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000
FXUS61 KALY 300248
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1048 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER PREVALENT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A FEW MORE BREAKS NOW OCCURRING PER THE REGIONAL
METARS AND THE LAST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SO WITH THIS
UPDATE DID KEEP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
/PTCLOUDY/ AND LEFT THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW. SOME
BREAKS COULD ALLOW FOR DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO GET RATHER
CLOSE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD OF WEATHER AND
MOIST GROUNDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS.  OVERNIGHT...WHERE BREAKS
DO OCCUR WE MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR VIS ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO FOG AND
HAVE PLACE THESE INTO KGFL-PSF WITH A `VCFG` INTO KALB-KPOU
OVERNIGHT.

ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE AS
ANOTHER VFR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT AROUND THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 300248
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1048 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER PREVALENT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A FEW MORE BREAKS NOW OCCURRING PER THE REGIONAL
METARS AND THE LAST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SO WITH THIS
UPDATE DID KEEP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
/PTCLOUDY/ AND LEFT THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW. SOME
BREAKS COULD ALLOW FOR DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO GET RATHER
CLOSE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD OF WEATHER AND
MOIST GROUNDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS.  OVERNIGHT...WHERE BREAKS
DO OCCUR WE MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR VIS ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO FOG AND
HAVE PLACE THESE INTO KGFL-PSF WITH A `VCFG` INTO KALB-KPOU
OVERNIGHT.

ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE AS
ANOTHER VFR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT AROUND THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST
SECTIONS...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 5-8 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. LOOKING UPSTREAM
...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SERN
ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MID- LEVEL
VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION THRU 10Z...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS (PARTLY CLOUDY) ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
SATURATED FROM THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48
HRS. WITH THAT IN MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO
TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 04-12Z. BEST POTENTIAL IS IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK
REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. ADDED A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY 10-12Z
WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST LOCAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD VFR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST. CLOUDS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT LARGER CLOUD SHIELD WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH EVENTUAL
CLEARING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...WHICH SHOULD THEN BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE FOG AND VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK AND KMPV THROUGH 12Z.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SHALLOW FOG AT KBTV AND KRUT DURING THIS
TIME. ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...EVENSON/TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 292349
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA
SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 04-12Z.
BEST POTENTIAL IS IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN
VT...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW AT 5-8MPH IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW
50S...EXCEPT MID-UPR 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD VFR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST. CLOUDS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT LARGER CLOUD SHIELD WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH EVENTUAL
CLEARING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...WHICH SHOULD THEN BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE FOG AND VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK AND KMPV THROUGH 12Z.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SHALLOW FOG AT KBTV AND KRUT DURING THIS
TIME. ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...EVENSON/TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 292340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA
SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 04-12Z.
BEST POTENTIAL IS IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN
VT...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW AT 5-8MPH IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW
50S...EXCEPT MID-UPR 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER






000
FXUS61 KBTV 292340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA
SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 04-12Z.
BEST POTENTIAL IS IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN
VT...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW AT 5-8MPH IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW
50S...EXCEPT MID-UPR 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER






000
FXUS61 KBTV 292340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA
SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 04-12Z.
BEST POTENTIAL IS IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN
VT...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW AT 5-8MPH IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW
50S...EXCEPT MID-UPR 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER






000
FXUS61 KBTV 292340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA
SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 04-12Z.
BEST POTENTIAL IS IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN
VT...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW AT 5-8MPH IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW
50S...EXCEPT MID-UPR 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER






000
FXUS61 KALY 292338
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER PREVALENT ACROSS THE
REGION PER THE REGIONAL METARS AND THE LAST VISIBLE GOES IMAGERY OF
DAYLIGHT.  SO WITH THIS UPDATE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION /PTCLOUDY/ AND LEFT THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR
NOW.  SOME BREAKS COULD ALLOW FOR DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO GET RATHER
CLOSE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD OF WEATHER AND MOIST
GROUNDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS.  OVERNIGHT...WHERE BREAKS
DO OCCUR WE MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR VIS ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO FOG AND
HAVE PLACE THESE INTO KGFL-PSF WITH A `VCFG` INTO KALB-KPOU
OVERNIGHT.

ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE AS
ANOTHER VFR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT AROUND THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY









000
FXUS61 KALY 292338
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER PREVALENT ACROSS THE
REGION PER THE REGIONAL METARS AND THE LAST VISIBLE GOES IMAGERY OF
DAYLIGHT.  SO WITH THIS UPDATE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION /PTCLOUDY/ AND LEFT THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR
NOW.  SOME BREAKS COULD ALLOW FOR DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO GET RATHER
CLOSE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD OF WEATHER AND MOIST
GROUNDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS.  OVERNIGHT...WHERE BREAKS
DO OCCUR WE MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR VIS ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO FOG AND
HAVE PLACE THESE INTO KGFL-PSF WITH A `VCFG` INTO KALB-KPOU
OVERNIGHT.

ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE AS
ANOTHER VFR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT AROUND THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY










000
FXUS61 KALY 292010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
304 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLEAR COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...AN AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER AS
OPPOSED TO LATE JULY. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 70 TO 75 IN THE
VALLEYS...65 TO 70 HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS BLOTTED OUT
THE SUN AT TIMES...AND RANDOM SPRINKLE COULD NOT BE RULED. A
NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGE 5 TO 10 MPH.

THE CLOUDS AND ANY SPRINKLES WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN.
MOST CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE...THE WIND WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM. THIS
WILL ALL SET US UP FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO THE
LOWER 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 40S
MOST OUTLYING AREAS. THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS
LATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND QUITE A
BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CLOUDINESS HAS MADE FOR SCATTERED VARIABLE
BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE MORE SCATTERED
CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 06Z-13Z AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 10 KT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
AT KALB AND KPSF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 292010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
304 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLEAR COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...AN AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER AS
OPPOSED TO LATE JULY. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 70 TO 75 IN THE
VALLEYS...65 TO 70 HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS BLOTTED OUT
THE SUN AT TIMES...AND RANDOM SPRINKLE COULD NOT BE RULED. A
NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGE 5 TO 10 MPH.

THE CLOUDS AND ANY SPRINKLES WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN.
MOST CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE...THE WIND WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM. THIS
WILL ALL SET US UP FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO THE
LOWER 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 40S
MOST OUTLYING AREAS. THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS
LATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND QUITE A
BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CLOUDINESS HAS MADE FOR SCATTERED VARIABLE
BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE MORE SCATTERED
CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 06Z-13Z AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 10 KT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
AT KALB AND KPSF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 291926
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS WE REMAIN UNDER A DRY CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
JAMES BAY REGION. PLENTY OF CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING THOUGH NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCALES THOUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN VERMONT...AND
LOW/MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 291926
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS WE REMAIN UNDER A DRY CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
JAMES BAY REGION. PLENTY OF CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING THOUGH NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCALES THOUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN VERMONT...AND
LOW/MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291916
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PARTY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY WILL ONLY
RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN RATHER STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291916
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PARTY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY WILL ONLY
RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN RATHER STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 291718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
118 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PARTY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY WILL ONLY
RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN RATHER STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
118 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PARTY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY WILL ONLY
RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN RATHER STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
118 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PARTY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY WILL ONLY
RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN RATHER STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
118 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PARTY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY WILL ONLY
RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN RATHER STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KALY 291714
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A DRY AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN
LATE JULY.  DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...LOTS OF CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST AREAS
DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL CAP (WARMING) IN THE SOUNDING SO CUMULUS SHOULD NOT GROW
TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER OR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES COULD FALL...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ADDED A FEW CLOUDS PER SATELLITE AND CANADIAN ASTRONOMICAL
CLOUD FORECAST DATA. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE GIVEN THE RAOB AND
UPPER AIR DATA.

SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE...THAT SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY (RAINFALL TOO LIGHT TO MEASURE)
AND COOL BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY AROUND 70 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...SO COOLER THAN NORMAL. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMFORTABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND QUITE A
BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CLOUDINESS HAS MADE FOR SCATTERED VARIABLE
BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE MORE SCATTERED
CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 06Z-13Z AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOONAT 10 KT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
AT KALB AND KPSF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 291714
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A DRY AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN
LATE JULY.  DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...LOTS OF CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST AREAS
DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL CAP (WARMING) IN THE SOUNDING SO CUMULUS SHOULD NOT GROW
TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER OR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES COULD FALL...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ADDED A FEW CLOUDS PER SATELLITE AND CANADIAN ASTRONOMICAL
CLOUD FORECAST DATA. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE GIVEN THE RAOB AND
UPPER AIR DATA.

SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE...THAT SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY (RAINFALL TOO LIGHT TO MEASURE)
AND COOL BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY AROUND 70 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...SO COOLER THAN NORMAL. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMFORTABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND QUITE A
BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CLOUDINESS HAS MADE FOR SCATTERED VARIABLE
BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE MORE SCATTERED
CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 06Z-13Z AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOONAT 10 KT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
AT KALB AND KPSF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 291648
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A DRY AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN
LATE JULY.  DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...LOTS OF CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST AREAS
DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL CAP (WARMING) IN THE SOUNDING SO CUMULUS SHOULD NOT GROW
TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER OR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES COULD FALL...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ADDED A FEW CLOUDS PER SATELLITE AND CANADIAN ASTRONOMICAL
CLOUD FORECAST DATA. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE GIVEN THE RAOB AND
UPPER AIR DATA.

SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE...THAT SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY (RAINFALL TOO LIGHT TO MEASURE)
AND COOL BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY AROUND 70 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...SO COOLER THAN NORMAL. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMFORTABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING AROUND 50 DEGREES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 291648
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A DRY AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN
LATE JULY.  DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...LOTS OF CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST AREAS
DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL CAP (WARMING) IN THE SOUNDING SO CUMULUS SHOULD NOT GROW
TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER OR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES COULD FALL...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ADDED A FEW CLOUDS PER SATELLITE AND CANADIAN ASTRONOMICAL
CLOUD FORECAST DATA. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE GIVEN THE RAOB AND
UPPER AIR DATA.

SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE...THAT SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY (RAINFALL TOO LIGHT TO MEASURE)
AND COOL BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY AROUND 70 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...SO COOLER THAN NORMAL. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMFORTABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING AROUND 50 DEGREES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KBTV 291645
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PARTY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY WILL ONLY
RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN RATHER STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW







000
FXUS61 KBTV 291425
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1025 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT TUESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH
ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.

WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE BRINGING CLEARING THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291425
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1025 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT TUESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH
ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.

WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE BRINGING CLEARING THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW







000
FXUS61 KALY 291422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN A FAIR
BUT COOL DAY. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE
LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM...AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...WITH SUNSHINE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...DECENT MIXING EVEN AS WE ADVECT COOLER
AIR AT LOW LEVELS. BASED ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES IF ANY TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT SOME 60S IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA











000
FXUS61 KALY 291422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN A FAIR
BUT COOL DAY. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE
LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM...AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...WITH SUNSHINE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...DECENT MIXING EVEN AS WE ADVECT COOLER
AIR AT LOW LEVELS. BASED ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES IF ANY TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT SOME 60S IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KALY 291406
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN A FAIR
BUT COOL DAY. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE
LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM...AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...WITH SUNSHINE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...DECENT MIXING EVEN AS WE ADVECT COOLER
AIR AT LOW LEVELS. BASED ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES IF ANY TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT SOME 60S IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 291406
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN A FAIR
BUT COOL DAY. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE
LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM...AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...WITH SUNSHINE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...DECENT MIXING EVEN AS WE ADVECT COOLER
AIR AT LOW LEVELS. BASED ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES IF ANY TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT SOME 60S IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 731 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE BRINGING CLEARING THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 731 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE BRINGING CLEARING THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW







000
FXUS61 KBTV 291118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MAINE AIR SKIES WILL BE
CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW






000
FXUS61 KBTV 291118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MAINE AIR SKIES WILL BE
CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW






000
FXUS61 KBTV 291118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MAINE AIR SKIES WILL BE
CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW






000
FXUS61 KBTV 291118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MAINE AIR SKIES WILL BE
CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW






000
FXUS61 KALY 291037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS IT IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS
ALLOWING HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD. LOOKING AT A FAIR BUT COOL
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 291037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS IT IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS
ALLOWING HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD. LOOKING AT A FAIR BUT COOL
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 291037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS IT IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS
ALLOWING HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD. LOOKING AT A FAIR BUT COOL
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 291037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS IT IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS
ALLOWING HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD. LOOKING AT A FAIR BUT COOL
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290853
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
453 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MAINE AIR SKIES WILL BE
CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN HAS PRIMARILY ENDED ACROSS FORECAST
AREA WITH CLOUDS STARTING TO BREAK ACROSS NRN NY. A WIDE RANGE OF
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. VFR AT KPBG/KMSS BUT
MVFR AT KBTV/KRUT WITH IFR FOR KMPV/KSLK DUE TO LOW CLDS/FOG AS
WINDS ARE DECOUPLING FM ERLR.

AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW









000
FXUS61 KBTV 290853
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
453 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MAINE AIR SKIES WILL BE
CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN HAS PRIMARILY ENDED ACROSS FORECAST
AREA WITH CLOUDS STARTING TO BREAK ACROSS NRN NY. A WIDE RANGE OF
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. VFR AT KPBG/KMSS BUT
MVFR AT KBTV/KRUT WITH IFR FOR KMPV/KSLK DUE TO LOW CLDS/FOG AS
WINDS ARE DECOUPLING FM ERLR.

AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW










000
FXUS61 KALY 290835
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AS IT IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL
ALLOW HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE AREA...SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVER CANADA. FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE VFR FOR THE VALLEY TAF SITES...BUT REMAIN IFR AT KPSF
THANKS TO LINGERING LOW STRATUS.  AS LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT KPSF BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. W-NW WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS...WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO DISSIPATE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290632
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
232 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY DRYING UP
WITH CLEARING SKIES ALREADING INTO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP AROUND
BY DAY BREAK. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A FEW SPOT
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN HAS PRIMARILY ENDED ACROSS FORECAST
AREA WITH CLOUDS STARTING TO BREAK ACROSS NRN NY. A WIDE RANGE OF
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. VFR AT KPBG/KMSS BUT
MVFR AT KBTV/KRUT WITH IFR FOR KMPV/KSLK DUE TO LOW CLDS/FOG AS
WINDS ARE DECOUPLING FM ERLR.

AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...TABER







000
FXUS61 KALY 290520
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONG
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER MAINE AND IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SKIES . ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. UPDATED WINDS USING
A BLEND FROM THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE AREA...SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVER CANADA. FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE VFR FOR THE VALLEY TAF SITES...BUT REMAIN IFR AT KPSF
THANKS TO LINGERING LOW STRATUS.  AS LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT KPSF BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. W-NW WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS...WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO DISSIPATE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALL FLOOD WARNINGS EXPIRED OR WHERE CANCELLED EARLIER.

EVEN THOUGH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION
WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW WOBBLING
OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEK. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW TRIGGERING CONVECTION WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 290520
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONG
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER MAINE AND IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SKIES . ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. UPDATED WINDS USING
A BLEND FROM THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE AREA...SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVER CANADA. FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE VFR FOR THE VALLEY TAF SITES...BUT REMAIN IFR AT KPSF
THANKS TO LINGERING LOW STRATUS.  AS LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT KPSF BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. W-NW WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS...WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO DISSIPATE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALL FLOOD WARNINGS EXPIRED OR WHERE CANCELLED EARLIER.

EVEN THOUGH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION
WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW WOBBLING
OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEK. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW TRIGGERING CONVECTION WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290515
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY DRYING UP
WITH CLEARING SKIES ALREADING INTO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP AROUND
BY DAY BREAK. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A FEW SPOT
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290515
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY DRYING UP
WITH CLEARING SKIES ALREADING INTO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP AROUND
BY DAY BREAK. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A FEW SPOT
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 290239
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1039 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW
(FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAS LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE
NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND
ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A
FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 290239
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1039 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW
(FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAS LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE
NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND
ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A
FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER






000
FXUS61 KBTV 290238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW
(FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAVE LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE
NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND
ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A
FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW
(FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAVE LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE
NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND
ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A
FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW
(FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAVE LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE
NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND
ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A
FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW
(FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAVE LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE
NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND
ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A
FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER








000
FXUS61 KALY 290202
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO
TRACK FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  AS SEEN IN THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
KBUF AND HERE...THE INVERSION NEAR H750 MAY INHIBIT TOO MUCH
CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS WE WILL DELAY THIS PROGRESS UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...JUST MODIFIED HOURLY VALUES AND POPS AS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO SOME IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN AND LOWER STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP.  THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TRACK FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  A
WEST-NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS
10KTS OR LESS.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING /MAY BE A LITTLE DELAYED
AT KPSF WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS/ AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
REPORTS AND RIVER GAGE AT ROCKINGHAM IN NORTHERN WINDHAM COUNTY
EXPERIENCED FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING.  COMBINATION OF TRAINING
CONVECTION AND NEARLY SATURATED GROUND RESULTED IN THE RAPID RISE OF
WATER.  AS OF 10 PM...PER COORDINATION AND RIVER GAGE...THE RIVER
LEVEL HAS JUST DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.  HOWEVER...WATER LEVELS
REMAIN ELEVATED AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A
LITTLE LONGER.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS/BGM
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS/BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 290202
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO
TRACK FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  AS SEEN IN THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
KBUF AND HERE...THE INVERSION NEAR H750 MAY INHIBIT TOO MUCH
CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS WE WILL DELAY THIS PROGRESS UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...JUST MODIFIED HOURLY VALUES AND POPS AS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO SOME IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN AND LOWER STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP.  THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TRACK FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  A
WEST-NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS
10KTS OR LESS.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING /MAY BE A LITTLE DELAYED
AT KPSF WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS/ AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
REPORTS AND RIVER GAGE AT ROCKINGHAM IN NORTHERN WINDHAM COUNTY
EXPERIENCED FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING.  COMBINATION OF TRAINING
CONVECTION AND NEARLY SATURATED GROUND RESULTED IN THE RAPID RISE OF
WATER.  AS OF 10 PM...PER COORDINATION AND RIVER GAGE...THE RIVER
LEVEL HAS JUST DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.  HOWEVER...WATER LEVELS
REMAIN ELEVATED AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A
LITTLE LONGER.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS/BGM
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS/BGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 282327
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS NORTHERN NY/VT AND INCREASE WINDS ACRS THE CPV.
SFC LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR EXETER NH WL CONT TO MOVE QUICKLY NE
INTO EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WHILE POTENT 5H VORT AND BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION ZN DEVELOPS FROM WESTERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLW DOWN THE CPV WL
RESULT IN CONTINUED RAINFALL ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE CPV
AND WESTERN SLOPES THRU 06Z TONIGHT. KBTV HAS MEASURED 0.40 LAST
HR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. KCXX VAD SHOWS 925MB WINDS OF 30
KNOTS FROM THE NORTH...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL CONVERGENCE
ACRS THE CPV. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINFALL INTENSITY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY FLOOD RELATED PROBLEMS. MEANWHILE...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND ULVL SUPPORT WL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFT 06Z AND
PRECIP WL BECOME SCATTERED. CONTINUED TO MENTION 100% POPS ACRS
THE NORTHERN CWA WITH CHC/LOW LIKELY SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SCHC FOR
THUNDER THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL NOTING A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKE ACRS THIS REGION.

JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE SFC LOW
TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS AFTN THE SFC LOW
JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A
FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500
AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE
THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR STORMS THRU 00Z THIS
EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN
BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE EASTERN
DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 282327
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS NORTHERN NY/VT AND INCREASE WINDS ACRS THE CPV.
SFC LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR EXETER NH WL CONT TO MOVE QUICKLY NE
INTO EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WHILE POTENT 5H VORT AND BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION ZN DEVELOPS FROM WESTERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLW DOWN THE CPV WL
RESULT IN CONTINUED RAINFALL ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE CPV
AND WESTERN SLOPES THRU 06Z TONIGHT. KBTV HAS MEASURED 0.40 LAST
HR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. KCXX VAD SHOWS 925MB WINDS OF 30
KNOTS FROM THE NORTH...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL CONVERGENCE
ACRS THE CPV. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINFALL INTENSITY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY FLOOD RELATED PROBLEMS. MEANWHILE...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND ULVL SUPPORT WL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFT 06Z AND
PRECIP WL BECOME SCATTERED. CONTINUED TO MENTION 100% POPS ACRS
THE NORTHERN CWA WITH CHC/LOW LIKELY SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SCHC FOR
THUNDER THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL NOTING A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKE ACRS THIS REGION.

JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE SFC LOW
TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS AFTN THE SFC LOW
JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A
FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500
AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE
THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR STORMS THRU 00Z THIS
EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN
BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE EASTERN
DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 282254
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
654 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS NORTHERN NY/VT AND INCREASE WINDS ACRS THE CPV.
SFC LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR EXETER NH WL CONT TO MOVE QUICKLY NE
INTO EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WHILE POTENT 5H VORT AND BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION ZN DEVELOPS FROM WESTERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLW DOWN THE CPV WL
RESULT IN CONTINUED RAINFALL ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE CPV
AND WESTERN SLOPES THRU 06Z TONIGHT. KBTV HAS MEASURED 0.40 LAST
HR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. KCXX VAD SHOWS 925MB WINDS OF 30
KNOTS FROM THE NORTH...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL CONVERGENCE
ACRS THE CPV. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINFALL INTENSITY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY FLOOD RELATED PROBLEMS. MEANWHILE...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND ULVL SUPPORT WL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFT 06Z AND
PRECIP WL BECOME SCATTERED. CONTINUED TO MENTION 100% POPS ACRS
THE NORTHERN CWA WITH CHC/LOW LIKELY SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SCHC FOR
THUNDER THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL NOTING A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKE ACRS THIS REGION.

JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE SFC LOW
TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS AFTN THE SFC LOW
JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A
FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500
AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE
THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR STORMS THRU 00Z THIS
EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN
BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE EASTERN
DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 282254
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
654 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS NORTHERN NY/VT AND INCREASE WINDS ACRS THE CPV.
SFC LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR EXETER NH WL CONT TO MOVE QUICKLY NE
INTO EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WHILE POTENT 5H VORT AND BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION ZN DEVELOPS FROM WESTERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLW DOWN THE CPV WL
RESULT IN CONTINUED RAINFALL ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE CPV
AND WESTERN SLOPES THRU 06Z TONIGHT. KBTV HAS MEASURED 0.40 LAST
HR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. KCXX VAD SHOWS 925MB WINDS OF 30
KNOTS FROM THE NORTH...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL CONVERGENCE
ACRS THE CPV. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINFALL INTENSITY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY FLOOD RELATED PROBLEMS. MEANWHILE...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND ULVL SUPPORT WL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFT 06Z AND
PRECIP WL BECOME SCATTERED. CONTINUED TO MENTION 100% POPS ACRS
THE NORTHERN CWA WITH CHC/LOW LIKELY SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SCHC FOR
THUNDER THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL NOTING A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKE ACRS THIS REGION.

JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE SFC LOW
TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS AFTN THE SFC LOW
JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A
FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500
AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE
THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR STORMS THRU 00Z THIS
EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN
BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE EASTERN
DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER










000
FXUS61 KALY 282140
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
540 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED. RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDER STILL IN PARTS OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
SPINNING EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST
STILL REFLECTS CURRENT TRENDS SO VERY LITTLE TO ADJUST THROUGH
THIS EVENING EXCEPT TO TAKE OUT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY
RAIN WORDING.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 282133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
533 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 522 PM EDT MONDAY...JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT
IN THE SFC LOW TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS
AFTN THE SFC LOW JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED
OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE
WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500 AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED
ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR
STORMS THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL
BECOME TRRN DRIVEN BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE
EASTERN DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER














000
FXUS61 KBTV 282133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
533 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 522 PM EDT MONDAY...JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT
IN THE SFC LOW TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS
AFTN THE SFC LOW JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED
OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE
WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500 AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED
ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR
STORMS THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL
BECOME TRRN DRIVEN BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE
EASTERN DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER













000
FXUS61 KALY 282006
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD STILL
TRACKING EAST AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE IN AN
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT HIGH OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS WHERE SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...









000
FXUS61 KBTV 281959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...










000
FXUS61 KALY 281949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
349 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD STILL
TRACKING EAST AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE IN AN
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT HIGH OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS WHERE SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 281949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
349 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD STILL
TRACKING EAST AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE IN AN
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT HIGH OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS WHERE SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 281949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
349 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD STILL
TRACKING EAST AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE IN AN
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT HIGH OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS WHERE SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 281949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
349 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD STILL
TRACKING EAST AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE IN AN
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT HIGH OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS WHERE SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281902
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
302 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH BOX #452 FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. LATEST LAPS SHOW SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG ACRS THIS
REGION. THINKING THE BEST CHC FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE
ACRS RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY.
WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH
HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS
CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO
MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS
REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET
BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED 5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL
THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE
70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING
IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281817
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
217 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH BOX #452 FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. LATEST LAPS SHOW SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG ACRS THIS
REGION. THINKING THE BEST CHC FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE
ACRS RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY.
WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH
HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS
CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO
MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS
REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET
BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED 5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL
THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE
70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING
IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281817
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
217 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH BOX #452 FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. LATEST LAPS SHOW SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG ACRS THIS
REGION. THINKING THE BEST CHC FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE
ACRS RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY.
WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH
HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS
CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO
MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS
REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET
BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED 5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL
THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE
70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING
IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281817
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
217 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH BOX #452 FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. LATEST LAPS SHOW SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG ACRS THIS
REGION. THINKING THE BEST CHC FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE
ACRS RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY.
WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH
HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS
CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO
MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS
REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET
BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED 5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL
THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE
70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING
IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281817
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
217 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH BOX #452 FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. LATEST LAPS SHOW SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG ACRS THIS
REGION. THINKING THE BEST CHC FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE
ACRS RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY.
WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH
HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS
CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO
MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS
REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET
BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED 5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL
THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE
70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING
IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KALY 281816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
216 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...INCLUDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 281816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
216 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...INCLUDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281757
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281757
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS
WESTERN/NORTHERN NY. WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING
SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE
VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35
KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED
5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO
MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS
NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.
TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE 70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS
WESTERN/NORTHERN NY. WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING
SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE
VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35
KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED
5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO
MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS
NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.
TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE 70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281732
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS
WESTERN/NORTHERN NY. WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING
SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE
VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35
KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED
5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO
MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS
NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.
TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE 70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING
MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING
10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE
WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME
G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER
TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281732
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS
WESTERN/NORTHERN NY. WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING
SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE
VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35
KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED
5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO
MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS
NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.
TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE 70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING
MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING
10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE
WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME
G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER
TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON









000
FXUS61 KALY 281723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 281723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 281723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 281723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 281519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1119 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1115 AM...STEADIEST RAIN/SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHWEST WARREN COUNTY. ALSO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRE BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM
COUNTIES. ANOTHER AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP
JUST WEST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA IN CENTRAL NY. NEAREST
LIGHTNING IS TO OUR WEST...JUST SOUTH OF SYRACUSE NY. BREAKS IN
OVERCAST STARTING TO DEVELOP FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. GOING FORECAST
HAS TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 70S OVER MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY LATER TODAY. BASED ON 12Z ALBANY/BUFFALO
SOUNDINGS...THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST HI RES MODELS SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
1 AND 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE ACTION OVER BY
10 PM.

MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR TODAY BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE PICTURES AND RADAR ECHOES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1119 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1115 AM...STEADIEST RAIN/SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHWEST WARREN COUNTY. ALSO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRE BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM
COUNTIES. ANOTHER AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP
JUST WEST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA IN CENTRAL NY. NEAREST
LIGHTNING IS TO OUR WEST...JUST SOUTH OF SYRACUSE NY. BREAKS IN
OVERCAST STARTING TO DEVELOP FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. GOING FORECAST
HAS TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 70S OVER MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY LATER TODAY. BASED ON 12Z ALBANY/BUFFALO
SOUNDINGS...THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST HI RES MODELS SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
1 AND 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE ACTION OVER BY
10 PM.

MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR TODAY BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE PICTURES AND RADAR ECHOES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281426
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1026 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS
AND INCREASE 6HR QPF GRIDS ACRS CENTRAL VT AND LWR CT RIVER
VALLEY. HAVE NOTICED 1 HR QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.30 AND 0.60"
ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIFTING ACRS
CENTRAL VT ATTM. RUTLAND RECEIVED 0.44"...WITH NORTH HARTLAND
LAKE HADS REPORTING A 3 HR TOTAL OF 1.16 INCHES. THIS BAND WL CONT
TO MOVE NORTH AND IMPACT ALL OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT THRU 18Z
TODAY. ALSO...A BATCH OF MODERATE RAIN WL CONT ACRS NORTHERN
NY...INCLUDING THE SLV WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL RATES. EXPECTING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP ACRS SOUTHERN VT ZNS LATE THIS
MORNING...WHICH WL PROVIDE REGION WITH TEMPORARY BREAK IN
ACTION...BUT AS POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACRS
CENTRAL NY APPROACHES THE REGION...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS WL REDEVELOP BY NOON TODAY. THESE STORMS WL BE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WL
BE LIKELY. LATEST HRRR MODELS SHOWS THIS IDEA VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO DEVELOPING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST 0 TO 6
KM SHEAR...TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW A
TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING...MAINLY ACRS RUTLAND/WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES.
WL WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND RAINFALL RATES VERY CAREFULLY THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...
TEMPS WL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE L60S
DACKS TO M70S LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY
FOLLOWS...

ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING
MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING
10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE
WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME
G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER
TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281426
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1026 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS
AND INCREASE 6HR QPF GRIDS ACRS CENTRAL VT AND LWR CT RIVER
VALLEY. HAVE NOTICED 1 HR QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.30 AND 0.60"
ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIFTING ACRS
CENTRAL VT ATTM. RUTLAND RECEIVED 0.44"...WITH NORTH HARTLAND
LAKE HADS REPORTING A 3 HR TOTAL OF 1.16 INCHES. THIS BAND WL CONT
TO MOVE NORTH AND IMPACT ALL OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT THRU 18Z
TODAY. ALSO...A BATCH OF MODERATE RAIN WL CONT ACRS NORTHERN
NY...INCLUDING THE SLV WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL RATES. EXPECTING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP ACRS SOUTHERN VT ZNS LATE THIS
MORNING...WHICH WL PROVIDE REGION WITH TEMPORARY BREAK IN
ACTION...BUT AS POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACRS
CENTRAL NY APPROACHES THE REGION...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS WL REDEVELOP BY NOON TODAY. THESE STORMS WL BE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WL
BE LIKELY. LATEST HRRR MODELS SHOWS THIS IDEA VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO DEVELOPING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST 0 TO 6
KM SHEAR...TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW A
TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING...MAINLY ACRS RUTLAND/WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES.
WL WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND RAINFALL RATES VERY CAREFULLY THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...
TEMPS WL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE L60S
DACKS TO M70S LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY
FOLLOWS...

ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING
MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING
10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE
WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME
G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER
TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON









000
FXUS61 KALY 281304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
904 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK TODAY...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

AS OF 855 AM...UPDATE TO REMOVE LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
IN LINE WITH RADAR ECHOES. CHANGED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGHER POPS DURING AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVERHEAD THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS...
THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION
VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...IAA LONG
TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
904 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK TODAY...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

AS OF 855 AM...UPDATE TO REMOVE LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
IN LINE WITH RADAR ECHOES. CHANGED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGHER POPS DURING AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVERHEAD THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS...
THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION
VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...IAA LONG
TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
904 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK TODAY...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

AS OF 855 AM...UPDATE TO REMOVE LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
IN LINE WITH RADAR ECHOES. CHANGED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGHER POPS DURING AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVERHEAD THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS...
THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION
VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...IAA LONG
TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
904 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK TODAY...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

AS OF 855 AM...UPDATE TO REMOVE LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
IN LINE WITH RADAR ECHOES. CHANGED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGHER POPS DURING AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVERHEAD THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS...
THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION
VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...IAA LONG
TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
745 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VT BUT LIKELY TO BE
TEMPORARY WITH VISBYS IMPROVING SOME AS RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PIVOT
NORTHWARD...AND IS NEARING THE BURLINGTON/MONTPELIER/SARANAC LAKE
AREA. HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDER APPROACHING THE MA/VT BORDER WILL MOVE
INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A BREAK IN MODERATE RAIN WITH MORE CELLULAR/SHOWERY
ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE
TO WATCH AND SEE IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY. IN FACT...RECENT HRRR AND HI-RES
ARW SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM ALY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT
BETWEEN 18-21Z.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY FOLLOWS...

ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING
MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING
10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE
WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME
G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER
TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
745 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VT BUT LIKELY TO BE
TEMPORARY WITH VISBYS IMPROVING SOME AS RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PIVOT
NORTHWARD...AND IS NEARING THE BURLINGTON/MONTPELIER/SARANAC LAKE
AREA. HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDER APPROACHING THE MA/VT BORDER WILL MOVE
INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A BREAK IN MODERATE RAIN WITH MORE CELLULAR/SHOWERY
ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE
TO WATCH AND SEE IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY. IN FACT...RECENT HRRR AND HI-RES
ARW SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM ALY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT
BETWEEN 18-21Z.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY FOLLOWS...

ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING
MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING
10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE
WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME
G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER
TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281105
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
705 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VT BUT LIKELY TO BE
TEMPORARY WITH VISBYS IMPROVING SOME AS RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PIVOT
NORTHWARD...AND IS NEARING THE BURLINGTON/MONTPELIER/SARANAC LAKE
AREA. HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDER APPROACHING THE MA/VT BORDER WILL MOVE
INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A BREAK IN MODERATE RAIN WITH MORE CELLULAR/SHOWERY
ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE
TO WATCH AND SEE IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY. IN FACT...RECENT HRRR AND HI-RES
ARW SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM ALY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT
BETWEEN 18-21Z.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY FOLLOWS...

ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON











000
FXUS61 KBTV 281105
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
705 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VT BUT LIKELY TO BE
TEMPORARY WITH VISBYS IMPROVING SOME AS RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PIVOT
NORTHWARD...AND IS NEARING THE BURLINGTON/MONTPELIER/SARANAC LAKE
AREA. HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDER APPROACHING THE MA/VT BORDER WILL MOVE
INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A BREAK IN MODERATE RAIN WITH MORE CELLULAR/SHOWERY
ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE
TO WATCH AND SEE IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY. IN FACT...RECENT HRRR AND HI-RES
ARW SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM ALY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT
BETWEEN 18-21Z.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY FOLLOWS...

ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON












000
FXUS61 KALY 281042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A POTENT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD AND
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION
VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A POTENT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD AND
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION
VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 280843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
443 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A
POTENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD.

THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE
TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO
LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER
"SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 280843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
443 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A
POTENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD.

THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE
TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO
LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER
"SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 280843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
443 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A
POTENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD.

THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE
TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO
LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER
"SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 280843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
443 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A
POTENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD.

THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE
TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO
LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER
"SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 280822
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
422 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY...FEATURING A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS IN EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN
AND RELATED DEGREE OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE
THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHWARD...ALIGNED ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT
BAND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES.
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN
`DACKS AND EAST-FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN
STEM RIVERS ARE RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES
TODAY...WITH PERHAPS MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER
AND ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A
HEAVY MODEL BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO
1.5" ARE SHOWN FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND HIGHER PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON











000
FXUS61 KBTV 280822
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
422 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY...FEATURING A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS IN EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN
AND RELATED DEGREE OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE
THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHWARD...ALIGNED ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT
BAND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES.
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN
`DACKS AND EAST-FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN
STEM RIVERS ARE RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES
TODAY...WITH PERHAPS MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER
AND ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A
HEAVY MODEL BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO
1.5" ARE SHOWN FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND HIGHER PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON












000
FXUS61 KBTV 280815
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
415 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY...FEATURING A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS IN EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL
PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES
SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHWARD...ALIGNED ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT
BAND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES.
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN
`DACKS AND EAST-FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN
STEM RIVERS ARE RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES
TODAY...WITH PERHAPS MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER
AND ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A
HEAVY MODEL BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO
1.5" ARE SHOWN FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND HIGHER PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON










000
FXUS61 KBTV 280614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
214 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM
TODAY`S RAINFALL...I`VE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
I`VE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX AFTER MIDNIGHT TO BETTER SHOW TIMING OF
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOW IMPACTING SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS AREA OF MODERATE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY - ADIRONDACKS - SOUTHERN VT AREA AROUND 08-09Z. SHOWN HIGH
POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) AND CONTINUING TO TAPER UPWARD
THROUGH 12Z. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT THUNDER`S ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...IN ZONE OF MID-/UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
APPROACHING WESTERN PA. THAT SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL OFFSET THE
SCANT INSTABILITY AND KEEP THUNDER GOING AS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTH. SO I`VE KEPT CHANCE THUNDER TIED TO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS.

TEMPS LOOK REASONABLY GOOD WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENT HERE TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DECREASE NOTICEABLY
TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...SISSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 280614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
214 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM
TODAY`S RAINFALL...I`VE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
I`VE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX AFTER MIDNIGHT TO BETTER SHOW TIMING OF
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOW IMPACTING SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS AREA OF MODERATE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY - ADIRONDACKS - SOUTHERN VT AREA AROUND 08-09Z. SHOWN HIGH
POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) AND CONTINUING TO TAPER UPWARD
THROUGH 12Z. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT THUNDER`S ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...IN ZONE OF MID-/UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
APPROACHING WESTERN PA. THAT SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL OFFSET THE
SCANT INSTABILITY AND KEEP THUNDER GOING AS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTH. SO I`VE KEPT CHANCE THUNDER TIED TO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS.

TEMPS LOOK REASONABLY GOOD WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENT HERE TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DECREASE NOTICEABLY
TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...SISSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 280614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
214 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM
TODAY`S RAINFALL...I`VE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
I`VE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX AFTER MIDNIGHT TO BETTER SHOW TIMING OF
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOW IMPACTING SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS AREA OF MODERATE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY - ADIRONDACKS - SOUTHERN VT AREA AROUND 08-09Z. SHOWN HIGH
POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) AND CONTINUING TO TAPER UPWARD
THROUGH 12Z. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT THUNDER`S ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...IN ZONE OF MID-/UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
APPROACHING WESTERN PA. THAT SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL OFFSET THE
SCANT INSTABILITY AND KEEP THUNDER GOING AS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTH. SO I`VE KEPT CHANCE THUNDER TIED TO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS.

TEMPS LOOK REASONABLY GOOD WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENT HERE TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DECREASE NOTICEABLY
TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...SISSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 280614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
214 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM
TODAY`S RAINFALL...I`VE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
I`VE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX AFTER MIDNIGHT TO BETTER SHOW TIMING OF
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOW IMPACTING SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS AREA OF MODERATE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY - ADIRONDACKS - SOUTHERN VT AREA AROUND 08-09Z. SHOWN HIGH
POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) AND CONTINUING TO TAPER UPWARD
THROUGH 12Z. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT THUNDER`S ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...IN ZONE OF MID-/UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
APPROACHING WESTERN PA. THAT SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL OFFSET THE
SCANT INSTABILITY AND KEEP THUNDER GOING AS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTH. SO I`VE KEPT CHANCE THUNDER TIED TO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS.

TEMPS LOOK REASONABLY GOOD WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENT HERE TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DECREASE NOTICEABLY
TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...SISSON








000
FXUS61 KALY 280536
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 280536
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 280536
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 280536
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 280513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM
TODAY`S RAINFALL...I`VE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
I`VE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX AFTER MIDNIGHT TO BETTER SHOW TIMING OF
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOW IMPACTING SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS AREA OF MODERATE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY - ADIRONDACKS - SOUTHERN VT AREA AROUND 08-09Z. SHOWN HIGH
POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) AND CONTINUING TO TAPER UPWARD
THROUGH 12Z. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT THUNDER`S ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...IN ZONE OF MID-/UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
APPROACHING WESTERN PA. THAT SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL OFFSET THE
SCANT INSTABILITY AND KEEP THUNDER GOING AS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTH. SO I`VE KEPT CHANCE THUNDER TIED TO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS.

TEMPS LOOK REASONABLY GOOD WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENT HERE TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DECREASE NOTICEABLY
TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE AT KPBG...KBTV...KSLK...AND KMPV.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE SHARPLY AFTER 03Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP. COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST
TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER
POSSIBLE AT VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 280513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM
TODAY`S RAINFALL...I`VE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
I`VE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX AFTER MIDNIGHT TO BETTER SHOW TIMING OF
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOW IMPACTING SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS AREA OF MODERATE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY - ADIRONDACKS - SOUTHERN VT AREA AROUND 08-09Z. SHOWN HIGH
POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) AND CONTINUING TO TAPER UPWARD
THROUGH 12Z. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT THUNDER`S ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...IN ZONE OF MID-/UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
APPROACHING WESTERN PA. THAT SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL OFFSET THE
SCANT INSTABILITY AND KEEP THUNDER GOING AS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTH. SO I`VE KEPT CHANCE THUNDER TIED TO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS.

TEMPS LOOK REASONABLY GOOD WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENT HERE TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DECREASE NOTICEABLY
TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE AT KPBG...KBTV...KSLK...AND KMPV.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE SHARPLY AFTER 03Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP. COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST
TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER
POSSIBLE AT VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 280513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM
TODAY`S RAINFALL...I`VE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
I`VE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX AFTER MIDNIGHT TO BETTER SHOW TIMING OF
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOW IMPACTING SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS AREA OF MODERATE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY - ADIRONDACKS - SOUTHERN VT AREA AROUND 08-09Z. SHOWN HIGH
POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) AND CONTINUING TO TAPER UPWARD
THROUGH 12Z. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT THUNDER`S ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...IN ZONE OF MID-/UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
APPROACHING WESTERN PA. THAT SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL OFFSET THE
SCANT INSTABILITY AND KEEP THUNDER GOING AS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTH. SO I`VE KEPT CHANCE THUNDER TIED TO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS.

TEMPS LOOK REASONABLY GOOD WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENT HERE TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DECREASE NOTICEABLY
TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE AT KPBG...KBTV...KSLK...AND KMPV.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE SHARPLY AFTER 03Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP. COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST
TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER
POSSIBLE AT VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 280513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM
TODAY`S RAINFALL...I`VE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
I`VE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX AFTER MIDNIGHT TO BETTER SHOW TIMING OF
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOW IMPACTING SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS AREA OF MODERATE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY - ADIRONDACKS - SOUTHERN VT AREA AROUND 08-09Z. SHOWN HIGH
POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) AND CONTINUING TO TAPER UPWARD
THROUGH 12Z. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT THUNDER`S ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...IN ZONE OF MID-/UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
APPROACHING WESTERN PA. THAT SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL OFFSET THE
SCANT INSTABILITY AND KEEP THUNDER GOING AS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTH. SO I`VE KEPT CHANCE THUNDER TIED TO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS.

TEMPS LOOK REASONABLY GOOD WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENT HERE TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DECREASE NOTICEABLY
TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE AT KPBG...KBTV...KSLK...AND KMPV.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE SHARPLY AFTER 03Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP. COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST
TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER
POSSIBLE AT VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON









000
FXUS61 KALY 280506
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS











000
FXUS61 KALY 280506
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KALY 280504
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 280504
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







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