Home > Products > State Listing > Vermont Data
Latest:
 AFDBTV |  AFDALY |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 210916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
516 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
SHOWERS TO LINGER. SOME CLEARING IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGERING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 510 AM EDT...AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM CENTRAL NYS. A WEAK TRIPLE POINT SFC LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ. ALOFT...A POTENT VORT LOBE
WAS TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MORPHED
INTO A MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION.

WE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. THEN...AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT CLEARING TO DEVELOP...ESP IN VALLEY
REGIONS...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING AID TO SCOUR OUT
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
VALLEY AREAS BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS MAY
BE TOUGHER TO DISLODGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND GREATER LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND EASTERN CATSKILLS TOWARD
SUNSET...AS STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING...AND INCREASING DYNAMICAL
LIFT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OCCUR.

WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD REACH OR EXCEED
35 MPH...PARTICULARLY WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ONCE DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS.

MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY
REGIONS LATER TODAY...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE 40S ACROSS SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...WITH H500 TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND OR EVEN SLIGHTLY UNDER -30C...WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THESE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL PROMOTE
RATHER STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
TRACKS EAST...SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. IN FACT...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER SYNOPTIC LIFT SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SHOULD ANY PROLONGED CLEARING
OCCUR...EVEN COLDER MINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION WED AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
HOURS...AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HOW COLD THE MID
LEVELS WILL BE...AND ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM DYNAMICS AND
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN IN VALLEYS...ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES AND/OR GRAUPEL
MIXED IN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 50S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR...INTO THE 40S FOR VALLEYS...AND
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WED NT...SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE
SOME MINOR ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IT SHOULD BE RATHER
CHILLY...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU-THU NT...SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...DESPITE OVERALL
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC LIFT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS/FREQUENT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEYS...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED AND TRANSIENT. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHTER...SO IT SHOULD BE RATHER WINDY THU AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING 35-45 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THU NT SHOULD BE QUITE
COLD...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO
MID 30S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW...WITH SMALL UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
CYCLONIC FLOW...PERIODICALLY SLIGHTLY ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  MOST OF THE ENHANCED SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN LEE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE INTERVALS OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.  SPECIFIC TIMING OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NOT POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT WITH THE
DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE...SO BROADBRUSHING AT THIS POINT AND WILL
HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST OF OUR REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BUT SOME
INDICATIONS OF NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION IN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING LARGE CIRCULATION.  SO...ANY WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL...AS LONG AS NO OTHER
UPPER LOWS REPLACE THIS ONE OVER OUR REGION BEYOND 7 DAYS. WE CAN
ONLY WAIT AND SEE.

HIGHS IN THE 50S MANY AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AROUND 40 TO MID
40S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW FREEZING IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 09Z-10Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT EAST AFTER 09Z-10Z...BUT AREAS OF LIGHTER
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...WITH THE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER SHOWERS...
CEILINGS WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...BUT SHOULD PREDOMINANTLY
BE MVFR. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING AND CARRYING VCSH THROUGH ABOUT 15Z-17Z IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THROUGH 19Z AT KPSF. CEILING SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 3000
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES AND STAY VFR THIS EVENING.

VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS COULD BRIEFLY GUST NEAR 25 KT IN
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT BEFORE
DAYBREAK AT ALL TAF SITES.  THEN WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

DESPITE GUSTY WINDS...AND RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30-45
PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED AT
LEAST 0.25-0.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME AMTS OF NEAR OR OVER
AN INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

COOL...BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER...TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH SINCE MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS
HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN INCH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THIS RAINFALL...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOWMELT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WILL LEAD
TO WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.

AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FROM SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 210916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
516 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
SHOWERS TO LINGER. SOME CLEARING IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGERING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 510 AM EDT...AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM CENTRAL NYS. A WEAK TRIPLE POINT SFC LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ. ALOFT...A POTENT VORT LOBE
WAS TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MORPHED
INTO A MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION.

WE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. THEN...AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT CLEARING TO DEVELOP...ESP IN VALLEY
REGIONS...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING AID TO SCOUR OUT
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
VALLEY AREAS BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS MAY
BE TOUGHER TO DISLODGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND GREATER LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND EASTERN CATSKILLS TOWARD
SUNSET...AS STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING...AND INCREASING DYNAMICAL
LIFT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OCCUR.

WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD REACH OR EXCEED
35 MPH...PARTICULARLY WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ONCE DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS.

MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY
REGIONS LATER TODAY...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE 40S ACROSS SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...WITH H500 TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND OR EVEN SLIGHTLY UNDER -30C...WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THESE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL PROMOTE
RATHER STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
TRACKS EAST...SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. IN FACT...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER SYNOPTIC LIFT SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SHOULD ANY PROLONGED CLEARING
OCCUR...EVEN COLDER MINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION WED AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
HOURS...AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HOW COLD THE MID
LEVELS WILL BE...AND ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM DYNAMICS AND
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN IN VALLEYS...ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES AND/OR GRAUPEL
MIXED IN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 50S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR...INTO THE 40S FOR VALLEYS...AND
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WED NT...SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE
SOME MINOR ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IT SHOULD BE RATHER
CHILLY...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU-THU NT...SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...DESPITE OVERALL
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC LIFT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS/FREQUENT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEYS...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED AND TRANSIENT. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHTER...SO IT SHOULD BE RATHER WINDY THU AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING 35-45 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THU NT SHOULD BE QUITE
COLD...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO
MID 30S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW...WITH SMALL UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
CYCLONIC FLOW...PERIODICALLY SLIGHTLY ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  MOST OF THE ENHANCED SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN LEE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE INTERVALS OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.  SPECIFIC TIMING OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NOT POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT WITH THE
DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE...SO BROADBRUSHING AT THIS POINT AND WILL
HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST OF OUR REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BUT SOME
INDICATIONS OF NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION IN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING LARGE CIRCULATION.  SO...ANY WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL...AS LONG AS NO OTHER
UPPER LOWS REPLACE THIS ONE OVER OUR REGION BEYOND 7 DAYS. WE CAN
ONLY WAIT AND SEE.

HIGHS IN THE 50S MANY AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AROUND 40 TO MID
40S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW FREEZING IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 09Z-10Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT EAST AFTER 09Z-10Z...BUT AREAS OF LIGHTER
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...WITH THE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER SHOWERS...
CEILINGS WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...BUT SHOULD PREDOMINANTLY
BE MVFR. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING AND CARRYING VCSH THROUGH ABOUT 15Z-17Z IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THROUGH 19Z AT KPSF. CEILING SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 3000
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES AND STAY VFR THIS EVENING.

VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS COULD BRIEFLY GUST NEAR 25 KT IN
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT BEFORE
DAYBREAK AT ALL TAF SITES.  THEN WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

DESPITE GUSTY WINDS...AND RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30-45
PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED AT
LEAST 0.25-0.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME AMTS OF NEAR OR OVER
AN INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

COOL...BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER...TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH SINCE MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS
HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN INCH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THIS RAINFALL...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOWMELT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WILL LEAD
TO WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.

AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FROM SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT TIMES ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING EWD THRU THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED FRONTAL
RAINBAND WITHIN PLUME OF PW VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.2". MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (100-200 J/KG) ROOTED AROUND 900MB IS RESULTING IN
ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL
VT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSTM MENTION THRU 09Z FOR THE
SRN ZONES...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH POPS (80-100%) BEFORE
FRONT CLEARS ERN VT AROUND 15Z. INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD CLEAR EAST
OF VT BY 09-10Z ENDING ANY LIGHTNING THREAT AT THAT TIME. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.15-0.30" POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL RAINBAND...WITH
BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND OVERALL NOT
LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT FROM THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

ONCE SURFACE OCCLUSION PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING...MODERATELY
STRONG WSWLY FLOW AND MID-LVL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...SOUTH AND EAST OF CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTER NORTH OF THE
U.P. OF MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTN HRS FOR MOST SECTIONS...AND EVEN A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EARLY EVENING HRS. SURFACE WINDS
INITIALLY LIGHT S-SW THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...ALL GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 40KTS TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS NRN NY MID-LATE
AFTN...AND 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. LOW-MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE OFFSET BY PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. TODAY LIKELY OUR WARMEST DAY THRU
AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR 60F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
VT (FCST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS GIVEN MILD START THIS
MORNING)...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 50S ACROSS NRN NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO TO START THE PERIOD TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AS OUR
CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM. AFTER
BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WILL BE LOOKING AT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE WITH TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURES EMBEDDED
WITHIN MODERATELY FAST CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED
MID-LEVEL CENTER. GFS AND MESOSCALE MODELS RELATIVELY CONSISTENTLY
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION 18Z WED THRU 03Z THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST POPS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID-UPR 30S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
WEDNESDAY...AND CLOSER TO 50F ON THURSDAY. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN STARTING 06Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THURSDAY (AND INTO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD). MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS 06Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COOL(MINUS 2-3 STD DEV HGTS AND TEMPS)
CLOSED UPPER TROF WHICH DEVELOPS OVER MAINE ON FRIDAY WILL DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP US COOL AND MOIST.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WHILE THE GFS/GEFS
KEEP THE CYCLONIC FLOW GOING INTO MONDAY THE ECMWF STARTS MOVING
IT FURTHER EAST SUCH THAT BY MONDAY A DRIER A BIT WARMER SOLUTION
IS GIVEN.

ALL IN ALL THIS WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SUMMITS. A VARYING FREEZING
LEVEL...HIGHER BY DAY...UP TO 2500 FT MSL...AND LOWER BY
NIGHT...DOWN TO BLO 1000 FT...WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES SNOW AND
WHO DOESN`T. THE BEST BET FOR SNOW REACHING THE VALLEY FLOORS
LOOKS LIKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNINGS. THERE SHOULDN`T BE TOO MUCH
SNOW ACCUMULATION...IF ANY...IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT COULD
ADD UP ON THE SUMMITS. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER LOWER 30S OR THERE ABOUTS WITH A TREND
TOWARD MILDER WEATHER BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH 12Z THEN CONTINUED SHOWERS AND MIST
THROUGH 15-18Z THEN BACK TO VFR AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT GRADUALLY
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED
WITH LOCAL GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDER EARLY, THEN SW
GUSTING 20-30KT AT KMSS/KSLK BY 18Z LIGHTER ELSEWHERE, PERHAPS 15
TO 20 KTS AT KBTV LATE.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT TIMES ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING EWD THRU THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED FRONTAL
RAINBAND WITHIN PLUME OF PW VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.2". MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (100-200 J/KG) ROOTED AROUND 900MB IS RESULTING IN
ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL
VT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSTM MENTION THRU 09Z FOR THE
SRN ZONES...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH POPS (80-100%) BEFORE
FRONT CLEARS ERN VT AROUND 15Z. INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD CLEAR EAST
OF VT BY 09-10Z ENDING ANY LIGHTNING THREAT AT THAT TIME. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.15-0.30" POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL RAINBAND...WITH
BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND OVERALL NOT
LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT FROM THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

ONCE SURFACE OCCLUSION PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING...MODERATELY
STRONG WSWLY FLOW AND MID-LVL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...SOUTH AND EAST OF CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTER NORTH OF THE
U.P. OF MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTN HRS FOR MOST SECTIONS...AND EVEN A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EARLY EVENING HRS. SURFACE WINDS
INITIALLY LIGHT S-SW THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...ALL GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 40KTS TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS NRN NY MID-LATE
AFTN...AND 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. LOW-MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE OFFSET BY PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. TODAY LIKELY OUR WARMEST DAY THRU
AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR 60F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
VT (FCST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS GIVEN MILD START THIS
MORNING)...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 50S ACROSS NRN NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO TO START THE PERIOD TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AS OUR
CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM. AFTER
BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WILL BE LOOKING AT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE WITH TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURES EMBEDDED
WITHIN MODERATELY FAST CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED
MID-LEVEL CENTER. GFS AND MESOSCALE MODELS RELATIVELY CONSISTENTLY
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION 18Z WED THRU 03Z THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST POPS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID-UPR 30S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
WEDNESDAY...AND CLOSER TO 50F ON THURSDAY. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN STARTING 06Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THURSDAY (AND INTO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD). MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS 06Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COOL(MINUS 2-3 STD DEV HGTS AND TEMPS)
CLOSED UPPER TROF WHICH DEVELOPS OVER MAINE ON FRIDAY WILL DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP US COOL AND MOIST.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WHILE THE GFS/GEFS
KEEP THE CYCLONIC FLOW GOING INTO MONDAY THE ECMWF STARTS MOVING
IT FURTHER EAST SUCH THAT BY MONDAY A DRIER A BIT WARMER SOLUTION
IS GIVEN.

ALL IN ALL THIS WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SUMMITS. A VARYING FREEZING
LEVEL...HIGHER BY DAY...UP TO 2500 FT MSL...AND LOWER BY
NIGHT...DOWN TO BLO 1000 FT...WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES SNOW AND
WHO DOESN`T. THE BEST BET FOR SNOW REACHING THE VALLEY FLOORS
LOOKS LIKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNINGS. THERE SHOULDN`T BE TOO MUCH
SNOW ACCUMULATION...IF ANY...IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT COULD
ADD UP ON THE SUMMITS. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER LOWER 30S OR THERE ABOUTS WITH A TREND
TOWARD MILDER WEATHER BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH 12Z THEN CONTINUED SHOWERS AND MIST
THROUGH 15-18Z THEN BACK TO VFR AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT GRADUALLY
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED
WITH LOCAL GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDER EARLY, THEN SW
GUSTING 20-30KT AT KMSS/KSLK BY 18Z LIGHTER ELSEWHERE, PERHAPS 15
TO 20 KTS AT KBTV LATE.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT TIMES ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING EWD THRU THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED FRONTAL
RAINBAND WITHIN PLUME OF PW VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.2". MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (100-200 J/KG) ROOTED AROUND 900MB IS RESULTING IN
ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL
VT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSTM MENTION THRU 09Z FOR THE
SRN ZONES...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH POPS (80-100%) BEFORE
FRONT CLEARS ERN VT AROUND 15Z. INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD CLEAR EAST
OF VT BY 09-10Z ENDING ANY LIGHTNING THREAT AT THAT TIME. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.15-0.30" POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL RAINBAND...WITH
BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND OVERALL NOT
LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT FROM THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

ONCE SURFACE OCCLUSION PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING...MODERATELY
STRONG WSWLY FLOW AND MID-LVL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...SOUTH AND EAST OF CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTER NORTH OF THE
U.P. OF MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTN HRS FOR MOST SECTIONS...AND EVEN A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EARLY EVENING HRS. SURFACE WINDS
INITIALLY LIGHT S-SW THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...ALL GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 40KTS TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS NRN NY MID-LATE
AFTN...AND 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. LOW-MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE OFFSET BY PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. TODAY LIKELY OUR WARMEST DAY THRU
AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR 60F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
VT (FCST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS GIVEN MILD START THIS
MORNING)...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 50S ACROSS NRN NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO TO START THE PERIOD TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AS OUR
CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM. AFTER
BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WILL BE LOOKING AT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE WITH TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURES EMBEDDED
WITHIN MODERATELY FAST CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED
MID-LEVEL CENTER. GFS AND MESOSCALE MODELS RELATIVELY CONSISTENTLY
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION 18Z WED THRU 03Z THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST POPS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID-UPR 30S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
WEDNESDAY...AND CLOSER TO 50F ON THURSDAY. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN STARTING 06Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THURSDAY (AND INTO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD). MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS 06Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COOL(MINUS 2-3 STD DEV HGTS AND TEMPS)
CLOSED UPPER TROF WHICH DEVELOPS OVER MAINE ON FRIDAY WILL DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP US COOL AND MOIST.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WHILE THE GFS/GEFS
KEEP THE CYCLONIC FLOW GOING INTO MONDAY THE ECMWF STARTS MOVING
IT FURTHER EAST SUCH THAT BY MONDAY A DRIER A BIT WARMER SOLUTION
IS GIVEN.

ALL IN ALL THIS WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SUMMITS. A VARYING FREEZING
LEVEL...HIGHER BY DAY...UP TO 2500 FT MSL...AND LOWER BY
NIGHT...DOWN TO BLO 1000 FT...WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES SNOW AND
WHO DOESN`T. THE BEST BET FOR SNOW REACHING THE VALLEY FLOORS
LOOKS LIKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNINGS. THERE SHOULDN`T BE TOO MUCH
SNOW ACCUMULATION...IF ANY...IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT COULD
ADD UP ON THE SUMMITS. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER LOWER 30S OR THERE ABOUTS WITH A TREND
TOWARD MILDER WEATHER BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH 12Z THEN CONTINUED SHOWERS AND MIST
THROUGH 15-18Z THEN BACK TO VFR AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT GRADUALLY
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED
WITH LOCAL GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDER EARLY, THEN SW
GUSTING 20-30KT AT KMSS/KSLK BY 18Z LIGHTER ELSEWHERE, PERHAPS 15
TO 20 KTS AT KBTV LATE.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT TIMES ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING EWD THRU THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED FRONTAL
RAINBAND WITHIN PLUME OF PW VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.2". MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (100-200 J/KG) ROOTED AROUND 900MB IS RESULTING IN
ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL
VT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSTM MENTION THRU 09Z FOR THE
SRN ZONES...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH POPS (80-100%) BEFORE
FRONT CLEARS ERN VT AROUND 15Z. INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD CLEAR EAST
OF VT BY 09-10Z ENDING ANY LIGHTNING THREAT AT THAT TIME. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.15-0.30" POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL RAINBAND...WITH
BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND OVERALL NOT
LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT FROM THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

ONCE SURFACE OCCLUSION PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING...MODERATELY
STRONG WSWLY FLOW AND MID-LVL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...SOUTH AND EAST OF CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTER NORTH OF THE
U.P. OF MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTN HRS FOR MOST SECTIONS...AND EVEN A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EARLY EVENING HRS. SURFACE WINDS
INITIALLY LIGHT S-SW THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...ALL GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 40KTS TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS NRN NY MID-LATE
AFTN...AND 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. LOW-MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE OFFSET BY PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. TODAY LIKELY OUR WARMEST DAY THRU
AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR 60F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
VT (FCST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS GIVEN MILD START THIS
MORNING)...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 50S ACROSS NRN NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO TO START THE PERIOD TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AS OUR
CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM. AFTER
BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WILL BE LOOKING AT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE WITH TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURES EMBEDDED
WITHIN MODERATELY FAST CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED
MID-LEVEL CENTER. GFS AND MESOSCALE MODELS RELATIVELY CONSISTENTLY
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION 18Z WED THRU 03Z THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST POPS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID-UPR 30S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
WEDNESDAY...AND CLOSER TO 50F ON THURSDAY. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN STARTING 06Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THURSDAY (AND INTO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD). MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS 06Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COOL(MINUS 2-3 STD DEV HGTS AND TEMPS)
CLOSED UPPER TROF WHICH DEVELOPS OVER MAINE ON FRIDAY WILL DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP US COOL AND MOIST.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WHILE THE GFS/GEFS
KEEP THE CYCLONIC FLOW GOING INTO MONDAY THE ECMWF STARTS MOVING
IT FURTHER EAST SUCH THAT BY MONDAY A DRIER A BIT WARMER SOLUTION
IS GIVEN.

ALL IN ALL THIS WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SUMMITS. A VARYING FREEZING
LEVEL...HIGHER BY DAY...UP TO 2500 FT MSL...AND LOWER BY
NIGHT...DOWN TO BLO 1000 FT...WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES SNOW AND
WHO DOESN`T. THE BEST BET FOR SNOW REACHING THE VALLEY FLOORS
LOOKS LIKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNINGS. THERE SHOULDN`T BE TOO MUCH
SNOW ACCUMULATION...IF ANY...IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT COULD
ADD UP ON THE SUMMITS. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER LOWER 30S OR THERE ABOUTS WITH A TREND
TOWARD MILDER WEATHER BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH 12Z THEN CONTINUED SHOWERS AND MIST
THROUGH 15-18Z THEN BACK TO VFR AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT GRADUALLY
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED
WITH LOCAL GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDER EARLY, THEN SW
GUSTING 20-30KT AT KMSS/KSLK BY 18Z LIGHTER ELSEWHERE, PERHAPS 15
TO 20 KTS AT KBTV LATE.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT TIMES ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...OCCULDED FRONT PUSHING EWD THRU THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED FRONTAL
RAINBAND WITHIN PLUME OF PW VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.2". MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (100-200 J/KG) ROOTED AROUND 900MB IS RESULTING IN
ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL
VT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSTM MENTION THRU 09Z FOR THE
SRN ZONES...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH POPS (80-100%) BEFORE
FRONT CLEARS ERN VT AROUND 15Z. INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD CLEAR EAST
OF VT BY 09-10Z ENDING ANY LIGHTNING THREAT AT THAT TIME. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.15-0.30" POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL RAINBAND...WITH
BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND OVERALL NOT
LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT FROM THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

ONCE SURFACE OCCLUSION PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING...MODERATELY
STRONG WSWLY FLOW AND MID-LVL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...SOUTH AND EAST OF CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTER NORTH OF THE
U.P. OF MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTN HRS FOR MOST SECTIONS...AND EVEN A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EARLY EVENING HRS. SURFACE WINDS
INITIALLY LIGHT S-SW THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...ALL GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 40KTS TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS NRN NY MID-LATE
AFTN...AND 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. LOW-MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE OFFSET BY PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. TODAY LIKELY OUR WARMEST DAY THRU
AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR 60F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
VT (FCST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS GIVEN MILD START THIS
MORNING)...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 50S ACROSS NRN NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO TO START THE PERIOD TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AS OUR
CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM. AFTER
BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WILL BE LOOKING AT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE WITH TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURES EMBEDDED
WITHIN MODERATELY FAST CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED
MID-LEVEL CENTER. GFS AND MESOSCALE MODELS RELATIVELY CONSISTENTLY
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION 18Z WED THRU 03Z THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST POPS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID-UPR 30S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
WEDNESDAY...AND CLOSER TO 50F ON THURSDAY. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN STARTING 06Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THURSDAY (AND INTO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD). MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS 06Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITIES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 210544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS NOW ENTERED WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING
FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THIS
LINE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND ARE
TRANSLATING NORTH/NORTHEAST. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS...AND ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TALLER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AS WE HAD ONE SPOTTER FROM HIGHLAND
NY IN ULSTER CO REPORT PEA SIZE HAIL WITH ONE CELL.

THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE
WEST...AND ALSO AIDED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET CORE
OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...PLACING OUR REGION WITHIN
ITS LEFT EXIT REGION.

A POTENT VORT LOBE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL ROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACH TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS
OF STEADY...MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES.

TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS RISE A BIT IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE FALLING SEVERAL DEGREES AGAIN CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK...WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 09Z-10Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT EAST AFTER 09Z-10Z...BUT AREAS OF LIGHTER
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...WITH THE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER SHOWERS...
CEILINGS WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...BUT SHOULD PREDOMINANTLY
BE MVFR. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING AND CARRYING VCSH THROUGH ABOUT 15Z-17Z IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THROUGH 19Z AT KPSF. CEILING SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 3000
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES AND STAY VFR THIS EVENING.

VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS COULD BRIEFLY GUST NEAR 25 KT IN
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT BEFORE
DAYBREAK AT ALL TAF SITES.  THEN WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 210544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS NOW ENTERED WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING
FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THIS
LINE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND ARE
TRANSLATING NORTH/NORTHEAST. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS...AND ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TALLER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AS WE HAD ONE SPOTTER FROM HIGHLAND
NY IN ULSTER CO REPORT PEA SIZE HAIL WITH ONE CELL.

THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE
WEST...AND ALSO AIDED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET CORE
OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...PLACING OUR REGION WITHIN
ITS LEFT EXIT REGION.

A POTENT VORT LOBE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL ROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACH TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS
OF STEADY...MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES.

TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS RISE A BIT IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE FALLING SEVERAL DEGREES AGAIN CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK...WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 09Z-10Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT EAST AFTER 09Z-10Z...BUT AREAS OF LIGHTER
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...WITH THE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER SHOWERS...
CEILINGS WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...BUT SHOULD PREDOMINANTLY
BE MVFR. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING AND CARRYING VCSH THROUGH ABOUT 15Z-17Z IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THROUGH 19Z AT KPSF. CEILING SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 3000
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES AND STAY VFR THIS EVENING.

VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS COULD BRIEFLY GUST NEAR 25 KT IN
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT BEFORE
DAYBREAK AT ALL TAF SITES.  THEN WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 210452
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1252 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS NOW ENTERED WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING
FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THIS
LINE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND ARE
TRANSLATING NORTH/NORTHEAST. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS...AND ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TALLER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AS WE HAD ONE SPOTTER FROM HIGHLAND
NY IN ULSTER CO REPORT PEA SIZE HAIL WITH ONE CELL.

THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE
WEST...AND ALSO AIDED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET CORE
OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...PLACING OUR REGION WITHIN
ITS LEFT EXIT REGION.

A POTENT VORT LOBE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL ROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACH TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS
OF STEADY...MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES.

TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS RISE A BIT IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE FALLING SEVERAL DEGREES AGAIN CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK...WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. HAVE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO
INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES AS WE APPROACH
MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR DEVELOPING.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT. WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS AREA. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...
TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE THE FLOW HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES
THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH ITS PASSAGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND WILL BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 210452
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1252 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS NOW ENTERED WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING
FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THIS
LINE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND ARE
TRANSLATING NORTH/NORTHEAST. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS...AND ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TALLER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AS WE HAD ONE SPOTTER FROM HIGHLAND
NY IN ULSTER CO REPORT PEA SIZE HAIL WITH ONE CELL.

THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE
WEST...AND ALSO AIDED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET CORE
OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...PLACING OUR REGION WITHIN
ITS LEFT EXIT REGION.

A POTENT VORT LOBE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL ROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACH TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS
OF STEADY...MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES.

TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS RISE A BIT IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE FALLING SEVERAL DEGREES AGAIN CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK...WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. HAVE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO
INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES AS WE APPROACH
MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR DEVELOPING.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT. WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS AREA. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...
TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE THE FLOW HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES
THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH ITS PASSAGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND WILL BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 210452
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1252 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS NOW ENTERED WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING
FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THIS
LINE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND ARE
TRANSLATING NORTH/NORTHEAST. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS...AND ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TALLER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AS WE HAD ONE SPOTTER FROM HIGHLAND
NY IN ULSTER CO REPORT PEA SIZE HAIL WITH ONE CELL.

THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE
WEST...AND ALSO AIDED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET CORE
OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...PLACING OUR REGION WITHIN
ITS LEFT EXIT REGION.

A POTENT VORT LOBE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL ROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACH TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS
OF STEADY...MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES.

TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS RISE A BIT IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE FALLING SEVERAL DEGREES AGAIN CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK...WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. HAVE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO
INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES AS WE APPROACH
MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR DEVELOPING.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT. WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS AREA. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...
TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE THE FLOW HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES
THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH ITS PASSAGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND WILL BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 210452
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1252 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS NOW ENTERED WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING
FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THIS
LINE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND ARE
TRANSLATING NORTH/NORTHEAST. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS...AND ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TALLER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AS WE HAD ONE SPOTTER FROM HIGHLAND
NY IN ULSTER CO REPORT PEA SIZE HAIL WITH ONE CELL.

THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE
WEST...AND ALSO AIDED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET CORE
OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...PLACING OUR REGION WITHIN
ITS LEFT EXIT REGION.

A POTENT VORT LOBE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL ROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACH TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS
OF STEADY...MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES.

TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS RISE A BIT IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE FALLING SEVERAL DEGREES AGAIN CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK...WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. HAVE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO
INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES AS WE APPROACH
MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR DEVELOPING.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT. WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS AREA. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...
TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE THE FLOW HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES
THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH ITS PASSAGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND WILL BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1234 AM EDT TUESDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST IS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL IN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND FROM NEAR MSS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND NERN PA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES REMAIN ON NRN FRINGE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
900MB LIFTED PARCELS REALIZING 100-200 J/KG MUCAPE NEXT FEW HRS
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO S-CENTRAL VT. EXPANDED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER EWD ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE.
FRONTAL BAND IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH PW VALUES OF 1-1.2". BASED ON
RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS...A QUICK 0.25" RAINFALL
APPEARS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO
RUTLAND COUNTY VT. ALSO...ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TIMING OF RAINBAND. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH FROM CURRENT
READINGS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPR 40S AREAWIDE.
SURFACE WINDS SE WINDS 10-15 MPH WILL GENERALLY SHIFT INTO THE
SOUTH AND SW TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SURFACE TROUGH/OCCULSION PASSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1234 AM EDT TUESDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST IS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL IN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND FROM NEAR MSS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND NERN PA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES REMAIN ON NRN FRINGE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
900MB LIFTED PARCELS REALIZING 100-200 J/KG MUCAPE NEXT FEW HRS
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO S-CENTRAL VT. EXPANDED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER EWD ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE.
FRONTAL BAND IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH PW VALUES OF 1-1.2". BASED ON
RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS...A QUICK 0.25" RAINFALL
APPEARS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO
RUTLAND COUNTY VT. ALSO...ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TIMING OF RAINBAND. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH FROM CURRENT
READINGS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPR 40S AREAWIDE.
SURFACE WINDS SE WINDS 10-15 MPH WILL GENERALLY SHIFT INTO THE
SOUTH AND SW TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SURFACE TROUGH/OCCULSION PASSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1234 AM EDT TUESDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST IS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL IN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND FROM NEAR MSS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND NERN PA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES REMAIN ON NRN FRINGE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
900MB LIFTED PARCELS REALIZING 100-200 J/KG MUCAPE NEXT FEW HRS
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO S-CENTRAL VT. EXPANDED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER EWD ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE.
FRONTAL BAND IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH PW VALUES OF 1-1.2". BASED ON
RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS...A QUICK 0.25" RAINFALL
APPEARS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO
RUTLAND COUNTY VT. ALSO...ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TIMING OF RAINBAND. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH FROM CURRENT
READINGS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPR 40S AREAWIDE.
SURFACE WINDS SE WINDS 10-15 MPH WILL GENERALLY SHIFT INTO THE
SOUTH AND SW TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SURFACE TROUGH/OCCULSION PASSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1053 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1053 PM EDT MONDAY...GUSTY WINDS FROM EARLIER TODAY
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. THUS...HAVE
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN UP ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS HOUR...SO HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES IN
A FEW LOCATIONS. WILL STILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS SHOWING AIR
REAINS QUITE STABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1053 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1053 PM EDT MONDAY...GUSTY WINDS FROM EARLIER TODAY
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. THUS...HAVE
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN UP ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS HOUR...SO HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES IN
A FEW LOCATIONS. WILL STILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS SHOWING AIR
REAINS QUITE STABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1053 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1053 PM EDT MONDAY...GUSTY WINDS FROM EARLIER TODAY
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. THUS...HAVE
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN UP ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS HOUR...SO HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES IN
A FEW LOCATIONS. WILL STILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS SHOWING AIR
REAINS QUITE STABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1053 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1053 PM EDT MONDAY...GUSTY WINDS FROM EARLIER TODAY
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. THUS...HAVE
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN UP ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS HOUR...SO HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES IN
A FEW LOCATIONS. WILL STILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS SHOWING AIR
REAINS QUITE STABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KALY 210200
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND FOR BENNINGTON AND
WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES. THE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED HOWEVER THEY
DO REMAIN BRISK AND GUSTY IN THE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED HOWEVER THEY DO REMAIN BRISK AND GUSTY IN
SOME LOCATIONS.SOME LOCATIONS.

AS OF 945 PM...HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. HAVE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
BETTER REFLECT CURRENT ACTIVITY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY
GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO INCREASE
POPS THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD AN OCCLUDING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCREASES THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION.

THE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTER INDICES
BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO HAVE KEEP MENTION
OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG THETA-E
RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURE TRENDS SINCE THE LAST UPDATE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES HAVE
DROPPED SLOWLY WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. HAVE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO
INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES AS WE APPROACH
MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR DEVELOPING.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT. WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS AREA. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...
TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE THE FLOW HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES
THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH ITS PASSAGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND WILL BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 210147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
947 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND FOR
BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES. HOWEVER RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS.

AS OF 945 PM...HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. HAVE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
BETTER REFLECT CURRENT ACTIVITY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY
GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO INCREASE
POPS THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD AN OCCLUDING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCREASES THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION.

THE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTER INDICES
BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO HAVE KEEP MENTION
OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG THETA-E
RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURE TRENDS SINCE THE LAST UPDATE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES HAVE
DROPPED SLOWLY WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. HAVE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO
INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES AS WE APPROACH
MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR DEVELOPING.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT. WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS AREA. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...
TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE THE FLOW HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES
THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH ITS PASSAGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND WILL BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 210036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
836 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND FOR
BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES. HOWEVER RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO
DROP THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY.

HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. HAVE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT ACTIVITY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO INCREASE POPS
THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INCREASES THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION.

THE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTER INDICES
BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO HAVE KEEP MENTION
OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG THETA-E
RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. HAVE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO
INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES AS WE APPROACH
MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR DEVELOPING.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT. WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS AREA. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...
TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE THE FLOW HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES
THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH ITS PASSAGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND WILL BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 210036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
836 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND FOR
BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES. HOWEVER RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO
DROP THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY.

HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. HAVE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT ACTIVITY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO INCREASE POPS
THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INCREASES THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION.

THE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTER INDICES
BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO HAVE KEEP MENTION
OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG THETA-E
RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. HAVE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO
INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES AS WE APPROACH
MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR DEVELOPING.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT. WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS AREA. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...
TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE THE FLOW HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES
THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH ITS PASSAGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND WILL BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 210036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
836 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND FOR
BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES. HOWEVER RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO
DROP THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY.

HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. HAVE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT ACTIVITY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO INCREASE POPS
THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INCREASES THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION.

THE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTER INDICES
BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO HAVE KEEP MENTION
OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG THETA-E
RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. HAVE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO
INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES AS WE APPROACH
MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR DEVELOPING.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT. WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS AREA. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...
TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE THE FLOW HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES
THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH ITS PASSAGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND WILL BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202352
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
752 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 752 PM EDT MONDAY...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP HAVE UPPER THE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS
...AND HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT HIGHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION AS WELL. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE
INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MESOANALYSIS SHOWING THE AREA IS MAINLY STABLE
ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.

WILL LEAVE UP THE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME...BUT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN A DIMINISHING
TREND IN WIND GUSTS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WILL LIKELY DROP THE
WIND ADVISORY BEFORE THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE AND LIKELY BEFORE
THE MIDNIGHT EXPIRATION TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT. AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT
NORTHEAST WITH PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN BEHIND
IT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND HAVE CARRIED MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY 06- 12Z. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE FAR FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES...MAINLY
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
AND WINDS STAYING UP MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 202352
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
752 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 752 PM EDT MONDAY...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP HAVE UPPER THE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS
...AND HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT HIGHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION AS WELL. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE
INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MESOANALYSIS SHOWING THE AREA IS MAINLY STABLE
ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.

WILL LEAVE UP THE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME...BUT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN A DIMINISHING
TREND IN WIND GUSTS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WILL LIKELY DROP THE
WIND ADVISORY BEFORE THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE AND LIKELY BEFORE
THE MIDNIGHT EXPIRATION TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT. AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT
NORTHEAST WITH PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN BEHIND
IT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND HAVE CARRIED MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY 06- 12Z. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE FAR FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES...MAINLY
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
AND WINDS STAYING UP MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202352
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
752 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 752 PM EDT MONDAY...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP HAVE UPPER THE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS
...AND HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT HIGHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION AS WELL. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE
INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MESOANALYSIS SHOWING THE AREA IS MAINLY STABLE
ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.

WILL LEAVE UP THE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME...BUT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN A DIMINISHING
TREND IN WIND GUSTS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WILL LIKELY DROP THE
WIND ADVISORY BEFORE THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE AND LIKELY BEFORE
THE MIDNIGHT EXPIRATION TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT. AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT
NORTHEAST WITH PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN BEHIND
IT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND HAVE CARRIED MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY 06- 12Z. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE FAR FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES...MAINLY
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
AND WINDS STAYING UP MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202352
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
752 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 752 PM EDT MONDAY...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP HAVE UPPER THE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS
...AND HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT HIGHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION AS WELL. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE
INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MESOANALYSIS SHOWING THE AREA IS MAINLY STABLE
ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.

WILL LEAVE UP THE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME...BUT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN A DIMINISHING
TREND IN WIND GUSTS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WILL LIKELY DROP THE
WIND ADVISORY BEFORE THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE AND LIKELY BEFORE
THE MIDNIGHT EXPIRATION TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT. AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT
NORTHEAST WITH PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN BEHIND
IT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND HAVE CARRIED MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY 06- 12Z. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE FAR FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES...MAINLY
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
AND WINDS STAYING UP MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 202318
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.
AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN BEHIND IT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND HAVE CARRIED MENTION FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY 06- 12Z. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
FAR FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP MUCH
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202318
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.
AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN BEHIND IT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND HAVE CARRIED MENTION FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY 06- 12Z. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
FAR FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP MUCH
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 202318
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.
AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN BEHIND IT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND HAVE CARRIED MENTION FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY 06- 12Z. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
FAR FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP MUCH
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 202318
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.
AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN BEHIND IT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND HAVE CARRIED MENTION FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY 06- 12Z. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
FAR FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP MUCH
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KALY 202030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE
GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW
YORK...BERKSHIRES IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND BENNINGTON AND
WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. IN THESE AREAS A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE AND WINDS MAY GUST UP TO
50 MPH. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS A WARM LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM
PENNSYLVANIA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GET PINCHED OFF JUST SOUTH
OF OUR FA TONIGHT AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ON THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MAY
ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BETWEEN ...WITH SHOWALTER INDICES
DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -2C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT LEAST THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG THETA-E RIDGE WHICH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION BTWN H10 AND H8 OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY LOW VFR/MVFR FOR THE E-CNTRL NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REDUCTIONS TO
IFR LEVELS AT KPOU IN TERMS OF VSBYS. THERE TREND WILL BE FOR THE
CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS FOR KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL
WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH. THE BEST CHC OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BTWN 21Z-00Z WILL BE AT KPOU/KPSF.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN WILL LIKELY OCCUR BTWN 21Z-01Z WITH JUST
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT AROUND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD AN
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WITH SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER BTWN 01Z-04Z.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE QUESTION WILL BE
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH...AND IT TRANSITIONS TO PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS/RAIN AND DRIZZLE
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WERE FORECASTED PRIMARILY BTWN 06Z-14Z/TUE.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS BTWN 14Z-
16Z/TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

LLWS GROUPS WERE KEPT IN UNTIL 21Z/MON AT KGFL/KPOU. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL JET IS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE 2FT AGL
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE 30-35 KTS A FEW MORE HOURS.

THE E/SE WINDS CONTINUE AT 8-15 KFT AT KALB/KPSF...WITH SOME GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NE TO
SE AT 5-10 KTS AFTER 21Z...AND THE BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM
THE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 202030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE
GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW
YORK...BERKSHIRES IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND BENNINGTON AND
WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. IN THESE AREAS A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE AND WINDS MAY GUST UP TO
50 MPH. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS A WARM LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM
PENNSYLVANIA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GET PINCHED OFF JUST SOUTH
OF OUR FA TONIGHT AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ON THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MAY
ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BETWEEN ...WITH SHOWALTER INDICES
DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -2C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT LEAST THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG THETA-E RIDGE WHICH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION BTWN H10 AND H8 OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY LOW VFR/MVFR FOR THE E-CNTRL NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REDUCTIONS TO
IFR LEVELS AT KPOU IN TERMS OF VSBYS. THERE TREND WILL BE FOR THE
CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS FOR KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL
WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH. THE BEST CHC OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BTWN 21Z-00Z WILL BE AT KPOU/KPSF.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN WILL LIKELY OCCUR BTWN 21Z-01Z WITH JUST
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT AROUND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD AN
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WITH SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER BTWN 01Z-04Z.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE QUESTION WILL BE
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH...AND IT TRANSITIONS TO PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS/RAIN AND DRIZZLE
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WERE FORECASTED PRIMARILY BTWN 06Z-14Z/TUE.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS BTWN 14Z-
16Z/TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

LLWS GROUPS WERE KEPT IN UNTIL 21Z/MON AT KGFL/KPOU. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL JET IS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE 2FT AGL
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE 30-35 KTS A FEW MORE HOURS.

THE E/SE WINDS CONTINUE AT 8-15 KFT AT KALB/KPSF...WITH SOME GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NE TO
SE AT 5-10 KTS AFTER 21Z...AND THE BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM
THE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201931
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.
AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN BEHIND IT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND HAVE CARRIED MENTION FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY 06- 12Z. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
FAR FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP MUCH
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MOST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 KTS AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT AND
SLK. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS PRODUCING PERIODS
OF MVFR THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS
WILL SEE ALL SITES IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z. TONIGHT, AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, PRODUCING AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH INTERVALS OF IFR
POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY. WINDS PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE MID-LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 201931
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.
AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN BEHIND IT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND HAVE CARRIED MENTION FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY 06- 12Z. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
FAR FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP MUCH
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MOST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 KTS AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT AND
SLK. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS PRODUCING PERIODS
OF MVFR THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS
WILL SEE ALL SITES IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z. TONIGHT, AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, PRODUCING AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH INTERVALS OF IFR
POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY. WINDS PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE MID-LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201926
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE.

MAIN UPDATE FOR THE 1030 AM FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO ADD IN MENTION
OF SLEET AND SNOW. SEEMS THAT WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING
DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH...THE SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN DRY SLOT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY, THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DO APPROACH 1"
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN BEING
MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COINCIDING WITH A
STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DACKS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MOST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 KTS AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT AND
SLK. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS PRODUCING PERIODS
OF MVFR THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS
WILL SEE ALL SITES IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z. TONIGHT, AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, PRODUCING AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH INTERVALS OF IFR
POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY. WINDS PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE MID-LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201926
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE.

MAIN UPDATE FOR THE 1030 AM FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO ADD IN MENTION
OF SLEET AND SNOW. SEEMS THAT WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING
DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH...THE SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN DRY SLOT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY, THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DO APPROACH 1"
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN BEING
MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COINCIDING WITH A
STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DACKS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MOST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 KTS AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT AND
SLK. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS PRODUCING PERIODS
OF MVFR THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS
WILL SEE ALL SITES IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z. TONIGHT, AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, PRODUCING AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH INTERVALS OF IFR
POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY. WINDS PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE MID-LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 201805
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
205 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...THE SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF THE WARM OVER THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME RETOOLING OF THE POPS...AND HOURLY TEMPS
BASED ON THE RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS TRENDS. THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE PCPN TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN VT CORRIDOR.
SOME DOWNSLOPING DUE TO THE STRONG E/SE LLJ MAY LIMIT THE MODERATE
RAINFALL EXPANSION INTO THE UPPER HUDSON REGION...AND WEST OF THE
SRN GREENS. THE HIGHER TOTALS OF A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS THROUGH. SOME
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED AT KDDH AND KAQW.  THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...SOME WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE RAIN INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING
OCCURS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THE THREAT OF STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S TO ABOUT 50F OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE
UPPER HUDSON REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION AND PARTS OF SRN VT WHERE
SOME OF THE MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY LOW VFR/MVFR FOR THE E-CNTRL NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REDUCTIONS TO
IFR LEVELS AT KPOU IN TERMS OF VSBYS. THERE TREND WILL BE FOR THE
CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS FOR KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL
WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH. THE BEST CHC OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BTWN 21Z-00Z WILL BE AT KPOU/KPSF.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN WILL LIKELY OCCUR BTWN 21Z-01Z WITH JUST
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT AROUND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD AN
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WITH SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER BTWN 01Z-04Z.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE QUESTION WILL BE
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH...AND IT TRANSITIONS TO PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS/RAIN AND DRIZZLE
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WERE FORECASTED PRIMARILY BTWN 06Z-14Z/TUE.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS BTWN 14Z-
16Z/TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

LLWS GROUPS WERE KEPT IN UNTIL 21Z/MON AT KGFL/KPOU. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL JET IS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE 2FT AGL
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE 30-35 KTS A FEW MORE HOURS.

THE E/SE WINDS CONTINUE AT 8-15 KFT AT KALB/KPSF...WITH SOME GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NE TO
SE AT 5-10 KTS AFTER 21Z...AND THE BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM
THE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 201805
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
205 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...THE SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF THE WARM OVER THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME RETOOLING OF THE POPS...AND HOURLY TEMPS
BASED ON THE RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS TRENDS. THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE PCPN TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN VT CORRIDOR.
SOME DOWNSLOPING DUE TO THE STRONG E/SE LLJ MAY LIMIT THE MODERATE
RAINFALL EXPANSION INTO THE UPPER HUDSON REGION...AND WEST OF THE
SRN GREENS. THE HIGHER TOTALS OF A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS THROUGH. SOME
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED AT KDDH AND KAQW.  THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...SOME WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE RAIN INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING
OCCURS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THE THREAT OF STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S TO ABOUT 50F OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE
UPPER HUDSON REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION AND PARTS OF SRN VT WHERE
SOME OF THE MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY LOW VFR/MVFR FOR THE E-CNTRL NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REDUCTIONS TO
IFR LEVELS AT KPOU IN TERMS OF VSBYS. THERE TREND WILL BE FOR THE
CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS FOR KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL
WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH. THE BEST CHC OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BTWN 21Z-00Z WILL BE AT KPOU/KPSF.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN WILL LIKELY OCCUR BTWN 21Z-01Z WITH JUST
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT AROUND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD AN
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WITH SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER BTWN 01Z-04Z.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE QUESTION WILL BE
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH...AND IT TRANSITIONS TO PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS/RAIN AND DRIZZLE
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WERE FORECASTED PRIMARILY BTWN 06Z-14Z/TUE.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS BTWN 14Z-
16Z/TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

LLWS GROUPS WERE KEPT IN UNTIL 21Z/MON AT KGFL/KPOU. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL JET IS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE 2FT AGL
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE 30-35 KTS A FEW MORE HOURS.

THE E/SE WINDS CONTINUE AT 8-15 KFT AT KALB/KPSF...WITH SOME GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NE TO
SE AT 5-10 KTS AFTER 21Z...AND THE BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM
THE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 201805
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
205 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...THE SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF THE WARM OVER THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME RETOOLING OF THE POPS...AND HOURLY TEMPS
BASED ON THE RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS TRENDS. THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE PCPN TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN VT CORRIDOR.
SOME DOWNSLOPING DUE TO THE STRONG E/SE LLJ MAY LIMIT THE MODERATE
RAINFALL EXPANSION INTO THE UPPER HUDSON REGION...AND WEST OF THE
SRN GREENS. THE HIGHER TOTALS OF A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS THROUGH. SOME
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED AT KDDH AND KAQW.  THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...SOME WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE RAIN INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING
OCCURS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THE THREAT OF STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S TO ABOUT 50F OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE
UPPER HUDSON REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION AND PARTS OF SRN VT WHERE
SOME OF THE MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY LOW VFR/MVFR FOR THE E-CNTRL NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REDUCTIONS TO
IFR LEVELS AT KPOU IN TERMS OF VSBYS. THERE TREND WILL BE FOR THE
CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS FOR KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL
WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH. THE BEST CHC OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BTWN 21Z-00Z WILL BE AT KPOU/KPSF.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN WILL LIKELY OCCUR BTWN 21Z-01Z WITH JUST
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT AROUND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD AN
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WITH SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER BTWN 01Z-04Z.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE QUESTION WILL BE
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH...AND IT TRANSITIONS TO PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS/RAIN AND DRIZZLE
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WERE FORECASTED PRIMARILY BTWN 06Z-14Z/TUE.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS BTWN 14Z-
16Z/TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

LLWS GROUPS WERE KEPT IN UNTIL 21Z/MON AT KGFL/KPOU. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL JET IS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE 2FT AGL
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE 30-35 KTS A FEW MORE HOURS.

THE E/SE WINDS CONTINUE AT 8-15 KFT AT KALB/KPSF...WITH SOME GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NE TO
SE AT 5-10 KTS AFTER 21Z...AND THE BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM
THE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 201805
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
205 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...THE SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF THE WARM OVER THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME RETOOLING OF THE POPS...AND HOURLY TEMPS
BASED ON THE RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS TRENDS. THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE PCPN TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN VT CORRIDOR.
SOME DOWNSLOPING DUE TO THE STRONG E/SE LLJ MAY LIMIT THE MODERATE
RAINFALL EXPANSION INTO THE UPPER HUDSON REGION...AND WEST OF THE
SRN GREENS. THE HIGHER TOTALS OF A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS THROUGH. SOME
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED AT KDDH AND KAQW.  THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...SOME WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE RAIN INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING
OCCURS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THE THREAT OF STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S TO ABOUT 50F OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE
UPPER HUDSON REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION AND PARTS OF SRN VT WHERE
SOME OF THE MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY LOW VFR/MVFR FOR THE E-CNTRL NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REDUCTIONS TO
IFR LEVELS AT KPOU IN TERMS OF VSBYS. THERE TREND WILL BE FOR THE
CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS FOR KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL
WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH. THE BEST CHC OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BTWN 21Z-00Z WILL BE AT KPOU/KPSF.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN WILL LIKELY OCCUR BTWN 21Z-01Z WITH JUST
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT AROUND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD AN
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WITH SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER BTWN 01Z-04Z.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE QUESTION WILL BE
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH...AND IT TRANSITIONS TO PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS/RAIN AND DRIZZLE
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WERE FORECASTED PRIMARILY BTWN 06Z-14Z/TUE.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS BTWN 14Z-
16Z/TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

LLWS GROUPS WERE KEPT IN UNTIL 21Z/MON AT KGFL/KPOU. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL JET IS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE 2FT AGL
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE 30-35 KTS A FEW MORE HOURS.

THE E/SE WINDS CONTINUE AT 8-15 KFT AT KALB/KPSF...WITH SOME GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NE TO
SE AT 5-10 KTS AFTER 21Z...AND THE BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM
THE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
149 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE.

MAIN UPDATE FOR THE 1030 AM FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO ADD IN MENTION
OF SLEET AND SNOW. SEEMS THAT WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING
DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH...THE SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN DRY SLOT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY, THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DO APPROACH 1"
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN BEING
MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COINCIDING WITH A
STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DACKS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP
GUIDANCE SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
CONTROLLING SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC
UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY
BECOMING QUASI- STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND.
NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
AND SEASONABLY LOW THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS
SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40 POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND (20-30 POPS). THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE
GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C. GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500`
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT
SUMMIT LOCATIONS. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL
TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MOST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 KTS AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT AND
SLK. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS PRODUCING PERIODS
OF MVFR THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS
WILL SEE ALL SITES IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z. TONIGHT, AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, PRODUCING AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH INTERVALS OF IFR
POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY. WINDS PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE MID-LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 201749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
149 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE.

MAIN UPDATE FOR THE 1030 AM FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO ADD IN MENTION
OF SLEET AND SNOW. SEEMS THAT WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING
DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH...THE SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN DRY SLOT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY, THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DO APPROACH 1"
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN BEING
MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COINCIDING WITH A
STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DACKS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP
GUIDANCE SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
CONTROLLING SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC
UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY
BECOMING QUASI- STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND.
NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
AND SEASONABLY LOW THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS
SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40 POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND (20-30 POPS). THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE
GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C. GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500`
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT
SUMMIT LOCATIONS. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL
TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MOST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 KTS AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT AND
SLK. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS PRODUCING PERIODS
OF MVFR THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS
WILL SEE ALL SITES IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z. TONIGHT, AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, PRODUCING AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH INTERVALS OF IFR
POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY. WINDS PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE MID-LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 201725
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE.

MAIN UPDATE FOR THE 1030 AM FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO ADD IN MENTION
OF SLEET AND SNOW. SEEMS THAT WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING
DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH...THE SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN DRY SLOT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY, THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DO APPROACH 1"
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN BEING
MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COINCIDING WITH A
STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DACKS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP
GUIDANCE SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
CONTROLLING SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC
UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY
BECOMING QUASI- STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND.
NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
AND SEASONABLY LOW THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS
SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40 POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND (20-30 POPS). THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE
GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C. GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500`
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT
SUMMIT LOCATIONS. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL
TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
(OVC150-200) AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 11Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING AT WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND LIFTING NEWD FROM
CENTRAL NY...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPING DURING
THE 12-15Z PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE 14-18Z. WARM FRONTAL RAINBAND LIFTS THROUGH
RATHER RAPIDLY...WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HRS. GENERALLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO 3-5KFT.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LLWS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000`...SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTER UP LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ANTICIPATE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AS SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 05-12Z TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH INTERVALS
OF IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 201725
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE.

MAIN UPDATE FOR THE 1030 AM FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO ADD IN MENTION
OF SLEET AND SNOW. SEEMS THAT WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING
DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH...THE SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN DRY SLOT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY, THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DO APPROACH 1"
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN BEING
MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COINCIDING WITH A
STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DACKS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP
GUIDANCE SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
CONTROLLING SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC
UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY
BECOMING QUASI- STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND.
NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
AND SEASONABLY LOW THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS
SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40 POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND (20-30 POPS). THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE
GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C. GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500`
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT
SUMMIT LOCATIONS. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL
TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
(OVC150-200) AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 11Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING AT WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND LIFTING NEWD FROM
CENTRAL NY...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPING DURING
THE 12-15Z PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE 14-18Z. WARM FRONTAL RAINBAND LIFTS THROUGH
RATHER RAPIDLY...WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HRS. GENERALLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO 3-5KFT.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LLWS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000`...SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTER UP LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ANTICIPATE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AS SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 05-12Z TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH INTERVALS
OF IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201725
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE.

MAIN UPDATE FOR THE 1030 AM FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO ADD IN MENTION
OF SLEET AND SNOW. SEEMS THAT WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING
DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH...THE SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN DRY SLOT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY, THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DO APPROACH 1"
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN BEING
MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COINCIDING WITH A
STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DACKS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP
GUIDANCE SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
CONTROLLING SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC
UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY
BECOMING QUASI- STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND.
NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
AND SEASONABLY LOW THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS
SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40 POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND (20-30 POPS). THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE
GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C. GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500`
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT
SUMMIT LOCATIONS. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL
TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
(OVC150-200) AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 11Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING AT WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND LIFTING NEWD FROM
CENTRAL NY...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPING DURING
THE 12-15Z PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE 14-18Z. WARM FRONTAL RAINBAND LIFTS THROUGH
RATHER RAPIDLY...WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HRS. GENERALLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO 3-5KFT.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LLWS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000`...SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTER UP LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ANTICIPATE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AS SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 05-12Z TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH INTERVALS
OF IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201725
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE.

MAIN UPDATE FOR THE 1030 AM FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO ADD IN MENTION
OF SLEET AND SNOW. SEEMS THAT WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING
DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH...THE SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN DRY SLOT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY, THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DO APPROACH 1"
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN BEING
MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COINCIDING WITH A
STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DACKS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP
GUIDANCE SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
CONTROLLING SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC
UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY
BECOMING QUASI- STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND.
NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
AND SEASONABLY LOW THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS
SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40 POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND (20-30 POPS). THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE
GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C. GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500`
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT
SUMMIT LOCATIONS. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL
TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
(OVC150-200) AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 11Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING AT WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND LIFTING NEWD FROM
CENTRAL NY...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPING DURING
THE 12-15Z PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE 14-18Z. WARM FRONTAL RAINBAND LIFTS THROUGH
RATHER RAPIDLY...WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HRS. GENERALLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO 3-5KFT.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LLWS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000`...SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTER UP LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ANTICIPATE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AS SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 05-12Z TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH INTERVALS
OF IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201725
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE.

MAIN UPDATE FOR THE 1030 AM FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO ADD IN MENTION
OF SLEET AND SNOW. SEEMS THAT WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING
DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH...THE SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN DRY SLOT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY, THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DO APPROACH 1"
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN BEING
MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COINCIDING WITH A
STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DACKS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP
GUIDANCE SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
CONTROLLING SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC
UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY
BECOMING QUASI- STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND.
NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
AND SEASONABLY LOW THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS
SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40 POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND (20-30 POPS). THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE
GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C. GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500`
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT
SUMMIT LOCATIONS. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL
TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
(OVC150-200) AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 11Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING AT WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND LIFTING NEWD FROM
CENTRAL NY...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPING DURING
THE 12-15Z PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE 14-18Z. WARM FRONTAL RAINBAND LIFTS THROUGH
RATHER RAPIDLY...WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HRS. GENERALLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO 3-5KFT.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LLWS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000`...SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTER UP LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ANTICIPATE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AS SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 05-12Z TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH INTERVALS
OF IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201725
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE.

MAIN UPDATE FOR THE 1030 AM FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO ADD IN MENTION
OF SLEET AND SNOW. SEEMS THAT WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING
DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH...THE SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN DRY SLOT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY, THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DO APPROACH 1"
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN BEING
MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COINCIDING WITH A
STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DACKS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP
GUIDANCE SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
CONTROLLING SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC
UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY
BECOMING QUASI- STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND.
NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
AND SEASONABLY LOW THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS
SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40 POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND (20-30 POPS). THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE
GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C. GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500`
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT
SUMMIT LOCATIONS. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL
TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
(OVC150-200) AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 11Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING AT WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND LIFTING NEWD FROM
CENTRAL NY...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPING DURING
THE 12-15Z PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE 14-18Z. WARM FRONTAL RAINBAND LIFTS THROUGH
RATHER RAPIDLY...WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HRS. GENERALLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO 3-5KFT.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LLWS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000`...SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTER UP LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ANTICIPATE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AS SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 05-12Z TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH INTERVALS
OF IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201725
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE.

MAIN UPDATE FOR THE 1030 AM FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO ADD IN MENTION
OF SLEET AND SNOW. SEEMS THAT WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING
DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH...THE SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN DRY SLOT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY, THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DO APPROACH 1"
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN BEING
MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COINCIDING WITH A
STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DACKS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP
GUIDANCE SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
CONTROLLING SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC
UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY
BECOMING QUASI- STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND.
NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
AND SEASONABLY LOW THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS
SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40 POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND (20-30 POPS). THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE
GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C. GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500`
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT
SUMMIT LOCATIONS. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL
TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
(OVC150-200) AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 11Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING AT WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND LIFTING NEWD FROM
CENTRAL NY...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPING DURING
THE 12-15Z PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE 14-18Z. WARM FRONTAL RAINBAND LIFTS THROUGH
RATHER RAPIDLY...WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HRS. GENERALLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO 3-5KFT.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LLWS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000`...SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTER UP LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ANTICIPATE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AS SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 05-12Z TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH INTERVALS
OF IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201725
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE.

MAIN UPDATE FOR THE 1030 AM FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO ADD IN MENTION
OF SLEET AND SNOW. SEEMS THAT WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING
DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH...THE SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN DRY SLOT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY, THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DO APPROACH 1"
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN BEING
MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COINCIDING WITH A
STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DACKS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP
GUIDANCE SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
CONTROLLING SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC
UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY
BECOMING QUASI- STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND.
NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
AND SEASONABLY LOW THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS
SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40 POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND (20-30 POPS). THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE
GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C. GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500`
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT
SUMMIT LOCATIONS. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL
TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
(OVC150-200) AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 11Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING AT WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND LIFTING NEWD FROM
CENTRAL NY...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPING DURING
THE 12-15Z PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE 14-18Z. WARM FRONTAL RAINBAND LIFTS THROUGH
RATHER RAPIDLY...WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HRS. GENERALLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO 3-5KFT.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LLWS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000`...SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTER UP LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ANTICIPATE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AS SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 05-12Z TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH INTERVALS
OF IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201725
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE.

MAIN UPDATE FOR THE 1030 AM FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO ADD IN MENTION
OF SLEET AND SNOW. SEEMS THAT WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING
DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH...THE SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN DRY SLOT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY, THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DO APPROACH 1"
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN BEING
MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COINCIDING WITH A
STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DACKS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP
GUIDANCE SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
CONTROLLING SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC
UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY
BECOMING QUASI- STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND.
NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
AND SEASONABLY LOW THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS
SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40 POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND (20-30 POPS). THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE
GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C. GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500`
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT
SUMMIT LOCATIONS. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL
TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
(OVC150-200) AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 11Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING AT WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND LIFTING NEWD FROM
CENTRAL NY...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPING DURING
THE 12-15Z PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE 14-18Z. WARM FRONTAL RAINBAND LIFTS THROUGH
RATHER RAPIDLY...WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HRS. GENERALLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO 3-5KFT.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LLWS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000`...SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTER UP LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ANTICIPATE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AS SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 05-12Z TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH INTERVALS
OF IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201725
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE.

MAIN UPDATE FOR THE 1030 AM FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO ADD IN MENTION
OF SLEET AND SNOW. SEEMS THAT WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING
DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH...THE SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN DRY SLOT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY, THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DO APPROACH 1"
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN BEING
MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COINCIDING WITH A
STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DACKS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP
GUIDANCE SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
CONTROLLING SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC
UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY
BECOMING QUASI- STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND.
NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
AND SEASONABLY LOW THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS
SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40 POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND (20-30 POPS). THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE
GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C. GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500`
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT
SUMMIT LOCATIONS. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL
TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
(OVC150-200) AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 11Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING AT WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND LIFTING NEWD FROM
CENTRAL NY...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPING DURING
THE 12-15Z PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE 14-18Z. WARM FRONTAL RAINBAND LIFTS THROUGH
RATHER RAPIDLY...WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HRS. GENERALLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO 3-5KFT.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LLWS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000`...SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTER UP LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ANTICIPATE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AS SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 05-12Z TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH INTERVALS
OF IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KALY 201632
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
     AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...THE SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF THE WARM OVER THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME RETOOLING OF THE POPS...AND HOURLY TEMPS
BASED ON THE RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS TRENDS. THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE PCPN TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN VT CORRIDOR.
SOME DOWNSLOPING DUE TO THE STRONG E/SE LLJ MAY LIMIT THE MODERATE
RAINFALL EXPANSION INTO THE UPPER HUDSON REGION...AND WEST OF THE
SRN GREENS. THE HIGHER TOTALS OF A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS THROUGH. SOME
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED AT KDDH AND KAQW.  THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...SOME WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE RAIN INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING
OCCURS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THE THREAT OF STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S TO ABOUT 50F OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE
UPPER HUDSON REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION AND PARTS OF SRN VT WHERE
SOME OF THE MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...AS RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL
TAKING SOME TIME TO MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 14Z-16Z THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 14Z-16Z. RAIN INTENSITY
SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z TUESDAY. AFTER
00Z... CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARD IFR BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO JUST INDICATE SCATTERED LAYER BELOW 1000 FEET WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET BETWEEN 00Z-12Z. VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE MVFR WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ IS EXPECTED AT KPSF/KPOU AND KGFL
THROUGH THE DAY AND WAS BEGUN AT 12Z...AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST JET
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGER AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT KALB...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LLWS FOR
NOW. LLWS SHOULD END BY 00Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT EXITS THE
REGION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-16 KT BY THE LATE
MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25 KT... ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KT
OR LESS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS LATER
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 201632
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
     AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...THE SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF THE WARM OVER THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME RETOOLING OF THE POPS...AND HOURLY TEMPS
BASED ON THE RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS TRENDS. THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE PCPN TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN VT CORRIDOR.
SOME DOWNSLOPING DUE TO THE STRONG E/SE LLJ MAY LIMIT THE MODERATE
RAINFALL EXPANSION INTO THE UPPER HUDSON REGION...AND WEST OF THE
SRN GREENS. THE HIGHER TOTALS OF A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS THROUGH. SOME
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED AT KDDH AND KAQW.  THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...SOME WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE RAIN INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING
OCCURS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THE THREAT OF STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S TO ABOUT 50F OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE
UPPER HUDSON REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION AND PARTS OF SRN VT WHERE
SOME OF THE MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...AS RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL
TAKING SOME TIME TO MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 14Z-16Z THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 14Z-16Z. RAIN INTENSITY
SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z TUESDAY. AFTER
00Z... CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARD IFR BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO JUST INDICATE SCATTERED LAYER BELOW 1000 FEET WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET BETWEEN 00Z-12Z. VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE MVFR WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ IS EXPECTED AT KPSF/KPOU AND KGFL
THROUGH THE DAY AND WAS BEGUN AT 12Z...AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST JET
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGER AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT KALB...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LLWS FOR
NOW. LLWS SHOULD END BY 00Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT EXITS THE
REGION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-16 KT BY THE LATE
MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25 KT... ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KT
OR LESS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS LATER
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 201632
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
     AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...THE SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF THE WARM OVER THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME RETOOLING OF THE POPS...AND HOURLY TEMPS
BASED ON THE RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS TRENDS. THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE PCPN TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN VT CORRIDOR.
SOME DOWNSLOPING DUE TO THE STRONG E/SE LLJ MAY LIMIT THE MODERATE
RAINFALL EXPANSION INTO THE UPPER HUDSON REGION...AND WEST OF THE
SRN GREENS. THE HIGHER TOTALS OF A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS THROUGH. SOME
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED AT KDDH AND KAQW.  THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...SOME WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE RAIN INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING
OCCURS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THE THREAT OF STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S TO ABOUT 50F OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE
UPPER HUDSON REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION AND PARTS OF SRN VT WHERE
SOME OF THE MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...AS RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL
TAKING SOME TIME TO MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 14Z-16Z THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 14Z-16Z. RAIN INTENSITY
SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z TUESDAY. AFTER
00Z... CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARD IFR BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO JUST INDICATE SCATTERED LAYER BELOW 1000 FEET WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET BETWEEN 00Z-12Z. VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE MVFR WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ IS EXPECTED AT KPSF/KPOU AND KGFL
THROUGH THE DAY AND WAS BEGUN AT 12Z...AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST JET
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGER AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT KALB...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LLWS FOR
NOW. LLWS SHOULD END BY 00Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT EXITS THE
REGION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-16 KT BY THE LATE
MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25 KT... ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KT
OR LESS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS LATER
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 201632
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
     AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...THE SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF THE WARM OVER THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME RETOOLING OF THE POPS...AND HOURLY TEMPS
BASED ON THE RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS TRENDS. THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE PCPN TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN VT CORRIDOR.
SOME DOWNSLOPING DUE TO THE STRONG E/SE LLJ MAY LIMIT THE MODERATE
RAINFALL EXPANSION INTO THE UPPER HUDSON REGION...AND WEST OF THE
SRN GREENS. THE HIGHER TOTALS OF A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS THROUGH. SOME
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED AT KDDH AND KAQW.  THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...SOME WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE RAIN INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING
OCCURS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THE THREAT OF STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S TO ABOUT 50F OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE
UPPER HUDSON REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION AND PARTS OF SRN VT WHERE
SOME OF THE MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...AS RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL
TAKING SOME TIME TO MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 14Z-16Z THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 14Z-16Z. RAIN INTENSITY
SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z TUESDAY. AFTER
00Z... CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARD IFR BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO JUST INDICATE SCATTERED LAYER BELOW 1000 FEET WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET BETWEEN 00Z-12Z. VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE MVFR WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ IS EXPECTED AT KPSF/KPOU AND KGFL
THROUGH THE DAY AND WAS BEGUN AT 12Z...AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST JET
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGER AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT KALB...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LLWS FOR
NOW. LLWS SHOULD END BY 00Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT EXITS THE
REGION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-16 KT BY THE LATE
MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25 KT... ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KT
OR LESS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS LATER
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201436
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1036 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1026 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN UPDATE FOR THE 1030 AM FORECAST
PACKAGE IS TO ADD IN MENTION OF SLEET AND SNOW. SEEMS THAT WHERE
THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH...THE SNOW IS MAKING
IT TO THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE. A QUICK INCH OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN DRY SLOT AS
PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY, THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DO APPROACH 1"
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN BEING
MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COINCIDING WITH A
STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DACKS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP GUIDANCE
SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. CONTROLLING
SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW
OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY BECOMING QUASI-
STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND. NORTH COUNTRY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND SEASONABLY LOW
THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S
THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH
DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40
POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND (20-30 POPS).
THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C.
GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500` THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT SUMMIT LOCATIONS.
PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
(OVC150-200) AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 11Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING AT WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND LIFTING NEWD FROM
CENTRAL NY...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPING DURING
THE 12-15Z PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE 14-18Z. WARM FRONTAL RAINBAND LIFTS THROUGH
RATHER RAPIDLY...WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HRS. GENERALLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO 3-5KFT.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LLWS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000`...SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTER UP LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ANTICIPATE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AS SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 05-12Z TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201436
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1036 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1026 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN UPDATE FOR THE 1030 AM FORECAST
PACKAGE IS TO ADD IN MENTION OF SLEET AND SNOW. SEEMS THAT WHERE
THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH...THE SNOW IS MAKING
IT TO THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE. A QUICK INCH OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN DRY SLOT AS
PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY, THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DO APPROACH 1"
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN BEING
MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COINCIDING WITH A
STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DACKS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP GUIDANCE
SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. CONTROLLING
SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW
OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY BECOMING QUASI-
STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND. NORTH COUNTRY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND SEASONABLY LOW
THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S
THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH
DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40
POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND (20-30 POPS).
THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C.
GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500` THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT SUMMIT LOCATIONS.
PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
(OVC150-200) AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 11Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING AT WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND LIFTING NEWD FROM
CENTRAL NY...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPING DURING
THE 12-15Z PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE 14-18Z. WARM FRONTAL RAINBAND LIFTS THROUGH
RATHER RAPIDLY...WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HRS. GENERALLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO 3-5KFT.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LLWS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000`...SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTER UP LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ANTICIPATE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AS SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 05-12Z TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 201436
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1036 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1026 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN UPDATE FOR THE 1030 AM FORECAST
PACKAGE IS TO ADD IN MENTION OF SLEET AND SNOW. SEEMS THAT WHERE
THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH...THE SNOW IS MAKING
IT TO THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE. A QUICK INCH OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN DRY SLOT AS
PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY, THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DO APPROACH 1"
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN BEING
MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COINCIDING WITH A
STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DACKS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP GUIDANCE
SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. CONTROLLING
SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW
OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY BECOMING QUASI-
STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND. NORTH COUNTRY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND SEASONABLY LOW
THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S
THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH
DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40
POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND (20-30 POPS).
THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C.
GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500` THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT SUMMIT LOCATIONS.
PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
(OVC150-200) AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 11Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING AT WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND LIFTING NEWD FROM
CENTRAL NY...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPING DURING
THE 12-15Z PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE 14-18Z. WARM FRONTAL RAINBAND LIFTS THROUGH
RATHER RAPIDLY...WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HRS. GENERALLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO 3-5KFT.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LLWS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000`...SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTER UP LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ANTICIPATE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AS SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 05-12Z TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KALY 201431
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1031 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...THE SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AHEAD
OF THE WARM OVER THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MOVING INTO THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...SE CATSKILLS.. SRN TACONICS...SRN BERKS...AND
NW CT. SOME RAINFALL RATES ACROSS NRN NJ REACHED A QUARTER OF AN
INCH AN HOUR EARLIER THIS MORNING. NORTH OF THIS AREA...SCT
SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN PERSIST. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME RETOOLING OF THE POPS...AND
HOURLY TEMPS BASED ON THE RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS TRENDS. THERE IS
GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE PCPN TO EXPAND NORTHWARD
INTO THE CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN VT
CORRIDOR. SOME DOWNSLOPING DUE TO THE STRONG E/SE LLJ MAY LIMIT
THE MODERATE RAINFALL EXPANSION INTO THE UPPER HUDSON REGION...AND
WEST OF THE SRN GREENS. THE HIGHER TOTALS OF A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS
OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.


THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS THROUGH. SOME
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED AT KDDH AND KAQW.  THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...SOME WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE RAIN INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING
OCCURS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THE THREAT OF STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S TO ABOUT 50F OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE
UPPER HUDSON REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION AND PARTS OF SRN VT WHERE
SOME OF THE MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...AS RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL
TAKING SOME TIME TO MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 14Z-16Z THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 14Z-16Z. RAIN INTENSITY
SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z TUESDAY. AFTER
00Z... CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARD IFR BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO JUST INDICATE SCATTERED LAYER BELOW 1000 FEET WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET BETWEEN 00Z-12Z. VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE MVFR WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ IS EXPECTED AT KPSF/KPOU AND KGFL
THROUGH THE DAY AND WAS BEGUN AT 12Z...AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST JET
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGER AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT KALB...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LLWS FOR
NOW. LLWS SHOULD END BY 00Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT EXITS THE
REGION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-16 KT BY THE LATE
MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25 KT... ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KT
OR LESS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS LATER
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA
DAM IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK
AT HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 201431
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1031 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...THE SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AHEAD
OF THE WARM OVER THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MOVING INTO THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...SE CATSKILLS.. SRN TACONICS...SRN BERKS...AND
NW CT. SOME RAINFALL RATES ACROSS NRN NJ REACHED A QUARTER OF AN
INCH AN HOUR EARLIER THIS MORNING. NORTH OF THIS AREA...SCT
SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN PERSIST. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME RETOOLING OF THE POPS...AND
HOURLY TEMPS BASED ON THE RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS TRENDS. THERE IS
GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE PCPN TO EXPAND NORTHWARD
INTO THE CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN VT
CORRIDOR. SOME DOWNSLOPING DUE TO THE STRONG E/SE LLJ MAY LIMIT
THE MODERATE RAINFALL EXPANSION INTO THE UPPER HUDSON REGION...AND
WEST OF THE SRN GREENS. THE HIGHER TOTALS OF A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS
OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.


THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS THROUGH. SOME
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED AT KDDH AND KAQW.  THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...SOME WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE RAIN INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING
OCCURS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THE THREAT OF STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S TO ABOUT 50F OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE
UPPER HUDSON REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION AND PARTS OF SRN VT WHERE
SOME OF THE MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...AS RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL
TAKING SOME TIME TO MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 14Z-16Z THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 14Z-16Z. RAIN INTENSITY
SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z TUESDAY. AFTER
00Z... CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARD IFR BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO JUST INDICATE SCATTERED LAYER BELOW 1000 FEET WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET BETWEEN 00Z-12Z. VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE MVFR WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ IS EXPECTED AT KPSF/KPOU AND KGFL
THROUGH THE DAY AND WAS BEGUN AT 12Z...AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST JET
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGER AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT KALB...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LLWS FOR
NOW. LLWS SHOULD END BY 00Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT EXITS THE
REGION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-16 KT BY THE LATE
MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25 KT... ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KT
OR LESS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS LATER
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA
DAM IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK
AT HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 201157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
757 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM EDT...ONE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS MOVING
QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SOME WET SNOW COULD BE OCCURRING
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT WITHIN THIS BAND. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER AN INCH WHERE SNOWFALL OCCURS INITIALLY.

ANOTHER BAND OF MODERATE RAIN WAS OVER EASTERN PA/WESTERN NJ...AND
TRANSLATING N/NE. THIS SHOULD OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN AREAS OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND FURTHER N AND E BETWEEN 10 AM AND NOON.

OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD OCCUR
MAINLY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BEST SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING ACROSS. THE
RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME...ESP ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT...THE SE CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS
THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN
INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING OCCURS...DIMINISHING THE
THREAT OF STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS MAY HOLD STEADY...OR EVEN FALL A BIT THIS MORNING AS THE
RAIN OCCURS...BEFORE SLOWLY RISING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID
50S FOR VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND 40S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THE MILDEST TEMPS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN TEMPS MAY REACH THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...AS RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL
TAKING SOME TIME TO MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 14Z-16Z THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 14Z-16Z. RAIN INTENSITY
SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z TUESDAY. AFTER
00Z... CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARD IFR BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO JUST INDICATE SCATTERED LAYER BELOW 1000 FEET WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET BETWEEN 00Z-12Z. VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE MVFR WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ IS EXPECTED AT KPSF/KPOU AND KGFL
THROUGH THE DAY AND WAS BEGUN AT 12Z...AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST JET
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGER AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT KALB...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LLWS FOR
NOW. LLWS SHOULD END BY 00Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT EXITS THE
REGION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-16 KT BY THE LATE
MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25 KT... ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KT
OR LESS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS LATER
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA
DAM IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK
AT HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 201157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
757 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM EDT...ONE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS MOVING
QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SOME WET SNOW COULD BE OCCURRING
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT WITHIN THIS BAND. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER AN INCH WHERE SNOWFALL OCCURS INITIALLY.

ANOTHER BAND OF MODERATE RAIN WAS OVER EASTERN PA/WESTERN NJ...AND
TRANSLATING N/NE. THIS SHOULD OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN AREAS OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND FURTHER N AND E BETWEEN 10 AM AND NOON.

OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD OCCUR
MAINLY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BEST SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING ACROSS. THE
RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME...ESP ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT...THE SE CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS
THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN
INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING OCCURS...DIMINISHING THE
THREAT OF STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS MAY HOLD STEADY...OR EVEN FALL A BIT THIS MORNING AS THE
RAIN OCCURS...BEFORE SLOWLY RISING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID
50S FOR VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND 40S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THE MILDEST TEMPS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN TEMPS MAY REACH THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...AS RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL
TAKING SOME TIME TO MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 14Z-16Z THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 14Z-16Z. RAIN INTENSITY
SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z TUESDAY. AFTER
00Z... CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARD IFR BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO JUST INDICATE SCATTERED LAYER BELOW 1000 FEET WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET BETWEEN 00Z-12Z. VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE MVFR WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ IS EXPECTED AT KPSF/KPOU AND KGFL
THROUGH THE DAY AND WAS BEGUN AT 12Z...AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST JET
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGER AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT KALB...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LLWS FOR
NOW. LLWS SHOULD END BY 00Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT EXITS THE
REGION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-16 KT BY THE LATE
MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25 KT... ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KT
OR LESS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS LATER
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA
DAM IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK
AT HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 201157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
757 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM EDT...ONE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS MOVING
QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SOME WET SNOW COULD BE OCCURRING
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT WITHIN THIS BAND. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER AN INCH WHERE SNOWFALL OCCURS INITIALLY.

ANOTHER BAND OF MODERATE RAIN WAS OVER EASTERN PA/WESTERN NJ...AND
TRANSLATING N/NE. THIS SHOULD OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN AREAS OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND FURTHER N AND E BETWEEN 10 AM AND NOON.

OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD OCCUR
MAINLY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BEST SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING ACROSS. THE
RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME...ESP ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT...THE SE CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS
THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN
INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING OCCURS...DIMINISHING THE
THREAT OF STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS MAY HOLD STEADY...OR EVEN FALL A BIT THIS MORNING AS THE
RAIN OCCURS...BEFORE SLOWLY RISING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID
50S FOR VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND 40S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THE MILDEST TEMPS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN TEMPS MAY REACH THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...AS RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL
TAKING SOME TIME TO MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 14Z-16Z THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 14Z-16Z. RAIN INTENSITY
SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z TUESDAY. AFTER
00Z... CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARD IFR BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO JUST INDICATE SCATTERED LAYER BELOW 1000 FEET WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET BETWEEN 00Z-12Z. VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE MVFR WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ IS EXPECTED AT KPSF/KPOU AND KGFL
THROUGH THE DAY AND WAS BEGUN AT 12Z...AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST JET
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGER AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT KALB...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LLWS FOR
NOW. LLWS SHOULD END BY 00Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT EXITS THE
REGION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-16 KT BY THE LATE
MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25 KT... ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KT
OR LESS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS LATER
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA
DAM IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK
AT HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 201157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
757 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM EDT...ONE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS MOVING
QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SOME WET SNOW COULD BE OCCURRING
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT WITHIN THIS BAND. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER AN INCH WHERE SNOWFALL OCCURS INITIALLY.

ANOTHER BAND OF MODERATE RAIN WAS OVER EASTERN PA/WESTERN NJ...AND
TRANSLATING N/NE. THIS SHOULD OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN AREAS OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND FURTHER N AND E BETWEEN 10 AM AND NOON.

OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD OCCUR
MAINLY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BEST SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING ACROSS. THE
RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME...ESP ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT...THE SE CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS
THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN
INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING OCCURS...DIMINISHING THE
THREAT OF STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS MAY HOLD STEADY...OR EVEN FALL A BIT THIS MORNING AS THE
RAIN OCCURS...BEFORE SLOWLY RISING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID
50S FOR VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND 40S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THE MILDEST TEMPS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN TEMPS MAY REACH THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...AS RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL
TAKING SOME TIME TO MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 14Z-16Z THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 14Z-16Z. RAIN INTENSITY
SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z TUESDAY. AFTER
00Z... CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARD IFR BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO JUST INDICATE SCATTERED LAYER BELOW 1000 FEET WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET BETWEEN 00Z-12Z. VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE MVFR WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ IS EXPECTED AT KPSF/KPOU AND KGFL
THROUGH THE DAY AND WAS BEGUN AT 12Z...AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST JET
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGER AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT KALB...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LLWS FOR
NOW. LLWS SHOULD END BY 00Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT EXITS THE
REGION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-16 KT BY THE LATE
MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25 KT... ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KT
OR LESS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS LATER
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA
DAM IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK
AT HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 201157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
757 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM EDT...ONE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS MOVING
QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SOME WET SNOW COULD BE OCCURRING
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT WITHIN THIS BAND. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER AN INCH WHERE SNOWFALL OCCURS INITIALLY.

ANOTHER BAND OF MODERATE RAIN WAS OVER EASTERN PA/WESTERN NJ...AND
TRANSLATING N/NE. THIS SHOULD OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN AREAS OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND FURTHER N AND E BETWEEN 10 AM AND NOON.

OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD OCCUR
MAINLY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BEST SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING ACROSS. THE
RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME...ESP ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT...THE SE CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS
THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN
INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING OCCURS...DIMINISHING THE
THREAT OF STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS MAY HOLD STEADY...OR EVEN FALL A BIT THIS MORNING AS THE
RAIN OCCURS...BEFORE SLOWLY RISING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID
50S FOR VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND 40S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THE MILDEST TEMPS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN TEMPS MAY REACH THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...AS RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL
TAKING SOME TIME TO MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 14Z-16Z THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 14Z-16Z. RAIN INTENSITY
SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z TUESDAY. AFTER
00Z... CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARD IFR BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO JUST INDICATE SCATTERED LAYER BELOW 1000 FEET WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET BETWEEN 00Z-12Z. VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE MVFR WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ IS EXPECTED AT KPSF/KPOU AND KGFL
THROUGH THE DAY AND WAS BEGUN AT 12Z...AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST JET
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGER AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT KALB...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LLWS FOR
NOW. LLWS SHOULD END BY 00Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT EXITS THE
REGION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-16 KT BY THE LATE
MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25 KT... ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KT
OR LESS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS LATER
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA
DAM IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK
AT HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 201157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
757 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM EDT...ONE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS MOVING
QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SOME WET SNOW COULD BE OCCURRING
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT WITHIN THIS BAND. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER AN INCH WHERE SNOWFALL OCCURS INITIALLY.

ANOTHER BAND OF MODERATE RAIN WAS OVER EASTERN PA/WESTERN NJ...AND
TRANSLATING N/NE. THIS SHOULD OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN AREAS OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND FURTHER N AND E BETWEEN 10 AM AND NOON.

OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD OCCUR
MAINLY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BEST SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING ACROSS. THE
RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME...ESP ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT...THE SE CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS
THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN
INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING OCCURS...DIMINISHING THE
THREAT OF STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS MAY HOLD STEADY...OR EVEN FALL A BIT THIS MORNING AS THE
RAIN OCCURS...BEFORE SLOWLY RISING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID
50S FOR VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND 40S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THE MILDEST TEMPS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN TEMPS MAY REACH THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...AS RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL
TAKING SOME TIME TO MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 14Z-16Z THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 14Z-16Z. RAIN INTENSITY
SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z TUESDAY. AFTER
00Z... CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARD IFR BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO JUST INDICATE SCATTERED LAYER BELOW 1000 FEET WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET BETWEEN 00Z-12Z. VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE MVFR WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ IS EXPECTED AT KPSF/KPOU AND KGFL
THROUGH THE DAY AND WAS BEGUN AT 12Z...AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST JET
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGER AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT KALB...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LLWS FOR
NOW. LLWS SHOULD END BY 00Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT EXITS THE
REGION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-16 KT BY THE LATE
MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25 KT... ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KT
OR LESS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS LATER
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA
DAM IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK
AT HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 723 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, AS THEY`VE RISEN JUST AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING PRECIP, AND ARE FALLING WHERE PRECIP HAS BEGUN. OTHERWISE,
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD
TODAY, THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR,
BUT DO APPROACH 1" ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL
SUPPORT RAIN BEING MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
SHIFTS INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
COINCIDING WITH A STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX
OF DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO
PROMOTE MIXING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST DACKS AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM
WRF CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50
MPH ACROSS THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP GUIDANCE
SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. CONTROLLING
SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW
OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY BECOMING QUASI-
STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND. NORTH COUNTRY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND SEASONABLY LOW
THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S
THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH
DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40
POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND (20-30 POPS).
THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C.
GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500` THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT SUMMIT LOCATIONS.
PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
(OVC150-200) AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 11Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING AT WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND LIFTING NEWD FROM
CENTRAL NY...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPING DURING
THE 12-15Z PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE 14-18Z. WARM FRONTAL RAINBAND LIFTS THROUGH
RATHER RAPIDLY...WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HRS. GENERALLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO 3-5KFT.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LLWS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000`...SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTER UP LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ANTICIPATE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AS SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 05-12Z TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 201125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 723 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, AS THEY`VE RISEN JUST AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING PRECIP, AND ARE FALLING WHERE PRECIP HAS BEGUN. OTHERWISE,
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD
TODAY, THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR,
BUT DO APPROACH 1" ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL
SUPPORT RAIN BEING MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
SHIFTS INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
COINCIDING WITH A STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX
OF DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO
PROMOTE MIXING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST DACKS AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM
WRF CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50
MPH ACROSS THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP GUIDANCE
SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. CONTROLLING
SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW
OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY BECOMING QUASI-
STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND. NORTH COUNTRY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND SEASONABLY LOW
THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S
THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH
DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40
POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND (20-30 POPS).
THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C.
GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500` THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT SUMMIT LOCATIONS.
PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
(OVC150-200) AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 11Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING AT WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND LIFTING NEWD FROM
CENTRAL NY...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPING DURING
THE 12-15Z PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE 14-18Z. WARM FRONTAL RAINBAND LIFTS THROUGH
RATHER RAPIDLY...WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HRS. GENERALLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO 3-5KFT.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LLWS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000`...SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTER UP LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ANTICIPATE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AS SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 05-12Z TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 723 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, AS THEY`VE RISEN JUST AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING PRECIP, AND ARE FALLING WHERE PRECIP HAS BEGUN. OTHERWISE,
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD
TODAY, THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR,
BUT DO APPROACH 1" ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL
SUPPORT RAIN BEING MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
SHIFTS INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
COINCIDING WITH A STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX
OF DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO
PROMOTE MIXING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST DACKS AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM
WRF CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50
MPH ACROSS THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP GUIDANCE
SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. CONTROLLING
SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW
OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY BECOMING QUASI-
STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND. NORTH COUNTRY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND SEASONABLY LOW
THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S
THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH
DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40
POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND (20-30 POPS).
THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C.
GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500` THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT SUMMIT LOCATIONS.
PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
(OVC150-200) AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 11Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING AT WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND LIFTING NEWD FROM
CENTRAL NY...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPING DURING
THE 12-15Z PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE 14-18Z. WARM FRONTAL RAINBAND LIFTS THROUGH
RATHER RAPIDLY...WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HRS. GENERALLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO 3-5KFT.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LLWS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000`...SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTER UP LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ANTICIPATE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AS SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 05-12Z TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 201125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 723 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, AS THEY`VE RISEN JUST AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING PRECIP, AND ARE FALLING WHERE PRECIP HAS BEGUN. OTHERWISE,
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD
TODAY, THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR,
BUT DO APPROACH 1" ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL
SUPPORT RAIN BEING MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
SHIFTS INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
COINCIDING WITH A STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX
OF DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO
PROMOTE MIXING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST DACKS AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM
WRF CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50
MPH ACROSS THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP GUIDANCE
SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. CONTROLLING
SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW
OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY BECOMING QUASI-
STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND. NORTH COUNTRY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND SEASONABLY LOW
THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S
THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH
DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40
POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND (20-30 POPS).
THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C.
GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500` THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT SUMMIT LOCATIONS.
PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
(OVC150-200) AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 11Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING AT WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND LIFTING NEWD FROM
CENTRAL NY...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPING DURING
THE 12-15Z PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE 14-18Z. WARM FRONTAL RAINBAND LIFTS THROUGH
RATHER RAPIDLY...WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HRS. GENERALLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO 3-5KFT.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LLWS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000`...SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTER UP LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ANTICIPATE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AS SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 05-12Z TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KALY 201057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM EDT...ONE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS MOVING
QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SOME WET SNOW COULD BE OCCURRING
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT WITHIN THIS BAND. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER AN INCH WHERE SNOWFALL OCCURS INITIALLY.

ANOTHER BAND OF MODERATE RAIN WAS OVER EASTERN PA/WESTERN NJ...AND
TRANSLATING N/NE. THIS SHOULD OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN AREAS OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND FURTHER N AND E BETWEEN 10 AM AND NOON.

OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD OCCUR
MAINLY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BEST SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING ACROSS. THE
RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME...ESP ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT...THE SE CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS
THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN
INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING OCCURS...DIMINISHING THE
THREAT OF STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS MAY HOLD STEADY...OR EVEN FALL A BIT THIS MORNING AS THE
RAIN OCCURS...BEFORE SLOWLY RISING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID
50S FOR VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND 40S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THE MILDEST TEMPS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN TEMPS MAY REACH THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PRE SUNRISE HOURS...AS DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO
MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
12Z THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN AROUND 10Z-12Z...
BECOMING A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BY 14Z-15Z. RAIN INTENSITY
SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR
ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z TUESDAY. AFTER 00Z...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARD IFR BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO
JUST INDICATE SCATTERED LAYER BELOW 1000 FEET WITH CEILINGS AROUND
1000 FEET BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE MVFR WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ IS STILL POSSIBLE AT KPSF/KPOU STARTING
AFTER SUNRISE AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY...AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST
JET ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
AS STRONG AT KALB/KGFL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LLWS FOR NOW.
LLWS SHOULD END BY 00Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT EXITS THE REGION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
AROUND 10-12 KT BY DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING FURTHER TO AROUND 12-15
KT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25 KT...
ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA
DAM IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK
AT HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 201057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM EDT...ONE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS MOVING
QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SOME WET SNOW COULD BE OCCURRING
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT WITHIN THIS BAND. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER AN INCH WHERE SNOWFALL OCCURS INITIALLY.

ANOTHER BAND OF MODERATE RAIN WAS OVER EASTERN PA/WESTERN NJ...AND
TRANSLATING N/NE. THIS SHOULD OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN AREAS OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND FURTHER N AND E BETWEEN 10 AM AND NOON.

OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD OCCUR
MAINLY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BEST SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING ACROSS. THE
RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME...ESP ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT...THE SE CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS
THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN
INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING OCCURS...DIMINISHING THE
THREAT OF STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS MAY HOLD STEADY...OR EVEN FALL A BIT THIS MORNING AS THE
RAIN OCCURS...BEFORE SLOWLY RISING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID
50S FOR VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND 40S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THE MILDEST TEMPS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN TEMPS MAY REACH THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PRE SUNRISE HOURS...AS DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO
MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
12Z THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN AROUND 10Z-12Z...
BECOMING A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BY 14Z-15Z. RAIN INTENSITY
SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR
ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z TUESDAY. AFTER 00Z...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARD IFR BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO
JUST INDICATE SCATTERED LAYER BELOW 1000 FEET WITH CEILINGS AROUND
1000 FEET BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE MVFR WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ IS STILL POSSIBLE AT KPSF/KPOU STARTING
AFTER SUNRISE AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY...AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST
JET ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
AS STRONG AT KALB/KGFL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LLWS FOR NOW.
LLWS SHOULD END BY 00Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT EXITS THE REGION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
AROUND 10-12 KT BY DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING FURTHER TO AROUND 12-15
KT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25 KT...
ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA
DAM IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK
AT HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 200904
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
504 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 5 AM EDT...LIGHT RAIN WAS QUICKLY DEVELOPING FROM THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...SOUTHERN TACONICS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT...AND
SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
EXPERIENCING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BY DAYBREAK.

ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. SO...AS
THE PRECIP DEVELOPS...JUST ENOUGH WET BULB COOLING MAY OCCUR TO
ALLOW THE PRECIP TO BEGIN AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR EVEN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET. MINOR ACCUMS OF UP TO AN INCH COULD OCCUR
FOR SOME ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT. A FEW POCKETS OF SNOW/SLEET
COULD ALSO OCCUR ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AS WELL
AT PRECIP ONSET...AGAIN MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.

OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD OCCUR
MAINLY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BEST SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING ACROSS. THE
RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME...ESP ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT...THE SE CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS
THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN
INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING OCCURS...DIMINISHING THE
THREAT OF STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS MAY HOLD STEADY...OR EVEN FALL A BIT THIS MORNING AS THE
RAIN OCCURS...BEFORE SLOWLY RISING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID
50S FOR VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND 40S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THE MILDEST TEMPS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN TEMPS MAY REACH THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PRE SUNRISE HOURS...AS DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO
MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
12Z THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN AROUND 10Z-12Z...
BECOMING A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BY 14Z-15Z. RAIN INTENSITY
SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR
ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z TUESDAY. AFTER 00Z...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARD IFR BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO
JUST INDICATE SCATTERED LAYER BELOW 1000 FEET WITH CEILINGS AROUND
1000 FEET BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE MVFR WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ IS STILL POSSIBLE AT KPSF/KPOU STARTING
AFTER SUNRISE AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY...AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST
JET ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
AS STRONG AT KALB/KGFL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LLWS FOR NOW.
LLWS SHOULD END BY 00Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT EXITS THE REGION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
AROUND 10-12 KT BY DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING FURTHER TO AROUND 12-15
KT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25 KT...
ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA
DAM IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK
AT HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 200904
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
504 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 5 AM EDT...LIGHT RAIN WAS QUICKLY DEVELOPING FROM THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...SOUTHERN TACONICS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT...AND
SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
EXPERIENCING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BY DAYBREAK.

ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. SO...AS
THE PRECIP DEVELOPS...JUST ENOUGH WET BULB COOLING MAY OCCUR TO
ALLOW THE PRECIP TO BEGIN AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR EVEN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET. MINOR ACCUMS OF UP TO AN INCH COULD OCCUR
FOR SOME ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT. A FEW POCKETS OF SNOW/SLEET
COULD ALSO OCCUR ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AS WELL
AT PRECIP ONSET...AGAIN MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.

OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD OCCUR
MAINLY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BEST SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING ACROSS. THE
RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME...ESP ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT...THE SE CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS
THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN
INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING OCCURS...DIMINISHING THE
THREAT OF STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS MAY HOLD STEADY...OR EVEN FALL A BIT THIS MORNING AS THE
RAIN OCCURS...BEFORE SLOWLY RISING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID
50S FOR VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND 40S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THE MILDEST TEMPS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN TEMPS MAY REACH THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PRE SUNRISE HOURS...AS DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO
MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
12Z THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN AROUND 10Z-12Z...
BECOMING A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BY 14Z-15Z. RAIN INTENSITY
SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR
ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z TUESDAY. AFTER 00Z...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARD IFR BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO
JUST INDICATE SCATTERED LAYER BELOW 1000 FEET WITH CEILINGS AROUND
1000 FEET BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE MVFR WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ IS STILL POSSIBLE AT KPSF/KPOU STARTING
AFTER SUNRISE AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY...AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST
JET ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
AS STRONG AT KALB/KGFL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LLWS FOR NOW.
LLWS SHOULD END BY 00Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT EXITS THE REGION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
AROUND 10-12 KT BY DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING FURTHER TO AROUND 12-15
KT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25 KT...
ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA
DAM IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK
AT HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 200904
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
504 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 5 AM EDT...LIGHT RAIN WAS QUICKLY DEVELOPING FROM THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...SOUTHERN TACONICS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT...AND
SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
EXPERIENCING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BY DAYBREAK.

ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. SO...AS
THE PRECIP DEVELOPS...JUST ENOUGH WET BULB COOLING MAY OCCUR TO
ALLOW THE PRECIP TO BEGIN AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR EVEN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET. MINOR ACCUMS OF UP TO AN INCH COULD OCCUR
FOR SOME ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT. A FEW POCKETS OF SNOW/SLEET
COULD ALSO OCCUR ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AS WELL
AT PRECIP ONSET...AGAIN MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.

OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD OCCUR
MAINLY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BEST SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING ACROSS. THE
RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME...ESP ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT...THE SE CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS
THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN
INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING OCCURS...DIMINISHING THE
THREAT OF STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS MAY HOLD STEADY...OR EVEN FALL A BIT THIS MORNING AS THE
RAIN OCCURS...BEFORE SLOWLY RISING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID
50S FOR VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND 40S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THE MILDEST TEMPS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN TEMPS MAY REACH THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PRE SUNRISE HOURS...AS DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO
MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
12Z THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN AROUND 10Z-12Z...
BECOMING A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BY 14Z-15Z. RAIN INTENSITY
SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR
ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z TUESDAY. AFTER 00Z...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARD IFR BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO
JUST INDICATE SCATTERED LAYER BELOW 1000 FEET WITH CEILINGS AROUND
1000 FEET BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE MVFR WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ IS STILL POSSIBLE AT KPSF/KPOU STARTING
AFTER SUNRISE AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY...AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST
JET ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
AS STRONG AT KALB/KGFL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LLWS FOR NOW.
LLWS SHOULD END BY 00Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT EXITS THE REGION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
AROUND 10-12 KT BY DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING FURTHER TO AROUND 12-15
KT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25 KT...
ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA
DAM IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK
AT HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 200904
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
504 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 5 AM EDT...LIGHT RAIN WAS QUICKLY DEVELOPING FROM THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...SOUTHERN TACONICS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT...AND
SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
EXPERIENCING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BY DAYBREAK.

ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. SO...AS
THE PRECIP DEVELOPS...JUST ENOUGH WET BULB COOLING MAY OCCUR TO
ALLOW THE PRECIP TO BEGIN AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR EVEN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET. MINOR ACCUMS OF UP TO AN INCH COULD OCCUR
FOR SOME ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT. A FEW POCKETS OF SNOW/SLEET
COULD ALSO OCCUR ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AS WELL
AT PRECIP ONSET...AGAIN MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.

OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD OCCUR
MAINLY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BEST SURGE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING ACROSS. THE
RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME...ESP ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT...THE SE CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS
THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN
INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING OCCURS...DIMINISHING THE
THREAT OF STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS MAY HOLD STEADY...OR EVEN FALL A BIT THIS MORNING AS THE
RAIN OCCURS...BEFORE SLOWLY RISING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID
50S FOR VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND 40S ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THE MILDEST TEMPS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN TEMPS MAY REACH THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PRE SUNRISE HOURS...AS DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO
MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
12Z THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN AROUND 10Z-12Z...
BECOMING A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BY 14Z-15Z. RAIN INTENSITY
SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR
ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z TUESDAY. AFTER 00Z...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARD IFR BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO
JUST INDICATE SCATTERED LAYER BELOW 1000 FEET WITH CEILINGS AROUND
1000 FEET BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE MVFR WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ IS STILL POSSIBLE AT KPSF/KPOU STARTING
AFTER SUNRISE AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY...AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST
JET ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
AS STRONG AT KALB/KGFL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LLWS FOR NOW.
LLWS SHOULD END BY 00Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT EXITS THE REGION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
AROUND 10-12 KT BY DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING FURTHER TO AROUND 12-15
KT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25 KT...
ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA
DAM IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK
AT HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 200808
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD
TODAY, THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR,
BUT DO APPROACH 1" ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL
SUPPORT RAIN BEING MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
SHIFTS INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
COINCIDING WITH A STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX
OF DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO
PROMOTE MIXING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST DACKS AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM
WRF CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50
MPH ACROSS THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP GUIDANCE
SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. CONTROLLING
SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW
OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY BECOMING QUASI-
STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND. NORTH COUNTRY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND SEASONABLY LOW
THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S
THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH
DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40
POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND (20-30 POPS).
THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C.
GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500` THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT SUMMIT LOCATIONS.
PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
(OVC150-200) AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 11Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING AT WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND LIFTING NEWD FROM
CENTRAL NY...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPING DURING
THE 12-15Z PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE 14-18Z. WARM FRONTAL RAINBAND LIFTS THROUGH
RATHER RAPIDLY...WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HRS. GENERALLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO 3-5KFT.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LLWS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000`...SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTER UP LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ANTICIPATE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AS SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 05-12Z TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR VTZ006-011-016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 200808
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD
TODAY, THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR,
BUT DO APPROACH 1" ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL
SUPPORT RAIN BEING MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
SHIFTS INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
COINCIDING WITH A STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX
OF DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO
PROMOTE MIXING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST DACKS AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM
WRF CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50
MPH ACROSS THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP GUIDANCE
SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. CONTROLLING
SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW
OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY BECOMING QUASI-
STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND. NORTH COUNTRY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND SEASONABLY LOW
THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S
THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH
DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40
POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND (20-30 POPS).
THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C.
GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500` THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT SUMMIT LOCATIONS.
PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
(OVC150-200) AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 11Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING AT WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND LIFTING NEWD FROM
CENTRAL NY...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPING DURING
THE 12-15Z PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE 14-18Z. WARM FRONTAL RAINBAND LIFTS THROUGH
RATHER RAPIDLY...WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HRS. GENERALLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO 3-5KFT.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LLWS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000`...SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTER UP LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ANTICIPATE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AS SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 05-12Z TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR VTZ006-011-016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 200740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF
SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1048 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVER THE REGION PER LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. HAVE AGAIN RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN A FEW LOCATIONS...AS INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS EXPECTED...HAVE RAISED A WIND ADVISORY AS A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL
MATERIALIZE ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY AND LAMOILLE COUNTY WHERE THESE AREAS
TYPICALLY ARE ALSO IMPACTED BY THIS TYPE OF EVENT. LOCAL 4KM WRF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 925MB
OVER THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN PEAKS FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL
OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE STILL THINK WE`LL SEE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDER AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER ADDED. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STUCK UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEANDERING CUT OFF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP GUIDANCE
SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. CONTROLLING
SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW
OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY BECOMING QUASI-
STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND. NORTH COUNTRY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND SEASONABLY LOW
THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S
THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH
DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40
POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND (20-30 POPS).
THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C.
GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500` THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT SUMMIT LOCATIONS.
PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
(OVC150-200) AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 11Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING AT WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND LIFTING NEWD FROM
CENTRAL NY...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPING DURING
THE 12-15Z PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE 14-18Z. WARM FRONTAL RAINBAND LIFTS THROUGH
RATHER RAPIDLY...WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HRS. GENERALLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO 3-5KFT.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LLWS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000`...SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTER UP LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ANTICIPATE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AS SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 05-12Z TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR VTZ006-011-016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 200740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF
SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1048 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVER THE REGION PER LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. HAVE AGAIN RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN A FEW LOCATIONS...AS INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS EXPECTED...HAVE RAISED A WIND ADVISORY AS A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL
MATERIALIZE ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY AND LAMOILLE COUNTY WHERE THESE AREAS
TYPICALLY ARE ALSO IMPACTED BY THIS TYPE OF EVENT. LOCAL 4KM WRF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 925MB
OVER THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN PEAKS FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL
OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE STILL THINK WE`LL SEE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDER AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER ADDED. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STUCK UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEANDERING CUT OFF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP GUIDANCE
SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. CONTROLLING
SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW
OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY BECOMING QUASI-
STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND. NORTH COUNTRY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND SEASONABLY LOW
THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S
THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH
DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40
POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND (20-30 POPS).
THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C.
GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500` THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT SUMMIT LOCATIONS.
PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
(OVC150-200) AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 11Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING AT WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND LIFTING NEWD FROM
CENTRAL NY...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPING DURING
THE 12-15Z PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE 14-18Z. WARM FRONTAL RAINBAND LIFTS THROUGH
RATHER RAPIDLY...WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HRS. GENERALLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO 3-5KFT.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LLWS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000`...SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTER UP LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ANTICIPATE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AS SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 05-12Z TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR VTZ006-011-016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KALY 200540
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. OUR WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND
UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THANKS TO A LARGE LOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MAINLY
BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM...AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM/S WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW
AND/OR SLEET AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...BERKSHIRES
IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTIES SOUTHERN VERMONT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

A LARGE UPPER LOW LEVEL LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AND GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK.

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ANOMALIES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WITH THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 4 TO 6 ABOVE NORMAL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST MONDAY EVENING.

THIS STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

WE NEVER GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR...THE TRIPLE POINT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE RAINFALL. HAVE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
SHOWALTER VALUES LOWER TO BELOW ZERO INDICATING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AS THIS OCCURS.

WILL HAVE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH A LULL
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. AS
OF NOW...TIMING LOOKS TO BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...THEN SOUTH AND EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO OCCUR WITH THE SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER IS LOW SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

COLDER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS GETTING BACK INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS. CONTINUED THREAT FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THURSDAY.

FAIRLY GENERIC FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
STAGNANT CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHOWERS DUE TO FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES...SO WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PRE SUNRISE HOURS...AS DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO
MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
12Z THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN AROUND 10Z-12Z...
BECOMING A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BY 14Z-15Z. RAIN INTENSITY
SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR
ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z TUESDAY. AFTER 00Z...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARD IFR BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO
JUST INDICATE SCATTERED LAYER BELOW 1000 FEET WITH CEILINGS AROUND
1000 FEET BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE MVFR WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ IS STILL POSSIBLE AT KPSF/KPOU STARTING
AFTER SUNRISE AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY...AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST
JET ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
AS STRONG AT KALB/KGFL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LLWS FOR NOW.
LLWS SHOULD END BY 00Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT EXITS THE REGION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
AROUND 10-12 KT BY DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING FURTHER TO AROUND 12-15
KT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25 KT...
ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN
INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL
IS ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA DAM
IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 200540
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. OUR WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND
UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THANKS TO A LARGE LOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MAINLY
BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM...AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM/S WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW
AND/OR SLEET AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...BERKSHIRES
IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTIES SOUTHERN VERMONT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

A LARGE UPPER LOW LEVEL LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AND GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK.

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ANOMALIES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WITH THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 4 TO 6 ABOVE NORMAL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST MONDAY EVENING.

THIS STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

WE NEVER GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR...THE TRIPLE POINT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE RAINFALL. HAVE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
SHOWALTER VALUES LOWER TO BELOW ZERO INDICATING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AS THIS OCCURS.

WILL HAVE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH A LULL
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. AS
OF NOW...TIMING LOOKS TO BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...THEN SOUTH AND EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO OCCUR WITH THE SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER IS LOW SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

COLDER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS GETTING BACK INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS. CONTINUED THREAT FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THURSDAY.

FAIRLY GENERIC FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
STAGNANT CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHOWERS DUE TO FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES...SO WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PRE SUNRISE HOURS...AS DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO
MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
12Z THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN AROUND 10Z-12Z...
BECOMING A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BY 14Z-15Z. RAIN INTENSITY
SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR
ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z TUESDAY. AFTER 00Z...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARD IFR BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO
JUST INDICATE SCATTERED LAYER BELOW 1000 FEET WITH CEILINGS AROUND
1000 FEET BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE MVFR WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ IS STILL POSSIBLE AT KPSF/KPOU STARTING
AFTER SUNRISE AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY...AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST
JET ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
AS STRONG AT KALB/KGFL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LLWS FOR NOW.
LLWS SHOULD END BY 00Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT EXITS THE REGION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
AROUND 10-12 KT BY DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING FURTHER TO AROUND 12-15
KT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25 KT...
ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
BUT DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN
INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL
IS ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA DAM
IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 200539
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
139 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF
SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1048 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVER THE REGION PER LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. HAVE AGAIN RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN A FEW LOCATIONS...AS INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS EXPECTED...HAVE RAISED A WIND ADVISORY AS A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL
MATERIALIZE ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY AND LAMOILLE COUNTY WHERE THESE AREAS
TYPICALLY ARE ALSO IMPACTED BY THIS TYPE OF EVENT. LOCAL 4KM WRF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 925MB
OVER THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN PEAKS FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL
OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE STILL THINK WE`LL SEE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDER AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER ADDED. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STUCK UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEANDERING CUT OFF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PRECIP CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN. CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND EAST OF AREA FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH ECMWF
MAINTAINING A MORE COMPACT CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A SHARPER RIDGE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
RIDGE FURTHER WEST.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PASSAGE, AND FROM THURSDAY ON MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT, 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -32C FRIDAY MORNING,
DAYTIME HEATING WILL EASILY DESTABILIZE AND KICK OFF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AFFECT PRECIP TYPE,
AND SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...NOT REALLY WILD SWINGS WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS
AFTER INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS LIMITED
BY COOL AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT SUNSHINE, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LIMITED BY SAME CLOUD COVER. HIGHS 40S/50S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
(OVC150-200) AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 11Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING AT WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND LIFTING NEWD FROM
CENTRAL NY...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPING DURING
THE 12-15Z PERIOD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE 14-18Z. WARM FRONTAL RAINBAND LIFTS THROUGH
RATHER RAPIDLY...WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HRS. GENERALLY INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO 3-5KFT.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LLWS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000`...SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTER UP LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ANTICIPATE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AS SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 05-12Z TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR VTZ006-011-016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 200248
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1048 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF
SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1048 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVER THE REGION PER LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. HAVE AGAIN RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN A FEW LOCATIONS...AS INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS EXPECTED...HAVE RAISED A WIND ADVISORY AS A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL
MATERIALIZE ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY AND LAMOILLE COUNTY WHERE THESE AREAS
TYPICALLY ARE ALSO IMPACTED BY THIS TYPE OF EVENT. LOCAL 4KM WRF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 925MB
OVER THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN PEAKS FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL
OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE STILL THINK WE`LL SEE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDER AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER ADDED. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STUCK UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEANDERING CUT OFF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PRECIP CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN. CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND EAST OF AREA FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH ECMWF
MAINTAINING A MORE COMPACT CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A SHARPER RIDGE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
RIDGE FURTHER WEST.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PASSAGE, AND FROM THURSDAY ON MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT, 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -32C FRIDAY MORNING,
DAYTIME HEATING WILL EASILY DESTABILIZE AND KICK OFF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AFFECT PRECIP TYPE,
AND SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...NOT REALLY WILD SWINGS WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS
AFTER INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS LIMITED
BY COOL AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT SUNSHINE, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LIMITED BY SAME CLOUD COVER. HIGHS 40S/50S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH ABOUT 10Z OR SO. THEREAFTER,
INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN STEADY
LIGHT RAIN. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AMONG ADDITIONAL AVIATION
CONSIDERATIONS INTO MONDAY.

EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL LOWER IN CEILINGS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING,
WITH WINDS STEADILY INCREASING TO 10-14 KTS. I`VE ALSO SHOWN VCSH
BETWEEN 10-11Z, THOUGH IT LIKELY WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
COLUMN TO SATURATE.

STEADIER RAIN FALLS MONDAY (STARTING IN THE 12-15Z PERIOD) ALONG
WITH INCREASING/GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. BASED ON PRESENT
VIS OBSERVATIONS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, I`VE SHOWN VIS IN RAIN IN
4-6 SM RANGE. RAIN TURNS MORE INTERMITTENT AT MSS AND SLK LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD, AND I`VE SHOWN VCSH THERE HERE. CEILINGS TO TURN
MVFR IN RAIN. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 KTS (HIGHEST AT RUT). I`VE HELD OFF ON LLWS AS SHEAR
DIFFERENCE ON THE ORDER OF 20 KTS IS ABOVE 2 KFT AGL, THOUGH
LIKELY STILL TO BE A BUMPY CLIMB AND APPROACH.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN AREA CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING MAINLY VFR BUT
SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
RUTLAND. LLWS POSSIBLE.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY
VFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY SOME
SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWER MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES..KMPV/KSLK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ006-011-016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...LOCONTO/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 200248
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1048 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF
SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1048 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVER THE REGION PER LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. HAVE AGAIN RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN A FEW LOCATIONS...AS INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS EXPECTED...HAVE RAISED A WIND ADVISORY AS A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL
MATERIALIZE ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY AND LAMOILLE COUNTY WHERE THESE AREAS
TYPICALLY ARE ALSO IMPACTED BY THIS TYPE OF EVENT. LOCAL 4KM WRF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 925MB
OVER THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN PEAKS FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL
OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE STILL THINK WE`LL SEE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDER AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER ADDED. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STUCK UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEANDERING CUT OFF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PRECIP CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN. CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND EAST OF AREA FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH ECMWF
MAINTAINING A MORE COMPACT CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A SHARPER RIDGE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
RIDGE FURTHER WEST.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PASSAGE, AND FROM THURSDAY ON MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT, 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -32C FRIDAY MORNING,
DAYTIME HEATING WILL EASILY DESTABILIZE AND KICK OFF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AFFECT PRECIP TYPE,
AND SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...NOT REALLY WILD SWINGS WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS
AFTER INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS LIMITED
BY COOL AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT SUNSHINE, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LIMITED BY SAME CLOUD COVER. HIGHS 40S/50S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH ABOUT 10Z OR SO. THEREAFTER,
INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN STEADY
LIGHT RAIN. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AMONG ADDITIONAL AVIATION
CONSIDERATIONS INTO MONDAY.

EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL LOWER IN CEILINGS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING,
WITH WINDS STEADILY INCREASING TO 10-14 KTS. I`VE ALSO SHOWN VCSH
BETWEEN 10-11Z, THOUGH IT LIKELY WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
COLUMN TO SATURATE.

STEADIER RAIN FALLS MONDAY (STARTING IN THE 12-15Z PERIOD) ALONG
WITH INCREASING/GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. BASED ON PRESENT
VIS OBSERVATIONS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, I`VE SHOWN VIS IN RAIN IN
4-6 SM RANGE. RAIN TURNS MORE INTERMITTENT AT MSS AND SLK LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD, AND I`VE SHOWN VCSH THERE HERE. CEILINGS TO TURN
MVFR IN RAIN. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 KTS (HIGHEST AT RUT). I`VE HELD OFF ON LLWS AS SHEAR
DIFFERENCE ON THE ORDER OF 20 KTS IS ABOVE 2 KFT AGL, THOUGH
LIKELY STILL TO BE A BUMPY CLIMB AND APPROACH.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN AREA CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING MAINLY VFR BUT
SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
RUTLAND. LLWS POSSIBLE.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY
VFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY SOME
SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWER MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES..KMPV/KSLK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ006-011-016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...LOCONTO/HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 200248
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1048 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF
SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1048 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVER THE REGION PER LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. HAVE AGAIN RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN A FEW LOCATIONS...AS INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS EXPECTED...HAVE RAISED A WIND ADVISORY AS A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL
MATERIALIZE ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY AND LAMOILLE COUNTY WHERE THESE AREAS
TYPICALLY ARE ALSO IMPACTED BY THIS TYPE OF EVENT. LOCAL 4KM WRF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 925MB
OVER THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN PEAKS FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL
OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE STILL THINK WE`LL SEE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDER AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER ADDED. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STUCK UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEANDERING CUT OFF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PRECIP CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN. CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND EAST OF AREA FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH ECMWF
MAINTAINING A MORE COMPACT CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A SHARPER RIDGE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
RIDGE FURTHER WEST.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PASSAGE, AND FROM THURSDAY ON MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT, 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -32C FRIDAY MORNING,
DAYTIME HEATING WILL EASILY DESTABILIZE AND KICK OFF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AFFECT PRECIP TYPE,
AND SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...NOT REALLY WILD SWINGS WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS
AFTER INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS LIMITED
BY COOL AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT SUNSHINE, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LIMITED BY SAME CLOUD COVER. HIGHS 40S/50S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH ABOUT 10Z OR SO. THEREAFTER,
INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN STEADY
LIGHT RAIN. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AMONG ADDITIONAL AVIATION
CONSIDERATIONS INTO MONDAY.

EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL LOWER IN CEILINGS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING,
WITH WINDS STEADILY INCREASING TO 10-14 KTS. I`VE ALSO SHOWN VCSH
BETWEEN 10-11Z, THOUGH IT LIKELY WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
COLUMN TO SATURATE.

STEADIER RAIN FALLS MONDAY (STARTING IN THE 12-15Z PERIOD) ALONG
WITH INCREASING/GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. BASED ON PRESENT
VIS OBSERVATIONS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, I`VE SHOWN VIS IN RAIN IN
4-6 SM RANGE. RAIN TURNS MORE INTERMITTENT AT MSS AND SLK LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD, AND I`VE SHOWN VCSH THERE HERE. CEILINGS TO TURN
MVFR IN RAIN. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 KTS (HIGHEST AT RUT). I`VE HELD OFF ON LLWS AS SHEAR
DIFFERENCE ON THE ORDER OF 20 KTS IS ABOVE 2 KFT AGL, THOUGH
LIKELY STILL TO BE A BUMPY CLIMB AND APPROACH.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN AREA CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING MAINLY VFR BUT
SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
RUTLAND. LLWS POSSIBLE.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY
VFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY SOME
SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWER MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES..KMPV/KSLK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ006-011-016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...LOCONTO/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 200248
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1048 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF
SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1048 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVER THE REGION PER LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. HAVE AGAIN RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN A FEW LOCATIONS...AS INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS EXPECTED...HAVE RAISED A WIND ADVISORY AS A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL
MATERIALIZE ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY AND LAMOILLE COUNTY WHERE THESE AREAS
TYPICALLY ARE ALSO IMPACTED BY THIS TYPE OF EVENT. LOCAL 4KM WRF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 925MB
OVER THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN PEAKS FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL
OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE STILL THINK WE`LL SEE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDER AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER ADDED. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STUCK UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEANDERING CUT OFF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PRECIP CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN. CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND EAST OF AREA FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH ECMWF
MAINTAINING A MORE COMPACT CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A SHARPER RIDGE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
RIDGE FURTHER WEST.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PASSAGE, AND FROM THURSDAY ON MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT, 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -32C FRIDAY MORNING,
DAYTIME HEATING WILL EASILY DESTABILIZE AND KICK OFF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AFFECT PRECIP TYPE,
AND SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...NOT REALLY WILD SWINGS WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS
AFTER INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS LIMITED
BY COOL AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT SUNSHINE, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LIMITED BY SAME CLOUD COVER. HIGHS 40S/50S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH ABOUT 10Z OR SO. THEREAFTER,
INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN STEADY
LIGHT RAIN. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AMONG ADDITIONAL AVIATION
CONSIDERATIONS INTO MONDAY.

EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL LOWER IN CEILINGS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING,
WITH WINDS STEADILY INCREASING TO 10-14 KTS. I`VE ALSO SHOWN VCSH
BETWEEN 10-11Z, THOUGH IT LIKELY WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
COLUMN TO SATURATE.

STEADIER RAIN FALLS MONDAY (STARTING IN THE 12-15Z PERIOD) ALONG
WITH INCREASING/GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. BASED ON PRESENT
VIS OBSERVATIONS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, I`VE SHOWN VIS IN RAIN IN
4-6 SM RANGE. RAIN TURNS MORE INTERMITTENT AT MSS AND SLK LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD, AND I`VE SHOWN VCSH THERE HERE. CEILINGS TO TURN
MVFR IN RAIN. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 KTS (HIGHEST AT RUT). I`VE HELD OFF ON LLWS AS SHEAR
DIFFERENCE ON THE ORDER OF 20 KTS IS ABOVE 2 KFT AGL, THOUGH
LIKELY STILL TO BE A BUMPY CLIMB AND APPROACH.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN AREA CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING MAINLY VFR BUT
SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
RUTLAND. LLWS POSSIBLE.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY
VFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY SOME
SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWER MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES..KMPV/KSLK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ006-011-016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...LOCONTO/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 200248
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1048 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF
SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1048 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVER THE REGION PER LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. HAVE AGAIN RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN A FEW LOCATIONS...AS INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS EXPECTED...HAVE RAISED A WIND ADVISORY AS A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL
MATERIALIZE ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY AND LAMOILLE COUNTY WHERE THESE AREAS
TYPICALLY ARE ALSO IMPACTED BY THIS TYPE OF EVENT. LOCAL 4KM WRF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 925MB
OVER THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN PEAKS FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL
OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE STILL THINK WE`LL SEE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDER AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER ADDED. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STUCK UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEANDERING CUT OFF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PRECIP CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN. CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND EAST OF AREA FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH ECMWF
MAINTAINING A MORE COMPACT CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A SHARPER RIDGE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
RIDGE FURTHER WEST.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PASSAGE, AND FROM THURSDAY ON MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT, 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -32C FRIDAY MORNING,
DAYTIME HEATING WILL EASILY DESTABILIZE AND KICK OFF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AFFECT PRECIP TYPE,
AND SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...NOT REALLY WILD SWINGS WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS
AFTER INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS LIMITED
BY COOL AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT SUNSHINE, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LIMITED BY SAME CLOUD COVER. HIGHS 40S/50S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH ABOUT 10Z OR SO. THEREAFTER,
INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN STEADY
LIGHT RAIN. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AMONG ADDITIONAL AVIATION
CONSIDERATIONS INTO MONDAY.

EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL LOWER IN CEILINGS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING,
WITH WINDS STEADILY INCREASING TO 10-14 KTS. I`VE ALSO SHOWN VCSH
BETWEEN 10-11Z, THOUGH IT LIKELY WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
COLUMN TO SATURATE.

STEADIER RAIN FALLS MONDAY (STARTING IN THE 12-15Z PERIOD) ALONG
WITH INCREASING/GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. BASED ON PRESENT
VIS OBSERVATIONS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, I`VE SHOWN VIS IN RAIN IN
4-6 SM RANGE. RAIN TURNS MORE INTERMITTENT AT MSS AND SLK LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD, AND I`VE SHOWN VCSH THERE HERE. CEILINGS TO TURN
MVFR IN RAIN. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 KTS (HIGHEST AT RUT). I`VE HELD OFF ON LLWS AS SHEAR
DIFFERENCE ON THE ORDER OF 20 KTS IS ABOVE 2 KFT AGL, THOUGH
LIKELY STILL TO BE A BUMPY CLIMB AND APPROACH.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN AREA CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING MAINLY VFR BUT
SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
RUTLAND. LLWS POSSIBLE.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY
VFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY SOME
SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWER MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES..KMPV/KSLK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ006-011-016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...LOCONTO/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 200248
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1048 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF
SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1048 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVER THE REGION PER LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. HAVE AGAIN RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN A FEW LOCATIONS...AS INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS EXPECTED...HAVE RAISED A WIND ADVISORY AS A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL
MATERIALIZE ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY AND LAMOILLE COUNTY WHERE THESE AREAS
TYPICALLY ARE ALSO IMPACTED BY THIS TYPE OF EVENT. LOCAL 4KM WRF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 925MB
OVER THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN PEAKS FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL
OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE STILL THINK WE`LL SEE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDER AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER ADDED. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STUCK UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEANDERING CUT OFF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PRECIP CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN. CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND EAST OF AREA FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH ECMWF
MAINTAINING A MORE COMPACT CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A SHARPER RIDGE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
RIDGE FURTHER WEST.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PASSAGE, AND FROM THURSDAY ON MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT, 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -32C FRIDAY MORNING,
DAYTIME HEATING WILL EASILY DESTABILIZE AND KICK OFF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AFFECT PRECIP TYPE,
AND SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...NOT REALLY WILD SWINGS WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS
AFTER INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS LIMITED
BY COOL AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT SUNSHINE, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LIMITED BY SAME CLOUD COVER. HIGHS 40S/50S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH ABOUT 10Z OR SO. THEREAFTER,
INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN STEADY
LIGHT RAIN. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AMONG ADDITIONAL AVIATION
CONSIDERATIONS INTO MONDAY.

EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL LOWER IN CEILINGS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING,
WITH WINDS STEADILY INCREASING TO 10-14 KTS. I`VE ALSO SHOWN VCSH
BETWEEN 10-11Z, THOUGH IT LIKELY WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
COLUMN TO SATURATE.

STEADIER RAIN FALLS MONDAY (STARTING IN THE 12-15Z PERIOD) ALONG
WITH INCREASING/GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. BASED ON PRESENT
VIS OBSERVATIONS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, I`VE SHOWN VIS IN RAIN IN
4-6 SM RANGE. RAIN TURNS MORE INTERMITTENT AT MSS AND SLK LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD, AND I`VE SHOWN VCSH THERE HERE. CEILINGS TO TURN
MVFR IN RAIN. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 KTS (HIGHEST AT RUT). I`VE HELD OFF ON LLWS AS SHEAR
DIFFERENCE ON THE ORDER OF 20 KTS IS ABOVE 2 KFT AGL, THOUGH
LIKELY STILL TO BE A BUMPY CLIMB AND APPROACH.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN AREA CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING MAINLY VFR BUT
SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
RUTLAND. LLWS POSSIBLE.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY
VFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY SOME
SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWER MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES..KMPV/KSLK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ006-011-016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...LOCONTO/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 200208
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. OUR WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND
UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THANKS TO A LARGE LOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1008 PM EDT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN
LATE THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL DROP RATHER QUICKLY
TONIGHT DUE TO A DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE DESPITE THE
THICKENING CLOUDS.

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM...AS
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AS THE
SYSTEM/S WARM FRONT APPROACHES. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
OFF NICELY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOWFALL
AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...BERKSHIRES
IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTIES SOUTHERN VERMONT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

A LARGE UPPER LOW LEVEL LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AND GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK.

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ANOMALIES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WITH THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 4 TO 6 ABOVE NORMAL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST MONDAY EVENING.

THIS STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

WE NEVER GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR...THE TRIPLE POINT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE RAINFALL. HAVE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
SHOWALTER VALUES LOWER TO BELOW ZERO INDICATING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AS THIS OCCURS.

WILL HAVE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH A LULL
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. AS
OF NOW...TIMING LOOKS TO BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...THEN SOUTH AND EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO OCCUR WITH THE SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER IS LOW SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

COLDER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS GETTING BACK INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS. CONTINUED THREAT FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THURSDAY.

FAIRLY GENERIC FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
STAGNANT CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHOWERS DUE TO FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES...SO WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM EARLY MONDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AS DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO
MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN AROUND 10Z-
12Z...BECOMING A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BY 14Z-15Z. RAIN
INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z
TUESDAY.

ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ TO THE KPSF/KPOU TAFS STARTING
MONDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY...AS A STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY JET ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AT KALB/KGFL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF LLWS FOR NOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
AROUND 10-12 KTS BY DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING FURTHER TO AROUND
12-15 KTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25
KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN
INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL
IS ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA DAM
IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 200208
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. OUR WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND
UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THANKS TO A LARGE LOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1008 PM EDT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN
LATE THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL DROP RATHER QUICKLY
TONIGHT DUE TO A DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE DESPITE THE
THICKENING CLOUDS.

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM...AS
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AS THE
SYSTEM/S WARM FRONT APPROACHES. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
OFF NICELY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOWFALL
AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...BERKSHIRES
IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTIES SOUTHERN VERMONT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

A LARGE UPPER LOW LEVEL LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AND GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK.

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ANOMALIES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WITH THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 4 TO 6 ABOVE NORMAL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST MONDAY EVENING.

THIS STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

WE NEVER GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR...THE TRIPLE POINT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE RAINFALL. HAVE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
SHOWALTER VALUES LOWER TO BELOW ZERO INDICATING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AS THIS OCCURS.

WILL HAVE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH A LULL
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. AS
OF NOW...TIMING LOOKS TO BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...THEN SOUTH AND EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO OCCUR WITH THE SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER IS LOW SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

COLDER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS GETTING BACK INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS. CONTINUED THREAT FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THURSDAY.

FAIRLY GENERIC FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
STAGNANT CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHOWERS DUE TO FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES...SO WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM EARLY MONDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AS DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO
MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN AROUND 10Z-
12Z...BECOMING A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BY 14Z-15Z. RAIN
INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z
TUESDAY.

ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ TO THE KPSF/KPOU TAFS STARTING
MONDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY...AS A STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY JET ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AT KALB/KGFL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF LLWS FOR NOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
AROUND 10-12 KTS BY DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING FURTHER TO AROUND
12-15 KTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25
KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN
INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL
IS ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA DAM
IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 200208
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. OUR WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND
UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THANKS TO A LARGE LOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1008 PM EDT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN
LATE THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL DROP RATHER QUICKLY
TONIGHT DUE TO A DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE DESPITE THE
THICKENING CLOUDS.

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM...AS
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AS THE
SYSTEM/S WARM FRONT APPROACHES. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
OFF NICELY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOWFALL
AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...BERKSHIRES
IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTIES SOUTHERN VERMONT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

A LARGE UPPER LOW LEVEL LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AND GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK.

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ANOMALIES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WITH THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 4 TO 6 ABOVE NORMAL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST MONDAY EVENING.

THIS STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

WE NEVER GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR...THE TRIPLE POINT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE RAINFALL. HAVE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
SHOWALTER VALUES LOWER TO BELOW ZERO INDICATING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AS THIS OCCURS.

WILL HAVE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH A LULL
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. AS
OF NOW...TIMING LOOKS TO BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...THEN SOUTH AND EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO OCCUR WITH THE SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER IS LOW SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

COLDER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS GETTING BACK INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS. CONTINUED THREAT FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THURSDAY.

FAIRLY GENERIC FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
STAGNANT CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHOWERS DUE TO FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES...SO WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM EARLY MONDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AS DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO
MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN AROUND 10Z-
12Z...BECOMING A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BY 14Z-15Z. RAIN
INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z
TUESDAY.

ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ TO THE KPSF/KPOU TAFS STARTING
MONDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY...AS A STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY JET ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AT KALB/KGFL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF LLWS FOR NOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
AROUND 10-12 KTS BY DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING FURTHER TO AROUND
12-15 KTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25
KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN
INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL
IS ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA DAM
IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 200208
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. OUR WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND
UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THANKS TO A LARGE LOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1008 PM EDT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN
LATE THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL DROP RATHER QUICKLY
TONIGHT DUE TO A DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE DESPITE THE
THICKENING CLOUDS.

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM...AS
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AS THE
SYSTEM/S WARM FRONT APPROACHES. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
OFF NICELY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOWFALL
AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...BERKSHIRES
IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTIES SOUTHERN VERMONT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

A LARGE UPPER LOW LEVEL LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AND GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK.

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ANOMALIES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WITH THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 4 TO 6 ABOVE NORMAL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST MONDAY EVENING.

THIS STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

WE NEVER GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR...THE TRIPLE POINT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE RAINFALL. HAVE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
SHOWALTER VALUES LOWER TO BELOW ZERO INDICATING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AS THIS OCCURS.

WILL HAVE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH A LULL
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. AS
OF NOW...TIMING LOOKS TO BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...THEN SOUTH AND EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO OCCUR WITH THE SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER IS LOW SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

COLDER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS GETTING BACK INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS. CONTINUED THREAT FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THURSDAY.

FAIRLY GENERIC FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
STAGNANT CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHOWERS DUE TO FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES...SO WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM EARLY MONDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AS DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO
MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN AROUND 10Z-
12Z...BECOMING A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BY 14Z-15Z. RAIN
INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z
TUESDAY.

ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ TO THE KPSF/KPOU TAFS STARTING
MONDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY...AS A STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY JET ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AT KALB/KGFL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF LLWS FOR NOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
AROUND 10-12 KTS BY DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING FURTHER TO AROUND
12-15 KTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25
KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN
INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL
IS ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA DAM
IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KBTV 192346
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF
SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 746 PM EDT SUNDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. HAVE RAISED
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS BASED
ON LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WILL SEE CLOUDS
INCREASE AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A
WARM OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
WHERE IT TAKES THE LONGEST FOR THE CLOUDS TO REACH THERE.
OTHERWISE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ARE EXPECTED FOR MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS EXPECTED...HAVE RAISED A WIND ADVISORY AS A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL
MATERIALIZE ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY AND LAMOILLE COUNTY WHERE THESE AREAS
TYPICALLY ARE ALSO IMPACTED BY THIS TYPE OF EVENT. LOCAL 4KM WRF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 925MB
OVER THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN PEAKS FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL
OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE STILL THINK WE`LL SEE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDER AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER ADDED. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STUCK UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEANDERING CUT OFF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PRECIP CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN. CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND EAST OF AREA FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH ECMWF
MAINTAINING A MORE COMPACT CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A SHARPER RIDGE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
RIDGE FURTHER WEST.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PASSAGE, AND FROM THURSDAY ON MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT, 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -32C FRIDAY MORNING,
DAYTIME HEATING WILL EASILY DESTABILIZE AND KICK OFF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AFFECT PRECIP TYPE,
AND SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...NOT REALLY WILD SWINGS WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS
AFTER INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS LIMITED
BY COOL AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT SUNSHINE, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LIMITED BY SAME CLOUD COVER. HIGHS 40S/50S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH ABOUT 10Z OR SO. THEREAFTER,
INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN STEADY
LIGHT RAIN. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AMONG ADDITIONAL AVIATION
CONSIDERATIONS INTO MONDAY.

EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL LOWER IN CEILINGS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING,
WITH WINDS STEADILY INCREASING TO 10-14 KTS. I`VE ALSO SHOWN VCSH
BETWEEN 10-11Z, THOUGH IT LIKELY WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
COLUMN TO SATURATE.

STEADIER RAIN FALLS MONDAY (STARTING IN THE 12-15Z PERIOD) ALONG
WITH INCREASING/GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. BASED ON PRESENT
VIS OBSERVATIONS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, I`VE SHOWN VIS IN RAIN IN
4-6 SM RANGE. RAIN TURNS MORE INTERMITTENT AT MSS AND SLK LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD, AND I`VE SHOWN VCSH THERE HERE. CEILINGS TO TURN
MVFR IN RAIN. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 KTS (HIGHEST AT RUT). I`VE HELD OFF ON LLWS AS SHEAR
DIFFERENCE ON THE ORDER OF 20 KTS IS ABOVE 2 KFT AGL, THOUGH
LIKELY STILL TO BE A BUMPY CLIMB AND APPROACH.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN AREA CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING MAINLY VFR BUT
SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
RUTLAND. LLWS POSSIBLE.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY
VFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY SOME
SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWER MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES..KMPV/KSLK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ006-011-016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...LOCONTO/HANSON



000
FXUS61 KALY 192345
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
745 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. OUR WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND
UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THANKS TO A LARGE LOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE
AREA AS SUNSET APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL DROP RATHER
QUICKLY TONIGHT DUE TO A DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE DESPITE
THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 2 AM AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM/S WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF
NICELY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOWFALL AS
THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...BERKSHIRES
IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTIES SOUTHERN VERMONT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

A LARGE UPPER LOW LEVEL LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AND GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK.

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ANOMALIES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WITH THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 4 TO 6 ABOVE NORMAL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST MONDAY EVENING.

THIS STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

WE NEVER GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR...THE TRIPLE POINT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE RAINFALL. HAVE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
SHOWALTER VALUES LOWER TO BELOW ZERO INDICATING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AS THIS OCCURS.

WILL HAVE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH A LULL
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. AS
OF NOW...TIMING LOOKS TO BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...THEN SOUTH AND EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO OCCUR WITH THE SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER IS LOW SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

COLDER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS GETTING BACK INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS. CONTINUED THREAT FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THURSDAY.

FAIRLY GENERIC FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
STAGNANT CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHOWERS DUE TO FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES...SO WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM EARLY MONDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AS DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO
MOISTEN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN AROUND 10Z-
12Z...BECOMING A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BY 14Z-15Z. RAIN
INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z
TUESDAY.

ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ TO THE KPSF/KPOU TAFS STARTING
MONDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY...AS A STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY JET ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AT KALB/KGFL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF LLWS FOR NOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
AROUND 10-12 KTS BY DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING FURTHER TO AROUND
12-15 KTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20-25
KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN
INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL
IS ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA DAM
IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KBTV 192329
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE IT TAKES THE
LONGEST FOR THE CLOUDS TO REACH THERE. OTHERWISE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S ARE EXPECTED FOR MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS EXPECTED...HAVE RAISED A WIND ADVISORY AS A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL
MATERIALIZE ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY AND LAMOILLE COUNTY WHERE THESE AREAS
TYPICALLY ARE ALSO IMPACTED BY THIS TYPE OF EVENT. LOCAL 4KM WRF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 925MB
OVER THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN PEAKS FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL
OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE STILL THINK WE`LL SEE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDER AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER ADDED. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STUCK UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEANDERING CUT OFF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PRECIP CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN. CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND EAST OF AREA FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH ECMWF
MAINTAINING A MORE COMPACT CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A SHARPER RIDGE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
RIDGE FURTHER WEST.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PASSAGE, AND FROM THURSDAY ON MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT, 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -32C FRIDAY MORNING,
DAYTIME HEATING WILL EASILY DESTABILIZE AND KICK OFF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AFFECT PRECIP TYPE,
AND SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...NOT REALLY WILD SWINGS WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS
AFTER INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS LIMITED
BY COOL AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT SUNSHINE, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LIMITED BY SAME CLOUD COVER. HIGHS 40S/50S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH ABOUT 10Z OR SO. THEREAFTER,
INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN STEADY
LIGHT RAIN. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AMONG ADDITIONAL AVIATION
CONSIDERATIONS INTO MONDAY.

EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL LOWER IN CEILINGS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING,
WITH WINDS STEADILY INCREASING TO 10-14 KTS. I`VE ALSO SHOWN VCSH
BETWEEN 10-11Z, THOUGH IT LIKELY WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
COLUMN TO SATURATE.

STEADIER RAIN FALLS MONDAY (STARTING IN THE 12-15Z PERIOD) ALONG
WITH INCREASING/GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. BASED ON PRESENT
VIS OBSERVATIONS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, I`VE SHOWN VIS IN RAIN IN
4-6 SM RANGE. RAIN TURNS MORE INTERMITTENT AT MSS AND SLK LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD, AND I`VE SHOWN VCSH THERE HERE. CEILINGS TO TURN
MVFR IN RAIN. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 KTS (HIGHEST AT RUT). I`VE HELD OFF ON LLWS AS SHEAR
DIFFERENCE ON THE ORDER OF 20 KTS IS ABOVE 2 KFT AGL, THOUGH
LIKELY STILL TO BE A BUMPY CLIMB AND APPROACH.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN AREA CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING MAINLY VFR BUT
SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
RUTLAND. LLWS POSSIBLE.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY
VFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY SOME
SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWER MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES..KMPV/KSLK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ006-011-016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...LOCONTO/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 192329
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE IT TAKES THE
LONGEST FOR THE CLOUDS TO REACH THERE. OTHERWISE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S ARE EXPECTED FOR MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS EXPECTED...HAVE RAISED A WIND ADVISORY AS A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL
MATERIALIZE ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY AND LAMOILLE COUNTY WHERE THESE AREAS
TYPICALLY ARE ALSO IMPACTED BY THIS TYPE OF EVENT. LOCAL 4KM WRF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 925MB
OVER THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN PEAKS FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL
OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE STILL THINK WE`LL SEE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDER AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER ADDED. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STUCK UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEANDERING CUT OFF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PRECIP CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN. CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND EAST OF AREA FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH ECMWF
MAINTAINING A MORE COMPACT CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A SHARPER RIDGE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
RIDGE FURTHER WEST.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PASSAGE, AND FROM THURSDAY ON MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT, 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -32C FRIDAY MORNING,
DAYTIME HEATING WILL EASILY DESTABILIZE AND KICK OFF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AFFECT PRECIP TYPE,
AND SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...NOT REALLY WILD SWINGS WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS
AFTER INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS LIMITED
BY COOL AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT SUNSHINE, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LIMITED BY SAME CLOUD COVER. HIGHS 40S/50S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH ABOUT 10Z OR SO. THEREAFTER,
INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN STEADY
LIGHT RAIN. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AMONG ADDITIONAL AVIATION
CONSIDERATIONS INTO MONDAY.

EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL LOWER IN CEILINGS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING,
WITH WINDS STEADILY INCREASING TO 10-14 KTS. I`VE ALSO SHOWN VCSH
BETWEEN 10-11Z, THOUGH IT LIKELY WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
COLUMN TO SATURATE.

STEADIER RAIN FALLS MONDAY (STARTING IN THE 12-15Z PERIOD) ALONG
WITH INCREASING/GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. BASED ON PRESENT
VIS OBSERVATIONS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, I`VE SHOWN VIS IN RAIN IN
4-6 SM RANGE. RAIN TURNS MORE INTERMITTENT AT MSS AND SLK LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD, AND I`VE SHOWN VCSH THERE HERE. CEILINGS TO TURN
MVFR IN RAIN. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 KTS (HIGHEST AT RUT). I`VE HELD OFF ON LLWS AS SHEAR
DIFFERENCE ON THE ORDER OF 20 KTS IS ABOVE 2 KFT AGL, THOUGH
LIKELY STILL TO BE A BUMPY CLIMB AND APPROACH.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN AREA CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING MAINLY VFR BUT
SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
RUTLAND. LLWS POSSIBLE.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY
VFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY SOME
SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWER MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES..KMPV/KSLK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ006-011-016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...LOCONTO/HANSON



000
FXUS61 KALY 192132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
532 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. OUR WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND
UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THANKS TO A LARGE LOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NICELY THIS EVENING AND BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME SNOWFALL AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...BERKSHIRES
IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTIES SOUTHERN VERMONT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

A LARGE UPPER LOW LEVEL LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AND GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK.

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ANOMALIES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WITH THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 4 TO 6 ABOVE NORMAL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST MONDAY EVENING.

THIS STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS
...BERKSHIRES INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR DETAILS.

WE NEVER GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR...THE TRIPLE POINT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE RAINFALL. HAVE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
SHOWALTER VALUES LOWER TO BELOW ZERO INDICATING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AS THIS OCCURS.

WILL HAVE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH A LULL
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. AS
OF NOW...TIMING LOOKS TO BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...THEN SOUTH AND EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO OCCUR WITH THE SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER IS LOW SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

COLDER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS GETTING BACK INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS. CONTINUED THREAT FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THURSDAY.

FAIRLY GENERIC FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
STAGNANT CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHOWERS DUE TO FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES...SO WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD AND BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL CHANGE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OVER MICHIGAN AS WE GO
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS A SLOW PROGRESSING WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF RAIN FOR ALL TAF SITES WILL BE AFTER 12Z MONDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BE STEADY AT TIMES.
WHERE BREAKS IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY OCCURS...WIND GUSTS COULD BE
RATHER GUSTY....ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. VSBYS AND CEILINGS
WILL DECREASE AS WE GO PAST 12Z TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER
20 KNOTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA. SLIGHT CHC TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN
INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL
IS ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA DAM
IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 192132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
532 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. OUR WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND
UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THANKS TO A LARGE LOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NICELY THIS EVENING AND BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME SNOWFALL AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...BERKSHIRES
IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTIES SOUTHERN VERMONT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

A LARGE UPPER LOW LEVEL LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AND GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK.

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ANOMALIES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WITH THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 4 TO 6 ABOVE NORMAL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST MONDAY EVENING.

THIS STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS
...BERKSHIRES INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR DETAILS.

WE NEVER GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR...THE TRIPLE POINT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE RAINFALL. HAVE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
SHOWALTER VALUES LOWER TO BELOW ZERO INDICATING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AS THIS OCCURS.

WILL HAVE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH A LULL
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. AS
OF NOW...TIMING LOOKS TO BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...THEN SOUTH AND EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO OCCUR WITH THE SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER IS LOW SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

COLDER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS GETTING BACK INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS. CONTINUED THREAT FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THURSDAY.

FAIRLY GENERIC FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
STAGNANT CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHOWERS DUE TO FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES...SO WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD AND BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL CHANGE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OVER MICHIGAN AS WE GO
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS A SLOW PROGRESSING WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF RAIN FOR ALL TAF SITES WILL BE AFTER 12Z MONDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BE STEADY AT TIMES.
WHERE BREAKS IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY OCCURS...WIND GUSTS COULD BE
RATHER GUSTY....ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. VSBYS AND CEILINGS
WILL DECREASE AS WE GO PAST 12Z TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER
20 KNOTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA. SLIGHT CHC TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN
INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL
IS ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA DAM
IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 192132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
532 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. OUR WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND
UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THANKS TO A LARGE LOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NICELY THIS EVENING AND BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME SNOWFALL AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...BERKSHIRES
IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTIES SOUTHERN VERMONT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

A LARGE UPPER LOW LEVEL LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AND GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK.

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ANOMALIES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WITH THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 4 TO 6 ABOVE NORMAL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST MONDAY EVENING.

THIS STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS
...BERKSHIRES INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR DETAILS.

WE NEVER GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR...THE TRIPLE POINT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE RAINFALL. HAVE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
SHOWALTER VALUES LOWER TO BELOW ZERO INDICATING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AS THIS OCCURS.

WILL HAVE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH A LULL
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. AS
OF NOW...TIMING LOOKS TO BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...THEN SOUTH AND EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO OCCUR WITH THE SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER IS LOW SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

COLDER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS GETTING BACK INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS. CONTINUED THREAT FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THURSDAY.

FAIRLY GENERIC FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
STAGNANT CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHOWERS DUE TO FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES...SO WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD AND BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL CHANGE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OVER MICHIGAN AS WE GO
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS A SLOW PROGRESSING WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF RAIN FOR ALL TAF SITES WILL BE AFTER 12Z MONDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BE STEADY AT TIMES.
WHERE BREAKS IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY OCCURS...WIND GUSTS COULD BE
RATHER GUSTY....ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. VSBYS AND CEILINGS
WILL DECREASE AS WE GO PAST 12Z TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER
20 KNOTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA. SLIGHT CHC TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN
INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL
IS ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA DAM
IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 192132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
532 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. OUR WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND
UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THANKS TO A LARGE LOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NICELY THIS EVENING AND BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME SNOWFALL AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...BERKSHIRES
IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTIES SOUTHERN VERMONT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

A LARGE UPPER LOW LEVEL LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AND GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK.

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ANOMALIES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WITH THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 4 TO 6 ABOVE NORMAL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST MONDAY EVENING.

THIS STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS
...BERKSHIRES INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR DETAILS.

WE NEVER GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR...THE TRIPLE POINT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE RAINFALL. HAVE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
SHOWALTER VALUES LOWER TO BELOW ZERO INDICATING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AS THIS OCCURS.

WILL HAVE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH A LULL
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. AS
OF NOW...TIMING LOOKS TO BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...THEN SOUTH AND EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO OCCUR WITH THE SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER IS LOW SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

COLDER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS GETTING BACK INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS. CONTINUED THREAT FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THURSDAY.

FAIRLY GENERIC FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
STAGNANT CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHOWERS DUE TO FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES...SO WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD AND BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL CHANGE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OVER MICHIGAN AS WE GO
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS A SLOW PROGRESSING WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF RAIN FOR ALL TAF SITES WILL BE AFTER 12Z MONDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BE STEADY AT TIMES.
WHERE BREAKS IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY OCCURS...WIND GUSTS COULD BE
RATHER GUSTY....ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. VSBYS AND CEILINGS
WILL DECREASE AS WE GO PAST 12Z TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER
20 KNOTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA. SLIGHT CHC TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN
INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL
IS ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA DAM
IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 192106
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
506 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. OUR WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND
UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THANKS TO A LARGE LOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NICELY THIS EVENING AND BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME SNOWFALL AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...BERKSHIRES
IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTIES SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

MORE TO COME...

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. AS
OF NOW...TIMING LOOKS TO BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...THEN SOUTH AND EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO OCCUR WITH THE SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER IS LOW SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

COLDER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS GETTING BACK INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS. CONTINUED THREAT FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THURSDAY.

FAIRLY GENERIC FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
STAGNANT CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHOWERS DUE TO FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES...SO WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD AND BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL CHANGE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OVER MICHIGAN AS WE GO
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS A SLOW PROGRESSING WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF RAIN FOR ALL TAF SITES WILL BE AFTER 12Z MONDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BE STEADY AT TIMES.
WHERE BREAKS IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY OCCURS...WIND GUSTS COULD BE
RATHER GUSTY....ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. VSBYS AND CEILINGS
WILL DECREASE AS WE GO PAST 12Z TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER
20 KNOTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA. SLIGHT CHC TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN
INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL
IS ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA DAM
IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 192106
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
506 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. OUR WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND
UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THANKS TO A LARGE LOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NICELY THIS EVENING AND BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME SNOWFALL AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...BERKSHIRES
IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTIES SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

MORE TO COME...

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. AS
OF NOW...TIMING LOOKS TO BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...THEN SOUTH AND EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO OCCUR WITH THE SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER IS LOW SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

COLDER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS GETTING BACK INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS. CONTINUED THREAT FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THURSDAY.

FAIRLY GENERIC FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
STAGNANT CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHOWERS DUE TO FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES...SO WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD AND BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL CHANGE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OVER MICHIGAN AS WE GO
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS A SLOW PROGRESSING WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF RAIN FOR ALL TAF SITES WILL BE AFTER 12Z MONDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BE STEADY AT TIMES.
WHERE BREAKS IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY OCCURS...WIND GUSTS COULD BE
RATHER GUSTY....ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. VSBYS AND CEILINGS
WILL DECREASE AS WE GO PAST 12Z TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER
20 KNOTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA. SLIGHT CHC TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN
INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL
IS ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA DAM
IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 192106
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
506 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. OUR WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND
UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THANKS TO A LARGE LOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NICELY THIS EVENING AND BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME SNOWFALL AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...BERKSHIRES
IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTIES SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

MORE TO COME...

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. AS
OF NOW...TIMING LOOKS TO BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...THEN SOUTH AND EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO OCCUR WITH THE SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER IS LOW SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

COLDER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS GETTING BACK INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS. CONTINUED THREAT FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THURSDAY.

FAIRLY GENERIC FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
STAGNANT CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHOWERS DUE TO FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES...SO WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD AND BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL CHANGE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OVER MICHIGAN AS WE GO
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS A SLOW PROGRESSING WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF RAIN FOR ALL TAF SITES WILL BE AFTER 12Z MONDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BE STEADY AT TIMES.
WHERE BREAKS IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY OCCURS...WIND GUSTS COULD BE
RATHER GUSTY....ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. VSBYS AND CEILINGS
WILL DECREASE AS WE GO PAST 12Z TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER
20 KNOTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA. SLIGHT CHC TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN
INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL
IS ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA DAM
IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 192106
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
506 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. OUR WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND
UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THANKS TO A LARGE LOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NICELY THIS EVENING AND BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME SNOWFALL AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...BERKSHIRES
IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTIES SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

MORE TO COME...

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. AS
OF NOW...TIMING LOOKS TO BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...THEN SOUTH AND EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO OCCUR WITH THE SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER IS LOW SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

COLDER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS GETTING BACK INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS. CONTINUED THREAT FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THURSDAY.

FAIRLY GENERIC FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
STAGNANT CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHOWERS DUE TO FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES...SO WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD AND BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL CHANGE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OVER MICHIGAN AS WE GO
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS A SLOW PROGRESSING WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF RAIN FOR ALL TAF SITES WILL BE AFTER 12Z MONDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BE STEADY AT TIMES.
WHERE BREAKS IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY OCCURS...WIND GUSTS COULD BE
RATHER GUSTY....ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. VSBYS AND CEILINGS
WILL DECREASE AS WE GO PAST 12Z TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER
20 KNOTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA. SLIGHT CHC TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN
INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL
IS ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS ONLY THE SCHOHARIE CREEK AT GILBOA DAM
IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BOTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 192009
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
409 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE IT TAKES THE
LONGEST FOR THE CLOUDS TO REACH THERE. OTHERWISE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S ARE EXPECTED FOR MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS EXPECTED...HAVE RAISED A WIND ADVISORY AS A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL
MATERIALIZE ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY AND LAMOILLE COUNTY WHERE THESE AREAS
TYPICALLY ARE ALSO IMPACTED BY THIS TYPE OF EVENT. LOCAL 4KM WRF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 925MB
OVER THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN PEAKS FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL
OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE STILL THINK WE`LL SEE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDER AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER ADDED. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STUCK UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEANDERING CUT OFF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PRECIP CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN. CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND EAST OF AREA FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH ECMWF
MAINTAINING A MORE COMPACT CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A SHARPER RIDGE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
RIDGE FURTHER WEST.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PASSAGE, AND FROM THURSDAY ON MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT, 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -32C FRIDAY MORNING,
DAYTIME HEATING WILL EASILY DESTABILIZE AND KICK OFF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AFFECT PRECIP TYPE,
AND SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...NOT REALLY WILD SWINGS WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS
AFTER INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS LIMITED
BY COOL AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT SUNSHINE, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LIMITED BY SAME CLOUD COVER. HIGHS 40S/50S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CLEAR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND WIND TOWARD MORNING. THE MAIN FEATURE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD IS WIND BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
STRENGTHENING 09-12Z TIMEFRAME. FROM 12-18Z MONDAY EXPECT WINDS
15-25 KTS AND GUSTS 25-35 KTS. WITH SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE DOWNSLOPE ON WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NW
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AFTER 15Z AND SPREAD RAIN WEST TO EAST WITH CIGS/VIS
REMAINING VFR. LEFT LLWS OUT OF THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE IN PACE WITH WINDS ALOFT AND ABOUT A 20 KT DIFFERENTIAL,
BELOW THE LLWS CRITERIA. HOWEVER WILL BE A BUMPY CLIMB OUT AND
APPROACH 12-18Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN AREA TO LIFT NORTHEAST DURING
THE PERIOD WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN RUTLAND. LLWS
POSSIBLE.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY
VFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY SOME
SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWER MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES..KMPV/KSLK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ006-011-016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 192009
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
409 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE IT TAKES THE
LONGEST FOR THE CLOUDS TO REACH THERE. OTHERWISE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S ARE EXPECTED FOR MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS EXPECTED...HAVE RAISED A WIND ADVISORY AS A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL
MATERIALIZE ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY AND LAMOILLE COUNTY WHERE THESE AREAS
TYPICALLY ARE ALSO IMPACTED BY THIS TYPE OF EVENT. LOCAL 4KM WRF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 925MB
OVER THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN PEAKS FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL
OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE STILL THINK WE`LL SEE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDER AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER ADDED. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STUCK UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEANDERING CUT OFF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PRECIP CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN. CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND EAST OF AREA FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH ECMWF
MAINTAINING A MORE COMPACT CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A SHARPER RIDGE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
RIDGE FURTHER WEST.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PASSAGE, AND FROM THURSDAY ON MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT, 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -32C FRIDAY MORNING,
DAYTIME HEATING WILL EASILY DESTABILIZE AND KICK OFF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AFFECT PRECIP TYPE,
AND SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...NOT REALLY WILD SWINGS WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS
AFTER INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS LIMITED
BY COOL AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT SUNSHINE, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LIMITED BY SAME CLOUD COVER. HIGHS 40S/50S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CLEAR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND WIND TOWARD MORNING. THE MAIN FEATURE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD IS WIND BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
STRENGTHENING 09-12Z TIMEFRAME. FROM 12-18Z MONDAY EXPECT WINDS
15-25 KTS AND GUSTS 25-35 KTS. WITH SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE DOWNSLOPE ON WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NW
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AFTER 15Z AND SPREAD RAIN WEST TO EAST WITH CIGS/VIS
REMAINING VFR. LEFT LLWS OUT OF THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE IN PACE WITH WINDS ALOFT AND ABOUT A 20 KT DIFFERENTIAL,
BELOW THE LLWS CRITERIA. HOWEVER WILL BE A BUMPY CLIMB OUT AND
APPROACH 12-18Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN AREA TO LIFT NORTHEAST DURING
THE PERIOD WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN RUTLAND. LLWS
POSSIBLE.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY
VFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY SOME
SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWER MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES..KMPV/KSLK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ006-011-016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 192009
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
409 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE IT TAKES THE
LONGEST FOR THE CLOUDS TO REACH THERE. OTHERWISE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S ARE EXPECTED FOR MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS EXPECTED...HAVE RAISED A WIND ADVISORY AS A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL
MATERIALIZE ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY AND LAMOILLE COUNTY WHERE THESE AREAS
TYPICALLY ARE ALSO IMPACTED BY THIS TYPE OF EVENT. LOCAL 4KM WRF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 925MB
OVER THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN PEAKS FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL
OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE STILL THINK WE`LL SEE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDER AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER ADDED. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STUCK UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEANDERING CUT OFF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PRECIP CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN. CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND EAST OF AREA FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH ECMWF
MAINTAINING A MORE COMPACT CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A SHARPER RIDGE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
RIDGE FURTHER WEST.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PASSAGE, AND FROM THURSDAY ON MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT, 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -32C FRIDAY MORNING,
DAYTIME HEATING WILL EASILY DESTABILIZE AND KICK OFF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AFFECT PRECIP TYPE,
AND SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...NOT REALLY WILD SWINGS WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS
AFTER INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS LIMITED
BY COOL AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT SUNSHINE, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LIMITED BY SAME CLOUD COVER. HIGHS 40S/50S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CLEAR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND WIND TOWARD MORNING. THE MAIN FEATURE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD IS WIND BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
STRENGTHENING 09-12Z TIMEFRAME. FROM 12-18Z MONDAY EXPECT WINDS
15-25 KTS AND GUSTS 25-35 KTS. WITH SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE DOWNSLOPE ON WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NW
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AFTER 15Z AND SPREAD RAIN WEST TO EAST WITH CIGS/VIS
REMAINING VFR. LEFT LLWS OUT OF THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE IN PACE WITH WINDS ALOFT AND ABOUT A 20 KT DIFFERENTIAL,
BELOW THE LLWS CRITERIA. HOWEVER WILL BE A BUMPY CLIMB OUT AND
APPROACH 12-18Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN AREA TO LIFT NORTHEAST DURING
THE PERIOD WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN RUTLAND. LLWS
POSSIBLE.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY
VFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY SOME
SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWER MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES..KMPV/KSLK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ006-011-016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 192009
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
409 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE IT TAKES THE
LONGEST FOR THE CLOUDS TO REACH THERE. OTHERWISE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S ARE EXPECTED FOR MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS EXPECTED...HAVE RAISED A WIND ADVISORY AS A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL
MATERIALIZE ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY AND LAMOILLE COUNTY WHERE THESE AREAS
TYPICALLY ARE ALSO IMPACTED BY THIS TYPE OF EVENT. LOCAL 4KM WRF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 925MB
OVER THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN PEAKS FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL
OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE STILL THINK WE`LL SEE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDER AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER ADDED. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STUCK UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEANDERING CUT OFF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PRECIP CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN. CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND EAST OF AREA FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH ECMWF
MAINTAINING A MORE COMPACT CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A SHARPER RIDGE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
RIDGE FURTHER WEST.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PASSAGE, AND FROM THURSDAY ON MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT, 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -32C FRIDAY MORNING,
DAYTIME HEATING WILL EASILY DESTABILIZE AND KICK OFF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AFFECT PRECIP TYPE,
AND SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...NOT REALLY WILD SWINGS WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS
AFTER INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS LIMITED
BY COOL AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT SUNSHINE, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LIMITED BY SAME CLOUD COVER. HIGHS 40S/50S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CLEAR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND WIND TOWARD MORNING. THE MAIN FEATURE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD IS WIND BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
STRENGTHENING 09-12Z TIMEFRAME. FROM 12-18Z MONDAY EXPECT WINDS
15-25 KTS AND GUSTS 25-35 KTS. WITH SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE DOWNSLOPE ON WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NW
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AFTER 15Z AND SPREAD RAIN WEST TO EAST WITH CIGS/VIS
REMAINING VFR. LEFT LLWS OUT OF THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE IN PACE WITH WINDS ALOFT AND ABOUT A 20 KT DIFFERENTIAL,
BELOW THE LLWS CRITERIA. HOWEVER WILL BE A BUMPY CLIMB OUT AND
APPROACH 12-18Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN AREA TO LIFT NORTHEAST DURING
THE PERIOD WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN RUTLAND. LLWS
POSSIBLE.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY
VFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY SOME
SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWER MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES..KMPV/KSLK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ006-011-016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 191933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE
LAST NICE DAY WE SEE FOR AWHILE UNFORTUNATELY, AS A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1027 AM EDT SUNDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR 1030
AM UPDATE THIS MORNING. REFRESHED FIRST FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND INTERPOLATE OUT. AS EXPECTED CLOUDS ARE
DISSIPATING THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS LIKE SUNNY
SKIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BETTER GET OUT THERE AND ENJOY TODAY
BECAUSE IT MIGHT BE THE LAST ONE LIKE THIS FOR AWHILE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WE`RE STILL SEEING SOME PESKY
LOW STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING FROM CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF
THE NOVA SCOTIA COASTLINE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE TO
CLEARER SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. 925-850MB TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY SO DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT THEN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND
TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE SURFACE LOW TAKES
SHAPE, A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND TRAVERSE THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING
MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT
CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN
ADDITION, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL MATERIALIZE ALONG
THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL 4KM WRF SHOWS A STRONG
925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING WITH THE LATEST RUN INDICATING 50-60KTS AT 925MB OVER THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL OF THESE WINDS WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AT WE`LL SEE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH WHICH WOULD WARRANT A
WIND ADVISORY. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND ALLOW FURTHER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS, BUT IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT`S IN THE CARDS.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SPC SREF CALIBRATED TS PROGS SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANTICIPATE IT WILL TURN OUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH JUST A
HANDFUL OF STRIKES, NOTHING REALLY TO WORRY ABOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PRECIP CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN. CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND EAST OF AREA FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH ECMWF
MAINTAINING A MORE COMPACT CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A SHARPER RIDGE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
RIDGE FURTHER WEST.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PASSAGE, AND FROM THURSDAY ON MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT, 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -32C FRIDAY MORNING,
DAYTIME HEATING WILL EASILY DESTABILIZE AND KICK OFF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AFFECT PRECIP TYPE,
AND SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...NOT REALLY WILD SWINGS WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS
AFTER INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS LIMITED
BY COOL AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT SUNSHINE, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LIMITED BY SAME CLOUD COVER. HIGHS 40S/50S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CLEAR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND WIND TOWARD MORNING. THE MAIN FEATURE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD IS WIND BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
STRENGTHENING 09-12Z TIMEFRAME. FROM 12-18Z MONDAY EXPECT WINDS
15-25 KTS AND GUSTS 25-35 KTS. WITH SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE DOWNSLOPE ON WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NW
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AFTER 15Z AND SPREAD RAIN WEST TO EAST WITH CIGS/VIS
REMAINING VFR. LEFT LLWS OUT OF THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE IN PACE WITH WINDS ALOFT AND ABOUT A 20 KT DIFFERENTIAL,
BELOW THE LLWS CRITERIA. HOWEVER WILL BE A BUMPY CLIMB OUT AND
APPROACH 12-18Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN AREA TO LIFT NORTHEAST DURING
THE PERIOD WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN RUTLAND. LLWS
POSSIBLE.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY
VFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY SOME
SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWER MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES..KMPV/KSLK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 191933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE
LAST NICE DAY WE SEE FOR AWHILE UNFORTUNATELY, AS A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1027 AM EDT SUNDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR 1030
AM UPDATE THIS MORNING. REFRESHED FIRST FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND INTERPOLATE OUT. AS EXPECTED CLOUDS ARE
DISSIPATING THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS LIKE SUNNY
SKIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BETTER GET OUT THERE AND ENJOY TODAY
BECAUSE IT MIGHT BE THE LAST ONE LIKE THIS FOR AWHILE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WE`RE STILL SEEING SOME PESKY
LOW STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING FROM CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF
THE NOVA SCOTIA COASTLINE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE TO
CLEARER SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. 925-850MB TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY SO DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT THEN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND
TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE SURFACE LOW TAKES
SHAPE, A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND TRAVERSE THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING
MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT
CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN
ADDITION, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL MATERIALIZE ALONG
THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL 4KM WRF SHOWS A STRONG
925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING WITH THE LATEST RUN INDICATING 50-60KTS AT 925MB OVER THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL OF THESE WINDS WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AT WE`LL SEE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH WHICH WOULD WARRANT A
WIND ADVISORY. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND ALLOW FURTHER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS, BUT IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT`S IN THE CARDS.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SPC SREF CALIBRATED TS PROGS SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANTICIPATE IT WILL TURN OUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH JUST A
HANDFUL OF STRIKES, NOTHING REALLY TO WORRY ABOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PRECIP CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN. CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND EAST OF AREA FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH ECMWF
MAINTAINING A MORE COMPACT CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A SHARPER RIDGE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
RIDGE FURTHER WEST.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PASSAGE, AND FROM THURSDAY ON MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT, 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -32C FRIDAY MORNING,
DAYTIME HEATING WILL EASILY DESTABILIZE AND KICK OFF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AFFECT PRECIP TYPE,
AND SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...NOT REALLY WILD SWINGS WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS
AFTER INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS LIMITED
BY COOL AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT SUNSHINE, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LIMITED BY SAME CLOUD COVER. HIGHS 40S/50S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CLEAR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND WIND TOWARD MORNING. THE MAIN FEATURE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD IS WIND BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
STRENGTHENING 09-12Z TIMEFRAME. FROM 12-18Z MONDAY EXPECT WINDS
15-25 KTS AND GUSTS 25-35 KTS. WITH SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE DOWNSLOPE ON WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NW
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AFTER 15Z AND SPREAD RAIN WEST TO EAST WITH CIGS/VIS
REMAINING VFR. LEFT LLWS OUT OF THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE IN PACE WITH WINDS ALOFT AND ABOUT A 20 KT DIFFERENTIAL,
BELOW THE LLWS CRITERIA. HOWEVER WILL BE A BUMPY CLIMB OUT AND
APPROACH 12-18Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN AREA TO LIFT NORTHEAST DURING
THE PERIOD WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN RUTLAND. LLWS
POSSIBLE.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY
VFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY SOME
SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWER MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES..KMPV/KSLK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KALY 191748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN COOL...DAMP...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. WE WILL BEGIN
THE WEEK WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. HAVE
SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING IN WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS RIDGING OVER REGION GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SPAWN A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

AN IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRENGTHEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INVADE ALONG WITH AN INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ISSUE WILL BE MID LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN THE PLAN
VIEW AND FORECAST BUFR PROFILES WHICH WILL HOLD BACK THE ONSET OF
THE PRECIP INITIALLY. SO THE LOWER POPS WILL BE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS EXPECTED WEST OF THE HUDSON.
FURTHERMORE...THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET AT OR ABOVE 50KTS
EVOLVES WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRISK CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES AND WET BULB PROCESSES FOR THE DACKS MAY SEE
SOME A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

THIS SOUTHEAST WIND PER THE WIND ANOMALIES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
/4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WHICH MAY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS ON MONDAY. AS SEEN IN
MANY PREVIOUS CASES...THIS REGION WILL LIKELY SEE ENHANCED
RAINFALL BUT PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE ANALYSIS...THIS FEATURE WILL
BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE LIMITING SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS. FOR THE REST
OF THE REGION...A SOGGY DAY IS EXPECTED. WHERE BREAKS IN THE
PRECIP OCCUR.

THE STRONG EAS-SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD RESULT IN ENHANCED WIND
MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE BERKS AND TACONICS AND WESTERN GREENS. SO
HAVE ADDED MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS AREA
THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED.

A LITTLE DRY SLOT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EARLY EVENING AS THE MAIN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ADVECTION SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A MORE DYNAMIC DRIVEN
UPPER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION. THE
DIFFERENCE THIS TIME WILL BE A LITTLE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS DROPPING BACK AT
OR BELOW 0C FOR MOST OF THE REGION. IN COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND SPC...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...THAT WAVE PASSES QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST LEAVING OUR
REGION WELL WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW YET MOST OF THE LIFT/DYNAMICS
ARE UPSTREAM OF THE REGION. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL FALL GENERALLY BETWEEN
55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH SETTLES IN
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US.

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A CUTOFF LOW WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SLOWLY SITTING AND SPINNING IN
PLACE. OUR REGION LOOKS TO BE IN A BREAK FROM THE LARGE SCALE LIFT
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH ONLY LOWS
POPS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...TEMPS LOOKS COOL FOR TUES NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS
ON WED WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...AS THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SFC COLD
FRONT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PIECE OF VORTICITY
SWINGING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW FOR WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. A BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT ROTATES ACROSS OUR
AREA FOR LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. BEHIND THIS RAINFALL...TEMPS LOOK
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS FOR WED NIGHT WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
PARTS OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RATHER LOW WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARBY...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
FALL AS LOW AS -7 DEGREES C FOR NORTHERN AREAS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS WET SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS LIQUID...AS
ANY PRECIP WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND WON/T BE FALLING
HARD ENOUGH TO COOL THE COLUMN DOWN FULLY IN VALLEY AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS FOR THURS THROUGH SAT LOOK MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S...AND
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
 VFR CONDITIONS WILL START
THE TAF PERIOD AND BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL
CHANGE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTH OVER MICHIGAN AS WE GO INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS A SLOW PROGRESSING WARM
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN FOR ALL TAF SITES WILL BE
AFTER 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BE
STEADY AT TIMES. WHERE BREAKS IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY OCCURS...WIND
GUSTS COULD BE RATHER GUSTY....ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. VSBYS
AND CEILINGS WILL DECREASE AS WE GO PAST 12Z TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER
20 KNOTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAINES INDEX TODAY AT 5 TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND LESS WIND
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 20-30
PERCENT.

CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS/RAIN ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
THE DAY MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 60 AND
90 PERCENT TONIGHT.

A RAINY DAY SETTING UP FOR MONDAY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FIRE
WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS. IN FACT...RATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PROBABILITY FOR HYDROLOGY RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PER THE LATEST QPF/S...BASIN AVERAGES AROUND ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED
WITH UP TO ONE AND ONE-HALF INCHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MMEFS SUGGESTS A COUPLE POINTS MAY
APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED MINOR FLOOD STAGE...GILBOA AND
HINCKLEY DAMS.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT IN THE
ABOVE AREAS...MAY RESULT IN WITHIN BANK RISES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 191748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN COOL...DAMP...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. WE WILL BEGIN
THE WEEK WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. HAVE
SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING IN WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS RIDGING OVER REGION GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SPAWN A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

AN IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRENGTHEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INVADE ALONG WITH AN INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ISSUE WILL BE MID LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN THE PLAN
VIEW AND FORECAST BUFR PROFILES WHICH WILL HOLD BACK THE ONSET OF
THE PRECIP INITIALLY. SO THE LOWER POPS WILL BE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS EXPECTED WEST OF THE HUDSON.
FURTHERMORE...THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET AT OR ABOVE 50KTS
EVOLVES WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRISK CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES AND WET BULB PROCESSES FOR THE DACKS MAY SEE
SOME A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

THIS SOUTHEAST WIND PER THE WIND ANOMALIES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
/4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WHICH MAY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS ON MONDAY. AS SEEN IN
MANY PREVIOUS CASES...THIS REGION WILL LIKELY SEE ENHANCED
RAINFALL BUT PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE ANALYSIS...THIS FEATURE WILL
BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE LIMITING SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS. FOR THE REST
OF THE REGION...A SOGGY DAY IS EXPECTED. WHERE BREAKS IN THE
PRECIP OCCUR.

THE STRONG EAS-SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD RESULT IN ENHANCED WIND
MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE BERKS AND TACONICS AND WESTERN GREENS. SO
HAVE ADDED MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS AREA
THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED.

A LITTLE DRY SLOT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EARLY EVENING AS THE MAIN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ADVECTION SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A MORE DYNAMIC DRIVEN
UPPER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION. THE
DIFFERENCE THIS TIME WILL BE A LITTLE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS DROPPING BACK AT
OR BELOW 0C FOR MOST OF THE REGION. IN COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND SPC...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...THAT WAVE PASSES QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST LEAVING OUR
REGION WELL WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW YET MOST OF THE LIFT/DYNAMICS
ARE UPSTREAM OF THE REGION. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL FALL GENERALLY BETWEEN
55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH SETTLES IN
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US.

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A CUTOFF LOW WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SLOWLY SITTING AND SPINNING IN
PLACE. OUR REGION LOOKS TO BE IN A BREAK FROM THE LARGE SCALE LIFT
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH ONLY LOWS
POPS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...TEMPS LOOKS COOL FOR TUES NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS
ON WED WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...AS THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SFC COLD
FRONT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PIECE OF VORTICITY
SWINGING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW FOR WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. A BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT ROTATES ACROSS OUR
AREA FOR LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. BEHIND THIS RAINFALL...TEMPS LOOK
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS FOR WED NIGHT WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
PARTS OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RATHER LOW WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARBY...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
FALL AS LOW AS -7 DEGREES C FOR NORTHERN AREAS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS WET SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS LIQUID...AS
ANY PRECIP WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND WON/T BE FALLING
HARD ENOUGH TO COOL THE COLUMN DOWN FULLY IN VALLEY AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS FOR THURS THROUGH SAT LOOK MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S...AND
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
 VFR CONDITIONS WILL START
THE TAF PERIOD AND BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL
CHANGE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTH OVER MICHIGAN AS WE GO INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS A SLOW PROGRESSING WARM
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN FOR ALL TAF SITES WILL BE
AFTER 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BE
STEADY AT TIMES. WHERE BREAKS IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY OCCURS...WIND
GUSTS COULD BE RATHER GUSTY....ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. VSBYS
AND CEILINGS WILL DECREASE AS WE GO PAST 12Z TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER
20 KNOTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAINES INDEX TODAY AT 5 TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND LESS WIND
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 20-30
PERCENT.

CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS/RAIN ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
THE DAY MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 60 AND
90 PERCENT TONIGHT.

A RAINY DAY SETTING UP FOR MONDAY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FIRE
WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS. IN FACT...RATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PROBABILITY FOR HYDROLOGY RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PER THE LATEST QPF/S...BASIN AVERAGES AROUND ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED
WITH UP TO ONE AND ONE-HALF INCHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MMEFS SUGGESTS A COUPLE POINTS MAY
APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED MINOR FLOOD STAGE...GILBOA AND
HINCKLEY DAMS.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT IN THE
ABOVE AREAS...MAY RESULT IN WITHIN BANK RISES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 191748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN COOL...DAMP...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. WE WILL BEGIN
THE WEEK WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. HAVE
SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING IN WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS RIDGING OVER REGION GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SPAWN A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

AN IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRENGTHEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INVADE ALONG WITH AN INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ISSUE WILL BE MID LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN THE PLAN
VIEW AND FORECAST BUFR PROFILES WHICH WILL HOLD BACK THE ONSET OF
THE PRECIP INITIALLY. SO THE LOWER POPS WILL BE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS EXPECTED WEST OF THE HUDSON.
FURTHERMORE...THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET AT OR ABOVE 50KTS
EVOLVES WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRISK CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES AND WET BULB PROCESSES FOR THE DACKS MAY SEE
SOME A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

THIS SOUTHEAST WIND PER THE WIND ANOMALIES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
/4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WHICH MAY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS ON MONDAY. AS SEEN IN
MANY PREVIOUS CASES...THIS REGION WILL LIKELY SEE ENHANCED
RAINFALL BUT PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE ANALYSIS...THIS FEATURE WILL
BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE LIMITING SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS. FOR THE REST
OF THE REGION...A SOGGY DAY IS EXPECTED. WHERE BREAKS IN THE
PRECIP OCCUR.

THE STRONG EAS-SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD RESULT IN ENHANCED WIND
MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE BERKS AND TACONICS AND WESTERN GREENS. SO
HAVE ADDED MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS AREA
THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED.

A LITTLE DRY SLOT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EARLY EVENING AS THE MAIN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ADVECTION SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A MORE DYNAMIC DRIVEN
UPPER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION. THE
DIFFERENCE THIS TIME WILL BE A LITTLE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS DROPPING BACK AT
OR BELOW 0C FOR MOST OF THE REGION. IN COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND SPC...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...THAT WAVE PASSES QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST LEAVING OUR
REGION WELL WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW YET MOST OF THE LIFT/DYNAMICS
ARE UPSTREAM OF THE REGION. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL FALL GENERALLY BETWEEN
55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH SETTLES IN
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US.

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A CUTOFF LOW WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SLOWLY SITTING AND SPINNING IN
PLACE. OUR REGION LOOKS TO BE IN A BREAK FROM THE LARGE SCALE LIFT
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH ONLY LOWS
POPS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...TEMPS LOOKS COOL FOR TUES NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS
ON WED WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...AS THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SFC COLD
FRONT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PIECE OF VORTICITY
SWINGING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW FOR WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. A BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT ROTATES ACROSS OUR
AREA FOR LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. BEHIND THIS RAINFALL...TEMPS LOOK
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS FOR WED NIGHT WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
PARTS OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RATHER LOW WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARBY...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
FALL AS LOW AS -7 DEGREES C FOR NORTHERN AREAS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS WET SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS LIQUID...AS
ANY PRECIP WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND WON/T BE FALLING
HARD ENOUGH TO COOL THE COLUMN DOWN FULLY IN VALLEY AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS FOR THURS THROUGH SAT LOOK MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S...AND
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
 VFR CONDITIONS WILL START
THE TAF PERIOD AND BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL
CHANGE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTH OVER MICHIGAN AS WE GO INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS A SLOW PROGRESSING WARM
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN FOR ALL TAF SITES WILL BE
AFTER 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BE
STEADY AT TIMES. WHERE BREAKS IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY OCCURS...WIND
GUSTS COULD BE RATHER GUSTY....ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. VSBYS
AND CEILINGS WILL DECREASE AS WE GO PAST 12Z TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER
20 KNOTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAINES INDEX TODAY AT 5 TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND LESS WIND
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 20-30
PERCENT.

CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS/RAIN ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
THE DAY MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 60 AND
90 PERCENT TONIGHT.

A RAINY DAY SETTING UP FOR MONDAY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FIRE
WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS. IN FACT...RATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PROBABILITY FOR HYDROLOGY RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PER THE LATEST QPF/S...BASIN AVERAGES AROUND ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED
WITH UP TO ONE AND ONE-HALF INCHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MMEFS SUGGESTS A COUPLE POINTS MAY
APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED MINOR FLOOD STAGE...GILBOA AND
HINCKLEY DAMS.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT IN THE
ABOVE AREAS...MAY RESULT IN WITHIN BANK RISES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 191748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN COOL...DAMP...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. WE WILL BEGIN
THE WEEK WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. HAVE
SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING IN WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS RIDGING OVER REGION GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SPAWN A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

AN IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRENGTHEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INVADE ALONG WITH AN INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ISSUE WILL BE MID LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN THE PLAN
VIEW AND FORECAST BUFR PROFILES WHICH WILL HOLD BACK THE ONSET OF
THE PRECIP INITIALLY. SO THE LOWER POPS WILL BE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS EXPECTED WEST OF THE HUDSON.
FURTHERMORE...THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET AT OR ABOVE 50KTS
EVOLVES WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRISK CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES AND WET BULB PROCESSES FOR THE DACKS MAY SEE
SOME A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

THIS SOUTHEAST WIND PER THE WIND ANOMALIES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
/4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WHICH MAY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS ON MONDAY. AS SEEN IN
MANY PREVIOUS CASES...THIS REGION WILL LIKELY SEE ENHANCED
RAINFALL BUT PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE ANALYSIS...THIS FEATURE WILL
BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE LIMITING SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS. FOR THE REST
OF THE REGION...A SOGGY DAY IS EXPECTED. WHERE BREAKS IN THE
PRECIP OCCUR.

THE STRONG EAS-SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD RESULT IN ENHANCED WIND
MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE BERKS AND TACONICS AND WESTERN GREENS. SO
HAVE ADDED MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS AREA
THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED.

A LITTLE DRY SLOT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EARLY EVENING AS THE MAIN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ADVECTION SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A MORE DYNAMIC DRIVEN
UPPER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION. THE
DIFFERENCE THIS TIME WILL BE A LITTLE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS DROPPING BACK AT
OR BELOW 0C FOR MOST OF THE REGION. IN COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND SPC...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...THAT WAVE PASSES QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST LEAVING OUR
REGION WELL WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW YET MOST OF THE LIFT/DYNAMICS
ARE UPSTREAM OF THE REGION. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL FALL GENERALLY BETWEEN
55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH SETTLES IN
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US.

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A CUTOFF LOW WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SLOWLY SITTING AND SPINNING IN
PLACE. OUR REGION LOOKS TO BE IN A BREAK FROM THE LARGE SCALE LIFT
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH ONLY LOWS
POPS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...TEMPS LOOKS COOL FOR TUES NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS
ON WED WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...AS THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SFC COLD
FRONT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PIECE OF VORTICITY
SWINGING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW FOR WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. A BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT ROTATES ACROSS OUR
AREA FOR LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. BEHIND THIS RAINFALL...TEMPS LOOK
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS FOR WED NIGHT WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
PARTS OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RATHER LOW WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARBY...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
FALL AS LOW AS -7 DEGREES C FOR NORTHERN AREAS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS WET SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS LIQUID...AS
ANY PRECIP WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND WON/T BE FALLING
HARD ENOUGH TO COOL THE COLUMN DOWN FULLY IN VALLEY AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS FOR THURS THROUGH SAT LOOK MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S...AND
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
 VFR CONDITIONS WILL START
THE TAF PERIOD AND BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL
CHANGE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTH OVER MICHIGAN AS WE GO INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS A SLOW PROGRESSING WARM
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN FOR ALL TAF SITES WILL BE
AFTER 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL BE
STEADY AT TIMES. WHERE BREAKS IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY OCCURS...WIND
GUSTS COULD BE RATHER GUSTY....ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. VSBYS
AND CEILINGS WILL DECREASE AS WE GO PAST 12Z TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER
20 KNOTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAINES INDEX TODAY AT 5 TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND LESS WIND
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 20-30
PERCENT.

CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS/RAIN ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
THE DAY MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 60 AND
90 PERCENT TONIGHT.

A RAINY DAY SETTING UP FOR MONDAY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FIRE
WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS. IN FACT...RATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PROBABILITY FOR HYDROLOGY RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PER THE LATEST QPF/S...BASIN AVERAGES AROUND ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED
WITH UP TO ONE AND ONE-HALF INCHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MMEFS SUGGESTS A COUPLE POINTS MAY
APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED MINOR FLOOD STAGE...GILBOA AND
HINCKLEY DAMS.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT IN THE
ABOVE AREAS...MAY RESULT IN WITHIN BANK RISES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 191740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
140 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE
LAST NICE DAY WE SEE FOR AWHILE UNFORTUNATELY, AS A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1027 AM EDT SUNDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR 1030
AM UPDATE THIS MORNING. REFRESHED FIRST FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND INTERPOLATE OUT. AS EXPECTED CLOUDS ARE
DISSIPATING THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS LIKE SUNNY
SKIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BETTER GET OUT THERE AND ENJOY TODAY
BECAUSE IT MIGHT BE THE LAST ONE LIKE THIS FOR AWHILE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WE`RE STILL SEEING SOME PESKY
LOW STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING FROM CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF
THE NOVA SCOTIA COASTLINE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE TO
CLEARER SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. 925-850MB TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY SO DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT THEN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND
TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE SURFACE LOW TAKES
SHAPE, A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND TRAVERSE THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING
MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT
CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN
ADDITION, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL MATERIALIZE ALONG
THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL 4KM WRF SHOWS A STRONG
925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING WITH THE LATEST RUN INDICATING 50-60KTS AT 925MB OVER THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL OF THESE WINDS WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AT WE`LL SEE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH WHICH WOULD WARRANT A
WIND ADVISORY. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND ALLOW FURTHER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS, BUT IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT`S IN THE CARDS.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SPC SREF CALIBRATED TS PROGS SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANTICIPATE IT WILL TURN OUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH JUST A
HANDFUL OF STRIKES, NOTHING REALLY TO WORRY ABOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL
CONSISTENCY OBSERVED BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. QUASI-
STATIONARY...EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES AND ONTARIO WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT EWD...REACHING OUR AREA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY PIVOT NEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL
QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGGED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE SRN/SERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL BRING OUR MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS
ORGANIZED...AND POTENTIALLY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE (850MB TEMPS - 6
TO -8C THURSDAY NIGHT...AND -4 TO -6C FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAY SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HRS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS.
DAYTIME HIGHS WED-FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 50S ON WED...AND
LOW-MID 50S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID-UPR 30S TUESDAY NIGHT...TO THE LOW-MID 30S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOCALLY IN THE UPPER 20S ABOVE
1500 FEET. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...AS
UPPER LOW SHIFTS NWD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN COOL THERMAL REGIME...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CLEAR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND WIND TOWARD MORNING. THE MAIN FEATURE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD IS WIND BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
STRENGTHENING 09-12Z TIMEFRAME. FROM 12-18Z MONDAY EXPECT WINDS
15-25 KTS AND GUSTS 25-35 KTS. WITH SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE DOWNSLOPE ON WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NW
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AFTER 15Z AND SPREAD RAIN WEST TO EAST WITH CIGS/VIS
REMAINING VFR. LEFT LLWS OUT OF THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE IN PACE WITH WINDS ALOFT AND ABOUT A 20 KT DIFFERENTIAL,
BELOW THE LLWS CRITERIA. HOWEVER WILL BE A BUMPY CLIMB OUT AND
APPROACH 12-18Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN AREA TO LIFT NORTHEAST DURING
THE PERIOD WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN RUTLAND. LLWS
POSSIBLE.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY
VFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY SOME
SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWER MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES..KMPV/KSLK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 191740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
140 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE
LAST NICE DAY WE SEE FOR AWHILE UNFORTUNATELY, AS A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1027 AM EDT SUNDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR 1030
AM UPDATE THIS MORNING. REFRESHED FIRST FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND INTERPOLATE OUT. AS EXPECTED CLOUDS ARE
DISSIPATING THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS LIKE SUNNY
SKIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BETTER GET OUT THERE AND ENJOY TODAY
BECAUSE IT MIGHT BE THE LAST ONE LIKE THIS FOR AWHILE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WE`RE STILL SEEING SOME PESKY
LOW STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING FROM CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF
THE NOVA SCOTIA COASTLINE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE TO
CLEARER SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. 925-850MB TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY SO DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT THEN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND
TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE SURFACE LOW TAKES
SHAPE, A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND TRAVERSE THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING
MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT
CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN
ADDITION, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL MATERIALIZE ALONG
THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL 4KM WRF SHOWS A STRONG
925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING WITH THE LATEST RUN INDICATING 50-60KTS AT 925MB OVER THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL OF THESE WINDS WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AT WE`LL SEE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH WHICH WOULD WARRANT A
WIND ADVISORY. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND ALLOW FURTHER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS, BUT IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT`S IN THE CARDS.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SPC SREF CALIBRATED TS PROGS SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANTICIPATE IT WILL TURN OUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH JUST A
HANDFUL OF STRIKES, NOTHING REALLY TO WORRY ABOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL
CONSISTENCY OBSERVED BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. QUASI-
STATIONARY...EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES AND ONTARIO WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT EWD...REACHING OUR AREA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY PIVOT NEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL
QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGGED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE SRN/SERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL BRING OUR MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS
ORGANIZED...AND POTENTIALLY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE (850MB TEMPS - 6
TO -8C THURSDAY NIGHT...AND -4 TO -6C FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAY SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HRS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS.
DAYTIME HIGHS WED-FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 50S ON WED...AND
LOW-MID 50S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID-UPR 30S TUESDAY NIGHT...TO THE LOW-MID 30S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOCALLY IN THE UPPER 20S ABOVE
1500 FEET. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...AS
UPPER LOW SHIFTS NWD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN COOL THERMAL REGIME...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CLEAR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND WIND TOWARD MORNING. THE MAIN FEATURE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD IS WIND BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
STRENGTHENING 09-12Z TIMEFRAME. FROM 12-18Z MONDAY EXPECT WINDS
15-25 KTS AND GUSTS 25-35 KTS. WITH SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE DOWNSLOPE ON WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NW
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AFTER 15Z AND SPREAD RAIN WEST TO EAST WITH CIGS/VIS
REMAINING VFR. LEFT LLWS OUT OF THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE IN PACE WITH WINDS ALOFT AND ABOUT A 20 KT DIFFERENTIAL,
BELOW THE LLWS CRITERIA. HOWEVER WILL BE A BUMPY CLIMB OUT AND
APPROACH 12-18Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN AREA TO LIFT NORTHEAST DURING
THE PERIOD WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN RUTLAND. LLWS
POSSIBLE.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY
VFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY SOME
SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWER MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES..KMPV/KSLK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 191740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
140 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE
LAST NICE DAY WE SEE FOR AWHILE UNFORTUNATELY, AS A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1027 AM EDT SUNDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR 1030
AM UPDATE THIS MORNING. REFRESHED FIRST FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND INTERPOLATE OUT. AS EXPECTED CLOUDS ARE
DISSIPATING THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS LIKE SUNNY
SKIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BETTER GET OUT THERE AND ENJOY TODAY
BECAUSE IT MIGHT BE THE LAST ONE LIKE THIS FOR AWHILE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WE`RE STILL SEEING SOME PESKY
LOW STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING FROM CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF
THE NOVA SCOTIA COASTLINE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE TO
CLEARER SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. 925-850MB TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY SO DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT THEN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND
TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE SURFACE LOW TAKES
SHAPE, A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND TRAVERSE THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING
MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT
CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN
ADDITION, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL MATERIALIZE ALONG
THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL 4KM WRF SHOWS A STRONG
925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING WITH THE LATEST RUN INDICATING 50-60KTS AT 925MB OVER THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL OF THESE WINDS WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AT WE`LL SEE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH WHICH WOULD WARRANT A
WIND ADVISORY. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND ALLOW FURTHER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS, BUT IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT`S IN THE CARDS.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SPC SREF CALIBRATED TS PROGS SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANTICIPATE IT WILL TURN OUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH JUST A
HANDFUL OF STRIKES, NOTHING REALLY TO WORRY ABOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL
CONSISTENCY OBSERVED BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. QUASI-
STATIONARY...EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES AND ONTARIO WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT EWD...REACHING OUR AREA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY PIVOT NEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL
QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGGED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE SRN/SERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL BRING OUR MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS
ORGANIZED...AND POTENTIALLY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE (850MB TEMPS - 6
TO -8C THURSDAY NIGHT...AND -4 TO -6C FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAY SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HRS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS.
DAYTIME HIGHS WED-FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 50S ON WED...AND
LOW-MID 50S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID-UPR 30S TUESDAY NIGHT...TO THE LOW-MID 30S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOCALLY IN THE UPPER 20S ABOVE
1500 FEET. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...AS
UPPER LOW SHIFTS NWD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN COOL THERMAL REGIME...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CLEAR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND WIND TOWARD MORNING. THE MAIN FEATURE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD IS WIND BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
STRENGTHENING 09-12Z TIMEFRAME. FROM 12-18Z MONDAY EXPECT WINDS
15-25 KTS AND GUSTS 25-35 KTS. WITH SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE DOWNSLOPE ON WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NW
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AFTER 15Z AND SPREAD RAIN WEST TO EAST WITH CIGS/VIS
REMAINING VFR. LEFT LLWS OUT OF THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE IN PACE WITH WINDS ALOFT AND ABOUT A 20 KT DIFFERENTIAL,
BELOW THE LLWS CRITERIA. HOWEVER WILL BE A BUMPY CLIMB OUT AND
APPROACH 12-18Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN AREA TO LIFT NORTHEAST DURING
THE PERIOD WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN RUTLAND. LLWS
POSSIBLE.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY
VFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY SOME
SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWER MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES..KMPV/KSLK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 191740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
140 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE
LAST NICE DAY WE SEE FOR AWHILE UNFORTUNATELY, AS A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1027 AM EDT SUNDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR 1030
AM UPDATE THIS MORNING. REFRESHED FIRST FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND INTERPOLATE OUT. AS EXPECTED CLOUDS ARE
DISSIPATING THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS LIKE SUNNY
SKIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BETTER GET OUT THERE AND ENJOY TODAY
BECAUSE IT MIGHT BE THE LAST ONE LIKE THIS FOR AWHILE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WE`RE STILL SEEING SOME PESKY
LOW STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING FROM CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF
THE NOVA SCOTIA COASTLINE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE TO
CLEARER SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. 925-850MB TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY SO DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT THEN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND
TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE SURFACE LOW TAKES
SHAPE, A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND TRAVERSE THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING
MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT
CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN
ADDITION, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL MATERIALIZE ALONG
THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL 4KM WRF SHOWS A STRONG
925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING WITH THE LATEST RUN INDICATING 50-60KTS AT 925MB OVER THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL OF THESE WINDS WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AT WE`LL SEE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH WHICH WOULD WARRANT A
WIND ADVISORY. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND ALLOW FURTHER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS, BUT IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT`S IN THE CARDS.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SPC SREF CALIBRATED TS PROGS SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANTICIPATE IT WILL TURN OUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH JUST A
HANDFUL OF STRIKES, NOTHING REALLY TO WORRY ABOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL
CONSISTENCY OBSERVED BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. QUASI-
STATIONARY...EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES AND ONTARIO WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT EWD...REACHING OUR AREA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY PIVOT NEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL
QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGGED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE SRN/SERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL BRING OUR MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS
ORGANIZED...AND POTENTIALLY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE (850MB TEMPS - 6
TO -8C THURSDAY NIGHT...AND -4 TO -6C FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAY SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HRS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS.
DAYTIME HIGHS WED-FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 50S ON WED...AND
LOW-MID 50S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID-UPR 30S TUESDAY NIGHT...TO THE LOW-MID 30S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOCALLY IN THE UPPER 20S ABOVE
1500 FEET. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...AS
UPPER LOW SHIFTS NWD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN COOL THERMAL REGIME...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CLEAR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND WIND TOWARD MORNING. THE MAIN FEATURE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD IS WIND BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
STRENGTHENING 09-12Z TIMEFRAME. FROM 12-18Z MONDAY EXPECT WINDS
15-25 KTS AND GUSTS 25-35 KTS. WITH SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE DOWNSLOPE ON WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NW
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AFTER 15Z AND SPREAD RAIN WEST TO EAST WITH CIGS/VIS
REMAINING VFR. LEFT LLWS OUT OF THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE IN PACE WITH WINDS ALOFT AND ABOUT A 20 KT DIFFERENTIAL,
BELOW THE LLWS CRITERIA. HOWEVER WILL BE A BUMPY CLIMB OUT AND
APPROACH 12-18Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN AREA TO LIFT NORTHEAST DURING
THE PERIOD WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN RUTLAND. LLWS
POSSIBLE.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY
VFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY SOME
SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWER MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES..KMPV/KSLK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 191430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE
LAST NICE DAY WE SEE FOR AWHILE UNFORTUNATELY, AS A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1027 AM EDT SUNDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR 1030
AM UPDATE THIS MORNING. REFRESHED FIRST FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND INTERPOLATE OUT. AS EXPECTED CLOUDS ARE
DISSIPATING THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS LIKE SUNNY
SKIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BETTER GET OUT THERE AND ENJOY TODAY
BECAUSE IT MIGHT BE THE LAST ONE LIKE THIS FOR AWHILE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WE`RE STILL SEEING SOME PESKY
LOW STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING FROM CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF
THE NOVA SCOTIA COASTLINE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE TO
CLEARER SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. 925-850MB TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY SO DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT THEN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND
TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE SURFACE LOW TAKES
SHAPE, A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND TRAVERSE THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING
MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT
CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN
ADDITION, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL MATERIALIZE ALONG
THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL 4KM WRF SHOWS A STRONG
925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING WITH THE LATEST RUN INDICATING 50-60KTS AT 925MB OVER THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL OF THESE WINDS WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AT WE`LL SEE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH WHICH WOULD WARRANT A
WIND ADVISORY. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND ALLOW FURTHER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS, BUT IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT`S IN THE CARDS.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SPC SREF CALIBRATED TS PROGS SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANTICIPATE IT WILL TURN OUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH JUST A
HANDFUL OF STRIKES, NOTHING REALLY TO WORRY ABOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL
CONSISTENCY OBSERVED BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. QUASI-
STATIONARY...EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES AND ONTARIO WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT EWD...REACHING OUR AREA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY PIVOT NEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL
QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGGED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE SRN/SERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL BRING OUR MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS
ORGANIZED...AND POTENTIALLY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE (850MB TEMPS - 6
TO -8C THURSDAY NIGHT...AND -4 TO -6C FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAY SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HRS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS.
DAYTIME HIGHS WED-FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 50S ON WED...AND
LOW-MID 50S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID-UPR 30S TUESDAY NIGHT...TO THE LOW-MID 30S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOCALLY IN THE UPPER 20S ABOVE
1500 FEET. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...AS
UPPER LOW SHIFTS NWD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN COOL THERMAL REGIME...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN-OVC035-045 LAYER
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT (INCLUDING BTV/MPV) WILL ERODE 12-14Z
LEAVING MAINLY SKC FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. WILL SEE SOME
CIRRUS CLOUDS (SCT-BKN250) ADVANCE FROM SW-NE AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY ALTOSTRATUS LAYER (BKN-OVC120-150) TOWARD
09-12Z MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY NORTH 5-10 KTS...BECG LIGHT SE (5
KTS OR LESS) TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY SE 10-13KTS AT RUT AFTER
02Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS PERIODS OF
MVFR AND IFR RAINFALL W/ HIR TRRN OBSCD. LEADING WARM FRONT WILL
BRING FIRST FRONTAL RAIN BAND INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY
MORNING. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS FROM THE SSE...AND
BRIEFLY UP TO 40 KTS AT KRUT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. LLWS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SECOND BAND OF RAIN MOVES
IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD THRU
MUCH - IF NOT ALL - OF THE PERIOD.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 191430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE
LAST NICE DAY WE SEE FOR AWHILE UNFORTUNATELY, AS A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1027 AM EDT SUNDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR 1030
AM UPDATE THIS MORNING. REFRESHED FIRST FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND INTERPOLATE OUT. AS EXPECTED CLOUDS ARE
DISSIPATING THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS LIKE SUNNY
SKIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BETTER GET OUT THERE AND ENJOY TODAY
BECAUSE IT MIGHT BE THE LAST ONE LIKE THIS FOR AWHILE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WE`RE STILL SEEING SOME PESKY
LOW STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING FROM CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF
THE NOVA SCOTIA COASTLINE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE TO
CLEARER SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. 925-850MB TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY SO DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT THEN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND
TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE SURFACE LOW TAKES
SHAPE, A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND TRAVERSE THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING
MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT
CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN
ADDITION, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL MATERIALIZE ALONG
THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL 4KM WRF SHOWS A STRONG
925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING WITH THE LATEST RUN INDICATING 50-60KTS AT 925MB OVER THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL OF THESE WINDS WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AT WE`LL SEE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH WHICH WOULD WARRANT A
WIND ADVISORY. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND ALLOW FURTHER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS, BUT IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT`S IN THE CARDS.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SPC SREF CALIBRATED TS PROGS SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANTICIPATE IT WILL TURN OUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH JUST A
HANDFUL OF STRIKES, NOTHING REALLY TO WORRY ABOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL
CONSISTENCY OBSERVED BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. QUASI-
STATIONARY...EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES AND ONTARIO WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT EWD...REACHING OUR AREA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY PIVOT NEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL
QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGGED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE SRN/SERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL BRING OUR MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS
ORGANIZED...AND POTENTIALLY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE (850MB TEMPS - 6
TO -8C THURSDAY NIGHT...AND -4 TO -6C FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAY SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HRS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS.
DAYTIME HIGHS WED-FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 50S ON WED...AND
LOW-MID 50S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID-UPR 30S TUESDAY NIGHT...TO THE LOW-MID 30S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOCALLY IN THE UPPER 20S ABOVE
1500 FEET. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...AS
UPPER LOW SHIFTS NWD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN COOL THERMAL REGIME...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN-OVC035-045 LAYER
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT (INCLUDING BTV/MPV) WILL ERODE 12-14Z
LEAVING MAINLY SKC FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. WILL SEE SOME
CIRRUS CLOUDS (SCT-BKN250) ADVANCE FROM SW-NE AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY ALTOSTRATUS LAYER (BKN-OVC120-150) TOWARD
09-12Z MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY NORTH 5-10 KTS...BECG LIGHT SE (5
KTS OR LESS) TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY SE 10-13KTS AT RUT AFTER
02Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS PERIODS OF
MVFR AND IFR RAINFALL W/ HIR TRRN OBSCD. LEADING WARM FRONT WILL
BRING FIRST FRONTAL RAIN BAND INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY
MORNING. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS FROM THE SSE...AND
BRIEFLY UP TO 40 KTS AT KRUT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. LLWS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SECOND BAND OF RAIN MOVES
IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD THRU
MUCH - IF NOT ALL - OF THE PERIOD.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KALY 191410
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1010 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN COOL...DAMP...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. WE WILL BEGIN
THE WEEK WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM...HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS.
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PESKY STRATUS DECK ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS HAS BEEN ERODING
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISIPATE. THE
CANOPY OF THIN CI/CS ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER REMAINS WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF A NORTHWARD EXPANSION THROUGH TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...1030MB...WILL
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. SOME STRATUS WAS ATTEMPTING
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND MAY IMPORT PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN GREENS. MEANWHILE...A
SCT-BKN CANOPY OF THIN CI/CS WAS DRAPED ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE STRATUS DECK TO BREAK UP AND MIX OUT WITH
THE ADVANCING OF THE CI/CS THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM
THAT PER THE H2O VAPOR LOOP WAS ABOUT TO PHASE WITH THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS THOSE OBSERVED ON
SATURDAY /AND NOT AS WINDY/ WITH MAINLY LOWER HALF OF THE 60S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SPAWN A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

AN IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRENGTHEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INVADE ALONG WITH AN INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ISSUE WILL BE MID LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN THE PLAN
VIEW AND FORECAST BUFR PROFILES WHICH WILL HOLD BACK THE ONSET OF
THE PRECIP INITIALLY. SO THE LOWER POPS WILL BE EAST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS EXPECTED WEST OF THE
HUDSON. FURTHERMORE...THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET AT OR ABOVE
50KTS EVOLVES WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRISK CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES AND WET BULB PROCESSES FOR THE DACKS
MAY SEE SOME A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS SOUTHEAST WIND PER THE WIND ANOMALIES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
/4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WHICH MAY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS ON MONDAY. AS SEEN IN
MANY PREVIOUS CASES...THIS REGION WILL LIKELY SEE ENHANCED
RAINFALL BUT PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE ANALYSIS...THIS FEATURE WILL
BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE LIMITING SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS. FOR THE REST
OF THE REGION...A SOGGY DAY IS EXPECTED. WHERE BREAKS IN THE
PRECIP OCCUR...THOSE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD RESULT IN
ENHANCED WIND MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE BERKS AND TACONICS AND WESTERN
GREENS.

A LITTLE DRY SLOT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EARLY EVENING AS THE MAIN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ADVECTION SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A MORE DYNAMIC DRIVEN
UPPER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION. THE
DIFFERENCE THIS TIME WILL BE A LITTLE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS DROPPING BACK AT
OR BELOW 0C FOR MOST OF THE REGION. IN COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND SPC...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...THAT WAVE PASSES QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST LEAVING OUR
REGION WELL WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW YET MOST OF THE LIFT/DYNAMICS
ARE UPSTREAM OF THE REGION. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL FALL GENERALLY BETWEEN
55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH SETTLES IN
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US.

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A CUTOFF LOW WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SLOWLY SITTING AND SPINNING IN
PLACE. OUR REGION LOOKS TO BE IN A BREAK FROM THE LARGE SCALE LIFT
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH ONLY LOWS
POPS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...TEMPS LOOKS COOL FOR TUES NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS
ON WED WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...AS THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SFC COLD
FRONT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PIECE OF VORTICITY
SWINGING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW FOR WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. A BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT ROTATES ACROSS OUR
AREA FOR LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. BEHIND THIS RAINFALL...TEMPS LOOK
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS FOR WED NIGHT WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
PARTS OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RATHER LOW WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARBY...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
FALL AS LOW AS -7 DEGREES C FOR NORTHERN AREAS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS WET SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS LIQUID...AS
ANY PRECIP WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND WON/T BE FALLING
HARD ENOUGH TO COOL THE COLUMN DOWN FULLY IN VALLEY AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS FOR THURS THROUGH SAT LOOK MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S...AND
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN
HOURS...SCT THIN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL START TO EXPAND INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND LOWER THIS EVENING...WITH BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 8-10 KFT WILL ARRIVE BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KPOU/KPSF BY
AROUND 10Z. SOME LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARDS
SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH MVFR VSBYS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. A STEADY AND HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING...BUT LOOK TO
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR DURING THE DAY
TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTN FOR THIS TO
OCCUR...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES. SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY TO BE LIGHT...THOUGH...BASICALLY AROUND 5 KTS
FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS LOOK TO BE S-SE BY THIS EVENING AT 5-10
KTS...BUT MAY START TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAINES INDEX TODAY AT 5 TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND LESS WIND
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 20-30
PERCENT.

CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS/RAIN ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
THE DAY MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 60 AND
90 PERCENT TONIGHT.

A RAINY DAY SETTING UP FOR MONDAY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FIRE
WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS. IN FACT...RATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PROBABILITY FOR HYDROLOGY RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PER THE LATEST QPF/S...BASIN AVERAGES AROUND ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED
WITH UP TO ONE AND ONE-HALF INCHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MMEFS SUGGESTS A COUPLE POINTS MAY
APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED MINOR FLOOD STAGE...GILBOA AND
HINCKLEY DAMS.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT IN THE
ABOVE AREAS...MAY RESULT IN WITHIN BANK RISES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 191410
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1010 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN COOL...DAMP...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. WE WILL BEGIN
THE WEEK WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM...HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS.
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PESKY STRATUS DECK ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS HAS BEEN ERODING
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISIPATE. THE
CANOPY OF THIN CI/CS ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER REMAINS WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF A NORTHWARD EXPANSION THROUGH TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...1030MB...WILL
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. SOME STRATUS WAS ATTEMPTING
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND MAY IMPORT PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN GREENS. MEANWHILE...A
SCT-BKN CANOPY OF THIN CI/CS WAS DRAPED ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE STRATUS DECK TO BREAK UP AND MIX OUT WITH
THE ADVANCING OF THE CI/CS THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM
THAT PER THE H2O VAPOR LOOP WAS ABOUT TO PHASE WITH THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS THOSE OBSERVED ON
SATURDAY /AND NOT AS WINDY/ WITH MAINLY LOWER HALF OF THE 60S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SPAWN A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

AN IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRENGTHEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INVADE ALONG WITH AN INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ISSUE WILL BE MID LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN THE PLAN
VIEW AND FORECAST BUFR PROFILES WHICH WILL HOLD BACK THE ONSET OF
THE PRECIP INITIALLY. SO THE LOWER POPS WILL BE EAST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS EXPECTED WEST OF THE
HUDSON. FURTHERMORE...THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET AT OR ABOVE
50KTS EVOLVES WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRISK CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES AND WET BULB PROCESSES FOR THE DACKS
MAY SEE SOME A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS SOUTHEAST WIND PER THE WIND ANOMALIES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
/4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WHICH MAY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS ON MONDAY. AS SEEN IN
MANY PREVIOUS CASES...THIS REGION WILL LIKELY SEE ENHANCED
RAINFALL BUT PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE ANALYSIS...THIS FEATURE WILL
BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE LIMITING SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS. FOR THE REST
OF THE REGION...A SOGGY DAY IS EXPECTED. WHERE BREAKS IN THE
PRECIP OCCUR...THOSE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD RESULT IN
ENHANCED WIND MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE BERKS AND TACONICS AND WESTERN
GREENS.

A LITTLE DRY SLOT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EARLY EVENING AS THE MAIN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ADVECTION SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A MORE DYNAMIC DRIVEN
UPPER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION. THE
DIFFERENCE THIS TIME WILL BE A LITTLE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS DROPPING BACK AT
OR BELOW 0C FOR MOST OF THE REGION. IN COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND SPC...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...THAT WAVE PASSES QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST LEAVING OUR
REGION WELL WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW YET MOST OF THE LIFT/DYNAMICS
ARE UPSTREAM OF THE REGION. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL FALL GENERALLY BETWEEN
55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH SETTLES IN
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US.

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A CUTOFF LOW WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SLOWLY SITTING AND SPINNING IN
PLACE. OUR REGION LOOKS TO BE IN A BREAK FROM THE LARGE SCALE LIFT
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH ONLY LOWS
POPS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...TEMPS LOOKS COOL FOR TUES NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS
ON WED WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...AS THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SFC COLD
FRONT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PIECE OF VORTICITY
SWINGING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW FOR WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. A BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT ROTATES ACROSS OUR
AREA FOR LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. BEHIND THIS RAINFALL...TEMPS LOOK
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS FOR WED NIGHT WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
PARTS OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RATHER LOW WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARBY...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
FALL AS LOW AS -7 DEGREES C FOR NORTHERN AREAS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS WET SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS LIQUID...AS
ANY PRECIP WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND WON/T BE FALLING
HARD ENOUGH TO COOL THE COLUMN DOWN FULLY IN VALLEY AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS FOR THURS THROUGH SAT LOOK MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S...AND
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN
HOURS...SCT THIN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL START TO EXPAND INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND LOWER THIS EVENING...WITH BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 8-10 KFT WILL ARRIVE BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KPOU/KPSF BY
AROUND 10Z. SOME LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARDS
SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH MVFR VSBYS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. A STEADY AND HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING...BUT LOOK TO
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR DURING THE DAY
TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTN FOR THIS TO
OCCUR...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES. SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY TO BE LIGHT...THOUGH...BASICALLY AROUND 5 KTS
FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS LOOK TO BE S-SE BY THIS EVENING AT 5-10
KTS...BUT MAY START TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAINES INDEX TODAY AT 5 TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND LESS WIND
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 20-30
PERCENT.

CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS/RAIN ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
THE DAY MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 60 AND
90 PERCENT TONIGHT.

A RAINY DAY SETTING UP FOR MONDAY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FIRE
WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS. IN FACT...RATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PROBABILITY FOR HYDROLOGY RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PER THE LATEST QPF/S...BASIN AVERAGES AROUND ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED
WITH UP TO ONE AND ONE-HALF INCHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MMEFS SUGGESTS A COUPLE POINTS MAY
APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED MINOR FLOOD STAGE...GILBOA AND
HINCKLEY DAMS.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT IN THE
ABOVE AREAS...MAY RESULT IN WITHIN BANK RISES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 191126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE LAST
NICE DAY WE SEE FOR AWHILE UNFORTUNATELY, AS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 652 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR THIS
STUBBORN CLOUD COVER WHICH WON`T GO AWAY! FEEL AS THE SUN COMES UP
AND WE CAN BEGIN TO MIX DOWN SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND TREND TOWARDS JUST A FEW INCREASING CIRRUS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BETTER GET OUT THERE AND ENJOY TODAY
BECAUSE IT MIGHT BE THE LAST ONE LIKE THIS FOR AWHILE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WE`RE STILL SEEING SOME PESKY
LOW STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING FROM CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF
THE NOVA SCOTIA COASTLINE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE TO
CLEARER SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. 925-850MB TEMPS ARE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY SO DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT THEN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND
TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE SURFACE LOW TAKES
SHAPE, A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND TRAVERSE THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING
MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT
CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN
ADDITION, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL MATERIALIZE ALONG
THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL 4KM WRF SHOWS A STRONG
925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING WITH THE LATEST RUN INDICATING 50-60KTS AT 925MB OVER THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL OF THESE WINDS WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AT WE`LL SEE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH WHICH WOULD WARRANT A
WIND ADVISORY. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND ALLOW FURTHER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS, BUT IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT`S IN THE CARDS.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SPC SREF CALIBRATED TS PROGS SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANTICIPATE IT WILL TURN OUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH JUST A
HANDFUL OF STRIKES, NOTHING REALLY TO WORRY ABOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. GOOD RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY OBSERVED
BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. QUASI-STATIONARY...EQUIVALENT
BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WILL
VERY SLOWLY DRIFT EWD...REACHING OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY PIVOT NEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...AND THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE SRN/SERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
BRING OUR MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES DURING WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS
ORGANIZED...AND POTENTIALLY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE (850MB TEMPS - 6
TO -8C THURSDAY NIGHT...AND -4 TO -6C FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAY SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HRS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS.
DAYTIME HIGHS WED-FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 50S ON WED...AND
LOW-MID 50S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID-UPR 30S TUESDAY NIGHT...TO THE LOW-MID 30S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOCALLY IN THE UPPER 20S ABOVE
1500 FEET. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...AS
UPPER LOW SHIFTS NWD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN COOL THERMAL REGIME...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN-OVC035-045 LAYER
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT (INCLUDING BTV/MPV) WILL ERODE 12-14Z
LEAVING MAINLY SKC FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. WILL SEE SOME
CIRRUS CLOUDS (SCT-BKN250) ADVANCE FROM SW-NE AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY ALTOSTRATUS LAYER (BKN-OVC120-150) TOWARD
09-12Z MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY NORTH 5-10 KTS...BECG LIGHT SE (5
KTS OR LESS) TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY SE 10-13KTS AT RUT AFTER 02Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS PERIODS OF MVFR
AND IFR RAINFALL W/ HIR TRRN OBSCD. LEADING WARM FRONT WILL BRING
FIRST FRONTAL RAIN BAND INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY MORNING.
MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS FROM THE SSE...AND BRIEFLY UP TO
40 KTS AT KRUT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SECOND BAND OF RAIN MOVES IN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD THRU MUCH - IF NOT
ALL - OF THE PERIOD.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 191126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE LAST
NICE DAY WE SEE FOR AWHILE UNFORTUNATELY, AS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 652 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR THIS
STUBBORN CLOUD COVER WHICH WON`T GO AWAY! FEEL AS THE SUN COMES UP
AND WE CAN BEGIN TO MIX DOWN SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND TREND TOWARDS JUST A FEW INCREASING CIRRUS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BETTER GET OUT THERE AND ENJOY TODAY
BECAUSE IT MIGHT BE THE LAST ONE LIKE THIS FOR AWHILE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WE`RE STILL SEEING SOME PESKY
LOW STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING FROM CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF
THE NOVA SCOTIA COASTLINE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE TO
CLEARER SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. 925-850MB TEMPS ARE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY SO DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT THEN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND
TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE SURFACE LOW TAKES
SHAPE, A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND TRAVERSE THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING
MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT
CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN
ADDITION, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL MATERIALIZE ALONG
THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL 4KM WRF SHOWS A STRONG
925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING WITH THE LATEST RUN INDICATING 50-60KTS AT 925MB OVER THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL OF THESE WINDS WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AT WE`LL SEE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH WHICH WOULD WARRANT A
WIND ADVISORY. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND ALLOW FURTHER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS, BUT IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT`S IN THE CARDS.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SPC SREF CALIBRATED TS PROGS SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANTICIPATE IT WILL TURN OUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH JUST A
HANDFUL OF STRIKES, NOTHING REALLY TO WORRY ABOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. GOOD RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY OBSERVED
BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. QUASI-STATIONARY...EQUIVALENT
BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WILL
VERY SLOWLY DRIFT EWD...REACHING OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY PIVOT NEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...AND THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE SRN/SERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
BRING OUR MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES DURING WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS
ORGANIZED...AND POTENTIALLY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE (850MB TEMPS - 6
TO -8C THURSDAY NIGHT...AND -4 TO -6C FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAY SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HRS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS.
DAYTIME HIGHS WED-FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 50S ON WED...AND
LOW-MID 50S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID-UPR 30S TUESDAY NIGHT...TO THE LOW-MID 30S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOCALLY IN THE UPPER 20S ABOVE
1500 FEET. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...AS
UPPER LOW SHIFTS NWD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN COOL THERMAL REGIME...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN-OVC035-045 LAYER
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT (INCLUDING BTV/MPV) WILL ERODE 12-14Z
LEAVING MAINLY SKC FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. WILL SEE SOME
CIRRUS CLOUDS (SCT-BKN250) ADVANCE FROM SW-NE AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY ALTOSTRATUS LAYER (BKN-OVC120-150) TOWARD
09-12Z MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY NORTH 5-10 KTS...BECG LIGHT SE (5
KTS OR LESS) TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY SE 10-13KTS AT RUT AFTER 02Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS PERIODS OF MVFR
AND IFR RAINFALL W/ HIR TRRN OBSCD. LEADING WARM FRONT WILL BRING
FIRST FRONTAL RAIN BAND INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY MORNING.
MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS FROM THE SSE...AND BRIEFLY UP TO
40 KTS AT KRUT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SECOND BAND OF RAIN MOVES IN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD THRU MUCH - IF NOT
ALL - OF THE PERIOD.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 191126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE LAST
NICE DAY WE SEE FOR AWHILE UNFORTUNATELY, AS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 652 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR THIS
STUBBORN CLOUD COVER WHICH WON`T GO AWAY! FEEL AS THE SUN COMES UP
AND WE CAN BEGIN TO MIX DOWN SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND TREND TOWARDS JUST A FEW INCREASING CIRRUS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BETTER GET OUT THERE AND ENJOY TODAY
BECAUSE IT MIGHT BE THE LAST ONE LIKE THIS FOR AWHILE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WE`RE STILL SEEING SOME PESKY
LOW STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING FROM CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF
THE NOVA SCOTIA COASTLINE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE TO
CLEARER SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. 925-850MB TEMPS ARE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY SO DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT THEN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND
TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE SURFACE LOW TAKES
SHAPE, A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND TRAVERSE THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING
MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT
CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN
ADDITION, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL MATERIALIZE ALONG
THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL 4KM WRF SHOWS A STRONG
925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING WITH THE LATEST RUN INDICATING 50-60KTS AT 925MB OVER THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL OF THESE WINDS WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AT WE`LL SEE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH WHICH WOULD WARRANT A
WIND ADVISORY. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND ALLOW FURTHER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS, BUT IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT`S IN THE CARDS.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SPC SREF CALIBRATED TS PROGS SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANTICIPATE IT WILL TURN OUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH JUST A
HANDFUL OF STRIKES, NOTHING REALLY TO WORRY ABOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. GOOD RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY OBSERVED
BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. QUASI-STATIONARY...EQUIVALENT
BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WILL
VERY SLOWLY DRIFT EWD...REACHING OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY PIVOT NEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...AND THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE SRN/SERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
BRING OUR MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES DURING WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS
ORGANIZED...AND POTENTIALLY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE (850MB TEMPS - 6
TO -8C THURSDAY NIGHT...AND -4 TO -6C FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAY SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HRS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS.
DAYTIME HIGHS WED-FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 50S ON WED...AND
LOW-MID 50S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID-UPR 30S TUESDAY NIGHT...TO THE LOW-MID 30S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOCALLY IN THE UPPER 20S ABOVE
1500 FEET. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...AS
UPPER LOW SHIFTS NWD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN COOL THERMAL REGIME...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN-OVC035-045 LAYER
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT (INCLUDING BTV/MPV) WILL ERODE 12-14Z
LEAVING MAINLY SKC FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. WILL SEE SOME
CIRRUS CLOUDS (SCT-BKN250) ADVANCE FROM SW-NE AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY ALTOSTRATUS LAYER (BKN-OVC120-150) TOWARD
09-12Z MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY NORTH 5-10 KTS...BECG LIGHT SE (5
KTS OR LESS) TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY SE 10-13KTS AT RUT AFTER 02Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS PERIODS OF MVFR
AND IFR RAINFALL W/ HIR TRRN OBSCD. LEADING WARM FRONT WILL BRING
FIRST FRONTAL RAIN BAND INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY MORNING.
MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS FROM THE SSE...AND BRIEFLY UP TO
40 KTS AT KRUT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SECOND BAND OF RAIN MOVES IN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD THRU MUCH - IF NOT
ALL - OF THE PERIOD.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 191126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE LAST
NICE DAY WE SEE FOR AWHILE UNFORTUNATELY, AS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 652 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR THIS
STUBBORN CLOUD COVER WHICH WON`T GO AWAY! FEEL AS THE SUN COMES UP
AND WE CAN BEGIN TO MIX DOWN SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND TREND TOWARDS JUST A FEW INCREASING CIRRUS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BETTER GET OUT THERE AND ENJOY TODAY
BECAUSE IT MIGHT BE THE LAST ONE LIKE THIS FOR AWHILE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WE`RE STILL SEEING SOME PESKY
LOW STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING FROM CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF
THE NOVA SCOTIA COASTLINE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE TO
CLEARER SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. 925-850MB TEMPS ARE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY SO DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT THEN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND
TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE SURFACE LOW TAKES
SHAPE, A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND TRAVERSE THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING
MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT
CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN
ADDITION, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL MATERIALIZE ALONG
THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL 4KM WRF SHOWS A STRONG
925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING WITH THE LATEST RUN INDICATING 50-60KTS AT 925MB OVER THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL OF THESE WINDS WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AT WE`LL SEE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH WHICH WOULD WARRANT A
WIND ADVISORY. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND ALLOW FURTHER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS, BUT IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT`S IN THE CARDS.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SPC SREF CALIBRATED TS PROGS SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANTICIPATE IT WILL TURN OUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH JUST A
HANDFUL OF STRIKES, NOTHING REALLY TO WORRY ABOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. GOOD RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY OBSERVED
BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. QUASI-STATIONARY...EQUIVALENT
BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WILL
VERY SLOWLY DRIFT EWD...REACHING OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY PIVOT NEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...AND THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE SRN/SERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
BRING OUR MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES DURING WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS
ORGANIZED...AND POTENTIALLY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE (850MB TEMPS - 6
TO -8C THURSDAY NIGHT...AND -4 TO -6C FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAY SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HRS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS.
DAYTIME HIGHS WED-FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 50S ON WED...AND
LOW-MID 50S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID-UPR 30S TUESDAY NIGHT...TO THE LOW-MID 30S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOCALLY IN THE UPPER 20S ABOVE
1500 FEET. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...AS
UPPER LOW SHIFTS NWD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN COOL THERMAL REGIME...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN-OVC035-045 LAYER
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT (INCLUDING BTV/MPV) WILL ERODE 12-14Z
LEAVING MAINLY SKC FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. WILL SEE SOME
CIRRUS CLOUDS (SCT-BKN250) ADVANCE FROM SW-NE AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY ALTOSTRATUS LAYER (BKN-OVC120-150) TOWARD
09-12Z MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY NORTH 5-10 KTS...BECG LIGHT SE (5
KTS OR LESS) TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY SE 10-13KTS AT RUT AFTER 02Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS PERIODS OF MVFR
AND IFR RAINFALL W/ HIR TRRN OBSCD. LEADING WARM FRONT WILL BRING
FIRST FRONTAL RAIN BAND INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY MORNING.
MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS FROM THE SSE...AND BRIEFLY UP TO
40 KTS AT KRUT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SECOND BAND OF RAIN MOVES IN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD THRU MUCH - IF NOT
ALL - OF THE PERIOD.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 191126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE LAST
NICE DAY WE SEE FOR AWHILE UNFORTUNATELY, AS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 652 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR THIS
STUBBORN CLOUD COVER WHICH WON`T GO AWAY! FEEL AS THE SUN COMES UP
AND WE CAN BEGIN TO MIX DOWN SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND TREND TOWARDS JUST A FEW INCREASING CIRRUS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BETTER GET OUT THERE AND ENJOY TODAY
BECAUSE IT MIGHT BE THE LAST ONE LIKE THIS FOR AWHILE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WE`RE STILL SEEING SOME PESKY
LOW STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING FROM CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF
THE NOVA SCOTIA COASTLINE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE TO
CLEARER SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. 925-850MB TEMPS ARE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY SO DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT THEN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND
TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE SURFACE LOW TAKES
SHAPE, A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND TRAVERSE THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING
MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT
CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN
ADDITION, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL MATERIALIZE ALONG
THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL 4KM WRF SHOWS A STRONG
925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING WITH THE LATEST RUN INDICATING 50-60KTS AT 925MB OVER THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL OF THESE WINDS WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AT WE`LL SEE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH WHICH WOULD WARRANT A
WIND ADVISORY. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND ALLOW FURTHER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS, BUT IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT`S IN THE CARDS.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SPC SREF CALIBRATED TS PROGS SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANTICIPATE IT WILL TURN OUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH JUST A
HANDFUL OF STRIKES, NOTHING REALLY TO WORRY ABOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. GOOD RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY OBSERVED
BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. QUASI-STATIONARY...EQUIVALENT
BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WILL
VERY SLOWLY DRIFT EWD...REACHING OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY PIVOT NEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...AND THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE SRN/SERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
BRING OUR MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES DURING WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS
ORGANIZED...AND POTENTIALLY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE (850MB TEMPS - 6
TO -8C THURSDAY NIGHT...AND -4 TO -6C FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAY SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HRS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS.
DAYTIME HIGHS WED-FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 50S ON WED...AND
LOW-MID 50S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID-UPR 30S TUESDAY NIGHT...TO THE LOW-MID 30S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOCALLY IN THE UPPER 20S ABOVE
1500 FEET. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...AS
UPPER LOW SHIFTS NWD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN COOL THERMAL REGIME...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN-OVC035-045 LAYER
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT (INCLUDING BTV/MPV) WILL ERODE 12-14Z
LEAVING MAINLY SKC FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. WILL SEE SOME
CIRRUS CLOUDS (SCT-BKN250) ADVANCE FROM SW-NE AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY ALTOSTRATUS LAYER (BKN-OVC120-150) TOWARD
09-12Z MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY NORTH 5-10 KTS...BECG LIGHT SE (5
KTS OR LESS) TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY SE 10-13KTS AT RUT AFTER 02Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS PERIODS OF MVFR
AND IFR RAINFALL W/ HIR TRRN OBSCD. LEADING WARM FRONT WILL BRING
FIRST FRONTAL RAIN BAND INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY MORNING.
MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS FROM THE SSE...AND BRIEFLY UP TO
40 KTS AT KRUT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SECOND BAND OF RAIN MOVES IN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD THRU MUCH - IF NOT
ALL - OF THE PERIOD.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 191052
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
652 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE LAST
NICE DAY WE SEE FOR AWHILE UNFORTUNATELY, AS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 652 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR THIS
STUBBORN CLOUD COVER WHICH WON`T GO AWAY! FEEL AS THE SUN COMES UP
AND WE CAN BEGIN TO MIX DOWN SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND TREND TOWARDS JUST A FEW INCREASING CIRRUS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BETTER GET OUT THERE AND ENJOY TODAY
BECAUSE IT MIGHT BE THE LAST ONE LIKE THIS FOR AWHILE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WE`RE STILL SEEING SOME PESKY
LOW STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT
THIS MORNING FROM CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF
THE NOVA SCOTIA COASTLINE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE TO
CLEARER SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. 925-850MB TEMPS ARE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY SO DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT THEN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND
TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE SURFACE LOW TAKES
SHAPE, A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND TRAVERSE THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING
MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT
CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN
ADDITION, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL MATERIALIZE ALONG
THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL 4KM WRF SHOWS A STRONG
925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING WITH THE LATEST RUN INDICATING 50-60KTS AT 925MB OVER THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL OF THESE WINDS WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AT WE`LL SEE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH WHICH WOULD WARRANT A
WIND ADVISORY. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND ALLOW FURTHER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS, BUT IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT`S IN THE CARDS.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SPC SREF CALIBRATED TS PROGS SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANTICIPATE IT WILL TURN OUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH JUST A
HANDFUL OF STRIKES, NOTHING REALLY TO WORRY ABOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. GOOD RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY OBSERVED
BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. QUASI-STATIONARY...EQUIVALENT
BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WILL
VERY SLOWLY DRIFT EWD...REACHING OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY PIVOT NEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...AND THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE SRN/SERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
BRING OUR MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES DURING WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS
ORGANIZED...AND POTENTIALLY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE (850MB TEMPS - 6
TO -8C THURSDAY NIGHT...AND -4 TO -6C FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAY SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HRS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS.
DAYTIME HIGHS WED-FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 50S ON WED...AND
LOW-MID 50S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID-UPR 30S TUESDAY NIGHT...TO THE LOW-MID 30S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOCALLY IN THE UPPER 20S ABOVE
1500 FEET. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...AS
UPPER LOW SHIFTS NWD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN COOL THERMAL REGIME...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN-OVC035-040 LAYER
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT (INCLUDING BTV/MPV) WILL ERODE DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN HRS...LEAVING SKC THRU THE DAY. WILL SEE
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS (SCT-BKN250) ADVANCE FROM SW-NE AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY NORTH 5-10 KTS...BECG LIGHT SE (5 KTS OR
LESS) TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY SE 10-13KTS AT RUT AFTER 01Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS PERIODS OF MVFR
AND IFR RAINFALL. LEADING WARM FRONT WILL BRING FIRST FRONTAL
RAIN BAND INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY MORNING. MODERATELY
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS FROM THE SSE...AND LLWS DURING
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECOND BAND OF RAIN MOVES IN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD THRU MUCH - IF NOT
ALL - OF THE PERIOD.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KALY 191031
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TRANQUIL AND A BIT COOLER DAY SETTING UP FOR THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN COOL...DAMP...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. WE WILL BEGIN
THE WEEK WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 620 AM EDT...PESKY STRATUS DECK ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS
SHOULD ERODE NOW WITH SUNRISE UNDERWAY. THE CANOPY OF CI/CS ALONG
THE NY/PA BORDER REMAINS WITH EXPECTATIONS OF A NORTHWARD
EXPANSION THROUGH TODAY. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS BELOW...

SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...1030MB...WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. SOME
STRATUS WAS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND
MAY IMPORT PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREENS. MEANWHILE...A SCT-BKN CANOPY OF THIN CI/CS WAS DRAPED ALONG
THE NY/PA BORDER. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE STRATUS DECK TO BREAK
UP AND MIX OUT WITH THE ADVANCING OF THE CI/CS THROUGH THE DAY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM THAT PER THE H2O VAPOR LOOP WAS ABOUT TO
PHASE WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DIGGING
TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE AS WARM
AS THOSE OBSERVED ON SATURDAY /AND NOT AS WINDY/ WITH MAINLY LOWER
HALF OF THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SPAWN A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

AN IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRENGTHEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INVADE ALONG WITH AN INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ISSUE WILL BE MID LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN THE PLAN
VIEW AND FORECAST BUFR PROFILES WHICH WILL HOLD BACK THE ONSET OF
THE PRECIP INITIALLY. SO THE LOWER POPS WILL BE EAST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS EXPECTED WEST OF THE
HUDSON. FURTHERMORE...THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET AT OR ABOVE
50KTS EVOLVES WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRISK CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES AND WET BULB PROCESSES FOR THE DACKS
MAY SEE SOME A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS SOUTHEAST WIND PER THE WIND ANOMALIES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
/4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WHICH MAY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS ON MONDAY. AS SEEN IN
MANY PREVIOUS CASES...THIS REGION WILL LIKELY SEE ENHANCED
RAINFALL BUT PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE ANALYSIS...THIS FEATURE WILL
BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE LIMITING SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS. FOR THE REST
OF THE REGION...A SOGGY DAY IS EXPECTED. WHERE BREAKS IN THE
PRECIP OCCUR...THOSE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD RESULT IN
ENHANCED WIND MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE BERKS AND TACONICS AND WESTERN
GREENS.

A LITTLE DRY SLOT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EARLY EVENING AS THE MAIN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ADVECTION SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A MORE DYNAMIC DRIVEN
UPPER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION. THE
DIFFERENCE THIS TIME WILL BE A LITTLE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS DROPPING BACK AT
OR BELOW 0C FOR MOST OF THE REGION. IN COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND SPC...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...THAT WAVE PASSES QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST LEAVING OUR
REGION WELL WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW YET MOST OF THE LIFT/DYNAMICS
ARE UPSTREAM OF THE REGION. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL FALL GENERALLY BETWEEN
55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH SETTLES IN
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US.

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A CUTOFF LOW WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SLOWLY SITTING AND SPINNING IN
PLACE. OUR REGION LOOKS TO BE IN A BREAK FROM THE LARGE SCALE LIFT
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH ONLY LOWS
POPS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...TEMPS LOOKS COOL FOR TUES NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS
ON WED WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...AS THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SFC COLD
FRONT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PIECE OF VORTICITY
SWINGING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW FOR WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. A BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT ROTATES ACROSS OUR
AREA FOR LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. BEHIND THIS RAINFALL...TEMPS LOOK
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS FOR WED NIGHT WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
PARTS OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RATHER LOW WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARBY...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
FALL AS LOW AS -7 DEGREES C FOR NORTHERN AREAS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS WET SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS LIQUID...AS
ANY PRECIP WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND WON/T BE FALLING
HARD ENOUGH TO COOL THE COLUMN DOWN FULLY IN VALLEY AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS FOR THURS THROUGH SAT LOOK MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S...AND
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN
HOURS...SCT THIN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL START TO EXPAND INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND LOWER THIS EVENING...WITH BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 8-10 KFT WILL ARRIVE BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KPOU/KPSF BY
AROUND 10Z. SOME LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARDS
SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH MVFR VSBYS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. A STEADY AND HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING...BUT LOOK TO
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR DURING THE DAY
TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTN FOR THIS TO
OCCUR...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES. SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY TO BE LIGHT...THOUGH...BASICALLY AROUND 5 KTS
FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS LOOK TO BE S-SE BY THIS EVENING AT 5-10
KTS...BUT MAY START TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAINES INDEX TODAY AT 5 TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND LESS WIND
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 20-30
PERCENT.

CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS/RAIN ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
THE DAY MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 60 AND
90 PERCENT TONIGHT.

A RAINY DAY SETTING UP FOR MONDAY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FIRE
WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS. IN FACT...RATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PROBABILITY FOR HYDROLOGY RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PER THE LATEST QPF/S...BASIN AVERAGES AROUND ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED
WITH UP TO ONE AND ONE-HALF INCHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MMEFS SUGGESTS A COUPLE POINTS MAY
APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED MINOR FLOOD STAGE...GILBOA AND
HINCKLEY DAMS.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT IN THE
ABOVE AREAS...MAY RESULT IN WITHIN BANK RISES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 191031
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TRANQUIL AND A BIT COOLER DAY SETTING UP FOR THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN COOL...DAMP...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. WE WILL BEGIN
THE WEEK WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 620 AM EDT...PESKY STRATUS DECK ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS
SHOULD ERODE NOW WITH SUNRISE UNDERWAY. THE CANOPY OF CI/CS ALONG
THE NY/PA BORDER REMAINS WITH EXPECTATIONS OF A NORTHWARD
EXPANSION THROUGH TODAY. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS BELOW...

SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...1030MB...WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. SOME
STRATUS WAS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND
MAY IMPORT PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREENS. MEANWHILE...A SCT-BKN CANOPY OF THIN CI/CS WAS DRAPED ALONG
THE NY/PA BORDER. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE STRATUS DECK TO BREAK
UP AND MIX OUT WITH THE ADVANCING OF THE CI/CS THROUGH THE DAY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM THAT PER THE H2O VAPOR LOOP WAS ABOUT TO
PHASE WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DIGGING
TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE AS WARM
AS THOSE OBSERVED ON SATURDAY /AND NOT AS WINDY/ WITH MAINLY LOWER
HALF OF THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SPAWN A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

AN IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRENGTHEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INVADE ALONG WITH AN INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ISSUE WILL BE MID LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN THE PLAN
VIEW AND FORECAST BUFR PROFILES WHICH WILL HOLD BACK THE ONSET OF
THE PRECIP INITIALLY. SO THE LOWER POPS WILL BE EAST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS EXPECTED WEST OF THE
HUDSON. FURTHERMORE...THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET AT OR ABOVE
50KTS EVOLVES WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRISK CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES AND WET BULB PROCESSES FOR THE DACKS
MAY SEE SOME A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS SOUTHEAST WIND PER THE WIND ANOMALIES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
/4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WHICH MAY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS ON MONDAY. AS SEEN IN
MANY PREVIOUS CASES...THIS REGION WILL LIKELY SEE ENHANCED
RAINFALL BUT PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE ANALYSIS...THIS FEATURE WILL
BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE LIMITING SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS. FOR THE REST
OF THE REGION...A SOGGY DAY IS EXPECTED. WHERE BREAKS IN THE
PRECIP OCCUR...THOSE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD RESULT IN
ENHANCED WIND MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE BERKS AND TACONICS AND WESTERN
GREENS.

A LITTLE DRY SLOT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EARLY EVENING AS THE MAIN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ADVECTION SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A MORE DYNAMIC DRIVEN
UPPER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION. THE
DIFFERENCE THIS TIME WILL BE A LITTLE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS DROPPING BACK AT
OR BELOW 0C FOR MOST OF THE REGION. IN COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND SPC...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...THAT WAVE PASSES QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST LEAVING OUR
REGION WELL WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW YET MOST OF THE LIFT/DYNAMICS
ARE UPSTREAM OF THE REGION. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL FALL GENERALLY BETWEEN
55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH SETTLES IN
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US.

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A CUTOFF LOW WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SLOWLY SITTING AND SPINNING IN
PLACE. OUR REGION LOOKS TO BE IN A BREAK FROM THE LARGE SCALE LIFT
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH ONLY LOWS
POPS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...TEMPS LOOKS COOL FOR TUES NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS
ON WED WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...AS THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SFC COLD
FRONT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PIECE OF VORTICITY
SWINGING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW FOR WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. A BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT ROTATES ACROSS OUR
AREA FOR LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. BEHIND THIS RAINFALL...TEMPS LOOK
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS FOR WED NIGHT WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
PARTS OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RATHER LOW WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARBY...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
FALL AS LOW AS -7 DEGREES C FOR NORTHERN AREAS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS WET SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS LIQUID...AS
ANY PRECIP WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND WON/T BE FALLING
HARD ENOUGH TO COOL THE COLUMN DOWN FULLY IN VALLEY AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS FOR THURS THROUGH SAT LOOK MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S...AND
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN
HOURS...SCT THIN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL START TO EXPAND INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND LOWER THIS EVENING...WITH BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 8-10 KFT WILL ARRIVE BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KPOU/KPSF BY
AROUND 10Z. SOME LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARDS
SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH MVFR VSBYS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. A STEADY AND HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING...BUT LOOK TO
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR DURING THE DAY
TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTN FOR THIS TO
OCCUR...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES. SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY TO BE LIGHT...THOUGH...BASICALLY AROUND 5 KTS
FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS LOOK TO BE S-SE BY THIS EVENING AT 5-10
KTS...BUT MAY START TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAINES INDEX TODAY AT 5 TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND LESS WIND
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 20-30
PERCENT.

CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS/RAIN ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
THE DAY MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 60 AND
90 PERCENT TONIGHT.

A RAINY DAY SETTING UP FOR MONDAY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FIRE
WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS. IN FACT...RATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PROBABILITY FOR HYDROLOGY RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PER THE LATEST QPF/S...BASIN AVERAGES AROUND ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED
WITH UP TO ONE AND ONE-HALF INCHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MMEFS SUGGESTS A COUPLE POINTS MAY
APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED MINOR FLOOD STAGE...GILBOA AND
HINCKLEY DAMS.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT IN THE
ABOVE AREAS...MAY RESULT IN WITHIN BANK RISES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 191031
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TRANQUIL AND A BIT COOLER DAY SETTING UP FOR THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN COOL...DAMP...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. WE WILL BEGIN
THE WEEK WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 620 AM EDT...PESKY STRATUS DECK ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS
SHOULD ERODE NOW WITH SUNRISE UNDERWAY. THE CANOPY OF CI/CS ALONG
THE NY/PA BORDER REMAINS WITH EXPECTATIONS OF A NORTHWARD
EXPANSION THROUGH TODAY. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS BELOW...

SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...1030MB...WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. SOME
STRATUS WAS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND
MAY IMPORT PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREENS. MEANWHILE...A SCT-BKN CANOPY OF THIN CI/CS WAS DRAPED ALONG
THE NY/PA BORDER. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE STRATUS DECK TO BREAK
UP AND MIX OUT WITH THE ADVANCING OF THE CI/CS THROUGH THE DAY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM THAT PER THE H2O VAPOR LOOP WAS ABOUT TO
PHASE WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DIGGING
TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE AS WARM
AS THOSE OBSERVED ON SATURDAY /AND NOT AS WINDY/ WITH MAINLY LOWER
HALF OF THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SPAWN A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

AN IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRENGTHEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INVADE ALONG WITH AN INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ISSUE WILL BE MID LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN THE PLAN
VIEW AND FORECAST BUFR PROFILES WHICH WILL HOLD BACK THE ONSET OF
THE PRECIP INITIALLY. SO THE LOWER POPS WILL BE EAST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS EXPECTED WEST OF THE
HUDSON. FURTHERMORE...THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET AT OR ABOVE
50KTS EVOLVES WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRISK CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES AND WET BULB PROCESSES FOR THE DACKS
MAY SEE SOME A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS SOUTHEAST WIND PER THE WIND ANOMALIES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
/4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WHICH MAY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS ON MONDAY. AS SEEN IN
MANY PREVIOUS CASES...THIS REGION WILL LIKELY SEE ENHANCED
RAINFALL BUT PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE ANALYSIS...THIS FEATURE WILL
BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE LIMITING SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS. FOR THE REST
OF THE REGION...A SOGGY DAY IS EXPECTED. WHERE BREAKS IN THE
PRECIP OCCUR...THOSE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD RESULT IN
ENHANCED WIND MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE BERKS AND TACONICS AND WESTERN
GREENS.

A LITTLE DRY SLOT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EARLY EVENING AS THE MAIN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ADVECTION SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A MORE DYNAMIC DRIVEN
UPPER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION. THE
DIFFERENCE THIS TIME WILL BE A LITTLE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS DROPPING BACK AT
OR BELOW 0C FOR MOST OF THE REGION. IN COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND SPC...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...THAT WAVE PASSES QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST LEAVING OUR
REGION WELL WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW YET MOST OF THE LIFT/DYNAMICS
ARE UPSTREAM OF THE REGION. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL FALL GENERALLY BETWEEN
55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH SETTLES IN
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US.

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A CUTOFF LOW WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SLOWLY SITTING AND SPINNING IN
PLACE. OUR REGION LOOKS TO BE IN A BREAK FROM THE LARGE SCALE LIFT
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH ONLY LOWS
POPS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...TEMPS LOOKS COOL FOR TUES NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS
ON WED WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...AS THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SFC COLD
FRONT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PIECE OF VORTICITY
SWINGING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW FOR WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. A BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT ROTATES ACROSS OUR
AREA FOR LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. BEHIND THIS RAINFALL...TEMPS LOOK
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS FOR WED NIGHT WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
PARTS OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RATHER LOW WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARBY...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
FALL AS LOW AS -7 DEGREES C FOR NORTHERN AREAS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS WET SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS LIQUID...AS
ANY PRECIP WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND WON/T BE FALLING
HARD ENOUGH TO COOL THE COLUMN DOWN FULLY IN VALLEY AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS FOR THURS THROUGH SAT LOOK MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S...AND
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN
HOURS...SCT THIN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL START TO EXPAND INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND LOWER THIS EVENING...WITH BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 8-10 KFT WILL ARRIVE BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KPOU/KPSF BY
AROUND 10Z. SOME LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARDS
SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH MVFR VSBYS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. A STEADY AND HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING...BUT LOOK TO
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR DURING THE DAY
TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTN FOR THIS TO
OCCUR...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES. SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY TO BE LIGHT...THOUGH...BASICALLY AROUND 5 KTS
FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS LOOK TO BE S-SE BY THIS EVENING AT 5-10
KTS...BUT MAY START TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAINES INDEX TODAY AT 5 TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND LESS WIND
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 20-30
PERCENT.

CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS/RAIN ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
THE DAY MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 60 AND
90 PERCENT TONIGHT.

A RAINY DAY SETTING UP FOR MONDAY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FIRE
WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS. IN FACT...RATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PROBABILITY FOR HYDROLOGY RELATED CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PER THE LATEST QPF/S...BASIN AVERAGES AROUND ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED
WITH UP TO ONE AND ONE-HALF INCHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MMEFS SUGGESTS A COUPLE POINTS MAY
APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED MINOR FLOOD STAGE...GILBOA AND
HINCKLEY DAMS.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT IN THE
ABOVE AREAS...MAY RESULT IN WITHIN BANK RISES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 191024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
624 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TRANQUIL AND A BIT COOLER DAY SETTING UP FOR THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN COOL...DAMP...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. WE WILL BEGIN
THE WEEK WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 620 AM EDT...PESKY STRATUS DECK ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS
SHOULD ERODE NOW WITH SUNRISE UNDERWAY. THE CANOPY OF CI/CS ALONG
THE NY/PA BORDER REMAINS WITH EXPECTATIONS OF A NORTHWARD
EXPANSION THROUGH TODAY. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS BELOW...

SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...1030MB...WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. SOME
STRATUS WAS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND
MAY IMPORT PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREENS. MEANWHILE...A SCT-BKN CANOPY OF THIN CI/CS WAS DRAPED ALONG
THE NY/PA BORDER. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE STRATUS DECK TO BREAK
UP AND MIX OUT WITH THE ADVANCING OF THE CI/CS THROUGH THE DAY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM THAT PER THE H2O VAPOR LOOP WAS ABOUT TO
PHASE WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DIGGING
TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE AS WARM
AS THOSE OBSERVED ON SATURDAY /AND NOT AS WINDY/ WITH MAINLY LOWER
HALF OF THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SPAWN A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

AN IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRENGTHEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INVADE ALONG WITH AN INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR
SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ISSUE WILL BE MID LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN THE PLAN
VIEW AND FORECAST BUFR PROFILES WHICH WILL HOLD BACK THE ONSET OF
THE PRECIP INITIALLY. SO THE LOWER POPS WILL BE EAST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS EXPECTED WEST OF THE
HUDSON. FURTHERMORE...THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET AT OR ABOVE
50KTS EVOLVES WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRISK CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES AND WET BULB PROCESSES FOR THE DACKS
MAY SEE SOME A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS SOUTHEAST WIND PER THE WIND ANOMALIES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
/4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WHICH MAY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS ON MONDAY. AS SEEN IN
MANY PREVIOUS CASES...THIS REGION WILL LIKELY SEE ENHANCED
RAINFALL BUT PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE ANALYSIS...THIS FEATURE WILL
BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE LIMITING SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS. FOR THE REST
OF THE REGION...A SOGGY DAY IS EXPECTED. WHERE BREAKS IN THE
PRECIP OCCUR...THOSE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD RESULT IN
ENHANCED WIND MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE BERKS AND TACONICS AND WESTERN
GREENS.

A LITTLE DRY SLOT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EARLY EVENING AS THE MAIN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ADVECTION SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A MORE DYNAMIC DRIVEN
UPPER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION. THE
DIFFERENCE THIS TIME WILL BE A LITTLE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS DROPPING BACK AT
OR BELOW 0C FOR MOST OF THE REGION. IN COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND SPC...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...THAT WAVE PASSES QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST LEAVING OUR
REGION WELL WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW YET MOST OF THE LIFT/DYNAMICS
ARE UPSTREAM OF THE REGION. WE WILL LOWER POPS TO THE CHANCE
CATE