such, will need to watch developing axis of SBCAPE
(500-1000 J/kg) mainly across nrn NY, with potential for a few
thunderstorms developing this afternoon. Large-scale dynamics are
generally lacking given weak low-level convergence, and ewd push
of weakening trough...but orographic influences may be sufficient
to get a few showers/tstms going across especially the nrn
Adirondacks this afternoon. Carried chance tstms across nrn NY and
slight chance for VT counties, though not expecting any severe
activity. QPF amts highest St. Lawrence into Franklin County
(0.10-0.20" this morning), but generally 0.10" or less further
east given anticipated downward trends. One hour precip totaled
0.07" at KMSS between 10-11Z. The increase in mid-level clouds
will result in high temperatures not quite as hot as yesterday,
but still expecting values mainly low-mid 80s.

Upper ridge begins to break down tonight with mid-level height
falls moving into the region as closed low digs into the nrn Great
Lakes region. Sfc cold front remains well upstream of the region,
approaching the Ottawa valley toward daybreak. Should be a warm
night with prevailing s-sw winds and mid-level clouds. Lows
generally mid-upr 60s. Can`t rule out isold rain showers in
developing cyclonic flow regime, but better forcing for ascent
holds off until the daylight hrs Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 444 AM EDT Monday...On Tuesday, conditions start out mainly
dry. Have used BTV 4 km model for timing of development of showers
and thunderstorms. This model showing showers and storms
developing over northern New York between 16z-18z on Tuesday, with
storms developing over the western slopes of the Green Mountains
around 18z Tuesday. Models showing a sharp upper trough
approaching the region from the Great lakes On Tuesday. Also, GFS
model showing 40-45 knots in the 0-6km layer of bulk shear, along
with surface based GFS model capes of 1000 to greater than 2000
j/kg by Tuesday afternoon. Have continued to use enhanced wording
from the Adirondacks eastward to Vermont for Tuesday afternoon,
with gusty winds, small hail and heavy downpours possible, mainly
from the Adirondacks eastward to Vermont. SPC has most of the
region in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Expecting most of the shower and thunderstorm activity to be over
eastern and southern Vermont by early Tuesday evening, based on
the BTV 4km model. Given rather dry antecedent conditions across
the region, am not expecting any flash flooding issues at this
time, with main threats being from gusty winds and hail. Expecting
thunderstorm activity to diminish early Tuesday evening, with the
loss of daytime surface heating.

The upper trough will move across the region on Wednesday, so have
kept in a chance of rain showers in the forecast. This upper
trough will be eats of the region by Wednesday night, so have gone
with a dry forecast for Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 444 AM EDT Monday...Drier weather will be over the region
Thursday and Thursday night, as a weak ridge of high pressure will
be over the region. Friday also starts out dry, with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms developing Friday afternoon and
continuing into Friday night as a cold front move east from the
eastern Great Lakes. An upper trough will be over the region on
Saturday, so will continue with a chance for rain showers.
expecting mainly dry conditions on Sunday, as a weak area of high
pressure slides east from the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR through the TAF period, but
weakening mid-level trough will progress ewd across nrn NY
bringing scattered showers this morning...and threat for isold
tstms early-mid afternoon. As such, will see development of mid-
level ceilings, and can`t rule out brief intervals of MVFR/IFR
conditions with any heavier showers/tstms. That activity should
become more isold this afternoon as trough weakens across VT, with
just a slight chance of -RW/-TSRA. Given timing/coverage concerns,
have carried VCSH for most of the TAF locations attm, with
prevailing -SHRA 12-14Z for KMSS/KSLK based on radar trends early
this morning. S-SW gradient flow will continue throughout the
period...generally 10-15kts, with gusts 18-20kt and locally up to
25-26kt at BTV with peak gusts expected mid to late afternoon.

Outlook 12z Tuesday through Friday...A slow moving cold front and
associated upper level trough bring widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday...with locally strong/severe storms
possible mainly from the Champlain Valley ewd. Any heavier
showers/tstms have the potential to bring brief vsby/cig
reductions into MVFR/IFR range. Upper trough lingers across NY and
New England Tuesday night and Wednesday with -SHRA expected. May
see brief MVFR conditions, but prevailing VFR expected. Upper
system clears the area by Wednesday night. Weak high pressure
building in from the west will bring patchy dense fog/LIFR MPV/SLK
06-12Z Thursday and possibly again 06-12z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Will maintain lake wind advisory through the day Monday with South
winds 15-25kts across much of Lake Champlain. It appears winds
will continue 15-25kts through about midnight, then gradient flow
diminishes and may be able to drop the advisory for the pre-dawn
hours on Tuesday. Boaters should also be advised that the
approaching surface cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms vicinity of Lake Champlain Tuesday afternoon, with a
few strong storms possible.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Banacos




000
FXUS61 KALY 271343
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
943 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 930 AM EDT...Line of showers and some embedded thunderstorms
per the NLDN were into portions of the Adirondack Park and western
Mohawk Valley. Per extrapolation of these showers in conjunction
with the HRRR/HRRRX, we will time these showers/storms expanding
further eastward with most of the Hudson Valley region by early
afternoon under cloudy conditions with scattered convection as
weak surface trough passes through. As for temperatures, after a
mild start to the day, there remains enough sun over the eastern
2/3rds of the local county warning area to keep the expected high
temperatures (mainly upper 70s to mid 80s).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned pre-frontal trough will stall and become
diffuse near western New England tonight. So will only mention
isolated to widely scattered showers. It will be another mild
night with a southerly breezy persisting, with low temps in the
60s.

Tuesday is expected to be the most active day of the week in
terms of convective potential. At the surface, a cold front will
gradually push eastward across the region during the afternoon and
evening. Aloft, a positive to neutral tilt upper level trough is
forecast to deepen just to our west over the eastern Great Lakes.
Height falls and cyclonic vorticity advection aloft combined with
low level convergence along the cold front should result in fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially during
the afternoon across eastern NY spreading eastward to western New
England by evening.

There is a marginal risk for some of the thunderstorms to become
severe if sufficient instability can develop. Some breaks of
sunshine are expected ahead of the cold front, but it is unclear
how unstable it will get as model guidance differs with the GFS
indicating 500-1500 J/Kg of SBCAPE, while the NAM has more robust
values of around 1500-3000 J/Kg. Should more sunshine materialize,
the NAM values would be reasonable, but this is uncertain at this
time. Deep layer shear will be increasing to around 25-40 kt, so
organized severe storms will be possible given ample buoyancy.
Will mention the marginal risk in HWO.

Showers will continue Tuesday night, as the cold front only
gradually makes eastward progress, while the upper level trough
axis remains to our west with a continued cyclonic flow.
Coverage/intensity of thunder should decrease by late evening
though as instability is forecast to wane.

Will continue to mention chance pops for scattered showers with
isolated thunder for Wednesday, siding with the slower ECMWF/NAM
guidance compared to faster GFS. The upper level trough may become
a closed low, which would slow its progress. The more progressive
GFS continues to show and open wave. Max temps Wednesday should be
cooler than recent days, but close to normal for late June.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period is expected to start out with fair weather and
seasonably warm temperatures. At the surface high pressure is
expected to be over the region. While aloft, the region is
expected to be between short wave trough.

A cold front will be on the approaches from the northwest as we
close out the work week and head into the long holiday weekend.
Convection is expected as the front approaches on Friday and
crosses the region Friday night.

Guidance indicates an upper level low should develop over the
Great Lakes region with it becoming stacked. This stacked low then
is modeled to move gradually eastward across eastern Canada over
the holiday weekend as short waves rotating about it maintaining
an upper level trough over the region. At this time, it appears
the weather across the local area should be fair for the holiday
weekend as the upper low is modeled to remain far enough to our
north while the cold front that moves through is forecast to stall
far enough to our south. A wave of low pressure is expected to
move eastward along this boundary. Subtle changes in the expected
locations of these features will result in changes to a fair
weather forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will weaken and slide
offshore today. In the meantime, a cold front will approach from
the west. Heights will fall across the region however upper level
support will remain well to the west. convection to move across
across the local area today impacting the TAF sites mainly during
the afternoon into the evening.

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail through much of the evening.
MVFR conditions are expected to develop overnight initially due
to ceilings then some fog is expected to form.

South-southwest flow will increasing to 10 to 12 knots with some
gusts into the 20s. The winds will decrease in the evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 50 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 80 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Tuesday
will be around 50 to 60 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 10 to 15 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. Southerly winds will decrease to 5 to 10 mph
tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be south-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today, as a
weakening frontal boundary approaches. There will be a better
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Two day rainfall totals
could reach one half to one inch, with some isolated higher
amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV

www.weather.gov/albany




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271127
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
727 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening mid-level trough across the eastern Great Lakes and
southeastern Ontario will bring an increase in clouds today along
with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best
chance for rainfall will be across northern New York this morning.
Temperatures will not be as hot as Sunday, but afternoon highs
will still reach the low to mid 80s in most sections. Moderate south
to southwest winds are expected today, and will bring a slight
increase in humidity levels to the region. A slow- moving surface
cold front and stronger mid-level trough will move into the North
Country for Tuesday, with the potential for more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. The strongest thunderstorm
activity is expected from the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks
eastward across Vermont, and storms could produce heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 710 AM EDT Monday...Elongated NE-SW oriented 850-700mb
trough axis and associated moist axis extends from swrn Quebec
across the St. Lawrence Valley and across wrn NY/nwrn PA at 11Z.
This trough is in advance of closed low well north of Lake
Superior (which will be responsible for Tuesday`s more active
weather), and prevailing mid-level ridge still in place across
much of central and ern New England. Consistent with previous
forecasts, it continues to appear that this mid-level trough will
shift ewd across the North Country through early afternoon, but
gradually weaken as it encounters the downstream ridge across New
England. Low- level convergence likewise appears limited, with
850mb thermal ridge (+14 to +15C) still in place across ern NY
into VT this afternoon, and uniform S-SW gradient flow at low-
levels. High resolution models, including BTV4 and 12km WRFs and
NCEP 4km-NAM are in good agreement bringing existing showers into
the St. Lawrence Valley area through about 14z, and then gradually
becoming less widespread through the daylight hours. Will see some
light rain/sprinkles from prevailing mid- deck move across the
Adirondacks into the Champlain valley 13-15z, and into central VT
by 18Z. Prevailing S-SW flow (10-15mph, with gusts 25 mph
especially in the Champlain Valley) does bump dewpoints into the
lower 60s by early to mid aftn across the wrn half of the forecast
area. As such, will need to watch developing axis of SBCAPE
(500-1000 J/kg) mainly across nrn NY, with potential for a few
thunderstorms developing this afternoon. Large-scale dynamics are
generally lacking given weak low-level convergence, and ewd push
of weakening trough...but orographic influences may be sufficient
to get a few showers/tstms going across especially the nrn
Adirondacks this afternoon. Carried chance tstms across nrn NY and
slight chance for VT counties, though not expecting any severe
activity. QPF amts highest St. Lawrence into Franklin County
(0.10-0.20" this morning), but generally 0.10" or less further
east given anticipated downward trends. One hour precip totaled
0.07" at KMSS between 10-11Z. The increase in mid-level clouds
will result in high temperatures not quite as hot as yesterday,
but still expecting values mainly low-mid 80s.

Upper ridge begins to break down tonight with mid-level height
falls moving into the region as closed low digs into the nrn Great
Lakes region. Sfc cold front remains well upstream of the region,
approaching the Ottawa valley toward daybreak. Should be a warm
night with prevailing s-sw winds and mid-level clouds. Lows
generally mid-upr 60s. Can`t rule out isold rain showers in
developing cyclonic flow regime, but better forcing for ascent
holds off until the daylight hrs Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 444 AM EDT Monday...On Tuesday, conditions start out mainly
dry. Have used BTV 4 km model for timing of development of showers
and thunderstorms. This model showing showers and storms
developing over northern New York between 16z-18z on Tuesday, with
storms developing over the western slopes of the Green Mountains
around 18z Tuesday. Models showing a sharp upper trough
approaching the region from the Great lakes On Tuesday. Also, GFS
model showing 40-45 knots in the 0-6km layer of bulk shear, along
with surface based GFS model capes of 1000 to greater than 2000
j/kg by Tuesday afternoon. Have continued to use enhanced wording
from the Adirondacks eastward to Vermont for Tuesday afternoon,
with gusty winds, small hail and heavy downpours possible, mainly
from the Adirondacks eastward to Vermont. SPC has most of the
region in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Expecting most of the shower and thunderstorm activity to be over
eastern and southern Vermont by early Tuesday evening, based on
the BTV 4km model. Given rather dry antecedent conditions across
the region, am not expecting any flash flooding issues at this
time, with main threats being from gusty winds and hail. Expecting
thunderstorm activity to diminish early Tuesday evening, with the
loss of daytime surface heating.

The upper trough will move across the region on Wednesday, so have
kept in a chance of rain showers in the forecast. This upper
trough will be eats of the region by Wednesday night, so have gone
with a dry forecast for Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 444 AM EDT Monday...Drier weather will be over the region
Thursday and Thursday night, as a weak ridge of high pressure will
be over the region. Friday also starts out dry, with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms developing Friday afternoon and
continuing into Friday night as a cold front move east from the
eastern Great Lakes. An upper trough will be over the region on
Saturday, so will continue with a chance for rain showers.
expecting mainly dry conditions on Sunday, as a weak area of high
pressure slides east from the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR through the TAF period, but
weakening mid-level trough will progress ewd across nrn NY
bringing scattered showers this morning...and threat for isold
tstms early-mid afternoon. As such, will see development of mid-
level ceilings, and can`t rule out brief intervals of MVFR/IFR
conditions with any heavier showers/tstms. That activity should
become more isold this afternoon as trough weakens across VT, with
just a slight chance of -RW/-TSRA. Given timing/coverage concerns,
have carried VCSH for most of the TAF locations attm, with
prevailing -SHRA 12-14Z for KMSS/KSLK based on radar trends early
this morning. S-SW gradient flow will continue throughout the
period...generally 10-15kts, with gusts 18-20kt and locally up to
25-26kt at BTV with peak gusts expected mid to late afternoon.

Outlook 12z Tuesday through Friday...A slow moving cold front and
associated upper level trough bring widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday...with locally strong/severe storms
possible mainly from the Champlain Valley ewd. Any heavier
showers/tstms have the potential to bring brief vsby/cig
reductions into MVFR/IFR range. Upper trough lingers across NY and
New England Tuesday night and Wednesday with -SHRA expected. May
see brief MVFR conditions, but prevailing VFR expected. Upper
system clears the area by Wednesday night. Weak high pressure
building in from the west will bring patchy dense fog/LIFR MPV/SLK
06-12Z Thursday and possibly again 06-12z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Will maintain lake wind advisory through the day Monday with South
winds 15-25kts across much of Lake Champlain. It appears winds
will continue 15-25kts through about midnight, then gradient flow
diminishes and may be able to drop the advisory for the pre-dawn
hours on Tuesday. Boaters should also be advised that the
approaching surface cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms vicinity of Lake Champlain Tuesday afternoon, with a
few strong storms possible.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
A faulty switch is causing an issue with dissemination of radar
data from KCXX and KTYX to non FAA comms lines. We hope to have
these data restored by 13Z. Thanks for your patience.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Banacos
EQUIPMENT...Banacos




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271127
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
727 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening mid-level trough across the eastern Great Lakes and
southeastern Ontario will bring an increase in clouds today along
with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best
chance for rainfall will be across northern New York this morning.
Temperatures will not be as hot as Sunday, but afternoon highs
will still reach the low to mid 80s in most sections. Moderate south
to southwest winds are expected today, and will bring a slight
increase in humidity levels to the region. A slow- moving surface
cold front and stronger mid-level trough will move into the North
Country for Tuesday, with the potential for more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. The strongest thunderstorm
activity is expected from the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks
eastward across Vermont, and storms could produce heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 710 AM EDT Monday...Elongated NE-SW oriented 850-700mb
trough axis and associated moist axis extends from swrn Quebec
across the St. Lawrence Valley and across wrn NY/nwrn PA at 11Z.
This trough is in advance of closed low well north of Lake
Superior (which will be responsible for Tuesday`s more active
weather), and prevailing mid-level ridge still in place across
much of central and ern New England. Consistent with previous
forecasts, it continues to appear that this mid-level trough will
shift ewd across the North Country through early afternoon, but
gradually weaken as it encounters the downstream ridge across New
England. Low- level convergence likewise appears limited, with
850mb thermal ridge (+14 to +15C) still in place across ern NY
into VT this afternoon, and uniform S-SW gradient flow at low-
levels. High resolution models, including BTV4 and 12km WRFs and
NCEP 4km-NAM are in good agreement bringing existing showers into
the St. Lawrence Valley area through about 14z, and then gradually
becoming less widespread through the daylight hours. Will see some
light rain/sprinkles from prevailing mid- deck move across the
Adirondacks into the Champlain valley 13-15z, and into central VT
by 18Z. Prevailing S-SW flow (10-15mph, with gusts 25 mph
especially in the Champlain Valley) does bump dewpoints into the
lower 60s by early to mid aftn across the wrn half of the forecast
area. As such, will need to watch developing axis of SBCAPE
(500-1000 J/kg) mainly across nrn NY, with potential for a few
thunderstorms developing this afternoon. Large-scale dynamics are
generally lacking given weak low-level convergence, and ewd push
of weakening trough...but orographic influences may be sufficient
to get a few showers/tstms going across especially the nrn
Adirondacks this afternoon. Carried chance tstms across nrn NY and
slight chance for VT counties, though not expecting any severe
activity. QPF amts highest St. Lawrence into Franklin County
(0.10-0.20" this morning), but generally 0.10" or less further
east given anticipated downward trends. One hour precip totaled
0.07" at KMSS between 10-11Z. The increase in mid-level clouds
will result in high temperatures not quite as hot as yesterday,
but still expecting values mainly low-mid 80s.

Upper ridge begins to break down tonight with mid-level height
falls moving into the region as closed low digs into the nrn Great
Lakes region. Sfc cold front remains well upstream of the region,
approaching the Ottawa valley toward daybreak. Should be a warm
night with prevailing s-sw winds and mid-level clouds. Lows
generally mid-upr 60s. Can`t rule out isold rain showers in
developing cyclonic flow regime, but better forcing for ascent
holds off until the daylight hrs Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 444 AM EDT Monday...On Tuesday, conditions start out mainly
dry. Have used BTV 4 km model for timing of development of showers
and thunderstorms. This model showing showers and storms
developing over northern New York between 16z-18z on Tuesday, with
storms developing over the western slopes of the Green Mountains
around 18z Tuesday. Models showing a sharp upper trough
approaching the region from the Great lakes On Tuesday. Also, GFS
model showing 40-45 knots in the 0-6km layer of bulk shear, along
with surface based GFS model capes of 1000 to greater than 2000
j/kg by Tuesday afternoon. Have continued to use enhanced wording
from the Adirondacks eastward to Vermont for Tuesday afternoon,
with gusty winds, small hail and heavy downpours possible, mainly
from the Adirondacks eastward to Vermont. SPC has most of the
region in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Expecting most of the shower and thunderstorm activity to be over
eastern and southern Vermont by early Tuesday evening, based on
the BTV 4km model. Given rather dry antecedent conditions across
the region, am not expecting any flash flooding issues at this
time, with main threats being from gusty winds and hail. Expecting
thunderstorm activity to diminish early Tuesday evening, with the
loss of daytime surface heating.

The upper trough will move across the region on Wednesday, so have
kept in a chance of rain showers in the forecast. This upper
trough will be eats of the region by Wednesday night, so have gone
with a dry forecast for Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 444 AM EDT Monday...Drier weather will be over the region
Thursday and Thursday night, as a weak ridge of high pressure will
be over the region. Friday also starts out dry, with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms developing Friday afternoon and
continuing into Friday night as a cold front move east from the
eastern Great Lakes. An upper trough will be over the region on
Saturday, so will continue with a chance for rain showers.
expecting mainly dry conditions on Sunday, as a weak area of high
pressure slides east from the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR through the TAF period, but
weakening mid-level trough will progress ewd across nrn NY
bringing scattered showers this morning...and threat for isold
tstms early-mid afternoon. As such, will see development of mid-
level ceilings, and can`t rule out brief intervals of MVFR/IFR
conditions with any heavier showers/tstms. That activity should
become more isold this afternoon as trough weakens across VT, with
just a slight chance of -RW/-TSRA. Given timing/coverage concerns,
have carried VCSH for most of the TAF locations attm, with
prevailing -SHRA 12-14Z for KMSS/KSLK based on radar trends early
this morning. S-SW gradient flow will continue throughout the
period...generally 10-15kts, with gusts 18-20kt and locally up to
25-26kt at BTV with peak gusts expected mid to late afternoon.

Outlook 12z Tuesday through Friday...A slow moving cold front and
associated upper level trough bring widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday...with locally strong/severe storms
possible mainly from the Champlain Valley ewd. Any heavier
showers/tstms have the potential to bring brief vsby/cig
reductions into MVFR/IFR range. Upper trough lingers across NY and
New England Tuesday night and Wednesday with -SHRA expected. May
see brief MVFR conditions, but prevailing VFR expected. Upper
system clears the area by Wednesday night. Weak high pressure
building in from the west will bring patchy dense fog/LIFR MPV/SLK
06-12Z Thursday and possibly again 06-12z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Will maintain lake wind advisory through the day Monday with South
winds 15-25kts across much of Lake Champlain. It appears winds
will continue 15-25kts through about midnight, then gradient flow
diminishes and may be able to drop the advisory for the pre-dawn
hours on Tuesday. Boaters should also be advised that the
approaching surface cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms vicinity of Lake Champlain Tuesday afternoon, with a
few strong storms possible.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
A faulty switch is causing an issue with dissemination of radar
data from KCXX and KTYX to non FAA comms lines. We hope to have
these data restored by 13Z. Thanks for your patience.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Banacos
EQUIPMENT...Banacos




000
FXUS61 KALY 271030
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
630 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 630 AM EDT...Most of the area remains mostly sunny at this
time, although clouds are thickening across areas north and west
of the Capital District as a pre-frontal trough approaches from
the eastern Great Lakes. Temps are very warm for early morning,
mainly in the 60s.

A solid band of showers with embedded isolated thunder extends
from near the St. Lawrence valley south and west across
central/western New York. These showers will gradually shift
eastward into mainly the NW half of the area through the morning
hours. Not much surface based instability will develop due to
extensive cloud cover moving in, but some elevated instability
will lead to some embedded thunder. The showers and storms will
tend to decrease in coverage by later in the afternoon and
especially the evening, due to weakening of the trough as it moves
eastward across the area.

Some breaks of sunshine are expected late in the day, which
should help boost max temps into the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned pre-frontal trough will stall and become
diffuse near western New England tonight. So will only mention
isolated to widely scattered showers. It will be another mild
night with a southerly breezy persisting, with low temps in the
60s.

Tuesday is expected to be the most active day of the week in
terms of convective potential. At the surface, a cold front will
gradually push eastward across the region during the afternoon and
evening. Aloft, a positive to neutral tilt upper level trough is
forecast to deepen just to our west over the eastern Great Lakes.
Height falls and cyclonic vorticity advection aloft combined with
low level convergence along the cold front should result in fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially during
the afternoon across eastern NY spreading eastward to western New
England by evening.

There is a marginal risk for some of the thunderstorms to become
severe if sufficient instability can develop. Some breaks of
sunshine are expected ahead of the cold front, but it is unclear
how unstable it will get as model guidance differs with the GFS
indicating 500-1500 J/Kg of SBCAPE, while the NAM has more robust
values of around 1500-3000 J/Kg. Should more sunshine materialize,
the NAM values would be reasonable, but this is uncertain at this
time. Deep layer shear will be increasing to around 25-40 kt, so
organized severe storms will be possible given ample buoyancy.
Will mention the marginal risk in HWO.

Showers will continue Tuesday night, as the cold front only
gradually makes eastward progress, while the upper level trough
axis remains to our west with a continued cyclonic flow.
Coverage/intensity of thunder should decrease by late evening
though as instability is forecast to wane.

Will continue to mention chance pops for scattered showers with
isolated thunder for Wednesday, siding with the slower ECMWF/NAM
guidance compared to faster GFS. The upper level trough may become
a closed low, which would slow its progress. The more progressive
GFS continues to show and open wave. Max temps Wednesday should be
cooler than recent days, but close to normal for late June.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period is expected to start out with fair weather and
seasonably warm temperatures. At the surface high pressure is
expected to be over the region. While aloft, the region is
expected to be between short wave trough.

A cold front will be on the approaches from the northwest as we
close out the work week and head into the long holiday weekend.
Convection is expected as the front approaches on Friday and
crosses the region Friday night.

Guidance indicates an upper level low should develop over the
Great Lakes region with it becoming stacked. This stacked low then
is modeled to move gradually eastward across eastern Canada over
the holiday weekend as short waves rotating about it maintaining
an upper level trough over the region. At this time, it appears
the weather across the local area should be fair for the holiday
weekend as the upper low is modeled to remain far enough to our
north while the cold front that moves through is forecast to stall
far enough to our south. A wave of low pressure is expected to
move eastward along this boundary. Subtle changes in the expected
locations of these features will result in changes to a fair
weather forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will weaken and slide
offshore today. In the meantime, a cold front will approach from
the west. Heights will fall across the region however upper level
support will remain well to the west. convection to move across
across the local area today impacting the TAF sites mainly during
the afternoon into the evening.

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail through much of the evening.
MVFR conditions are expected to develop overnight initially due
to ceilings then some fog is expected to form.

South-southwest flow will increasing to 10 to 12 knots with some
gusts into the 20s. The winds will decrease in the evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 50 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 80 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Tuesday
will be around 50 to 60 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 10 to 15 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. Southerly winds will decrease to 5 to 10 mph
tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be south-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today, as a
weakening frontal boundary approaches. There will be a better
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Two day rainfall totals
could reach one half to one inch, with some isolated higher
amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270902
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
502 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening mid-level trough across the eastern Great Lakes and
southeastern Ontario will bring an increase in clouds today along
with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best
chance for rainfall will be across northern New York this morning.
Temperatures will not be as hot as Sunday, but afternoon highs
will still reach the low to mid 80s in most sections. Moderate south
to southwest winds are expected today, and will bring a slight
increase in humidity levels to the region. A slow- moving surface
cold front and stronger mid-level trough will move into the North
Country for Tuesday, with the potential for more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. The strongest thunderstorm
activity is expected from the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks
eastward across Vermont, and storms could produce heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 451 AM EDT Monday...Elongated NE-SW oriented 850-700mb
trough axis and associated moist axis extends from swrn Quebec
across sern Ontario and into the lower Ohio Valley region early
this morning. This trough is in advance of closed low well north
of Lake Superior (which will be responsible for Tuesday`s more
active weather), and prevailing mid-level ridge still in place
across much of New England. Consistent with previous forecasts, it
continues to appear that this mid-level trough will shift ewd
across the North Country through early afternoon, but gradually
weaken as it encounters the downstream ridge across New England.
Low- level convergence likewise appears limited, with 850mb
thermal ridge (+14 to +15C) still in place across ern NY into VT
this afternoon, and uniform S-SW gradient flow at low-levels. High
resolution models, including BTV4 and 12km WRFs and NCEP 4km- NAM
are in good agreement bringing existing showers into the St.
Lawrence Valley area 09-12Z, and then gradually becoming less
widespread through the daylight hours. Will see some light
rain/sprinkles from prevailing mid- deck move across the
Adirondacks into the Champlain valley 12-15z, and into central VT
by 18Z. Prevailing S-SW flow (10-15mph, with gusts 25 mph
especially in the Champlain Valley) does bump dewpoints into the
lower 60s by early to mid aftn across the wrn half of the forecast
area. As such, will need to watch developing axis of SBCAPE
(500-1000 J/kg) mainly across nrn NY, with potential for a few
thunderstorms developing this afternoon. Large-scale dynamics are
generally lacking given weak low-level convergence, and ewd push
of weakening trough...but orographic influences may be sufficient
to get a few showers/tstms going across especially the nrn
Adirondacks this afternoon. Carried chance tstms across nrn NY and
slight chance for VT counties, though not expecting any severe
activity. QPF amts highest St. Lawrence into Franklin County
(0.10-0.20" this morning), but generally 0.10" or less further
east given anticipated downward trends. The increase in mid- level
clouds will result in high temperatures not quite as hot as
yesterday, but still expecting values mainly low-mid 80s.

Upper ridge begins to break down tonight with mid-level height
falls moving into the region as closed low digs into the nrn Great
Lakes region. Sfc cold front remains well upstream of the region,
approaching the Ottawa valley toward daybreak. Should be a warm
night with prevailing s-sw winds and mid-level clouds. Lows
generally mid-upr 60s. Can`t rule out isold rain showers in
developing cyclonic flow regime, but better forcing for ascent
holds off until the daylight hrs Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 444 AM EDT Monday...On Tuesday, conditions start out mainly
dry. Have used BTV 4 km model for timing of development of showers
and thunderstorms. This model showing showers and storms
developing over northern New York between 16z-18z on Tuesday, with
storms developing over the western slopes of the Green Mountains
around 18z Tuesday. Models showing a sharp upper trough
approaching the region from the Great lakes On Tuesday. Also, GFS
model showing 40-45 knots in the 0-6km layer of bulk shear, along
with surface based GFS model capes of 1000 to greater than 2000
j/kg by Tuesday afternoon. Have continued to use enhanced wording
from the Adirondacks eastward to Vermont for Tuesday afternoon,
with gusty winds, small hail and heavy downpours possible, mainly
from the Adirondacks eastward to Vermont. SPC has most of the
region in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Expecting most of the shower and thunderstorm activity to be over
eastern and southern Vermont by early Tuesday evening, based on
the BTV 4km model. Given rather dry antecedent conditions across
the region, am not expecting any flash flooding issues at this
time, with main threats being from gusty winds and hail. Expecting
thunderstorm activity to diminish early Tuesday evening, with the
loss of daytime surface heating.

The upper trough will move across the region on Wednesday, so have
kept in a chance of rain showers in the forecast. This upper
trough will be eats of the region by Wednesday night, so have gone
with a dry forecast for Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 444 AM EDT Monday...Drier weather will be over the region
Thursday and Thursday night, as a weak ridge of high pressure will
be over the region. Friday also starts out dry, with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms developing Friday afternoon and
continuing into Friday night as a cold front move east from the
eastern Great Lakes. An upper trough will be over the region on
Saturday, so will continue with a chance for rain showers.
expecting mainly dry conditions on Sunday, as a weak area of high
pressure slides east from the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR through the TAF period, but
weakening mid-level trough will progress ewd across nrn NY
bringing scattered showers this morning...and threat for isold
tstms early-mid afternoon. As such, will see development of mid-
level ceilings, and can`t rule out brief intervals of MVFR/IFR
conditions with any of the heavier showers/tstms. That activity
should become more isold this afternoon as trough weakens across
VT, with just a slight chance of -RW/-TSRA. Given timing/coverage
concerns, have carried VCSH for most of the TAF locations attm,
with prevailing -SHRA 08-12Z for KMSS based on radar trends early
this morning. S-SW gradient flow will continue throughout the
period...generally 10-15kts, with gusts 18-20kt and locally up to
25-26kt at BTV with peak gusts expected mid to late afternoon.

Outlook 12z Tuesday through Friday...A slow moving cold front and
associated upper level trough bring widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday...with locally strong/severe storms
possible mainly from the Champlain Valley ewd. Any heavier
showers/tstms have the potential to bring brief vsby/cig
reductions into MVFR/IFR range. Upper trough lingers across NY and
New England Tuesday night and Wednesday with -SHRA expected. May
see brief MVFR conditions, but prevailing VFR expected. Upper
system clears the area by Wednesday night. Weak high pressure
building in from the west will bring patchy dense fog/LIFR MPV/SLK
06-12Z Thursday and possibly again 06-12z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Will maintain lake wind advisory through the day Monday with South
winds 15-25kts across much of Lake Champlain. It appears winds
will continue 15-25kts through about midnight, then gradient flow
diminishes and may be able to drop the advisory for the pre-dawn
hours on Tuesday. Boaters should also be advised that the
approaching surface cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms vicinity of Lake Champlain Tuesday afternoon, with a
few strong storms possible.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Banacos




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270844
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
444 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening mid-level trough across the eastern Great Lakes and
southeastern Ontario will bring an increase in clouds today along
with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best
chance for rainfall will be across northern New York this morning.
Temperatures will not be as hot as Sunday, but afternoon highs
will still reach the low to mid 80s in most sections. Moderate south
to southwest winds are expected today, and will bring a slight
increase in humidity levels to the region. A slow- moving surface
cold front and stronger mid-level trough will move into the North
Country for Tuesday, with the potential for more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. The strongest thunderstorm
activity is expected from the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks
eastward across Vermont, and storms could produce heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 214 AM EDT Monday...Elongated NE-SW oriented 850-700mb
trough axis and associated moist axis extends from swrn Quebec
across sern Ontario and into the lower Ohio Valley region early
this morning. This trough is in advance of closed low well north
of Lake Superior (which will be responsible for Tuesday`s more
active weather), and prevailing mid-level ridge still in place
across much of New England. Consistent with previous forecasts, it
continues to appear that this mid-level trough will shift ewd
across the North Country today, but gradually weaken as it
encounters the downstream ridge across New England. Low-level
convergence likewise appears limited, with 850mb thermal ridge
(+14 to +15C) still in place across ern NY into VT this afternoon,
and uniform S-SW gradient flow at low-levels. High resolution
models, including BTV4 and 12km WRFs and NCEP 4km- NAM are in good
agreement bringing existing showers into the St. Lawrence Valley
area 09-12Z, and then gradually becoming less widespread through
the daylight hours. Will see some light rain/sprinkles from
prevailing mid- deck move across the Adirondacks into the
Champlain valley 12-15z, and into central VT by 18Z. Prevailing
S-SW flow (10-15mph, with gusts 25 mph especially in the Champlain
Valley) does bump dewpoints into the lower 60s by early to mid
aftn across the wrn half of the forecast area. As such, will need
to watch developing axis of SBCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) mainly across
nrn NY, with potential for a few thunderstorms developing this
afternoon. Large-scale dynamics are generally lacking given weak
low-level convergence, and ewd push of weakening trough...but
orographic influences may be sufficient to get a few
showers/tstms going across especially the nrn Adirondacks this
afternoon. Carried chance tstms across nrn NY and slight chance
for VT counties, though not expecting any severe activity. QPF
amts highest St. Lawrence into Franklin County (0.10-0.20" this
morning), but generally 0.10" or less further east given
anticipated downward trends. The increase in mid- level clouds
will result in high temperatures not quite as hot as yesterday,
but still expecting values mainly low-mid 80s.

Upper ridge begins to break down tonight with mid-level height
falls moving into the region as closed low digs into the nrn Great
Lakes region. Sfc cold front remains well upstream of the region,
approaching the Ottawa valley toward daybreak. Should be a warm
night with prevailing s-sw winds and mid-level clouds. Lows
generally mid-upr 60s. Can`t rule out isold rain showers in
developing cyclonic flow regime, but better forcing for ascent
holds off until the daylight hrs Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 444 AM EDT Monday...On Tuesday, conditions start out mainly
dry. Have used BTV 4 km model for timing of development of showers
and thunderstorms. This model showing showers and storms
developing over northern New York between 16z-18z on Tuesday, with
storms developing over the western slopes of the Green Mountains
around 18z Tuesday. Models showing a sharp upper trough
approaching the region from the Great lakes On Tuesday. Also, GFS
model showing 40-45 knots in the 0-6km layer of bulk shear, along
with surface based GFS model capes of 1000 to greater than 2000
j/kg by Tuesday afternoon. Have continued to use enhanced wording
from the Adirondacks eastward to Vermont for Tuesday afternoon,
with gusty winds, small hail and heavy downpours possible, mainly
from the Adirondacks eastward to Vermont. SPC has most of the
region in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Expecting most of the shower and thunderstorm activity to be over
eastern and southern Vermont by early Tuesday evening, based on
the BTV 4km model. Given rather dry antecedent conditions across
the region, am not expecting any flash flooding issues at this
time, with main threats being from gusty winds and hail. Expecting
thunderstorm activity to diminish early Tuesday evening, with the
loss of daytime surface heating.

The upper trough will move across the region on Wednesday, so have
kept in a chance of rain showers in the forecast. This upper
trough will be eats of the region by Wednesday night, so have gone
with a dry forecast for Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 444 AM EDT Monday...Drier weather will be over the region
Thursday and Thursday night, as a weak ridge of high pressure will
be over the region. Friday also starts out dry, with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms developing Friday afternoon and
continuing into Friday night as a cold front move east from the
eastern Great Lakes. An upper trough will be over the region on
Saturday, so will continue with a chance for rain showers.
expecting mainly dry conditions on Sunday, as a weak area of high
pressure slides east from the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR through the TAF period, but
weakening mid-level trough will progress ewd across nrn NY
bringing scattered showers this morning...and threat for isold
tstms early-mid afternoon. As such, will see development of mid-
level ceilings, and can`t rule out brief intervals of MVFR/IFR
conditions with any of the heavier showers/tstms. That activity
should become more isold this afternoon as trough weakens across
VT, with just a slight chance of -RW/-TSRA. Given timing/coverage
concerns, have carried VCSH for most of the TAF locations attm,
with prevailing -SHRA 08-12Z for KMSS based on radar trends early
this morning. S-SW gradient flow will continue throughout the
period...generally 10-15kts, with gusts 18-20kt and locally up to
25-26kt at BTV with peak gusts expected mid to late afternoon.

Outlook 12z Tuesday through Friday...A slow moving cold front and
associated upper level trough bring widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday...with locally strong/severe storms
possible mainly from the Champlain Valley ewd. Any heavier
showers/tstms have the potential to bring brief vsby/cig
reductions into MVFR/IFR range. Upper trough lingers across NY and
New England Tuesday night and Wednesday with -SHRA expected. May
see brief MVFR conditions, but prevailing VFR expected. Upper
system clears the area by Wednesday night. Weak high pressure
building in from the west will bring patchy dense fog/LIFR MPV/SLK
06-12Z Thursday and possibly again 06-12z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Will maintain lake wind advisory through the day Monday with South
winds 15-25kts across much of Lake Champlain. It appears winds
will continue 15-25kts through about midnight, then gradient flow
diminishes and may be able to drop the advisory for the pre-dawn
hours on Tuesday. Boaters should also be advised that the
approaching surface cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms vicinity of Lake Champlain Tuesday afternoon, with a
few strong storms possible.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Banacos




000
FXUS61 KALY 270820
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
420 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 400 AM EDT...Most of the area remains mainly clear early
this morning, although clouds are thickening across areas north
and west of the Capital District as a pre-frontal trough
approaches from the eastern Great Lakes.

A solid band of showers with embedded isolated thunder extends
from central/eastern Lake Ontario south and west across western
New York state. These showers will gradually shift eastward into
mainly the NW half of the area through the morning hours. Not much
surface based instability will develop due to extensive cloud
cover moving in, but some elevated instability will lead to some
embedded thunder. The showers and storms will tend to decrease in
coverage by later in the afternoon and especially the evening, due
to weakening of the trough as it moves across the area.

Some breaks of sunshine are expected late in the day, which
should help boost max temps into the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned pre-frontal trough will stall and become
diffuse near western New England tonight. So will only mention
isolated to widely scattered showers. It will be another mild
night with a southerly breezy persisting, with low temps in the
60s.

Tuesday is expected to be the most active day of the week in
terms of convective potential. At the surface, a cold front will
gradually push eastward across the region during the afternoon and
evening. Aloft, a positive to neutral tilt upper level trough is
forecast to deepen just to our west over the eastern Great Lakes.
Height falls and cyclonic vorticity advection aloft combined with
low level convergence along the cold front should result in fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially during
the afternoon across eastern NY spreading eastward to western New
England by evening.

There is a marginal risk for some of the thunderstorms to become
severe if sufficient instability can develop. Some breaks of
sunshine are expected ahead of the cold front, but it is unclear
how unstable it will get as model guidance differs with the GFS
indicating 500-1500 J/Kg of SBCAPE, while the NAM has more robust
values of around 1500-3000 J/Kg. Should more sunshine materialize,
the NAM values would be reasonable, but this is uncertain at this
time. Deep layer shear will be increasing to around 25-40 kt, so
organized severe storms will be possible given ample buoyancy.
Will mention the marginal risk in HWO.

Showers will continue Tuesday night, as the cold front only
gradually makes eastward progress, while the upper level trough
axis remains to our west with a continued cyclonic flow.
Coverage/intensity of thunder should decrease by late evening
though as instability is forecast to wane.

Will continue to mention chance pops for scattered showers with
isolated thunder for Wednesday, siding with the slower ECMWF/NAM
guidance compared to faster GFS. The upper level trough may become
a closed low, which would slow its progress. The more progressive
GFS continues to show and open wave. Max temps Wednesday should be
cooler than recent days, but close to normal for late June.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period is expected to start out with fair weather and
seasonably warm temperatures. At the surface high pressure is
expected to be over the region. While aloft, the region is
expected to be between short wave trough.

A cold front will be on the approaches from the northwest as we
close out the work week and head into the long holiday weekend.
Convection is expected as the front approaches on Friday and
crosses the region Friday night.

Guidance indicates an upper level low should develop over the
Great Lakes region with it becoming stacked. This stacked low then
is modeled to move gradually eastward across eastern Canada over
the holiday weekend as short waves rotating about it maintaining
an upper level trough over the region. At this time, it appears
the weather across the local area should be fair for the holiday
weekend as the upper low is modeled to remain far enough to our
north while the cold front that moves through is forecast to stall
far enough to our south. A wave of low pressure is expected to
move eastward along this boundary. Subtle changes in the expected
locations of these features will result in changes to a fair
weather forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will weaken and slide
offshore today. In the meantime, a cold front will approach from
the west. Heights will fall across the region however upper level
support will remain well to the west. Expecting some convection to
move into/develop across the local area today particularly during
the afternoon and evening.

Expecting mainly VFR conditions to prevail through much of the
evening. Exception would be the possibility of some mvfr-ifr fog
early this morning at KPSF and KGFL. MVFR conditions are expected
to develop mainly due to ceilings overnight.

Southerly wind will continue at KALB overnight increasing after
sunrise to around 12 knots. Winds will become gusty with gusts
into the 20s. At KGFL, KPOU and KPSF light and variable to calm
winds for the overnight with a south-southwest flow developing
after sunrise. Southerly winds increasing to around 10 knots with
some gusts into the teens. The winds will decrease in the evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 50 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 80 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Tuesday
will be around 50 to 60 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 10 to 15 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. Southerly winds will decrease to 5 to 10 mph
tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be south-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today, as a
weakening frontal boundary approaches. There will be a better
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Two day rainfall totals
could reach one half to one inch, with some isolated higher
amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270640
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
240 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening mid-level trough across the eastern Great Lakes and
southeastern Ontario will bring an increase in clouds today along
with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best
chance for rainfall will be across northern New York this morning.
Temperatures will not be as hot as Sunday, but afternoon highs
will still reach the low to mid 80s in most sections. Moderate south
to southwest winds are expected today, and will bring a slight
increase in humidity levels to the region. A slow- moving surface
cold front and stronger mid-level trough will move into the North
Country for Tuesday, with the potential for more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. The strongest thunderstorm
activity is expected from the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks
eastward across Vermont, and storms could produce heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 214 AM EDT Monday...Elongated NE-SW oriented 850-700mb
trough axis and associated moist axis extends from swrn Quebec
across sern Ontario and into the lower Ohio Valley region early
this morning. This trough is in advance of closed low well north
of Lake Superior (which will be responsible for Tuesday`s more
active weather), and prevailing mid-level ridge still in place
across much of New England. Consistent with previous forecasts, it
continues to appear that this mid-level trough will shift ewd
across the North Country today, but gradually weaken as it
encounters the downstream ridge across New England. Low-level
convergence likewise appears limited, with 850mb thermal ridge
(+14 to +15C) still in place across ern NY into VT this afternoon,
and uniform S-SW gradient flow at low-levels. High resolution
models, including BTV4 and 12km WRFs and NCEP 4km- NAM are in good
agreement bringing existing showers into the St. Lawrence Valley
area 09-12Z, and then gradually becoming less widespread through
the daylight hours. Will see some light rain/sprinkles from
prevailing mid- deck move across the Adirondacks into the
Champlain valley 12-15z, and into central VT by 18Z. Prevailing
S-SW flow (10-15mph, with gusts 25 mph especially in the Champlain
Valley) does bump dewpoints into the lower 60s by early to mid
aftn across the wrn half of the forecast area. As such, will need
to watch developing axis of SBCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) mainly across
nrn NY, with potential for a few thunderstorms developing this
afternoon. Large-scale dynamics are generally lacking given weak
low-level convergence, and ewd push of weakening trough...but
orographic influences may be sufficient to get a few
showers/tstms going across especially the nrn Adirondacks this
afternoon. Carried chance tstms across nrn NY and slight chance
for VT counties, though not expecting any severe activity. QPF
amts highest St. Lawrence into Franklin County (0.10-0.20" this
morning), but generally 0.10" or less further east given
anticipated downward trends. The increase in mid- level clouds
will result in high temperatures not quite as hot as yesterday,
but still expecting values mainly low-mid 80s.

Upper ridge begins to break down tonight with mid-level height
falls moving into the region as closed low digs into the nrn Great
Lakes region. Sfc cold front remains well upstream of the region,
approaching the Ottawa valley toward daybreak. Should be a warm
night with prevailing s-sw winds and mid-level clouds. Lows
generally mid-upr 60s. Can`t rule out isold rain showers in
developing cyclonic flow regime, but better forcing for ascent
holds off until the daylight hrs Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...A very active weather day is anticipated on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. The trends
continue to support strong to possibly severe storms from the
northern Adirondacks into all of VT...with a slower frontal
arrival and greater surface heating resulting in higher
instability values. Primary threat would be one inch hail and
scattered damaging winds...along with localized very heavy
rainfall rates which could cause isolated flash flooding.

Strong mid/upper level trof will be across the eastern Great Lakes
by 18z Tuesday...with potent 5h short wave energy ejecting from the
Ohio Valley into the NE CONUS along a surface cold front draped
across our forecast area. GFS/NAM both show a favorable 250mb jet
couplet from right rear quad of 80 knot jet over southern Canada and
nose of left front of approaching jet over Ohio Valley arriving
around 18z Tuesday. This jet energy and approaching height falls
with trof will produce a strong upper level divergent signature
across our region...helping to promote deep layer lift.

Still some disagreement on amount of surface heating and associated
instability...but trends have been slower with frontal arrival and
greater with instability...especially dacks eastward. NAM surface
based CAPE values are between 1400 and 1800 j/kg with GFS 800 to
1200 j/kg...mainly across central/eastern VT. Have noted surface
temps in the lower 80s off the NAM and only lower 70s on the GFS
resulting in the instability difference. Based on progged 850mb
temps between 11C and 13C...and limited 850 to 500mb moisture across
our region in the morning...thinking temps will warm quickly into
the mid 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday...with surface dewpoints well
into the 60s. Noting lower 70s dwpts already pooling ahead of the
boundary across the Ohio Valley today and these will make a run at
us by Tuesday. These higher temps and dwpts will support CAPE values
around 1500 j/kg with pockets near 2000 j/kg by 18z Tuesday...which
combined with deep layer (0 to 6km) shear of 40 to 45 knots will
support organized convection. Based on progged instability and shear
parameters thinking mini supercells will be possible...evolving into
multicell clusters during the afternoon hours. The primary threat
will be damaging winds and one hail...especially from the dacks
eastward between noon and 6 pm on Tuesday.

The orientation of approaching boundary and favorable upper level
jet position...and pw values pooling between 1.50 and 1.75
inches...thinking localized heavy downpours will be
likely...especially as storms evolve into multicell clusters. The
intense rainfall rates associated with deep convection will need
to be watched closely for creating an increased threat for flash
flooding...especially if cells backbuild or train over mountains
terrain. Sounding vector analysis shows the potential for
backbuilding cells...as mid/upper level flow is paralleling the
low level boundary.

Given the increased severe weather threat and potential for
localized heavy downpours we will update HWO and place small
hail...gusty winds...and heavy downpours in zones with this package.
Our thinking is that if models are faster with front and show less
instability on Monday we can remove wording or if trends continue we
can add additional enhancement. Still plenty of time for shear and
instability parameters to change...but Tuesday should be monitored
closely.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...Front finally sweeps across our region overnight
on Tuesday into Weds with some lingering moisture and weak instability
noted near the international border. Thinking this instability along
with some short wave energy from 5h trof will produce scattered
showers on Weds...especially northern sections. Will continue to
mention chance pops...NAM is slower and would suggest greater instability
with a small threat for small hail/gusty winds. My current thinking
is convection on Tuesday and associated outflow boundaries will
help to forward the progression of boundary into NH by Weds. Cooler
and drier weather associated with high pres ridge for Thursday.

A warm southwest flow develops ahead of our next front and
associated energy on Friday. Latest GFS trends show axis of
instability developing across our cwa by 00z Sat with CAPES around
800 j/kg and deep layer shear between 25 and 35 knots. Given
uncertainty on timing of system and amount of instability and
shear...will mention chance for showers and storms at this time.
A few lingering showers are possible on Saturday...before drier
and cooler air arrives by Sunday. Overall temps will be near
normal on Thursday...jump to above normal ahead of boundary on
Friday...before falling back close to normal over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR through the TAF period, but
weakening mid-level trough will progress ewd across nrn NY
bringing scattered showers this morning...and threat for isold
tstms early-mid afternoon. As such, will see development of mid-
level ceilings, and can`t rule out brief intervals of MVFR/IFR
conditions with any of the heavier showers/tstms. That activity
should become more isold this afternoon as trough weakens across
VT, with just a slight chance of -RW/-TSRA. Given timing/coverage
concerns, have carried VCSH for most of the TAF locations attm,
with prevailing -SHRA 08-12Z for KMSS based on radar trends early
this morning. S-SW gradient flow will continue throughout the
period...generally 10-15kts, with gusts 18-20kt and locally up to
25-26kt at BTV with peak gusts expected mid to late afternoon.

Outlook 12z Tuesday through Friday...A slow moving cold front and
associated upper level trough bring widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday...with locally strong/severe storms
possible mainly from the Champlain Valley ewd. Any heavier
showers/tstms have the potential to bring brief vsby/cig
reductions into MVFR/IFR range. Upper trough lingers across NY and
New England Tuesday night and Wednesday with -SHRA expected. May
see brief MVFR conditions, but prevailing VFR expected. Upper
system clears the area by Wednesday night. Weak high pressure
building in from the west will bring patchy dense fog/LIFR MPV/SLK
06-12Z Thursday and possibly again 06-12z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Will maintain lake wind advisory through the day Monday with South
winds 15-25kts across much of Lake Champlain. It appears winds
will continue 15-25kts through about midnight, then gradient flow
diminishes and may be able to drop the advisory for the pre-dawn
hours on Tuesday. Boaters should also be advised that the
approaching surface cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms vicinity of Lake Champlain Tuesday afternoon, with a
few strong storms possible.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Banacos




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270640
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
240 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening mid-level trough across the eastern Great Lakes and
southeastern Ontario will bring an increase in clouds today along
with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best
chance for rainfall will be across northern New York this morning.
Temperatures will not be as hot as Sunday, but afternoon highs
will still reach the low to mid 80s in most sections. Moderate south
to southwest winds are expected today, and will bring a slight
increase in humidity levels to the region. A slow- moving surface
cold front and stronger mid-level trough will move into the North
Country for Tuesday, with the potential for more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. The strongest thunderstorm
activity is expected from the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks
eastward across Vermont, and storms could produce heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 214 AM EDT Monday...Elongated NE-SW oriented 850-700mb
trough axis and associated moist axis extends from swrn Quebec
across sern Ontario and into the lower Ohio Valley region early
this morning. This trough is in advance of closed low well north
of Lake Superior (which will be responsible for Tuesday`s more
active weather), and prevailing mid-level ridge still in place
across much of New England. Consistent with previous forecasts, it
continues to appear that this mid-level trough will shift ewd
across the North Country today, but gradually weaken as it
encounters the downstream ridge across New England. Low-level
convergence likewise appears limited, with 850mb thermal ridge
(+14 to +15C) still in place across ern NY into VT this afternoon,
and uniform S-SW gradient flow at low-levels. High resolution
models, including BTV4 and 12km WRFs and NCEP 4km- NAM are in good
agreement bringing existing showers into the St. Lawrence Valley
area 09-12Z, and then gradually becoming less widespread through
the daylight hours. Will see some light rain/sprinkles from
prevailing mid- deck move across the Adirondacks into the
Champlain valley 12-15z, and into central VT by 18Z. Prevailing
S-SW flow (10-15mph, with gusts 25 mph especially in the Champlain
Valley) does bump dewpoints into the lower 60s by early to mid
aftn across the wrn half of the forecast area. As such, will need
to watch developing axis of SBCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) mainly across
nrn NY, with potential for a few thunderstorms developing this
afternoon. Large-scale dynamics are generally lacking given weak
low-level convergence, and ewd push of weakening trough...but
orographic influences may be sufficient to get a few
showers/tstms going across especially the nrn Adirondacks this
afternoon. Carried chance tstms across nrn NY and slight chance
for VT counties, though not expecting any severe activity. QPF
amts highest St. Lawrence into Franklin County (0.10-0.20" this
morning), but generally 0.10" or less further east given
anticipated downward trends. The increase in mid- level clouds
will result in high temperatures not quite as hot as yesterday,
but still expecting values mainly low-mid 80s.

Upper ridge begins to break down tonight with mid-level height
falls moving into the region as closed low digs into the nrn Great
Lakes region. Sfc cold front remains well upstream of the region,
approaching the Ottawa valley toward daybreak. Should be a warm
night with prevailing s-sw winds and mid-level clouds. Lows
generally mid-upr 60s. Can`t rule out isold rain showers in
developing cyclonic flow regime, but better forcing for ascent
holds off until the daylight hrs Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...A very active weather day is anticipated on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. The trends
continue to support strong to possibly severe storms from the
northern Adirondacks into all of VT...with a slower frontal
arrival and greater surface heating resulting in higher
instability values. Primary threat would be one inch hail and
scattered damaging winds...along with localized very heavy
rainfall rates which could cause isolated flash flooding.

Strong mid/upper level trof will be across the eastern Great Lakes
by 18z Tuesday...with potent 5h short wave energy ejecting from the
Ohio Valley into the NE CONUS along a surface cold front draped
across our forecast area. GFS/NAM both show a favorable 250mb jet
couplet from right rear quad of 80 knot jet over southern Canada and
nose of left front of approaching jet over Ohio Valley arriving
around 18z Tuesday. This jet energy and approaching height falls
with trof will produce a strong upper level divergent signature
across our region...helping to promote deep layer lift.

Still some disagreement on amount of surface heating and associated
instability...but trends have been slower with frontal arrival and
greater with instability...especially dacks eastward. NAM surface
based CAPE values are between 1400 and 1800 j/kg with GFS 800 to
1200 j/kg...mainly across central/eastern VT. Have noted surface
temps in the lower 80s off the NAM and only lower 70s on the GFS
resulting in the instability difference. Based on progged 850mb
temps between 11C and 13C...and limited 850 to 500mb moisture across
our region in the morning...thinking temps will warm quickly into
the mid 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday...with surface dewpoints well
into the 60s. Noting lower 70s dwpts already pooling ahead of the
boundary across the Ohio Valley today and these will make a run at
us by Tuesday. These higher temps and dwpts will support CAPE values
around 1500 j/kg with pockets near 2000 j/kg by 18z Tuesday...which
combined with deep layer (0 to 6km) shear of 40 to 45 knots will
support organized convection. Based on progged instability and shear
parameters thinking mini supercells will be possible...evolving into
multicell clusters during the afternoon hours. The primary threat
will be damaging winds and one hail...especially from the dacks
eastward between noon and 6 pm on Tuesday.

The orientation of approaching boundary and favorable upper level
jet position...and pw values pooling between 1.50 and 1.75
inches...thinking localized heavy downpours will be
likely...especially as storms evolve into multicell clusters. The
intense rainfall rates associated with deep convection will need
to be watched closely for creating an increased threat for flash
flooding...especially if cells backbuild or train over mountains
terrain. Sounding vector analysis shows the potential for
backbuilding cells...as mid/upper level flow is paralleling the
low level boundary.

Given the increased severe weather threat and potential for
localized heavy downpours we will update HWO and place small
hail...gusty winds...and heavy downpours in zones with this package.
Our thinking is that if models are faster with front and show less
instability on Monday we can remove wording or if trends continue we
can add additional enhancement. Still plenty of time for shear and
instability parameters to change...but Tuesday should be monitored
closely.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...Front finally sweeps across our region overnight
on Tuesday into Weds with some lingering moisture and weak instability
noted near the international border. Thinking this instability along
with some short wave energy from 5h trof will produce scattered
showers on Weds...especially northern sections. Will continue to
mention chance pops...NAM is slower and would suggest greater instability
with a small threat for small hail/gusty winds. My current thinking
is convection on Tuesday and associated outflow boundaries will
help to forward the progression of boundary into NH by Weds. Cooler
and drier weather associated with high pres ridge for Thursday.

A warm southwest flow develops ahead of our next front and
associated energy on Friday. Latest GFS trends show axis of
instability developing across our cwa by 00z Sat with CAPES around
800 j/kg and deep layer shear between 25 and 35 knots. Given
uncertainty on timing of system and amount of instability and
shear...will mention chance for showers and storms at this time.
A few lingering showers are possible on Saturday...before drier
and cooler air arrives by Sunday. Overall temps will be near
normal on Thursday...jump to above normal ahead of boundary on
Friday...before falling back close to normal over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR through the TAF period, but
weakening mid-level trough will progress ewd across nrn NY
bringing scattered showers this morning...and threat for isold
tstms early-mid afternoon. As such, will see development of mid-
level ceilings, and can`t rule out brief intervals of MVFR/IFR
conditions with any of the heavier showers/tstms. That activity
should become more isold this afternoon as trough weakens across
VT, with just a slight chance of -RW/-TSRA. Given timing/coverage
concerns, have carried VCSH for most of the TAF locations attm,
with prevailing -SHRA 08-12Z for KMSS based on radar trends early
this morning. S-SW gradient flow will continue throughout the
period...generally 10-15kts, with gusts 18-20kt and locally up to
25-26kt at BTV with peak gusts expected mid to late afternoon.

Outlook 12z Tuesday through Friday...A slow moving cold front and
associated upper level trough bring widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday...with locally strong/severe storms
possible mainly from the Champlain Valley ewd. Any heavier
showers/tstms have the potential to bring brief vsby/cig
reductions into MVFR/IFR range. Upper trough lingers across NY and
New England Tuesday night and Wednesday with -SHRA expected. May
see brief MVFR conditions, but prevailing VFR expected. Upper
system clears the area by Wednesday night. Weak high pressure
building in from the west will bring patchy dense fog/LIFR MPV/SLK
06-12Z Thursday and possibly again 06-12z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Will maintain lake wind advisory through the day Monday with South
winds 15-25kts across much of Lake Champlain. It appears winds
will continue 15-25kts through about midnight, then gradient flow
diminishes and may be able to drop the advisory for the pre-dawn
hours on Tuesday. Boaters should also be advised that the
approaching surface cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms vicinity of Lake Champlain Tuesday afternoon, with a
few strong storms possible.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Banacos




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270613
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
213 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to give way overnight to an approaching
frontal system as we head into the workweek. A chance for showers
and thunderstorms is in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday as the
front moves through. Tuesday`s storms could produce heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail. A chance for showers will linger into
Wednesday, then the week finishes up with high pressure and a dry
forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1031 PM EDT Sunday...Starting to see some showers moving
toward the Saint Lawrence Valley and this will be spreading east
across our area after midnight...which going forecast has covered
well. Increasing clouds and persistent pressure gradient should
keep low temperatures from falling too much with lows in the 60s
to around 70 expected. Again...going forecast in real good shape
and no real changes needed at this time. See previous discussion
below.

Center of the surface high pressure has shifted east, with southerly
low level flow. 500mb ridge lagging behind a bit with the ridge
axis over the area through this evening. Heights begin to fall
later tonight in advance of the next low pressure system. Closed
500 mb low moving east across southern Ontario will open up into a
positively tilted trough through Monday as it continues on eastward.
At the surface an initial prefrontal trough will approach the St.
Lawrence Valley in the pre-dawn hours. POPs increase ahead of the
trough after midnight and spread east through the morning. Best
chances will be Champlain Valley westward. Better moisture/instability/shear
remains further west along actual cold front however, and only general
thunder expected with this first wave.

20-30 kts of south wind around 850 mb tonight and during the day
Monday, however an inversion should keep the stronger winds from
mixing down for much of the time period. Surface gradient winds in
the low teens with gusts in the upper teens to near 20 during the
day Monday.

Radiational cooling we`ve seen the past several nights not a
player tonight as pressure gradient keeps a warm southerly breeze
blowing and lows generally in the 60s. A little cooler on Monday
with lower heights, and 850 mb temps in the mid teens supporting
surface max temps in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...A very active weather day is anticipated on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. The trends
continue to support strong to possibly severe storms from the
northern Adirondacks into all of VT...with a slower frontal
arrival and greater surface heating resulting in higher
instability values. Primary threat would be one inch hail and
scattered damaging winds...along with localized very heavy
rainfall rates which could cause isolated flash flooding.

Strong mid/upper level trof will be across the eastern Great Lakes
by 18z Tuesday...with potent 5h short wave energy ejecting from the
Ohio Valley into the NE CONUS along a surface cold front draped
across our forecast area. GFS/NAM both show a favorable 250mb jet
couplet from right rear quad of 80 knot jet over southern Canada and
nose of left front of approaching jet over Ohio Valley arriving
around 18z Tuesday. This jet energy and approaching height falls
with trof will produce a strong upper level divergent signature
across our region...helping to promote deep layer lift.

Still some disagreement on amount of surface heating and associated
instability...but trends have been slower with frontal arrival and
greater with instability...especially dacks eastward. NAM surface
based CAPE values are between 1400 and 1800 j/kg with GFS 800 to
1200 j/kg...mainly across central/eastern VT. Have noted surface
temps in the lower 80s off the NAM and only lower 70s on the GFS
resulting in the instability difference. Based on progged 850mb
temps between 11C and 13C...and limited 850 to 500mb moisture across
our region in the morning...thinking temps will warm quickly into
the mid 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday...with surface dewpoints well
into the 60s. Noting lower 70s dwpts already pooling ahead of the
boundary across the Ohio Valley today and these will make a run at
us by Tuesday. These higher temps and dwpts will support CAPE values
around 1500 j/kg with pockets near 2000 j/kg by 18z Tuesday...which
combined with deep layer (0 to 6km) shear of 40 to 45 knots will
support organized convection. Based on progged instability and shear
parameters thinking mini supercells will be possible...evolving into
multicell clusters during the afternoon hours. The primary threat
will be damaging winds and one hail...especially from the dacks
eastward between noon and 6 pm on Tuesday.

The orientation of approaching boundary and favorable upper level
jet position...and pw values pooling between 1.50 and 1.75
inches...thinking localized heavy downpours will be
likely...especially as storms evolve into multicell clusters. The
intense rainfall rates associated with deep convection will need
to be watched closely for creating an increased threat for flash
flooding...especially if cells backbuild or train over mountains
terrain. Sounding vector analysis shows the potential for
backbuilding cells...as mid/upper level flow is paralleling the
low level boundary.

Given the increased severe weather threat and potential for
localized heavy downpours we will update HWO and place small
hail...gusty winds...and heavy downpours in zones with this package.
Our thinking is that if models are faster with front and show less
instability on Monday we can remove wording or if trends continue we
can add additional enhancement. Still plenty of time for shear and
instability parameters to change...but Tuesday should be monitored
closely.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...Front finally sweeps across our region overnight
on Tuesday into Weds with some lingering moisture and weak instability
noted near the international border. Thinking this instability along
with some short wave energy from 5h trof will produce scattered
showers on Weds...especially northern sections. Will continue to
mention chance pops...NAM is slower and would suggest greater instability
with a small threat for small hail/gusty winds. My current thinking
is convection on Tuesday and associated outflow boundaries will
help to forward the progression of boundary into NH by Weds. Cooler
and drier weather associated with high pres ridge for Thursday.

A warm southwest flow develops ahead of our next front and
associated energy on Friday. Latest GFS trends show axis of
instability developing across our cwa by 00z Sat with CAPES around
800 j/kg and deep layer shear between 25 and 35 knots. Given
uncertainty on timing of system and amount of instability and
shear...will mention chance for showers and storms at this time.
A few lingering showers are possible on Saturday...before drier
and cooler air arrives by Sunday. Overall temps will be near
normal on Thursday...jump to above normal ahead of boundary on
Friday...before falling back close to normal over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR through the TAF period, but
weakening mid-level trough will progress ewd across nrn NY
bringing scattered showers this morning...and threat for isold
tstms early-mid afternoon. As such, will see development of mid-
level ceilings, and can`t rule out brief intervals of MVFR/IFR
conditions with any of the heavier showers/tstms. That activity
should become more isold this afternoon as trough weakens across
VT, with just a slight chance of -RW/-TSRA. Given timing/coverage
concerns, have carried VCSH for most of the TAF locations attm,
with prevailing -SHRA 08-12Z for KMSS based on radar trends early
this morning. S-SW gradient flow will continue throughout the
period...generally 10-15kts, with gusts 18-20kt and locally up to
25-26kt at BTV with peak gusts expected mid to late afternoon.

Outlook 12z Tuesday through Friday...A slow moving cold front and
associated upper level trough bring widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday...with locally strong/severe storms
possible mainly from the Champlain Valley ewd. Any heavier
showers/tstms have the potential to bring brief vsby/cig
reductions into MVFR/IFR range. Upper trough lingers across NY and
New England Tuesday night and Wednesday with -SHRA expected. May
see brief MVFR conditions, but prevailing VFR expected. Upper
system clears the area by Wednesday night. Weak high pressure
building in from the west will bring patchy dense fog/LIFR MPV/SLK
06-12Z Thursday and possibly again 06-12z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Will maintain lake wind advisory through the day Monday with South
winds 15-25kts across much of Lake Champlain. It appears winds
will continue 15-25kts through about midnight, then gradient flow
diminishes and may be able to drop the advisory for the pre-dawn
hours on Tuesday. Boaters should also be advised that the
approaching surface cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms vicinity of Lake Champlain Tuesday afternoon, with a
few strong storms possible.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Hanson
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Banacos




000
FXUS61 KALY 270600
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
200 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will slide offshore
tonight. A series of cold fronts move eastward across the region
late Monday through Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will then build in from the Midwest by midweek,
with dry seasonable weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1253 AM EDT...Very warm temperatures across the region for
early morning, with 60s and 70s region-wide. Temps will not cool
too much more in some areas where a persistent southerly breeze
has developed. High and mid level clouds approaching with a
shearing 500 hpa short wave. These clouds will push south across
the region overnight. Farther west over Ontario showers have
developed associated with a pre-frontal trough. These at most will
send mid lvl convective debris our way. An isolated shower could
approach the western Adirondacks toward daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The band of clouds in the Great Lakes will track into the region
as a pre frontal trough develops over our region. Low level
convergence will be weak and there is not much moisture...plus
upper dynamics are still well west of our region. So...any showers
and thunderstorms that develop in western and central NY should
tend to weaken as they move east. Still...with a mix of clouds and
sun and some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms...
just a few degrees cooler tomorrow...still well into the 80s...if
more sun...southwest boundary layer flow could help us reach
toward 90 again...we will see.

Any isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should weaken
and decrease in coverage through the night...with periods of mid
and high clouds over the region through the night. Then the upper
energy and cold front will track into our region Tuesday...with
more cloud cover and better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Cooler temperatures will limit instability and boundary layer
flow is still relatively weak...but there is a decent boundary
layer temperature gradient that tracks through along with a low
level wind shift. So...showers likely and scattered thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and evening...with maybe a few strong
thunderstorms but chances for severe look quite limited. Highs
Tuesday in the mid 70s to around 80.

The front and the showers and storms move out Tuesday night...and
there could be some lingering isolated showers in western New
England into Wednesday morning. Improving conditions through the
day Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80...cooler in
higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This will be a period that starts dry and ends dry...with unsettled
weather in between.  Things begin with decreasing clouds as high
pressure settles in from the midwest. Compressional heating will
provide very warm temperatures and very low humidities for the
balance of the work week.

A cold front approaching from the northwest will pose an increasing
risk of a hit and miss shower for Friday...but despite an increase
in mid and high clouds...this is a pessimistic scenario as there is
really no mechanism for bringing in low-level moisture. Thus...
relative humidities will remain quite low and just some virga is
what will probably be common during the afternoon.  Still...
parameters for instability are expected to be quite high
initially and one shouldn`t be surprised to hear thunder coming
out of high cloud bases...with the possibility of no rain reaching
the ground.

As the front gets closer on Saturday...this will mark a more
reasonable risk for showers.  Still...moisture itself will be
limited with the cold front that will have moved through on
Tuesday remaining hung up off the northeast coast. The approaching
front will have weakened considerable by Saturday...and any
showers will likely no longer be accompanied by thunder as the
atmosphere stabilizes ahead of the cold front which is expected to
move through during the day.

High pressure returns for Sunday...with an increase in sunshine...
but temperatures not too much above normal.  Thursday and Friday
will be the warmest days...with highs from the mid 70s to upper 80s.
Highs both Saturday and Sunday will range from around 70 degrees to
the mid 80s.  Overnight lows will start out Wednesday night from the
mid 40s to upper 50s...and peak with lows from the mid 50s to mid
60s Friday night.  Except for Friday night...the lows will average
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will weaken and slide
offshore today. In the meantime, a cold front will approach from
the west. Heights will fall across the region however upper level
support will remain well to the west. Expecting some convection to
move into/develop across the local area today particularly during
the afternoon and evening.

Expecting mainly VFR conditions to prevail. However, mvfr-ifr fog
may impact KGFL and KPSF early this morning. Also, late in the TAF
period MVFR ceilings may occur especially at KPOU.

Southerly wind will continue at KALB overnight increasing after
sunrise to around 12 knots. Winds will become gusty with gusts
into the 20s. At KGFL, KPOU and KPSF light and variable to calm
winds for the overnight with a south-southwest flow developing
after sunrise. Southerly winds increasing to around 10 knots with
some gusts into the teens. The winds will decrease in the evening.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will slide offshore
tonight. A series of cold fronts move eastward across the region
late Monday through Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will then build in from the Midwest by midweek, with
dry seasonable weather returning.

RH values will increase to between 70 and 90 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Monday will be around 40 to 60 percent. Rain
will keep RH values up through Tuesday.

Winds will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph through tonight. Winds
on Monday will continue to be southerly and increase to around 10
to 15 mph...continuing through Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front. Two day rainfall totals could be
up to a half inch of rain in many areas.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder/NAS
NEAR TERM...Snyder/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 270600
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
200 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will slide offshore
tonight. A series of cold fronts move eastward across the region
late Monday through Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will then build in from the Midwest by midweek,
with dry seasonable weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1253 AM EDT...Very warm temperatures across the region for
early morning, with 60s and 70s region-wide. Temps will not cool
too much more in some areas where a persistent southerly breeze
has developed. High and mid level clouds approaching with a
shearing 500 hpa short wave. These clouds will push south across
the region overnight. Farther west over Ontario showers have
developed associated with a pre-frontal trough. These at most will
send mid lvl convective debris our way. An isolated shower could
approach the western Adirondacks toward daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The band of clouds in the Great Lakes will track into the region
as a pre frontal trough develops over our region. Low level
convergence will be weak and there is not much moisture...plus
upper dynamics are still well west of our region. So...any showers
and thunderstorms that develop in western and central NY should
tend to weaken as they move east. Still...with a mix of clouds and
sun and some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms...
just a few degrees cooler tomorrow...still well into the 80s...if
more sun...southwest boundary layer flow could help us reach
toward 90 again...we will see.

Any isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should weaken
and decrease in coverage through the night...with periods of mid
and high clouds over the region through the night. Then the upper
energy and cold front will track into our region Tuesday...with
more cloud cover and better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Cooler temperatures will limit instability and boundary layer
flow is still relatively weak...but there is a decent boundary
layer temperature gradient that tracks through along with a low
level wind shift. So...showers likely and scattered thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and evening...with maybe a few strong
thunderstorms but chances for severe look quite limited. Highs
Tuesday in the mid 70s to around 80.

The front and the showers and storms move out Tuesday night...and
there could be some lingering isolated showers in western New
England into Wednesday morning. Improving conditions through the
day Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80...cooler in
higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This will be a period that starts dry and ends dry...with unsettled
weather in between.  Things begin with decreasing clouds as high
pressure settles in from the midwest. Compressional heating will
provide very warm temperatures and very low humidities for the
balance of the work week.

A cold front approaching from the northwest will pose an increasing
risk of a hit and miss shower for Friday...but despite an increase
in mid and high clouds...this is a pessimistic scenario as there is
really no mechanism for bringing in low-level moisture. Thus...
relative humidities will remain quite low and just some virga is
what will probably be common during the afternoon.  Still...
parameters for instability are expected to be quite high
initially and one shouldn`t be surprised to hear thunder coming
out of high cloud bases...with the possibility of no rain reaching
the ground.

As the front gets closer on Saturday...this will mark a more
reasonable risk for showers.  Still...moisture itself will be
limited with the cold front that will have moved through on
Tuesday remaining hung up off the northeast coast. The approaching
front will have weakened considerable by Saturday...and any
showers will likely no longer be accompanied by thunder as the
atmosphere stabilizes ahead of the cold front which is expected to
move through during the day.

High pressure returns for Sunday...with an increase in sunshine...
but temperatures not too much above normal.  Thursday and Friday
will be the warmest days...with highs from the mid 70s to upper 80s.
Highs both Saturday and Sunday will range from around 70 degrees to
the mid 80s.  Overnight lows will start out Wednesday night from the
mid 40s to upper 50s...and peak with lows from the mid 50s to mid
60s Friday night.  Except for Friday night...the lows will average
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will weaken and slide
offshore today. In the meantime, a cold front will approach from
the west. Heights will fall across the region however upper level
support will remain well to the west. Expecting some convection to
move into/develop across the local area today particularly during
the afternoon and evening.

Expecting mainly VFR conditions to prevail. However, mvfr-ifr fog
may impact KGFL and KPSF early this morning. Also, late in the TAF
period MVFR ceilings may occur especially at KPOU.

Southerly wind will continue at KALB overnight increasing after
sunrise to around 12 knots. Winds will become gusty with gusts
into the 20s. At KGFL, KPOU and KPSF light and variable to calm
winds for the overnight with a south-southwest flow developing
after sunrise. Southerly winds increasing to around 10 knots with
some gusts into the teens. The winds will decrease in the evening.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will slide offshore
tonight. A series of cold fronts move eastward across the region
late Monday through Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will then build in from the Midwest by midweek, with
dry seasonable weather returning.

RH values will increase to between 70 and 90 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Monday will be around 40 to 60 percent. Rain
will keep RH values up through Tuesday.

Winds will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph through tonight. Winds
on Monday will continue to be southerly and increase to around 10
to 15 mph...continuing through Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front. Two day rainfall totals could be
up to a half inch of rain in many areas.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder/NAS
NEAR TERM...Snyder/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 270453
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1253 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will slide offshore
tonight. A series of cold fronts move eastward across the region
late Monday through Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will then build in from the Midwest by midweek,
with dry seasonable weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1253 AM EDT...Very warm temperatures across the region for
early morning, with 60s and 70s region-wide. Temps will not cool
too much more in some areas where a persistent southerly breeze
has developed. High and mid level clouds approaching with a
shearing 500 hpa short wave. These clouds will push south across
the region overnight. Farther west over Ontario showers have
developed associated with a pre-frontal trough. These at most will
send mid lvl convective debris our way. An isolated shower could
approach the western Adirondacks toward daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The band of clouds in the Great Lakes will track into the region
as a pre frontal trough develops over our region. Low level
convergence will be weak and there is not much moisture...plus
upper dynamics are still well west of our region. So...any showers
and thunderstorms that develop in western and central NY should
tend to weaken as they move east. Still...with a mix of clouds and
sun and some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms...
just a few degrees cooler tomorrow...still well into the 80s...if
more sun...southwest boundary layer flow could help us reach
toward 90 again...we will see.

Any isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should weaken
and decrease in coverage through the night...with periods of mid
and high clouds over the region through the night. Then the upper
energy and cold front will track into our region Tuesday...with
more cloud cover and better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Cooler temperatures will limit instability and boundary layer
flow is still relatively weak...but there is a decent boundary
layer temperature gradient that tracks through along with a low
level wind shift. So...showers likely and scattered thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and evening...with maybe a few strong
thunderstorms but chances for severe look quite limited. Highs
Tuesday in the mid 70s to around 80.

The front and the showers and storms move out Tuesday night...and
there could be some lingering isolated showers in western New
England into Wednesday morning. Improving conditions through the
day Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80...cooler in
higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This will be a period that starts dry and ends dry...with unsettled
weather in between.  Things begin with decreasing clouds as high
pressure settles in from the midwest. Compressional heating will
provide very warm temperatures and very low humidities for the
balance of the work week.

A cold front approaching from the northwest will pose an increasing
risk of a hit and miss shower for Friday...but despite an increase
in mid and high clouds...this is a pessimistic scenario as there is
really no mechanism for bringing in low-level moisture. Thus...
relative humidities will remain quite low and just some virga is
what will probably be common during the afternoon.  Still...
parameters for instability are expected to be quite high
initially and one shouldn`t be surprised to hear thunder coming
out of high cloud bases...with the possibility of no rain reaching
the ground.

As the front gets closer on Saturday...this will mark a more
reasonable risk for showers.  Still...moisture itself will be
limited with the cold front that will have moved through on
Tuesday remaining hung up off the northeast coast. The approaching
front will have weakened considerable by Saturday...and any
showers will likely no longer be accompanied by thunder as the
atmosphere stabilizes ahead of the cold front which is expected to
move through during the day.

High pressure returns for Sunday...with an increase in sunshine...
but temperatures not too much above normal.  Thursday and Friday
will be the warmest days...with highs from the mid 70s to upper 80s.
Highs both Saturday and Sunday will range from around 70 degrees to
the mid 80s.  Overnight lows will start out Wednesday night from the
mid 40s to upper 50s...and peak with lows from the mid 50s to mid
60s Friday night.  Except for Friday night...the lows will average
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will slide offshore
tonight. A cold front will approach the region Monday...bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

VFR conditions will prevail mainly through 18 UTC Monday. MVFR
conds in -shra and cigs will incr in coverage Mon aftn.

Overnight with the incrg wind gradient a South wind will incr to
5 to 10 kts...particularly in N-S valleys. The exception to VFR
conds will be some patchy radiational IFR/MVFR mist/fog in deep
valleys. Any mist/fog should quickly burn off in the mid-morning
with cirrus clouds around.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will slide offshore
tonight. A series of cold fronts move eastward across the region
late Monday through Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will then build in from the Midwest by midweek, with
dry seasonable weather returning.

RH values will increase to between 70 and 90 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Monday will be around 40 to 60 percent. Rain
will keep RH values up through Tuesday.

Winds will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph through tonight. Winds
on Monday will continue to be southerly and increase to around 10
to 15 mph...continuing through Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front. Two day rainfall totals could be
up to a half inch of rain in many areas.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder/NAS
NEAR TERM...Snyder/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...Snyder/Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270231
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1031 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to give way overnight to an approaching
frontal system as we head into the workweek. A chance for showers
and thunderstorms is in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday as the
front moves through. Tuesday`s storms could produce heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail. A chance for showers will linger into
Wednesday, then the week finishes up with high pressure and a dry
forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING/...
As of 1031 PM EDT Sunday...Starting to see some showers moving
toward the Saint Lawrence Valley and this will be spreading east
across our area after midnight...which going forecast has covered
well. Increasing clouds and persistent pressure gradient should
keep low temperatures from falling too much with lows in the 60s
to around 70 expected. Again...going forecast in real good shape
and no real changes needed at this time. See previous discussion
below.

Center of the surface high pressure has shifted east, with southerly
low level flow. 500mb ridge lagging behind a bit with the ridge
axis over the area through this evening. Heights begin to fall
later tonight in advance of the next low pressure system. Closed
500 mb low moving east across southern Ontario will open up into a
positively tilted trough through Monday as it continues on eastward.
At the surface an initial prefrontal trough will approach the St.
Lawrence Valley in the pre-dawn hours. POPs increase ahead of the
trough after midnight and spread east through the morning. Best
chances will be Champlain Valley westward. Better moisture/instability/shear
remains further west along actual cold front however, and only general
thunder expected with this first wave.

20-30 kts of south wind around 850 mb tonight and during the day
Monday, however an inversion should keep the stronger winds from
mixing down for much of the time period. Surface gradient winds in
the low teens with gusts in the upper teens to near 20 during the
day Monday.

Radiational cooling we`ve seen the past several nights not a
player tonight as pressure gradient keeps a warm southerly breeze
blowing and lows generally in the 60s. A little cooler on Monday
with lower heights, and 850 mb temps in the mid teens supporting
surface max temps in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...A very active weather day is anticipated on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. The trends
continue to support strong to possibly severe storms from the
northern Adirondacks into all of VT...with a slower frontal
arrival and greater surface heating resulting in higher
instability values. Primary threat would be one inch hail and
scattered damaging winds...along with localized very heavy
rainfall rates which could cause isolated flash flooding.

Strong mid/upper level trof will be across the eastern Great Lakes
by 18z Tuesday...with potent 5h short wave energy ejecting from the
Ohio Valley into the NE CONUS along a surface cold front draped
across our forecast area. GFS/NAM both show a favorable 250mb jet
couplet from right rear quad of 80 knot jet over southern Canada and
nose of left front of approaching jet over Ohio Valley arriving
around 18z Tuesday. This jet energy and approaching height falls
with trof will produce a strong upper level divergent signature
across our region...helping to promote deep layer lift.

Still some disagreement on amount of surface heating and associated
instability...but trends have been slower with frontal arrival and
greater with instability...especially dacks eastward. NAM surface
based CAPE values are between 1400 and 1800 j/kg with GFS 800 to
1200 j/kg...mainly across central/eastern VT. Have noted surface
temps in the lower 80s off the NAM and only lower 70s on the GFS
resulting in the instability difference. Based on progged 850mb
temps between 11C and 13C...and limited 850 to 500mb moisture across
our region in the morning...thinking temps will warm quickly into
the mid 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday...with surface dewpoints well
into the 60s. Noting lower 70s dwpts already pooling ahead of the
boundary across the Ohio Valley today and these will make a run at
us by Tuesday. These higher temps and dwpts will support CAPE values
around 1500 j/kg with pockets near 2000 j/kg by 18z Tuesday...which
combined with deep layer (0 to 6km) shear of 40 to 45 knots will
support organized convection. Based on progged instability and shear
parameters thinking mini supercells will be possible...evolving into
multicell clusters during the afternoon hours. The primary threat
will be damaging winds and one hail...especially from the dacks
eastward between noon and 6 pm on Tuesday.

The orientation of approaching boundary and favorable upper level
jet position...and pw values pooling between 1.50 and 1.75
inches...thinking localized heavy downpours will be
likely...especially as storms evolve into multicell clusters. The
intense rainfall rates associated with deep convection will need
to be watched closely for creating an increased threat for flash
flooding...especially if cells backbuild or train over mountains
terrain. Sounding vector analysis shows the potential for
backbuilding cells...as mid/upper level flow is paralleling the
low level boundary.

Given the increased severe weather threat and potential for
localized heavy downpours we will update HWO and place small
hail...gusty winds...and heavy downpours in zones with this package.
Our thinking is that if models are faster with front and show less
instability on Monday we can remove wording or if trends continue we
can add additional enhancement. Still plenty of time for shear and
instability parameters to change...but Tuesday should be monitored
closely.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...Front finally sweeps across our region overnight
on Tuesday into Weds with some lingering moisture and weak instability
noted near the international border. Thinking this instability along
with some short wave energy from 5h trof will produce scattered
showers on Weds...especially northern sections. Will continue to
mention chance pops...NAM is slower and would suggest greater instability
with a small threat for small hail/gusty winds. My current thinking
is convection on Tuesday and associated outflow boundaries will
help to forward the progression of boundary into NH by Weds. Cooler
and drier weather associated with high pres ridge for Thursday.

A warm southwest flow develops ahead of our next front and
associated energy on Friday. Latest GFS trends show axis of
instability developing across our cwa by 00z Sat with CAPES around
800 j/kg and deep layer shear between 25 and 35 knots. Given
uncertainty on timing of system and amount of instability and
shear...will mention chance for showers and storms at this time.
A few lingering showers are possible on Saturday...before drier
and cooler air arrives by Sunday. Overall temps will be near
normal on Thursday...jump to above normal ahead of boundary on
Friday...before falling back close to normal over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR throughout most the TAF forecast
period. Mostly clear skies give way to mid/high clouds moving in
west to east after midnight associated with next trough of low
pressure. Chance for showers along the trough after 09z St.
Lawrence Valley & KMSS, moving east through the morning across the
rest of the region for the remainder of the period. Thunderstorms
are also possible but confidence is low at this time and have
chosen to not include the TAFs just yet. MVFR ceilings are
possible during this time for KMSS. Light South winds across the
region overnight pick up again Monday morning through 18z at 10-20
knots as pressure gradient tightens ahead of the trough.

Outlook 18Z Monday through Friday...

18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to
MVFR/brief IFR as a trough Monday and cold front Tuesday brings
showers and thunderstorms. Best chances for stronger storms on
Tuesday.

00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday...Mainly VFR with morning IFR in fog
mainly KMPV/KSLK. Lingering scattered showers over the higher
terrain affecting KSLK KMPV with MVFR vis.

00z Thursday through Friday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds will be increasing into the 15 to 25 knot range after
midnight Sunday night and remain in that range right through
Monday night. This will create rather choppy conditions and given
winds of this magnitude...a lake wind advisory is now in effect
and will likely run into Monday night.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Hanson
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...MV/Hanson
MARINE...Evenson




000
FXUS61 KALY 270048
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
848 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will slide offshore
tonight. A series of cold fronts move eastward across the region
late Monday through Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will then build in from the Midwest by midweek,
with dry seasonable weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Diurnal clouds have dissipating but mid and clouds approaching
with a shearing 500 hpa short wv have moved into western NYS and
the St Lawrence Vly. These will push south across the state
overnight slowing the temp fall as incrg gradient and South
breeze also hold lows in the 60s. Further west over Ontario -shra
have formed assoc with cdfnt. These at most will send mid lvl
convective debris our way in flow. An isolated shower could
approach the western Mohawk Valley toward daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The band of clouds in the Great Lakes will track into the region
as a pre frontal trough develops over our region. Low level
convergence will be weak and there is not much moisture...plus
upper dynamics are still well west of our region. So...any showers
and thunderstorms that develop in western and central NY should
tend to weaken as they move east. Still...with a mix of clouds and
sun and some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms...
just a few degrees cooler tomorrow...still well into the 80s...if
more sun...southwest boundary layer flow could help us reach
toward 90 again...we will see.

Any isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should weaken
and decrease in coverage through the night...with periods of mid
and high clouds over the region through the night. Then the upper
energy and cold front will track into our region Tuesday...with
more cloud cover and better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Cooler temperatures will limit instability and boundary layer
flow is still relatively weak...but there is a decent boundary
layer temperature gradient that tracks through along with a low
level wind shift. So...showers likely and scattered thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and evening...with maybe a few strong
thunderstorms but chances for severe look quite limited. Highs
Tuesday in the mid 70s to around 80.

The front and the showers and storms move out Tuesday night...and
there could be some lingering isolated showers in western New
England into Wednesday morning. Improving conditions through the
day Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80...cooler in
higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This will be a period that starts dry and ends dry...with unsettled
weather in between.  Things begin with decreasing clouds as high
pressure settles in from the midwest. Compressional heating will
provide very warm temperatures and very low humidities for the
balance of the work week.

A cold front approaching from the northwest will pose an increasing
risk of a hit and miss shower for Friday...but despite an increase
in mid and high clouds...this is a pessimistic scenario as there is
really no mechanism for bringing in low-level moisture. Thus...
relative humidities will remain quite low and just some virga is
what will probably be common during the afternoon.  Still...
parameters for instability are expected to be quite high
initially and one shouldn`t be surprised to hear thunder coming
out of high cloud bases...with the possibility of no rain reaching
the ground.

As the front gets closer on Saturday...this will mark a more
reasonable risk for showers.  Still...moisture itself will be
limited with the cold front that will have moved through on
Tuesday remaining hung up off the northeast coast. The approaching
front will have weakened considerable by Saturday...and any
showers will likely no longer be accompanied by thunder as the
atmosphere stabilizes ahead of the cold front which is expected to
move through during the day.

High pressure returns for Sunday...with an increase in sunshine...
but temperatures not too much above normal.  Thursday and Friday
will be the warmest days...with highs from the mid 70s to upper 80s.
Highs both Saturday and Sunday will range from around 70 degrees to
the mid 80s.  Overnight lows will start out Wednesday night from the
mid 40s to upper 50s...and peak with lows from the mid 50s to mid
60s Friday night.  Except for Friday night...the lows will average
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will slide offshore
tonight. A cold front will approach the region Monday...bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

VFR conditions will prevail mainly through 18 UTC Monday. MVFR
conds in -shra and cigs will incr in coverage Mon aftn.

Overnight with the incrg wind gradient a South wind will incr to
5 to 10 kts...particularly in N-S valleys. The exception to VFR
conds will be some patchy radiational IFR/MVFR mist/fog in deep
valleys. Any mist/fog should quickly burn off in the mid-morning
with cirrus clouds around.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will slide offshore
tonight. A series of cold fronts move eastward across the region
late Monday through Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will then build in from the Midwest by midweek, with
dry seasonable weather returning.

RH values will increase to between 70 and 90 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Monday will be around 40 to 60 percent. Rain
will keep RH values up through Tuesday.

Winds will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph through tonight. Winds
on Monday will continue to be southerly and increase to around 10
to 15 mph...continuing through Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front. Two day rainfall totals could be
up to a half inch of rain in many areas.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder/NAS
NEAR TERM...Snyder/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...Snyder/Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 270048
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
848 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will slide offshore
tonight. A series of cold fronts move eastward across the region
late Monday through Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will then build in from the Midwest by midweek,
with dry seasonable weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Diurnal clouds have dissipating but mid and clouds approaching
with a shearing 500 hpa short wv have moved into western NYS and
the St Lawrence Vly. These will push south across the state
overnight slowing the temp fall as incrg gradient and South
breeze also hold lows in the 60s. Further west over Ontario -shra
have formed assoc with cdfnt. These at most will send mid lvl
convective debris our way in flow. An isolated shower could
approach the western Mohawk Valley toward daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The band of clouds in the Great Lakes will track into the region
as a pre frontal trough develops over our region. Low level
convergence will be weak and there is not much moisture...plus
upper dynamics are still well west of our region. So...any showers
and thunderstorms that develop in western and central NY should
tend to weaken as they move east. Still...with a mix of clouds and
sun and some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms...
just a few degrees cooler tomorrow...still well into the 80s...if
more sun...southwest boundary layer flow could help us reach
toward 90 again...we will see.

Any isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should weaken
and decrease in coverage through the night...with periods of mid
and high clouds over the region through the night. Then the upper
energy and cold front will track into our region Tuesday...with
more cloud cover and better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Cooler temperatures will limit instability and boundary layer
flow is still relatively weak...but there is a decent boundary
layer temperature gradient that tracks through along with a low
level wind shift. So...showers likely and scattered thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and evening...with maybe a few strong
thunderstorms but chances for severe look quite limited. Highs
Tuesday in the mid 70s to around 80.

The front and the showers and storms move out Tuesday night...and
there could be some lingering isolated showers in western New
England into Wednesday morning. Improving conditions through the
day Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80...cooler in
higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This will be a period that starts dry and ends dry...with unsettled
weather in between.  Things begin with decreasing clouds as high
pressure settles in from the midwest. Compressional heating will
provide very warm temperatures and very low humidities for the
balance of the work week.

A cold front approaching from the northwest will pose an increasing
risk of a hit and miss shower for Friday...but despite an increase
in mid and high clouds...this is a pessimistic scenario as there is
really no mechanism for bringing in low-level moisture. Thus...
relative humidities will remain quite low and just some virga is
what will probably be common during the afternoon.  Still...
parameters for instability are expected to be quite high
initially and one shouldn`t be surprised to hear thunder coming
out of high cloud bases...with the possibility of no rain reaching
the ground.

As the front gets closer on Saturday...this will mark a more
reasonable risk for showers.  Still...moisture itself will be
limited with the cold front that will have moved through on
Tuesday remaining hung up off the northeast coast. The approaching
front will have weakened considerable by Saturday...and any
showers will likely no longer be accompanied by thunder as the
atmosphere stabilizes ahead of the cold front which is expected to
move through during the day.

High pressure returns for Sunday...with an increase in sunshine...
but temperatures not too much above normal.  Thursday and Friday
will be the warmest days...with highs from the mid 70s to upper 80s.
Highs both Saturday and Sunday will range from around 70 degrees to
the mid 80s.  Overnight lows will start out Wednesday night from the
mid 40s to upper 50s...and peak with lows from the mid 50s to mid
60s Friday night.  Except for Friday night...the lows will average
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will slide offshore
tonight. A cold front will approach the region Monday...bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

VFR conditions will prevail mainly through 18 UTC Monday. MVFR
conds in -shra and cigs will incr in coverage Mon aftn.

Overnight with the incrg wind gradient a South wind will incr to
5 to 10 kts...particularly in N-S valleys. The exception to VFR
conds will be some patchy radiational IFR/MVFR mist/fog in deep
valleys. Any mist/fog should quickly burn off in the mid-morning
with cirrus clouds around.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will slide offshore
tonight. A series of cold fronts move eastward across the region
late Monday through Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will then build in from the Midwest by midweek, with
dry seasonable weather returning.

RH values will increase to between 70 and 90 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Monday will be around 40 to 60 percent. Rain
will keep RH values up through Tuesday.

Winds will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph through tonight. Winds
on Monday will continue to be southerly and increase to around 10
to 15 mph...continuing through Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front. Two day rainfall totals could be
up to a half inch of rain in many areas.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder/NAS
NEAR TERM...Snyder/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...Snyder/Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 262326
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
726 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to give way overnight to an approaching
frontal system as we head into the workweek. A chance for showers
and thunderstorms is in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday as the
front moves through. Tuesday`s storms could produce heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail. A chance for showers will linger into
Wednesday, then the week finishes up with high pressure and a dry
forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 637 PM EDT Sunday...Going forecast in real good shape and
no real changes needed at this time. See previous discussion
below.

Center of the surface high pressure has shifted east, with southerly
low level flow. 500mb ridge lagging behind a bit with the ridge
axis over the area through this evening. Heights begin to fall
later tonight in advance of the next low pressure system. Closed
500 mb low moving east across southern Ontario will open up into a
positively tilted trough through Monday as it continues on eastward.
At the surface an initial prefrontal trough will approach the St.
Lawrence Valley in the pre-dawn hours. POPs increase ahead of the
trough after midnight and spread east through the morning. Best
chances will be Champlain Valley westward. Better moisture/instability/shear
remains further west along actual cold front however, and only general
thunder expected with this first wave.

20-30 kts of south wind around 850 mb tonight and during the day
Monday, however an inversion should keep the stronger winds from
mixing down for much of the time period. Surface gradient winds in
the low teens with gusts in the upper teens to near 20 during the
day Monday.

Radiational cooling we`ve seen the past several nights not a
player tonight as pressure gradient keeps a warm southerly breeze
blowing and lows generally in the 60s. A little cooler on Monday
with lower heights, and 850 mb temps in the mid teens supporting
surface max temps in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...A very active weather day is anticipated on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. The trends
continue to support strong to possibly severe storms from the
northern Adirondacks into all of VT...with a slower frontal
arrival and greater surface heating resulting in higher
instability values. Primary threat would be one inch hail and
scattered damaging winds...along with localized very heavy
rainfall rates which could cause isolated flash flooding.

Strong mid/upper level trof will be across the eastern Great Lakes
by 18z Tuesday...with potent 5h short wave energy ejecting from the
Ohio Valley into the NE CONUS along a surface cold front draped
across our forecast area. GFS/NAM both show a favorable 250mb jet
couplet from right rear quad of 80 knot jet over southern Canada and
nose of left front of approaching jet over Ohio Valley arriving
around 18z Tuesday. This jet energy and approaching height falls
with trof will produce a strong upper level divergent signature
across our region...helping to promote deep layer lift.

Still some disagreement on amount of surface heating and associated
instability...but trends have been slower with frontal arrival and
greater with instability...especially dacks eastward. NAM surface
based CAPE values are between 1400 and 1800 j/kg with GFS 800 to
1200 j/kg...mainly across central/eastern VT. Have noted surface
temps in the lower 80s off the NAM and only lower 70s on the GFS
resulting in the instability difference. Based on progged 850mb
temps between 11C and 13C...and limited 850 to 500mb moisture across
our region in the morning...thinking temps will warm quickly into
the mid 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday...with surface dewpoints well
into the 60s. Noting lower 70s dwpts already pooling ahead of the
boundary across the Ohio Valley today and these will make a run at
us by Tuesday. These higher temps and dwpts will support CAPE values
around 1500 j/kg with pockets near 2000 j/kg by 18z Tuesday...which
combined with deep layer (0 to 6km) shear of 40 to 45 knots will
support organized convection. Based on progged instability and shear
parameters thinking mini supercells will be possible...evolving into
multicell clusters during the afternoon hours. The primary threat
will be damaging winds and one hail...especially from the dacks
eastward between noon and 6 pm on Tuesday.

The orientation of approaching boundary and favorable upper level
jet position...and pw values pooling between 1.50 and 1.75
inches...thinking localized heavy downpours will be
likely...especially as storms evolve into multicell clusters. The
intense rainfall rates associated with deep convection will need
to be watched closely for creating an increased threat for flash
flooding...especially if cells backbuild or train over mountains
terrain. Sounding vector analysis shows the potential for
backbuilding cells...as mid/upper level flow is paralleling the
low level boundary.

Given the increased severe weather threat and potential for
localized heavy downpours we will update HWO and place small
hail...gusty winds...and heavy downpours in zones with this package.
Our thinking is that if models are faster with front and show less
instability on Monday we can remove wording or if trends continue we
can add additional enhancement. Still plenty of time for shear and
instability parameters to change...but Tuesday should be monitored
closely.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...Front finally sweeps across our region overnight
on Tuesday into Weds with some lingering moisture and weak
instability noted near the international border. Thinking this
instability along with some short wave energy from 5h trof will
produce scattered showers on Weds...especially northern sections.
Will continue to mention chance pops...NAM is slower and would
suggest greater instability with a small threat for small
hail/gusty winds. My current thinking is convection on Tuesday and
associated outflow boundaries will help to forward the progression
of boundary into NH by Weds. Cooler and drier weather associated
with high pres ridge for Thursday.

A warm southwest flow develops ahead of our next front and
associated energy on Friday. Latest GFS trends show axis of
instability developing across our cwa by 00z Sat with CAPES around
800 j/kg and deep layer shear between 25 and 35 knots. Given
uncertainty on timing of system and amount of instability and
shear...will mention chance for showers and storms at this time.
A few lingering showers are possible on Saturday...before drier
and cooler air arrives by Sunday. Overall temps will be near
normal on Thursday...jump to above normal ahead of boundary on
Friday...before falling back close to normal over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR throughout most the TAF forecast
period. Mostly clear skies give way to mid/high clouds moving in
west to east after midnight associated with next trough of low
pressure. Chance for showers along the trough after 09z St.
Lawrence Valley & KMSS, moving east through the morning across the
rest of the region for the remainder of the period. Thunderstorms
are also possible but confidence is low at this time and have
chosen to not include the TAFs just yet. MVFR ceilings are
possible during this time for KMSS. Light South winds across the
region overnight pick up again Monday morning through 18z at 10-20
knots as pressure gradient tightens ahead of the trough.

Outlook 18Z Monday through Friday...

18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to
MVFR/brief IFR as a trough Monday and cold front Tuesday brings
showers and thunderstorms. Best chances for stronger storms on
Tuesday.

00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday...Mainly VFR with morning IFR in fog
mainly KMPV/KSLK. Lingering scattered showers over the higher
terrain affecting KSLK KMPV with MVFR vis.

00z Thursday through Friday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Hanson
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...MV/Hanson




000
FXUS61 KBTV 262326
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
726 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to give way overnight to an approaching
frontal system as we head into the workweek. A chance for showers
and thunderstorms is in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday as the
front moves through. Tuesday`s storms could produce heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail. A chance for showers will linger into
Wednesday, then the week finishes up with high pressure and a dry
forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 637 PM EDT Sunday...Going forecast in real good shape and
no real changes needed at this time. See previous discussion
below.

Center of the surface high pressure has shifted east, with southerly
low level flow. 500mb ridge lagging behind a bit with the ridge
axis over the area through this evening. Heights begin to fall
later tonight in advance of the next low pressure system. Closed
500 mb low moving east across southern Ontario will open up into a
positively tilted trough through Monday as it continues on eastward.
At the surface an initial prefrontal trough will approach the St.
Lawrence Valley in the pre-dawn hours. POPs increase ahead of the
trough after midnight and spread east through the morning. Best
chances will be Champlain Valley westward. Better moisture/instability/shear
remains further west along actual cold front however, and only general
thunder expected with this first wave.

20-30 kts of south wind around 850 mb tonight and during the day
Monday, however an inversion should keep the stronger winds from
mixing down for much of the time period. Surface gradient winds in
the low teens with gusts in the upper teens to near 20 during the
day Monday.

Radiational cooling we`ve seen the past several nights not a
player tonight as pressure gradient keeps a warm southerly breeze
blowing and lows generally in the 60s. A little cooler on Monday
with lower heights, and 850 mb temps in the mid teens supporting
surface max temps in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...A very active weather day is anticipated on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. The trends
continue to support strong to possibly severe storms from the
northern Adirondacks into all of VT...with a slower frontal
arrival and greater surface heating resulting in higher
instability values. Primary threat would be one inch hail and
scattered damaging winds...along with localized very heavy
rainfall rates which could cause isolated flash flooding.

Strong mid/upper level trof will be across the eastern Great Lakes
by 18z Tuesday...with potent 5h short wave energy ejecting from the
Ohio Valley into the NE CONUS along a surface cold front draped
across our forecast area. GFS/NAM both show a favorable 250mb jet
couplet from right rear quad of 80 knot jet over southern Canada and
nose of left front of approaching jet over Ohio Valley arriving
around 18z Tuesday. This jet energy and approaching height falls
with trof will produce a strong upper level divergent signature
across our region...helping to promote deep layer lift.

Still some disagreement on amount of surface heating and associated
instability...but trends have been slower with frontal arrival and
greater with instability...especially dacks eastward. NAM surface
based CAPE values are between 1400 and 1800 j/kg with GFS 800 to
1200 j/kg...mainly across central/eastern VT. Have noted surface
temps in the lower 80s off the NAM and only lower 70s on the GFS
resulting in the instability difference. Based on progged 850mb
temps between 11C and 13C...and limited 850 to 500mb moisture across
our region in the morning...thinking temps will warm quickly into
the mid 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday...with surface dewpoints well
into the 60s. Noting lower 70s dwpts already pooling ahead of the
boundary across the Ohio Valley today and these will make a run at
us by Tuesday. These higher temps and dwpts will support CAPE values
around 1500 j/kg with pockets near 2000 j/kg by 18z Tuesday...which
combined with deep layer (0 to 6km) shear of 40 to 45 knots will
support organized convection. Based on progged instability and shear
parameters thinking mini supercells will be possible...evolving into
multicell clusters during the afternoon hours. The primary threat
will be damaging winds and one hail...especially from the dacks
eastward between noon and 6 pm on Tuesday.

The orientation of approaching boundary and favorable upper level
jet position...and pw values pooling between 1.50 and 1.75
inches...thinking localized heavy downpours will be
likely...especially as storms evolve into multicell clusters. The
intense rainfall rates associated with deep convection will need
to be watched closely for creating an increased threat for flash
flooding...especially if cells backbuild or train over mountains
terrain. Sounding vector analysis shows the potential for
backbuilding cells...as mid/upper level flow is paralleling the
low level boundary.

Given the increased severe weather threat and potential for
localized heavy downpours we will update HWO and place small
hail...gusty winds...and heavy downpours in zones with this package.
Our thinking is that if models are faster with front and show less
instability on Monday we can remove wording or if trends continue we
can add additional enhancement. Still plenty of time for shear and
instability parameters to change...but Tuesday should be monitored
closely.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...Front finally sweeps across our region overnight
on Tuesday into Weds with some lingering moisture and weak
instability noted near the international border. Thinking this
instability along with some short wave energy from 5h trof will
produce scattered showers on Weds...especially northern sections.
Will continue to mention chance pops...NAM is slower and would
suggest greater instability with a small threat for small
hail/gusty winds. My current thinking is convection on Tuesday and
associated outflow boundaries will help to forward the progression
of boundary into NH by Weds. Cooler and drier weather associated
with high pres ridge for Thursday.

A warm southwest flow develops ahead of our next front and
associated energy on Friday. Latest GFS trends show axis of
instability developing across our cwa by 00z Sat with CAPES around
800 j/kg and deep layer shear between 25 and 35 knots. Given
uncertainty on timing of system and amount of instability and
shear...will mention chance for showers and storms at this time.
A few lingering showers are possible on Saturday...before drier
and cooler air arrives by Sunday. Overall temps will be near
normal on Thursday...jump to above normal ahead of boundary on
Friday...before falling back close to normal over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR throughout most the TAF forecast
period. Mostly clear skies give way to mid/high clouds moving in
west to east after midnight associated with next trough of low
pressure. Chance for showers along the trough after 09z St.
Lawrence Valley & KMSS, moving east through the morning across the
rest of the region for the remainder of the period. Thunderstorms
are also possible but confidence is low at this time and have
chosen to not include the TAFs just yet. MVFR ceilings are
possible during this time for KMSS. Light South winds across the
region overnight pick up again Monday morning through 18z at 10-20
knots as pressure gradient tightens ahead of the trough.

Outlook 18Z Monday through Friday...

18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to
MVFR/brief IFR as a trough Monday and cold front Tuesday brings
showers and thunderstorms. Best chances for stronger storms on
Tuesday.

00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday...Mainly VFR with morning IFR in fog
mainly KMPV/KSLK. Lingering scattered showers over the higher
terrain affecting KSLK KMPV with MVFR vis.

00z Thursday through Friday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Hanson
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...MV/Hanson




000
FXUS61 KBTV 262238
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
638 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to give way overnight to an approaching
frontal system as we head into the workweek. A chance for showers
and thunderstorms is in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday as the
front moves through. Tuesday`s storms could produce heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail. A chance for showers will linger into
Wednesday, then the week finishes up with high pressure and a dry
forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 637 PM EDT Sunday...Going forecast in real good shape and
no real changes needed at this time. See previous discussion
below.

Center of the surface high pressure has shifted east, with southerly
low level flow. 500mb ridge lagging behind a bit with the ridge
axis over the area through this evening. Heights begin to fall
later tonight in advance of the next low pressure system. Closed
500 mb low moving east across southern Ontario will open up into a
positively tilted trough through Monday as it continues on eastward.
At the surface an initial prefrontal trough will approach the St.
Lawrence Valley in the pre-dawn hours. POPs increase ahead of the
trough after midnight and spread east through the morning. Best
chances will be Champlain Valley westward. Better moisture/instability/shear
remains further west along actual cold front however, and only general
thunder expected with this first wave.

20-30 kts of south wind around 850 mb tonight and during the day
Monday, however an inversion should keep the stronger winds from
mixing down for much of the time period. Surface gradient winds in
the low teens with gusts in the upper teens to near 20 during the
day Monday.

Radiational cooling we`ve seen the past several nights not a
player tonight as pressure gradient keeps a warm southerly breeze
blowing and lows generally in the 60s. A little cooler on Monday
with lower heights, and 850 mb temps in the mid teens supporting
surface max temps in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...A very active weather day is anticipated on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. The trends
continue to support strong to possibly severe storms from the
northern Adirondacks into all of VT...with a slower frontal
arrival and greater surface heating resulting in higher
instability values. Primary threat would be one inch hail and
scattered damaging winds...along with localized very heavy
rainfall rates which could cause isolated flash flooding.

Strong mid/upper level trof will be across the eastern Great Lakes
by 18z Tuesday...with potent 5h short wave energy ejecting from the
Ohio Valley into the NE CONUS along a surface cold front draped
across our forecast area. GFS/NAM both show a favorable 250mb jet
couplet from right rear quad of 80 knot jet over southern Canada and
nose of left front of approaching jet over Ohio Valley arriving
around 18z Tuesday. This jet energy and approaching height falls
with trof will produce a strong upper level divergent signature
across our region...helping to promote deep layer lift.

Still some disagreement on amount of surface heating and associated
instability...but trends have been slower with frontal arrival and
greater with instability...especially dacks eastward. NAM surface
based CAPE values are between 1400 and 1800 j/kg with GFS 800 to
1200 j/kg...mainly across central/eastern VT. Have noted surface
temps in the lower 80s off the NAM and only lower 70s on the GFS
resulting in the instability difference. Based on progged 850mb
temps between 11C and 13C...and limited 850 to 500mb moisture across
our region in the morning...thinking temps will warm quickly into
the mid 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday...with surface dewpoints well
into the 60s. Noting lower 70s dwpts already pooling ahead of the
boundary across the Ohio Valley today and these will make a run at
us by Tuesday. These higher temps and dwpts will support CAPE values
around 1500 j/kg with pockets near 2000 j/kg by 18z Tuesday...which
combined with deep layer (0 to 6km) shear of 40 to 45 knots will
support organized convection. Based on progged instability and shear
parameters thinking mini supercells will be possible...evolving into
multicell clusters during the afternoon hours. The primary threat
will be damaging winds and one hail...especially from the dacks
eastward between noon and 6 pm on Tuesday.

The orientation of approaching boundary and favorable upper level
jet position...and pw values pooling between 1.50 and 1.75
inches...thinking localized heavy downpours will be
likely...especially as storms evolve into multicell clusters. The
intense rainfall rates associated with deep convection will need
to be watched closely for creating an increased threat for flash
flooding...especially if cells backbuild or train over mountains
terrain. Sounding vector analysis shows the potential for
backbuilding cells...as mid/upper level flow is paralleling the
low level boundary.

Given the increased severe weather threat and potential for
localized heavy downpours we will update HWO and place small
hail...gusty winds...and heavy downpours in zones with this package.
Our thinking is that if models are faster with front and show less
instability on Monday we can remove wording or if trends continue we
can add additional enhancement. Still plenty of time for shear and
instability parameters to change...but Tuesday should be monitored
closely.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...Front finally sweeps across our region overnight
on Tuesday into Weds with some lingering moisture and weak
instability noted near the international border. Thinking this
instability along with some short wave energy from 5h trof will
produce scattered showers on Weds...especially northern sections.
Will continue to mention chance pops...NAM is slower and would
suggest greater instability with a small threat for small
hail/gusty winds. My current thinking is convection on Tuesday and
associated outflow boundaries will help to forward the progression
of boundary into NH by Weds. Cooler and drier weather associated
with high pres ridge for Thursday.

A warm southwest flow develops ahead of our next front and
associated energy on Friday. Latest GFS trends show axis of
instability developing across our cwa by 00z Sat with CAPES around
800 j/kg and deep layer shear between 25 and 35 knots. Given
uncertainty on timing of system and amount of instability and
shear...will mention chance for showers and storms at this time.
A few lingering showers are possible on Saturday...before drier
and cooler air arrives by Sunday. Overall temps will be near
normal on Thursday...jump to above normal ahead of boundary on
Friday...before falling back close to normal over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12Z Monday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. VCSH
enters the forecast after 12z. High pressure and clear to
scattered cu at 060 the rest of this afternoon, then clearing
around sunset. Mid/high clouds move in west to east after midnight
associated with next trough of low pressure. Chance for showers
along the trough around 12z St. Lawrence Valley & KMSS, moving
east through the morning. Given lateness in forecast cycle and
some uncertainty only warrants vcsh in the TAF. South wind across
the region with some gusts to 70-20 kts this afternoon with
mixing, then winds diminish overnight. Gust potential picks up
again Monday morning through 18z as pressure gradient tightens
ahead of the trough.

Outlook 18Z Monday through Friday...

18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to
MVFR/brief IFR as a trough Monday and cold front Tuesday brings
showers and thunderstorms. Best chances for stronger storms on
Tuesday.

00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday...Mainly VFR with morning IFR in fog
mainly KMPV/KSLK. Lingering scattered showers over the higher
terrain affecting KSLK KMPV with MVFR vis.

00z Thursday through Friday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Hanson
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Hanson




000
FXUS61 KBTV 262238
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
638 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to give way overnight to an approaching
frontal system as we head into the workweek. A chance for showers
and thunderstorms is in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday as the
front moves through. Tuesday`s storms could produce heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail. A chance for showers will linger into
Wednesday, then the week finishes up with high pressure and a dry
forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 637 PM EDT Sunday...Going forecast in real good shape and
no real changes needed at this time. See previous discussion
below.

Center of the surface high pressure has shifted east, with southerly
low level flow. 500mb ridge lagging behind a bit with the ridge
axis over the area through this evening. Heights begin to fall
later tonight in advance of the next low pressure system. Closed
500 mb low moving east across southern Ontario will open up into a
positively tilted trough through Monday as it continues on eastward.
At the surface an initial prefrontal trough will approach the St.
Lawrence Valley in the pre-dawn hours. POPs increase ahead of the
trough after midnight and spread east through the morning. Best
chances will be Champlain Valley westward. Better moisture/instability/shear
remains further west along actual cold front however, and only general
thunder expected with this first wave.

20-30 kts of south wind around 850 mb tonight and during the day
Monday, however an inversion should keep the stronger winds from
mixing down for much of the time period. Surface gradient winds in
the low teens with gusts in the upper teens to near 20 during the
day Monday.

Radiational cooling we`ve seen the past several nights not a
player tonight as pressure gradient keeps a warm southerly breeze
blowing and lows generally in the 60s. A little cooler on Monday
with lower heights, and 850 mb temps in the mid teens supporting
surface max temps in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...A very active weather day is anticipated on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. The trends
continue to support strong to possibly severe storms from the
northern Adirondacks into all of VT...with a slower frontal
arrival and greater surface heating resulting in higher
instability values. Primary threat would be one inch hail and
scattered damaging winds...along with localized very heavy
rainfall rates which could cause isolated flash flooding.

Strong mid/upper level trof will be across the eastern Great Lakes
by 18z Tuesday...with potent 5h short wave energy ejecting from the
Ohio Valley into the NE CONUS along a surface cold front draped
across our forecast area. GFS/NAM both show a favorable 250mb jet
couplet from right rear quad of 80 knot jet over southern Canada and
nose of left front of approaching jet over Ohio Valley arriving
around 18z Tuesday. This jet energy and approaching height falls
with trof will produce a strong upper level divergent signature
across our region...helping to promote deep layer lift.

Still some disagreement on amount of surface heating and associated
instability...but trends have been slower with frontal arrival and
greater with instability...especially dacks eastward. NAM surface
based CAPE values are between 1400 and 1800 j/kg with GFS 800 to
1200 j/kg...mainly across central/eastern VT. Have noted surface
temps in the lower 80s off the NAM and only lower 70s on the GFS
resulting in the instability difference. Based on progged 850mb
temps between 11C and 13C...and limited 850 to 500mb moisture across
our region in the morning...thinking temps will warm quickly into
the mid 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday...with surface dewpoints well
into the 60s. Noting lower 70s dwpts already pooling ahead of the
boundary across the Ohio Valley today and these will make a run at
us by Tuesday. These higher temps and dwpts will support CAPE values
around 1500 j/kg with pockets near 2000 j/kg by 18z Tuesday...which
combined with deep layer (0 to 6km) shear of 40 to 45 knots will
support organized convection. Based on progged instability and shear
parameters thinking mini supercells will be possible...evolving into
multicell clusters during the afternoon hours. The primary threat
will be damaging winds and one hail...especially from the dacks
eastward between noon and 6 pm on Tuesday.

The orientation of approaching boundary and favorable upper level
jet position...and pw values pooling between 1.50 and 1.75
inches...thinking localized heavy downpours will be
likely...especially as storms evolve into multicell clusters. The
intense rainfall rates associated with deep convection will need
to be watched closely for creating an increased threat for flash
flooding...especially if cells backbuild or train over mountains
terrain. Sounding vector analysis shows the potential for
backbuilding cells...as mid/upper level flow is paralleling the
low level boundary.

Given the increased severe weather threat and potential for
localized heavy downpours we will update HWO and place small
hail...gusty winds...and heavy downpours in zones with this package.
Our thinking is that if models are faster with front and show less
instability on Monday we can remove wording or if trends continue we
can add additional enhancement. Still plenty of time for shear and
instability parameters to change...but Tuesday should be monitored
closely.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...Front finally sweeps across our region overnight
on Tuesday into Weds with some lingering moisture and weak
instability noted near the international border. Thinking this
instability along with some short wave energy from 5h trof will
produce scattered showers on Weds...especially northern sections.
Will continue to mention chance pops...NAM is slower and would
suggest greater instability with a small threat for small
hail/gusty winds. My current thinking is convection on Tuesday and
associated outflow boundaries will help to forward the progression
of boundary into NH by Weds. Cooler and drier weather associated
with high pres ridge for Thursday.

A warm southwest flow develops ahead of our next front and
associated energy on Friday. Latest GFS trends show axis of
instability developing across our cwa by 00z Sat with CAPES around
800 j/kg and deep layer shear between 25 and 35 knots. Given
uncertainty on timing of system and amount of instability and
shear...will mention chance for showers and storms at this time.
A few lingering showers are possible on Saturday...before drier
and cooler air arrives by Sunday. Overall temps will be near
normal on Thursday...jump to above normal ahead of boundary on
Friday...before falling back close to normal over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12Z Monday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. VCSH
enters the forecast after 12z. High pressure and clear to
scattered cu at 060 the rest of this afternoon, then clearing
around sunset. Mid/high clouds move in west to east after midnight
associated with next trough of low pressure. Chance for showers
along the trough around 12z St. Lawrence Valley & KMSS, moving
east through the morning. Given lateness in forecast cycle and
some uncertainty only warrants vcsh in the TAF. South wind across
the region with some gusts to 70-20 kts this afternoon with
mixing, then winds diminish overnight. Gust potential picks up
again Monday morning through 18z as pressure gradient tightens
ahead of the trough.

Outlook 18Z Monday through Friday...

18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to
MVFR/brief IFR as a trough Monday and cold front Tuesday brings
showers and thunderstorms. Best chances for stronger storms on
Tuesday.

00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday...Mainly VFR with morning IFR in fog
mainly KMPV/KSLK. Lingering scattered showers over the higher
terrain affecting KSLK KMPV with MVFR vis.

00z Thursday through Friday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Hanson
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Hanson




000
FXUS61 KALY 262052
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
452 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Diurnal heating clouds are dissipating but a band of mid and high
clouds in the Great Lakes is approaching. It is a fairly narrow
band of clouds but more clouds may form...depending on what
convection can form in the Great Lakes and OH Valley. So...some
increase to cloud cover toward daybreak...and south winds should
be steady and light all night in many areas...especially in the
Hudson Valley. Lows tonight in the lower to mid 60s..around 60 in
higher terrain. An isolated shower could approach the western
Mohawk Valley toward daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The band of clouds in the Great Lakes will track into the region
as a pre frontal trough develops over our region. Low level
convergence will be weak and there is not much moisture...plus
upper dynamics are still well west of our region. So...any showers
and thunderstorms that develop in western and central NY should
tend to weaken as they move east. Still...with a mix of clouds and
sun and some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms...
just a few degrees cooler tomorrow...still well into the 80s...if
more sun...southwest boundary layer flow could help us reach
toward 90 again...we will see.

Any isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should weaken
and decrease in coverage through the night...with periods of mid
and high clouds over the region through the night. Then the upper
energy and cold front will track into our region Tuesday...with
more cloud cover and better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Cooler temperatures will limit instability and boundary layer
flow is still relatively weak...but there is a decent boundary
layer temperature gradient that tracks through along with a low
level wind shift. So...showers likely and scattered thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and evening...with maybe a few strong
thunderstorms but chances for severe look quite limited. Highs
Tuesday in the mid 70s to around 80.

The front and the showers and storms move out Tuesday night...and
there could be some lingering isolated showers in western New
England into Wednesday morning. Improving conditions through the
day Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80...cooler in
higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This will be a period that starts dry and ends dry...with unsettled
weather in between.  Things begin with decreasing clouds as high
pressure settles in from the midwest. Compressional heating will
provide very warm temperatures and very low humidities for the
balance of the work week.

A cold front approaching from the northwest will pose an increasing
risk of a hit and miss shower for Friday...but despite an increase
in mid and high clouds...this is a pessimistic scenario as there is
really no mechanism for bringing in low-level moisture. Thus...
relative humidities will remain quite low and just some virga is
what will probably be common during the afternoon.  Still...
parameters for instability are expected to be quite high
initially and one shouldn`t be surprised to hear thunder coming
out of high cloud bases...with the possibility of no rain reaching
the ground.

As the front gets closer on Saturday...this will mark a more
reasonable risk for showers.  Still...moisture itself will be
limited with the cold front that will have moved through on
Tuesday remaining hung up off the northeast coast. The approaching
front will have weakened considerable by Saturday...and any
showers will likely no longer be accompanied by thunder as the
atmosphere stabilizes ahead of the cold front which is expected to
move through during the day.

High pressure returns for Sunday...with an increase in sunshine...
but temperatures not too much above normal.  Thursday and Friday
will be the warmest days...with highs from the mid 70s to upper 80s.
Highs both Saturday and Sunday will range from around 70 degrees to
the mid 80s.  Overnight lows will start out Wednesday night from the
mid 40s to upper 50s...and peak with lows from the mid 50s to mid
60s Friday night.  Except for Friday night...the lows will average
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will continue to slowly move east of New England
this afternoon into tomorrow. A cold front will be approaching
from the eastern Great Lakes Region and southeast Canada tomorrow
afternoon.

VFR conditions will prevail mainly the next 24 hrs ending 18Z/MON
at KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. The exception will be some patchy
radiational IFR/MVFR mist/fog at KGFL/KPSF. Mostly clear
skies...light to calm winds...and dewpt temps creeping up may
allow for this period of mist/fog from 06Z-12Z.

Any mist/fog should quickly burn off in the mid-morning with
cirrus clouds around.

The winds will be from south/southeast at 4-8 kts this
afternoon...and become light to calm at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF before
04Z/MON. The winds will increase to 8-10 kts at KALB due to the
nocturnal funneling effect up the Hudson River Valley. The winds
will be generally from the south at 5-10 kts late tomorrow
morning.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

RH values will increase to between 70 and 90 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Monday will be around 40 to 60 percent. Rain
will keep RH values up through Tuesday.

Winds will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph through tonight. Winds
on Monday will continue to be southerly and increase to around 10
to 15 mph...continuing through Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front. Two day rainfall totals could be
up to a half inch of rain in many areas.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 262021
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
421 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Diurnal heating clouds are dissipating but a band of mid and high
clouds in the Great Lakes is approaching. It is a fairly narrow
band of clouds but more clouds may form...depending on what
convection can form in the Great Lakes and OH Valley. So...some
increase to cloud cover toward daybreak...and south winds should
be steady and light all night in many areas...especially in the
Hudson Valley. Lows tonight in the lower to mid 60s..around 60 in
higher terrain. An isolated shower could approach the western
Mohawk Valley toward daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The band of clouds in the Great Lakes will track into the region
as a pre frontal trough develops over our region. Low level
convergence will be weak and there is not much moisture...plus
upper dynamics are still well west of our region. So...any showers
and thunderstorms that develop in western and central NY should
tend to weaken as they move east. Still...with a mix of clouds and
sun and some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms...
just a few degrees cooler tomorrow...still well into the 80s...if
more sun...southwest boundary layer flow could help us reach
toward 90 again...we will see.

Any isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should weaken
and decrease in coverage through the night...with periods of mid
and high clouds over the region through the night. Then the upper
energy and cold front will track into our region Tuesday...with
more cloud cover and better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Cooler temperatures will limit instability and boundary layer
flow is still relatively weak...but there is a decent boundary
layer temperature gradient that tracks through along with a low
level wind shift. So...showers likely and scattered thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and evening...with maybe a few strong
thunderstorms but chances for severe look quite limited. Highs
Tuesday in the mid 70s to around 80.

The front and the showers and storms move out Tuesday night...and
there could be some lingering isolated showers in western New
England into Wednesday morning. Improving conditions through the
day Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80...cooler in
higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This will be a period that starts dry and ends dry...with unsettled
weather in between.  Things begin with decreasing clouds as high
pressure settles in from the midwest. Compressional heating will
provide very warm temperatures and very low humidities for the
balance of the work week.

A cold front approaching from the northwest will pose an increasing
risk of a hit and miss shower for Friday...but despite an increase
in mid and high clouds...this is a pessimistic scenario as there is
really no mechanism for bringing in low-level moisture. Thus...
relative humidities will remain quite low and just some virga is
what will probably be common during the afternoon.  Still...
parameters for instability are expected to be quite high
initially and one shouldn`t be surprised to hear thunder coming
out of high cloud bases...with the possibility of no rain reaching
the ground.

As the front gets closer on Saturday...this will mark a more
reasonable risk for showers.  Still...moisture itself will be
limited with the cold front that will have moved through on
Tuesday remaining hung up off the northeast coast. The approaching
front will have weakened considerable by Saturday...and any
showers will likely no longer be accompanied by thunder as the
atmosphere stabilizes ahead of the cold front which is expected to
move through during the day.

High pressure returns for Sunday...with an increase in sunshine...
but temperatures not too much above normal.  Thursday and Friday
will be the warmest days...with highs from the mid 70s to upper 80s.
Highs both Saturday and Sunday will range from around 70 degrees to
the mid 80s.  Overnight lows will start out Wednesday night from the
mid 40s to upper 50s...and peak with lows from the mid 50s to mid
60s Friday night.  Except for Friday night...the lows will average
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will continue to slowly move east of New England
this afternoon into tomorrow. A cold front will be approaching
from the eastern Great Lakes Region and southeast Canada tomorrow
afternoon.

VFR conditions will prevail mainly the next 24 hrs ending 18Z/MON
at KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. The exception will be some patchy
radiational IFR/MVFR mist/fog at KGFL/KPSF. Mostly clear
skies...light to calm winds...and dewpt temps creeping up may
allow for this period of mist/fog from 06Z-12Z.

Any mist/fog should quickly burn off in the mid-morning with
cirrus clouds around.

The winds will be from south/southeast at 4-8 kts this
afternoon...and become light to calm at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF before
04Z/MON. The winds will increase to 8-10 kts at KALB due to the
nocturnal funneling effect up the Hudson River Valley. The winds
will be generally from the south at 5-10 kts late tomorrow
morning.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

RH values will increase to between 70 and 90 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Monday will be around 40 to 60 percent. Rain
will keep RH values up through Tuesday.

Winds will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph through tonight. Winds
on Monday will continue to be southerly and increase to around 10
to 15 mph...continuing through Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front. Two day rainfall totals could be
up to a half inch of rain in many areas.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261944
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
344 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to give way overnight to an approaching
frontal system as we head into the workweek. A chance for showers
and thunderstorms is in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday as the
front moves through. Tuesday`s storms could produce heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail. A chance for showers will linger into
Wednesday, then the week finishes up with high pressure and a dry
forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 343 PM EDT Sunday...Center of the surface high pressure has
shifted east, with southerly low level flow. 500mb ridge lagging
behind a bit with the ridge axis over the area through this
evening. Heights begin to fall later tonight in advance of the
next low pressure system. Closed 500 mb low moving east across
southern Ontario will open up into a positively tilted trough
through Monday as it continues on eastward. At the surface an
initial prefrontal trough will approach the St. Lawrence Valley in
the pre-dawn hours. POPs increase ahead of the trough after
midnight and spread east through the morning. Best chances will be
Champlain Valley westward. Better moisture/instability/shear
remains further west along actual cold front however, and only
general thunder expected with this first wave.

20-30 kts of south wind around 850 mb tonight and during the day
Monday, however an inversion should keep the stronger winds from
mixing down for much of the time period. Surface gradient winds in
the low teens with gusts in the upper teens to near 20 during the
day Monday.

Radiational cooling we`ve seen the past several nights not a
player tonight as pressure gradient keeps a warm southerly breeze
blowing and lows generally in the 60s. A little cooler on Monday
with lower heights, and 850 mb temps in the mid teens supporting
surface max temps in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...A very active weather day is anticipated on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. The trends
continue to support strong to possibly severe storms from the
northern Adirondacks into all of VT...with a slower frontal
arrival and greater surface heating resulting in higher
instability values. Primary threat would be one inch hail and
scattered damaging winds...along with localized very heavy
rainfall rates which could cause isolated flash flooding.

Strong mid/upper level trof will be across the eastern Great Lakes
by 18z Tuesday...with potent 5h short wave energy ejecting from the
Ohio Valley into the NE CONUS along a surface cold front draped
across our forecast area. GFS/NAM both show a favorable 250mb jet
couplet from right rear quad of 80 knot jet over southern Canada and
nose of left front of approaching jet over Ohio Valley arriving
around 18z Tuesday. This jet energy and approaching height falls
with trof will produce a strong upper level divergent signature
across our region...helping to promote deep layer lift.

Still some disagreement on amount of surface heating and associated
instability...but trends have been slower with frontal arrival and
greater with instability...especially dacks eastward. NAM surface
based CAPE values are between 1400 and 1800 j/kg with GFS 800 to
1200 j/kg...mainly across central/eastern VT. Have noted surface
temps in the lower 80s off the NAM and only lower 70s on the GFS
resulting in the instability difference. Based on progged 850mb
temps between 11C and 13C...and limited 850 to 500mb moisture across
our region in the morning...thinking temps will warm quickly into
the mid 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday...with surface dewpoints well
into the 60s. Noting lower 70s dwpts already pooling ahead of the
boundary across the Ohio Valley today and these will make a run at
us by Tuesday. These higher temps and dwpts will support CAPE values
around 1500 j/kg with pockets near 2000 j/kg by 18z Tuesday...which
combined with deep layer (0 to 6km) shear of 40 to 45 knots will
support organized convection. Based on progged instability and shear
parameters thinking mini supercells will be possible...evolving into
multicell clusters during the afternoon hours. The primary threat
will be damaging winds and one hail...especially from the dacks
eastward between noon and 6 pm on Tuesday.

The orientation of approaching boundary and favorable upper level
jet position...and pw values pooling between 1.50 and 1.75
inches...thinking localized heavy downpours will be
likely...especially as storms evolve into multicell clusters. The
intense rainfall rates associated with deep convection will need
to be watched closely for creating an increased threat for flash
flooding...especially if cells backbuild or train over mountains
terrain. Sounding vector analysis shows the potential for
backbuilding cells...as mid/upper level flow is paralleling the
low level boundary.

Given the increased severe weather threat and potential for
localized heavy downpours we will update HWO and place small
hail...gusty winds...and heavy downpours in zones with this package.
Our thinking is that if models are faster with front and show less
instability on Monday we can remove wording or if trends continue we
can add additional enhancement. Still plenty of time for shear and
instability parameters to change...but Tuesday should be monitored
closely.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...Front finally sweeps across our region overnight
on Tuesday into Weds with some lingering moisture and weak
instability noted near the international border. Thinking this
instability along with some short wave energy from 5h trof will
produce scattered showers on Weds...especially northern sections.
Will continue to mention chance pops...NAM is slower and would
suggest greater instability with a small threat for small
hail/gusty winds. My current thinking is convection on Tuesday and
associated outflow boundaries will help to forward the progression
of boundary into NH by Weds. Cooler and drier weather associated
with high pres ridge for Thursday.

A warm southwest flow develops ahead of our next front and
associated energy on Friday. Latest GFS trends show axis of
instability developing across our cwa by 00z Sat with CAPES around
800 j/kg and deep layer shear between 25 and 35 knots. Given
uncertainty on timing of system and amount of instability and
shear...will mention chance for showers and storms at this time.
A few lingering showers are possible on Saturday...before drier
and cooler air arrives by Sunday. Overall temps will be near
normal on Thursday...jump to above normal ahead of boundary on
Friday...before falling back close to normal over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12Z Monday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. VCSH
enters the forecast after 12z. High pressure and clear to
scattered cu at 060 the rest of this afternoon, then clearing
around sunset. Mid/high clouds move in west to east after midnight
associated with next trough of low pressure. Chance for showers
along the trough around 12z St. Lawrence Valley & KMSS, moving
east through the morning. Given lateness in forecast cycle and
some uncertainty only warrants vcsh in the TAF. South wind across
the region with some gusts to 70-20 kts this afternoon with
mixing, then winds diminish overnight. Gust potential picks up
again Monday morning through 18z as pressure gradient tightens
ahead of the trough.

Outlook 18Z Monday through Friday...

18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to
MVFR/brief IFR as a trough Monday and cold front Tuesday brings
showers and thunderstorms. Best chances for stronger storms on
Tuesday.

00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday...Mainly VFR with morning IFR in fog
mainly KMPV/KSLK. Lingering scattered showers over the higher
terrain affecting KSLK KMPV with MVFR vis.

00zThursday through Friday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Hanson




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261917
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
317 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North
Country through Sunday evening. Abundant sunshine, warm temperatures
in the mid 80s to low 90s with low humidity levels will persist
through tonight. Next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
Monday continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures then trend near to
below normal for the middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 112 PM EDT Sunday...Afternoon cumulus popping up mainly over
the mountainous sections of the forecast area, with St. Lawrence,
Champlain, and Connecticut valleys clear for the most part.
Temperatures tracking along nicely in the mid and upper 80s on
their way to afternoon highs in a few more hours of upper 80s to
around 90. No changes to the near term forecast.

The surface ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the
region. 5860-5880 m 500mb heights and 925mb temps increasing to
21-23C support highs today warming into the high 80s with low 90s
in the Champlain and St Lawrence Valley. Increased southerly flow
will begin to enhance low level moisture and so we should see a
slight increase in dew points however that will be mitigated in
humidity levels by the increase in temps as well. By mid morning
the southerly flow will become will become enhanced and we could
see some forced channeling gusts of 18-23 mph gusts in the
Champlain Valley. Should be a warm but pleasant last weekend in
June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...A very active weather day is anticipated on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. The trends
continue to support strong to possibly severe storms from the
northern Adirondacks into all of VT...with a slower frontal
arrival and greater surface heating resulting in higher
instability values. Primary threat would be one inch hail and
scattered damaging winds...along with localized very heavy
rainfall rates which could cause isolated flash flooding.

Strong mid/upper level trof will be across the eastern Great Lakes
by 18z Tuesday...with potent 5h short wave energy ejecting from the
Ohio Valley into the NE CONUS along a surface cold front draped
across our forecast area. GFS/NAM both show a favorable 250mb jet
couplet from right rear quad of 80 knot jet over southern Canada and
nose of left front of approaching jet over Ohio Valley arriving
around 18z Tuesday. This jet energy and approaching height falls
with trof will produce a strong upper level divergent signature
across our region...helping to promote deep layer lift.

Still some disagreement on amount of surface heating and associated
instability...but trends have been slower with frontal arrival and
greater with instability...especially dacks eastward. NAM surface
based CAPE values are between 1400 and 1800 j/kg with GFS 800 to
1200 j/kg...mainly across central/eastern VT. Have noted surface
temps in the lower 80s off the NAM and only lower 70s on the GFS
resulting in the instability difference. Based on progged 850mb
temps between 11C and 13C...and limited 850 to 500mb moisture across
our region in the morning...thinking temps will warm quickly into
the mid 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday...with surface dewpoints well
into the 60s. Noting lower 70s dwpts already pooling ahead of the
boundary across the Ohio Valley today and these will make a run at
us by Tuesday. These higher temps and dwpts will support CAPE values
around 1500 j/kg with pockets near 2000 j/kg by 18z Tuesday...which
combined with deep layer (0 to 6km) shear of 40 to 45 knots will
support organized convection. Based on progged instability and shear
parameters thinking mini supercells will be possible...evolving into
multicell clusters during the afternoon hours. The primary threat
will be damaging winds and one hail...especially from the dacks
eastward between noon and 6 pm on Tuesday.

The orientation of approaching boundary and favorable upper level
jet position...and pw values pooling between 1.50 and 1.75
inches...thinking localized heavy downpours will be
likely...especially as storms evolve into multicell clusters. The
intense rainfall rates associated with deep convection will need
to be watched closely for creating an increased threat for flash
flooding...especially if cells backbuild or train over mountains
terrain. Sounding vector analysis shows the potential for
backbuilding cells...as mid/upper level flow is paralleling the
low level boundary.

Given the increased severe weather threat and potential for
localized heavy downpours we will update HWO and place small
hail...gusty winds...and heavy downpours in zones with this package.
Our thinking is that if models are faster with front and show less
instability on Monday we can remove wording or if trends continue we
can add additional enhancement. Still plenty of time for shear and
instability parameters to change...but Tuesday should be monitored
closely.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...Front finally sweeps across our region overnight
on Tuesday into Weds with some lingering moisture and weak
instability noted near the international border. Thinking this
instability along with some short wave energy from 5h trof will
produce scattered showers on Weds...especially northern sections.
Will continue to mention chance pops...NAM is slower and would
suggest greater instability with a small threat for small
hail/gusty winds. My current thinking is convection on Tuesday and
associated outflow boundaries will help to forward the progression
of boundary into NH by Weds. Cooler and drier weather associated
with high pres ridge for Thursday.

A warm southwest flow develops ahead of our next front and
associated energy on Friday. Latest GFS trends show axis of
instability developing across our cwa by 00z Sat with CAPES around
800 j/kg and deep layer shear between 25 and 35 knots. Given
uncertainty on timing of system and amount of instability and
shear...will mention chance for showers and storms at this time.
A few lingering showers are possible on Saturday...before drier
and cooler air arrives by Sunday. Overall temps will be near
normal on Thursday...jump to above normal ahead of boundary on
Friday...before falling back close to normal over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12Z Monday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. VCSH
enters the forecast after 12z. High pressure and clear to
scattered cu at 060 the rest of this afternoon, then clearing
around sunset. Mid/high clouds move in west to east after midnight
associated with next trough of low pressure. Chance for showers
along the trough around 12z St. Lawrence Valley & KMSS, moving
east through the morning. Given lateness in forecast cycle and
some uncertainty only warrants vcsh in the TAF. South wind across
the region with some gusts to 70-20 kts this afternoon with
mixing, then winds diminish overnight. Gust potential picks up
again Monday morning through 18z as pressure gradient tightens
ahead of the trough.

Outlook 18Z Monday through Friday...

18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to
MVFR/brief IFR as a trough Monday and cold front Tuesday brings
showers and thunderstorms. Best chances for stronger storms on
Tuesday.

00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday...Mainly VFR with morning IFR in fog
mainly KMPV/KSLK. Lingering scattered showers over the higher
terrain affecting KSLK KMPV with MVFR vis.

00zThursday through Friday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal/Hanson
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Hanson




000
FXUS61 KALY 261751
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
151 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Some diurnal heating clouds forming...especially in mountain
areas. There could be a sprinkle in the southern Adirondacks but
not enough coverage or intensity to carry rain chances. Strong sun
will help temperatures get well into the 80s to around 90 this
afternoon with light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The pre-frontal trough will gradually move eastward across the
area on Monday, although models indicating it will also weaken as
it approaches. The upper level ridge will get flattened out
though, so some mainly diurnal convection with scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible. Will keep pops in low chance range
due to weak forcing and limited upper level dynamics. Instability
looks to be rather limited with weak shear, so only general
thunderstorms expected. Low chances for showers and maybe a few
storms will continue Monday night as the weakening trough
basically stalls and becomes diffuse by Tuesday morning. It will
remain very warm with increasing humidity levels on Monday, with
relatively muggy conditions expected Monday night.

Tuesday looks to be the most active weather day of the period, as
a cold front will be gradually progressing eastward across the
area. An associated vigorous upper level trough will be in very
close proximity upstream, with cyclonic vorticity advection
resulting in greater large scale ascent along with low level
convergence along the cold front. Deep layer shear will be
increasing, but the main question in terms of potential severe
weather will be how much instability can develop. The cold front
will already be on our western doorstep Tuesday morning, so it is
unclear how much sunshine and resulting surface heating will
occur. Will mention mostly cloudy skies, but even just a few
breaks of sunshine could result in sufficient CAPE for some
stronger storms to develop. It will remain warm and somewhat humid
on Tuesday until the cold front pushes through Tuesday night.

Will continue to mention chance pops Tuesday night as the cold
front finally moves through. Chances for thunder will gradually
diminish during the evening, with just showers expected after
midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather is expected to continue on Wednesday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms as a wave of low pressure
lifts northeast along a cold front just to our east. Due to cloud
cover and precipitation it will be cooler than recent days with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s.

The period from Wednesday night through Friday night looks mainly
dry although there could be an isolated shower on Friday or Friday
night. A large ridge of high pressure will expand eastward from
the Ohio Valley Thursday morning and settle across the middle
Atlantic region on Friday. Expect lows Wednesday night to be in
the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on Thursday in the upper 60s
to lower 80s. Lows Thursday night will be in the 50s to around 60
with highs on Friday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Friday
night will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

The next chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region
will be on Saturday when a cold front drops southeastward from the
eastern Great Lakes Saturday morning and passes through the region
on Saturday afternoon. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s
to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will continue to slowly move east of New England
this afternoon into tomorrow. A cold front will be approaching
from the eastern Great Lakes Region and southeast Canada tomorrow
afternoon.

VFR conditions will prevail mainly the next 24 hrs ending 18Z/MON
at KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. The exception will be some patchy
radiational IFR/MVFR mist/fog at KGFL/KPSF. Mostly clear
skies...light to calm winds...and dewpt temps creeping up may
allow for this period of mist/fog from 06Z-12Z.

Any mist/fog should quickly burn off in the mid-morning with
cirrus clouds around.

The winds will be from south/southeast at 4-8 kts this
afternoon...and become light to calm at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF before
04Z/MON. The winds will increase to 8-10 kts at KALB due to the
nocturnal funneling effect up the Hudson River Valley. The winds
will be generally from the south at 5-10 kts late tomorrow
morning.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 40 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 70 and 90 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Monday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, persisting
through tonight. Winds on Monday will continue to be southerly and
increase to around 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261723
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
123 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North
Country through Sunday evening. Abundant sunshine, warm temperatures
in the mid 80s to low 90s with low humidity levels will persist
through tonight. Next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
Monday continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures then trend near to
below normal for the middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 112 PM EDT Sunday...Afternoon cumulus popping up mainly over
the mountainous sections of the forecast area, with St. Lawrence,
Champlain, and Connecticut valleys clear for the most part.
Temperatures tracking along nicely in the mid and upper 80s on
their way to afternoon highs in a few more hours of upper 80s to
around 90. No changes to the near term forecast.

The surface ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the
region. 5860-5880 m 500mb heights and 925mb temps increasing to
21-23C support highs today warming into the high 80s with low 90s
in the Champlain and St Lawrence Valley. Increased southerly flow
will begin to enhance low level moisture and so we should see a
slight increase in dew points however that will be mitigated in
humidity levels by the increase in temps as well. By mid morning
the southerly flow will become will become enhanced and we could
see some forced channeling gusts of 18-23 mph gusts in the
Champlain Valley. Should be a warm but pleasant last weekend in
June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 439 AM EDT Sunday...On Monday, a pre-frontal surface trough
of low pressure will move into the region. This will bring in some
scattered rain showers into the region on Monday. Models showing
this feature will weaken during the day on Monday as it moves
eastward. The best chance for any thunderstorms on Monday will be
in the Saint lawrence valley in northern New York. SPC has this
area in a general thunderstorm outlook for Monday. Will continue
with low chance pops for rain showers Monday night.

On Tuesday, there will be a better chance for thunderstorms,
mainly Tuesday afternoon from the Adirondacks eastward across
Vermont. 0-6 km bulk shear is around 40-45 knots, with surface
based capes around 1000-1500 j/kg. Cloud cover across the region
could limit the amount of instability, although there is a chance
for few storms to produce locally strong wind gusts and small
hail. SPC has the region in a general thunderstorm outlook for
Tuesday. This activity will be occurring ahead of a cold front
that will move into the region Tuesday afternoon. Also, models
show a sharp upper trough will approach the region on Tuesday from
the eastern Great Lakes. Expecting rain showers to linger into
Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 439 AM EDT Sunday...Models show an upper trough will move
through the region on Wednesday, so have kept in chance pops for
rain showers. Models now trending a bit faster with this upper
trough and now have it east of the region by Wednesday night. Fair
and dry weather expected from Wednesday night through Thursday
night. An upper low over Canada will bring a chance for more rain
showers over the region by Friday afternoon and continuing into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12Z Monday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. VCSH
enters the forecast after 12z. High pressure and clear to
scattered cu at 060 the rest of this afternoon, then clearing
around sunset. Mid/high clouds move in west to east after midnight
associated with next trough of low pressure. Chance for showers
along the trough around 12z St. Lawrence Valley & KMSS, moving
east through the morning. Given lateness in forecast cycle and
some uncertainty only warrants vcsh in the TAF. South wind across
the region with some gusts to 70-20 kts this afternoon with
mixing, then winds diminish overnight. Gust potential picks up
again Monday morning through 18z as pressure gradient tightens
ahead of the trough.

Outlook 18Z Monday through Friday...

18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to
MVFR/brief IFR as a trough Monday and cold front Tuesday brings
showers and thunderstorms. Best chances for stronger storms on
Tuesday.

00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday...Mainly VFR with morning IFR in fog
mainly KMPV/KSLK. Lingering scattered showers over the higher
terrain affecting KSLK KMPV with MVFR vis.

00zThursday through Friday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal/Hanson
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Hanson




000
FXUS61 KALY 261715
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
115 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Some diurnal heating clouds foring...especially in mountain areas.
There could be a sprinkle in the southern Adirondacks but not
enough coverage or intensity to carry rain chances. Strong sun
will help temperatures get well into the 80s to around 90 this
afternoon with light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The pre-frontal trough will gradually move eastward across the
area on Monday, although models indicating it will also weaken as
it approaches. The upper level ridge will get flattened out
though, so some mainly diurnal convection with scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible. Will keep pops in low chance range
due to weak forcing and limited upper level dynamics. Instability
looks to be rather limited with weak shear, so only general
thunderstorms expected. Low chances for showers and maybe a few
storms will continue Monday night as the weakening trough
basically stalls and becomes diffuse by Tuesday morning. It will
remain very warm with increasing humidity levels on Monday, with
relatively muggy conditions expected Monday night.

Tuesday looks to be the most active weather day of the period, as
a cold front will be gradually progressing eastward across the
area. An associated vigorous upper level trough will be in very
close proximity upstream, with cyclonic vorticity advection
resulting in greater large scale ascent along with low level
convergence along the cold front. Deep layer shear will be
increasing, but the main question in terms of potential severe
weather will be how much instability can develop. The cold front
will already be on our western doorstep Tuesday morning, so it is
unclear how much sunshine and resulting surface heating will
occur. Will mention mostly cloudy skies, but even just a few
breaks of sunshine could result in sufficient CAPE for some
stronger storms to develop. It will remain warm and somewhat humid
on Tuesday until the cold front pushes through Tuesday night.

Will continue to mention chance pops Tuesday night as the cold
front finally moves through. Chances for thunder will gradually
diminish during the evening, with just showers expected after
midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather is expected to continue on Wednesday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms as a wave of low pressure
lifts northeast along a cold front just to our east. Due to cloud
cover and precipitation it will be cooler than recent days with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s.

The period from Wednesday night through Friday night looks mainly
dry although there could be an isolated shower on Friday or Friday
night. A large ridge of high pressure will expand eastward from
the Ohio Valley Thursday morning and settle across the middle
Atlantic region on Friday. Expect lows Wednesday night to be in
the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on Thursday in the upper 60s
to lower 80s. Lows Thursday night will be in the 50s to around 60
with highs on Friday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Friday
night will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

The next chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region
will be on Saturday when a cold front drops southeastward from the
eastern Great Lakes Saturday morning and passes through the region
on Saturday afternoon. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s
to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR Conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the
end of the TAF period ending at 12Z Monday. Skies will generally
be FEW090 SCT250 with south winds up to 8 kts. The winds will
diminish again this evening with skies becoming BKN250.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 40 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 70 and 90 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Monday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, persisting
through tonight. Winds on Monday will continue to be southerly and
increase to around 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 261715
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
115 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Some diurnal heating clouds foring...especially in mountain areas.
There could be a sprinkle in the southern Adirondacks but not
enough coverage or intensity to carry rain chances. Strong sun
will help temperatures get well into the 80s to around 90 this
afternoon with light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The pre-frontal trough will gradually move eastward across the
area on Monday, although models indicating it will also weaken as
it approaches. The upper level ridge will get flattened out
though, so some mainly diurnal convection with scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible. Will keep pops in low chance range
due to weak forcing and limited upper level dynamics. Instability
looks to be rather limited with weak shear, so only general
thunderstorms expected. Low chances for showers and maybe a few
storms will continue Monday night as the weakening trough
basically stalls and becomes diffuse by Tuesday morning. It will
remain very warm with increasing humidity levels on Monday, with
relatively muggy conditions expected Monday night.

Tuesday looks to be the most active weather day of the period, as
a cold front will be gradually progressing eastward across the
area. An associated vigorous upper level trough will be in very
close proximity upstream, with cyclonic vorticity advection
resulting in greater large scale ascent along with low level
convergence along the cold front. Deep layer shear will be
increasing, but the main question in terms of potential severe
weather will be how much instability can develop. The cold front
will already be on our western doorstep Tuesday morning, so it is
unclear how much sunshine and resulting surface heating will
occur. Will mention mostly cloudy skies, but even just a few
breaks of sunshine could result in sufficient CAPE for some
stronger storms to develop. It will remain warm and somewhat humid
on Tuesday until the cold front pushes through Tuesday night.

Will continue to mention chance pops Tuesday night as the cold
front finally moves through. Chances for thunder will gradually
diminish during the evening, with just showers expected after
midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather is expected to continue on Wednesday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms as a wave of low pressure
lifts northeast along a cold front just to our east. Due to cloud
cover and precipitation it will be cooler than recent days with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s.

The period from Wednesday night through Friday night looks mainly
dry although there could be an isolated shower on Friday or Friday
night. A large ridge of high pressure will expand eastward from
the Ohio Valley Thursday morning and settle across the middle
Atlantic region on Friday. Expect lows Wednesday night to be in
the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on Thursday in the upper 60s
to lower 80s. Lows Thursday night will be in the 50s to around 60
with highs on Friday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Friday
night will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

The next chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region
will be on Saturday when a cold front drops southeastward from the
eastern Great Lakes Saturday morning and passes through the region
on Saturday afternoon. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s
to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR Conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the
end of the TAF period ending at 12Z Monday. Skies will generally
be FEW090 SCT250 with south winds up to 8 kts. The winds will
diminish again this evening with skies becoming BKN250.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 40 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 70 and 90 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Monday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, persisting
through tonight. Winds on Monday will continue to be southerly and
increase to around 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 261430
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1030 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM EDT...Not much to change in the near term forecast
with high pressure in control near the Northeast...and light south
to southeast winds from the return flow of the anticyclone starting
to increase the humidity levels. The 12Z KALY sounding indicates
few-sct cumulus are possible...but a capping inversion in the
700-800 hPa level should inhibit any isolated showers.
Overall...mostly sunny conditions with perhaps partly sunny skies
over the mountains due to sct cumulus. High temps in the mid 80s
to around 90F are possible in the valley areas with good mixing
from H850/800. It would be Albany`s 4th 90F day of the warm
season...and the third for June. We bumped temps a degree or two.

Expecting a warm night across the area tonight as a southerly
flow persists ahead of a pre-frontal trough that will be
approaching from the eastern Great Lakes. Models in decent
agreement with any qpf remaining north and west of the area until
late, when a few showers or isolated thunder may move into the
western Adirondacks. Most of the area should remain dry through
sunrise Monday though.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The pre-frontal trough will gradually move eastward across the
area on Monday, although models indicating it will also weaken as
it approaches. The upper level ridge will get flattened out
though, so some mainly diurnal convection with scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible. Will keep pops in low chance range
due to weak forcing and limited upper level dynamics. Instability
looks to be rather limited with weak shear, so only general
thunderstorms expected. Low chances for showers and maybe a few
storms will continue Monday night as the weakening trough
basically stalls and becomes diffuse by Tuesday morning. It will
remain very warm with increasing humidity levels on Monday, with
relatively muggy conditions expected Monday night.

Tuesday looks to be the most active weather day of the period, as
a cold front will be gradually progressing eastward across the
area. An associated vigorous upper level trough will be in very
close proximity upstream, with cyclonic vorticity advection
resulting in greater large scale ascent along with low level
convergence along the cold front. Deep layer shear will be
increasing, but the main question in terms of potential severe
weather will be how much instability can develop. The cold front
will already be on our western doorstep Tuesday morning, so it is
unclear how much sunshine and resulting surface heating will
occur. Will mention mostly cloudy skies, but even just a few
breaks of sunshine could result in sufficient CAPE for some
stronger storms to develop. It will remain warm and somewhat humid
on Tuesday until the cold front pushes through Tuesday night.

Will continue to mention chance pops Tuesday night as the cold
front finally moves through. Chances for thunder will gradually
diminish during the evening, with just showers expected after
midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather is expected to continue on Wednesday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms as a wave of low pressure
lifts northeast along a cold front just to our east. Due to cloud
cover and precipitation it will be cooler than recent days with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s.

The period from Wednesday night through Friday night looks mainly
dry although there could be an isolated shower on Friday or Friday
night. A large ridge of high pressure will expand eastward from
the Ohio Valley Thursday morning and settle across the middle
Atlantic region on Friday. Expect lows Wednesday night to be in
the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on Thursday in the upper 60s
to lower 80s. Lows Thursday night will be in the 50s to around 60
with highs on Friday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Friday
night will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

The next chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region
will be on Saturday when a cold front drops southeastward from the
eastern Great Lakes Saturday morning and passes through the region
on Saturday afternoon. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s
to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR Conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the
end of the TAF period ending at 12Z Monday. Skies will generally
be FEW090 SCT250 with south winds up to 8 kts. The winds will
diminish again this evening with skies becoming BKN250.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 40 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 70 and 90 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Monday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, persisting
through tonight. Winds on Monday will continue to be southerly and
increase to around 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/Wasula
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261415
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1015 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North
Country through Sunday evening. Abundant sunshine, warm temperatures
in the mid 80s to low 90s with low humidity levels will persist
through tonight. Next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
Monday continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures then trend near to
below normal for the middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1012 AM EDT Sunday...Forecast tracking along with observed
in a spectacular fashion. Hourly temperatures dead on with
observed, on our way to highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Only
change was to the sky grids to add just a touch more sunshine
based on current visible satellite trends. Sunny to mostly sunny
in the valleys and a few more afternoon cumulus clouds over the
mountains.

The surface ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the
region. 5860-5880 m 500mb heights and 925mb temps increasing to
21-23C support highs today warming into the high 80s with low 90s
in the Champlain and St Lawrence Valley. Increased southerly flow
will begin to enhance low level moisture and so we should see a
slight increase in dew points however that will be mitigated in
humidity levels by the increase in temps as well. By mid morning
the southerly flow will become will become enhanced and we could
see some forced channeling gusts of 18-23 mph gusts in the
Champlain Valley. Should be a warm but pleasant last weekend in
June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 439 AM EDT Sunday...On Monday, a pre-frontal surface trough
of low pressure will move into the region. This will bring in some
scattered rain showers into the region on Monday. Models showing
this feature will weaken during the day on Monday as it moves
eastward. The best chance for any thunderstorms on Monday will be
in the Saint lawrence valley in northern New York. SPC has this
area in a general thunderstorm outlook for Monday. Will continue
with low chance pops for rain showers Monday night.

On Tuesday, there will be a better chance for thunderstorms,
mainly Tuesday afternoon from the Adirondacks eastward across
Vermont. 0-6 km bulk shear is around 40-45 knots, with surface
based capes around 1000-1500 j/kg. Cloud cover across the region
could limit the amount of instability, although there is a chance
for few storms to produce locally strong wind gusts and small
hail. SPC has the region in a general thunderstorm outlook for
Tuesday. This activity will be occurring ahead of a cold front
that will move into the region Tuesday afternoon. Also, models
show a sharp upper trough will approach the region on Tuesday from
the eastern Great Lakes. Expecting rain showers to linger into
Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 439 AM EDT Sunday...Models show an upper trough will move
through the region on Wednesday, so have kept in chance pops for
rain showers. Models now trending a bit faster with this upper
trough and now have it east of the region by Wednesday night. Fair
and dry weather expected from Wednesday night through Thursday
night. An upper low over Canada will bring a chance for more rain
showers over the region by Friday afternoon and continuing into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 12Z Monday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. High
pressure remains in control and will keep generally mostly clear
skies. Some light few-sct convective debris clouds at 14-16kft
have filtered into northern New York but aren`t critical for
aviation purposes. Winds remain light/variable at all terminals
but will be picking up shortly and become southerly 5-10kts with
gusts to 15 possible during the afternoon.

Outlook 12Z Sunday through Thursday...

12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to
MVFR/brief IFR as a cold front brings showers and t-storms. Couple
storms may become strong Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

00z Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal/Hanson
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Deal/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261415
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1015 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North
Country through Sunday evening. Abundant sunshine, warm temperatures
in the mid 80s to low 90s with low humidity levels will persist
through tonight. Next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
Monday continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures then trend near to
below normal for the middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1012 AM EDT Sunday...Forecast tracking along with observed
in a spectacular fashion. Hourly temperatures dead on with
observed, on our way to highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Only
change was to the sky grids to add just a touch more sunshine
based on current visible satellite trends. Sunny to mostly sunny
in the valleys and a few more afternoon cumulus clouds over the
mountains.

The surface ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the
region. 5860-5880 m 500mb heights and 925mb temps increasing to
21-23C support highs today warming into the high 80s with low 90s
in the Champlain and St Lawrence Valley. Increased southerly flow
will begin to enhance low level moisture and so we should see a
slight increase in dew points however that will be mitigated in
humidity levels by the increase in temps as well. By mid morning
the southerly flow will become will become enhanced and we could
see some forced channeling gusts of 18-23 mph gusts in the
Champlain Valley. Should be a warm but pleasant last weekend in
June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 439 AM EDT Sunday...On Monday, a pre-frontal surface trough
of low pressure will move into the region. This will bring in some
scattered rain showers into the region on Monday. Models showing
this feature will weaken during the day on Monday as it moves
eastward. The best chance for any thunderstorms on Monday will be
in the Saint lawrence valley in northern New York. SPC has this
area in a general thunderstorm outlook for Monday. Will continue
with low chance pops for rain showers Monday night.

On Tuesday, there will be a better chance for thunderstorms,
mainly Tuesday afternoon from the Adirondacks eastward across
Vermont. 0-6 km bulk shear is around 40-45 knots, with surface
based capes around 1000-1500 j/kg. Cloud cover across the region
could limit the amount of instability, although there is a chance
for few storms to produce locally strong wind gusts and small
hail. SPC has the region in a general thunderstorm outlook for
Tuesday. This activity will be occurring ahead of a cold front
that will move into the region Tuesday afternoon. Also, models
show a sharp upper trough will approach the region on Tuesday from
the eastern Great Lakes. Expecting rain showers to linger into
Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 439 AM EDT Sunday...Models show an upper trough will move
through the region on Wednesday, so have kept in chance pops for
rain showers. Models now trending a bit faster with this upper
trough and now have it east of the region by Wednesday night. Fair
and dry weather expected from Wednesday night through Thursday
night. An upper low over Canada will bring a chance for more rain
showers over the region by Friday afternoon and continuing into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 12Z Monday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. High
pressure remains in control and will keep generally mostly clear
skies. Some light few-sct convective debris clouds at 14-16kft
have filtered into northern New York but aren`t critical for
aviation purposes. Winds remain light/variable at all terminals
but will be picking up shortly and become southerly 5-10kts with
gusts to 15 possible during the afternoon.

Outlook 12Z Sunday through Thursday...

12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to
MVFR/brief IFR as a cold front brings showers and t-storms. Couple
storms may become strong Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

00z Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal/Hanson
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Deal/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261142
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
742 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North
Country through Sunday evening. Abundant sunshine, warm temperatures
in the mid 80s to low 90s with low humidity levels will persist
through tonight. Next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
Monday continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures then trend near to
below normal for the middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 738 AM EDT Sunday...The surface ridge of high pressure
continues to dominate the region. 5860-5880 m 500mb heights and
925mb temps increasing to 21-23C support highs today warming into
the high 80s with low 90s in the Champlain and St Lawrence Valley.
Increased southerly flow will begin to enhance low level moisture
and so we should see a slight increase in dew points however that
will be mitigated in humidity levels by the increase in temps as
well. By mid morning the southerly flow will become will become
enhanced and we could see some forced channeling gusts of 18-23
mph gusts in the Champlain Valley. Should be a warm but pleasant
last weekend in June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 439 AM EDT Sunday...On Monday, a pre-frontal surface trough
of low pressure will move into the region. This will bring in some
scattered rain showers into the region on Monday. Models showing
this feature will weaken during the day on Monday as it moves
eastward. The best chance for any thunderstorms on Monday will be
in the Saint lawrence valley in northern New York. SPC has this
area in a general thunderstorm outlook for Monday. Will continue
with low chance pops for rain showers Monday night.

On Tuesday, there will be a better chance for thunderstorms,
mainly Tuesday afternoon from the Adirondacks eastward across
Vermont. 0-6 km bulk shear is around 40-45 knots, with surface
based capes around 1000-1500 j/kg. Cloud cover across the region
could limit the amount of instability, although there is a chance
for few storms to produce locally strong wind gusts and small
hail. SPC has the region in a general thunderstorm outlook for
Tuesday. This activity will be occurring ahead of a cold front
that will move into the region Tuesday afternoon. Also, models
show a sharp upper trough will approach the region on Tuesday from
the eastern Great Lakes. Expecting rain showers to linger into
Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 439 AM EDT Sunday...Models show an upper trough will move
through the region on Wednesday, so have kept in chance pops for
rain showers. Models now trending a bit faster with this upper
trough and now have it east of the region by Wednesday night. Fair
and dry weather expected from Wednesday night through Thursday
night. An upper low over Canada will bring a chance for more rain
showers over the region by Friday afternoon and continuing into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 12Z Monday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. High
pressure remains in control and will keep generally mostly clear
skies. Some light few-sct convective debris clouds at 14-16kft
have filtered into northern New York but aren`t critical for
aviation purposes. Winds remain light/variable at all terminals
but will be picking up shortly and become southerly 5-10kts with
gusts to 15 possible during the afternoon.

Outlook 12Z Sunday through Thursday...

12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to
MVFR/brief IFR as a cold front brings showers and t-storms. Couple
storms may become strong Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

00z Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Deal/MV




000
FXUS61 KALY 261030
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
630 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM EDT...High pressure remains in control just to our
east, although some high level cirrus clouds courtesy of
convective debris from the upper Great Lakes will be moving
through today. Difficult to determine if the clouds will remain
rather thick or thin out as they move across our region. Due to
the upper level ridge axis in place, will expect clouds to not
inhibit solar heating. Some diurnal fair weather cu are also
expected to develop. Once again no convection expected due to
capped environment. It will be another very warm day, with most
areas reaching the mid to upper 80s for highs this afternoon.
Humidity will start to creep up with dewpoints approaching or
slightly exceeding 60. However, humidity levels remain relatively
low for late June.

Expecting a warm night across the area tonight as a southerly
flow persists ahead of a pre-frontal trough that will be
approaching from the eastern Great Lakes. Models in decent
agreement with any qpf remaining north and west of the area until
late, when a few showers or isolated thunder may move into the
western Adirondacks. Most of the area should remain dry through
sunrise Monday though.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The pre-frontal trough will gradually move eastward across the
area on Monday, although models indicating it will also weaken as
it approaches. The upper level ridge will get flattened out
though, so some mainly diurnal convection with scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible. Will keep pops in low chance range
due to weak forcing and limited upper level dynamics. Instability
looks to be rather limited with weak shear, so only general
thunderstorms expected. Low chances for showers and maybe a few
storms will continue Monday night as the weakening trough
basically stalls and becomes diffuse by Tuesday morning. It will
remain very warm with increasing humidity levels on Monday, with
relatively muggy conditions expected Monday night.

Tuesday looks to be the most active weather day of the period, as
a cold front will be gradually progressing eastward across the
area. An associated vigorous upper level trough will be in very
close proximity upstream, with cyclonic vorticity advection
resulting in greater large scale ascent along with low level
convergence along the cold front. Deep layer shear will be
increasing, but the main question in terms of potential severe
weather will be how much instability can develop. The cold front
will already be on our western doorstep Tuesday morning, so it is
unclear how much sunshine and resulting surface heating will
occur. Will mention mostly cloudy skies, but even just a few
breaks of sunshine could result in sufficient CAPE for some
stronger storms to develop. It will remain warm and somewhat humid
on Tuesday until the cold front pushes through Tuesday night.

Will continue to mention chance pops Tuesday night as the cold
front finally moves through. Chances for thunder will gradually
diminish during the evening, with just showers expected after
midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather is expected to continue on Wednesday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms as a wave of low pressure
lifts northeast along a cold front just to our east. Due to cloud
cover and precipitation it will be cooler than recent days with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s.

The period from Wednesday night through Friday night looks mainly
dry although there could be an isolated shower on Friday or Friday
night. A large ridge of high pressure will expand eastward from
the Ohio Valley Thursday morning and settle across the middle
Atlantic region on Friday. Expect lows Wednesday night to be in
the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on Thursday in the upper 60s
to lower 80s. Lows Thursday night will be in the 50s to around 60
with highs on Friday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Friday
night will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

The next chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region
will be on Saturday when a cold front drops southeastward from the
eastern Great Lakes Saturday morning and passes through the region
on Saturday afternoon. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s
to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR Conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the
end of the TAF period ending at 12Z Monday. Skies will generally
be FEW090 SCT250 with south winds up to 8 kts. The winds will
diminish again this evening with skies becoming BKN250.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 40 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 70 and 90 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Monday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, persisting
through tonight. Winds on Monday will continue to be southerly and
increase to around 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 261006
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
606 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT...High pressure remains in control just to our
east, although some high level cirrus clouds courtesy of
convective debris from the upper Great Lakes will be moving
through today. Difficult to determine if the clouds will remain
rather thick or thin out as they move across our region. Due to
the upper level ridge axis in place, will expect clouds to not
inhibit solar heating. Some diurnal fair weather cu are also
expected to develop. Once again no convection expected due to
capped environment. It will be another very warm day, with most
areas reaching the mid to upper 80s for highs this afternoon.
Humidity will start to creep up with dewpoints approaching or
slightly exceeding 60. However, humidity levels remain relatively
low for late June.

Expecting a warm night across the area tonight as a southerly
flow persists ahead of a pre-frontal trough that will be
approaching from the eastern Great Lakes. Models in decent
agreement with any qpf remaining north and west of the area until
late, when a few showers or isolated thunder may move into the
western Adirondacks. Most of the area should remain dry through
sunrise Monday though.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The pre-frontal trough will gradually move eastward across the
area on Monday, although models indicating it will also weaken as
it approaches. The upper level ridge will get flattened out
though, so some mainly diurnal convection with scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible. Will keep pops in low chance range
due to weak forcing and limited upper level dynamics. Instability
looks to be rather limited with weak shear, so only general
thunderstorms expected. Low chances for showers and maybe a few
storms will continue Monday night as the weakening trough
basically stalls and becomes diffuse by Tuesday morning. It will
remain very warm with increasing humidity levels on Monday, with
relatively muggy conditions expected Monday night.

Tuesday looks to be the most active weather day of the period, as
a cold front will be gradually progressing eastward across the
area. An associated vigorous upper level trough will be in very
close proximity upstream, with cyclonic vorticity advection
resulting in greater large scale ascent along with low level
convergence along the cold front. Deep layer shear will be
increasing, but the main question in terms of potential severe
weather will be how much instability can develop. The cold front
will already be on our western doorstep Tuesday morning, so it is
unclear how much sunshine and resulting surface heating will
occur. Will mention mostly cloudy skies, but even just a few
breaks of sunshine could result in sufficient CAPE for some
stronger storms to develop. It will remain warm and somewhat humid
on Tuesday until the cold front pushes through Tuesday night.

Will continue to mention chance pops Tuesday night as the cold
front finally moves through. Chances for thunder will gradually
diminish during the evening, with just showers expected after
midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather is expected to continue on Wednesday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms as a wave of low pressure
lifts northeast along a cold front just to our east. Due to cloud
cover and precipitation it will be cooler than recent days with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s.

The period from Wednesday night through Friday night looks mainly
dry although there could be an isolated shower on Friday or Friday
night. A large ridge of high pressure will expand eastward from
the Ohio Valley Thursday morning and settle across the middle
Atlantic region on Friday. Expect lows Wednesday night to be in
the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on Thursday in the upper 60s
to lower 80s. Lows Thursday night will be in the 50s to around 60
with highs on Friday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Friday
night will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

The next chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region
will be on Saturday when a cold front drops southeastward from the
eastern Great Lakes Saturday morning and passes through the region
on Saturday afternoon. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s
to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR Conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the
end of the TAF period ending at 12Z Monday. Skies will generally
be FEW090 SCT250 with south winds up to 8 kts. The winds will
diminish again this evening with skies becoming BKN250.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 40 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 70 and 90 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Monday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, persisting
through tonight. Winds on Monday will continue to be southerly and
increase to around 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260840
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
440 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North
Country through Sunday evening. Abundant sunshine, warm temperatures
in the mid 80s to low 90s with low humidity levels will persist
through tonight. Next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
Monday continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures then trend near to
below normal for the middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EDT Sunday...The surface ridge of high pressure
continues to dominate the region.  5860-5880 m 500mb heights and
925mb temps increasing to 21-23C support highs today warming into
the high 80s with low 90s in the Champlain and St Lawrence Valley.
Increased southerly flow will begin to enhance low level moisture
and so we should see a slight increase in dew points however that
will be mitigated in humidity levels by the increase in temps as
well. By mid morning the southerly flow will become will become
enhanced and we could see some forced channeling gusts of 18-23 mph
gusts in the Champlain Valley.  Should be a warm but pleasant last
weekend in June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 439 AM EDT Sunday...On Monday, a pre-frontal surface trough
of low pressure will move into the region. This will bring in some
scattered rain showers into the region on Monday. Models showing
this feature will weaken during the day on Monday as it moves
eastward. The best chance for any thunderstorms on Monday will be
in the Saint lawrence valley in northern New York. SPC has this
area in a general thunderstorm outlook for Monday. Will continue
with low chance pops for rain showers Monday night.

On Tuesday, there will be a better chance for thunderstorms,
mainly Tuesday afternoon from the Adirondacks eastward across
Vermont. 0-6 km bulk shear is around 40-45 knots, with surface
based capes around 1000-1500 j/kg. Cloud cover across the region
could limit the amount of instability, although there is a chance
for few storms to produce locally strong wind gusts and small
hail. SPC has the region in a general thunderstorm outlook for
Tuesday. This activity will be occurring ahead of a cold front
that will move into the region Tuesday afternoon. Also, models
show a sharp upper trough will approach the region on Tuesday from
the eastern Great Lakes. Expecting rain showers to linger into
Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 439 AM EDT Sunday...Models show an upper trough will move
through the region on Wednesday, so have kept in chance pops for
rain showers. Models now trending a bit faster with this upper
trough and now have it east of the region by Wednesday night. Fair
and dry weather expected from Wednesday night through Thursday
night. An upper low over Canada will bring a chance for more rain
showers over the region by Friday afternoon and continuing into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 06Z Monday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. High
pressure remains in control and will keep generally mostly clear
skies. There will be some light convective debris clouds filtering
late over northern New York in the 14-16kft range. Winds
light/variable overnight gradually becoming southerly 5-10kts
Sunday morning.

Outlook 06Z Sunday through Thursday...

06Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to
MVFR/brief IFR as a cold front brings showers and t-storms. Couple
storms may become strong Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

00z Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Deal/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260840
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
440 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North
Country through Sunday evening. Abundant sunshine, warm temperatures
in the mid 80s to low 90s with low humidity levels will persist
through tonight. Next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
Monday continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures then trend near to
below normal for the middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EDT Sunday...The surface ridge of high pressure
continues to dominate the region.  5860-5880 m 500mb heights and
925mb temps increasing to 21-23C support highs today warming into
the high 80s with low 90s in the Champlain and St Lawrence Valley.
Increased southerly flow will begin to enhance low level moisture
and so we should see a slight increase in dew points however that
will be mitigated in humidity levels by the increase in temps as
well. By mid morning the southerly flow will become will become
enhanced and we could see some forced channeling gusts of 18-23 mph
gusts in the Champlain Valley.  Should be a warm but pleasant last
weekend in June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 439 AM EDT Sunday...On Monday, a pre-frontal surface trough
of low pressure will move into the region. This will bring in some
scattered rain showers into the region on Monday. Models showing
this feature will weaken during the day on Monday as it moves
eastward. The best chance for any thunderstorms on Monday will be
in the Saint lawrence valley in northern New York. SPC has this
area in a general thunderstorm outlook for Monday. Will continue
with low chance pops for rain showers Monday night.

On Tuesday, there will be a better chance for thunderstorms,
mainly Tuesday afternoon from the Adirondacks eastward across
Vermont. 0-6 km bulk shear is around 40-45 knots, with surface
based capes around 1000-1500 j/kg. Cloud cover across the region
could limit the amount of instability, although there is a chance
for few storms to produce locally strong wind gusts and small
hail. SPC has the region in a general thunderstorm outlook for
Tuesday. This activity will be occurring ahead of a cold front
that will move into the region Tuesday afternoon. Also, models
show a sharp upper trough will approach the region on Tuesday from
the eastern Great Lakes. Expecting rain showers to linger into
Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 439 AM EDT Sunday...Models show an upper trough will move
through the region on Wednesday, so have kept in chance pops for
rain showers. Models now trending a bit faster with this upper
trough and now have it east of the region by Wednesday night. Fair
and dry weather expected from Wednesday night through Thursday
night. An upper low over Canada will bring a chance for more rain
showers over the region by Friday afternoon and continuing into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 06Z Monday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. High
pressure remains in control and will keep generally mostly clear
skies. There will be some light convective debris clouds filtering
late over northern New York in the 14-16kft range. Winds
light/variable overnight gradually becoming southerly 5-10kts
Sunday morning.

Outlook 06Z Sunday through Thursday...

06Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to
MVFR/brief IFR as a cold front brings showers and t-storms. Couple
storms may become strong Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

00z Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Deal/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260811
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
411 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North
Country through Sunday evening. Abundant sunshine, warm temperatures
in the mid 80s to low 90s with low humidity levels will persist
through tonight. Next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
Monday continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures then trend near to
below normal for the middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EDT Sunday...The surface ridge of high pressure
continues to dominate the region.  5860-5880 m 500mb heights and
925mb temps increasing to 21-23C support highs today warming into
the high 80s with low 90s in the Champlain and St Lawrence Valley.
Increased southerly flow will begin to enhance low level moisture
and so we should see a slight increase in dew points however that
will be mitigated in humidity levels by the increase in temps as
well. By mid morning the southerly flow will become will become
enhanced and we could see some forced channeling gusts of 18-23 mph
gusts in the Champlain Valley.  Should be a warm but pleasant last
weekend in June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Mid/upper level ridge across the
eastern CONUS will slowly breakdown as a series of short waves and
associated 5h trof approach the region. The first pre-frontal trof
and embedded 5h vort in the southwest flow aloft arrives by 12z
Saint Lawrence Valley and moves from west to east across our cwa
on Monday. Dynamics are weakening with this system and axis of
enhanced 850 to 500mb moisture is very narrow...resulting in a 1
to 3 hour window for mainly showers on Monday. Have noted SPC
place our northern NY in marginal outlook...but best instability
occurs after dynamics and ribbon of mid level moisture shifts to
the east of greatest instability and deep layer shear. Based on
limited instability and timing will mention showers with isolated
thunder on Monday...with highest pops/qpf across northern NY.
Thinking initial band of showers will enhance low level moisture
and result in greater instability parameter across Saint Lawrence
Valley after 18z Monday...but soundings are very dry and upstream
forcing is very weak. A mild night is expected Sunday Night with
developing southerly flow ahead of pre-frontal trough with
readings mainly in the 60s to near 70f Champlain Valley. Highs on
Monday afternoon in the 80s....with increasing surface dwpt values
from expected rain showers will produce some higher humidity
values. Another warm and muggy night is expected on monday with
lows mainly in the 60s to near 70f again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Still anticipating an active day on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms...with some
uncertainty on the degree of instability. Synoptic scale shows
strong mid/upper level trof across the northern Great Lakes
approaching the Saint Lawrence Valley by 12z Tuesday with a
surface cold front draped over northern NY. The forecast challenge
will be how much surface heating and instability can develop
before clouds and showers develop. Model progs show surface based
CAPE values between 700-1000 J/kg with most unstable values
associated with warmer surface temperatures/higher dwpts between
1000 and 1500 J/kg from the Dacks eastward. Given the available
upper level forcing...a ribbon of 700 to 500mb winds of 35 to 45
knots...creating deep layer 0 to 6 km shear values around 40
knots...some robust updrafts will support scattered stronger
thunderstorms. The best interaction of instability and shear looks
to occur over central and eastern VT...given expected position of
boundary and location of right rear quad of 75 knot jet at 250mb.
The primary focus would be gusty winds and small hail...if current
progged stability and shear profiles verify. Will continue to
mention likely to cat pops central and eastern cwa with scattered
convection...but not mention enhanced wording due to uncertainty
associated with instability. Still plenty of time to determine
areal coverage of clouds and associated impacts on surface heating
and instability along with timing of boundary.

Wednesday...mid/upper level trof axis swings across our region with
associated cool pocket aloft. This energy and leftover moisture will
produce additional scattered showers on Weds...with highest pops
across the mountains. Thermal profiles support slightly below normal
temperatures with readings mainly in the mid/upper 60s mountains to
mid/upper 70s warmer valleys with progged 850mb temps around 11c.

Thursday through Saturday...fast zonal flow aloft with general
mid/upper level trof will continue with weak short wave ridge by
Friday. This supports a dry forecast on Friday with near normal
temps. Latest trends show the potential for a few lingering leftover
showers on Thursday with trof. Another front along with energy aloft
is expected to impact our region on Friday night into Saturday with
additional showers. Plenty of uncertainty on timing and magnitude of
system...so will just mention chance pops at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 06Z Monday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. High
pressure remains in control and will keep generally mostly clear
skies. There will be some light convective debris clouds filtering
late over northern New York in the 14-16kft range. Winds
light/variable overnight gradually becoming southerly 5-10kts
Sunday morning.

Outlook 06Z Sunday through Thursday...

06Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to
MVFR/brief IFR as a cold front brings showers and t-storms. Couple
storms may become strong Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

00z Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Deal/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260811
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
411 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North
Country through Sunday evening. Abundant sunshine, warm temperatures
in the mid 80s to low 90s with low humidity levels will persist
through tonight. Next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
Monday continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures then trend near to
below normal for the middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EDT Sunday...The surface ridge of high pressure
continues to dominate the region.  5860-5880 m 500mb heights and
925mb temps increasing to 21-23C support highs today warming into
the high 80s with low 90s in the Champlain and St Lawrence Valley.
Increased southerly flow will begin to enhance low level moisture
and so we should see a slight increase in dew points however that
will be mitigated in humidity levels by the increase in temps as
well. By mid morning the southerly flow will become will become
enhanced and we could see some forced channeling gusts of 18-23 mph
gusts in the Champlain Valley.  Should be a warm but pleasant last
weekend in June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Mid/upper level ridge across the
eastern CONUS will slowly breakdown as a series of short waves and
associated 5h trof approach the region. The first pre-frontal trof
and embedded 5h vort in the southwest flow aloft arrives by 12z
Saint Lawrence Valley and moves from west to east across our cwa
on Monday. Dynamics are weakening with this system and axis of
enhanced 850 to 500mb moisture is very narrow...resulting in a 1
to 3 hour window for mainly showers on Monday. Have noted SPC
place our northern NY in marginal outlook...but best instability
occurs after dynamics and ribbon of mid level moisture shifts to
the east of greatest instability and deep layer shear. Based on
limited instability and timing will mention showers with isolated
thunder on Monday...with highest pops/qpf across northern NY.
Thinking initial band of showers will enhance low level moisture
and result in greater instability parameter across Saint Lawrence
Valley after 18z Monday...but soundings are very dry and upstream
forcing is very weak. A mild night is expected Sunday Night with
developing southerly flow ahead of pre-frontal trough with
readings mainly in the 60s to near 70f Champlain Valley. Highs on
Monday afternoon in the 80s....with increasing surface dwpt values
from expected rain showers will produce some higher humidity
values. Another warm and muggy night is expected on monday with
lows mainly in the 60s to near 70f again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Still anticipating an active day on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms...with some
uncertainty on the degree of instability. Synoptic scale shows
strong mid/upper level trof across the northern Great Lakes
approaching the Saint Lawrence Valley by 12z Tuesday with a
surface cold front draped over northern NY. The forecast challenge
will be how much surface heating and instability can develop
before clouds and showers develop. Model progs show surface based
CAPE values between 700-1000 J/kg with most unstable values
associated with warmer surface temperatures/higher dwpts between
1000 and 1500 J/kg from the Dacks eastward. Given the available
upper level forcing...a ribbon of 700 to 500mb winds of 35 to 45
knots...creating deep layer 0 to 6 km shear values around 40
knots...some robust updrafts will support scattered stronger
thunderstorms. The best interaction of instability and shear looks
to occur over central and eastern VT...given expected position of
boundary and location of right rear quad of 75 knot jet at 250mb.
The primary focus would be gusty winds and small hail...if current
progged stability and shear profiles verify. Will continue to
mention likely to cat pops central and eastern cwa with scattered
convection...but not mention enhanced wording due to uncertainty
associated with instability. Still plenty of time to determine
areal coverage of clouds and associated impacts on surface heating
and instability along with timing of boundary.

Wednesday...mid/upper level trof axis swings across our region with
associated cool pocket aloft. This energy and leftover moisture will
produce additional scattered showers on Weds...with highest pops
across the mountains. Thermal profiles support slightly below normal
temperatures with readings mainly in the mid/upper 60s mountains to
mid/upper 70s warmer valleys with progged 850mb temps around 11c.

Thursday through Saturday...fast zonal flow aloft with general
mid/upper level trof will continue with weak short wave ridge by
Friday. This supports a dry forecast on Friday with near normal
temps. Latest trends show the potential for a few lingering leftover
showers on Thursday with trof. Another front along with energy aloft
is expected to impact our region on Friday night into Saturday with
additional showers. Plenty of uncertainty on timing and magnitude of
system...so will just mention chance pops at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 06Z Monday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. High
pressure remains in control and will keep generally mostly clear
skies. There will be some light convective debris clouds filtering
late over northern New York in the 14-16kft range. Winds
light/variable overnight gradually becoming southerly 5-10kts
Sunday morning.

Outlook 06Z Sunday through Thursday...

06Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to
MVFR/brief IFR as a cold front brings showers and t-storms. Couple
storms may become strong Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

00z Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Deal/MV




000
FXUS61 KALY 260745
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
345 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT...High pressure remains in control just to our
east, although some high level cirrus clouds courtesy of
convective debris from the upper Great Lakes will be moving
through today. Difficult to determine if the clouds will remain
rather thick or thin out as they move across our region. Due to
the upper level ridge axis in place, will expect clouds to not
inhibit solar heating. Some diurnal fair weather cu are also
expected to develop. Once again no convection expected due to
capped environment. It will be another very warm day, with most
areas reaching the mid to upper 80s for highs this afternoon.
Humidity will start to creep up with dewpoints approaching or
slightly exceeding 60. However, humidity levels remain relatively
low for late June.

Expecting a warm night across the area tonight as a southerly
flow persists ahead of a pre-frontal trough that will be
approaching from the eastern Great Lakes. Models in decent
agreement with any qpf remaining north and west of the area until
late, when a few showers or isolated thunder may move into the
western Adirondacks. Most of the area should remain dry through
sunrise Monday though.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The pre-frontal trough will gradually move eastward across the
area on Monday, although models indicating it will also weaken as
it approaches. The upper level ridge will get flattened out
though, so some mainly diurnal convection with scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible. Will keep pops in low chance range
due to weak forcing and limited upper level dynamics. Instability
looks to be rather limited with weak shear, so only general
thunderstorms expected. Low chances for showers and maybe a few
storms will continue Monday night as the weakening trough
basically stalls and becomes diffuse by Tuesday morning. It will
remain very warm with increasing humidity levels on Monday, with
relatively muggy conditions expected Monday night.

Tuesday looks to be the most active weather day of the period, as
a cold front will be gradually progressing eastward across the
area. An associated vigorous upper level trough will be in very
close proximity upstream, with cyclonic vorticity advection
resulting in greater large scale ascent along with low level
convergence along the cold front. Deep layer shear will be
increasing, but the main question in terms of potential severe
weather will be how much instability can develop. The cold front
will already be on our western doorstep Tuesday morning, so it is
unclear how much sunshine and resulting surface heating will
occur. Will mention mostly cloudy skies, but even just a few
breaks of sunshine could result in sufficient CAPE for some
stronger storms to develop. It will remain warm and somewhat humid
on Tuesday until the cold front pushes through Tuesday night.

Will continue to mention chance pops Tuesday night as the cold
front finally moves through. Chances for thunder will gradually
diminish during the evening, with just showers expected after
midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather is expected to continue on Wednesday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms as a wave of low pressure
lifts northeast along a cold front just to our east. Due to cloud
cover and precipitation it will be cooler than recent days with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s.

The period from Wednesday night through Friday night looks mainly
dry although there could be an isolated shower on Friday or Friday
night. A large ridge of high pressure will expand eastward from
the Ohio Valley Thursday morning and settle across the middle
Atlantic region on Friday. Expect lows Wednesday night to be in
the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on Thursday in the upper 60s
to lower 80s. Lows Thursday night will be in the 50s to around 60
with highs on Friday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Friday
night will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

The next chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region
will be on Saturday when a cold front drops southeastward from the
eastern Great Lakes Saturday morning and passes through the region
on Saturday afternoon. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s
to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR Conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the
end of the TAF period ending at 06Z Monday. The exception may be
some brief fog at KGFL and KPSF but expected to be too short lived
to place in TAFs at this time. Skies will generally be SKC
overnight with light and variable winds. On Sunday skies will
become SCT040 SCT250 with south winds up to 8 kts. The winds will
diminish again Sunday evening.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain anchored along the New England and Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight, continuing to provide sunshine and
very warm temperatures. Then a series of cold fronts will approach
and gradually move eastward across the region Monday through
Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then build in by midweek, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 40 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 70 and 90 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Monday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, persisting
through tonight. Winds on Monday will continue to be southerly and
increase to around 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260617
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
217 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North
Country through Sunday evening. Abundant sunshine, warm temperatures
in the mid 80s to low 90s and low humidity levels should be the rule.
Next chances for showers and thunderstorms is on Monday continuing
into Tuesday. Temperatures then trend near to below normal for the
middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 211 AM EDT Sunday...Current forecast is in good shape with
no changes needs. Clear skies across the North Country will slowly
give way to some convective debris clouds upstream. Temps should
continue to fall into the upper 50s to low 60s.

previous discussion...On Sunday...ridge of high pressure remains
in control with similar sensible weather conditions to today. The
only difference will be an increase in south winds (occasional
gusts to 20-25 mph in the Champlain Valley) and a slight uptick in
dewpoints (upper 50s to low 60s). 925 mb temperatures increase to
+21 to +23C which under mostly clear to filtered sun supports
highs into the 80s to low 90s, cooler along Lake Champlain. Still
generally comfortable perceived humidity levels with afternoon RH
values around 30%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Mid/upper level ridge across the
eastern CONUS will slowly breakdown as a series of short waves and
associated 5h trof approach the region. The first pre-frontal trof
and embedded 5h vort in the southwest flow aloft arrives by 12z
Saint Lawrence Valley and moves from west to east across our cwa
on Monday. Dynamics are weakening with this system and axis of
enhanced 850 to 500mb moisture is very narrow...resulting in a 1
to 3 hour window for mainly showers on Monday. Have noted SPC
place our northern NY in marginal outlook...but best instability
occurs after dynamics and ribbon of mid level moisture shifts to
the east of greatest instability and deep layer shear. Based on
limited instability and timing will mention showers with isolated
thunder on Monday...with highest pops/qpf across northern NY.
Thinking initial band of showers will enhance low level moisture
and result in greater instability parameter across Saint Lawrence
Valley after 18z Monday...but soundings are very dry and upstream
forcing is very weak. A mild night is expected Sunday Night with
developing southerly flow ahead of pre-frontal trough with
readings mainly in the 60s to near 70f Champlain Valley. Highs on
Monday afternoon in the 80s....with increasing surface dwpt values
from expected rain showers will produce some higher humidity
values. Another warm and muggy night is expected on monday with
lows mainly in the 60s to near 70f again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Still anticipating an active day on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms...with some
uncertainty on the degree of instability. Synoptic scale shows
strong mid/upper level trof across the northern Great Lakes
approaching the Saint Lawrence Valley by 12z Tuesday with a
surface cold front draped over northern NY. The forecast challenge
will be how much surface heating and instability can develop
before clouds and showers develop. Model progs show surface based
CAPE values between 700-1000 J/kg with most unstable values
associated with warmer surface temperatures/higher dwpts between
1000 and 1500 J/kg from the Dacks eastward. Given the available
upper level forcing...a ribbon of 700 to 500mb winds of 35 to 45
knots...creating deep layer 0 to 6 km shear values around 40
knots...some robust updrafts will support scattered stronger
thunderstorms. The best interaction of instability and shear looks
to occur over central and eastern VT...given expected position of
boundary and location of right rear quad of 75 knot jet at 250mb.
The primary focus would be gusty winds and small hail...if current
progged stability and shear profiles verify. Will continue to
mention likely to cat pops central and eastern cwa with scattered
convection...but not mention enhanced wording due to uncertainty
associated with instability. Still plenty of time to determine
areal coverage of clouds and associated impacts on surface heating
and instability along with timing of boundary.

Wednesday...mid/upper level trof axis swings across our region with
associated cool pocket aloft. This energy and leftover moisture will
produce additional scattered showers on Weds...with highest pops
across the mountains. Thermal profiles support slightly below normal
temperatures with readings mainly in the mid/upper 60s mountains to
mid/upper 70s warmer valleys with progged 850mb temps around 11c.

Thursday through Saturday...fast zonal flow aloft with general
mid/upper level trof will continue with weak short wave ridge by
Friday. This supports a dry forecast on Friday with near normal
temps. Latest trends show the potential for a few lingering leftover
showers on Thursday with trof. Another front along with energy aloft
is expected to impact our region on Friday night into Saturday with
additional showers. Plenty of uncertainty on timing and magnitude of
system...so will just mention chance pops at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 06Z Monday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. High
pressure remains in control and will keep generally mostly clear
skies. There will be some light convective debris clouds filtering
late over northern New York in the 14-16kft range. Winds
light/variable overnight gradually becoming southerly 5-10kts
Sunday morning.

Outlook 06Z Sunday through Thursday...

06Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to
MVFR/brief IFR as a cold front brings showers and t-storms. Couple
storms may become strong Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

00z Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Deal/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Deal/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260617
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
217 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North
Country through Sunday evening. Abundant sunshine, warm temperatures
in the mid 80s to low 90s and low humidity levels should be the rule.
Next chances for showers and thunderstorms is on Monday continuing
into Tuesday. Temperatures then trend near to below normal for the
middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 211 AM EDT Sunday...Current forecast is in good shape with
no changes needs. Clear skies across the North Country will slowly
give way to some convective debris clouds upstream. Temps should
continue to fall into the upper 50s to low 60s.

previous discussion...On Sunday...ridge of high pressure remains
in control with similar sensible weather conditions to today. The
only difference will be an increase in south winds (occasional
gusts to 20-25 mph in the Champlain Valley) and a slight uptick in
dewpoints (upper 50s to low 60s). 925 mb temperatures increase to
+21 to +23C which under mostly clear to filtered sun supports
highs into the 80s to low 90s, cooler along Lake Champlain. Still
generally comfortable perceived humidity levels with afternoon RH
values around 30%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Mid/upper level ridge across the
eastern CONUS will slowly breakdown as a series of short waves and
associated 5h trof approach the region. The first pre-frontal trof
and embedded 5h vort in the southwest flow aloft arrives by 12z
Saint Lawrence Valley and moves from west to east across our cwa
on Monday. Dynamics are weakening with this system and axis of
enhanced 850 to 500mb moisture is very narrow...resulting in a 1
to 3 hour window for mainly showers on Monday. Have noted SPC
place our northern NY in marginal outlook...but best instability
occurs after dynamics and ribbon of mid level moisture shifts to
the east of greatest instability and deep layer shear. Based on
limited instability and timing will mention showers with isolated
thunder on Monday...with highest pops/qpf across northern NY.
Thinking initial band of showers will enhance low level moisture
and result in greater instability parameter across Saint Lawrence
Valley after 18z Monday...but soundings are very dry and upstream
forcing is very weak. A mild night is expected Sunday Night with
developing southerly flow ahead of pre-frontal trough with
readings mainly in the 60s to near 70f Champlain Valley. Highs on
Monday afternoon in the 80s....with increasing surface dwpt values
from expected rain showers will produce some higher humidity
values. Another warm and muggy night is expected on monday with
lows mainly in the 60s to near 70f again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Still anticipating an active day on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms...with some
uncertainty on the degree of instability. Synoptic scale shows
strong mid/upper level trof across the northern Great Lakes
approaching the Saint Lawrence Valley by 12z Tuesday with a
surface cold front draped over northern NY. The forecast challenge
will be how much surface heating and instability can develop
before clouds and showers develop. Model progs show surface based
CAPE values between 700-1000 J/kg with most unstable values
associated with warmer surface temperatures/higher dwpts between
1000 and 1500 J/kg from the Dacks eastward. Given the available
upper level forcing...a ribbon of 700 to 500mb winds of 35 to 45
knots...creating deep layer 0 to 6 km shear values around 40
knots...some robust updrafts will support scattered stronger
thunderstorms. The best interaction of instability and shear looks
to occur over central and eastern VT...given expected position of
boundary and location of right rear quad of 75 knot jet at 250mb.
The primary focus would be gusty winds and small hail...if current
progged stability and shear profiles verify. Will continue to
mention likely to cat pops central and eastern cwa with scattered
convection...but not mention enhanced wording due to uncertainty
associated with instability. Still plenty of time to determine
areal coverage of clouds and associated impacts on surface heating
and instability along with timing of boundary.

Wednesday...mid/upper level trof axis swings across our region with
associated cool pocket aloft. This energy and leftover moisture will
produce additional scattered showers on Weds...with highest pops
across the mountains. Thermal profiles support slightly below normal
temperatures with readings mainly in the mid/upper 60s mountains to
mid/upper 70s warmer valleys with progged 850mb temps around 11c.

Thursday through Saturday...fast zonal flow aloft with general
mid/upper level trof will continue with weak short wave ridge by
Friday. This supports a dry forecast on Friday with near normal
temps. Latest trends show the potential for a few lingering leftover
showers on Thursday with trof. Another front along with energy aloft
is expected to impact our region on Friday night into Saturday with
additional showers. Plenty of uncertainty on timing and magnitude of
system...so will just mention chance pops at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 06Z Monday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. High
pressure remains in control and will keep generally mostly clear
skies. There will be some light convective debris clouds filtering
late over northern New York in the 14-16kft range. Winds
light/variable overnight gradually becoming southerly 5-10kts
Sunday morning.

Outlook 06Z Sunday through Thursday...

06Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to
MVFR/brief IFR as a cold front brings showers and t-storms. Couple
storms may become strong Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

00z Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Deal/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Deal/MV




000
FXUS61 KALY 260505
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
105 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Bermuda high pressure ridge along the Atlantic Seaboard will
remain in control of our weather into Monday with very warm summer
conditions. A series of cold fronts will cross the region late
Monday and Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will build east from the Ohio Valley with fair
weather to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1242 AM EDT...Temperatures have been slower to cool than
forecast, so raised min temps a few degrees especially in the
Hudson Valley where a southerly breeze has developed. High level
cirrus clouds will move through overnight, but still resulting in
mostly clear skies. Some fog could develop in favored locations,
but very patchy and not enough coverage to mention in forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds south and east of our region and low level
wind flow turns south. There will be gradually increasing surface
dew points and boundary layer temperatures through Monday. A pre
frontal trough is expected to set up Monday afternoon with some
scattered showers and thunderstorms...but instability and shear
are expected to be weak. There are also some indications that the
showers and storms could weaken as they move into eastern NY and
western New England.  Highs Sunday in the 80s to around
90...similar on Monday but maybe a degree or two cooler if there
is some late day cloud cover and scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

A stronger cold front and upper energy track into our region
Tuesday but again...instability and shear are not too impressive.
There may be enough instability and shear for some strong
thunderstorms but not wording into forecast until higher
confidence of stronger storms. Highs Tuesday in the 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term opens unsettled with a cold front slowly progressing
eastward across the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic Region Tue
through Wed.  This will continue the threat for scattered
showers...and thunderstorms with the boundaries slow passage and the
upper level trough axis remaining upstream over the eastern Great
Lakes Region...and the Ohio Valley.  The slow frontal movement is
supported by many of the GEFS...and the latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
GGEM.  Some of the thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall across
New England based some slightly elevated PWAT values.  Lows Tue
night will be in the 50s to lower 60s...and highs on Wed will likely
be surpressed a bit by the scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the mid 70s to around 80F in the valleys...and 60s to lower 70s over
the mountains and hills.

Wed night into Thu...The Northeast will remain under the influence
of cyclonic flow...but enough subsidence in the wake of the
front...and the upper trough axis should have the showers taper off
WED night...and a drier and more stable air mass builds in for Thu.
H850 temps will be in the +11C to +13C range which are near normal.
High pressure at the sfc will be building in from the Central Plains
and Midwest.  After lows mainly in the 50s...aside for some upper
40s over the southern Adirondacks...and eastern Catskills.  Highs
will be slightly below normal to normal for late June in the upper
70s to lower 80s in the valley locations...and upper 60s to mid 70s
over the higher terrain.

Thu night into Saturday...The nice weather looks to continue a
little longer based on the WPC guidance and medium range model
trends.  High pressure continues to ridge in from the lower OH
Valley and WV for the fair weather to persist in the first day of
July.  Temps will rise slightly into the lower to mid 80s in the
major valleys...and 70s to near 80F over the hills an mtns.  A cold
front and prefrontal sfc trough will be approaching from southeast
Canada and the eastern Great Lakes Region Fri night into Saturday
for the next bonafide chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR Conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the
end of the TAF period ending at 06Z Monday. The exception may be
some brief fog at KGFL and KPSF but expected to be too short lived
to place in TAFs at this time. Skies will generally be SKC
overnight with light and variable winds. On Sunday skies will
become SCT040 SCT250 with south winds up to 8 kts. The winds will
diminish again Sunday evening.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into Monday. The next
chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next week.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent on Sunday
afternoon and 40 to 60 percent Monday afternoon. Nighttime RH
values should be 80 to 100 percent.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday...and south at 15 mph or less Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder/JPV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...11/Snyder
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 260442
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1242 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Bermuda high pressure ridge along the Atlantic Seaboard will
remain in control of our weather into Monday with very warm summer
conditions. A series of cold fronts will cross the region late
Monday and Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will build east from the Ohio Valley with fair
weather to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1242 AM EDT...Temperatures have been slower to cool than
forecast, so raised min temps a few degrees especially in the
Hudson Valley where a southerly breeze has developed. High level
cirrus clouds will move through overnight, but still resulting in
mostly clear skies. Some fog could develop in favored locations,
but very patchy and not enough coverage to mention in forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds south and east of our region and low level
wind flow turns south. There will be gradually increasing surface
dew points and boundary layer temperatures through Monday. A pre
frontal trough is expected to set up Monday afternoon with some
scattered showers and thunderstorms...but instability and shear
are expected to be weak. There are also some indications that the
showers and storms could weaken as they move into eastern NY and
western New England.  Highs Sunday in the 80s to around
90...similar on Monday but maybe a degree or two cooler if there
is some late day cloud cover and scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

A stronger cold front and upper energy track into our region
Tuesday but again...instability and shear are not too impressive.
There may be enough instability and shear for some strong
thunderstorms but not wording into forecast until higher
confidence of stronger storms. Highs Tuesday in the 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term opens unsettled with a cold front slowly progressing
eastward across the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic Region Tue
through Wed.  This will continue the threat for scattered
showers...and thunderstorms with the boundaries slow passage and the
upper level trough axis remaining upstream over the eastern Great
Lakes Region...and the Ohio Valley.  The slow frontal movement is
supported by many of the GEFS...and the latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
GGEM.  Some of the thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall across
New England based some slightly elevated PWAT values.  Lows Tue
night will be in the 50s to lower 60s...and highs on Wed will likely
be surpressed a bit by the scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the mid 70s to around 80F in the valleys...and 60s to lower 70s over
the mountains and hills.

Wed night into Thu...The Northeast will remain under the influence
of cyclonic flow...but enough subsidence in the wake of the
front...and the upper trough axis should have the showers taper off
WED night...and a drier and more stable air mass builds in for Thu.
H850 temps will be in the +11C to +13C range which are near normal.
High pressure at the sfc will be building in from the Central Plains
and Midwest.  After lows mainly in the 50s...aside for some upper
40s over the southern Adirondacks...and eastern Catskills.  Highs
will be slightly below normal to normal for late June in the upper
70s to lower 80s in the valley locations...and upper 60s to mid 70s
over the higher terrain.

Thu night into Saturday...The nice weather looks to continue a
little longer based on the WPC guidance and medium range model
trends.  High pressure continues to ridge in from the lower OH
Valley and WV for the fair weather to persist in the first day of
July.  Temps will rise slightly into the lower to mid 80s in the
major valleys...and 70s to near 80F over the hills an mtns.  A cold
front and prefrontal sfc trough will be approaching from southeast
Canada and the eastern Great Lakes Region Fri night into Saturday
for the next bonafide chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will persist at all levels of the atmosphere across
the region into Monday. VFR conditions will mainly dominate the
next 24 hrs. There may be some patchy MVFR/IFR mist or fog that
may briefly form between 08Z-13Z in deep valleys and normally fog
prone locales tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into Monday. The next
chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next week.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent on Sunday
afternoon and 40 to 60 percent Monday afternoon. Nighttime RH
values should be 80 to 100 percent.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday...and south at 15 mph or less Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder/JPV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Snyder/Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260227
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1027 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North
Country through Sunday evening. Abundant sunshine, warm temperatures
in the mid 80s to low 90s and low humidity levels should be the rule.
Next chances for showers and thunderstorms is on Monday continuing
into Tuesday. Temperatures then trend near to below normal for the
middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY EVENING/...
As of 1027 PM EDT Saturday...No need for changes as going forecast
in good shape. Matched grids to current observations...but this
does not affect expected low temperatures tonight. Still seeing
convective debris clouds upstream moving into southwest Quebec
Province and these will be moving over the area after midnight
tonight.

On Sunday...ridge of high pressure remains in control with similar
sensible weather conditions to today. The only difference will be
an increase in south winds (occasional gusts to 20-25 mph in the
Champlain Valley) and a slight uptick in dewpoints (upper 50s to
low 60s). 925 mb temperatures increase to +21 to +23C which under
mostly clear to filtered sun supports highs into the 80s to low
90s, cooler along Lake Champlain. Still generally comfortable
perceived humidity levels with afternoon RH values around 30%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Mid/upper level ridge across the
eastern CONUS will slowly breakdown as a series of short waves and
associated 5h trof approach the region. The first pre-frontal trof
and embedded 5h vort in the southwest flow aloft arrives by 12z
Saint Lawrence Valley and moves from west to east across our cwa
on Monday. Dynamics are weakening with this system and axis of
enhanced 850 to 500mb moisture is very narrow...resulting in a 1
to 3 hour window for mainly showers on Monday. Have noted SPC
place our northern NY in marginal outlook...but best instability
occurs after dynamics and ribbon of mid level moisture shifts to
the east of greatest instability and deep layer shear. Based on
limited instability and timing will mention showers with isolated
thunder on Monday...with highest pops/qpf across northern NY.
Thinking initial band of showers will enhance low level moisture
and result in greater instability parameter across Saint Lawrence
Valley after 18z Monday...but soundings are very dry and upstream
forcing is very weak. A mild night is expected Sunday Night with
developing southerly flow ahead of pre-frontal trough with
readings mainly in the 60s to near 70f Champlain Valley. Highs on
Monday afternoon in the 80s....with increasing surface dwpt values
from expected rain showers will produce some higher humidity
values. Another warm and muggy night is expected on monday with
lows mainly in the 60s to near 70f again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Still anticipating an active day on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms...with some
uncertainty on the degree of instability. Synoptic scale shows
strong mid/upper level trof across the northern Great Lakes
approaching the Saint Lawrence Valley by 12z Tuesday with a
surface cold front draped over northern NY. The forecast challenge
will be how much surface heating and instability can develop
before clouds and showers develop. Model progs show surface based
CAPE values between 700-1000 J/kg with most unstable values
associated with warmer surface temperatures/higher dwpts between
1000 and 1500 J/kg from the Dacks eastward. Given the available
upper level forcing...a ribbon of 700 to 500mb winds of 35 to 45
knots...creating deep layer 0 to 6 km shear values around 40
knots...some robust updrafts will support scattered stronger
thunderstorms. The best interaction of instability and shear looks
to occur over central and eastern VT...given expected position of
boundary and location of right rear quad of 75 knot jet at 250mb.
The primary focus would be gusty winds and small hail...if current
progged stability and shear profiles verify. Will continue to
mention likely to cat pops central and eastern cwa with scattered
convection...but not mention enhanced wording due to uncertainty
associated with instability. Still plenty of time to determine
areal coverage of clouds and associated impacts on surface heating
and instability along with timing of boundary.

Wednesday...mid/upper level trof axis swings across our region with
associated cool pocket aloft. This energy and leftover moisture will
produce additional scattered showers on Weds...with highest pops
across the mountains. Thermal profiles support slightly below normal
temperatures with readings mainly in the mid/upper 60s mountains to
mid/upper 70s warmer valleys with progged 850mb temps around 11c.

Thursday through Saturday...fast zonal flow aloft with general
mid/upper level trof will continue with weak short wave ridge by
Friday. This supports a dry forecast on Friday with near normal
temps. Latest trends show the potential for a few lingering leftover
showers on Thursday with trof. Another front along with energy aloft
is expected to impact our region on Friday night into Saturday with
additional showers. Plenty of uncertainty on timing and magnitude of
system...so will just mention chance pops at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 00Z Monday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. High
pressure remains in control producing a few cirrus clouds through
the period. Winds light/variable and largely influenced by
terrain effects through evening. By Sunday midday, should see
more of a southerly component to the winds which will then
increase to 6-9 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts Sunday
afternoon.

Outlook 18Z Sunday through Thursday...

00Z Monday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/brief
IFR as a cold front brings showers and t-storms. Couple storms may
become strong Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

00z Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Loconto/MV




000
FXUS61 KALY 260112
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
912 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Bermuda high pressure ridge along the Atlantic Seaboard will
remain in control of our weather into Monday with very warm summer
conditions. A series of cold fronts will cross the region late
Monday and Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will build east from the Ohio Valley with fair
weather to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
At 645pm...Diurnal cu are dissipating and region is under high
pressure at all levels of the atmosphere. Skies will be clear with
light winds for the short summer solstice week night. Some patchy
fog could develop but very patchy and not enough coverage to out
in forecast. Light winds and clear sky will help temperatures to
fall into the 50s to near 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds south and east of our region and low level
wind flow turns south. There will be gradually increasing surface
dew points and boundary layer temperatures through Monday. A pre
frontal trough is expected to set up Monday afternoon with some
scattered showers and thunderstorms...but instability and shear
are expected to be weak. There are also some indications that the
showers and storms could weaken as they move into eastern NY and
western New England.  Highs Sunday in the 80s to around
90...similar on Monday but maybe a degree or two cooler if there
is some late day cloud cover and scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

A stronger cold front and upper energy track into our region
Tuesday but again...instability and shear are not too impressive.
There may be enough instability and shear for some strong
thunderstorms but not wording into forecast until higher
confidence of stronger storms. Highs Tuesday in the 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term opens unsettled with a cold front slowly progressing
eastward across the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic Region Tue
through Wed.  This will continue the threat for scattered
showers...and thunderstorms with the boundaries slow passage and the
upper level trough axis remaining upstream over the eastern Great
Lakes Region...and the Ohio Valley.  The slow frontal movement is
supported by many of the GEFS...and the latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
GGEM.  Some of the thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall across
New England based some slightly elevated PWAT values.  Lows Tue
night will be in the 50s to lower 60s...and highs on Wed will likely
be surpressed a bit by the scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the mid 70s to around 80F in the valleys...and 60s to lower 70s over
the mountains and hills.

Wed night into Thu...The Northeast will remain under the influence
of cyclonic flow...but enough subsidence in the wake of the
front...and the upper trough axis should have the showers taper off
WED night...and a drier and more stable air mass builds in for Thu.
H850 temps will be in the +11C to +13C range which are near normal.
High pressure at the sfc will be building in from the Central Plains
and Midwest.  After lows mainly in the 50s...aside for some upper
40s over the southern Adirondacks...and eastern Catskills.  Highs
will be slightly below normal to normal for late June in the upper
70s to lower 80s in the valley locations...and upper 60s to mid 70s
over the higher terrain.

Thu night into Saturday...The nice weather looks to continue a
little longer based on the WPC guidance and medium range model
trends.  High pressure continues to ridge in from the lower OH
Valley and WV for the fair weather to persist in the first day of
July.  Temps will rise slightly into the lower to mid 80s in the
major valleys...and 70s to near 80F over the hills an mtns.  A cold
front and prefrontal sfc trough will be approaching from southeast
Canada and the eastern Great Lakes Region Fri night into Saturday
for the next bonafide chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will persist at all levels of the atmosphere across
the region into Monday. VFR conditions will mainly dominate the
next 24 hrs. There may be some patchy MVFR/IFR mist or fog that
may briefly form between 08Z-13Z in deep valleys and normally fog
prone locales tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into Monday. The next
chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next week.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent on Sunday
afternoon and 40 to 60 percent Monday afternoon. Nighttime RH
values should be 80 to 100 percent.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday...and south at 15 mph or less Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Snyder/Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 252339
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
739 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North
Country through Sunday evening. Abundant sunshine, warm
temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s and low humidity levels
should be the rule. Next chances for showers and thunderstorms is
on Monday continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures then trend near to
below normal for the middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 738 PM EDT Saturday...Going forecast in great shape and no
real changes needed at this time. Shallow cumulus over the
mountains continues to decrease in areal coverage and later
tonight it looks like we could see some mid and high level
convective debris clouds from the Upper Midwest roll into our
area, which going forecast has covered well. Otherwise...temperatures
should plummet pretty quickly everywhere but then start to level
off after midnight especially in the Champlain and St. Lawrence
Valley areas. Thus, I`d expect to see a significant variation in
low temperatures from the mid/upper 40s in the Adirondacks to the
lower to mid 60s in the Champlain Valley, with 50s pretty common
east of the Greens. All are about 1-2 degrees warmer than 12z MOS
and recent GFS LAMP guidance.

On Sunday...ridge of high pressure remains in control with
similar sensible weather conditions to today. The only difference
will be an increase in south winds (occasional gusts to 20-25 mph
in the Champlain Valley) and a slight uptick in dewpoints (upper
50s to low 60s). 925 mb temperatures increase to +21 to +23C which
under mostly clear to filtered sun supports highs into the 80s to
low 90s, cooler along Lake Champlain. Still generally comfortable
perceived humidity levels with afternoon RH values around 30%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Mid/upper level ridge across the
eastern CONUS will slowly breakdown as a series of short waves and
associated 5h trof approach the region. The first pre-frontal trof
and embedded 5h vort in the southwest flow aloft arrives by 12z
Saint Lawrence Valley and moves from west to east across our cwa
on Monday. Dynamics are weakening with this system and axis of
enhanced 850 to 500mb moisture is very narrow...resulting in a 1
to 3 hour window for mainly showers on Monday. Have noted SPC
place our northern NY in marginal outlook...but best instability
occurs after dynamics and ribbon of mid level moisture shifts to
the east of greatest instability and deep layer shear. Based on
limited instability and timing will mention showers with isolated
thunder on Monday...with highest pops/qpf across northern NY.
Thinking initial band of showers will enhance low level moisture
and result in greater instability parameter across Saint Lawrence
Valley after 18z Monday...but soundings are very dry and upstream
forcing is very weak. A mild night is expected Sunday Night with
developing southerly flow ahead of pre-frontal trough with
readings mainly in the 60s to near 70f Champlain Valley. Highs on
Monday afternoon in the 80s....with increasing surface dwpt values
from expected rain showers will produce some higher humidity
values. Another warm and muggy night is expected on monday with
lows mainly in the 60s to near 70f again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Still anticipating an active day on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms...with some
uncertainty on the degree of instability. Synoptic scale shows
strong mid/upper level trof across the northern Great Lakes
approaching the Saint Lawrence Valley by 12z Tuesday with a
surface cold front draped over northern NY. The forecast challenge
will be how much surface heating and instability can develop
before clouds and showers develop. Model progs show surface based
CAPE values between 700-1000 J/kg with most unstable values
associated with warmer surface temperatures/higher dwpts between
1000 and 1500 J/kg from the Dacks eastward. Given the available
upper level forcing...a ribbon of 700 to 500mb winds of 35 to 45
knots...creating deep layer 0 to 6 km shear values around 40
knots...some robust updrafts will support scattered stronger
thunderstorms. The best interaction of instability and shear looks
to occur over central and eastern VT...given expected position of
boundary and location of right rear quad of 75 knot jet at 250mb.
The primary focus would be gusty winds and small hail...if current
progged stability and shear profiles verify. Will continue to
mention likely to cat pops central and eastern cwa with scattered
convection...but not mention enhanced wording due to uncertainty
associated with instability. Still plenty of time to determine
areal coverage of clouds and associated impacts on surface heating
and instability along with timing of boundary.

Wednesday...mid/upper level trof axis swings across our region with
associated cool pocket aloft. This energy and leftover moisture will
produce additional scattered showers on Weds...with highest pops
across the mountains. Thermal profiles support slightly below normal
temperatures with readings mainly in the mid/upper 60s mountains to
mid/upper 70s warmer valleys with progged 850mb temps around 11c.

Thursday through Saturday...fast zonal flow aloft with general
mid/upper level trof will continue with weak short wave ridge by
Friday. This supports a dry forecast on Friday with near normal
temps. Latest trends show the potential for a few lingering leftover
showers on Thursday with trof. Another front along with energy aloft
is expected to impact our region on Friday night into Saturday with
additional showers. Plenty of uncertainty on timing and magnitude of
system...so will just mention chance pops at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 00Z Monday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. High
pressure remains in control producing a few cirrus clouds through
the period. Winds light/variable and largely influenced by
terrain effects through evening. By Sunday midday, should see
more of a southerly component to the winds which will then
increase to 6-9 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts Sunday
afternoon.

Outlook 18Z Sunday through Thursday...

00Z Monday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/brief
IFR as a cold front brings showers and t-storms. Couple storms may
become strong Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

00z Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Loconto/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 252325
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
725 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North
Country through Sunday evening. Abundant sunshine, warm
temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s and low humidity levels
should be the rule. Next chances for showers and thunderstorms is
on Monday continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures then trend near to
below normal for the middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...The North Country remains in mid-
level northwesterly flow aloft between a building 500 mb ridge
axis over the Great Lakes and troughing located over the southern
New England coast. A ridge of high pressure will continue to be in
place, support generally clear skies. However some high clouds
well to our northwest over the northern Great Lakes should advect
into our area later this evening. In addition, initially light
surface winds then become more of a light south wind particularly
after midnight. Temps should plummet pretty quickly everywhere but
then start to level off after midnight especially in the Champlain
and St. Lawrence Valley areas. Thus, I`d expect to see a
significant variation in low temperatures from the mid/upper 40s
in the Adirondacks to the lower to mid 60s in the Champlain
Valley, with 50s pretty common east of the Greens. All are about
1-2 degrees warmer than 12z MOS and recent GFS LAMP guidance.

Ridge of high pressure remains in control with similar sensible
weather conditions to today. The only difference will be an
increase in south winds (occasional gusts to 20-25 mph in the
Champlain Valley) and a slight uptick in dewpoints (upper 50s to
low 60s). 925 mb temperatures increase to +21 to +23C which under
mostly clear to filtered sun supports highs into the 80s to low
90s, cooler along Lake Champlain. Still generally comfortable
perceived humidity levels with afternoon RH values around 30%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Mid/upper level ridge across the
eastern CONUS will slowly breakdown as a series of short waves and
associated 5h trof approach the region. The first pre-frontal trof
and embedded 5h vort in the southwest flow aloft arrives by 12z
Saint Lawrence Valley and moves from west to east across our cwa
on Monday. Dynamics are weakening with this system and axis of
enhanced 850 to 500mb moisture is very narrow...resulting in a 1
to 3 hour window for mainly showers on Monday. Have noted SPC
place our northern NY in marginal outlook...but best instability
occurs after dynamics and ribbon of mid level moisture shifts to
the east of greatest instability and deep layer shear. Based on
limited instability and timing will mention showers with isolated
thunder on Monday...with highest pops/qpf across northern NY.
Thinking initial band of showers will enhance low level moisture
and result in greater instability parameter across Saint Lawrence
Valley after 18z Monday...but soundings are very dry and upstream
forcing is very weak. A mild night is expected Sunday Night with
developing southerly flow ahead of pre-frontal trough with
readings mainly in the 60s to near 70f Champlain Valley. Highs on
Monday afternoon in the 80s....with increasing surface dwpt values
from expected rain showers will produce some higher humidity
values. Another warm and muggy night is expected on monday with
lows mainly in the 60s to near 70f again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Still anticipating an active day on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms...with some
uncertainty on the degree of instability. Synoptic scale shows
strong mid/upper level trof across the northern Great Lakes
approaching the Saint Lawrence Valley by 12z Tuesday with a
surface cold front draped over northern NY. The forecast challenge
will be how much surface heating and instability can develop
before clouds and showers develop. Model progs show surface based
CAPE values between 700-1000 J/kg with most unstable values
associated with warmer surface temperatures/higher dwpts between
1000 and 1500 J/kg from the Dacks eastward. Given the available
upper level forcing...a ribbon of 700 to 500mb winds of 35 to 45
knots...creating deep layer 0 to 6 km shear values around 40
knots...some robust updrafts will support scattered stronger
thunderstorms. The best interaction of instability and shear looks
to occur over central and eastern VT...given expected position of
boundary and location of right rear quad of 75 knot jet at 250mb.
The primary focus would be gusty winds and small hail...if current
progged stability and shear profiles verify. Will continue to
mention likely to cat pops central and eastern cwa with scattered
convection...but not mention enhanced wording due to uncertainty
associated with instability. Still plenty of time to determine
areal coverage of clouds and associated impacts on surface heating
and instability along with timing of boundary.

Wednesday...mid/upper level trof axis swings across our region with
associated cool pocket aloft. This energy and leftover moisture will
produce additional scattered showers on Weds...with highest pops
across the mountains. Thermal profiles support slightly below normal
temperatures with readings mainly in the mid/upper 60s mountains to
mid/upper 70s warmer valleys with progged 850mb temps around 11c.

Thursday through Saturday...fast zonal flow aloft with general
mid/upper level trof will continue with weak short wave ridge by
Friday. This supports a dry forecast on Friday with near normal
temps. Latest trends show the potential for a few lingering leftover
showers on Thursday with trof. Another front along with energy aloft
is expected to impact our region on Friday night into Saturday with
additional showers. Plenty of uncertainty on timing and magnitude of
system...so will just mention chance pops at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 00Z Monday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. High
pressure remains in control producing a few cirrus clouds through
the period. Winds light/variable and largely influenced by
terrain effects through evening. By Sunday midday, should see
more of a southerly component to the winds which will then
increase to 6-9 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts Sunday
afternoon.

Outlook 18Z Sunday through Thursday...

00Z Monday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/brief
IFR as a cold front brings showers and t-storms. Couple storms may
become strong Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

00z Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Loconto/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 252325
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
725 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North
Country through Sunday evening. Abundant sunshine, warm
temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s and low humidity levels
should be the rule. Next chances for showers and thunderstorms is
on Monday continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures then trend near to
below normal for the middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...The North Country remains in mid-
level northwesterly flow aloft between a building 500 mb ridge
axis over the Great Lakes and troughing located over the southern
New England coast. A ridge of high pressure will continue to be in
place, support generally clear skies. However some high clouds
well to our northwest over the northern Great Lakes should advect
into our area later this evening. In addition, initially light
surface winds then become more of a light south wind particularly
after midnight. Temps should plummet pretty quickly everywhere but
then start to level off after midnight especially in the Champlain
and St. Lawrence Valley areas. Thus, I`d expect to see a
significant variation in low temperatures from the mid/upper 40s
in the Adirondacks to the lower to mid 60s in the Champlain
Valley, with 50s pretty common east of the Greens. All are about
1-2 degrees warmer than 12z MOS and recent GFS LAMP guidance.

Ridge of high pressure remains in control with similar sensible
weather conditions to today. The only difference will be an
increase in south winds (occasional gusts to 20-25 mph in the
Champlain Valley) and a slight uptick in dewpoints (upper 50s to
low 60s). 925 mb temperatures increase to +21 to +23C which under
mostly clear to filtered sun supports highs into the 80s to low
90s, cooler along Lake Champlain. Still generally comfortable
perceived humidity levels with afternoon RH values around 30%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Mid/upper level ridge across the
eastern CONUS will slowly breakdown as a series of short waves and
associated 5h trof approach the region. The first pre-frontal trof
and embedded 5h vort in the southwest flow aloft arrives by 12z
Saint Lawrence Valley and moves from west to east across our cwa
on Monday. Dynamics are weakening with this system and axis of
enhanced 850 to 500mb moisture is very narrow...resulting in a 1
to 3 hour window for mainly showers on Monday. Have noted SPC
place our northern NY in marginal outlook...but best instability
occurs after dynamics and ribbon of mid level moisture shifts to
the east of greatest instability and deep layer shear. Based on
limited instability and timing will mention showers with isolated
thunder on Monday...with highest pops/qpf across northern NY.
Thinking initial band of showers will enhance low level moisture
and result in greater instability parameter across Saint Lawrence
Valley after 18z Monday...but soundings are very dry and upstream
forcing is very weak. A mild night is expected Sunday Night with
developing southerly flow ahead of pre-frontal trough with
readings mainly in the 60s to near 70f Champlain Valley. Highs on
Monday afternoon in the 80s....with increasing surface dwpt values
from expected rain showers will produce some higher humidity
values. Another warm and muggy night is expected on monday with
lows mainly in the 60s to near 70f again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Still anticipating an active day on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms...with some
uncertainty on the degree of instability. Synoptic scale shows
strong mid/upper level trof across the northern Great Lakes
approaching the Saint Lawrence Valley by 12z Tuesday with a
surface cold front draped over northern NY. The forecast challenge
will be how much surface heating and instability can develop
before clouds and showers develop. Model progs show surface based
CAPE values between 700-1000 J/kg with most unstable values
associated with warmer surface temperatures/higher dwpts between
1000 and 1500 J/kg from the Dacks eastward. Given the available
upper level forcing...a ribbon of 700 to 500mb winds of 35 to 45
knots...creating deep layer 0 to 6 km shear values around 40
knots...some robust updrafts will support scattered stronger
thunderstorms. The best interaction of instability and shear looks
to occur over central and eastern VT...given expected position of
boundary and location of right rear quad of 75 knot jet at 250mb.
The primary focus would be gusty winds and small hail...if current
progged stability and shear profiles verify. Will continue to
mention likely to cat pops central and eastern cwa with scattered
convection...but not mention enhanced wording due to uncertainty
associated with instability. Still plenty of time to determine
areal coverage of clouds and associated impacts on surface heating
and instability along with timing of boundary.

Wednesday...mid/upper level trof axis swings across our region with
associated cool pocket aloft. This energy and leftover moisture will
produce additional scattered showers on Weds...with highest pops
across the mountains. Thermal profiles support slightly below normal
temperatures with readings mainly in the mid/upper 60s mountains to
mid/upper 70s warmer valleys with progged 850mb temps around 11c.

Thursday through Saturday...fast zonal flow aloft with general
mid/upper level trof will continue with weak short wave ridge by
Friday. This supports a dry forecast on Friday with near normal
temps. Latest trends show the potential for a few lingering leftover
showers on Thursday with trof. Another front along with energy aloft
is expected to impact our region on Friday night into Saturday with
additional showers. Plenty of uncertainty on timing and magnitude of
system...so will just mention chance pops at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 00Z Monday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. High
pressure remains in control producing a few cirrus clouds through
the period. Winds light/variable and largely influenced by
terrain effects through evening. By Sunday midday, should see
more of a southerly component to the winds which will then
increase to 6-9 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts Sunday
afternoon.

Outlook 18Z Sunday through Thursday...

00Z Monday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/brief
IFR as a cold front brings showers and t-storms. Couple storms may
become strong Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

00z Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Loconto/MV




000
FXUS61 KALY 252307
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
707 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Bermuda high pressure ridge along the Atlantic Seaboard will
remain in control of our weather into Monday with very warm summer
conditions. A series of cold fronts will cross the region late
Monday and Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will build east from the Ohio Valley with fair
weather to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
At 645pm...Diurnal cu are dissipating and region is under high
pressure at all levels of the atmosphere. Skies will be clear with
light winds for the short summer solstice week night. Some patchy
fog could develop but very patchy and not enough coverage to out
in forecast. Light winds and clear sky will help temperatures to
fall into the 50s to near 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds south and east of our region and low level
wind flow turns south. There will be gradually increasing surface
dew points and boundary layer temperatures through Monday. A pre
frontal trough is expected to set up Monday afternoon with some
scattered showers and thunderstorms...but instability and shear
are expected to be weak. There are also some indications that the
showers and storms could weaken as they move into eastern NY and
western New England.  Highs Sunday in the 80s to around
90...similar on Monday but maybe a degree or two cooler if there
is some late day cloud cover and scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

A stronger cold front and upper energy track into our region
Tuesday but again...instability and shear are not too impressive.
There may be enough instability and shear for some strong
thunderstorms but not wording into forecast until higher
confidence of stronger storms. Highs Tuesday in the 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term opens unsettled with a cold front slowly progressing
eastward across the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic Region Tue
through Wed.  This will continue the threat for scattered
showers...and thunderstorms with the boundaries slow passage and the
upper level trough axis remaining upstream over the eastern Great
Lakes Region...and the Ohio Valley.  The slow frontal movement is
supported by many of the GEFS...and the latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
GGEM.  Some of the thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall across
New England based some slightly elevated PWAT values.  Lows Tue
night will be in the 50s to lower 60s...and highs on Wed will likely
be surpressed a bit by the scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the mid 70s to around 80F in the valleys...and 60s to lower 70s over
the mountains and hills.

Wed night into Thu...The Northeast will remain under the influence
of cyclonic flow...but enough subsidence in the wake of the
front...and the upper trough axis should have the showers taper off
WED night...and a drier and more stable air mass builds in for Thu.
H850 temps will be in the +11C to +13C range which are near normal.
High pressure at the sfc will be building in from the Central Plains
and Midwest.  After lows mainly in the 50s...aside for some upper
40s over the southern Adirondacks...and eastern Catskills.  Highs
will be slightly below normal to normal for late June in the upper
70s to lower 80s in the valley locations...and upper 60s to mid 70s
over the higher terrain.

Thu night into Saturday...The nice weather looks to continue a
little longer based on the WPC guidance and medium range model
trends.  High pressure continues to ridge in from the lower OH
Valley and WV for the fair weather to persist in the first day of
July.  Temps will rise slightly into the lower to mid 80s in the
major valleys...and 70s to near 80F over the hills an mtns.  A cold
front and prefrontal sfc trough will be approaching from southeast
Canada and the eastern Great Lakes Region Fri night into Saturday
for the next bonafide chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be over New York and New England this afternoon
and slowly slide offshore overnight into tomorrow.

VFR conditions will mainly dominate the next 24 hrs ending
18Z/SUN for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. The exception is for some patchy
MVFR/IFR mist or fog that may briefly form between 08Z-13Z at
KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. We have forecasted a brief window of MVFR mist at
KGFL/KPOU...and have a small window from 09Z-13Z for IFR
radiational mist/fog at KPSF. The mist/fog should burn off quickly
due to subsidence and strong solar heating.

A few cumulus and few-sct cirrus will be around this afternoon
into early this evening...and the cirrus will persist tomorrow
morning.

The winds will be light from the south to southeast at 5 kts or
less prior to 00Z/SUN...and then will be calm overnight. They will
be light and variable in direction at 5 kts or less late tomorrow
morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into Monday. The next
chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next week.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent on Sunday
afternoon and 40 to 60 percent Monday afternoon. Nighttime RH
values should be 80 to 100 percent.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday...and south at 15 mph or less Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 252307
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
707 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Bermuda high pressure ridge along the Atlantic Seaboard will
remain in control of our weather into Monday with very warm summer
conditions. A series of cold fronts will cross the region late
Monday and Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will build east from the Ohio Valley with fair
weather to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
At 645pm...Diurnal cu are dissipating and region is under high
pressure at all levels of the atmosphere. Skies will be clear with
light winds for the short summer solstice week night. Some patchy
fog could develop but very patchy and not enough coverage to out
in forecast. Light winds and clear sky will help temperatures to
fall into the 50s to near 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds south and east of our region and low level
wind flow turns south. There will be gradually increasing surface
dew points and boundary layer temperatures through Monday. A pre
frontal trough is expected to set up Monday afternoon with some
scattered showers and thunderstorms...but instability and shear
are expected to be weak. There are also some indications that the
showers and storms could weaken as they move into eastern NY and
western New England.  Highs Sunday in the 80s to around
90...similar on Monday but maybe a degree or two cooler if there
is some late day cloud cover and scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

A stronger cold front and upper energy track into our region
Tuesday but again...instability and shear are not too impressive.
There may be enough instability and shear for some strong
thunderstorms but not wording into forecast until higher
confidence of stronger storms. Highs Tuesday in the 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term opens unsettled with a cold front slowly progressing
eastward across the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic Region Tue
through Wed.  This will continue the threat for scattered
showers...and thunderstorms with the boundaries slow passage and the
upper level trough axis remaining upstream over the eastern Great
Lakes Region...and the Ohio Valley.  The slow frontal movement is
supported by many of the GEFS...and the latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
GGEM.  Some of the thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall across
New England based some slightly elevated PWAT values.  Lows Tue
night will be in the 50s to lower 60s...and highs on Wed will likely
be surpressed a bit by the scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the mid 70s to around 80F in the valleys...and 60s to lower 70s over
the mountains and hills.

Wed night into Thu...The Northeast will remain under the influence
of cyclonic flow...but enough subsidence in the wake of the
front...and the upper trough axis should have the showers taper off
WED night...and a drier and more stable air mass builds in for Thu.
H850 temps will be in the +11C to +13C range which are near normal.
High pressure at the sfc will be building in from the Central Plains
and Midwest.  After lows mainly in the 50s...aside for some upper
40s over the southern Adirondacks...and eastern Catskills.  Highs
will be slightly below normal to normal for late June in the upper
70s to lower 80s in the valley locations...and upper 60s to mid 70s
over the higher terrain.

Thu night into Saturday...The nice weather looks to continue a
little longer based on the WPC guidance and medium range model
trends.  High pressure continues to ridge in from the lower OH
Valley and WV for the fair weather to persist in the first day of
July.  Temps will rise slightly into the lower to mid 80s in the
major valleys...and 70s to near 80F over the hills an mtns.  A cold
front and prefrontal sfc trough will be approaching from southeast
Canada and the eastern Great Lakes Region Fri night into Saturday
for the next bonafide chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be over New York and New England this afternoon
and slowly slide offshore overnight into tomorrow.

VFR conditions will mainly dominate the next 24 hrs ending
18Z/SUN for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. The exception is for some patchy
MVFR/IFR mist or fog that may briefly form between 08Z-13Z at
KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. We have forecasted a brief window of MVFR mist at
KGFL/KPOU...and have a small window from 09Z-13Z for IFR
radiational mist/fog at KPSF. The mist/fog should burn off quickly
due to subsidence and strong solar heating.

A few cumulus and few-sct cirrus will be around this afternoon
into early this evening...and the cirrus will persist tomorrow
morning.

The winds will be light from the south to southeast at 5 kts or
less prior to 00Z/SUN...and then will be calm overnight. They will
be light and variable in direction at 5 kts or less late tomorrow
morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into Monday. The next
chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next week.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent on Sunday
afternoon and 40 to 60 percent Monday afternoon. Nighttime RH
values should be 80 to 100 percent.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday...and south at 15 mph or less Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 252024
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
424 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into Monday. The next
chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
High pressure controlling the weather with a clear sky. Some
patchy fog could develop but very patchy and not enough coverage
to out in forecast. Light winds and clear sky will help
temperatures to fall into the 50s to near 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds south and east of our region and low level
wind flow turns south. There will be gradually increasing surface
dew points and boundary layer temperatures through Monday. A pre
frontal trough is expected to set up Monday afternoon with some
scattered showers and thunderstorms...but instability and shear
are expected to be weak. There are also some indications that the
showers and storms could weaken as they move into eastern NY and
western New England.  Highs Sunday in the 80s to around
90...similar on Monday but maybe a degree or two cooler if there
is some late day cloud cover and scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

A stronger cold front and upper energy track into our region
Tuesday but again...instability and shear are not too impressive.
There may be enough instability and shear for some strong
thunderstorms but not wording into forecast until higher
confidence of stronger storms. Highs Tuesday in the 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term opens unsettled with a cold front slowly progressing
eastward across the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic Region Tue
through Wed.  This will continue the threat for scattered
showers...and thunderstorms with the boundaries slow passage and the
upper level trough axis remaining upstream over the eastern Great
Lakes Region...and the Ohio Valley.  The slow frontal movement is
supported by many of the GEFS...and the latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
GGEM.  Some of the thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall across
New England based some slightly elevated PWAT values.  Lows Tue
night will be in the 50s to lower 60s...and highs on Wed will likely
be surpressed a bit by the scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the mid 70s to around 80F in the valleys...and 60s to lower 70s over
the mountains and hills.

Wed night into Thu...The Northeast will remain under the influence
of cyclonic flow...but enough subsidence in the wake of the
front...and the upper trough axis should have the showers taper off
WED night...and a drier and more stable air mass builds in for Thu.
H850 temps will be in the +11C to +13C range which are near normal.
High pressure at the sfc will be building in from the Central Plains
and Midwest.  After lows mainly in the 50s...aside for some upper
40s over the southern Adirondacks...and eastern Catskills.  Highs
will be slightly below normal to normal for late June in the upper
70s to lower 80s in the valley locations...and upper 60s to mid 70s
over the higher terrain.

Thu night into Saturday...The nice weather looks to continue a
little longer based on the WPC guidance and medium range model
trends.  High pressure continues to ridge in from the lower OH
Valley and WV for the fair weather to persist in the first day of
July.  Temps will rise slightly into the lower to mid 80s in the
major valleys...and 70s to near 80F over the hills an mtns.  A cold
front and prefrontal sfc trough will be approaching from southeast
Canada and the eastern Great Lakes Region Fri night into Saturday
for the next bonafide chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be over New York and New England this afternoon
and slowly slide offshore overnight into tomorrow.

VFR conditions will mainly dominate the next 24 hrs ending
18Z/SUN for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. The exception is for some patchy
MVFR/IFR mist or fog that may briefly form between 08Z-13Z at
KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. We have forecasted a brief window of MVFR mist at
KGFL/KPOU...and have a small window from 09Z-13Z for IFR
radiational mist/fog at KPSF. The mist/fog should burn off quickly
due to subsidence and strong solar heating.

A few cumulus and few-sct cirrus will be around this afternoon
into early this evening...and the cirrus will persist tomorrow
morning.

The winds will be light from the south to southeast at 5 kts or
less prior to 00Z/SUN...and then will be calm overnight. They will
be light and variable in direction at 5 kts or less late tomorrow
morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into Monday. The next
chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next week.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent on Sunday
afternoon and 40 to 60 percent Monday afternoon. Nighttime RH
values should be 80 to 100 percent.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday...and south at 15 mph or less Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251906
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
306 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North
Country through Sunday evening. Abundant sunshine, warm
temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s and low humidity levels
should be the rule. Next chances for showers and thunderstorms is
on Monday continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures then trend near to
below normal for the middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...The North Country remains in mid-
level northwesterly flow aloft between a building 500 mb ridge
axis over the Great Lakes and troughing located over the southern
New England coast. A ridge of high pressure will continue to be in
place, support generally clear skies. However some high clouds
well to our northwest over the northern Great Lakes should advect
into our area later this evening. In addition, initially light
surface winds then become more of a light south wind particularly
after midnight. Temps should plummet pretty quickly everywhere but
then start to level off after midnight especially in the Champlain
and St. Lawrence Valley areas. Thus, I`d expect to see a
significant variation in low temperatures from the mid/upper 40s
in the Adirondacks to the lower to mid 60s in the Champlain
Valley, with 50s pretty common east of the Greens. All are about
1-2 degrees warmer than 12z MOS and recent GFS LAMP guidance.

Ridge of high pressure remains in control with similar sensible
weather conditions to today. The only difference will be an
increase in south winds (occasional gusts to 20-25 mph in the
Champlain Valley) and a slight uptick in dewpoints (upper 50s to
low 60s). 925 mb temperatures increase to +21 to +23C which under
mostly clear to filtered sun supports highs into the 80s to low
90s, cooler along Lake Champlain. Still generally comfortable
perceived humidity levels with afternoon RH values around 30%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Mid/upper level ridge across the
eastern CONUS will slowly breakdown as a series of short waves and
associated 5h trof approach the region. The first pre-frontal trof
and embedded 5h vort in the southwest flow aloft arrives by 12z
Saint Lawrence Valley and moves from west to east across our cwa
on Monday. Dynamics are weakening with this system and axis of
enhanced 850 to 500mb moisture is very narrow...resulting in a 1
to 3 hour window for mainly showers on Monday. Have noted SPC
place our northern NY in marginal outlook...but best instability
occurs after dynamics and ribbon of mid level moisture shifts to
the east of greatest instability and deep layer shear. Based on
limited instability and timing will mention showers with isolated
thunder on Monday...with highest pops/qpf across northern NY.
Thinking initial band of showers will enhance low level moisture
and result in greater instability parameter across Saint Lawrence
Valley after 18z Monday...but soundings are very dry and upstream
forcing is very weak. A mild night is expected Sunday Night with
developing southerly flow ahead of pre-frontal trough with
readings mainly in the 60s to near 70f Champlain Valley. Highs on
Monday afternoon in the 80s....with increasing surface dwpt values
from expected rain showers will produce some higher humidity
values. Another warm and muggy night is expected on monday with
lows mainly in the 60s to near 70f again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Still anticipating an active day on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms...with some
uncertainty on the degree of instability. Synoptic scale shows
strong mid/upper level trof across the northern Great Lakes
approaching the Saint Lawrence Valley by 12z Tuesday with a
surface cold front draped over northern NY. The forecast challenge
will be how much surface heating and instability can develop
before clouds and showers develop. Model progs show surface based
CAPE values between 700-1000 J/kg with most unstable values
associated with warmer surface temperatures/higher dwpts between
1000 and 1500 J/kg from the Dacks eastward. Given the available
upper level forcing...a ribbon of 700 to 500mb winds of 35 to 45
knots...creating deep layer 0 to 6 km shear values around 40
knots...some robust updrafts will support scattered stronger
thunderstorms. The best interaction of instability and shear looks
to occur over central and eastern VT...given expected position of
boundary and location of right rear quad of 75 knot jet at 250mb.
The primary focus would be gusty winds and small hail...if current
progged stability and shear profiles verify. Will continue to
mention likely to cat pops central and eastern cwa with scattered
convection...but not mention enhanced wording due to uncertainty
associated with instability. Still plenty of time to determine
areal coverage of clouds and associated impacts on surface heating
and instability along with timing of boundary.

Wednesday...mid/upper level trof axis swings across our region with
associated cool pocket aloft. This energy and leftover moisture will
produce additional scattered showers on Weds...with highest pops
across the mountains. Thermal profiles support slightly below normal
temperatures with readings mainly in the mid/upper 60s mountains to
mid/upper 70s warmer valleys with progged 850mb temps around 11c.

Thursday through Saturday...fast zonal flow aloft with general
mid/upper level trof will continue with weak short wave ridge by
Friday. This supports a dry forecast on Friday with near normal
temps. Latest trends show the potential for a few lingering leftover
showers on Thursday with trof. Another front along with energy aloft
is expected to impact our region on Friday night into Saturday with
additional showers. Plenty of uncertainty on timing and magnitude of
system...so will just mention chance pops at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. High
pressure remains in control producing a few cirrus clouds through
18z Sunday. Winds light/variable and largely influenced by terrain
effects through evening. Overnight into Sunday, should see more
of a southerly component to the winds which will then increase to
6-9 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts Sunday afternoon.

Outlook 18Z Sunday through Thursday...

18Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/brief
IFR as a cold front brings showers and t-storms. Couple storms may
become strong Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

00z Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Loconto




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251906
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
306 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North
Country through Sunday evening. Abundant sunshine, warm
temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s and low humidity levels
should be the rule. Next chances for showers and thunderstorms is
on Monday continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures then trend near to
below normal for the middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...The North Country remains in mid-
level northwesterly flow aloft between a building 500 mb ridge
axis over the Great Lakes and troughing located over the southern
New England coast. A ridge of high pressure will continue to be in
place, support generally clear skies. However some high clouds
well to our northwest over the northern Great Lakes should advect
into our area later this evening. In addition, initially light
surface winds then become more of a light south wind particularly
after midnight. Temps should plummet pretty quickly everywhere but
then start to level off after midnight especially in the Champlain
and St. Lawrence Valley areas. Thus, I`d expect to see a
significant variation in low temperatures from the mid/upper 40s
in the Adirondacks to the lower to mid 60s in the Champlain
Valley, with 50s pretty common east of the Greens. All are about
1-2 degrees warmer than 12z MOS and recent GFS LAMP guidance.

Ridge of high pressure remains in control with similar sensible
weather conditions to today. The only difference will be an
increase in south winds (occasional gusts to 20-25 mph in the
Champlain Valley) and a slight uptick in dewpoints (upper 50s to
low 60s). 925 mb temperatures increase to +21 to +23C which under
mostly clear to filtered sun supports highs into the 80s to low
90s, cooler along Lake Champlain. Still generally comfortable
perceived humidity levels with afternoon RH values around 30%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Mid/upper level ridge across the
eastern CONUS will slowly breakdown as a series of short waves and
associated 5h trof approach the region. The first pre-frontal trof
and embedded 5h vort in the southwest flow aloft arrives by 12z
Saint Lawrence Valley and moves from west to east across our cwa
on Monday. Dynamics are weakening with this system and axis of
enhanced 850 to 500mb moisture is very narrow...resulting in a 1
to 3 hour window for mainly showers on Monday. Have noted SPC
place our northern NY in marginal outlook...but best instability
occurs after dynamics and ribbon of mid level moisture shifts to
the east of greatest instability and deep layer shear. Based on
limited instability and timing will mention showers with isolated
thunder on Monday...with highest pops/qpf across northern NY.
Thinking initial band of showers will enhance low level moisture
and result in greater instability parameter across Saint Lawrence
Valley after 18z Monday...but soundings are very dry and upstream
forcing is very weak. A mild night is expected Sunday Night with
developing southerly flow ahead of pre-frontal trough with
readings mainly in the 60s to near 70f Champlain Valley. Highs on
Monday afternoon in the 80s....with increasing surface dwpt values
from expected rain showers will produce some higher humidity
values. Another warm and muggy night is expected on monday with
lows mainly in the 60s to near 70f again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Still anticipating an active day on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms...with some
uncertainty on the degree of instability. Synoptic scale shows
strong mid/upper level trof across the northern Great Lakes
approaching the Saint Lawrence Valley by 12z Tuesday with a
surface cold front draped over northern NY. The forecast challenge
will be how much surface heating and instability can develop
before clouds and showers develop. Model progs show surface based
CAPE values between 700-1000 J/kg with most unstable values
associated with warmer surface temperatures/higher dwpts between
1000 and 1500 J/kg from the Dacks eastward. Given the available
upper level forcing...a ribbon of 700 to 500mb winds of 35 to 45
knots...creating deep layer 0 to 6 km shear values around 40
knots...some robust updrafts will support scattered stronger
thunderstorms. The best interaction of instability and shear looks
to occur over central and eastern VT...given expected position of
boundary and location of right rear quad of 75 knot jet at 250mb.
The primary focus would be gusty winds and small hail...if current
progged stability and shear profiles verify. Will continue to
mention likely to cat pops central and eastern cwa with scattered
convection...but not mention enhanced wording due to uncertainty
associated with instability. Still plenty of time to determine
areal coverage of clouds and associated impacts on surface heating
and instability along with timing of boundary.

Wednesday...mid/upper level trof axis swings across our region with
associated cool pocket aloft. This energy and leftover moisture will
produce additional scattered showers on Weds...with highest pops
across the mountains. Thermal profiles support slightly below normal
temperatures with readings mainly in the mid/upper 60s mountains to
mid/upper 70s warmer valleys with progged 850mb temps around 11c.

Thursday through Saturday...fast zonal flow aloft with general
mid/upper level trof will continue with weak short wave ridge by
Friday. This supports a dry forecast on Friday with near normal
temps. Latest trends show the potential for a few lingering leftover
showers on Thursday with trof. Another front along with energy aloft
is expected to impact our region on Friday night into Saturday with
additional showers. Plenty of uncertainty on timing and magnitude of
system...so will just mention chance pops at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. High
pressure remains in control producing a few cirrus clouds through
18z Sunday. Winds light/variable and largely influenced by terrain
effects through evening. Overnight into Sunday, should see more
of a southerly component to the winds which will then increase to
6-9 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts Sunday afternoon.

Outlook 18Z Sunday through Thursday...

18Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/brief
IFR as a cold front brings showers and t-storms. Couple storms may
become strong Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

00z Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Loconto




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