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000
FXUS61 KBTV 291148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT FRIDAY...MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
AND ASSOCIATED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS NRN VT AND IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE THRU 15-16Z (PER RAP LOW-LEVEL RH
TRENDS) OWING TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND PBL MIXING...AND PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z WITH NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN LOW -
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LEANED TOWARD WARMER NAM-
MOS GUIDANCE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 72-76F RANGE. ALL IN ALL A
VERY PLEASANT DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES UNDER RESPLENDENT BLUE
SKIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING
EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHOULD
SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND
10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO
WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL
WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR-MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT
16Z BEFORE ALL SITES BECOME VFR WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IFR-LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL
EXIST AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR LIKE ALL OTHER SITES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 5 AM...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM
MARINE...TEAM BTV






000
FXUS61 KBTV 291148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT FRIDAY...MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
AND ASSOCIATED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS NRN VT AND IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE THRU 15-16Z (PER RAP LOW-LEVEL RH
TRENDS) OWING TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND PBL MIXING...AND PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z WITH NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN LOW -
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LEANED TOWARD WARMER NAM-
MOS GUIDANCE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 72-76F RANGE. ALL IN ALL A
VERY PLEASANT DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES UNDER RESPLENDENT BLUE
SKIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING
EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHOULD
SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND
10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO
WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL
WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR-MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT
16Z BEFORE ALL SITES BECOME VFR WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IFR-LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL
EXIST AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR LIKE ALL OTHER SITES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 5 AM...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM
MARINE...TEAM BTV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 291140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
AND ASSOCIATED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OWING TO INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE...AND PATCHY EARLY AM FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
12Z WITH NEAR FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN LOW - GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LEANED
TOWARD WARMER NAM- MOS GUIDANCE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 72-76F
RANGE. ALL IN ALL A VERY PLEASANT DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES UNDER
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING
EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHOULD
SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND
10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO
WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL
WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR-MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT
16Z BEFORE ALL SITES BECOME VFR WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IFR-LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL
EXIST AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR LIKE ALL OTHER SITES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 5 AM...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM
MARINE...TEAM BTV





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 291034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 634 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE...AND THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
YIELD SUNNIER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AFTER THE MORNING MIST/FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS DISSIPATES. A FEW- SCT FAIR WX CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.

H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +9C TO +11C RANGE AND WITH LIMITED MIXING
AND LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS THAN YESTERDAY...TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS. A FEW U70S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH VERY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER NICE LATE AUGUST EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SFC HIGH DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY
THE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM WITH SOME
RADITIONAL COOLING AGAIN. HOWEVER...SOME CIRRUS MAY APPROACH AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND A LIGHT S/SE BREEZE WILL INCREASE IN
THE CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW FROM
THE DEPARTING SFC ANTICYCLONE.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH A FEW U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION AND SRN VT. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED
WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEABOARD...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
DURING THE DAY. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AS H850 TEMPS NUDGE UP TO +14C TO +16C. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE TIMING ON THE ECMWF/GFS WAS FAVORED OVER THE NAM. THE
SHOWALTER VALUES ARE BARELY BELOW ZERO...AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MUCAPE WITH MAINLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG. MOST OF THE NIGHT MAY END
UP DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO FORM AND
MOVE UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE ON THE STICKY SIDE
WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES INTO THE FCST
AREA WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND THE COLD FRONT
SLIGHTLY DIPPING S/SE TOWARDS NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE MID
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST. THE
WEAK SHORT-WAVE INTERSECTS THE HUMID AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING MAY INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT HEAVY RAIN MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH SFC DEWPTS
RISING INTO THE M60S TO L70S. PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.50-2.0 INCHES
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES. THESE PWATS ARE A FEW STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS HAS SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG.
PARTS OF PA AND W-CNTRL NY GET CLOSE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET STREAK AT H250 LATE IN THE DAY. A PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER ERN NY AND WRN ENGLAND. AN H850
THETA-E RIDGE OF 332K TO 342K SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT BY 00Z/MON ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST GFS. WILL MENTION THE HVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION....HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE M70S TO L80S AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE DRIFTS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
THE SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TRI CITIES. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
U60S...EXCEPT SOME L60S OVER THE MTNS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...TO KEEP THE UNSETTLED WX
GOING INTO THE LATTER THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE  FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON MONDAY EXPECT THE FA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PWATS WILL GENERALLY BE BTWN
1.25 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SO
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY
     UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...MID 70S TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S MONDAY
NIGHT...MID 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. SKY CONDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH 5KTS OR
LESS. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC FRIDAY EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN AT KGFL AFT 03Z AND PERHAPS AFT 06Z AT KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRAS...CHC TSRAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRAS...TSRAS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 35
AND 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.  MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 90 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION AGAIN.
THE RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE MORE
HUMID AIR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO
START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...VTK/11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 290803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
403 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 403 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH CONTINUED SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE...AND THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
YIELD SUNNIER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. A FEW-SCT FAIR WX CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.

H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +9C TO +11C RANGE AND WITH LIMITED MIXING
AND LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS THAN YESTERDAY...TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS. A FEW U70S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH VERY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER NICE LATE AUGUST EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SFC HIGH DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY
THE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM WITH SOME
RADITIONAL COOLING AGAIN. HOWEVER...SOME CIRRUS MAY APPROACH AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND A LIGHT S/SE BREEZE WILL INCREASE IN
THE CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW FROM
THE DEPARTING SFC ANTICYCLONE.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH A FEW U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION AND SRN VT. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED
WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEABOARD...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
DURING THE DAY. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AS H850 TEMPS NUDGE UP TO +14C TO +16C. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE TIMING ON THE ECMWF/GFS WAS FAVORED OVER THE NAM. THE
SHOWALTER VALUES ARE BARELY BELOW ZERO...AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MUCAPE WITH MAINLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG. MOST OF THE NIGHT MAY END
UP DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO FORM AND
MOVE UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE ON THE STICKY SIDE
WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES INTO THE FCST
AREA WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND THE COLD FRONT
SLIGHTLY DIPPING S/SE TOWARDS NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE MID
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST. THE
WEAK SHORT-WAVE INTERSECTS THE HUMID AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING MAY INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT HEAVY RAIN MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH SFC DEWPTS
RISING INTO THE M60S TO L70S. PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.50-2.0 INCHES
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES. THESE PWATS ARE A FEW STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS HAS SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG.
PARTS OF PA AND W-CNTRL NY GET CLOSE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET STREAK AT H250 LATE IN THE DAY. A PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER ERN NY AND WRN ENGLAND. AN H850
THETA-E RIDGE OF 332K TO 342K SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT BY 00Z/MON ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST GFS. WILL MENTION THE HVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION....HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE M70S TO L80S AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE DRIFTS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
THE SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TRI CITIES. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
U60S...EXCEPT SOME L60S OVER THE MTNS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...TO KEEP THE UNSETTLED WX
GOING INTO THE LATTER THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE  FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON MONDAY EXPECT THE FA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PWATS WILL GENERALLY BE BTWN
1.25 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SO
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY
...UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...MID 70S TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S MONDAY
NIGHT...MID 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 5KTS.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR/LIFR FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF AS
WELL...AFTER 08Z UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. SKY CONDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
5KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC FRIDAY EVENING WITH FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN AT KGFL AFT 03Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRAS...CHC TSRAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRAS...TSRAS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 35
AND 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.  MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 90 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION AGAIN.
THE RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE MORE
HUMID AIR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO
START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...VTK/11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 290803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
403 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 403 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH CONTINUED SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE...AND THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
YIELD SUNNIER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. A FEW-SCT FAIR WX CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.

H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +9C TO +11C RANGE AND WITH LIMITED MIXING
AND LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS THAN YESTERDAY...TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS. A FEW U70S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH VERY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER NICE LATE AUGUST EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SFC HIGH DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY
THE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM WITH SOME
RADITIONAL COOLING AGAIN. HOWEVER...SOME CIRRUS MAY APPROACH AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND A LIGHT S/SE BREEZE WILL INCREASE IN
THE CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW FROM
THE DEPARTING SFC ANTICYCLONE.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH A FEW U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION AND SRN VT. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED
WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEABOARD...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
DURING THE DAY. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AS H850 TEMPS NUDGE UP TO +14C TO +16C. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE TIMING ON THE ECMWF/GFS WAS FAVORED OVER THE NAM. THE
SHOWALTER VALUES ARE BARELY BELOW ZERO...AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MUCAPE WITH MAINLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG. MOST OF THE NIGHT MAY END
UP DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO FORM AND
MOVE UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE ON THE STICKY SIDE
WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES INTO THE FCST
AREA WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND THE COLD FRONT
SLIGHTLY DIPPING S/SE TOWARDS NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE MID
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST. THE
WEAK SHORT-WAVE INTERSECTS THE HUMID AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING MAY INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT HEAVY RAIN MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH SFC DEWPTS
RISING INTO THE M60S TO L70S. PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.50-2.0 INCHES
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES. THESE PWATS ARE A FEW STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS HAS SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG.
PARTS OF PA AND W-CNTRL NY GET CLOSE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET STREAK AT H250 LATE IN THE DAY. A PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER ERN NY AND WRN ENGLAND. AN H850
THETA-E RIDGE OF 332K TO 342K SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT BY 00Z/MON ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST GFS. WILL MENTION THE HVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION....HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE M70S TO L80S AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE DRIFTS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
THE SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TRI CITIES. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
U60S...EXCEPT SOME L60S OVER THE MTNS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...TO KEEP THE UNSETTLED WX
GOING INTO THE LATTER THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE  FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON MONDAY EXPECT THE FA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PWATS WILL GENERALLY BE BTWN
1.25 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SO
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY
...UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...MID 70S TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S MONDAY
NIGHT...MID 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 5KTS.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR/LIFR FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF AS
WELL...AFTER 08Z UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. SKY CONDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
5KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC FRIDAY EVENING WITH FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN AT KGFL AFT 03Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRAS...CHC TSRAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRAS...TSRAS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 35
AND 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.  MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 90 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION AGAIN.
THE RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE MORE
HUMID AIR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO
START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...VTK/11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 290803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
403 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 403 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH CONTINUED SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE...AND THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
YIELD SUNNIER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. A FEW-SCT FAIR WX CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.

H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +9C TO +11C RANGE AND WITH LIMITED MIXING
AND LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS THAN YESTERDAY...TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS. A FEW U70S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH VERY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER NICE LATE AUGUST EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SFC HIGH DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY
THE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM WITH SOME
RADITIONAL COOLING AGAIN. HOWEVER...SOME CIRRUS MAY APPROACH AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND A LIGHT S/SE BREEZE WILL INCREASE IN
THE CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW FROM
THE DEPARTING SFC ANTICYCLONE.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH A FEW U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION AND SRN VT. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED
WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEABOARD...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
DURING THE DAY. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AS H850 TEMPS NUDGE UP TO +14C TO +16C. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE TIMING ON THE ECMWF/GFS WAS FAVORED OVER THE NAM. THE
SHOWALTER VALUES ARE BARELY BELOW ZERO...AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MUCAPE WITH MAINLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG. MOST OF THE NIGHT MAY END
UP DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO FORM AND
MOVE UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE ON THE STICKY SIDE
WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES INTO THE FCST
AREA WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND THE COLD FRONT
SLIGHTLY DIPPING S/SE TOWARDS NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE MID
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST. THE
WEAK SHORT-WAVE INTERSECTS THE HUMID AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING MAY INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT HEAVY RAIN MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH SFC DEWPTS
RISING INTO THE M60S TO L70S. PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.50-2.0 INCHES
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES. THESE PWATS ARE A FEW STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS HAS SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG.
PARTS OF PA AND W-CNTRL NY GET CLOSE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET STREAK AT H250 LATE IN THE DAY. A PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER ERN NY AND WRN ENGLAND. AN H850
THETA-E RIDGE OF 332K TO 342K SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT BY 00Z/MON ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST GFS. WILL MENTION THE HVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION....HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE M70S TO L80S AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE DRIFTS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
THE SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TRI CITIES. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
U60S...EXCEPT SOME L60S OVER THE MTNS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...TO KEEP THE UNSETTLED WX
GOING INTO THE LATTER THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE  FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON MONDAY EXPECT THE FA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PWATS WILL GENERALLY BE BTWN
1.25 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SO
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY
...UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...MID 70S TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S MONDAY
NIGHT...MID 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 5KTS.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR/LIFR FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF AS
WELL...AFTER 08Z UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. SKY CONDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
5KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC FRIDAY EVENING WITH FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN AT KGFL AFT 03Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRAS...CHC TSRAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRAS...TSRAS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 35
AND 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.  MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 90 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION AGAIN.
THE RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE MORE
HUMID AIR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO
START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...VTK/11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 290803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
403 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 403 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH CONTINUED SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE...AND THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
YIELD SUNNIER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. A FEW-SCT FAIR WX CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.

H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +9C TO +11C RANGE AND WITH LIMITED MIXING
AND LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS THAN YESTERDAY...TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS. A FEW U70S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH VERY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER NICE LATE AUGUST EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SFC HIGH DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY
THE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM WITH SOME
RADITIONAL COOLING AGAIN. HOWEVER...SOME CIRRUS MAY APPROACH AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND A LIGHT S/SE BREEZE WILL INCREASE IN
THE CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW FROM
THE DEPARTING SFC ANTICYCLONE.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH A FEW U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION AND SRN VT. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED
WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEABOARD...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
DURING THE DAY. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AS H850 TEMPS NUDGE UP TO +14C TO +16C. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE TIMING ON THE ECMWF/GFS WAS FAVORED OVER THE NAM. THE
SHOWALTER VALUES ARE BARELY BELOW ZERO...AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MUCAPE WITH MAINLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG. MOST OF THE NIGHT MAY END
UP DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO FORM AND
MOVE UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE ON THE STICKY SIDE
WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES INTO THE FCST
AREA WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND THE COLD FRONT
SLIGHTLY DIPPING S/SE TOWARDS NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE MID
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST. THE
WEAK SHORT-WAVE INTERSECTS THE HUMID AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING MAY INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT HEAVY RAIN MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH SFC DEWPTS
RISING INTO THE M60S TO L70S. PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.50-2.0 INCHES
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES. THESE PWATS ARE A FEW STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS HAS SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG.
PARTS OF PA AND W-CNTRL NY GET CLOSE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET STREAK AT H250 LATE IN THE DAY. A PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER ERN NY AND WRN ENGLAND. AN H850
THETA-E RIDGE OF 332K TO 342K SETS UP OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT BY 00Z/MON ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST GFS. WILL MENTION THE HVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION....HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE M70S TO L80S AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE DRIFTS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
THE SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TRI CITIES. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
U60S...EXCEPT SOME L60S OVER THE MTNS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...TO KEEP THE UNSETTLED WX
GOING INTO THE LATTER THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE  FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON MONDAY EXPECT THE FA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PWATS WILL GENERALLY BE BTWN
1.25 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SO
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY
...UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...MID 70S TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S MONDAY
NIGHT...MID 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 5KTS.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR/LIFR FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF AS
WELL...AFTER 08Z UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. SKY CONDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
5KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC FRIDAY EVENING WITH FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN AT KGFL AFT 03Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRAS...CHC TSRAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRAS...TSRAS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRAS...TSRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND A DRY START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO MINIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 35
AND 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.  MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 90 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION AGAIN.
THE RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE MORE
HUMID AIR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO
START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...VTK/11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
AND ASSOCIATED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OWING TO INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE...AND PATCHY EARLY AM FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
12Z WITH NEAR FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN LOW - GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LEANED
TOWARD WARMER NAM- MOS GUIDANCE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 72-76F
RANGE. ALL IN ALL A VERY PLEASANT DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES UNDER
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING
EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHOULD
SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND
10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO
WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL
WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY ONE MINOR EXCEPTION. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT KSLK
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 5 AM...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM
MARINE...TEAM BTV






000
FXUS61 KBTV 290741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
AND ASSOCIATED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OWING TO INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE...AND PATCHY EARLY AM FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
12Z WITH NEAR FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN LOW - GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LEANED
TOWARD WARMER NAM- MOS GUIDANCE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 72-76F
RANGE. ALL IN ALL A VERY PLEASANT DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES UNDER
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING
EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHOULD
SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND
10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO
WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL
WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY ONE MINOR EXCEPTION. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT KSLK
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 5 AM...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM
MARINE...TEAM BTV






000
FXUS61 KBTV 290741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
AND ASSOCIATED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OWING TO INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE...AND PATCHY EARLY AM FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
12Z WITH NEAR FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN LOW - GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LEANED
TOWARD WARMER NAM- MOS GUIDANCE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 72-76F
RANGE. ALL IN ALL A VERY PLEASANT DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES UNDER
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING
EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHOULD
SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND
10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO
WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL
WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY ONE MINOR EXCEPTION. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT KSLK
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 5 AM...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM
MARINE...TEAM BTV






000
FXUS61 KBTV 290741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
AND ASSOCIATED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OWING TO INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE...AND PATCHY EARLY AM FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
12Z WITH NEAR FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN LOW - GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LEANED
TOWARD WARMER NAM- MOS GUIDANCE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 72-76F
RANGE. ALL IN ALL A VERY PLEASANT DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES UNDER
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING
EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHOULD
SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND
10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO
WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL
WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY ONE MINOR EXCEPTION. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT KSLK
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 5 AM...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM
MARINE...TEAM BTV






000
FXUS61 KBTV 290530
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 106 AM EDT FRIDAY...STRATOCUMULUS DECK GRADUALLY ERODING
EARLY THIS MORNING PER RECENT IR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY WHERE
1KM AGL WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND WILL RESULT IN LESS TURBULENT MIXING
OF DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S FOR
MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEW POINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEW POINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIR MASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEW POINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY ONE MINOR EXCEPTION. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT KSLK
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 290530
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 106 AM EDT FRIDAY...STRATOCUMULUS DECK GRADUALLY ERODING
EARLY THIS MORNING PER RECENT IR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY WHERE
1KM AGL WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND WILL RESULT IN LESS TURBULENT MIXING
OF DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S FOR
MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEW POINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEW POINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIR MASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEW POINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY ONE MINOR EXCEPTION. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT KSLK
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 290519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER WRN NY
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RAP/RUC40.
THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND THE TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET WITH
THE CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U40S TO L50S WITH
SOME 40-45F READINGS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS. SOME
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE RAIN-FREE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A STABLE AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...BUT WE ARE
THINKING SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL START TO INCREASE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO UNCOMFORTABLE JUST YET. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE US.  THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE RESULT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME
TO TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN/EVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL A STRONGER
FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK TO FINALLY END
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AROUND +15 TO +18 DEGREES C...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY WARM AND
MUGGY WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND LOW IN THE 60S. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL /UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80/ FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 5KTS.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR/LIFR FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF AS
WELL...AFTER 08Z UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. SKY CONDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
5KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC FRIDAY EVENING WITH FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN AT KGFL AFT 03Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO START
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/WASULA
NEAR TERM...VTK/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...VTK/11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 290519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER WRN NY
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RAP/RUC40.
THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND THE TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET WITH
THE CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U40S TO L50S WITH
SOME 40-45F READINGS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS. SOME
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE RAIN-FREE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A STABLE AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...BUT WE ARE
THINKING SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL START TO INCREASE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO UNCOMFORTABLE JUST YET. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE US.  THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE RESULT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME
TO TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN/EVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL A STRONGER
FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK TO FINALLY END
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AROUND +15 TO +18 DEGREES C...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY WARM AND
MUGGY WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND LOW IN THE 60S. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL /UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80/ FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 5KTS.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR/LIFR FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF AS
WELL...AFTER 08Z UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. SKY CONDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
5KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC FRIDAY EVENING WITH FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN AT KGFL AFT 03Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO START
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/WASULA
NEAR TERM...VTK/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...VTK/11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 290515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER WRN NY
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RAP/RUC40.
THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND THE TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET WITH
THE CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U40S TO L50S WITH
SOME 40-45F READINGS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS. SOME
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE RAIN-FREE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A STABLE AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...BUT WE ARE
THINKING SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL START TO INCREASE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO UNCOMFORTABLE JUST YET. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE US.  THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE RESULT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME
TO TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN/EVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL A STRONGER
FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK TO FINALLY END
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AROUND +15 TO +18 DEGREES C...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY WARM AND
MUGGY WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND LOW IN THE 60S. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL /UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80/ FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
5KTS AFTER 04Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR FOG AT KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPSF
AS WELL...AFTER 06Z-08Z UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH 5KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO START
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/WASULA
NEAR TERM...VTK/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 290515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER WRN NY
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RAP/RUC40.
THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND THE TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET WITH
THE CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U40S TO L50S WITH
SOME 40-45F READINGS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS. SOME
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE RAIN-FREE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A STABLE AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...BUT WE ARE
THINKING SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL START TO INCREASE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO UNCOMFORTABLE JUST YET. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE US.  THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE RESULT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME
TO TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN/EVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL A STRONGER
FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK TO FINALLY END
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AROUND +15 TO +18 DEGREES C...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY WARM AND
MUGGY WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND LOW IN THE 60S. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL /UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80/ FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
5KTS AFTER 04Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR FOG AT KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPSF
AS WELL...AFTER 06Z-08Z UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH 5KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO START
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/WASULA
NEAR TERM...VTK/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KBTV 290513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 106 AM EDT FRIDAY...STRATOCUMULUS DECK GRADUALLY ERODING
EARLY THIS MORNING PER RECENT IR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY WHERE
1KM AGL WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND WILL RESULT IN LESS TURBULENT MIXING
OF DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S FOR
MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEWPOINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT 23Z THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
BE A BIT STRONGER AND WILL LIKELY INHIBIT THE FORMATION OF FOG
OBVERNIGHT...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH A MENTION OF DENSE FOG AT KSLK WHERE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLIER AND SKIES CLEARING OUT FASTER THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SAT-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM






000
FXUS61 KBTV 290513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 106 AM EDT FRIDAY...STRATOCUMULUS DECK GRADUALLY ERODING
EARLY THIS MORNING PER RECENT IR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY WHERE
1KM AGL WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND WILL RESULT IN LESS TURBULENT MIXING
OF DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S FOR
MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEWPOINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT 23Z THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
BE A BIT STRONGER AND WILL LIKELY INHIBIT THE FORMATION OF FOG
OBVERNIGHT...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH A MENTION OF DENSE FOG AT KSLK WHERE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLIER AND SKIES CLEARING OUT FASTER THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SAT-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 290229
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1029 PM EDT THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
CLEAR AS WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM EXITING LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTHEAST. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS DO SHOW THINNING OF THE
CLOUDS THOUGH...SO JUST ADJUSTED TIMING OF CLEARING BACK A FEW
HOURS. AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. WITH THE DELAY IN CLEARING
DID OPT TO BUMP TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT STILL LOOKING AT
LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEWPOINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT 23Z THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
BE A BIT STRONGER AND WILL LIKELY INHIBIT THE FORMATION OF FOG
OBVERNIGHT...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH A MENTION OF DENSE FOG AT KSLK WHERE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLIER AND SKIES CLEARING OUT FASTER THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SAT-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290229
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1029 PM EDT THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
CLEAR AS WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM EXITING LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTHEAST. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS DO SHOW THINNING OF THE
CLOUDS THOUGH...SO JUST ADJUSTED TIMING OF CLEARING BACK A FEW
HOURS. AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. WITH THE DELAY IN CLEARING
DID OPT TO BUMP TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT STILL LOOKING AT
LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEWPOINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT 23Z THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
BE A BIT STRONGER AND WILL LIKELY INHIBIT THE FORMATION OF FOG
OBVERNIGHT...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH A MENTION OF DENSE FOG AT KSLK WHERE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLIER AND SKIES CLEARING OUT FASTER THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SAT-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 290211
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1011 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...LATEST SAT PICTURE SHOWING CLOUDS STILL
HOLDING ON. WILL ADJUST CLOUDS AND HOURLY TEMPS A TAD TO ALIGN WITH
LATEST SFC OBS. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ONCE WE CLEAR OUT AND
COLDER AND DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL
AS SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.

WINDS SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE A SLIGHT BREEZE FOR MANY LOCATIONS MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED JUST TO OUR WEST. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
NEAR CALM AROUND SUNRISE...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE DRY AIR MASS. WILL ALSO MENTION
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES
OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE RAIN-FREE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A STABLE AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...BUT WE ARE
THINKING SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL START TO INCREASE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO UNCOMFORTABLE JUST YET. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE US.  THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE RESULT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME
TO TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN/EVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL A STRONGER
FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK TO FINALLY END
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AROUND +15 TO +18 DEGREES C...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY WARM AND
MUGGY WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND LOW IN THE 60S. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL /UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80/ FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
5KTS AFTER 04Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR FOG AT KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPSF
AS WELL...AFTER 06Z-08Z UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH 5KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO START
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 290211
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1011 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...LATEST SAT PICTURE SHOWING CLOUDS STILL
HOLDING ON. WILL ADJUST CLOUDS AND HOURLY TEMPS A TAD TO ALIGN WITH
LATEST SFC OBS. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ONCE WE CLEAR OUT AND
COLDER AND DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL
AS SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.

WINDS SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE A SLIGHT BREEZE FOR MANY LOCATIONS MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED JUST TO OUR WEST. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
NEAR CALM AROUND SUNRISE...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE DRY AIR MASS. WILL ALSO MENTION
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES
OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE RAIN-FREE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A STABLE AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...BUT WE ARE
THINKING SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL START TO INCREASE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO UNCOMFORTABLE JUST YET. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE US.  THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE RESULT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME
TO TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN/EVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL A STRONGER
FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK TO FINALLY END
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AROUND +15 TO +18 DEGREES C...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY WARM AND
MUGGY WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND LOW IN THE 60S. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL /UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80/ FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
5KTS AFTER 04Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR FOG AT KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPSF
AS WELL...AFTER 06Z-08Z UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH 5KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO START
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 290211
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1011 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...LATEST SAT PICTURE SHOWING CLOUDS STILL
HOLDING ON. WILL ADJUST CLOUDS AND HOURLY TEMPS A TAD TO ALIGN WITH
LATEST SFC OBS. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ONCE WE CLEAR OUT AND
COLDER AND DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL
AS SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.

WINDS SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE A SLIGHT BREEZE FOR MANY LOCATIONS MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED JUST TO OUR WEST. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
NEAR CALM AROUND SUNRISE...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE DRY AIR MASS. WILL ALSO MENTION
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES
OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE RAIN-FREE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A STABLE AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...BUT WE ARE
THINKING SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL START TO INCREASE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO UNCOMFORTABLE JUST YET. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE US.  THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE RESULT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME
TO TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN/EVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL A STRONGER
FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK TO FINALLY END
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AROUND +15 TO +18 DEGREES C...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY WARM AND
MUGGY WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND LOW IN THE 60S. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL /UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80/ FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
5KTS AFTER 04Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR FOG AT KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPSF
AS WELL...AFTER 06Z-08Z UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH 5KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO START
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 290211
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1011 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...LATEST SAT PICTURE SHOWING CLOUDS STILL
HOLDING ON. WILL ADJUST CLOUDS AND HOURLY TEMPS A TAD TO ALIGN WITH
LATEST SFC OBS. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ONCE WE CLEAR OUT AND
COLDER AND DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL
AS SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.

WINDS SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE A SLIGHT BREEZE FOR MANY LOCATIONS MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED JUST TO OUR WEST. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
NEAR CALM AROUND SUNRISE...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE DRY AIR MASS. WILL ALSO MENTION
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES
OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE RAIN-FREE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A STABLE AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...BUT WE ARE
THINKING SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL START TO INCREASE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO UNCOMFORTABLE JUST YET. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE US.  THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE RESULT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME
TO TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN/EVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL A STRONGER
FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK TO FINALLY END
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AROUND +15 TO +18 DEGREES C...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY WARM AND
MUGGY WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND LOW IN THE 60S. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL /UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80/ FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
5KTS AFTER 04Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR FOG AT KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPSF
AS WELL...AFTER 06Z-08Z UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH 5KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO START
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 282357
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
757 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 619 PM EDT THURSDAY...INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE
WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS NEEDED TO HOURLY GRIDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS TO MESH WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
HAVE BEEN WITH US THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING US WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN
THE CONTINUED...ALBEIT WEAK...NORTH FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT
LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEWPOINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT 23Z THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
BE A BIT STRONGER AND WILL LIKELY INHIBIT THE FORMATION OF FOG
OBVERNIGHT...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH A MENTION OF DENSE FOG AT KSLK WHERE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLIER AND SKIES CLEARING OUT FASTER THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SAT-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 282348
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
748 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
AREA. BIG CONTRAST IN TEMPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS VS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL AS SKIES CLEAR
OUT TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWING CLOUDS STARTING TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE A SLIGHT BREEZE FOR MANY LOCATIONS MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED JUST TO OUR WEST. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
NEAR CALM AROUND SUNRISE...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE DRY AIR MASS. WILL ALSO MENTION
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES
OF WATER.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE RAIN-FREE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A STABLE AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...BUT WE ARE
THINKING SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL START TO INCREASE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO UNCOMFORTABLE JUST YET. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE US.  THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE RESULT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME
TO TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN/EVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL A STRONGER
FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK TO FINALLY END
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AROUND +15 TO +18 DEGREES C...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY WARM AND
MUGGY WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND LOW IN THE 60S. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL /UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80/ FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
5KTS AFTER 04Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME IFR FOG AT KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPSF
AS WELL...AFTER 06Z-08Z UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE. FOG LOOKS LESS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING
BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
BE FEW-SCT050. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH 5KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO START
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KBTV 282222
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
622 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 619 PM EDT THURSDAY...INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE
WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS NEEDED TO HOURLY GRIDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS TO MESH WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
HAVE BEEN WITH US THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING US WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN
THE CONTINUED...ALBEIT WEAK...NORTH FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT
LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEWPOINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BTWN 3500FT AND
5000FT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE NW THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BTWN 3-8KTS. THERE
WILL BE A LGT LOW LVL JET AROUND 15 KTS AT 1-2KFT...KEEPING WINDS
FROM BCMG CALM THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. AROUND 06Z...CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO CALM OR NEAR CALM...COMBINED
WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LIFR- VLIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK...WITH IFR BR/FG AT
KMPV...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

COME FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LGT GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE OVERHEAD. FEW STRATOCUMULUS PSBL
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KGM









000
FXUS61 KBTV 282222
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
622 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 619 PM EDT THURSDAY...INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE
WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS NEEDED TO HOURLY GRIDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS TO MESH WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
HAVE BEEN WITH US THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING US WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN
THE CONTINUED...ALBEIT WEAK...NORTH FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT
LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEWPOINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BTWN 3500FT AND
5000FT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE NW THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BTWN 3-8KTS. THERE
WILL BE A LGT LOW LVL JET AROUND 15 KTS AT 1-2KFT...KEEPING WINDS
FROM BCMG CALM THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. AROUND 06Z...CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO CALM OR NEAR CALM...COMBINED
WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LIFR- VLIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK...WITH IFR BR/FG AT
KMPV...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

COME FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LGT GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE OVERHEAD. FEW STRATOCUMULUS PSBL
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 281957
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT...A BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW HAS USHERED IN A COOL
AND DRY AIR MASS. DEWPOINTS HAVE CRASHED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION MAKING IT FEEL LIKE AN EARLY FALL DAY.
A DECENT COVERAGE OF STRATOCU CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH PARTLY SUNNY OR
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
ONCE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WINDS SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT BREEZE FOR MANY
LOCATIONS MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED JUST
TO OUR WEST. WINDS SHOULD BECOME NEAR CALM AROUND SUNRISE...WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE
DRY AIR MASS. WILL ALSO MENTION PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE RAIN-FREE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A STABLE AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...BUT WE ARE
THINKING SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL START TO INCREASE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO UNCOMFORTABLE JUST YET. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE US.  THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE RESULT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME
TO TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN/EVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL A STRONGER
FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK TO FINALLY END
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AROUND +15 TO +18 DEGREES C...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY WARM AND
MUGGY WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND LOW IN THE 60S. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL /UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80/ FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND 6-8 KFT
FROM THIS AFTN WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS
AROUND 10-12 KTS THIS AFTN...BUT THESE SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPSF AS
WELL...AFTER 06Z-08Z UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE.  FOG LOOKS LESS POSSIBLE
AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH FEW DIURNAL CU
AND SCT PASSING CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO START
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 281957
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT...A BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW HAS USHERED IN A COOL
AND DRY AIR MASS. DEWPOINTS HAVE CRASHED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION MAKING IT FEEL LIKE AN EARLY FALL DAY.
A DECENT COVERAGE OF STRATOCU CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH PARTLY SUNNY OR
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
ONCE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WINDS SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT BREEZE FOR MANY
LOCATIONS MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED JUST
TO OUR WEST. WINDS SHOULD BECOME NEAR CALM AROUND SUNRISE...WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE
DRY AIR MASS. WILL ALSO MENTION PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE RAIN-FREE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A STABLE AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...BUT WE ARE
THINKING SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL START TO INCREASE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO UNCOMFORTABLE JUST YET. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE US.  THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE RESULT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FROM TIME
TO TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN/EVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
RUNS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT WILL TAKE UNTIL A STRONGER
FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK TO FINALLY END
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AROUND +15 TO +18 DEGREES C...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY WARM AND
MUGGY WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND LOW IN THE 60S. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH AND COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL /UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80/ FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND 6-8 KFT
FROM THIS AFTN WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS
AROUND 10-12 KTS THIS AFTN...BUT THESE SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPSF AS
WELL...AFTER 06Z-08Z UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE.  FOG LOOKS LESS POSSIBLE
AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH FEW DIURNAL CU
AND SCT PASSING CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO START
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN WITH US THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING US WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN THE CONTINUED...ALBEIT WEAK...NORTH FLOW...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE
IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEWPOINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERAGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BTWN 3500FT AND
5000FT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE NW THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BTWN 3-8KTS. THERE
WILL BE A LGT LOW LVL JET AROUND 15 KTS AT 1-2KFT...KEEPING WINDS
FROM BCMG CALM THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. AROUND 06Z...CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO CALM OR NEAR CALM...COMBINED
WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LIFR- VLIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK...WITH IFR BR/FG AT
KMPV...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

COME FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LGT GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE OVERHEAD. FEW STRATOCUMULUS PSBL
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN WITH US THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING US WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN THE CONTINUED...ALBEIT WEAK...NORTH FLOW...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE
IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEWPOINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERAGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BTWN 3500FT AND
5000FT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE NW THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BTWN 3-8KTS. THERE
WILL BE A LGT LOW LVL JET AROUND 15 KTS AT 1-2KFT...KEEPING WINDS
FROM BCMG CALM THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. AROUND 06Z...CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO CALM OR NEAR CALM...COMBINED
WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LIFR- VLIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK...WITH IFR BR/FG AT
KMPV...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

COME FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LGT GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE OVERHEAD. FEW STRATOCUMULUS PSBL
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN WITH US THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING US WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN THE CONTINUED...ALBEIT WEAK...NORTH FLOW...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE
IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEWPOINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERAGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BTWN 3500FT AND
5000FT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE NW THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BTWN 3-8KTS. THERE
WILL BE A LGT LOW LVL JET AROUND 15 KTS AT 1-2KFT...KEEPING WINDS
FROM BCMG CALM THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. AROUND 06Z...CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO CALM OR NEAR CALM...COMBINED
WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LIFR- VLIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK...WITH IFR BR/FG AT
KMPV...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

COME FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LGT GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE OVERHEAD. FEW STRATOCUMULUS PSBL
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN WITH US THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING US WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN THE CONTINUED...ALBEIT WEAK...NORTH FLOW...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE
IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEWPOINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERAGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BTWN 3500FT AND
5000FT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE NW THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BTWN 3-8KTS. THERE
WILL BE A LGT LOW LVL JET AROUND 15 KTS AT 1-2KFT...KEEPING WINDS
FROM BCMG CALM THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. AROUND 06Z...CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO CALM OR NEAR CALM...COMBINED
WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LIFR- VLIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK...WITH IFR BR/FG AT
KMPV...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

COME FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LGT GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE OVERHEAD. FEW STRATOCUMULUS PSBL
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281858
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
258 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN WITH US THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING US WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN THE CONTINUED...ALBEIT WEAK...NORTH FLOW...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE
IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.



&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BTWN 3500FT AND
5000FT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE NW THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BTWN 3-8KTS. THERE
WILL BE A LGT LOW LVL JET AROUND 15 KTS AT 1-2KFT...KEEPING WINDS
FROM BCMG CALM THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. AROUND 06Z...CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO CALM OR NEAR CALM...COMBINED
WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LIFR- VLIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK...WITH IFR BR/FG AT
KMPV...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

COME FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LGT GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE OVERHEAD. FEW STRATOCUMULUS PSBL
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...KGM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281858
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
258 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN WITH US THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING US WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN THE CONTINUED...ALBEIT WEAK...NORTH FLOW...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE
IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.



&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BTWN 3500FT AND
5000FT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE NW THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BTWN 3-8KTS. THERE
WILL BE A LGT LOW LVL JET AROUND 15 KTS AT 1-2KFT...KEEPING WINDS
FROM BCMG CALM THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. AROUND 06Z...CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO CALM OR NEAR CALM...COMBINED
WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LIFR- VLIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK...WITH IFR BR/FG AT
KMPV...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

COME FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LGT GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE OVERHEAD. FEW STRATOCUMULUS PSBL
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY BRINGING FALL-LIKE STRATOCUMULUS TO THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HIGHS FROM 65 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD FOR MOST
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING
SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL
SEE NOCTURNAL FOG 04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW
READINGS 38-39F IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
(INCLUDING KSLK).

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BTWN 3500FT AND
5000FT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE NW THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BTWN 3-8KTS. THERE
WILL BE A LGT LOW LVL JET AROUND 15 KTS AT 1-2KFT...KEEPING WINDS
FROM BCMG CALM THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. AROUND 06Z...CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO CALM OR NEAR CALM...COMBINED
WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LIFR- VLIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK...WITH IFR BR/FG AT
KMPV...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

COME FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LGT GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE OVERHEAD. FEW STRATOCUMULUS PSBL
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...KGM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY BRINGING FALL-LIKE STRATOCUMULUS TO THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HIGHS FROM 65 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD FOR MOST
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING
SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL
SEE NOCTURNAL FOG 04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW
READINGS 38-39F IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
(INCLUDING KSLK).

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BTWN 3500FT AND
5000FT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE NW THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BTWN 3-8KTS. THERE
WILL BE A LGT LOW LVL JET AROUND 15 KTS AT 1-2KFT...KEEPING WINDS
FROM BCMG CALM THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. AROUND 06Z...CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO CALM OR NEAR CALM...COMBINED
WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LIFR- VLIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK...WITH IFR BR/FG AT
KMPV...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

COME FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LGT GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE OVERHEAD. FEW STRATOCUMULUS PSBL
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...KGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 281713
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
113 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR TO OPEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS BUILDING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF STRATOCU CLOUDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...IT WILL BE A RAIN FREE AND PLEASANT
LATE AUGUST DAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE 50S.

H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE OVER ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION PERSISTING THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
SFC ANTICYCLONE AND THE DEPARTING CRISTOBAL OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP IT BREEZY TODAY WITH NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN OVER NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE
WITH 40S TO L50S. SOME U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF
HAMILTON COUNTY.

FRIDAY...MORE GREAT LATE AUGUST WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE
U40S TO L50S. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT DEEP MIXING. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU...BUT WITH LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U60S TO M70S OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW U70S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...BUT SOME CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE UPPER
MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS WILL NOT BE NOT AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MORE CLOUDS THEN SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WITH AN INCREASING S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS MAY CAUSE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TIED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL START TO BECOME MORE HUMID...BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS...AND EVEN NAM TRENDS MOST OF
THIS DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S ARE EXPECTED
ON THE FIRST THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.

DURING THE EVENING...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE SW
H500 FLOW...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SRN
VT...ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY
SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS SRN CANADA INTO
MONDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL
GENERALLY BE BTWN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND 6-8 KFT
FROM THIS AFTN WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS
AROUND 10-12 KTS THIS AFTN...BUT THESE SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPSF AS
WELL...AFTER 06Z-08Z UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE.  FOG LOOKS LESS POSSIBLE
AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH FEW DIURNAL CU
AND SCT PASSING CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
VERY HEAVY DEW FORMATION. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TODAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY LABOR DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281713
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
113 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR TO OPEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS BUILDING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF STRATOCU CLOUDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...IT WILL BE A RAIN FREE AND PLEASANT
LATE AUGUST DAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE 50S.

H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE OVER ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION PERSISTING THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
SFC ANTICYCLONE AND THE DEPARTING CRISTOBAL OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP IT BREEZY TODAY WITH NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN OVER NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE
WITH 40S TO L50S. SOME U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF
HAMILTON COUNTY.

FRIDAY...MORE GREAT LATE AUGUST WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE
U40S TO L50S. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT DEEP MIXING. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU...BUT WITH LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U60S TO M70S OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW U70S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...BUT SOME CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE UPPER
MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS WILL NOT BE NOT AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MORE CLOUDS THEN SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WITH AN INCREASING S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS MAY CAUSE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TIED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL START TO BECOME MORE HUMID...BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS...AND EVEN NAM TRENDS MOST OF
THIS DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S ARE EXPECTED
ON THE FIRST THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.

DURING THE EVENING...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE SW
H500 FLOW...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SRN
VT...ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY
SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS SRN CANADA INTO
MONDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL
GENERALLY BE BTWN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND 6-8 KFT
FROM THIS AFTN WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS
AROUND 10-12 KTS THIS AFTN...BUT THESE SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPSF AS
WELL...AFTER 06Z-08Z UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE.  FOG LOOKS LESS POSSIBLE
AT KPOU/KALB DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND/OR A LINGERING BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH FEW DIURNAL CU
AND SCT PASSING CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
VERY HEAVY DEW FORMATION. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TODAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY LABOR DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 281710
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR TO OPEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS BUILDING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF STRATOCU CLOUDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...IT WILL BE A RAIN FREE AND PLEASANT
LATE AUGUST DAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE 50S.

H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE OVER ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION PERSISTING THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
SFC ANTICYCLONE AND THE DEPARTING CRISTOBAL OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP IT BREEZY TODAY WITH NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN OVER NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE
WITH 40S TO L50S. SOME U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF
HAMILTON COUNTY.

FRIDAY...MORE GREAT LATE AUGUST WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE
U40S TO L50S. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT DEEP MIXING. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU...BUT WITH LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U60S TO M70S OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW U70S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...BUT SOME CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE UPPER
MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS WILL NOT BE NOT AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MORE CLOUDS THEN SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WITH AN INCREASING S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS MAY CAUSE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TIED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL START TO BECOME MORE HUMID...BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS...AND EVEN NAM TRENDS MOST OF
THIS DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S ARE EXPECTED
ON THE FIRST THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.

DURING THE EVENING...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE SW
H500 FLOW...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SRN
VT...ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY
SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS SRN CANADA INTO
MONDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL
GENERALLY BE BTWN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL WHERE
LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AFT 08Z AND AT KPSF
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFT 08Z TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH
GENERALLY P6SM SCT040-060 CONDS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING DAYTIME
TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH SKC CONDITIONS AFT
00Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY
NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. LABOR
DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
VERY HEAVY DEW FORMATION. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TODAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY LABOR DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281639
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1239 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY BRINGING FALL-LIKE STRATOCUMULUS TO THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HIGHS FROM 65 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD FOR MOST
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING
SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL
SEE NOCTURNAL FOG 04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW
READINGS 38-39F IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
(INCLUDING KSLK).

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z BEFORE SKIES BECOME CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...12Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR.
LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH









000
FXUS61 KBTV 281639
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1239 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY BRINGING FALL-LIKE STRATOCUMULUS TO THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HIGHS FROM 65 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD FOR MOST
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING
SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL
SEE NOCTURNAL FOG 04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW
READINGS 38-39F IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
(INCLUDING KSLK).

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z BEFORE SKIES BECOME CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...12Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR.
LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH









000
FXUS61 KBTV 281639
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1239 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY BRINGING FALL-LIKE STRATOCUMULUS TO THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HIGHS FROM 65 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD FOR MOST
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING
SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL
SEE NOCTURNAL FOG 04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW
READINGS 38-39F IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
(INCLUDING KSLK).

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z BEFORE SKIES BECOME CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...12Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR.
LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH









000
FXUS61 KBTV 281639
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1239 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY BRINGING FALL-LIKE STRATOCUMULUS TO THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HIGHS FROM 65 TO 75 STILL LOOK GOOD FOR MOST
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING
SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL
SEE NOCTURNAL FOG 04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW
READINGS 38-39F IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
(INCLUDING KSLK).

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z BEFORE SKIES BECOME CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...12Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR.
LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH









000
FXUS61 KBTV 281350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
950 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY BRINGING FALL-LIKE STRATOCUMULUS TO THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HIGHS 65 TO 75 FOR MOST TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 745 AM THURSDAY...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SWD
ACROSS EASTERN VT AND NH AT 11Z WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD THIS
MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND UPSTREAM
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
NWLY WINDS ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING. NW
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS 14-22Z. SHOULD
GENERALLY SEE DEW POINTS FALLING THRU THE 50S AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN FROM THE NW AS WELL. THE NAM AND LOCAL BTV 4KM AND 12KM WRF
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL INTO
NERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER VORT AND UPPER LEVEL
JET...WHICH PASSES THRU THIS AFTERNOON. CARRIED A LIMITED 20 POP
ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A
TREND TOWARD PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASED MIXING. OUTSIDE OF NRN GREENS INTO NERN VT...MOST
SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO +6 TO +7C
THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS
NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG
04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS 38-39F
IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS (INCLUDING KSLK).

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z BEFORE SKIES BECOME CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...12Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR.
LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 281350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
950 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY BRINGING FALL-LIKE STRATOCUMULUS TO THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HIGHS 65 TO 75 FOR MOST TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 745 AM THURSDAY...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SWD
ACROSS EASTERN VT AND NH AT 11Z WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD THIS
MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND UPSTREAM
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
NWLY WINDS ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING. NW
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS 14-22Z. SHOULD
GENERALLY SEE DEW POINTS FALLING THRU THE 50S AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN FROM THE NW AS WELL. THE NAM AND LOCAL BTV 4KM AND 12KM WRF
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL INTO
NERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER VORT AND UPPER LEVEL
JET...WHICH PASSES THRU THIS AFTERNOON. CARRIED A LIMITED 20 POP
ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A
TREND TOWARD PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASED MIXING. OUTSIDE OF NRN GREENS INTO NERN VT...MOST
SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO +6 TO +7C
THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS
NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG
04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS 38-39F
IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS (INCLUDING KSLK).

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z BEFORE SKIES BECOME CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...12Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR.
LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 281344
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
944 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR TO OPEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 944 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS BUILDING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF STRATOCU CLOUDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...IT WILL BE A RAIN FREE AND PLEASANT
LATE AUGUST DAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS...AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE 50S...THANKS TO
LESS HUMID AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA.

H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE OVER ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING THIS MORNING. DEEP
MIXING AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND THE DEPARTING CRISTOBAL OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP IT BREEZY TODAY WITH NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES.

HIGH TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFSMOS VALUES WITH
MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILL TOWNS
AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN OVER NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE
WITH 40S TO L50S. SOME U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF
HAMILTON COUNTY.

FRIDAY...MORE GREAT LATE AUGUST WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE
U40S TO L50S. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT DEEP MIXING. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU...BUT WITH LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U60S TO M70S OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW U70S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...BUT SOME CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE UPPER
MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS WILL NOT BE NOT AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MORE CLOUDS THEN SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WITH AN INCREASING S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS MAY CAUSE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TIED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL START TO BECOME MORE HUMID...BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS...AND EVEN NAM TRENDS MOST OF
THIS DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S ARE EXPECTED
ON THE FIRST THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.

DURING THE EVENING...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE SW
H500 FLOW...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SRN
VT...ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY
SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS SRN CANADA INTO
MONDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL
GENERALLY BE BTWN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL WHERE
LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AFT 08Z AND AT KPSF
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFT 08Z TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH
GENERALLY P6SM SCT040-060 CONDS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING DAYTIME
TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH SKC CONDITIONS AFT
00Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY
NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. LABOR
DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
VERY HEAVY DEW FORMATION. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TODAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY LABOR DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 281344
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
944 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR TO OPEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 944 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS BUILDING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF STRATOCU CLOUDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...IT WILL BE A RAIN FREE AND PLEASANT
LATE AUGUST DAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS...AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE 50S...THANKS TO
LESS HUMID AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA.

H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE OVER ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING THIS MORNING. DEEP
MIXING AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND THE DEPARTING CRISTOBAL OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP IT BREEZY TODAY WITH NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES.

HIGH TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFSMOS VALUES WITH
MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILL TOWNS
AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN OVER NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE
WITH 40S TO L50S. SOME U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF
HAMILTON COUNTY.

FRIDAY...MORE GREAT LATE AUGUST WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE
U40S TO L50S. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT DEEP MIXING. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU...BUT WITH LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U60S TO M70S OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW U70S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...BUT SOME CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE UPPER
MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS WILL NOT BE NOT AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MORE CLOUDS THEN SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WITH AN INCREASING S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS MAY CAUSE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TIED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL START TO BECOME MORE HUMID...BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS...AND EVEN NAM TRENDS MOST OF
THIS DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S ARE EXPECTED
ON THE FIRST THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.

DURING THE EVENING...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE SW
H500 FLOW...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SRN
VT...ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY
SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS SRN CANADA INTO
MONDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL
GENERALLY BE BTWN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL WHERE
LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AFT 08Z AND AT KPSF
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFT 08Z TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH
GENERALLY P6SM SCT040-060 CONDS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING DAYTIME
TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH SKC CONDITIONS AFT
00Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY
NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. LABOR
DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
VERY HEAVY DEW FORMATION. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TODAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY LABOR DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SWD ACROSS EASTERN VT AND NH AT 11Z
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD THIS MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND UPSTREAM SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE NWLY WINDS ONCE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING. NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE
EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS 14-22Z. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DEW POINTS
FALLING THRU THE 50S AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW AS WELL.
THE NAM AND LOCAL BTV 4KM AND 12KM WRF MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH
A SECONDARY UPPER VORT AND UPPER LEVEL JET...WHICH PASSES THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. CARRIED A LIMITED 20 POP ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A TREND TOWARD PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING. OUTSIDE OF NRN
GREENS INTO NERN VT...MOST SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS.
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO +6 TO +7C THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT VALLEY
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS
NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG
04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS 38-39F
IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS (INCLUDING KSLK).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z BEFORE SKIES BECOME CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...12Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR.
LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 281148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SWD ACROSS EASTERN VT AND NH AT 11Z
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD THIS MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND UPSTREAM SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE NWLY WINDS ONCE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING. NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE
EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS 14-22Z. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DEW POINTS
FALLING THRU THE 50S AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW AS WELL.
THE NAM AND LOCAL BTV 4KM AND 12KM WRF MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH
A SECONDARY UPPER VORT AND UPPER LEVEL JET...WHICH PASSES THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. CARRIED A LIMITED 20 POP ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A TREND TOWARD PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING. OUTSIDE OF NRN
GREENS INTO NERN VT...MOST SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS.
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO +6 TO +7C THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT VALLEY
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS
NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG
04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS 38-39F
IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS (INCLUDING KSLK).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z BEFORE SKIES BECOME CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...12Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR.
LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 281148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SWD ACROSS EASTERN VT AND NH AT 11Z
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD THIS MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND UPSTREAM SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE NWLY WINDS ONCE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING. NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE
EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS 14-22Z. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DEW POINTS
FALLING THRU THE 50S AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW AS WELL.
THE NAM AND LOCAL BTV 4KM AND 12KM WRF MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH
A SECONDARY UPPER VORT AND UPPER LEVEL JET...WHICH PASSES THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. CARRIED A LIMITED 20 POP ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A TREND TOWARD PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING. OUTSIDE OF NRN
GREENS INTO NERN VT...MOST SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS.
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO +6 TO +7C THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT VALLEY
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS
NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG
04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS 38-39F
IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS (INCLUDING KSLK).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z BEFORE SKIES BECOME CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...12Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR.
LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 281148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SWD ACROSS EASTERN VT AND NH AT 11Z
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD THIS MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND UPSTREAM SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE NWLY WINDS ONCE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING. NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE
EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS 14-22Z. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DEW POINTS
FALLING THRU THE 50S AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW AS WELL.
THE NAM AND LOCAL BTV 4KM AND 12KM WRF MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH
A SECONDARY UPPER VORT AND UPPER LEVEL JET...WHICH PASSES THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. CARRIED A LIMITED 20 POP ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A TREND TOWARD PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING. OUTSIDE OF NRN
GREENS INTO NERN VT...MOST SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS.
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO +6 TO +7C THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT VALLEY
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS
NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG
04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS 38-39F
IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS (INCLUDING KSLK).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z BEFORE SKIES BECOME CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...12Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR.
LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 281136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SWD ACROSS VT AT 07Z WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EWD THIS MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND
UPSTREAM SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE NWLY WINDS ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS
MORNING. NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS
14-22Z. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DEW POINTS FALLING THRU THE 50S AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW AS WELL. THE NAM AND LOCAL BTV 4KM
AND 12KM WRF MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER VORT
WHICH PASSES THRU THIS AFTERNOON. CARRIED A LIMITED 20 POP ACROSS
THESE AREAS FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DAYTIME WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF NRN GREENS INTO
NERN VT...MOST SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO +6 TO +7C THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS
NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG
04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS 38-39F
IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS (INCLUDING KSLK).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z BEFORE SKIES BECOME CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...12Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR.
LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SWD ACROSS VT AT 07Z WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EWD THIS MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND
UPSTREAM SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE NWLY WINDS ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS
MORNING. NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS
14-22Z. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DEW POINTS FALLING THRU THE 50S AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW AS WELL. THE NAM AND LOCAL BTV 4KM
AND 12KM WRF MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER VORT
WHICH PASSES THRU THIS AFTERNOON. CARRIED A LIMITED 20 POP ACROSS
THESE AREAS FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DAYTIME WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF NRN GREENS INTO
NERN VT...MOST SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO +6 TO +7C THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS
NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG
04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS 38-39F
IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS (INCLUDING KSLK).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z BEFORE SKIES BECOME CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...12Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR.
LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH






000
FXUS61 KALY 281042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR TO OPEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 642 AM EDT...PLEASANT AND DRY LATE AUGUST WX CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING
DOWNSTREAM OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
IN FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING WILL PROMOTE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE CLOUD
OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...SRN
GREENS...BERKSHIRES...AND LITCHFIELD HILL SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING.

H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE OVER ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING THIS MORNING. DEEP
MIXING AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND THE DEPARTING CRISTOBAL OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP IT BREEZY TODAY WITH NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES.

HIGH TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFSMOS VALUES WITH
MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILL TOWNS
AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN OVER NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE
WITH 40S TO L50S. SOME U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF
HAMILTON COUNTY.

FRIDAY...MORE GREAT LATE AUGUST WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE
U40S TO L50S. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT DEEP MIXING. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU...BUT WITH LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U60S TO M70S OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW U70S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...BUT SOME CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE UPPER
MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS WILL NOT BE NOT AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MORE CLOUDS THEN SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WITH AN INCREASING S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS MAY CAUSE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TIED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL START TO BECOME MORE HUMID...BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS...AND EVEN NAM TRENDS MOST OF
THIS DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S ARE EXPECTED
ON THE FIRST THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.

DURING THE EVENING...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE SW
H500 FLOW...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SRN
VT...ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY
SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS SRN CANADA INTO
MONDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL
GENERALLY BE BTWN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL WHERE
LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AFT 08Z AND AT KPSF
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFT 08Z TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH
GENERALLY P6SM SCT040-060 CONDS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING DAYTIME
TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH SKC CONDITIONS AFT
00Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY
NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. LABOR
DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
VERY HEAVY DEW FORMATION. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TODAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY LABOR DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR TO OPEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 642 AM EDT...PLEASANT AND DRY LATE AUGUST WX CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING
DOWNSTREAM OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
IN FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING WILL PROMOTE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE CLOUD
OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...SRN
GREENS...BERKSHIRES...AND LITCHFIELD HILL SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING.

H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE OVER ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING THIS MORNING. DEEP
MIXING AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND THE DEPARTING CRISTOBAL OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP IT BREEZY TODAY WITH NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES.

HIGH TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFSMOS VALUES WITH
MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILL TOWNS
AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN OVER NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE
WITH 40S TO L50S. SOME U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF
HAMILTON COUNTY.

FRIDAY...MORE GREAT LATE AUGUST WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE
U40S TO L50S. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT DEEP MIXING. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU...BUT WITH LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U60S TO M70S OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW U70S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...BUT SOME CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE UPPER
MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS WILL NOT BE NOT AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MORE CLOUDS THEN SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WITH AN INCREASING S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS MAY CAUSE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TIED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL START TO BECOME MORE HUMID...BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS...AND EVEN NAM TRENDS MOST OF
THIS DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S ARE EXPECTED
ON THE FIRST THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.

DURING THE EVENING...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE SW
H500 FLOW...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SRN
VT...ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY
SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS SRN CANADA INTO
MONDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL
GENERALLY BE BTWN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL WHERE
LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AFT 08Z AND AT KPSF
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFT 08Z TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH
GENERALLY P6SM SCT040-060 CONDS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING DAYTIME
TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH SKC CONDITIONS AFT
00Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY
NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. LABOR
DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
VERY HEAVY DEW FORMATION. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TODAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY LABOR DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR TO OPEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 642 AM EDT...PLEASANT AND DRY LATE AUGUST WX CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING
DOWNSTREAM OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
IN FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING WILL PROMOTE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE CLOUD
OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...SRN
GREENS...BERKSHIRES...AND LITCHFIELD HILL SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING.

H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE OVER ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING THIS MORNING. DEEP
MIXING AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND THE DEPARTING CRISTOBAL OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP IT BREEZY TODAY WITH NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES.

HIGH TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFSMOS VALUES WITH
MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILL TOWNS
AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN OVER NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE
WITH 40S TO L50S. SOME U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF
HAMILTON COUNTY.

FRIDAY...MORE GREAT LATE AUGUST WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE
U40S TO L50S. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT DEEP MIXING. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU...BUT WITH LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U60S TO M70S OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW U70S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...BUT SOME CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE UPPER
MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS WILL NOT BE NOT AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MORE CLOUDS THEN SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WITH AN INCREASING S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS MAY CAUSE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TIED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL START TO BECOME MORE HUMID...BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS...AND EVEN NAM TRENDS MOST OF
THIS DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S ARE EXPECTED
ON THE FIRST THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.

DURING THE EVENING...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE SW
H500 FLOW...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SRN
VT...ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY
SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS SRN CANADA INTO
MONDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL
GENERALLY BE BTWN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL WHERE
LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AFT 08Z AND AT KPSF
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFT 08Z TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH
GENERALLY P6SM SCT040-060 CONDS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING DAYTIME
TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH SKC CONDITIONS AFT
00Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY
NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. LABOR
DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
VERY HEAVY DEW FORMATION. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TODAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY LABOR DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR TO OPEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 642 AM EDT...PLEASANT AND DRY LATE AUGUST WX CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING
DOWNSTREAM OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
IN FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING WILL PROMOTE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE CLOUD
OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...SRN
GREENS...BERKSHIRES...AND LITCHFIELD HILL SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING.

H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE OVER ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING THIS MORNING. DEEP
MIXING AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND THE DEPARTING CRISTOBAL OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP IT BREEZY TODAY WITH NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES.

HIGH TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFSMOS VALUES WITH
MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILL TOWNS
AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN OVER NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE
WITH 40S TO L50S. SOME U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF
HAMILTON COUNTY.

FRIDAY...MORE GREAT LATE AUGUST WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE
U40S TO L50S. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT DEEP MIXING. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU...BUT WITH LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U60S TO M70S OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW U70S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...BUT SOME CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE UPPER
MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS WILL NOT BE NOT AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MORE CLOUDS THEN SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WITH AN INCREASING S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS MAY CAUSE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TIED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL START TO BECOME MORE HUMID...BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS...AND EVEN NAM TRENDS MOST OF
THIS DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S ARE EXPECTED
ON THE FIRST THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.

DURING THE EVENING...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE SW
H500 FLOW...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SRN
VT...ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY
SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS SRN CANADA INTO
MONDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL
GENERALLY BE BTWN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL WHERE
LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AFT 08Z AND AT KPSF
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFT 08Z TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH
GENERALLY P6SM SCT040-060 CONDS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING DAYTIME
TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH SKC CONDITIONS AFT
00Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY
NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. LABOR
DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
VERY HEAVY DEW FORMATION. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TODAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY LABOR DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 280757
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR TO OPEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT...PLEASANT AND DRY LATE AUGUST WX CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING
DOWNSTREAM OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
IN FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING WILL PROMOTE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE OVER ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING THIS MORNING. DEEP
MIXING AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND THE DEPARTING CRISTOBAL WILL KEEP IT BREEZY TODAY
WITH NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE
ERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES.

HIGH TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFSMOS VALUES WITH
MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILL TOWNS
AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN OVER NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE
WITH 40S TO L50S. SOME U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF
HAMILTON COUNTY.

FRIDAY...MORE GREAT LATE AUGUST WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE
U40S TO L50S. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT DEEP MIXING. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU...BUT WITH LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U60S TO M70S OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW U70S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...BUT SOME CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE UPPER
MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS WILL NOT BE NOT AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MORE CLOUDS THEN SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WITH AN INCREASING S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS MAY CAUSE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TIED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL START TO BECOME MORE HUMID...BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS...AND EVEN NAM TRENDS MOST OF
THIS DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S ARE EXPECTED
ON THE FIRST THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.

DURING THE EVENING...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE SW
H500 FLOW...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SRN
VT...ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY
SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS SRN CANADA INTO
MONDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL
GENERALLY BE BTWN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL
WHERE IFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME BTWN 08Z AND 11Z THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR PSBL AGAIN THIS EVENING AFT 03Z.

OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR EXCEPT AT KGFL.
CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT AND BKN 150-200 KFT.
DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE OUT FOG EXCEPT AT KGFL. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO VRB03KT BY
10Z.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING DAYTIME TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH
SKC CONDITIONS AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEK WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
VERY HEAVY DEW FORMATION. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TODAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY LABOR DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KBTV 280754
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
354 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SWD ACROSS VT AT 07Z WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EWD THIS MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND
UPSTREAM SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE NWLY WINDS ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS
MORNING. NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS
14-22Z. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DEWPOINTS FALLING THRU THE 50S AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW AS WELL. THE NAM AND LOCAL BTV 4KM
AND 12KM WRF MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER VORT
WHICH PASSES THRU THIS AFTERNOON. CARRIED A LIMITED 20 POP ACROSS
THESE AREAS FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DAYTIME WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF NRN GREENS INTO
NERN VT...MOST SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO +6 TO +7C THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS
NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG
04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS 38-39F
IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS (INCLUDING KSLK).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN
3500 AND 5000 FEET...MAINLY THROUGH 00Z...BEFORE SKIES BECOME
CLEAR FOR ALL AREAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...06Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KBTV 280754
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
354 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SWD ACROSS VT AT 07Z WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EWD THIS MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND
UPSTREAM SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE NWLY WINDS ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS
MORNING. NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS
14-22Z. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DEWPOINTS FALLING THRU THE 50S AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW AS WELL. THE NAM AND LOCAL BTV 4KM
AND 12KM WRF MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER VORT
WHICH PASSES THRU THIS AFTERNOON. CARRIED A LIMITED 20 POP ACROSS
THESE AREAS FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DAYTIME WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF NRN GREENS INTO
NERN VT...MOST SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO +6 TO +7C THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS
NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG
04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS 38-39F
IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS (INCLUDING KSLK).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN
3500 AND 5000 FEET...MAINLY THROUGH 00Z...BEFORE SKIES BECOME
CLEAR FOR ALL AREAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...06Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KBTV 280754
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
354 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SWD ACROSS VT AT 07Z WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EWD THIS MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND
UPSTREAM SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE NWLY WINDS ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS
MORNING. NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS
14-22Z. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DEWPOINTS FALLING THRU THE 50S AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW AS WELL. THE NAM AND LOCAL BTV 4KM
AND 12KM WRF MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER VORT
WHICH PASSES THRU THIS AFTERNOON. CARRIED A LIMITED 20 POP ACROSS
THESE AREAS FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DAYTIME WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF NRN GREENS INTO
NERN VT...MOST SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO +6 TO +7C THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS
NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG
04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS 38-39F
IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS (INCLUDING KSLK).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN
3500 AND 5000 FEET...MAINLY THROUGH 00Z...BEFORE SKIES BECOME
CLEAR FOR ALL AREAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...06Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KBTV 280754
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
354 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SWD ACROSS VT AT 07Z WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EWD THIS MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND
UPSTREAM SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE NWLY WINDS ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS
MORNING. NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS
14-22Z. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DEWPOINTS FALLING THRU THE 50S AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW AS WELL. THE NAM AND LOCAL BTV 4KM
AND 12KM WRF MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER VORT
WHICH PASSES THRU THIS AFTERNOON. CARRIED A LIMITED 20 POP ACROSS
THESE AREAS FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DAYTIME WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF NRN GREENS INTO
NERN VT...MOST SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO +6 TO +7C THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS
NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG
04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS 38-39F
IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS (INCLUDING KSLK).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN
3500 AND 5000 FEET...MAINLY THROUGH 00Z...BEFORE SKIES BECOME
CLEAR FOR ALL AREAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...06Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KBTV 280529
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 119 AM EDT THURSDAY...SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT HAVE
CLEARED THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY THRU THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE MID-UPR 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE N-NW THRU SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEW POINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN
3500 AND 5000 FEET...MAINLY THROUGH 00Z...BEFORE SKIES BECOME
CLEAR FOR ALL AREAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...06Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 280529
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 119 AM EDT THURSDAY...SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT HAVE
CLEARED THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY THRU THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE MID-UPR 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE N-NW THRU SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEW POINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN
3500 AND 5000 FEET...MAINLY THROUGH 00Z...BEFORE SKIES BECOME
CLEAR FOR ALL AREAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...06Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 280529
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 119 AM EDT THURSDAY...SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT HAVE
CLEARED THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY THRU THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE MID-UPR 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE N-NW THRU SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEW POINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN
3500 AND 5000 FEET...MAINLY THROUGH 00Z...BEFORE SKIES BECOME
CLEAR FOR ALL AREAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...06Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 280529
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 119 AM EDT THURSDAY...SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT HAVE
CLEARED THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY THRU THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE MID-UPR 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE N-NW THRU SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEW POINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN
3500 AND 5000 FEET...MAINLY THROUGH 00Z...BEFORE SKIES BECOME
CLEAR FOR ALL AREAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...06Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH






000
FXUS61 KALY 280523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.  IT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 123 AM EDT...LATEST RAP/RUC40 SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
IS STILL MOVING ACROSS CNTRL-NRN NY. THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
KEEP SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND WEST THIS MORNING. THE SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
5-10 MPH RANGE...EXCEPT SOME DECOUPLING IN THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
AND THE RIVER VALLEY NEAR ERN WINDHAM COUNTY VT LOOKS POSSIBLE.
PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S WITH A FEW U40S IN THE
SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL
WHERE IFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME BTWN 08Z AND 11Z THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR PSBL AGAIN THIS EVENING AFT 03Z.

OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR EXCEPT AT KGFL.
CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT AND BKN 150-200 KFT.
DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE OUT FOG EXCEPT AT KGFL. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO VRB03KT BY
10Z.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING DAYTIME TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH
SKC CONDITIONS AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...WASULA/JPV







000
FXUS61 KALY 280523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.  IT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 123 AM EDT...LATEST RAP/RUC40 SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
IS STILL MOVING ACROSS CNTRL-NRN NY. THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
KEEP SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND WEST THIS MORNING. THE SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
5-10 MPH RANGE...EXCEPT SOME DECOUPLING IN THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
AND THE RIVER VALLEY NEAR ERN WINDHAM COUNTY VT LOOKS POSSIBLE.
PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S WITH A FEW U40S IN THE
SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL
WHERE IFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME BTWN 08Z AND 11Z THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR PSBL AGAIN THIS EVENING AFT 03Z.

OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR EXCEPT AT KGFL.
CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT AND BKN 150-200 KFT.
DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE OUT FOG EXCEPT AT KGFL. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO VRB03KT BY
10Z.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING DAYTIME TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH
SKC CONDITIONS AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...WASULA/JPV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 280522
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
122 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 119 AM EDT THURSDAY...SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT HAVE
CLEARED THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY THRU THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE MID-UPR 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE N-NW THRU SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY A
LOW-MID LEVEL OVERCAST EXPECTED. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THUS...HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF FORECASTS. COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY PREVENT
THE FORMATION OF ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF FORECASTS.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 14Z-18Z
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...00Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 280522
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
122 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 119 AM EDT THURSDAY...SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT HAVE
CLEARED THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY THRU THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE MID-UPR 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE N-NW THRU SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY A
LOW-MID LEVEL OVERCAST EXPECTED. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THUS...HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF FORECASTS. COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY PREVENT
THE FORMATION OF ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF FORECASTS.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 14Z-18Z
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...00Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 280509
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS LAGGING BACK WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AT 10PM LATEST RADAR SHOWING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING
UP. WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM GRIDS AFTER 10PM.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 7PM UPDATE.

4PM ISSUANCE...NEAR TERM... IN THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THIS IS WHERE ANY REAL
INSTABILITY EXISTS...WITH SPC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING A POCKET OF
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A
BAND OF CLOUD COVER MOVED IN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
TENDED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILDUP DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 RANGE. SO...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
ONLY 20-25 KT AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE SEVER THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A ROGUE SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A
DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT SOUTH OF ALBANY EARLY THIS
EVENING WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE EXISTS.

BY SUNSET...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN LATE. EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL
WHERE IFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME BTWN 08Z AND 11Z THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR PSBL AGAIN THIS EVENING AFT 03Z.

OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR EXCEPT AT KGFL.
CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT AND BKN 150-200 KFT.
DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE OUT FOG EXCEPT AT KGFL. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO VRB03KT BY
10Z.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING DAYTIME TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH
SKC CONDITIONS AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV







000
FXUS61 KALY 280509
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS LAGGING BACK WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AT 10PM LATEST RADAR SHOWING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING
UP. WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM GRIDS AFTER 10PM.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 7PM UPDATE.

4PM ISSUANCE...NEAR TERM... IN THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THIS IS WHERE ANY REAL
INSTABILITY EXISTS...WITH SPC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING A POCKET OF
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A
BAND OF CLOUD COVER MOVED IN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
TENDED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILDUP DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 RANGE. SO...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
ONLY 20-25 KT AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE SEVER THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A ROGUE SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A
DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT SOUTH OF ALBANY EARLY THIS
EVENING WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE EXISTS.

BY SUNSET...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN LATE. EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL
WHERE IFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME BTWN 08Z AND 11Z THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR PSBL AGAIN THIS EVENING AFT 03Z.

OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR EXCEPT AT KGFL.
CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT AND BKN 150-200 KFT.
DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE OUT FOG EXCEPT AT KGFL. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO VRB03KT BY
10Z.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING DAYTIME TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH
SKC CONDITIONS AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 280244
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS LAGGING BACK WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AT 10PM LATEST RADAR SHOWING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING
UP. WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM GRIDS AFTER 10PM.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 7PM UPDATE.

4PM ISSUANCE...NEAR TERM... IN THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THIS IS WHERE ANY REAL
INSTABILITY EXISTS...WITH SPC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING A POCKET OF
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A
BAND OF CLOUD COVER MOVED IN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
TENDED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILDUP DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 RANGE. SO...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
ONLY 20-25 KT AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE SEVER THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A ROGUE SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A
DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT SOUTH OF ALBANY EARLY THIS
EVENING WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE EXISTS.

BY SUNSET...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN LATE. EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
STATES.

TONIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR. CEILINGS WILL BE
SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT AND BKN~ 150-200 KFT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD UNTIL
5-6Z. DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT FOG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FOG WOULD BE IN THE AM
HOURS ACROSS KGFL AND KPSF. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE WAS LOW...SO
LEFT IT OUT. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO VRB03KT BY 4-10Z.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING DAYTIME TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 280244
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS LAGGING BACK WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AT 10PM LATEST RADAR SHOWING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING
UP. WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM GRIDS AFTER 10PM.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 7PM UPDATE.

4PM ISSUANCE...NEAR TERM... IN THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THIS IS WHERE ANY REAL
INSTABILITY EXISTS...WITH SPC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING A POCKET OF
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A
BAND OF CLOUD COVER MOVED IN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
TENDED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILDUP DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 RANGE. SO...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
ONLY 20-25 KT AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE SEVER THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A ROGUE SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A
DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT SOUTH OF ALBANY EARLY THIS
EVENING WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE EXISTS.

BY SUNSET...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN LATE. EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
STATES.

TONIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR. CEILINGS WILL BE
SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT AND BKN~ 150-200 KFT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD UNTIL
5-6Z. DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT FOG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FOG WOULD BE IN THE AM
HOURS ACROSS KGFL AND KPSF. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE WAS LOW...SO
LEFT IT OUT. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO VRB03KT BY 4-10Z.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING DAYTIME TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 280244
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS LAGGING BACK WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AT 10PM LATEST RADAR SHOWING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING
UP. WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM GRIDS AFTER 10PM.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 7PM UPDATE.

4PM ISSUANCE...NEAR TERM... IN THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THIS IS WHERE ANY REAL
INSTABILITY EXISTS...WITH SPC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING A POCKET OF
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A
BAND OF CLOUD COVER MOVED IN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
TENDED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILDUP DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 RANGE. SO...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
ONLY 20-25 KT AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE SEVER THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A ROGUE SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A
DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT SOUTH OF ALBANY EARLY THIS
EVENING WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE EXISTS.

BY SUNSET...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN LATE. EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
STATES.

TONIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR. CEILINGS WILL BE
SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT AND BKN~ 150-200 KFT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD UNTIL
5-6Z. DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT FOG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FOG WOULD BE IN THE AM
HOURS ACROSS KGFL AND KPSF. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE WAS LOW...SO
LEFT IT OUT. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO VRB03KT BY 4-10Z.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING DAYTIME TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 280244
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS LAGGING BACK WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AT 10PM LATEST RADAR SHOWING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION BREAKING
UP. WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM GRIDS AFTER 10PM.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 7PM UPDATE.

4PM ISSUANCE...NEAR TERM... IN THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THIS IS WHERE ANY REAL
INSTABILITY EXISTS...WITH SPC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING A POCKET OF
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A
BAND OF CLOUD COVER MOVED IN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
TENDED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILDUP DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 RANGE. SO...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
ONLY 20-25 KT AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE SEVER THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A ROGUE SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A
DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT SOUTH OF ALBANY EARLY THIS
EVENING WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE EXISTS.

BY SUNSET...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN LATE. EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
STATES.

TONIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR. CEILINGS WILL BE
SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT AND BKN~ 150-200 KFT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD UNTIL
5-6Z. DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT FOG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FOG WOULD BE IN THE AM
HOURS ACROSS KGFL AND KPSF. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE WAS LOW...SO
LEFT IT OUT. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO VRB03KT BY 4-10Z.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING DAYTIME TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 280225
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1025 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FEW MORE MINOR UPDATES TO FORECAST
ADJUSTING TEMPS AND SKY TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THIS
TIME. LINE OF SPRINKLES ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN VERMONT
WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR LEAVING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN ITS WAKE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AT THIS HOUR MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPS...SKY...AND POPS/WX
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BTV CWA THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS EVIDENCED BY
SURFACE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WHILE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S
NORTHWESTWARD. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POPPED UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND WHILE
STILL ONGOING ARE GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS THE BTV CWA WILL BE RAIN-
FREE AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPSTREAM
SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH ASSOCIATED WITH POST
FRONTAL TROUGH...SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. LOW WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY A
LOW-MID LEVEL OVERCAST EXPECTED. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THUS...HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF FORECASTS. COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY PREVENT
THE FORMATION OF ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF FORECASTS.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 14Z-18Z
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...00Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 280225
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1025 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FEW MORE MINOR UPDATES TO FORECAST
ADJUSTING TEMPS AND SKY TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THIS
TIME. LINE OF SPRINKLES ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN VERMONT
WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR LEAVING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN ITS WAKE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AT THIS HOUR MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPS...SKY...AND POPS/WX
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BTV CWA THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS EVIDENCED BY
SURFACE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WHILE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S
NORTHWESTWARD. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POPPED UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND WHILE
STILL ONGOING ARE GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS THE BTV CWA WILL BE RAIN-
FREE AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPSTREAM
SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH ASSOCIATED WITH POST
FRONTAL TROUGH...SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. LOW WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY A
LOW-MID LEVEL OVERCAST EXPECTED. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THUS...HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF FORECASTS. COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY PREVENT
THE FORMATION OF ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF FORECASTS.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 14Z-18Z
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...00Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 280004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
804 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LAGGING BACK WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AT 7PM LATEST RADAR SHOWING THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION EXITING
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS IS
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING THIS SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE AND AT MOST BE A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS.
LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN
NYS. AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN...THE SHOWERS
SHOULD START TO FALL APART.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...
IN THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. THIS IS WHERE ANY REAL INSTABILITY EXISTS...WITH SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING A POCKET OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN
THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A BAND OF CLOUD COVER MOVED IN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS TENDED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILDUP
DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 RANGE.
SO...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH
LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KT AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE SEVER THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A ROGUE
SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SOUTH OF ALBANY EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE EXISTS.

BY SUNSET...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN LATE. EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
STATES.

TONIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR. CEILINGS WILL BE
SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT AND BKN~ 150-200 KFT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD UNTIL
5-6Z. DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT FOG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FOG WOULD BE IN THE AM
HOURS ACROSS KGFL AND KPSF. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE WAS LOW...SO
LEFT IT OUT. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO VRB03KT BY 4-10Z.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING DAYTIME TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 280004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
804 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LAGGING BACK WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AT 7PM LATEST RADAR SHOWING THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION EXITING
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS IS
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING THIS SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE AND AT MOST BE A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS.
LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN
NYS. AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN...THE SHOWERS
SHOULD START TO FALL APART.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...
IN THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. THIS IS WHERE ANY REAL INSTABILITY EXISTS...WITH SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING A POCKET OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN
THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A BAND OF CLOUD COVER MOVED IN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS TENDED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILDUP
DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 RANGE.
SO...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH
LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KT AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE SEVER THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A ROGUE
SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SOUTH OF ALBANY EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE EXISTS.

BY SUNSET...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN LATE. EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
STATES.

TONIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR. CEILINGS WILL BE
SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT AND BKN~ 150-200 KFT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD UNTIL
5-6Z. DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT FOG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FOG WOULD BE IN THE AM
HOURS ACROSS KGFL AND KPSF. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE WAS LOW...SO
LEFT IT OUT. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO VRB03KT BY 4-10Z.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING DAYTIME TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 280000
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
800 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AT THIS HOUR MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPS...SKY...AND POPS/WX
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BTV CWA THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS EVIDENCED BY
SURFACE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WHILE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S
NORTHWESTWARD. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POPPED UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND WHILE
STILL ONGOING ARE GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS THE BTV CWA WILL BE RAIN-
FREE AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPSTREAM
SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH ASSOCIATED WITH POST
FRONTAL TROUGH...SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. LOW WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY A
LOW-MID LEVEL OVERCAST EXPECTED. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THUS...HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF FORECASTS. COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY PREVENT
THE FORMATION OF ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF FORECASTS.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 14Z-18Z
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...00Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 280000
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
800 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AT THIS HOUR MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPS...SKY...AND POPS/WX
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BTV CWA THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS EVIDENCED BY
SURFACE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WHILE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S
NORTHWESTWARD. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POPPED UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND WHILE
STILL ONGOING ARE GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS THE BTV CWA WILL BE RAIN-
FREE AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPSTREAM
SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH ASSOCIATED WITH POST
FRONTAL TROUGH...SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. LOW WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY A
LOW-MID LEVEL OVERCAST EXPECTED. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THUS...HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF FORECASTS. COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY PREVENT
THE FORMATION OF ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF FORECASTS.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 14Z-18Z
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...00Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 272335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AT THIS HOUR MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPS...SKY...AND POPS/WX
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BTV CWA THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS EVIDENCED BY
SURFACE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WHILE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S
NORTHWESTWARD. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POPPED UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND WHILE
STILL ONGOING ARE GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS THE BTV CWA WILL BE RAIN-
FREE AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPSTREAM
SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH ASSOCIATED WITH POST
FRONTAL TROUGH...SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. LOW WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LOOKING LIKE VFR PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME BUBBLING DAYTIME CUMULUS WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT, BUT
FROM A TAF PERSPECTIVE ALL THE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, THOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MID-
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH WIND AND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY
PATCHY FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SO THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS MPV AND SLK
ONCE AGAIN FALLING TO 1/2SM IN FOG, FEEL THAT WON`T HAPPEN. COULD
SEE THE FOG INSTEAD BE TURNED INTO A BRIEF MVFR STRATUS DECK.
WITH THE SMALL LAKES ADJACENT TO SLK, I COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES ALSO DEVELOPING THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MY
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH WITH WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH
REGARD TO FOG AT THOSE LOCATIONS. IT`S ALWAYS A TOUGH FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, AFTER 13Z OR SO, IF THERE IS ANY FOG IT WILL DISSIPATE
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS PERHAPS
GUSTING 15-20KTS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THU-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 272335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AT THIS HOUR MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPS...SKY...AND POPS/WX
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BTV CWA THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS EVIDENCED BY
SURFACE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WHILE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S
NORTHWESTWARD. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POPPED UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND WHILE
STILL ONGOING ARE GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS THE BTV CWA WILL BE RAIN-
FREE AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPSTREAM
SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH ASSOCIATED WITH POST
FRONTAL TROUGH...SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. LOW WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LOOKING LIKE VFR PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME BUBBLING DAYTIME CUMULUS WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT, BUT
FROM A TAF PERSPECTIVE ALL THE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, THOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MID-
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH WIND AND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY
PATCHY FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SO THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS MPV AND SLK
ONCE AGAIN FALLING TO 1/2SM IN FOG, FEEL THAT WON`T HAPPEN. COULD
SEE THE FOG INSTEAD BE TURNED INTO A BRIEF MVFR STRATUS DECK.
WITH THE SMALL LAKES ADJACENT TO SLK, I COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES ALSO DEVELOPING THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MY
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH WITH WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH
REGARD TO FOG AT THOSE LOCATIONS. IT`S ALWAYS A TOUGH FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, AFTER 13Z OR SO, IF THERE IS ANY FOG IT WILL DISSIPATE
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS PERHAPS
GUSTING 15-20KTS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THU-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 272335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AT THIS HOUR MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPS...SKY...AND POPS/WX
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BTV CWA THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS EVIDENCED BY
SURFACE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WHILE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S
NORTHWESTWARD. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POPPED UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND WHILE
STILL ONGOING ARE GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS THE BTV CWA WILL BE RAIN-
FREE AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPSTREAM
SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH ASSOCIATED WITH POST
FRONTAL TROUGH...SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. LOW WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LOOKING LIKE VFR PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME BUBBLING DAYTIME CUMULUS WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT, BUT
FROM A TAF PERSPECTIVE ALL THE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, THOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MID-
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH WIND AND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY
PATCHY FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SO THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS MPV AND SLK
ONCE AGAIN FALLING TO 1/2SM IN FOG, FEEL THAT WON`T HAPPEN. COULD
SEE THE FOG INSTEAD BE TURNED INTO A BRIEF MVFR STRATUS DECK.
WITH THE SMALL LAKES ADJACENT TO SLK, I COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES ALSO DEVELOPING THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MY
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH WITH WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH
REGARD TO FOG AT THOSE LOCATIONS. IT`S ALWAYS A TOUGH FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, AFTER 13Z OR SO, IF THERE IS ANY FOG IT WILL DISSIPATE
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS PERHAPS
GUSTING 15-20KTS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THU-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 272335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AT THIS HOUR MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPS...SKY...AND POPS/WX
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BTV CWA THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS EVIDENCED BY
SURFACE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WHILE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S
NORTHWESTWARD. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POPPED UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND WHILE
STILL ONGOING ARE GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS THE BTV CWA WILL BE RAIN-
FREE AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPSTREAM
SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH ASSOCIATED WITH POST
FRONTAL TROUGH...SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. LOW WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LOOKING LIKE VFR PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME BUBBLING DAYTIME CUMULUS WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT, BUT
FROM A TAF PERSPECTIVE ALL THE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, THOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MID-
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH WIND AND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY
PATCHY FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SO THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS MPV AND SLK
ONCE AGAIN FALLING TO 1/2SM IN FOG, FEEL THAT WON`T HAPPEN. COULD
SEE THE FOG INSTEAD BE TURNED INTO A BRIEF MVFR STRATUS DECK.
WITH THE SMALL LAKES ADJACENT TO SLK, I COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES ALSO DEVELOPING THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MY
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH WITH WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH
REGARD TO FOG AT THOSE LOCATIONS. IT`S ALWAYS A TOUGH FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, AFTER 13Z OR SO, IF THERE IS ANY FOG IT WILL DISSIPATE
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS PERHAPS
GUSTING 15-20KTS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THU-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 272051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
451 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LAGGING BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

IN THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. THIS IS WHERE ANY REAL INSTABILITY EXISTS...WITH SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING A POCKET OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN
THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A BAND OF CLOUD COVER MOVED IN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS TENDED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILDUP
DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 RANGE.
SO...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH
LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KT AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE SEVER THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A ROGUE
SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SOUTH OF ALBANY EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE EXISTS.

BY SUNSET...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN LATE. EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...ANY ACTIVITY ALONG
THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AT
KGFL...AS FRONT IS JUST ABOUT THROUGH THERE...BUT WILL MENTION A
VCSH FOR KALB/KPSF FOR THIS AFTN...AND KPOU FOR LATE THIS
AFTN/THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWER LOOKS TO BE RATHER BRIEF...AND WILL
HAVE A MINIMAL EFFECT ON OVERALL VSBYS/CIGS. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT AROUND 5-10 KTS.

OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS...BKN CIGS OF 4-6 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE.
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO A PORTION OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. DUE TO THE CLOUDS REMAINING
AROUND...IT MAY BE TOUGH FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. IF IT CLEAR OUT FAST ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE AT
KGFL/KPSF...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. W-NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...JUST SOME SCT DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING DAYTIME MIXING TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV







000
FXUS61 KALY 272051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
451 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LAGGING BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

IN THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. THIS IS WHERE ANY REAL INSTABILITY EXISTS...WITH SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING A POCKET OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN
THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A BAND OF CLOUD COVER MOVED IN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS TENDED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILDUP
DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 RANGE.
SO...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH
LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KT AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE SEVER THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A ROGUE
SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SOUTH OF ALBANY EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE EXISTS.

BY SUNSET...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN LATE. EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...ANY ACTIVITY ALONG
THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AT
KGFL...AS FRONT IS JUST ABOUT THROUGH THERE...BUT WILL MENTION A
VCSH FOR KALB/KPSF FOR THIS AFTN...AND KPOU FOR LATE THIS
AFTN/THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWER LOOKS TO BE RATHER BRIEF...AND WILL
HAVE A MINIMAL EFFECT ON OVERALL VSBYS/CIGS. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT AROUND 5-10 KTS.

OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS...BKN CIGS OF 4-6 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE.
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO A PORTION OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. DUE TO THE CLOUDS REMAINING
AROUND...IT MAY BE TOUGH FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. IF IT CLEAR OUT FAST ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE AT
KGFL/KPSF...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. W-NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...JUST SOME SCT DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING DAYTIME MIXING TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 272031
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
431 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LAGGING BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...WHICH
SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE
AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

IN THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. THIS IS WHERE ANY REAL INSTABILITY EXISTS...WITH SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING A POCKET OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN
THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A BAND OF CLOUD COVER MOVED IN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS TENDED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILDUP
DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 RANGE.
SO...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH
LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KT AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE SEVER THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A ROGUE
SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SOUTH OF ALBANY EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE EXISTS.

BY SUNSET...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN LATE. EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...ANY ACTIVITY ALONG
THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AT
KGFL...AS FRONT IS JUST ABOUT THROUGH THERE...BUT WILL MENTION A
VCSH FOR KALB/KPSF FOR THIS AFTN...AND KPOU FOR LATE THIS
AFTN/THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWER LOOKS TO BE RATHER BRIEF...AND WILL
HAVE A MINIMAL EFFECT ON OVERALL VSBYS/CIGS. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT AROUND 5-10 KTS.

OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS...BKN CIGS OF 4-6 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE.
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO A PORTION OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. DUE TO THE CLOUDS REMAINING
AROUND...IT MAY BE TOUGH FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. IF IT CLEAR OUT FAST ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE AT
KGFL/KPSF...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. W-NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...JUST SOME SCT DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING DAYTIME MIXING TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 272031
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
431 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LAGGING BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...WHICH
SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE
AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

IN THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. THIS IS WHERE ANY REAL INSTABILITY EXISTS...WITH SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING A POCKET OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN
THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A BAND OF CLOUD COVER MOVED IN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS TENDED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILDUP
DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 RANGE.
SO...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH
LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KT AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE SEVER THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A ROGUE
SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SOUTH OF ALBANY EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE EXISTS.

BY SUNSET...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN LATE. EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...ANY ACTIVITY ALONG
THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AT
KGFL...AS FRONT IS JUST ABOUT THROUGH THERE...BUT WILL MENTION A
VCSH FOR KALB/KPSF FOR THIS AFTN...AND KPOU FOR LATE THIS
AFTN/THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWER LOOKS TO BE RATHER BRIEF...AND WILL
HAVE A MINIMAL EFFECT ON OVERALL VSBYS/CIGS. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT AROUND 5-10 KTS.

OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS...BKN CIGS OF 4-6 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE.
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO A PORTION OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. DUE TO THE CLOUDS REMAINING
AROUND...IT MAY BE TOUGH FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. IF IT CLEAR OUT FAST ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE AT
KGFL/KPSF...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. W-NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...JUST SOME SCT DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING DAYTIME MIXING TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271950
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEWPOINTS STEADY OR DECREASING
ACROSS NRN NY...RANGING FROM THE M50S TO L60S. A POST FRONTAL
TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE THE THE SLV...AS UPSTREAM OBS ARE NOT SHOWING PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND. BUT DECREASING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL
ERODE ANY SHOWERS IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

LOOKING DOWNSTREAM...MOST OF VT CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S...WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO N/NW CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
CENTRAL INTO SRN VT. SOME INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE U60S- L70S IN CENTRAL/SRN VT...RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING BUT
AS NW FLOW TAKES HOLD AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...EXPECT MOSTLY
DRY NIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH POST FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL KEEP CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS UPPER TROUGH IS STILL AFFECTING THE REGION.

MORNING MIN TEMPS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH COLDEST AREA BEING THE ADKS IN THE L40S. ELSEWHERE
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LOOKING LIKE VFR PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME BUBBLING DAYTIME CUMULUS WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT, BUT
FROM A TAF PERSPECTIVE ALL THE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, THOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MID-
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH WIND AND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY
PATCHY FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SO THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS MPV AND SLK
ONCE AGAIN FALLING TO 1/2SM IN FOG, FEEL THAT WON`T HAPPEN. COULD
SEE THE FOG INSTEAD BE TURNED INTO A BRIEF MVFR STRATUS DECK.
WITH THE SMALL LAKES ADJACENT TO SLK, I COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES ALSO DEVELOPING THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MY
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH WITH WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH
REGARD TO FOG AT THOSE LOCATIONS. IT`S ALWAYS A TOUGH FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, AFTER 13Z OR SO, IF THERE IS ANY FOG IT WILL DISSIPATE
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS PERHAPS
GUSTING 15-20KTS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THU-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH












000
FXUS61 KBTV 271950
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEWPOINTS STEADY OR DECREASING
ACROSS NRN NY...RANGING FROM THE M50S TO L60S. A POST FRONTAL
TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE THE THE SLV...AS UPSTREAM OBS ARE NOT SHOWING PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND. BUT DECREASING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL
ERODE ANY SHOWERS IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

LOOKING DOWNSTREAM...MOST OF VT CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S...WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO N/NW CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
CENTRAL INTO SRN VT. SOME INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE U60S- L70S IN CENTRAL/SRN VT...RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING BUT
AS NW FLOW TAKES HOLD AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...EXPECT MOSTLY
DRY NIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH POST FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL KEEP CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS UPPER TROUGH IS STILL AFFECTING THE REGION.

MORNING MIN TEMPS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH COLDEST AREA BEING THE ADKS IN THE L40S. ELSEWHERE
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LOOKING LIKE VFR PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME BUBBLING DAYTIME CUMULUS WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT, BUT
FROM A TAF PERSPECTIVE ALL THE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, THOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MID-
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH WIND AND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY
PATCHY FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SO THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS MPV AND SLK
ONCE AGAIN FALLING TO 1/2SM IN FOG, FEEL THAT WON`T HAPPEN. COULD
SEE THE FOG INSTEAD BE TURNED INTO A BRIEF MVFR STRATUS DECK.
WITH THE SMALL LAKES ADJACENT TO SLK, I COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES ALSO DEVELOPING THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MY
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH WITH WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH
REGARD TO FOG AT THOSE LOCATIONS. IT`S ALWAYS A TOUGH FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, AFTER 13Z OR SO, IF THERE IS ANY FOG IT WILL DISSIPATE
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS PERHAPS
GUSTING 15-20KTS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THU-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH













000
FXUS61 KBTV 271920
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
320 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NW/N WINDS REACHING THE CPV.
DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL TO NRN CPV ARE IN THE 60S...WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CPV AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SRN VT...DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED 70F. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND OVER THE MORE HUMID AREAS ARE HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS
AT BAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLGT-LOW CHC. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAINOUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND PRIOR
RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE BORDER,
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR
T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM <20% DOWN
IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO
ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB TEMPERATURES UP
AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S, BUT WITH
CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S. THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN THE
30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF SUPPORTING
STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS POINT,
THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS GETTING
INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAINOUT, BUT WORTHY
OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD HAVE
THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND
WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR POPS, SHOWING
30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS
THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT 850MB, BUT HOW
MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN GET. STILL LOOKS
LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF MODELS, SO
HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LOOKING LIKE VFR PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME BUBBLING DAYTIME CUMULUS WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT, BUT
FROM A TAF PERSPECTIVE ALL THE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, THOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MID-
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH WIND AND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY
PATCHY FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SO THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS MPV AND SLK
ONCE AGAIN FALLING TO 1/2SM IN FOG, FEEL THAT WON`T HAPPEN. COULD
SEE THE FOG INSTEAD BE TURNED INTO A BRIEF MVFR STRATUS DECK. WITH
THE SMALL LAKES ADJACENT TO SLK, I COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES ALSO DEVELOPING THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MY CONFIDENCE
IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH WITH WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH REGARD TO FOG
AT THOSE LOCATIONS. IT`S ALWAYS A TOUGH FORECAST. OTHERWISE, AFTER
13Z OR SO, IF THERE IS ANY FOG IT WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING BEHIND
VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS PERHAPS GUSTING 15-20KTS
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THU-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 271920
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
320 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NW/N WINDS REACHING THE CPV.
DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL TO NRN CPV ARE IN THE 60S...WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CPV AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SRN VT...DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED 70F. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND OVER THE MORE HUMID AREAS ARE HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS
AT BAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLGT-LOW CHC. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAINOUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND PRIOR
RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE BORDER,
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR
T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM <20% DOWN
IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO
ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB TEMPERATURES UP
AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S, BUT WITH
CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S. THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN THE
30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF SUPPORTING
STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS POINT,
THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS GETTING
INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAINOUT, BUT WORTHY
OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD HAVE
THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND
WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR POPS, SHOWING
30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS
THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT 850MB, BUT HOW
MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN GET. STILL LOOKS
LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF MODELS, SO
HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LOOKING LIKE VFR PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME BUBBLING DAYTIME CUMULUS WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT, BUT
FROM A TAF PERSPECTIVE ALL THE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, THOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MID-
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH WIND AND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY
PATCHY FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SO THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS MPV AND SLK
ONCE AGAIN FALLING TO 1/2SM IN FOG, FEEL THAT WON`T HAPPEN. COULD
SEE THE FOG INSTEAD BE TURNED INTO A BRIEF MVFR STRATUS DECK. WITH
THE SMALL LAKES ADJACENT TO SLK, I COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES ALSO DEVELOPING THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MY CONFIDENCE
IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH WITH WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH REGARD TO FOG
AT THOSE LOCATIONS. IT`S ALWAYS A TOUGH FORECAST. OTHERWISE, AFTER
13Z OR SO, IF THERE IS ANY FOG IT WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING BEHIND
VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS PERHAPS GUSTING 15-20KTS
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THU-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 271748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 142 PM EDT...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. A RATHER THICK BAND OF
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAVE PROGRESSED JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...COMPLETELY ENVELOPING THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND MOHAWK
VALLEY. SO THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION SEEMS TO HAVE DIMINISH FOR
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
TO THE WEST AND 17Z SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A RESPECTABLE
AMOUNT OF CIN IN THIS AREA. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AROUND
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE CAPITAL AND
SARATOGA REGION SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES FOCUSED
SOUTH OF ALBANY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTHEAST 3/4 OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AGAIN THE
BEST CHANCE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE THE SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR AREA IN A /SEE TEXT/ FOR SVR STORMS...WITH ONLY A 5 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS. IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET WIDESPREAD
SVR STORMS TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER LIMITED
INSTABILITY...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF
SHEAR...BUT A ROGUE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES NY LATE IN
THE DAY. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AREAS OF FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FA LATE AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THE FA
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND BE LOCATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
AT NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY STAYING NORTH OF THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME SHIFTS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND WPC GUIDANCE IN THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW POTENTIALLY BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  THIS SHIFT WILL
ALLOW DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC TO BUILD IN MORE OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND STALL A COLD FRONT FROM GETTING THROUGH BY
LABOR DAY.

SATURDAY STILL FEATURES A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FCST AREA WITH A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  MUCH OF THIS DAY MAY END UP DRY WITH
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINING UPSTREAM.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FLIP FLOPPING ON THIS DAY WITH IT BEING WET ON THE PREVIOUS
RUN...AND NOW DRY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST GFS AND CAN GGEM FOR A DRY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SFC DEWPTS RISE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID60S.  A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE CANADIAN NY BORDER...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND NRN
NEW ENGLAND MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT.  AGAIN...LOW CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE
TRENDS OF THE STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE
FCST AREA...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY...AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ALLUDED TO...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE AIR
MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.50 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CONVECTION INITIALLY WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT AS THIS
SHORT-WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR IN
PLACE.  H850 TEMPS IN THE +16C TO +18C RANGE WITH SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY WITH SOME U80S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS IN
THE M70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  IT WILL BE
A MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE U50S TO M60S.  LABOR DAY IS
TRICKY WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE FRONT BUCKLING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
NORTH.  THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A WEAK SFC TROUGH MAY MIGRATE THROUGH DURING LATE PM AND EARLY
EVENING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW BRIEFLY.  HIGHS LABOR DAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 70S TO L80S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH SUMMER-LIKE HUMIDITY
LEVELS PERSISTING.  TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...ANY ACTIVITY ALONG
THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AT
KGFL...AS FRONT IS JUST ABOUT THROUGH THERE...BUT WILL MENTION A
VCSH FOR KALB/KPSF FOR THIS AFTN...AND KPOU FOR LATE THIS
AFTN/THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWER LOOKS TO BE RATHER BRIEF...AND WILL
HAVE A MINIMAL EFFECT ON OVERALL VSBYS/CIGS. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT AROUND 5-10 KTS.

OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS...BKN CIGS OF 4-6 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE.
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO A PORTION OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. DUE TO THE CLOUDS REMAINING
AROUND...IT MAY BE TOUGH FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. IF IT CLEAR OUT FAST ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE AT
KGFL/KPSF...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TEH TAF AT THIS TIME. W-NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...JUST SOME SCT DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING DAYTIME MIXING TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AFTN TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. IT WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HSA...WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 271748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 142 PM EDT...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. A RATHER THICK BAND OF
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAVE PROGRESSED JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...COMPLETELY ENVELOPING THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND MOHAWK
VALLEY. SO THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION SEEMS TO HAVE DIMINISH FOR
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
TO THE WEST AND 17Z SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A RESPECTABLE
AMOUNT OF CIN IN THIS AREA. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AROUND
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE CAPITAL AND
SARATOGA REGION SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES FOCUSED
SOUTH OF ALBANY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTHEAST 3/4 OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AGAIN THE
BEST CHANCE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE THE SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR AREA IN A /SEE TEXT/ FOR SVR STORMS...WITH ONLY A 5 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS. IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET WIDESPREAD
SVR STORMS TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER LIMITED
INSTABILITY...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF
SHEAR...BUT A ROGUE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES NY LATE IN
THE DAY. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AREAS OF FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FA LATE AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THE FA
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND BE LOCATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
AT NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY STAYING NORTH OF THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME SHIFTS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND WPC GUIDANCE IN THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW POTENTIALLY BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  THIS SHIFT WILL
ALLOW DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC TO BUILD IN MORE OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND STALL A COLD FRONT FROM GETTING THROUGH BY
LABOR DAY.

SATURDAY STILL FEATURES A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FCST AREA WITH A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  MUCH OF THIS DAY MAY END UP DRY WITH
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINING UPSTREAM.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FLIP FLOPPING ON THIS DAY WITH IT BEING WET ON THE PREVIOUS
RUN...AND NOW DRY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST GFS AND CAN GGEM FOR A DRY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SFC DEWPTS RISE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID60S.  A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE CANADIAN NY BORDER...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND NRN
NEW ENGLAND MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT.  AGAIN...LOW CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE
TRENDS OF THE STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE
FCST AREA...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY...AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ALLUDED TO...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE AIR
MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.50 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CONVECTION INITIALLY WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT AS THIS
SHORT-WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR IN
PLACE.  H850 TEMPS IN THE +16C TO +18C RANGE WITH SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY WITH SOME U80S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS IN
THE M70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  IT WILL BE
A MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE U50S TO M60S.  LABOR DAY IS
TRICKY WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE FRONT BUCKLING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
NORTH.  THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A WEAK SFC TROUGH MAY MIGRATE THROUGH DURING LATE PM AND EARLY
EVENING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW BRIEFLY.  HIGHS LABOR DAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 70S TO L80S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH SUMMER-LIKE HUMIDITY
LEVELS PERSISTING.  TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...ANY ACTIVITY ALONG
THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AT
KGFL...AS FRONT IS JUST ABOUT THROUGH THERE...BUT WILL MENTION A
VCSH FOR KALB/KPSF FOR THIS AFTN...AND KPOU FOR LATE THIS
AFTN/THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWER LOOKS TO BE RATHER BRIEF...AND WILL
HAVE A MINIMAL EFFECT ON OVERALL VSBYS/CIGS. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT AROUND 5-10 KTS.

OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS...BKN CIGS OF 4-6 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE.
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO A PORTION OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. DUE TO THE CLOUDS REMAINING
AROUND...IT MAY BE TOUGH FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. IF IT CLEAR OUT FAST ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE AT
KGFL/KPSF...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TEH TAF AT THIS TIME. W-NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...JUST SOME SCT DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING DAYTIME MIXING TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AFTN TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. IT WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HSA...WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KBTV 271745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
145 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NW/N WINDS REACHING THE CPV.
DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL TO NRN CPV ARE IN THE 60S...WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CPV AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SRN VT...DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED 70F. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND OVER THE MORE HUMID AREAS ARE HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS
AT BAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLGT-LOW CHC. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LOOKING LIKE VFR PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME BUBBLING DAYTIME CUMULUS WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT, BUT
FROM A TAF PERSPECTIVE ALL THE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, THOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MID-
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH WIND AND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY
PATCHY FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SO THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS MPV AND SLK
ONCE AGAIN FALLING TO 1/2SM IN FOG, FEEL THAT WON`T HAPPEN. COULD
SEE THE FOG INSTEAD BE TURNED INTO A BRIEF MVFR STRATUS DECK. WITH
THE SMALL LAKES ADJACENT TO SLK, I COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES ALSO DEVELOPING THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MY CONFIDENCE
IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH WITH WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH REGARD TO FOG
AT THOSE LOCATIONS. IT`S ALWAYS A TOUGH FORECAST. OTHERWISE, AFTER
13Z OR SO, IF THERE IS ANY FOG IT WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING BEHIND
VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS PERHAPS GUSTING 15-20KTS
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THU-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 271745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
145 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NW/N WINDS REACHING THE CPV.
DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL TO NRN CPV ARE IN THE 60S...WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CPV AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SRN VT...DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED 70F. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND OVER THE MORE HUMID AREAS ARE HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS
AT BAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLGT-LOW CHC. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LOOKING LIKE VFR PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME BUBBLING DAYTIME CUMULUS WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT, BUT
FROM A TAF PERSPECTIVE ALL THE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, THOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MID-
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH WIND AND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY
PATCHY FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SO THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS MPV AND SLK
ONCE AGAIN FALLING TO 1/2SM IN FOG, FEEL THAT WON`T HAPPEN. COULD
SEE THE FOG INSTEAD BE TURNED INTO A BRIEF MVFR STRATUS DECK. WITH
THE SMALL LAKES ADJACENT TO SLK, I COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES ALSO DEVELOPING THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MY CONFIDENCE
IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH WITH WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH REGARD TO FOG
AT THOSE LOCATIONS. IT`S ALWAYS A TOUGH FORECAST. OTHERWISE, AFTER
13Z OR SO, IF THERE IS ANY FOG IT WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING BEHIND
VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS PERHAPS GUSTING 15-20KTS
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THU-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 271742
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 142 PM EDT...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. A RATHER THICK BAND OF
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAVE PROGRESSED JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...COMPLETELY ENVELOPING THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND MOHAWK
VALLEY. SO THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION SEEMS TO HAVE DIMINISH FOR
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
TO THE WEST AND 17Z SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A RESPECTABLE
AMOUNT OF CIN IN THIS AREA. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AROUND
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE CAPITAL AND
SARATOGA REGION SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES FOCUSED
SOUTH OF ALBANY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTHEAST 3/4 OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AGAIN THE
BEST CHANCE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE THE SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR AREA IN A /SEE TEXT/ FOR SVR STORMS...WITH ONLY A 5 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS. IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET WIDESPREAD
SVR STORMS TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER LIMITED
INSTABILITY...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF
SHEAR...BUT A ROGUE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES NY LATE IN
THE DAY. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AREAS OF FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FA LATE AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THE FA
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND BE LOCATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
AT NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY STAYING NORTH OF THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME SHIFTS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND WPC GUIDANCE IN THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW POTENTIALLY BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  THIS SHIFT WILL
ALLOW DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC TO BUILD IN MORE OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND STALL A COLD FRONT FROM GETTING THROUGH BY
LABOR DAY.

SATURDAY STILL FEATURES A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FCST AREA WITH A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  MUCH OF THIS DAY MAY END UP DRY WITH
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINING UPSTREAM.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FLIP FLOPPING ON THIS DAY WITH IT BEING WET ON THE PREVIOUS
RUN...AND NOW DRY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST GFS AND CAN GGEM FOR A DRY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SFC DEWPTS RISE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID60S.  A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE CANADIAN NY BORDER...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND NRN
NEW ENGLAND MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT.  AGAIN...LOW CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE
TRENDS OF THE STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE
FCST AREA...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY...AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ALLUDED TO...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE AIR
MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.50 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CONVECTION INITIALLY WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT AS THIS
SHORT-WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR IN
PLACE.  H850 TEMPS IN THE +16C TO +18C RANGE WITH SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY WITH SOME U80S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS IN
THE M70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  IT WILL BE
A MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE U50S TO M60S.  LABOR DAY IS
TRICKY WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE FRONT BUCKLING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
NORTH.  THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A WEAK SFC TROUGH MAY MIGRATE THROUGH DURING LATE PM AND EARLY
EVENING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW BRIEFLY.  HIGHS LABOR DAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 70S TO L80S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH SUMMER-LIKE HUMIDITY
LEVELS PERSISTING.  TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AND WILL BRING ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PARTS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KALB AND KPOU.
MID AND  HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BTWN
12Z-15Z FOR ALL THE TAF SITES. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 4-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH ANY SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRAS. VCSH GROUPS
WERE USED AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF BTWN 17Z-22Z FOR POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD
MAYBE SCT SHRAS OR ISOLD TSRAS. THE PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY THE MID TO LATE PM. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND THE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TOWARDS 00Z/THU WITH JUST SOME SCT-BKN MID OR HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB.

SOME IFR/LIFR MIST/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE SFC. THE BEST CHC FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN IS AFTER 06Z/THU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 4-8 KTS PRIOR TO
NOONTIME..BEFORE SHIFTING TO W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS IN THE LATE
PM...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM SHORTLY AFTER 00Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. IT WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HSA...WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 271742
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 142 PM EDT...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. A RATHER THICK BAND OF
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAVE PROGRESSED JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...COMPLETELY ENVELOPING THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND MOHAWK
VALLEY. SO THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION SEEMS TO HAVE DIMINISH FOR
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
TO THE WEST AND 17Z SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A RESPECTABLE
AMOUNT OF CIN IN THIS AREA. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AROUND
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE CAPITAL AND
SARATOGA REGION SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES FOCUSED
SOUTH OF ALBANY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTHEAST 3/4 OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AGAIN THE
BEST CHANCE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE THE SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR AREA IN A /SEE TEXT/ FOR SVR STORMS...WITH ONLY A 5 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS. IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET WIDESPREAD
SVR STORMS TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER LIMITED
INSTABILITY...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF
SHEAR...BUT A ROGUE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES NY LATE IN
THE DAY. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AREAS OF FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FA LATE AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THE FA
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND BE LOCATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
AT NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY STAYING NORTH OF THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME SHIFTS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND WPC GUIDANCE IN THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW POTENTIALLY BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  THIS SHIFT WILL
ALLOW DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC TO BUILD IN MORE OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND STALL A COLD FRONT FROM GETTING THROUGH BY
LABOR DAY.

SATURDAY STILL FEATURES A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FCST AREA WITH A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  MUCH OF THIS DAY MAY END UP DRY WITH
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINING UPSTREAM.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FLIP FLOPPING ON THIS DAY WITH IT BEING WET ON THE PREVIOUS
RUN...AND NOW DRY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST GFS AND CAN GGEM FOR A DRY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SFC DEWPTS RISE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID60S.  A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE CANADIAN NY BORDER...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND NRN
NEW ENGLAND MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT.  AGAIN...LOW CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE
TRENDS OF THE STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE
FCST AREA...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY...AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ALLUDED TO...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE AIR
MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.50 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CONVECTION INITIALLY WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT AS THIS
SHORT-WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR IN
PLACE.  H850 TEMPS IN THE +16C TO +18C RANGE WITH SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY WITH SOME U80S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS IN
THE M70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  IT WILL BE
A MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE U50S TO M60S.  LABOR DAY IS
TRICKY WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE FRONT BUCKLING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
NORTH.  THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A WEAK SFC TROUGH MAY MIGRATE THROUGH DURING LATE PM AND EARLY
EVENING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW BRIEFLY.  HIGHS LABOR DAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 70S TO L80S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH SUMMER-LIKE HUMIDITY
LEVELS PERSISTING.  TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AND WILL BRING ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PARTS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KALB AND KPOU.
MID AND  HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BTWN
12Z-15Z FOR ALL THE TAF SITES. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 4-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH ANY SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRAS. VCSH GROUPS
WERE USED AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF BTWN 17Z-22Z FOR POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD
MAYBE SCT SHRAS OR ISOLD TSRAS. THE PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY THE MID TO LATE PM. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND THE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TOWARDS 00Z/THU WITH JUST SOME SCT-BKN MID OR HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB.

SOME IFR/LIFR MIST/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE SFC. THE BEST CHC FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN IS AFTER 06Z/THU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 4-8 KTS PRIOR TO
NOONTIME..BEFORE SHIFTING TO W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS IN THE LATE
PM...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM SHORTLY AFTER 00Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. IT WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HSA...WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KBTV 271732
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NW/N WINDS REACHING THE CPV.
DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL TO NRN CPV ARE IN THE 60S...WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CPV AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SRN VT...DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED 70F. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND OVER THE MORE HUMID AREAS ARE HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS
AT BAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLGT-LOW CHC. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT THE VERMONT TAF
SITES...12Z TO 15Z AT BTV...12Z TO 21Z AT MPV...AND THEN 15Z TO 00Z
AT RUT WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH FOR NOW. RAIN THREAT HAS MAINLY ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. OTHERWISE...SOME LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH 16Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER
TODAY. THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY CREATE SOME LOWER
OROGRAPHIC- ENHANCED STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME
MVFR CEILIINGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. WIDESPREAD FOG NOT ANTICIPATED
WITH DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THU-06Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

06Z SAT-00Z MON: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271732
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NW/N WINDS REACHING THE CPV.
DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL TO NRN CPV ARE IN THE 60S...WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CPV AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SRN VT...DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED 70F. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND OVER THE MORE HUMID AREAS ARE HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS
AT BAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLGT-LOW CHC. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT THE VERMONT TAF
SITES...12Z TO 15Z AT BTV...12Z TO 21Z AT MPV...AND THEN 15Z TO 00Z
AT RUT WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH FOR NOW. RAIN THREAT HAS MAINLY ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. OTHERWISE...SOME LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH 16Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER
TODAY. THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY CREATE SOME LOWER
OROGRAPHIC- ENHANCED STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME
MVFR CEILIINGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. WIDESPREAD FOG NOT ANTICIPATED
WITH DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THU-06Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

06Z SAT-00Z MON: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271732
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NW/N WINDS REACHING THE CPV.
DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL TO NRN CPV ARE IN THE 60S...WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CPV AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SRN VT...DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED 70F. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND OVER THE MORE HUMID AREAS ARE HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS
AT BAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLGT-LOW CHC. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT THE VERMONT TAF
SITES...12Z TO 15Z AT BTV...12Z TO 21Z AT MPV...AND THEN 15Z TO 00Z
AT RUT WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH FOR NOW. RAIN THREAT HAS MAINLY ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. OTHERWISE...SOME LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH 16Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER
TODAY. THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY CREATE SOME LOWER
OROGRAPHIC- ENHANCED STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME
MVFR CEILIINGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. WIDESPREAD FOG NOT ANTICIPATED
WITH DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THU-06Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

06Z SAT-00Z MON: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271732
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NW/N WINDS REACHING THE CPV.
DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL TO NRN CPV ARE IN THE 60S...WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CPV AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SRN VT...DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED 70F. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND OVER THE MORE HUMID AREAS ARE HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS
AT BAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLGT-LOW CHC. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT THE VERMONT TAF
SITES...12Z TO 15Z AT BTV...12Z TO 21Z AT MPV...AND THEN 15Z TO 00Z
AT RUT WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH FOR NOW. RAIN THREAT HAS MAINLY ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. OTHERWISE...SOME LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH 16Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER
TODAY. THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY CREATE SOME LOWER
OROGRAPHIC- ENHANCED STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME
MVFR CEILIINGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. WIDESPREAD FOG NOT ANTICIPATED
WITH DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THU-06Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

06Z SAT-00Z MON: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271451
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1051 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1051 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY MORNING
WITH VERY LITTLE ON RADAR THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED W/NW
IN THE SLV...BUT REMAIN SW OVER THE ADKS AS FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE
SEWD OVER NRN NY. AS FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SEWD TODAY...EXPECT
THERE TO BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ESP WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN SERN VT WITH MOST
SUNSHINE THERE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHWEST VERMONT BY MIDDAY...AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE
LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING
TO GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. MOISTURE LIMITED
HOWEVER AND TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOESN`T ARRIVE TILL WELL
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO AROUND 30
PERCENT. MAX TEMP FORECAST A TRICKY ONE...AS FORECAST AREA WILL
BE UNDER GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING
FROM 14-16C THIS MORNING TO 11-14C BY THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 80S
ACROSS VALLEYS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT THE VERMONT TAF
SITES...12Z TO 15Z AT BTV...12Z TO 21Z AT MPV...AND THEN 15Z TO 00Z
AT RUT WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH FOR NOW. RAIN THREAT HAS MAINLY ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. OTHERWISE...SOME LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH 16Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER
TODAY. THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY CREATE SOME LOWER
OROGRAPHIC- ENHANCED STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME
MVFR CEILIINGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. WIDESPREAD FOG NOT ANTICIPATED
WITH DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THU-06Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

06Z SAT-00Z MON: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 271451
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1051 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1051 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY MORNING
WITH VERY LITTLE ON RADAR THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED W/NW
IN THE SLV...BUT REMAIN SW OVER THE ADKS AS FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE
SEWD OVER NRN NY. AS FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SEWD TODAY...EXPECT
THERE TO BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ESP WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN SERN VT WITH MOST
SUNSHINE THERE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHWEST VERMONT BY MIDDAY...AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE
LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING
TO GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. MOISTURE LIMITED
HOWEVER AND TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOESN`T ARRIVE TILL WELL
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO AROUND 30
PERCENT. MAX TEMP FORECAST A TRICKY ONE...AS FORECAST AREA WILL
BE UNDER GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING
FROM 14-16C THIS MORNING TO 11-14C BY THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 80S
ACROSS VALLEYS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT THE VERMONT TAF
SITES...12Z TO 15Z AT BTV...12Z TO 21Z AT MPV...AND THEN 15Z TO 00Z
AT RUT WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH FOR NOW. RAIN THREAT HAS MAINLY ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. OTHERWISE...SOME LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH 16Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER
TODAY. THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY CREATE SOME LOWER
OROGRAPHIC- ENHANCED STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME
MVFR CEILIINGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. WIDESPREAD FOG NOT ANTICIPATED
WITH DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THU-06Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

06Z SAT-00Z MON: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 271451
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1051 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1051 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY MORNING
WITH VERY LITTLE ON RADAR THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED W/NW
IN THE SLV...BUT REMAIN SW OVER THE ADKS AS FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE
SEWD OVER NRN NY. AS FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SEWD TODAY...EXPECT
THERE TO BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ESP WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN SERN VT WITH MOST
SUNSHINE THERE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHWEST VERMONT BY MIDDAY...AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE
LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING
TO GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. MOISTURE LIMITED
HOWEVER AND TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOESN`T ARRIVE TILL WELL
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO AROUND 30
PERCENT. MAX TEMP FORECAST A TRICKY ONE...AS FORECAST AREA WILL
BE UNDER GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING
FROM 14-16C THIS MORNING TO 11-14C BY THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 80S
ACROSS VALLEYS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT THE VERMONT TAF
SITES...12Z TO 15Z AT BTV...12Z TO 21Z AT MPV...AND THEN 15Z TO 00Z
AT RUT WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH FOR NOW. RAIN THREAT HAS MAINLY ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. OTHERWISE...SOME LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH 16Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER
TODAY. THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY CREATE SOME LOWER
OROGRAPHIC- ENHANCED STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME
MVFR CEILIINGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. WIDESPREAD FOG NOT ANTICIPATED
WITH DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THU-06Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

06Z SAT-00Z MON: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 271451
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1051 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1051 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY MORNING
WITH VERY LITTLE ON RADAR THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED W/NW
IN THE SLV...BUT REMAIN SW OVER THE ADKS AS FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE
SEWD OVER NRN NY. AS FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SEWD TODAY...EXPECT
THERE TO BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ESP WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN SERN VT WITH MOST
SUNSHINE THERE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHWEST VERMONT BY MIDDAY...AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE
LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING
TO GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. MOISTURE LIMITED
HOWEVER AND TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOESN`T ARRIVE TILL WELL
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO AROUND 30
PERCENT. MAX TEMP FORECAST A TRICKY ONE...AS FORECAST AREA WILL
BE UNDER GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING
FROM 14-16C THIS MORNING TO 11-14C BY THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 80S
ACROSS VALLEYS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT THE VERMONT TAF
SITES...12Z TO 15Z AT BTV...12Z TO 21Z AT MPV...AND THEN 15Z TO 00Z
AT RUT WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH FOR NOW. RAIN THREAT HAS MAINLY ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. OTHERWISE...SOME LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH 16Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER
TODAY. THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY CREATE SOME LOWER
OROGRAPHIC- ENHANCED STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME
MVFR CEILIINGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. WIDESPREAD FOG NOT ANTICIPATED
WITH DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THU-06Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

06Z SAT-00Z MON: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KALY 271415
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM WESTERN
NEW YORK TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS
THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING. A BAND OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY ARE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION
AS WELL.

NOT ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE INSTABILITY.
SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE 500-1000 J/KG TODAY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS PLACED THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
AREA IN A /SEE TEXT/ FOR SVR STORMS...WITH A 5% PROBABILITY OF
DAMAGING WINDS. IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET WIDESPREAD SVR STORMS TODAY
DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF SHEAR...BUT A ROGUE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES NY LATE IN
THE DAY. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AREAS OF FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FA LATE AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THE FA
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND BE LOCATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
AT NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY STAYING NORTH OF THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME SHIFTS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND WPC GUIDANCE IN THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW POTENTIALLY BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  THIS SHIFT WILL
ALLOW DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC TO BUILD IN MORE OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND STALL A COLD FRONT FROM GETTING THROUGH BY
LABOR DAY.

SATURDAY STILL FEATURES A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FCST AREA WITH A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  MUCH OF THIS DAY MAY END UP DRY WITH
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINING UPSTREAM.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FLIP FLOPPING ON THIS DAY WITH IT BEING WET ON THE PREVIOUS
RUN...AND NOW DRY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST GFS AND CAN GGEM FOR A DRY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SFC DEWPTS RISE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID60S.  A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE CANADIAN NY BORDER...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND NRN
NEW ENGLAND MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT.  AGAIN...LOW CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE
TRENDS OF THE STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE
FCST AREA...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY...AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ALLUDED TO...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE AIR
MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.50 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CONVECTION INITIALLY WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT AS THIS
SHORT-WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR IN
PLACE.  H850 TEMPS IN THE +16C TO +18C RANGE WITH SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY WITH SOME U80S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS IN
THE M70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  IT WILL BE
A MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE U50S TO M60S.  LABOR DAY IS
TRICKY WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE FRONT BUCKLING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
NORTH.  THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A WEAK SFC TROUGH MAY MIGRATE THROUGH DURING LATE PM AND EARLY
EVENING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW BRIEFLY.  HIGHS LABOR DAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 70S TO L80S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH SUMMER-LIKE HUMIDITY
LEVELS PERSISTING.  TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AND WILL BRING ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PARTS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KALB AND KPOU.
MID AND  HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BTWN
12Z-15Z FOR ALL THE TAF SITES. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 4-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH ANY SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRAS. VCSH GROUPS
WERE USED AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF BTWN 17Z-22Z FOR POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD
MAYBE SCT SHRAS OR ISOLD TSRAS. THE PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY THE MID TO LATE PM. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND THE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TOWARDS 00Z/THU WITH JUST SOME SCT-BKN MID OR HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB.

SOME IFR/LIFR MIST/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE SFC. THE BEST CHC FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN IS AFTER 06Z/THU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 4-8 KTS PRIOR TO
NOONTIME..BEFORE SHIFTING TO W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS IN THE LATE
PM...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM SHORTLY AFTER 00Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. IT WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HSA...WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11








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