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000
FXUS61 KBTV 232053
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY.
WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AS
GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE SAME TIME
HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE. OVERALL
EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH
2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT
THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 232053
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY.
WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AS
GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE SAME TIME
HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE. OVERALL
EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH
2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT
THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



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000
FXUS61 KALY 232051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 232051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 232051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 232051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 232033
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDENSDAY...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME
TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY.
WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AS
GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE SAME TIME
HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE. OVERALL
EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH
2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT
THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET.
WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMMINATING FROM LAKE
ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS 15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT
MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 232033
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDENSDAY...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME
TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY.
WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AS
GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE SAME TIME
HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE. OVERALL
EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH
2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT
THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET.
WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMMINATING FROM LAKE
ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS 15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT
MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON



000
FXUS61 KALY 232025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
325 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 232025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
325 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 232007
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 232007
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 231829
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO 100
MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO
FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR
HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND A GOOD BIT OF
THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...SO THE TREND IS BCMG
CLEARER. HAVE YET TO SEE GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE MAY ADD SOME
FURTHER CLARITY...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED AFTN...CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE S & E DURING THE EVNG. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL
TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT...AND WILL
USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL
WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR
CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE OVER TO RN FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 231829
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO 100
MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO
FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR
HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND A GOOD BIT OF
THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...SO THE TREND IS BCMG
CLEARER. HAVE YET TO SEE GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE MAY ADD SOME
FURTHER CLARITY...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED AFTN...CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE S & E DURING THE EVNG. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL
TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT...AND WILL
USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL
WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR
CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE OVER TO RN FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231811
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
INTRODUCED JUST A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. LINGERING
SHOWERS GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE MORNING HRS...SO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50F FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SW AT
5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT
MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231811
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
INTRODUCED JUST A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. LINGERING
SHOWERS GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE MORNING HRS...SO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50F FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SW AT
5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT
MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231811
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
INTRODUCED JUST A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. LINGERING
SHOWERS GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE MORNING HRS...SO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50F FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SW AT
5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT
MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231811
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
INTRODUCED JUST A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. LINGERING
SHOWERS GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE MORNING HRS...SO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50F FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SW AT
5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT
MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 231808
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL





000
FXUS61 KALY 231808
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 231731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 231727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1227 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1227 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KBTV 231712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1212 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
INTRODUCED JUST A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. LINGERING SHOWERS
GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE MORNING HRS...SO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR
MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 231712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1212 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
INTRODUCED JUST A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. LINGERING SHOWERS
GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE MORNING HRS...SO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR
MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231534
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
REMAINING SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE PAST 1-2
HOURS...SO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR
PATCHY DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 231534
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
REMAINING SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE PAST 1-2
HOURS...SO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR
PATCHY DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 231434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY
AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY
AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY
AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY
AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 634 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END AS RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS HAVING A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THESE BREAKS...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 40S FOR
MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT
OF THE SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 634 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END AS RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS HAVING A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THESE BREAKS...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 40S FOR
MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT
OF THE SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KALY 231120
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...ENDING THE RAIN...AND ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE FROM W TO E...WITH MAINLY JUST ISOLATED/SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT BEST. THIS DECREASING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 2 HOURS. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG COULD FORM IN SOME AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY...IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER S AND E...WE EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
LEAST CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
613 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 231113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
613 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 231113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
613 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 231113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
613 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KALY 231103
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...ENDING THE RAIN...AND ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST...RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE
LAST AREA OF SHOWERS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TUG HILL
REGION...AND MOVING EAST VERY RAPIDLY. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS TO TAPER OFF FROM W TO E BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM.

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BEFORE ENDING.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END...WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER S AND E...WE
EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231103
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...ENDING THE RAIN...AND ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST...RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE
LAST AREA OF SHOWERS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TUG HILL
REGION...AND MOVING EAST VERY RAPIDLY. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS TO TAPER OFF FROM W TO E BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM.

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BEFORE ENDING.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END...WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER S AND E...WE
EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 230916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...ENDING THE RAIN...AND ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST...RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE
LAST AREA OF SHOWERS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TUG HILL
REGION...AND MOVING EAST VERY RAPIDLY. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS TO TAPER OFF FROM W TO E BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM.

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BEFORE ENDING.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END...WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER S AND E...WE
EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT
NOT MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF
-RAPL IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME
-RA AROUND AFT 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL TIL ARND 10Z.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 230916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...ENDING THE RAIN...AND ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST...RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE
LAST AREA OF SHOWERS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TUG HILL
REGION...AND MOVING EAST VERY RAPIDLY. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS TO TAPER OFF FROM W TO E BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM.

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BEFORE ENDING.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END...WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER S AND E...WE
EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT
NOT MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF
-RAPL IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME
-RA AROUND AFT 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL TIL ARND 10Z.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS AT KSLK AND KMSS IN AREAS
OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH 14Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR, THEN BECOME VFR AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN
MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 230859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS AT KSLK AND KMSS IN AREAS
OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH 14Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR, THEN BECOME VFR AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN
MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 230859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS AT KSLK AND KMSS IN AREAS
OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH 14Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR, THEN BECOME VFR AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN
MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 230859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS AT KSLK AND KMSS IN AREAS
OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH 14Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR, THEN BECOME VFR AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN
MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 230856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KSLK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...



000
FXUS61 KBTV 230856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KSLK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...



000
FXUS61 KBTV 230856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KSLK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...



000
FXUS61 KBTV 230856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KSLK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...



000
FXUS61 KBTV 230818
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
318 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST SUNDAY...INFLUX OF WARM AIR CONTINUES IN THE
MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW...WITH VAD WIND PROFILES SHOWING 850MB
WINDS AT 35-45KTS. TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION RANGE FROM MID 30S
TO LOW 40S. THERE ARE STILL SOME AREAS NEAR FREEZING SUCH AT THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS - TPK AT 32 DEGREES- AND PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. BEST POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX/FREEZING
RAIN AND SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
ISOLATED/SPOTTY AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, ESPECIALLY IN
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE S/SW FLOW CANNOT SCOUR OUT COLDER
AIR. THUS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE WHILE
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY FROM NRN NY EASTWARD INTO
VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KALY 230553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1253 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY MILDER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY
MILD WEATHER FOR A NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN BERKS
NORTHWARD INTO SRN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION...AND
THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 5 AM FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING
REPORTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE FOCUSES THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION. THE KALB 00Z
SOUNDING NICELY SHOWS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 875 HPA AND 775 HPA.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 09Z-12Z. THE POPS AND WX WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND A PCPN-
THICKNESS TOOL. IT APPEARS THAT A SUFFICIENT TEMP/DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...COMBINED WITH GROUND TEMPS NEAR FREEZING DUE TO OUR
RECENT COLD SPELL...HAVE LARGELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE REPORTS OF ICE
FORMATION DESPITE TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL RISE
VERY SLOWLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH DAYBREAK. ANY ICE
ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A COATING TO A STRAY TENTH. SLEET
ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS IN A FEW SPOTS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT
NOT MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF
-RAPL IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME
-RA AROUND AFT 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL TIL ARND 10Z.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-048>050-054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230540
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1240 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST SUNDAY...INFLUX OF WARM AIR CONTINUES IN THE
MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW...WITH VAD WIND PROFILES SHOWING 850MB
WINDS AT 35-45KTS. TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION RANGE FROM MID 30S
TO LOW 40S. THERE ARE STILL SOME AREAS NEAR FREEZING SUCH AT THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS - TPK AT 32 DEGREES- AND PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. BEST POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX/FREEZING
RAIN AND SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
ISOLATED/SPOTTY AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, ESPECIALLY IN
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE S/SW FLOW CANNOT SCOUR OUT COLDER
AIR. THUS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE WHILE
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY FROM NRN NY EASTWARD INTO
VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-
     004-007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KALY 230508
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1208 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY MILDER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY
MILD WEATHER FOR A NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR
SCHOHARIE...ALBANY AND WESTERN RENSSELAER COUNTIES. TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 30S TO L40S...AND THE DEWPTS HAVE RISEN ENOUGH THAT THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD INTO SRN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE NRN
SARATOGA REGION...AND THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 5 AM FOR SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN.

LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING
REPORTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE FOCUSES THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION. THE KALB 00Z
SOUNDING NICELY SHOWS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 875 HPA AND 775 HPA.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 09Z-12Z. THE POPS AND WX WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND A PCPN-
THICKNESS TOOL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S AND BE
RISING AFTER 06Z/SUN. ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
COATING TO A STRAY TENTH. SLEET ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO A
COUPLE OF TENTHS IN A FEW SPOTS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT
NOT MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF
-RAPL IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME
-RA AROUND AFT 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL TIL ARND 10Z.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-048>050-054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 230508
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1208 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY MILDER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY
MILD WEATHER FOR A NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR
SCHOHARIE...ALBANY AND WESTERN RENSSELAER COUNTIES. TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 30S TO L40S...AND THE DEWPTS HAVE RISEN ENOUGH THAT THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD INTO SRN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE NRN
SARATOGA REGION...AND THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 5 AM FOR SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN.

LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING
REPORTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE FOCUSES THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION. THE KALB 00Z
SOUNDING NICELY SHOWS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 875 HPA AND 775 HPA.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 09Z-12Z. THE POPS AND WX WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND A PCPN-
THICKNESS TOOL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S AND BE
RISING AFTER 06Z/SUN. ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
COATING TO A STRAY TENTH. SLEET ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO A
COUPLE OF TENTHS IN A FEW SPOTS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT
NOT MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF
-RAPL IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME
-RA AROUND AFT 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL TIL ARND 10Z.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-048>050-054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 230305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1005 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY MILDER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY
MILD WEATHER FOR A NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR
SCHOHARIE...ALBANY AND WESTERN RENSSELAER COUNTIES. TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 30S TO L40S...AND THE DEWPTS HAVE RISEN ENOUGH THAT THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD INTO SRN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE NRN
SARATOGA REGION...AND THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 5 AM FOR SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN.

LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING
REPORTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE FOCUSES THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION. THE KALB 00Z
SOUNDING NICELY SHOWS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 875 HPA AND 775 HPA.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 09Z-12Z. THE POPS AND WX WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND A PCPN-
THICKNESS TOOL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S AND BE
RISING AFTER 06Z/SUN. ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
COATING TO A STRAY TENTH. SLEET ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO A
COUPLE OF TENTHS IN A FEW SPOTS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-FZRA/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 03Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT NOT
MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF -FZRAPL
IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 01Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME -RA
AROUND BTWN 01Z-05Z WITH SOME MVFR CIGS VSBYS.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-048>050-054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 230305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1005 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY MILDER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY
MILD WEATHER FOR A NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR
SCHOHARIE...ALBANY AND WESTERN RENSSELAER COUNTIES. TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 30S TO L40S...AND THE DEWPTS HAVE RISEN ENOUGH THAT THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD INTO SRN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE NRN
SARATOGA REGION...AND THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 5 AM FOR SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN.

LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING
REPORTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE FOCUSES THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION. THE KALB 00Z
SOUNDING NICELY SHOWS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 875 HPA AND 775 HPA.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 09Z-12Z. THE POPS AND WX WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND A PCPN-
THICKNESS TOOL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S AND BE
RISING AFTER 06Z/SUN. ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
COATING TO A STRAY TENTH. SLEET ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO A
COUPLE OF TENTHS IN A FEW SPOTS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-FZRA/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 03Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT NOT
MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF -FZRAPL
IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 01Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME -RA
AROUND BTWN 01Z-05Z WITH SOME MVFR CIGS VSBYS.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-048>050-054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 230305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1005 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY MILDER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY
MILD WEATHER FOR A NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR
SCHOHARIE...ALBANY AND WESTERN RENSSELAER COUNTIES. TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 30S TO L40S...AND THE DEWPTS HAVE RISEN ENOUGH THAT THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD INTO SRN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE NRN
SARATOGA REGION...AND THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 5 AM FOR SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN.

LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING
REPORTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE FOCUSES THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION. THE KALB 00Z
SOUNDING NICELY SHOWS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 875 HPA AND 775 HPA.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 09Z-12Z. THE POPS AND WX WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND A PCPN-
THICKNESS TOOL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S AND BE
RISING AFTER 06Z/SUN. ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
COATING TO A STRAY TENTH. SLEET ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO A
COUPLE OF TENTHS IN A FEW SPOTS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-FZRA/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 03Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT NOT
MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF -FZRAPL
IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 01Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME -RA
AROUND BTWN 01Z-05Z WITH SOME MVFR CIGS VSBYS.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-048>050-054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 230305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1005 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY MILDER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY
MILD WEATHER FOR A NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR
SCHOHARIE...ALBANY AND WESTERN RENSSELAER COUNTIES. TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 30S TO L40S...AND THE DEWPTS HAVE RISEN ENOUGH THAT THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD INTO SRN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE NRN
SARATOGA REGION...AND THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 5 AM FOR SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN.

LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING
REPORTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE FOCUSES THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION. THE KALB 00Z
SOUNDING NICELY SHOWS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 875 HPA AND 775 HPA.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 09Z-12Z. THE POPS AND WX WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND A PCPN-
THICKNESS TOOL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S AND BE
RISING AFTER 06Z/SUN. ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
COATING TO A STRAY TENTH. SLEET ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO A
COUPLE OF TENTHS IN A FEW SPOTS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-FZRA/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 03Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT NOT
MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF -FZRAPL
IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 01Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME -RA
AROUND BTWN 01Z-05Z WITH SOME MVFR CIGS VSBYS.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-048>050-054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230255
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
955 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST LOOKING GOOD WITH
RESPECT TO PERIODS OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EASTERN VERMONT STILL HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...THUS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 230255
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
955 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST LOOKING GOOD WITH
RESPECT TO PERIODS OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EASTERN VERMONT STILL HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...THUS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 230255
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
955 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST LOOKING GOOD WITH
RESPECT TO PERIODS OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EASTERN VERMONT STILL HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...THUS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 230255
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
955 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST LOOKING GOOD WITH
RESPECT TO PERIODS OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EASTERN VERMONT STILL HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...THUS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 230019
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO DEW POINTS AS THEY ARE STILL RUNNING LOW AND
SINCE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS LIGHT...HAVE ADDED THE LIGHT
WORDING TO THE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REAL
GOOD. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH
7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEADING AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NY AT
2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE
DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35
MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL
SOME SIGNIFICANT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND
WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F). OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL
OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR
INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION
SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS.
THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 230019
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO DEW POINTS AS THEY ARE STILL RUNNING LOW AND
SINCE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS LIGHT...HAVE ADDED THE LIGHT
WORDING TO THE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REAL
GOOD. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH
7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEADING AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NY AT
2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE
DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35
MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL
SOME SIGNIFICANT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND
WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F). OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL
OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR
INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION
SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS.
THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KALY 230003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HELDERBERGS...NRN TACONICS...NRN
BERKSHIRES...WASHINGTON CTY...AND SRN VT. MANY REPORTS OF SLEET
AND SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN COMING ON. THIS ADVISORY WILL GO TO 5 AM
SUNDAY...THOUGH PARTS MAY BE DROPPED SOONER. THE BETTER BATCH OF
PCPN IS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN CATSKILLS...AND SRN
DACKS...BUT REPORTS KEEP COMING IN EASTWARD OVER THE CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES. LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH
SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING REPORTED.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS TONIGHT...AS A 120
KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW AT 500 HPA.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-FZRA/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 03Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT NOT
MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF -FZRAPL
IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 01Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME -RA
AROUND BTWN 01Z-05Z WITH SOME MVFR CIGS VSBYS.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 230003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HELDERBERGS...NRN TACONICS...NRN
BERKSHIRES...WASHINGTON CTY...AND SRN VT. MANY REPORTS OF SLEET
AND SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN COMING ON. THIS ADVISORY WILL GO TO 5 AM
SUNDAY...THOUGH PARTS MAY BE DROPPED SOONER. THE BETTER BATCH OF
PCPN IS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN CATSKILLS...AND SRN
DACKS...BUT REPORTS KEEP COMING IN EASTWARD OVER THE CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES. LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH
SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING REPORTED.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS TONIGHT...AS A 120
KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW AT 500 HPA.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-FZRA/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 03Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT NOT
MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF -FZRAPL
IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 01Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME -RA
AROUND BTWN 01Z-05Z WITH SOME MVFR CIGS VSBYS.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 222331
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HELDERBERGS...NRN TACONICS...NRN
BERKSHIRES...WASHINGTON CTY...AND SRN VT. MANY REPORTS OF SLEET
AND SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN COMING ON. THIS ADVISORY WILL GO TO 5 AM
SUNDAY...THOUGH PARTS MAY BE DROPPED SOONER. THE BETTER BATCH OF
PCPN IS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN CATSKILLS...AND SRN
DACKS...BUT REPORTS KEEP COMING IN EASTWARD OVER THE CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES. LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH
SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING REPORTED.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS TONIGHT...AS A 120
KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW AT 500 HPA.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFCHIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN FROM
THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 222331
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HELDERBERGS...NRN TACONICS...NRN
BERKSHIRES...WASHINGTON CTY...AND SRN VT. MANY REPORTS OF SLEET
AND SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN COMING ON. THIS ADVISORY WILL GO TO 5 AM
SUNDAY...THOUGH PARTS MAY BE DROPPED SOONER. THE BETTER BATCH OF
PCPN IS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN CATSKILLS...AND SRN
DACKS...BUT REPORTS KEEP COMING IN EASTWARD OVER THE CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES. LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH
SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING REPORTED.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS TONIGHT...AS A 120
KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW AT 500 HPA.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFCHIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN FROM
THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 222331
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HELDERBERGS...NRN TACONICS...NRN
BERKSHIRES...WASHINGTON CTY...AND SRN VT. MANY REPORTS OF SLEET
AND SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN COMING ON. THIS ADVISORY WILL GO TO 5 AM
SUNDAY...THOUGH PARTS MAY BE DROPPED SOONER. THE BETTER BATCH OF
PCPN IS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN CATSKILLS...AND SRN
DACKS...BUT REPORTS KEEP COMING IN EASTWARD OVER THE CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES. LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH
SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING REPORTED.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS TONIGHT...AS A 120
KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW AT 500 HPA.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFCHIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN FROM
THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 222331
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HELDERBERGS...NRN TACONICS...NRN
BERKSHIRES...WASHINGTON CTY...AND SRN VT. MANY REPORTS OF SLEET
AND SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN COMING ON. THIS ADVISORY WILL GO TO 5 AM
SUNDAY...THOUGH PARTS MAY BE DROPPED SOONER. THE BETTER BATCH OF
PCPN IS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN CATSKILLS...AND SRN
DACKS...BUT REPORTS KEEP COMING IN EASTWARD OVER THE CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES. LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH
SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING REPORTED.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS TONIGHT...AS A 120
KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW AT 500 HPA.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFCHIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN FROM
THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KBTV 222315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
615 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO DEW POINTS AS THEY ARE STILL RUNNING LOW AND
SINCE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS LIGHT...HAVE ADDED THE LIGHT
WORDING TO THE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REAL
GOOD. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH
7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEADING AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NY AT
2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE
DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35
MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL
SOME SIGNIFICANT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND
WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F). OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL
OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR
INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION
SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS.
THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT
WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH
OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 222315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
615 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO DEW POINTS AS THEY ARE STILL RUNNING LOW AND
SINCE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS LIGHT...HAVE ADDED THE LIGHT
WORDING TO THE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REAL
GOOD. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH
7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEADING AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NY AT
2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE
DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35
MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL
SOME SIGNIFICANT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND
WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F). OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL
OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR
INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION
SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS.
THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT
WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH
OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 222315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
615 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO DEW POINTS AS THEY ARE STILL RUNNING LOW AND
SINCE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS LIGHT...HAVE ADDED THE LIGHT
WORDING TO THE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REAL
GOOD. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH
7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEADING AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NY AT
2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE
DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35
MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL
SOME SIGNIFICANT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND
WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F). OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL
OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR
INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION
SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS.
THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT
WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH
OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 222315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
615 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO DEW POINTS AS THEY ARE STILL RUNNING LOW AND
SINCE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS LIGHT...HAVE ADDED THE LIGHT
WORDING TO THE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REAL
GOOD. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH
7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEADING AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NY AT
2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE
DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35
MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL
SOME SIGNIFICANT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND
WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F). OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL
OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR
INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION
SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS.
THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT
WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH
OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KALY 222056
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
356 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTERY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 222 PM EST...OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A 120 KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT
FRONT EXIT REGION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH
THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 HPA. CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS AN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ADVANCING FROM CENTRAL NY TOWARDS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFCHIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN FROM
THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 222056
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
356 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTERY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 222 PM EST...OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A 120 KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT
FRONT EXIT REGION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH
THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 HPA. CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS AN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ADVANCING FROM CENTRAL NY TOWARDS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFCHIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN FROM
THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 222056
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
356 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTERY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 222 PM EST...OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A 120 KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT
FRONT EXIT REGION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH
THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 HPA. CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS AN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ADVANCING FROM CENTRAL NY TOWARDS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFCHIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN FROM
THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 222056
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
356 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTERY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 222 PM EST...OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A 120 KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT
FRONT EXIT REGION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH
THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 HPA. CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS AN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ADVANCING FROM CENTRAL NY TOWARDS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFCHIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN FROM
THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 222046
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY
FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING AREA OF MIXED PCPN ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN NY AT 2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25
MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F).
OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR
LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF
VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME
ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT
IN SOME PRECIPITATION SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS. THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 222046
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY
FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING AREA OF MIXED PCPN ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN NY AT 2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25
MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F).
OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR
LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF
VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME
ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT
IN SOME PRECIPITATION SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS. THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 222040
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY
FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING AREA OF MIXED PCPN ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN NY AT 2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25
MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F).
OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR
LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF
VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME
ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT
IN SOME PRECIPITATION SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS. THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 222040
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY
FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING AREA OF MIXED PCPN ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN NY AT 2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25
MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F).
OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR
LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF
VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME
ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT
IN SOME PRECIPITATION SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS. THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 221922
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
222 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTERY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 222 PM EST...OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A 120 KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT
FRONT EXIT REGION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH
THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 HPA. CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS AN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ADVANCING FROM CENTRAL NY TOWARDS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM
HAVE A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW
ALONG DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST WITH A 1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF
SHOWING AN IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME
FRAME IN THE HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 221922
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
222 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTERY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 222 PM EST...OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A 120 KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT
FRONT EXIT REGION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH
THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 HPA. CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS AN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ADVANCING FROM CENTRAL NY TOWARDS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM
HAVE A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW
ALONG DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST WITH A 1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF
SHOWING AN IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME
FRAME IN THE HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221850
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTERY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY
TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...

AS OF 1222 PM EST...INITIAL BAND OF CLOUDS IS NOW EAST OF THE
REGION ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL
SUNSHINE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS. THESE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE NEXT
BATCH OF CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NY AND IS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS OUR AREA. WILL ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES BY THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIP OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY AS WELL...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
OR MIXED PRECIP.

AS EXPECTED...THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REACH THE MOHAWK
VALLEY REGION...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE
HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE GROUND
WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR LIGHT
ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK
SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FROM ALBANY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL
EVEN COLDER.

TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIQUID RAIN /PERHAPS A FEW SLEET PELLETS/...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N
AND W OF ALBANY...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BECOME RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND
MESONET SFC OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR EVEN OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM
HAVE A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW
ALONG DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST WITH A 1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF
SHOWING AN IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME
FRAME IN THE HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1253 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1249 PM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. SEEING WINDS OF 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE). THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO
GETTING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST AT NOON (MALONE 37F AND
ELLENBERG DEPOT 39F).

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM)...BUT RADAR
TRENDS AT 1730Z SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE
TO OUR SOUTH. GRIDS ALREADY HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-
COVERED...WITH A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SOME ICE PELLETS FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT- DURATION EVENT YIELDS LESS THAN
0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION LESS
THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN
FOR AN OPEN WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY
THANKSGIVING. ECMWF INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT
SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND
MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST
OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING,
IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW...GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY... WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1253 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1249 PM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. SEEING WINDS OF 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE). THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO
GETTING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST AT NOON (MALONE 37F AND
ELLENBERG DEPOT 39F).

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM)...BUT RADAR
TRENDS AT 1730Z SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE
TO OUR SOUTH. GRIDS ALREADY HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-
COVERED...WITH A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SOME ICE PELLETS FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT- DURATION EVENT YIELDS LESS THAN
0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION LESS
THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN
FOR AN OPEN WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY
THANKSGIVING. ECMWF INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT
SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND
MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST
OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING,
IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW...GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY... WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1253 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1249 PM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. SEEING WINDS OF 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE). THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO
GETTING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST AT NOON (MALONE 37F AND
ELLENBERG DEPOT 39F).

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM)...BUT RADAR
TRENDS AT 1730Z SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE
TO OUR SOUTH. GRIDS ALREADY HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-
COVERED...WITH A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SOME ICE PELLETS FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT- DURATION EVENT YIELDS LESS THAN
0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION LESS
THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN
FOR AN OPEN WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY
THANKSGIVING. ECMWF INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT
SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND
MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST
OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING,
IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW...GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY... WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1253 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1249 PM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. SEEING WINDS OF 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE). THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO
GETTING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST AT NOON (MALONE 37F AND
ELLENBERG DEPOT 39F).

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM)...BUT RADAR
TRENDS AT 1730Z SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE
TO OUR SOUTH. GRIDS ALREADY HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-
COVERED...WITH A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SOME ICE PELLETS FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT- DURATION EVENT YIELDS LESS THAN
0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION LESS
THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN
FOR AN OPEN WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY
THANKSGIVING. ECMWF INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT
SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND
MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST
OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING,
IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW...GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY... WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 221739
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY
TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...

AS OF 1222 PM EST...INITIAL BAND OF CLOUDS IS NOW EAST OF THE
REGION ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL
SUNSHINE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS. THESE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE NEXT
BATCH OF CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NY AND IS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS OUR AREA. WILL ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES BY THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIP OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY AS WELL...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
OR MIXED PRECIP.

AS EXPECTED...THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REACH THE MOHAWK
VALLEY REGION...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE
HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE GROUND
WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR LIGHT
ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK
SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FROM ALBANY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL
EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIQUID RAIN /PERHAPS A FEW SLEET PELLETS/...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N
AND W OF ALBANY...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BECOME RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND
MESONET SFC OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR EVEN OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221739
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY
TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...

AS OF 1222 PM EST...INITIAL BAND OF CLOUDS IS NOW EAST OF THE
REGION ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL
SUNSHINE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS. THESE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE NEXT
BATCH OF CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NY AND IS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS OUR AREA. WILL ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES BY THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIP OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY AS WELL...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
OR MIXED PRECIP.

AS EXPECTED...THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REACH THE MOHAWK
VALLEY REGION...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE
HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE GROUND
WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR LIGHT
ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK
SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FROM ALBANY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL
EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIQUID RAIN /PERHAPS A FEW SLEET PELLETS/...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N
AND W OF ALBANY...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BECOME RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND
MESONET SFC OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR EVEN OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KBTV 221736
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1236 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE SWLY WINDS IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE)...INCLUDING GUSTS 30-35 MPH THROUGH MID-LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS.

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM). GRIDS ALREADY
HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-COVERED...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SOME
ICE PELLETS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT-DURATION EVENT
YIELDS LESS THAN 0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION LESS THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN
FOR AN OPEN WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY
THANKSGIVING. ECMWF INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT
SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND
MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST
OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING,
IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW...GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY... WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221736
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1236 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE SWLY WINDS IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE)...INCLUDING GUSTS 30-35 MPH THROUGH MID-LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS.

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM). GRIDS ALREADY
HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-COVERED...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SOME
ICE PELLETS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT-DURATION EVENT
YIELDS LESS THAN 0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION LESS THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN
FOR AN OPEN WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY
THANKSGIVING. ECMWF INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT
SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND
MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST
OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING,
IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW...GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY... WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 221722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY
TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...

AS OF 1222 PM EST...INITIAL BAND OF CLOUDS IS NOW EAST OF THE
REGION ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL
SUNSHINE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS. THESE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE NEXT
BATCH OF CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NY AND IS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS OUR AREA. WILL ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES BY THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIP OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY AS WELL...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
OR MIXED PRECIP.

AS EXPECTED...THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REACH THE MOHAWK
VALLEY REGION...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE
HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE GROUND
WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR LIGHT
ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK
SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FROM ALBANY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL
EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIQUID RAIN /PERHAPS A FEW SLEET PELLETS/...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N
AND W OF ALBANY...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BECOME RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND
MESONET SFC OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR EVEN OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 221722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY
TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...

AS OF 1222 PM EST...INITIAL BAND OF CLOUDS IS NOW EAST OF THE
REGION ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL
SUNSHINE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS. THESE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE NEXT
BATCH OF CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NY AND IS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS OUR AREA. WILL ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES BY THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIP OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY AS WELL...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
OR MIXED PRECIP.

AS EXPECTED...THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REACH THE MOHAWK
VALLEY REGION...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE
HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE GROUND
WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR LIGHT
ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK
SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FROM ALBANY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL
EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIQUID RAIN /PERHAPS A FEW SLEET PELLETS/...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N
AND W OF ALBANY...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BECOME RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND
MESONET SFC OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR EVEN OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221524
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1024 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE SWLY WINDS IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE)...INCLUDING GUSTS 30-35 MPH THROUGH MID-LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS.

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM). GRIDS ALREADY
HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-COVERED...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SOME
ICE PELLETS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT-DURATION EVENT
YIELDS LESS THAN 0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION LESS THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON
SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z
KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS
EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN
ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 221524
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1024 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE SWLY WINDS IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE)...INCLUDING GUSTS 30-35 MPH THROUGH MID-LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS.

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM). GRIDS ALREADY
HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-COVERED...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SOME
ICE PELLETS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT-DURATION EVENT
YIELDS LESS THAN 0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION LESS THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON
SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z
KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS
EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN
ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 221427
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
927 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY
TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...

AS OF 927 AM EST...IN RESPONSE TO RAPID WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
BREAKS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. THERE MAY
ACTUAL EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUNSHINE FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE AREA BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND OF CLOUDS FOR LATE THIS
MORNING...BUT MORE THICKER AND LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
NY AND NORTHWESTERN PA WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK
SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FROM ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIQUID RAIN /PERHAPS A FEW SLEET PELLETS/...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N
AND W OF ALBANY...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BECOME RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND
MESONET SFC OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR EVEN OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221427
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
927 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY
TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...

AS OF 927 AM EST...IN RESPONSE TO RAPID WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
BREAKS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. THERE MAY
ACTUAL EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUNSHINE FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE AREA BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND OF CLOUDS FOR LATE THIS
MORNING...BUT MORE THICKER AND LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
NY AND NORTHWESTERN PA WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK
SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FROM ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIQUID RAIN /PERHAPS A FEW SLEET PELLETS/...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N
AND W OF ALBANY...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BECOME RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND
MESONET SFC OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR EVEN OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221427
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
927 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY
TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...

AS OF 927 AM EST...IN RESPONSE TO RAPID WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
BREAKS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. THERE MAY
ACTUAL EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUNSHINE FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE AREA BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND OF CLOUDS FOR LATE THIS
MORNING...BUT MORE THICKER AND LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
NY AND NORTHWESTERN PA WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK
SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FROM ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIQUID RAIN /PERHAPS A FEW SLEET PELLETS/...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N
AND W OF ALBANY...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BECOME RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND
MESONET SFC OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR EVEN OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221427
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
927 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY
TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...

AS OF 927 AM EST...IN RESPONSE TO RAPID WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
BREAKS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. THERE MAY
ACTUAL EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUNSHINE FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE AREA BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND OF CLOUDS FOR LATE THIS
MORNING...BUT MORE THICKER AND LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
NY AND NORTHWESTERN PA WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK
SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FROM ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIQUID RAIN /PERHAPS A FEW SLEET PELLETS/...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N
AND W OF ALBANY...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BECOME RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND
MESONET SFC OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR EVEN OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221150
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN
AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
OVER MOST OF THE REGION. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AS SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THIS MORNING STARTS TO SLIDE EAST.

PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS A RESULT,
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE
00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE
PREVALENT IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON
SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z
KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS
EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN
ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221150
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN
AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
OVER MOST OF THE REGION. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AS SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THIS MORNING STARTS TO SLIDE EAST.

PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS A RESULT,
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE
00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE
PREVALENT IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON
SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z
KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS
EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN
ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 221126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 630 AM EST...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS...IN THE
LOWER 20S...WHILE AREAS ACROSS NW CT AND WESTERN MA ARE AMONG THE
COLDEST...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS.

SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 630 AM EST...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS...IN THE
LOWER 20S...WHILE AREAS ACROSS NW CT AND WESTERN MA ARE AMONG THE
COLDEST...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS.

SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 630 AM EST...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS...IN THE
LOWER 20S...WHILE AREAS ACROSS NW CT AND WESTERN MA ARE AMONG THE
COLDEST...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS.

SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 630 AM EST...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS...IN THE
LOWER 20S...WHILE AREAS ACROSS NW CT AND WESTERN MA ARE AMONG THE
COLDEST...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS.

SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221124
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH
WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS A RESULT, A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE 00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING MOST
AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH MELTING
OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH
WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE. EXPECT 0.25-
0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON SO
STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS
WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON... WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS STARTING AROUND NOON AND LASTING
INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET,
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS
AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 221124
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH
WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS A RESULT, A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE 00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING MOST
AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH MELTING
OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH
WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE. EXPECT 0.25-
0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON SO
STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS
WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON... WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS STARTING AROUND NOON AND LASTING
INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET,
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS
AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 221104
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
604 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 4 AM EST...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE...AS TEMPS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESP FOR AREAS
S AND E OF ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
EXPAND BACK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH COULD REACH FAR WESTERN
AREAS AS EARLY AS 3 OR 4 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221104
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
604 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 4 AM EST...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE...AS TEMPS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESP FOR AREAS
S AND E OF ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
EXPAND BACK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH COULD REACH FAR WESTERN
AREAS AS EARLY AS 3 OR 4 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 220916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 4 AM EST...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE...AS TEMPS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESP FOR AREAS
S AND E OF ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
EXPAND BACK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH COULD REACH FAR WESTERN
AREAS AS EARLY AS 3 OR 4 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 220916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 4 AM EST...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE...AS TEMPS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESP FOR AREAS
S AND E OF ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
EXPAND BACK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH COULD REACH FAR WESTERN
AREAS AS EARLY AS 3 OR 4 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 220916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 4 AM EST...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE...AS TEMPS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESP FOR AREAS
S AND E OF ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
EXPAND BACK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH COULD REACH FAR WESTERN
AREAS AS EARLY AS 3 OR 4 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 220916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 4 AM EST...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE...AS TEMPS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESP FOR AREAS
S AND E OF ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
EXPAND BACK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH COULD REACH FAR WESTERN
AREAS AS EARLY AS 3 OR 4 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 220907
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
407 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH
WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS A RESULT, A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE 00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING MOST
AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH MELTING
OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH
WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE. EXPECT 0.25-
0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR
CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE
COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA
MIXED IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON... WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS STARTING AROUND NOON AND LASTING
INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET,
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS
AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KBTV 220907
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
407 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH
WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS A RESULT, A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE 00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING MOST
AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH MELTING
OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH
WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE. EXPECT 0.25-
0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT