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000
FXUS61 KALY 191358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
958 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR TODAY. AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND
ASSIST WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. THIS
WILL SIGNIFY A RETURN BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 958 AM EDT...FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS TEMPERATURES RISE THIS MORNING. BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED FOR NORTHERN
HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHER WARREN COUNTIES.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
MORNING...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE STRATUS DECKS TO ERODE AND
LEAVE BEHIND A MAINLY SUNNY SKY. DESPITE THE SUN ON THESE LAST
DAYS OF SUMMER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR 1030MB WILL BE OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING. AS
THIS HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE...ITS INFLUENCE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER QUIET TONIGHT UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT SOME MOISTURE
SEEN IN THE MID LEVEL RH FIELDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ALONG WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT PER THE H2O
VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ITS
INFLUENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLIDE FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND
MAGNITUDES...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. NCEP
MODEL SUITE IS RATHER PERSISTENT WITH HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN
H925-H850 LAYER. FURTHERMORE...THESE MODELS GO FURTHER TO SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST
THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW THE
THRESHOLDS ON MENTIONING PRECIP BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE
THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH EVOLVING UPSTREAM TRENDS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. PER COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN UP TOO
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE.
THE ONE SMALL ENTITY TO THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
OUTLOOK IS ALSO MONITORING THIS EVOLVING AREA WITH LATEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPING THIS ENTITY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
LIMIT ITS IMPACT TO THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES WELL EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLD ADVECTION
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH LAKE ONTARIO CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INCREASE WHERE WE WILL KEEP CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH THE NAM QUITE STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH VALUES AT OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. A RETURN BACK TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL ALREADY BE GONE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO...ESP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT DUE TO
THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A BRISK WESTERLY WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK
FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
DRY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MINS MON
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS A
LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. VALLEY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER
30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DISSIPATED BY AROUND
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A LIGHT S-SE WIND WILL
DEVELOP...BUT LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 6 KTS OR LESS.

A FEW PASSING CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN VFR.
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...A LATE NIGHT
PERIOD OF IFR FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY. THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL OR ABOVE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN
25 AND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS THAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

THEREAFTER...IT SEEMS A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 191358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
958 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR TODAY. AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND
ASSIST WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. THIS
WILL SIGNIFY A RETURN BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 958 AM EDT...FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS TEMPERATURES RISE THIS MORNING. BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED FOR NORTHERN
HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHER WARREN COUNTIES.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
MORNING...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE STRATUS DECKS TO ERODE AND
LEAVE BEHIND A MAINLY SUNNY SKY. DESPITE THE SUN ON THESE LAST
DAYS OF SUMMER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR 1030MB WILL BE OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING. AS
THIS HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE...ITS INFLUENCE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER QUIET TONIGHT UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT SOME MOISTURE
SEEN IN THE MID LEVEL RH FIELDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ALONG WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT PER THE H2O
VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ITS
INFLUENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLIDE FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND
MAGNITUDES...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. NCEP
MODEL SUITE IS RATHER PERSISTENT WITH HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN
H925-H850 LAYER. FURTHERMORE...THESE MODELS GO FURTHER TO SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST
THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW THE
THRESHOLDS ON MENTIONING PRECIP BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE
THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH EVOLVING UPSTREAM TRENDS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. PER COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN UP TOO
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE.
THE ONE SMALL ENTITY TO THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
OUTLOOK IS ALSO MONITORING THIS EVOLVING AREA WITH LATEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPING THIS ENTITY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
LIMIT ITS IMPACT TO THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES WELL EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLD ADVECTION
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH LAKE ONTARIO CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INCREASE WHERE WE WILL KEEP CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH THE NAM QUITE STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH VALUES AT OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. A RETURN BACK TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL ALREADY BE GONE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO...ESP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT DUE TO
THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A BRISK WESTERLY WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK
FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
DRY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MINS MON
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS A
LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. VALLEY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER
30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DISSIPATED BY AROUND
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A LIGHT S-SE WIND WILL
DEVELOP...BUT LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 6 KTS OR LESS.

A FEW PASSING CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN VFR.
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...A LATE NIGHT
PERIOD OF IFR FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY. THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL OR ABOVE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN
25 AND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS THAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

THEREAFTER...IT SEEMS A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 191326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
926 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SUNNY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE WITH
SUNNY SKIES...DRY WEATHER...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. TWEAKED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS...BUT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S REMAINS
INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS LAST NIGHT IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS DECOUPLE. ALSO
EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

DURING SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. THE WARMING TREND WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MORE CLOUDS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...WITH JUST THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER NORTHERN TIER OF
ZONES. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST INTO FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TIMING. EXPECT BULK
OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING
INTO MID-AFTERNOON...WHILE VERMONT WILL SEE RAINY PERIOD DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY JET STILL IN PLACE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S...ESPECIALLY IN VERMONT DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST. PARENT UPPER
TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THOUGH...DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/FRONT DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST ENERGY/DYNAMICS
STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER AND LOW/MID LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WHILE NOT AS COLD AS
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MEAN 500-1000MB THICKNESS NOW PROGGED ABOVE
540DM...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C
SO STILL THINK THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES COULD FLY AT THE SUMMIT PEAKS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...A NICE STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOULD SEE PRETTY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH TEMPS RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...60S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
SOME MORNING FOG AT KBTV/KMPV AND LOW STRATUS AT KRUT THROUGH
14Z. CIRRUS INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TURN
5-10KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PICK UP
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY BY 12Z SATURDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM WITH SOME
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TRENDING TO VFR
TUESDAY WITH INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 191326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
926 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SUNNY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE WITH
SUNNY SKIES...DRY WEATHER...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. TWEAKED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS...BUT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S REMAINS
INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS LAST NIGHT IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS DECOUPLE. ALSO
EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

DURING SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. THE WARMING TREND WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MORE CLOUDS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...WITH JUST THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER NORTHERN TIER OF
ZONES. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST INTO FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TIMING. EXPECT BULK
OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING
INTO MID-AFTERNOON...WHILE VERMONT WILL SEE RAINY PERIOD DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY JET STILL IN PLACE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S...ESPECIALLY IN VERMONT DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST. PARENT UPPER
TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THOUGH...DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/FRONT DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST ENERGY/DYNAMICS
STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER AND LOW/MID LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WHILE NOT AS COLD AS
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MEAN 500-1000MB THICKNESS NOW PROGGED ABOVE
540DM...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C
SO STILL THINK THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES COULD FLY AT THE SUMMIT PEAKS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...A NICE STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOULD SEE PRETTY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH TEMPS RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...60S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
SOME MORNING FOG AT KBTV/KMPV AND LOW STRATUS AT KRUT THROUGH
14Z. CIRRUS INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TURN
5-10KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PICK UP
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY BY 12Z SATURDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM WITH SOME
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TRENDING TO VFR
TUESDAY WITH INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 191326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
926 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SUNNY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE WITH
SUNNY SKIES...DRY WEATHER...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. TWEAKED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS...BUT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S REMAINS
INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS LAST NIGHT IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS DECOUPLE. ALSO
EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

DURING SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. THE WARMING TREND WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MORE CLOUDS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...WITH JUST THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER NORTHERN TIER OF
ZONES. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST INTO FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TIMING. EXPECT BULK
OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING
INTO MID-AFTERNOON...WHILE VERMONT WILL SEE RAINY PERIOD DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY JET STILL IN PLACE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S...ESPECIALLY IN VERMONT DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST. PARENT UPPER
TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THOUGH...DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/FRONT DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST ENERGY/DYNAMICS
STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER AND LOW/MID LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WHILE NOT AS COLD AS
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MEAN 500-1000MB THICKNESS NOW PROGGED ABOVE
540DM...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C
SO STILL THINK THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES COULD FLY AT THE SUMMIT PEAKS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...A NICE STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOULD SEE PRETTY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH TEMPS RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...60S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
SOME MORNING FOG AT KBTV/KMPV AND LOW STRATUS AT KRUT THROUGH
14Z. CIRRUS INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TURN
5-10KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PICK UP
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY BY 12Z SATURDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM WITH SOME
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TRENDING TO VFR
TUESDAY WITH INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 191326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
926 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SUNNY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE WITH
SUNNY SKIES...DRY WEATHER...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. TWEAKED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS...BUT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S REMAINS
INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS LAST NIGHT IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS DECOUPLE. ALSO
EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

DURING SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. THE WARMING TREND WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MORE CLOUDS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...WITH JUST THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER NORTHERN TIER OF
ZONES. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST INTO FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TIMING. EXPECT BULK
OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING
INTO MID-AFTERNOON...WHILE VERMONT WILL SEE RAINY PERIOD DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY JET STILL IN PLACE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S...ESPECIALLY IN VERMONT DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST. PARENT UPPER
TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THOUGH...DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/FRONT DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST ENERGY/DYNAMICS
STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER AND LOW/MID LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WHILE NOT AS COLD AS
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MEAN 500-1000MB THICKNESS NOW PROGGED ABOVE
540DM...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C
SO STILL THINK THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES COULD FLY AT THE SUMMIT PEAKS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...A NICE STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOULD SEE PRETTY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH TEMPS RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...60S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
SOME MORNING FOG AT KBTV/KMPV AND LOW STRATUS AT KRUT THROUGH
14Z. CIRRUS INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TURN
5-10KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PICK UP
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY BY 12Z SATURDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM WITH SOME
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TRENDING TO VFR
TUESDAY WITH INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 191144
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SUNNY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 742 AM EDT FRIDAY...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY TODAY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF VERMONT. BY MID MORNING...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER
TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB
TEMPS MODERATE TO BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD
START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SURFACE TEMPS TO TOP
60 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. LOOK
FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS LAST NIGHT IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS DECOUPLE. ALSO
EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

DURING SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. THE WARMING TREND WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MORE CLOUDS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...WITH JUST THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER NORTHERN TIER OF
ZONES. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST INTO FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TIMING. EXPECT BULK
OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING
INTO MID-AFTERNOON...WHILE VERMONT WILL SEE RAINY PERIOD DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY JET STILL IN PLACE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S...ESPECIALLY IN VERMONT DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST. PARENT UPPER
TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THOUGH...DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/FRONT DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST ENERGY/DYNAMICS
STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER AND LOW/MID LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WHILE NOT AS COLD AS
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MEAN 500-1000MB THICKNESS NOW PROGGED ABOVE
540DM...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C
SO STILL THINK THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES COULD FLY AT THE SUMMIT PEAKS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...A NICE STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOULD SEE PRETTY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH TEMPS RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...60S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
SOME MORNING FOG AT KBTV/KMPV AND LOW STRATUS AT KRUT THROUGH
14Z. CIRRUS INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TURN
5-10KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PICK UP
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY BY 12Z SATURDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM WITH SOME
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TRENDING TO VFR
TUESDAY WITH INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 191144
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SUNNY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 742 AM EDT FRIDAY...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY TODAY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF VERMONT. BY MID MORNING...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER
TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB
TEMPS MODERATE TO BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD
START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SURFACE TEMPS TO TOP
60 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. LOOK
FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS LAST NIGHT IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS DECOUPLE. ALSO
EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

DURING SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. THE WARMING TREND WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MORE CLOUDS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...WITH JUST THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER NORTHERN TIER OF
ZONES. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST INTO FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TIMING. EXPECT BULK
OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING
INTO MID-AFTERNOON...WHILE VERMONT WILL SEE RAINY PERIOD DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY JET STILL IN PLACE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S...ESPECIALLY IN VERMONT DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST. PARENT UPPER
TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THOUGH...DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/FRONT DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST ENERGY/DYNAMICS
STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER AND LOW/MID LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WHILE NOT AS COLD AS
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MEAN 500-1000MB THICKNESS NOW PROGGED ABOVE
540DM...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C
SO STILL THINK THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES COULD FLY AT THE SUMMIT PEAKS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...A NICE STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOULD SEE PRETTY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH TEMPS RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...60S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
SOME MORNING FOG AT KBTV/KMPV AND LOW STRATUS AT KRUT THROUGH
14Z. CIRRUS INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TURN
5-10KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PICK UP
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY BY 12Z SATURDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM WITH SOME
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TRENDING TO VFR
TUESDAY WITH INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 191125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SUNNY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY TODAY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. BY MID MORNING
HOWEVER...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY
EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
SURFACE TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DESPITE THE
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS LAST NIGHT IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS DECOUPLE. ALSO
EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

DURING SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. THE WARMING TREND WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MORE CLOUDS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...WITH JUST THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER NORTHERN TIER OF
ZONES. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST INTO FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TIMING. EXPECT BULK
OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING
INTO MID-AFTERNOON...WHILE VERMONT WILL SEE RAINY PERIOD DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY JET STILL IN PLACE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S...ESPECIALLY IN VERMONT DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST. PARENT UPPER
TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THOUGH...DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/FRONT DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST ENERGY/DYNAMICS
STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER AND LOW/MID LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WHILE NOT AS COLD AS
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MEAN 500-1000MB THICKNESS NOW PROGGED ABOVE
540DM...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C
SO STILL THINK THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES COULD FLY AT THE SUMMIT PEAKS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...A NICE STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOULD SEE PRETTY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH TEMPS RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...60S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
SOME MORNING FOG AT KBTV/KMPV AND LOW STRATUS AT KRUT THROUGH
14Z. CIRRUS INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TURN
5-10KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PICK UP
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY BY 12Z SATURDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM WITH SOME
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TRENDING TO VFR
TUESDAY WITH INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH









000
FXUS61 KBTV 191125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SUNNY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY TODAY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. BY MID MORNING
HOWEVER...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY
EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
SURFACE TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DESPITE THE
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS LAST NIGHT IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS DECOUPLE. ALSO
EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

DURING SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. THE WARMING TREND WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MORE CLOUDS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...WITH JUST THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER NORTHERN TIER OF
ZONES. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST INTO FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TIMING. EXPECT BULK
OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING
INTO MID-AFTERNOON...WHILE VERMONT WILL SEE RAINY PERIOD DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY JET STILL IN PLACE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S...ESPECIALLY IN VERMONT DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST. PARENT UPPER
TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THOUGH...DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/FRONT DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST ENERGY/DYNAMICS
STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER AND LOW/MID LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WHILE NOT AS COLD AS
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MEAN 500-1000MB THICKNESS NOW PROGGED ABOVE
540DM...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C
SO STILL THINK THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES COULD FLY AT THE SUMMIT PEAKS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...A NICE STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOULD SEE PRETTY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH TEMPS RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...60S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
SOME MORNING FOG AT KBTV/KMPV AND LOW STRATUS AT KRUT THROUGH
14Z. CIRRUS INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TURN
5-10KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PICK UP
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY BY 12Z SATURDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM WITH SOME
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TRENDING TO VFR
TUESDAY WITH INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH









000
FXUS61 KBTV 191125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SUNNY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY TODAY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. BY MID MORNING
HOWEVER...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY
EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
SURFACE TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DESPITE THE
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS LAST NIGHT IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS DECOUPLE. ALSO
EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

DURING SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. THE WARMING TREND WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MORE CLOUDS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...WITH JUST THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER NORTHERN TIER OF
ZONES. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST INTO FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TIMING. EXPECT BULK
OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING
INTO MID-AFTERNOON...WHILE VERMONT WILL SEE RAINY PERIOD DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY JET STILL IN PLACE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S...ESPECIALLY IN VERMONT DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST. PARENT UPPER
TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THOUGH...DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/FRONT DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST ENERGY/DYNAMICS
STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER AND LOW/MID LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WHILE NOT AS COLD AS
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MEAN 500-1000MB THICKNESS NOW PROGGED ABOVE
540DM...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C
SO STILL THINK THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES COULD FLY AT THE SUMMIT PEAKS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...A NICE STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOULD SEE PRETTY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH TEMPS RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...60S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
SOME MORNING FOG AT KBTV/KMPV AND LOW STRATUS AT KRUT THROUGH
14Z. CIRRUS INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TURN
5-10KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PICK UP
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY BY 12Z SATURDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM WITH SOME
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TRENDING TO VFR
TUESDAY WITH INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH









000
FXUS61 KBTV 191125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SUNNY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY TODAY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. BY MID MORNING
HOWEVER...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY
EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
SURFACE TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DESPITE THE
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS LAST NIGHT IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS DECOUPLE. ALSO
EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

DURING SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. THE WARMING TREND WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MORE CLOUDS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...WITH JUST THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER NORTHERN TIER OF
ZONES. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST INTO FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TIMING. EXPECT BULK
OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING
INTO MID-AFTERNOON...WHILE VERMONT WILL SEE RAINY PERIOD DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY JET STILL IN PLACE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S...ESPECIALLY IN VERMONT DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST. PARENT UPPER
TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THOUGH...DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/FRONT DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST ENERGY/DYNAMICS
STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER AND LOW/MID LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WHILE NOT AS COLD AS
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MEAN 500-1000MB THICKNESS NOW PROGGED ABOVE
540DM...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C
SO STILL THINK THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES COULD FLY AT THE SUMMIT PEAKS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...A NICE STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOULD SEE PRETTY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH TEMPS RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...60S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
SOME MORNING FOG AT KBTV/KMPV AND LOW STRATUS AT KRUT THROUGH
14Z. CIRRUS INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TURN
5-10KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PICK UP
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY BY 12Z SATURDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM WITH SOME
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TRENDING TO VFR
TUESDAY WITH INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH









000
FXUS61 KALY 191049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR TODAY. AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND
ASSIST WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. THIS
WILL SIGNIFY A RETURN BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT... LATEST 11U-3.9U IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL A
PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN SARATOGA
VICINITY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN THESE LOCATIONS THE TEMPERATURES
HAVE REMAINED RATHER MILD. FURTHER NORTH INTO THE DACKS...MESONET
OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING WITH KSLK INTO THE LOW 20S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS MORNING...EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THE STRATUS DECKS TO ERODE AND LEAVE BEHIND A MAINLY SUNNY
SKY. DESPITE THE SUN ON THESE LAST DAYS OF SUMMER...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER 60S
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR 1030MB WILL BE OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING. AS
THIS HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE...ITS INFLUENCE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER QUIET TONIGHT UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT SOME MOISTURE
SEEN IN THE MID LEVEL RH FIELDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ALONG WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT PER THE H2O
VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ITS
INFLUENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLIDE FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND
MAGNITUDES...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. NCEP
MODEL SUITE IS RATHER PERSISTENT WITH HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN
H925-H850 LAYER. FURTHERMORE...THESE MODELS GO FURTHER TO SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST
THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW THE
THRESHOLDS ON MENTIONING PRECIP BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE
THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH EVOLVING UPSTREAM TRENDS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. PER COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN UP TOO
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE.
THE ONE SMALL ENTITY TO THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
OUTLOOK IS ALSO MONITORING THIS EVOLVING AREA WITH LATEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPING THIS ENTITY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
LIMIT ITS IMPACT TO THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES WELL EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLD ADVECTION
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH LAKE ONTARIO CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INCREASE WHERE WE WILL KEEP CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH THE NAM QUITE STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH VALUES AT OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. A RETURN BACK TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL ALREADY BE GONE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO...ESP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT DUE TO
THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A BRISK WESTERLY WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK
FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
DRY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MINS MON
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS A
LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. VALLEY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER
30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DISSIPATED BY AROUND
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A LIGHT S-SE WIND WILL
DEVELOP...BUT LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 6 KTS OR LESS.

A FEW PASSING CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN VFR.
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...A LATE NIGHT
PERIOD OF IFR FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY. THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL OR ABOVE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN
25 AND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS THAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

THEREAFTER...IT SEEMS A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 191049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR TODAY. AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND
ASSIST WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. THIS
WILL SIGNIFY A RETURN BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT... LATEST 11U-3.9U IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL A
PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN SARATOGA
VICINITY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN THESE LOCATIONS THE TEMPERATURES
HAVE REMAINED RATHER MILD. FURTHER NORTH INTO THE DACKS...MESONET
OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING WITH KSLK INTO THE LOW 20S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS MORNING...EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THE STRATUS DECKS TO ERODE AND LEAVE BEHIND A MAINLY SUNNY
SKY. DESPITE THE SUN ON THESE LAST DAYS OF SUMMER...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER 60S
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR 1030MB WILL BE OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING. AS
THIS HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE...ITS INFLUENCE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER QUIET TONIGHT UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT SOME MOISTURE
SEEN IN THE MID LEVEL RH FIELDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ALONG WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT PER THE H2O
VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ITS
INFLUENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLIDE FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND
MAGNITUDES...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. NCEP
MODEL SUITE IS RATHER PERSISTENT WITH HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN
H925-H850 LAYER. FURTHERMORE...THESE MODELS GO FURTHER TO SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST
THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW THE
THRESHOLDS ON MENTIONING PRECIP BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE
THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH EVOLVING UPSTREAM TRENDS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. PER COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN UP TOO
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE.
THE ONE SMALL ENTITY TO THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
OUTLOOK IS ALSO MONITORING THIS EVOLVING AREA WITH LATEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPING THIS ENTITY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
LIMIT ITS IMPACT TO THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES WELL EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLD ADVECTION
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH LAKE ONTARIO CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INCREASE WHERE WE WILL KEEP CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH THE NAM QUITE STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH VALUES AT OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. A RETURN BACK TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL ALREADY BE GONE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO...ESP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT DUE TO
THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A BRISK WESTERLY WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK
FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
DRY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MINS MON
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS A
LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. VALLEY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER
30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DISSIPATED BY AROUND
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A LIGHT S-SE WIND WILL
DEVELOP...BUT LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 6 KTS OR LESS.

A FEW PASSING CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN VFR.
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...A LATE NIGHT
PERIOD OF IFR FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY. THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL OR ABOVE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN
25 AND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS THAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

THEREAFTER...IT SEEMS A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 191049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR TODAY. AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND
ASSIST WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. THIS
WILL SIGNIFY A RETURN BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT... LATEST 11U-3.9U IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL A
PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN SARATOGA
VICINITY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN THESE LOCATIONS THE TEMPERATURES
HAVE REMAINED RATHER MILD. FURTHER NORTH INTO THE DACKS...MESONET
OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING WITH KSLK INTO THE LOW 20S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS MORNING...EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THE STRATUS DECKS TO ERODE AND LEAVE BEHIND A MAINLY SUNNY
SKY. DESPITE THE SUN ON THESE LAST DAYS OF SUMMER...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER 60S
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR 1030MB WILL BE OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING. AS
THIS HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE...ITS INFLUENCE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER QUIET TONIGHT UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT SOME MOISTURE
SEEN IN THE MID LEVEL RH FIELDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ALONG WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT PER THE H2O
VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ITS
INFLUENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLIDE FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND
MAGNITUDES...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. NCEP
MODEL SUITE IS RATHER PERSISTENT WITH HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN
H925-H850 LAYER. FURTHERMORE...THESE MODELS GO FURTHER TO SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST
THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW THE
THRESHOLDS ON MENTIONING PRECIP BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE
THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH EVOLVING UPSTREAM TRENDS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. PER COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN UP TOO
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE.
THE ONE SMALL ENTITY TO THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
OUTLOOK IS ALSO MONITORING THIS EVOLVING AREA WITH LATEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPING THIS ENTITY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
LIMIT ITS IMPACT TO THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES WELL EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLD ADVECTION
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH LAKE ONTARIO CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INCREASE WHERE WE WILL KEEP CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH THE NAM QUITE STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH VALUES AT OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. A RETURN BACK TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL ALREADY BE GONE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO...ESP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT DUE TO
THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A BRISK WESTERLY WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK
FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
DRY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MINS MON
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS A
LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. VALLEY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER
30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DISSIPATED BY AROUND
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A LIGHT S-SE WIND WILL
DEVELOP...BUT LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 6 KTS OR LESS.

A FEW PASSING CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN VFR.
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...A LATE NIGHT
PERIOD OF IFR FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY. THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL OR ABOVE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN
25 AND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS THAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

THEREAFTER...IT SEEMS A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 191049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR TODAY. AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND
ASSIST WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. THIS
WILL SIGNIFY A RETURN BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT... LATEST 11U-3.9U IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL A
PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN SARATOGA
VICINITY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN THESE LOCATIONS THE TEMPERATURES
HAVE REMAINED RATHER MILD. FURTHER NORTH INTO THE DACKS...MESONET
OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING WITH KSLK INTO THE LOW 20S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS MORNING...EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THE STRATUS DECKS TO ERODE AND LEAVE BEHIND A MAINLY SUNNY
SKY. DESPITE THE SUN ON THESE LAST DAYS OF SUMMER...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER 60S
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR 1030MB WILL BE OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING. AS
THIS HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE...ITS INFLUENCE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER QUIET TONIGHT UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT SOME MOISTURE
SEEN IN THE MID LEVEL RH FIELDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ALONG WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT PER THE H2O
VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ITS
INFLUENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLIDE FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND
MAGNITUDES...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. NCEP
MODEL SUITE IS RATHER PERSISTENT WITH HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN
H925-H850 LAYER. FURTHERMORE...THESE MODELS GO FURTHER TO SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST
THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW THE
THRESHOLDS ON MENTIONING PRECIP BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE
THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH EVOLVING UPSTREAM TRENDS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. PER COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN UP TOO
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE.
THE ONE SMALL ENTITY TO THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
OUTLOOK IS ALSO MONITORING THIS EVOLVING AREA WITH LATEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPING THIS ENTITY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
LIMIT ITS IMPACT TO THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES WELL EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLD ADVECTION
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH LAKE ONTARIO CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INCREASE WHERE WE WILL KEEP CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH THE NAM QUITE STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH VALUES AT OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. A RETURN BACK TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL ALREADY BE GONE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO...ESP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT DUE TO
THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A BRISK WESTERLY WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK
FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
DRY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MINS MON
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS A
LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. VALLEY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER
30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DISSIPATED BY AROUND
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A LIGHT S-SE WIND WILL
DEVELOP...BUT LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 6 KTS OR LESS.

A FEW PASSING CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN VFR.
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...A LATE NIGHT
PERIOD OF IFR FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY. THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL OR ABOVE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN
25 AND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS THAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

THEREAFTER...IT SEEMS A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 191035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR TODAY. AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND
ASSIST WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. THIS
WILL SIGNIFY A RETURN BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT... LATEST 11U-3.9U IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL A
PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN SARATOGA
VICINITY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN THESE LOCATIONS THE TEMPERATURES
HAVE REMAINED RATHER MILD. FURTHER NORTH INTO THE DACKS...MESONET
OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING WITH KSLK INTO THE LOW 20S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS MORNING...EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THE STRATUS DECKS TO ERODE AND LEAVE BEHIND A MAINLY SUNNY
SKY. DESPITE THE SUN ON THESE LAST DAYS OF SUMMER...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER 60S
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR 1030MB WILL BE OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING. AS
THIS HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE...ITS INFLUENCE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER QUIET TONIGHT UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT SOME MOISTURE
SEEN IN THE MID LEVEL RH FIELDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ALONG WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT PER THE H2O
VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ITS
INFLUENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLIDE FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND
MAGNITUDES...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. NCEP
MODEL SUITE IS RATHER PERSISTENT WITH HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN
H925-H850 LAYER. FURTHERMORE...THESE MODELS GO FURTHER TO SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST
THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW THE
THRESHOLDS ON MENTIONING PRECIP BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE
THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH EVOLVING UPSTREAM TRENDS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. PER COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN UP TOO
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE.
THE ONE SMALL ENTITY TO THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
OUTLOOK IS ALSO MONITORING THIS EVOLVING AREA WITH LATEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPING THIS ENTITY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
LIMIT ITS IMPACT TO THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES WELL EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLD ADVECTION
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH LAKE ONTARIO CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INCREASE WHERE WE WILL KEEP CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH THE NAM QUITE STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH VALUES AT OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. A RETURN BACK TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL ALREADY BE GONE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO...ESP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT DUE TO
THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A BRISK WESTERLY WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK
FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
DRY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MINS MON
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS A
LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. VALLEY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER
30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BATCH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING AROUND KALB. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM
WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. BECAUSE OF THESE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT FOR KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.
ANY FOG WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DAY ON FRIDAY. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP FOR FRI NIGHT...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE. S-SE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY 6
KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY. THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL OR ABOVE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN
25 AND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS THAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

THEREAFTER...IT SEEMS A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 191035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR TODAY. AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND
ASSIST WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. THIS
WILL SIGNIFY A RETURN BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT... LATEST 11U-3.9U IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL A
PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN SARATOGA
VICINITY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN THESE LOCATIONS THE TEMPERATURES
HAVE REMAINED RATHER MILD. FURTHER NORTH INTO THE DACKS...MESONET
OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING WITH KSLK INTO THE LOW 20S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS MORNING...EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THE STRATUS DECKS TO ERODE AND LEAVE BEHIND A MAINLY SUNNY
SKY. DESPITE THE SUN ON THESE LAST DAYS OF SUMMER...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER 60S
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR 1030MB WILL BE OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING. AS
THIS HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE...ITS INFLUENCE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER QUIET TONIGHT UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT SOME MOISTURE
SEEN IN THE MID LEVEL RH FIELDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ALONG WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT PER THE H2O
VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ITS
INFLUENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLIDE FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND
MAGNITUDES...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. NCEP
MODEL SUITE IS RATHER PERSISTENT WITH HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN
H925-H850 LAYER. FURTHERMORE...THESE MODELS GO FURTHER TO SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST
THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW THE
THRESHOLDS ON MENTIONING PRECIP BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE
THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH EVOLVING UPSTREAM TRENDS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. PER COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN UP TOO
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE.
THE ONE SMALL ENTITY TO THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
OUTLOOK IS ALSO MONITORING THIS EVOLVING AREA WITH LATEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPING THIS ENTITY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
LIMIT ITS IMPACT TO THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES WELL EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLD ADVECTION
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH LAKE ONTARIO CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INCREASE WHERE WE WILL KEEP CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH THE NAM QUITE STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH VALUES AT OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. A RETURN BACK TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL ALREADY BE GONE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO...ESP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT DUE TO
THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A BRISK WESTERLY WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK
FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
DRY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MINS MON
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS A
LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. VALLEY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER
30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BATCH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING AROUND KALB. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM
WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. BECAUSE OF THESE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT FOR KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.
ANY FOG WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DAY ON FRIDAY. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP FOR FRI NIGHT...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE. S-SE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY 6
KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY. THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL OR ABOVE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN
25 AND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS THAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

THEREAFTER...IT SEEMS A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KBTV 190836
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
436 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SUNNY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY TODAY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. BY MID MORNING
HOWEVER...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY
EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
SURFACE TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DESPITE THE
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS LAST NIGHT IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS DECOUPLE. ALSO
EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

DURING SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. THE WARMING TREND WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MORE CLOUDS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...WITH JUST THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER NORTHERN TIER OF
ZONES. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST INTO FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TIMING. EXPECT BULK
OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING
INTO MID-AFTERNOON...WHILE VERMONT WILL SEE RAINY PERIOD DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY JET STILL IN PLACE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S...ESPECIALLY IN VERMONT DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST. PARENT UPPER
TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THOUGH...DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/FRONT DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST ENERGY/DYNAMICS
STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER AND LOW/MID LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WHILE NOT AS COLD AS
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MEAN 500-1000MB THICKNESS NOW PROGGED ABOVE
540DM...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C
SO STILL THINK THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES COULD FLY AT THE SUMMIT PEAKS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...A NICE STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOULD SEE PRETTY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH TEMPS RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...60S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING FEW-SCT VFR CLOUDS
AROUND 5KFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME...BUT EXPECT
SKIES TO CONTINUE TO TREND TO SKC BY 09Z AND REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE REST OF PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. HAVE OPTED TO
REMOVE MENTION OF FOG FROM KMPV OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT TURN 5-10KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM WITH SOME
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TRENDING TO VFR
TUESDAY WITH INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 190836
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
436 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SUNNY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY TODAY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. BY MID MORNING
HOWEVER...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY
EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
SURFACE TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DESPITE THE
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS LAST NIGHT IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS DECOUPLE. ALSO
EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

DURING SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. THE WARMING TREND WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MORE CLOUDS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...WITH JUST THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER NORTHERN TIER OF
ZONES. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST INTO FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TIMING. EXPECT BULK
OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING
INTO MID-AFTERNOON...WHILE VERMONT WILL SEE RAINY PERIOD DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY JET STILL IN PLACE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S...ESPECIALLY IN VERMONT DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST. PARENT UPPER
TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THOUGH...DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/FRONT DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST ENERGY/DYNAMICS
STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER AND LOW/MID LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WHILE NOT AS COLD AS
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MEAN 500-1000MB THICKNESS NOW PROGGED ABOVE
540DM...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C
SO STILL THINK THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES COULD FLY AT THE SUMMIT PEAKS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...A NICE STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOULD SEE PRETTY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH TEMPS RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...60S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING FEW-SCT VFR CLOUDS
AROUND 5KFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME...BUT EXPECT
SKIES TO CONTINUE TO TREND TO SKC BY 09Z AND REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE REST OF PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. HAVE OPTED TO
REMOVE MENTION OF FOG FROM KMPV OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT TURN 5-10KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM WITH SOME
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TRENDING TO VFR
TUESDAY WITH INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 190755
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1244 AM EDT FRIDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES MADE TO MIN TEMPS.
OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS...NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CURRENT
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES REMAIN AS IS WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST. PARENT UPPER
TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THOUGH...DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/FRONT DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST ENERGY/DYNAMICS
STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER AND LOW/MID LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WHILE NOT AS COLD AS
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MEAN 500-1000MB THICKNESS NOW PROGGED ABOVE
540DM...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C
SO STILL THINK THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES COULD FLY AT THE SUMMIT PEAKS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...A NICE STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOULD SEE PRETTY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH TEMPS RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...60S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING FEW-SCT VFR CLOUDS
AROUND 5KFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME...BUT EXPECT
SKIES TO CONTINUE TO TREND TO SKC BY 09Z AND REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE REST OF PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. HAVE OPTED TO
REMOVE MENTION OF FOG FROM KMPV OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT TURN 5-10KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM WITH SOME
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TRENDING TO VFR
TUESDAY WITH INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 190743
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
343 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR TODAY. AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND
ASSIST WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. THIS
WILL SIGNIFY A RETURN BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT... LATEST 11U-3.9U IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL A
PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDING FROM THE THE SARATOGA
VICINITY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE BERKS AND NW CT. IN THESE LOCATIONS THE TEMPERATURES HAVE
REMAINED RATHER MILD /EVEN KGFL WAS STILL AT 37F/. FURTHER NORTH
INTO THE DACKS...MESONET OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING TEMPERATURES
HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING WITH KSLK INTO THE MID 20S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE STRATUS DECKS TO ERODE AND LEAVE
BEHIND A MAINLY SUNNY SKY. DESPITE THE SUN ON THESE LAST DAYS OF
SUMMER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND LOWER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR 1030MB WILL BE OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING. AS
THIS HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE...ITS INFLUENCE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER QUIET TONIGHT UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT SOME MOISTURE
SEEN IN THE MID LEVEL RH FIELDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ALONG WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT PER THE H2O
VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ITS
INFLUENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLIDE FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND
MAGNITUDES...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. NCEP
MODEL SUITE IS RATHER PERSISTENT WITH HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN
H925-H850 LAYER. FURTHERMORE...THESE MODELS GO FURTHER TO SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST
THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW THE
THRESHOLDS ON MENTIONING PRECIP BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE
THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH EVOLVING UPSTREAM TRENDS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. PER COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN UP TOO
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE.
THE ONE SMALL ENTITY TO THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
OUTLOOK IS ALSO MONITORING THIS EVOLVING AREA WITH LATEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPING THIS ENTITY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
LIMIT ITS IMPACT TO THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES WELL EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLD ADVECTION
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH LAKE ONTARIO CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INCREASE WHERE WE WILL KEEP CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH THE NAM QUITE STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH VALUES AT OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. A RETURN BACK TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL ALREADY BE GONE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO...ESP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT DUE TO
THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A BRISK WESTERLY WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK
FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
DRY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MINS MON
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS A
LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. VALLEY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER
30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BATCH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING AROUND KALB. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM
WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. BECAUSE OF THESE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT FOR KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.
ANY FOG WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DAY ON FRIDAY. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP FOR FRI NIGHT...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE. S-SE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY 6
KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY. THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL OR ABOVE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN
25 AND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS THAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

THEREAFTER...IT SEEMS A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 190743
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
343 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR TODAY. AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND
ASSIST WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. THIS
WILL SIGNIFY A RETURN BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT... LATEST 11U-3.9U IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL A
PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDING FROM THE THE SARATOGA
VICINITY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE BERKS AND NW CT. IN THESE LOCATIONS THE TEMPERATURES HAVE
REMAINED RATHER MILD /EVEN KGFL WAS STILL AT 37F/. FURTHER NORTH
INTO THE DACKS...MESONET OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING TEMPERATURES
HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING WITH KSLK INTO THE MID 20S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE STRATUS DECKS TO ERODE AND LEAVE
BEHIND A MAINLY SUNNY SKY. DESPITE THE SUN ON THESE LAST DAYS OF
SUMMER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND LOWER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR 1030MB WILL BE OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING. AS
THIS HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE...ITS INFLUENCE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER QUIET TONIGHT UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT SOME MOISTURE
SEEN IN THE MID LEVEL RH FIELDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ALONG WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT PER THE H2O
VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ITS
INFLUENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLIDE FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND
MAGNITUDES...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. NCEP
MODEL SUITE IS RATHER PERSISTENT WITH HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN
H925-H850 LAYER. FURTHERMORE...THESE MODELS GO FURTHER TO SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST
THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW THE
THRESHOLDS ON MENTIONING PRECIP BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE
THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH EVOLVING UPSTREAM TRENDS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. PER COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN UP TOO
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE.
THE ONE SMALL ENTITY TO THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
OUTLOOK IS ALSO MONITORING THIS EVOLVING AREA WITH LATEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE KEEPING THIS ENTITY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
LIMIT ITS IMPACT TO THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES WELL EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLD ADVECTION
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH LAKE ONTARIO CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INCREASE WHERE WE WILL KEEP CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH THE NAM QUITE STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH VALUES AT OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. A RETURN BACK TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL ALREADY BE GONE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO...ESP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT DUE TO
THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A BRISK WESTERLY WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK
FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
DRY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MINS MON
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS A
LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. VALLEY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER
30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BATCH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING AROUND KALB. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM
WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. BECAUSE OF THESE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT FOR KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.
ANY FOG WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DAY ON FRIDAY. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP FOR FRI NIGHT...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE. S-SE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY 6
KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY. THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL OR ABOVE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN
25 AND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS THAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

THEREAFTER...IT SEEMS A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KBTV 190558
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
158 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1244 AM EDT FRIDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES MADE TO MIN TEMPS.
OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS...NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CURRENT
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES REMAIN AS IS WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE BIG PICTURE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND BE PRETTY MUCH
DONE WITH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS WOULD MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THOSE DAYS
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (AND
PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS (AKA
"RIDGE-O-SAURUS"). "WARM" SUNDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY. STILL WANT
MORE GORY DETAILS? WELL, KEEP READING ON MY FRIENDS...

SUNDAY: BELIEF HERE IS THAT THE SLOWER GFS IS BETTER ON TIMING.
MAKES SENSE WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A
HYBRID LOW PASSING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ACTING TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN A BIT. THINK THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL
BE IN THE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE VERMONT IS MORE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SOUTHERLY JET
STILL IN PLACE, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED FOR SOME SURFACE GUSTS TO
30MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE & CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S (ESPECIALLY VERMONT
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN). GFS, NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED
T-STORM FORMS, AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SHOWERS END AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PROBABLY
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY. CAN`T RULE OUT SPOT SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY WARM -- THOUGH EVEN SHORT CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. PLAYED IT MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BOTH NIGHTS AND HAVE LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD VERY WELL HAVE A MUCH BIGGER SPREAD.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: PRETTY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (AT LEAST 1035MB)
MOVES IN. AT THE SAME TIME 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE START OF A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MEAN PRETTY MUCH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW WARM IT WILL BE BOTH DAYS. EURO INDICATES 925MB TEMPERATURES AT
10C WEDNESDAY UP TO 12C THURSDAY -- WHICH WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY TO 70S THURSDAY. GFS IS MUCH COLDER
WEDNESDAY (3C @ 925MB) AND THEN 10C ON THURSDAY.  OF LATE, THE GFS
IS DOING BETTER WITH THESE 925MB TEMPERATURES, SO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MID/UPPER 60S THURSDAY. COOL OVERNIGHT, PROBABLY
PATCHY FOG.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY WHILE WARMING
SOME MORE FOR THAT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING FEW-SCT VFR CLOUDS
AROUND 5KFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME...BUT EXPECT
SKIES TO CONTINUE TO TREND TO SKC BY 09Z AND REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE REST OF PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. HAVE OPTED TO
REMOVE MENTION OF FOG FROM KMPV OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT TURN 5-10KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM WITH SOME
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TRENDING TO VFR
TUESDAY WITH INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 190558
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
158 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1244 AM EDT FRIDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES MADE TO MIN TEMPS.
OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS...NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CURRENT
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES REMAIN AS IS WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE BIG PICTURE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND BE PRETTY MUCH
DONE WITH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS WOULD MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THOSE DAYS
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (AND
PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS (AKA
"RIDGE-O-SAURUS"). "WARM" SUNDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY. STILL WANT
MORE GORY DETAILS? WELL, KEEP READING ON MY FRIENDS...

SUNDAY: BELIEF HERE IS THAT THE SLOWER GFS IS BETTER ON TIMING.
MAKES SENSE WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A
HYBRID LOW PASSING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ACTING TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN A BIT. THINK THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL
BE IN THE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE VERMONT IS MORE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SOUTHERLY JET
STILL IN PLACE, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED FOR SOME SURFACE GUSTS TO
30MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE & CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S (ESPECIALLY VERMONT
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN). GFS, NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED
T-STORM FORMS, AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SHOWERS END AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PROBABLY
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY. CAN`T RULE OUT SPOT SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY WARM -- THOUGH EVEN SHORT CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. PLAYED IT MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BOTH NIGHTS AND HAVE LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD VERY WELL HAVE A MUCH BIGGER SPREAD.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: PRETTY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (AT LEAST 1035MB)
MOVES IN. AT THE SAME TIME 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE START OF A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MEAN PRETTY MUCH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW WARM IT WILL BE BOTH DAYS. EURO INDICATES 925MB TEMPERATURES AT
10C WEDNESDAY UP TO 12C THURSDAY -- WHICH WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY TO 70S THURSDAY. GFS IS MUCH COLDER
WEDNESDAY (3C @ 925MB) AND THEN 10C ON THURSDAY.  OF LATE, THE GFS
IS DOING BETTER WITH THESE 925MB TEMPERATURES, SO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MID/UPPER 60S THURSDAY. COOL OVERNIGHT, PROBABLY
PATCHY FOG.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY WHILE WARMING
SOME MORE FOR THAT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING FEW-SCT VFR CLOUDS
AROUND 5KFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME...BUT EXPECT
SKIES TO CONTINUE TO TREND TO SKC BY 09Z AND REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE REST OF PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. HAVE OPTED TO
REMOVE MENTION OF FOG FROM KMPV OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT TURN 5-10KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM WITH SOME
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TRENDING TO VFR
TUESDAY WITH INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH








000
FXUS61 KALY 190535
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA PER THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY AND METARS. THESE CLOUDS ARE HAVING
AN IMPACT TO THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS OBS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECASTS. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD FRONT CENTER AROUND H850 WHERE
BAROCLINICITY IS RATHER TIGHT. PER THE RAP13...EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. FOR
THIS UPDATE...DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER INITIALLY WITH IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES REMAIN. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND
ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH
WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE TO PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN CLOUDS WELL INTO
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM
UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BATCH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING AROUND KALB. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM
WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. BECAUSE OF THESE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT FOR KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.
ANY FOG WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DAY ON FRIDAY. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP FOR FRI NIGHT...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE. S-SE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY 6
KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 190535
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA PER THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY AND METARS. THESE CLOUDS ARE HAVING
AN IMPACT TO THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS OBS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECASTS. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD FRONT CENTER AROUND H850 WHERE
BAROCLINICITY IS RATHER TIGHT. PER THE RAP13...EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. FOR
THIS UPDATE...DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER INITIALLY WITH IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES REMAIN. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND
ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH
WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE TO PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN CLOUDS WELL INTO
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM
UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BATCH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING AROUND KALB. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM
WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. BECAUSE OF THESE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT FOR KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.
ANY FOG WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DAY ON FRIDAY. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP FOR FRI NIGHT...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE. S-SE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY 6
KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 190450
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1250 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1244 AM EDT FRIDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES MADE TO MIN TEMPS.
OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS...NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CURRENT
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES REMAIN AS IS WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE BIG PICTURE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND BE PRETTY MUCH
DONE WITH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS WOULD MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THOSE DAYS
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (AND
PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS (AKA
"RIDGE-O-SAURUS"). "WARM" SUNDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY. STILL WANT
MORE GORY DETAILS? WELL, KEEP READING ON MY FRIENDS...

SUNDAY: BELIEF HERE IS THAT THE SLOWER GFS IS BETTER ON TIMING.
MAKES SENSE WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A
HYBRID LOW PASSING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ACTING TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN A BIT. THINK THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL
BE IN THE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE VERMONT IS MORE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SOUTHERLY JET
STILL IN PLACE, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED FOR SOME SURFACE GUSTS TO
30MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE & CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S (ESPECIALLY VERMONT
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN). GFS, NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED
T-STORM FORMS, AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SHOWERS END AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PROBABLY
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY. CAN`T RULE OUT SPOT SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY WARM -- THOUGH EVEN SHORT CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. PLAYED IT MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BOTH NIGHTS AND HAVE LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD VERY WELL HAVE A MUCH BIGGER SPREAD.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: PRETTY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (AT LEAST 1035MB)
MOVES IN. AT THE SAME TIME 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE START OF A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MEAN PRETTY MUCH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW WARM IT WILL BE BOTH DAYS. EURO INDICATES 925MB TEMPERATURES AT
10C WEDNESDAY UP TO 12C THURSDAY -- WHICH WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY TO 70S THURSDAY. GFS IS MUCH COLDER
WEDNESDAY (3C @ 925MB) AND THEN 10C ON THURSDAY.  OF LATE, THE GFS
IS DOING BETTER WITH THESE 925MB TEMPERATURES, SO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MID/UPPER 60S THURSDAY. COOL OVERNIGHT, PROBABLY
PATCHY FOG.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY WHILE WARMING
SOME MORE FOR THAT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A SOME STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AT
THIS TIME...BUT EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SOME VALLEY
FOG TO FORM OVER EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER WHERE WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE AIR...AS AIR
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR GO BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. THUS...STEAM FOG
LIKELY NEAR WARM BODIES OF WATER. HAVE GONE WITH FOG IN THE
VICINITY AT BTV BETWEEN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY...AS EXPECTING STEAM FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WINOOSKI RIVER JUST EAST OF THE BTV AIRPORT.
EXPECTINGS SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS BETWEEN
16Z-18Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE. EAST OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 190450
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1250 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1244 AM EDT FRIDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES MADE TO MIN TEMPS.
OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS...NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CURRENT
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES REMAIN AS IS WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE BIG PICTURE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND BE PRETTY MUCH
DONE WITH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS WOULD MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THOSE DAYS
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (AND
PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS (AKA
"RIDGE-O-SAURUS"). "WARM" SUNDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY. STILL WANT
MORE GORY DETAILS? WELL, KEEP READING ON MY FRIENDS...

SUNDAY: BELIEF HERE IS THAT THE SLOWER GFS IS BETTER ON TIMING.
MAKES SENSE WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A
HYBRID LOW PASSING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ACTING TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN A BIT. THINK THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL
BE IN THE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE VERMONT IS MORE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SOUTHERLY JET
STILL IN PLACE, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED FOR SOME SURFACE GUSTS TO
30MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE & CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S (ESPECIALLY VERMONT
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN). GFS, NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED
T-STORM FORMS, AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SHOWERS END AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PROBABLY
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY. CAN`T RULE OUT SPOT SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY WARM -- THOUGH EVEN SHORT CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. PLAYED IT MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BOTH NIGHTS AND HAVE LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD VERY WELL HAVE A MUCH BIGGER SPREAD.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: PRETTY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (AT LEAST 1035MB)
MOVES IN. AT THE SAME TIME 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE START OF A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MEAN PRETTY MUCH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW WARM IT WILL BE BOTH DAYS. EURO INDICATES 925MB TEMPERATURES AT
10C WEDNESDAY UP TO 12C THURSDAY -- WHICH WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY TO 70S THURSDAY. GFS IS MUCH COLDER
WEDNESDAY (3C @ 925MB) AND THEN 10C ON THURSDAY.  OF LATE, THE GFS
IS DOING BETTER WITH THESE 925MB TEMPERATURES, SO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MID/UPPER 60S THURSDAY. COOL OVERNIGHT, PROBABLY
PATCHY FOG.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY WHILE WARMING
SOME MORE FOR THAT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A SOME STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AT
THIS TIME...BUT EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SOME VALLEY
FOG TO FORM OVER EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER WHERE WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE AIR...AS AIR
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR GO BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. THUS...STEAM FOG
LIKELY NEAR WARM BODIES OF WATER. HAVE GONE WITH FOG IN THE
VICINITY AT BTV BETWEEN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY...AS EXPECTING STEAM FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WINOOSKI RIVER JUST EAST OF THE BTV AIRPORT.
EXPECTINGS SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS BETWEEN
16Z-18Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE. EAST OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 190438
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1238 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA PER THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY AND METARS. THESE CLOUDS ARE HAVING
AN IMPACT TO THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS OBS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECASTS. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD FRONT CENTER AROUND H850 WHERE
BAROCLINICITY IS RATHER TIGHT. PER THE RAP13...EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. FOR
THIS UPDATE...DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER INITIALLY WITH IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES REMAIN. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND
ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH
WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE TO PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN CLOUDS WELL INTO
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM
UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING AS THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM...AND
THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KPSF BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 190438
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1238 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA PER THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY AND METARS. THESE CLOUDS ARE HAVING
AN IMPACT TO THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS OBS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECASTS. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD FRONT CENTER AROUND H850 WHERE
BAROCLINICITY IS RATHER TIGHT. PER THE RAP13...EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. FOR
THIS UPDATE...DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER INITIALLY WITH IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES REMAIN. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND
ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH
WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE TO PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN CLOUDS WELL INTO
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM
UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING AS THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM...AND
THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KPSF BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 190438
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1238 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA PER THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY AND METARS. THESE CLOUDS ARE HAVING
AN IMPACT TO THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS OBS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECASTS. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD FRONT CENTER AROUND H850 WHERE
BAROCLINICITY IS RATHER TIGHT. PER THE RAP13...EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. FOR
THIS UPDATE...DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER INITIALLY WITH IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES REMAIN. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND
ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH
WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE TO PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN CLOUDS WELL INTO
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM
UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING AS THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM...AND
THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KPSF BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 190438
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1238 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA PER THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY AND METARS. THESE CLOUDS ARE HAVING
AN IMPACT TO THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS OBS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECASTS. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD FRONT CENTER AROUND H850 WHERE
BAROCLINICITY IS RATHER TIGHT. PER THE RAP13...EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. FOR
THIS UPDATE...DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER INITIALLY WITH IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES REMAIN. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND
ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH
WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE TO PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN CLOUDS WELL INTO
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM
UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING AS THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM...AND
THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KPSF BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KBTV 190229
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1029 PM EDT THURSDAY...LINGERING CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR NRN TIER COUNTIES AS OF 1015 PM...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK. SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER
THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT TO 200 AM HOUR...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGES
WERE NEEDED AND CURRENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES REMAIN AS IS WITH
THIS UPDATE. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE BIG PICTURE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND BE PRETTY MUCH
DONE WITH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS WOULD MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THOSE DAYS
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (AND
PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS (AKA
"RIDGE-O-SAURUS"). "WARM" SUNDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY. STILL WANT
MORE GORY DETAILS? WELL, KEEP READING ON MY FRIENDS...

SUNDAY: BELIEF HERE IS THAT THE SLOWER GFS IS BETTER ON TIMING.
MAKES SENSE WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A
HYBRID LOW PASSING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ACTING TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN A BIT. THINK THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL
BE IN THE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE VERMONT IS MORE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SOUTHERLY JET
STILL IN PLACE, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED FOR SOME SURFACE GUSTS TO
30MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE & CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S (ESPECIALLY VERMONT
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN). GFS, NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED
T-STORM FORMS, AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SHOWERS END AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PROBABLY
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY. CAN`T RULE OUT SPOT SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY WARM -- THOUGH EVEN SHORT CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. PLAYED IT MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BOTH NIGHTS AND HAVE LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD VERY WELL HAVE A MUCH BIGGER SPREAD.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: PRETTY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (AT LEAST 1035MB)
MOVES IN. AT THE SAME TIME 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE START OF A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MEAN PRETTY MUCH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW WARM IT WILL BE BOTH DAYS. EURO INDICATES 925MB TEMPERATURES AT
10C WEDNESDAY UP TO 12C THURSDAY -- WHICH WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY TO 70S THURSDAY. GFS IS MUCH COLDER
WEDNESDAY (3C @ 925MB) AND THEN 10C ON THURSDAY.  OF LATE, THE GFS
IS DOING BETTER WITH THESE 925MB TEMPERATURES, SO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MID/UPPER 60S THURSDAY. COOL OVERNIGHT, PROBABLY
PATCHY FOG.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY WHILE WARMING
SOME MORE FOR THAT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A SOME STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AT
THIS TIME...BUT EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SOME VALLEY
FOG TO FORM OVER EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER WHERE WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE AIR...AS AIR
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR GO BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. THUS...STEAM FOG
LIKELY NEAR WARM BODIES OF WATER. HAVE GONE WITH FOG IN THE
VICINITY AT BTV BETWEEN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY...AS EXPECTING STEAM FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WINOOSKI RIVER JUST EAST OF THE BTV AIRPORT.
EXPECTINGS SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS BETWEEN
16Z-18Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE. EAST OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-
     010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-011-
     012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-
     034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KALY 190200
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ONE LAST BATCH OF CLOUDS BUILDING SOUTH AS THE COLDER AIR BUILDS
SOUTH. CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
TREND TO NEAR CALM. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A LOW LEVEL DEW POINT
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS LIKELY SUPPORTING THE CLOUD
COVER...BUT AGAIN...ALL THIS SHOULD BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING STEADILY...AND ONCE THE SKY CLEARS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AROUND CURRENT FORECAST. SO...JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT DATA
AND TRENDS.

FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE
TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WELL INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING AS THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM...AND
THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KPSF BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV







000
FXUS61 KALY 190200
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ONE LAST BATCH OF CLOUDS BUILDING SOUTH AS THE COLDER AIR BUILDS
SOUTH. CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
TREND TO NEAR CALM. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A LOW LEVEL DEW POINT
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS LIKELY SUPPORTING THE CLOUD
COVER...BUT AGAIN...ALL THIS SHOULD BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING STEADILY...AND ONCE THE SKY CLEARS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AROUND CURRENT FORECAST. SO...JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT DATA
AND TRENDS.

FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE
TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WELL INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING AS THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM...AND
THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KPSF BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV







000
FXUS61 KALY 190200
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ONE LAST BATCH OF CLOUDS BUILDING SOUTH AS THE COLDER AIR BUILDS
SOUTH. CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
TREND TO NEAR CALM. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A LOW LEVEL DEW POINT
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS LIKELY SUPPORTING THE CLOUD
COVER...BUT AGAIN...ALL THIS SHOULD BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING STEADILY...AND ONCE THE SKY CLEARS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AROUND CURRENT FORECAST. SO...JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT DATA
AND TRENDS.

FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE
TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WELL INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING AS THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM...AND
THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KPSF BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV







000
FXUS61 KALY 190200
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ONE LAST BATCH OF CLOUDS BUILDING SOUTH AS THE COLDER AIR BUILDS
SOUTH. CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
TREND TO NEAR CALM. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A LOW LEVEL DEW POINT
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS LIKELY SUPPORTING THE CLOUD
COVER...BUT AGAIN...ALL THIS SHOULD BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING STEADILY...AND ONCE THE SKY CLEARS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AROUND CURRENT FORECAST. SO...JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT DATA
AND TRENDS.

FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE
TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WELL INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING AS THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM...AND
THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KPSF BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 190001
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
801 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO SKY
COVER TO ACCT FOR CURRENT VARIABILITY IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
BLOCKED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LINGERING THIN MOISTURE NEAR 850 MB
MAY KEEP A SOME SPOTS PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT
OVERALL IDEA OF TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT (IF NOT SOONER)
STILL LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK AS TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY UNDER
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A
GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
FINALLY ERODING. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL COMBINE WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION TO CREATE FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS.
FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...EXCEPT GRAND
ISLE COUNTY...AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WITH FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AS
WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MOST FAVORABLE TIME
PERIOD WILL BE FROM 1AM TO 8AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE BIG PICTURE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND BE PRETTY MUCH
DONE WITH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS WOULD MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THOSE DAYS
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (AND
PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS (AKA
"RIDGE-O-SAURUS"). "WARM" SUNDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY. STILL WANT
MORE GORY DETAILS? WELL, KEEP READING ON MY FRIENDS...

SUNDAY: BELIEF HERE IS THAT THE SLOWER GFS IS BETTER ON TIMING.
MAKES SENSE WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A
HYBRID LOW PASSING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ACTING TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN A BIT. THINK THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL
BE IN THE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE VERMONT IS MORE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SOUTHERLY JET
STILL IN PLACE, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED FOR SOME SURFACE GUSTS TO
30MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE & CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S (ESPECIALLY VERMONT
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN). GFS, NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED
T-STORM FORMS, AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SHOWERS END AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PROBABLY
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY. CAN`T RULE OUT SPOT SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY WARM -- THOUGH EVEN SHORT CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. PLAYED IT MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BOTH NIGHTS AND HAVE LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD VERY WELL HAVE A MUCH BIGGER SPREAD.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: PRETTY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (AT LEAST 1035MB)
MOVES IN. AT THE SAME TIME 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE START OF A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MEAN PRETTY MUCH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW WARM IT WILL BE BOTH DAYS. EURO INDICATES 925MB TEMPERATURES AT
10C WEDNESDAY UP TO 12C THURSDAY -- WHICH WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY TO 70S THURSDAY. GFS IS MUCH COLDER
WEDNESDAY (3C @ 925MB) AND THEN 10C ON THURSDAY.  OF LATE, THE GFS
IS DOING BETTER WITH THESE 925MB TEMPERATURES, SO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MID/UPPER 60S THURSDAY. COOL OVERNIGHT, PROBABLY
PATCHY FOG.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY WHILE WARMING
SOME MORE FOR THAT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A SOME STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AT
THIS TIME...BUT EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SOME VALLEY
FOG TO FORM OVER EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER WHERE WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE AIR...AS AIR
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR GO BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. THUS...STEAM FOG
LIKELY NEAR WARM BODIES OF WATER. HAVE GONE WITH FOG IN THE
VICINITY AT BTV BETWEEN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY...AS EXPECTING STEAM FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WINOOSKI RIVER JUST EAST OF THE BTV AIRPORT.
EXPECTINGS SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS BETWEEN
16Z-18Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE. EAST OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH
CLIMATE...NASH









000
FXUS61 KBTV 190001
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
801 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO SKY
COVER TO ACCT FOR CURRENT VARIABILITY IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
BLOCKED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LINGERING THIN MOISTURE NEAR 850 MB
MAY KEEP A SOME SPOTS PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT
OVERALL IDEA OF TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT (IF NOT SOONER)
STILL LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK AS TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY UNDER
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A
GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
FINALLY ERODING. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL COMBINE WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION TO CREATE FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS.
FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...EXCEPT GRAND
ISLE COUNTY...AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WITH FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AS
WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MOST FAVORABLE TIME
PERIOD WILL BE FROM 1AM TO 8AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE BIG PICTURE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND BE PRETTY MUCH
DONE WITH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS WOULD MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THOSE DAYS
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (AND
PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS (AKA
"RIDGE-O-SAURUS"). "WARM" SUNDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY. STILL WANT
MORE GORY DETAILS? WELL, KEEP READING ON MY FRIENDS...

SUNDAY: BELIEF HERE IS THAT THE SLOWER GFS IS BETTER ON TIMING.
MAKES SENSE WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A
HYBRID LOW PASSING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ACTING TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN A BIT. THINK THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL
BE IN THE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE VERMONT IS MORE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SOUTHERLY JET
STILL IN PLACE, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED FOR SOME SURFACE GUSTS TO
30MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE & CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S (ESPECIALLY VERMONT
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN). GFS, NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED
T-STORM FORMS, AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SHOWERS END AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PROBABLY
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY. CAN`T RULE OUT SPOT SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY WARM -- THOUGH EVEN SHORT CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. PLAYED IT MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BOTH NIGHTS AND HAVE LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD VERY WELL HAVE A MUCH BIGGER SPREAD.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: PRETTY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (AT LEAST 1035MB)
MOVES IN. AT THE SAME TIME 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE START OF A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MEAN PRETTY MUCH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW WARM IT WILL BE BOTH DAYS. EURO INDICATES 925MB TEMPERATURES AT
10C WEDNESDAY UP TO 12C THURSDAY -- WHICH WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY TO 70S THURSDAY. GFS IS MUCH COLDER
WEDNESDAY (3C @ 925MB) AND THEN 10C ON THURSDAY.  OF LATE, THE GFS
IS DOING BETTER WITH THESE 925MB TEMPERATURES, SO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MID/UPPER 60S THURSDAY. COOL OVERNIGHT, PROBABLY
PATCHY FOG.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY WHILE WARMING
SOME MORE FOR THAT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A SOME STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AT
THIS TIME...BUT EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SOME VALLEY
FOG TO FORM OVER EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER WHERE WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE AIR...AS AIR
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR GO BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. THUS...STEAM FOG
LIKELY NEAR WARM BODIES OF WATER. HAVE GONE WITH FOG IN THE
VICINITY AT BTV BETWEEN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY...AS EXPECTING STEAM FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WINOOSKI RIVER JUST EAST OF THE BTV AIRPORT.
EXPECTINGS SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS BETWEEN
16Z-18Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE. EAST OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH
CLIMATE...NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 182319
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO SKY
COVER TO ACCT FOR CURRENT VARIABILITY IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
BLOCKED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LINGERING THIN MOISTURE NEAR 850 MB
MAY KEEP A SOME SPOTS PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT
OVERALL IDEA OF TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT (IF NOT SOONER)
STILL LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK AS TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY UNDER
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A
GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
FINALLY ERODING. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL COMBINE WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION TO CREATE FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS.
FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...EXCEPT GRAND
ISLE COUNTY...AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WITH FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AS
WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MOST FAVORABLE TIME
PERIOD WILL BE FROM 1AM TO 8AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE BIG PICTURE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND BE PRETTY MUCH
DONE WITH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS WOULD MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THOSE DAYS
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (AND
PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS (AKA
"RIDGE-O-SAURUS"). "WARM" SUNDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY. STILL WANT
MORE GORY DETAILS? WELL, KEEP READING ON MY FRIENDS...

SUNDAY: BELIEF HERE IS THAT THE SLOWER GFS IS BETTER ON TIMING.
MAKES SENSE WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A
HYBRID LOW PASSING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ACTING TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN A BIT. THINK THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL
BE IN THE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE VERMONT IS MORE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SOUTHERLY JET
STILL IN PLACE, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED FOR SOME SURFACE GUSTS TO
30MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE & CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S (ESPECIALLY VERMONT
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN). GFS, NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED
T-STORM FORMS, AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SHOWERS END AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PROBABLY
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY. CAN`T RULE OUT SPOT SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY WARM -- THOUGH EVEN SHORT CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. PLAYED IT MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BOTH NIGHTS AND HAVE LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD VERY WELL HAVE A MUCH BIGGER SPREAD.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: PRETTY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (AT LEAST 1035MB)
MOVES IN. AT THE SAME TIME 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE START OF A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MEAN PRETTY MUCH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW WARM IT WILL BE BOTH DAYS. EURO INDICATES 925MB TEMPERATURES AT
10C WEDNESDAY UP TO 12C THURSDAY -- WHICH WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY TO 70S THURSDAY. GFS IS MUCH COLDER
WEDNESDAY (3C @ 925MB) AND THEN 10C ON THURSDAY.  OF LATE, THE GFS
IS DOING BETTER WITH THESE 925MB TEMPERATURES, SO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MID/UPPER 60S THURSDAY. COOL OVERNIGHT, PROBABLY
PATCHY FOG.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY WHILE WARMING
SOME MORE FOR THAT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN
ITS WAKE IS A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS WITH BASES IN
THE 2000-4000FT RANGE. SO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST, BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RISE AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING BREAKS DEVELOPING. THUS EXPECT BY 22Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING. UNLIKE OTHER NIGHTS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTED A LOT OF FOG.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DOWN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY (SO IF
WE DID A TAF FOR SPRINGFIELD/VSF, IT WOULD SHOW IFR), BUT FOR OUR
OFFICIAL TAF SITES, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. JUST FROST. FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 182319
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO SKY
COVER TO ACCT FOR CURRENT VARIABILITY IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
BLOCKED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LINGERING THIN MOISTURE NEAR 850 MB
MAY KEEP A SOME SPOTS PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT
OVERALL IDEA OF TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT (IF NOT SOONER)
STILL LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK AS TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY UNDER
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A
GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
FINALLY ERODING. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL COMBINE WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION TO CREATE FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS.
FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...EXCEPT GRAND
ISLE COUNTY...AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WITH FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AS
WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MOST FAVORABLE TIME
PERIOD WILL BE FROM 1AM TO 8AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE BIG PICTURE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND BE PRETTY MUCH
DONE WITH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS WOULD MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THOSE DAYS
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (AND
PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS (AKA
"RIDGE-O-SAURUS"). "WARM" SUNDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY. STILL WANT
MORE GORY DETAILS? WELL, KEEP READING ON MY FRIENDS...

SUNDAY: BELIEF HERE IS THAT THE SLOWER GFS IS BETTER ON TIMING.
MAKES SENSE WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A
HYBRID LOW PASSING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ACTING TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN A BIT. THINK THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL
BE IN THE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE VERMONT IS MORE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SOUTHERLY JET
STILL IN PLACE, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED FOR SOME SURFACE GUSTS TO
30MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE & CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S (ESPECIALLY VERMONT
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN). GFS, NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED
T-STORM FORMS, AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SHOWERS END AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PROBABLY
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY. CAN`T RULE OUT SPOT SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY WARM -- THOUGH EVEN SHORT CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. PLAYED IT MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BOTH NIGHTS AND HAVE LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD VERY WELL HAVE A MUCH BIGGER SPREAD.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: PRETTY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (AT LEAST 1035MB)
MOVES IN. AT THE SAME TIME 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE START OF A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MEAN PRETTY MUCH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW WARM IT WILL BE BOTH DAYS. EURO INDICATES 925MB TEMPERATURES AT
10C WEDNESDAY UP TO 12C THURSDAY -- WHICH WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY TO 70S THURSDAY. GFS IS MUCH COLDER
WEDNESDAY (3C @ 925MB) AND THEN 10C ON THURSDAY.  OF LATE, THE GFS
IS DOING BETTER WITH THESE 925MB TEMPERATURES, SO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MID/UPPER 60S THURSDAY. COOL OVERNIGHT, PROBABLY
PATCHY FOG.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY WHILE WARMING
SOME MORE FOR THAT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN
ITS WAKE IS A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS WITH BASES IN
THE 2000-4000FT RANGE. SO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST, BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RISE AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING BREAKS DEVELOPING. THUS EXPECT BY 22Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING. UNLIKE OTHER NIGHTS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTED A LOT OF FOG.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DOWN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY (SO IF
WE DID A TAF FOR SPRINGFIELD/VSF, IT WOULD SHOW IFR), BUT FOR OUR
OFFICIAL TAF SITES, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. JUST FROST. FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 182319
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO SKY
COVER TO ACCT FOR CURRENT VARIABILITY IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
BLOCKED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LINGERING THIN MOISTURE NEAR 850 MB
MAY KEEP A SOME SPOTS PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT
OVERALL IDEA OF TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT (IF NOT SOONER)
STILL LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK AS TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY UNDER
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A
GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
FINALLY ERODING. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL COMBINE WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION TO CREATE FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS.
FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...EXCEPT GRAND
ISLE COUNTY...AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WITH FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AS
WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MOST FAVORABLE TIME
PERIOD WILL BE FROM 1AM TO 8AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE BIG PICTURE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND BE PRETTY MUCH
DONE WITH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS WOULD MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THOSE DAYS
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (AND
PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS (AKA
"RIDGE-O-SAURUS"). "WARM" SUNDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY. STILL WANT
MORE GORY DETAILS? WELL, KEEP READING ON MY FRIENDS...

SUNDAY: BELIEF HERE IS THAT THE SLOWER GFS IS BETTER ON TIMING.
MAKES SENSE WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A
HYBRID LOW PASSING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ACTING TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN A BIT. THINK THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL
BE IN THE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE VERMONT IS MORE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SOUTHERLY JET
STILL IN PLACE, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED FOR SOME SURFACE GUSTS TO
30MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE & CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S (ESPECIALLY VERMONT
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN). GFS, NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED
T-STORM FORMS, AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SHOWERS END AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PROBABLY
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY. CAN`T RULE OUT SPOT SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY WARM -- THOUGH EVEN SHORT CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. PLAYED IT MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BOTH NIGHTS AND HAVE LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD VERY WELL HAVE A MUCH BIGGER SPREAD.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: PRETTY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (AT LEAST 1035MB)
MOVES IN. AT THE SAME TIME 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE START OF A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MEAN PRETTY MUCH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW WARM IT WILL BE BOTH DAYS. EURO INDICATES 925MB TEMPERATURES AT
10C WEDNESDAY UP TO 12C THURSDAY -- WHICH WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY TO 70S THURSDAY. GFS IS MUCH COLDER
WEDNESDAY (3C @ 925MB) AND THEN 10C ON THURSDAY.  OF LATE, THE GFS
IS DOING BETTER WITH THESE 925MB TEMPERATURES, SO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MID/UPPER 60S THURSDAY. COOL OVERNIGHT, PROBABLY
PATCHY FOG.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY WHILE WARMING
SOME MORE FOR THAT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN
ITS WAKE IS A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS WITH BASES IN
THE 2000-4000FT RANGE. SO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST, BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RISE AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING BREAKS DEVELOPING. THUS EXPECT BY 22Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING. UNLIKE OTHER NIGHTS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTED A LOT OF FOG.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DOWN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY (SO IF
WE DID A TAF FOR SPRINGFIELD/VSF, IT WOULD SHOW IFR), BUT FOR OUR
OFFICIAL TAF SITES, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. JUST FROST. FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 182319
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO SKY
COVER TO ACCT FOR CURRENT VARIABILITY IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
BLOCKED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LINGERING THIN MOISTURE NEAR 850 MB
MAY KEEP A SOME SPOTS PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT
OVERALL IDEA OF TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT (IF NOT SOONER)
STILL LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK AS TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY UNDER
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A
GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
FINALLY ERODING. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL COMBINE WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION TO CREATE FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS.
FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...EXCEPT GRAND
ISLE COUNTY...AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WITH FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AS
WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MOST FAVORABLE TIME
PERIOD WILL BE FROM 1AM TO 8AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE BIG PICTURE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND BE PRETTY MUCH
DONE WITH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS WOULD MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THOSE DAYS
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (AND
PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS (AKA
"RIDGE-O-SAURUS"). "WARM" SUNDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY. STILL WANT
MORE GORY DETAILS? WELL, KEEP READING ON MY FRIENDS...

SUNDAY: BELIEF HERE IS THAT THE SLOWER GFS IS BETTER ON TIMING.
MAKES SENSE WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A
HYBRID LOW PASSING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ACTING TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN A BIT. THINK THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL
BE IN THE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE VERMONT IS MORE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SOUTHERLY JET
STILL IN PLACE, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED FOR SOME SURFACE GUSTS TO
30MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE & CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S (ESPECIALLY VERMONT
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN). GFS, NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED
T-STORM FORMS, AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SHOWERS END AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PROBABLY
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY. CAN`T RULE OUT SPOT SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY WARM -- THOUGH EVEN SHORT CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. PLAYED IT MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BOTH NIGHTS AND HAVE LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD VERY WELL HAVE A MUCH BIGGER SPREAD.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: PRETTY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (AT LEAST 1035MB)
MOVES IN. AT THE SAME TIME 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE START OF A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MEAN PRETTY MUCH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW WARM IT WILL BE BOTH DAYS. EURO INDICATES 925MB TEMPERATURES AT
10C WEDNESDAY UP TO 12C THURSDAY -- WHICH WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY TO 70S THURSDAY. GFS IS MUCH COLDER
WEDNESDAY (3C @ 925MB) AND THEN 10C ON THURSDAY.  OF LATE, THE GFS
IS DOING BETTER WITH THESE 925MB TEMPERATURES, SO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MID/UPPER 60S THURSDAY. COOL OVERNIGHT, PROBABLY
PATCHY FOG.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY WHILE WARMING
SOME MORE FOR THAT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN
ITS WAKE IS A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS WITH BASES IN
THE 2000-4000FT RANGE. SO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST, BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RISE AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING BREAKS DEVELOPING. THUS EXPECT BY 22Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING. UNLIKE OTHER NIGHTS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTED A LOT OF FOG.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DOWN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY (SO IF
WE DID A TAF FOR SPRINGFIELD/VSF, IT WOULD SHOW IFR), BUT FOR OUR
OFFICIAL TAF SITES, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. JUST FROST. FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KALY 182314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SKY SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
EVERYWHERE AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. JUST SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED
ON CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS.

FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE
TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WELL INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING AS THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM...AND
THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KPSF BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/NAS
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 182314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SKY SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
EVERYWHERE AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. JUST SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED
ON CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS.

FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE
TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WELL INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING AS THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM...AND
THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KPSF BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/NAS
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV







000
FXUS61 KALY 181954
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
354 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 354 PM EDT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON...JUST HAVING GONE THROUGH THE CAPITAL REGION AT
THIS HOUR. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUE...WITH EVEN A
SHOWER OR TWO NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO SARATOGA COUNTY. THIS
ACTIVITY...WHILE SHALLOW...IS CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND SHOULD WANE
BY DARK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL USHER IN A COOL
AIR MASS FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE
TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WELL INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 1730Z...RADAR LOOPS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THESE SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES...SO HAVE
ONLY VCSH IN THE TAFS. THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR NONE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL STILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION TO SUPPRESS MOST FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP OCNL IFR FOG OUT OF THE KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES
BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
P6SM SKC CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
KTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL. THERE MAY ALSO BE OCNL GUSTS TO 15
KTS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN NORTH
TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV







000
FXUS61 KALY 181954
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
354 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 354 PM EDT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON...JUST HAVING GONE THROUGH THE CAPITAL REGION AT
THIS HOUR. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUE...WITH EVEN A
SHOWER OR TWO NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO SARATOGA COUNTY. THIS
ACTIVITY...WHILE SHALLOW...IS CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND SHOULD WANE
BY DARK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL USHER IN A COOL
AIR MASS FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE
TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WELL INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 1730Z...RADAR LOOPS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THESE SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES...SO HAVE
ONLY VCSH IN THE TAFS. THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR NONE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL STILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION TO SUPPRESS MOST FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP OCNL IFR FOG OUT OF THE KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES
BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
P6SM SKC CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
KTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL. THERE MAY ALSO BE OCNL GUSTS TO 15
KTS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN NORTH
TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 181937
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
337 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE FINALLY ERODING. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL COMBINE WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION TO CREATE FROST AND FREEZE
CONDITIONS. FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY...AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT. MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD WILL BE FROM 1AM TO 8AM
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE BIG PICTURE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND BE PRETTY MUCH
DONE WITH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS WOULD MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THOSE DAYS
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (AND
PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS (AKA
"RIDGE-O-SAURUS"). "WARM" SUNDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY. STILL WANT
MORE GORY DETAILS? WELL, KEEP READING ON MY FRIENDS...

SUNDAY: BELIEF HERE IS THAT THE SLOWER GFS IS BETTER ON TIMING.
MAKES SENSE WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A
HYBRID LOW PASSING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ACTING TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN A BIT. THINK THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL
BE IN THE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE VERMONT IS MORE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SOUTHERLY JET
STILL IN PLACE, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED FOR SOME SURFACE GUSTS TO
30MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE & CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S (ESPECIALLY VERMONT
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN). GFS, NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED
T-STORM FORMS, AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SHOWERS END AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PROBABLY
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY. CAN`T RULE OUT SPOT SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY WARM -- THOUGH EVEN SHORT CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. PLAYED IT MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BOTH NIGHTS AND HAVE LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD VERY WELL HAVE A MUCH BIGGER SPREAD.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: PRETTY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (AT LEAST 1035MB)
MOVES IN. AT THE SAME TIME 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE START OF A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MEAN PRETTY MUCH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW WARM IT WILL BE BOTH DAYS. EURO INDICATES 925MB TEMPERATURES AT
10C WEDNESDAY UP TO 12C THURSDAY -- WHICH WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY TO 70S THURSDAY. GFS IS MUCH COLDER
WEDNESDAY (3C @ 925MB) AND THEN 10C ON THURSDAY.  OF LATE, THE GFS
IS DOING BETTER WITH THESE 925MB TEMPERATURES, SO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MID/UPPER 60S THURSDAY. COOL OVERNIGHT, PROBABLY
PATCHY FOG.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY WHILE WARMING
SOME MORE FOR THAT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN
ITS WAKE IS A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS WITH BASES IN
THE 2000-4000FT RANGE. SO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST, BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RISE AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING BREAKS DEVELOPING. THUS EXPECT BY 22Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING. UNLIKE OTHER NIGHTS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTED A LOT OF FOG.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DOWN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY (SO IF
WE DID A TAF FOR SPRINGFIELD/VSF, IT WOULD SHOW IFR), BUT FOR OUR
OFFICIAL TAF SITES, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. JUST FROST. FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH









000
FXUS61 KBTV 181937
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
337 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE FINALLY ERODING. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL COMBINE WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION TO CREATE FROST AND FREEZE
CONDITIONS. FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY...AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT. MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD WILL BE FROM 1AM TO 8AM
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE BIG PICTURE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND BE PRETTY MUCH
DONE WITH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS WOULD MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THOSE DAYS
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (AND
PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS (AKA
"RIDGE-O-SAURUS"). "WARM" SUNDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY. STILL WANT
MORE GORY DETAILS? WELL, KEEP READING ON MY FRIENDS...

SUNDAY: BELIEF HERE IS THAT THE SLOWER GFS IS BETTER ON TIMING.
MAKES SENSE WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A
HYBRID LOW PASSING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ACTING TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN A BIT. THINK THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL
BE IN THE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE VERMONT IS MORE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SOUTHERLY JET
STILL IN PLACE, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED FOR SOME SURFACE GUSTS TO
30MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE & CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S (ESPECIALLY VERMONT
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN). GFS, NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED
T-STORM FORMS, AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SHOWERS END AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PROBABLY
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY. CAN`T RULE OUT SPOT SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY WARM -- THOUGH EVEN SHORT CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. PLAYED IT MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BOTH NIGHTS AND HAVE LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD VERY WELL HAVE A MUCH BIGGER SPREAD.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: PRETTY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (AT LEAST 1035MB)
MOVES IN. AT THE SAME TIME 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE START OF A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MEAN PRETTY MUCH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW WARM IT WILL BE BOTH DAYS. EURO INDICATES 925MB TEMPERATURES AT
10C WEDNESDAY UP TO 12C THURSDAY -- WHICH WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY TO 70S THURSDAY. GFS IS MUCH COLDER
WEDNESDAY (3C @ 925MB) AND THEN 10C ON THURSDAY.  OF LATE, THE GFS
IS DOING BETTER WITH THESE 925MB TEMPERATURES, SO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MID/UPPER 60S THURSDAY. COOL OVERNIGHT, PROBABLY
PATCHY FOG.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY WHILE WARMING
SOME MORE FOR THAT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN
ITS WAKE IS A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS WITH BASES IN
THE 2000-4000FT RANGE. SO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST, BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RISE AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING BREAKS DEVELOPING. THUS EXPECT BY 22Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING. UNLIKE OTHER NIGHTS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTED A LOT OF FOG.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DOWN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY (SO IF
WE DID A TAF FOR SPRINGFIELD/VSF, IT WOULD SHOW IFR), BUT FOR OUR
OFFICIAL TAF SITES, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. JUST FROST. FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH








000
FXUS61 KALY 181750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN FULTON/SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER POPPING UP ANYWHERE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SARATOGA REGION SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION NORTHWARD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

WE HAVE NOT EXPANDED THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANY FURTHER EXCEPT
FOR ADDING NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY /THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/ TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA EARLIER.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO
THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE VELOCITY
OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHICH
IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 1730Z...RADAR LOOPS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THESE SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES...SO HAVE
ONLY VCSH IN THE TAFS. THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR NONE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL STILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION TO SUPPRESS MOST FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP OCNL IFR FOG OUT OF THE KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES
BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
P6SM SKC CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
KTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL. THERE MAY ALSO BE OCNL GUSTS TO 15
KTS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN NORTH
TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 181750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN FULTON/SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER POPPING UP ANYWHERE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SARATOGA REGION SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION NORTHWARD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

WE HAVE NOT EXPANDED THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANY FURTHER EXCEPT
FOR ADDING NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY /THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/ TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA EARLIER.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO
THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE VELOCITY
OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHICH
IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 1730Z...RADAR LOOPS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THESE SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES...SO HAVE
ONLY VCSH IN THE TAFS. THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR NONE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL STILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION TO SUPPRESS MOST FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP OCNL IFR FOG OUT OF THE KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES
BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
P6SM SKC CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
KTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL. THERE MAY ALSO BE OCNL GUSTS TO 15
KTS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN NORTH
TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM











000
FXUS61 KALY 181736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN FULTON/SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER POPPING UP ANYWHERE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SARATOGA REGION SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION NORTHWARD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

WE HAVE NOT EXPANDED THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANY FURTHER EXCEPT
FOR ADDING NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY /THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/ TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA EARLIER.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO
THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE VELOCITY
OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHICH
IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 181736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN FULTON/SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER POPPING UP ANYWHERE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SARATOGA REGION SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION NORTHWARD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

WE HAVE NOT EXPANDED THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANY FURTHER EXCEPT
FOR ADDING NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY /THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/ TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA EARLIER.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO
THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE VELOCITY
OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHICH
IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 181736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN FULTON/SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER POPPING UP ANYWHERE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SARATOGA REGION SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION NORTHWARD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

WE HAVE NOT EXPANDED THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANY FURTHER EXCEPT
FOR ADDING NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY /THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/ TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA EARLIER.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO
THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE VELOCITY
OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHICH
IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 181736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN FULTON/SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER POPPING UP ANYWHERE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SARATOGA REGION SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION NORTHWARD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

WE HAVE NOT EXPANDED THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANY FURTHER EXCEPT
FOR ADDING NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY /THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/ TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA EARLIER.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO
THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE VELOCITY
OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHICH
IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 181730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS
AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1254 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
RESPECT TO PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLOWER CLEARING ON THE CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST VERMONT WHERE THE SUN
WAS OUT EARLIER THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END
AND HAVE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. REST OF GRIDS REMAIN UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIR MASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-1000MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN
ITS WAKE IS A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS WITH BASES IN
THE 2000-4000FT RANGE. SO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST, BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RISE AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING BREAKS DEVELOPING. THUS EXPECT BY 22Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING. UNLIKE OTHER NIGHTS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTED A LOT OF FOG.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DOWN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY (SO IF
WE DID A TAF FOR SPRINGFIELD/VSF, IT WOULD SHOW IFR), BUT FOR OUR
OFFICIAL TAF SITES, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. JUST FROST. FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 181730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS
AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1254 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
RESPECT TO PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLOWER CLEARING ON THE CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST VERMONT WHERE THE SUN
WAS OUT EARLIER THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END
AND HAVE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. REST OF GRIDS REMAIN UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIR MASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-1000MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN
ITS WAKE IS A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS WITH BASES IN
THE 2000-4000FT RANGE. SO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST, BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RISE AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING BREAKS DEVELOPING. THUS EXPECT BY 22Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING. UNLIKE OTHER NIGHTS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTED A LOT OF FOG.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DOWN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY (SO IF
WE DID A TAF FOR SPRINGFIELD/VSF, IT WOULD SHOW IFR), BUT FOR OUR
OFFICIAL TAF SITES, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. JUST FROST. FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 181730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS
AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1254 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
RESPECT TO PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLOWER CLEARING ON THE CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST VERMONT WHERE THE SUN
WAS OUT EARLIER THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END
AND HAVE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. REST OF GRIDS REMAIN UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIR MASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-1000MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN
ITS WAKE IS A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS WITH BASES IN
THE 2000-4000FT RANGE. SO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST, BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RISE AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING BREAKS DEVELOPING. THUS EXPECT BY 22Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING. UNLIKE OTHER NIGHTS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTED A LOT OF FOG.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DOWN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY (SO IF
WE DID A TAF FOR SPRINGFIELD/VSF, IT WOULD SHOW IFR), BUT FOR OUR
OFFICIAL TAF SITES, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. JUST FROST. FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 181730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS
AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1254 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
RESPECT TO PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLOWER CLEARING ON THE CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST VERMONT WHERE THE SUN
WAS OUT EARLIER THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END
AND HAVE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. REST OF GRIDS REMAIN UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIR MASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-1000MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN
ITS WAKE IS A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS WITH BASES IN
THE 2000-4000FT RANGE. SO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST, BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RISE AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING BREAKS DEVELOPING. THUS EXPECT BY 22Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING. UNLIKE OTHER NIGHTS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTED A LOT OF FOG.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DOWN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY (SO IF
WE DID A TAF FOR SPRINGFIELD/VSF, IT WOULD SHOW IFR), BUT FOR OUR
OFFICIAL TAF SITES, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. JUST FROST. FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KALY 181726
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN FULTON/SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER POPPING UP ANYWHERE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SARATOGA REGION SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION NORTHWARD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

WE HAVE NOT EXPANDED THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANY FURTHER EXCEPT
FOR ADDING NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY /THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/ TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA EARLIER.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 181726
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN FULTON/SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER POPPING UP ANYWHERE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SARATOGA REGION SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION NORTHWARD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

WE HAVE NOT EXPANDED THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANY FURTHER EXCEPT
FOR ADDING NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY /THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/ TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA EARLIER.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 181654
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1254 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS
AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1254 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
RESPECT TO PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLOWER CLEARING ON THE CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST VERMONT WHERE THE SUN
WAS OUT EARLIER THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END
AND HAVE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. REST OF GRIDS REMAIN UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIR MASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-1000MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR-VFR CIGS AND IFR
AT KSLK. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW NO RESTRICTIONS
TO VSBY SO HAVE KEPT IN SOME VCSH FOR THE MORNING HOURS TO COVER
THIS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT AFTER 00Z. NOT THINKING
ANY FOG FOR TONIGHT AS SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE QUITE LOW AND
TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 181654
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1254 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS
AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1254 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
RESPECT TO PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLOWER CLEARING ON THE CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST VERMONT WHERE THE SUN
WAS OUT EARLIER THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END
AND HAVE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. REST OF GRIDS REMAIN UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIR MASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-1000MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR-VFR CIGS AND IFR
AT KSLK. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW NO RESTRICTIONS
TO VSBY SO HAVE KEPT IN SOME VCSH FOR THE MORNING HOURS TO COVER
THIS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT AFTER 00Z. NOT THINKING
ANY FOG FOR TONIGHT AS SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE QUITE LOW AND
TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH








000
FXUS61 KALY 181549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE ADDED NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY (THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS) TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME
HOURLY TEMP ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND ALSO
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS FOR TONIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-082>
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/LFM
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...














000
FXUS61 KALY 181549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE ADDED NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY (THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS) TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME
HOURLY TEMP ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND ALSO
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS FOR TONIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-082>
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/LFM
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...













000
FXUS61 KBTV 181428
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1028 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS
AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1028 AM EDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOW TO CLEAR TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO
WARM TODAY. BASED ON THIS HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOUT
2 TO 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LONGER DURATION OF CLOUDS TODAY...OTHERWISE REST OF GRIDS
REMAIN THE SAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIR MASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-1000MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR-VFR CIGS AND IFR
AT KSLK. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW NO RESTRICTIONS
TO VSBY SO HAVE KEPT IN SOME VCSH FOR THE MORNING HOURS TO COVER
THIS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT AFTER 00Z. NOT THINKING
ANY FOG FOR TONIGHT AS SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE QUITE LOW AND
TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 181428
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1028 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS
AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1028 AM EDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOW TO CLEAR TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO
WARM TODAY. BASED ON THIS HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOUT
2 TO 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LONGER DURATION OF CLOUDS TODAY...OTHERWISE REST OF GRIDS
REMAIN THE SAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIR MASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-1000MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR-VFR CIGS AND IFR
AT KSLK. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW NO RESTRICTIONS
TO VSBY SO HAVE KEPT IN SOME VCSH FOR THE MORNING HOURS TO COVER
THIS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT AFTER 00Z. NOT THINKING
ANY FOG FOR TONIGHT AS SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE QUITE LOW AND
TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH








000
FXUS61 KALY 181157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
757 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ALONG A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TO EVEN A FEW LOWER
70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KALY 181157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
757 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ALONG A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TO EVEN A FEW LOWER
70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KALY 181157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
757 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ALONG A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TO EVEN A FEW LOWER
70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KALY 181157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
757 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ALONG A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TO EVEN A FEW LOWER
70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KBTV 181141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD
FROST TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
SECTIONS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS FOR THIS
MORNING WITH LATEST UPDATE. COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IS BEING ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-1000MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR-VFR CIGS AND IFR
AT KSLK. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW NO RESTRICTIONS
TO VSBY SO HAVE KEPT IN SOME VCSH FOR THE MORNING HOURS TO COVER
THIS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT AFTER 00Z. NOT THINKING
ANY FOG FOR TONIGHT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUITE LOW AND
TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 181141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD
FROST TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
SECTIONS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS FOR THIS
MORNING WITH LATEST UPDATE. COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IS BEING ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-1000MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR-VFR CIGS AND IFR
AT KSLK. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW NO RESTRICTIONS
TO VSBY SO HAVE KEPT IN SOME VCSH FOR THE MORNING HOURS TO COVER
THIS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT AFTER 00Z. NOT THINKING
ANY FOG FOR TONIGHT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUITE LOW AND
TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 181127
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD
FROST TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
SECTIONS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS FOR THIS
MORNING WITH LATEST UPDATE. COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IS BEING ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-100MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT-OVC VFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR BY MID-DAY. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
SPRINKLES ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. FEEL THIS WASN`T EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN
THE TAF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER 00Z. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A
TIME AT PBG AND MSS) FOR THURSDAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 181127
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD
FROST TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
SECTIONS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS FOR THIS
MORNING WITH LATEST UPDATE. COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IS BEING ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-100MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT-OVC VFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR BY MID-DAY. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
SPRINKLES ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. FEEL THIS WASN`T EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN
THE TAF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER 00Z. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A
TIME AT PBG AND MSS) FOR THURSDAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 181013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
613 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ALONG A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TO EVEN A FEW LOWER
70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...AREAS OF GROUND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
INTERMITTENT VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT...THE POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION IN
TAFS...ESP AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES.

AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE
5000-7000 FT RANGE AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL AFTER
22Z/WED.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 181013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
613 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ALONG A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TO EVEN A FEW LOWER
70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...AREAS OF GROUND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
INTERMITTENT VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT...THE POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION IN
TAFS...ESP AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES.

AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE
5000-7000 FT RANGE AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL AFTER
22Z/WED.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 181013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
613 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ALONG A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TO EVEN A FEW LOWER
70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...AREAS OF GROUND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
INTERMITTENT VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT...THE POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION IN
TAFS...ESP AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES.

AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE
5000-7000 FT RANGE AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL AFTER
22Z/WED.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 181013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
613 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ALONG A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TO EVEN A FEW LOWER
70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...AREAS OF GROUND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
INTERMITTENT VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT...THE POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION IN
TAFS...ESP AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES.

AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE
5000-7000 FT RANGE AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL AFTER
22Z/WED.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KBTV 180836
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
436 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD
FROST TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
SECTIONS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES AT THIS TIME...WILL PUSH SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THIS MORNING...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-100MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT-OVC VFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR BY MID-DAY. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
SPRINKLES ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. FEEL THIS WASN`T EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN
THE TAF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER 00Z. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A
TIME AT PBG AND MSS) FOR THURSDAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 180836
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
436 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD
FROST TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
SECTIONS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES AT THIS TIME...WILL PUSH SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THIS MORNING...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-100MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT-OVC VFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR BY MID-DAY. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
SPRINKLES ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. FEEL THIS WASN`T EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN
THE TAF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER 00Z. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A
TIME AT PBG AND MSS) FOR THURSDAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 180836
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
436 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD
FROST TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
SECTIONS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES AT THIS TIME...WILL PUSH SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THIS MORNING...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-100MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT-OVC VFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR BY MID-DAY. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
SPRINKLES ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. FEEL THIS WASN`T EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN
THE TAF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER 00Z. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A
TIME AT PBG AND MSS) FOR THURSDAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 180836
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
436 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD
FROST TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
SECTIONS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES AT THIS TIME...WILL PUSH SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THIS MORNING...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-100MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT-OVC VFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR BY MID-DAY. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
SPRINKLES ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. FEEL THIS WASN`T EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN
THE TAF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER 00Z. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A
TIME AT PBG AND MSS) FOR THURSDAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KALY 180808
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 330 AM...COLD FRONT IS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOW
BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SHOWERS WILL BE
LIGHT IN INTENSITY AS THEY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD WITH WEAK FORCING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING IN...TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...AREAS OF GROUND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
INTERMITTENT VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT...THE POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION IN
TAFS...ESP AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES.

AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE
5000-7000 FT RANGE AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL AFTER
22Z/WED.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS STAFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 180801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS AWAY FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. FRONT NOW
SOUTH OF OTTAWA OF OTTAWA AND MONTREAL...AND CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH TOWARDS FORECAST AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT LOOK REASONABLE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 721 PM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING WITH
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES
SHOULD BE AROUND 06Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...09Z CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AREAS THAT START
CLEAR THIS EVENING WILL DROP RAPIDLY AT FIRST...BUT OVERALL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WON`T BE MET UNTIL LATE AFTER FRONT
PASSES...GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS
THE FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ALSO DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPR 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. HIGHS
THURSDAY OF MID-UPR 50S NRN AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND LATER
ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT GRAND ISLE
COUNTY (CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS)...WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 31-35F FOR MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (JUST A FROST IN
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE)...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

AFTER A FROSTY START WITH SOME VALLEY FOG...FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60F IN MOST SECTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SW-NE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
WINDS REACH 20-25 KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND MID-UPPER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S. MAY STILL
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-100MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT-OVC VFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR BY MID-DAY. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
SPRINKLES ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. FEEL THIS WASN`T EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN
THE TAF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER 00Z. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A
TIME AT PBG AND MSS) FOR THURSDAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 180801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS AWAY FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. FRONT NOW
SOUTH OF OTTAWA OF OTTAWA AND MONTREAL...AND CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH TOWARDS FORECAST AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT LOOK REASONABLE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 721 PM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING WITH
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES
SHOULD BE AROUND 06Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...09Z CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AREAS THAT START
CLEAR THIS EVENING WILL DROP RAPIDLY AT FIRST...BUT OVERALL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WON`T BE MET UNTIL LATE AFTER FRONT
PASSES...GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS
THE FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ALSO DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPR 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. HIGHS
THURSDAY OF MID-UPR 50S NRN AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND LATER
ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT GRAND ISLE
COUNTY (CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS)...WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 31-35F FOR MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (JUST A FROST IN
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE)...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

AFTER A FROSTY START WITH SOME VALLEY FOG...FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60F IN MOST SECTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SW-NE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
WINDS REACH 20-25 KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND MID-UPPER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S. MAY STILL
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-100MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT-OVC VFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR BY MID-DAY. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
SPRINKLES ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. FEEL THIS WASN`T EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN
THE TAF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER 00Z. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A
TIME AT PBG AND MSS) FOR THURSDAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 180533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS AWAY FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. FRONT NOW
SOUTH OF OTTAWA OF OTTAWA AND MONTREAL...AND CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH TOWARDS FORECAST AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT LOOK REASONABLE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 721 PM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING WITH
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES
SHOULD BE AROUND 06Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...09Z CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AREAS THAT START
CLEAR THIS EVENING WILL DROP RAPIDLY AT FIRST...BUT OVERALL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WON`T BE MET UNTIL LATE AFTER FRONT
PASSES...GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS
THE FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ALSO DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPR 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. HIGHS
THURSDAY OF MID-UPR 50S NRN AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND LATER
ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT GRAND ISLE
COUNTY (CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS)...WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 31-35F FOR MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (JUST A FROST IN
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE)...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

AFTER A FROSTY START WITH SOME VALLEY FOG...FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60F IN MOST SECTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SW-NE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
WINDS REACH 20-25 KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND MID-UPPER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S. MAY STILL
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12 UTC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAN PRIOR MODEL CYCLES.
INITIAL PERIOD OF MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND
USHERING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO +15C BECOMES BRIEFLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POPS /LIKELY/ HOWEVER IS LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS 850 MB TEMPS CRASH BACK TO THE +5 TO +7C RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. EARLIER 00Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAS MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS. STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ALOFT. PRIMARILY HAVE STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT-OVC VFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR BY MID-DAY. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
SPRINKLES ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. FEEL THIS WASN`T EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN
THE TAF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER 00Z. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A
TIME AT PBG AND MSS) FOR THURSDAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 180533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS AWAY FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. FRONT NOW
SOUTH OF OTTAWA OF OTTAWA AND MONTREAL...AND CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH TOWARDS FORECAST AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT LOOK REASONABLE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 721 PM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING WITH
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES
SHOULD BE AROUND 06Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...09Z CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AREAS THAT START
CLEAR THIS EVENING WILL DROP RAPIDLY AT FIRST...BUT OVERALL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WON`T BE MET UNTIL LATE AFTER FRONT
PASSES...GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS
THE FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ALSO DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPR 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. HIGHS
THURSDAY OF MID-UPR 50S NRN AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND LATER
ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT GRAND ISLE
COUNTY (CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS)...WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 31-35F FOR MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (JUST A FROST IN
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE)...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

AFTER A FROSTY START WITH SOME VALLEY FOG...FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60F IN MOST SECTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SW-NE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
WINDS REACH 20-25 KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND MID-UPPER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S. MAY STILL
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12 UTC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAN PRIOR MODEL CYCLES.
INITIAL PERIOD OF MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND
USHERING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO +15C BECOMES BRIEFLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POPS /LIKELY/ HOWEVER IS LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS 850 MB TEMPS CRASH BACK TO THE +5 TO +7C RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. EARLIER 00Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAS MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS. STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ALOFT. PRIMARILY HAVE STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT-OVC VFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR BY MID-DAY. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
SPRINKLES ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. FEEL THIS WASN`T EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN
THE TAF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER 00Z. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A
TIME AT PBG AND MSS) FOR THURSDAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 180523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 120 AM...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...BUT
ARE BEGINNING TO REACH OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS WHICH MAY LIMIT
DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AS WE GO
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP WEST
FLOW...RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDS IS
WELL NORTH AND MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH.

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AS WELL AS A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME
L40S POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA...BUT ALSO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN SRN VT AND THE NRN BERKS...CLOSE TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.
THIS PROMPTED THE EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
BTV...BGM...GYX AND BUF FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
THU NIGHT. BACKING UP...THE BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO +4C NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES BY 00Z/FRI...AND +4C TO +8C TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE
AREAS...AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

THU NIGHT...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD FROST FOR HAMILTON...NRN HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN
COUNTIES. TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO 32F ARE EXPECTED IN THE SRN
DACKS. OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...SRN BERKSHIRE AND SE CATSKILLS MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES
FOR TEMPS IN THE 33-36F RANGE WITH AREAS OF FROST. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO PRODUCT. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS LOWS IN
THE U30S TO L40S WILL BE COMMON. THIS WILL BE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON...AS ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER WILL END ON SEPT 23RD.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 1029 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
WX DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SYSTEM.  H850 TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE +2C TO +6C RANGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60-65F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER MANY OF THE HILLS AND MTNS.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FROM THE RETREATING HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MILDER MINS WITH GENERALLY U30S TO U40S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME HINTS OF THE MEAN TROUGHING LIFTING OUT TOWARD
THE 7 DAY TIME FRAME. SOME SLOW MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER IMPULSE.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT.

BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT BUT KEEPING SCATTERED AS THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SO...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS SUNDAY...
PREFRONTAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS MONDAY...JUST POST FRONTAL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEFORE THE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...
WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF AND KPOU...WHERE CLOUDS COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

AFTER 12Z-13Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS WELL
ABOVE 3000 FEET. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
ACKNOWLEDGE IN TAFS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN
WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 35

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...LFM/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 180523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 120 AM...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...BUT
ARE BEGINNING TO REACH OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS WHICH MAY LIMIT
DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AS WE GO
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP WEST
FLOW...RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDS IS
WELL NORTH AND MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH.

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AS WELL AS A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME
L40S POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA...BUT ALSO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN SRN VT AND THE NRN BERKS...CLOSE TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.
THIS PROMPTED THE EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
BTV...BGM...GYX AND BUF FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
THU NIGHT. BACKING UP...THE BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO +4C NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES BY 00Z/FRI...AND +4C TO +8C TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE
AREAS...AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

THU NIGHT...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD FROST FOR HAMILTON...NRN HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN
COUNTIES. TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO 32F ARE EXPECTED IN THE SRN
DACKS. OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...SRN BERKSHIRE AND SE CATSKILLS MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES
FOR TEMPS IN THE 33-36F RANGE WITH AREAS OF FROST. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO PRODUCT. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS LOWS IN
THE U30S TO L40S WILL BE COMMON. THIS WILL BE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON...AS ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER WILL END ON SEPT 23RD.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 1029 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
WX DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SYSTEM.  H850 TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE +2C TO +6C RANGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60-65F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER MANY OF THE HILLS AND MTNS.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FROM THE RETREATING HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MILDER MINS WITH GENERALLY U30S TO U40S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME HINTS OF THE MEAN TROUGHING LIFTING OUT TOWARD
THE 7 DAY TIME FRAME. SOME SLOW MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER IMPULSE.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT.

BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT BUT KEEPING SCATTERED AS THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SO...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS SUNDAY...
PREFRONTAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS MONDAY...JUST POST FRONTAL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEFORE THE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...
WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF AND KPOU...WHERE CLOUDS COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

AFTER 12Z-13Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS WELL
ABOVE 3000 FEET. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
ACKNOWLEDGE IN TAFS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN
WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 35

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...LFM/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KBTV 180511
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS AWAY FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. FRONT NOW
SOUTH OF OTTAWA OF OTTAWA AND MONTREAL...AND CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH TOWARDS FORECAST AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT LOOK REASONABLE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 721 PM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING WITH
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES
SHOULD BE AROUND 06Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...09Z CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AREAS THAT START
CLEAR THIS EVENING WILL DROP RAPIDLY AT FIRST...BUT OVERALL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WON`T BE MET UNTIL LATE AFTER FRONT
PASSES...GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS
THE FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ALSO DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPR 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. HIGHS
THURSDAY OF MID-UPR 50S NRN AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND LATER
ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT GRAND ISLE
COUNTY (CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS)...WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 31-35F FOR MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (JUST A FROST IN
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE)...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

AFTER A FROSTY START WITH SOME VALLEY FOG...FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60F IN MOST SECTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SW-NE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
WINDS REACH 20-25 KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND MID-UPPER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S. MAY STILL
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12 UTC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAN PRIOR MODEL CYCLES.
INITIAL PERIOD OF MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND
USHERING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO +15C BECOMES BRIEFLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POPS /LIKELY/ HOWEVER IS LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS 850 MB TEMPS CRASH BACK TO THE +5 TO +7C RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. EARLIER 00Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAS MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS. STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ALOFT. PRIMARILY HAVE STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT WILL
TRANSITION INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. COVERAGE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH. FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS...WITH MVFR LIKELY
FOR A TIME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION AND CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER OUT.
LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO
NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A TIME AT PBG) FOR THURSDAY FROM
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT, MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...TRENDING MVFR AS SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 180511
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS AWAY FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. FRONT NOW
SOUTH OF OTTAWA OF OTTAWA AND MONTREAL...AND CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH TOWARDS FORECAST AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT LOOK REASONABLE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 721 PM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING WITH
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES
SHOULD BE AROUND 06Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...09Z CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AREAS THAT START
CLEAR THIS EVENING WILL DROP RAPIDLY AT FIRST...BUT OVERALL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WON`T BE MET UNTIL LATE AFTER FRONT
PASSES...GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS
THE FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ALSO DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPR 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. HIGHS
THURSDAY OF MID-UPR 50S NRN AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND LATER
ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT GRAND ISLE
COUNTY (CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS)...WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 31-35F FOR MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (JUST A FROST IN
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE)...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

AFTER A FROSTY START WITH SOME VALLEY FOG...FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60F IN MOST SECTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SW-NE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
WINDS REACH 20-25 KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND MID-UPPER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S. MAY STILL
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12 UTC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAN PRIOR MODEL CYCLES.
INITIAL PERIOD OF MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND
USHERING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO +15C BECOMES BRIEFLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POPS /LIKELY/ HOWEVER IS LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS 850 MB TEMPS CRASH BACK TO THE +5 TO +7C RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. EARLIER 00Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAS MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS. STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ALOFT. PRIMARILY HAVE STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT WILL
TRANSITION INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. COVERAGE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH. FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS...WITH MVFR LIKELY
FOR A TIME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION AND CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER OUT.
LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO
NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A TIME AT PBG) FOR THURSDAY FROM
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT, MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...TRENDING MVFR AS SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KALY 180201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP WEST FLOW...RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDS IS WELL NORTH AND MAKING VERY
SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH. MANY AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DROP A DEGREE OR TWO MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

SO...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AS WELL AS A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME
L40S POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA...BUT ALSO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN SRN VT AND THE NRN BERKS...CLOSE TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.
THIS PROMPTED THE EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
BTV...BGM...GYX AND BUF FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
THU NIGHT. BACKING UP...THE BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO +4C NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES BY 00Z/FRI...AND +4C TO +8C TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE
AREAS...AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

THU NIGHT...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD FROST FOR HAMILTON...NRN HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN
COUNTIES. TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO 32F ARE EXPECTED IN THE SRN
DACKS. OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...SRN BERKSHIRE AND SE CATSKILLS MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES
FOR TEMPS IN THE 33-36F RANGE WITH AREAS OF FROST. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO PRODUCT. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS LOWS IN
THE U30S TO L40S WILL BE COMMON. THIS WILL BE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON...AS ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER WILL END ON SEPT 23RD.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 1029 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
WX DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SYSTEM.  H850 TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE +2C TO +6C RANGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60-65F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER MANY OF THE HILLS AND MTNS.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FROM THE RETREATING HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MILDER MINS WITH GENERALLY U30S TO U40S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME HINTS OF THE MEAN TROUGHING LIFTING OUT TOWARD
THE 7 DAY TIME FRAME. SOME SLOW MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER IMPULSE.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT.

BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT BUT KEEPING SCATTERED AS THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SO...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS SUNDAY...
PREFRONTAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS MONDAY...JUST POST FRONTAL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEFORE THE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...
WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF AND KPOU...WHERE CLOUDS COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

AFTER 12Z-13Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS WELL
ABOVE 3000 FEET. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
ACKNOWLEDGE IN TAFS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN
WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 35

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 180201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP WEST FLOW...RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDS IS WELL NORTH AND MAKING VERY
SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH. MANY AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DROP A DEGREE OR TWO MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

SO...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AS WELL AS A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME
L40S POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA...BUT ALSO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN SRN VT AND THE NRN BERKS...CLOSE TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.
THIS PROMPTED THE EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
BTV...BGM...GYX AND BUF FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
THU NIGHT. BACKING UP...THE BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO +4C NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES BY 00Z/FRI...AND +4C TO +8C TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE
AREAS...AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

THU NIGHT...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD FROST FOR HAMILTON...NRN HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN
COUNTIES. TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO 32F ARE EXPECTED IN THE SRN
DACKS. OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...SRN BERKSHIRE AND SE CATSKILLS MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES
FOR TEMPS IN THE 33-36F RANGE WITH AREAS OF FROST. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO PRODUCT. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS LOWS IN
THE U30S TO L40S WILL BE COMMON. THIS WILL BE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON...AS ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER WILL END ON SEPT 23RD.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 1029 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
WX DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SYSTEM.  H850 TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE +2C TO +6C RANGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60-65F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER MANY OF THE HILLS AND MTNS.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FROM THE RETREATING HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MILDER MINS WITH GENERALLY U30S TO U40S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME HINTS OF THE MEAN TROUGHING LIFTING OUT TOWARD
THE 7 DAY TIME FRAME. SOME SLOW MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER IMPULSE.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT.

BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT BUT KEEPING SCATTERED AS THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SO...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS SUNDAY...
PREFRONTAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS MONDAY...JUST POST FRONTAL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEFORE THE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...
WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF AND KPOU...WHERE CLOUDS COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

AFTER 12Z-13Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS WELL
ABOVE 3000 FEET. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
ACKNOWLEDGE IN TAFS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN
WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 35

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 180200
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1000 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS AWAY FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 957 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. NO
REAL CHANGES NEEDED. FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH REGION AND NOW
LIES FROM NEAR OTTAWA TO MONTREAL. WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
REMAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 721 PM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING WITH
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES
SHOULD BE AROUND 06Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...09Z CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AREAS THAT START
CLEAR THIS EVENING WILL DROP RAPIDLY AT FIRST...BUT OVERALL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WON`T BE MET UNTIL LATE AFTER FRONT
PASSES...GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS
THE FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ALSO DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPR 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. HIGHS
THURSDAY OF MID-UPR 50S NRN AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND LATER
ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT GRAND ISLE
COUNTY (CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS)...WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 31-35F FOR MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (JUST A FROST IN
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE)...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

AFTER A FROSTY START WITH SOME VALLEY FOG...FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60F IN MOST SECTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SW-NE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
WINDS REACH 20-25 KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND MID-UPPER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S. MAY STILL
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12 UTC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAN PRIOR MODEL CYCLES.
INITIAL PERIOD OF MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND
USHERING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO +15C BECOMES BRIEFLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POPS /LIKELY/ HOWEVER IS LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS 850 MB TEMPS CRASH BACK TO THE +5 TO +7C RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. EARLIER 00Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAS MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS. STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ALOFT. PRIMARILY HAVE STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT WILL
TRANSITION INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. COVERAGE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH. FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS...WITH MVFR LIKELY
FOR A TIME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION AND CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER OUT.
LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO
NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A TIME AT PBG) FOR THURSDAY FROM
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT, MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...TRENDING MVFR AS SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 180200
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1000 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS AWAY FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 957 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. NO
REAL CHANGES NEEDED. FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH REGION AND NOW
LIES FROM NEAR OTTAWA TO MONTREAL. WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
REMAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 721 PM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING WITH
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES
SHOULD BE AROUND 06Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...09Z CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AREAS THAT START
CLEAR THIS EVENING WILL DROP RAPIDLY AT FIRST...BUT OVERALL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WON`T BE MET UNTIL LATE AFTER FRONT
PASSES...GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS
THE FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ALSO DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPR 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. HIGHS
THURSDAY OF MID-UPR 50S NRN AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND LATER
ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT GRAND ISLE
COUNTY (CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS)...WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 31-35F FOR MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (JUST A FROST IN
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE)...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

AFTER A FROSTY START WITH SOME VALLEY FOG...FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60F IN MOST SECTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SW-NE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
WINDS REACH 20-25 KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND MID-UPPER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S. MAY STILL
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12 UTC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAN PRIOR MODEL CYCLES.
INITIAL PERIOD OF MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND
USHERING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO +15C BECOMES BRIEFLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POPS /LIKELY/ HOWEVER IS LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS 850 MB TEMPS CRASH BACK TO THE +5 TO +7C RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. EARLIER 00Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAS MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS. STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ALOFT. PRIMARILY HAVE STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT WILL
TRANSITION INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. COVERAGE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH. FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS...WITH MVFR LIKELY
FOR A TIME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION AND CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER OUT.
LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO
NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A TIME AT PBG) FOR THURSDAY FROM
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT, MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...TRENDING MVFR AS SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 172339
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS AWAY FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 721 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO
NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT IN SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THEN PERHAPS A FEW
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES SHOULD BE AROUND 06Z IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY...09Z CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE
REGION BY 12Z. AREAS THAT START CLEAR THIS EVENING WILL DROP
RAPIDLY AT FIRST...BUT OVERALL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WON`T BE MET UNTIL
LATE AFTER FRONT PASSES...GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS
THE FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ALSO DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPR 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. HIGHS
THURSDAY OF MID-UPR 50S NRN AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND LATER
ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT GRAND ISLE
COUNTY (CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS)...WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 31-35F FOR MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (JUST A FROST IN
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE)...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

AFTER A FROSTY START WITH SOME VALLEY FOG...FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60F IN MOST SECTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SW-NE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
WINDS REACH 20-25 KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND MID-UPPER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S. MAY STILL
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12 UTC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAN PRIOR MODEL CYCLES.
INITIAL PERIOD OF MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND
USHERING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO +15C BECOMES BRIEFLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POPS /LIKELY/ HOWEVER IS LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS 850 MB TEMPS CRASH BACK TO THE +5 TO +7C RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. EARLIER 00Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAS MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS. STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ALOFT. PRIMARILY HAVE STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT WILL
TRANSITION INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. COVERAGE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH. FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS...WITH MVFR LIKELY
FOR A TIME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION AND CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER OUT.
LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO
NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A TIME AT PBG) FOR THURSDAY FROM
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT, MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...TRENDING MVFR AS SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 172339
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS AWAY FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 721 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO
NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT IN SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THEN PERHAPS A FEW
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES SHOULD BE AROUND 06Z IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY...09Z CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE
REGION BY 12Z. AREAS THAT START CLEAR THIS EVENING WILL DROP
RAPIDLY AT FIRST...BUT OVERALL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WON`T BE MET UNTIL
LATE AFTER FRONT PASSES...GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS
THE FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ALSO DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPR 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. HIGHS
THURSDAY OF MID-UPR 50S NRN AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND LATER
ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT GRAND ISLE
COUNTY (CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS)...WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 31-35F FOR MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (JUST A FROST IN
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE)...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

AFTER A FROSTY START WITH SOME VALLEY FOG...FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60F IN MOST SECTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SW-NE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
WINDS REACH 20-25 KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND MID-UPPER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S. MAY STILL
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12 UTC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAN PRIOR MODEL CYCLES.
INITIAL PERIOD OF MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND
USHERING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO +15C BECOMES BRIEFLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POPS /LIKELY/ HOWEVER IS LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS 850 MB TEMPS CRASH BACK TO THE +5 TO +7C RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. EARLIER 00Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAS MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS. STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ALOFT. PRIMARILY HAVE STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT WILL
TRANSITION INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. COVERAGE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH. FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS...WITH MVFR LIKELY
FOR A TIME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION AND CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER OUT.
LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO
NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A TIME AT PBG) FOR THURSDAY FROM
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT, MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...TRENDING MVFR AS SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...NASH








000
FXUS61 KALY 172312
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
712 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA AND TRENDS...CURRENT
FORECAST NEED FEW IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
DESCRIBES THE IMPORTANT FEATURES AFFECTING THE WEATHER OVER OUR
REGION TONIGHT AND IS BELOW...

A FEW ISOLD- SCT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER SE ONTARIO AND SRN
QUEBEC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE S TO SE WITH VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS PLACED
IN THE FCST OVER THE NRN MOST ZONES BTWN 06Z-12Z. OTHERWISE...THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH
LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION RADIATING QUICKLY
WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD SLOW WITH THE INCREASE OF THE MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE SRN ZONES TOWARDS SUNRISE. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME L40S POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE SRN
DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA...BUT ALSO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN SRN VT AND THE NRN
BERKS...CLOSE TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.
THIS PROMPTED THE EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
BTV...BGM...GYX AND BUF FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
THU NIGHT. BACKING UP...THE BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO +4C NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES BY 00Z/FRI...AND +4C TO +8C TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE
AREAS...AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

THU NIGHT...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD FROST FOR HAMILTON...NRN HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN
COUNTIES. TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO 32F ARE EXPECTED IN THE SRN
DACKS. OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...SRN BERKSHIRE AND SE CATSKILLS MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES
FOR TEMPS IN THE 33-36F RANGE WITH AREAS OF FROST. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO PRODUCT. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS LOWS IN
THE U30S TO L40S WILL BE COMMON. THIS WILL BE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON...AS ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER WILL END ON SEPT 23RD.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 1029 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
WX DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SYSTEM.  H850 TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE +2C TO +6C RANGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60-65F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER MANY OF THE HILLS AND MTNS.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FROM THE RETREATING HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MILDER MINS WITH GENERALLY U30S TO U40S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME HINTS OF THE MEAN TROUGHING LIFTING OUT TOWARD
THE 7 DAY TIME FRAME. SOME SLOW MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER IMPULSE.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT.

BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT BUT KEEPING SCATTERED AS THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SO...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS SUNDAY...
PREFRONTAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS MONDAY...JUST POST FRONTAL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEFORE THE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...
WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF AND KPOU...WHERE CLOUDS COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

AFTER 12Z-13Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS WELL
ABOVE 3000 FEET. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
ACKNOWLEDGE IN TAFS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN
WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 35

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 172312
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
712 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA AND TRENDS...CURRENT
FORECAST NEED FEW IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
DESCRIBES THE IMPORTANT FEATURES AFFECTING THE WEATHER OVER OUR
REGION TONIGHT AND IS BELOW...

A FEW ISOLD- SCT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER SE ONTARIO AND SRN
QUEBEC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE S TO SE WITH VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS PLACED
IN THE FCST OVER THE NRN MOST ZONES BTWN 06Z-12Z. OTHERWISE...THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH
LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION RADIATING QUICKLY
WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD SLOW WITH THE INCREASE OF THE MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE SRN ZONES TOWARDS SUNRISE. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME L40S POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE SRN
DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA...BUT ALSO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN SRN VT AND THE NRN
BERKS...CLOSE TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.
THIS PROMPTED THE EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
BTV...BGM...GYX AND BUF FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
THU NIGHT. BACKING UP...THE BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO +4C NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES BY 00Z/FRI...AND +4C TO +8C TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE
AREAS...AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

THU NIGHT...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD FROST FOR HAMILTON...NRN HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN
COUNTIES. TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO 32F ARE EXPECTED IN THE SRN
DACKS. OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...SRN BERKSHIRE AND SE CATSKILLS MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES
FOR TEMPS IN THE 33-36F RANGE WITH AREAS OF FROST. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO PRODUCT. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS LOWS IN
THE U30S TO L40S WILL BE COMMON. THIS WILL BE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON...AS ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER WILL END ON SEPT 23RD.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 1029 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
WX DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SYSTEM.  H850 TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE +2C TO +6C RANGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60-65F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER MANY OF THE HILLS AND MTNS.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FROM THE RETREATING HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MILDER MINS WITH GENERALLY U30S TO U40S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME HINTS OF THE MEAN TROUGHING LIFTING OUT TOWARD
THE 7 DAY TIME FRAME. SOME SLOW MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER IMPULSE.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT.

BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT BUT KEEPING SCATTERED AS THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SO...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS SUNDAY...
PREFRONTAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS MONDAY...JUST POST FRONTAL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEFORE THE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...
WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF AND KPOU...WHERE CLOUDS COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

AFTER 12Z-13Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS WELL
ABOVE 3000 FEET. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
ACKNOWLEDGE IN TAFS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN
WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 35

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 172028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
DOWNSTREAM...AND EAST OF THE GULF MAINE. THE FAIR WX CUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS MOVING S/SE FROM JUST NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...
AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. A FEW ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER SE ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY TRACK TO THE S TO SE WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS PLACED IN THE FCST OVER THE NRN
MOST ZONES BTWN 06Z-12Z. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION RADIATING QUICKLY WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS.

THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD SLOW WITH THE INCREASE OF THE MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE SRN ZONES TOWARDS SUNRISE. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME L40S POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE SRN
DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA...BUT ALSO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN SRN VT AND THE NRN
BERKS...CLOSE TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.
THIS PROMPTED THE EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
BTV...BGM...GYX AND BUF FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
THU NIGHT. BACKING UP...THE BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO +4C NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES BY 00Z/FRI...AND +4C TO +8C TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE
AREAS...AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

THU NIGHT...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD FROST FOR HAMILTON...NRN HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN
COUNTIES. TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO 32F ARE EXPECTED IN THE SRN
DACKS. OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...SRN BERKSHIRE AND SE CATSKILLS MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES
FOR TEMPS IN THE 33-36F RANGE WITH AREAS OF FROST. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO PRODUCT. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS LOWS IN
THE U30S TO L40S WILL BE COMMON. THIS WILL BE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON...AS ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER WILL END ON SEPT 23RD.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 1029 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
WX DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SYSTEM.  H850 TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE +2C TO +6C RANGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60-65F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER MANY OF THE HILLS AND MTNS.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FROM THE RETREATING HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MILDER MINS WITH GENERALLY U30S TO U40S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME HINTS OF THE MEAN TROUGHING LIFTING OUT TOWARD
THE 7 DAY TIME FRAME. SOME SLOW MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER IMPULSE.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT.

BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT BUT KEEPING SCATTERED AS THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SO...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS SUNDAY...
PREFRONTAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS MONDAY...JUST POST FRONTAL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN FORECAST FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS LACKING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...AND HAVE NOT
FORECAST ANY PCPN OR CONDITIONS BELOW VFR AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR FOG IS
LESS THAN IT WAS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT KGFL THE MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD GREATLY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION THERE. AT KALB THE CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN AROUND 10Z...BUT SIGNIFICANT FOG AT KALB IS NOT
EXPECTED. KPSF/KPOU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MVFR/IFR FOG
SINCE CLOUDS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 8 KTS OR LESS TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 35

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/ALY STAFF







000
FXUS61 KALY 172028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
DOWNSTREAM...AND EAST OF THE GULF MAINE. THE FAIR WX CUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS MOVING S/SE FROM JUST NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...
AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. A FEW ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER SE ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY TRACK TO THE S TO SE WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS PLACED IN THE FCST OVER THE NRN
MOST ZONES BTWN 06Z-12Z. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION RADIATING QUICKLY WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS.

THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD SLOW WITH THE INCREASE OF THE MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE SRN ZONES TOWARDS SUNRISE. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME L40S POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE SRN
DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA...BUT ALSO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN SRN VT AND THE NRN
BERKS...CLOSE TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.
THIS PROMPTED THE EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
BTV...BGM...GYX AND BUF FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
THU NIGHT. BACKING UP...THE BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO +4C NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES BY 00Z/FRI...AND +4C TO +8C TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE
AREAS...AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

THU NIGHT...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD FROST FOR HAMILTON...NRN HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN
COUNTIES. TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO 32F ARE EXPECTED IN THE SRN
DACKS. OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...SRN BERKSHIRE AND SE CATSKILLS MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES
FOR TEMPS IN THE 33-36F RANGE WITH AREAS OF FROST. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO PRODUCT. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS LOWS IN
THE U30S TO L40S WILL BE COMMON. THIS WILL BE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON...AS ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER WILL END ON SEPT 23RD.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 1029 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
WX DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SYSTEM.  H850 TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE +2C TO +6C RANGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60-65F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER MANY OF THE HILLS AND MTNS.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FROM THE RETREATING HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MILDER MINS WITH GENERALLY U30S TO U40S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME HINTS OF THE MEAN TROUGHING LIFTING OUT TOWARD
THE 7 DAY TIME FRAME. SOME SLOW MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER IMPULSE.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT.

BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT BUT KEEPING SCATTERED AS THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SO...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS SUNDAY...
PREFRONTAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS MONDAY...JUST POST FRONTAL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN FORECAST FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS LACKING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...AND HAVE NOT
FORECAST ANY PCPN OR CONDITIONS BELOW VFR AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR FOG IS
LESS THAN IT WAS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT KGFL THE MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD GREATLY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION THERE. AT KALB THE CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN AROUND 10Z...BUT SIGNIFICANT FOG AT KALB IS NOT
EXPECTED. KPSF/KPOU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MVFR/IFR FOG
SINCE CLOUDS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 8 KTS OR LESS TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 35

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/ALY STAFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 171931
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS AWAY FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW ITSELF
WILL ZIP ENEWD ACROSS SRN QUEBEC TONIGHT...BUT THE TRAILING
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 04-06Z...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY OF 12Z. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...PLENTY OF LOW-MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT (ANAFRONTAL
STRUCTURE)...SO ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
LATER TONIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS - INCLUDING THE BTV-4KM AND 12KM
WRF RUNS - ARE NOT TOO BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...AS CONVERGENCE IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MARGINAL. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST 20-30 POPS - HIGHEST
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN
MTNS - FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY A TRACE UP TO 0.05" ACROSS A FEW
SPOTS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE LOW-
MID 40S GIVEN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THRU LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS
THE FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ALSO DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPR 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. HIGHS
THURSDAY OF MID-UPR 50S NRN AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND LATER
ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT GRAND ISLE
COUNTY (CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS)...WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 31-35F FOR MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (JUST A FROST IN
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE)...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

AFTER A FROSTY START WITH SOME VALLEY FOG...FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60F IN MOST SECTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SW-NE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
WINDS REACH 20-25 KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND MID-UPPER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S. MAY STILL
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12 UTC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAN PRIOR MODEL CYCLES.
INITIAL PERIOD OF MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND
USHERING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO +15C BECOMES BRIEFLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POPS /LIKELY/ HOWEVER IS LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS 850 MB TEMPS CRASH BACK TO THE +5 TO +7C RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. EARLIER 00Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAS MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS. STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ALOFT. PRIMARILY HAVE STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR AREA WIDE WITH SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS
BETWEEN 4000-7000FT. WHAT YOU SEE IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT YOU GET FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL START
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WON`T BE MUCH, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION. DID
PUT IN A "VCSH" MENTION FOR SLK AND MSS SINCE IF THERE ARE ANY
SHOWERS THE CHANCES THERE ARE A BIT HIGHER (~30%). WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR AT SLK AND MSS. MVFR CEILINGS COULD
HAPPEN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT BTV THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL, BUT AT
THIS POINT LEFT THAT OUT. WITH THE CLOUDS, THERE SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH FOG. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR AT MPV SINCE THEY`LL HAVE LONGER
TIME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT RELATED CLOUDS COME IN. IF WE HAD TAFS
DOWN IN SPRINGFIELD VT (VSF), I`D BET THAT THEY STILL END UP AT
LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LONGER PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. ANYWAY,
CLOUDS BREAK UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO 18Z THURSDAY, LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT, MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...TRENDING MVFR AS SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 171931
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS AWAY FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW ITSELF
WILL ZIP ENEWD ACROSS SRN QUEBEC TONIGHT...BUT THE TRAILING
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 04-06Z...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY OF 12Z. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...PLENTY OF LOW-MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT (ANAFRONTAL
STRUCTURE)...SO ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
LATER TONIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS - INCLUDING THE BTV-4KM AND 12KM
WRF RUNS - ARE NOT TOO BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...AS CONVERGENCE IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MARGINAL. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST 20-30 POPS - HIGHEST
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN
MTNS - FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY A TRACE UP TO 0.05" ACROSS A FEW
SPOTS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE LOW-
MID 40S GIVEN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THRU LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS
THE FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ALSO DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPR 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. HIGHS
THURSDAY OF MID-UPR 50S NRN AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND LATER
ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT GRAND ISLE
COUNTY (CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS)...WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 31-35F FOR MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (JUST A FROST IN
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE)...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

AFTER A FROSTY START WITH SOME VALLEY FOG...FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60F IN MOST SECTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SW-NE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
WINDS REACH 20-25 KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND MID-UPPER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S. MAY STILL
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12 UTC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAN PRIOR MODEL CYCLES.
INITIAL PERIOD OF MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND
USHERING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO +15C BECOMES BRIEFLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POPS /LIKELY/ HOWEVER IS LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS 850 MB TEMPS CRASH BACK TO THE +5 TO +7C RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. EARLIER 00Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAS MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS. STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ALOFT. PRIMARILY HAVE STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR AREA WIDE WITH SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS
BETWEEN 4000-7000FT. WHAT YOU SEE IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT YOU GET FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL START
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WON`T BE MUCH, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION. DID
PUT IN A "VCSH" MENTION FOR SLK AND MSS SINCE IF THERE ARE ANY
SHOWERS THE CHANCES THERE ARE A BIT HIGHER (~30%). WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR AT SLK AND MSS. MVFR CEILINGS COULD
HAPPEN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT BTV THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL, BUT AT
THIS POINT LEFT THAT OUT. WITH THE CLOUDS, THERE SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH FOG. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR AT MPV SINCE THEY`LL HAVE LONGER
TIME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT RELATED CLOUDS COME IN. IF WE HAD TAFS
DOWN IN SPRINGFIELD VT (VSF), I`D BET THAT THEY STILL END UP AT
LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LONGER PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. ANYWAY,
CLOUDS BREAK UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO 18Z THURSDAY, LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT, MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...TRENDING MVFR AS SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 171931
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS AWAY FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW ITSELF
WILL ZIP ENEWD ACROSS SRN QUEBEC TONIGHT...BUT THE TRAILING
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 04-06Z...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY OF 12Z. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...PLENTY OF LOW-MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT (ANAFRONTAL
STRUCTURE)...SO ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
LATER TONIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS - INCLUDING THE BTV-4KM AND 12KM
WRF RUNS - ARE NOT TOO BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...AS CONVERGENCE IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MARGINAL. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST 20-30 POPS - HIGHEST
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN
MTNS - FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY A TRACE UP TO 0.05" ACROSS A FEW
SPOTS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE LOW-
MID 40S GIVEN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THRU LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS
THE FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ALSO DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPR 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. HIGHS
THURSDAY OF MID-UPR 50S NRN AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND LATER
ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT GRAND ISLE
COUNTY (CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS)...WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 31-35F FOR MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (JUST A FROST IN
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE)...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

AFTER A FROSTY START WITH SOME VALLEY FOG...FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60F IN MOST SECTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SW-NE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
WINDS REACH 20-25 KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND MID-UPPER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S. MAY STILL
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12 UTC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAN PRIOR MODEL CYCLES.
INITIAL PERIOD OF MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND
USHERING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO +15C BECOMES BRIEFLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POPS /LIKELY/ HOWEVER IS LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS 850 MB TEMPS CRASH BACK TO THE +5 TO +7C RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. EARLIER 00Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAS MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS. STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ALOFT. PRIMARILY HAVE STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR AREA WIDE WITH SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS
BETWEEN 4000-7000FT. WHAT YOU SEE IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT YOU GET FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL START
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WON`T BE MUCH, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION. DID
PUT IN A "VCSH" MENTION FOR SLK AND MSS SINCE IF THERE ARE ANY
SHOWERS THE CHANCES THERE ARE A BIT HIGHER (~30%). WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR AT SLK AND MSS. MVFR CEILINGS COULD
HAPPEN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT BTV THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL, BUT AT
THIS POINT LEFT THAT OUT. WITH THE CLOUDS, THERE SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH FOG. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR AT MPV SINCE THEY`LL HAVE LONGER
TIME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT RELATED CLOUDS COME IN. IF WE HAD TAFS
DOWN IN SPRINGFIELD VT (VSF), I`D BET THAT THEY STILL END UP AT
LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LONGER PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. ANYWAY,
CLOUDS BREAK UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO 18Z THURSDAY, LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT, MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...TRENDING MVFR AS SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 171931
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS AWAY FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW ITSELF
WILL ZIP ENEWD ACROSS SRN QUEBEC TONIGHT...BUT THE TRAILING
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 04-06Z...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY OF 12Z. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...PLENTY OF LOW-MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT (ANAFRONTAL
STRUCTURE)...SO ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
LATER TONIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS - INCLUDING THE BTV-4KM AND 12KM
WRF RUNS - ARE NOT TOO BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...AS CONVERGENCE IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MARGINAL. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST 20-30 POPS - HIGHEST
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN
MTNS - FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY A TRACE UP TO 0.05" ACROSS A FEW
SPOTS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE LOW-
MID 40S GIVEN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THRU LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS
THE FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ALSO DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPR 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. HIGHS
THURSDAY OF MID-UPR 50S NRN AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND LATER
ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT GRAND ISLE
COUNTY (CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS)...WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 31-35F FOR MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (JUST A FROST IN
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE)...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

AFTER A FROSTY START WITH SOME VALLEY FOG...FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60F IN MOST SECTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SW-NE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
WINDS REACH 20-25 KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND MID-UPPER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S. MAY STILL
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12 UTC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAN PRIOR MODEL CYCLES.
INITIAL PERIOD OF MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND
USHERING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO +15C BECOMES BRIEFLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POPS /LIKELY/ HOWEVER IS LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS 850 MB TEMPS CRASH BACK TO THE +5 TO +7C RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. EARLIER 00Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAS MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS. STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ALOFT. PRIMARILY HAVE STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR AREA WIDE WITH SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS
BETWEEN 4000-7000FT. WHAT YOU SEE IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT YOU GET FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL START
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WON`T BE MUCH, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION. DID
PUT IN A "VCSH" MENTION FOR SLK AND MSS SINCE IF THERE ARE ANY
SHOWERS THE CHANCES THERE ARE A BIT HIGHER (~30%). WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR AT SLK AND MSS. MVFR CEILINGS COULD
HAPPEN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT BTV THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL, BUT AT
THIS POINT LEFT THAT OUT. WITH THE CLOUDS, THERE SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH FOG. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR AT MPV SINCE THEY`LL HAVE LONGER
TIME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT RELATED CLOUDS COME IN. IF WE HAD TAFS
DOWN IN SPRINGFIELD VT (VSF), I`D BET THAT THEY STILL END UP AT
LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LONGER PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. ANYWAY,
CLOUDS BREAK UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO 18Z THURSDAY, LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT, MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...TRENDING MVFR AS SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 171913
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
313 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A RETURN TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...WITH ANY LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TODAY REMAINING NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +5 TO
+6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH INSOLATIONAL HEATING ...WE
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL LOW PASS TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING...AND THEN SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...TEMPS NOT ALL THAT COLD WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN
0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS...EXCEPT UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS
MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH
DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. WILL
LIKELY NEED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR MOST SECTIONS...EXCEPT FROST
ADVISORY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF
THE WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 32-36F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. HAVE MAINTAINED WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL. THE FREEZE WILL BE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL
ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE RADIATION FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER 04Z...WHICH MAY LINGER
UNTIL AROUND 14Z FRIDAY.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
NIGHTFALL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO BETWEEN +4 AND
+6 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12 UTC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAN PRIOR MODEL CYCLES.
INITIAL PERIOD OF MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND
USHERING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO +15C BECOMES BRIEFLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POPS /LIKELY/ HOWEVER IS LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS 850 MB TEMPS CRASH BACK TO THE +5 TO +7C RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. EARLIER 00Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAS MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS. STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ALOFT. PRIMARILY HAVE STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR AREA WIDE WITH SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS
BETWEEN 4000-7000FT. WHAT YOU SEE IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT YOU GET FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL START
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WON`T BE MUCH, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION. DID
PUT IN A "VCSH" MENTION FOR SLK AND MSS SINCE IF THERE ARE ANY
SHOWERS THE CHANCES THERE ARE A BIT HIGHER (~30%). WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR AT SLK AND MSS. MVFR CEILINGS COULD
HAPPEN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT BTV THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL, BUT AT
THIS POINT LEFT THAT OUT. WITH THE CLOUDS, THERE SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH FOG. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR AT MPV SINCE THEY`LL HAVE LONGER
TIME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT RELATED CLOUDS COME IN. IF WE HAD TAFS
DOWN IN SPRINGFIELD VT (VSF), I`D BET THAT THEY STILL END UP AT
LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LONGER PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. ANYWAY,
CLOUDS BREAK UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO 18Z THURSDAY, LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT, MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...TRENDING MVFR AS SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH









000
FXUS61 KBTV 171913
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
313 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A RETURN TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...WITH ANY LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TODAY REMAINING NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +5 TO
+6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH INSOLATIONAL HEATING ...WE
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL LOW PASS TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING...AND THEN SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...TEMPS NOT ALL THAT COLD WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN
0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS...EXCEPT UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS
MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH
DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. WILL
LIKELY NEED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR MOST SECTIONS...EXCEPT FROST
ADVISORY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF
THE WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 32-36F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. HAVE MAINTAINED WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL. THE FREEZE WILL BE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL
ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE RADIATION FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER 04Z...WHICH MAY LINGER
UNTIL AROUND 14Z FRIDAY.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
NIGHTFALL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO BETWEEN +4 AND
+6 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12 UTC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAN PRIOR MODEL CYCLES.
INITIAL PERIOD OF MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND
USHERING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO +15C BECOMES BRIEFLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POPS /LIKELY/ HOWEVER IS LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS 850 MB TEMPS CRASH BACK TO THE +5 TO +7C RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. EARLIER 00Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAS MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS. STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ALOFT. PRIMARILY HAVE STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR AREA WIDE WITH SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS
BETWEEN 4000-7000FT. WHAT YOU SEE IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT YOU GET FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL START
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WON`T BE MUCH, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION. DID
PUT IN A "VCSH" MENTION FOR SLK AND MSS SINCE IF THERE ARE ANY
SHOWERS THE CHANCES THERE ARE A BIT HIGHER (~30%). WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR AT SLK AND MSS. MVFR CEILINGS COULD
HAPPEN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT BTV THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL, BUT AT
THIS POINT LEFT THAT OUT. WITH THE CLOUDS, THERE SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH FOG. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR AT MPV SINCE THEY`LL HAVE LONGER
TIME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT RELATED CLOUDS COME IN. IF WE HAD TAFS
DOWN IN SPRINGFIELD VT (VSF), I`D BET THAT THEY STILL END UP AT
LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LONGER PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. ANYWAY,
CLOUDS BREAK UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO 18Z THURSDAY, LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT, MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...TRENDING MVFR AS SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH










000
FXUS61 KBTV 171753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
153 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1252 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...WITH ANY LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TODAY REMAINING NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +5 TO
+6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH INSOLATIONAL HEATING ...WE
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL LOW PASS TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING...AND THEN SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...TEMPS NOT ALL THAT COLD WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN
0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS...EXCEPT UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS
MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH
DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. WILL
LIKELY NEED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR MOST SECTIONS...EXCEPT FROST
ADVISORY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF
THE WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 32-36F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. HAVE MAINTAINED WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL. THE FREEZE WILL BE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL
ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE RADIATION FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER 04Z...WHICH MAY LINGER
UNTIL AROUND 14Z FRIDAY.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
NIGHTFALL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO BETWEEN +4 AND
+6 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON
TRACK WITH THE HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUING TO BE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING EAST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY GOING INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE OVER VT/NH/ME
WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE INTL BORDER IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A WEAK
SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC
SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME FROPA TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO START
MENTIONING LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW
YORK...AND ACROSS VERMONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS DIVERGE GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY COMPARED THE ECMWF IN REGARDS
TO THE HANDLING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. GFS DEVELOPS A
CLOSED CIRCULATION AT 500MB MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE BEST
AVAILABLE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE BTV CWA...WHILE
THE ECMWF REMAINS OPEN WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A SLOWER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. TO SUM IT UP...CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION BUT WITH BETTER CONSISTENCY HAVE
LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE GFS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME
LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPS BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL...SHIFT TO NEAR OR ABOVE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK BELOW TO END THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR AREA WIDE WITH SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS
BETWEEN 4000-7000FT. WHAT YOU SEE IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT YOU GET FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL START
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WON`T BE MUCH, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION. DID
PUT IN A "VCSH" MENTION FOR SLK AND MSS SINCE IF THERE ARE ANY
SHOWERS THE CHANCES THERE ARE A BIT HIGHER (~30%). WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR AT SLK AND MSS. MVFR CEILINGS COULD
HAPPEN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT BTV THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL, BUT AT
THIS POINT LEFT THAT OUT. WITH THE CLOUDS, THERE SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH FOG. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR AT MPV SINCE THEY`LL HAVE LONGER
TIME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT RELATED CLOUDS COME IN. IF WE HAD TAFS
DOWN IN SPRINGFIELD VT (VSF), I`D BET THAT THEY STILL END UP AT
LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LONGER PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. ANYWAY,
CLOUDS BREAK UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO 18Z THURSDAY, LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT, MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...TRENDING MVFR AS SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 171753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
153 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1252 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...WITH ANY LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TODAY REMAINING NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +5 TO
+6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH INSOLATIONAL HEATING ...WE
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL LOW PASS TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING...AND THEN SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...TEMPS NOT ALL THAT COLD WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN
0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS...EXCEPT UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS
MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH
DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. WILL
LIKELY NEED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR MOST SECTIONS...EXCEPT FROST
ADVISORY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF
THE WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 32-36F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. HAVE MAINTAINED WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL. THE FREEZE WILL BE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL
ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE RADIATION FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER 04Z...WHICH MAY LINGER
UNTIL AROUND 14Z FRIDAY.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
NIGHTFALL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO BETWEEN +4 AND
+6 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON
TRACK WITH THE HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUING TO BE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING EAST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY GOING INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE OVER VT/NH/ME
WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE INTL BORDER IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A WEAK
SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC
SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME FROPA TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO START
MENTIONING LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW
YORK...AND ACROSS VERMONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS DIVERGE GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY COMPARED THE ECMWF IN REGARDS
TO THE HANDLING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. GFS DEVELOPS A
CLOSED CIRCULATION AT 500MB MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE BEST
AVAILABLE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE BTV CWA...WHILE
THE ECMWF REMAINS OPEN WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A SLOWER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. TO SUM IT UP...CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION BUT WITH BETTER CONSISTENCY HAVE
LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE GFS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME
LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPS BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL...SHIFT TO NEAR OR ABOVE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK BELOW TO END THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR AREA WIDE WITH SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS
BETWEEN 4000-7000FT. WHAT YOU SEE IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT YOU GET FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL START
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WON`T BE MUCH, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION. DID
PUT IN A "VCSH" MENTION FOR SLK AND MSS SINCE IF THERE ARE ANY
SHOWERS THE CHANCES THERE ARE A BIT HIGHER (~30%). WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR AT SLK AND MSS. MVFR CEILINGS COULD
HAPPEN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT BTV THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL, BUT AT
THIS POINT LEFT THAT OUT. WITH THE CLOUDS, THERE SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH FOG. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR AT MPV SINCE THEY`LL HAVE LONGER
TIME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT RELATED CLOUDS COME IN. IF WE HAD TAFS
DOWN IN SPRINGFIELD VT (VSF), I`D BET THAT THEY STILL END UP AT
LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LONGER PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. ANYWAY,
CLOUDS BREAK UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO 18Z THURSDAY, LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT, MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...TRENDING MVFR AS SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KALY 171746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT SO MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THEN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER
EARLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM EDT/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
DOWNSTREAM...AND EAST OF THE GULF MAINE. SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS SETTLING S/SE FROM JUST NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY... AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME CIRRUS MAY DRIFT IN
LATE THIS PM.

TEMPS LOOK MOSTLY ON TRACK...BUT STILL A TAD BELOW NORMAL WITH
M60S TO NEAR 70F IN MOST OF THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M50S TO L60S
OVER THE MTNS.

WE MAY NEED A FREEZE WATCH FOR FRI MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN
AND WRN DACKS...WHICH WE WILL ADDRESS WITH THE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER ITS FORWARD PROGRESS
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE MAIN UPPER
SUPPORT...SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY JUST EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
TO THE REGION AND TOO FAR REMOVED FOR DIRECT IMPACTS. SO WE WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE DACKS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE 40S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY
CLOUD COVER. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION AS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL OMEGA SUPPORTS LIFT AT
OR BELOW H700 WHERE RH VALUES ARE OVER 90 PERCENT. THIS LIFT
RAPIDLY DISSIPATES SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR NOW FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS MEAN RH VALUES DROP BACK OR BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL BACK TO AROUND 0C ACROSS THE DACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION
WITH AROUND +5C FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS
MAINLY THE TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
THE DACKS AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AS SURFACE HIGH /1028MB/ SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE IS FORECAST
WITH A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THE LONG TERM IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY MON-TUE...AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND ANY
POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. 00Z/17 MODELS HANDLE
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES QUITE DIFFERENTLY...WITH
THE 00Z/17 GFS AND GEFS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH A MORE
POSITIVE TILT...WITH THE SFC FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUN NT-MON...WITH
ANY POSSIBLE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE THE 00Z/17 ECMWF INDICATES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT TO THE
EVOLVING TROUGH...WITH SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. SO...THE GFS/GEFS WOULD FAVOR A
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT SUN NT/EARLY MON...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MON-MON NT. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS/GEFS MODE...AS THIS MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CHANGED RATHER
DRASTICALLY FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

FRI NT-SAT NT...IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE
WAY OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESP SAT-SAT NT. SO WILL TREND SKY
CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
SAT-SAT NT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND SOME OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY
SQUEEZE OUT THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. IT ALSO COULD
BECOME QUITE BREEZY SAT AFTERNOON...AS A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR FRI NT
WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...THEN WARMING TO
THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SAT NT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF
ALBANY.

SUN-MON...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN
NT...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER ON MON FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. SHOULD THE 00Z/17 ECMWF PROVE CORRECT...THEN MON COULD BE
MUCH WETTER...WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN POSSIBLE. SUN MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM. ON MON...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.
HOWEVER...AGAIN...IF A STEADIER RAIN WERE TO OCCUR...MAX TEMPS COULD
BE MUCH COOLER.

MON NT-TUE...MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N AND W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES
THROUGH...EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.
MON NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...TO THE 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN FORECAST FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS LACKING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...AND HAVE NOT
FORECAST ANY PCPN OR CONDITIONS BELOW VFR AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR FOG IS
LESS THAN IT WAS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT KGFL THE MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD GREATLY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION THERE. AT KALB THE CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN AROUND 10Z...BUT SIGNIFICANT FOG AT KALB IS NOT
EXPECTED. KPSF/KPOU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MVFR/IFR FOG
SINCE CLOUDS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 8 KTS OR LESS TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 75 AND
95 PERCENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMUM IMPACTS
TO THE AREA RIVER AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 34

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
CLIMATE...IAA/STAFF











000
FXUS61 KALY 171746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT SO MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THEN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER
EARLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM EDT/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
DOWNSTREAM...AND EAST OF THE GULF MAINE. SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS SETTLING S/SE FROM JUST NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY... AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME CIRRUS MAY DRIFT IN
LATE THIS PM.

TEMPS LOOK MOSTLY ON TRACK...BUT STILL A TAD BELOW NORMAL WITH
M60S TO NEAR 70F IN MOST OF THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M50S TO L60S
OVER THE MTNS.

WE MAY NEED A FREEZE WATCH FOR FRI MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN
AND WRN DACKS...WHICH WE WILL ADDRESS WITH THE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER ITS FORWARD PROGRESS
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE MAIN UPPER
SUPPORT...SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY JUST EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
TO THE REGION AND TOO FAR REMOVED FOR DIRECT IMPACTS. SO WE WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE DACKS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE 40S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY
CLOUD COVER. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION AS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL OMEGA SUPPORTS LIFT AT
OR BELOW H700 WHERE RH VALUES ARE OVER 90 PERCENT. THIS LIFT
RAPIDLY DISSIPATES SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR NOW FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS MEAN RH VALUES DROP BACK OR BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL BACK TO AROUND 0C ACROSS THE DACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION
WITH AROUND +5C FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS
MAINLY THE TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
THE DACKS AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AS SURFACE HIGH /1028MB/ SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE IS FORECAST
WITH A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THE LONG TERM IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY MON-TUE...AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND ANY
POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. 00Z/17 MODELS HANDLE
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES QUITE DIFFERENTLY...WITH
THE 00Z/17 GFS AND GEFS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH A MORE
POSITIVE TILT...WITH THE SFC FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUN NT-MON...WITH
ANY POSSIBLE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE THE 00Z/17 ECMWF INDICATES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT TO THE
EVOLVING TROUGH...WITH SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. SO...THE GFS/GEFS WOULD FAVOR A
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT SUN NT/EARLY MON...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MON-MON NT. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS/GEFS MODE...AS THIS MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CHANGED RATHER
DRASTICALLY FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

FRI NT-SAT NT...IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE
WAY OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESP SAT-SAT NT. SO WILL TREND SKY
CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
SAT-SAT NT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND SOME OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY
SQUEEZE OUT THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. IT ALSO COULD
BECOME QUITE BREEZY SAT AFTERNOON...AS A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR FRI NT
WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...THEN WARMING TO
THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SAT NT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF
ALBANY.

SUN-MON...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN
NT...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER ON MON FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. SHOULD THE 00Z/17 ECMWF PROVE CORRECT...THEN MON COULD BE
MUCH WETTER...WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN POSSIBLE. SUN MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM. ON MON...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.
HOWEVER...AGAIN...IF A STEADIER RAIN WERE TO OCCUR...MAX TEMPS COULD
BE MUCH COOLER.

MON NT-TUE...MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N AND W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES
THROUGH...EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.
MON NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...TO THE 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN FORECAST FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS LACKING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...AND HAVE NOT
FORECAST ANY PCPN OR CONDITIONS BELOW VFR AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR FOG IS
LESS THAN IT WAS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT KGFL THE MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD GREATLY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION THERE. AT KALB THE CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN AROUND 10Z...BUT SIGNIFICANT FOG AT KALB IS NOT
EXPECTED. KPSF/KPOU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MVFR/IFR FOG
SINCE CLOUDS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 8 KTS OR LESS TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 75 AND
95 PERCENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMUM IMPACTS
TO THE AREA RIVER AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 34

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
CLIMATE...IAA/STAFF











000
FXUS61 KALY 171746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT SO MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THEN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER
EARLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM EDT/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
DOWNSTREAM...AND EAST OF THE GULF MAINE. SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS SETTLING S/SE FROM JUST NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY... AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME CIRRUS MAY DRIFT IN
LATE THIS PM.

TEMPS LOOK MOSTLY ON TRACK...BUT STILL A TAD BELOW NORMAL WITH
M60S TO NEAR 70F IN MOST OF THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M50S TO L60S
OVER THE MTNS.

WE MAY NEED A FREEZE WATCH FOR FRI MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN
AND WRN DACKS...WHICH WE WILL ADDRESS WITH THE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER ITS FORWARD PROGRESS
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE MAIN UPPER
SUPPORT...SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY JUST EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
TO THE REGION AND TOO FAR REMOVED FOR DIRECT IMPACTS. SO WE WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE DACKS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE 40S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY
CLOUD COVER. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION AS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL OMEGA SUPPORTS LIFT AT
OR BELOW H700 WHERE RH VALUES ARE OVER 90 PERCENT. THIS LIFT
RAPIDLY DISSIPATES SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR NOW FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS MEAN RH VALUES DROP BACK OR BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL BACK TO AROUND 0C ACROSS THE DACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION
WITH AROUND +5C FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS
MAINLY THE TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
THE DACKS AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AS SURFACE HIGH /1028MB/ SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE IS FORECAST
WITH A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THE LONG TERM IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY MON-TUE...AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND ANY
POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. 00Z/17 MODELS HANDLE
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES QUITE DIFFERENTLY...WITH
THE 00Z/17 GFS AND GEFS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH A MORE
POSITIVE TILT...WITH THE SFC FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUN NT-MON...WITH
ANY POSSIBLE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE THE 00Z/17 ECMWF INDICATES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT TO THE
EVOLVING TROUGH...WITH SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. SO...THE GFS/GEFS WOULD FAVOR A
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT SUN NT/EARLY MON...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MON-MON NT. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS/GEFS MODE...AS THIS MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CHANGED RATHER
DRASTICALLY FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

FRI NT-SAT NT...IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE
WAY OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESP SAT-SAT NT. SO WILL TREND SKY
CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
SAT-SAT NT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND SOME OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY
SQUEEZE OUT THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. IT ALSO COULD
BECOME QUITE BREEZY SAT AFTERNOON...AS A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR FRI NT
WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...THEN WARMING TO
THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SAT NT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF
ALBANY.

SUN-MON...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN
NT...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER ON MON FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. SHOULD THE 00Z/17 ECMWF PROVE CORRECT...THEN MON COULD BE
MUCH WETTER...WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN POSSIBLE. SUN MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM. ON MON...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.
HOWEVER...AGAIN...IF A STEADIER RAIN WERE TO OCCUR...MAX TEMPS COULD
BE MUCH COOLER.

MON NT-TUE...MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N AND W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES
THROUGH...EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.
MON NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...TO THE 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN FORECAST FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS LACKING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...AND HAVE NOT
FORECAST ANY PCPN OR CONDITIONS BELOW VFR AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR FOG IS
LESS THAN IT WAS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT KGFL THE MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD GREATLY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION THERE. AT KALB THE CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN AROUND 10Z...BUT SIGNIFICANT FOG AT KALB IS NOT
EXPECTED. KPSF/KPOU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MVFR/IFR FOG
SINCE CLOUDS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 8 KTS OR LESS TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 75 AND
95 PERCENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMUM IMPACTS
TO THE AREA RIVER AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 34

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
CLIMATE...IAA/STAFF











000
FXUS61 KALY 171746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT SO MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THEN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER
EARLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM EDT/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
DOWNSTREAM...AND EAST OF THE GULF MAINE. SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS SETTLING S/SE FROM JUST NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY... AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME CIRRUS MAY DRIFT IN
LATE THIS PM.

TEMPS LOOK MOSTLY ON TRACK...BUT STILL A TAD BELOW NORMAL WITH
M60S TO NEAR 70F IN MOST OF THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M50S TO L60S
OVER THE MTNS.

WE MAY NEED A FREEZE WATCH FOR FRI MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN
AND WRN DACKS...WHICH WE WILL ADDRESS WITH THE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER ITS FORWARD PROGRESS
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE MAIN UPPER
SUPPORT...SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY JUST EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
TO THE REGION AND TOO FAR REMOVED FOR DIRECT IMPACTS. SO WE WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE DACKS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE 40S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY
CLOUD COVER. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION AS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL OMEGA SUPPORTS LIFT AT
OR BELOW H700 WHERE RH VALUES ARE OVER 90 PERCENT. THIS LIFT
RAPIDLY DISSIPATES SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR NOW FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS MEAN RH VALUES DROP BACK OR BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL BACK TO AROUND 0C ACROSS THE DACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION
WITH AROUND +5C FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS
MAINLY THE TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
THE DACKS AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AS SURFACE HIGH /1028MB/ SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE IS FORECAST
WITH A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THE LONG TERM IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY MON-TUE...AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND ANY
POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. 00Z/17 MODELS HANDLE
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES QUITE DIFFERENTLY...WITH
THE 00Z/17 GFS AND GEFS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH A MORE
POSITIVE TILT...WITH THE SFC FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUN NT-MON...WITH
ANY POSSIBLE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE THE 00Z/17 ECMWF INDICATES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT TO THE
EVOLVING TROUGH...WITH SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. SO...THE GFS/GEFS WOULD FAVOR A
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT SUN NT/EARLY MON...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MON-MON NT. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS/GEFS MODE...AS THIS MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CHANGED RATHER
DRASTICALLY FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

FRI NT-SAT NT...IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE
WAY OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESP SAT-SAT NT. SO WILL TREND SKY
CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
SAT-SAT NT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND SOME OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY
SQUEEZE OUT THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. IT ALSO COULD
BECOME QUITE BREEZY SAT AFTERNOON...AS A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR FRI NT
WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...THEN WARMING TO
THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SAT NT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF
ALBANY.

SUN-MON...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN
NT...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER ON MON FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. SHOULD THE 00Z/17 ECMWF PROVE CORRECT...THEN MON COULD BE
MUCH WETTER...WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN POSSIBLE. SUN MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM. ON MON...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.
HOWEVER...AGAIN...IF A STEADIER RAIN WERE TO OCCUR...MAX TEMPS COULD
BE MUCH COOLER.

MON NT-TUE...MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N AND W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES
THROUGH...EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.
MON NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...TO THE 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN FORECAST FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS LACKING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...AND HAVE NOT
FORECAST ANY PCPN OR CONDITIONS BELOW VFR AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR FOG IS
LESS THAN IT WAS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT KGFL THE MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD GREATLY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION THERE. AT KALB THE CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN AROUND 10Z...BUT SIGNIFICANT FOG AT KALB IS NOT
EXPECTED. KPSF/KPOU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MVFR/IFR FOG
SINCE CLOUDS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 8 KTS OR LESS TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 75 AND
95 PERCENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMUM IMPACTS
TO THE AREA RIVER AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 34

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
CLIMATE...IAA/STAFF











000
FXUS61 KALY 171726
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT SO MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THEN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER
EARLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM EDT/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
DOWNSTREAM...AND EAST OF THE GULF MAINE. SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS SETTLING S/SE FROM JUST NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY... AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME CIRRUS MAY DRIFT IN
LATE THIS PM.

TEMPS LOOK MOSTLY ON TRACK...BUT STILL A TAD BELOW NORMAL WITH
M60S TO NEAR 70F IN MOST OF THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M50S TO L60S
OVER THE MTNS.

WE MAY NEED A FREEZE WATCH FOR FRI MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN
AND WRN DACKS...WHICH WE WILL ADDRESS WITH THE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER ITS FORWARD PROGRESS
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE MAIN UPPER
SUPPORT...SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY JUST EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
TO THE REGION AND TOO FAR REMOVED FOR DIRECT IMPACTS. SO WE WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE DACKS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE 40S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY
CLOUD COVER. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION AS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL OMEGA SUPPORTS LIFT AT
OR BELOW H700 WHERE RH VALUES ARE OVER 90 PERCENT. THIS LIFT
RAPIDLY DISSIPATES SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR NOW FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS MEAN RH VALUES DROP BACK OR BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL BACK TO AROUND 0C ACROSS THE DACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION
WITH AROUND +5C FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS
MAINLY THE TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
THE DACKS AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AS SURFACE HIGH /1028MB/ SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE IS FORECAST
WITH A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THE LONG TERM IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY MON-TUE...AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND ANY
POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. 00Z/17 MODELS HANDLE
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES QUITE DIFFERENTLY...WITH
THE 00Z/17 GFS AND GEFS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH A MORE
POSITIVE TILT...WITH THE SFC FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUN NT-MON...WITH
ANY POSSIBLE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE THE 00Z/17 ECMWF INDICATES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT TO THE
EVOLVING TROUGH...WITH SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. SO...THE GFS/GEFS WOULD FAVOR A
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT SUN NT/EARLY MON...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MON-MON NT. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS/GEFS MODE...AS THIS MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CHANGED RATHER
DRASTICALLY FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

FRI NT-SAT NT...IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE
WAY OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESP SAT-SAT NT. SO WILL TREND SKY
CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
SAT-SAT NT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND SOME OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY
SQUEEZE OUT THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. IT ALSO COULD
BECOME QUITE BREEZY SAT AFTERNOON...AS A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR FRI NT
WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...THEN WARMING TO
THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SAT NT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF
ALBANY.

SUN-MON...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN
NT...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER ON MON FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. SHOULD THE 00Z/17 ECMWF PROVE CORRECT...THEN MON COULD BE
MUCH WETTER...WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN POSSIBLE. SUN MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM. ON MON...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.
HOWEVER...AGAIN...IF A STEADIER RAIN WERE TO OCCUR...MAX TEMPS COULD
BE MUCH COOLER.

MON NT-TUE...MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N AND W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES
THROUGH...EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR...MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.
MON NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...TO THE 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/WED...GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY INTO WED EVENING. SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 05Z/THU...ESP AT KGFL AND
KPSF...WHERE SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS COULD INTERMITTENTLY DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 75 AND
95 PERCENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMUM IMPACTS
TO THE AREA RIVER AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 34

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
CLIMATE...IAA/STAFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 171659
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1259 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1252 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...WITH ANY LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TODAY REMAINING NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +5 TO
+6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH INSOLATIONAL HEATING ...WE
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL LOW PASS TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING...AND THEN SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...TEMPS NOT ALL THAT COLD WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN
0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS...EXCEPT UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS
MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH
DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. WILL
LIKELY NEED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR MOST SECTIONS...EXCEPT FROST
ADVISORY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF
THE WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 32-36F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. HAVE MAINTAINED WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL. THE FREEZE WILL BE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL
ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE RADIATION FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER 04Z...WHICH MAY LINGER
UNTIL AROUND 14Z FRIDAY.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
NIGHTFALL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO BETWEEN +4 AND
+6 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON
TRACK WITH THE HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUING TO BE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING EAST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY GOING INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE OVER VT/NH/ME
WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE INTL BORDER IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A WEAK
SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC
SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME FROPA TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO START
MENTIONING LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW
YORK...AND ACROSS VERMONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS DIVERGE GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY COMPARED THE ECMWF IN REGARDS
TO THE HANDLING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. GFS DEVELOPS A
CLOSED CIRCULATION AT 500MB MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE BEST
AVAILABLE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE BTV CWA...WHILE
THE ECMWF REMAINS OPEN WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A SLOWER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. TO SUM IT UP...CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION BUT WITH BETTER CONSISTENCY HAVE
LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE GFS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME
LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPS BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL...SHIFT TO NEAR OR ABOVE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK BELOW TO END THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LINGERING MVFR/IFR AT KMPV WILL LIFT TO VFR
BY 13-14Z THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY SKC THIS MORNING UNTIL 15Z WHERE
THEREAFTER MID CLOUDS START TO STREAM IN AT 05-15KFT AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT...THOUGH DON`T EXPECT ANY
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY OR CIGS. WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER...FOG WON`T
BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT EITHER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IFR IN
EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR THOUGH CHANCES EXIST
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY...AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF






000
FXUS61 KBTV 171659
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1259 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1252 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...WITH ANY LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TODAY REMAINING NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +5 TO
+6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH INSOLATIONAL HEATING ...WE
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL LOW PASS TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING...AND THEN SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...TEMPS NOT ALL THAT COLD WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN
0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS...EXCEPT UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS
MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH
DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. WILL
LIKELY NEED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR MOST SECTIONS...EXCEPT FROST
ADVISORY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF
THE WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 32-36F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. HAVE MAINTAINED WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL. THE FREEZE WILL BE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL
ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE RADIATION FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER 04Z...WHICH MAY LINGER
UNTIL AROUND 14Z FRIDAY.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
NIGHTFALL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO BETWEEN +4 AND
+6 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON
TRACK WITH THE HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUING TO BE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING EAST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY GOING INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE OVER VT/NH/ME
WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE INTL BORDER IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A WEAK
SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC
SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME FROPA TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO START
MENTIONING LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW
YORK...AND ACROSS VERMONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS DIVERGE GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY COMPARED THE ECMWF IN REGARDS
TO THE HANDLING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. GFS DEVELOPS A
CLOSED CIRCULATION AT 500MB MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE BEST
AVAILABLE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE BTV CWA...WHILE
THE ECMWF REMAINS OPEN WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A SLOWER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. TO SUM IT UP...CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION BUT WITH BETTER CONSISTENCY HAVE
LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE GFS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME
LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPS BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL...SHIFT TO NEAR OR ABOVE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK BELOW TO END THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LINGERING MVFR/IFR AT KMPV WILL LIFT TO VFR
BY 13-14Z THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY SKC THIS MORNING UNTIL 15Z WHERE
THEREAFTER MID CLOUDS START TO STREAM IN AT 05-15KFT AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT...THOUGH DON`T EXPECT ANY
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY OR CIGS. WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER...FOG WON`T
BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT EITHER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IFR IN
EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR THOUGH CHANCES EXIST
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY...AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF







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