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000
FXUS61 KBTV 011830
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
230 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ON MONDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT SUNDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ACROSS OUR AREA AND MORE RAIN
UPSTREAM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

THE LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT
IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM NY.

A GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP CLOSE TO WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE RAIN
IS BEING FORCED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295/300K
SURFACES.

THE E/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL A BIT ALONG THE ERN
SPINE OF THE NORTHERN DACKS...AND THE NORTHERN GREENS. POPS WERE
INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TWO TENTHS TO HALF AN INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS THEN EXIT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING WEAK RIDGING DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WITH OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 35
TO 45 RANGE AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM 57 TO 63 OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEAK AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SETTLES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH, LIKELY CUTTING
OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS/PCPN WOULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, BEYOND WHICH DEFAULT RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD BACK
ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM. AS SUCH
I`VE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS (40-60 PCT) IN THE
EARLIER TIME FRAMES, THEN TRENDED MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWER POPS
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME WILL TELL HOW ALL THIS EVOLVES,
AND IT`S ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY WHEN DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
UPPER LOWS. PER LATEST BLENDED 925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES FROM
THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS EACH DAY MAINLY IN THE 60S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. IF MORE SUN IS REALIZED BY
LATER IN THE WEEK SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE. YES FOLKS,
SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL IS FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR IN
PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WINDS ARE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS.

THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR
STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY AND NORTHERN VT IN THE 21Z/SUN TO 01Z/MON TIME FRAME BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S
AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR
W/POSSIBLE IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED
FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS
WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
NY. FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011830
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
230 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ON MONDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT SUNDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ACROSS OUR AREA AND MORE RAIN
UPSTREAM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

THE LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT
IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM NY.

A GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP CLOSE TO WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE RAIN
IS BEING FORCED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295/300K
SURFACES.

THE E/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL A BIT ALONG THE ERN
SPINE OF THE NORTHERN DACKS...AND THE NORTHERN GREENS. POPS WERE
INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TWO TENTHS TO HALF AN INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS THEN EXIT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING WEAK RIDGING DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WITH OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 35
TO 45 RANGE AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM 57 TO 63 OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEAK AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SETTLES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH, LIKELY CUTTING
OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS/PCPN WOULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, BEYOND WHICH DEFAULT RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD BACK
ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM. AS SUCH
I`VE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS (40-60 PCT) IN THE
EARLIER TIME FRAMES, THEN TRENDED MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWER POPS
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME WILL TELL HOW ALL THIS EVOLVES,
AND IT`S ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY WHEN DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
UPPER LOWS. PER LATEST BLENDED 925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES FROM
THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS EACH DAY MAINLY IN THE 60S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. IF MORE SUN IS REALIZED BY
LATER IN THE WEEK SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE. YES FOLKS,
SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL IS FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR IN
PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WINDS ARE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS.

THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR
STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY AND NORTHERN VT IN THE 21Z/SUN TO 01Z/MON TIME FRAME BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S
AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR
W/POSSIBLE IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED
FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS
WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
NY. FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES



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000
FXUS61 KALY 011744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS THE FA WILL BE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN IT WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SOME DRIZZLE. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN
SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WVS DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. AT TIMES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...STEADY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES
NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES. AS WE WORK PAST 00Z MONDAY...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH...HOWEVER TAFS STILL DISPLAY BR/-DZ CONDITIONS AS LOW
CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LINGERING BR/-DZ
CONDITIONS. AS WE MOVE PAST 12Z MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN REGION...A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN SOME STEADIER RAINS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MVFR AND
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS
WITHIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY AT
TIMES AS THE NON LINEAR FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 011744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS THE FA WILL BE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN IT WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SOME DRIZZLE. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN
SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WVS DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. AT TIMES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...STEADY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES
NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES. AS WE WORK PAST 00Z MONDAY...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH...HOWEVER TAFS STILL DISPLAY BR/-DZ CONDITIONS AS LOW
CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LINGERING BR/-DZ
CONDITIONS. AS WE MOVE PAST 12Z MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN REGION...A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN SOME STEADIER RAINS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MVFR AND
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS
WITHIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY AT
TIMES AS THE NON LINEAR FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011737
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
137 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ON MONDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT SUNDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ACROSS OUR AREA AND MORE RAIN
UPSTREAM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

THE LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT
IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM NY.

A GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP CLOSE TO WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE RAIN
IS BEING FORCED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295/300K
SURFACES.

THE E/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL A BIT ALONG THE ERN
SPINE OF THE NORTHERN DACKS...AND THE NORTHERN GREENS. POPS WERE
INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TWO TENTHS TO HALF AN INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE BLAST OF STRONG LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ACCORDING TO THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS BY THE EARLY EVENING...BUT RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLUMN
WILL BE SATURATED...AND DESPITE THE WEAKER LIFT OVER THE
REGION...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE CONTINUED TONIGHT. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40-45F RANGE WITH SOME U30S OVER THE HIGH
PEAKS.

MONDAY...ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS W-CENTRAL PA AND
UPSTATE NY MONDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER
TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE IS GOOD QG LIFT FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE
THICKNESS ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO SUNDAY WITH 40S
TO L50S OVER NORTHERN NY AND UPSTATE VT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH A
BUBBLE HIGH BUILDING IN OVER SE CANADA AND NORTHERN NY AND VT LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL VT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS INCLUDED TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTED
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AFTER
LOWS IN THE M30S TO L40S...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE U50S TO
L60S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.

TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ERN
FLANK OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW STRONG THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE.
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL IS FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR IN
PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WINDS ARE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS.

THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR
STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY AND NORTHERN VT IN THE 21Z/SUN TO 01Z/MON TIME FRAME BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S
AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR
W/POSSIBLE IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED
FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS
WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
NY. FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 011726
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A STRATOFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS FROM ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS 60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THIER TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROFING PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA IN
THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SETTLED JUST
WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION REMAINS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS THE
RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THIER SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. AT TIMES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...STEADY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES
NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES. AS WE WORK PAST 00Z MONDAY...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH...HOWEVER TAFS STILL DISPLAY BR/-DZ CONDITIONS AS LOW
CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LINGERING BR/-DZ
CONDITIONS. AS WE MOVE PAST 12Z MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN REGION...A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN SOME STEADIER RAINS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MVFR AND
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS
WITHIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY AT
TIMES AS THE NON LINEAR FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 011725
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A STRATOFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS FROM ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS 60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THIER TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROFING PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA IN
THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SETTLED JUST
WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION REMAINS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS THE
RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THIER SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 011725
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A STRATOFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS FROM ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS 60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THIER TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROFING PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA IN
THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SETTLED JUST
WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION REMAINS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS THE
RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THIER SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 011621
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS FROM ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS 60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011432
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1032 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ON MONDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1029 AM EDT SUNDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ACROSS OUR AREA AND MORE RAIN
UPSTREAM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

THE LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT
IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM NY.

A GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP CLOSE TO WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE RAIN
IS BEING FORCED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295/300K SFCS.

THE E/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL A BIT ALONG THE ERN
SPINE OF THE NRN DACKS...AND THE NRN GREENS. POPS WERE INCREASED
TO CATEGORICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TWO TENTHS TO HALF AN INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE BLAST OF STRONG LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ACCORDING TO THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS BY THE EARLY EVENING...BUT RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLUMN
WILL BE SATURATED...AND DESPITE THE WEAKER LIFT OVER THE
REGION...HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE CONTINUED TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40-45F RANGE WITH SOME U30S OVER THE HIGH
PEAKS.

MONDAY...ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND
UPSTATE NY MONDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL IMPACT THE FCST AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE IS GOOD QG LIFT FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE
THICKENESS ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO SUNDAY WITH 40S
TO L50S OVER NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH A
BUBBLE HIGH BUILDING IN OVER SE CANADA AND NRN NY AND VT LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS OVER CNTRL VT. A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS WAS INCLUDED TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTED PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AFTER LOWS IN THE
M30S TO L40S...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE U50S TO L60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.

TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ERN
FLANK OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MDEIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW STRONG THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE.
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM ADVECTION
RAINFALL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS BTWN 12Z-16Z ACROSS NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT IN STRATIFORM
RAINSHIELD. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS BY NOONTIME.

THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VSBYS BTWN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE
WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY AND NRN VT IN THE
21Z/SUN TO 01Z/MON TIME FRAME BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE.
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS.
TUE - WED:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.
THU:MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 011332
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND PASSES
SOUTH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE DAMP...COOL...AND WET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO SATURATE WITH
LIGHT RAIN FALLING IN MOST ARES.

THIS UPDATE HAS ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THE RAINFALL DUE TO THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS ARE USED FROM
ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011332
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND PASSES
SOUTH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE DAMP...COOL...AND WET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO SATURATE WITH
LIGHT RAIN FALLING IN MOST ARES.

THIS UPDATE HAS ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THE RAINFALL DUE TO THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS ARE USED FROM
ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ON MONDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...RAIN IS MOVING IN AND SHOULD BE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION BETWEEN 8 A.M. AND NOON. IT WILL BE
CLOUDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT
IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM NY.

A GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP CLOSE TO WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE RAIN IS
BEING FORCED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295/300K SFCS.

THE E/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL A BIT ALONG THE ERN
SPINE OF THE NRN DACKS...AND THE NRN GREENS. POPS WERE INCREASED
TO CATEGORICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TWO TENTHS TO HALF AN INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE BLAST OF STRONG LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ACCORDING TO THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS BY THE EARLY EVENING...BUT RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLUMN
WILL BE SATURATED...AND DESPITE THE WEAKER LIFT OVER THE
REGION...HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE CONTINUED TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40-45F RANGE WITH SOME U30S OVER THE HIGH
PEAKS.

MONDAY...ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND
UPSTATE NY MONDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL IMPACT THE FCST AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE IS GOOD QG LIFT FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE
THICKENESS ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO SUNDAY WITH 40S
TO L50S OVER NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH A
BUBBLE HIGH BUILDING IN OVER SE CANADA AND NRN NY AND VT LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS OVER CNTRL VT. A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS WAS INCLUDED TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTED PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AFTER LOWS IN THE
M30S TO L40S...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE U50S TO L60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.

TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ERN
FLANK OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MDEIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW STRONG THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE.
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM ADVECTION
RAINFALL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS BTWN 12Z-16Z ACROSS NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT IN STRATIFORM
RAINSHIELD. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS BY NOONTIME.

THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VSBYS BTWN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE
WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY AND NRN VT IN THE
21Z/SUN TO 01Z/MON TIME FRAME BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE.
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS.
TUE - WED:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.
THU:MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WASULA/SISSON
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WASULA/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 011055
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND PASSES
SOUTH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE DAMP...COOL...AND WET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT...A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS W-CNTRL NY AND PA INTO ERN NY THIS MORNING. THE COLUMN
CONTINUES TO SATURATE WITH LIGHT RAIN ALREADY REACHING THE W-CNTRL
MOHAWK VALLEY...WRN DACKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS BASED ON THE LATEST
REGIONAL AND KENX RADARS...AND SFC OBSERVATIONS.

THIS UPDATE HAS ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THE RAINFALL DUE TO THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS ARE USED FROM
ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON
THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010858
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
458 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN AND LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
RAIN SHIELD APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AS IT HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE 00Z/SUN ALY AND OKX SOUNDINGS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN TODAY WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT APPROACH. GUIDANCE
IS AGREEMENT THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME INTERMITTENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

WILL BE VERY COOL/CHILLY TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF THE
STEADY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN AND LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
RAIN SHIELD APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AS IT HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE 00Z/SUN ALY AND OKX SOUNDINGS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN TODAY WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT APPROACH. GUIDANCE
IS AGREEMENT THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME INTERMITTENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

WILL BE VERY COOL/CHILLY TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF THE
STEADY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN AND LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
RAIN SHIELD APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AS IT HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE 00Z/SUN ALY AND OKX SOUNDINGS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN TODAY WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT APPROACH. GUIDANCE
IS AGREEMENT THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME INTERMITTENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

WILL BE VERY COOL/CHILLY TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF THE
STEADY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010815
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ON MONDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND N-CNTRL VT THIS MORNING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT IS QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM W-CNTRL NY AND PA.

A GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP CLOSE TO WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295/300K SFCS INDICATES PERIODS OF
RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE FCST AREA BTWN 12Z-16Z.
INITIALLY...THE COLUMN WILL BE DRY...BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY SATURATE.
THE E/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL A BIT ALONG THE ERN
SPINE OF THE NRN DACKS...AND THE NRN GREENS. POPS WERE INCREASED
TO CATEGORICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TWO TENTHS TO HALF AN INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE BLAST OF STRONG LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ACCORDING TO THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS BY THE EARLY EVENING...BUT RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLUMN
WILL BE SATURATED...AND DESPITE THE WEAKER LIFT OVER THE
REGION...HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE CONTINUED TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40-45F RANGE WITH SOME U30S OVER THE HIGH
PEAKS.

MONDAY...ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND
UPSTATE NY MONDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL IMPACT THE FCST AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE IS GOOD QG LIFT FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE
THICKENESS ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO SUNDAY WITH 40S
TO L50S OVER NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH A
BUBBLE HIGH BUILDING IN OVER SE CANADA AND NRN NY AND VT LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS OVER CNTRL VT. A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS WAS INCLUDED TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTED PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AFTER LOWS IN THE
M30S TO L40S...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE U50S TO L60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.

TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ERN
FLANK OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MDEIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW STRONG THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE.
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BTWN
12Z-16Z ACROSS NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT IN STRATIFORM RAINSHIELD.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS BY NOONTIME.

THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VSBYS BTWN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE WILL BE
ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY AND NRN VT IN THE 21Z/SUN TO
01Z/MON TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS AT
THIS TIME. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S AT 5-10
KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE.
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA/NEILES
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE DAMP...WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER. HAVE SLOWED ONSET OF
RAINFALL SOME ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THE
RAIN WILL REALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH MID
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S
WITH SOME UPPER 30S. WIND WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM.

WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
AT ALL...TOPPING OUT ONLY 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...50-55
VALLEY LOCATIONS. THESE VALUES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENSIS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFS/GEM AND PREVIOUS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WARM FRONT ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TOWARDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING TUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TOWARD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE REGION TUES EVENING.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MORNING E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF THE
STEADY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON...HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 010606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE DAMP...WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER. HAVE SLOWED ONSET OF
RAINFALL SOME ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THE
RAIN WILL REALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH MID
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S
WITH SOME UPPER 30S. WIND WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM.

WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
AT ALL...TOPPING OUT ONLY 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...50-55
VALLEY LOCATIONS. THESE VALUES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENSIS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFS/GEM AND PREVIOUS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WARM FRONT ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TOWARDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING TUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TOWARD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE REGION TUES EVENING.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MORNING E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF THE
STEADY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON...HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010542
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 134 AM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENTLY BACKING UP WFO BTV. CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT.  NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. VERY DRY AIR REMAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...SO AS PRECIP ARRIVES TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY...EXPECT SOME VIRGA AND AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR.
THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S
VALLEYS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND MORE CLOUDS. ALSO...HAVE MOVED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIP BY
SEVERAL HOURS...AS CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN
ALREADY REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS WESTERN NY/PA. USING THE HRRR
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS...THINKING LIGHT RAIN REACHES WESTERN
CWA BETWEEN 09-11Z...AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 12Z-
14Z..AND INTO MOST OF VT BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REALLY
GOOD.

MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS STILL REAPING THE BENEFITS OF
SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING NORTH
COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE
GOTTEN A BIT BRISK OUT OF THE NORTH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL
DROP QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT WHERE LINGERING CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS CLOUDS INCREASE LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT
THE TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AS A WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
FROM 18Z - 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA AS WELL AS VORTICITY ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS DUE
TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS
OUR AREA WITH PERHAPS JUST A COUPLE 60 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER
POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON
THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.

BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF
PROGS AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX
TEMP GUIDANCE OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S AREA WIDE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT
NORTHEAST WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING DESPITE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24- 36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING
HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH
SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BTWN
12Z-16Z ACROSS NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT IN STRATIFORM RAINSHIELD.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS BY NOONTIME.

THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VSBYS BTWN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE WILL BE
ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY AND NRN VT IN THE 21Z/SUN TO
01Z/MON TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS AT
THIS TIME. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S AT 5-10
KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE.
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WASULA/NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT SATURDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. VERY DRY AIR REMAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...SO AS PRECIP ARRIVES TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY...EXPECT SOME VIRGA AND AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR.
THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S
VALLEYS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND MORE CLOUDS. ALSO...HAVE MOVED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIP BY
SEVERAL HOURS...AS CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN
ALREADY REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS WESTERN NY/PA. USING THE HRRR
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS...THINKING LIGHT RAIN REACHES WESTERN
CWA BETWEEN 09-11Z...AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 12Z-
14Z..AND INTO MOST OF VT BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REALLY
GOOD.

MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS STILL REAPING THE BENEFITS OF
SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING NORTH
COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE
GOTTEN A BIT BRISK OUT OF THE NORTH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL
DROP QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT WHERE LINGERING CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS CLOUDS INCREASE LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT
THE TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AS A WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
FROM 18Z - 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA AS WELL AS VORTICITY ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS DUE
TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS
OUR AREA WITH PERHAPS JUST A COUPLE 60 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER
POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON
THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.

BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF
PROGS AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX
TEMP GUIDANCE OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S AREA WIDE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT
NORTHEAST WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING DESPITE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24- 36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING
HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH
SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY, THEN DETERIORATING
TO WIDESPREAD MVFR REST OF SUNDAY IN STEADY LIGHT RAIN AND
STRATUS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD. THUS EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z BUT WITH
STEADILY LOWERING VFR CEILINGS. WINDS NORTH 5-8 KTS BUT BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

RAIN SHIELD TO THEN BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TAFS THROUGH
SUNDAY. INITIAL VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 5-6 SM IN RAIN, WITH
STEADIER 3 SM RAIN TOWARD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS 1.5-2.5 KFT MAINLY IN THE STEADIER
RAIN ALSO OBSCURING MTNS. INITIAL LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE.
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT SATURDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. VERY DRY AIR REMAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...SO AS PRECIP ARRIVES TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY...EXPECT SOME VIRGA AND AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR.
THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S
VALLEYS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND MORE CLOUDS. ALSO...HAVE MOVED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIP BY
SEVERAL HOURS...AS CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN
ALREADY REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS WESTERN NY/PA. USING THE HRRR
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS...THINKING LIGHT RAIN REACHES WESTERN
CWA BETWEEN 09-11Z...AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 12Z-
14Z..AND INTO MOST OF VT BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REALLY
GOOD.

MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS STILL REAPING THE BENEFITS OF
SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING NORTH
COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE
GOTTEN A BIT BRISK OUT OF THE NORTH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL
DROP QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT WHERE LINGERING CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS CLOUDS INCREASE LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT
THE TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AS A WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
FROM 18Z - 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA AS WELL AS VORTICITY ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS DUE
TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS
OUR AREA WITH PERHAPS JUST A COUPLE 60 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER
POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON
THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.

BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF
PROGS AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX
TEMP GUIDANCE OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S AREA WIDE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT
NORTHEAST WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING DESPITE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24- 36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING
HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH
SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY, THEN DETERIORATING
TO WIDESPREAD MVFR REST OF SUNDAY IN STEADY LIGHT RAIN AND
STRATUS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD. THUS EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z BUT WITH
STEADILY LOWERING VFR CEILINGS. WINDS NORTH 5-8 KTS BUT BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

RAIN SHIELD TO THEN BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TAFS THROUGH
SUNDAY. INITIAL VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 5-6 SM IN RAIN, WITH
STEADIER 3 SM RAIN TOWARD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS 1.5-2.5 KFT MAINLY IN THE STEADIER
RAIN ALSO OBSCURING MTNS. INITIAL LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE.
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KALY 010230
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM...CLOUDS CONTINUED TO VERY SLOW INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY HIGH ONES. RAIN...LOCATED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PA...WORKING INTO SW NY...CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD.
THIS RAIN WAS ASSOCIATED A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY THAT WAS SPREADING INTO PA. WHILE THIS FIRST WAVE WILL
ACTUALLY WEAKEN ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND EASTERLY INFLOW TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FAIRLY MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH.

THE WIND WAS VARIABLE TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...WE EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY WITH A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY SLIP THROUGH
THE 50S AND 40S.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER.

THE RAIN ENCROACH AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BY DAYBREAK...WITH
A FEW POSSIBLE LIGHTER SCATTERED SHOWERS ANYWHERE ELSE IN OUR
REGION. THEN EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY AMOUNTING
TO A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH AT
ALL...TOPPING OUT ONLY 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...50-55 VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THESE VALUES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENSIS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFS/GEM AND PREVIOUS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WARM FRONT ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TOWARDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING TUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TOWARD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE REGION TUES EVENING.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MORNING E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAIN WILL ENCROACH
THE TERMINALS BY 12Z SUNDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
EARLIER...SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH TO THE TAFS BEGINNING AROUND 09Z.

BY 14Z-15Z WE REDUCE ALL FLYING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AS WE EXPECTED
PERIODS OF RAIN AT ALL THE TERMINALS BY THEN. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE
FOR OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO IFR (MAINLY CIGS) BUT FOR NOW HELD
CONDITIONS TO MVFR (LOW MVFR AT KPSF REQUIRING EXTRA FUEL).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS.


OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUES NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 010229
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM...CLOUDS CONTINUED TO VERY SLOW INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY HIGH ONES. RAIN...LOCATED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PA...WORKING INTO SW NY...CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD.
THIS RAIN WAS ASSOCIATED A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY THAT WAS SPREADING INTO PA. WHILE THIS FIRST WAVE WILL
ACTUALLY WEAKEN ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND EASTERLY INFLOW TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FAIRLY MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH.

THE WIND WAS VARIABLE TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...WE EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY WITH A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY SLIP THROUGH
THE 50S AND 40S.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER.

THE RAIN ENCROACH AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BY DAYBREAK...WITH
A FEW POSSIBLE LIGHTER SCATTERED SHOWERS ANYWHERE ELSE IN OUR
REGION. THEN EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY AMOUNTING
TO A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH AT
ALL...TOPPING OUT ONLY 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...50-55 VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THESE VALUES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENSIS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFS/GEM AND PREVIOUS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WARM FRONT ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TOWARDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING TUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TOWARD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE REGION TUES EVENING.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MORNING E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAIN WILL ENCROACH
THE TERMINALS BY 12Z SUNDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
EARLIER...SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH TO THE TAFS BEGINNING AROUND 09Z.

BY 14Z-15Z WE REDUCE ALL FLYING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AS WE EXPECTED
PERIODS OF RAIN AT ALL THE TERMINALS BY THEN. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE
FOR OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO IFR (MAINLY CIGS) BUT FOR NOW HELD
CONDITIONS TO MVFR (LOW MVFR AT KPSF REQUIRING EXTRA FUEL).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS.


OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUES NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 010001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
810 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 810 PM...CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS OUR REGION...SO
FAR...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH SOME LOWER STRATUS CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

IT WAS STILL MILD OUT WITH MANY VALLEYS ENJOYING TEMPERATURES
AROUND 60...MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WAS LIGHT TO NORTHEAST UNDER 10 MPH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...WE EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY WITH A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY SLIP THROUGH
THE 50S.

OVERNIGHT...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES...THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN.
RAIN...WHICH WAS STILL LOCATED WELL TO SOUTHWEST IN WESTERN
PA...WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE LIGHTER SCATTERED SHOWERS ANYWHERE
ELSE IN OUR REGION.


THEREFORE...IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY MIDDAY
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA (FA) WILL
CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN
INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNINGTUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN TUES EVNG.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER...RAIN WILL ENCROACH THE TERMINALS BY
12Z. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE EARLIER...SO WE ASSIGNED
A VCSH TO THE TAFS BEGINNING AROUND 09Z.

BY 14Z-15Z WE REDUCE ALL FLYING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AS WE EXPECTED
PERIODS OF RAIN AT ALL THE TERMINALS BY THEN. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE
FOR OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO IFR (MAINLY CIGS) BUT FOR NOW HELD
CONDITIONS TO MVFR (LOW MVFR AT KPSF REQUIRING EXTRA FUEL).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS.


OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUES NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 302319
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 713 PM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY A MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS. LATE
AFTERNOON VIS SATL PICS SHOW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHERN NY ZONES...WITH VERY DRY SURFACE DEWPOINTS. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO SLOWLY THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING BY MID-
MORNING ON SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY...WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS ANTICIPATED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THINKING CURRENT FORECAST OF UPPER
20S TO UPPER 30S LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL FINE TUNE WITH NEXT UPDATE
LATER THIS EVENING.

MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS STILL REAPING THE BENEFITS OF
SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING NORTH
COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE
GOTTEN A BIT BRISK OUT OF THE NORTH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL
DROP QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT WHERE LINGERING CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS CLOUDS INCREASE LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT
THE TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AS A WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
FROM 18Z - 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA AS WELL AS VORTICITY ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS DUE
TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS
OUR AREA WITH PERHAPS JUST A COUPLE 60 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER
POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON
THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.

BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF
PROGS AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX
TEMP GUIDANCE OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S AREA WIDE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT
NORTHEAST WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING DESPITE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24- 36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING
HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH
SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY, THEN DETERIORATING
TO WIDESPREAD MVFR REST OF SUNDAY IN STEADY LIGHT RAIN AND
STRATUS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD. THUS EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z BUT WITH
STEADILY LOWERING VFR CEILINGS. WINDS NORTH 5-8 KTS BUT BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

RAIN SHIELD TO THEN BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TAFS THROUGH
SUNDAY. INITIAL VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 5-6 SM IN RAIN, WITH
STEADIER 3 SM RAIN TOWARD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS 1.5-2.5 KFT MAINLY IN THE STEADIER
RAIN ALSO OBSCURING MTNS. INITIAL LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE.
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 302301
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
701 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS
STILL REAPING THE BENEFITS OF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE GOTTEN A BIT BRISK OUT OF THE
NORTH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK BY THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT WHERE LINGERING CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS CLOUDS INCREASE
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF. LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AS A WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM 18Z - 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS VORTICITY ADVECTION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS OUR AREA WITH PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE 60 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER
POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON
THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.

BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF
PROGS AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX
TEMP GUIDANCE OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S AREA WIDE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT
NORTHEAST WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING DESPITE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24- 36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING
HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH
SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY, THEN DETERIORATING
TO WIDESPREAD MVFR REST OF SUNDAY IN STEADY LIGHT RAIN AND
STRATUS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD. THUS EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z BUT WITH
STEADILY LOWERING VFR CEILINGS. WINDS NORTH 5-8 KTS BUT BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

RAIN SHIELD TO THEN BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TAFS THROUGH
SUNDAY. INITIAL VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 5-6 SM IN RAIN, WITH
STEADIER 3 SM RAIN TOWARD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS 1.5-2.5 KFT MAINLY IN THE STEADIER
RAIN ALSO OBSCURING MTNS. INITIAL LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE.
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 302301
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
701 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS
STILL REAPING THE BENEFITS OF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE GOTTEN A BIT BRISK OUT OF THE
NORTH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK BY THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT WHERE LINGERING CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS CLOUDS INCREASE
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF. LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AS A WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM 18Z - 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS VORTICITY ADVECTION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS OUR AREA WITH PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE 60 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER
POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON
THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.

BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF
PROGS AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX
TEMP GUIDANCE OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S AREA WIDE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT
NORTHEAST WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING DESPITE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24- 36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING
HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH
SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY, THEN DETERIORATING
TO WIDESPREAD MVFR REST OF SUNDAY IN STEADY LIGHT RAIN AND
STRATUS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD. THUS EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z BUT WITH
STEADILY LOWERING VFR CEILINGS. WINDS NORTH 5-8 KTS BUT BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

RAIN SHIELD TO THEN BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TAFS THROUGH
SUNDAY. INITIAL VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 5-6 SM IN RAIN, WITH
STEADIER 3 SM RAIN TOWARD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS 1.5-2.5 KFT MAINLY IN THE STEADIER
RAIN ALSO OBSCURING MTNS. INITIAL LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE.
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KALY 301952
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
352 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNINGTUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN TUES EVNG.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S



&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUES NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 301952
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
352 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNINGTUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN TUES EVNG.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S



&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUES NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301940
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS
STILL REAPING THE BENEFITS OF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE GOTTEN A BIT BRISK OUT OF THE
NORTH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK BY THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT WHERE LINGERING CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS CLOUDS INCREASE
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF. LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AS A WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM 18Z - 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS VORTICITY ADVECTION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS OUR AREA WITH PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE 60 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER
POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON
THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.

BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF
PROGS AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX
TEMP GUIDANCE OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S AREA WIDE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT
NORTHEAST WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING DESPITE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24- 36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING
HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH
SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MAINLY SKC TODAY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN CANADA. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT BUT REMAINING VFR WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 5000-8000
FT. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS. AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WILL SEE
CEILINGS LOWER FURTHER AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR
TAF SITES. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT LIGHT AND CEILINGS REMAIN
VFR. AFTER 18Z WILL SEE CONDITIONS WORSEN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301940
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS
STILL REAPING THE BENEFITS OF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE GOTTEN A BIT BRISK OUT OF THE
NORTH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK BY THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT WHERE LINGERING CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS CLOUDS INCREASE
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF. LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AS A WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM 18Z - 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS VORTICITY ADVECTION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS OUR AREA WITH PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE 60 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER
POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON
THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.

BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF
PROGS AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX
TEMP GUIDANCE OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S AREA WIDE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT
NORTHEAST WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING DESPITE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24- 36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING
HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH
SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MAINLY SKC TODAY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN CANADA. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT BUT REMAINING VFR WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 5000-8000
FT. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS. AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WILL SEE
CEILINGS LOWER FURTHER AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR
TAF SITES. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT LIGHT AND CEILINGS REMAIN
VFR. AFTER 18Z WILL SEE CONDITIONS WORSEN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301837
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
237 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT SATURDAY...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT MORE IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THEN WE HAD FORECASTED. ALSO BLOWING OFF THE
LAKE IN PLATTSBURGH. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS...STILL SUNNY AND TEMPS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

AFTER A COLD START TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. COULD
SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK
WE`LL SEE TEMPS REACH THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60S
IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND CLOSER TO 65 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV IS NOW 61 DEGREES SO
WE`LL BE CLOSE TO THAT. IT WILL BE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF BTV AS WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION STARTS IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER
POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON
THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.

BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING THROUGH
THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF PROGS AN
ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX TEMP GUIDANCE
OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AREA
WIDE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT NORTHEAST
WITH STEADIER PCPN ENDING DESPITE LINGERING CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24-
36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MAINLY SKC TODAY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN CANADA. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT BUT REMAINING VFR WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 5000-8000
FT. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS. AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WILL SEE
CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER FURTHER AND CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 301820
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
220 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINING
TUESDAY. BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE
PORTIONS OF FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
STALL...AND NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV
ROUNDS THE BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL
AREAS MAY SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN
TUES EVNG. LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY
DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 301820
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
220 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINING
TUESDAY. BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE
PORTIONS OF FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
STALL...AND NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV
ROUNDS THE BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL
AREAS MAY SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN
TUES EVNG. LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY
DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301804
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
204 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT SATURDAY...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT MORE IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THEN WE HAD FORECASTED. ALSO BLOWING OFF THE
LAKE IN PLATTSBURGH. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS...STILL SUNNY AND TEMPS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

AFTER A COLD START TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. COULD
SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK
WE`LL SEE TEMPS REACH THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60S
IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND CLOSER TO 65 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV IS NOW 61 DEGREES SO
WE`LL BE CLOSE TO THAT. IT WILL BE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF BTV AS WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION STARTS IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE IN
EARNEST ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR AREA ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
DEVELOP. THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BECOME MORE STEADY OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE AS A RESULT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL
IN THE ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASING INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
HOWEVER...ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY AND PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN AS OF LATE. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. AND
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING A BIT UNSETTLED IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOKING AT LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND PROCEEDS TO CUTOFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY. THUS LOOKING AT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR SURE AND POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY. DESPITE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
EXTENDED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MAINLY SKC TODAY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN CANADA. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT BUT REMAINING VFR WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 5000-8000
FT. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS. AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WILL SEE
CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER FURTHER AND CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 301735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINING
TUESDAY. BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE
PORTIONS OF FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
STALL...AND NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV
ROUNDS THE BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL
AREAS MAY SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN
TUES EVNG. LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY
DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 301718
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. IT WAS A MILD MID DAY FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS.

WET AND VERY COOL START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACHES AND
A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL
WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINING
TUESDAY. BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE
PORTIONS OF FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
STALL...AND NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV
ROUNDS THE BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL
AREAS MAY SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN
TUES EVNG. LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY
DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 301718
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. IT WAS A MILD MID DAY FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS.

WET AND VERY COOL START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACHES AND
A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL
WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINING
TUESDAY. BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE
PORTIONS OF FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
STALL...AND NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV
ROUNDS THE BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL
AREAS MAY SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN
TUES EVNG. LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY
DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 301611
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1211 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REST WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. IT WAS A MILD MID DAY FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS.

WET AND VERY COOL START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACHES AND
A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL
WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MAINLY IN THE MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
CHILLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
PROVIDE SUNNY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1029 AM EDT SATURDAY...NO CHANGES FOR 1030 AM UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AFTER A COLD START TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. COULD
SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK
WE`LL SEE TEMPS REACH THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60S
IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND CLOSER TO 65 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV IS NOW 61 DEGREES SO
WE`LL BE CLOSE TO THAT. IT WILL BE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF BTV AS WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION STARTS IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE IN
EARNEST ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR AREA ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
DEVELOP. THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BECOME MORE STEADY OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE AS A RESULT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL
IN THE ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASING INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
HOWEVER...ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY AND PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN AS OF LATE. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. AND
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING A BIT UNSETTLED IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOKING AT LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND PROCEEDS TO CUTOFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY. THUS LOOKING AT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR SURE AND POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY. DESPITE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
EXTENDED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY SKC
TODAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN CANADA.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT BUT REMAINING VFR WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING TO 5000-8000 FT. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 301320
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
920 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REST WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. IT WAS A FAIRLY MILD
MORNING FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WET AND VERY COOL START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACH
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING
WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH WITH OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. A LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT SHOULD NOT LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA BUT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE IF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING AND MOVING
OVER THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT WILL BE WET AND COOL AS THE MAIN
LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH ENERGY SHIFTING TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND HEADING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 3.5-7 KFT AGL RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN.  CIGS WILL BE SCT-BKN
IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE BEST CHC OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS REACHING ANY TAF SITE BEFORE 12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A
VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT 09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER
TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 301320
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
920 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REST WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. IT WAS A FAIRLY MILD
MORNING FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WET AND VERY COOL START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACH
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING
WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH WITH OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. A LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT SHOULD NOT LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA BUT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE IF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING AND MOVING
OVER THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT WILL BE WET AND COOL AS THE MAIN
LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH ENERGY SHIFTING TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND HEADING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 3.5-7 KFT AGL RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN.  CIGS WILL BE SCT-BKN
IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE BEST CHC OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS REACHING ANY TAF SITE BEFORE 12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A
VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT 09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER
TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
PROVIDE SUNNY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START TODAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK WE`LL SEE TEMPS REACH
THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
AND CLOSER TO 65 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV IS NOW 61 DEGREES SO WE`LL BE CLOSE
TO THAT. IT WILL BE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING AS LOW AS
20 PERCENT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF BTV AS WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION STARTS IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE IN
EARNEST ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR AREA ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
DEVELOP. THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BECOME MORE STEADY OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE AS A RESULT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL
IN THE ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASING INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
HOWEVER...ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY AND PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN AS OF LATE. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. AND
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING A BIT UNSETTLED IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOKING AT LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND PROCEEDS TO CUTOFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY. THUS LOOKING AT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR SURE AND POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY. DESPITE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
EXTENDED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY SKC
TODAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN CANADA.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT BUT REMAINING VFR WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING TO 5000-8000 FT. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 301051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
651 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REST WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WET AND VERY COOL START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACH
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING
WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH WITH OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. A LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT SHOULD NOT LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA BUT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE IF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING AND MOVING
OVER THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT WILL BE WET AND COOL AS THE MAIN
LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH ENERGY SHIFTING TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND HEADING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 3.5-7 KFT AGL RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN.  CIGS WILL BE SCT-BKN
IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE BEST CHC OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS REACHING ANY TAF SITE BEFORE 12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A
VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT 09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER
TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 300911
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
511 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REST WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
VERY COOL AND WET START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACH
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING
WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PAINS WILL APPROACH WITH OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. A LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT SHOULD NOT LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA BUT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE IF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN MONDAY IN RESPONSE
TO ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING AND MOVING OVER THE
REGION. EITHER WAY IT WILL BE WET AND COOL AS THE MAIN LOW
PASSES OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH ENERGY SHIFTING TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND HEADING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS PA AND SRN NY THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR
KPOU/KPSF WHERE SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE 4-5SM AND 2.5-3.0
KFT AGL RANGE MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS BTWN 08-12Z/SAT. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN.  CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS.
THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 300846
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REST WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE 60S ARE EXPETCED IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS PA AND SRN NY THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR
KPOU/KPSF WHERE SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE 4-5SM AND 2.5-3.0
KFT AGL RANGE MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS BTWN 08-12Z/SAT. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN.  CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS.
THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300800
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL,
WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WE`LL
SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
SEASONABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE
DAY, BUT STILL THINK WE`LL SEE TEMPS REACH THE MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND CLOSER TO 65
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. IT WILL BE DRY
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF BTV AS WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION STARTS IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE IN
EARNEST ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR AREA ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
DEVELOP. THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BECOME MORE STEADY OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE AS A RESULT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL
IN THE ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASING INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
HOWEVER...ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY AND PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN AS OF LATE. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. AND
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING A BIT UNSETTLED IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOKING AT LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND PROCEEDS TO CUTOFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY. THUS LOOKING AT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR SURE AND POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY. DESPITE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
EXTENDED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. &&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MID TO HIGH-LEVEL SCT-BKN DECK OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CLEARING ANTICIPATED BY
MORNING HRS WITH SKC MOST OF THE DAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS START
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT
BUT REMAINING VFR.  WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
214 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL,
WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WE`LL
SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 213 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 20S AND 30S UNDER GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS NORTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK WE`LL SEE TEMPS
REACH THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60S IN THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND CLOSER TO 65 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF BTV AS WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION STARTS IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...A TREND TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN BEGINS BY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS
AND ALLOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WILL TEND TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE INTL BORDER OVER TIME
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR DYNAMICAL LIFT AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCORDINGLY I`VE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF INCREASING
CLOUDS/POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. GIVEN INITIAL DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WET BULB COOLING
PROCESSES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUCH THAT SOME OF
THE PCPN MAY FALL AS MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR A SHORT
PERIOD. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BELOW 3000 FEET AND THIS
SHOULD LARGELY BE A NOVELTY MORE THAN ANYTHING.

DURING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH, DEEPER MOISTURE AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDY AND WET PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HIGH POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED. ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER(WARMER) SIDE OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY(SUNDAY NIGHT) GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND A
GENERAL LACK OF STRONG ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. PTYPE SHOULD FALL AS ALL
RAIN, THOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES WET BULBING PROCESSES TO THE DEGREE
THAT IT DRIVES 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -2C TO -4C RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WOULD SUGGEST SOME RENEWED PTYPE ISSUES ONCE AGAIN AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THIS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION GIVEN ITS DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND
RESULTANT COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY MONDAY OUR LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL
PULL EAST AND CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER OVER TIME DESPITE SOME
LINGERING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD THOUGH THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD
NORMAL EARLY MAY VALUES. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
YET ANOTHER RAPIDLY APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL EVOLVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND ADVANCE EAST BY THE LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL, A TURN TOWARD CLOUDIER MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY TO RETURN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MID TO HIGH-LEVEL SCT-BKN DECK OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CLEARING ANTICIPATED BY
MORNING HRS WITH SKC MOST OF THE DAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS START
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT
BUT REMAINING VFR.  WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 300553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SATURDAY
THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR COOL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE
REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE FRONT WILL SURGE TOWARD US
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWERS ARE MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE SHORT WAVE
HEADS OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS...55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WVS
DIVING SE IN ONT...THE UPR MISS VLY AND A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND WEAK SFC HIGH OVER NE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BUT
WHETHER IT CLEARS OR BCMS PC IS QUESTIONABLE. TEMPS WILL BE NR
NORMALS.

FROM TUES NT THRU THE END OF EFP THE MDLS SPREAD IN SVRL
DIRECTIONS. THE GFS/GEM DIG A STRONG SHORT WV INTO THE S
APPALACHIANS...WITH CYCLOGENESIS ON THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH DEEPENS...AND THE OTHER SHORT WVS PHASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLC. THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND RESULTS IN A
CLASSIC INSIDE THE BENCHMARK NOR EASTER...SOAKING RAIN
DIMINISHING TO -SHRA THUR. THE OVER PLAY OF PHASING IN THESE MDLS
IS ALWAYS SUSPECT.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ENERGY STREAMS SEPARATE AND BRINGS A CDFNT
ACROSS THE RGN WED NT AS N BRANCH OF 500HPA TROF DIVES ACROSS THE
NE USA THU. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM STAYS WELL SOUTH OF
FCA...AND COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE WELL S OF RGN IN ECMWF
SCENARIO. WPC ALSO FOLLOWS ECMWF IN ITS GUID FOR WED. BY THU ALL
GUID HAS SOME KINDA OF CUT OFF OR TROF OVER THE NE ALTHOUGH THE
EVOLUTION WAS DIFFERENT...AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA A GOOD BET.

CONFIDENCE IN MORE WET CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER IS GOOD FOR THURS...AND
FOR A DRY DAY TUESDAY. WED IS THE DAY WITH A MODERATE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE THE SHORT DESCRIPTION IS ALOT OF
CLOUDS...UNSETTLED WITH NR TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FCST WILL USE
SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS PA AND SRN NY THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR
KPOU/KPSF WHERE SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE 4-5SM AND 2.5-3.0
KFT AGL RANGE MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS BTWN 08-12Z/SAT. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN.  CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS.
THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING FROM THE SE CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ONLY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER 10 MPH.

IT LOOKS AS IF OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS TWO LOW PRESSURES PASS TO OUR SOUTH...AND A TROUGH
DIGS IN FROM ALOFT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (OVER 60
PERCENT) BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH LIGHT WIND AND SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 300553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SATURDAY
THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR COOL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE
REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE FRONT WILL SURGE TOWARD US
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWERS ARE MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE SHORT WAVE
HEADS OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS...55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WVS
DIVING SE IN ONT...THE UPR MISS VLY AND A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND WEAK SFC HIGH OVER NE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BUT
WHETHER IT CLEARS OR BCMS PC IS QUESTIONABLE. TEMPS WILL BE NR
NORMALS.

FROM TUES NT THRU THE END OF EFP THE MDLS SPREAD IN SVRL
DIRECTIONS. THE GFS/GEM DIG A STRONG SHORT WV INTO THE S
APPALACHIANS...WITH CYCLOGENESIS ON THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH DEEPENS...AND THE OTHER SHORT WVS PHASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLC. THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND RESULTS IN A
CLASSIC INSIDE THE BENCHMARK NOR EASTER...SOAKING RAIN
DIMINISHING TO -SHRA THUR. THE OVER PLAY OF PHASING IN THESE MDLS
IS ALWAYS SUSPECT.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ENERGY STREAMS SEPARATE AND BRINGS A CDFNT
ACROSS THE RGN WED NT AS N BRANCH OF 500HPA TROF DIVES ACROSS THE
NE USA THU. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM STAYS WELL SOUTH OF
FCA...AND COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE WELL S OF RGN IN ECMWF
SCENARIO. WPC ALSO FOLLOWS ECMWF IN ITS GUID FOR WED. BY THU ALL
GUID HAS SOME KINDA OF CUT OFF OR TROF OVER THE NE ALTHOUGH THE
EVOLUTION WAS DIFFERENT...AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA A GOOD BET.

CONFIDENCE IN MORE WET CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER IS GOOD FOR THURS...AND
FOR A DRY DAY TUESDAY. WED IS THE DAY WITH A MODERATE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE THE SHORT DESCRIPTION IS ALOT OF
CLOUDS...UNSETTLED WITH NR TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FCST WILL USE
SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS PA AND SRN NY THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR
KPOU/KPSF WHERE SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE 4-5SM AND 2.5-3.0
KFT AGL RANGE MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS BTWN 08-12Z/SAT. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN.  CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS.
THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING FROM THE SE CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ONLY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER 10 MPH.

IT LOOKS AS IF OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS TWO LOW PRESSURES PASS TO OUR SOUTH...AND A TROUGH
DIGS IN FROM ALOFT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (OVER 60
PERCENT) BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH LIGHT WIND AND SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300251
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1051 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 1051 PM EDT FRIDAY...GIVEN CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL
AS THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...HAVE OPTED TO RAISE MIN
TEMPERATURES UPWARD SEVERAL DEGREES OVERNIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 244 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND RIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TREND TO MORE PARTLY
CLOUDY NORTH AND CLOUDIER SOUTH AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION, THOUGH CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BTV FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS, GENERALLY
RUNNING IN THE MID/UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS DISSIPATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TO
OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE RESULT
WILL BE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. COULD SEE
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK
WE`LL SEE TEMPS PUSH ABOVE 50 AREA-WIDE WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...A TREND TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN BEGINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS
AND ALLOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WILL TEND TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE INTL BORDER OVER TIME
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR DYNAMICAL LIFT AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCORDINGLY I`VE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF INCREASING
CLOUDS/POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. GIVEN INITIAL DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WET BULB COOLING
PROCESSES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUCH THAT SOME OF
THE PCPN MAY FALL AS MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR A SHORT
PERIOD. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BELOW 3000 FEET AND THIS
SHOULD LARGELY BE A NOVELTY MORE THAN ANYTHING.

DURING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH, DEEPER MOISTURE AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDY AND WET PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HIGH POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED. ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER(WARMER) SIDE OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY(SUNDAY NIGHT) GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND A
GENERAL LACK OF STRONG ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. PTYPE SHOULD FALL AS ALL
RAIN, THOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES WET BULBING PROCESSES TO THE DEGREE
THAT IT DRIVES 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -2C TO -4C RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WOULD SUGGEST SOME RENEWED PTYPE ISSUES ONCE AGAIN AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THIS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION GIVEN ITS DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND
RESULTANT COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY MONDAY OUR LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL
PULL EAST AND CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER OVER TIME DESPITE SOME
LINGERING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD THOUGH THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD
NORMAL EARLY MAY VALUES. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
YET ANOTHER RAPIDLY APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL EVOLVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND ADVANCE EAST BY THE LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL, A TURN TOWARD CLOUDIER MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY TO RETURN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MID TO HIGH-LEVEL BKN/OVC DECK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST CLOUD CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CLEARING ANTICIPATED BY
MORNING HRS WITH SKC THEREAFTER. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT, THEN NORTH UNDER 5 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
00Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KALY 300241
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1041 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY
IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR
COOL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
THE FRONT WILL SURGE TOWARD US AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO
START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS...AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO TRANSLATE FROM THE SE CATSKILLS INTO THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO...PARTICULARLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. FARTHER N AND E...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
SW VT.

THE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM W
TO E BETWEEN 11 PM AND 1 AM. MEANWHILE...THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT UNTIL 2 AM. EVENTUALLY...AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FARTHER EAST...AND FORCING ACROSS THE REGION
DECREASES...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL END. MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
LINGER...HOWEVER...UNTIL OR AFTER DAYBREAK...EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH AS THEY COULD DUE TO PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...GENERALLY BOTTOMING
OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
5-10 MPH SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS....55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WVS
DIVING SE IN ONT...THE UPR MISS VLY AND A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND WEAK SFC HIGH OVER NE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BUT
WHETHER IT CLEARS OR BCMS PC IS QUESTIONABLE. TEMPS WILL BE NR
NORMALS.

FROM TUES NT THRU THE END OF EFP THE MDLS SPREAD IN SVRL
DIRECTIONS. THE GFS/GEM DIG A STRONG SHORT WV INTO THE S
APPALACHIANS...WITH CYCLOGENESIS ON THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH DEEPENS...AND THE OTHER SHORT WVS PHASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLC. THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND RESULTS IN A
CLASSIC INSIDE THE BENCHMARK NOR EASTER...SOAKING RAIN
DIMINISHING TO -SHRA THUR. THE OVER PLAY OF PHASING IN THESE MDLS
IS ALWAYS SUSPECT.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ENERGY STREAMS SEPARATE AND BRINGS A CDFNT
ACROSS THE RGN WED NT AS N BRANCH OF 500HPA TROF DIVES ACROSS THE
NE USA THU. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM STAYS WELL SOUTH OF
FCA...AND COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE WELL S OF RGN IN ECMWF
SCENARIO. WPC ALSO FOLLOWS ECMWF IN ITS GUID FOR WED. BY THU ALL
GUID HAS SOME KINDA OF CUT OFF OR TROF OVER THE NE ALTHOUGH THE
EVOLUTION WAS DIFFERENT...AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA A GOOD BET.

CONFIDENCE IN MORE WET CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER IS GOOD FOR THURS...AND
FOR A DRY DAY TUESDAY. WED IS THE DAY WITH A MODERATE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE THE SHORT DESCRIPTION IS ALOT OF
CLOUDS...UNSETTLED WITH NR TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FCST WILL USE
SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE KALB/KPOU AND KPSF
TERMINALS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...ENDING AT 00Z/SUN. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS COULD ALLOW VSBYS/CIGS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AT KPOU. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ANY GROUND FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUD FORMATION AFTER ANY RAIN TAPERS
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESP IF ANY BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOP. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
INCREASES...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SAT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS EVENING...THEN
TREND INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS. ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY TREND INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AT KPOU...AND WEST/SOUTHWEST AT KPSF BY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING FROM THE SE CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ONLY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER 10 MPH.

IT LOOKS AS IF OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS TWO LOW PRESSURES PASS TO OUR SOUTH...AND A TROUGH
DIGS IN FROM ALOFT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (OVER 60
PERCENT) BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH LIGHT WIND AND SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 300241
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1041 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY
IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR
COOL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
THE FRONT WILL SURGE TOWARD US AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO
START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS...AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO TRANSLATE FROM THE SE CATSKILLS INTO THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO...PARTICULARLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. FARTHER N AND E...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
SW VT.

THE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM W
TO E BETWEEN 11 PM AND 1 AM. MEANWHILE...THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT UNTIL 2 AM. EVENTUALLY...AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FARTHER EAST...AND FORCING ACROSS THE REGION
DECREASES...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL END. MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
LINGER...HOWEVER...UNTIL OR AFTER DAYBREAK...EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH AS THEY COULD DUE TO PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...GENERALLY BOTTOMING
OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
5-10 MPH SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS....55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WVS
DIVING SE IN ONT...THE UPR MISS VLY AND A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND WEAK SFC HIGH OVER NE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BUT
WHETHER IT CLEARS OR BCMS PC IS QUESTIONABLE. TEMPS WILL BE NR
NORMALS.

FROM TUES NT THRU THE END OF EFP THE MDLS SPREAD IN SVRL
DIRECTIONS. THE GFS/GEM DIG A STRONG SHORT WV INTO THE S
APPALACHIANS...WITH CYCLOGENESIS ON THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH DEEPENS...AND THE OTHER SHORT WVS PHASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLC. THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND RESULTS IN A
CLASSIC INSIDE THE BENCHMARK NOR EASTER...SOAKING RAIN
DIMINISHING TO -SHRA THUR. THE OVER PLAY OF PHASING IN THESE MDLS
IS ALWAYS SUSPECT.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ENERGY STREAMS SEPARATE AND BRINGS A CDFNT
ACROSS THE RGN WED NT AS N BRANCH OF 500HPA TROF DIVES ACROSS THE
NE USA THU. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM STAYS WELL SOUTH OF
FCA...AND COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE WELL S OF RGN IN ECMWF
SCENARIO. WPC ALSO FOLLOWS ECMWF IN ITS GUID FOR WED. BY THU ALL
GUID HAS SOME KINDA OF CUT OFF OR TROF OVER THE NE ALTHOUGH THE
EVOLUTION WAS DIFFERENT...AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA A GOOD BET.

CONFIDENCE IN MORE WET CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER IS GOOD FOR THURS...AND
FOR A DRY DAY TUESDAY. WED IS THE DAY WITH A MODERATE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE THE SHORT DESCRIPTION IS ALOT OF
CLOUDS...UNSETTLED WITH NR TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FCST WILL USE
SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE KALB/KPOU AND KPSF
TERMINALS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...ENDING AT 00Z/SUN. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS COULD ALLOW VSBYS/CIGS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AT KPOU. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ANY GROUND FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUD FORMATION AFTER ANY RAIN TAPERS
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESP IF ANY BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOP. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
INCREASES...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SAT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS EVENING...THEN
TREND INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS. ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY TREND INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AT KPOU...AND WEST/SOUTHWEST AT KPSF BY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING FROM THE SE CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ONLY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER 10 MPH.

IT LOOKS AS IF OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS TWO LOW PRESSURES PASS TO OUR SOUTH...AND A TROUGH
DIGS IN FROM ALOFT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (OVER 60
PERCENT) BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH LIGHT WIND AND SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 292341
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 741 PM EDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS
TO GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 244 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND RIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TREND TO MORE PARTLY
CLOUDY NORTH AND CLOUDIER SOUTH AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION, THOUGH CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BTV FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS, GENERALLY
RUNNING IN THE MID/UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS DISSIPATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TO
OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE RESULT
WILL BE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. COULD SEE
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK
WE`LL SEE TEMPS PUSH ABOVE 50 AREA-WIDE WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...A TREND TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN BEGINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS
AND ALLOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WILL TEND TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE INTL BORDER OVER TIME
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR DYNAMICAL LIFT AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCORDINGLY I`VE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF INCREASING
CLOUDS/POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. GIVEN INITIAL DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WET BULB COOLING
PROCESSES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUCH THAT SOME OF
THE PCPN MAY FALL AS MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR A SHORT
PERIOD. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BELOW 3000 FEET AND THIS
SHOULD LARGELY BE A NOVELTY MORE THAN ANYTHING.

DURING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH, DEEPER MOISTURE AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDY AND WET PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HIGH POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED. ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER(WARMER) SIDE OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY(SUNDAY NIGHT) GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND A
GENERAL LACK OF STRONG ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. PTYPE SHOULD FALL AS ALL
RAIN, THOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES WET BULBING PROCESSES TO THE DEGREE
THAT IT DRIVES 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -2C TO -4C RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WOULD SUGGEST SOME RENEWED PTYPE ISSUES ONCE AGAIN AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THIS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION GIVEN ITS DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND
RESULTANT COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY MONDAY OUR LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL
PULL EAST AND CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER OVER TIME DESPITE SOME
LINGERING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD THOUGH THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD
NORMAL EARLY MAY VALUES. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
YET ANOTHER RAPIDLY APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL EVOLVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND ADVANCE EAST BY THE LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL, A TURN TOWARD CLOUDIER MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY TO RETURN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MID TO HIGH-LEVEL BKN/OVC DECK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST CLOUD CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CLEARING ANTICIPATED BY
MORNING HRS WITH SKC THEREAFTER. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT, THEN NORTH UNDER 5 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
00Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KALY 292326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
726 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY
IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR
COOL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
THE FRONT WILL SURGE TOWARD US AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO
START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PA. THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS...AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SCHOHARIE CO...WITH SOME SPRINKLES OCCASIONALLY BREAKING OFF THIS
BAND AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE EXPECT THE BEST FORCING WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. SO...EXPECT THE CURRENT BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE CO REGION TO SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST...WITH
SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND PERHAPS THE BERKSHIRES. ALSO...A STEADIER AREA OF
RAIN...SOME MODERATE IN INTENSITY...WAS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE
ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS AND THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS. THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TRANSLATING EAST
SOUTHEAST...OVERSPREADING THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
REGION AND EVENTUALLY NW CT BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM.

THE AREAS OF RAIN SHOULD THEN PERSIST UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SINKING BACK SOUTHEAST AND DECREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE. PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER UNTIL DAYBREAK...EXCEPT
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH AS THEY COULD DUE TO PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...GENERALLY BOTTOMING
OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
5-10 MPH SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS....55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WVS
DIVING SE IN ONT...THE UPR MISS VLY AND A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND WEAK SFC HIGH OVER NE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BUT
WHETHER IT CLEARS OR BCMS PC IS QUESTIONABLE. TEMPS WILL BE NR
NORMALS.

FROM TUES NT THRU THE END OF EFP THE MDLS SPREAD IN SVRL
DIRECTIONS. THE GFS/GEM DIG A STRONG SHORT WV INTO THE S
APPALACHIANS...WITH CYCLOGENESIS ON THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH DEEPENS...AND THE OTHER SHORT WVS PHASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLC. THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND RESULTS IN A
CLASSIC INSIDE THE BENCHMARK NOR EASTER...SOAKING RAIN
DIMINISHING TO -SHRA THUR. THE OVER PLAY OF PHASING IN THESE MDLS
IS ALWAYS SUSPECT.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ENERGY STREAMS SEPARATE AND BRINGS A CDFNT
ACROSS THE RGN WED NT AS N BRANCH OF 500HPA TROF DIVES ACROSS THE
NE USA THU. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM STAYS WELL SOUTH OF
FCA...AND COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE WELL S OF RGN IN ECMWF
SCENARIO. WPC ALSO FOLLOWS ECMWF IN ITS GUID FOR WED. BY THU ALL
GUID HAS SOME KINDA OF CUT OFF OR TROF OVER THE NE ALTHOUGH THE
EVOLUTION WAS DIFFERENT...AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA A GOOD BET.

CONFIDENCE IN MORE WET CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER IS GOOD FOR THURS...AND
FOR A DRY DAY TUESDAY. WED IS THE DAY WITH A MODERATE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE THE SHORT DESCRIPTION IS ALOT OF
CLOUDS...UNSETTLED WITH NR TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FCST WILL USE
SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE KALB/KPOU AND KPSF
TERMINALS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...ENDING AT 00Z/SUN. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS COULD ALLOW VSBYS/CIGS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AT KPOU. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ANY GROUND FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUD FORMATION AFTER ANY RAIN TAPERS
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESP IF ANY BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOP. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
INCREASES...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SAT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS EVENING...THEN
TREND INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS. ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY TREND INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AT KPOU...AND WEST/SOUTHWEST AT KPSF BY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

SOME LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR TONIGHT WITH
AMOUNTS WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN
A FEW SPRINKLES TONIGHT FURTHER NORTH WITH A PARTIAL RECOVERY AND
LIGHT OR CALM WIND.

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ONLY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER 10 MPH.

IT LOOKS AS IF OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS TWO LOW PRESSURES PASS TO OUR SOUTH...AND A TROUGH
DIGS IN FROM ALOFT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (OVER 60
PERCENT) BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH LIGHT WIND AND SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 292316
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
716 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 244 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT AND RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON TREND TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND CLOUDIER
SOUTH AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS
PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION, THOUGH CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BTV
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS, GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS DISSIPATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TO
OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE RESULT
WILL BE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. COULD SEE
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK
WE`LL SEE TEMPS PUSH ABOVE 50 AREA-WIDE WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...A TREND TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN BEGINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS
AND ALLOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WILL TEND TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE INTL BORDER OVER TIME
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR DYNAMICAL LIFT AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCORDINGLY I`VE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF INCREASING
CLOUDS/POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. GIVEN INITIAL DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WET BULB COOLING
PROCESSES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUCH THAT SOME OF
THE PCPN MAY FALL AS MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR A SHORT
PERIOD. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BELOW 3000 FEET AND THIS
SHOULD LARGELY BE A NOVELTY MORE THAN ANYTHING.

DURING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH, DEEPER MOISTURE AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDY AND WET PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HIGH POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED. ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER(WARMER) SIDE OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY(SUNDAY NIGHT) GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND A
GENERAL LACK OF STRONG ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. PTYPE SHOULD FALL AS ALL
RAIN, THOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES WET BULBING PROCESSES TO THE DEGREE
THAT IT DRIVES 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -2C TO -4C RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WOULD SUGGEST SOME RENEWED PTYPE ISSUES ONCE AGAIN AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THIS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION GIVEN ITS DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND
RESULTANT COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY MONDAY OUR LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL
PULL EAST AND CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER OVER TIME DESPITE SOME
LINGERING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD THOUGH THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD
NORMAL EARLY MAY VALUES. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
YET ANOTHER RAPIDLY APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL EVOLVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND ADVANCE EAST BY THE LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL, A TURN TOWARD CLOUDIER MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY TO RETURN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MID TO HIGH-LEVEL BKN/OVC DECK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST CLOUD CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CLEARING ANTICIPATED BY
MORNING HRS WITH SKC THEREAFTER. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT, THEN NORTH UNDER 5 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
00Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 292316
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
716 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 244 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT AND RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON TREND TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND CLOUDIER
SOUTH AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS
PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION, THOUGH CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BTV
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS, GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS DISSIPATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TO
OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE RESULT
WILL BE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. COULD SEE
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK
WE`LL SEE TEMPS PUSH ABOVE 50 AREA-WIDE WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...A TREND TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN BEGINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS
AND ALLOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WILL TEND TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE INTL BORDER OVER TIME
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR DYNAMICAL LIFT AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCORDINGLY I`VE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF INCREASING
CLOUDS/POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. GIVEN INITIAL DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WET BULB COOLING
PROCESSES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUCH THAT SOME OF
THE PCPN MAY FALL AS MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR A SHORT
PERIOD. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BELOW 3000 FEET AND THIS
SHOULD LARGELY BE A NOVELTY MORE THAN ANYTHING.

DURING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH, DEEPER MOISTURE AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDY AND WET PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HIGH POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED. ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER(WARMER) SIDE OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY(SUNDAY NIGHT) GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND A
GENERAL LACK OF STRONG ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. PTYPE SHOULD FALL AS ALL
RAIN, THOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES WET BULBING PROCESSES TO THE DEGREE
THAT IT DRIVES 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -2C TO -4C RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WOULD SUGGEST SOME RENEWED PTYPE ISSUES ONCE AGAIN AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THIS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION GIVEN ITS DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND
RESULTANT COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY MONDAY OUR LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL
PULL EAST AND CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER OVER TIME DESPITE SOME
LINGERING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD THOUGH THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD
NORMAL EARLY MAY VALUES. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
YET ANOTHER RAPIDLY APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL EVOLVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND ADVANCE EAST BY THE LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL, A TURN TOWARD CLOUDIER MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY TO RETURN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MID TO HIGH-LEVEL BKN/OVC DECK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST CLOUD CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CLEARING ANTICIPATED BY
MORNING HRS WITH SKC THEREAFTER. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT, THEN NORTH UNDER 5 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
00Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KALY 291929
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
329 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY
IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR
COOL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
THE FRONT WILL SURGE TOWARD US AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO
START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...LATEST REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE A BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WEST/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO SCHOHARIE CO...AND IS EXPANDING EAST AS THE BAND SLOWLY
MIGRATES NORTHEAST. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF FAIRLY POTENT
SHORTWAVE IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE.

LATEST HI-RES NEAR TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT AREAS NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION AFTER SUNSET.

THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED CHC POPS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION
WITHIN THE I-90 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A LIGHT TO SOUTH WIND WAS STIRRING...5-10 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR 60 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 50S
MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH AS THEY COULD...GENERALLY
BOTTOMING OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE WIND WILL TURN
BACK TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST BUT REMAIN LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10
MPH.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS....55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WVS
DIVING SE IN ONT...THE UPR MISS VLY AND A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND WEAK SFC HIGH OVER NE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BUT
WHETHER IT CLEARS OR BCMS PC IS QUESTIONABLE. TEMPS WILL BE NR
NORMALS.

FROM TUES NT THRU THE END OF EFP THE MDLS SPREAD IN SVRL
DIRECTIONS. THE GFS/GEM DIG A STRONG SHORT WV INTO THE S
APPALACHIANS...WITH CYCLOGENISUS ON THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH DEEPENS...AND THE OTHER SHORT WVS PHASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLC. THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND RESULTS IN A
CLASSIC INSIDE THE BENCHMARK NOR EASTER...SOAKING RAIN
DIMINISHING TO -SHRA THUR. THE OVER PLAY OF PHASING IN THESE MDLS
IS ALWAYS SUSPECT.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ENERGY STREAMS SEPARATE AND BRINGS A CDFNT
ACROSS THE RGN WED NT AS N BRANCH OF 500HPA TROF DIVES ACROSS THE
NE USA THU. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM STAYS WELL SOUTH OF
FCA...AND COASTAL CYCLOGENISUS WILL BE WELL S OF RGN IN ECMWF
SCENARIO. WPC ALSO FOLLOWS ECMWF IN ITS GUID FOR WED. BY THU ALL
GUID HAS SOME KINDA OF CUT OFF OR TROF OVER THE NE ALTHOUGH THE
EVOLUTION WAS DIFFERENT...AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA A GOOD BET.

CONFIDENCE IN MORE WET CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER IS GOOD FOR THURS...AND
FOR A DRY DAY TUESDAY. WED IS THE DAY WITH A MODERATE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE THE SHORT DESCRIPTION IS ALOT OF
CLOUDS...UNSETTLED WITH NR TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FCST WILL USE
SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
18Z SATURDAY.

WE DID INCLUDE A LITTLE GUSTINESS AT KALB AND KPOU THROUGH 22Z (A
TEMPO GROUP).

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (VCSH) AT KPOU AFTER 23Z. WE DID INCLUDE A
PROB30 FOR SHOWERS REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT KPOU BETWEEN 03Z
AND 09Z AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH VARIABLE WINDS 5KTS OR
LESS.

TOMORROW...AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE. THE WIND
WILL COME PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...VARIABLE AT KPSF...GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.


.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

SOME LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR TONIGHT WITH
AMOUNTS WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN
A FEW SPRINKLES TONIGHT FURTHER NORTH WITH A PARTIAL RECOVERY AND
LIGHT OR CALM WIND.

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ONLY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER 10 MPH.

IT LOOKS AS IF OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS TWO LOW PRESSURES PASS TO OUR SOUTH...AND A TROUGH
DIGS IN FROM ALOFT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (OVER 60
PERCENT) BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH LIGHT WIND AND SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




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