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000
FXUS61 KBTV 241414
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1014 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1013 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. COLD
AIR ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE A BIT...SO HAVE ADJUST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CL NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CLEARING HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR AT RUT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHERE CEILINGS HAVE STAYED GENERALLY MVFR (IFR AT
TIMES). THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE TRENDING
VFR. BKN/OVC VFR FOR REST OF THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT). MIST/FOG WITH
POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITIES APPEARS A GOOD BET AT SLK AND MPV
UNDER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. NORTH WINDS 6-10 KNOTS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI - 00Z SAT...VFR. CAN`T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTING HIGHER TERRAIN (PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK) THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

00Z SAT - 12Z SAT...VFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY AT MPV
AND SLK WITH FOG/MIST.

12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 241414
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1014 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1013 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. COLD
AIR ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE A BIT...SO HAVE ADJUST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CL NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CLEARING HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR AT RUT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHERE CEILINGS HAVE STAYED GENERALLY MVFR (IFR AT
TIMES). THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE TRENDING
VFR. BKN/OVC VFR FOR REST OF THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT). MIST/FOG WITH
POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITIES APPEARS A GOOD BET AT SLK AND MPV
UNDER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. NORTH WINDS 6-10 KNOTS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI - 00Z SAT...VFR. CAN`T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTING HIGHER TERRAIN (PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK) THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

00Z SAT - 12Z SAT...VFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY AT MPV
AND SLK WITH FOG/MIST.

12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 241414
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1014 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1013 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. COLD
AIR ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE A BIT...SO HAVE ADJUST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CL NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CLEARING HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR AT RUT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHERE CEILINGS HAVE STAYED GENERALLY MVFR (IFR AT
TIMES). THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE TRENDING
VFR. BKN/OVC VFR FOR REST OF THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT). MIST/FOG WITH
POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITIES APPEARS A GOOD BET AT SLK AND MPV
UNDER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. NORTH WINDS 6-10 KNOTS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI - 00Z SAT...VFR. CAN`T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTING HIGHER TERRAIN (PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK) THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

00Z SAT - 12Z SAT...VFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY AT MPV
AND SLK WITH FOG/MIST.

12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 241414
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1014 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1013 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. COLD
AIR ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE A BIT...SO HAVE ADJUST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CL NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CLEARING HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR AT RUT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHERE CEILINGS HAVE STAYED GENERALLY MVFR (IFR AT
TIMES). THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE TRENDING
VFR. BKN/OVC VFR FOR REST OF THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT). MIST/FOG WITH
POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITIES APPEARS A GOOD BET AT SLK AND MPV
UNDER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. NORTH WINDS 6-10 KNOTS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI - 00Z SAT...VFR. CAN`T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTING HIGHER TERRAIN (PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK) THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

00Z SAT - 12Z SAT...VFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY AT MPV
AND SLK WITH FOG/MIST.

12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 241107
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
707 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOVLES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 623 AM EDT THURSDAY...SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND
T/TD DATASETS TO NUDGE TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. REST
OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER RETURNS
TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TO
THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUDS
WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STEADILY
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES.
HIGHS QUITE PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S AS AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 40S UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PTLY CLOUDY/CLR NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CLEARING HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR AT RUT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHERE CEILINGS HAVE STAYED GENERALLY MVFR (IFR AT
TIMES). THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE TRENDING
VFR. BKN/OVC VFR FOR REST OF THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT). MIST/FOG WITH
POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITIES APPEARS A GOOD BET AT SLK AND MPV
UNDER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI - 00Z SAT...VFR. CAN`T RULE OUT AN AFTN ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTING HIGHER TERRAIN (PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK) THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

00Z SAT - 12Z SAT...VFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY AT MPV
AND SLK WITH FOG/MIST.

12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO










000
FXUS61 KBTV 241107
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
707 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOVLES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 623 AM EDT THURSDAY...SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND
T/TD DATASETS TO NUDGE TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. REST
OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER RETURNS
TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TO
THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUDS
WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STEADILY
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES.
HIGHS QUITE PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S AS AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 40S UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PTLY CLOUDY/CLR NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CLEARING HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR AT RUT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHERE CEILINGS HAVE STAYED GENERALLY MVFR (IFR AT
TIMES). THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE TRENDING
VFR. BKN/OVC VFR FOR REST OF THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT). MIST/FOG WITH
POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITIES APPEARS A GOOD BET AT SLK AND MPV
UNDER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI - 00Z SAT...VFR. CAN`T RULE OUT AN AFTN ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTING HIGHER TERRAIN (PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK) THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

00Z SAT - 12Z SAT...VFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY AT MPV
AND SLK WITH FOG/MIST.

12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO










  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 241033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
633 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOSTLY SCT-BKN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE INCREASED THE SKY GRIDS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAVE EXITED THE REGION AS A
NORTHERLY WIND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION
WHICH WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DESCEND AS THIS TREND WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE H850 TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLE AROUND +10C...HOWEVER...WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 75-80F AND MAINLY LOWER-MIDDLE
70S FOR THE TERRAIN. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARD DAYS
END AS SUBSIDENCE LAYER LOWERS AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS
YIELD DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
AN INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN
FOG IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF AFT
08Z.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 241033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
633 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOSTLY SCT-BKN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE INCREASED THE SKY GRIDS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAVE EXITED THE REGION AS A
NORTHERLY WIND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION
WHICH WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DESCEND AS THIS TREND WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE H850 TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLE AROUND +10C...HOWEVER...WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 75-80F AND MAINLY LOWER-MIDDLE
70S FOR THE TERRAIN. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARD DAYS
END AS SUBSIDENCE LAYER LOWERS AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS
YIELD DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
AN INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN
FOG IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF AFT
08Z.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 241026
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOSTLY SCT-BKN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE INCREASED THE SKY GRIDS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAVE EXITED THE REGION AS A
NORTHERLY WIND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION
WHICH WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DESCEND AS THIS TREND WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE H850 TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLE AROUND +10C...HOWEVER...WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 75-80F AND MAINLY LOWER-MIDDLE
70S FOR THE TERRAIN. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARD DAYS
END AS SUBSIDENCE LAYER LOWERS AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS
YIELD DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
AN INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN FOG
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF AFT
08Z.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY








000
FXUS61 KALY 241026
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOSTLY SCT-BKN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE INCREASED THE SKY GRIDS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAVE EXITED THE REGION AS A
NORTHERLY WIND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION
WHICH WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DESCEND AS THIS TREND WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE H850 TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLE AROUND +10C...HOWEVER...WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 75-80F AND MAINLY LOWER-MIDDLE
70S FOR THE TERRAIN. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARD DAYS
END AS SUBSIDENCE LAYER LOWERS AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS
YIELD DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
AN INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN FOG
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF AFT
08Z.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY







000
FXUS61 KBTV 241023
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
623 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOVLES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 623 AM EDT THURSDAY...SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND
T/TD DATASETS TO NUDGE TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. REST
OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER RETURNS
TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TO
THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUDS
WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STEADILY
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES.
HIGHS QUITE PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S AS AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 40S UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PTLY CLOUDY/CLR NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...STILL LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT RUT THAT
LOOK TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PREDOMINANTLY BKN/OVC VFR
CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR ALL SITES. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS WILL LIKELY
KEEP MIST OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING...DESPITE FAVORABLE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY UNDER MODEST COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT) THURSDAY. STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT BTV...WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DROPPING OFF TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. FOG/MIST LOOKS MORE LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS WITH 6SM BR AT MPV AND SLK
AROUND 04Z/25TH.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO






000
FXUS61 KBTV 240745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOVLES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AS THE COLD
FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TO THE REGION
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STEADILY
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES.
HIGHS QUITE PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S AS AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 40S UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PTLY CLOUDY/CLR NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...STILL LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT RUT THAT
LOOK TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PREDOMINANTLY BKN/OVC VFR
CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR ALL SITES. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS WILL LIKELY
KEEP MIST OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING...DESPITE FAVORABLE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY UNDER MODEST COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT) THURSDAY. STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT BTV...WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DROPPING OFF TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. FOG/MIST LOOKS MORE LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS WITH 6SM BR AT MPV AND SLK
AROUND 04Z/25TH.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO






000
FXUS61 KALY 240745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAVE EXITED THE REGION AS A
NORTHERLY WIND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION
WHICH WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DESCEND AS THIS TREND WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE H850 TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLE AROUND +10C...HOWEVER...WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 75-80F AND MAINLY LOWER-MIDDLE
70S FOR THE TERRAIN. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARD DAYS
END AS SUBSIDENCE LAYER LOWERS AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS YIELD
DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPOU AND KPSF WHERE THE RAIN WILL END SHORTLY. DUE TO
SOME UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND WIND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z FRI. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY SCT050 SCT250 AFT 12Z WITH SKC CONDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 240745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAVE EXITED THE REGION AS A
NORTHERLY WIND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION
WHICH WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DESCEND AS THIS TREND WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE H850 TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLE AROUND +10C...HOWEVER...WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 75-80F AND MAINLY LOWER-MIDDLE
70S FOR THE TERRAIN. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARD DAYS
END AS SUBSIDENCE LAYER LOWERS AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS YIELD
DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPOU AND KPSF WHERE THE RAIN WILL END SHORTLY. DUE TO
SOME UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND WIND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z FRI. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY SCT050 SCT250 AFT 12Z WITH SKC CONDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KBTV 240745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOVLES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AS THE COLD
FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TO THE REGION
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STEADILY
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES.
HIGHS QUITE PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S AS AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 40S UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PTLY CLOUDY/CLR NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...STILL LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT RUT THAT
LOOK TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PREDOMINANTLY BKN/OVC VFR
CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR ALL SITES. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS WILL LIKELY
KEEP MIST OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING...DESPITE FAVORABLE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY UNDER MODEST COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT) THURSDAY. STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT BTV...WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DROPPING OFF TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. FOG/MIST LOOKS MORE LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS WITH 6SM BR AT MPV AND SLK
AROUND 04Z/25TH.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO






000
FXUS61 KALY 240745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAVE EXITED THE REGION AS A
NORTHERLY WIND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION
WHICH WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DESCEND AS THIS TREND WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE H850 TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLE AROUND +10C...HOWEVER...WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 75-80F AND MAINLY LOWER-MIDDLE
70S FOR THE TERRAIN. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARD DAYS
END AS SUBSIDENCE LAYER LOWERS AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS YIELD
DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPOU AND KPSF WHERE THE RAIN WILL END SHORTLY. DUE TO
SOME UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND WIND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z FRI. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY SCT050 SCT250 AFT 12Z WITH SKC CONDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 240745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAVE EXITED THE REGION AS A
NORTHERLY WIND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION
WHICH WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DESCEND AS THIS TREND WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE H850 TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLE AROUND +10C...HOWEVER...WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 75-80F AND MAINLY LOWER-MIDDLE
70S FOR THE TERRAIN. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARD DAYS
END AS SUBSIDENCE LAYER LOWERS AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS YIELD
DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPOU AND KPSF WHERE THE RAIN WILL END SHORTLY. DUE TO
SOME UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND WIND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z FRI. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY SCT050 SCT250 AFT 12Z WITH SKC CONDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KBTV 240745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOVLES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AS THE COLD
FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TO THE REGION
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STEADILY
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES.
HIGHS QUITE PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S AS AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 40S UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PTLY CLOUDY/CLR NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...STILL LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT RUT THAT
LOOK TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PREDOMINANTLY BKN/OVC VFR
CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR ALL SITES. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS WILL LIKELY
KEEP MIST OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING...DESPITE FAVORABLE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY UNDER MODEST COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT) THURSDAY. STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT BTV...WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DROPPING OFF TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. FOG/MIST LOOKS MORE LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS WITH 6SM BR AT MPV AND SLK
AROUND 04Z/25TH.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO






000
FXUS61 KALY 240745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAVE EXITED THE REGION AS A
NORTHERLY WIND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION
WHICH WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DESCEND AS THIS TREND WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE H850 TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLE AROUND +10C...HOWEVER...WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 75-80F AND MAINLY LOWER-MIDDLE
70S FOR THE TERRAIN. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARD DAYS
END AS SUBSIDENCE LAYER LOWERS AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS YIELD
DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPOU AND KPSF WHERE THE RAIN WILL END SHORTLY. DUE TO
SOME UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND WIND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z FRI. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY SCT050 SCT250 AFT 12Z WITH SKC CONDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 240745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAVE EXITED THE REGION AS A
NORTHERLY WIND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION
WHICH WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DESCEND AS THIS TREND WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE H850 TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLE AROUND +10C...HOWEVER...WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 75-80F AND MAINLY LOWER-MIDDLE
70S FOR THE TERRAIN. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARD DAYS
END AS SUBSIDENCE LAYER LOWERS AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS YIELD
DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPOU AND KPSF WHERE THE RAIN WILL END SHORTLY. DUE TO
SOME UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND WIND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z FRI. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY SCT050 SCT250 AFT 12Z WITH SKC CONDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KBTV 240745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOVLES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AS THE COLD
FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TO THE REGION
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STEADILY
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES.
HIGHS QUITE PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S AS AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 40S UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PTLY CLOUDY/CLR NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...STILL LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT RUT THAT
LOOK TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PREDOMINANTLY BKN/OVC VFR
CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR ALL SITES. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS WILL LIKELY
KEEP MIST OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING...DESPITE FAVORABLE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY UNDER MODEST COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT) THURSDAY. STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT BTV...WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DROPPING OFF TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. FOG/MIST LOOKS MORE LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS WITH 6SM BR AT MPV AND SLK
AROUND 04Z/25TH.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 240531
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1046 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE STORMS HAVE PUSHED WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE SVR TSTM WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELED ACROSS VT AND NRN NY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL
STORM REPORT STATEMENT FOR DAMAGE REPORTS RECEIVED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES WILL
GENERALLY END BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW AND COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NW-SE. MAY SEE A BIT
OF PATCHY FOG AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT WHERE SOME LOCATIONS
RECEIVED 1-2" OF RAINFALL. THAT SAID...THE DRIER AIR AND NW WINDS
5-10 MPH WILL LIMIT EXTENT/DURATION OF FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO MIXING. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK...AND LOCALLY INTO THE UPR 40S ACROSS NRN
NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE
ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...DID
NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WENT WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...STILL LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT RUT THAT
LOOK TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PREDOMINANTLY BKN/OVC VFR
CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR ALL SITES. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS WILL LIKELY
KEEP MIST OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING...DESPITE FAVORABLE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY UNDER MODEST COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT) THURSDAY. STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT BTV...WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DROPPING OFF TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. FOG/MIST LOOKS MORE LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS WITH 6SM BR AT MPV AND SLK
AROUND 04Z/25TH.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KBTV 240531
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1046 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE STORMS HAVE PUSHED WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE SVR TSTM WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELED ACROSS VT AND NRN NY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL
STORM REPORT STATEMENT FOR DAMAGE REPORTS RECEIVED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES WILL
GENERALLY END BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW AND COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NW-SE. MAY SEE A BIT
OF PATCHY FOG AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT WHERE SOME LOCATIONS
RECEIVED 1-2" OF RAINFALL. THAT SAID...THE DRIER AIR AND NW WINDS
5-10 MPH WILL LIMIT EXTENT/DURATION OF FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO MIXING. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK...AND LOCALLY INTO THE UPR 40S ACROSS NRN
NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE
ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...DID
NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WENT WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...STILL LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT RUT THAT
LOOK TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PREDOMINANTLY BKN/OVC VFR
CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR ALL SITES. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS WILL LIKELY
KEEP MIST OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING...DESPITE FAVORABLE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY UNDER MODEST COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT) THURSDAY. STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT BTV...WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DROPPING OFF TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. FOG/MIST LOOKS MORE LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS WITH 6SM BR AT MPV AND SLK
AROUND 04Z/25TH.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KBTV 240531
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1046 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE STORMS HAVE PUSHED WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE SVR TSTM WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELED ACROSS VT AND NRN NY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL
STORM REPORT STATEMENT FOR DAMAGE REPORTS RECEIVED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES WILL
GENERALLY END BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW AND COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NW-SE. MAY SEE A BIT
OF PATCHY FOG AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT WHERE SOME LOCATIONS
RECEIVED 1-2" OF RAINFALL. THAT SAID...THE DRIER AIR AND NW WINDS
5-10 MPH WILL LIMIT EXTENT/DURATION OF FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO MIXING. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK...AND LOCALLY INTO THE UPR 40S ACROSS NRN
NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE
ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...DID
NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WENT WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...STILL LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT RUT THAT
LOOK TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PREDOMINANTLY BKN/OVC VFR
CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR ALL SITES. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS WILL LIKELY
KEEP MIST OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING...DESPITE FAVORABLE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY UNDER MODEST COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT) THURSDAY. STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT BTV...WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DROPPING OFF TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. FOG/MIST LOOKS MORE LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS WITH 6SM BR AT MPV AND SLK
AROUND 04Z/25TH.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KBTV 240531
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1046 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE STORMS HAVE PUSHED WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE SVR TSTM WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELED ACROSS VT AND NRN NY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL
STORM REPORT STATEMENT FOR DAMAGE REPORTS RECEIVED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES WILL
GENERALLY END BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW AND COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NW-SE. MAY SEE A BIT
OF PATCHY FOG AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT WHERE SOME LOCATIONS
RECEIVED 1-2" OF RAINFALL. THAT SAID...THE DRIER AIR AND NW WINDS
5-10 MPH WILL LIMIT EXTENT/DURATION OF FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO MIXING. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK...AND LOCALLY INTO THE UPR 40S ACROSS NRN
NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE
ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...DID
NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WENT WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...STILL LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT RUT THAT
LOOK TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PREDOMINANTLY BKN/OVC VFR
CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR ALL SITES. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS WILL LIKELY
KEEP MIST OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING...DESPITE FAVORABLE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY UNDER MODEST COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT) THURSDAY. STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT BTV...WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DROPPING OFF TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. FOG/MIST LOOKS MORE LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS WITH 6SM BR AT MPV AND SLK
AROUND 04Z/25TH.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KALY 240515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TOMORROW AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...COLD FRONT WAS PASSING JUST SOUTH OF KALB
WHERE A RENEWED REGION OF SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS COLD
FRONT HAVE DEVELOPED. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
APPARENT...ITS ALSO AIDED BY THE UPPER JET IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM. SO WE WILL
RAISE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THE
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FROPA WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AND EVENTUALLY LESS HUMID AIR
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SO DID INCLUDE MORE
CLOUDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPOU AND KPSF WHERE THE RAIN WILL END SHORTLY. DUE TO
SOME UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND WIND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z FRI. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY SCT050 SCT250 AFT 12Z WITH SKC CONDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN RENSSELAER AND
BERSKSHIRE COUNTIES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH
NEARLY AS MUCH RAINFALL.

THIS RAIN SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS.

LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND AGAIN THIS SHOULD HAVE ONLY MINOR AFFECTS ON THE RIVERS.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COOLER LESS HUMID
AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 240515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TOMORROW AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...COLD FRONT WAS PASSING JUST SOUTH OF KALB
WHERE A RENEWED REGION OF SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS COLD
FRONT HAVE DEVELOPED. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
APPARENT...ITS ALSO AIDED BY THE UPPER JET IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM. SO WE WILL
RAISE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THE
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FROPA WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AND EVENTUALLY LESS HUMID AIR
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SO DID INCLUDE MORE
CLOUDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPOU AND KPSF WHERE THE RAIN WILL END SHORTLY. DUE TO
SOME UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND WIND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z FRI. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY SCT050 SCT250 AFT 12Z WITH SKC CONDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN RENSSELAER AND
BERSKSHIRE COUNTIES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH
NEARLY AS MUCH RAINFALL.

THIS RAIN SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS.

LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND AGAIN THIS SHOULD HAVE ONLY MINOR AFFECTS ON THE RIVERS.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COOLER LESS HUMID
AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 240500
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
100 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TOMORROW AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...COLD FRONT WAS PASSING JUST SOUTH OF KALB
WHERE A RENEWED REGION OF SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS COLD
FRONT HAVE DEVELOPED. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
APPARENT...ITS ALSO AIDED BY THE UPPER JET IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM. SO WE WILL
RAISE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THE
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FROPA WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AND EVENTUALLY LESS HUMID AIR
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SO DID INCLUDE MORE
CLOUDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR OUR ENTIRE
REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS HAD CLEARED THE TAFS. STILL KEEP VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS
FOR LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 06Z AT KPOU
SINCE THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG
MAY FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK
BUT ONLY INDICATING 3SM BR AT KGFL/KPSF SINCE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF
A BREEZE BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT
KPSF.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...AND IT LOOKS AS IF THE
FRONT AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR OUR REGION AFTER 12Z.

THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN RENSSELAER AND
BERSKSHIRE COUNTIES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH
NEARLY AS MUCH RAINFALL.

THIS RAIN SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS.

LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND AGAIN THIS SHOULD HAVE ONLY MINOR AFFECTS ON THE RIVERS.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COOLER LESS HUMID
AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 240500
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
100 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TOMORROW AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...COLD FRONT WAS PASSING JUST SOUTH OF KALB
WHERE A RENEWED REGION OF SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS COLD
FRONT HAVE DEVELOPED. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
APPARENT...ITS ALSO AIDED BY THE UPPER JET IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM. SO WE WILL
RAISE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THE
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FROPA WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AND EVENTUALLY LESS HUMID AIR
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SO DID INCLUDE MORE
CLOUDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR OUR ENTIRE
REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS HAD CLEARED THE TAFS. STILL KEEP VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS
FOR LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 06Z AT KPOU
SINCE THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG
MAY FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK
BUT ONLY INDICATING 3SM BR AT KGFL/KPSF SINCE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF
A BREEZE BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT
KPSF.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...AND IT LOOKS AS IF THE
FRONT AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR OUR REGION AFTER 12Z.

THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN RENSSELAER AND
BERSKSHIRE COUNTIES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH
NEARLY AS MUCH RAINFALL.

THIS RAIN SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS.

LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND AGAIN THIS SHOULD HAVE ONLY MINOR AFFECTS ON THE RIVERS.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COOLER LESS HUMID
AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 240250
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1050 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1046 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE STORMS HAVE PUSHED WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE SVR TSTM WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELED ACROSS VT AND NRN NY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL
STORM REPORT STATEMENT FOR DAMAGE REPORTS RECEIVED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES WILL
GENERALLY END BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW AND COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NW-SE. MAY SEE A BIT
OF PATCHY FOG AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT WHERE SOME LOCATIONS
RECEIVED 1-2" OF RAINFALL. THAT SAID...THE DRIER AIR AND NW WINDS
5-10 MPH WILL LIMIT EXTENT/DURATION OF FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO MIXING. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK...AND LOCALLY INTO THE UPR 40S ACROSS NRN
NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE
ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...DID
NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WENT WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CPV...LEAVING
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. KPBG/KMPV
AND KRUT MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS...WITH VSBYS REDUCING TO
MVFR/IFR. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW AT KMSS AND WILL
SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO BE VRB AROUND 5
KTS OR LESS AT ALL BUT KMSS EARLY THIS EVENING. BEFORE DRYING NW
FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP...WITH MVFR VSBYS PSBL. BY 03Z/04Z...EXPECT NW WINDS TO
TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA...AT 6-10KTS...DISSIPATING THE PATCHY FOG.
VFR LOW CLOUDS WILL DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH FEW-
SCT BY SUNRISE.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 8-12KTS CONTINUING
OUT OF THE NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM






000
FXUS61 KBTV 240250
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1050 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1046 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE STORMS HAVE PUSHED WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE SVR TSTM WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELED ACROSS VT AND NRN NY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL
STORM REPORT STATEMENT FOR DAMAGE REPORTS RECEIVED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES WILL
GENERALLY END BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW AND COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NW-SE. MAY SEE A BIT
OF PATCHY FOG AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT WHERE SOME LOCATIONS
RECEIVED 1-2" OF RAINFALL. THAT SAID...THE DRIER AIR AND NW WINDS
5-10 MPH WILL LIMIT EXTENT/DURATION OF FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO MIXING. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK...AND LOCALLY INTO THE UPR 40S ACROSS NRN
NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE
ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...DID
NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WENT WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CPV...LEAVING
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. KPBG/KMPV
AND KRUT MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS...WITH VSBYS REDUCING TO
MVFR/IFR. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW AT KMSS AND WILL
SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO BE VRB AROUND 5
KTS OR LESS AT ALL BUT KMSS EARLY THIS EVENING. BEFORE DRYING NW
FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP...WITH MVFR VSBYS PSBL. BY 03Z/04Z...EXPECT NW WINDS TO
TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA...AT 6-10KTS...DISSIPATING THE PATCHY FOG.
VFR LOW CLOUDS WILL DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH FEW-
SCT BY SUNRISE.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 8-12KTS CONTINUING
OUT OF THE NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM






000
FXUS61 KBTV 240250
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1050 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1046 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE STORMS HAVE PUSHED WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE SVR TSTM WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELED ACROSS VT AND NRN NY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL
STORM REPORT STATEMENT FOR DAMAGE REPORTS RECEIVED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES WILL
GENERALLY END BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW AND COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NW-SE. MAY SEE A BIT
OF PATCHY FOG AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT WHERE SOME LOCATIONS
RECEIVED 1-2" OF RAINFALL. THAT SAID...THE DRIER AIR AND NW WINDS
5-10 MPH WILL LIMIT EXTENT/DURATION OF FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO MIXING. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK...AND LOCALLY INTO THE UPR 40S ACROSS NRN
NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE
ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...DID
NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WENT WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CPV...LEAVING
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. KPBG/KMPV
AND KRUT MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS...WITH VSBYS REDUCING TO
MVFR/IFR. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW AT KMSS AND WILL
SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO BE VRB AROUND 5
KTS OR LESS AT ALL BUT KMSS EARLY THIS EVENING. BEFORE DRYING NW
FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP...WITH MVFR VSBYS PSBL. BY 03Z/04Z...EXPECT NW WINDS TO
TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA...AT 6-10KTS...DISSIPATING THE PATCHY FOG.
VFR LOW CLOUDS WILL DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH FEW-
SCT BY SUNRISE.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 8-12KTS CONTINUING
OUT OF THE NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM






000
FXUS61 KBTV 240250
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1050 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1046 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE STORMS HAVE PUSHED WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE SVR TSTM WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELED ACROSS VT AND NRN NY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL
STORM REPORT STATEMENT FOR DAMAGE REPORTS RECEIVED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES WILL
GENERALLY END BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW AND COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NW-SE. MAY SEE A BIT
OF PATCHY FOG AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT WHERE SOME LOCATIONS
RECEIVED 1-2" OF RAINFALL. THAT SAID...THE DRIER AIR AND NW WINDS
5-10 MPH WILL LIMIT EXTENT/DURATION OF FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO MIXING. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK...AND LOCALLY INTO THE UPR 40S ACROSS NRN
NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE
ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...DID
NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WENT WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CPV...LEAVING
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. KPBG/KMPV
AND KRUT MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS...WITH VSBYS REDUCING TO
MVFR/IFR. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW AT KMSS AND WILL
SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO BE VRB AROUND 5
KTS OR LESS AT ALL BUT KMSS EARLY THIS EVENING. BEFORE DRYING NW
FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP...WITH MVFR VSBYS PSBL. BY 03Z/04Z...EXPECT NW WINDS TO
TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA...AT 6-10KTS...DISSIPATING THE PATCHY FOG.
VFR LOW CLOUDS WILL DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH FEW-
SCT BY SUNRISE.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 8-12KTS CONTINUING
OUT OF THE NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM






000
FXUS61 KALY 240154
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
955 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TOMORROW AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FOR OUR ENTIRE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRETTY MUCH MOVED OUT OF
OUR REGION...JUST SCRAPING SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD BUT WILL BE OUT OF
THERE SHORTLY AFTER 10 PM. SURFACE BOUND CAPES WERE UNDER 1000 1000
J/KG IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOSE TO ZERO ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE JUST SOME LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WORKING DOWN THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY. BEHIND THIS
SECOND FRONT IS WHERE THE AIRMASS REALLY CHANGES...DEWPOINTS FALLING
FROM AROUND 70...TO 60 IN A FEW HOURS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH THE DRIER AIR REACHING OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.


THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM STILL HAVE LAGGED
BEHIND...BUT MOISTURE WAS DRYING OUT SO NOT MUCH TO WORK
WITH...THEREFORE JUST HAVE SOME LINGERING FAIRLY LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR OUR ENTIRE
REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS HAD CLEARED THE TAFS. STILL KEEP VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS
FOR LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 06Z AT KPOU
SINCE THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG
MAY FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK
BUT ONLY INDICATING 3SM BR AT KGFL/KPSF SINCE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF
A BREEZE BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT
KPSF.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...AND IT LOOKS AS IF THE
FRONT AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR OUR REGION AFTER 12Z.

THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN RENSSELAER AND
BERSKSHIRE COUNTIES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH
NEARLY AS MUCH RAINFALL.

THIS RAIN SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS.

LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND AGAIN THIS SHOULD HAVE ONLY MINOR AFFECTS ON THE RIVERS.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COOLER LESS HUMID
AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 240009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
741 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED INTO THE CAPITAL REGION. COOLER AIR A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHILE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION UNTIL 10 PM. AFTER THAT...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
WHOLE REGION BY THURSDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. LAPS
ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN KNOCKED DOWN TO
LESS THAN A 1000 J/KG IN THIS AREA. RADAR TRENDS HAVE WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY. SHOULD ONLY HAVE MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...TAPERING
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH LITTLE IF
ANY THUNDER HAPPENING.

THERE WAS STILL OVER 2000 J/KG WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN THOSE AREAS
UNTIL 1000 PM. THERE WAS A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING
THROUGH THIS AREA...AND ANY OF THESE COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 70S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST AS THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE COLD FRONT...HAVE WORKED THROUGH
THE REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WORKS INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KPOU AND KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR KALB/KGFL.

THUNDERSTORMS HAD CLEARED OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES (KPSF/KALB) BUT
WERE STILL NEAR AND IMPACTING KPOU/KPSF. THEY WILL DO SO THROUGH
ABOUT 01Z...SO WE HAVE VCTS IN THE TAF AND TEMPO FOR IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 06Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 3SM BR AT KGFL/KPSF SINCE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A
BREEZE BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT
KPSF.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...AND IT LOOKS AS IF THE
FRONT AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR OUR REGION AFTER 12Z.

THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV













000
FXUS61 KALY 240008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
741 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED INTO THE CAPITAL REGION. COOLER AIR A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHILE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION UNTIL 10 PM. AFTER THAT...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
WHOLE REGION BY THURSDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. LAPS
ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN KNOCKED DOWN TO
LESS THAN A 1000 J/KG IN THIS AREA. RADAR TRENDS HAVE WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY. SHOULD ONLY HAVE MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...TAPERING
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH LITTLE IF
ANY THUNDER HAPPENING.

THERE WAS STILL OVER 2000 J/KG WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN THOSE AREAS
UNTIL 1000 PM. THERE WAS A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING
THROUGH THIS AREA...AND ANY OF THESE COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 70S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST AS THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE COLD FRONT...HAVE WORKED THROUGH
THE REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WORKS INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KPOU AND KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR KALB/KGFL.

THUNDERSTORMS HAD CLEARED OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES (KPSF/KALB) BUT
WERE STILL NEAR AND IMPACTING KPOU/KPSF. THEY WILL DO SO THROUGH
ABOUT 01Z...SO WE HAVE VCTS IN THE TAF AND TEMPO FOR IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 06Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR SINCE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREEZE BEHIND
THE FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...AND IT LOOKS AS IF THE
FRONT AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR OUR REGION AFTER 12Z.

THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 240008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
741 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED INTO THE CAPITAL REGION. COOLER AIR A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHILE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION UNTIL 10 PM. AFTER THAT...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
WHOLE REGION BY THURSDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. LAPS
ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN KNOCKED DOWN TO
LESS THAN A 1000 J/KG IN THIS AREA. RADAR TRENDS HAVE WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY. SHOULD ONLY HAVE MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...TAPERING
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH LITTLE IF
ANY THUNDER HAPPENING.

THERE WAS STILL OVER 2000 J/KG WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN THOSE AREAS
UNTIL 1000 PM. THERE WAS A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING
THROUGH THIS AREA...AND ANY OF THESE COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 70S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST AS THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE COLD FRONT...HAVE WORKED THROUGH
THE REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WORKS INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KPOU AND KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR KALB/KGFL.

THUNDERSTORMS HAD CLEARED OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES (KPSF/KALB) BUT
WERE STILL NEAR AND IMPACTING KPOU/KPSF. THEY WILL DO SO THROUGH
ABOUT 01Z...SO WE HAVE VCTS IN THE TAF AND TEMPO FOR IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 06Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR SINCE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREEZE BEHIND
THE FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...AND IT LOOKS AS IF THE
FRONT AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR OUR REGION AFTER 12Z.

THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 232338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
738 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 721 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE STORMS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE SVR TSTM WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELED ACROSS VT AND NRN NY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL STORM
REPORT STATEMENT FOR DAMAGE REPORTS RECEIVED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS
COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THAT REGION. MAY ALSO SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG GIVEN THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (1-2") THAT OCCURRED
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...NW WINDS AND INCREASING DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CREATE
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO DISSIPATE MUCH OF THE FOG.
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER THAN RECENT NIGHTS
WITH FROPA AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SEWD FROM SERN ONTARIO.
LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK...AND LOCALLY INTO THE
UPR 40S ACROSS NRN NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE
ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...DID
NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WENT WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CPV...LEAVING
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. KPBG/KMPV
AND KRUT MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS...WITH VSBYS REDUCING TO
MVFR/IFR. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW AT KMSS AND WILL
SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO BE VRB AROUND 5
KTS OR LESS AT ALL BUT KMSS EARLY THIS EVENING. BEFORE DRYING NW
FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP...WITH MVFR VSBYS PSBL. BY 03Z/04Z...EXPECT NW WINDS TO
TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA...AT 6-10KTS...DISSIPATING THE PATCHY FOG.
VFR LOW CLOUDS WILL DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH FEW-
SCT BY SUNRISE.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 8-12KTS CONTINUING
OUT OF THE NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 232338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
738 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 721 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE STORMS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE SVR TSTM WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELED ACROSS VT AND NRN NY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL STORM
REPORT STATEMENT FOR DAMAGE REPORTS RECEIVED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS
COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THAT REGION. MAY ALSO SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG GIVEN THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (1-2") THAT OCCURRED
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...NW WINDS AND INCREASING DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CREATE
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO DISSIPATE MUCH OF THE FOG.
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER THAN RECENT NIGHTS
WITH FROPA AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SEWD FROM SERN ONTARIO.
LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK...AND LOCALLY INTO THE
UPR 40S ACROSS NRN NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE
ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...DID
NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WENT WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CPV...LEAVING
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. KPBG/KMPV
AND KRUT MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS...WITH VSBYS REDUCING TO
MVFR/IFR. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW AT KMSS AND WILL
SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO BE VRB AROUND 5
KTS OR LESS AT ALL BUT KMSS EARLY THIS EVENING. BEFORE DRYING NW
FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP...WITH MVFR VSBYS PSBL. BY 03Z/04Z...EXPECT NW WINDS TO
TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA...AT 6-10KTS...DISSIPATING THE PATCHY FOG.
VFR LOW CLOUDS WILL DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH FEW-
SCT BY SUNRISE.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 8-12KTS CONTINUING
OUT OF THE NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 232328
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 721 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE STORMS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE SVR TSTM WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELED ACROSS VT AND NRN NY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL STORM
REPORT STATEMENT FOR DAMAGE REPORTS RECEIVED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS
COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THAT REGION. MAY ALSO SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG GIVEN THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (1-2") THAT OCCURRED
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...NW WINDS AND INCREASING DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CREATE
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO DISSIPATE MUCH OF THE FOG.
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER THAN RECENT NIGHTS
WITH FROPA AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SEWD FROM SERN ONTARIO.
LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK...AND LOCALLY INTO THE
UPR 40S ACROSS NRN NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE
ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...DID
NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WENT WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...HAVE TIMED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO GROUPS...2-3 HRS
AT A TIME. ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED THREAT OF HAIL. SOUTH WINDS 10-12 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS LOOK TO
DROP OFF SOME THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT POST-
FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES STILL SUGGEST LOWER
CEILINGS TO LINGER WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF GREATER
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...THEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN
FOG 06-12Z FOR MPV AND SLK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO






000
FXUS61 KBTV 232328
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 721 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE STORMS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE SVR TSTM WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELED ACROSS VT AND NRN NY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL STORM
REPORT STATEMENT FOR DAMAGE REPORTS RECEIVED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS
COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THAT REGION. MAY ALSO SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG GIVEN THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (1-2") THAT OCCURRED
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...NW WINDS AND INCREASING DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CREATE
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO DISSIPATE MUCH OF THE FOG.
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER THAN RECENT NIGHTS
WITH FROPA AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SEWD FROM SERN ONTARIO.
LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK...AND LOCALLY INTO THE
UPR 40S ACROSS NRN NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE
ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...DID
NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WENT WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...HAVE TIMED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO GROUPS...2-3 HRS
AT A TIME. ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED THREAT OF HAIL. SOUTH WINDS 10-12 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS LOOK TO
DROP OFF SOME THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT POST-
FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES STILL SUGGEST LOWER
CEILINGS TO LINGER WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF GREATER
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...THEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN
FOG 06-12Z FOR MPV AND SLK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KALY 232253
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED INTO THE CAPITAL REGION. COOLER AIR A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHILE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION UNTIL 10 PM. AFTER THAT...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
WHOLE REGION BY THURSDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. LAPS
ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN KNOCKED DOWN TO
LESS THAN A 1000 J/KG IN THIS AREA. RADAR TRENDS HAVE WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY. SHOULD ONLY HAVE MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...TAPERING
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH LITTLE IF
ANY THUNDER HAPPENING.

THERE WAS STILL OVER 2000 J/KG WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN THOSE AREAS
UNTIL 1000 PM. THERE WAS A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING
THROUGH THIS AREA...AND ANY OF THESE COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 70S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST AS THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE COLD FRONT...HAVE WORKED THROUGH
THE REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WORKS INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 02Z. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO 50KTS AND HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR MORE. IN
ADDITION ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

AS OF 21Z...A LINE OF STORM BACKBUILDED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ALMOST TO THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
IN SCHOHARIE COUNTY TRACKING NORTHWEST. PLACED A VCTS IN THE ALBANY
TAF THROUGH 00Z...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR REDUCED RAIN AND WIND GUSTS
TO 30KTS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE IMPACTING KGFL BUT TEMPERATURES THERE HAD DROPPED
INTO THE 70S...LOWERING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE WORKING TOWARD THE PITTSFIELD AIRPORT AS WELL AS
KPOU. BOTH SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY STORMS WITHIN THE HOUR. HAVE VCTS
IN BOTH TAFS...AND OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS AT LEAST TO MVFR (COULD
EASILY DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR) DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH 25KTS OR BETTER.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 232253
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED INTO THE CAPITAL REGION. COOLER AIR A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHILE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION UNTIL 10 PM. AFTER THAT...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
WHOLE REGION BY THURSDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. LAPS
ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN KNOCKED DOWN TO
LESS THAN A 1000 J/KG IN THIS AREA. RADAR TRENDS HAVE WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY. SHOULD ONLY HAVE MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...TAPERING
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH LITTLE IF
ANY THUNDER HAPPENING.

THERE WAS STILL OVER 2000 J/KG WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN THOSE AREAS
UNTIL 1000 PM. THERE WAS A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING
THROUGH THIS AREA...AND ANY OF THESE COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 70S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST AS THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE COLD FRONT...HAVE WORKED THROUGH
THE REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WORKS INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 02Z. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO 50KTS AND HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR MORE. IN
ADDITION ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

AS OF 21Z...A LINE OF STORM BACKBUILDED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ALMOST TO THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
IN SCHOHARIE COUNTY TRACKING NORTHWEST. PLACED A VCTS IN THE ALBANY
TAF THROUGH 00Z...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR REDUCED RAIN AND WIND GUSTS
TO 30KTS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE IMPACTING KGFL BUT TEMPERATURES THERE HAD DROPPED
INTO THE 70S...LOWERING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE WORKING TOWARD THE PITTSFIELD AIRPORT AS WELL AS
KPOU. BOTH SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY STORMS WITHIN THE HOUR. HAVE VCTS
IN BOTH TAFS...AND OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS AT LEAST TO MVFR (COULD
EASILY DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR) DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH 25KTS OR BETTER.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 232132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
530 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 432 CONTINUES. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS...INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO NEARLY 4000
J/KG ACROSS OUR REGION. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...WAS ABOUT 30KTS
ACROSS AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

DESPITE MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0KM/C THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR CELLS TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY PULSE UP TO SEVERE
LIMITS.

WE HAVE ISSUED A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WARNING...ONE JUST
NORTHEAST OF ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...THE OTHER IN COLUMBIA
COUNTY. MORE COULD FOLLOW...BUT EVERYONE HAS A BETTER THAN 50/50
CHANCE OF AT LEAST GETTING MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HEARING THUNDER.

IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CAPITAL REGION
WILL BE FROM NOW THROUGH 600 PM...ASSUMING A LINE TO OUR NORTHWEST
HOLDS TOGETHER AND MOVES THROUGH. THIS COULD IMPACT THE TAIL END OF
EVENING DRIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN....LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN THE
VALLEYS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST...TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 70S AS THUNDERSTORMS WORK THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WORKS INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 02Z. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO 50KTS AND HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR MORE. IN
ADDITION ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

AS OF 21Z...A LINE OF STORM BACKBUILDED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ALMOST TO THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
IN SCHOHARIE COUNTY TRACKING NORTHWEST. PLACED A VCTS IN THE ALBANY
TAF THROUGH 00Z...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR REDUCED RAIN AND WIND GUSTS
TO 30KTS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE IMPACTING KGFL BUT TEMPERATURES THERE HAD DROPPED
INTO THE 70S...LOWERING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE WORKING TOWARD THE PITTSFIELD AIRPORT AS WELL AS
KPOU. BOTH SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY STORMS WITHIN THE HOUR. HAVE VCTS
IN BOTH TAFS...AND OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS AT LEAST TO MVFR (COULD
EASILY DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR) DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH 25KTS OR BETTER.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV












000
FXUS61 KALY 232132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
530 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 432 CONTINUES. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS...INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO NEARLY 4000
J/KG ACROSS OUR REGION. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...WAS ABOUT 30KTS
ACROSS AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

DESPITE MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0KM/C THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR CELLS TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY PULSE UP TO SEVERE
LIMITS.

WE HAVE ISSUED A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WARNING...ONE JUST
NORTHEAST OF ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...THE OTHER IN COLUMBIA
COUNTY. MORE COULD FOLLOW...BUT EVERYONE HAS A BETTER THAN 50/50
CHANCE OF AT LEAST GETTING MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HEARING THUNDER.

IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CAPITAL REGION
WILL BE FROM NOW THROUGH 600 PM...ASSUMING A LINE TO OUR NORTHWEST
HOLDS TOGETHER AND MOVES THROUGH. THIS COULD IMPACT THE TAIL END OF
EVENING DRIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN....LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN THE
VALLEYS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST...TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 70S AS THUNDERSTORMS WORK THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WORKS INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 02Z. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO 50KTS AND HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR MORE. IN
ADDITION ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

AS OF 21Z...A LINE OF STORM BACKBUILDED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ALMOST TO THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
IN SCHOHARIE COUNTY TRACKING NORTHWEST. PLACED A VCTS IN THE ALBANY
TAF THROUGH 00Z...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR REDUCED RAIN AND WIND GUSTS
TO 30KTS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE IMPACTING KGFL BUT TEMPERATURES THERE HAD DROPPED
INTO THE 70S...LOWERING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE WORKING TOWARD THE PITTSFIELD AIRPORT AS WELL AS
KPOU. BOTH SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY STORMS WITHIN THE HOUR. HAVE VCTS
IN BOTH TAFS...AND OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS AT LEAST TO MVFR (COULD
EASILY DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR) DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH 25KTS OR BETTER.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV












000
FXUS61 KALY 232132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
530 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 432 CONTINUES. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS...INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO NEARLY 4000
J/KG ACROSS OUR REGION. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...WAS ABOUT 30KTS
ACROSS AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

DESPITE MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0KM/C THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR CELLS TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY PULSE UP TO SEVERE
LIMITS.

WE HAVE ISSUED A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WARNING...ONE JUST
NORTHEAST OF ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...THE OTHER IN COLUMBIA
COUNTY. MORE COULD FOLLOW...BUT EVERYONE HAS A BETTER THAN 50/50
CHANCE OF AT LEAST GETTING MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HEARING THUNDER.

IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CAPITAL REGION
WILL BE FROM NOW THROUGH 600 PM...ASSUMING A LINE TO OUR NORTHWEST
HOLDS TOGETHER AND MOVES THROUGH. THIS COULD IMPACT THE TAIL END OF
EVENING DRIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN....LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN THE
VALLEYS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST...TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 70S AS THUNDERSTORMS WORK THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WORKS INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 02Z. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO 50KTS AND HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR MORE. IN
ADDITION ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

AS OF 21Z...A LINE OF STORM BACKBUILDED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ALMOST TO THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
IN SCHOHARIE COUNTY TRACKING NORTHWEST. PLACED A VCTS IN THE ALBANY
TAF THROUGH 00Z...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR REDUCED RAIN AND WIND GUSTS
TO 30KTS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE IMPACTING KGFL BUT TEMPERATURES THERE HAD DROPPED
INTO THE 70S...LOWERING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE WORKING TOWARD THE PITTSFIELD AIRPORT AS WELL AS
KPOU. BOTH SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY STORMS WITHIN THE HOUR. HAVE VCTS
IN BOTH TAFS...AND OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS AT LEAST TO MVFR (COULD
EASILY DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR) DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH 25KTS OR BETTER.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV












000
FXUS61 KALY 232132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
530 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 432 CONTINUES. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS...INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO NEARLY 4000
J/KG ACROSS OUR REGION. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...WAS ABOUT 30KTS
ACROSS AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

DESPITE MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0KM/C THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR CELLS TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY PULSE UP TO SEVERE
LIMITS.

WE HAVE ISSUED A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WARNING...ONE JUST
NORTHEAST OF ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...THE OTHER IN COLUMBIA
COUNTY. MORE COULD FOLLOW...BUT EVERYONE HAS A BETTER THAN 50/50
CHANCE OF AT LEAST GETTING MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HEARING THUNDER.

IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CAPITAL REGION
WILL BE FROM NOW THROUGH 600 PM...ASSUMING A LINE TO OUR NORTHWEST
HOLDS TOGETHER AND MOVES THROUGH. THIS COULD IMPACT THE TAIL END OF
EVENING DRIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN....LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN THE
VALLEYS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST...TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 70S AS THUNDERSTORMS WORK THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WORKS INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 02Z. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO 50KTS AND HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR MORE. IN
ADDITION ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

AS OF 21Z...A LINE OF STORM BACKBUILDED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ALMOST TO THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
IN SCHOHARIE COUNTY TRACKING NORTHWEST. PLACED A VCTS IN THE ALBANY
TAF THROUGH 00Z...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR REDUCED RAIN AND WIND GUSTS
TO 30KTS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE IMPACTING KGFL BUT TEMPERATURES THERE HAD DROPPED
INTO THE 70S...LOWERING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE WORKING TOWARD THE PITTSFIELD AIRPORT AS WELL AS
KPOU. BOTH SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY STORMS WITHIN THE HOUR. HAVE VCTS
IN BOTH TAFS...AND OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS AT LEAST TO MVFR (COULD
EASILY DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR) DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH 25KTS OR BETTER.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV












000
FXUS61 KALY 232117
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
515 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 432 CONTINUES. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS...INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO NEARLY 4000
J/KG ACROSS OUR REGION. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...WAS ABOUT 30KTS
ACROSS AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

DESPITE MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0KM/C THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR CELLS TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY PULSE UP TO SEVERE
LIMITS.

WE HAVE ISSUED A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WARNING...ONE JUST
NORTHEAST OF ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...THE OTHER IN COLUMBIA
COUNTY. MORE COULD FOLLOW...BUT EVERYONE HAS A BETTER THAN 50/50
CHANCE OF AT LEAST GETTING MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HEARING THUNDER.

IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CAPITAL REGION
WILL BE FROM NOW THROUGH 600 PM...ASSUMING A LINE TO OUR NORTHWEST
HOLDS TOGETHER AND MOVES THROUGH. THIS COULD IMPACT THE TAIL END OF
EVENING DRIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN....LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN THE
VALLEYS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST...TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 70S AS THUNDERSTORMS WORK THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WORKS INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
TIMING INDICATED IN MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND 21Z-22Z
AT KGFL AND KALB...22Z-23Z AT KPSF AND 23Z-24Z AT KPOU. SOME
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER
INTERSECTION NEAR THE KALB AIRPORT COULD SPARK A LOCALIZED SHOWER OR
STORM BEFORE 22Z BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY.  WILL AMEND ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND CAN BE TIMED MORE PRECISELY... BUT
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN BRIEF BURSTS AND AGAIN WILL AMEND IF THESE
CONDITIONS LOOK IMMINENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
COULD BE GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 232117
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
515 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 432 CONTINUES. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS...INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO NEARLY 4000
J/KG ACROSS OUR REGION. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...WAS ABOUT 30KTS
ACROSS AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

DESPITE MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0KM/C THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR CELLS TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY PULSE UP TO SEVERE
LIMITS.

WE HAVE ISSUED A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WARNING...ONE JUST
NORTHEAST OF ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...THE OTHER IN COLUMBIA
COUNTY. MORE COULD FOLLOW...BUT EVERYONE HAS A BETTER THAN 50/50
CHANCE OF AT LEAST GETTING MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HEARING THUNDER.

IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CAPITAL REGION
WILL BE FROM NOW THROUGH 600 PM...ASSUMING A LINE TO OUR NORTHWEST
HOLDS TOGETHER AND MOVES THROUGH. THIS COULD IMPACT THE TAIL END OF
EVENING DRIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN....LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN THE
VALLEYS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST...TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 70S AS THUNDERSTORMS WORK THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WORKS INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
TIMING INDICATED IN MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND 21Z-22Z
AT KGFL AND KALB...22Z-23Z AT KPSF AND 23Z-24Z AT KPOU. SOME
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER
INTERSECTION NEAR THE KALB AIRPORT COULD SPARK A LOCALIZED SHOWER OR
STORM BEFORE 22Z BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY.  WILL AMEND ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND CAN BE TIMED MORE PRECISELY... BUT
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN BRIEF BURSTS AND AGAIN WILL AMEND IF THESE
CONDITIONS LOOK IMMINENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
COULD BE GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 232047
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
447 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT HEADING TOWARD SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS
TIME. STILL EXPECTING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THESE STORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO COME TO AN END ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE
ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...DID
NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WENT WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...HAVE TIMED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO GROUPS...2-3 HRS
AT A TIME. ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED THREAT OF HAIL. SOUTH WINDS 10-12 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS LOOK TO
DROP OFF SOME THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT POST-
FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES STILL SUGGEST LOWER
CEILINGS TO LINGER WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF GREATER
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...THEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN
FOG 06-12Z FOR MPV AND SLK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HAVE KEPT UP THE LAKE THUNDERSTORM
ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
MARINE...WGH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 232047
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
447 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT HEADING TOWARD SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS
TIME. STILL EXPECTING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THESE STORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO COME TO AN END ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE
ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...DID
NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WENT WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...HAVE TIMED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO GROUPS...2-3 HRS
AT A TIME. ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED THREAT OF HAIL. SOUTH WINDS 10-12 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS LOOK TO
DROP OFF SOME THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT POST-
FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES STILL SUGGEST LOWER
CEILINGS TO LINGER WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF GREATER
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...THEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN
FOG 06-12Z FOR MPV AND SLK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HAVE KEPT UP THE LAKE THUNDERSTORM
ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
MARINE...WGH







000
FXUS61 KALY 232028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
333 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
1000 PM. INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO OVER 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION...AND THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO
30KTS...MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
MODEST...GENERALLY 5.5-6 KM/C.

RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...WHILE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS TRYING TO FORM ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR REGION JUST YET...A
BUT A FEW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM BURLINGTON/S AND BINGHAMTON/S
OFFICE WITH REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL.

AT THE VERY LEAST...STRONG INSTABILITY...A REDUCTION IN THE MID
LEVEL CAP (MID LEVEL COOLING)...WILL PRODUCE PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS EASILY CAPABLE OF REACHING "SEVERE" LIMITS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 58 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OR
LARGE HAIL AN INCH OR MORE. THE THREAT IS HIGHER FOR STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS.

THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED LINES OF
BOWING SEGMENTS. EITHER WAY...WE HAVE THE WATCH OUT.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS. DEWPOINTS WERE AROUND 70...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES WELL
INTO THE 90S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S BUT EVEN
HERE...HEAT INDICES WERE AROUND 90.

THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION WORKS INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN
BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
TIMING INDICATED IN MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND 21Z-22Z
AT KGFL AND KALB...22Z-23Z AT KPSF AND 23Z-24Z AT KPOU. SOME
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER
INTERSECTION NEAR THE KALB AIRPORT COULD SPARK A LOCALIZED SHOWER OR
STORM BEFORE 22Z BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY.  WILL AMEND ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND CAN BE TIMED MORE PRECISELY... BUT
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN BRIEF BURSTS AND AGAIN WILL AMEND IF THESE
CONDITIONS LOOK IMMINENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
COULD BE GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 232028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
333 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
1000 PM. INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO OVER 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION...AND THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO
30KTS...MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
MODEST...GENERALLY 5.5-6 KM/C.

RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...WHILE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS TRYING TO FORM ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR REGION JUST YET...A
BUT A FEW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM BURLINGTON/S AND BINGHAMTON/S
OFFICE WITH REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL.

AT THE VERY LEAST...STRONG INSTABILITY...A REDUCTION IN THE MID
LEVEL CAP (MID LEVEL COOLING)...WILL PRODUCE PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS EASILY CAPABLE OF REACHING "SEVERE" LIMITS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 58 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OR
LARGE HAIL AN INCH OR MORE. THE THREAT IS HIGHER FOR STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS.

THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED LINES OF
BOWING SEGMENTS. EITHER WAY...WE HAVE THE WATCH OUT.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS. DEWPOINTS WERE AROUND 70...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES WELL
INTO THE 90S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S BUT EVEN
HERE...HEAT INDICES WERE AROUND 90.

THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION WORKS INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN
BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
TIMING INDICATED IN MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND 21Z-22Z
AT KGFL AND KALB...22Z-23Z AT KPSF AND 23Z-24Z AT KPOU. SOME
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER
INTERSECTION NEAR THE KALB AIRPORT COULD SPARK A LOCALIZED SHOWER OR
STORM BEFORE 22Z BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY.  WILL AMEND ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND CAN BE TIMED MORE PRECISELY... BUT
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN BRIEF BURSTS AND AGAIN WILL AMEND IF THESE
CONDITIONS LOOK IMMINENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
COULD BE GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 232028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
333 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
1000 PM. INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO OVER 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION...AND THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO
30KTS...MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
MODEST...GENERALLY 5.5-6 KM/C.

RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...WHILE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS TRYING TO FORM ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR REGION JUST YET...A
BUT A FEW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM BURLINGTON/S AND BINGHAMTON/S
OFFICE WITH REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL.

AT THE VERY LEAST...STRONG INSTABILITY...A REDUCTION IN THE MID
LEVEL CAP (MID LEVEL COOLING)...WILL PRODUCE PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS EASILY CAPABLE OF REACHING "SEVERE" LIMITS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 58 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OR
LARGE HAIL AN INCH OR MORE. THE THREAT IS HIGHER FOR STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS.

THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED LINES OF
BOWING SEGMENTS. EITHER WAY...WE HAVE THE WATCH OUT.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS. DEWPOINTS WERE AROUND 70...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES WELL
INTO THE 90S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S BUT EVEN
HERE...HEAT INDICES WERE AROUND 90.

THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION WORKS INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN
BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
TIMING INDICATED IN MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND 21Z-22Z
AT KGFL AND KALB...22Z-23Z AT KPSF AND 23Z-24Z AT KPOU. SOME
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER
INTERSECTION NEAR THE KALB AIRPORT COULD SPARK A LOCALIZED SHOWER OR
STORM BEFORE 22Z BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY.  WILL AMEND ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND CAN BE TIMED MORE PRECISELY... BUT
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN BRIEF BURSTS AND AGAIN WILL AMEND IF THESE
CONDITIONS LOOK IMMINENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
COULD BE GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 232028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
333 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
1000 PM. INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO OVER 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION...AND THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO
30KTS...MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
MODEST...GENERALLY 5.5-6 KM/C.

RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...WHILE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS TRYING TO FORM ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR REGION JUST YET...A
BUT A FEW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM BURLINGTON/S AND BINGHAMTON/S
OFFICE WITH REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL.

AT THE VERY LEAST...STRONG INSTABILITY...A REDUCTION IN THE MID
LEVEL CAP (MID LEVEL COOLING)...WILL PRODUCE PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS EASILY CAPABLE OF REACHING "SEVERE" LIMITS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 58 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OR
LARGE HAIL AN INCH OR MORE. THE THREAT IS HIGHER FOR STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS.

THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED LINES OF
BOWING SEGMENTS. EITHER WAY...WE HAVE THE WATCH OUT.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS. DEWPOINTS WERE AROUND 70...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES WELL
INTO THE 90S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S BUT EVEN
HERE...HEAT INDICES WERE AROUND 90.

THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION WORKS INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN
BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
TIMING INDICATED IN MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND 21Z-22Z
AT KGFL AND KALB...22Z-23Z AT KPSF AND 23Z-24Z AT KPOU. SOME
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER
INTERSECTION NEAR THE KALB AIRPORT COULD SPARK A LOCALIZED SHOWER OR
STORM BEFORE 22Z BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY.  WILL AMEND ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND CAN BE TIMED MORE PRECISELY... BUT
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN BRIEF BURSTS AND AGAIN WILL AMEND IF THESE
CONDITIONS LOOK IMMINENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
COULD BE GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 231849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
233 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 1000 PM. INSTABILITY
HAS INCREASED TO OVER 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...AND THE
0-6KM BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 30KTS OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE MODEST...GENERALLY 5.5-6 KM/C.

AT THE VERY LEAST...STRONG INSTABILITY...A REDUCTION IN THE MID
LEVEL CAP (MID LEVEL COOLING)...WILL PRODUCE PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS EASILY CAPABLE OF REACHING "SEVERE" LIMITS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 58 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OR
LARGE HAIL AN INCH OR MORE. THE THREAT IS HIGHER FOR STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS.

THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED LINES OF
BOWING SEGMENTS. EITHER WAY...WE HAVE THE WATCH OUT.

TEMPERATURES WERE FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS. DEWPOINTS WERE AROUND 70...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES WELL INTO
THE 90S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S BUT EVEN
HERE...HEAT INDICES WERE AROUND 90.

THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION WORKS INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN
BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TIMING INDICATED
IN MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND 21Z-22Z AT KGFL AND
KALB...22Z-23Z AT KPSF AND 23Z-24Z AT KPOU. SOME LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER INTERSECTION
NEAR THE KALB AIRPORT COULD SPARK A LOCALIZED SHOWER OR STORM BEFORE
22Z BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY.  WILL AMEND ONCE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND CAN BE TIMED MORE PRECISELY... BUT INDICATED MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN BRIEF BURSTS AND AGAIN WILL AMEND IF THESE CONDITIONS
LOOK IMMINENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE GUSTY
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 231849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
233 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 1000 PM. INSTABILITY
HAS INCREASED TO OVER 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...AND THE
0-6KM BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 30KTS OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE MODEST...GENERALLY 5.5-6 KM/C.

AT THE VERY LEAST...STRONG INSTABILITY...A REDUCTION IN THE MID
LEVEL CAP (MID LEVEL COOLING)...WILL PRODUCE PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS EASILY CAPABLE OF REACHING "SEVERE" LIMITS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 58 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OR
LARGE HAIL AN INCH OR MORE. THE THREAT IS HIGHER FOR STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS.

THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED LINES OF
BOWING SEGMENTS. EITHER WAY...WE HAVE THE WATCH OUT.

TEMPERATURES WERE FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS. DEWPOINTS WERE AROUND 70...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES WELL INTO
THE 90S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S BUT EVEN
HERE...HEAT INDICES WERE AROUND 90.

THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION WORKS INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN
BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TIMING INDICATED
IN MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND 21Z-22Z AT KGFL AND
KALB...22Z-23Z AT KPSF AND 23Z-24Z AT KPOU. SOME LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER INTERSECTION
NEAR THE KALB AIRPORT COULD SPARK A LOCALIZED SHOWER OR STORM BEFORE
22Z BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY.  WILL AMEND ONCE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND CAN BE TIMED MORE PRECISELY... BUT INDICATED MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN BRIEF BURSTS AND AGAIN WILL AMEND IF THESE CONDITIONS
LOOK IMMINENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE GUSTY
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KBTV 231749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
149 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF
THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD INTO VERMONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 139 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST VERMONT
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS LINE HAS BEEN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
STILL POSSIBLE. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES
MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY TRENDS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AND IS BRIDGED ALOFT BY CYCLONIC FLOW
WITHIN MEAN ERN CONUS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH. WILL STILL ADVERTISE
JUST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH
INTO THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIMITED WITH SUCH DRY LOWER AND MID LEVELS AND THE LARGER VALLEYS
SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD RANGING
THROUGH THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY
SEASONABLY COOL FROM 45 TO 55 ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL
SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN
WESTWARD RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS
CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS
LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN
THE EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS
TO BE A WASHOUT ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING
DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD
BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...HAVE TIMED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO GROUPS...2-3 HRS
AT A TIME. ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED THREAT OF HAIL. SOUTH WINDS 10-12 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS LOOK TO
DROP OFF SOME THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT POST-
FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES STILL SUGGEST LOWER
CEILINGS TO LINGER WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF GREATER
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...THEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN
FOG 06-12Z FOR MPV AND SLK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1131 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP AT THIS TIME SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAINLY NORTH OF A PLATTSBURGH-SAINT
ALBANS LINE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET EXPECTED. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS
LIGHTNING. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
MARINE...WGH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
149 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF
THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD INTO VERMONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 139 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST VERMONT
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS LINE HAS BEEN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
STILL POSSIBLE. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES
MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY TRENDS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AND IS BRIDGED ALOFT BY CYCLONIC FLOW
WITHIN MEAN ERN CONUS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH. WILL STILL ADVERTISE
JUST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH
INTO THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIMITED WITH SUCH DRY LOWER AND MID LEVELS AND THE LARGER VALLEYS
SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD RANGING
THROUGH THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY
SEASONABLY COOL FROM 45 TO 55 ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL
SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN
WESTWARD RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS
CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS
LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN
THE EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS
TO BE A WASHOUT ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING
DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD
BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...HAVE TIMED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO GROUPS...2-3 HRS
AT A TIME. ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED THREAT OF HAIL. SOUTH WINDS 10-12 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS LOOK TO
DROP OFF SOME THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT POST-
FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES STILL SUGGEST LOWER
CEILINGS TO LINGER WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF GREATER
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...THEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN
FOG 06-12Z FOR MPV AND SLK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1131 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP AT THIS TIME SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAINLY NORTH OF A PLATTSBURGH-SAINT
ALBANS LINE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET EXPECTED. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS
LIGHTNING. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
MARINE...WGH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
149 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF
THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD INTO VERMONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 139 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST VERMONT
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS LINE HAS BEEN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
STILL POSSIBLE. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES
MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY TRENDS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AND IS BRIDGED ALOFT BY CYCLONIC FLOW
WITHIN MEAN ERN CONUS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH. WILL STILL ADVERTISE
JUST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH
INTO THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIMITED WITH SUCH DRY LOWER AND MID LEVELS AND THE LARGER VALLEYS
SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD RANGING
THROUGH THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY
SEASONABLY COOL FROM 45 TO 55 ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL
SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN
WESTWARD RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS
CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS
LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN
THE EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS
TO BE A WASHOUT ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING
DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD
BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...HAVE TIMED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO GROUPS...2-3 HRS
AT A TIME. ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED THREAT OF HAIL. SOUTH WINDS 10-12 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS LOOK TO
DROP OFF SOME THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT POST-
FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES STILL SUGGEST LOWER
CEILINGS TO LINGER WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF GREATER
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...THEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN
FOG 06-12Z FOR MPV AND SLK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1131 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP AT THIS TIME SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAINLY NORTH OF A PLATTSBURGH-SAINT
ALBANS LINE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET EXPECTED. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS
LIGHTNING. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
MARINE...WGH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
149 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF
THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD INTO VERMONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 139 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST VERMONT
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS LINE HAS BEEN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
STILL POSSIBLE. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES
MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY TRENDS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AND IS BRIDGED ALOFT BY CYCLONIC FLOW
WITHIN MEAN ERN CONUS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH. WILL STILL ADVERTISE
JUST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH
INTO THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIMITED WITH SUCH DRY LOWER AND MID LEVELS AND THE LARGER VALLEYS
SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD RANGING
THROUGH THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY
SEASONABLY COOL FROM 45 TO 55 ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL
SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN
WESTWARD RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS
CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS
LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN
THE EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS
TO BE A WASHOUT ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING
DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD
BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...HAVE TIMED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO GROUPS...2-3 HRS
AT A TIME. ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED THREAT OF HAIL. SOUTH WINDS 10-12 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS LOOK TO
DROP OFF SOME THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT POST-
FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES STILL SUGGEST LOWER
CEILINGS TO LINGER WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF GREATER
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...THEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN
FOG 06-12Z FOR MPV AND SLK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1131 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP AT THIS TIME SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAINLY NORTH OF A PLATTSBURGH-SAINT
ALBANS LINE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET EXPECTED. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS
LIGHTNING. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
MARINE...WGH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
140 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
INTO VERMONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEHIND
THE FRONT DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 139 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST VERMONT
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS LINE HAS BEEN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO STILL
POSSIBLE. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY TRENDS
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD AND IS BRIDGED ALOFT BY CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN MEAN ERN
CONUS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH. WILL STILL ADVERTISE JUST AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND WASHES
OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH SUCH DRY LOWER
AND MID LEVELS AND THE LARGER VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY.
HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD RANGING THROUGH THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY SEASONABLY COOL FROM 45 TO 55 ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL
SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS CYCLONIC FLOW
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO BE
A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN THE
EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS TO BE A WASHOUT ON
ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING
DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD
BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH LIKELY VFR MOST OF THE TIME...AN
ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. ALREADY SEEING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MSS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND HAVE INDICATED VCTS WITH TEMPO -TSRA. VCSH WITH TEMPO -TSRA AT
SLK PBG AND BTV 14-16Z BUT HAVE HELD OFF MENTION OF TSRA AT RUT
AND MPV WITH THREAT AT THOSE SITES LIKELY AT/AROUND 18Z. ANY
THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN
WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LLVL TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED
THREAT OF HAIL. SOUTH WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS LOOK TO DROP OFF SOME WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT POST- FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES STILL SUGGEST LOWER CEILINGS TO LINGER WELL AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF GREATER CLEARING CAN OCCUR...THEN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG 06-12Z FOR MPV AND SLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1131 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP AT THIS TIME SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAINLY NORTH OF A PLATTSBURGH-SAINT
ALBANS LINE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET EXPECTED. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS
LIGHTNING. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...WGH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
140 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
INTO VERMONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEHIND
THE FRONT DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 139 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST VERMONT
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS LINE HAS BEEN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO STILL
POSSIBLE. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY TRENDS
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD AND IS BRIDGED ALOFT BY CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN MEAN ERN
CONUS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH. WILL STILL ADVERTISE JUST AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND WASHES
OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH SUCH DRY LOWER
AND MID LEVELS AND THE LARGER VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY.
HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD RANGING THROUGH THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY SEASONABLY COOL FROM 45 TO 55 ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL
SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS CYCLONIC FLOW
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO BE
A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN THE
EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS TO BE A WASHOUT ON
ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING
DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD
BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH LIKELY VFR MOST OF THE TIME...AN
ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. ALREADY SEEING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MSS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND HAVE INDICATED VCTS WITH TEMPO -TSRA. VCSH WITH TEMPO -TSRA AT
SLK PBG AND BTV 14-16Z BUT HAVE HELD OFF MENTION OF TSRA AT RUT
AND MPV WITH THREAT AT THOSE SITES LIKELY AT/AROUND 18Z. ANY
THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN
WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LLVL TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED
THREAT OF HAIL. SOUTH WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS LOOK TO DROP OFF SOME WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT POST- FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES STILL SUGGEST LOWER CEILINGS TO LINGER WELL AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF GREATER CLEARING CAN OCCUR...THEN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG 06-12Z FOR MPV AND SLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1131 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP AT THIS TIME SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAINLY NORTH OF A PLATTSBURGH-SAINT
ALBANS LINE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET EXPECTED. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS
LIGHTNING. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...WGH







000
FXUS61 KALY 231724
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...RADARS INDICATED A FEW CELLS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE COLD FRONT
WAS WORKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH PERHAPS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY INTO THE MID 80S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY SO
FOR THIS UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED SOME OF THESE UP SEVERAL
DEGREES...WHICH WOULD MEAN THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD APPROACH OR
EVEN ECLIPSE 90 DEGREES.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...BUMPED TEMPERATURES UPWARD...RE-TOOLED HOURLY
GRIDS BUT LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONE.

AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM...WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE CAPPED AT MIDLEVELS HERE IN
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT AGAIN...UPSTREAM...THE CAP
IS MUCH LESS.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG...BUT ENOUGH SO THAT
THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN NY NOW...BUT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN NY...AS SHEAR
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONGER ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS.

IT COULD BE A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE AN
STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED ACTIVITY IN OUR REGION SHOULD
BLOSSOM BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM.

MORE ANALYSIS OF GUIDANCE WAS DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD WHICH
IS BELOW...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH HEAT
INDICES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EXCEPT COOLER ACROSS THE ADRIONDACKS WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW 80. A SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15
MPH WILL DO LITTLE TO STIFLE THE HEAT. HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO COOL US DOWN AFTER 400 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TIMING INDICATED
IN MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND 21Z-22Z AT KGFL AND
KALB...22Z-23Z AT KPSF AND 23Z-24Z AT KPOU. SOME LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER INTERSECTION
NEAR THE KALB AIRPORT COULD SPARK A LOCALIZED SHOWER OR STORM BEFORE
22Z BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY.  WILL AMEND ONCE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND CAN BE TIMED MORE PRECISELY... BUT INDICATED MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN BRIEF BURSTS AND AGAIN WILL AMEND IF THESE CONDITIONS
LOOK IMMINENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE GUSTY
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM













000
FXUS61 KALY 231724
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...RADARS INDICATED A FEW CELLS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE COLD FRONT
WAS WORKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH PERHAPS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY INTO THE MID 80S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY SO
FOR THIS UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED SOME OF THESE UP SEVERAL
DEGREES...WHICH WOULD MEAN THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD APPROACH OR
EVEN ECLIPSE 90 DEGREES.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...BUMPED TEMPERATURES UPWARD...RE-TOOLED HOURLY
GRIDS BUT LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONE.

AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM...WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE CAPPED AT MIDLEVELS HERE IN
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT AGAIN...UPSTREAM...THE CAP
IS MUCH LESS.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG...BUT ENOUGH SO THAT
THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN NY NOW...BUT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN NY...AS SHEAR
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONGER ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS.

IT COULD BE A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE AN
STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED ACTIVITY IN OUR REGION SHOULD
BLOSSOM BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM.

MORE ANALYSIS OF GUIDANCE WAS DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD WHICH
IS BELOW...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH HEAT
INDICES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EXCEPT COOLER ACROSS THE ADRIONDACKS WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW 80. A SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15
MPH WILL DO LITTLE TO STIFLE THE HEAT. HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO COOL US DOWN AFTER 400 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TIMING INDICATED
IN MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND 21Z-22Z AT KGFL AND
KALB...22Z-23Z AT KPSF AND 23Z-24Z AT KPOU. SOME LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER INTERSECTION
NEAR THE KALB AIRPORT COULD SPARK A LOCALIZED SHOWER OR STORM BEFORE
22Z BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY.  WILL AMEND ONCE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND CAN BE TIMED MORE PRECISELY... BUT INDICATED MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN BRIEF BURSTS AND AGAIN WILL AMEND IF THESE CONDITIONS
LOOK IMMINENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE GUSTY
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM












000
FXUS61 KALY 231634
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...RADARS INDICATED A FEW CELLS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE COLD FRONT
WAS WORKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH PERHAPS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY INTO THE MID 80S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY SO
FOR THIS UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED SOME OF THESE UP SEVERAL
DEGREES...WHICH WOULD MEAN THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD APPROACH OR
EVEN ECLIPSE 90 DEGREES.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...BUMPED TEMPERATURES UPWARD...RE-TOOLED HOURLY
GRIDS BUT LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONE.

AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM...WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE CAPPED AT MIDLEVELS HERE IN
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT AGAIN...UPSTREAM...THE CAP
IS MUCH LESS.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG...BUT ENOUGH SO THAT
THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN NY NOW...BUT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN NY...AS SHEAR
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONGER ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS.

IT COULD BE A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE AN
STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED ACTIVITY IN OUR REGION SHOULD
BLOSSOM BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM.

MORE ANALYSIS OF GUIDANCE WAS DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD WHICH
IS BELOW...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH HEAT
INDICES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EXCEPT COOLER ACROSS THE ADRIONDACKS WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW 80. A SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15
MPH WILL DO LITTLE TO STIFLE THE HEAT. HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO COOL US DOWN AFTER 400 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS AT KPSF FROM 12Z-14Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE
NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS...BORDERING ON IFR...TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

WE WILL START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY
SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 231634
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...RADARS INDICATED A FEW CELLS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE COLD FRONT
WAS WORKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH PERHAPS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY INTO THE MID 80S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY SO
FOR THIS UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED SOME OF THESE UP SEVERAL
DEGREES...WHICH WOULD MEAN THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD APPROACH OR
EVEN ECLIPSE 90 DEGREES.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...BUMPED TEMPERATURES UPWARD...RE-TOOLED HOURLY
GRIDS BUT LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONE.

AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM...WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE CAPPED AT MIDLEVELS HERE IN
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT AGAIN...UPSTREAM...THE CAP
IS MUCH LESS.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG...BUT ENOUGH SO THAT
THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN NY NOW...BUT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN NY...AS SHEAR
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONGER ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS.

IT COULD BE A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE AN
STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED ACTIVITY IN OUR REGION SHOULD
BLOSSOM BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM.

MORE ANALYSIS OF GUIDANCE WAS DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD WHICH
IS BELOW...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH HEAT
INDICES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EXCEPT COOLER ACROSS THE ADRIONDACKS WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW 80. A SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15
MPH WILL DO LITTLE TO STIFLE THE HEAT. HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO COOL US DOWN AFTER 400 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS AT KPSF FROM 12Z-14Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE
NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS...BORDERING ON IFR...TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

WE WILL START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY
SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 231634
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...RADARS INDICATED A FEW CELLS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE COLD FRONT
WAS WORKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH PERHAPS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY INTO THE MID 80S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY SO
FOR THIS UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED SOME OF THESE UP SEVERAL
DEGREES...WHICH WOULD MEAN THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD APPROACH OR
EVEN ECLIPSE 90 DEGREES.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...BUMPED TEMPERATURES UPWARD...RE-TOOLED HOURLY
GRIDS BUT LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONE.

AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM...WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE CAPPED AT MIDLEVELS HERE IN
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT AGAIN...UPSTREAM...THE CAP
IS MUCH LESS.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG...BUT ENOUGH SO THAT
THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN NY NOW...BUT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN NY...AS SHEAR
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONGER ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS.

IT COULD BE A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE AN
STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED ACTIVITY IN OUR REGION SHOULD
BLOSSOM BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM.

MORE ANALYSIS OF GUIDANCE WAS DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD WHICH
IS BELOW...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH HEAT
INDICES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EXCEPT COOLER ACROSS THE ADRIONDACKS WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW 80. A SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15
MPH WILL DO LITTLE TO STIFLE THE HEAT. HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO COOL US DOWN AFTER 400 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS AT KPSF FROM 12Z-14Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE
NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS...BORDERING ON IFR...TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

WE WILL START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY
SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 231634
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...RADARS INDICATED A FEW CELLS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE COLD FRONT
WAS WORKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH PERHAPS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY INTO THE MID 80S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY SO
FOR THIS UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED SOME OF THESE UP SEVERAL
DEGREES...WHICH WOULD MEAN THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD APPROACH OR
EVEN ECLIPSE 90 DEGREES.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...BUMPED TEMPERATURES UPWARD...RE-TOOLED HOURLY
GRIDS BUT LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONE.

AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM...WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE CAPPED AT MIDLEVELS HERE IN
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT AGAIN...UPSTREAM...THE CAP
IS MUCH LESS.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG...BUT ENOUGH SO THAT
THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN NY NOW...BUT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN NY...AS SHEAR
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONGER ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS.

IT COULD BE A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE AN
STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED ACTIVITY IN OUR REGION SHOULD
BLOSSOM BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM.

MORE ANALYSIS OF GUIDANCE WAS DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD WHICH
IS BELOW...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH HEAT
INDICES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EXCEPT COOLER ACROSS THE ADRIONDACKS WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW 80. A SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15
MPH WILL DO LITTLE TO STIFLE THE HEAT. HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO COOL US DOWN AFTER 400 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS AT KPSF FROM 12Z-14Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE
NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS...BORDERING ON IFR...TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

WE WILL START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY
SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KBTV 231532
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1132 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
INTO VERMONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEHIND
THE FRONT DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1131 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND EXTENDING
INTO NORTHWEST VERMONT AT THIS TIME AND JUST NORTH OF THE VERMONT-
QUEBEC BORDER. PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY REMAINS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
MASSENA NEW YORK HAD 1.26 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM
THIS MORNING. THIS STILL REMAINS BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR
THERE WHICH IS 2.7 INCHES IN 3 HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 732 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY/T/TD DATASETS TO
NUDGE TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AS OF 700 AM. WATCHING
STORMS ALREADY ENTERING OUR SLV COUNTIES WHERE RECENT TOPS TO 45
KFT OBSERVED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IN
STORE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH NY/NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DECENT COMBINATION OF PBL
INSTABILITY AND 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY SO IDEA OF SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME LOCALLY
STRONG TO SVR STILL LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT HOWEVER...SUCH AS LACK OF A DEFINITIVE SHORTWAVE AND
RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO WIDESPREAD SVR NOT AS LIKELY.
GIVEN TIMING OF FRONTAL ZONE FEEL BEST THREAT OF STRONGER
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM OUR EASTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES INTO
VERMONT...ESP CENTRAL/ERN VT WHERE DECENT SFC HEATING THROUGH
MIDDAY SHOULD PUSH CAPE VALUES INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW PRE- FRONTAL FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE MODE
MORE LINEAR IN NATURE WITH A SHORT QLCS FEATURE POSSIBLY EVOLVING
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NERN VT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND TO BE THE
PRMIARY CONCERN GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGER HAIL WITH MOST INTENSE CORES AS
WELL...BUT WITH WBZ VALUES QUITE HIGH (ABV 11 KFT) WILL DOWNPLAY
THIS FOR NOW. ALSO SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 2
INCHES IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG IN THE DEEP WSW
FLOW. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN
VERMONT (80S) AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NRN NY (70S) WITH EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND CLOUDS.

BY THIS EVENING THE SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS
EASTWARD...CLEARING OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS TREND NORTHWESTERLY IN ALL AREAS. THUS LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS EAST SHOULD EXIT BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT A TAD SOONER.
HOWEVER...WILL OPT TO DELAY CLEARING TREND SOMEWHAT AS RECENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ACROSS SC CANADA SHOWING PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS NOW OCCURRING. LOWS QUITE
PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY TRENDS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AND IS BRIDGED ALOFT BY CYCLONIC FLOW
WITHIN MEAN ERN CONUS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH. WILL STILL ADVERTISE
JUST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
WITH SUCH DRY LOWER AND MID LEVELS AND THE LARGER VALLEYS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD RANGING THROUGH THE
70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY SEASONABLY COOL
FROM 45 TO 55 ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL
SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS CYCLONIC FLOW
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO BE
A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN THE
EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS TO BE A WASHOUT ON
ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING
DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD
BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH LIKELY VFR MOST OF THE TIME...AN
ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. ALREADY SEEING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MSS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND HAVE INDICATED VCTS WITH TEMPO -TSRA. VCSH WITH TEMPO -TSRA AT
SLK PBG AND BTV 14-16Z BUT HAVE HELD OFF MENTION OF TSRA AT RUT
AND MPV WITH THREAT AT THOSE SITES LIKELY AT/AROUND 18Z. ANY
THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN
WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LLVL TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED
THREAT OF HAIL. SOUTH WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS LOOK TO DROP OFF SOME WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT POST- FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES STILL SUGGEST LOWER CEILINGS TO LINGER WELL AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF GREATER CLEARING CAN OCCUR...THEN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG 06-12Z FOR MPV AND SLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1131 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP AT THIS TIME SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAINLY NORTH OF A PLATTSBURGH-SAINT
ALBANS LINE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET EXPECTED. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS
LIGHTNING. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...WGH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 231532
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1132 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
INTO VERMONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEHIND
THE FRONT DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1131 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND EXTENDING
INTO NORTHWEST VERMONT AT THIS TIME AND JUST NORTH OF THE VERMONT-
QUEBEC BORDER. PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY REMAINS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
MASSENA NEW YORK HAD 1.26 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM
THIS MORNING. THIS STILL REMAINS BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR
THERE WHICH IS 2.7 INCHES IN 3 HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 732 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY/T/TD DATASETS TO
NUDGE TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AS OF 700 AM. WATCHING
STORMS ALREADY ENTERING OUR SLV COUNTIES WHERE RECENT TOPS TO 45
KFT OBSERVED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IN
STORE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH NY/NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DECENT COMBINATION OF PBL
INSTABILITY AND 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY SO IDEA OF SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME LOCALLY
STRONG TO SVR STILL LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT HOWEVER...SUCH AS LACK OF A DEFINITIVE SHORTWAVE AND
RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO WIDESPREAD SVR NOT AS LIKELY.
GIVEN TIMING OF FRONTAL ZONE FEEL BEST THREAT OF STRONGER
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM OUR EASTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES INTO
VERMONT...ESP CENTRAL/ERN VT WHERE DECENT SFC HEATING THROUGH
MIDDAY SHOULD PUSH CAPE VALUES INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW PRE- FRONTAL FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE MODE
MORE LINEAR IN NATURE WITH A SHORT QLCS FEATURE POSSIBLY EVOLVING
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NERN VT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND TO BE THE
PRMIARY CONCERN GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGER HAIL WITH MOST INTENSE CORES AS
WELL...BUT WITH WBZ VALUES QUITE HIGH (ABV 11 KFT) WILL DOWNPLAY
THIS FOR NOW. ALSO SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 2
INCHES IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG IN THE DEEP WSW
FLOW. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN
VERMONT (80S) AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NRN NY (70S) WITH EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND CLOUDS.

BY THIS EVENING THE SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS
EASTWARD...CLEARING OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS TREND NORTHWESTERLY IN ALL AREAS. THUS LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS EAST SHOULD EXIT BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT A TAD SOONER.
HOWEVER...WILL OPT TO DELAY CLEARING TREND SOMEWHAT AS RECENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ACROSS SC CANADA SHOWING PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS NOW OCCURRING. LOWS QUITE
PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY TRENDS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AND IS BRIDGED ALOFT BY CYCLONIC FLOW
WITHIN MEAN ERN CONUS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH. WILL STILL ADVERTISE
JUST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
WITH SUCH DRY LOWER AND MID LEVELS AND THE LARGER VALLEYS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD RANGING THROUGH THE
70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY SEASONABLY COOL
FROM 45 TO 55 ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL
SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS CYCLONIC FLOW
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO BE
A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN THE
EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS TO BE A WASHOUT ON
ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING
DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD
BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH LIKELY VFR MOST OF THE TIME...AN
ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. ALREADY SEEING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MSS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND HAVE INDICATED VCTS WITH TEMPO -TSRA. VCSH WITH TEMPO -TSRA AT
SLK PBG AND BTV 14-16Z BUT HAVE HELD OFF MENTION OF TSRA AT RUT
AND MPV WITH THREAT AT THOSE SITES LIKELY AT/AROUND 18Z. ANY
THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN
WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LLVL TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED
THREAT OF HAIL. SOUTH WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS LOOK TO DROP OFF SOME WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT POST- FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES STILL SUGGEST LOWER CEILINGS TO LINGER WELL AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF GREATER CLEARING CAN OCCUR...THEN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG 06-12Z FOR MPV AND SLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1131 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP AT THIS TIME SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAINLY NORTH OF A PLATTSBURGH-SAINT
ALBANS LINE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET EXPECTED. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS
LIGHTNING. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...WGH






000
FXUS61 KALY 231431
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1031 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM...WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE CAPPED AT MIDLEVELS HERE IN
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT AGAIN...UPSTREAM...THE CAP
IS MUCH LESS.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG...BUT ENOUGH SO THAT
THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN NY NOW...BUT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN NY...AS SHEAR
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONGER ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY AND DEW POINT BOUNDARY IS RIGHT
ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT IS QUITE TIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL
FOR ENHANCED MESOSCALE FORCING WITHIN THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM
INSTABILITY. IT COULD BE A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH REGARD
TO COVERAGE AN STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. WE WILL KNOW MORE SPECIFICS ONCE ALL THE
NEW GUIDANCE IS IN...AND TRENDS IN DATA ARE CLEARER INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

MORE ANALYSIS OF GUIDANCE WAS DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD WHICH
IS BELOW...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MID-UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THE HEAT INDEX AROUND 90F...AROUND 80F FOR THE
TERRAIN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE FROM AROUND 50F
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND UPPER 60S FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS AT KPSF FROM 12Z-14Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE
NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS...BORDERING ON IFR...TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

WE WILL START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY
SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 231431
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1031 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM...WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE CAPPED AT MIDLEVELS HERE IN
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT AGAIN...UPSTREAM...THE CAP
IS MUCH LESS.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG...BUT ENOUGH SO THAT
THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN NY NOW...BUT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN NY...AS SHEAR
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONGER ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY AND DEW POINT BOUNDARY IS RIGHT
ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT IS QUITE TIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL
FOR ENHANCED MESOSCALE FORCING WITHIN THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM
INSTABILITY. IT COULD BE A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH REGARD
TO COVERAGE AN STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. WE WILL KNOW MORE SPECIFICS ONCE ALL THE
NEW GUIDANCE IS IN...AND TRENDS IN DATA ARE CLEARER INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

MORE ANALYSIS OF GUIDANCE WAS DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD WHICH
IS BELOW...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MID-UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THE HEAT INDEX AROUND 90F...AROUND 80F FOR THE
TERRAIN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE FROM AROUND 50F
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND UPPER 60S FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS AT KPSF FROM 12Z-14Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE
NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS...BORDERING ON IFR...TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

WE WILL START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY
SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
INTO VERMONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEHIND
THE FRONT DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 732 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY/T/TD DATASETS TO NUDGE TOWARD
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AS OF 700 AM. WATCHING STORMS ALREADY
ENTERING OUR SLV COUNTIES WHERE RECENT TOPS TO 45 KFT OBSERVED.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IN
STORE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH NY/NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DECENT COMBINATION OF PBL
INSTABILITY AND 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY SO IDEA OF SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME LOCALLY
STRONG TO SVR STILL LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT HOWEVER...SUCH AS LACK OF A DEFINITIVE SHORTWAVE AND
RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO WIDESPREAD SVR NOT AS LIKELY.
GIVEN TIMING OF FRONTAL ZONE FEEL BEST THREAT OF STRONGER
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM OUR EASTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES INTO
VERMONT...ESP CENTRAL/ERN VT WHERE DECENT SFC HEATING THROUGH
MIDDAY SHOULD PUSH CAPE VALUES INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW PRE- FRONTAL FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE MODE
MORE LINEAR IN NATURE WITH A SHORT QLCS FEATURE POSSIBLY EVOLVING
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NERN VT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND TO BE THE
PRMIARY CONCERN GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGER HAIL WITH MOST INTENSE CORES AS
WELL...BUT WITH WBZ VALUES QUITE HIGH (ABV 11 KFT) WILL DOWNPLAY
THIS FOR NOW. ALSO SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 2
INCHES IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG IN THE DEEP WSW
FLOW. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN
VERMONT (80S) AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NRN NY (70S) WITH EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND CLOUDS.

BY THIS EVENING THE SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS
EASTWARD...CLEARING OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS TREND NORTHWESTERLY IN ALL AREAS. THUS LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS EAST SHOULD EXIT BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT A TAD SOONER.
HOWEVER...WILL OPT TO DELAY CLEARING TREND SOMEWHAT AS RECENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ACROSS SC CANADA SHOWING PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS NOW OCCURRING. LOWS QUITE
PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY TRENDS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AND IS BRIDGED ALOFT BY CYCLONIC FLOW
WITHIN MEAN ERN CONUS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH. WILL STILL ADVERTISE
JUST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
WITH SUCH DRY LOWER AND MID LEVELS AND THE LARGER VALLEYS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD RANGING THROUGH THE
70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY SEASONABLY COOL
FROM 45 TO 55 ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL
SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS CYCLONIC FLOW
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO BE
A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN THE
EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS TO BE A WASHOUT ON
ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING
DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD
BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH LIKELY VFR MOST OF THE TIME...AN
ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. ALREADY SEEING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MSS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND HAVE INDICATED VCTS WITH TEMPO -TSRA. VCSH WITH TEMPO -TSRA AT
SLK PBG AND BTV 14-16Z BUT HAVE HELD OFF MENTION OF TSRA AT RUT
AND MPV WITH THREAT AT THOSE SITES LIKELY AT/AROUND 18Z. ANY
THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN
WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LLVL TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED
THREAT OF HAIL. SOUTH WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS LOOK TO DROP OFF SOME WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT POST- FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES STILL SUGGEST LOWER CEILINGS TO LINGER WELL AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF GREATER CLEARING CAN OCCUR...THEN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG 06-12Z FOR MPV AND SLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MARINERS AND OTHERS WITH
RECREATIONAL PLANS ON THE LAKE TODAY SHOULD TAKE NOTE THAT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. PLEASE ENSURE THAT YOU KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTIONS SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN. THE STORMS
SHOULD END BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 231132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
INTO VERMONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEHIND
THE FRONT DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 732 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY/T/TD DATASETS TO NUDGE TOWARD
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AS OF 700 AM. WATCHING STORMS ALREADY
ENTERING OUR SLV COUNTIES WHERE RECENT TOPS TO 45 KFT OBSERVED.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IN
STORE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH NY/NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DECENT COMBINATION OF PBL
INSTABILITY AND 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY SO IDEA OF SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME LOCALLY
STRONG TO SVR STILL LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT HOWEVER...SUCH AS LACK OF A DEFINITIVE SHORTWAVE AND
RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO WIDESPREAD SVR NOT AS LIKELY.
GIVEN TIMING OF FRONTAL ZONE FEEL BEST THREAT OF STRONGER
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM OUR EASTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES INTO
VERMONT...ESP CENTRAL/ERN VT WHERE DECENT SFC HEATING THROUGH
MIDDAY SHOULD PUSH CAPE VALUES INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW PRE- FRONTAL FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE MODE
MORE LINEAR IN NATURE WITH A SHORT QLCS FEATURE POSSIBLY EVOLVING
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NERN VT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND TO BE THE
PRMIARY CONCERN GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGER HAIL WITH MOST INTENSE CORES AS
WELL...BUT WITH WBZ VALUES QUITE HIGH (ABV 11 KFT) WILL DOWNPLAY
THIS FOR NOW. ALSO SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 2
INCHES IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG IN THE DEEP WSW
FLOW. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN
VERMONT (80S) AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NRN NY (70S) WITH EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND CLOUDS.

BY THIS EVENING THE SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS
EASTWARD...CLEARING OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS TREND NORTHWESTERLY IN ALL AREAS. THUS LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS EAST SHOULD EXIT BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT A TAD SOONER.
HOWEVER...WILL OPT TO DELAY CLEARING TREND SOMEWHAT AS RECENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ACROSS SC CANADA SHOWING PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS NOW OCCURRING. LOWS QUITE
PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY TRENDS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AND IS BRIDGED ALOFT BY CYCLONIC FLOW
WITHIN MEAN ERN CONUS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH. WILL STILL ADVERTISE
JUST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
WITH SUCH DRY LOWER AND MID LEVELS AND THE LARGER VALLEYS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD RANGING THROUGH THE
70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY SEASONABLY COOL
FROM 45 TO 55 ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL
SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS CYCLONIC FLOW
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO BE
A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN THE
EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS TO BE A WASHOUT ON
ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING
DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD
BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH LIKELY VFR MOST OF THE TIME...AN
ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. ALREADY SEEING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MSS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND HAVE INDICATED VCTS WITH TEMPO -TSRA. VCSH WITH TEMPO -TSRA AT
SLK PBG AND BTV 14-16Z BUT HAVE HELD OFF MENTION OF TSRA AT RUT
AND MPV WITH THREAT AT THOSE SITES LIKELY AT/AROUND 18Z. ANY
THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN
WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LLVL TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED
THREAT OF HAIL. SOUTH WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS LOOK TO DROP OFF SOME WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT POST- FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES STILL SUGGEST LOWER CEILINGS TO LINGER WELL AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF GREATER CLEARING CAN OCCUR...THEN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG 06-12Z FOR MPV AND SLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MARINERS AND OTHERS WITH
RECREATIONAL PLANS ON THE LAKE TODAY SHOULD TAKE NOTE THAT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. PLEASE ENSURE THAT YOU KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTIONS SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN. THE STORMS
SHOULD END BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...JMG






000
FXUS61 KBTV 231126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
INTO VERMONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEHIND
THE FRONT DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH NY/NEW ENGLAND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DECENT COMBINATION OF PBL
INSTABILITY AND 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY SO IDEA OF SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME LOCALLY
STRONG TO SVR STILL LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT HOWEVER...SUCH AS LACK OF A DEFINITIVE SHORTWAVE AND
RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO WIDESPREAD SVR NOT AS LIKELY.
GIVEN TIMING OF FRONTAL ZONE FEEL BEST THREAT OF STRONGER
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM OUR EASTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES INTO
VERMONT...ESP CENTRAL/ERN VT WHERE DECENT SFC HEATING THROUGH
MIDDAY SHOULD PUSH CAPE VALUES INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW PRE-FRONTAL FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE MODE
MORE LINEAR IN NATURE WITH A SHORT QLCS FEATURE POSSIBLY EVOLVING
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NERN VT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND TO BE THE
PRMIARY CONCERN GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGER HAIL WITH MOST INTENSE CORES AS
WELL...BUT WITH WBZ VALUES QUITE HIGH (ABV 11 KFT) WILL DOWNPLAY
THIS FOR NOW. ALSO SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 2
INCHES IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG IN THE DEEP WSW
FLOW. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN
VERMONT (80S) AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NRN NY (70S) WITH EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND CLOUDS.

BY THIS EVENING THE SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS
EASTWARD...CLEARING OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS TREND NORTHWESTERLY IN ALL AREAS. THUS LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS EAST SHOULD EXIT BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT A TAD SOONER.
HOWEVER...WILL OPT TO DELAY CLEARING TREND SOMEWHAT AS RECENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ACROSS SC CANADA SHOWING PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS NOW OCCURRING. LOWS QUITE
PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY TRENDS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AND IS BRIDGED ALOFT BY CYCLONIC FLOW
WITHIN MEAN ERN CONUS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH. WILL STILL ADVERTISE
JUST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
WITH SUCH DRY LOWER AND MID LEVELS AND THE LARGER VALLEYS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD RANGING THROUGH THE
70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY SEASONABLY COOL
FROM 45 TO 55 ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL
SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS CYCLONIC FLOW
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO BE
A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN THE
EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS TO BE A WASHOUT ON
ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING
DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD
BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH LIKELY VFR MOST OF THE TIME...AN
ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. ALREADY SEEING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MSS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND HAVE INDICATED VCTS WITH TEMPO -TSRA. VCSH WITH TEMPO -TSRA AT
SLK PBG AND BTV 14-16Z BUT HAVE HELD OFF MENTION OF TSRA AT RUT
AND MPV WITH THREAT AT THOSE SITES LIKELY AT/AROUND 18Z. ANY
THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN
WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LLVL TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED
THREAT OF HAIL. SOUTH WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS LOOK TO DROP OFF SOME WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT POST- FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES STILL SUGGEST LOWER CEILINGS TO LINGER WELL AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF GREATER CLEARING CAN OCCUR...THEN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG 06-12Z FOR MPV AND SLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MARINERS AND OTHERS WITH
RECREATIONAL PLANS ON THE LAKE TODAY SHOULD TAKE NOTE THAT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. PLEASE ENSURE THAT YOU KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTIONS SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN. THE STORMS
SHOULD END BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...JMG








000
FXUS61 KALY 231126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.  LINE OF
CONVECTION UPSTREAM HAS WEAKENED.  HOWEVER...AS SEEN IN THE
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP TOWARD NOON AND
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.  SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY COVERAGE
A BIT.  REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MID-UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THE HEAT INDEX AROUND 90F...AROUND 80F FOR THE
TERRAIN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE FROM AROUND 50F
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND UPPER 60S FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS AT KPSF FROM 12Z-14Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE
NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS...BORDERING ON IFR...TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

WE WILL START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY
SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY












000
FXUS61 KBTV 231126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
INTO VERMONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEHIND
THE FRONT DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH NY/NEW ENGLAND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DECENT COMBINATION OF PBL
INSTABILITY AND 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY SO IDEA OF SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME LOCALLY
STRONG TO SVR STILL LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT HOWEVER...SUCH AS LACK OF A DEFINITIVE SHORTWAVE AND
RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO WIDESPREAD SVR NOT AS LIKELY.
GIVEN TIMING OF FRONTAL ZONE FEEL BEST THREAT OF STRONGER
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM OUR EASTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES INTO
VERMONT...ESP CENTRAL/ERN VT WHERE DECENT SFC HEATING THROUGH
MIDDAY SHOULD PUSH CAPE VALUES INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW PRE-FRONTAL FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE MODE
MORE LINEAR IN NATURE WITH A SHORT QLCS FEATURE POSSIBLY EVOLVING
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NERN VT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND TO BE THE
PRMIARY CONCERN GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGER HAIL WITH MOST INTENSE CORES AS
WELL...BUT WITH WBZ VALUES QUITE HIGH (ABV 11 KFT) WILL DOWNPLAY
THIS FOR NOW. ALSO SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 2
INCHES IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG IN THE DEEP WSW
FLOW. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN
VERMONT (80S) AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NRN NY (70S) WITH EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND CLOUDS.

BY THIS EVENING THE SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS
EASTWARD...CLEARING OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS TREND NORTHWESTERLY IN ALL AREAS. THUS LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS EAST SHOULD EXIT BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT A TAD SOONER.
HOWEVER...WILL OPT TO DELAY CLEARING TREND SOMEWHAT AS RECENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ACROSS SC CANADA SHOWING PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS NOW OCCURRING. LOWS QUITE
PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY TRENDS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AND IS BRIDGED ALOFT BY CYCLONIC FLOW
WITHIN MEAN ERN CONUS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH. WILL STILL ADVERTISE
JUST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
WITH SUCH DRY LOWER AND MID LEVELS AND THE LARGER VALLEYS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD RANGING THROUGH THE
70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY SEASONABLY COOL
FROM 45 TO 55 ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL
SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS CYCLONIC FLOW
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO BE
A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN THE
EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS TO BE A WASHOUT ON
ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING
DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD
BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH LIKELY VFR MOST OF THE TIME...AN
ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. ALREADY SEEING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MSS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND HAVE INDICATED VCTS WITH TEMPO -TSRA. VCSH WITH TEMPO -TSRA AT
SLK PBG AND BTV 14-16Z BUT HAVE HELD OFF MENTION OF TSRA AT RUT
AND MPV WITH THREAT AT THOSE SITES LIKELY AT/AROUND 18Z. ANY
THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN
WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LLVL TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED
THREAT OF HAIL. SOUTH WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS LOOK TO DROP OFF SOME WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT POST- FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES STILL SUGGEST LOWER CEILINGS TO LINGER WELL AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF GREATER CLEARING CAN OCCUR...THEN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG 06-12Z FOR MPV AND SLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MARINERS AND OTHERS WITH
RECREATIONAL PLANS ON THE LAKE TODAY SHOULD TAKE NOTE THAT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. PLEASE ENSURE THAT YOU KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTIONS SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN. THE STORMS
SHOULD END BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...JMG








000
FXUS61 KALY 231126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.  LINE OF
CONVECTION UPSTREAM HAS WEAKENED.  HOWEVER...AS SEEN IN THE
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP TOWARD NOON AND
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.  SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY COVERAGE
A BIT.  REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MID-UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THE HEAT INDEX AROUND 90F...AROUND 80F FOR THE
TERRAIN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE FROM AROUND 50F
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND UPPER 60S FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS AT KPSF FROM 12Z-14Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE
NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS...BORDERING ON IFR...TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

WE WILL START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY
SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY












000
FXUS61 KBTV 231126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
INTO VERMONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEHIND
THE FRONT DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH NY/NEW ENGLAND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DECENT COMBINATION OF PBL
INSTABILITY AND 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY SO IDEA OF SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME LOCALLY
STRONG TO SVR STILL LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT HOWEVER...SUCH AS LACK OF A DEFINITIVE SHORTWAVE AND
RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO WIDESPREAD SVR NOT AS LIKELY.
GIVEN TIMING OF FRONTAL ZONE FEEL BEST THREAT OF STRONGER
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM OUR EASTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES INTO
VERMONT...ESP CENTRAL/ERN VT WHERE DECENT SFC HEATING THROUGH
MIDDAY SHOULD PUSH CAPE VALUES INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW PRE-FRONTAL FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE MODE
MORE LINEAR IN NATURE WITH A SHORT QLCS FEATURE POSSIBLY EVOLVING
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NERN VT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND TO BE THE
PRMIARY CONCERN GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGER HAIL WITH MOST INTENSE CORES AS
WELL...BUT WITH WBZ VALUES QUITE HIGH (ABV 11 KFT) WILL DOWNPLAY
THIS FOR NOW. ALSO SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 2
INCHES IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG IN THE DEEP WSW
FLOW. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN
VERMONT (80S) AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NRN NY (70S) WITH EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND CLOUDS.

BY THIS EVENING THE SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS
EASTWARD...CLEARING OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS TREND NORTHWESTERLY IN ALL AREAS. THUS LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS EAST SHOULD EXIT BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT A TAD SOONER.
HOWEVER...WILL OPT TO DELAY CLEARING TREND SOMEWHAT AS RECENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ACROSS SC CANADA SHOWING PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS NOW OCCURRING. LOWS QUITE
PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY TRENDS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AND IS BRIDGED ALOFT BY CYCLONIC FLOW
WITHIN MEAN ERN CONUS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH. WILL STILL ADVERTISE
JUST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
WITH SUCH DRY LOWER AND MID LEVELS AND THE LARGER VALLEYS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD RANGING THROUGH THE
70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY SEASONABLY COOL
FROM 45 TO 55 ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL
SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS CYCLONIC FLOW
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO BE
A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN THE
EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS TO BE A WASHOUT ON
ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING
DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD
BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH LIKELY VFR MOST OF THE TIME...AN
ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. ALREADY SEEING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MSS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND HAVE INDICATED VCTS WITH TEMPO -TSRA. VCSH WITH TEMPO -TSRA AT
SLK PBG AND BTV 14-16Z BUT HAVE HELD OFF MENTION OF TSRA AT RUT
AND MPV WITH THREAT AT THOSE SITES LIKELY AT/AROUND 18Z. ANY
THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN
WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LLVL TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED
THREAT OF HAIL. SOUTH WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS LOOK TO DROP OFF SOME WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT POST- FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES STILL SUGGEST LOWER CEILINGS TO LINGER WELL AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF GREATER CLEARING CAN OCCUR...THEN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG 06-12Z FOR MPV AND SLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MARINERS AND OTHERS WITH
RECREATIONAL PLANS ON THE LAKE TODAY SHOULD TAKE NOTE THAT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. PLEASE ENSURE THAT YOU KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTIONS SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN. THE STORMS
SHOULD END BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...JMG







000
FXUS61 KALY 231126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.  LINE OF
CONVECTION UPSTREAM HAS WEAKENED.  HOWEVER...AS SEEN IN THE
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP TOWARD NOON AND
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.  SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY COVERAGE
A BIT.  REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MID-UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THE HEAT INDEX AROUND 90F...AROUND 80F FOR THE
TERRAIN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE FROM AROUND 50F
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND UPPER 60S FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS AT KPSF FROM 12Z-14Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE
NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS...BORDERING ON IFR...TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

WE WILL START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY
SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY











000
FXUS61 KBTV 231126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
INTO VERMONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEHIND
THE FRONT DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH NY/NEW ENGLAND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DECENT COMBINATION OF PBL
INSTABILITY AND 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY SO IDEA OF SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME LOCALLY
STRONG TO SVR STILL LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT HOWEVER...SUCH AS LACK OF A DEFINITIVE SHORTWAVE AND
RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO WIDESPREAD SVR NOT AS LIKELY.
GIVEN TIMING OF FRONTAL ZONE FEEL BEST THREAT OF STRONGER
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM OUR EASTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES INTO
VERMONT...ESP CENTRAL/ERN VT WHERE DECENT SFC HEATING THROUGH
MIDDAY SHOULD PUSH CAPE VALUES INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW PRE-FRONTAL FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE MODE
MORE LINEAR IN NATURE WITH A SHORT QLCS FEATURE POSSIBLY EVOLVING
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NERN VT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND TO BE THE
PRMIARY CONCERN GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGER HAIL WITH MOST INTENSE CORES AS
WELL...BUT WITH WBZ VALUES QUITE HIGH (ABV 11 KFT) WILL DOWNPLAY
THIS FOR NOW. ALSO SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 2
INCHES IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG IN THE DEEP WSW
FLOW. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN
VERMONT (80S) AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NRN NY (70S) WITH EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND CLOUDS.

BY THIS EVENING THE SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS
EASTWARD...CLEARING OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS TREND NORTHWESTERLY IN ALL AREAS. THUS LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS EAST SHOULD EXIT BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT A TAD SOONER.
HOWEVER...WILL OPT TO DELAY CLEARING TREND SOMEWHAT AS RECENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ACROSS SC CANADA SHOWING PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS NOW OCCURRING. LOWS QUITE
PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY TRENDS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AND IS BRIDGED ALOFT BY CYCLONIC FLOW
WITHIN MEAN ERN CONUS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH. WILL STILL ADVERTISE
JUST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
WITH SUCH DRY LOWER AND MID LEVELS AND THE LARGER VALLEYS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD RANGING THROUGH THE
70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY SEASONABLY COOL
FROM 45 TO 55 ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL
SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS CYCLONIC FLOW
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO BE
A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN THE
EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS TO BE A WASHOUT ON
ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING
DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD
BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH LIKELY VFR MOST OF THE TIME...AN
ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. ALREADY SEEING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MSS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND HAVE INDICATED VCTS WITH TEMPO -TSRA. VCSH WITH TEMPO -TSRA AT
SLK PBG AND BTV 14-16Z BUT HAVE HELD OFF MENTION OF TSRA AT RUT
AND MPV WITH THREAT AT THOSE SITES LIKELY AT/AROUND 18Z. ANY
THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN
WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LLVL TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED
THREAT OF HAIL. SOUTH WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS LOOK TO DROP OFF SOME WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT POST- FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES STILL SUGGEST LOWER CEILINGS TO LINGER WELL AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF GREATER CLEARING CAN OCCUR...THEN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG 06-12Z FOR MPV AND SLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MARINERS AND OTHERS WITH
RECREATIONAL PLANS ON THE LAKE TODAY SHOULD TAKE NOTE THAT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. PLEASE ENSURE THAT YOU KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTIONS SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN. THE STORMS
SHOULD END BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...JMG







000
FXUS61 KALY 231126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.  LINE OF
CONVECTION UPSTREAM HAS WEAKENED.  HOWEVER...AS SEEN IN THE
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP TOWARD NOON AND
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.  SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY COVERAGE
A BIT.  REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MID-UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THE HEAT INDEX AROUND 90F...AROUND 80F FOR THE
TERRAIN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE FROM AROUND 50F
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND UPPER 60S FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS AT KPSF FROM 12Z-14Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE
NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS...BORDERING ON IFR...TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

WE WILL START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY
SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY











000
FXUS61 KALY 231032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.  LINE OF
CONVECTION UPSTREAM HAS WEAKENED.  HOWEVER...AS SEEN IN THE
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP TOWARD NOON AND
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.  SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY COVERAGE
A BIT.  REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MID-UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THE HEAT INDEX AROUND 90F...AROUND 80F FOR THE
TERRAIN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE FROM AROUND 50F
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND UPPER 60S FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FOR KGFL WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KGFL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT.
HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY









000
FXUS61 KALY 231032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.  LINE OF
CONVECTION UPSTREAM HAS WEAKENED.  HOWEVER...AS SEEN IN THE
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP TOWARD NOON AND
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.  SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY COVERAGE
A BIT.  REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MID-UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THE HEAT INDEX AROUND 90F...AROUND 80F FOR THE
TERRAIN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE FROM AROUND 50F
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND UPPER 60S FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FOR KGFL WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KGFL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT.
HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY









000
FXUS61 KALY 231032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.  LINE OF
CONVECTION UPSTREAM HAS WEAKENED.  HOWEVER...AS SEEN IN THE
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP TOWARD NOON AND
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.  SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY COVERAGE
A BIT.  REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MID-UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THE HEAT INDEX AROUND 90F...AROUND 80F FOR THE
TERRAIN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE FROM AROUND 50F
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND UPPER 60S FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FOR KGFL WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KGFL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT.
HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY









000
FXUS61 KALY 231032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.  LINE OF
CONVECTION UPSTREAM HAS WEAKENED.  HOWEVER...AS SEEN IN THE
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP TOWARD NOON AND
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.  SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY COVERAGE
A BIT.  REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MID-UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THE HEAT INDEX AROUND 90F...AROUND 80F FOR THE
TERRAIN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE FROM AROUND 50F
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND UPPER 60S FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FOR KGFL WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KGFL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT.
HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY









000
FXUS61 KBTV 230745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
INTO VERMONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEHIND
THE FRONT DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH NY/NEW ENGLAND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DECENT COMBINATION OF PBL
INSTABILITY AND 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY SO IDEA OF SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME LOCALLY
STRONG TO SVR STILL LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT HOWEVER...SUCH AS LACK OF A DEFINITIVE SHORTWAVE AND
RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO WIDESPREAD SVR NOT AS LIKELY.
GIVEN TIMING OF FRONTAL ZONE FEEL BEST THREAT OF STRONGER
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM OUR EASTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES INTO
VERMONT...ESP CENTRAL/ERN VT WHERE DECENT SFC HEATING THROUGH
MIDDAY SHOULD PUSH CAPE VALUES INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW PRE-FRONTAL FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE MODE
MORE LINEAR IN NATURE WITH A SHORT QLCS FEATURE POSSIBLY EVOLVING
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NERN VT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND TO BE THE
PRMIARY CONCERN GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGER HAIL WITH MOST INTENSE CORES AS
WELL...BUT WITH WBZ VALUES QUITE HIGH (ABV 11 KFT) WILL DOWNPLAY
THIS FOR NOW. ALSO SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 2
INCHES IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG IN THE DEEP WSW
FLOW. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN
VERMONT (80S) AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NRN NY (70S) WITH EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND CLOUDS.

BY THIS EVENING THE SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS
EASTWARD...CLEARING OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS TREND NORTHWESTERLY IN ALL AREAS. THUS LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS EAST SHOULD EXIT BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT A TAD SOONER.
HOWEVER...WILL OPT TO DELAY CLEARING TREND SOMEWHAT AS RECENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ACROSS SC CANADA SHOWING PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS NOW OCCURRING. LOWS QUITE
PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY TRENDS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AND IS BRIDGED ALOFT BY CYCLONIC FLOW
WITHIN MEAN ERN CONUS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH. WILL STILL ADVERTISE
JUST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
WITH SUCH DRY LOWER AND MID LEVELS AND THE LARGER VALLEYS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD RANGING THROUGH THE
70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY SEASONABLY COOL
FROM 45 TO 55 ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL
SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS CYCLONIC FLOW
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO BE
A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN THE
EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS TO BE A WASHOUT ON
ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING
DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD
BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE OCCASIONAL PERIODS
OF MIST AT SLK GIVEN CALM WINDS THERE NOW...BUT NOT LIKELY TO
DEVELOP IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
(ALREADY 25 KTS AT 1 KFT SAMPLED BY KTYX RADAR). INCLUDED LLWS AT
SLK GIVEN DECOUPLED/CALM WINDS.

MORE ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFIC TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT
FOR NOW WILL SHOW TIMING WINDOW WITH VCSH: BETWEEN 13Z MSS-
SLK...14-16Z PBG- BTV- RUT-MPV. THREAT OF THUNDER LOOKS TO END
20-21Z MSS- SLK...21-22Z PBG-BTV AND 00Z RUT-MPV. THOUGH LIKELY
VFR MOST OF THE TIME...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LLVL
TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED THREAT OF HAIL. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTH
WINDS 10-12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH
WINDS LOOK TO DROP OFF SOME WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
POST- FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUGGEST LOWER
CEILINGS WILL LINGER WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z THU...VFR/MVFR DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS. POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN MIST/FOG IF MORE CLEARING THAN ANTICIPATED.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MARINERS AND OTHERS WITH
RECREATIONAL PLANS ON THE LAKE TODAY SHOULD TAKE NOTE THAT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. PLEASE ENSURE THAT YOU KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTIONS SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN. THE STORMS
SHOULD END BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO
MARINE...JMG






000
FXUS61 KBTV 230745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
INTO VERMONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEHIND
THE FRONT DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH NY/NEW ENGLAND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DECENT COMBINATION OF PBL
INSTABILITY AND 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY SO IDEA OF SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME LOCALLY
STRONG TO SVR STILL LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT HOWEVER...SUCH AS LACK OF A DEFINITIVE SHORTWAVE AND
RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO WIDESPREAD SVR NOT AS LIKELY.
GIVEN TIMING OF FRONTAL ZONE FEEL BEST THREAT OF STRONGER
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM OUR EASTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES INTO
VERMONT...ESP CENTRAL/ERN VT WHERE DECENT SFC HEATING THROUGH
MIDDAY SHOULD PUSH CAPE VALUES INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW PRE-FRONTAL FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE MODE
MORE LINEAR IN NATURE WITH A SHORT QLCS FEATURE POSSIBLY EVOLVING
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NERN VT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND TO BE THE
PRMIARY CONCERN GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGER HAIL WITH MOST INTENSE CORES AS
WELL...BUT WITH WBZ VALUES QUITE HIGH (ABV 11 KFT) WILL DOWNPLAY
THIS FOR NOW. ALSO SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 2
INCHES IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG IN THE DEEP WSW
FLOW. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN
VERMONT (80S) AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NRN NY (70S) WITH EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND CLOUDS.

BY THIS EVENING THE SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS
EASTWARD...CLEARING OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS TREND NORTHWESTERLY IN ALL AREAS. THUS LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS EAST SHOULD EXIT BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT A TAD SOONER.
HOWEVER...WILL OPT TO DELAY CLEARING TREND SOMEWHAT AS RECENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ACROSS SC CANADA SHOWING PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS NOW OCCURRING. LOWS QUITE
PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY TRENDS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AND IS BRIDGED ALOFT BY CYCLONIC FLOW
WITHIN MEAN ERN CONUS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH. WILL STILL ADVERTISE
JUST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
WITH SUCH DRY LOWER AND MID LEVELS AND THE LARGER VALLEYS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD RANGING THROUGH THE
70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY SEASONABLY COOL
FROM 45 TO 55 ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL
SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS CYCLONIC FLOW
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO BE
A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN THE
EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS TO BE A WASHOUT ON
ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING
DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD
BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE OCCASIONAL PERIODS
OF MIST AT SLK GIVEN CALM WINDS THERE NOW...BUT NOT LIKELY TO
DEVELOP IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
(ALREADY 25 KTS AT 1 KFT SAMPLED BY KTYX RADAR). INCLUDED LLWS AT
SLK GIVEN DECOUPLED/CALM WINDS.

MORE ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFIC TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT
FOR NOW WILL SHOW TIMING WINDOW WITH VCSH: BETWEEN 13Z MSS-
SLK...14-16Z PBG- BTV- RUT-MPV. THREAT OF THUNDER LOOKS TO END
20-21Z MSS- SLK...21-22Z PBG-BTV AND 00Z RUT-MPV. THOUGH LIKELY
VFR MOST OF THE TIME...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LLVL
TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED THREAT OF HAIL. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTH
WINDS 10-12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH
WINDS LOOK TO DROP OFF SOME WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
POST- FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUGGEST LOWER
CEILINGS WILL LINGER WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z THU...VFR/MVFR DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS. POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN MIST/FOG IF MORE CLEARING THAN ANTICIPATED.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MARINERS AND OTHERS WITH
RECREATIONAL PLANS ON THE LAKE TODAY SHOULD TAKE NOTE THAT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. PLEASE ENSURE THAT YOU KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTIONS SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN. THE STORMS
SHOULD END BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO
MARINE...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 230729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
329 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1051 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTER REACHING 90F AT BTV THIS
AFTERNOON...DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE. WILL HAVE A
QUIET ALBEIT MODERATELY HUMID OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH JUST SOME
PREVAILING THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS COULD REACH THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 10-12Z...SO DID INCLUDE 20-30 POPS FOR WRN ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY DURING THAT TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THESE FACTORS WILL HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE CT VALLEY AND NEARBY RIVER
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS AND CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. PWAT VALUES
OF AROUND 1.8 TO NEARLY 2.0 INCHES. WET BULB ZERO VALUES ARE WELL
ABOVE 11000 FT AND APPROACH 12000 FT...SO HAIL THREAT IS MINIMAL.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS ALOFT ALSO SUGGESTS
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG...SO NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. COULD SEE SOME PONDING OF
WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL
SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS CYCLONIC FLOW
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO BE
A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN THE
EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS TO BE A WASHOUT ON
ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING
DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD
BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE OCCASIONAL PERIODS
OF MIST AT SLK GIVEN CALM WINDS THERE NOW...BUT NOT LIKELY TO
DEVELOP IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
(ALREADY 25 KTS AT 1 KFT SAMPLED BY KTYX RADAR). INCLUDED LLWS AT
SLK GIVEN DECOUPLED/CALM WINDS.

MORE ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFIC TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT
FOR NOW WILL SHOW TIMING WINDOW WITH VCSH: BETWEEN 13Z MSS-
SLK...14-16Z PBG- BTV- RUT-MPV. THREAT OF THUNDER LOOKS TO END
20-21Z MSS- SLK...21-22Z PBG-BTV AND 00Z RUT-MPV. THOUGH LIKELY
VFR MOST OF THE TIME...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LLVL
TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED THREAT OF HAIL. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTH
WINDS 10-12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH
WINDS LOOK TO DROP OFF SOME WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
POST- FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUGGEST LOWER
CEILINGS WILL LINGER WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z THU...VFR/MVFR DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS. POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN MIST/FOG IF MORE CLEARING THAN ANTICIPATED.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO











000
FXUS61 KBTV 230729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
329 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1051 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTER REACHING 90F AT BTV THIS
AFTERNOON...DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE. WILL HAVE A
QUIET ALBEIT MODERATELY HUMID OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH JUST SOME
PREVAILING THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS COULD REACH THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 10-12Z...SO DID INCLUDE 20-30 POPS FOR WRN ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY DURING THAT TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THESE FACTORS WILL HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE CT VALLEY AND NEARBY RIVER
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS AND CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. PWAT VALUES
OF AROUND 1.8 TO NEARLY 2.0 INCHES. WET BULB ZERO VALUES ARE WELL
ABOVE 11000 FT AND APPROACH 12000 FT...SO HAIL THREAT IS MINIMAL.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS ALOFT ALSO SUGGESTS
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG...SO NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. COULD SEE SOME PONDING OF
WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL
SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS CYCLONIC FLOW
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO BE
A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN THE
EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS TO BE A WASHOUT ON
ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING
DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD
BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE OCCASIONAL PERIODS
OF MIST AT SLK GIVEN CALM WINDS THERE NOW...BUT NOT LIKELY TO
DEVELOP IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
(ALREADY 25 KTS AT 1 KFT SAMPLED BY KTYX RADAR). INCLUDED LLWS AT
SLK GIVEN DECOUPLED/CALM WINDS.

MORE ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFIC TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT
FOR NOW WILL SHOW TIMING WINDOW WITH VCSH: BETWEEN 13Z MSS-
SLK...14-16Z PBG- BTV- RUT-MPV. THREAT OF THUNDER LOOKS TO END
20-21Z MSS- SLK...21-22Z PBG-BTV AND 00Z RUT-MPV. THOUGH LIKELY
VFR MOST OF THE TIME...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LLVL
TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED THREAT OF HAIL. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTH
WINDS 10-12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH
WINDS LOOK TO DROP OFF SOME WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
POST- FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUGGEST LOWER
CEILINGS WILL LINGER WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z THU...VFR/MVFR DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS. POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN MIST/FOG IF MORE CLEARING THAN ANTICIPATED.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO











000
FXUS61 KBTV 230729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
329 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1051 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTER REACHING 90F AT BTV THIS
AFTERNOON...DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE. WILL HAVE A
QUIET ALBEIT MODERATELY HUMID OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH JUST SOME
PREVAILING THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS COULD REACH THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 10-12Z...SO DID INCLUDE 20-30 POPS FOR WRN ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY DURING THAT TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THESE FACTORS WILL HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE CT VALLEY AND NEARBY RIVER
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS AND CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. PWAT VALUES
OF AROUND 1.8 TO NEARLY 2.0 INCHES. WET BULB ZERO VALUES ARE WELL
ABOVE 11000 FT AND APPROACH 12000 FT...SO HAIL THREAT IS MINIMAL.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS ALOFT ALSO SUGGESTS
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG...SO NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. COULD SEE SOME PONDING OF
WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL
SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS CYCLONIC FLOW
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO BE
A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN THE
EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS TO BE A WASHOUT ON
ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING
DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD
BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE OCCASIONAL PERIODS
OF MIST AT SLK GIVEN CALM WINDS THERE NOW...BUT NOT LIKELY TO
DEVELOP IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
(ALREADY 25 KTS AT 1 KFT SAMPLED BY KTYX RADAR). INCLUDED LLWS AT
SLK GIVEN DECOUPLED/CALM WINDS.

MORE ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFIC TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT
FOR NOW WILL SHOW TIMING WINDOW WITH VCSH: BETWEEN 13Z MSS-
SLK...14-16Z PBG- BTV- RUT-MPV. THREAT OF THUNDER LOOKS TO END
20-21Z MSS- SLK...21-22Z PBG-BTV AND 00Z RUT-MPV. THOUGH LIKELY
VFR MOST OF THE TIME...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LLVL
TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED THREAT OF HAIL. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTH
WINDS 10-12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH
WINDS LOOK TO DROP OFF SOME WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
POST- FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUGGEST LOWER
CEILINGS WILL LINGER WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z THU...VFR/MVFR DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS. POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN MIST/FOG IF MORE CLEARING THAN ANTICIPATED.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO











000
FXUS61 KBTV 230729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
329 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1051 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTER REACHING 90F AT BTV THIS
AFTERNOON...DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE. WILL HAVE A
QUIET ALBEIT MODERATELY HUMID OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH JUST SOME
PREVAILING THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS COULD REACH THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 10-12Z...SO DID INCLUDE 20-30 POPS FOR WRN ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY DURING THAT TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THESE FACTORS WILL HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE CT VALLEY AND NEARBY RIVER
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS AND CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. PWAT VALUES
OF AROUND 1.8 TO NEARLY 2.0 INCHES. WET BULB ZERO VALUES ARE WELL
ABOVE 11000 FT AND APPROACH 12000 FT...SO HAIL THREAT IS MINIMAL.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS ALOFT ALSO SUGGESTS
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG...SO NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. COULD SEE SOME PONDING OF
WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL
SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS CYCLONIC FLOW
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO BE
A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN THE
EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS TO BE A WASHOUT ON
ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING
DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD
BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE OCCASIONAL PERIODS
OF MIST AT SLK GIVEN CALM WINDS THERE NOW...BUT NOT LIKELY TO
DEVELOP IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
(ALREADY 25 KTS AT 1 KFT SAMPLED BY KTYX RADAR). INCLUDED LLWS AT
SLK GIVEN DECOUPLED/CALM WINDS.

MORE ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFIC TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT
FOR NOW WILL SHOW TIMING WINDOW WITH VCSH: BETWEEN 13Z MSS-
SLK...14-16Z PBG- BTV- RUT-MPV. THREAT OF THUNDER LOOKS TO END
20-21Z MSS- SLK...21-22Z PBG-BTV AND 00Z RUT-MPV. THOUGH LIKELY
VFR MOST OF THE TIME...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LLVL
TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED THREAT OF HAIL. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTH
WINDS 10-12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH
WINDS LOOK TO DROP OFF SOME WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
POST- FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUGGEST LOWER
CEILINGS WILL LINGER WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z THU...VFR/MVFR DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS. POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN MIST/FOG IF MORE CLEARING THAN ANTICIPATED.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO











000
FXUS61 KALY 230728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
328 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MID-UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THE HEAT INDEX AROUND 90F...AROUND 80F FOR THE
TERRAIN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE FROM AROUND 50F
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND UPPER 60S FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FOR KGFL WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KGFL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT.
HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO
ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 230728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
328 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MID-UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THE HEAT INDEX AROUND 90F...AROUND 80F FOR THE
TERRAIN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE FROM AROUND 50F
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND UPPER 60S FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FOR KGFL WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KGFL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT.
HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO
ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KBTV 230526
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1051 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTER REACHING 90F AT BTV THIS
AFTERNOON...DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE. WILL HAVE A
QUIET ALBEIT MODERATELY HUMID OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH JUST SOME
PREVAILING THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS COULD REACH THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 10-12Z...SO DID INCLUDE 20-30 POPS FOR WRN ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY DURING THAT TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THESE FACTORS WILL HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE CT VALLEY AND NEARBY RIVER
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS AND CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. PWAT VALUES
OF AROUND 1.8 TO NEARLY 2.0 INCHES. WET BULB ZERO VALUES ARE WELL
ABOVE 11000 FT AND APPROACH 12000 FT...SO HAIL THREAT IS MINIMAL.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS ALOFT ALSO SUGGESTS
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG...SO NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. COULD SEE SOME PONDING OF
WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...MOVING ON INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM A
UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. PATTERN BECOMES A
BIT MORE UNSETTLED AND UNCERTAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS IN THE HANDLING OF A
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRIDAY INTERACTING WITH
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. OVERALL THE GFS PHASES
THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE TROUGH MUCH FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...SHIFTING IT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
ECMWF SOLUTION SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AS WELL...JUST ONLY 24 HOURS
LATER. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TIMING AND CONTINUE
TO OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

BETTER SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES
MONDAY WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY
RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SYSTEM IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A
WET FEW DAYS TO START THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS
NOT OVERALL STRONG SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO
SIGNIFICANT...JUST SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE OCCASIONAL PERIODS
OF MIST AT SLK GIVEN CALM WINDS THERE NOW...BUT NOT LIKELY TO
DEVELOP IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
(ALREADY 25 KTS AT 1 KFT SAMPLED BY KTYX RADAR). INCLUDED LLWS AT
SLK GIVEN DECOUPLED/CALM WINDS.

MORE ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFIC TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT
FOR NOW WILL SHOW TIMING WINDOW WITH VCSH: BETWEEN 13Z MSS-
SLK...14-16Z PBG- BTV- RUT-MPV. THREAT OF THUNDER LOOKS TO END
20-21Z MSS- SLK...21-22Z PBG-BTV AND 00Z RUT-MPV. THOUGH LIKELY
VFR MOST OF THE TIME...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LLVL
TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED THREAT OF HAIL. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTH
WINDS 10-12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH
WINDS LOOK TO DROP OFF SOME WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
POST- FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUGGEST LOWER
CEILINGS WILL LINGER WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z THU...VFR/MVFR DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS. POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN MIST/FOG IF MORE CLEARING THAN ANTICIPATED.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO












000
FXUS61 KALY 230522
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70 DEGREES. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WILL HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THOSE AREAS PRONE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
FOG WITH HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. WITH THE LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE
RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER THE
ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS EARLY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON`S BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FOR KGFL WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KGFL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT.
HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO
ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE
OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HAVE THIS MENTIONED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN
UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 230522
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70 DEGREES. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WILL HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THOSE AREAS PRONE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
FOG WITH HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. WITH THE LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE
RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER THE
ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS EARLY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON`S BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FOR KGFL WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KGFL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT.
HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO
ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE
OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HAVE THIS MENTIONED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN
UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 230522
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70 DEGREES. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WILL HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THOSE AREAS PRONE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
FOG WITH HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. WITH THE LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE
RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER THE
ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS EARLY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON`S BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FOR KGFL WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KGFL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT.
HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO
ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE
OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HAVE THIS MENTIONED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN
UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 230522
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70 DEGREES. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WILL HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THOSE AREAS PRONE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
FOG WITH HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. WITH THE LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE
RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER THE
ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS EARLY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON`S BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FOR KGFL WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KGFL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT.
HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO
ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE
OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HAVE THIS MENTIONED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN
UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KBTV 230251
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1051 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1051 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTER REACHING 90F AT BTV THIS
AFTERNOON...DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE. WILL HAVE A
QUIET ALBEIT MODERATELY HUMID OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH JUST SOME
PREVAILING THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS COULD REACH THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 10-12Z...SO DID INCLUDE 20-30 POPS FOR WRN ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY DURING THAT TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THESE FACTORS WILL HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE CT VALLEY AND NEARBY RIVER
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS AND CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. PWAT VALUES
OF AROUND 1.8 TO NEARLY 2.0 INCHES. WET BULB ZERO VALUES ARE WELL
ABOVE 11000 FT AND APPROACH 12000 FT...SO HAIL THREAT IS MINIMAL.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS ALOFT ALSO SUGGESTS
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG...SO NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. COULD SEE SOME PONDING OF
WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...MOVING ON INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM A
UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. PATTERN BECOMES A
BIT MORE UNSETTLED AND UNCERTAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS IN THE HANDLING OF A
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRIDAY INTERACTING WITH
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. OVERALL THE GFS PHASES
THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE TROUGH MUCH FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...SHIFTING IT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
ECMWF SOLUTION SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AS WELL...JUST ONLY 24 HOURS
LATER. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TIMING AND CONTINUE
TO OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

BETTER SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES
MONDAY WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY
RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SYSTEM IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A
WET FEW DAYS TO START THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS
NOT OVERALL STRONG SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO
SIGNIFICANT...JUST SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR PSBL AT KSLK. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING...WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD. SFC RIDGE WEAKENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION. SO IN THE WANING HOURS OF RIDGING HIGH
PRESSURE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY 06Z/WED...AND LIGHT WINDS
AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO ENCROACH UPON THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...WITH BKN/OVC SKIES REACHING KMSS AROUND 12Z.
AFTER 12Z...COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION WITH SHRA AND
TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z AT KMSS...PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW-SW AT 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25KTS BY
MID MORNING.

SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH CPV AND KMPV BTWN
16Z AND 19Z...REACHING KRUT LAST AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SEWD.
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES. KMSS
LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP ENDING TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THU - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED
RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR
LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING
CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM






000
FXUS61 KBTV 230251
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1051 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1051 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTER REACHING 90F AT BTV THIS
AFTERNOON...DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE. WILL HAVE A
QUIET ALBEIT MODERATELY HUMID OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH JUST SOME
PREVAILING THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS COULD REACH THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 10-12Z...SO DID INCLUDE 20-30 POPS FOR WRN ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY DURING THAT TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THESE FACTORS WILL HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE CT VALLEY AND NEARBY RIVER
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS AND CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. PWAT VALUES
OF AROUND 1.8 TO NEARLY 2.0 INCHES. WET BULB ZERO VALUES ARE WELL
ABOVE 11000 FT AND APPROACH 12000 FT...SO HAIL THREAT IS MINIMAL.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS ALOFT ALSO SUGGESTS
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG...SO NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. COULD SEE SOME PONDING OF
WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...MOVING ON INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM A
UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. PATTERN BECOMES A
BIT MORE UNSETTLED AND UNCERTAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS IN THE HANDLING OF A
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRIDAY INTERACTING WITH
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. OVERALL THE GFS PHASES
THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE TROUGH MUCH FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...SHIFTING IT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
ECMWF SOLUTION SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AS WELL...JUST ONLY 24 HOURS
LATER. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TIMING AND CONTINUE
TO OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

BETTER SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES
MONDAY WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY
RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SYSTEM IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A
WET FEW DAYS TO START THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS
NOT OVERALL STRONG SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO
SIGNIFICANT...JUST SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR PSBL AT KSLK. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING...WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD. SFC RIDGE WEAKENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION. SO IN THE WANING HOURS OF RIDGING HIGH
PRESSURE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY 06Z/WED...AND LIGHT WINDS
AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO ENCROACH UPON THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...WITH BKN/OVC SKIES REACHING KMSS AROUND 12Z.
AFTER 12Z...COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION WITH SHRA AND
TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z AT KMSS...PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW-SW AT 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25KTS BY
MID MORNING.

SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH CPV AND KMPV BTWN
16Z AND 19Z...REACHING KRUT LAST AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SEWD.
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES. KMSS
LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP ENDING TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THU - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED
RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR
LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING
CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 230231
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1031 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MUGGY NIGHT ON TAP WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70 DEGREES. SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE
SOME PATCHY FOG IN THOSE AREAS PRONE TO THE DEVELOPMENT FOG WITH
HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. WITH THE LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE
RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER THE
ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS EARLY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON`S BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT UNDERWAY. CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE
WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AT KPSF...KGFL AND KPOU WITH MVFR AT KALB.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS
THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO
ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A SHIFT TO THE WEST WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE
OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HAVE THIS MENTIONED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN
UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 230231
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1031 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MUGGY NIGHT ON TAP WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70 DEGREES. SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE
SOME PATCHY FOG IN THOSE AREAS PRONE TO THE DEVELOPMENT FOG WITH
HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. WITH THE LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE
RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER THE
ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS EARLY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON`S BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT UNDERWAY. CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE
WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AT KPSF...KGFL AND KPOU WITH MVFR AT KALB.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS
THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO
ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A SHIFT TO THE WEST WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE
OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HAVE THIS MENTIONED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN
UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 230001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
801 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MUGGY NIGHT ON TAP WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70 DEGREES. CUMULUS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE DECREASED CLOUD
COVER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALSO HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS PRONE TO THE DEVELOPMENT FOG AS
SURFACE WINDS LIGHTEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. WITH THE LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE
RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER THE
ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS EARLY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON`S BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT UNDERWAY. CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE
WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AT KPSF...KGFL AND KPOU WITH MVFR AT KALB.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS
THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO
ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A SHIFT TO THE WEST WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE
OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HAVE THIS MENTIONED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN
UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 230001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
801 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MUGGY NIGHT ON TAP WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70 DEGREES. CUMULUS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE DECREASED CLOUD
COVER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALSO HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS PRONE TO THE DEVELOPMENT FOG AS
SURFACE WINDS LIGHTEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. WITH THE LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE
RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER THE
ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS EARLY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON`S BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT UNDERWAY. CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE
WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AT KPSF...KGFL AND KPOU WITH MVFR AT KALB.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS
THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO
ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A SHIFT TO THE WEST WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE
OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HAVE THIS MENTIONED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN
UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 222342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 736 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTER REACHING 90F AT BTV THIS
AFTERNOON...DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE. WILL HAVE A
QUIET ALBEIT MODERATELY HUMID OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH JUST SOME
PREVAILING THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. THESE FACTORS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE CT VALLEY AND
NEARBY RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS AND CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. PWAT VALUES
OF AROUND 1.8 TO NEARLY 2.0 INCHES. WET BULB ZERO VALUES ARE WELL
ABOVE 11000 FT AND APPROACH 12000 FT...SO HAIL THREAT IS MINIMAL.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS ALOFT ALSO SUGGESTS
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG...SO NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. COULD SEE SOME PONDING OF
WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...MOVING ON INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM A
UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. PATTERN BECOMES A
BIT MORE UNSETTLED AND UNCERTAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS IN THE HANDLING OF A
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRIDAY INTERACTING WITH
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. OVERALL THE GFS PHASES
THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE TROUGH MUCH FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...SHIFTING IT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
ECMWF SOLUTION SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AS WELL...JUST ONLY 24 HOURS
LATER. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TIMING AND CONTINUE
TO OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

BETTER SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES
MONDAY WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY
RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SYSTEM IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A
WET FEW DAYS TO START THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS
NOT OVERALL STRONG SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO
SIGNIFICANT...JUST SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR PSBL AT KSLK. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING...WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD. SFC RIDGE WEAKENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION. SO IN THE WANING HOURS OF RIDGING HIGH
PRESSURE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY 06Z/WED...AND LIGHT WINDS
AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO ENCROACH UPON THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...WITH BKN/OVC SKIES REACHING KMSS AROUND 12Z.
AFTER 12Z...COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION WITH SHRA AND
TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z AT KMSS...PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW-SW AT 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25KTS BY
MID MORNING.

SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH CPV AND KMPV BTWN
16Z AND 19Z...REACHING KRUT LAST AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SEWD.
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES. KMSS
LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP ENDING TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THU - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED
RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR
LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING
CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 222333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT TUESDAY...CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOME LOCATIONS. GFS MOS MIN TEMPERATURES LOOK A
BIT TOO COOL OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES. HAVE INCLUDED SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE CONNECTICUT AND
WHITE RIVER VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE HAD
FOG FOR THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHT. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR FOG IN
THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS AND CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. PWAT VALUES
OF AROUND 1.8 TO NEARLY 2.0 INCHES. WET BULB ZERO VALUES ARE WELL
ABOVE 11000 FT AND APPROACH 12000 FT...SO HAIL THREAT IS MINIMAL.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS ALOFT ALSO SUGGESTS
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG...SO NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. COULD SEE SOME PONDING OF
WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...MOVING ON INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM A
UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. PATTERN BECOMES A
BIT MORE UNSETTLED AND UNCERTAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS IN THE HANDLING OF A
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRIDAY INTERACTING WITH
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. OVERALL THE GFS PHASES
THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE TROUGH MUCH FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...SHIFTING IT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
ECMWF SOLUTION SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AS WELL...JUST ONLY 24 HOURS
LATER. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TIMING AND CONTINUE
TO OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

BETTER SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES
MONDAY WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY
RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SYSTEM IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A
WET FEW DAYS TO START THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS
NOT OVERALL STRONG SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO
SIGNIFICANT...JUST SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR PSBL AT KSLK. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING...WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD. SFC RIDGE WEAKENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION. SO IN THE WANING HOURS OF RIDGING HIGH
PRESSURE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY 06Z/WED...AND LIGHT WINDS
AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO ENCROACH UPON THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...WITH BKN/OVC SKIES REACHING KMSS AROUND 12Z.
AFTER 12Z...COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION WITH SHRA AND
TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z AT KMSS...PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW-SW AT 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25KTS BY
MID MORNING.

SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH CPV AND KMPV BTWN
16Z AND 19Z...REACHING KRUT LAST AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SEWD.
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES. KMSS
LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP ENDING TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THU - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED
RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR
LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING
CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 222333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT TUESDAY...CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOME LOCATIONS. GFS MOS MIN TEMPERATURES LOOK A
BIT TOO COOL OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES. HAVE INCLUDED SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE CONNECTICUT AND
WHITE RIVER VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE HAD
FOG FOR THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHT. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR FOG IN
THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS AND CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. PWAT VALUES
OF AROUND 1.8 TO NEARLY 2.0 INCHES. WET BULB ZERO VALUES ARE WELL
ABOVE 11000 FT AND APPROACH 12000 FT...SO HAIL THREAT IS MINIMAL.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS ALOFT ALSO SUGGESTS
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG...SO NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. COULD SEE SOME PONDING OF
WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...MOVING ON INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM A
UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. PATTERN BECOMES A
BIT MORE UNSETTLED AND UNCERTAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS IN THE HANDLING OF A
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRIDAY INTERACTING WITH
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. OVERALL THE GFS PHASES
THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE TROUGH MUCH FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...SHIFTING IT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
ECMWF SOLUTION SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AS WELL...JUST ONLY 24 HOURS
LATER. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TIMING AND CONTINUE
TO OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

BETTER SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES
MONDAY WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY
RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SYSTEM IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A
WET FEW DAYS TO START THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS
NOT OVERALL STRONG SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO
SIGNIFICANT...JUST SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR PSBL AT KSLK. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING...WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD. SFC RIDGE WEAKENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION. SO IN THE WANING HOURS OF RIDGING HIGH
PRESSURE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY 06Z/WED...AND LIGHT WINDS
AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO ENCROACH UPON THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...WITH BKN/OVC SKIES REACHING KMSS AROUND 12Z.
AFTER 12Z...COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION WITH SHRA AND
TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z AT KMSS...PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW-SW AT 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25KTS BY
MID MORNING.

SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH CPV AND KMPV BTWN
16Z AND 19Z...REACHING KRUT LAST AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SEWD.
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES. KMSS
LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP ENDING TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THU - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED
RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR
LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING
CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 222333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT TUESDAY...CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOME LOCATIONS. GFS MOS MIN TEMPERATURES LOOK A
BIT TOO COOL OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES. HAVE INCLUDED SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE CONNECTICUT AND
WHITE RIVER VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE HAD
FOG FOR THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHT. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR FOG IN
THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS AND CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. PWAT VALUES
OF AROUND 1.8 TO NEARLY 2.0 INCHES. WET BULB ZERO VALUES ARE WELL
ABOVE 11000 FT AND APPROACH 12000 FT...SO HAIL THREAT IS MINIMAL.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS ALOFT ALSO SUGGESTS
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG...SO NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. COULD SEE SOME PONDING OF
WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...MOVING ON INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM A
UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. PATTERN BECOMES A
BIT MORE UNSETTLED AND UNCERTAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS IN THE HANDLING OF A
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRIDAY INTERACTING WITH
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. OVERALL THE GFS PHASES
THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE TROUGH MUCH FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...SHIFTING IT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
ECMWF SOLUTION SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AS WELL...JUST ONLY 24 HOURS
LATER. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TIMING AND CONTINUE
TO OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

BETTER SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES
MONDAY WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY
RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SYSTEM IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A
WET FEW DAYS TO START THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS
NOT OVERALL STRONG SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO
SIGNIFICANT...JUST SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR PSBL AT KSLK. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING...WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD. SFC RIDGE WEAKENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION. SO IN THE WANING HOURS OF RIDGING HIGH
PRESSURE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY 06Z/WED...AND LIGHT WINDS
AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO ENCROACH UPON THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...WITH BKN/OVC SKIES REACHING KMSS AROUND 12Z.
AFTER 12Z...COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION WITH SHRA AND
TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z AT KMSS...PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW-SW AT 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25KTS BY
MID MORNING.

SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH CPV AND KMPV BTWN
16Z AND 19Z...REACHING KRUT LAST AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SEWD.
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES. KMSS
LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP ENDING TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THU - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED
RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR
LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING
CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 222333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT TUESDAY...CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOME LOCATIONS. GFS MOS MIN TEMPERATURES LOOK A
BIT TOO COOL OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES. HAVE INCLUDED SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE CONNECTICUT AND
WHITE RIVER VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE HAD
FOG FOR THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHT. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR FOG IN
THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS AND CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. PWAT VALUES
OF AROUND 1.8 TO NEARLY 2.0 INCHES. WET BULB ZERO VALUES ARE WELL
ABOVE 11000 FT AND APPROACH 12000 FT...SO HAIL THREAT IS MINIMAL.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS ALOFT ALSO SUGGESTS
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG...SO NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. COULD SEE SOME PONDING OF
WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...MOVING ON INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM A
UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. PATTERN BECOMES A
BIT MORE UNSETTLED AND UNCERTAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS IN THE HANDLING OF A
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRIDAY INTERACTING WITH
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. OVERALL THE GFS PHASES
THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE TROUGH MUCH FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...SHIFTING IT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
ECMWF SOLUTION SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AS WELL...JUST ONLY 24 HOURS
LATER. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TIMING AND CONTINUE
TO OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

BETTER SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES
MONDAY WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY
RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SYSTEM IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A
WET FEW DAYS TO START THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS
NOT OVERALL STRONG SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO
SIGNIFICANT...JUST SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR PSBL AT KSLK. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING...WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD. SFC RIDGE WEAKENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION. SO IN THE WANING HOURS OF RIDGING HIGH
PRESSURE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY 06Z/WED...AND LIGHT WINDS
AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO ENCROACH UPON THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...WITH BKN/OVC SKIES REACHING KMSS AROUND 12Z.
AFTER 12Z...COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION WITH SHRA AND
TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z AT KMSS...PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW-SW AT 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25KTS BY
MID MORNING.

SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH CPV AND KMPV BTWN
16Z AND 19Z...REACHING KRUT LAST AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SEWD.
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES. KMSS
LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP ENDING TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THU - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED
RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR
LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING
CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 222129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
529 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 450 PM...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SINCE NO
SHOWER AT ANY TIME TODAY REACH LEVELS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MAINLY CLEAT TO PARTLY CLOUDY...VERY WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE 60 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
EARLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z. WITH VERY
MUGGY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE SOME RESTRICTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG OR HAZE TONIGHT. IFR DUE TO FOG/LOW CLOUD IS
FORECAST AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MVFR FORECAST. AFTER
DAYBREAK...HEATING FROM SUN AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED ALL SITES DURING
THE DAY DUE TO HAZE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND 1+ INCH HAIL TO THE
TAF SITES.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD /18Z WEDNESDAY/ ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 222129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
529 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 450 PM...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SINCE NO
SHOWER AT ANY TIME TODAY REACH LEVELS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MAINLY CLEAT TO PARTLY CLOUDY...VERY WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE 60 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
EARLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z. WITH VERY
MUGGY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE SOME RESTRICTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG OR HAZE TONIGHT. IFR DUE TO FOG/LOW CLOUD IS
FORECAST AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MVFR FORECAST. AFTER
DAYBREAK...HEATING FROM SUN AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED ALL SITES DURING
THE DAY DUE TO HAZE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND 1+ INCH HAIL TO THE
TAF SITES.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD /18Z WEDNESDAY/ ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 222129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
529 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 450 PM...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SINCE NO
SHOWER AT ANY TIME TODAY REACH LEVELS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MAINLY CLEAT TO PARTLY CLOUDY...VERY WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE 60 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
EARLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z. WITH VERY
MUGGY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE SOME RESTRICTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG OR HAZE TONIGHT. IFR DUE TO FOG/LOW CLOUD IS
FORECAST AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MVFR FORECAST. AFTER
DAYBREAK...HEATING FROM SUN AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED ALL SITES DURING
THE DAY DUE TO HAZE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND 1+ INCH HAIL TO THE
TAF SITES.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD /18Z WEDNESDAY/ ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 222129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
529 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 450 PM...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SINCE NO
SHOWER AT ANY TIME TODAY REACH LEVELS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MAINLY CLEAT TO PARTLY CLOUDY...VERY WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE 60 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
EARLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z. WITH VERY
MUGGY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE SOME RESTRICTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG OR HAZE TONIGHT. IFR DUE TO FOG/LOW CLOUD IS
FORECAST AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MVFR FORECAST. AFTER
DAYBREAK...HEATING FROM SUN AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED ALL SITES DURING
THE DAY DUE TO HAZE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND 1+ INCH HAIL TO THE
TAF SITES.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD /18Z WEDNESDAY/ ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 222048
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
448 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 450 PM...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SINCE NO
SHOWER AT ANY TIME TODAY REACH LEVELS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MAINLY CLEAT TO PARTLY CLOUDY...VERY WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE 60 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
EARLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

COMING SOON...

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z. WITH VERY
MUGGY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE SOME RESTRICTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG OR HAZE TONIGHT. IFR DUE TO FOG/LOW CLOUD IS
FORECAST AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MVFR FORECAST. AFTER
DAYBREAK...HEATING FROM SUN AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED ALL SITES DURING
THE DAY DUE TO HAZE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND 1+ INCH HAIL TO THE
TAF SITES.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD /18Z WEDNESDAY/ ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM











000
FXUS61 KALY 222048
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
448 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 450 PM...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SINCE NO
SHOWER AT ANY TIME TODAY REACH LEVELS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MAINLY CLEAT TO PARTLY CLOUDY...VERY WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE 60 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
EARLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

COMING SOON...

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z. WITH VERY
MUGGY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE SOME RESTRICTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG OR HAZE TONIGHT. IFR DUE TO FOG/LOW CLOUD IS
FORECAST AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MVFR FORECAST. AFTER
DAYBREAK...HEATING FROM SUN AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED ALL SITES DURING
THE DAY DUE TO HAZE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND 1+ INCH HAIL TO THE
TAF SITES.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD /18Z WEDNESDAY/ ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KBTV 222003
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT TUESDAY...CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOME LOCATIONS. GFS MOS MIN TEMPERATURES LOOK A
BIT TOO COOL OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES. HAVE INCLUDED SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE CONNECTICUT AND
WHITE RIVER VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE HAD
FOG FOR THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHT. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR FOG IN
THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS AND CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. PWAT VALUES
OF AROUND 1.8 TO NEARLY 2.0 INCHES. WET BULB ZERO VALUES ARE WELL
ABOVE 11000 FT AND APPROACH 12000 FT...SO HAIL THREAT IS MINIMAL.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS ALOFT ALSO SUGGESTS
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG...SO NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. COULD SEE SOME PONDING OF
WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...MOVING ON INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM A
UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. PATTERN BECOMES A
BIT MORE UNSETTLED AND UNCERTAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS IN THE HANDLING OF A
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRIDAY INTERACTING WITH
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. OVERALL THE GFS PHASES
THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE TROUGH MUCH FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...SHIFTING IT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
ECMWF SOLUTION SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AS WELL...JUST ONLY 24 HOURS
LATER. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TIMING AND CONTINUE
TO OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

BETTER SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES
MONDAY WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY
RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SYSTEM IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A
WET FEW DAYS TO START THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS
NOT OVERALL STRONG SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO
SIGNIFICANT...JUST SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH WEATHER BECOMING MORE ACTIVE
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE TO SKC AFTER 00-02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKC WILL RULE OVERNIGHT...BUT
DON`T EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK
INCREASE TO 10-20KTS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...STRONGEST IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER 12Z...COLD FRONT
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION WITH TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z AT
KMSS...PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS COULD BE STRONG...CAPABLE
OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK POSSIBLE.
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 222003
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT TUESDAY...CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOME LOCATIONS. GFS MOS MIN TEMPERATURES LOOK A
BIT TOO COOL OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES. HAVE INCLUDED SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE CONNECTICUT AND
WHITE RIVER VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE HAD
FOG FOR THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHT. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR FOG IN
THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS AND CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. PWAT VALUES
OF AROUND 1.8 TO NEARLY 2.0 INCHES. WET BULB ZERO VALUES ARE WELL
ABOVE 11000 FT AND APPROACH 12000 FT...SO HAIL THREAT IS MINIMAL.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS ALOFT ALSO SUGGESTS
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG...SO NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. COULD SEE SOME PONDING OF
WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...MOVING ON INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM A
UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. PATTERN BECOMES A
BIT MORE UNSETTLED AND UNCERTAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS IN THE HANDLING OF A
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRIDAY INTERACTING WITH
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. OVERALL THE GFS PHASES
THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE TROUGH MUCH FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...SHIFTING IT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
ECMWF SOLUTION SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AS WELL...JUST ONLY 24 HOURS
LATER. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TIMING AND CONTINUE
TO OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

BETTER SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES
MONDAY WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY
RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SYSTEM IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A
WET FEW DAYS TO START THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS
NOT OVERALL STRONG SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO
SIGNIFICANT...JUST SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH WEATHER BECOMING MORE ACTIVE
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE TO SKC AFTER 00-02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKC WILL RULE OVERNIGHT...BUT
DON`T EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK
INCREASE TO 10-20KTS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...STRONGEST IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER 12Z...COLD FRONT
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION WITH TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z AT
KMSS...PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS COULD BE STRONG...CAPABLE
OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK POSSIBLE.
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221919
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
319 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT TUESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE... SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...MOVING ON INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM A
UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. PATTERN BECOMES A
BIT MORE UNSETTLED AND UNCERTAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS IN THE HANDLING OF A
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRIDAY INTERACTING WITH
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. OVERALL THE GFS PHASES
THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE TROUGH MUCH FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...SHIFTING IT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
ECMWF SOLUTION SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AS WELL...JUST ONLY 24 HOURS
LATER. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TIMING AND CONTINUE
TO OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

BETTER SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES
MONDAY WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY
RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SYSTEM IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A
WET FEW DAYS TO START THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS
NOT OVERALL STRONG SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO
SIGNIFICANT...JUST SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH WEATHER BECOMING MORE ACTIVE
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE TO SKC AFTER 00-02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKC WILL RULE OVERNIGHT...BUT
DON`T EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK
INCREASE TO 10-20KTS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...STRONGEST IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER 12Z...COLD FRONT
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION WITH TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z AT
KMSS...PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS COULD BE STRONG...CAPABLE
OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK POSSIBLE.
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 221919
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
319 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT TUESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE... SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...MOVING ON INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM A
UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. PATTERN BECOMES A
BIT MORE UNSETTLED AND UNCERTAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS IN THE HANDLING OF A
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRIDAY INTERACTING WITH
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. OVERALL THE GFS PHASES
THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE TROUGH MUCH FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...SHIFTING IT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
ECMWF SOLUTION SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AS WELL...JUST ONLY 24 HOURS
LATER. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TIMING AND CONTINUE
TO OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

BETTER SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES
MONDAY WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY
RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SYSTEM IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A
WET FEW DAYS TO START THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS
NOT OVERALL STRONG SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO
SIGNIFICANT...JUST SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH WEATHER BECOMING MORE ACTIVE
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE TO SKC AFTER 00-02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKC WILL RULE OVERNIGHT...BUT
DON`T EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK
INCREASE TO 10-20KTS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...STRONGEST IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER 12Z...COLD FRONT
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION WITH TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z AT
KMSS...PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS COULD BE STRONG...CAPABLE
OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK POSSIBLE.
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KALY 221759
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN
WITH ISOLATE VERY SMALL SHOWERS ON RADAR. WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z. WITH VERY
MUGGY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE SOME RESTRICTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG OR HAZE TONIGHT. IFR DUE TO FOG/LOW CLOUD IS
FORECAST AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MVFR FORECAST. AFTER
DAYBREAK...HEATING FROM SUN AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED ALL SITES DURING
THE DAY DUE TO HAZE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND 1+ INCH HAIL TO THE
TAF SITES.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD /18Z WEDNESDAY/ ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 221735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT TUESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE... SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH WEATHER BECOMING MORE ACTIVE
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE TO SKC AFTER 00-02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKC WILL RULE OVERNIGHT...BUT
DON`T EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK
INCREASE TO 10-20KTS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...STRONGEST IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER 12Z...COLD FRONT
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION WITH TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z AT
KMSS...PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS COULD BE STRONG...CAPABLE
OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK POSSIBLE.
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT TUESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE... SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH WEATHER BECOMING MORE ACTIVE
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE TO SKC AFTER 00-02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKC WILL RULE OVERNIGHT...BUT
DON`T EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK
INCREASE TO 10-20KTS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...STRONGEST IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER 12Z...COLD FRONT
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION WITH TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z AT
KMSS...PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS COULD BE STRONG...CAPABLE
OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK POSSIBLE.
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KALY 221723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN
WITH ISOLATE VERY SMALL SHOWERS ON RADAR. WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...GJM/SND
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 221723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN
WITH ISOLATE VERY SMALL SHOWERS ON RADAR. WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...GJM/SND
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM











000
FXUS61 KBTV 221710
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
110 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1038 AM EDT TUESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AND ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 718 AM EDT TUESDAY...NOISE LEVEL TWEAKS TO SKY
COVER AND HOURLY T/TDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
TO BLEND INTO EXISTENT DATA AT THE 9/10 AM HOUR. NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY
AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO
LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN
THE BROADER VALLEYS. WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH WEATHER BECOMING MORE ACTIVE
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE TO SKC AFTER 00-02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKC WILL RULE OVERNIGHT...BUT
DON`T EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK
INCREASE TO 10-20KTS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...STRONGEST IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER 12Z...COLD FRONT
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION WITH TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z AT
KMSS...PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS COULD BE STRONG...CAPABLE
OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK POSSIBLE.
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221710
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
110 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1038 AM EDT TUESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AND ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 718 AM EDT TUESDAY...NOISE LEVEL TWEAKS TO SKY
COVER AND HOURLY T/TDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
TO BLEND INTO EXISTENT DATA AT THE 9/10 AM HOUR. NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY
AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO
LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN
THE BROADER VALLEYS. WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH WEATHER BECOMING MORE ACTIVE
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE TO SKC AFTER 00-02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKC WILL RULE OVERNIGHT...BUT
DON`T EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK
INCREASE TO 10-20KTS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...STRONGEST IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER 12Z...COLD FRONT
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION WITH TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z AT
KMSS...PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS COULD BE STRONG...CAPABLE
OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK POSSIBLE.
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KALY 221501
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1101 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. FIRST SMALL ECHO IS
ON RADAR JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING FAST TODAY WITH ALBANY AIRPORT 78F AT 10 AM...WITH 80
CURRENTLY HERE ON ROOF. LATEST UPDATE INCLUDES NERFC QPF AND
WINDS BASED ON 12Z NAM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS NEXT 36 HOURS
BASED ON QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221501
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1101 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. FIRST SMALL ECHO IS
ON RADAR JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING FAST TODAY WITH ALBANY AIRPORT 78F AT 10 AM...WITH 80
CURRENTLY HERE ON ROOF. LATEST UPDATE INCLUDES NERFC QPF AND
WINDS BASED ON 12Z NAM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS NEXT 36 HOURS
BASED ON QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








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