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000
FXUS61 KBTV 302356
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
756 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A GREATER THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 756 PM EDT TUESDAY...LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO HAVE DROPPED THE MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND WILL JUST KEEP IN A MENTION OF RAIN
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND
COULD HAVE AN EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH COOLING EFFECTS
FROM RAINFALL FURTHERING STABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO EXIT NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.1 TO 0.5 INCH POSSIBLE.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING, MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING THROUGH MOST
TERMINALS BUT SHOULD BE DONE AROUND 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR KMSS/KSLK/KMPV FROM 03Z-13Z WITH CEILINGS
LINGERING AROUND OR AT MVFR AT KMSS AND KSLK FROM MOST OF THE
PERIOD. KSLK COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF IFR FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 15-20 AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/MV
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 302347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A GREATER THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD HAVE AN
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH COOLING EFFECTS FROM RAINFALL
FURTHERING STABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT
NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.1 TO
0.5 INCH POSSIBLE.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING, MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING THROUGH MOST
TERMINALS BUT SHOULD BE DONE AROUND 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR KMSS/KSLK/KMPV FROM 03Z-13Z WITH CEILINGS
LINGERING AROUND OR AT MVFR AT KMSS AND KSLK FROM MOST OF THE
PERIOD. KSLK COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF IFR FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 15-20 AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/MV
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 302347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A GREATER THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD HAVE AN
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH COOLING EFFECTS FROM RAINFALL
FURTHERING STABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT
NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.1 TO
0.5 INCH POSSIBLE.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING, MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING THROUGH MOST
TERMINALS BUT SHOULD BE DONE AROUND 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR KMSS/KSLK/KMPV FROM 03Z-13Z WITH CEILINGS
LINGERING AROUND OR AT MVFR AT KMSS AND KSLK FROM MOST OF THE
PERIOD. KSLK COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF IFR FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 15-20 AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/MV
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 302114
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
514 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 302114
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
514 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 302027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
427 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY..
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 1 AM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.62 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 302027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
427 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY..
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 1 AM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.62 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301953
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A GREATER THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD HAVE AN
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH COOLING EFFECTS FROM RAINFALL
FURTHERING STABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT
NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.1 TO
0.5 INCH POSSIBLE.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING, MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD, ESP AT KSLK. AFTER 00Z SCT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF COVERAGE HAVE CARRIED VCSH MAINLY
AT NRN NY TERMINALS ONLY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD
EXIST. CIGS GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301953
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A GREATER THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD HAVE AN
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH COOLING EFFECTS FROM RAINFALL
FURTHERING STABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT
NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.1 TO
0.5 INCH POSSIBLE.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING, MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD, ESP AT KSLK. AFTER 00Z SCT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF COVERAGE HAVE CARRIED VCSH MAINLY
AT NRN NY TERMINALS ONLY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD
EXIST. CIGS GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301953
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A GREATER THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD HAVE AN
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH COOLING EFFECTS FROM RAINFALL
FURTHERING STABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT
NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.1 TO
0.5 INCH POSSIBLE.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING, MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD, ESP AT KSLK. AFTER 00Z SCT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF COVERAGE HAVE CARRIED VCSH MAINLY
AT NRN NY TERMINALS ONLY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD
EXIST. CIGS GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301953
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A GREATER THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD HAVE AN
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH COOLING EFFECTS FROM RAINFALL
FURTHERING STABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT
NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.1 TO
0.5 INCH POSSIBLE.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING, MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD, ESP AT KSLK. AFTER 00Z SCT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF COVERAGE HAVE CARRIED VCSH MAINLY
AT NRN NY TERMINALS ONLY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD
EXIST. CIGS GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301953
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A GREATER THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD HAVE AN
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH COOLING EFFECTS FROM RAINFALL
FURTHERING STABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT
NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.1 TO
0.5 INCH POSSIBLE.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING, MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD, ESP AT KSLK. AFTER 00Z SCT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF COVERAGE HAVE CARRIED VCSH MAINLY
AT NRN NY TERMINALS ONLY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD
EXIST. CIGS GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301953
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A GREATER THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD HAVE AN
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH COOLING EFFECTS FROM RAINFALL
FURTHERING STABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT
NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.1 TO
0.5 INCH POSSIBLE.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING, MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD, ESP AT KSLK. AFTER 00Z SCT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF COVERAGE HAVE CARRIED VCSH MAINLY
AT NRN NY TERMINALS ONLY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD
EXIST. CIGS GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 301901
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
301 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 146 PM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
INTO EASTERN NY, THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE WEAK WITH ISOLATED OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS BEING THE ONLY ACTIVITY SO FAR. LIMITED CAPE OF 500
J/KG SHOULD SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING THIS AFTN. WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY REACHING 75-81F. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB
HEIGHT FALLS 15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO
500-800 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY
TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS
TO 60-80 PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH
BEST SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL
HEATING)...BUT A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY
REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD, ESP AT KSLK. AFTER 00Z SCT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF COVERAGE HAVE CARRIED VCSH MAINLY AT NRN
NY TERMINALS ONLY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD EXIST.
CIGS GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR
IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301901
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
301 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 146 PM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
INTO EASTERN NY, THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE WEAK WITH ISOLATED OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS BEING THE ONLY ACTIVITY SO FAR. LIMITED CAPE OF 500
J/KG SHOULD SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING THIS AFTN. WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY REACHING 75-81F. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB
HEIGHT FALLS 15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO
500-800 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY
TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS
TO 60-80 PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH
BEST SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL
HEATING)...BUT A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY
REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD, ESP AT KSLK. AFTER 00Z SCT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF COVERAGE HAVE CARRIED VCSH MAINLY AT NRN
NY TERMINALS ONLY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD EXIST.
CIGS GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR
IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 301746
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
146 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 146 PM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
INTO EASTERN NY, THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE WEAK WITH ISOLATED OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS BEING THE ONLY ACTIVITY SO FAR. LIMITED CAPE OF 500
J/KG SHOULD SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING THIS AFTN. WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY REACHING 75-81F. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB
HEIGHT FALLS 15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO
500-800 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY
TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS
TO 60-80 PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH
BEST SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL
HEATING)...BUT A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY
REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL
WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM BTWN
11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS. A FEW
WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK...BASED ON
CRNT MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD, ESP AT KSLK. AFTER 00Z SCT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF COVERAGE HAVE CARRIED VCSH MAINLY AT NRN
NY TERMINALS ONLY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD EXIST.
CIGS GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR
IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301746
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
146 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 146 PM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
INTO EASTERN NY, THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE WEAK WITH ISOLATED OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS BEING THE ONLY ACTIVITY SO FAR. LIMITED CAPE OF 500
J/KG SHOULD SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING THIS AFTN. WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY REACHING 75-81F. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB
HEIGHT FALLS 15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO
500-800 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY
TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS
TO 60-80 PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH
BEST SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL
HEATING)...BUT A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY
REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL
WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM BTWN
11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS. A FEW
WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK...BASED ON
CRNT MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD, ESP AT KSLK. AFTER 00Z SCT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF COVERAGE HAVE CARRIED VCSH MAINLY AT NRN
NY TERMINALS ONLY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD EXIST.
CIGS GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR
IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 301725
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CURRENTLY ENCROACHING UPON SOUTHWESTERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY
AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, SPREADING AND LOWERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY, ALSO BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN HALF OF
AND NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 1130Z. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES TOWARD 15Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 20-23Z. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER
00Z NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG ACROSS NRN NY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING THIS AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS NRN
NY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A FEW HRS LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY
HIGHS GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT BTV
AND VSF. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB
HEIGHT FALLS 15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO
500-800 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY
TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS
TO 60-80 PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH
BEST SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL
HEATING)...BUT A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY
REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL
WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM BTWN
11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS. A FEW
WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK...BASED ON
CRNT MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD, ESP AT KSLK. AFTER 00Z SCT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF COVERAGE HAVE CARRIED VCSH MAINLY AT NRN
NY TERMINALS ONLY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD EXIST.
CIGS GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR
IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301725
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CURRENTLY ENCROACHING UPON SOUTHWESTERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY
AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, SPREADING AND LOWERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY, ALSO BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN HALF OF
AND NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 1130Z. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES TOWARD 15Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 20-23Z. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER
00Z NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG ACROSS NRN NY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING THIS AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS NRN
NY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A FEW HRS LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY
HIGHS GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT BTV
AND VSF. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB
HEIGHT FALLS 15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO
500-800 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY
TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS
TO 60-80 PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH
BEST SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL
HEATING)...BUT A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY
REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL
WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM BTWN
11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS. A FEW
WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK...BASED ON
CRNT MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD, ESP AT KSLK. AFTER 00Z SCT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF COVERAGE HAVE CARRIED VCSH MAINLY AT NRN
NY TERMINALS ONLY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD EXIST.
CIGS GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR
IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301725
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CURRENTLY ENCROACHING UPON SOUTHWESTERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY
AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, SPREADING AND LOWERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY, ALSO BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN HALF OF
AND NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 1130Z. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES TOWARD 15Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 20-23Z. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER
00Z NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG ACROSS NRN NY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING THIS AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS NRN
NY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A FEW HRS LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY
HIGHS GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT BTV
AND VSF. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB
HEIGHT FALLS 15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO
500-800 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY
TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS
TO 60-80 PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH
BEST SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL
HEATING)...BUT A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY
REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL
WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM BTWN
11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS. A FEW
WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK...BASED ON
CRNT MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD, ESP AT KSLK. AFTER 00Z SCT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF COVERAGE HAVE CARRIED VCSH MAINLY AT NRN
NY TERMINALS ONLY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD EXIST.
CIGS GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR
IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301725
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CURRENTLY ENCROACHING UPON SOUTHWESTERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY
AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, SPREADING AND LOWERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY, ALSO BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN HALF OF
AND NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 1130Z. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES TOWARD 15Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 20-23Z. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER
00Z NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG ACROSS NRN NY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING THIS AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS NRN
NY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A FEW HRS LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY
HIGHS GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT BTV
AND VSF. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB
HEIGHT FALLS 15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO
500-800 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY
TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS
TO 60-80 PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH
BEST SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL
HEATING)...BUT A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY
REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL
WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM BTWN
11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS. A FEW
WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK...BASED ON
CRNT MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD, ESP AT KSLK. AFTER 00Z SCT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF COVERAGE HAVE CARRIED VCSH MAINLY AT NRN
NY TERMINALS ONLY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD EXIST.
CIGS GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR
IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 301717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 301717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KBTV 301440
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1040 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CURRENTLY ENCROACHING UPON SOUTHWESTERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY
AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, SPREADING AND LOWERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY, ALSO BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN HALF OF
AND NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 1130Z. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES TOWARD 15Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 20-23Z. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER
00Z NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG ACROSS NRN NY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING THIS AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS NRN
NY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A FEW HRS LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY
HIGHS GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT BTV
AND VSF. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB
HEIGHT FALLS 15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO
500-800 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY
TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS
TO 60-80 PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH
BEST SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL
HEATING)...BUT A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY
REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL
WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM BTWN
11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS. A FEW
WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK...BASED ON
CRNT MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LIFR IN FOG/BR AND CIGS OVERCAST AROUND
100 FEET WILL PREVAIL AT SLK/MPV THROUGH 13Z.
OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL RACE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV...BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 5
TO 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT SLK/MPV OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME BR POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS NOT REACHING CROSS OVER
VALUES.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS. DRIER
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301440
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1040 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CURRENTLY ENCROACHING UPON SOUTHWESTERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY
AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, SPREADING AND LOWERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY, ALSO BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN HALF OF
AND NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 1130Z. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES TOWARD 15Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 20-23Z. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER
00Z NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG ACROSS NRN NY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING THIS AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS NRN
NY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A FEW HRS LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY
HIGHS GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT BTV
AND VSF. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB
HEIGHT FALLS 15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO
500-800 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY
TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS
TO 60-80 PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH
BEST SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL
HEATING)...BUT A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY
REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL
WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM BTWN
11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS. A FEW
WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK...BASED ON
CRNT MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LIFR IN FOG/BR AND CIGS OVERCAST AROUND
100 FEET WILL PREVAIL AT SLK/MPV THROUGH 13Z.
OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL RACE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV...BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 5
TO 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT SLK/MPV OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME BR POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS NOT REACHING CROSS OVER
VALUES.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS. DRIER
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 301440
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1040 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CURRENTLY ENCROACHING UPON SOUTHWESTERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY
AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, SPREADING AND LOWERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY, ALSO BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN HALF OF
AND NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 1130Z. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES TOWARD 15Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 20-23Z. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER
00Z NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG ACROSS NRN NY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING THIS AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS NRN
NY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A FEW HRS LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY
HIGHS GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT BTV
AND VSF. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB
HEIGHT FALLS 15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO
500-800 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY
TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS
TO 60-80 PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH
BEST SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL
HEATING)...BUT A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY
REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL
WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM BTWN
11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS. A FEW
WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK...BASED ON
CRNT MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LIFR IN FOG/BR AND CIGS OVERCAST AROUND
100 FEET WILL PREVAIL AT SLK/MPV THROUGH 13Z.
OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL RACE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV...BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 5
TO 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT SLK/MPV OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME BR POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS NOT REACHING CROSS OVER
VALUES.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS. DRIER
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301440
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1040 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CURRENTLY ENCROACHING UPON SOUTHWESTERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY
AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, SPREADING AND LOWERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY, ALSO BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN HALF OF
AND NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 1130Z. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES TOWARD 15Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 20-23Z. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER
00Z NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG ACROSS NRN NY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING THIS AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS NRN
NY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A FEW HRS LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY
HIGHS GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT BTV
AND VSF. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB
HEIGHT FALLS 15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO
500-800 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY
TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS
TO 60-80 PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH
BEST SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL
HEATING)...BUT A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY
REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL
WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM BTWN
11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS. A FEW
WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK...BASED ON
CRNT MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LIFR IN FOG/BR AND CIGS OVERCAST AROUND
100 FEET WILL PREVAIL AT SLK/MPV THROUGH 13Z.
OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL RACE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV...BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 5
TO 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT SLK/MPV OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME BR POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS NOT REACHING CROSS OVER
VALUES.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS. DRIER
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KALY 301355
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
955 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRENDS IN SAELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST ALL THE REGION WILL BE CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AND ADVANCING TOWARD OUR REGION...BEGINNING TO AFFECT WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING
AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW MORE DETAILS ARE BELOW IN THE PREVIOUS AFD....

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE EAST END OF LAKE
ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT- WAVE TROUGH.
THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE- 00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KALY 301355
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
955 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRENDS IN SAELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST ALL THE REGION WILL BE CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AND ADVANCING TOWARD OUR REGION...BEGINNING TO AFFECT WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING
AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW MORE DETAILS ARE BELOW IN THE PREVIOUS AFD....

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE EAST END OF LAKE
ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT- WAVE TROUGH.
THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE- 00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 748 AM EDT TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN HALF OF
AND NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 1130Z.
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND
FRANKLIN NY COUNTIES TOWARD 15Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT
NEWD INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 20-23Z. INSTABILITY IS
RATHER WEAK PER 00Z NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG
ACROSS NRN NY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
TSTMS ACROSS NRN NY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A
FEW HRS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH
VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT
BTV AND VSF. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB HEIGHT FALLS
15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO 500-800 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY TO BE A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS TO 60-80
PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH BEST
SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL HEATING)...BUT A FEW
STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL
CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL
WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM
BTWN 11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND
LOWS RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS.
A FEW WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT
WEEK...BASED ON CRNT MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LIFR IN FOG/BR AND CIGS OVERCAST AROUND
100 FEET WILL PREVAIL AT SLK/MPV THROUGH 13Z.
OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL RACE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV...BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 5
TO 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT SLK/MPV OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME BR POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS NOT REACHING CROSS OVER
VALUES.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS. DRIER
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 748 AM EDT TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN HALF OF
AND NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 1130Z.
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND
FRANKLIN NY COUNTIES TOWARD 15Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT
NEWD INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 20-23Z. INSTABILITY IS
RATHER WEAK PER 00Z NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG
ACROSS NRN NY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
TSTMS ACROSS NRN NY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A
FEW HRS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH
VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT
BTV AND VSF. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB HEIGHT FALLS
15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO 500-800 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY TO BE A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS TO 60-80
PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH BEST
SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL HEATING)...BUT A FEW
STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL
CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL
WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM
BTWN 11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND
LOWS RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS.
A FEW WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT
WEEK...BASED ON CRNT MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LIFR IN FOG/BR AND CIGS OVERCAST AROUND
100 FEET WILL PREVAIL AT SLK/MPV THROUGH 13Z.
OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL RACE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV...BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 5
TO 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT SLK/MPV OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME BR POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS NOT REACHING CROSS OVER
VALUES.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS. DRIER
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 301149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 748 AM EDT TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN HALF OF
AND NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 1130Z.
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND
FRANKLIN NY COUNTIES TOWARD 15Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT
NEWD INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 20-23Z. INSTABILITY IS
RATHER WEAK PER 00Z NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG
ACROSS NRN NY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
TSTMS ACROSS NRN NY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A
FEW HRS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH
VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT
BTV AND VSF. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB HEIGHT FALLS
15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO 500-800 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY TO BE A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS TO 60-80
PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH BEST
SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL HEATING)...BUT A FEW
STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL
CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL
WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM
BTWN 11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND
LOWS RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS.
A FEW WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT
WEEK...BASED ON CRNT MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LIFR IN FOG/BR AND CIGS OVERCAST AROUND
100 FEET WILL PREVAIL AT SLK/MPV THROUGH 13Z.
OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL RACE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV...BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 5
TO 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT SLK/MPV OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME BR POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS NOT REACHING CROSS OVER
VALUES.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS. DRIER
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN NY AND
NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 0645Z. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES TOWARD 18Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 21-00Z. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER
NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG ACROSS NRN NY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A FEW HRS LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT BTV AND VSF.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB HEIGHT FALLS
15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO 500-800 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY TO BE A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS TO 60-80
PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH BEST
SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL HEATING)...BUT A FEW
STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL
CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL
WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM
BTWN 11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND
LOWS RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS.
A FEW WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT
WEEK...BASED ON CRNT MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LIFR IN FOG/BR AND CIGS OVERCAST AROUND
100 FEET WILL PREVAIL AT SLK/MPV THROUGH 13Z.
OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL RACE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV...BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 5
TO 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT SLK/MPV OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME BR POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS NOT REACHING CROSS OVER
VALUES.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS. DRIER
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN NY AND
NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 0645Z. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES TOWARD 18Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 21-00Z. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER
NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG ACROSS NRN NY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A FEW HRS LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT BTV AND VSF.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB HEIGHT FALLS
15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO 500-800 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY TO BE A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS TO 60-80
PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH BEST
SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL HEATING)...BUT A FEW
STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL
CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL
WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM
BTWN 11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND
LOWS RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS.
A FEW WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT
WEEK...BASED ON CRNT MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LIFR IN FOG/BR AND CIGS OVERCAST AROUND
100 FEET WILL PREVAIL AT SLK/MPV THROUGH 13Z.
OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL RACE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV...BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 5
TO 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT SLK/MPV OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME BR POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS NOT REACHING CROSS OVER
VALUES.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS. DRIER
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN NY AND
NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 0645Z. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES TOWARD 18Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 21-00Z. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER
NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG ACROSS NRN NY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A FEW HRS LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT BTV AND VSF.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB HEIGHT FALLS
15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO 500-800 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY TO BE A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS TO 60-80
PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH BEST
SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL HEATING)...BUT A FEW
STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL
CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL
WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM
BTWN 11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND
LOWS RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS.
A FEW WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT
WEEK...BASED ON CRNT MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LIFR IN FOG/BR AND CIGS OVERCAST AROUND
100 FEET WILL PREVAIL AT SLK/MPV THROUGH 13Z.
OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL RACE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV...BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 5
TO 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT SLK/MPV OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME BR POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS NOT REACHING CROSS OVER
VALUES.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS. DRIER
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN NY AND
NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 0645Z. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES TOWARD 18Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 21-00Z. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER
NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG ACROSS NRN NY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A FEW HRS LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT BTV AND VSF.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB HEIGHT FALLS
15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO 500-800 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY TO BE A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS TO 60-80
PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH BEST
SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL HEATING)...BUT A FEW
STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL
CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL
WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM
BTWN 11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND
LOWS RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS.
A FEW WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT
WEEK...BASED ON CRNT MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LIFR IN FOG/BR AND CIGS OVERCAST AROUND
100 FEET WILL PREVAIL AT SLK/MPV THROUGH 13Z.
OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL RACE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV...BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 5
TO 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT SLK/MPV OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME BR POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS NOT REACHING CROSS OVER
VALUES.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS. DRIER
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 301034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 301034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 301018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
618 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 301018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
618 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 301018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
618 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 301018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
618 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 301018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
618 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 301018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
618 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 300810
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING LAKE ERIE IS LIFTING A WARM
FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 300810
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING LAKE ERIE IS LIFTING A WARM
FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 300810
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING LAKE ERIE IS LIFTING A WARM
FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBTV 300727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN NY AND
NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 0645Z. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES TOWARD 18Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 21-00Z. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER
NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG ACROSS NRN NY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A FEW HRS LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT BTV AND VSF.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB HEIGHT FALLS
15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO 500-800 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY TO BE A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS TO 60-80
PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH BEST
SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL HEATING)...BUT A FEW
STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL
CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL
WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM
BTWN 11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND
LOWS RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS.
A FEW WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTME WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT
WEEK...BASED ON CRNT MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR AT OUR TAF SITES. CRNT IR SATL PIC SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IMPACTING BTV/RUT/MPV WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOG WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT SLK...WHICH WILL PREVAIL THRU 12Z
TUESDAY. THINKING VIS/FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL JUMP UP AND DOWN BTWN
VFR AND IFR AT PBG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AT
MSS/BTV BTWN 07Z-11Z. MPV WILL SLOWLY CLR WITH CROSS OVER TEMPS
BEING REACHED BY 07Z...WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BTWN 08Z AND
11Z THIS MORNING. FOG/BR WILL LIFT AT ALL SITES BY 12Z...WITH
INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BY 18Z...WITH SOUTH WINDS 6 TO
12 KNOTS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS.
DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN NY AND
NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 0645Z. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES TOWARD 18Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 21-00Z. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER
NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG ACROSS NRN NY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A FEW HRS LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT BTV AND VSF.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB HEIGHT FALLS
15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO 500-800 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY TO BE A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS TO 60-80
PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH BEST
SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL HEATING)...BUT A FEW
STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL
CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL
WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM
BTWN 11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND
LOWS RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS.
A FEW WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTME WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT
WEEK...BASED ON CRNT MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR AT OUR TAF SITES. CRNT IR SATL PIC SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IMPACTING BTV/RUT/MPV WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOG WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT SLK...WHICH WILL PREVAIL THRU 12Z
TUESDAY. THINKING VIS/FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL JUMP UP AND DOWN BTWN
VFR AND IFR AT PBG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AT
MSS/BTV BTWN 07Z-11Z. MPV WILL SLOWLY CLR WITH CROSS OVER TEMPS
BEING REACHED BY 07Z...WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BTWN 08Z AND
11Z THIS MORNING. FOG/BR WILL LIFT AT ALL SITES BY 12Z...WITH
INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BY 18Z...WITH SOUTH WINDS 6 TO
12 KNOTS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS.
DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN NY AND
NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 0645Z. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES TOWARD 18Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 21-00Z. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER
NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG ACROSS NRN NY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A FEW HRS LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT BTV AND VSF.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB HEIGHT FALLS
15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO 500-800 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY TO BE A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS TO 60-80
PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH BEST
SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL HEATING)...BUT A FEW
STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL
CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL
WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM
BTWN 11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND
LOWS RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS.
A FEW WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTME WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT
WEEK...BASED ON CRNT MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR AT OUR TAF SITES. CRNT IR SATL PIC SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IMPACTING BTV/RUT/MPV WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOG WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT SLK...WHICH WILL PREVAIL THRU 12Z
TUESDAY. THINKING VIS/FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL JUMP UP AND DOWN BTWN
VFR AND IFR AT PBG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AT
MSS/BTV BTWN 07Z-11Z. MPV WILL SLOWLY CLR WITH CROSS OVER TEMPS
BEING REACHED BY 07Z...WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BTWN 08Z AND
11Z THIS MORNING. FOG/BR WILL LIFT AT ALL SITES BY 12Z...WITH
INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BY 18Z...WITH SOUTH WINDS 6 TO
12 KNOTS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS.
DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN NY AND
NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 0645Z. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES TOWARD 18Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 21-00Z. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER
NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG ACROSS NRN NY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A FEW HRS LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT BTV AND VSF.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB HEIGHT FALLS
15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO 500-800 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY TO BE A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS TO 60-80
PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH BEST
SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL HEATING)...BUT A FEW
STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL
CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL
WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM
BTWN 11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND
LOWS RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS.
A FEW WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTME WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT
WEEK...BASED ON CRNT MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR AT OUR TAF SITES. CRNT IR SATL PIC SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IMPACTING BTV/RUT/MPV WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOG WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT SLK...WHICH WILL PREVAIL THRU 12Z
TUESDAY. THINKING VIS/FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL JUMP UP AND DOWN BTWN
VFR AND IFR AT PBG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AT
MSS/BTV BTWN 07Z-11Z. MPV WILL SLOWLY CLR WITH CROSS OVER TEMPS
BEING REACHED BY 07Z...WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BTWN 08Z AND
11Z THIS MORNING. FOG/BR WILL LIFT AT ALL SITES BY 12Z...WITH
INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BY 18Z...WITH SOUTH WINDS 6 TO
12 KNOTS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS.
DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300711
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
311 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN NY AND
NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 0645Z. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES TOWARD 18Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 21-00Z. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER
NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG ACROSS NRN NY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A FEW HRS LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT BTV AND VSF.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB HEIGHT FALLS
15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO 500-800 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY TO BE A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS TO 60-80
PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH BEST
SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL HEATING)...BUT A FEW
STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL
CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR AT OUR TAF SITES. CRNT IR SATL PIC SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IMPACTING BTV/RUT/MPV WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOG WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT SLK...WHICH WILL PREVAIL THRU 12Z
TUESDAY. THINKING VIS/FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL JUMP UP AND DOWN BTWN
VFR AND IFR AT PBG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AT
MSS/BTV BTWN 07Z-11Z. MPV WILL SLOWLY CLR WITH CROSS OVER TEMPS
BEING REACHED BY 07Z...WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BTWN 08Z AND
11Z THIS MORNING. FOG/BR WILL LIFT AT ALL SITES BY 12Z...WITH
INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BY 18Z...WITH SOUTH WINDS 6 TO
12 KNOTS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS.
DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 300711
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
311 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN NY AND
NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 0645Z. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES TOWARD 18Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 21-00Z. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER
NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG ACROSS NRN NY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A FEW HRS LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT BTV AND VSF.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB HEIGHT FALLS
15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO 500-800 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY TO BE A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS TO 60-80
PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH BEST
SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL HEATING)...BUT A FEW
STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL
CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR AT OUR TAF SITES. CRNT IR SATL PIC SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IMPACTING BTV/RUT/MPV WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOG WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT SLK...WHICH WILL PREVAIL THRU 12Z
TUESDAY. THINKING VIS/FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL JUMP UP AND DOWN BTWN
VFR AND IFR AT PBG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AT
MSS/BTV BTWN 07Z-11Z. MPV WILL SLOWLY CLR WITH CROSS OVER TEMPS
BEING REACHED BY 07Z...WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BTWN 08Z AND
11Z THIS MORNING. FOG/BR WILL LIFT AT ALL SITES BY 12Z...WITH
INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BY 18Z...WITH SOUTH WINDS 6 TO
12 KNOTS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS.
DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300711
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
311 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN NY AND
NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 0645Z. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES TOWARD 18Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 21-00Z. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER
NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG ACROSS NRN NY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A FEW HRS LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT BTV AND VSF.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB HEIGHT FALLS
15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO 500-800 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY TO BE A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS TO 60-80
PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH BEST
SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL HEATING)...BUT A FEW
STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL
CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR AT OUR TAF SITES. CRNT IR SATL PIC SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IMPACTING BTV/RUT/MPV WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOG WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT SLK...WHICH WILL PREVAIL THRU 12Z
TUESDAY. THINKING VIS/FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL JUMP UP AND DOWN BTWN
VFR AND IFR AT PBG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AT
MSS/BTV BTWN 07Z-11Z. MPV WILL SLOWLY CLR WITH CROSS OVER TEMPS
BEING REACHED BY 07Z...WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BTWN 08Z AND
11Z THIS MORNING. FOG/BR WILL LIFT AT ALL SITES BY 12Z...WITH
INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BY 18Z...WITH SOUTH WINDS 6 TO
12 KNOTS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS.
DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300711
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
311 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN NY AND
NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 0645Z. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES TOWARD 18Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 21-00Z. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER
NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG ACROSS NRN NY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A FEW HRS LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT BTV AND VSF.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB HEIGHT FALLS
15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO 500-800 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY TO BE A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS TO 60-80
PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH BEST
SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL HEATING)...BUT A FEW
STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL
CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR AT OUR TAF SITES. CRNT IR SATL PIC SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IMPACTING BTV/RUT/MPV WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOG WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT SLK...WHICH WILL PREVAIL THRU 12Z
TUESDAY. THINKING VIS/FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL JUMP UP AND DOWN BTWN
VFR AND IFR AT PBG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AT
MSS/BTV BTWN 07Z-11Z. MPV WILL SLOWLY CLR WITH CROSS OVER TEMPS
BEING REACHED BY 07Z...WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BTWN 08Z AND
11Z THIS MORNING. FOG/BR WILL LIFT AT ALL SITES BY 12Z...WITH
INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BY 18Z...WITH SOUTH WINDS 6 TO
12 KNOTS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS.
DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 300531
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...STRATUS AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT AT 05Z...BUT IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL ADVECT NEWD FROM WRN PA/S-CENTRAL NY INTO VERMONT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER OHIO. THIS CLOUD SHIELD
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND PATCHY
FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD GIVEN
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN OBSERVED FOG ACROSS
NRN NY WHERE SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR AND RADIATIVE COOLING HAS
BEEN ENHANCED. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED IN
THE LOW-MID 50S...BUT LOCALLY IN THE MID 40S WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS WITH BETTER RADIATIVE COOLING DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR AT OUR TAF SITES. CRNT IR SATL PIC SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IMPACTING BTV/RUT/MPV WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOG WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT SLK...WHICH WILL PREVAIL THRU 12Z
TUESDAY. THINKING VIS/FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL JUMP UP AND DOWN BTWN
VFR AND IFR AT PBG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AT
MSS/BTV BTWN 07Z-11Z. MPV WILL SLOWLY CLR WITH CROSS OVER TEMPS
BEING REACHED BY 07Z...WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BTWN 08Z AND
11Z THIS MORNING. FOG/BR WILL LIFT AT ALL SITES BY 12Z...WITH
INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BY 18Z...WITH SOUTH WINDS 6 TO
12 KNOTS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS.
DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 300531
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...STRATUS AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT AT 05Z...BUT IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL ADVECT NEWD FROM WRN PA/S-CENTRAL NY INTO VERMONT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER OHIO. THIS CLOUD SHIELD
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND PATCHY
FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD GIVEN
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN OBSERVED FOG ACROSS
NRN NY WHERE SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR AND RADIATIVE COOLING HAS
BEEN ENHANCED. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED IN
THE LOW-MID 50S...BUT LOCALLY IN THE MID 40S WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS WITH BETTER RADIATIVE COOLING DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR AT OUR TAF SITES. CRNT IR SATL PIC SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IMPACTING BTV/RUT/MPV WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOG WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT SLK...WHICH WILL PREVAIL THRU 12Z
TUESDAY. THINKING VIS/FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL JUMP UP AND DOWN BTWN
VFR AND IFR AT PBG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AT
MSS/BTV BTWN 07Z-11Z. MPV WILL SLOWLY CLR WITH CROSS OVER TEMPS
BEING REACHED BY 07Z...WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BTWN 08Z AND
11Z THIS MORNING. FOG/BR WILL LIFT AT ALL SITES BY 12Z...WITH
INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BY 18Z...WITH SOUTH WINDS 6 TO
12 KNOTS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS.
DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 300514
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE THIRD SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE
LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY
DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER
IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 300514
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE THIRD SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE
LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY
DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER
IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 300514
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE THIRD SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE
LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY
DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER
IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 300514
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE THIRD SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE
LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY
DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER
IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 300514
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE THIRD SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE
LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY
DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER
IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBTV 300507
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
107 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...STRATUS AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT AT 05Z...BUT IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL ADVECT NEWD FROM WRN PA/S-CENTRAL NY INTO VERMONT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER OHIO. THIS CLOUD SHIELD
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND PATCHY
FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD GIVEN
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN OBSERVED FOG ACROSS
NRN NY WHERE SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR AND RADIATIVE COOLING HAS
BEEN ENHANCED. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED IN
THE LOW-MID 50S...BUT LOCALLY IN THE MID 40S WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS WITH BETTER RADIATIVE COOLING DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/BR
EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK...WITH VFR AREA-WIDE FOR
MOST OF TUESDAY.

SLOWLY EXITING LOW/MID CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BETWEEN 00Z AND
05Z. ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AT
FL250. THIS GENERAL CLEARING...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...RECENT RAIN...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG
WILL BE AT MPV/SLK...WITH A PERIOD ALSO LIKELY AT PBG. MSS ALSO
MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME MVFR BR. BTV/RUT NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS BY AROUND 12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
AREA-WIDE. AFTER 17-18Z...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR...SOME BRIEF WINDOWS OF
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT...TURNING TO THE
SOUTH FROM 5-10 TO KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 300507
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
107 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...STRATUS AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT AT 05Z...BUT IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL ADVECT NEWD FROM WRN PA/S-CENTRAL NY INTO VERMONT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER OHIO. THIS CLOUD SHIELD
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND PATCHY
FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD GIVEN
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN OBSERVED FOG ACROSS
NRN NY WHERE SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR AND RADIATIVE COOLING HAS
BEEN ENHANCED. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED IN
THE LOW-MID 50S...BUT LOCALLY IN THE MID 40S WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS WITH BETTER RADIATIVE COOLING DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/BR
EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK...WITH VFR AREA-WIDE FOR
MOST OF TUESDAY.

SLOWLY EXITING LOW/MID CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BETWEEN 00Z AND
05Z. ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AT
FL250. THIS GENERAL CLEARING...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...RECENT RAIN...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG
WILL BE AT MPV/SLK...WITH A PERIOD ALSO LIKELY AT PBG. MSS ALSO
MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME MVFR BR. BTV/RUT NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS BY AROUND 12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
AREA-WIDE. AFTER 17-18Z...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR...SOME BRIEF WINDOWS OF
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT...TURNING TO THE
SOUTH FROM 5-10 TO KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300507
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
107 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...STRATUS AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT AT 05Z...BUT IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL ADVECT NEWD FROM WRN PA/S-CENTRAL NY INTO VERMONT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER OHIO. THIS CLOUD SHIELD
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND PATCHY
FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD GIVEN
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN OBSERVED FOG ACROSS
NRN NY WHERE SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR AND RADIATIVE COOLING HAS
BEEN ENHANCED. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED IN
THE LOW-MID 50S...BUT LOCALLY IN THE MID 40S WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS WITH BETTER RADIATIVE COOLING DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/BR
EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK...WITH VFR AREA-WIDE FOR
MOST OF TUESDAY.

SLOWLY EXITING LOW/MID CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BETWEEN 00Z AND
05Z. ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AT
FL250. THIS GENERAL CLEARING...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...RECENT RAIN...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG
WILL BE AT MPV/SLK...WITH A PERIOD ALSO LIKELY AT PBG. MSS ALSO
MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME MVFR BR. BTV/RUT NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS BY AROUND 12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
AREA-WIDE. AFTER 17-18Z...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR...SOME BRIEF WINDOWS OF
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT...TURNING TO THE
SOUTH FROM 5-10 TO KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 300507
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
107 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...STRATUS AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT AT 05Z...BUT IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL ADVECT NEWD FROM WRN PA/S-CENTRAL NY INTO VERMONT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER OHIO. THIS CLOUD SHIELD
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND PATCHY
FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD GIVEN
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN OBSERVED FOG ACROSS
NRN NY WHERE SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR AND RADIATIVE COOLING HAS
BEEN ENHANCED. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED IN
THE LOW-MID 50S...BUT LOCALLY IN THE MID 40S WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS WITH BETTER RADIATIVE COOLING DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/BR
EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK...WITH VFR AREA-WIDE FOR
MOST OF TUESDAY.

SLOWLY EXITING LOW/MID CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BETWEEN 00Z AND
05Z. ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AT
FL250. THIS GENERAL CLEARING...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...RECENT RAIN...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG
WILL BE AT MPV/SLK...WITH A PERIOD ALSO LIKELY AT PBG. MSS ALSO
MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME MVFR BR. BTV/RUT NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS BY AROUND 12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
AREA-WIDE. AFTER 17-18Z...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR...SOME BRIEF WINDOWS OF
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT...TURNING TO THE
SOUTH FROM 5-10 TO KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 300422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE THIRD SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE
LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY
DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER
IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 300422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE THIRD SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE
LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY
DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER
IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBTV 300245
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
THAT WERE AROUND THE REGION EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED
PER LATEST RADAR LOOP. HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND 18Z
GFS MOS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/BR
EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK...WITH VFR AREA-WIDE FOR
MOST OF TUESDAY.

SLOWLY EXITING LOW/MID CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BETWEEN 00Z AND
05Z. ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AT
FL250. THIS GENERAL CLEARING...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...RECENT RAIN...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG
WILL BE AT MPV/SLK...WITH A PERIOD ALSO LIKELY AT PBG. MSS ALSO
MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME MVFR BR. BTV/RUT NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS BY AROUND 12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
AREA-WIDE. AFTER 17-18Z...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR...SOME BRIEF WINDOWS OF
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT...TURNING TO THE
SOUTH FROM 5-10 TO KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 300245
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
THAT WERE AROUND THE REGION EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED
PER LATEST RADAR LOOP. HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND 18Z
GFS MOS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/BR
EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK...WITH VFR AREA-WIDE FOR
MOST OF TUESDAY.

SLOWLY EXITING LOW/MID CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BETWEEN 00Z AND
05Z. ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AT
FL250. THIS GENERAL CLEARING...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...RECENT RAIN...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG
WILL BE AT MPV/SLK...WITH A PERIOD ALSO LIKELY AT PBG. MSS ALSO
MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME MVFR BR. BTV/RUT NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS BY AROUND 12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
AREA-WIDE. AFTER 17-18Z...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR...SOME BRIEF WINDOWS OF
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT...TURNING TO THE
SOUTH FROM 5-10 TO KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 300128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
928 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE
MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 300128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
928 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE
MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 300128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
928 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE
MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 300128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
928 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE
MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 300032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
832 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE
MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 300032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
832 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE
MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 300032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
832 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE
MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 300032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
832 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD
FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT
SHOWERS...BUT THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE
MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG. HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AT KGFL AND KPSF SO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE ARE CHANCES OF FOG
AT KALB AND KPOU BUT WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE FOG THE DOES FORM
IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 12-13Z.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY. USED VICINITY SHOWER TO ADDRESS
THREAT IN TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 292342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITHIN THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD STILL LOOKS GOOD
...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 333 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD
TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SLIDES
EAST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS BEFORE A WARM FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS, SOME CLEARING AND
MOIST CONDITIONS, EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/BR
EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK...WITH VFR AREA-WIDE FOR
MOST OF TUESDAY.

SLOWLY EXITING LOW/MID CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BETWEEN 00Z AND
05Z. ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AT
FL250. THIS GENERAL CLEARING...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...RECENT RAIN...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG
WILL BE AT MPV/SLK...WITH A PERIOD ALSO LIKELY AT PBG. MSS ALSO
MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME MVFR BR. BTV/RUT NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS BY AROUND 12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
AREA-WIDE. AFTER 17-18Z...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR...SOME BRIEF WINDOWS OF
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT...TURNING TO THE
SOUTH FROM 5-10 TO KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 292342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITHIN THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD STILL LOOKS GOOD
...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 333 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD
TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SLIDES
EAST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS BEFORE A WARM FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS, SOME CLEARING AND
MOIST CONDITIONS, EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/BR
EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK...WITH VFR AREA-WIDE FOR
MOST OF TUESDAY.

SLOWLY EXITING LOW/MID CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BETWEEN 00Z AND
05Z. ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AT
FL250. THIS GENERAL CLEARING...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...RECENT RAIN...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG
WILL BE AT MPV/SLK...WITH A PERIOD ALSO LIKELY AT PBG. MSS ALSO
MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME MVFR BR. BTV/RUT NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS BY AROUND 12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
AREA-WIDE. AFTER 17-18Z...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR...SOME BRIEF WINDOWS OF
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT...TURNING TO THE
SOUTH FROM 5-10 TO KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 292342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITHIN THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD STILL LOOKS GOOD
...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 333 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD
TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SLIDES
EAST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS BEFORE A WARM FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS, SOME CLEARING AND
MOIST CONDITIONS, EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/BR
EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK...WITH VFR AREA-WIDE FOR
MOST OF TUESDAY.

SLOWLY EXITING LOW/MID CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BETWEEN 00Z AND
05Z. ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AT
FL250. THIS GENERAL CLEARING...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...RECENT RAIN...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG
WILL BE AT MPV/SLK...WITH A PERIOD ALSO LIKELY AT PBG. MSS ALSO
MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME MVFR BR. BTV/RUT NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS BY AROUND 12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
AREA-WIDE. AFTER 17-18Z...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR...SOME BRIEF WINDOWS OF
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT...TURNING TO THE
SOUTH FROM 5-10 TO KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 292342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITHIN THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD STILL LOOKS GOOD
...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 333 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD
TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SLIDES
EAST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS BEFORE A WARM FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS, SOME CLEARING AND
MOIST CONDITIONS, EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/BR
EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK...WITH VFR AREA-WIDE FOR
MOST OF TUESDAY.

SLOWLY EXITING LOW/MID CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BETWEEN 00Z AND
05Z. ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AT
FL250. THIS GENERAL CLEARING...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...RECENT RAIN...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG
WILL BE AT MPV/SLK...WITH A PERIOD ALSO LIKELY AT PBG. MSS ALSO
MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME MVFR BR. BTV/RUT NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS BY AROUND 12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
AREA-WIDE. AFTER 17-18Z...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR...SOME BRIEF WINDOWS OF
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT...TURNING TO THE
SOUTH FROM 5-10 TO KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 292342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITHIN THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD STILL LOOKS GOOD
...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 333 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD
TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SLIDES
EAST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS BEFORE A WARM FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS, SOME CLEARING AND
MOIST CONDITIONS, EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/BR
EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK...WITH VFR AREA-WIDE FOR
MOST OF TUESDAY.

SLOWLY EXITING LOW/MID CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BETWEEN 00Z AND
05Z. ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AT
FL250. THIS GENERAL CLEARING...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...RECENT RAIN...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG
WILL BE AT MPV/SLK...WITH A PERIOD ALSO LIKELY AT PBG. MSS ALSO
MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME MVFR BR. BTV/RUT NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS BY AROUND 12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
AREA-WIDE. AFTER 17-18Z...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR...SOME BRIEF WINDOWS OF
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT...TURNING TO THE
SOUTH FROM 5-10 TO KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 292342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITHIN THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD STILL LOOKS GOOD
...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 333 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD
TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SLIDES
EAST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS BEFORE A WARM FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS, SOME CLEARING AND
MOIST CONDITIONS, EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/BR
EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK...WITH VFR AREA-WIDE FOR
MOST OF TUESDAY.

SLOWLY EXITING LOW/MID CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BETWEEN 00Z AND
05Z. ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AT
FL250. THIS GENERAL CLEARING...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...RECENT RAIN...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG
WILL BE AT MPV/SLK...WITH A PERIOD ALSO LIKELY AT PBG. MSS ALSO
MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME MVFR BR. BTV/RUT NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS BY AROUND 12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
AREA-WIDE. AFTER 17-18Z...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR...SOME BRIEF WINDOWS OF
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT...TURNING TO THE
SOUTH FROM 5-10 TO KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 292333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SLIDES EAST. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS, SOME CLEARING AND MOIST CONDITIONS,
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/BR
EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK...WITH VFR AREA-WIDE FOR
MOST OF TUESDAY.

SLOWLY EXITING LOW/MID CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BETWEEN 00Z AND
05Z. ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AT
FL250. THIS GENERAL CLEARING...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...RECENT RAIN...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG
WILL BE AT MPV/SLK...WITH A PERIOD ALSO LIKELY AT PBG. MSS ALSO
MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME MVFR BR. BTV/RUT NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS BY AROUND 12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
AREA-WIDE. AFTER 17-18Z...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR...SOME BRIEF WINDOWS OF
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT...TURNING TO THE
SOUTH FROM 5-10 TO KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 292333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SLIDES EAST. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS, SOME CLEARING AND MOIST CONDITIONS,
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/BR
EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK...WITH VFR AREA-WIDE FOR
MOST OF TUESDAY.

SLOWLY EXITING LOW/MID CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BETWEEN 00Z AND
05Z. ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AT
FL250. THIS GENERAL CLEARING...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...RECENT RAIN...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG
WILL BE AT MPV/SLK...WITH A PERIOD ALSO LIKELY AT PBG. MSS ALSO
MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME MVFR BR. BTV/RUT NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS BY AROUND 12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
AREA-WIDE. AFTER 17-18Z...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR...SOME BRIEF WINDOWS OF
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT...TURNING TO THE
SOUTH FROM 5-10 TO KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 292134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
534 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SLIDES EAST. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS, SOME CLEARING AND MOIST CONDITIONS,
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...AS MVFR CIGS BECOME VFR BY 21Z. THE COMBINATION
OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY 21Z...WITH SKIES COMPLETELY
CLEARING BY 02Z THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. THINKING LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM AND CIGS OVERCAST AT 100 FEET WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z AT MPV/SLK. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS
CROSS OVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AT BOTH SITES. WILL USE A TEMPO
GROUP AT PBG/MSS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...AS PROGGED 975MB WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND PREVENT THICK FOG
FROM DEVELOPING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BTV...BUT HAVE TEMPO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIOD OF LOW VIS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG
EXPECTED BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. FOG AND ASSOCIATED VIS/CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE AT ALL SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT 4 TO
8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY AFTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON
WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS
AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORNING FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 292134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
534 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SLIDES EAST. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS, SOME CLEARING AND MOIST CONDITIONS,
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...AS MVFR CIGS BECOME VFR BY 21Z. THE COMBINATION
OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY 21Z...WITH SKIES COMPLETELY
CLEARING BY 02Z THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. THINKING LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM AND CIGS OVERCAST AT 100 FEET WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z AT MPV/SLK. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS
CROSS OVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AT BOTH SITES. WILL USE A TEMPO
GROUP AT PBG/MSS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...AS PROGGED 975MB WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND PREVENT THICK FOG
FROM DEVELOPING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BTV...BUT HAVE TEMPO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIOD OF LOW VIS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG
EXPECTED BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. FOG AND ASSOCIATED VIS/CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE AT ALL SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT 4 TO
8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY AFTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON
WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS
AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORNING FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 292029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 429 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WELL
AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY. THE ISOLATED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL...AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY.
THE SKIES WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR BRIEFLY...BUT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT
THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 292029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 429 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WELL
AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY. THE ISOLATED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL...AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY.
THE SKIES WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR BRIEFLY...BUT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT
THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 292029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 429 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WELL
AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY. THE ISOLATED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL...AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY.
THE SKIES WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR BRIEFLY...BUT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT
THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 292029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 429 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WELL
AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY. THE ISOLATED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL...AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY.
THE SKIES WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR BRIEFLY...BUT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT
THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 292028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 428 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WELL
AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY. THE ISOLATED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL...AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY.
THE SKIES WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR BRIEFLY...BUT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT
THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 292028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 428 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WELL
AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY. THE ISOLATED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL...AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY.
THE SKIES WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR BRIEFLY...BUT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT
THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 292028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 428 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WELL
AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY. THE ISOLATED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL...AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY.
THE SKIES WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR BRIEFLY...BUT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT
THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 292028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 428 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WELL
AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY. THE ISOLATED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL...AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND BRIEFLY.
THE SKIES WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR BRIEFLY...BUT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASED OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THE SFC LOW TIED TO THE SHORT-WAVE WILL BE LIFTING N/NE TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS...BUT
THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA LATER IN THE MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND NEAR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW THE
PATCHY FOG TO FORM. FROM THE THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST IT
WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO THE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE NEAR THE CT
RIVER VALLEY IN SRN VT...WHERE SOME U40S TO L50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE WEAK SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE BEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SETS UP WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INITIALLY...BUT THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SFC WITH A S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS...AND
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...THAT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST. THE
SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE-00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. AGAIN THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO ERN PA...AND CNTRL NY...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTH AND WEST DURING
THE MID TO LATE PM. SLIGHT OR LOW CHC VALUES WERE KEPT SOUTH AND
EAST.

IN TERMS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIMITED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH SOME HIGHER POCKETS TO 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WRN DACKS AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AGREE WITH THE SPC
DAY 2 WHERE GENERAL THUNDER IS FCST FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY /THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO/...
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MAINLY 30-40 KTS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-
WAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND
NEAR THE FCST AREA...WITH SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE
MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE SOME M50S TO AROUND 60F
READINGS ARE LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK. A SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC
WILL BE THE KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY
SITUATIONS THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
VALUES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
NAM IS VERY SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES
STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO
6.5-7.0 C/KM FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED
SEVERE IF HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO THE ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE
OLD DAY 3 MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON
WED WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY
WITH U60S TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
INTERVALS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN PERIODS OF WEAK FRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR WETTING WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.  BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED FEATURES...AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.  POPCORN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR.

THE HEAT WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN
OF PATCHY MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES...OCCASIONALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AT KPSF BETWEEN
18Z-20Z FOR BRIEF CEILING REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z WITH VCSH PLACED IN
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES
TO RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SLIDES EAST. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS, SOME CLEARING AND MOIST CONDITIONS,
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...AS MVFR CIGS BECOME VFR BY 21Z. THE COMBINATION
OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY 21Z...WITH SKIES COMPLETELY
CLEARING BY 02Z THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. THINKING LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM AND CIGS OVERCAST AT 100 FEET WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z AT MPV/SLK. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS
CROSS OVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AT BOTH SITES. WILL USE A TEMPO
GROUP AT PBG/MSS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...AS PROGGED 975MB WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND PREVENT THICK FOG
FROM DEVELOPING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BTV...BUT HAVE TEMPO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIOD OF LOW VIS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG
EXPECTED BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. FOG AND ASSOCIATED VIS/CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE AT ALL SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT 4 TO
8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY AFTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON
WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS
AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORNING FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET
AT MONTPELIER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE
RECORDS AT BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD WILL BE APPROACHED.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.92 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT.
MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS
BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF
MIDNIGHT 06/29.

AT 8.62 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.30 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 291933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SLIDES EAST. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS, SOME CLEARING AND MOIST CONDITIONS,
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...AS MVFR CIGS BECOME VFR BY 21Z. THE COMBINATION
OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY 21Z...WITH SKIES COMPLETELY
CLEARING BY 02Z THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. THINKING LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM AND CIGS OVERCAST AT 100 FEET WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z AT MPV/SLK. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS
CROSS OVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AT BOTH SITES. WILL USE A TEMPO
GROUP AT PBG/MSS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...AS PROGGED 975MB WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND PREVENT THICK FOG
FROM DEVELOPING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BTV...BUT HAVE TEMPO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIOD OF LOW VIS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG
EXPECTED BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. FOG AND ASSOCIATED VIS/CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE AT ALL SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT 4 TO
8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY AFTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON
WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS
AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORNING FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET
AT MONTPELIER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE
RECORDS AT BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD WILL BE APPROACHED.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.92 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT.
MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS
BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF
MIDNIGHT 06/29.

AT 8.62 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.30 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 291933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SLIDES EAST. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS, SOME CLEARING AND MOIST CONDITIONS,
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...AS MVFR CIGS BECOME VFR BY 21Z. THE COMBINATION
OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY 21Z...WITH SKIES COMPLETELY
CLEARING BY 02Z THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. THINKING LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM AND CIGS OVERCAST AT 100 FEET WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z AT MPV/SLK. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS
CROSS OVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AT BOTH SITES. WILL USE A TEMPO
GROUP AT PBG/MSS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...AS PROGGED 975MB WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND PREVENT THICK FOG
FROM DEVELOPING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BTV...BUT HAVE TEMPO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIOD OF LOW VIS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG
EXPECTED BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. FOG AND ASSOCIATED VIS/CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE AT ALL SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT 4 TO
8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY AFTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON
WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS
AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORNING FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET
AT MONTPELIER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE
RECORDS AT BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD WILL BE APPROACHED.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.92 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT.
MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS
BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF
MIDNIGHT 06/29.

AT 8.62 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.30 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 291933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SLIDES EAST. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS, SOME CLEARING AND MOIST CONDITIONS,
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...AS MVFR CIGS BECOME VFR BY 21Z. THE COMBINATION
OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY 21Z...WITH SKIES COMPLETELY
CLEARING BY 02Z THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. THINKING LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM AND CIGS OVERCAST AT 100 FEET WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z AT MPV/SLK. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS
CROSS OVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AT BOTH SITES. WILL USE A TEMPO
GROUP AT PBG/MSS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...AS PROGGED 975MB WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND PREVENT THICK FOG
FROM DEVELOPING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BTV...BUT HAVE TEMPO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIOD OF LOW VIS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG
EXPECTED BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. FOG AND ASSOCIATED VIS/CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE AT ALL SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT 4 TO
8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY AFTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON
WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS
AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORNING FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET
AT MONTPELIER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE
RECORDS AT BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD WILL BE APPROACHED.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.92 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT.
MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS
BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF
MIDNIGHT 06/29.

AT 8.62 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.30 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 291933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SLIDES EAST. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS, SOME CLEARING AND MOIST CONDITIONS,
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...AS MVFR CIGS BECOME VFR BY 21Z. THE COMBINATION
OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY 21Z...WITH SKIES COMPLETELY
CLEARING BY 02Z THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. THINKING LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM AND CIGS OVERCAST AT 100 FEET WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z AT MPV/SLK. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS
CROSS OVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AT BOTH SITES. WILL USE A TEMPO
GROUP AT PBG/MSS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...AS PROGGED 975MB WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND PREVENT THICK FOG
FROM DEVELOPING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BTV...BUT HAVE TEMPO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIOD OF LOW VIS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG
EXPECTED BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. FOG AND ASSOCIATED VIS/CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE AT ALL SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT 4 TO
8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY AFTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON
WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS
AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORNING FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET
AT MONTPELIER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE
RECORDS AT BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD WILL BE APPROACHED.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.92 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT.
MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS
BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF
MIDNIGHT 06/29.

AT 8.62 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.30 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SLIDES EAST. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS, SOME CLEARING AND MOIST CONDITIONS,
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...AS MVFR CIGS BECOME VFR BY 21Z. THE COMBINATION
OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY 21Z...WITH SKIES COMPLETELY
CLEARING BY 02Z THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. THINKING LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM AND CIGS OVERCAST AT 100 FEET WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z AT MPV/SLK. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS
CROSS OVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AT BOTH SITES. WILL USE A TEMPO
GROUP AT PBG/MSS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...AS PROGGED 975MB WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND PREVENT THICK FOG
FROM DEVELOPING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BTV...BUT HAVE TEMPO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIOD OF LOW VIS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG
EXPECTED BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. FOG AND ASSOCIATED VIS/CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE AT ALL SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT 4 TO
8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY AFTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON
WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS
AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORNING FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET
AT MONTPELIER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE
RECORDS AT BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD WILL BE APPROACHED.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.92 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT.
MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS
BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF
MIDNIGHT 06/29.

AT 8.62 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.30 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SLIDES EAST. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS, SOME CLEARING AND MOIST CONDITIONS,
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...AS MVFR CIGS BECOME VFR BY 21Z. THE COMBINATION
OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY 21Z...WITH SKIES COMPLETELY
CLEARING BY 02Z THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. THINKING LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM AND CIGS OVERCAST AT 100 FEET WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z AT MPV/SLK. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS
CROSS OVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AT BOTH SITES. WILL USE A TEMPO
GROUP AT PBG/MSS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...AS PROGGED 975MB WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND PREVENT THICK FOG
FROM DEVELOPING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BTV...BUT HAVE TEMPO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIOD OF LOW VIS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG
EXPECTED BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. FOG AND ASSOCIATED VIS/CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE AT ALL SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT 4 TO
8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY AFTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON
WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS
AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORNING FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET
AT MONTPELIER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE
RECORDS AT BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD WILL BE APPROACHED.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.92 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT.
MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS
BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF
MIDNIGHT 06/29.

AT 8.62 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.30 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SLIDES EAST. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS, SOME CLEARING AND MOIST CONDITIONS,
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...AS MVFR CIGS BECOME VFR BY 21Z. THE COMBINATION
OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY 21Z...WITH SKIES COMPLETELY
CLEARING BY 02Z THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. THINKING LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM AND CIGS OVERCAST AT 100 FEET WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z AT MPV/SLK. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS
CROSS OVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AT BOTH SITES. WILL USE A TEMPO
GROUP AT PBG/MSS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...AS PROGGED 975MB WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND PREVENT THICK FOG
FROM DEVELOPING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BTV...BUT HAVE TEMPO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIOD OF LOW VIS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG
EXPECTED BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. FOG AND ASSOCIATED VIS/CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE AT ALL SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT 4 TO
8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY AFTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON
WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS
AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORNING FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET
AT MONTPELIER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE
RECORDS AT BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD WILL BE APPROACHED.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.92 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT.
MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS
BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF
MIDNIGHT 06/29.

AT 8.62 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.30 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
256 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION, LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL TREND TOWARDS DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR
FLOODING. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 148 PM EDT MONDAY...FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT
THE NORTH COUNTRY, MAINLY ACROSS THE GREENS AND AREAS WEST. SOME
OF THESE MAY JUST END UP AS VIRGA, AS THE T-TD SPREAD CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
OVERALL CLOUDS THINNING, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PERSISTENT
BETWEEN 020-050.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT MONDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS GOING CALM AND SKIES GOING PARTLY
CLOUDY. DON`T EXPECT US TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY AS WE REMAIN IN A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BUT WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
CALM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IT`S A GOOD BET FOR SOME LOCALLY DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCALES. THE TREND OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES AS WELL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

CONDITIONS BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AS THE FIRST OF
TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEK
COMES AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDING WARM FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH, BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY REAL STRONG STORMS. TEMPS FINALLY RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +10-12C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE 70S. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
TUESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY. FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. BTV CWA WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.5" AND GROWING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS CAPES 800-1200
J/KG DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY ALONG WITH LI`S AROUND -4 AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS. AS IT HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT WHICH WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INSTABILITY, BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WINDOW FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WHICH
COULD CREATE SOME HYDRO CONCERNS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGH
WATER FLOWS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING MID/UPPER
LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR THURSDAY...WITH
LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. LATEST GFS
IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ON THURSDAY.
GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AND
POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW
CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS OF VT ON THURSDAY.
OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT. GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND
RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN
POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS
WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE
PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S
WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER
80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...AS MVFR CIGS BECOME VFR BY 21Z. THE COMBINATION
OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY 21Z...WITH SKIES COMPLETELY
CLEARING BY 02Z THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. THINKING LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM AND CIGS OVERCAST AT 100 FEET WILL
DEVELOP BTWN 04Z AND 06Z AT MPV/SLK. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS CROSS
OVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AT BOTH SITES. WILL USE A TEMPO GROUP
AT PBG/MSS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...AS PROGGED 975MB WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KNOTS MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND PREVENT THICK FOG FROM
DEVELOPING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BTV...BUT HAVE TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIOD OF LOW VIS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG
EXPECTED BTWN 07Z-10Z. FOG AND ASSOCIATED VIS/CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
AT ALL SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY AFTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON
WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON.
DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET
AT MONTPELIER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE
RECORDS AT BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD WILL BE APPROACHED.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.92 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT.
MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS
BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF
MIDNIGHT 06/29.

AT 8.62 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.30 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 291856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
256 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION, LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL TREND TOWARDS DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR
FLOODING. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 148 PM EDT MONDAY...FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT
THE NORTH COUNTRY, MAINLY ACROSS THE GREENS AND AREAS WEST. SOME
OF THESE MAY JUST END UP AS VIRGA, AS THE T-TD SPREAD CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
OVERALL CLOUDS THINNING, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PERSISTENT
BETWEEN 020-050.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT MONDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS GOING CALM AND SKIES GOING PARTLY
CLOUDY. DON`T EXPECT US TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY AS WE REMAIN IN A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BUT WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
CALM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IT`S A GOOD BET FOR SOME LOCALLY DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCALES. THE TREND OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES AS WELL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

CONDITIONS BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AS THE FIRST OF
TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEK
COMES AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDING WARM FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH, BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY REAL STRONG STORMS. TEMPS FINALLY RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +10-12C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE 70S. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
TUESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY. FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. BTV CWA WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.5" AND GROWING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS CAPES 800-1200
J/KG DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY ALONG WITH LI`S AROUND -4 AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS. AS IT HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT WHICH WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INSTABILITY, BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WINDOW FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WHICH
COULD CREATE SOME HYDRO CONCERNS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGH
WATER FLOWS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING MID/UPPER
LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR THURSDAY...WITH
LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. LATEST GFS
IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ON THURSDAY.
GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AND
POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW
CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS OF VT ON THURSDAY.
OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT. GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND
RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN
POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS
WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE
PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S
WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER
80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...AS MVFR CIGS BECOME VFR BY 21Z. THE COMBINATION
OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY 21Z...WITH SKIES COMPLETELY
CLEARING BY 02Z THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. THINKING LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM AND CIGS OVERCAST AT 100 FEET WILL
DEVELOP BTWN 04Z AND 06Z AT MPV/SLK. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS CROSS
OVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AT BOTH SITES. WILL USE A TEMPO GROUP
AT PBG/MSS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...AS PROGGED 975MB WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KNOTS MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND PREVENT THICK FOG FROM
DEVELOPING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BTV...BUT HAVE TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIOD OF LOW VIS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG
EXPECTED BTWN 07Z-10Z. FOG AND ASSOCIATED VIS/CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
AT ALL SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY AFTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON
WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON.
DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET
AT MONTPELIER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE
RECORDS AT BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD WILL BE APPROACHED.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.92 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT.
MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS
BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF
MIDNIGHT 06/29.

AT 8.62 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.30 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 291856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
256 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION, LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL TREND TOWARDS DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR
FLOODING. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 148 PM EDT MONDAY...FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT
THE NORTH COUNTRY, MAINLY ACROSS THE GREENS AND AREAS WEST. SOME
OF THESE MAY JUST END UP AS VIRGA, AS THE T-TD SPREAD CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
OVERALL CLOUDS THINNING, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PERSISTENT
BETWEEN 020-050.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT MONDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS GOING CALM AND SKIES GOING PARTLY
CLOUDY. DON`T EXPECT US TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY AS WE REMAIN IN A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BUT WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
CALM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IT`S A GOOD BET FOR SOME LOCALLY DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCALES. THE TREND OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES AS WELL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

CONDITIONS BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AS THE FIRST OF
TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEK
COMES AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDING WARM FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH, BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY REAL STRONG STORMS. TEMPS FINALLY RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +10-12C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE 70S. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
TUESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY. FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. BTV CWA WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.5" AND GROWING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS CAPES 800-1200
J/KG DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY ALONG WITH LI`S AROUND -4 AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS. AS IT HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT WHICH WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INSTABILITY, BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WINDOW FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WHICH
COULD CREATE SOME HYDRO CONCERNS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGH
WATER FLOWS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING MID/UPPER
LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR THURSDAY...WITH
LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. LATEST GFS
IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ON THURSDAY.
GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AND
POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW
CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS OF VT ON THURSDAY.
OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT. GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND
RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN
POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS
WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE
PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S
WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER
80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...AS MVFR CIGS BECOME VFR BY 21Z. THE COMBINATION
OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY 21Z...WITH SKIES COMPLETELY
CLEARING BY 02Z THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. THINKING LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM AND CIGS OVERCAST AT 100 FEET WILL
DEVELOP BTWN 04Z AND 06Z AT MPV/SLK. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS CROSS
OVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AT BOTH SITES. WILL USE A TEMPO GROUP
AT PBG/MSS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...AS PROGGED 975MB WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KNOTS MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND PREVENT THICK FOG FROM
DEVELOPING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BTV...BUT HAVE TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIOD OF LOW VIS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG
EXPECTED BTWN 07Z-10Z. FOG AND ASSOCIATED VIS/CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
AT ALL SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY AFTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON
WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON.
DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET
AT MONTPELIER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE
RECORDS AT BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD WILL BE APPROACHED.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.92 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT.
MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS
BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF
MIDNIGHT 06/29.

AT 8.62 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.30 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 291856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
256 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION, LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL TREND TOWARDS DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR
FLOODING. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 148 PM EDT MONDAY...FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT
THE NORTH COUNTRY, MAINLY ACROSS THE GREENS AND AREAS WEST. SOME
OF THESE MAY JUST END UP AS VIRGA, AS THE T-TD SPREAD CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
OVERALL CLOUDS THINNING, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PERSISTENT
BETWEEN 020-050.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT MONDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS GOING CALM AND SKIES GOING PARTLY
CLOUDY. DON`T EXPECT US TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY AS WE REMAIN IN A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BUT WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
CALM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IT`S A GOOD BET FOR SOME LOCALLY DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCALES. THE TREND OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES AS WELL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

CONDITIONS BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AS THE FIRST OF
TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEK
COMES AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDING WARM FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH, BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY REAL STRONG STORMS. TEMPS FINALLY RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +10-12C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE 70S. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
TUESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY. FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. BTV CWA WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.5" AND GROWING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS CAPES 800-1200
J/KG DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY ALONG WITH LI`S AROUND -4 AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS. AS IT HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT WHICH WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INSTABILITY, BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WINDOW FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WHICH
COULD CREATE SOME HYDRO CONCERNS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGH
WATER FLOWS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING MID/UPPER
LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR THURSDAY...WITH
LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. LATEST GFS
IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ON THURSDAY.
GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AND
POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW
CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS OF VT ON THURSDAY.
OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT. GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND
RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN
POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS
WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE
PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S
WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER
80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...AS MVFR CIGS BECOME VFR BY 21Z. THE COMBINATION
OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY 21Z...WITH SKIES COMPLETELY
CLEARING BY 02Z THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. THINKING LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM AND CIGS OVERCAST AT 100 FEET WILL
DEVELOP BTWN 04Z AND 06Z AT MPV/SLK. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS CROSS
OVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AT BOTH SITES. WILL USE A TEMPO GROUP
AT PBG/MSS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...AS PROGGED 975MB WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KNOTS MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND PREVENT THICK FOG FROM
DEVELOPING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BTV...BUT HAVE TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIOD OF LOW VIS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG
EXPECTED BTWN 07Z-10Z. FOG AND ASSOCIATED VIS/CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
AT ALL SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY AFTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON
WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON.
DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET
AT MONTPELIER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE
RECORDS AT BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD WILL BE APPROACHED.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.92 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT.
MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS
BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF
MIDNIGHT 06/29.

AT 8.62 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.30 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 291748
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
148 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION, LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL TREND TOWARDS DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR
FLOODING. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 148 PM EDT MONDAY...FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT
THE NORTH COUNTRY, MAINLY ACROSS THE GREENS AND AREAS WEST. SOME
OF THESE MAY JUST END UP AS VIRGA, AS THE T-TD SPREAD CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
OVERALL CLOUDS THINNING, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PERSISTENT
BETWEEN 020-050.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT MONDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS GOING CALM AND SKIES GOING PARTLY
CLOUDY. DON`T EXPECT US TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY AS WE REMAIN IN A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BUT WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
CALM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IT`S A GOOD BET FOR SOME LOCALLY DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCALES. THE TREND OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES AS WELL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

CONDITIONS BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AS THE FIRST OF
TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEK
COMES AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDING WARM FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH, BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY REAL STRONG STORMS. TEMPS FINALLY RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +10-12C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE 70S. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
TUESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY. FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. BTV CWA WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.5" AND GROWING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS CAPES 800-1200
J/KG DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY ALONG WITH LI`S AROUND -4 AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS. AS IT HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT WHICH WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INSTABILITY, BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WINDOW FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WHICH
COULD CREATE SOME HYDRO CONCERNS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGH
WATER FLOWS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 419 AM EDT MONDAY...MAINTENANCE OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND EPISODES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN ASSOCIATION WITH MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTATION IS FOR MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO BE EXITING THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS)
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE A DRIER NW FLOW PATTERN
SET UP BRIEFLY PROVIDING FOR A GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH POTENTIALLY SHIFTS EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY
(SATURDAY) PER 00Z ECMWF. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
00Z GFS IS SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE AND
SUGGESTS GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY
SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTN AT THIS POINT...AS 00Z ECMWF HAS BETTER CONTINUITY
WITH PREVIOUS ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE MID-UPR 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...AND
GENERALLY LOW 60S FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...AS MVFR CIGS BECOME VFR BY 21Z. THE COMBINATION
OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY 21Z...WITH SKIES COMPLETELY
CLEARING BY 02Z THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. THINKING LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM AND CIGS OVERCAST AT 100 FEET WILL
DEVELOP BTWN 04Z AND 06Z AT MPV/SLK. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS CROSS
OVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AT BOTH SITES. WILL USE A TEMPO GROUP
AT PBG/MSS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...AS PROGGED 975MB WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KNOTS MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND PREVENT THICK FOG FROM
DEVELOPING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BTV...BUT HAVE TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIOD OF LOW VIS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG
EXPECTED BTWN 07Z-10Z. FOG AND ASSOCIATED VIS/CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
AT ALL SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY AFTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON
WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON.
DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET
AT MONTPELIER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE
RECORDS AT BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD WILL BE APPROACHED.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.92 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT.
MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS
BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF
MIDNIGHT 06/29.

AT 8.62 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.30 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291748
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
148 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION, LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL TREND TOWARDS DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR
FLOODING. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 148 PM EDT MONDAY...FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT
THE NORTH COUNTRY, MAINLY ACROSS THE GREENS AND AREAS WEST. SOME
OF THESE MAY JUST END UP AS VIRGA, AS THE T-TD SPREAD CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
OVERALL CLOUDS THINNING, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PERSISTENT
BETWEEN 020-050.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT MONDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS GOING CALM AND SKIES GOING PARTLY
CLOUDY. DON`T EXPECT US TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY AS WE REMAIN IN A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BUT WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
CALM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IT`S A GOOD BET FOR SOME LOCALLY DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCALES. THE TREND OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES AS WELL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

CONDITIONS BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AS THE FIRST OF
TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEK
COMES AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDING WARM FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH, BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY REAL STRONG STORMS. TEMPS FINALLY RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +10-12C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE 70S. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
TUESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY. FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. BTV CWA WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.5" AND GROWING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS CAPES 800-1200
J/KG DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY ALONG WITH LI`S AROUND -4 AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS. AS IT HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT WHICH WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INSTABILITY, BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WINDOW FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WHICH
COULD CREATE SOME HYDRO CONCERNS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGH
WATER FLOWS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 419 AM EDT MONDAY...MAINTENANCE OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND EPISODES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN ASSOCIATION WITH MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTATION IS FOR MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO BE EXITING THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS)
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE A DRIER NW FLOW PATTERN
SET UP BRIEFLY PROVIDING FOR A GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH POTENTIALLY SHIFTS EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY
(SATURDAY) PER 00Z ECMWF. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
00Z GFS IS SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE AND
SUGGESTS GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY
SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTN AT THIS POINT...AS 00Z ECMWF HAS BETTER CONTINUITY
WITH PREVIOUS ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE MID-UPR 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...AND
GENERALLY LOW 60S FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...AS MVFR CIGS BECOME VFR BY 21Z. THE COMBINATION
OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY 21Z...WITH SKIES COMPLETELY
CLEARING BY 02Z THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. THINKING LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM AND CIGS OVERCAST AT 100 FEET WILL
DEVELOP BTWN 04Z AND 06Z AT MPV/SLK. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS CROSS
OVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AT BOTH SITES. WILL USE A TEMPO GROUP
AT PBG/MSS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...AS PROGGED 975MB WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KNOTS MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND PREVENT THICK FOG FROM
DEVELOPING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BTV...BUT HAVE TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIOD OF LOW VIS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG
EXPECTED BTWN 07Z-10Z. FOG AND ASSOCIATED VIS/CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
AT ALL SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY AFTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON
WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON.
DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET
AT MONTPELIER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE
RECORDS AT BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD WILL BE APPROACHED.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.92 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT.
MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS
BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF
MIDNIGHT 06/29.

AT 8.62 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.30 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291748
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
148 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION, LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL TREND TOWARDS DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR
FLOODING. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 148 PM EDT MONDAY...FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT
THE NORTH COUNTRY, MAINLY ACROSS THE GREENS AND AREAS WEST. SOME
OF THESE MAY JUST END UP AS VIRGA, AS THE T-TD SPREAD CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
OVERALL CLOUDS THINNING, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PERSISTENT
BETWEEN 020-050.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT MONDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS GOING CALM AND SKIES GOING PARTLY
CLOUDY. DON`T EXPECT US TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY AS WE REMAIN IN A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BUT WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
CALM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IT`S A GOOD BET FOR SOME LOCALLY DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCALES. THE TREND OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES AS WELL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

CONDITIONS BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AS THE FIRST OF
TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEK
COMES AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDING WARM FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH, BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY REAL STRONG STORMS. TEMPS FINALLY RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +10-12C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE 70S. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
TUESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY. FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. BTV CWA WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.5" AND GROWING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS CAPES 800-1200
J/KG DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY ALONG WITH LI`S AROUND -4 AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS. AS IT HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT WHICH WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INSTABILITY, BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WINDOW FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WHICH
COULD CREATE SOME HYDRO CONCERNS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGH
WATER FLOWS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 419 AM EDT MONDAY...MAINTENANCE OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND EPISODES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN ASSOCIATION WITH MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTATION IS FOR MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO BE EXITING THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS)
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE A DRIER NW FLOW PATTERN
SET UP BRIEFLY PROVIDING FOR A GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH POTENTIALLY SHIFTS EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY
(SATURDAY) PER 00Z ECMWF. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
00Z GFS IS SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE AND
SUGGESTS GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY
SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTN AT THIS POINT...AS 00Z ECMWF HAS BETTER CONTINUITY
WITH PREVIOUS ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE MID-UPR 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...AND
GENERALLY LOW 60S FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...AS MVFR CIGS BECOME VFR BY 21Z. THE COMBINATION
OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY 21Z...WITH SKIES COMPLETELY
CLEARING BY 02Z THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. THINKING LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM AND CIGS OVERCAST AT 100 FEET WILL
DEVELOP BTWN 04Z AND 06Z AT MPV/SLK. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS CROSS
OVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AT BOTH SITES. WILL USE A TEMPO GROUP
AT PBG/MSS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...AS PROGGED 975MB WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KNOTS MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND PREVENT THICK FOG FROM
DEVELOPING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BTV...BUT HAVE TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIOD OF LOW VIS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG
EXPECTED BTWN 07Z-10Z. FOG AND ASSOCIATED VIS/CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
AT ALL SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY AFTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON
WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON.
DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET
AT MONTPELIER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE
RECORDS AT BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD WILL BE APPROACHED.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.92 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT.
MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS
BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF
MIDNIGHT 06/29.

AT 8.62 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.30 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291748
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
148 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION, LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL TREND TOWARDS DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR
FLOODING. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 148 PM EDT MONDAY...FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT
THE NORTH COUNTRY, MAINLY ACROSS THE GREENS AND AREAS WEST. SOME
OF THESE MAY JUST END UP AS VIRGA, AS THE T-TD SPREAD CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
OVERALL CLOUDS THINNING, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PERSISTENT
BETWEEN 020-050.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT MONDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS GOING CALM AND SKIES GOING PARTLY
CLOUDY. DON`T EXPECT US TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY AS WE REMAIN IN A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BUT WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
CALM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IT`S A GOOD BET FOR SOME LOCALLY DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCALES. THE TREND OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES AS WELL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

CONDITIONS BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AS THE FIRST OF
TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEK
COMES AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDING WARM FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH, BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY REAL STRONG STORMS. TEMPS FINALLY RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +10-12C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE 70S. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
TUESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY. FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. BTV CWA WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.5" AND GROWING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS CAPES 800-1200
J/KG DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY ALONG WITH LI`S AROUND -4 AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS. AS IT HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT WHICH WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INSTABILITY, BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WINDOW FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WHICH
COULD CREATE SOME HYDRO CONCERNS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGH
WATER FLOWS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 419 AM EDT MONDAY...MAINTENANCE OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND EPISODES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN ASSOCIATION WITH MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTATION IS FOR MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO BE EXITING THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS)
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE A DRIER NW FLOW PATTERN
SET UP BRIEFLY PROVIDING FOR A GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH POTENTIALLY SHIFTS EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY
(SATURDAY) PER 00Z ECMWF. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
00Z GFS IS SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE AND
SUGGESTS GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY
SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTN AT THIS POINT...AS 00Z ECMWF HAS BETTER CONTINUITY
WITH PREVIOUS ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE MID-UPR 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...AND
GENERALLY LOW 60S FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...AS MVFR CIGS BECOME VFR BY 21Z. THE COMBINATION
OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY 21Z...WITH SKIES COMPLETELY
CLEARING BY 02Z THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. THINKING LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM AND CIGS OVERCAST AT 100 FEET WILL
DEVELOP BTWN 04Z AND 06Z AT MPV/SLK. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS CROSS
OVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AT BOTH SITES. WILL USE A TEMPO GROUP
AT PBG/MSS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...AS PROGGED 975MB WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KNOTS MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND PREVENT THICK FOG FROM
DEVELOPING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BTV...BUT HAVE TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIOD OF LOW VIS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG
EXPECTED BTWN 07Z-10Z. FOG AND ASSOCIATED VIS/CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
AT ALL SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY AFTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON
WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON.
DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG
WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...IT`S