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000
FXUS61 KALY 161424
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1024 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL FEEL LIKE MID MARCH WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL. PLUS WE HAD 1/2
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PLEASE
REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. WILL HAVE GOOD MIXING
SO WINDS WILL BE RATHER BRISK AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS FROM THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CREST TODAY OR HAVE CRESTED.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/SND/HWJIV







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 161322
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
922 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 921 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO KEEP A CHC
FLURRIES/SHSN GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. HIGHEST COVERAGE TO
OCCUR IN VERMONT. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
CLEARING PROCESS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY UNDER MODERATELY GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THUS
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
BECOMING VFR THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV/RUT/MSS. AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
20-25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY
OF THE LARGER RIVERS ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE
CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KALY 161213
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
813 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...STILL TRACKING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST BUT THESE WERE DIMINISHING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION...TEENS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS IN OTHER HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS ...20S ACROSS MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF AREAS.

MOST OF OUR AREA RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4
INCH RANGE. A BAND OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SET UP ACROSS LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE UP TO LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES HAVE FALLEN. PLEASE REFER
TO PUBLIC STATEMENTS FOR ALL OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS.

WE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION THAT
WILL RUN THROUGH MORNING DRIVE (800 AM) FOR STANDING FROZEN SLUSH
AND BLACK ICE.

WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY BUT COLD DAY FOR TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
GENERALLY DECREASE. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY NEAR OR EVEN A
LITTLE BELOW -10C. EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING AND GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
(MIXED WITH FAIR WEATHER CU)...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE NO HIGHER
THAN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVEN IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 40 TO 45
RANGE. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...THANKS TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING
WIND...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THESE VALUES ARE PERFECTLY NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...BUT OVER 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND 10 TO 25 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS FROM THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 161137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 733 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEARING CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE
RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER VERMONT. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SCENARIO AND TONED BACK ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO JUST THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS PRONOUNCED DRYING TAKES PLACE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THUS
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
BECOMING VFR THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV/RUT/MSS. AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
20-25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY
OF THE LARGER RIVERS ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE
CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON






000
FXUS61 KBTV 161133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 733 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEARING CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE
RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER VERMONT. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SCENARIO AND TONED BACK ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO JUST THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS PRONOUNCED DRYING TAKES PLACE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
SNOW HAS ENDED AT MOST TAF SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF MPV AND SLK.
BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE SNOW ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR
CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN BECOMING
VFR TOWARDS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP BETWEEN ONE AND TWO
INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY OF THE LARGER RIVERS
ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL
RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON








000
FXUS61 KALY 161036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TODAY BUT IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH
ALONG WITH A BRISK WIND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
WITH TIME WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...STILL TRACKING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST BUT THESE WERE DIMINISHING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION...TEENS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS IN OTHER HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS ...20S ACROSS MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF AREAS.

MOST OF OUR AREA RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4
INCH RANGE. A BAND OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SET UP ACROSS LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE UP TO LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES HAVE FALLEN. PLEASE REFER
TO PUBLIC STATEMENTS FOR ALL OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS.

WE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION THAT
WILL RUN THROUGH MORNING DRIVE (800 AM) FOR STANDING FROZEN SLUSH
AND BLACK ICE.

WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY BUT COLD DAY FOR TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
GENERALLY DECREASE. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY NEAR OR EVEN A
LITTLE BELOW -10C. EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING AND GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
(MIXED WITH FAIR WEATHER CU)...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE NO HIGHER
THAN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVEN IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 40 TO 45
RANGE. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...THANKS TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING
WIND...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THESE VALUES ARE PERFECTLY NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...BUT OVER 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND 10 TO 25 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 160850
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TODAY BUT IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH
ALONG WITH A BRISK WIND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
WITH TIME WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES
AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS AND
GREATER CAPITAL REGION. THIS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENCE LOWERS...AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME
MORE ANTICYLONIC.

TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
REGION...TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS
IN OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ...20S ACROSS MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF
AREAS...UPPER 20S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LOWER 30S MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

MOST OF OUR AREA RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4
INCH RANGE. A BAND OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SET UP ACROSS LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE UP TO LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES HAVE FALLEN.

INITIALLY MOST ASPHALT SURFACES REMAINED WET. HOWEVER...IN THE CASE
OF HEAVIER SNOW...THEY TOO BECAME SLUSH COVERED. ANY STANDING SLUSH
AND WET SPOTS WILL FREEZE SOLID. WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION THAT WILL RUN THROUGH MORNING
DRIVE (800 AM).

WE WILL LIKELY DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES THROUGH
SUNRISE...BOTTOMING OUT WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES...TEENS
HIGHER TERRAIN.


WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY BUT COLD DAY FOR TODAY. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STAY NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW -10C. EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING
AND GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (MIXED WITH FAIR WEATHER
CU)...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE NO HIGHER THAN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVEN IN THE VALLEY AREAS...HIGH
WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 40 TO 45 RANGE. TO THE LEE OF THE
CATSKILLS...THANKS TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING WIND...HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY.

THESE VALUES ARE PERFECTLY NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...BUT OVER 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND 10 TO 25 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON THE
GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS RECORD
BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 160748
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...BULK OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION HAS
EXITED THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...AND WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
SNOW HAS ENDED AT MOST TAF SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF MPV AND SLK.
BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE SNOW ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR
CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN BECOMING
VFR TOWARDS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP BETWEEN ONE AND TWO
INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY OF THE LARGER RIVERS
ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL
RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KALY 160728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
330 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LEFTOVER SNOW WILL END BEFORE DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL LIKELY TURN TO BLACK ICE. THE SUN WILL RETURN TODAY
WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THE SNOW SHIELD HAS MOVED OUT OF THERE AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF
THE EASTERN AREAS. THERE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND EVEN GREATER
CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

STILL CONCERNED IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S...AND
MANY ROADS WET OR SLUSHY...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BE ICY FOR THE
MORNING DRIVE. EARLIER...WE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ADDRESSING THIS CONCERN...AND WE MAY ISSUE ANOTHER RIGHT BEFORE THE
MORNING DRIVE COMMENCES.

LOWS BY DAWN WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH
AND EASTWARD...TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A GUSTY WEST WIND 15 TO
25 MPH WILL MAKE THESE VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR
AREA. LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL
RISES TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS
WILL RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...VTK
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND










000
FXUS61 KALY 160554
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL LIKELY TURN TO BLACK ICE. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...ISSUED A SHORT FUSED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF OVER 3 INCHES AND RADARS INDICATED THAT 1-2+
INCHES OF SNOW COULD BE FALLING IN CENTRAL LITCHFIELD COUNTY (DBZ
VALUES OVER 30 WERE COMMON) ALTHOUGH SOME OF THAT COULD BE SLEET.
WILL MONITOR AND SEE IF WE HAVE TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING. IT SEEMS TO MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND SHOULD BE GONE
AFTER 200 AM.

STEADY SNOW PULLING OUT OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES. SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WERE STILL SEEN COMING DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO RECEIVE 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW...POSSIBLY A
FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION HAVE AVERAGED 1-4
INCHES...GENERALLY HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM HERE ON IN SHOULD GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS.

STILL CONCERNED IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S...AND
MANY ROADS WET OR SLUSHY...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ICY. WE
HAVE ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ADDRESSING THIS CONCERN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH AND EASTWARD...TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A GUSTY WEST WIND
15 TO 25 MPH WILL MAKE THESE VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER AT
TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR
AREA. LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL
RISES TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS
WILL RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...VTK
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND








000
FXUS61 KBTV 160541
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT A DRY THOUGH CHILLY
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 30S UNDER
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. AFTER A COLD NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1254 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT
EXISTS OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. THE SNOW IS MOVING EAST AND WILL BE
COMING TO AN END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT NOT UNTIL ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW FALLS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL
AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE REGION. THUS MAINLY LOOKING AT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. QUITE CHILLY HOWEVER TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) AS BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE INTO THE 30S...SO KEEP THOSE JACKETS HANDY.
THEN CLEAR/CALM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. LOWS
BY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER NRN MTN HOLLOWS.

BY THURSDAY START OF RAPID MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE BEGINS AS
HIGH SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. LATE DAY HIGHS UPPER
40S TO MID 50S...THEN 20S TO LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER
CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS PLEASANT ON
FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOOKING AT A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR
MOST. UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SWING OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE TRANSFERRING OFFSHORE...SO NOT
LOOKING AT A MAJOR RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40 WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW WILL EXIT SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A DEFAULT RIDGE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WHAT SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOTHING REAL NOTEWORTHY
AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY GENERALLY 50S AND LOWS IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
SNOW HAS ENDED AT MOST TAF SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF MPV AND SLK.
BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE SNOW ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR
CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN BECOMING
VFR TOWARDS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND RESIDUAL HIGH TERRAIN
SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RUNOFF. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT
IS RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK
NOW LIES ABOVE 2000-2500 FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING
CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...CURRENT RAINFALL WILL KEEP...OR PUSH
MANY RIVERS AND SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES
MODERATE FLOOD BY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR
RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY
GOING TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...JMG






000
FXUS61 KALY 160534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL LIKELY TURN TO BLACK ICE. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...ISSUED A SHORT FUSED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF OVER 3 INCHES AND RADARS INDICATED THAT 1-2+
INCHES OF SNOW COULD BE FALLING IN CENTRAL LITCHFIELD COUNTY (DBZ
VALUES OVER 30 WERE COMMON) ALTHOUGH SOME OF THAT COULD BE SLEET.
WILL MONITOR AND SEE IF WE HAVE TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING. IT SEEMS TO MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND SHOULD BE GONE
AFTER 200 AM.

STEADY SNOW PULLING OUT OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES. SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WERE STILL SEEN COMING DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO RECEIVE 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW...POSSIBLY A
FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION HAVE AVERAGED 1-4
INCHES...GENERALLY HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM HERE ON IN SHOULD GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS.

STILL CONCERNED IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S...AND
MANY ROADS WET OR SLUSHY...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ICY. WE
HAVE ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ADDRESSING THIS CONCERN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH AND EASTWARD...TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A GUSTY WEST WIND
15 TO 25 MPH WILL MAKE THESE VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER AT
TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...VTK
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KBTV 160454
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1254 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT A DRY THOUGH CHILLY
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 30S UNDER
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. AFTER A COLD NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1254 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT
EXISTS OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. THE SNOW IS MOVING EAST AND WILL BE
COMING TO AN END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT NOT UNTIL ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW FALLS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL
AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE REGION. THUS MAINLY LOOKING AT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. QUITE
CHILLY HOWEVER TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) AS BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE INTO THE 30S...SO KEEP THOSE JACKETS HANDY. THEN
CLEAR/CALM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. LOWS BY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLDER NRN MTN HOLLOWS.

BY THURSDAY START OF RAPID MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE BEGINS AS HIGH
SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. LATE DAY HIGHS UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...THEN 20S TO LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS PLEASANT ON
FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOOKING AT A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR MOST.
UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SWING OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE TRANSFERRING OFFSHORE...SO NOT
LOOKING AT A MAJOR RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40 WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW WILL EXIT SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A DEFAULT RIDGE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WHAT SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOTHING REAL NOTEWORTHY AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY GENERALLY 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OF VERMONT
THIS EVENING. WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH CHANGEOVER
EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV BY 02Z. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN END FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN
BECOMING VFR TOWARDS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
20-25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND RESIDUAL HIGH TERRAIN
SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RUNOFF. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT
IS RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW
LIES ABOVE 2000-2500 FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING
CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...CURRENT RAINFALL WILL KEEP...OR PUSH
MANY RIVERS AND SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES
MODERATE FLOOD BY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR
RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY
GOING TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...RJS/NF
HYDROLOGY...JMG








000
FXUS61 KALY 160346
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL LIKELY TURN TO BLACK ICE. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1145 PM EDT...SNOW WAS ENDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...WITH PRESUMABLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
HILLTOWNS AND ESPECIALLY ADIRONDACKS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH COULD
LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO.

SO ANYWHERE FROM A COATING TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS...2 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ADIRONDACKS.

OUR BIG CONCERN IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S...AND
MANY ROADS WET OR SLUSHY...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ICY. WE
HAVE ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ADDRESSING THIS CONCERN.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST UPDATED THE TRENDS AND SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
SOME ACCUMULATIONS. DID LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BASED ON THE FACT THAT WE WERE COUPLE DEGREES COLDER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUSTAINED
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH 09Z. COLD AIR IS
CAUSING PTYPE CHANGES FROM RA TO PL AND SN. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION AFTER 06-08Z.  EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR FROM 00Z UNTIL 06Z.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z - 08Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/VTK/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KBTV 160255
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1055 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD COLD RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL SLOWLY END OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT A DRY THOUGH CHILLY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 30S UNDER BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. AFTER A COLD NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF VERMONT
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ISSUING IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
EXCEPT FOR LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHICH WILL SEE CHANGEOVER BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL
NORTHERN AREAS...AND SNOW IS ACCUMULATING. REPORTS RECEIVED TO
THIS POINT ARE GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR TWO...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BEFORE PRECIPITATION QUITS. SNOW
HAS ENDED IN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND LOOK FOR IT END FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA NOW THROUGH 07Z. HAVE RAISED
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. EXPECTING
ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND 3 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS...AND 2
TO 5 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES. DESPITE THE
COOLING...RIVERS RUNNING HIGH WITH MANY IN FLOOD. REFER TO LATEST
FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS TO RIVERS IN YOUR LOCAL AREA AND SEE
HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
WELL QUITE THE WEATHER DAY AS WIDESPREAD FLOODING REMAINS ONGOING
WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CT RIVER BY 6 PM IF NOT SOONER...WITH ANAFRONTAL COLD RAIN/SNOW
LINGERING BY SOME 6-9 HOURS BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY. LATEST GUIDANCE
HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION QUITE WELL SHOWING COLDER AIR WORKING
IN ALOFT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND RAIN MIXING WITH AND
CHANGING TO WET SNOW BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS
SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RISES ON ALREADY HIGH STREAMS/RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO
LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS TO RIVERS IN YOUR LOCAL AREA (SEE
HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW). OTHERWISE...AS P-TYPE TRANSITIONS TO A
WET SNOW...SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. NOTHING
TOO EARTH SHATTERING...BUT QUITE THE CHANGE AFTER YESTERDAY`S NEAR
RECORD HIGHS. AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE VALLEY
FLOORS AND 1-3 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW POINT TOTALS NEAR
4/5 INCHES AT SUMMIT LEVEL. LOWS BY MORNING UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S ACROSS NRN NY...AND LOWER TO MID 20S VT BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE REGION. THUS MAINLY LOOKING AT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. QUITE
CHILLY HOWEVER TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) AS BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE INTO THE 30S...SO KEEP THOSE JACKETS HANDY. THEN
CLEAR/CALM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. LOWS BY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLDER NRN MTN HOLLOWS.

BY THURSDAY START OF RAPID MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE BEGINS AS HIGH
SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. LATE DAY HIGHS UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...THEN 20S TO LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS PLEASANT ON
FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOOKING AT A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR MOST.
UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SWING OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE TRANSFERRING OFFSHORE...SO NOT
LOOKING AT A MAJOR RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40 WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW WILL EXIT SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A DEFAULT RIDGE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WHAT SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOTHING REAL NOTEWORTHY AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY GENERALLY 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OF VERMONT
THIS EVENING. WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH CHANGEOVER
EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV BY 02Z. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN END FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN
BECOMING VFR TOWARDS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
20-25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND RESIDUAL HIGH TERRAIN
SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RUNOFF. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT
IS RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW
LIES ABOVE 2000-2500 FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING
CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...CURRENT RAINFALL WILL KEEP...OR PUSH
MANY RIVERS AND SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES
MODERATE FLOOD BY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR
RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY
GOING TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...RJS/NF
HYDROLOGY...JMG







000
FXUS61 KALY 160146
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
946 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A
GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA NOW. HAVE INCREASED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A TAD BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND LIMITS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN VALLEYS. ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE
SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR
LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY ALL NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUSTAINED
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH 09Z. COLD AIR IS
CAUSING PTYPE CHANGES FROM RA TO PL AND SN. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION AFTER 06-08Z.  EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR FROM 00Z UNTIL 06Z.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z - 08Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...VTK/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 160025
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
825 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD COLD RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL SLOWLY END OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT A DRY THOUGH CHILLY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 30S UNDER BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. AFTER A COLD NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 810 PM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF VERMONT
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ISSUING IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR.
THIS IS RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...WHICH HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
VERMONT...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN WESTERN/NORTHERN VERMONT. COLDER
AIR A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE EAST OF THE GREENS...WHERE CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW WILL OCCUR 02-03Z. STILL LOOKING AT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW
IN THE VALLEYS WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...QUITE A
CHANGE FROM THE WARMTH OF MONDAY INTO EARLY TODAY. DESPITE THE
COOLING...MANY RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE WITH MANY RIVERS NOW IN
FLOOD. REFER TO LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS TO RIVERS IN YOUR
LOCAL AREA AND SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WELL QUITE THE WEATHER DAY AS WIDESPREAD FLOODING REMAINS ONGOING
WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CT RIVER BY 6 PM IF NOT SOONER...WITH ANAFRONTAL COLD RAIN/SNOW
LINGERING BY SOME 6-9 HOURS BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY. LATEST GUIDANCE
HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION QUITE WELL SHOWING COLDER AIR WORKING
IN ALOFT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND RAIN MIXING WITH AND
CHANGING TO WET SNOW BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS
SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RISES ON ALREADY HIGH STREAMS/RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO
LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS TO RIVERS IN YOUR LOCAL AREA (SEE
HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW). OTHERWISE...AS P-TYPE TRANSITIONS TO A
WET SNOW...SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. NOTHING
TOO EARTH SHATTERING...BUT QUITE THE CHANGE AFTER YESTERDAY`S NEAR
RECORD HIGHS. AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE VALLEY
FLOORS AND 1-3 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW POINT TOTALS NEAR
4/5 INCHES AT SUMMIT LEVEL. LOWS BY MORNING UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S ACROSS NRN NY...AND LOWER TO MID 20S VT BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE REGION. THUS MAINLY LOOKING AT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. QUITE
CHILLY HOWEVER TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) AS BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE INTO THE 30S...SO KEEP THOSE JACKETS HANDY. THEN
CLEAR/CALM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. LOWS BY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLDER NRN MTN HOLLOWS.

BY THURSDAY START OF RAPID MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE BEGINS AS HIGH
SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. LATE DAY HIGHS UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...THEN 20S TO LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS PLEASANT ON
FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOOKING AT A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR MOST.
UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SWING OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE TRANSFERRING OFFSHORE...SO NOT
LOOKING AT A MAJOR RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40 WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW WILL EXIT SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A DEFAULT RIDGE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WHAT SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOTHING REAL NOTEWORTHY AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY GENERALLY 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OF VERMONT
THIS EVENING. WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH CHANGEOVER
EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV BY 02Z. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN END FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN
BECOMING VFR TOWARDS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
20-25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND RESIDUAL HIGH TERRAIN
SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RUNOFF. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT
IS RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW
LIES ABOVE 2000-2500 FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING
CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...CURRENT RAINFALL WILL KEEP...OR PUSH
MANY RIVERS AND SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES
MODERATE FLOOD BY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR
RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY
GOING TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...RJS/NF
HYDROLOGY...JMG







000
FXUS61 KALY 160000
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A
GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA NOW...AND WHATEVER MIX IS
OCCURRING IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY 9 PM. JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS BUT LENGTH OF PERIOD OF SNOW AND SNOW
AMOUNTS STILL GENERALLY LOOK IN THE BALL PARK FOR ALL AREAS.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND LIMITS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN VALLEYS. ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE
SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. SPECIAL WEATHER STATMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR
LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY ALL NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUSTAINED
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH 09Z. COLD AIR IS
CAUSING PTYPE CHANGES FROM RA TO PL AND SN. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION AFTER 06-08Z.  EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR FROM 00Z UNTIL 06Z.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z - 08Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 152324
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
724 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A
GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA NOW...AND WHATEVER MIX IS
OCCURRING IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY 9 PM. JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS BUT LENGTH OF PERIOD OF SNOW AND SNOW
AMOUNTS STILL GENERALLY LOOK IN THE BALL PARK FOR ALL AREAS.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND LIMITS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN VALLEYS. ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE
SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. SPECIAL WEATHER STATMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR
LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY ALL NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR AT KPSF.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 152217
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
617 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A
GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING NOW SO QUICK UPDATE FOR THE TIMING OF
THE CHANGEOVER.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DISRUPTS THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES IN VALLEYS.
ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE SNOW CAN
ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALL
NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR AT KPSF.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 152043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A
GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME PRECIPITATION IS LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT.
THERE IS A BREAK BETWEEN THE RAIN AND A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IN
CENTRAL NY...SO THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SPRINKLES AND VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW MIXED BEFORE THE BAND OF SNOW SHIFTS EAST.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DISRUPTS THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES IN VALLEYS.
ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE SNOW CAN
ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALL
NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR AT KPSF.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS











000
FXUS61 KALY 152024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME PRECIPITATION IS LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT.
THERE IS A BREAK BETWEEN THE RAIN AND A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IN
CENTRAL NY...SO THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SPRINKLES AND VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW MIXED BEFORE THE BAND OF SNOW SHIFTS EAST.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DISRUPTS THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES IN VALLEYS.
ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE SNOW CAN
ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALL
NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR AT KPSF.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 151942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD COLD RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL SLOWLY END OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT A DRY THOUGH CHILLY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 30S UNDER BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. AFTER A COLD NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...WELL QUITE THE WEATHER DAY AS WIDESPREAD
FLOODING REMAINS ONGOING WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CT RIVER BY 6 PM IF NOT SOONER...WITH
ANAFRONTAL COLD RAIN/SNOW LINGERING BY SOME 6-9 HOURS BEHIND SFC
BOUNDARY. LATEST GUIDANCE HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION QUITE WELL
SHOWING COLDER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...AND RAIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO WET SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES...WHICH WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RISES ON ALREADY HIGH
STREAMS/RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS
TO RIVERS IN YOUR LOCAL AREA (SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW).
OTHERWISE...AS P-TYPE TRANSITIONS TO A WET SNOW...SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. NOTHING TOO EARTH
SHATTERING...BUT QUITE THE CHANGE AFTER YESTERDAY`S NEAR RECORD
HIGHS. AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE VALLEY FLOORS
AND 1-3 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW POINT TOTALS NEAR 4/5
INCHES AT SUMMIT LEVEL. LOWS BY MORNING UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS NRN NY...AND LOWER TO MID 20S VT BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE REGION. THUS MAINLY LOOKING AT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. QUITE
CHILLY HOWEVER TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) AS BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE INTO THE 30S...SO KEEP THOSE JACKETS HANDY. THEN
CLEAR/CALM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. LOWS BY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLDER NRN MTN HOLLOWS.

BY THURSDAY START OF RAPID MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE BEGINS AS HIGH
SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. LATE DAY HIGHS UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...THEN 20S TO LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS PLEASANT ON
FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOOKING AT A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR MOST.
UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SWING OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE TRANSFERRING OFFSHORE...SO NOT
LOOKING AT A MAJOR RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40 WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW WILL EXIT SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A DEFAULT RIDGE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WHAT SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOTHING REAL NOTEWORTHY AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY GENERALLY 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CURRENTLY. THIS WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH VT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ALONG THE FRONT EXPECT RAPID WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTHWEST AND WIND GUSTS 25-30KTS. MOD TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL BUT BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE FRONT LEAVES THE
AREA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT
RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT KMSS NOW AND
AND REACHING KMPV BY 00Z.

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT THEN IFR TO MVFR
THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS. SNOW TAPERS OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS WITH ONLY SOME VCSH NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SCT CONDITIONS 16-18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND RESIDUAL HIGH TERRAIN
SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RUNOFF. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT
IS RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW
LIES ABOVE 2000-2500 FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING
CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...CURRENT RAINFALL WILL KEEP...OR PUSH
MANY RIVERS AND SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES
MODERATE FLOOD BY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR
RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY
GOING TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...NF
HYDROLOGY...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 151828
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
228 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT
TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND STEADY OVER THE AREA
AND COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 208 PM EDT TUESDAY...DROPPED WIND ADVSY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS OF THE NOONTIME HOUR AS STEADIER RAINFALL HAS ARRIVED IN
THE VALLEY AND INHIBITED MIXING MORE THOROUGHLY. KCXX VWP VALUES
STILL RUNNING FROM 50-60KTS IN THE 2-3 KFT LAYER...BUT THIS SHOULD
REMAIN ALOFT. WATCHING COLD FRONT MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD
INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS HOUR...AND REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY THE 1-2 0`CLOCK HOUR...AND THEN
EASTWARD INTO REMAINDER OF VT THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO WATCHING INTERESTING CONVECTIVE FINELINE ADVANCING
NORTHEAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WHICH IS PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT
ENTERS OUR WESTERN VT COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PLEASE
REFER TO LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FOR YOUR AREA AND MONITOR FUTURE
STATEMENTS FROM THE NWS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
QUITE BUSY HERE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS LARGER STREAMS
AND RIVERS CURRENTLY IN FLOOD. IN SHORT...THE FORECAST REMAINS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS NEEDED AS
OF MID-MORNING...MAINLY TO MATCH CURRENT POSITION OF MOVEMENT OF
STRONG POLAR FRONT PUSHING INTO OUR REGION. AS ANTICIPATED...TEMP
DROPS UP TO 20F IN ONE HOUR BEHIND FROPA AS READINGS CRASH QUICKLY
INTO THE 40S. THIS IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING IN THE SLV WHERE FRONT
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. MUCH MILDER IN THE 60S FROM THE EASTERN
ADIRONDACKS EAST INTO VERMONT...BUT TRENDS WILL BE SIMILAR IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL ON
TRACK TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY...TRANSITIONING TO A WET SNOW BY
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO
THE REGION. AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1 INCH IN NRN
NY...AND 1-1.5 INCHES IN VT WITH THIS EVENT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING (SEE HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF QUICKLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH GETTING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS PLEASANT ON
FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOOKING AT A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR MOST.
UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SWING OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE TRANSFERRING OFFSHORE...SO NOT
LOOKING AT A MAJOR RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40 WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW WILL EXIT SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A DEFAULT RIDGE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WHAT SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOTHING REAL NOTEWORTHY AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY GENERALLY 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CURRENTLY. THIS WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH VT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ALONG THE FRONT EXPECT RAPID WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTHWEST AND WIND GUSTS 25-30KTS. MOD TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL BUT BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE FRONT LEAVES THE
AREA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT
RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT KMSS NOW AND
AND REACHING KMPV BY 00Z.

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT THEN IFR TO MVFR
THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS. SNOW TAPERS OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS WITH ONLY SOME VCSH NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SCT CONDITIONS 16-18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. BASIN AVG QPF RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH IN NRN
NY...AND 1-1.5 INCHES IN VT BASED OFF LATEST INFORMATION WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT EXPECTED. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT IS
RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO YESTERDAYS VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW LIES ABOVE 2000-2500
FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...THE
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL KEEP...OR PUSH MANY RIVERS AND
SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES MODERATE FLOOD BY
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY
LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY GOING TO:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...NF
HYDROLOGY...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 151815
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
215 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT
TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND STEADY OVER THE AREA
AND COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 208 PM EDT TUESDAY...DROPPED WIND ADVSY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS OF THE NOONTIME HOUR AS STEADIER RAINFALL HAS ARRIVED IN
THE VALLEY AND INHIBITED MIXING MORE THOROUGHLY. KCXX VWP VALUES
STILL RUNNING FROM 50-60KTS IN THE 2-3 KFT LAYER...BUT THIS SHOULD
REMAIN ALOFT. WATCHING COLD FRONT MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD
INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS HOUR...AND REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY THE 1-2 0`CLOCK HOUR...AND THEN
EASTWARD INTO REMAINDER OF VT THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO WATCHING INTERESTING CONVECTIVE FINELINE ADVANCING
NORTHEAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WHICH IS PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT
ENTERS OUR WESTERN VT COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PLEASE
REFER TO LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FOR YOUR AREA AND MONITOR FUTURE
STATEMENTS FROM THE NWS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
QUITE BUSY HERE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS LARGER STREAMS
AND RIVERS CURRENTLY IN FLOOD. IN SHORT...THE FORECAST REMAINS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS NEEDED AS
OF MID-MORNING...MAINLY TO MATCH CURRENT POSITION OF MOVEMENT OF
STRONG POLAR FRONT PUSHING INTO OUR REGION. AS ANTICIPATED...TEMP
DROPS UP TO 20F IN ONE HOUR BEHIND FROPA AS READINGS CRASH QUICKLY
INTO THE 40S. THIS IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING IN THE SLV WHERE FRONT
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. MUCH MILDER IN THE 60S FROM THE EASTERN
ADIRONDACKS EAST INTO VERMONT...BUT TRENDS WILL BE SIMILAR IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL ON
TRACK TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY...TRANSITIONING TO A WET SNOW BY
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO
THE REGION. AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1 INCH IN NRN
NY...AND 1-1.5 INCHES IN VT WITH THIS EVENT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING (SEE HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF QUICKLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH GETTING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO
TAKE PLACE WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. STILL
LOOKING DRY...BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CURRENTLY. THIS WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH VT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ALONG THE FRONT EXPECT RAPID WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTHWEST AND WIND GUSTS 25-30KTS. MOD TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL BUT BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE FRONT LEAVES THE
AREA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT
RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT KMSS NOW AND
AND REACHING KMPV BY 00Z.

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT THEN IFR TO MVFR
THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS. SNOW TAPERS OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS WITH ONLY SOME VCSH NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SCT CONDITIONS 16-18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. BASIN AVG QPF RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH IN NRN
NY...AND 1-1.5 INCHES IN VT BASED OFF LATEST INFORMATION WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT EXPECTED. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT IS
RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO YESTERDAYS VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW LIES ABOVE 2000-2500
FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...THE
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL KEEP...OR PUSH MANY RIVERS AND
SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES MODERATE FLOOD BY
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY
LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY GOING TO:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NF
HYDROLOGY...JMG







000
FXUS61 KALY 151745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL COME AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER
WEATHER BY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TURN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION INCLUDING RENSSELAER COUNTY.

THE COLD FRONT IS INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD. THERE IS A LINE OF ENHANCED
SHALLOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SEE A BURST OF HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOME WIND GUSTS FROM THE TACONICS...TO THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES COULD REACH 40 TO 50
MPH...THAT COULD BRING SOME LOOSE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

THE FRONT SHOULD BE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WELL EAST BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 30S IN MOST AREAS BY SUNSET...MAYBE SOME 20S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NY SO FAR AND A BRIEF CHANGEOVER IS STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. JUST SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP TO OUR EAST AND PURE ARCTIC AIR
WILL SEND EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST TEENS WILL BE COMMON IN THE ADIRONDACKS. A
GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO THE
RAIN END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
COATING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT COULD BE LATER TODAY.

ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT ONLY AROUND
40-45 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S. A
NORTHWEST BREEZE 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD NEGATE THAT CHILL A
LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WIND...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THE ONLY MITIGATING
FACTOR IS THAT OUR NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE NOW LESS THAN 11 HOURS IN
LENGTH. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT SOME AREAS COULD PICK A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE. LOOK FOR LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME CASES...BUT NOT QUITE ECLIPSING THEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THIS CHILLING AIRMASS. WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB JUST SHY OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRILS. THAT WOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY.

HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ONCE MORE. THEREFORE..WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING
OUR REGION GENERALLY DRY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST AND INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONVERGE ON THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

SAT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNPHASED AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
KEEP 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SAT...TAPERING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR AT KPSF.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

MOST OF OUR REGION IS NOW SNOW FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINED.

A SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST FOR ALL REGIONS WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TODAY. A "WET FLAG" WAS ASSIGNED TO ALL FWM SITES ON MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK BY DAY/ END
WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAIN ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 5 TO 15
MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WE ALREADY HAVE SOME HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT...THANKS TO
NOT ONLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING WAY ABOVE
FREEZING AT NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BY AFTERNOON A LINE
OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES
COULD APPROACH HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. OVERALL WE ARE
LOOKING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AMOUNTS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 3
INCHES.

THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARKED RISES ON MOST RIVERS
AND STREAMS. SEVERAL POINTS ON OUR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
MINOR OR EVEN MODERATE FLOOD. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN RATE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE CHANCES ARE UNDER 25 PERCENT BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER BACK TO THE PORTION OF THE AFD LATER ON IF
YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 151719
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL COME AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER
WEATHER BY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TURN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION INCLUDING RENSSELAER COUNTY.

THE COLD FRONT IS INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD. THERE IS A LINE OF ENHANCED
SHALLOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SEE A BURST OF HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOME WIND GUSTS FROM THE TACONICS...TO THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES COULD REACH 40 TO 50
MPH...THAT COULD BRING SOME LOOSE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

THE FRONT SHOULD BE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WELL EAST BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 30S IN MOST AREAS BY SUNSET...MAYBE SOME 20S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NY SO FAR AND A BRIEF CHANGEOVER IS STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. JUST SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP TO OUR EAST AND PURE ARCTIC AIR
WILL SEND EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST TEENS WILL BE COMMON IN THE ADIRONDACKS. A
GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO THE
RAIN END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
COATING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT COULD BE LATER TODAY.

ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT ONLY AROUND
40-45 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S. A
NORTHWEST BREEZE 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD NEGATE THAT CHILL A
LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WIND...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THE ONLY MITIGATING
FACTOR IS THAT OUR NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE NOW LESS THAN 11 HOURS IN
LENGTH. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT SOME AREAS COULD PICK A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE. LOOK FOR LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME CASES...BUT NOT QUITE ECLIPSING THEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THIS CHILLING AIRMASS. WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB JUST SHY OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRILS. THAT WOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY.

HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ONCE MORE. THEREFORE..WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING
OUR REGION GENERALLY DRY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST AND INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONVERGE ON THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

SAT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNPHASED AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
KEEP 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SAT...TAPERING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES.
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED IFR TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL 20Z TO ACCOUNT
FOR EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
LOWERING CEILINGS FURTHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

MOST OF OUR REGION IS NOW SNOW FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINED.

A SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST FOR ALL REGIONS WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TODAY. A "WET FLAG" WAS ASSIGNED TO ALL FWM SITES ON MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK BY DAY/ END
WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAIN ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 5 TO 15
MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WE ALREADY HAVE SOME HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT...THANKS TO
NOT ONLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING WAY ABOVE
FREEZING AT NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BY AFTERNOON A LINE
OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES
COULD APPROACH HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. OVERALL WE ARE
LOOKING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AMOUNTS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 3
INCHES.

THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARKED RISES ON MOST RIVERS
AND STREAMS. SEVERAL POINTS ON OUR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
MINOR OR EVEN MODERATE FLOOD. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN RATE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE CHANCES ARE UNDER 25 PERCENT BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER BACK TO THE PORTION OF THE AFD LATER ON IF
YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 151656
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1256 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL COME AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER
WEATHER BY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TURN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION INCLUDING RENSSELAER COUNTY.

THE COLD FRONT IS INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD. THERE IS A LINE OF ENHANCED
SHALLOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SEE A BURST OF HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOME WIND GUSTS FROM THE TACONICS...TO THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES COULD REACH 40 TO 50
MPH...THAT COULD BRING SOME LOOSE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

THE FRONT SHOULD BE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WELL EAST BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 30S IN MOST AREAS BY SUNSET...MAYBE SOME 20S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NY SO FAR AND A BRIEF CHANGEOVER IS STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. JUST SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP TO OUR EAST AND PURE ARCTIC AIR
WILL SEND EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST TEENS WILL BE COMMON IN THE ADIRONDACKS. A
GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO THE
RAIN END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
COATING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT COULD BE LATER TODAY.

ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT ONLY AROUND
40-45 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S. A
NORTHWEST BREEZE 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD NEGATE THAT CHILL A
LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WIND...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THE ONLY MITIGATING
FACTOR IS THAT OUR NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE NOW LESS THAN 11 HOURS IN
LENGTH. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT SOME AREAS COULD PICK A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE. LOOK FOR LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME CASES...BUT NOT QUITE ECLIPSING THEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THIS CHILLING AIRMASS. WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB JUST SHY OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRILS. THAT WOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY.

HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ONCE MORE. THEREFORE..WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING
OUR REGION GENERALLY DRY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST AND INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONVERGE ON THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

SAT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNPHASED AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
KEEP 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SAT...TAPERING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS AFFECT THE
REGION.

THIS MORNING...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OPEN THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY MID-MORNING WITH
MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF
THE SHOWERS...THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL IFR FLYING CONDITIONS AS WELL
AND HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 15Z.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AROUND 12-16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY IFR FLYING CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT IN TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS...USHERING IN DRAMATICALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE
INTRODUCED A PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE TAFS AFTER
00Z...WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET. AS COLDER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 03Z AND QUICKLY END BY 09Z WITH
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

MOST OF OUR REGION IS NOW SNOW FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINED.

A SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST FOR ALL REGIONS WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TODAY. A "WET FLAG" WAS ASSIGNED TO ALL FWM SITES ON MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK BY DAY/ END
WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAIN ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 5 TO 15
MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WE ALREADY HAVE SOME HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT...THANKS TO
NOT ONLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING WAY ABOVE
FREEZING AT NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BY AFTERNOON A LINE
OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES
COULD APPROACH HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. OVERALL WE ARE
LOOKING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AMOUNTS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 3
INCHES.

THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARKED RISES ON MOST RIVERS
AND STREAMS. SEVERAL POINTS ON OUR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
MINOR OR EVEN MODERATE FLOOD. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN RATE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE CHANCES ARE UNDER 25 PERCENT BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER BACK TO THE PORTION OF THE AFD LATER ON IF
YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 151627
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1227 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT
TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND STEADY OVER THE AREA
AND COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1227 PM EDT TUESDAY...DROPPED WIND ADVSY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS OF THE NOONTIME HOUR AS STEADIER RAINFALL HAS ARRIVED IN
THE VALLEY AND INHIBITED MIXING MORE THOROUGHLY. KCXX VWP VALUES
STILL RUNNING FROM 50-60KTS IN THE 2-3 KFT LAYER...BUT THIS SHOULD
REMAIN ALOFT. WATCHING COLD FRONT MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD
INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS HOUR...AND REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY THE 1-2 0`CLOCK HOUR...AND THEN
EASTWARD INTO REMAINDER OF VT THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO WATCHING INTERESTING CONVECTIVE FINELINE ADVANCING
NORTHEAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WHICH IS PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT
ENTERS OUR WESTERN VT COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PLEASE
REFER TO LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FOR YOUR AREA AND MONITOR FUTURE
STATEMENTS FROM THE NWS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
QUITE BUSY HERE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS LARGER STREAMS
AND RIVERS CURRENTLY IN FLOOD. IN SHORT...THE FORECAST REMAINS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS NEEDED AS
OF MID-MORNING...MAINLY TO MATCH CURRENT POSITION OF MOVEMENT OF
STRONG POLAR FRONT PUSHING INTO OUR REGION. AS ANTICIPATED...TEMP
DROPS UP TO 20F IN ONE HOUR BEHIND FROPA AS READINGS CRASH QUICKLY
INTO THE 40S. THIS IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING IN THE SLV WHERE FRONT
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. MUCH MILDER IN THE 60S FROM THE EASTERN
ADIRONDACKS EAST INTO VERMONT...BUT TRENDS WILL BE SIMILAR IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL ON
TRACK TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY...TRANSITIONING TO A WET SNOW BY
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO
THE REGION. AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1 INCH IN NRN
NY...AND 1-1.5 INCHES IN VT WITH THIS EVENT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING (SEE HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF QUICKLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH GETTING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO
TAKE PLACE WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. STILL
LOOKING DRY...BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND CREATE IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION OVER
TO SNOW LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES UNTIL THE SNOW ENDS AROUND 06Z. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. BASIN AVG QPF RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH IN NRN
NY...AND 1-1.5 INCHES IN VT BASED OFF LATEST INFORMATION WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT EXPECTED. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT IS
RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO YESTERDAYS VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW LIES ABOVE 2000-2500
FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...THE
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL KEEP...OR PUSH MANY RIVERS AND
SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES MODERATE FLOOD BY
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY
LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY GOING TO:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...JMG







000
FXUS61 KALY 151432
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH TODAY. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL
COME AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER WEATHER BY TONIGHT. RAIN
WILL TURN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE SUN WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION INCLUDING RENSSELAER COUNTY.

AS OF 1030 AM EDT...A SWATHE OF MDT-HVY RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS
W-CNTRL NY INTO ERN NY. THIS AREA OF RAINFALL IS BEING TRANSPORTED
NORTH FROM A DEEP FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO PER
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN H250 JET STREAK OF 150+KTS WILL HELP ENHANCE THE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSIST IN ENHANCING THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FGEN
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE RAINFALL HAS REACHED THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...AND POPS AND TEMP PROFILES WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

SNOW CONTINUES OVER WRN NY...AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH KSYR WHERE TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE U30S. IT HAS ALSO
REACHED THE WRN DACKS...AND PARTS OF THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM MOST OF THE FCST
AREA...EXCEPT FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRACT SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE A
SLIGHT CHC WAS KEPT IN WITH 250 J/KG OR LESS OF INSTABILITY. THE
LOW-LEVEL JET IS IMPRESSIVE AT H850 REACHING 50-65+ KTS. SOME
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH MAY REACH THE SFC...BUT IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR
STRONGER GUSTS WITH THE RAIN SHIELD FILLING IN. SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS WILL ADDRESS ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH THUNDERLESS
OR NEAR THUNDERLESS LINES IF THE WINDS ARE LESS THAN 58 MPH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED WELL BEFORE NOON ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...GENERALLY 55 TO 60. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...60S
WILL BE COMMON...MID 60S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY  WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY...BY
NOON ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE CATSKILLS/HUDSON VALLEY...AND EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND GENERATE A PLETHORA OF HYDRO
ISSUES. MORE ABOUT THESE CAN BE FOUND IN OUR HYDRO SECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY THROUGH THE 30S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS DURING THE AFTERNOON...CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW.
SLEET HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST. FURTHER EAST...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE 30S (40S SOUTHEAST) BY DARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP TO OUR EAST AND PURE ARCTIC AIR
WILL SEND EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST TEENS WILL BE COMMON IN THE ADIRONDACKS. A
GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO THE
RAIN END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
COATING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT COULD BE LATER TODAY.

ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT ONLY AROUND
40-45 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S. A
NORTHWEST BREEZE 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD NEGATE THAT CHILL A
LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WIND...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THE ONLY MITIGATING
FACTOR IS THAT OUR NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE NOW LESS THAN 11 HOURS IN
LENGTH. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT SOME AREAS COULD PICK A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE. LOOK FOR LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME CASES...BUT NOT QUITE ECLIPSING THEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THIS CHILLING AIRMASS. WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB JUST SHY OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRILS. THAT WOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY.

HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ONCE MORE. THEREFORE..WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING
OUR REGION GENERALLY DRY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST AND INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONVERGE ON THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

SAT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNPHASED AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
KEEP 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SAT...TAPERING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS AFFECT THE
REGION.

THIS MORNING...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OPEN THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY MID-MORNING WITH
MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF
THE SHOWERS...THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL IFR FLYING CONDITIONS AS WELL
AND HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 15Z.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AROUND 12-16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY IFR FLYING CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT IN TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS...USHERING IN DRAMATICALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE
INTRODUCED A PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE TAFS AFTER
00Z...WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET. AS COLDER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 03Z AND QUICKLY END BY 09Z WITH
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

MOST OF OUR REGION IS NOW SNOW FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINED.

A SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST FOR ALL REGIONS WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TODAY. A "WET FLAG" WAS ASSIGNED TO ALL FWM SITES ON MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK BY DAY/ END
WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAIN ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 5 TO 15
MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WE ALREADY HAVE SOME HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT...THANKS TO
NOT ONLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING WAY ABOVE
FREEZING AT NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BY AFTERNOON A LINE
OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES
COULD APPROACH HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. OVERALL WE ARE
LOOKING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AMOUNTS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 3
INCHES.

THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARKED RISES ON MOST RIVERS
AND STREAMS. SEVERAL POINTS ON OUR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
MINOR OR EVEN MODERATE FLOOD. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN RATE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE CHANCES ARE UNDER 25 PERCENT BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER BACK TO THE PORTION OF THE AFD LATER ON IF
YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 151414
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1014 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT
TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND STEADY OVER THE AREA
AND COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUITE BUSY HERE THIS MORNING WITH
NUMEROUS LARGER STREAMS AND RIVERS CURRENTLY IN FLOOD. IN
SHORT...THE FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS NEEDED AS OF MID-MORNING...MAINLY TO
MATCH CURRENT POSITION OF MOVEMENT OF STRONG POLAR FRONT PUSHING
INTO OUR REGION. AS ANTICIPATED...TEMP DROPS UP TO 20F IN ONE HOUR
BEHIND FROPA AS READINGS CRASH QUICKLY INTO THE 40S. THIS IS
CURRENTLY HAPPENING IN THE SLV WHERE FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED.
MUCH MILDER IN THE 60S FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EAST INTO
VERMONT...BUT TRENDS WILL BE SIMILAR IN THESE AREAS AS WELL BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE
REGION TODAY...TRANSITIONING TO A WET SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE REGION. AMOUNTS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1 INCH IN NRN NY...AND 1-1.5 INCHES
IN VT WITH THIS EVENT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING (SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF QUICKLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH GETTING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO
TAKE PLACE WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. STILL
LOOKING DRY...BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND CREATE IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION OVER
TO SNOW LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES UNTIL THE SNOW ENDS AROUND 06Z. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. BASIN AVG QPF RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH IN NRN
NY...AND 1-1.5 INCHES IN VT BASED OFF LATEST INFORMATION WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT EXPECTED. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT IS
RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO YESTERDAYS VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW LIES ABOVE 2000-2500
FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...THE
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL KEEP...OR PUSH MANY RIVERS AND
SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES MODERATE FLOOD BY
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY
LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY GOING TO:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001-002-005-
     009-011-017>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 151149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT
TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND STEADY OVER THE AREA
AND COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 653 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
TWEAK WAS TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING PRECIPITATION INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
HEADED OUR WAY. THIS WILL ONLY IMPACT THE FLOOD SITUATION EVEN
FURTHER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC. VERY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT EXISTS
WITH THE FRONT...NOT JUST AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT AS WELL. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND MOISTURE SURGING
NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD INDICATES A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING
AT AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF OF PRECIPITATION AND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE RISES ON
THE RIVERS CAN BE EXPECTED. SEVERAL ARE ALREADY IN FLOOD AND MORE
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. THUS THE FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. THUS THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. LASTLY...WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT COMES THE SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF.
THE WARM GROUND SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT ON ROADWAYS WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACE. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. LOOKING
AT A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1 TO 4 INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF QUICKLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH GETTING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO
TAKE PLACE WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. STILL
LOOKING DRY...BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND CREATE IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION OVER
TO SNOW LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES UNTIL THE SNOW ENDS AROUND 06Z. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THINKING THAT AN ACTIVE
HYDROLOGIC PERIOD IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE SEEN
OFF AND ON SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT. A FEW RIVERS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
GONE INTO FLOOD AND SEVERAL MORE ARE APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE. WITH
MORE SNOWMELT AND STEADIER RAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES STILL EXPECTED...MORE FLOODING WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001-002-005-
     009-011-017>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...JMG








000
FXUS61 KALY 151130
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
730 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME OF THE RAIN MIGHT BE HEAVY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL COME AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER
WEATHER BY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TURN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION INCLUDING RENSSELAER COUNTY.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS
LEAVING THE FORECAST BASICALLY AS IT WAS.

AS OF 645 AM EDT...SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUED TO SLOWLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION. A MUCH LARGER AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS WELL AS A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN ASSOCIATED THE WITH COLD FRONT...NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEW
YORK STATE.

AS OUR REGION COMES UNDERNEATH THE ENTRANCE OF SLIGHTLY
ANTICYLONICALLY CURVED UPPER LEFT JET APPROACHING 130KTS...UPWARD
MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

TEMPERATURES OVER OUR REGION HAVE REMAINED EXCEPTIONALLY MILD
LOWER TO MID 60S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST...55 TO AROUND 60
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INCLUDING THE ADIRONDACKS.

A SOUTH BREEZE CONTINUED 5 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE REGION...GUSTING TO
25 MPH AT TIMES. THESE VALUES WERE DOWN A LITTLE FROM EARLIER IN THE
EVENING.

THE SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH
MIDDAY... WHICH COULD BECOME HEAVY WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...AND DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE HUDSON EASTWARD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED WELL BEFORE NOON ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...GENERALLY 55 TO 60. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...60S WILL
BE COMMON...MID TO UPPER 60S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD.
IF WE WERE TO GET SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE (UNLIKELY) SOME SPOTS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH INTO THE 70S...BUT RIGHT NOW WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING THEM TO BE QUITE THAT WARM AS RAIN WILL SERVE TO COOL
THE BOUNDARY DOWN A BIT ON ITS OWN. IF WE WERE TO GET ANY BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE THAT WOULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORM RISKS...AND WIND GUSTS AS
WELL.

THE SOUTHERLY WIND WILL INCREASE ONCE MORE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE WIND PROFILES AND THE FACT THAT MOISTURE
SHOULD PROHIBIT A DEEP OF MIXING AS YESTERDAY (DESPITE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT)...WE HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY WIND ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...WE
HAVE WIND GUSTS REACHING UP TO 40 MPH IN THE GRIDS. ALSO...SOME
LIMITED INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TAP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT (EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT
TALL). THESE COULD BRING ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS DOWN SO WE KEPT
(THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST) EVEN
THOUGH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LOW...AND SEVERE ONES
(CONTAINING WIND GUSTS 60 MPH OR HIGHER) VERY LOW.   SOUTH WIND WILL
TURN TO THE WEST ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY...BY NOON ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
CATSKILLS/HUDSON VALLEY...AND EARLY EVENING SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND GENERATE A PLETHORA OF HYDRO
ISSUES. MORE ABOUT THESE CAN BE FOUND IN OUR HYDRO SECTION.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT HAVE PLUNGED INTO THE 30S IN
OHIO AND EVEN DUNKIRK IN NY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY THROUGH
THE 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS DURING THE AFTERNOON...CHANGING THE
RAIN INITIALLY TO SLEET AND THEN TO SNOW. FURTHER
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S (40S SOUTHEAST) BY DARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP TO OUR EAST AND PURE ARCTIC AIR
WILL SEND EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST TEENS WILL BE COMMON IN THE ADIRONDACKS. A
GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO THE
RAIN END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
COATING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT COULD BE LATER TODAY.

ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT ONLY AROUND
40-45 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S. A
NORTHWEST BREEZE 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD NEGATE THAT CHILL A
LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WIND...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THE ONLY MITIGATING
FACTOR IS THAT OUR NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE NOW LESS THAN 11 HOURS IN
LENGTH. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT SOME AREAS COULD PICK A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE. LOOK FOR LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME CASES...BUT NOT QUITE ECLIPSING THEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THIS CHILLING AIRMASS. WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB JUST SHY OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRILS. THAT WOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY.

HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ONCE MORE. THEREFORE..WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING
OUR REGION GENERALLY DRY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST AND INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONVERGE ON THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

SAT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNPHASED AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
KEEP 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SAT...TAPERING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS AFFECT THE
REGION.

THIS MORNING...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OPEN THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY MID-MORNING WITH
MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF
THE SHOWERS...THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL IFR FLYING CONDITIONS AS WELL
AND HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 15Z.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AROUND 12-16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY IFR FLYING CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT IN TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS...USHERING IN DRAMATICALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE
INTRODUCED A PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE TAFS AFTER
00Z...WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET. AS COLDER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 03Z AND QUICKLY END BY 09Z WITH
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

MOST OF OUR REGION IS NOW SNOW FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINED.

A SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST FOR ALL REGIONS WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TODAY. A "WET FLAG" WAS ASSIGNED TO ALL FWM SITES ON MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK BY DAY/ END
WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAIN ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 5 TO 15
MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WE ALREADY HAVE SOME HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT...THANKS TO
NOT ONLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING WAY ABOVE
FREEZING AT NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BY AFTERNOON A LINE
OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES
COULD APPROACH HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. OVERALL WE ARE
LOOKING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AMOUNTS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 3
INCHES.

THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARKED RISES ON MOST RIVERS
AND STREAMS. SEVERAL POINTS ON OUR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
MINOR OR EVEN MODERATE FLOOD. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN RATE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE CHANCES ARE UNDER 25 PERCENT BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER BACK TO THE PORTION OF THE AFD LATER ON IF
YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 151053
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
653 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT
TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND STEADY OVER THE AREA
AND COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 653 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
TWEAK WAS TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING PRECIPITATION INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
HEADED OUR WAY. THIS WILL ONLY IMPACT THE FLOOD SITUATION EVEN
FURTHER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC. VERY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT EXISTS
WITH THE FRONT...NOT JUST AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT AS WELL. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND MOISTURE SURGING
NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD INDICATES A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING
AT AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF OF PRECIPITATION AND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE RISES ON
THE RIVERS CAN BE EXPECTED. SEVERAL ARE ALREADY IN FLOOD AND MORE
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. THUS THE FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. THUS THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. LASTLY...WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT COMES THE SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF.
THE WARM GROUND SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT ON ROADWAYS WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACE. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. LOOKING
AT A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1 TO 4 INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF QUICKLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH GETTING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO
TAKE PLACE WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. STILL
LOOKING DRY...BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PERIODICALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. STRONG
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT PEAKING AT 30-40
KTS BETWEEN 12-16Z. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF MODERATE TO SEVERE
TURBULENCE...MAY NEED TO ADD LLWS FOR DIRECTION AND SPEED. EXPECT
MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR WITH THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...SLK
MIXING WITH SNOW BY 18Z TUESDAY...AND A MIX POSSIBLE AT REST OF
SITES TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY. ALL TAF SITES WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. PRECIP
SHOULD BE ENDING TOWARDS END OF 06Z TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THINKING THAT AN ACTIVE
HYDROLOGIC PERIOD IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE SEEN
OFF AND ON SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT. A FEW RIVERS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
GONE INTO FLOOD AND SEVERAL MORE ARE APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE. WITH
MORE SNOWMELT AND STEADIER RAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES STILL EXPECTED...MORE FLOODING WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001-002-005-
     009-011-017>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...JMG








000
FXUS61 KALY 151046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME OF THE RAIN MIGHT BE HEAVY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL COME AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER
WEATHER BY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TURN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION INCLUDING RENSSELAER COUNTY.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS
LEAVING THE FORECAST BASICALLY AS IT WAS.

AS OF 645 AM EDT...SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUED TO SLOWLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION. A MUCH LARGER AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS WELL AS A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN ASSOCIATED THE WITH COLD FRONT...NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEW
YORK STATE.

AS OUR REGION COMES UNDERNEATH THE ENTRANCE OF SLIGHTLY
ANTICYLONICALLY CURVED UPPER LEFT JET APPROACHING 130KTS...UPWARD
MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

TEMPERATURES OVER OUR REGION HAVE REMAINED EXCEPTIONALLY MILD
LOWER TO MID 60S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST...55 TO AROUND 60
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INCLUDING THE ADIRONDACKS.

A SOUTH BREEZE CONTINUED 5 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE REGION...GUSTING TO
25 MPH AT TIMES. THESE VALUES WERE DOWN A LITTLE FROM EARLIER IN THE
EVENING.

THE SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH
MIDDAY... WHICH COULD BECOME HEAVY WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...AND DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE HUDSON EASTWARD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED WELL BEFORE NOON ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...GENERALLY 55 TO 60. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...60S WILL
BE COMMON...MID TO UPPER 60S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD.
IF WE WERE TO GET SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE (UNLIKELY) SOME SPOTS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH INTO THE 70S...BUT RIGHT NOW WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING THEM TO BE QUITE THAT WARM AS RAIN WILL SERVE TO COOL
THE BOUNDARY DOWN A BIT ON ITS OWN. IF WE WERE TO GET ANY BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE THAT WOULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORM RISKS...AND WIND GUSTS AS
WELL.

THE SOUTHERLY WIND WILL INCREASE ONCE MORE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE WIND PROFILES AND THE FACT THAT MOISTURE
SHOULD PROHIBIT A DEEP OF MIXING AS YESTERDAY (DESPITE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT)...WE HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY WIND ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...WE
HAVE WIND GUSTS REACHING UP TO 40 MPH IN THE GRIDS. ALSO...SOME
LIMITED INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TAP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT (EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT
TALL). THESE COULD BRING ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS DOWN SO WE KEPT
(THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST) EVEN
THOUGH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LOW...AND SEVERE ONES
(CONTAINING WIND GUSTS 60 MPH OR HIGHER) VERY LOW.   SOUTH WIND WILL
TURN TO THE WEST ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY...BY NOON ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
CATSKILLS/HUDSON VALLEY...AND EARLY EVENING SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND GENERATE A PLETHORA OF HYDRO
ISSUES. MORE ABOUT THESE CAN BE FOUND IN OUR HYDRO SECTION.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT HAVE PLUNGED INTO THE 30S IN
OHIO AND EVEN DUNKIRK IN NY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY THROUGH
THE 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS DURING THE AFTERNOON...CHANGING THE
RAIN INITIALLY TO SLEET AND THEN TO SNOW. FURTHER
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S (40S SOUTHEAST) BY DARK.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP TO OUR EAST AND PURE ARCTIC AIR
WILL SEND EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST TEENS WILL BE COMMON IN THE ADIRONDACKS. A
GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO THE
RAIN END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
COATING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT COULD BE LATER TODAY.

ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT ONLY AROUND
40-45 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S. A
NORTHWEST BREEZE 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD NEGATE THAT CHILL A
LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WIND...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THE ONLY MITIGATING
FACTOR IS THAT OUR NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE NOW LESS THAN 11 HOURS IN
LENGTH. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT SOME AREAS COULD PICK A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE. LOOK FOR LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME CASES...BUT NOT QUITE ECLIPSING THEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THIS CHILLING AIRMASS. WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB JUST SHY OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRILS. THAT WOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY.

HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ONCE MORE. THEREFORE..WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING
OUR REGION GENERALLY DRY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST AND INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONVERGE ON THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

SAT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNPHASED AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
KEEP 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SAT...TAPERING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY...PASSING ACROSS THE TAF SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SPOTTY AND HAVE MAINLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES...BUT A STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
SUNRISE AND HAVE INDICATED MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE
TAF SITES AFTER 08-09Z.

FROM MID MORNING ON EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN WITH MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES INTO MONDAY EVENING. DURING THE
EVENING IT WILL LIKELY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF (GENERALLY AFT 16/01Z). AT KPOU THE STEADY PCPN
SHOULD END BEFORE IT GETS COLD ENOUGH FOR MIXED PCPN. AFTER ABOUT
04-05Z EXPECT JUST FLURRIES AT THE TAF SITES WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 12-18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 27
KTS FORECAST. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING (AROUND SUNRISE). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AND REMAIN STRONG. WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

MOST OF OUR REGION IS NOW SNOW FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINED.

A SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST FOR ALL REGIONS WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TODAY. A "WET FLAG" WAS ASSIGNED TO ALL FWM SITES ON MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK BY DAY/ END
WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAIN ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 5 TO 15
MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WE ALREADY HAVE SOME HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT...THANKS TO
NOT ONLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING WAY ABOVE
FREEZING AT NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BY AFTERNOON A LINE
OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES
COULD APPROACH HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. OVERALL WE ARE
LOOKING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AMOUNTS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 3
INCHES.

THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARKED RISES ON MOST RIVERS
AND STREAMS. SEVERAL POINTS ON OUR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
MINOR OR EVEN MODERATE FLOOD. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN RATE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE CHANCES ARE UNDER 25 PERCENT BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER BACK TO THE PORTION OF THE AFD LATER ON IF
YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 150845
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME OF THE RAIN MIGHT BE HEAVY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL COME AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER
WEATHER BY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TURN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION INCLUDING RENSSELAER COUNTY.

AS OF 430 AM EDT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS INCREASING IN ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REGION AS BROAD ASCENT HAS BEGUN AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. UNFORTUNATELY...THICK CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE VIEWING THE
ONGOING LUNAR ECLIPSE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK...TO THE EAST OF ROCHESTER BUT JUST TO THE WEST OF
DANSVILLE. CLOUDS TOPS WERE COOLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ALL THE
WAY SOUTH TO THE GULF WHERE LOTS OF CONVECTION WAS FIRING UP. THE
QUESTION COULD THIS CONVECTION ROB US OF SOME MOISTURE?
POSSIBLY...BUT MORE THAN LIKELY...AS OUR REGION COMES UNDERNEATH THE
ENTRANCE OF SLIGHTLY ANTICYLONICALLY CURVED UPPER LEFT JET
APPROACHING 130KTS...UPWARD MOTION WILL INCREASE.

TEMPERATURES OVER OUR REGION HAVE REMAINED EXCEPTIONALLY MILD
...LOWER TO MID 60S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST...55 TO AROUND
60 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INCLUDING THE ADIRONDACKS.

A SOUTH BREEZE CONTINUED 5 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE REGION...GUSTING TO
25 MPH AT TIMES. THESE VALUES WERE DOWN A LITTLE FROM EARLIER IN THE
EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...AND THERE COULD BE RUMBLE OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY DROP A LITTLE MORE IF AT ALL...BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN THE MID
50S AND LOWER 60S.

AFTER DAYBREAK...THE SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WHICH COULD BECOME HEAVY BY MIDDAY WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...AND DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE HUDSON EASTWARD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED WELL BEFORE NOON ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...GENERALLY 55 TO 60. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...60S WILL
BE COMMON...MID TO UPPER 60S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD.
IF WE WERE TO GET SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE (UNLIKELY) SOME SPOTS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH INTO THE 70S...BUT RIGHT NOW WE ARE NOT FORECASTING
THEM TO BE QUITE THAT WARM AS RAIN WILL SERVE TO COOL THE BOUNDARY
DOWN A BIT ON ITS OWN.

SOUTHERLY WIND WILL INCREASE ONCE MORE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RIGHT
NOW...BASED ON THE WIND PROFILES AND THE FACT THAT MOISTURE SHOULD
PROHIBIT AS GOOD MIXING AS YESTERDAY (DESPITE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT)
WE HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY WIND ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...WE HAVE WIND GUSTS
REACHING UP TO 40 MPH IN THE GRIDS. ALSO...SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY
MIGHT ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD TAP
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT (EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT TALL). THESE COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS DOWN SO WE KEPT (THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT CONTAIN
GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST) EVEN THOUGH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS LOW...AND SEVERE ONES (CONTAINING WIND GUSTS 60 MPH OR HIGHER)
VERY LOW.   SOUTH WIND WILL TURN TO THE WEST ONCE THE FRONT GOES
BY...BY NOON ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...DURING
THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE CATSKILLS/HUDSON VALLEY...AND EARLY
EVENING SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND GENERATE A PLETHORA OF HYDRO ISSUES.
MORE ABOUT THESE CAN BE FOUND IN OUR HYDRO SECTION.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT HAVE PLUNGED INTO THE 30S IN
OHIO AND EVEN DUNKIRK IN NY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY THROUGH THE
30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS DURING THE AFTERNOON...CHANGING THE RAIN
INITIALLY TO SLEET AND THEN TO SNOW. FURTHER EAST...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE 30S (40S SOUTHEAST) BY DARK.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL SWEEP TO OUR EAST AND PURE ARCTIC AIR WILL
SEND EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST TEENS WILL BE COMMON IN THE ADIRONDACKS. A GUSTY WEST
WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO THE RAIN END
AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
COATING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT COULD BE LATER TODAY.

ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT ONLY AROUND 40-45
DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S. A
NORTHWEST BREEZE 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD NEGATE THAT CHILL A
LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WIND...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THE ONLY MITIGATING
FACTOR IS THAT OUR NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE NOW LESS THAN 11 HOURS IN
LENGTH. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT SOME AREAS COULD PICK A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE. LOOK FOR LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME CASES...BUT NOT QUITE ECLIPSING THEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THIS CHILLING AIRMASS. WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB JUST SHY OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRILS. THAT WOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY.

HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ONCE MORE. THEREFORE..WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP TO OUR EAST AND PURE ARCTIC AIR WILL SEND
EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S. FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST TEENS WILL BE COMMON IN THE ADIRONDACKS. A GUSTY WEST WIND
WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO THE RAIN END AS SOME
SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
COATING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT COULD BE LATER TODAY.

ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT ONLY AROUND 40-45
DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S. A
NORTHWEST BREEZE 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD NEGATE THAT CHILL A
LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WIND...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THE ONLY MITIGATING
FACTOR IS THAT OUR NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE NOW LESS THAN 11 HOURS IN
LENGTH. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT SOME AREAS COULD PICK A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE. LOOK FOR LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME CASES...BUT NOT QUITE ECLIPSING THEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THIS CHILLING AIRMASS. WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB JUST SHY OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRILS. THAT WOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY.

HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ONCE MORE. THEREFORE..WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING
OUR REGION GENERALLY DRY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST AND INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONVERGE ON THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

SAT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNPHASED AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
KEEP 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SAT...TAPERING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY...PASSING ACROSS THE TAF SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SPOTTY AND HAVE MAINLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES...BUT A STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
SUNRISE AND HAVE INDICATED MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE
TAF SITES AFTER 08-09Z.

FROM MID MORNING ON EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN WITH MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES INTO MONDAY EVENING. DURING THE
EVENING IT WILL LIKELY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF (GENERALLY AFT 16/01Z). AT KPOU THE STEADY PCPN
SHOULD END BEFORE IT GETS COLD ENOUGH FOR MIXED PCPN. AFTER ABOUT
04-05Z EXPECT JUST FLURRIES AT THE TAF SITES WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 12-18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 27
KTS FORECAST. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING (AROUND SUNRISE). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AND REMAIN STRONG. WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

MOST OF OUR REGION IS NOW SNOW FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINED.

A SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST FOR ALL REGIONS WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TODAY. A "WET FLAG" WAS ASSIGNED TO ALL FWM SITES ON MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK BY DAY/ END
WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAIN ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 5 TO 15
MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES.

WE ALREADY HAVE SOME HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT...THANKS TO
NOT ONLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING WAY ABOVE
FREEZING AT NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BY AFTERNOON A LINE
OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES
COULD APPROACH HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. OVERALL WE ARE
LOOKING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AMOUNTS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 3
INCHES.

THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARKED RISES ON MOST RIVERS
AND STREAMS. SEVERAL POINTS ON OUR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
MINOR OR EVEN MODERATE FLOOD. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN RATE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE CHANCES ARE UNDER 25 PERCENT BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER BACK TO THE PORTION OF THE AFD LATER ON IF
YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 150835
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
435 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT
TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND STEADY OVER THE AREA
AND COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...WE CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND WESTERN
QUEBEC. VERY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT EXISTS WITH THE FRONT...NOT
JUST AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT AS WELL. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD INDICATES A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT AN INCH TO INCH
AND A HALF OF PRECIPITATION AND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE RISES ON THE RIVERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. SEVERAL ARE ALREADY IN FLOOD AND MORE ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD TAKE PLACE FOR
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THUS
THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. LASTLY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT COMES THE SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A CHANGE FROM
RAIN TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF. THE WARM
GROUND SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT ON ROADWAYS WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACE. THE MOUNTAINS
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. LOOKING AT A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF QUICKLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH GETTING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO
TAKE PLACE WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. STILL
LOOKING DRY...BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PERIODICALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. STRONG
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT PEAKING AT 30-40
KTS BETWEEN 12-16Z. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF MODERATE TO SEVERE
TURBULENCE...MAY NEED TO ADD LLWS FOR DIRECTION AND SPEED. EXPECT
MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR WITH THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...SLK
MIXING WITH SNOW BY 18Z TUESDAY...AND A MIX POSSIBLE AT REST OF
SITES TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY. ALL TAF SITES WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. PRECIP
SHOULD BE ENDING TOWARDS END OF 06Z TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THINKING THAT AN ACTIVE
HYDROLOGIC PERIOD IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE SEEN
OFF AND ON SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT. A FEW RIVERS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
GONE INTO FLOOD AND SEVERAL MORE ARE APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE. WITH
MORE SNOWMELT AND STEADIER RAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES STILL EXPECTED...MORE FLOODING WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011-017>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 150617
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
217 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EXPECTED...ENDING AS WET SNOW AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT TUESDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHICH CONTINUES TO
PROMOTE SNOWMELT AND WE ARE SEEING RIVERS RISING EARLY THIS
MORNING...SOME OF WHICH HAVE GONE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST BASED ON RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY THEN ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS VERY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY
AN ANA-FRONTAL TYPE FRONTAL ZONE DEPICTED ON MOST MODELS...WITH
SCT PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A STEADY/SOAKING RAINFALL
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES VERY TRICKY AND GIVEN UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES...WILL OFFER
MILDEST READINGS EAST IN THE MORNING THROUGH NOON (60S TO NEAR
70)...WITH READINGS CRASHING THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT...MANY
AREAS MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BY AS MUCH AS 20F IN ONE HOUR AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES. WINDS CONTINUE QUITE GUSTY...ESP EAST
AND PARTICULARLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE CHANNELED PRE-
FRONTAL SOUTH FLOW WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SPEEDS. AS A RESULT...WILL
BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS INCLUDING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ELSEWHERE...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS
APPEAR REASONABLE.

AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SHARPLY SUCH THAT P-TYPE WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW...THEN ALL SNOW BY AFTERNOON IN NRN NY...AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NW TO SE IN VERMONT. THIS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. WET ACCUMULATIONS
RELATIVELY MINOR WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...1-3
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FT...AND PERHAPS 2-5 AT SUMMIT
LEVEL. QUITE THE CHANCE FROM TODAY TO SAY THE LEAST. LOWS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN
COLDER NRN MTN LOCALES.

THEREAFTER...SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS QUIET AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A CHILLY DAY ON TAP FOR SURE
THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY DIMINISHES OVER
TIME. HIGHS IN MOST SPOTS ONLY IN THE 30S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOWER 40S SOUTH. THEN CLR/PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED CHILLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED. LOWS 15 TO 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLE PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ALLOWING FOR GENTLE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN AROUND TO SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S THEN MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY AS 850 TEMPS RISE TO
0 TO +3C.

AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
ON SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY BRINGING AN AVERAGE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD OR WARM
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL LOOKING AT NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
850 TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 0C GIVING US HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S BUT
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS PLENTIFUL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PERIODICALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. STRONG
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT PEAKING AT 30-40
KTS BETWEEN 12-16Z. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF MODERATE TO SEVERE
TURBULENCE...MAY NEED TO ADD LLWS FOR DIRECTION AND SPEED. EXPECT
MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR WITH THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...SLK
MIXING WITH SNOW BY 18Z TUESDAY...AND A MIX POSSIBLE AT REST OF
SITES TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY. ALL TAF SITES WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. PRECIP
SHOULD BE ENDING TOWARDS END OF 06Z TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS
OF MID-AFTERNOON CONTINUED SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTES TO SURFACE
RUNOFF. WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5
INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH THE TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. WHILE NOT
EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH CONTINUED
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP RISES ON
MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN SOME CASES INTO MINOR FLOOD BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RIVERS WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE ARE THE AUSABLE...WINOOSKI AND
THE OTTER CREEK...THOUGH NUMEROUS OTHER WATERSHEDS MAY IN FACT
FLOOD AS WELL WITH MINOR LOWLAND FIELD FLOODING BEING A NEAR
CERTAINTY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011-017>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...JMG






000
FXUS61 KALY 150601
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
201 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IT WILL TURN DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
     RENSSELAER COUNTY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FLOOD WATCH DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING IN TROY AS RAIN AND SNOW MELT BUILDS
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...GENERALLY LIGHT WITH A FEW ELEMENTS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL. THESE ARE ARE WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH WAS WORKING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME.

INITIALLY...THESE SHOWERS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO WORK MUCH FURTHER
EAST DUE TO A WAVE LIKELY FORMING ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...BROAD
ASCENT AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA BY DAWN.

TEMPERATURES WERE INCREDIBLY MILD ONCE MORE...STILL WELL INTO THE
60S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREAS...AND EVEN 50S NORTH. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW FALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LEFT LOW
TEMPERATURES ALONE.

RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
RAIN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARD WET BULBS...BUT STILL ONLY
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG UPPER IMPULSE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. CATCHES UP WITH THE FRONT
CURRENTLY FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY
AND RACES EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OVER OUR REGION NOW SHOULD DECREASE AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...SOME INSTABILITY ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE EXTREME FORCING MECHANISMS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER JET ENERGY SHOULD
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE HUDSON RIVER INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
OF AROUND 20C IN A DISTANCE OF LESS THAN 200 MILES IS QUITE
EXTREME AND QUITE UNUSUAL.

THE RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW ENHANCED
LINE OF CONVECTION...MAYBE WITHOUT THUNDER...BUT SOME VERY GUSTY
WINDS...MAYBE EVEN SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE TACONICS THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...BUT MORE LIKELY THE
POTENTIALLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE MORE BRIEF...
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION SO NO ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. STILL SUGGESTING 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS IN SOME AREAS TOMORROW.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST
AREAS...THEN DROP RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR SPREADS
EAST. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND THE COLD AIR IN PLACE SO
THAT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SOME SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN MOST AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.
EVEN VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SLEET AND SNOW. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 20S...WITH A
FEW TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. IT SHOULD BE QUITE BREEZY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WELL.

ON WEDNESDAY...IT SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL
BREEZY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. STILL...WITH STRONG SUN...HIGHS
SHOULD GET SOLIDLY INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50...BUT A LITTLE COOLER
IN HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 20S...TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS THURSDAY AND WITH SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS...

THU NT-FRI...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXTEND INTO
THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING OUR REGION
GENERALLY DRY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP OR EXPAND INTO AT
LEAST SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE FRI OR FRI NT AS THE
ATLANTIC FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH FRI MAX TEMPS REACHING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
OVER 60 IN THE VALLEYS...WITH 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THU NT/FRI
AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER
30S WITHIN VALLEY AREAS.

FRI NT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNPHASED AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY
LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR SAT...TAPERING TO
MAINLY SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE BULK OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR...OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS SAT-SUN
DUE TO THE EXPECTATION FOR LIMITED SUNSHINE...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN
THE 50S...AND OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SLIGHTLY
MILDER BY MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING AROUND 60 IN VALLEYS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /126Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY...PASSING ACROSS THE TAF SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SPOTTY AND HAVE MAINLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES...BUT A STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
SUNRISE AND HAVE INDICATED MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE
TAF SITES AFTER 08-09Z.

FROM MID MORNING ON EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN WITH MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES INTO MONDAY EVENING. DURING THE
EVENING IT WILL LIKELY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF (GENERALLY AFT 16/01Z). AT KPOU THE STEADY PCPN
SHOULD END BEFORE IT GETS COLD ENOUGH FOR MIXED PCPN. AFTER ABOUT
04-05Z EXPECT JUST FLURRIES AT THE TAF SITES WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 12-18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 27
KTS FORECAST. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING (AROUND SUNRISE). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AND REMAIN STRONG. WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30.0
DEFINITE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IT WILL TURN DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASE AND SO DO SHOWERS. A SOAKING RAIN IS
VERY LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL AREAS SEEING WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN
HIGHER TERRAIN.

MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND BRISK.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

OUR NORTHERN AREAS ARE STILL DEALING WITH SNOWMELT WHICH HAS ALREADY
SWELLED MANY OF THE RIVERS IN THE REGION. IT LOOKS AS IF 1-2+ INCHES
OF RAINFALL WILL FALL STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND END UP AS A
LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ALL AREAS COULD SEE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS













000
FXUS61 KBTV 150525
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED...ENDING AS
WET SNOW AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER
IS THEN EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT TUESDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHICH CONTINUES TO PROMOTE
SNOWMELT AND WE ARE SEEING RIVERS RISING EARLY THIS MORNING...SOME
OF WHICH HAVE GONE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FURTHER EAST BASED ON RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY THEN ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS VERY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY
AN ANAFRONTAL TYPE FRONTAL ZONE DEPICTED ON MOST MODELS...WITH SCT
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A STEADY/SOAKING RAINFALL BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES VERY TRICKY AND GIVEN UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES...WILL OFFER
MILDEST READINGS EAST IN THE MORNING THROUGH NOON (60S TO NEAR
70)...WITH READINGS CRASHING THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BY AS MUCH AS 20F IN ONE HOUR AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CROSSES. WINDS CONTINUE QUITE GUSTY...ESP EAST AND
PARTICULARLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE CHANNELED PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTH FLOW WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SPEEDS. AS A RESULT...WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS INCLUDING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ELSEWHERE...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS
APPEAR REASONABLE.

AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SHARPLY SUCH THAT P-TYPE WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW...THEN ALL SNOW BY AFTERNOON IN NRN NY...AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NW TO SE IN VERMONT. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. WET ACCUMULATIONS
RELATIVELY MINOR WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...1-3 IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FT...AND PERHAPS 2-5 AT SUMMIT LEVEL.
QUITE THE CHANCE FROM TODAY TO SAY THE LEAST. LOWS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN COLDER NRN
MTN LOCALES.

THEREAFTER...SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS QUIET AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A CHILLY DAY ON TAP FOR SURE
THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
HIGHS IN MOST SPOTS ONLY IN THE 30S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 40S
SOUTH. THEN CLR/PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.
LOWS 15 TO 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLE PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ALLOWING FOR GENTLE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN AROUND TO SOUTHERLY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
THEN MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY AS 850 TEMPS RISE TO 0 TO +3C.

AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
ON SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY BRINGING AN AVERAGE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD OR WARM TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL LOOKING AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 850 TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 0C GIVING US HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S BUT HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS PLENTIFUL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
AT MOST TAF SITES THIS EVENING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. EXCEPTION IS BTV
WHERE WIND GUSTS 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
EVENING...AFFECTING MAINLY MSS/SLK WITH OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE LESS TONIGHT AT SITES FURTHER EAST.

SHARP COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 12Z
AND BE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY 18Z. VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED
VALLEYS (PBG/BTV/RUT/MSS) REACHING 30 TO 40 KNOTS BTWN 12Z-16Z
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF
MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE...ALONG WITH LLWS IN BOTH DIRECTION
AND SPEED. ALSO...EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR WITH THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...WITH SLK MIXING WITH SNOW BY 18Z
TUESDAY...AND A MIX POSSIBLE AT REST OF SITES TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING OVERNIGHT
AS SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF
MID-AFTERNOON CONTINUED SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTES TO SURFACE RUNOFF.
WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG
QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH THE
TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN
SOME CASES INTO MINOR FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE RIVERS WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE
ARE THE AUSABLE...WINOOSKI AND THE OTTER CREEK...THOUGH NUMEROUS
OTHER WATERSHEDS MAY IN FACT FLOOD AS WELL WITH MINOR LOWLAND
FIELD FLOODING BEING A NEAR CERTAINTY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011-017>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS/TABER
HYDROLOGY...JMG









000
FXUS61 KALY 150446
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IT WILL TURN DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
     RENSSELAER COUNTY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FLOOD WATCH DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING IN TROY AS RAIN AND SNOW MELT BUILDS
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...GENERALLY LIGHT WITH A FEW ELEMENTS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL. THESE ARE ARE WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH WAS WORKING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME.

INITIALLY...THESE SHOWERS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO WORK MUCH FURTHER
EAST DUE TO A WAVE LIKELY FORMING ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...BROAD
ASCENT AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA BY DAWN.

TEMPERATURES WERE INCREDIBLY MILD ONCE MORE...STILL WELL INTO THE
60S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREAS...AND EVEN 50S NORTH. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW FALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LEFT LOW
TEMPERATURES ALONE.

RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
RAIN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARD WET BULBS...BUT STILL ONLY
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG UPPER IMPULSE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. CATCHES UP WITH THE FRONT
CURRENTLY FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY
AND RACES EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OVER OUR REGION NOW SHOULD DECREASE AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...SOME INSTABILITY ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE EXTREME FORCING MECHANISMS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER JET ENERGY SHOULD
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE HUDSON RIVER INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
OF AROUND 20C IN A DISTANCE OF LESS THAN 200 MILES IS QUITE
EXTREME AND QUITE UNUSUAL.

THE RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW ENHANCED
LINE OF CONVECTION...MAYBE WITHOUT THUNDER...BUT SOME VERY GUSTY
WINDS...MAYBE EVEN SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE TACONICS THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...BUT MORE LIKELY THE
POTENTIALLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE MORE BRIEF...
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION SO NO ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. STILL SUGGESTING 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS IN SOME AREAS TOMORROW.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST
AREAS...THEN DROP RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR SPREADS
EAST. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND THE COLD AIR IN PLACE SO
THAT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SOME SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN MOST AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.
EVEN VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SLEET AND SNOW. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 20S...WITH A
FEW TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. IT SHOULD BE QUITE BREEZY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WELL.

ON WEDNESDAY...IT SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL
BREEZY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. STILL...WITH STRONG SUN...HIGHS
SHOULD GET SOLIDLY INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50...BUT A LITTLE COOLER
IN HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 20S...TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS THURSDAY AND WITH SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS...

THU NT-FRI...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXTEND INTO
THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING OUR REGION
GENERALLY DRY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP OR EXPAND INTO AT
LEAST SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE FRI OR FRI NT AS THE
ATLANTIC FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH FRI MAX TEMPS REACHING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
OVER 60 IN THE VALLEYS...WITH 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THU NT/FRI
AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER
30S WITHIN VALLEY AREAS.

FRI NT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNPHASED AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY
LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR SAT...TAPERING TO
MAINLY SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE BULK OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR...OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS SAT-SUN
DUE TO THE EXPECTATION FOR LIMITED SUNSHINE...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN
THE 50S...AND OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SLIGHTLY
MILDER BY MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING AROUND 60 IN VALLEYS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY...PASSING ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME
SLEET OR WET SNOW MAY MIX IN AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF TOWARD 00Z/WED.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR VSBYS AT
KGFL. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SPREAD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. SOME IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF AS
WELL...WITH A SMALLER CHANCE AT KPOU. MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY DUE TO LOW CIGS...AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN OR SHOWERS.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT 10-20 KTS
WITH SOME GUSTS 25-30 KTS...STRONGEST AT KALB DUE TO FUNNELING UP
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 10-16 KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB LATER TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AT THE SFC...SO SOME LLWS GROUPS WERE PLACED IN AT KPOU AND
KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40-50
KTS WITH THE SFC WINDS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KTS. KALB
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...SO NO LLWS WAS ADDED AT THIS TIME. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 10-20 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KT...SHIFTING INTO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 20Z-24Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30.0
DEFINITE SHSN. WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IT WILL TURN DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASE AND SO DO SHOWERS. A SOAKING RAIN IS
VERY LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL AREAS SEEING WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN
HIGHER TERRAIN.

MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND BRISK.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DELTA DAM ON THE UPPER
MOHAWK RIVER UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...AS RECENT RAINFALL AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE RESERVOIR ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING ALSO CONTINUES
FOR RIVERBANK DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW MELT AND RAIN.

OUR NORTHERN AREAS ARE STILL DEALING WITH SNOWMELT WHICH HAS
ALREADY SWELLED MANY OF THE RIVERS IN THE REGION. IT LOOKS AS IF
1-2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL FALL STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FROM MIDDAY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND END
UP AS A LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ALL AREAS COULD SEE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS










000
FXUS61 KALY 150305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1105 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IT WILL TURN DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...RENSSELAER COUNTY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FLOOD WATCH DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING IN TROY AS RAIN AND SNOW MELT BUILDS
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY...

AS OF 1055 PM EDT...THE PREVIOUS LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS HAS
DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE UPON REACHING THE SOUTHEAST
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE REGION
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES FURTHER S
AND E INTO THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SARATOGA REGION AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
AS THE MAIN FORCING WITH TODAY/S SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO
CANADA...WHILE THE NEXT IMPULSE ORGANIZES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.

SO...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF NIGHT IN MOST AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK...WHEN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
SOME SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AT TIMES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
RAIN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARD WET BULBS...BUT STILL ONLY
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG UPPER IMPULSE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. CATCHES UP WITH THE FRONT
CURRENTLY FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY
AND RACES EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OVER OUR REGION NOW SHOULD DECREASE AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...SOME INSTABILITY ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE EXTREME FORCING MECHANISMS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER JET ENERGY SHOULD
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE HUDSON RIVER INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
OF AROUND 20C IN A DISTANCE OF LESS THAN 200 MILES IS QUITE
EXTREME AND QUITE UNUSUAL.

THE RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW ENHANCED
LINE OF CONVECTION...MAYBE WITHOUT THUNDER...BUT SOME VERY GUSTY
WINDS...MAYBE EVEN SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE TACONICS THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...BUT MORE LIKELY THE
POTENTIALLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE MORE BRIEF...
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION SO NO ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. STILL SUGGESTING 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS IN SOME AREAS TOMORROW.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST
AREAS...THEN DROP RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR SPREADS
EAST. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND THE COLD AIR IN PLACE SO
THAT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SOME SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN MOST AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.
EVEN VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SLEET AND SNOW. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 20S...WITH A
FEW TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. IT SHOULD BE QUITE BREEZY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WELL.

ON WEDNESDAY...IT SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL
BREEZY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. STILL...WITH STRONG SUN...HIGHS
SHOULD GET SOLIDLY INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50...BUT A LITTLE COOLER
IN HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 20S...TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS THURSDAY AND WITH SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS...

THU NT-FRI...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXTEND INTO
THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING OUR REGION
GENERALLY DRY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP OR EXPAND INTO AT
LEAST SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE FRI OR FRI NT AS THE
ATLANTIC FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH FRI MAX TEMPS REACHING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
OVER 60 IN THE VALLEYS...WITH 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THU NT/FRI
AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER
30S WITHIN VALLEY AREAS.

FRI NT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNPHASED AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY
LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR SAT...TAPERING TO
MAINLY SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE BULK OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR...OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS SAT-SUN
DUE TO THE EXPECTATION FOR LIMITED SUNSHINE...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN
THE 50S...AND OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SLIGHTLY
MILDER BY MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING AROUND 60 IN VALLEYS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY...PASSING ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME
SLEET OR WET SNOW MAY MIX IN AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF TOWARD 00Z/WED.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR VSBYS AT
KGFL. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SPREAD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. SOME IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF AS
WELL...WITH A SMALLER CHANCE AT KPOU. MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY DUE TO LOW CIGS...AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN OR SHOWERS.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT 10-20 KTS
WITH SOME GUSTS 25-30 KTS...STRONGEST AT KALB DUE TO FUNNELING UP
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 10-16 KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB LATER TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AT THE SFC...SO SOME LLWS GROUPS WERE PLACED IN AT KPOU AND
KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40-50
KTS WITH THE SFC WINDS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KTS. KALB
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...SO NO LLWS WAS ADDED AT THIS TIME. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 10-20 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KT...SHIFTING INTO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 20Z-24Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30.0 DEFINITE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IT WILL TURN DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASE AND SO DO SHOWERS. A SOAKING RAIN IS
VERY LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL AREAS SEEING WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN
HIGHER TERRAIN.

MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND BRISK.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DELTA DAM ON THE UPPER
MOHAWK RIVER UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...AS RECENT RAINFALL AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE RESERVOIR ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING ALSO CONTINUES
FOR RIVERBANK DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW MELT AND RAIN.

OUR NORTHERN AREAS ARE STILL DEALING WITH SNOWMELT WHICH HAS
ALREADY SWELLED MANY OF THE RIVERS IN THE REGION. IT LOOKS AS IF
1-2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL FALL STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FROM MIDDAY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND END
UP AS A LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ALL AREAS COULD SEE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 150238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED...ENDING AS
WET SNOW AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER
IS THEN EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1027 PM EDT MONDAY...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR. SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD FROM SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN VERMONT THIS
EVENING...A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. STILL
EXPECTING THIS INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN AS IT MAKES
ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT. THREAT OF THUNDER HAS DIMINISHED.
CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPS/WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM DAY ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN
A FEW SPOTS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD WHERE A FEW SPOTS
(INCLUDING KBTV) HAVE ECLIPSED THE 80F MARK. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS
IS THE FIRST 80F OCCURRENCE SINCE OCT 7 OF LAST YEAR. AS WE
PROGRESS INTO TONIGHT...MILD/BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
P-GRAD REMAINS TIGHT AHEAD OF SLOWLY ADVANCING...YET VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/ISOLD
THUNDER ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN NY AND PERHAPS FAR NWRN
VT LATER TONIGHT OR TOWARD MORNING. SOME MINOR CONCERN OF ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE GUSTS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SLV SHOULD ANY OF THE
ACTIVITY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AS WE`RE
IN A CLASSIC LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HOLDING VERY MILD IN MOST SPOTS UNDER THE BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...MAINLY 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE SLV WHERE STRONG FRONTAL
ZONE WILL ENCROACH TOWARD DAYBREAK AND A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. HAVE LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THIS AREA GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY THEN ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS VERY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY
AN ANAFRONTAL TYPE FRONTAL ZONE DEPICTED ON MOST MODELS...WITH SCT
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A STEADY/SOAKING RAINFALL BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES VERY TRICKY AND GIVEN UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES...WILL OFFER
MILDEST READINGS EAST IN THE MORNING THROUGH NOON (60S TO NEAR
70)...WITH READINGS CRASHING THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BY AS MUCH AS 20F IN ONE HOUR AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CROSSES. WINDS CONTINUE QUITE GUSTY...ESP EAST AND
PARTICULARLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE CHANNELED PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTH FLOW WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SPEEDS. AS A RESULT...WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS INCLUDING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ELSEWHERE...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS
APPEAR REASONABLE.

AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SHARPLY SUCH THAT P-TYPE WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW...THEN ALL SNOW BY AFTEROON IN NRN NY...AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NW TO SE IN VERMONT. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. WET ACCUMULATIONS
RELATIVELY MINOR WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...1-3 IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FT...AND PERHAPS 2-5 AT SUMMIT LEVEL.
QUITE THE CHANCE FROM TODAY TO SAY THE LEAST. LOWS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN COLDER NRN
MTN LOCALES.

THEREAFTER...SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS QUIET AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A CHILLY DAY ON TAP FOR SURE
THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
HIGHS IN MOST SPOTS ONLY IN THE 30S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 40S
SOUTH. THEN CLR/PTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSUR OVERHEAD AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.
LOWS 15 TO 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLE PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ALLOWING FOR GENTLE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN AROUND TO SOUTHERLY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
THEN MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY AS 850 TEMPS RISE TO 0 TO +3C.

AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
ON SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY BRINGING AN AVERAGE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD OR WARM TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL LOOKING AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 850 TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 0C GIVING US HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S BUT HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS PLENTIFUL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
AT MOST TAF SITES THIS EVENING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. EXCEPTION IS BTV
WHERE WIND GUSTS 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
EVENING...AFFECTING MAINLY MSS/SLK WITH OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE LESS TONIGHT AT SITES FURTHER EAST.

SHARP COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 12Z
AND BE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY 18Z. VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED
VALLEYS (PBG/BTV/RUT/MSS) REACHING 30 TO 40 KNOTS BTWN 12Z-16Z
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF
MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE...ALONG WITH LLWS IN BOTH DIRECTION
AND SPEED. ALSO...EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR WITH THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...WITH SLK MIXING WITH SNOW BY 18Z
TUESDAY...AND A MIX POSSIBLE AT REST OF SITES TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING OVERNIGHT
AS SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF
MID-AFTERNOON CONTINUED SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTES TO SURFACE RUNOFF.
WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG
QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH THE
TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN
SOME CASES INTO MINOR FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE RIVERS WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE
ARE THE AUSABLE...WINOOSKI AND THE OTTER CREEK...THOUGH NUMEROUS
OTHER WATERSHEDS MAY IN FACT FLOOD AS WELL WITH MINOR LOWLAND
FIELD FLOODING BEING A NEAR CERTAINTY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VTZ001-002-005-
     009-011-017>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS/TABER
HYDROLOGY...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 150054
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
854 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED...ENDING AS
WET SNOW AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER
IS THEN EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 830 PM EDT MONDAY...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR. SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING...A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. STILL
EXPECTING THIS INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN AS IT MAKES
ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT....SO HAVE NOT CHANGED POPS FOR MOST
OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME. HAVE LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR
THE EVENING...BUT NOTHING IN WAY OF LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED AT
THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ABATING
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM DAY ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN
A FEW SPOTS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD WHERE A FEW SPOTS
(INCLUDING KBTV) HAVE ECLIPSED THE 80F MARK. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS
IS THE FIRST 80F OCCURRENCE SINCE OCT 7 OF LAST YEAR. AS WE
PROGRESS INTO TONIGHT...MILD/BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
P-GRAD REMAINS TIGHT AHEAD OF SLOWLY ADVANCING...YET VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/ISOLD
THUNDER ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN NY AND PERHAPS FAR NWRN
VT LATER TONIGHT OR TOWARD MORNING. SOME MINOR CONCERN OF ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE GUSTS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SLV SHOULD ANY OF THE
ACTIVITY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AS WE`RE
IN A CLASSIC LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HOLDING VERY MILD IN MOST SPOTS UNDER THE BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...MAINLY 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE SLV WHERE STRONG FRONTAL
ZONE WILL ENCROACH TOWARD DAYBREAK AND A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. HAVE LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THIS AREA GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY THEN ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS VERY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY
AN ANAFRONTAL TYPE FRONTAL ZONE DEPICTED ON MOST MODELS...WITH SCT
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A STEADY/SOAKING RAINFALL BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES VERY TRICKY AND GIVEN UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES...WILL OFFER
MILDEST READINGS EAST IN THE MORNING THROUGH NOON (60S TO NEAR
70)...WITH READINGS CRASHING THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BY AS MUCH AS 20F IN ONE HOUR AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CROSSES. WINDS CONTINUE QUITE GUSTY...ESP EAST AND
PARTICULARLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE CHANNELED PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTH FLOW WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SPEEDS. AS A RESULT...WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS INCLUDING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ELSEWHERE...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS
APPEAR REASONABLE.

AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SHARPLY SUCH THAT P-TYPE WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW...THEN ALL SNOW BY AFTEROON IN NRN NY...AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NW TO SE IN VERMONT. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. WET ACCUMULATIONS
RELATIVELY MINOR WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...1-3 IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FT...AND PERHAPS 2-5 AT SUMMIT LEVEL.
QUITE THE CHANCE FROM TODAY TO SAY THE LEAST. LOWS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN COLDER NRN
MTN LOCALES.

THEREAFTER...SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS QUIET AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A CHILLY DAY ON TAP FOR SURE
THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
HIGHS IN MOST SPOTS ONLY IN THE 30S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 40S
SOUTH. THEN CLR/PTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSUR OVERHEAD AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.
LOWS 15 TO 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLE PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ALLOWING FOR GENTLE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN AROUND TO SOUTHERLY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
THEN MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY AS 850 TEMPS RISE TO 0 TO +3C.

AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
ON SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY BRINGING AN AVERAGE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD OR WARM TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL LOOKING AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 850 TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 0C GIVING US HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S BUT HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS PLENTIFUL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
AT MOST TAF SITES THIS EVENING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. EXCEPTION IS BTV
WHERE WIND GUSTS 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
EVENING...AFFECTING MAINLY MSS/SLK WITH OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE LESS TONIGHT AT SITES FURTHER EAST.

SHARP COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 12Z
AND BE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY 18Z. VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED
VALLEYS (PBG/BTV/RUT/MSS) REACHING 30 TO 40 KNOTS BTWN 12Z-16Z
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF
MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE...ALONG WITH LLWS IN BOTH DIRECTION
AND SPEED. ALSO...EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR WITH THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...WITH SLK MIXING WITH SNOW BY 18Z
TUESDAY...AND A MIX POSSIBLE AT REST OF SITES TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING OVERNIGHT
AS SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF
MID-AFTERNOON CONTINUED SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTES TO SURFACE RUNOFF.
WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG
QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH THE
TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN
SOME CASES INTO MINOR FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE RIVERS WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE
ARE THE AUSABLE...WINOOSKI AND THE OTTER CREEK...THOUGH NUMEROUS
OTHER WATERSHEDS MAY IN FACT FLOOD AS WELL WITH MINOR LOWLAND
FIELD FLOODING BEING A NEAR CERTAINTY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VTZ001-002-005-
     009-011-017>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS/TABER
HYDROLOGY...JMG







000
FXUS61 KALY 150013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
813 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IT WILL TURN DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...RENSSELAER COUNTY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FLOOD WATCH DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING IN TROY AS RAIN AND SNOW MELT BUILDS
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY...

AS OF 8 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS REACHED THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND FAST APPROACHING THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF OF MOD-HVY RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS LINE. WE EXPECT THIS LINE TO CONTINUE
MOVING EAST...ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
S/E AS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS LINE SHOULD THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN...SHIFT EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS THE MAIN
FORCING SHIFTS INTO SE CANADA. HAVE RAISED POPS IN THESE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS TO CATEGORICAL/LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...LATER TONIGHT...MORE RAIN SHOULD BUILD EAST AND BY
SUNRISE...THERE SHOULD BE RAIN AT LEAST OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD SCRAPE
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT AS WELL.

RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
RAIN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARD WET BULBS...BUT STILL ONLY
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG UPPER IMPULSE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. CATCHES UP WITH THE FRONT
CURRENTLY FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY
AND RACES EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OVER OUR REGION NOW SHOULD DECREASE AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...SOME INSTABILITY ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE EXTREME FORCING MECHANISMS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER JET ENERGY SHOULD
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE HUDSON RIVER INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
OF AROUND 20C IN A DISTANCE OF LESS THAN 200 MILES IS QUITE
EXTREME AND QUITE UNUSUAL.

THE RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW ENHANCED
LINE OF CONVECTION...MAYBE WITHOUT THUNDER...BUT SOME VERY GUSTY
WINDS...MAYBE EVEN SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE TACONICS THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...BUT MORE LIKELY THE
POTENTIALLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE MORE BRIEF...
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION SO NO ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. STILL SUGGESTING 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS IN SOME AREAS TOMORROW.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST
AREAS...THEN DROP RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR SPREADS
EAST. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND THE COLD AIR IN PLACE SO
THAT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SOME SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN MOST AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.
EVEN VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SLEET AND SNOW. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 20S...WITH A
FEW TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. IT SHOULD BE QUITE BREEZY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WELL.

ON WEDNESDAY...IT SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL
BREEZY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. STILL...WITH STRONG SUN...HIGHS
SHOULD GET SOLIDLY INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50...BUT A LITTLE COOLER
IN HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 20S...TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS THURSDAY AND WITH SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS...

THU NT-FRI...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXTEND INTO
THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING OUR REGION
GENERALLY DRY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP OR EXPAND INTO AT
LEAST SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE FRI OR FRI NT AS THE
ATLANTIC FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH FRI MAX TEMPS REACHING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
OVER 60 IN THE VALLEYS...WITH 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THU NT/FRI
AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER
30S WITHIN VALLEY AREAS.

FRI NT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNPHASED AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY
LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR SAT...TAPERING TO
MAINLY SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE BULK OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR...OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS SAT-SUN
DUE TO THE EXPECTATION FOR LIMITED SUNSHINE...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN
THE 50S...AND OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SLIGHTLY
MILDER BY MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING AROUND 60 IN VALLEYS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY...PASSING ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME
SLEET OR WET SNOW MAY MIX IN AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF TOWARD 00Z/WED.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR VSBYS AT
KGFL. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SPREAD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. SOME IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF AS
WELL...WITH A SMALLER CHANCE AT KPOU. MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY DUE TO LOW CIGS...AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN OR SHOWERS.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT 10-20 KTS
WITH SOME GUSTS 25-30 KTS...STRONGEST AT KALB DUE TO FUNNELING UP
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 10-16 KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB LATER TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AT THE SFC...SO SOME LLWS GROUPS WERE PLACED IN AT KPOU AND
KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40-50
KTS WITH THE SFC WINDS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KTS. KALB
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...SO NO LLWS WAS ADDED AT THIS TIME. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 10-20 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KT...SHIFTING INTO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 20Z-24Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30.0 DEFINITE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IT WILL TURN DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASE AND SO DO SHOWERS. A SOAKING RAIN IS
VERY LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL AREAS SEEING WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN
HIGHER TERRAIN.

MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND BRISK.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DELTA DAM ON THE UPPER
MOHAWK RIVER UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...AS RECENT RAINFALL AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE RESERVOIR ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING ALSO CONTINUES
FOR RIVERBANK DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW MELT AND RAIN.

OUR NORTHERN AREAS ARE STILL DEALING WITH SNOWMELT WHICH HAS
ALREADY SWELLED MANY OF THE RIVERS IN THE REGION. IT LOOKS AS IF
1-2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL FALL STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FROM MIDDAY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND END
UP AS A LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ALL AREAS COULD SEE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 141959
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
359 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IT WILL TURN DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...RENSSELAER COUNTY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FLOOD WATCH DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING IN TROY AS RAIN AND SNOW MELT BUILDS
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY...

CLOUDS AND RAIN IS BUILDING EAST AND BY SUNRISE...THERE SHOULD BE
RAIN AT LEAST OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE COULD BE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD SCRAPE THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT AS WELL.

RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
RAIN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARD WET BULBS...BUT STILL ONLY
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG UPPER IMPULSE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. CATCHES UP WITH THE FRONT
CURRENTLY FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY
AND RACES EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OVER OUR REGION NOW SHOULD DECREASE AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...SOME INSTABILITY ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE EXTREME FORCING MECHANISMS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER JET ENERGY SHOULD
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE HUDSON RIVER INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
OF AROUND 20C IN A DISTANCE OF LESS THAN 200 MILES IS QUITE
EXTREME AND QUITE UNUSUAL.

THE RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW ENHANCED
LINE OF CONVECTION...MAYBE WITHOUT THUNDER...BUT SOME VERY GUSTY
WINDS...MAYBE EVEN SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE TACONICS THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...BUT MORE LIKELY THE
POTENTIALLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE MORE BRIEF...
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION SO NO ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. STILL SUGGESTING 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS IN SOME AREAS TOMORROW.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST
AREAS...THEN DROP RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR SPREADS
EAST. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND THE COLD AIR IN PLACE SO
THAT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SOME SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN MOST AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.
EVEN VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SLEET AND SNOW. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 20S...WITH A
FEW TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. IT SHOULD BE QUITE BREEZY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WELL.

ON WEDNESDAY...IT SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL
BREEZY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. STILL...WITH STRONG SUN...HIGHS
SHOULD GET SOLIDLY INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50...BUT A LITTLE COOLER
IN HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 20S...TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS THURSDAY AND WITH SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS...

THU NT-FRI...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXTEND INTO
THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING OUR REGION
GENERALLY DRY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP OR EXPAND INTO AT
LEAST SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE FRI OR FRI NT AS THE
ATLANTIC FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH FRI MAX TEMPS REACHING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
OVER 60 IN THE VALLEYS...WITH 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THU NT/FRI
AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER
30S WITHIN VALLEY AREAS.

FRI NT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNPHASED AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY
LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR SAT...TAPERING TO
MAINLY SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE BULK OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR...OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS SAT-SUN
DUE TO THE EXPECTATION FOR LIMITED SUNSHINE...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN
THE 50S...AND OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SLIGHTLY
MILDER BY MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING AROUND 60 IN VALLEYS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY...ERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL TUESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...BUT THE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING AND LOWERING AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN TERMS
OF CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPACT THE REGION BTWN 06Z-12Z/TUE WITH
SOME LOW STRATUS MOVING IN...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-20 KTS
WITH SOME GUSTS 25-35 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE AT
KALB DUE TO FUNNELING UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE WINDS WILL
PERSIST AT 10-16 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AT THE SFC THAT LLWS GROUPS WERE PLACED IN AT
KPOU AT 04Z/TUE...10Z/TUE AT KPSF...AND 12Z/TUE AT KGFL. THE 2KFT
AGL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS WITH THE SFC WINDS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KTS. KALB WILL REMAIN GUSTY...SO NO LLWS
WAS ADDED AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30.0 DEFINITE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IT WILL TURN DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASE AND SO DO SHOWERS. A SOAKING RAIN IS
VERY LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL AREAS SEEING WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN
HIGHER TERRAIN.

MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND BRISK.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DELTA DAM ON THE UPPER
MOHAWK RIVER UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...AS RECENT RAINFALL AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE RESERVOIR ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING ALSO CONTINUES
FOR RIVERBANK DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW MELT AND RAIN.

OUR NORTHERN AREAS ARE STILL DEALING WITH SNOWMELT WHICH HAS
ALREADY SWELLED MANY OF THE RIVERS IN THE REGION. IT LOOKS AS IF
1-2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL FALL STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FROM MIDDAY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND END
UP AS A LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ALL AREAS COULD SEE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 141902
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
302 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED...ENDING AS
WET SNOW AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER
IS THEN EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...VERY WARM DAY ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW SPOTS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD WHERE A FEW SPOTS (INCLUDING KBTV) HAVE ECLIPSED THE 80F
MARK. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS IS THE FIRST 80F OCCURRANCE SINCE OCT
7 OF LAST YEAR. AS WE PROGRESS INTO TONIGHT...MILD/BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS P-GRAD REMAINS TIGHT AHEAD OF SLOWLY
ADVANCING...YET VERY STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN
GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/ISOLD THUNDER ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN NY
AND PERHAPS FAR NWRN VT LATER TONIGHT OR TOWARD MORNING. SOME
MINOR CONCERN OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE GUSTS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SLV SHOULD ANY OF THE ACTIVITY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. NOT LOOKING
AT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN
EYE ON THINGS AS WE`RE IN A CLASSIC LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HOLDING VERY MILD IN
MOST SPOTS UNDER THE BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...MAINLY 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD
BE SLV WHERE STRONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL ENCROACH TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. HAVE LOWS
IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THIS
AREA GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY THEN ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS VERY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY
AN ANAFRONTAL TYPE FRONTAL ZONE DEPICTED ON MOST MODELS...WITH SCT
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A STEADY/SOAKING RAINFALL BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES VERY TRICKY AND GIVEN UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES...WILL OFFER
MILDEST READINGS EAST IN THE MORNING THROUGH NOON (60S TO NEAR
70)...WITH READINGS CRASHING THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BY AS MUCH AS 20F IN ONE HOUR AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CROSSES. WINDS CONTINUE QUITE GUSTY...ESP EAST AND
PARTICULARLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE CHANNELED PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTH FLOW WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SPEEDS. AS A RESULT...WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS INCLUDING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ELSEWHERE...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS
APPEAR REASONABLE.

AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SHARPLY SUCH THAT P-TYPE WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW...THEN ALL SNOW BY AFTEROON IN NRN NY...AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NW TO SE IN VERMONT. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. WET ACCUMULATIONS
RELATIVELY MINOR WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...1-3 IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FT...AND PERHAPS 2-5 AT SUMMIT LEVEL.
QUITE THE CHANCE FROM TODAY TO SAY THE LEAST. LOWS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN COLDER NRN
MTN LOCALES.

THEREAFTER...SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS QUIET AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A CHILLY DAY ON TAP FOR SURE
THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
HIGHS IN MOST SPOTS ONLY IN THE 30S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 40S
SOUTH. THEN CLR/PTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSUR OVERHEAD AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.
LOWS 15 TO 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLE PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ALLOWING FOR GENTLE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN AROUND TO SOUTHERLY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
THEN MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY AS 850 TEMPS RISE TO 0 TO +3C.

AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
ON SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY BRINGING AN AVERAGE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD OR WARM TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL LOOKING AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 850 TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 0C GIVING US HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S BUT HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS PLENTIFUL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS AFTN/EVENING WL BE
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO 35 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY CHCS FOR SHOWERS AT
MSS/SLK. CRNT ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACRS OUR
CWA...WHICH IS PRODUCING SOUTH WIND GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35 KNOTS
ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THESE WINDS WL CONT THIS AFTN AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN TWD SUNSET AS MIXING DECREASES...ESPECIALLY MTN VALLEY
SITES OF MPV/SLK. OTHERWISE...CRNT RADAR SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ACRS
WESTERN NY THIS AFTN...WHICH WL IMPACT MSS BTWN 21-01Z AND SLK
BTWN 22Z-02Z THIS EVENING WITH VIS BTWN 4-6SM AND CIGS BROKEN TO
OVERCAST BTWN 2500 AND 4000 FEET...BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE. THINKING PRECIP
WL STAY OVER NORTHERN NY AND NOT IMPACT CPV AND POINTS EAST. GIVEN
GOOD BL MIXING ALSO NOT EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.

ON TUE A SHARP SFC COLD FRNT WL APPROACH THE SLV BY 12Z AND BE
INTO THE CPV BY 18Z. VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WITH GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED VALLEYS
(PBG/BTV/RUT/MSS) REACHING 40 TO 45 KNOTS BTWN 12Z-16Z TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL
DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC COLD FRNT WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF MODERATE TO
SEVERE TURBULENCE...ALONG WITH LLVL WS IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED.
ALSO...THINKING MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR WL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FROPA PRECIP...WITH SLK MIXING WITH RAIN/SNOW BY 18Z TUES.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WL BE ACRS THE CPV AROUND 18Z TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
EXPECTED BTWN 18Z-21Z TUESDAY AT BTV/MPV/RUT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE FROPA PRECIP WITH A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...WITH VIS LESS THAN 3 MILES. RAIN CHANGES TO
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST BTWN 18Z (SLK)-00Z (MPV) WITH ADDITIONAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON TUES EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
SLOWLY IMPROVE AFT 06Z WEDS WITH VFR RETURNING BY WEDS SFC HIGH
PRES WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WEDS INTO THURS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF
MID-AFTERNOON CONTINUED SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTES TO SURFACE RUNOFF.
WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG
QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH THE
TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN
SOME CASES INTO MINOR FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE RIVERS WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE
ARE THE AUSABLE...WINOOSKI AND THE OTTER CREEK...THOUGH NUMEROUS
OTHER WATERSHEDS MAY IN FACT FLOOD AS WELL WITH MINOR LOWLAND
FIELD FLOODING BEING A NEAR CERTAINTY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VTZ001-002-005-
     009-011-017>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 141822
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
222 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED...ENDING AS
WET SNOW AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER
IS THEN EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...VERY WARM DAY ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW SPOTS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD WHERE A FEW SPOTS (INCLUDING KBTV) HAVE ECLIPSED THE 80F
MARK. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS IS THE FIRST 80F OCCURRANCE SINCE OCT
7 OF LAST YEAR. AS WE PROGRESS INTO TONIGHT...MILD/BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS P-GRAD REMAINS TIGHT AHEAD OF SLOWLY
ADVANCING...YET VERY STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN
GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/ISOLD THUNDER ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN NY
AND PERHAPS FAR NWRN VT LATER TONIGHT OR TOWARD MORNING. SOME
MINOR CONCERN OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE GUSTS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SLV SHOULD ANY OF THE ACTIVITY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. NOT LOOKING
AT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN
EYE ON THINGS AS WE`RE IN A CLASSIC LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HOLDING VERY MILD IN
MOST SPOTS UNDER THE BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...MAINLY 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD
BE SLV WHERE STRONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL ENCROACH TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. HAVE LOWS
IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THIS
AREA GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY THEN ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS VERY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY
AN ANAFRONTAL TYPE FRONTAL ZONE DEPICTED ON MOST MODELS...WITH SCT
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A STEADY/SOAKING RAINFALL BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES VERY TRICKY AND GIVEN UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES...WILL OFFER
MILDEST READINGS EAST IN THE MORNING THROUGH NOON (60S TO NEAR
70)...WITH READINGS CRASHING THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BY AS MUCH AS 20F IN ONE HOUR AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CROSSES. WINDS CONTINUE QUITE GUSTY...ESP EAST AND
PARTICULARLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE CHANNELED PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTH FLOW WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SPEEDS. AS A RESULT...WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS INCLUDING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ELSEWHERE...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS
APPEAR REASONABLE.

AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SHARPLY SUCH THAT P-TYPE WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW...THEN ALL SNOW BY AFTEROON IN NRN NY...AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NW TO SE IN VERMONT. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. WET ACCUMULATIONS
RELATIVELY MINOR WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...1-3 IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FT...AND PERHAPS 2-5 AT SUMMIT LEVEL.
QUITE THE CHANCE FROM TODAY TO SAY THE LEAST. LOWS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN COLDER NRN
MTN LOCALES.

THEREAFTER...SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS QUIET AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A CHILLY DAY ON TAP FOR SURE
THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
HIGHS IN MOST SPOTS ONLY IN THE 30S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 40S
SOUTH. THEN CLR/PTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSUR OVERHEAD AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.
LOWS 15 TO 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SYSTEM EXISTS ON SUNDAY WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...THUS STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS AFTN/EVENING WL BE
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO 35 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY CHCS FOR SHOWERS AT
MSS/SLK. CRNT ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACRS OUR
CWA...WHICH IS PRODUCING SOUTH WIND GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35 KNOTS
ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THESE WINDS WL CONT THIS AFTN AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN TWD SUNSET AS MIXING DECREASES...ESPECIALLY MTN VALLEY
SITES OF MPV/SLK. OTHERWISE...CRNT RADAR SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ACRS
WESTERN NY THIS AFTN...WHICH WL IMPACT MSS BTWN 21-01Z AND SLK
BTWN 22Z-02Z THIS EVENING WITH VIS BTWN 4-6SM AND CIGS BROKEN TO
OVERCAST BTWN 2500 AND 4000 FEET...BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE. THINKING PRECIP
WL STAY OVER NORTHERN NY AND NOT IMPACT CPV AND POINTS EAST. GIVEN
GOOD BL MIXING ALSO NOT EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.

ON TUE A SHARP SFC COLD FRNT WL APPROACH THE SLV BY 12Z AND BE
INTO THE CPV BY 18Z. VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WITH GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED VALLEYS
(PBG/BTV/RUT/MSS) REACHING 40 TO 45 KNOTS BTWN 12Z-16Z TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL
DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC COLD FRNT WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF MODERATE TO
SEVERE TURBULENCE...ALONG WITH LLVL WS IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED.
ALSO...THINKING MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR WL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FROPA PRECIP...WITH SLK MIXING WITH RAIN/SNOW BY 18Z TUES.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WL BE ACRS THE CPV AROUND 18Z TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
EXPECTED BTWN 18Z-21Z TUESDAY AT BTV/MPV/RUT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE FROPA PRECIP WITH A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...WITH VIS LESS THAN 3 MILES. RAIN CHANGES TO
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST BTWN 18Z (SLK)-00Z (MPV) WITH ADDITIONAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON TUES EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
SLOWLY IMPROVE AFT 06Z WEDS WITH VFR RETURNING BY WEDS SFC HIGH
PRES WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WEDS INTO THURS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF
MID-AFTERNOON CONTINUED SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTES TO SURFACE RUNOFF.
WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG
QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH THE
TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN
SOME CASES INTO MINOR FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE RIVERS WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE
ARE THE AUSABLE...WINOOSKI AND THE OTTER CREEK...THOUGH NUMEROUS
OTHER WATERSHEDS MAY IN FACT FLOOD AS WELL WITH MINOR LOWLAND
FIELD FLOODING BEING A NEAR CERTAINTY.


&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...JMG







000
FXUS61 KALY 141805
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
205 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL PRODUCE A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IT WILL TURN DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RISE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES WITH THE
FILTERED SUNSHINE. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SEEN ON RADAR WELL TO
THE WEST AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO DELAY THE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. A GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND HAS BEEN OBSERVED...AVERAGING 15
TO 25 MPH...GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH. SO...JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FLOOD WATCH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION/SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT...STILL WELL TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION...WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION. TONIGHT
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER. THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE EXCEPTIONALLY MILD ONCE MORE...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR THOSE
WISHING TO VIEW A TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE SCHEDULE FOR THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PWAT VALUES LOOK TO SPIKE TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF REGION
ON TUESDAY. THESE VALUES ARE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR. OUR REGION WILL BE UNDERNEATH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130+ KT
SLIGHTLY ANTICYLONIC CURVED UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAK. AT THE SAME
TIME..A LOW LEVEL JET TO 40KTS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW. ENTER A
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH STRONG SURFACE FORCING AND THE INGREDIENTS
LOOK TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A BRIEF BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT.

RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE
REGION AS ALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SUPPORT THIS KIND OF RAINFALL.
MORE ABOUT HYDRO ISSUES CAN BE FOUND IN OUR DISCUSSION. AGAIN...WE
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SLUG OF RAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE
LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION.

EARLIER...THERE WAS CONCERN THAT WE COULD HAVE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AS WELL ON TUESDAY. THAT IS CERTAINLY AN OUTSIDE
POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING THE STORM PREDICTION STORM CENTER`S
QUE...WE HAVE REMOVED ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM WORDING SINCE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION. SURFACE
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING...AND EVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LOOKS MEAGER. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FLAT. ONE THING TO CONSIDER
IS THERE WILL BE STRONG GRADIENT WIND WHICH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
EVEN WITHOUT ANY THUNDER. FOR NOW...WE STILL MENTION THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE IT WAS ALREADY PLACED IN THE GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY...50S
(BUT FALLING INTO THE 40S LATE) ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPSLOPE AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY. COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY BE USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO
TURN SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE. FURTHER EAST...SHOWERS COULD TURN BRIEFLY TO FLURRIES
BEFORE ENDING WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY EVERY BODY LOOKS TO PLUMMET TO FREEZING OR
LOWER REGION WIDE...DOWN TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS! A
GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MAINLY SUNNY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND IT HELPING
TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE HANDLING OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE
INTRODUCED HIGH CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...
LOWERING TO LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN MAINLY DRY OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY. DID NOT WANT TO GO HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS ON SATURDAY AT THIS TIME SINCE THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING WELL OFF THE COAST WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY...ERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL TUESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...BUT THE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING AND LOWERING AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN TERMS
OF CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPACT THE REGION BTWN 06Z-12Z/TUE WITH
SOME LOW STRATUS MOVING IN...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-20 KTS
WITH SOME GUSTS 25-35 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE AT
KALB DUE TO FUNNELING UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE WINDS WILL
PERSIST AT 10-16 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AT THE SFC THAT LLWS GROUPS WERE PLACED IN AT
KPOU AT 04Z/TUE...10Z/TUE AT KPSF...AND 12Z/TUE AT KGFL. THE 2KFT
AGL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS WITH THE SFC WINDS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KTS. KALB WILL REMAIN GUSTY...SO NO LLWS
WAS ADDED AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY RA...CHC OF TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY...MINOR OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC OF SHRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AROUND 30-40 MPH TODAY...

MOST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS ARE NOW SNOW FREE...WHILE
SNOW COVER STILL LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...LAKE
GEORGE AREA...THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND OF COURSE THE
ADIRONDACKS.

A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PREVENTED MOST AREAS FROM HAVING A FULL RECOVER
OVERNIGHT. THIS BREEZE WILL INCREASE TO A STRONG BREEZE FEATURING
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY.


RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT...GENERALLY 35 TO 50
PERCENT. IT WILL BE A PARTLY SUNNY WARM DAY.

THEN TONIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASE AND SO DO SHOWERS. A SOAKING RAIN IS
VERY LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL AREAS SEEING WELL OVER A
QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. THE RAIN MIGHT EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND BRISK.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DELTA DAM ON THE UPPER
MOHAWK RIVER UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...AS RECENT RAINFALL AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE RESERVOIR ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING ALSO CONTINUES
FOR RIVERBANK DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW MELT AND RAIN.

OUR NORTHERN AREAS ARE STILL DEALING WITH SNOWMELT WHICH HAS
ALREADY SWELLED MANY OF THE RIVERS IN THE REGION. IT LOOKS AS IF
1-2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL FALL STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FROM MIDDAY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND END
UP AS A LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ALL AREAS COULD SEE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-050-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND








000
FXUS61 KBTV 141731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST REGION...WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEFORE
THIS SYSTEM BRING STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS FRONT WILL TAPER OFF BY THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...GIVING
WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1229 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY
OFFERING BREEZY/MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGHS TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EAST...AND 75 TO 80 FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WEST (LOCALLY COOLER ALONG LK CHAMPLAIN). WATCHING
DEVELOPING AREA OF SHOWERS OFF TO OUR WEST AND EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DRIFT INTO OUR NRN NY COUNTIES BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THOUGH PBL INSTABILITY IS WEAK...HIGH ENOUGH
SHEAR THAT IF ANY STRONGER CELLS DEVELOP THEY`D HAVE TO BE WATCHED
FOR ISOLD STRONGER CONVECTIVE GUSTS. SAW A BRIEF SHOWER PASS
TORONTO IN THE PAST HOUR WITH A GUST TO 50KT. ENJOY YOUR
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN CORE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA OVERNGT DUE TO FRONTS SLOW
PROGRESSION WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF PRECIP THRU 12Z...KEEPING
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN AS WELL. WITH STRONG RIDGE
OFFSHORE...GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE FRONT WILL BE TIGHT
ALLOWING FOR CWA TO SEE STEADY BREEZY CONDITIONS 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40-45MPH THROUGH THE DAY/NIGHT. QPF THRU 12Z TUESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 0.10" TO 0.50"...WITH HIGHEST AMTS OVER N NY. FOR
OVERNGT LOWS...MODEST DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO CLDS/WAA
REMAINING INTACT W/ TEMPS IN THE 50S.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...RAIN EXPECTED THRU THE DAY AS FRONT TRUDGES
THRU THE REGION...WITH A SLOW TAPERING GOING INTO THE TUES NGT
TIME FRAME. AREAS IN HIR TRRN IN N NY WILL SEE TRANSITION TO -SW
AS COLDER AIR BLEEDS DOWN ON SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY
FLOW. FRONT MVS OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIP ENDING BY 12Z
WED. SOME LINGERING PRECIP STILL FOR SOME OF WED MORNING HRS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER AREA TO BEGIN THE DRYING PROCESS.
OVERALL FOR PRECIP STEADY RAINS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN TUES/TUES NGT. WITH SNOWFALL
BEGINNING FROM WEST TO EAST ON CAA IN HIR TRRN...1-2" COULD
ACCUMULATE...WITH OTHER LOCALES SEEING D-1" POTENTIAL. WITH
EXPECTED RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS...HAVE CONTINUED FLOOD WATCH.
OVERALL HIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TUESDAY..DOWN TO THE 30S/40S
WEDNESDAY DUE TO AIR REGIME CHANGE BEHIND FRONT. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S/30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SYSTEM EXISTS ON SUNDAY WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...THUS STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS AFTN/EVENING WL BE
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO 35 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY CHCS FOR SHOWERS AT
MSS/SLK. CRNT ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACRS OUR
CWA...WHICH IS PRODUCING SOUTH WIND GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35 KNOTS
ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THESE WINDS WL CONT THIS AFTN AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN TWD SUNSET AS MIXING DECREASES...ESPECIALLY MTN VALLEY
SITES OF MPV/SLK. OTHERWISE...CRNT RADAR SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ACRS
WESTERN NY THIS AFTN...WHICH WL IMPACT MSS BTWN 21-01Z AND SLK
BTWN 22Z-02Z THIS EVENING WITH VIS BTWN 4-6SM AND CIGS BROKEN TO
OVERCAST BTWN 2500 AND 4000 FEET...BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE. THINKING PRECIP
WL STAY OVER NORTHERN NY AND NOT IMPACT CPV AND POINTS EAST. GIVEN
GOOD BL MIXING ALSO NOT EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.

ON TUE A SHARP SFC COLD FRNT WL APPROACH THE SLV BY 12Z AND BE
INTO THE CPV BY 18Z. VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WITH GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED VALLEYS
(PBG/BTV/RUT/MSS) REACHING 40 TO 45 KNOTS BTWN 12Z-16Z TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL
DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC COLD FRNT WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF MODERATE TO
SEVERE TURBULENCE...ALONG WITH LLVL WS IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED.
ALSO...THINKING MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR WL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FROPA PRECIP...WITH SLK MIXING WITH RAIN/SNOW BY 18Z TUES.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WL BE ACRS THE CPV AROUND 18Z TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
EXPECTED BTWN 18Z-21Z TUESDAY AT BTV/MPV/RUT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE FROPA PRECIP WITH A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...WITH VIS LESS THAN 3 MILES. RAIN CHANGES TO
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST BTWN 18Z (SLK)-00Z (MPV) WITH ADDITIONAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON TUES EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
SLOWLY IMPROVE AFT 06Z WEDS WITH VFR RETURNING BY WEDS SFC HIGH
PRES WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WEDS INTO THURS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN SEASONABLY
HIGH AS RAINFALL AND CONTINUED MODEST SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE
RUNOFF. WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5
INCHES DURING THE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME.
WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP
RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN SOME CASES INTO MINOR
FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...JMG










000
FXUS61 KALY 141707
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL PRODUCE A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IT WILL TURN DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RISE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES WITH THE
FILTERED SUNSHINE. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SEEN ON RADAR WELL TO
THE WEST AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO DELAY THE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. A GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND HAS BEEN OBSERVED...AVERAGING 15
TO 25 MPH...GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH. SO...JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FLOOD WATCH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION/SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT...STILL WELL TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION...WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION. TONIGHT
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER. THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE EXCEPTIONALLY MILD ONCE MORE...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR THOSE
WISHING TO VIEW A TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE SCHEDULE FOR THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PWAT VALUES LOOK TO SPIKE TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF REGION
ON TUESDAY. THESE VALUES ARE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR. OUR REGION WILL BE UNDERNEATH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130+ KT
SLIGHTLY ANTICYLONIC CURVED UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAK. AT THE SAME
TIME..A LOW LEVEL JET TO 40KTS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW. ENTER A
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH STRONG SURFACE FORCING AND THE INGREDIENTS
LOOK TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A BRIEF BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT.

RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE
REGION AS ALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SUPPORT THIS KIND OF RAINFALL.
MORE ABOUT HYDRO ISSUES CAN BE FOUND IN OUR DISCUSSION. AGAIN...WE
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SLUG OF RAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE
LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION.

EARLIER...THERE WAS CONCERN THAT WE COULD HAVE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AS WELL ON TUESDAY. THAT IS CERTAINLY AN OUTSIDE
POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING THE STORM PREDICTION STORM CENTER`S
QUE...WE HAVE REMOVED ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM WORDING SINCE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION. SURFACE
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING...AND EVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LOOKS MEAGER. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FLAT. ONE THING TO CONSIDER
IS THERE WILL BE STRONG GRADIENT WIND WHICH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
EVEN WITHOUT ANY THUNDER. FOR NOW...WE STILL MENTION THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE IT WAS ALREADY PLACED IN THE GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY...50S
(BUT FALLING INTO THE 40S LATE) ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPSLOPE AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY. COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY BE USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO
TURN SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE. FURTHER EAST...SHOWERS COULD TURN BRIEFLY TO FLURRIES
BEFORE ENDING WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY EVERY BODY LOOKS TO PLUMMET TO FREEZING OR
LOWER REGION WIDE...DOWN TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS! A
GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MAINLY SUNNY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND IT HELPING
TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE HANDLING OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE
INTRODUCED HIGH CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...
LOWERING TO LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN MAINLY DRY OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY. DID NOT WANT TO GO HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS ON SATURDAY AT THIS TIME SINCE THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING WELL OFF THE COAST WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE FIRST 18 TO 20 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD (15/00Z-02Z)...
WITH MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. HOWEVER...OBSERVATION AND
SATELLITE  PICS DO NOT SHOW ANY STRATUS AS OF 0530Z...SO WILL ONLY
INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES AS A
TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 14/10Z AND 14/14Z. LATE IN THE PERIOD...AFTER
15/02Z...MVFR AND EVEN IFR STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AND THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO WESTERN NY.

SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT 10-12 KT AT KALB
AND KPSF WITH GUSTS UP TO 20S KTS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE 12-18 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS
AT KALB/KPSF...AND 20 TO 25 KTS AT KGFL/KPOU. THE STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND DIMINISH TO GUSTS OF AROUND 15KTS AT
KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...BUT GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE
SHRA...SCHC TSRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY RA...CHC OF TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
.GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AROUND 30 MPH TODAY...

MOST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS ARE NOW SNOW FREE...WHILE
SNOW COVER STILL LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...LAKE
GEORGE AREA...THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND OF COURSE THE
ADIRONDACKS.

A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PREVENTED MOST AREAS FROM HAVING A FULL RECOVER
OVERNIGHT. THIS BREEZE WILL INCREASE TO A STRONG BREEZE FEATURING
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY.


RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT...GENERALLY 35 TO 50
PERCENT. IT WILL BE A PARTLY SUNNY WARM DAY.

THEN TONIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASE AND SO DO SHOWERS. A SOAKING RAIN IS
VERY LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL AREAS SEEING WELL OVER A
QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. THE RAIN MIGHT EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND BRISK.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DELTA DAM ON THE UPPER
MOHAWK RIVER UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...AS RECENT RAINFALL AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE RESERVOIR ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING ALSO CONTINUES
FOR RIVERBANK DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW MELT AND RAIN.

OUR NORTHERN AREAS ARE STILL DEALING WITH SNOWMELT WHICH HAS
ALREADY SWELLED MANY OF THE RIVERS IN THE REGION. IT LOOKS AS IF
1-2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL FALL STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FROM MIDDAY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND END
UP AS A LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ALL AREAS COULD SEE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-050-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND








000
FXUS61 KBTV 141629
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1229 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST REGION...WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEFORE
THIS SYSTEM BRING STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS FRONT WILL TAPER OFF BY THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...GIVING
WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1229 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY
OFFERING BREEZY/MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGHS TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EAST...AND 75 TO 80 FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WEST (LOCALLY COOLER ALONG LK CHAMPLAIN). WATCHING
DEVELOPING AREA OF SHOWERS OFF TO OUR WEST AND EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DRIFT INTO OUR NRN NY COUNTIES BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THOUGH PBL INSTABILITY IS WEAK...HIGH ENOUGH
SHEAR THAT IF ANY STRONGER CELLS DEVELOP THEY`D HAVE TO BE WATCHED
FOR ISOLD STRONGER CONVECTIVE GUSTS. SAW A BRIEF SHOWER PASS
TORONTO IN THE PAST HOUR WITH A GUST TO 50KT. ENJOY YOUR
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN CORE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA OVERNGT DUE TO FRONTS SLOW
PROGRESSION WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF PRECIP THRU 12Z...KEEPING
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN AS WELL. WITH STRONG RIDGE
OFFSHORE...GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE FRONT WILL BE TIGHT
ALLOWING FOR CWA TO SEE STEADY BREEZY CONDITIONS 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40-45MPH THROUGH THE DAY/NIGHT. QPF THRU 12Z TUESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 0.10" TO 0.50"...WITH HIGHEST AMTS OVER N NY. FOR
OVERNGT LOWS...MODEST DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO CLDS/WAA
REMAINING INTACT W/ TEMPS IN THE 50S.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...RAIN EXPECTED THRU THE DAY AS FRONT TRUDGES
THRU THE REGION...WITH A SLOW TAPERING GOING INTO THE TUES NGT
TIME FRAME. AREAS IN HIR TRRN IN N NY WILL SEE TRANSITION TO -SW
AS COLDER AIR BLEEDS DOWN ON SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY
FLOW. FRONT MVS OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIP ENDING BY 12Z
WED. SOME LINGERING PRECIP STILL FOR SOME OF WED MORNING HRS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER AREA TO BEGIN THE DRYING PROCESS.
OVERALL FOR PRECIP STEADY RAINS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN TUES/TUES NGT. WITH SNOWFALL
BEGINNING FROM WEST TO EAST ON CAA IN HIR TRRN...1-2" COULD
ACCUMULATE...WITH OTHER LOCALES SEEING D-1" POTENTIAL. WITH
EXPECTED RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS...HAVE CONTINUED FLOOD WATCH.
OVERALL HIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TUESDAY..DOWN TO THE 30S/40S
WEDNESDAY DUE TO AIR REGIME CHANGE BEHIND FRONT. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S/30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SYSTEM EXISTS ON SUNDAY WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...THUS STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...STILL DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING FOG/LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND KMPV WITH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
14Z. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...GUSTS IN
THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL ALSO EXIST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...BUT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. MORE STEADIER RAIN
IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LOW TOP
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST/NORTHWEST EXPECTED BTWN 15Z-21Z TUESDAY ACRS OUR TAF
SITES. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE FROPA PRECIP.
CANNOT RULE OUT A 15 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF IFR IN THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION SHOWERS WITH VIS LESS THAN 3 MILES. RAIN CHANGES TO
SNOW SHOWERS BY 21Z AT MSS/SLK AND BY 00Z WEDS AT PBG/BTV/MPV/RUT
WITH A PERIOD OF IFR VIS/CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUES EVENING. SFC HIGH
PRES WITH CLRING EXPECTED ON WEDS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN SEASONABLY
HIGH AS RAINFALL AND CONTINUED MODEST SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE
RUNOFF. WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5
INCHES DURING THE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME.
WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP
RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN SOME CASES INTO MINOR
FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...JMG







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